Pick Your Power III: A Brave New World
-
-
Sando Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3264
- Joined: March 27, 2009
- Location: Sydney Australia
My apologies, been a busy weekend and won't really have time till tomorrow. Just really checking in.
Forcing someone so low to claim and basically setting up the statement of 'wait for his fake-claim' is stupid. It's pretty much site meta that VTs never get saved, and someone so low is very likely to be VT. This looks a lot like:
1: Start wagon to force claim
2: Get the entirely expected VT response
3: 'Well guys, he claimed VT and we never don't lynch VT'
Also, arguing against a mass-claim and for a singular claim on D1 is pretty rediculous. There's no way to tell from the claim whether they're scum or town, and noone would be stupid enough to fake-claim I think.
I totally agree with Hoopla, you guys failed miserably to try and logically 'break' the game in pre-game, with a strategy that at best got us a minor advantage, and was never going to go close to best.
Giving Parama town-cred for claiming VT on a role that only scum would use is silly btw. It's what a townie should do if they got nilla'd from it, but it doesn't preclude scum in any way.
More tomorrow.-
-
Sando Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3264
- Joined: March 27, 2009
- Location: Sydney Australia
Ok, this seems way too obvious not to have been thought of, but after the signup thread, I'm no longer convinced that everyone would be able to tie their own shoe-laces...
How on earth does claiming on D2 compared to D1 change things for vig? How are they less locked in after having had 1 night to kill?
Basically, a D1 massclaim doesn't really seem to gain us anything over a D2, and gives scum an extra night to plan and kill the PRs.-
-
Sando Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3264
- Joined: March 27, 2009
- Location: Sydney Australia
...I'm advocating the opposite of thatZang wrote:
I agree, I think it would be best for us to claim day 1 or as soon as possible.Sando wrote:Ok, this seems way too obvious not to have been thought of, but after the signup thread, I'm no longer convinced that everyone would be able to tie their own shoe-laces...
How on earth does claiming on D2 compared to D1 change things for vig? How are they less locked in after having had 1 night to kill?
Basically, a D1 massclaim doesn't really seem to gain us anything over a D2, and gives scum an extra night to plan and kill the PRs.-
-
Sando Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3264
- Joined: March 27, 2009
- Location: Sydney Australia
-
-
Sando Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3264
- Joined: March 27, 2009
- Location: Sydney Australia
Sorry what question? You mean why did I choose 7 when I tend to think 5 or lower is the best option? That was because I was under the wrong impression of how the draft worked when I submitted my numbers. I realised later that the second number being chosen by someone else only matters if that person also chose the same first number.
Am I misreading the question?
Not so much throw-away snideness, I just think it's a dick thing to do, to be trying to get the people who disagree with you to do something against the rules. I don't think a town player would do it on purpose, I'm not convinced enough that it was on purpose to call scuminess on it.-
-
Sando Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3264
- Joined: March 27, 2009
- Location: Sydney Australia
Lolwat?Fate wrote:Ok Ellie, but if we don't MC today can you agree there is very little reason to MC D2 or D3?
Diminished returns ftw.
If we don't to it today when scum no jack *** about the setup (no town flips yet), then we might as well not do it until MyLo.
Laces are right out of the equation, clearly...-
-
Sando Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3264
- Joined: March 27, 2009
- Location: Sydney Australia
You do realise that scum also benefit from a massclaim right? They get to find where all the town-PRs are.
It basically comes down to whether scum are benefiting more than town, and whether that ratio changes based on days.
I think scum get more benefit from a D1 claim compared to D2 claim than town get from a D1 claim compared to a D2 claim.-
-
Sando Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3264
- Joined: March 27, 2009
- Location: Sydney Australia
I don't see how scum can ever fake-claim outside of what they have chosen within the scum-group?
I've rethought my view on the Janitor btw. I think we should and can force the Janitor to claim today. First, we tell the Janitor he has to claim. If he does, good, if he's scum he can never use it, if town, well that kinda sucks, but not hugely.
If noone claims, we know scum have it, and we can reasonably assume that a townie tried to get it and didn't. We simply go down the list and ask 'did you choose janitor and get rejected'. First yes and we know scum is above them as Janitor.
Then at a mass-claim, it becomes pretty obvious who's the janitor.
Basically, the scum-janitor can either out themselves and settle for never using it, or almost guarantee their D2 lynch after a MC for 1 nights use of the Janitor ability. Or they can take the risk that literally no townies picked it.
Anyone see any problems?-
-
Sando Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3264
- Joined: March 27, 2009
- Location: Sydney Australia
-
-
Sando Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3264
- Joined: March 27, 2009
- Location: Sydney Australia
-
-
Sando Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3264
- Joined: March 27, 2009
- Location: Sydney Australia
-
-
Sando Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3264
- Joined: March 27, 2009
- Location: Sydney Australia
-
-
Sando Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3264
- Joined: March 27, 2009
- Location: Sydney Australia
Man, these laces are never going to get done up.Porkens wrote:
Right, which means that each scum knew which 4 numbers not to pick. That's 4 less chances to get bumped to the back of the list than each town had.PranaDevil wrote:Not really, they're only more likely to get the #1 pick out of all the scum, they still have zero knowledge on the town's numbers (except for those who rolled in the sign up thread). They're all just as likely to find themselves either beaten by a lucky town player, or lodged alongside a town player (or a pair, or a trio) who picked the same first number as them.
No matter how you talk it, that is just as likely whether they are scum or not,the only thing we know scum could co-ordinate is whether they had the same numbers as another scum member.
Yeah, scum have a better chance of noone else choosing their number. My napkin maths puts each scum at around 31% chance of that. Napkin maths puts Masons at ~25% and Town at ~23.5%. So yes, you're right, scum individually have better odds.
However, there's 3 times as many townies compared to scum... and then you've got masons on top of that...
The top spot is most likely to be a townie. But then I'm pretty sure every slot is most likely to be a townie.
PS, my napkin maths is (14/15)^(number people who could choose the same number). So it's:
Scum = (14/15)^17
Mason = (14/15)^20
Townie = (14/15)^21
This only works out the chance of noone else choosing your number though.-
-
Sando Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3264
- Joined: March 27, 2009
- Location: Sydney Australia
Ok, I'm not responding to simple reasoning without any maths, if you know I'm wrong, and I'm more than willing to accept that I could well be horribly wrong, then show me how. I can't say that I'm fantastic at stats, but I've done Stats 101 and work with stats a fair bit at work.
Also, we know that Scum were number theory'ing this. I've previously stated why a low second number is the best option, yet the top person chose 12 for their second number? Why?
Fate, why are you quoting scum-motivated maths?-
-
Sando Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3264
- Joined: March 27, 2009
- Location: Sydney Australia
Assuming everyone pretty much randomly picks, on average, 5.5 people would be the only one on their numbers. Of these, 3.5 would be town, 1.5 would be scum, and 0.5 would be mason. So town are 266% more likely to be the top spot than scum.Zang wrote:Ok, I never did the math. There are 5 scum and about 10 players that rolled their numbers or revealed their numbers. That let's scum know more than half the numbers so I assumed that scum would have a better chance of getting the #1 spot.-
-
Sando Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3264
- Joined: March 27, 2009
- Location: Sydney Australia
Mason aren't town now?dramonic wrote:
first, 3,5 when compared to 1,5 is 233%Sando wrote:
Assuming everyone pretty much randomly picks, on average, 5.5 people would be the only one on their numbers. Of these, 3.5 would be town, 1.5 would be scum, and 0.5 would be mason. So town are 266% more likely to be the top spot than scum.Zang wrote:Ok, I never did the math. There are 5 scum and about 10 players that rolled their numbers or revealed their numbers. That let's scum know more than half the numbers so I assumed that scum would have a better chance of getting the #1 spot.
second, its clear not everyone randomly picked.-
-
Sando Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3264
- Joined: March 27, 2009
- Location: Sydney Australia
This is taken into account.Pomegranate wrote:But scum's numbers aren't (really) at random- they have the help of knowing the numbers of four other players.
Each scum has a (14/15)^17 chance of noone choosing their number.
Each mason has a (14/15)^20 chance of noone choosing their number.
Each town has a (14/15)^21 chance of noone choosing their number.
Scum - 30.95%
Mason - 25.16%
Town - 23.48%
5 scum x 30.95% = 1.55
2 Mason x 25.16% = 0.5
15 Townie x 23.48 = 3.52
There, you have my complete reasoning. Now can we lynch Fate please.-
-
Sando Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3264
- Joined: March 27, 2009
- Location: Sydney Australia
Nope, I did mean to multiply.
Each townie has a ~23.5% chance of noone else picking their number. As there are 17 townies, there will, on average, be 17x23.5% townies with noone picking their number. Do the same for scum and for mason, you get:
3.5 townies
0.5 masons
1.5 scum
A total of 5.5 people, on average, will have a solo-number, and therefor be ranked at the top.
Of these, 4 are pro-town, so make up ~72.5% of the top ranks, scum therefore make up 27.5%. So there are, when no rounding is done like I just did, 2.66 times as many town as scum in the solo ranks. Therefore town are 2.66 times as likely to get the top spot.-
-
Sando Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3264
- Joined: March 27, 2009
- Location: Sydney Australia
-
-
Sando Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3264
- Joined: March 27, 2009
- Location: Sydney Australia
Oh, I'm not trying to argue with you, you're completely right, there are more scum in the solo-numbers than average, on average.manho wrote: the maths is right, but you need to consider the chance for scum to be in the first spot to the chance of finding scum randomly.
I was merely pointing out that people were wrong in saying that the top spot is more likely to be scum than town. Comparing it to other spots, sure, but town are still nearly 3 times more likely to be in the slot.-
-
Sando Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3264
- Joined: March 27, 2009
- Location: Sydney Australia
-
-
Sando Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3264
- Joined: March 27, 2009
- Location: Sydney Australia
-
-
Sando Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3264
- Joined: March 27, 2009
- Location: Sydney Australia
-
-
Sando Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3264
- Joined: March 27, 2009
- Location: Sydney Australia
-
-
Sando Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3264
- Joined: March 27, 2009
- Location: Sydney Australia
A claim is presumably because you want to know whether someone is a PR worth saving, correct? Soras is 100% a PR. Anyone waiting for and forcing a claim is probably scum. Anyone lynching him knew for sure that they were lynching a PR.12Keyblade wrote:
OK, then just explain the response.Sando wrote:
Where did I ever say he shouldn't claim?12Keyblade wrote:
Same to you. Why don't you want him to claim?Sando wrote:
Hi Scum.Parama wrote:Soras needs to claim a few hours ago.-
-
Sando Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3264
- Joined: March 27, 2009
- Location: Sydney Australia
-
-
Sando Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3264
- Joined: March 27, 2009
- Location: Sydney Australia
-
-
Sando Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3264
- Joined: March 27, 2009
- Location: Sydney Australia
-
-
Sando Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3264
- Joined: March 27, 2009
- Location: Sydney Australia
He merely 'proved' that you shouldn't wait till L-6 to claim.Zang wrote:
well, I agree that you shouldn't wait til L-1 to claim, but I don't support your way of proving it.Parama wrote:
Yup.Zang wrote:
You hammered someone you didn't suspect of scum at all just to prove a point?Parama wrote:But it's something that's generally ignored that I think is stupid.
Don't wait until L-1 for a claim!-
-
Sando Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3264
- Joined: March 27, 2009
- Location: Sydney Australia
-
-
Sando Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3264
- Joined: March 27, 2009
- Location: Sydney Australia
-
-
Sando Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3264
- Joined: March 27, 2009
- Location: Sydney Australia
Do you know what hypocritical means?Parama wrote:
This is hilariously hypocritical.Sando wrote:
Pretty much, I'm not all that unhappy with how it went. Scum tries to force a fairly meaningless claim from a known PR, then quickhammers.Super Awesome Mega Pimp! wrote:Well it's not like a claim would've saved him anyways.
(unless he tried to fakeclaim mason)-
-
Sando Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3264
- Joined: March 27, 2009
- Location: Sydney Australia
-
-
Sando Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3264
- Joined: March 27, 2009
- Location: Sydney Australia
That's not a contradiction in any way. The first statement does not express an opinion either way. You can try and put words in my mouth, but it aint going to work.Parama wrote:Whoops I'm getting players mixed up. 12keyblade was the one yelling at me.
But here's the contradiction I was referring to:
---> Implying you wanted him to claimSando wrote: Where did I ever say he shouldn't claim?
---> Saying you didn't care if he claimed or notSando wrote:Pretty much, I'm not all that unhappy with how it went. Scum tries to force a fairly meaningless claim from a known PR, then quickhammers.
Also agreeing with SAMP's terrible 669 is a scumtell in itself.-
-
Sando Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3264
- Joined: March 27, 2009
- Location: Sydney Australia
-
-
Sando Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3264
- Joined: March 27, 2009
- Location: Sydney Australia
What? Vigs going after lurkers is classic vig. It's exactly how they should play, killing people that are inherantly hard to get lynched and a danger to town, without tying up the towns time.Fate wrote:If the vig is town and shot Budja I'll **** my pants.
COPS take shots in the dark, not vigs.
FFS.
Also the Odd-night vig is obviously scum. Everyone assumes that would be the first choice, so scum picked even-night instead and let the oddnight slide down to Sando/Porkens.-
-
Sando Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3264
- Joined: March 27, 2009
- Location: Sydney Australia
-
-
Sando Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3264
- Joined: March 27, 2009
- Location: Sydney Australia
Other people lurking, and Zang has 3 times as many posts as Budja btw, does not change the fact that Budja wasn't here, didn't really contribute except to vote for 1 person and then unvote.Fate wrote:
Hi scum. Don't apologize for him just yet.Sando wrote:
What? Vigs going after lurkers is classic vig. It's exactly how they should play, killing people that are inherantly hard to get lynched and a danger to town, without tying up the towns time.Fate wrote:If the vig is town and shot Budja I'll **** my pants.
COPS take shots in the dark, not vigs.
FFS.
Also the Odd-night vig is obviously scum. Everyone assumes that would be the first choice, so scum picked even-night instead and let the oddnight slide down to Sando/Porkens.
And Budja was coming back from V/LA. Here are the people a town vig would've vigged in order from most likely to be mislynched to reputable player:
Zoiaum
Zang
mb53 (who?)
Etc. Etc.
Instead they took a shot at a legitimately above-average away player?
HAHA LULZ.-
-
Sando Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3264
- Joined: March 27, 2009
- Location: Sydney Australia
Fun times, I think we should wait till everyone has had a chance to submit their night actions though before lynching. This gets us 2 dead scum PRs, with only 1 town one dead. Town have a fair advantage at the moment, and making sure someone like the doc can submit their protection is fairly important I feel.Pomegranate wrote:
Haha. You also submitted the scumkill on SerialClergyman. Lynch please.Porkens wrote:I'm odd-night vig. I shot Budja in his face for promising the reread. I don't regret it, I'd do it again.
The site is really slow for me ATM. If I don't talk that may be why-
-
Sando Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3264
- Joined: March 27, 2009
- Location: Sydney Australia
-
-
Sando Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3264
- Joined: March 27, 2009
- Location: Sydney Australia
-
-
Sando Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3264
- Joined: March 27, 2009
- Location: Sydney Australia
-
-
Sando Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3264
- Joined: March 27, 2009
- Location: Sydney Australia
-
-
Sando Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3264
- Joined: March 27, 2009
- Location: Sydney Australia
mb53 wrote:Anyone else find it odd that the scummiest people were not on the wagon?##Vote: Mb53
You were lynching guaranteed scum. The people not on the wagon were merely not there because the hammer went down when they weren't on. I explained why I wasn't hammering. You're trying to throw scum points on people when there was literally no reason for scum or town to try and stop the wagon, and scum apparently had reason to force the wagon.
How come Fate appears to be claiming day actions by the way?
The scum having the universal backup would have made them much more willing to lynch Soras I think too.
BTW this weekend is a massive weekend in Aus, so my posting could be sporadic, and it's a 3 day weekend.-
-
Sando Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3264
- Joined: March 27, 2009
- Location: Sydney Australia
My apologies for my absence, ANZAC day basically wiped me out for two days, fun times though.
I'm just re-reading now.
Just some thoughts, I've already brought it up, but how much store do people actually put into a wagon-analysis of the Porkens wagon? It was on guaranteed scum, there was no real reason for scum to stay off it, quite the opposite if they can submit their buddies actions if they're away.
Are we waiting for people to check in for night actions?-
-
Sando Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3264
- Joined: March 27, 2009
- Location: Sydney Australia
-
-
Sando Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3264
- Joined: March 27, 2009
- Location: Sydney Australia
Dram, why would you vig a redirector? And why would a scum-redirector not have redirected away from the person submitting both of the scum kills? Why would you not think that a scum redirector would redirect your kill away to a townie?dramonic wrote:So...
I'm the UBU, now even-night vig.
I shot manho because he was scummy, with a pro-scum role, with requests from multiple players to shoot him down.
In retrospect, I should've shot Prana.
Did I mention he's scum?-
-
Sando Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3264
- Joined: March 27, 2009
- Location: Sydney Australia
-
-
Sando Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3264
- Joined: March 27, 2009
- Location: Sydney Australia
I was under the impression a redirector redirected all the things directed at 'X' to 'Y'? This is my first game with one, am I wrong?Pomegranate wrote:I think you said that if the redirector was scum, (dram though) he would have redirected dram. Am I mistaken?
You seem to be saying they basically change 1 persons target?-
-
Sando Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3264
- Joined: March 27, 2009
- Location: Sydney Australia
-
-
Sando Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3264
- Joined: March 27, 2009
- Location: Sydney Australia
-
-
Sando Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3264
- Joined: March 27, 2009
- Location: Sydney Australia
-
-
Sando Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3264
- Joined: March 27, 2009
- Location: Sydney Australia
-
-
Sando Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3264
- Joined: March 27, 2009
- Location: Sydney Australia
-
-
Sando Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3264
- Joined: March 27, 2009
- Location: Sydney Australia
-
-
Sando Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3264
- Joined: March 27, 2009
- Location: Sydney Australia
-
-
Sando Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3264
- Joined: March 27, 2009
- Location: Sydney Australia
-
-
Sando Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3264
- Joined: March 27, 2009
- Location: Sydney Australia
Having thought about it a bit more, I think that considering the roles, scum were much more likely to want to avoid the MC. Both Vigs would have been directed by town. This does point a bit of a spotlight at the 'nay'ers from D1, including myself, but I think it's necessary.
Fate, you around? I know you want the hammer, can I have it please?-
-
Sando Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3264
- Joined: March 27, 2009
- Location: Sydney Australia
-
-
Sando Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3264
- Joined: March 27, 2009
- Location: Sydney Australia
-
-
Sando Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3264
- Joined: March 27, 2009
- Location: Sydney Australia
-
-
Sando Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3264
- Joined: March 27, 2009
- Location: Sydney Australia