Pick Your Power III: A Brave New World
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
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So, a catalogue of weak, occasional scumtells? That isn't a case - that's you just choosing one person, sifting through their posts and choosing a scumtell that fits. Pick anyone on the playerlist and I'll make a dramonic-style case that rivals the one you put up for sorasgoof, just to prove my point.dramonic wrote:my soras case is ISO 25 if you wanna take a peek-
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Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
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SerialClergyman ISO:dramonic wrote: Soras ISO:
2 is a thinly veiled pseudo-attack on Parama
3 is a heavy backpedal after previous attack (if you think he plays differently, it probably means
his alignment is different)
4-6 is setup speculation
10 is fluff
11 is an attack (which is kinda decent I admit) ended with a... FoS?
12 is AtE
15 sounds like giving up
16-17 is a misrep, though he's not the only on who's done it so that is okay.
Additionally he hasn't put a single vote down since the beginning of the game and really, he's stated no strong opinion on anyone (except SMAP)
I dont hate Sora, I love him for being so obvscum ;P
2-7 is setup speculation
8 calls me town without providing reasoning.Andvotes Pom without reasoning.
9-12 is set-up speculation/fluff.
15-16 is fluff
17 talks Zang into voting Pom - still no reasoning provided.
19 weak suspicion on Sando based on numbers.
21-24 massclaim/set-up speculation
25 buddying to Sando - weird when he questioned him earlier.
26 says soras wagon is decent - again, no reasoning.
28 weak attack
29 another weak attack on Fate
Additionally he has only placed one vote for the whole game, for reasons still unclear. He's even commented on other wagons being decent, yet still holded firm with his weak vote on Pom. Too much fluff and set-up speculation and no real scumhunting, derp derp derp.
See how easy that is?-
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008
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Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008
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Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008
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Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008
Can someone help me complete this list? Am I missing any claims/information here? I think there are a couple of Vanilla claims I'm missing.
Well, look at scum at the top of the tree here. We now know Pomegranate is highly likely to be town, unless this is some sort of ridiculous gambit (sorry Pom, btw). I'd also suggest Sando is quite likely to be town, especially if he can confirm he isn't a Universal Backup, Redirector or Janitor.
It's also quite likely that the Soras' wagon was very town drivenunlessscum has the Universal Backup, which makes a Day 1 bus of one of their best roles a feasible play, as it hides the vig again.
We know the Universal Backup is in play somewhere, and I think the town should decide who to kill with that shot. My opinion is that we should shoot from this chunk of the list;
1,1 manho
3,6 Socrates
3,6 Zoiaum
5,4 Ellibereth
5,15 Drippinggoofball
6,1 superawesomemegapimp
...with a preference for manho, Zoiaum or SAMP.-
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Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008
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Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008
Fate wrote:I'd tell you what you're missing but that would just give scum more info(because you're scum).
Also you missed my daycop softclaim a few pages back, I'm surpised I'm still alive.
That's nice.Cop wrote:Each night you may target a player. If successful, you will get a result of town or mafia.
Also, do you seriously think if I were scum I'd let my team get into this position so early in the game, and choose such roles? I would never take the vigs if I had two top 5 draft picks - there's so many more better role combinations, especially ones safer to a potential massclaim that give more outs.
Whatever claims have been made, there is no way scum don't have it posted up in their daytalking QT. I remember other instances of players forgetting who had claimed/softclaimed - it's in the town's interest for a neatly organised post of critical information. Also, you're a tool.-
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Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008
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Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008
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Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008
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Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
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Interestingly we've whittled down the neighbourhoods (X numbers) to 7, after eliminating the 6's and 1's. So, I think we're almost at the stage where we can guess with a decent amount of accuracy what sort of number combination scum picked. Here are my conclusions;
- At most there is one scum in the 9 group. Zang is very likely to be town, for if he was scum he had no incentive to choose 9, and surely his scumteam would have told him to change if he wasn't paying attention himself.
- Fate rolled 9 and then bailed, changing his number to 7. This is likelier to be a scum move concerned about self interest, rather than upholding something he committed himself to. If true, it paints the 9 group in a townier light.
- At most there is one scum in the 4 group, due to none of them being dice rollers. It is highly likely the last 3 scum are in separate groups.
- If none of the 9's is scum, one of Sando/dramonic or the 7's is highly likely to be scum. This is due to scum quite likely wanting to spread their numbers out, rather than putting them all together. This is also the same reasoning against a dramonic/Sando scumteam because I doubt scum would choose 2, 11, 12, 13 as their numbers. At most they would have chosen two high numbers.
- Socrates probably isn't scum, because I think he wouldn't have gone for both vigs with the high draft picks. He is a dominant character (just look at the sign-up thread), he is very likely to lead his team if he was scum, and I think he genuinely believed massclaim could break the game.
- The gunsmith, whoever that is, is almost certainly town. Scum have no incentive to take gunsmith if they're going for the vigs. It could be a useful role-cop type role if they decided not to take the vigs, but they didn't.
- The janitor not claiming means whoever it is, is scum.
- Scum probably chose at least one (but probably two) of 3, 4, 5 so they had a decent chance of winning the draft.
Here is my scumteam predictions;
One of Sando/dramonic, One of Zoiaum/12Keyblade/Prana (probably Zoiaum). I could see one of DGB/Elli being scum, but I'm not sure about either yet. I also have my eye on the 7's group, but I'm thinking town/town. Parama probably isn't scum, because if everyone above him dies without there being a Janitor, it is curtains for him (unless he is scum with whoever the Janitor is, but I doubt it).
If there is only one point you take away from this post, make it this;
It looks very likely at this point that the remaining scum are on 3 different numbers, and if true, we should be eliminating entire neighbourhoods (ie; single numbers) to minimise the amount of possible scumteams.-
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Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008
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Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
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If either of dramonic/Sando is scum, it really looks like it will be Sando when you compare their individual stances to the sorasgoof wagon.
##Vote: Sando
DGB, there is little point analysing the Porkens wagon when he was confirmed scum. I know there were several players around prepared to vote/hammer Porkens, but it was in the interest of the town to wait for actions to be sent in.-
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Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008
If the last 3 scum are on different numbers (neighbourhoods), it's a smarter town play to eliminate entire neighbourhoods, because players in smaller groups have a higher chance of being scum (barring other information). For the sake of this experiment, lets assume the 3 scum have been randomly allocated to one of the 7 numbers with no overlap. This givesDrippingGoofball wrote:Yeah, the Porkens wagon, not super-informative overall.
Why Sando over Zoiaum?eachgroup a ~43% chance of having a scum in it.
If we look at group 9 (Hoopla, Faraday, mb53, Zang). It has (like every other group) a 43% chance of having scum in it, and if so, each individual player has a 25% chance of being scum within it.
If we look at group 11 (Sando). This group also has the 43% chance of having scum in it, but as opposed to larger groups, only has one player within it, meaning it must be Sando.
The same principle applies to every other group, with the doubles being 43% and then 50% within it, while the triple group being 43% and then 33% within it. It makes sense to lynch from a smaller group, because I don't value my scum-Zoiaum read twice as much as Sando.
Of course, this all operates on the basis that scum have different numbers, but I am quite confident about this.-
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Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008
I think that makes sense, I've never really thought about it that way.DrippingGoofball wrote:To simplify;
The large neighborhoods have a greater likelihood of having scum in them, than the small ones.
This cancels out the dubious benefits of shooting scum in the small barrels of the smaller groups.
I can support a Zoiaum lynch for now. We still need to see what happens with Pom/dramonic though.
##Unvote
##Vote: Zoiaum-
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Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008
I assume you're referencing this DGB.
I'm not taking softclaims seriously from someone potentially scum. There is really little to no point in softclaims from a town perspective - you are signalling you have some sort of power role, which benefits scum more than ambiguous information we have to take his word on does for town.PranaDevil wrote:
Role based. Saying no more until tomorrow when I propose a mass claim to get info from cop/doc as well, and have (one would hope) plenty of confirmed townies thanks to that.Fate wrote:Also Prana, tell me more about this Zoiaum town read.
We have better leads today (Sando/Dram/DGB/Hoopla) personally, and they're a much better direction to go in.-
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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I think it's likely there is 0 or 1 scum in Group 9. Zero is based on me knowing I am town, but from everyone elses perspective 0 or 1 is still a sensible estimation.Parama wrote:
I'm scumhunting. Screw the draft order, scum can still be anywhere on the list.Hoopla wrote:Why take a punt on a 25% chance in Group 9 now?
If you are implying that you think one of the 9-group is scum, Faraday is far and away the most likely scum. Really he's the only one I'd consider for scum right now.
Faraday is probably town.-
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
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Hoopla
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I thought dramonic was probably scum who killed manho, and the Universal backup is his buddy somewhere else down the order. But why would scum improve their chances of being tracked to a kill? They could have just had the vig submit both kills.
I think it's possible dramonic is the scum-vig, and they were worried about the same thing that happened to Porkens, so they spread their kills. Universal Backup doesn't seem like a super pro-town move to me, when you are so high up. There are plenty of other nice roles.-
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Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
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Hoopla
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Dramonic doesn't have a shot tonight, so no, there is no point in that. We either lynch him now, or he lives for two nights. I'm probably in the 'lynch him now camp', because that is just too long to wait for someone with a decent chance of being scum.Pomegranate wrote: I could agree with leaving you alive for one night if it must happen, but not for longer. We can't let you live on until endgame.-
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008
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Hoopla
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So, there has been talk about lynching down the list, because have 5 mislynches up our sleeve before we lose. There has also been talk that I should be the first one to go, or need to go at some stage. If that is the case, I'd rather go first and have a massclaim today to try and clear some more people. Here is what we have so far, I think;
I think at the very least, we can safely assume the Gunsmith is town, because scum have zero interest in taking a gunsmith when they own most of the guns anyway. We can then hopeful clear another 1 or 2 people from this claim, or catch CryMeARiver lying if there is in fact no Gunsmith in this game. We don't know if a cop or role-cop exists, but everyone else should claim their role before the Gunsmith claims it's results. This is to ensure any potential players with guns can't escape a Gunsmith investigation.
I'm not sure what order we should massclaim in, but I think with what we have left, there is a decent chance we can crack the game open now for town.
Other stuff pertaining me (mostly DGB's case) - My adverse reaction to massclaiming early on Day 1 was to prevent this game devolving into a logic puzzle, when scum presumably have the upper hand in this scenario. The only decent argument FOR massclaim I saw was locking scum into claims, which I think would have been significantly outweighed the risks of exposing our most potent roles. Because what you had to remember is if scum were pushing massclaim early, it is possible they chose pro-town roles or unisex roles, and who are you going to lynch? The townies like Socrates/manho who opted to stop the scum getting pro-scum roles. Basically, I didn't trust the town to solve a logic puzzle. And I didn't trust the reasoning for it being pushed, which mostly consisted of locking scum into their roles - that's all well and good, but when roles are independent of alignment, then it doesn't get you very far.
The other major point seems to be me wanting the scum-vig to shoot into a barrel of likely townies, which I appologise for, because that was quite likely a very wrong read on all/most of them. I'm not sure how to defend myself against this piece of play other than it seemed like the likeliest place scum would be at that time. Other players were also open to this plan, but I'll take the heat for endorsing that play.
I also don't know how to defend myself against not being on the Sorasgoof wagon, other than quick wagons based on little reasoning make me quite skeptical. I hope some others can vouch for this, as the exact same thing happened to me in Mafia 109, where I defended a speeding wagon on scum there too. I genuinely didn't see Soras as scummy, really, and to be honest I still don't understand why she was lynched. But that's a bonus, I suppose.
I'm hoping I can make up for my subpar play with helping to craft a game-breaking strategy for us. I know I probably can't be trusted, and probably should be one of our lynches at some point, and I will accept that if we can find a strategy to give us a strong chance of winning.
What does everyone think of a massclaim of some description?-
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Hoopla
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So, you're opposed to massclaim now, DGB?DrippingGoofball wrote:
If we decide we're lynching you, it's not subject to negotiations.Hoopla wrote:So, there has been talk about lynching down the list, because have 5 mislynches up our sleeve before we lose. There has also been talk that I should be the first one to go, or need to go at some stage. If that is the case, I'd rather go first and have a massclaim today to try and clear some more people. Here is what we have so far, I think;?-
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Hoopla
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Okie dokie. But, I'd like to do some negotiating from the grave, though - when I flip town, I put my vote down for massclaim and for DGB to be bumped up the lynching list just behind Keyblade. If I flip scum, feel free to ignore everything.DrippingGoofball wrote:I've already claimed. I'm saying we're not "negotiating" anything with you. You're saying you'd "rather go first" as long as we mass claim.
You're not in the driver's seat.
Also, the watcher is dead DGB. Don't play dumb.-
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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It's also the standard of town having a poor game too - I'm sure you must have had one or two somewhere along the line. But I don't expect you to see purity in my motivations.DrippingGoofball wrote:
Consistently defending scumbags and rounding up the townies for executions... that's my standard of SCUM play.Hoopla wrote:I'm sorry I don't play to your standards DGB.-
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008