Square Enix Mafia I: Diabolus Erus (GAME OVER)

[bill1148]

First... do I know JP from elsewhere?

Second, where does it say "lightning bolt"? It says electrocuted. Which are two different things as far as I'm concerned. So I'm not about to go voting someone based on such flimsy reasoning.

It clearly says "struck by a bolt of lightning." And I fail to see what is "flimsy" about the reasoning, the only electric summon I can think of off the top of my head is Ramuh (though I'm sure there are a few others).

Very valid point.

Unvote, vote: Dramonic

Well, if the lock is stonecold.

vote pranadevil

*sheep votes*

I also don't particulary get the case on Dramonic, but thats mostly because I'm not very familiar with Final Fantasy (except part X). However, I do agree that "Something tells me flavour isn't just flavour in this game." caught my eye as well and at least gave me bad vibes. (thats how you guys call it on this site right?)

Not sure what's so hard to understand about it. The "story" clearly states that a bolt of lightning came down and struck xRECKONERx. dramonic mentions he is Ramuh. Even if, assuming that Prana failed to read the bolt of lightning part, he mentioned it as "flimsy" reasoning. I fail to see how it classifies as "flimsy" compared to voting for Kdub for a reason that is more "flimsy" than the reason mentioned on dramonic.

I would also like to point out this post:

"I have played with both. I know DLA and Iece have also played with ABR in games I modded. Off the top of my head that's all I can remember "

Seems to me that Dramonic is trying to frame DLA and Iece.

What do they call this...the "Composition Fallacy?" You failed to mention that dramonic mentions that he himself has played with xRECKONERx and Albert B. Rampage. Also, there are far too many players here (as far as I can tell) who have played with either xRECKONERx and Albert B. Rampage to draw a reasonable conclusion on who killed them.

Am I now? That's interesting, considering I'm not. Which means you're either really bad scum (you've been here about 6 years, I doubt that), or you're town and have made a right royal pigs ear of something.

So no, I'm not scum, and I don't even think you are, you're town with a role that's giving you false information of some kind.

Not entirely sure what you're hinting with "feeble cat" either, whether it's you or me. But if the thing that I am is a cat, I'm a dinosaur.

I believe they call this the "Appeal to Ridicule" fallacy.

It just feels unnatural to me that you answer that for others (the others just answered that question for themselves).

This is a better answer, probably what you should have said the first time.

Also, I'm going to refer to the flavour again (even though you don't like it) and say electrocuted is in theory logical with Ramuh, however the black tornado really isn't.

Eh...yes, technically. But can you name an electric/tornado oriented ability?

And/or Jesse and/or Barret.

Although the pic clearly represents the Biggs from Final Fantasy VII, Biggs/Wedge are together all the time in various FF's. On top of which, the pic may only be the Biggs from VII because it was easier to find (given that VII is the most popular). It would only be natural that Wedge is his partner.

FACT: your name is the same as a town in FF13.

Oh, and I know almost everything about the flavor, unless it's to do with FF3 or 11

.

Yippe for you.

On the matter on dramonic, assmuing his claim is correct, then he is town. Ramuh has been helpful plotwise in two game. Two Final Fantasy games can't be wrong.

How about suggesting an electric power that is, under your definition, "evil?"

Ramuh,
Quetzalcoatl,
Ixion,
Adrammelech,
Odin(from FF13),
Lightning,
Larxene,

As far as I'm aware XIII's world is not in this game (as Pulse & Cocoon are not mentioned in the OP). So cross Odin off the list.

I find dramonic, Prana, and to a lesser extent, Zodiark the most suspicious. Ultimately, at this point, I'm going to have to

vote Prana.

Whereas in dramonic's case it may just be a bad coincidence that Ramuh = electrocution, Prana has already visibly and definitively shown some ignorance.

[bill1148]

@ Glork

Is the "Blind" status connected in any way to the anonymous lynch vote on you?

---

Vote Count:

Eye Drops, anyone?

PranaDevil: 3

(inHimshallibe, Iecerint, bill1148)

dramonic: 2

(bv310, FC Groningen)

Zodiark13: 1

(Glork, Devotress)

Glork: 2

(Zodiark13)

Iecerint: 1

(KDub)

bv310: 1

(wolframnhart)

wolframnhart: 1

(Nautilus)

Chronopie: 1

(WorseExcuse)

Not Voting:

Antifinity
Chronopie
DarkLightA
dramonic
JPSalazar
killa seven
MehPlusRawr
PranaDevil

Lynch:

11 votes.

Deadline:

May 2nd - 5:40 PM EST

[bill1148]

I'm not to sure what to make of the Iecerint situation myself. Although the "Blind" ability is used numerous times throughout the Final Fantasy universe, "black goop" distinctively means ink. And Ultros the octopus is known for Blind.

Also, I don't understand the argument that

"I know Iece is mafia, but just in case, let's keep him around until we kill another scum."

What are you people going to do if he gains an uber-powerful ability during that time frame? What if tomorrow's night kill says something like "strangled by Tentacles?" If you

know

someone is mafia, you kill them the first chance you get. If you believe Iece is mafia, you lynch him. You don't keep him around, putting other players at risk (including yourselves).

That said, I'm not sold on voting Iece yet. Although his defense isn't that great (Blind is glitched in VI ), there really hasn't been much inconsistency from him. In fact, I'd liken his situation to dramonic's situation earlier in the game (Ramuh = electrocution). The major difference is, "black goop" is far easier to connect to Ultros than electrocution is to Ramuh. And Ultros is obviously more of a "villian" than Ramuh is.

The fact that a handful of players jumped on the Iece bandwagon near simultaneously after "black goop" is mentioned is a bit suspicious.

--

I think we should wait a day or two (until we hit scum).

Therefore

Unvote

I agree with Dram here.

That flavour based defense sounds more like: "Oh shit, I've been rumbled. Think up an excuse."

Re-vote: Iecerint

unvote

vote Chronopie

When you flip-flop, try to be less conspicuous about it.

[bill1148]

The "Reduced to nothing"? Any leads on that?

If it's a summon, then my guess is Bahamut or Typhon.

Also

FOS: SETUP SPECULATORS

To broad. That would include at least half a dozen players, and that is under a strict definition of "Setup Speculation."


I don't like the fact that Zodiark is V/LA for a week, if he's been posting elsewhere. That just makes it an excuse. That said, I'm split between Prana/Iece/Zodiark. I'll make my decision later,

unvote.

@ Kise: Your vote count is slightly off. Zodiark unvoted Glork.

[bill1148]

On the previous page, Glork is shown with 2 votes on him. With Zodiark having voted him (now un-voted though, so the vote count should be at 1).

@ Kise: Also, I think killa seven needs a prod (if you haven't done so already).

Hopefully I didn't miss any of his posts, but his last post was at Mon Apr 12, 2010 7:41 pm

[bill1148]

I be there are tons of scum bunched up in that list. My only town reads there right now are

Devo, Groni, and Yerk

.

Who are these people, specifically? I read that Yerk=Iece, and I'm guessing Devo=Devotress? So who is 'Groni?'

I'm not phrasing this correctly, so I'll try again: He'd dropped lower on the 'To lynch' list, until the AtG, at which point he went back up to #1. Close as I can explain without rambling.

I don't buy this.

The first time, you said that you believed Iece to be mafia, but said that we should wait until we lynch another, different mafia, just to be sure. So you unvoted him.

The second time you re-stated that you believed Iece was mafia, then re-voted for him (after dramonic did). And you've been jumping the BW nearly every time you've voted as far as I can tell.

Observing the vote count (for Zodiark):
Zodiark13: 10 (Devotress, FC Groningen, PranaDevil,

KDub, Chronopie, Iecerint, bv310, Antifinity, wolframnhart

, dramonic, Starbuck)

The ones in bold voted near simultaneously. I always grow suspicious when a BW is started and half a dozen players follow suit quickly. Overall, at this point, of those bolded, excluding Chrono & Iece, I'm fairly neutral on the rest.

My suspicion list is partially dependent on what happens during the Night Phase (and on whether or not Zodiark is Town), but my main suspects include Iece, Prana, and Chrono.

[bill1148]

Someone not named PranaDevil help me out. Does Blind auto-miss, or is there a chance for hit?

Pretty sure it's an auto-miss, Glork voted over like 10 times yesterday, and missed every time.

@Glork
Like I said, the entire post was a joke post, I have no abilities at all, but if you wish to vote me and over exaggerate it then hey, have fun.

A joke that could get you killed.

I find it interesting that there isn't an "anonymous" vote on wolf or any other player for that matter, but that wolf is blind. It's possible that Glork was targetted by either two separate players and/or two separate abilities, but that still doesn't explain the missing anon vote today. Another interesting point, is that no one (to my knowledge) had "Doom" on them yesterday. And the fact that there wasn't two night kills last night is interesting.

Also, I second what inHim said. FOS is now the new voting method. We want to try to save those with the Doom status if at all possible.

On the subject of suspects, although I agree that Antifinity seemed to be hinting rolefishing for investigative roles, I was given that

slight

impression from Glork as well (when he said he believed Chrono as Town). As far as I'm concerned, Chrono has done far to much BW jumping in this game for my taste.

vote PranaDevil

probably should have been lynched yesterday. To add to that, I don't like his "don't target me at night or you'll regret it/I dare mafia to target me" attitude.

[bill1148]

I also think it's beyond ridiculous that Chrono is getting flak for being "wagony," when Prana, Anti, and Dram have been AT LEAST as bad. Clearly there is some scum favoritism among this group.

Chrono drew heavy attention from me because of the whole Unvoting icerint to fit in with town, and then realizing not many people were unvoting, revoting with no good reason. atleast that's what it looked like from my point of view.

Anti-wagon grew crazy fast. Kind of like the Zodiark wagon did. This is the raw data that can be taken from that.
I count the Zodiark quick wagon begining after I mentioned he was posting in other threads, and I count the Antifinity quick wagon as begining with Icerint's vote.

Zodiark quick wagon

Kdub
Chronopie
Icerint
BV310
Antifinity
Wolfram

Antifinity quick Wagon

Icerint
Glork
Prana
FCGroningen

Bill1148

Wolfram
Chronopie

Should be noted Prana and FCgronigen were allready voting for Zodiark with me before the quick wagon moment, so can't be looked at for this. Dramonic and Starbuck both voted Zodiark, but not immediatly, a good bit of time passed from the quick wagon and there votes.

So what I take from this is: People who hopped on both wagons fast: Icerint, Wolfram, Chronopie

People who hopped on Antifinity fast but not Zodiark: Glork(has since unvoted),

and Bill

People who hopped on Zodiark fast but not Antifinity: BV310, and Kdub


There isn't neccisarilly alot to be gained from this untill such time as we know what Antifinity's allignment was, but I figured I wanted the info out there in an easy to reference post for the future.

Also someone might want to double check incase I missed someone or added someone who shouldn't be there.

What are you talking about? I did not vote for Anti. In fact I even defended him slightly from Glork & co.

I also think it's beyond ridiculous that Chrono is getting flak for being "wagony," when Prana, Anti, and Dram have been AT LEAST as bad. Clearly there is some scum favoritism among this group.

There is a difference. Chrono is particulary bad at hiding his "wagony" nature. Prana & Anti generally post sentences or paragraphs when they jump the wagon, which helps give the "illusion" that they aren't, and the information they post can be used as information later. Chrono, however, might as well say in every post "I agree. Vote Majority." I'll admit, dramonic is about as bad as Chrono in this regard, but dramonic has a few different things that help his case. First, dramonic has claimed Ramuh, and even claimed Ramuh before being put under suspicion (in the Inn, if I recall). And while Ramuh = electrocution, everything else in the story points elsewhere. A "tornado" came before the bolt of lightining. Ramuh was shown protecting other players in the story.

Finally, I do not suspect Chrono more than I do, say, PranaDevil (who I voted for). I'm still fairly neutral on him, though I will admit, I'm leaning towards him being mafia. But at this point, I'd vote for Prana and Iece over him. Still 50/50 on Anti as well.

[bill1148]

It's possible it's either a retaliation effect from a night action (Glork's stated he didn't have one, but then if he's scum, he wouldn't state he had one. Plus he had that extra vote on him through the day phase, and that's not landed on someone else either), or someone else went after him.

In general, I agree with the principle. But there are a few things you are neglecting here.

- there exists the possiblity that the Anon. Vote is either a one-shot ability or an ability that can only be used every other Day Phase or on odd Day Phases only.
- instead of the Anon. Vote being a "retaliation effect" of the blind, it could be that wolf is immune to having a Anon. Vote on him.
- Glork was targetted by two separate abilities and/or two different players.

Personally, I believe that the Blind & Anon. Vote are from the same player and the same ability. It is highly unlikely, in a probability sense, that Glork was targetted by two different players in the same Night. And I also find it more likely that wolf is immune to the Anon. Vote than Glork is to having a "retaliation effect," especially considering that wolf made a "joke" claim on being Tidus, then claimed Vanilla.

However, assuming Blind & the Anon. Vote is a Mafia ability and not a 3rd party ability (or 2nd Mafia ability), this means its highly unlikely that wolf is Mafia (since you'd think his own team, Mafia, would be aware if he was blinded and that he'd be immune to the Anon. Vote). This would indicate wolf is 3rd party or 2nd Mafia team, since he would have lied about his Vanilla. The same is also true if it were vice-versa. Wolf is 3rd party and was targetted by a Mafia ability, and thus is immune to the Anon. Vote part of the Mafia ability.

Either way, in my experience, I'd believe it far more likely that wolf is lying and is immune to the Anon. Vote part of the Blind ability, than that Glork had a "retaliation effect" to the Blind status.

In fact, I'm not sure why I didn't see this before. Though I may regret this later,

unvote. Vote wolf

[bill1148]

^ Does not compute. Try again?

You'll need to elaborate on the part(s) you don't understand, Iece.

[bill1148]

@Glork

Just to make sure, you are 100% positive that you were not told of being inflicted with two status ailments Night 1, correct?

---

Vote Count:

Antifinity: 4

(Iecerint, FC Groningen, dramonic, Chronopie)

PranaDevil: 4

(MehPlusRawr, JPSalazar, Antifinity, Glork)

Chronopie: 2

(Devotress, bv310)

wolframnhart: 2

(WorseExcuse, bill1148)

Iecerint: 1

(KDub)

Glork: 1

(PranaDevil)

WorseExcuse: 0

(wolframnhart)

Not Voting:

DragonsofSummer
inHimshallibe

Lynch:

9 votes.

Deadline:

May 16th - 3:00 PM EST

[bill1148]

What's to say that someone isn't a shadow voter? Doesn't have to be a scum player either. Just a double voter with a night mechanic to their second vote.

Therefore Vote, Blind are different abilitites. Therefore Wolf could be any ****ing role in the game.

Also, to be immune to part of an ability would be bastard-y.

I don't buy it.

A few problems with this.

Foremost, your explanation does not detail why a player had an Anon. Vote on them at the start of this Day Phase, whereas there was one for the previous one. Also, the entirety of your arguement is that there exists a double-voter. Which is plausible, not probable. And if Glork was targetted by a "double-voter," wouldn't he have been told such (but again, I'd like Glork to definitively clarify that he was only targetted by one ability Night One)?

[bill1148]

Also, something you (Chrono) and Iece seem to be forgetting is that there exists the

possibility

probability of there being TWO mafia groups, or 3rd party (Serial Killer). I am theorizing that one mafia group targetted another mafia group, or the mafia group targetted a SK, or the SK targetted a mafia.

[bill1148]

Foremost, your explanation does not detail why a player had an Anon. Vote on them at the start of

the previous

Day Phase, whereas there

wasn't one for this Day Phase

.

Fixed.

[bill1148]

What's to say that someone isn't a shadow voter? Doesn't have to be a scum player either. Just a double voter with a night mechanic to their second vote.

Therefore Vote, Blind are different abilitites. Therefore Wolf could be any ****ing role in the game.

Also, to be immune to part of an ability would be bastard-y.

I don't buy it.

A few problems with this.

Foremost, your explanation does not detail why a player had an Anon. Vote on them at the start of this Day Phase, whereas there was one for the previous one. Also, the entirety of your arguement is that there exists a double-voter. Which is plausible, not probable. And if Glork was targetted by a "double-voter," wouldn't he have been told such (but again, I'd like Glork to definitively clarify that he was only targetted by one ability Night One)?

Something that I forgot to mention here, but if there exists a "double-voter," and if Blind and Anon. Vote are two separate abilities used by two different players, do you know how small the probability is that the same player was targetted by two different players in the same Night Phase?

I'll do the math for you. There were 22 players during Night Phase 1. If you assume Blind & Anon. Vote are two different abilities, and taking into consideration that the user of Blind & Anon. cannot use it on themselves, means that both players can target 21 other players. Which means the chances of one player using an ability on Glork is 1/21.

(Assuming that Blind & Anon. Vote are used by different players)
1/21 x 1/21=

1/441 chance of two players using two abilities on one player (Glork).

If you change that to a percentage chance, then the chance of that happening is .002%

Obviously, this is a bit off. This assumes random probability, and from what I can tell, Glork is one of the better players, and thus would be more likely be a prime target for two abilities from two players (although Blind seems like a pro-scum ability and double-voter sounds like a pro-town ability, thus, if assuming he was targetted by two players, it means he was targetted by two players of opposite spectrums). And also granted, this assumes there are no limitations on using "double voter (assuming it exists)" and that a decent player is using it. I see no reason to use a double vote ability Night 1 if it's pro-town (unless a fool is using it), especially if its a one-shot ability.

[bill1148]

Nothing to really comment on as of now.

I'm not a big supporter of lynching Anti. Iece, Prana, and wolf are the better options.

[bill1148]

You've been away for 5 days, and are only poking your head in to say you don't want to lynch Anti... considering Anti's been suspicious to a few people, how's about giving us a reason that Anti's not scummy enough to lynch?

Plus saying you have nothing to comment on after 5 days is poor by anyone's standards, that's 5 full days there has been activity that you can at least comment on.

Do you really want me to summarize what has happened in the last 5 days? Because I can do so in 1 sentence.

[bill1148]

You can't make a post that basically says "hai, this person not as scummy as these, bai!"

Says you.

But to sum up what happened during the 4 days I wasn't here, Glork told half a dozen players to post more, JP freaks out, Devo tells him to calm down, Chrono with more BW, Prana & Meh dumped wagon votes on Anti. The End.

That's blatant activity posting

No, it's not.

I have emphasized repeatedly my suspicions of yourself and Iece. Wolf was a new suspect that I brought up with other reasoning, which funnily enough no one has really commented on. I have no need to repeat what I have already stated numerous times, as that would just be spamming and BS'ing. I only feel the need to go in-depth with an analysis when I have something new to add to the discussion.

in fact, in an ISO of you, you've had best part of a week previously where you vanished, (well a full week bar a couple of hours), then returned, made some postings, and disappeared again until today.

I don't comprehend you. I guess I couldn just do the ol' "Hey guys, just posting to say I won't be around for 3-4 days. Kthxbai."

I feel no need to share with you, or anyone else, my personal life or what I am doing. Also, a main reason I only play 1 game at a time is so that the one game that I am playing has my full and undivided attention. I believe full-heartedly that my posts, overall, have been contributory to the discussion. Even if they are not given on a daily basis.

[bill1148]

You can't make a post that basically says "hai, this person not as scummy as these, bai!"

Says you.

But to sum up what happened during the 4 days I wasn't here, Glork told half a dozen players to post more, JP freaks out, Devo tells him to calm down, Chrono with more BW, Prana & Meh dumped wagon votes on Anti. The End.

That's blatant activity posting

No, it's not.

I have emphasized repeatedly my suspicions of yourself and Iece. Wolf was a new suspect that I brought up with other reasoning, which funnily enough no one has really commented on. I have no need to repeat what I have already stated numerous times, as that would just be spamming and BS'ing. I only feel the need to go in-depth with an analysis when I have something new to add to the discussion.

in fact, in an ISO of you, you've had best part of a week previously where you vanished, (well a full week bar a couple of hours), then returned, made some postings, and disappeared again until today.

I don't comprehend you. I guess I couldn just do the ol' "Hey guys, just posting to say I won't be around for 3-4 days. Kthxbai."

I feel no need to share with you, or anyone else, my personal life or what I am doing. Also, a main reason I only play 1 game at a time is so that the one game that I am playing has my full and undivided attention. I believe full-heartedly that my posts, overall, have been contributory to the discussion. Even if they are not given on a daily basis.

[bill1148]

You can't make a post that basically says "hai, this person not as scummy as these, bai!"

Says you.

But to sum up what happened during the 4 days I wasn't here, Glork told half a dozen players to post more, JP freaks out, Devo tells him to calm down, Chrono with more BW, Prana & Meh dumped wagon votes on Anti. The End.

That's blatant activity posting

No, it's not.

I have emphasized repeatedly my suspicions of yourself and Iece. Wolf was a new suspect that I brought up with other reasoning, which funnily enough no one has really commented on. I have no need to repeat what I have already stated numerous times, as that would just be spamming and BS'ing. I only feel the need to go in-depth with an analysis when I have something new to add to the discussion.

in fact, in an ISO of you, you've had best part of a week previously where you vanished, (well a full week bar a couple of hours), then returned, made some postings, and disappeared again until today.

I don't comprehend you. I guess I couldn just do the ol' "Hey guys, just posting to say I won't be around for 3-4 days. Kthxbai."

I feel no need to share with you, or anyone else, my personal life or what I am doing. Also, a main reason I only play 1 game at a time is so that the one game that I am playing has my full and undivided attention. I believe full-heartedly that my posts, overall, have been contributory to the discussion. Even if they are not given on a daily basis.

[bill1148]

I wouldn't put it past the blinder to stop firing just to muddle the situation. Taking away a single player's vote isn't very useful until endgame, anyway.

I covered this point. If you're really the deathmiller your role flip will read "ultros (Mafia Goon)."
If you are the blinder your role flip will reveal that you have some sort of role. "Ultros (Mafia Vote blocker)" or something along those lines


I'm just waiting on enough people stating they agree with this logic before I hop on the icerint wagon. I honestly feel if everyone can agree to this than we have no risk of false info off your flip.

If he is actually blinding others, he should come up "Vote Blocker." If he's actually a Death Miller, he should come up "Goon." Thus I agree.

Devo actually brings up a decent point. Initially, I was skeptical voting for Iece right away (though he has been a suspect since D1) because I was afraid that our next lynches would be steered in the wrong direction due to the fact that we'd never actually know whether Iece was Mafia or not. However, if he is mafia, there surely cannot exist a better candidate for the "Blind" ability than Ultros. And, if he's mafia, he should show up as having the "Blind" ability, whereas if DM, he should simply come up "Goon."

As such,

vote Iece.

[bill1148]

PD, you have it backward. Glork appeared to be ignoring/missing half of the equation. I'm pointing out that his interpretation of an absent inker after my death is plausibly manipulable by scum. Glork's rhetoric is the rhetoric that is weak on WIFOM-grounds.

Put another way:
a) If I were scumInker, the ink would stop with my death.
b) If I were townDM, scum would (depending upon the player with implicit connections to me, I guess, but on average) probably still stop inking, because "confirming" me as scum would be more useful than taking away one player's vote early on. They can always start the inking up again late game when it's more useful.

So you should expect the ink to probably stop after my death regardless of my alignment, so it's not a reliable way to judge my alignment.

I'm trying to decide whether Glork thought the Anti wagon would go on its own and he was trying to get off of it, or if he was distancing from Anti and let things get out of hand. There's a 3rd way that makes him town, but I dunno.

I disagree. As pointed out by Devo, if you're really scum, you should appear to have the "Blind" ability. If otherwise, you're DM.

As well, I disagree with the sentiment that its still "early" in the game. Day Phase 3 (the day that Blind would be in effect the day after your presumed lynching) is borderline "early."

---

Vote Count:

Iecerint: 7

(KDub, WorseExcuse, Glork, inHimshallibe, bv310, Chronopie)

Antifinity: 5

(Iecerint, FC Groningen, dramonic, JPSalazar, PranaDevil)

PranaDevil: 2

(MehPlusRawr, Devotress)

Chronopie: 1

(Antifinity)

wolframnhart: 1

(bill1148)

WorseExcuse: 0

(wolframnhart)

Not Voting:

DragonsofSummer

Lynch:

9 votes.

Deadline:

May 16th - 3:00 PM EST

[bill1148]

unvote
vote Iece

[bill1148]

The musical notes were in a different paragraph from the part where I got doomed. I don't know if it was one thing or I had two powers used on me. It was like

"Musical notes distract you, don't do anything"

"While that went on you have been doomed"

to paraphrase.

That sounds like a negation ability. In which case, that may explain why two players were not killed N2...because Anti was negated.

My problems with FOS'ing:

1.) It limits what can be done. Players tend to take votes against them more seriously than FOS'.

2.) The player with Blind cannot prove it without voting.

3.) Say, 10 people FOS for one player this phase. So some of those 10 then vote for that person. However, mid-way through putting their votes onto that player, suspicion has shifted onto another player. This new player that is suspected, cannot be voted for now since the countdown has started, (and thus questioning on this new player is limited) so it puts the player with Death Sentence at risk.

4.) Mafia can now Doom their own, without worrying about their own player being killed by the Doom status while taking away suspicion from that player. The same is true if a 2nd Mafia or SK is hit with the Death Sentence- it saves that particular player, as well as removing suspicion from them.

5.) Possibly difficult to keep track of. The Mod has no implication to keep track of FOS', so its up to the players to keep track of it.

That said, I guess I'll FOS for now, until I see what other players think on this. I'm just afraid it will limit discussion material.

FOS: Anti

[bill1148]

The other likely mafia to Marilith's team are:

Lich- (Doom?)
Kraken- (Blind?)
Tiamat- (???)

Also, to further the speculation on these two nights where we had two night kills (N1 and N3), I seriously doubt it's a Vig. A Vig shouldn't be killing someone N1, and I doubt a Vig would have multiple flavors ("Reduced to nothing" and "Drowned")

[bill1148]

Assuming Kdub is telling the truth on his blindness, it looks as though he doesn't have an Anon. Vote on him. So it appears my suspicion on wolf yesterday for that reasoning was inaccurate.

[bill1148]

That sounds like a negation ability. In which case, that may explain why two players were not killed N2...because Anti was negated.

Just noticed this. Do you know something we don't bill? Such as Anti is

definitely

a killing role?

FoS: Bill

There were 2 kills N1 and N3. There was only 1 kill N2. Therefore, the player who wanted to kill someone N2 was negated. Basic deduction.

[bill1148]

btw, does anyone know what the "Thief" ability specifically does?

[bill1148]

@ Glork

Regarding your speculation that "Drown" is a Vig ability, I doubt it. If that were the case, that means the same faction got in 2 kills during the first Night Phase. Never heard of or seen that before.

Also, I am more inclined to believe that this "musical notes" (who is likely a Negator)person is pro-town. There was no "Doom" Day 1. It highly possible that that player was negated Day 1 and just hasn't spoken up about it, for obvious reasons (since no one claims that they were negated Day 1).

Yeah, I realize there exists the possibility that one Mafia hit the second Mafia. But in my experience, the possiblity of a town player having a negation ability exceeds the chance of there being Two Mafia factions. And yes, I am also aware that the negator could be a SK, but I've never seen a SK with any other ability than "could kill a player of choosing every Night Phase."

Also, I would like some more clarification on the Thief ability. If it's the same as a flavor Cop, that means that the Cop's results are just simply characteristics, correct (meaning that the Thief gets a certain result if he checked a Summon, a certain result if he checked a Mage, etc)? If I am assuming this correctly, how accurate are Flavor Cops/Thiefs?

[bill1148]

Also, there is a way that Devo (whom I believe to be pro-town as well) can still theoretically be killed by Doom, even if we are all using FOS'.

[bill1148]

@Kise

I could have sworn you were referring to Atlanta City, Georgia (not Jersey). I'll bet you're a full-time gambler.

[bill1148]

In response to that Glork, I'd like to know why you think Doom was not used N1.

[bill1148]

^To add to that, you'd think that using "Doom" N1 is a must (since choosing not to use it is just dumb). It is early in the game, and the chances of the person Doomed being killed is guaranteed.

[bill1148]

I just think the scums used different people to kill between N1 and N2. It seems far more likely than having Mafia/Mafia/SK (presumably).

You misunderstand. I am proposing that there are 2 kills coming from the same faction. 1 kill coming from a 3rd.

That said, obviously in that scenario, it means that it is highly unlikely that there exists 2 Mafia factions (since 1 Mafia faction would be presumably overpowered with the ability to kill twice and the other Mafia faction can only kill once). As such, I am proposing that the setup is Mafia + SK. I am also going to go ahead and reason that the SK killed bv on your advice. Given that, at this point, consequtive Town members were killed with no mafia dead, I am assuming that the SK went ahead and killed bv on your advice, so as to "even the odds" with Town and Mafia (so that the Mafia doesn't win before the SK does)

Then again, this is just me proposing a possiblity. I agree fullheartedly with you that there still exists the possibility of Mafia + Mafia + Vig or Mafia + SK + Vig.

Doom, on the other hand, will work approximately once. It was definitely used N2, and we almost immediately figured out a workaround so that it will (hopefully) no longer be useful as a kill method.

Except it was guaranteed to work D1 and D2 if used. The minimum required votes to kill someone D1 was, what, 12? The minimum required votes to kill someone D2 was 10. In both situations, it would not have mattered whether we just FOS' or not. The player with Doom would die regardless if we intended to lynch anyone.

[bill1148]

Bill, please explain to me where you think each of the kills from each night came from.

Very well.

2. xRECKONERx - Biggs (Mason) - Electrocuted Night 1
5. Albert B. Rampage - Zidane Tribal (Thief) - Reduced to nothing Night 1
7. Zodiark13 - Captain Rygdea (Vanilla Townie) - Lynched Day 1
14. Nautilius - Wedge (Mason) - Electrocuted Night 2
1. Starbuck DarkLightA - Ridley Silverlake (Vanilla Townie) - Died Day 2
18. Iecerint - Ultros (Mafia Goon) - Lynched Day 2
20. inHimshallibe - Blank (Thief) - Electrocuted Night 3
15. bv310 - Marilith (Mafia Goon) - Drowned Night 3

Foremost, "Electrocuted" and "Reduced to Nothing" are NOT from a Vig.
"Electrocuted" symbolizes that one player is submitting a kill, but since it has been submitted onto the most pro-Town players at this point and was used N1, if a Vig is electrocuting, it symbolizes dumb-assery.

"Doom" (Starbuck & Devo) is HIGHLY UNLIKELY to be a Vig or SK. Because a) it was used on two of the more pro-town players here. and b) if it were an SK ability, it would greatly limit his ability to kill.

"Drowned" can be any of them. However, I'd reason that it is least likely to be a Vig. I find it highly likely that Mafia are given multiple flavors. I would also like to theorize that a SK *might* have multiple flavors. I see no reason for a Town player to have multiple flavors. And finally, perhaps this is just my inexperience with flavors speaking, but isn't the point of flavor kills to begin with to represent that some players are immune to certain flavors?

To sum it up, I theorize this:

Electrocution is a SK
Drowned/Reduced to Nothing + Doom is Mafia

OR

Electrocution + Doom is Mafia
Drowned/Reduced to Nothing is a SK

OR

Electrocution (and maybe Doom) is one Mafia
Drowned/Reduced to Nothing (and maybe Doom)is a second Mafia

OR

Electrocution + is Mafia
Reduced to Nothing is SK (though this comes into question since no one was killed from this flavor N2 or N3)
Drowned is Vig

Personally, I find the first two options more likely (though I don't deny the possibility of the last), though as I've previously stated, that may just be my inexperience with flavors speaking.

[bill1148]

Wait, hold on.

There's also a possiblity that the faction with the "Reduced to Nothing" flavor has the ability to use Doom instead of submitting a Night kill. That could explain why Doom was not used N1 (since that was the same Night Phase as the "Reduced to Nothing" flavor)

Ah...I think I'll stop considering the widespread possibilities. Not enough info.

[bill1148]

I'm not so sure bout that :S

FOS: Anti
FOS: JP

Both other lynches I could get behind

Big surprise /sarcasm

[bill1148]

JP comes off more as an impatient Townie, rather than scum with his vote (instead of FOS). DT is curious in that he said that he hadn't read the Doom analysis. Although it doesn't really matter, since it takes 7 to lynch now.

@DT

Other than Prana (who you voted for), who do you find most supicious?

[bill1148]

No, we wouldn't, but you're missing the point, all the other stuff that you normally do with a vote (or threat thereof) in terms of scumhunting. How do we know that toDay isn't gonna extend till June, think of all the scumhunting that could be done... that you can't do now because you can't remove your vote.

Wait, what? My vote is stuck? Testing this.

Unvote

Vote Adumbro

*facepalm*

FOS: DT

[bill1148]

un-FOS DT

FOS dramonic

You are way too trigger happy. Initially, I was going to put aside you as a suspect with the Ramuh claim, but BW jumping, constantly "urging" players to hammer vote, Ramuh = Electrocution, and now this voting to lower the Doom counter are all mafia-esque.

*sigh* with dramonic's vote, we

have

to unanimously lynch one of the following, else Devo dies today.

Antifinity: 1 (JPSalazar)
AdumbroDeus: 1 (DTMaster)
PranaDevil: 1 (dramonic)

[bill1148]

Vote: PranaDevil

Yeah yeah, doom counter, etc., blahblah. Prana's going to be lynched anyway, mise well get the votes over with.

Glork, you'd better be pretty confident about that.

In any case, I'd like to ask, do you still want to save Devo today? Because now we have to vote Prana to save him.

[bill1148]

Oh, I understand where you are coming from with Prana (and I agree with Glork's analysis of Prana).

I just thought we were going to wait until we had enough FOS' on him. Because as far as I could tell, there weren't enough. In fact you'll be lucky if there's more than 4. DT has already voted Adumbo, and if he were to change votes (which he probably will, since he doesn't care), Devo dies. If anyone from here on out votes for anyone other than Prana, Devo dies.

And I was kind of hoping the Day would last a little longer, so I could get a better read on DT. Right now, he's teetering between idiot town and obv Mafia.

[bill1148]

vote Prana

4

[bill1148]

A few things:

1.) No one was electrocuted last night. Meaning that the electrocutioner was either blocked, hit someone immune to electrocution, or hit someone who was protected by our dear and beloved Doctor.

2.)"Drowned" is probably our Vig. My mistake for thinking it was a Mafia or SK.

This also temporarily removes Anti from my suspicions. Initially, I suspected him due to the fact he was hit by musical notes (which sounds like negation based on Devo's reasoning), and the fact that there weren't two kills during Night 2. It also stands to reason that the Electrocutioner is mafia, not SK, since our electrocutioner has been killing every night. I'm guessing SK is our "reduced to nothing" + Doom fellow.

3.) Whoever was Doomed, speak up now. If anyone is Blind, speak up now.

[bill1148]

To answer the question about my feelings on DTMaster, I find it not impossible that he was some sort of

Death Godfather

, as I can't think of any other way to explain his ultra-scummy scumtasticness.

lol what?

I'm skeptical doom is a SK tool. I mean, we've found a way to avoid it taking effect ever, you'd think Kise wouldn't put such an impossible role to win with in the game, unless it also has a NK. But at this point dooming instead of NKing is silly.

Well then, would you care to explain the "reduced to nothing" flavor? It obviously isn't a Vig, since it was used N1 and because "Drowned" is obviously the flavor for our Vig. You are apparently saying it isn't a SK either, since Doom doesn't work anymore, plus that the "reduced to nothing" was only used once. And I don't see why it would be coming from Mafia (the team that is apparently electrocuting), since it would be two kills from one faction in one night, in addition, why would they be using Doom instead of the extra "reduced to nothing" kill?

I was targeted by the brown cloaked music man last night.

Duly noted.

Devo, were you told specifically that you were hit with doom again last night, or was it a carry over from yesterday?

Interesting. I'd like Devo to clarify this as well, although I was given the impression from her original post that she was hit again, rather than what you are suggesting.

[bill1148]

To answer the question about my feelings on DTMaster, I find it not impossible that he was some sort of

Death Godfather

, as I can't think of any other way to explain his ultra-scummy scumtasticness.

lol what?

I'm skeptical doom is a SK tool. I mean, we've found a way to avoid it taking effect ever, you'd think Kise wouldn't put such an impossible role to win with in the game, unless it also has a NK. But at this point dooming instead of NKing is silly.

Well then, would you care to explain the "reduced to nothing" flavor? It obviously isn't a Vig, since it was used N1 and because "Drowned" is obviously the flavor for our Vig. You are apparently saying it isn't a SK either, since Doom doesn't work anymore, plus that the "reduced to nothing" was only used once. And I don't see why it would be coming from Mafia (the team that is apparently electrocuting), since it would be two kills from one faction in one night, in addition, why would they be using Doom instead of the extra "reduced to nothing" kill?

I was targeted by the brown cloaked music man last night.

Duly noted.

Devo, were you told specifically that you were hit with doom again last night, or was it a carry over from yesterday?

Interesting. I'd like Devo to clarify this as well, although I was given the impression from her original post that she was hit again, rather than what you are suggesting.

[bill1148]

The

lurker

alert works for me. They aren't helping much in the game.

FoS: MehPlusRawr

Which would include you, Meh, thatguy, and wolf (wolf has seemlingly disappeared too)

[bill1148]

The

lurker

alert works for me. They aren't helping much in the game.

FoS: MehPlusRawr

Which would include you, Meh, thatguy, and wolf (wolf has

seemlingly

disappeared too)

*seemingly

[bill1148]

Forgive me for not quoting Glork's post as I'm in a bit of a rush but: I'll agree with Glork's excellent analysis of Meh. He's been way too wagony and has lurked too much, which is somewhat similar to how bv played earllier this game (the only scum we 100% know for sure to have hit).

FOS: Meh

Glork, what are your thoughts on the "Reduced to Nothing" and Doom? I theorized earlier that both of these belonged to a SK, while Electrocution belongs to Mafia and Drowned belongs to our Vig.

Also, I apologize that haven't been as "posty" as I was earlier in the game, but I'm being run ragged at school these last few weeks, and with finals coming up, it won't get any easier for me. I should be able to be more consistently active around mid to late June.

[bill1148]

Right...

vote Meh

5

[bill1148]

Here is who is left:

3. JPSalazar
8. Glork
10. Chronopie (claimed water)
11. Antifinity
13. thatguy00 (claimed doctor- parallel to Rosa, will need further investigation)
16. bill1148
17. dramonic (claimed Ramuh)
19. AdumbroDeus
21. Midnight's Sorrow (claimed Vanilla, will need further investigation)

If there are really two scum teams, then the ratio is 4:4:1. I'm willing to believe Kdub's analysis on the second scum team being the four fiends from FFIV. In that case, the second scum team

has

to be lynched today.

What we have:

Doom- either Lich, one of the four mentioned below, or a Vig/SK (doubtful).

Roleblocker ("brown-cloaked" - likely Scarmiglione [Earth flavor])
"Reduced to Nothing" flavor- likely Barbariccia [Wind flavor]
"Drowned" flavor- likely Cagnazzo [Water flavor]
Other member- Rubicante [Fire flavor]

For the second scum team, I'm looking at Glork, Chrono, and JP. Last one is either Adumbro and/or Midnight Sorrow. dramonic should be written off because he was the first player to claim in the game and has claimed electric based, which isn't parallel to any of the remaing players. thatguy I am willing to temporarily write off because he claimed doctor, one that is similar to Rosa (and two doctors + two Thiefs would counteract the two killing scum teams). Also, I would like to note that I wouldn't entirely trust that Rosa is definitely in the game.

Chrono needs to be observed because water = Cagnazzo. And no, I'm not going to believe this Drowned = Vig crap. It doesn't explain the "Reduced to Nothing" flavor. This flavor came from someone that isn't affiliated with Kdub's team. There is no fucking way in hell in came from a Vig, and it couldn't have come from a SK either since it hasn't been used since then. Kdub was obviously the one electrocuting, the blocking and the killing on later on him were in unison. He was blocked by his rival scum (Scarmiglione) night 4, then killed the proceeding night by the same team. And there is a decent chance he was blocked again last night on the same night he was killed(if anyone was blocked last night,

speak up now

.)

I'm also going to highly recommend that everyone just flat-out role claim right now, being that there is a strong possibility that this is LoL. I'll start. I am Regent Cid Fabool from FFIX (Vanilla).

And a few questions:

@ thatguy

Who did you protect Night 2?

@ dramonic

You mentioned earlier in the game that you had strengths. Name your strengths, and do you have a weakness?

[bill1148]

Interesting that no one was doomed last night. I'm going to assume that our Doomer decided it is pointless to use the ability any longer, since it only gives away other player's factions. Which means Doom is defintely not a Vig or SK.

[bill1148]

@Kise

Did Meh die with 6 votes yesterday or 7? And if he died with 6, is it because the lynch vote majority necessary to lynch went down to 6 due to Devo's death?

[bill1148]

Hmm... I just got Cursed apparently.

Hope that isn't the doom...

If you were Doomed, there'd be a little red "10" in Kise's first post just like all the other Day Phases. I'd like you to elaborate on this "curse," actually.

And I take it you protected Glork last night, based on your previous comment?

[bill1148]

Did my predecessor claim?? I didn't see that, but I'll go ahead and do so.

Rikken from FF12(vanilla)

If it is indeed 4 of each scum team then its not the 2 red and zero orange tat I thought there might be. Ouch...that means 3 red and one Orange guy out there compared to the rest that are townies. I would definitely say its lynch or lose if this is the case.

Yeah, wolf claimed Vanilla like Day 2.

I'll also temporarily remove thatguy from "needing investigation" since he said he was cursed- but I still

definitely

want him to elaborate.

3. JPSalazar
8. Glork
10. Chronopie (claimed water)
11. Antifinity
13. thatguy00 (claimed doctor)
16. bill1148
17. dramonic (claimed Ramuh)
19. AdumbroDeus
21. Midnight's Sorrow (Rikken from FF12 [vanilla])

[bill1148]

*Fixed

3. JPSalazar
8. Glork
10. Chronopie (claimed water)
11. Antifinity
13. thatguy00 (claimed doctor)
16. bill1148 (Regent Cid from FF9 [vanilla])
17. dramonic (claimed Ramuh)
19. AdumbroDeus
21. Midnight's Sorrow (Rikken from FF12 [vanilla])

[bill1148]

This is a likely LoL.

Fake

Role-claim your water elemental character now.

[bill1148]

@Bill: the drownings inflicted on the scum team (and DTM, my bad) i.e. Water i.e. me, is

actually

a vig.

Name claim: Leviathan.

Role: Vig.

--

Mass claiming via popcorn: Antifinity

As I pointed out earlier, if Vig = drowned means that there aren't two scum and it requires ignoring the "reduced to nothing."

Leviathan = Cagnazzo

But while you're at it, dramonic said earlier about there existing certain strengths and weaknesses. What are yours?

[bill1148]

@ thatguy Who did you protect Night 2?

I believe it was Devotress. That is, if I was in on Night Two, I think that was when I replaced? Not sure. Either way, I believe Devotress was protected before that, as I was told.

Makes a bit of sense. Devo was blocked Night 3, I believe. The probably tried killing her Night 2 (the missing kill), and since it failed, they targeted her with Roleblocking the next night.

[bill1148]

I protected Glork. But it seems the Curse just made it pointless.

I guess I was RB'd

, should've known by paying attention to the Scene.

Were you informed that you were targeted by a "brown-cloaked" man?

[bill1148]

I'll roleclaim if I have to (in fact I've offered in the past), but since we're also not under a constraint of beating the clock in terms of Doom, I'm throwing down the white glove.

Translation: I need more time for a Fake-Claim.

Oh yeah, you just threw your vote on me in a

possible

probable LoL. If you're not scum, you officially fall into the category of idiot Town. Congratulations.

3. JPSalazar
8. Glork
10. Chronopie (claimed Leviathan [Vig] - highly doubtful = Cagnazzo)
11. Antifinity
13. thatguy00 (claimed doctor)
16. bill1148 (Regent Cid from FF9 [vanilla])
17. dramonic (claimed Ramuh)
19. AdumbroDeus
21. Midnight's Sorrow (Rikken from FF12 [vanilla])

[bill1148]

Iso #0: I'm guessing elements are a big thing in this game. I'm also guessing that there is an

SK/

vig.

Iso #4: Water>Fire

? After all, we have a claimed Ifrit.

Iso #15: Was this the elemental Super-vote kinda thing? I'm assuming that you were asking about water orientation in particular bc lightning would be a ?double vote? vs water?

Cluster of other posts: Water hint, water hint... I'm just a plain voteless water elemental. water hint...

And looking at the inn: Dislike DTM...

And back to the thread: wouldn't mind seeing dead: #1 kdub

--

I'm surprised I made it this far. btw: as I underlined above Water>Fire. and Lightning>water.

Suspecting those players doesn't do squat for you, sorry. DTM pissed off numerous players, had a scum list of like 9 people before he died, and was the most "thorough" of everyone in the game. Anyone could have wanted him dead.

As for suspecting Kdub, killing off a rival scum member doesn't mean you're innocent.

[bill1148]

"Imapatient Town" isn't an excuse.

Also, some problems with your claim.

a) Just as a Doctor isn't directly informed that the player they tried to save was targeted, neither should a commuter be informed when they are targeted with abilities that miss. So how do you *know* that you were targeted last night?
b) Your claim is earth-elemental *cough*Scarmiglione/Lich*cough*
c) You didn't mention earlier you were targeted by Doom last night.

3. JPSalazar (Galuf Baldesian [commuter] = Scarmiglione/Lich)
8. Glork
10. Chronopie (claimed Leviathan [Vig] - highly doubtful = Cagnazzo)
11. Antifinity
13. thatguy00 (Ceodore Harvey [doctor])
16. bill1148 (Regent Cid from FF9 [vanilla])
17. dramonic (claimed Ramuh)
19. AdumbroDeus
21. Midnight's Sorrow (Rikken from FF12 [vanilla])

[bill1148]

The fact remains that killing off DTM was a, at the time, a pro-town move. he looked scummy, therefore it was in the town's best interest to kill him off. It would have been in the scum's best interest to leave him as mislynch material. amirite?

No it wasn't. It's in scum's best interest to kill rival scums, other killers, and town players who won't STFU. DTM fit into 2 out of 3.

Besides it stands to argue that the Vig fake-claim was being set up when it became apparent a Vig didn't exist.

Hunting one scum team while conveniently ignoring the other =/= innocence.

[bill1148]

It's either you, Anti, or Glork that targeted me. At first, I wanted to just ignore the failed Doom and see if the Doomer would slip up, but thank you for completely blowing my attempt to wait for that to happen.

erm, whut?

Well apparently JP thinks our Doomer is a moron.

[bill1148]

@bill: strong against lightning, weak to water. Wish I'd be electrocuted a few times XP

Well that's interesting. Then observing the one know element player we have lynched:

MehPlusRawr: 6 (thatguy00, Chronopie, bill1148, Antifinity, dramonic, JPSalazar)

It took 6 to kill Meh. If dram is weak to water, shouldn't it have taken 7 to kill Meh? Unless I am misunderstanding flavors?

[bill1148]

I haven't been lurking. I've been busy, which I've repeatedly emphasized over the course of the last couple days. I will even bring up those posts if scummy JP/Chrono conviently can't remember it.

[bill1148]

The vote majority needed to lynch went down from 7 to 6 after Devo died, because the number of players decreased.

[bill1148]

I'd rather not quote my pm, but I'm pretty sure it said that like absorbs like, and raises vote threshold i.e negation, whereas voting for an element I had dominance against (fire) is "super effective" to quote pokemon.

Then your vote counts double against Fire, and counts nothing against Water, correct?

3. JPSalazar (Galuf Baldesian [commuter] = Scarmiglione/Lich)
8. Glork
10. Chronopie (claimed Leviathan [Vig] - highly doubtful = Cagnazzo)
11. Antifinity
13. thatguy00 (Ceodore Harvey [doctor])
16. bill1148 (Regent Cid from FF9 [vanilla])
17. dramonic (Ramuh [lightning based])
19. AdumbroDeus
21. Midnight's Sorrow (Rikken from FF12 [vanilla])

[bill1148]

3. JPSalazar (Galuf Baldesian [commuter] = Scarmiglione/Lich)
8. Glork (Rosa from FF4 [doctor])
10. Chronopie (claimed Leviathan [Vig] - highly doubtful = Cagnazzo)
11. Antifinity
13. thatguy00 (Ceodore Harvey [doctor])
16. bill1148 (Regent Cid from FF9 [vanilla])
17. dramonic (Ramuh [lightning based])
19. AdumbroDeus (Ingus from FF3 [vanilla])
21. Midnight's Sorrow (Rikken from FF12 [vanilla])

[bill1148]

I can't decide whether thatguy was actually blocked last night or if he was hit with something else. Everyone else who has been Roleblocked has said they were visted by a "brown cloaked" man (Anti, Devo, Kdub).

[bill1148]

Doom being a Lich ability would still create the problem of multiple kills in one group, as there were two nights with both Electrocution and Doom.

Roleblocking SK isn't completely unreasonable, except I don't think it fits in with the slate of abilities over the course of the game.

I'm a little preoccupied, so I don't have time for a complete night action analysis. Plus, any such analysis is moot until Anti claims. Once we have all claims and actions in, I'll compile a COMPLETE list of all claims, known and unknown actions (with targets, where applicable), and I'll take a look at what loose ends we need to tie up.


At any rate, I think we have to assume that today is LyLo. Worst-case scenario, it is Lich + SK left, and we're not completely fucked. But if we assume Lich + SK and there turns out to be a second mafia, we could easily lose today.

Quick thoughts, what if doom is balanced like an ability instead of a kill?

We seem to have a lot of strong pro-town abilities, though my concern there is "what's his kill flavor?".



Still, if it's another mafia we're dealing with, there is no vig. Lynching our claimed vig might be the safest move. Chrono claimed to be the drowning vig, right? Killing him seems like a pretty safe move, if he flips scum, we're dealing with 2 mafias.


If he flips town and there's a SK on the loose though, it's still a strong disadvantage.



If he flips indie, we laugh, we dance, we party, and we've got only 1 scum left.


Thoughts?

Lynching Chrono

is

the safest move. If he's really a Vig, there there is likely no second scum, but an SK.

That said, I'd much prefer to get rid of our Doomer or our brown cloaked fellow ASAP (Doom not so much, since it is pretty useless at this point) And Chrono would fit into neither category, I just think he's a scum member who's been submitting kills.

[bill1148]

While that would be nice, we have no way of knowing which one we're getting, and if you're right, we pick the wrong mafia, we're sunk.



If we kill chrono, we can confirm one way or another, since it's impossible that it occurred with him being a vig, and he'd HAVE to be on the other scum team for it to work, too many teamkills.

A few things:

a) There is no guarantee that Lich exists; it's still possible that there are two scum groups of 3, which would mean one scum group has already been eliminated.

b) If JP is really Lich, he'd likely be forced to reveal it at -1 or -2 (since he'd lose if lynched). Bascially, it would be a "temporary" save for him, since our top priority at this point is to kill the un-touched second scum and lynching Lich results in Town's loss.

c) If JP isn't Lich but is in fact Scarmiglione, it would be pretty dumb for him to fake-claim being Lich. Killing Lich (if he exists) right now is second-scum's top priority, and if/when they kll him, it's auto-lynch for Scarmiglione (the likely roleblocker).

[bill1148]

Something else I'd like to note is that there is a

slight

possibility that either Glork OR thatguy is lying. Will elaborate on this depending on Anti's claim.

[bill1148]

Something else I'd like to note is that there is a

slight

possibility that either Glork OR thatguy is lying

about their role.

Will elaborate on this depending on Anti's claim.

Fixed for specifics.

And updated for convenience:

3. JPSalazar (Galuf Baldesian [commuter: Earth element] = Scarmiglione/Lich)
8. Glork (Rosa from FF4 [doctor])
10. Chronopie (Leviathan [Vig: Water element]= Cagnazzo)
11. Antifinity
13. thatguy00 (Ceodore Harvey from FF4: After Years [doctor])
16. bill1148 (Regent Cid from FF9 [vanilla])
17. dramonic (Ramuh [Lightning element])
19. AdumbroDeus (Ingus from FF3 [vanilla])
21. Midnight's Sorrow (Rikken from FF12 [vanilla])

---

Vote Count:

bill1148: 1

(JPSalazar)

Not Voting:

AdumbroDeus
Antifinity
bill1148
Chronopie
dramonic
Glork
Midnight's Sorrow
thatguy00

Lynch:

5 votes.

Deadline:

June 25th - 5:00 PM EST

[bill1148]

Keep reading MS.

If we don't find the last scum, today (and it's not me you string up) I'll try take out the last scum.

If we/I find them, and the game isn't ended, you can string me up tomorrow. deal?

--

Last scum? Let me point out how unlikely it is that there is only one enemy left for Town.

Town: TWO self-protecting doctors, both of which may be able to kill zombies if they target them + VIG + TWO thiefs + townie who is immune to all elemental attacks + Masons

compared to: Blinder + Doomer + Roleblocker

Oh, and it's obvious at this point that Roleblocker and Doom are anti-town abilities. And both are extremely highly unlikely to belong to the same player or the same faction.

In the best case scenario, all we have left to worry about is a SK who can Roleblock and Doom (but this is unlikely). In worst case, as I mentioned earlier, you're looking at a ratio of 4:4:1; 4 Town, 4 scum from a second faction, and 1 scum left from the first.

[bill1148]

@Glork & thatguy

- Do you have any strengths/weaknesses (like dramonic and Chrono)? If so, name them please.

@ Chrono

- Did you try to kill anyone Night 2?

[bill1148]

@Glork & thatguy

- Do you have any strengths/weaknesses (like dramonic and Chrono)? If so, name them please.

I'd like JP to answer this question as well.

Also, Bill, I disagree that Chrono is the safest lynch today. I am also leaning towards there being 1 of Scum A, 4 of Scum B, and 4 town left. But unless Chrono is the

ONLY

person we can identify as being "likely scum," he should be kept alive and able to kill. That way, if we

do

mislynch and he

is

a Vig, he has a reasonable chance to keep us in the game.

How is that even possible? If Chrono is really the Vig and if there's really 4 scum left on a different team, there should be a kill coming from them...which there apparently isn't. If he's *really* the Vig, there should only be 2 scums left. At most 3, because IMO Chrono actually being a Vig completely obliterates the theory that there are two scum teams left.

[bill1148]

Well in any case, this game is stalled until Anti claims (though I pretty sure I know what he's going to claim)

3. JPSalazar (Galuf Baldesian [commuter: Earth element] = Scarmiglione/Lich)
8. Glork (Rosa from FF4 [doctor])
10. Chronopie (Leviathan [Vig: Water element]= Cagnazzo)
11. Antifinity
13. thatguy00 (Ceodore Harvey from FF4: After Years [doctor])
16. bill1148 (Regent Cid from FF9 [vanilla])
17. dramonic (Ramuh [Lightning element])
19. AdumbroDeus (Ingus from FF3 [vanilla])
21. Midnight's Sorrow (Rikken from FF12 [vanilla])

Also, is this right for elements analysis?:

Elements:

Earth-

Strong to: ???
Weak to: ???

Lightning-

Strong to: Water
Weak to: Lightning

Water-

Strong to: ???
Weak to: Lightning

Still want JP to clarify any Earth strengths/weaknesses.

[bill1148]

The fact is, bill, I called you out on being scum, and you're on a crusade to lead people by the nose.

Unvote

Correction: I called you out, then you voted for me.

I haven't really been acting any different than I did Day 1 or Day 2. As I said

repeatedly

over the course of Day 3 and Day 4, I was busy; thus why I wasn't posting as much during those later day phases than I was during those earlier Day Phases.

Another thing I should point out, is that a) there are fewer players now, so it more easily appears that I am "the leader" and b) there is a lot more information to work with today than there was during Day 1 or 2 (when I was more active). Also, "lurking" is a term that is way over-used. Too many people use it as something that describes someone who just doesn't post, which is a generalization. And quite frankly, coming from you, it is hypocritical.

YOU have lurked just as much as bv and Meh did, and more than Kdub did. And I don't want to hear this "I'm impatient Townie" excuse from you anymore.

[bill1148]

water is strong to lightning is strong to water.
probably the same for fire and earth
Pay attention!

The hell? Your vote counts double against Water and Water counts double against you?

[bill1148]

I'll cross replace. Oh wait. I'm already in Rapture.

@Bill: AFAIAC: the two scum theory went out the window, when the claims pointed out that there were only a few people claiming elements. If only scum were elementals, every time we had a double vote/null vote, it would be a big neon sign saying: These two people are scum, as there is an elemental Vote modifier, and only scum are elements!!!11!!

Please point to where I said

dramonic

, a

lightning element

, was a candidate for scum. kthx

Also, did you try to kill anyone Night 2?

[bill1148]

Lich being the only enemy left is impossible.

[bill1148]

Upon doing some heavy re-reading, dramonic is actually a decent candidate for Barbariccia.

[bill1148]

Also, 99.999% sure bill is lich, and I THINK he believes there's a second full scumgroup, his sudden change in philosophy is too odd (both now, and voting philosophies yesterday), as is his pushing of the most unsafe elemental to lynch out of the possibilities.

Umm...no, I'm not Lich. Nor do I have any idea what you mean when you say I am "pushing the most unsafe elemental lynch."

If I am a suspect for Lich, I suggest Glork or thatguy protect me to prove otherwise.

[bill1148]

3. JPSalazar (Galuf Baldesian [commuter: Earth element])
8. Glork (Rosa from FF4 [doctor])
10. Chronopie (Leviathan [Vig: Water element])
11. Antifinity (Fiona from Crystal Chronicals [vanilla])
13. thatguy00 (Ceodore Harvey from FF4: After Years [doctor])
16. bill1148 (Regent Cid from FF9 [vanilla])
17. dramonic (Ramuh [Lightning element])
19. AdumbroDeus (Ingus from FF3 [vanilla])
21. Midnight's Sorrow (Rikken from FF12 [vanilla])

And now all of our roles are in. I will offer the best analysis based on what I know.

First of all, does anyone want to explain what happened to Ifrit? The guy posts at the Inn for multiple nights, including Night 1, then just disappears?
Obviously, either someone decided to change their fake-claim, or he the player intending to originally claim him was killed. Which means fake-claims were likely in-place before the game started.

As far as observing the elements go, I just find it hilarious how every elemental claimed character has managed to survive, while every dead Town player (and there's plenty of them) have no element. Claiming an element is smart, because it prevents the player from trapping themselves if they get into an elemental lynch. Also, claiming an ability of any kind is 10x better than claiming vanilla. That is why I am most suspect of all elemental players (JP, dramonic, and Chrono)

Chrono = Cagnazzo
JP = Scarmiglione
dramonic = Barbarricia
Glork / thatguy / Adumbro / Midnight= Rubicante
Anti / Adumbro / JP = Lich

Chrono and JP are obvious. dramonic is a bit harder though. Barbarricia is a wind flavor and there are very few wind types in the Final Fantasy universe. Lightning is the closest thing to wind. Rubicante is just a shot in the dark, but I'm pretty confident that it's one of those four. Lich is definitely either Anti or Adumbro. It's still possible that Rubicante and Lich don't exist, however.

Players Blocked:

Anti (Night 2)
Devo (Night 3)
Kdub (Night 4)
thatguy (Night 5)

Players protected

-
-
Devo (by thatguy Night 2)
-
-
-
-
-
Glork (by thatguy Night 5

[blocked]

)
-

Players Doomed

none

(Day 1)
Starbuck (Day 2)
Devotress (Day 3)
Devotress (Day 4)

none

(Day 5)

Glork and thatguy need to post full results of doctor protection

I'd like to temporarily write off Glork, thatguy, Midnight, and Anti. For Glork and thatguy, their ability to kill zombie players would counteract no Vig. And if they were mafia, I'd be inclined to believe they'd claim an ability that isn't in the game, or rather an ability not possessed by someone else (this is presuming of course, that they don't trap themselves with their list of protections). Midnight claimed vanilla during Day 2, rather than element. Anti was blocked Night 2. It falls in line with another blocked player: kdub. Anti was highly suspected at the end of Day 1, just as Kdub was suspected right before he said he was blocked. Although it is possible that scum blocked him to take suspicion away from him, I think it more likely that they blocked him because they originally thought he was rival scum. When there was still an electrocution kill, plus a Doom kill that came from somewhere, they probably decided he had no abilities and left him alone.

Some other stuff-

Post 249 - dramonic is first player to mention Barbarricia.
Post 395 - Glork says Prana & Anti should be Vigged (Anti is blocked that night)
Post 435 - Chrono first to mention commuter
Devo is protected Night 2 by thatguy (possibly missing N2 kill), and is blocked/Doomed Night 3.

Something else I'd mention but I want to hear Glork/thatguy's protections first.

And JP is probably lying. He claimed Earth elemental in the same post he claimed Galuf: Commuter (Post 1443). Then he said he had no strengths or weaknesses (Post 1534). If thats true, WHY HAVE AN ELEMENT.

vote Chrono

[bill1148]

Chrono = Cagnazzo
JP = Scarmiglione
dramonic = Barbarricia
Glork / thatguy / Adumbro / Midnight= Rubicante
Anti / Adumbro / JP = Lich

Chrono and JP are obvious. dramonic is a bit harder though. Barbarricia is a wind flavor and there are very few wind types in the Final Fantasy universe. Lightning is the closest thing to wind. Rubicante is just a shot in the dark, but I'm pretty confident that it's one of those four. Lich is definitely either Anti or Adumbro. It's still possible that Rubicante and Lich don't exist, however.

I spy a scum slip. Can anyone else spot it? Hint: Look at the role assumptions.

Spit out what you have to say. Don't let

your scumbuddies

others talk for you.

[bill1148]

Just to clarify, what I meant by "I'm lich?" was, "I'm a top choice for lich?"

The list was in no particular order.

Yet at the same time, you switch to my recommended safe choice.

What are you talking about? Be specific, because I have said more than once that Chrono is the safest and he's the one I'm voting for.

[bill1148]

Chrono = Cagnazzo

JP = Scarmiglione

dramonic = Barbarricia
Glork / thatguy / Adumbro / Midnight= Rubicante

Anti / Adumbro / JP = Lich

Chrono and

JP are obvious.

dramonic is a bit harder though. Barbarricia is a wind flavor and there are very few wind types in the Final Fantasy universe. Lightning is the closest thing to wind. Rubicante is just a shot in the dark, but I'm pretty confident that it's one of those four.

Lich is definitely either Anti or Adumbro.

It's still possible that Rubicante and

Lich don't exist

, however.

I spy a scum slip. Can anyone else spot it? Hint: Look at the role assumptions.

Follow up on this. Basically Bill said: "JP is def. Scarmiglione (Who we have no

proof

exists), however, def. Scarmiglione can also be potential Lich, but the other potential Lichs cannot be Potential Scarmigliones? Therefore the

other two only

can be Lich, as in JP is def. Scarmiglione. and Lich doesn't necessarily exist."

What it reads as: "Hi, I'm Lich. The claimed earth is the only choice for the

other

Earth based scum, and two randomly selected VTs might be the role I actually am, as if I admit it, I'm going to die, either as today's lynch or tonight's NK, as I cannot be protected."

JP's pattern throughout the game follows Mafia 2 better than Mafia 1, and as such I am personally more inclined to think he's Scarmiglione. And I also listed Glork and thatguy as candidates for Rubicante, yet I said later in that post that I didn't suspect them. It only read as "Hi. I'm Lich" to you because you are well aware who Scarmiglione is.

But since you and your scumbuddies apparently think I"m Lich, you're more than welcome to kill me off tonight. Which is most likely the result your team is looking for tonight, I'm sure.

[bill1148]

NOW you're voting for Chrono, but you were saying you preferred JP while admitting that fact, not wiggling out of it that easily.

Dear Adumbo,

Please point to the specific post where I said "I prefer to lynch JP."

Your dearest and most concerned friend,
Bill

[bill1148]

Okay. It looks like thatguy and I are going to randomly protect ourselves or each other (just flip a coin, thatguy), and Lich needs to crosskill, or choose to nokill. Otherwise

LICH AND THE TOWN WILL LOSE

. Because the scums will kill Lich, and if Lich hits a townie, they'll have 3/6 players. So if Lich fuck up, I don't want to hear any postgame bullshit about messing up a kill.


Bill, please read and comment. You seem to be the only other person interested in working out the numbers game, so I want at least one person to doublecheck my thought process here.

Well, assuming the ratio right now is 4:4:1

If a Mafia from faction 2 is lynched, ratio is 4:3:1 (in Town's favor)

If Lich is killed and Lich kills a Town, ratio is 3:3 => Mafia 2 wins.

If Lich is killed and Lich doesn't kill, ratio is 4:3 => Town can still win.

If Lich is killed and Lich kills a mafia, ratio is 4:2 => Town can still win.

If Mafia 2 fails a kill and Lich doesn't kill, ratio is 4:3:1 => Town can still win.

If Mafia 2 fails a kill and Lich kills a Town, ratio is 3:3:1 => Town can still win.
If Mafia 2 fails a kill and Lich kills a mafia, ratio is 4:2:1 => Town can still win.

If Mafia 2 kills a Town and Lich kills a Town, ratio is 3:2:1 => Mafia 2 wins.

If Mafia 2 kills a Town and Lich kills a mafia, ratio is 3:2:1 => Town can still win.

If Mafia 2 kills a Town and Lich doesn't kill, ratio is 3:3:1 => Town can still win.

^All possible scenarios I can think of. Bold is our only chance.

[bill1148]

NOW you're voting for Chrono, but you were saying you preferred JP while admitting that fact, not wiggling out of it that easily.

Dear Adumbo,

Please point to the specific post where I said "I prefer to lynch JP."

Your dearest and most concerned friend,
Bill

Right here.

Doom being a Lich ability would still create the problem of multiple kills in one group, as there were two nights with both Electrocution and Doom.

Roleblocking SK isn't completely unreasonable, except I don't think it fits in with the slate of abilities over the course of the game.

I'm a little preoccupied, so I don't have time for a complete night action analysis. Plus, any such analysis is moot until Anti claims. Once we have all claims and actions in, I'll compile a COMPLETE list of all claims, known and unknown actions (with targets, where applicable), and I'll take a look at what loose ends we need to tie up.


At any rate, I think we have to assume that today is LyLo. Worst-case scenario, it is Lich + SK left, and we're not completely fucked. But if we assume Lich + SK and there turns out to be a second mafia, we could easily lose today.

Quick thoughts, what if doom is balanced like an ability instead of a kill?

We seem to have a lot of strong pro-town abilities, though my concern there is "what's his kill flavor?".



Still, if it's another mafia we're dealing with, there is no vig. Lynching our claimed vig might be the safest move. Chrono claimed to be the drowning vig, right? Killing him seems like a pretty safe move, if he flips scum, we're dealing with 2 mafias.


If he flips town and there's a SK on the loose though, it's still a strong disadvantage.



If he flips indie, we laugh, we dance, we party, and we've got only 1 scum left.


Thoughts?

Lynching Chrono

is

the safest move. If he's really a Vig, there there is likely no second scum, but an SK.

That said, I'd much prefer to get rid of our Doomer or our brown cloaked fellow ASAP (Doom not so much, since it is pretty useless at this point) And Chrono would fit into neither category, I just think he's a scum member who's been submitting kills.

Dear Chrono,

Please point to where the name

JP

appears in this post.

Thanks,
Bill

[bill1148]

If there is no Mafia 2

8:1

We lynch Lich => Town Win
We lynch a vanilla, Lich kills => 6:1 town can still win.
We Lynch a Vanilla, Lich doesn't kill/Fails to kill => 7:1 town can still win.

--

I also notice that you have Lich no-killing, rather than just failing a kill, while the inverse for the mythical Mafia 2.

What you're suggesting is that Lich roleblocks + has a "Reduced to Nothing" kill + Dooms.

Yeah right.

[bill1148]

Okay. It looks like thatguy and I are going to randomly protect ourselves or each other (just flip a coin, thatguy), and Lich needs to crosskill, or choose to nokill. Otherwise

LICH AND THE TOWN WILL LOSE

. Because the scums will kill Lich, and if Lich hits a townie, they'll have 3/6 players. So if Lich fuck up, I don't want to hear any postgame bullshit about messing up a kill.


Bill, please read and comment. You seem to be the only other person interested in working out the numbers game, so I want at least one person to doublecheck my thought process here.

Well, assuming the ratio right now is 4:4:1

If a Mafia from faction 2 is lynched, ratio is 4:3:1 (in Town's favor)

If Lich is killed and Lich kills a Town, ratio is 3:3 => Mafia 2 wins.

If Lich is killed and Lich doesn't kill, ratio is 4:3 => Town can still win.

If Lich is killed and Lich kills a mafia, ratio is 4:2 => Town can still win.

If Mafia 2 fails a kill and Lich doesn't kill, ratio is 4:3:1 => Town can still win.

If Mafia 2 fails a kill and Lich kills a Town, ratio is 3:3:1 => Town can still win.
If Mafia 2 fails a kill and Lich kills a mafia, ratio is 4:2:1 => Town can still win.

If Mafia 2 kills a Town and Lich kills a Town, ratio is 3:2:1 => Mafia 2 wins.

If Mafia 2 kills a Town and Lich kills a mafia, ratio is 3:2:1 => Town can still win.

If Mafia 2 kills a Town and Lich doesn't kill, ratio is 3:3:1 => Town can still win.

All possible scenarios I can think of. Bold is our only chance.

^This is assuming that the doctors protect themselves/each other, rather than trying to kill Scarmiglione or Lich.

But if they do, then to add to the above:

If the doctor kills Lich, Mafia 2 kills Town, and Lich kills Town, ratio is 3:2 => Mafia 2 wins.
If the doctor kills Lich, Mafia 2's kill fails, and Lich kills Town, ratio is 3:3 => Mafia 2 wins.

If the doctor kills Lich, Mafia 2 kills Town, and Lich kills Mafia, ratio is 3:2 => Town can still win.
If the doctor kills Lich, Mafia 2's kill fails, and Lich kills Mafia, ratio is 4:2 =>Town can still win.
If the doctor kills Lich, Mafia 2's kill fails, and Lich's kill fails, ratio is 4:3 =>Town can still win.
If the doctor kills Scarmiglione, Mafia 2 kills Town, and Lich kills Town, ratio is 2:2:1 => Town can still win.
If the doctor kills Scarmiglione, Mafia 2's kill fails, and Lich kills Town, ratio is 3:2:1 => Town can still win.
If the doctor kills Scarmiglione, Mafia 2 kills Town, and Lich kills Mafia, ratio is 3:1:1 => Town can still win.
If the doctor kills Scarmiglione, Mafia 2's kill fails, and Lich kills Mafia, ratio is 4:1:1 => Town can still win.
If the doctor kills Scarmiglione, Mafia 2 kills Lich, and Lich kills Town, ratio is 3:2 => Town can still win.
If the doctor kills Scarmiglione, Mafia 2 kills Lich, and Lich kills Mafia, ratio is 4:1 => Town can still win.
If the doctor kills Scarmiglione, Mafia 2's kill fails, and Lich's kill fails, ratio is 4:2:1 => Town can still win.

[bill1148]

As I said before, you previous equated scarm/lich with JP, in that post you said you'd prefer to take out scarm/lich.

If x=y y=x, the point is that in that post you said you'd prefer to go after the earth elemental scum even while Chrono was the safe choice.

Now you're just making sh!t up.

[bill1148]

Good game.

[bill1148]

Thoughts:

-I don't like that the fact that there was a death miller in a game with two scum teams.
-Doctors were slightly over-powered (two of them, both could kill two scum members, both could self protect)
-The inn that had all the deceased players talking was lulz.
-Looking back on it, probably should have doomed Glork night 1. It would have made lynching Chrono and JP much easier earlier in the game, given that Glork had a town-read on them during those early Day Phases. And killing a self-protect doctor was important.
-I have no regrets with my choice of actions during my last night phase. At that point, all Arch-Fiend scum members (Chrono, JP, Adumbro, dramonic) made it abudantly clear that I was Lich, so I was going to die anyway. In the small chance I didn't die, then they would have had to block & kill a doctor, which would have evened the odds out for me if I would have survived that night (3:2:1). In the case of the latter scenario where I survive the night, it's fairly unlikely that Town would have utilized Doom in the case that Adumbro turned up town. Also, a part of me felt more compelled to help Town, although Town played like crap for the first 4 Day Phases.
-Lich is the most badass character in the game. 'nuff said.
-Player of the game goes to Glork.