Square Enix Mafia I: Diabolus Erus (GAME OVER)

[Glork]

I still believe that Drowned is a Vigilante. It's silly for scums to kill a superlurker.

It would have been equally silly for scums to kill DTM last night. DTM was obnoxiously wrong on so many accounts, it's not even funny.,

[Glork]

EBWOP: And yes, that means I think that the Electrocution kill last night was either blocked or protected against.

[Glork]

So as Kdub was RB'd (apparently), does that make him mafia?

I haven't decided. Personally, I think it's more likely that the kill was protected against than blocked. Two reasons for this.

First, I still have a hard time believing that KDub would flat-out admit that he was roleblocked if he were making the Electrocution kills.

Secondly, I feel that there are about three-ish players who are very, very clearly protown (myself included). They make obvious kill targets, and therefore obvious protect targets.



That said, I still suspect KDub a decent amount for the points I raised against him the other day. I haven't really had a chance to respond to KDub's rebuttals, but I've been busy and now I am wholly focused on getting MehPlusRawr lynched today. KDub can wait, if only for a little while.

[Glork]

tl;dr
1. MPR lurks.
2. MPR says that a wagon stopping was good (when I was clearly, at least clearly to me inferring that it was bad)
3.MPR is lurking.
4. MPR is stupid.

I lurk. Yup. I suck at scumhunting. Yup.

Those aren't scumtells. Sorry.

Also, why do you keep referring to yourself in third person?

Good job giving up.

You can explain why you haven't bothered to comment on any three fourths of the players in the game, or why you haven't brought up an original point against anyone except Prana (and I guess "IIoA" towards Anti, which hardly counts as that's a nontell).

Your tl;dr is a grossly inaccurate misrepresentation of the case against you, and you are apparently too lazy to even try to defend yourself properly.

Obviously if you're protown, you've done nothing to help the town so far, and you're doing nothing to prevent a lynch on a townie. Thus, I can only continue to surmise that you are scum.

[Glork]

Setup speculation over lynching confirmed scum? Please.


KDub, do you honestly believe that we'll figure anything out without seeing at least one or two more scum corpses? Because we've spent 3+ days (and nights) talking in circles and we still don't even know how many scumgroups there are, what size they are, whether there's an SK, or where most of the kills are actually coming from. And unless people start claiming (which I would

NOT

suggest), we're not GOING to know until we've found more scums.

[Glork]

BTW: MPR, please link me to

no less than four games

in which you ignored the vast majority of the game's players for most of the game. I want to see if that behavior is in fact "fairly common" for you. That's the biggest non-defense in the world.

[Glork]

BTW, with six people HoSing MPR, he should claim. It's equivalent to being at Lynch -1.

I'm curious to see what fakeclaim he comes up with.

[Glork]

Meh, can you self protect?

[Glork]

Also, the odds of MPR lying are astronomically high. Someone posted as Rosa Farrell N1 in the QuickTopic, and that's very clearly a Doctor role, as she is a White Mage.


Don't buy it. Lynch posthaste.

---

Vote Count:

Someone is wearing a charm bangle...

Not Voting:

AdumbroDeus
Antifinity
bill1148
Chronopie
Devotress
dramonic
Glork
JPSalazar
KDub
MehPlusRawr
thatguy00
wolframnhart

Lynch:

7 votes.

Deadline:

June 15th - 9:00 PM EST

[Glork]

Yeah, Doc claim is the only sensible thing for scum to do here, especially when he's caught in the manner he is and doesn't have a legit response. I think it's very apparent that he's scum and just hoping to out the Doctor for a nightkill.

[Glork]

if theres a vig, target me tonight, I can self protect, that would surely clear me right?

There appears to be a musickal roleblocker going 'round these parts. Bad plan.

thatguy, to clarify: Are you saying you're Rosa?

[Glork]

thatguy, to clarify: Are you saying you're Rosa?

[Glork]

Yeah, you ought to know your rolename, dude.

[Glork]

Parallel to Rosa. I'm willing to believe it.


That means if you're a Doc and Rosa's still out there, then Meh is

DEFINITELY

lying. And Rosa should definitely protect thatguy tonight.


I'd vote, but I'm blind. Please lynch the scumbag immediately.

[Glork]

Yeah, Bill that was rather idiotic of you and definitely gives you minus points.

I can't vote but I would suggest that the next few people to read the thread just post that you're around and see if we can't get three voters on at the same time. We can still save Devo if we are smart about it, and I like having confirmed townies around.

[Glork]

I request to claim last.

In the meantime, in light of the last two flips, I really only have one thing to post:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GdLXfGTNBgE

[Glork]

Interesting that no one was doomed last night. I'm going to assume that our Doomer decided it is pointless to use the ability any longer, since it only gives away other player's factions. Which means Doom is defintely not a Vig or SK.

You were just so sure that nobody was Doomed. I know I was targeted because I received the PM. It's either you, Anti, or Glork that targeted me. At first, I wanted to just ignore the failed Doom and see if the Doomer would slip up, but thank you for completely blowing my attempt to wait for that to happen.

You're most likely the Doomer, primarily because you've simply poked in and out, and so many people have been receiving scummy vibes off of you for a while. I'd refer to the Inn and people's posts in there, but to be honest, I don't know if that's allowed.

Possibly silly question, but how do you KNOW that one of the three of us targeted you last night?

[Glork]

Also, pro fucking tip, guys.

The lack of kill is because of Rosa -- the second doctor, not some roleblocker. ELEPHANT IN THE FUCKING ROOM.

[Glork]

Antifinity's role should be very obvious, too, but I will let him claim to see if he doesn't trap himself (if he happens to be scum).

I'm actually thinking there's one Mafia and one SK left, and that's it. Not really convinced of a second four-person scumgroup anymore.




I tried to make my breadcrumbing more and more obvious as the game went on, but I'm surprised it took anybody this long to catch on. Anyway, to make it official, I'm

Rosa Farrell, Doctor

.

Thatguy is 99% confirmed to me for two reasons:
1) He correctly identified that he could protect himself. (Yes, I can cast cure on myself.)
2) His rolename is a very close parallel to my own rolename. (Rosa is a White Mage in FFIV, and Cedore is her son and the main protagonist of FFIV: The After Years.)

I will now 99% confirm myself to him by pointing out one thing:
If one of us "protects" Lich, we will almost certainly kill him. Soon as I read my role PM, I guessed either Lich or scum with the Zombify ability, to cover possible unintended consequences of protecting someone.

I will not claim my targets yet in case Anti is scum, but I will do so (with complete reasoning) as soon as he pops in and claims.

[Glork]

Actually, there seem to be too many anti-town abilities for there to be just two scums left.

I need to think about this for a while.

[Glork]

Doom being a Lich ability would still create the problem of multiple kills in one group, as there were two nights with both Electrocution and Doom.

Roleblocking SK isn't completely unreasonable, except I don't think it fits in with the slate of abilities over the course of the game.

I'm a little preoccupied, so I don't have time for a complete night action analysis. Plus, any such analysis is moot until Anti claims. Once we have all claims and actions in, I'll compile a COMPLETE list of all claims, known and unknown actions (with targets, where applicable), and I'll take a look at what loose ends we need to tie up.


At any rate, I think we have to assume that today is LyLo. Worst-case scenario, it is Lich + SK left, and we're not completely fucked. But if we assume Lich + SK and there turns out to be a second mafia, we could easily lose today.

[Glork]

It's *possible* that one of us is a scum doctor, but the whole "I can protect myself" thing really sealed the deal for me, along with the similar rolename origin. It's pretty rare to have the self-protect clause in a Doctor role PM, because it's decently powerful. If that's the case, then scum have clearly been given fakeclaims, so that's something to keep in mind.

Also, after reading some stuff, Anti's role isn't nearly as obvious as I initially thought.

My suspicion of Dramonic has once again risen dramatically. Dram, please vote for JP so we can get a votecount. I want to see if I can confirm at least the Lightning Element aspect of your role.

[Glork]

EBWOP: "If having a scum doctor is the case..."

[Glork]

Oh, sorry... I thought Earth was resistant to Lightning. It's Earth/Wind, though. Brain fart.

A mafia doctor may exist if there are two scumgroups. But as I posted, I don't see it as being very likely at all.

[Glork]

but barbariccia would be wind.
Isn't that the reason you wanted me to vote JP?

I was thinking that your vote wouldn't count if he were earth and you were lightning. What the fuck does Barbariccia have to do with anything?

[Glork]

but barbariccia would be wind.
Isn't that the reason you wanted me to vote JP?

I was thinking that your vote wouldn't count if he were earth and you were lightning. What the fuck does Barbariccia have to do with anything?

You said the possibility of 2 scum team resurfaced for you and that your suspicion of me went back up. My assumption was that you think I'm fakeclaiming and am Barbariccia, since that's the closest to my element in the other archfiends (with Tiamat dead and all).

I'm still confused as to how you think that "2 scum teams" led to me thinking you were scum. The two thoughts were entirely unrelated. In fact, I didn't even post that I was more suspicious of you until several posts AFTER I said there may be two scumgroups.

This sounds a bit like a guilty conscience speaking.

(On a sidenote, I also had no idea who the fuck Barbariccia is until you mentioned the name. Had to go look it up myself.)






Could somebody else please glance over N1 and N2 of the QuickTopic and point out the elephant(s) in the room?

Also,

MOD: PLEASE PROD ANTI

[Glork]

1487 - "Too many anti-town abilities" for there to be Mafia + SK

1502 - "Suspicion of Dram has risen dramatically"

[Glork]

And that's why Isos lead to fail assumptions, especially in a fast-paced game.

---

Vote Count:

bill1148: 1

(JPSalazar)

Antifinity: 1

(Chronopie)

Not Voting:

AdumbroDeus
Antifinity
bill1148
dramonic
Glork
Midnight's Sorrow
thatguy00

Lynch:

5 votes.

Deadline:

June 25th - 5:00 PM EST

[Glork]

@Glork & thatguy

- Do you have any strengths/weaknesses (like dramonic and Chrono)? If so, name them please.

You mean an element? Nope. Nothing here.

Like I said, my PM indicates that using protective magic can have some side effects. I immediately assumed that meant that there was an Undead-typed player in the game, and/or that a scum had the ability to put the Zombie status on others. Aside from that (and the fact that I could self-protect), it's run-of-the-mill.


Also, Bill, I disagree that Chrono is the safest lynch today. I am also leaning towards there being 1 of Scum A, 4 of Scum B, and 4 town left. But unless Chrono is the

ONLY

person we can identify as being "likely scum," he should be kept alive and able to kill. That way, if we

do

mislynch and he

is

a Vig, he has a reasonable chance to keep us in the game.

[Glork]

Well if theres only four townies.... Someones lying.

Yes, generally the scums lie and pretend that they are town.

[Glork]

It's very possible if Doom is the second kill (though admittedly, that'd be extremely weak at this point). I feel very strongly that Tiamat tried to kill again (worked every night before last night), and that I protected whomever he targeted. But then again, I feel this way because I know who I protected last night.

I'm not sure... I'm kind of commenting as I go right now, and not taking into consideration every known action over the course of the entire game. Like I said, if Anti ever gets in here and claims, I will compile a complete list of claimed roles/actions, known action results, and other implied/claimed information.

Basically, the one thing that's tripping me up no matter what theory I try to come up with is the "Reduced to Nothingness" kill N1. If that's the same group as Doom, why aren't they using that instead? If it's not, where the fuck did it come from and why hasn't it been used since N1? I honestly have absolutely no idea what to make of it right now. It doesn't seem to fit anywhere.

[Glork]

N1, I protected Glork, because I figured I was the best asset to the town

N2, I protected Glork, because I figured I was still the best asset to the town

N3, I protected Devo because she was very obviously protown

N4, I protected Devo, because she was very obviously protown

--NOTE: My protections did

NOT

prevent Devo from being Doomed, which actually kind of pissed me off. N3, I was debating between myself, inHim, and Devo and went with Devo. Then inHim turned up dead and Devo got doomed. I sent Kise a very irritated PM after that.

N5, I WIFOM'd and protected myself, because I knew the scums would assume thatguy was being protected by Rosa, and I predicted a "block thatguy, kill Glork" attempt.




Ifrit was one of the "elephants in the room" I had in mind when referring to reviewing the QuickTopic. The other is the fact that our "???" man, who said Tidus is not in the game, never claimed.

[Glork]

And JP is probably lying. He claimed Earth elemental in the same post he claimed Galuf: Commuter (Post 1443). Then he said he had no strengths or weaknesses (Post 1534). If thats true, WHY HAVE AN ELEMENT.

Based on this, JP is a better lynch than Chrono. Like I said earlier, if we

are

wrong about Chrono and he is a Vig, then he should be kept alive. Chrono is only the best lynch if he is the

ONLY

likely scum around.

But this is a pretty nice catch.

BTW: I has Tech secret info (Borrowing a phrase from SpyreX lol), relating to Doom.

Spill it now or die. Also, explain why you didn't reveal your leet tech earlier.


Chrono: What role do you think Bill has?

[Glork]

EBWOP: Actually, I should reword that first sentence. JP is a

safer

lynch than Chrono, because of "in case we are wrong," etc. If we're certain that both are scum, then neither can really be called "better" than the other unless one of the two is Lich.



With the absence of any kind of tracker or watcher, the people who claimed roles with no actions are clearly the front-runners for fakeclaims.

It's possible that scum were given falseclaim PMs, but I'm still very inclined to believe that thatguy is protown. He and I very, very probably are of the same alignment, and it'd be silly to not have a single protective role in a game with multiple scumgroups.

[Glork]

Also, time for action analysis.

I am going to assume that "Ifrit" was bv setting up a fakeclaim. (Incidentally, that makes me question Dram more than I normally would.)

Night Action Analysis

Night One

KDub(Tiamat) electrocutes RECKONER
MehPlusRawr(Kraken) blinds Glork

Glork(Rosa) protects Glork
thatguy00(Cedore) protects ???

??? Reduces Albert B. Rampage to Nothingness
??? roleblocks ???
Doom?

Night Two

KDub(Tiamat) electrocutes Nautilus
MehPlusRawr(Kraken) blinds Midnight(was wolframnhart)

Glork("Rosa") protects Glork
thatguy("Cedore") protects ???

??? roleblocks Antifinity
??? dooms Starbuck

Night Three

KDub(Tiamat) electrocutes inHim
MehPlusRawr(Kraken) blinds KDub

Chrono("Leviathan") drowns bv

Glork("Rosa") protects Devo
thatguy("Cedore") protects ???

??? roleblocks Devo
??? dooms Devo

Night Four

No Electrocution Kill - KDub(Tiamat) roleblocked?
MehPlusRawr(Kraken) blinds Glork

Chrono("Leviathan") drowns DTMaster

Glork("Rosa") protects Devo
thatguy("Cedore") protects Glork

??? roleblocks KDub
??? dooms Devo

Night Five

No electrocution kill - tried to kill Glork?

Chrono("Leviathan") drowns KDub

JP Commutes

Glork("Rosa") protects Glork
thatguy("Cedore") protects Glork but is blocked

??? blocks thatguy
??? dooms JP(Commuted)

FOLLOW-UP QUESTIONS:

JP:

On which night(s) have you commuted? What are the rules/restrictions on your ability commute?

Thatguy:

Who did you protects N1 through N3? Why?

General:

Where the fuck did the "Tidus isn't in this game" post come from?

General:

What prospective antagonist(s) could N1 "reduced to nothingness" come from?

General:

Is Doom a second kill option for the Tiamat/Kraken/Marilith/Lich group, or could it come from an alternate role/killer/SK/group?

[Glork]

And my pesronal analysis:

-- From where I'm sitting, it looks decently likely that "Reduced to Nothingness" happened N1, and possibly N2. When it failed, the scums picked a new killer (Chronopie, which happened to coincide with them starting to crosskill. Perfect excuse to make a "vig" out of nothing.

-- Not sure about the Doom thing. I still don't like the idea that a scum could have two kills per day, especially as the D1 kill would be largely unavoidable. It is possible that Doom was blocked N1 (nobody claimed to have been blocked) but has been trying to kille very night. If Doom does belong to Lich, I think it's decently likely that it was disallowed as an ability N1 due to the D1 lynch threshold.

-- Five people (Glork, Anti, FC - now Adumbro, wolfram as crybaby - now Midnight, and Chrono) all posted during the same night that "???" posted. I don't think this is significant or could lead us to anything concrete, but it seems to me that "???" is/was some kind of scum with an investigative ability, and that they decided not to claim here in endgame. If "???" is still alive, then they would be among (Bill, JP, Dramonic, thatguy). It is worth noting that Dram posted in the QuickTopic on three OTHER nights, though.

-- It seems obvious (to me) that thatguy and I are both town. At the very least, it is extremely likely that we have the same alignment, as I alluded to earlier. We were both able to name aspects of the Protection Mechanic that are fairly unique to this game, so we both obviously have knowledge of how protection works. Now, two things are possible that could make either of us scum: There is a Mafia Doctor (though this does not fit with our projected rolenames remaining); or the scums were given full role PM fakeclaims with the ability to ask/get explanations about protection mechanics.

-- The nature of the missing kill N2 makes me wonder... but I don't think it is possible for us to figure out WHY it wasn't there. It's possible that Anti is "Reduced to Nothigness" person who got blocked. It's possible that the scums tried to kill me. It's possible that the scums tried to kill whomever Thatguy protected. We have no way of knowing this at this point, and the best we can do is say "there is a missing scumkill for an unknown reason" at this point.



I'm actually leaning towards lynching Chrono rather than JP for two reasons.
1) If JP is in fact undead, either thatguy or I could potentially kill him. There's no confirmation that protecting undead would kill them, but that's the extremely educated guess I've made on that.
2) Right now, Chrono is the most likely scum from my perspective:
--2a) The aformentioned kill analysis suggests that, if the scums tried to kill every night, then Reduced to Nothigness doesn't overlap with Drowned, but the other kill methods all overlap in ways that don't make much sense. I originally paired Nothingness with Doom because Nothigness happened N1, and Doom happened from N2 onwards, but given how uniquely Doom works (and the fact that it is easily avoidable after D2), there is ZERO reason to use Nothingness N1 and Doom every other night. That logic is completely backwards.
--2b) Chrono seems to conclude that Bill is a decent Lich candidate, and wants to lynch Bill. But if there are 4 scums, and Chrono is among them, then he's obviously playing for autowin right here and now. There are too many anti-town abilities to support "Lich + an SK" which Chrono seems to conveniently ignore... and he's could go "but I can vig someone!" which he knows is an a base assumption no other protown player could possibly make.




So yeah. I'm pretty content with a Chronolynch right now. I do want Thatguy's N1-N3 role actions before I rush into a decision, though.... just in case that changes anything.

[Glork]

To expand a little bit on my second note (Doom), keep in the wayyyyy back of your head the possibility of a Serial Killer

in addition

to two mafia groups.


Mafia Group 1:
Goon (Tiamat)
Goon (Marilith)
Politician (Kraken)
Something Undeadish (Lich)

Mafia Group 2:
Roleblocker (Barbariccia? Fuck if I know)
Goon (Leviathan)
Goon (Cagnazzo?)
Something Undeadish (Scarmiglione)

SK:
Something that Dooms.


It's possible...There are even other possibliities (Iece actually being scum) that are also unknowable right now, but distinctly possible. But I think we still have to play today as if we MUST lynch one of "Mafia Group 2," whether Doom comes from a Serial Killer or not.

[Glork]

Also,

NOBODY VOTE UNTIL WE HAVE COME TO A DECISION AND I HAVE A CHANCE TO WORK OUT NIGHT ACTIONS BETWEEN ME AND THATGUY

.

I have something in mind that I think will force the scums to take some extreme risks and/or pigeonhole themselves into taking certain actions.


But if anybody even puts someone at Lynch-1 (scum can always self-hammer) before I get a chance to talk to thatguy, I

WILL

push for your lynch tomorrow, no questions asked.



Do I make myself absolutely clear? Please quote this post and confirm that you won't do anything rash until I can coordinate with thatguy.

[Glork]

Yes, and that's exactly how I felt up until I did my nightkill analysis and read over Chrono's posts on Page 63.

Typically, if your scumgroup has a kill fail, you'll switch targets and switch the person making your kill. You don't know whether your kill got protected against or whether it got roleblocked, but you want your next kill to have as high a chance of resolving as possible. So:
N1 Nothingness kill
N2 Nothingness kill failed (blocked or protected, unknown)
N3 - switch to Drowning kill, make it look like a Vig
N4 - Drown "vig"
N5 - Drown "vig"

...makes the most sense to me. It's the smartest play for scum to make, and it has even worked so far, as I assumed "Drowning Vig" up until last night/today.





To me, it's not a question anymore of the "possibility" of Chrono being a vig, or JP being a commuter. It's a matter of

likelihood

. And Chrono looks very

likely

to be scum, while I'm a little undecided about JP.

Like I said, if JP is lying, he (or anyone else) can easily be checked for Undeadness tonight. Chrono definitely does drowning, so if we mislynch JP, neither thatguy nor I can kill JP tonight.


Here's what I currently propose:
Lynch Chrono.

If he is Leviathan/Vig, both thatguy AND I will target JP with "protections." Even if JP is a scum commuter, it's highly unlikely that he can commute two nights in a row, so we are pretty much guaranteed to kill him, since they can only block one of us (presumably),

If Chrono is Cagnazzo or whatever other scum, then thatguy and I will each RANDOMLY choose one of the following four actions:
Protect Glork
Protect thatguy
"Protect" JP
"Protect" Bill
That makes the scum either play it "safe" and be fairly ineffective, or take a risk and potentially have multiple dead scums (and/or no scumkill).

[Glork]

EBWOP:

Chrono definitely does drowning, so if we mislynch JP, neither thatguy nor I can kill Chrono tonight.

[Glork]

No lynch is a TERRIBLE idea. There is ZERO benefit to no-lynching, rather than just lynching likely scums.



Good effort, Chrono, but no. You're going to die today.

[Glork]

Also, Chrono: How did you come across such information?

And like I said, what role do you think Bill has? Do you think he's Lich? If so, why lynch him instead of someone from the FULL SCUMGROUP?

[Glork]

Hmm, there is a potential issue here.

If we lynch Chrono as part of Mafia2 and Lich and one townsperson die tonight, then the scums will win with 3 mafia out of 6 alive. It looks like Lich

MUST

crosskill tonight for this game to continue.


Thinking. I'm considering trying to work towards a Lich/Town draw, if Kise will allow it. That would require Lich to come out and claim, though, and I'm not sure I can convince them to do it.


Need to think about numbers a bit.

[Glork]

Okay. It looks like thatguy and I are going to randomly protect ourselves or each other (just flip a coin, thatguy), and Lich needs to crosskill, or choose to nokill. Otherwise

LICH AND THE TOWN WILL LOSE

. Because the scums will kill Lich, and if Lich hits a townie, they'll have 3/6 players. So if Lich fuck up, I don't want to hear any postgame bullshit about messing up a kill.


Bill, please read and comment. You seem to be the only other person interested in working out the numbers game, so I want at least one person to doublecheck my thought process here.

[Glork]

Also ftr: I'm willing to make a 1:1 trade. We lynch Bill, and if he's Vanilla (not Lich), I'll take the rope tomorrow.

If Bill is Lich and you are part of the second scumgroup, you will win tonight and the town will lose. This is

NOT HAPPENING

, so

GIVE IT UP

. I've already told you this like twice and you're STILL trying to push this bullshit autowin strategy. Furthermore, I

DIRECTLY ASKED YOU WHY YOU WANT TO LYNCH LICH INSTEAD OF SOMEONE FROM THE OTHER SCUMGROUP, AND YOU HAVE BLATANTLY IGNORED MY QUESTION

, even though you answered the OTHER questions I asked in the EXACT SAME POST:

Also, Chrono: How did you come across such information?

And like I said, what role do you think Bill has? Do you think he's Lich? If so, why lynch him instead of someone from the FULL SCUMGROUP?

So apparently I have to play hardball. Chrono, I won't tell you how I feel about your four potential Lich suspects until I'm satisfied with every answer you have to give me.

[Glork]

If there is no Mafia 2

8:1

We lynch Lich => Town Win
We lynch a vanilla, Lich kills => 6:1 town can still win.
We Lynch a Vanilla, Lich doesn't kill/Fails to kill => 7:1 town can still win.

--

I also notice that you have Lich no-killing, rather than just failing a kill, while the inverse for the mythical Mafia 2.

ARE YOU REALLY SUGGESTING THAT LICH CAN KILL, DOOM, AND ROLEBLOCK ALL PACKAGED INTO ONE, AND THAT HE IS THE ONLY SCUM LEFT IN THE GAME?

For fuck's sake, Chorno. You are 100% confirmed scum at this point.

[Glork]

Also, it's pretty obvious that the scumgroup is {Chrono, JP, Dumbro, Dram} given the triplegangbang on Bill, even though I've pointed out a billion times over that if Bill is Lich, he

SHOULD NOT BE LYNCHED TODAY

.


Protip, guys: Tunnel-visioning on outing the last scum in the mostly-dead scumgroup isn't good town play. The ONLY town play today is to lynch someone from the FULL scumgroup.




So I have three questions that I demand Chrono, Dram, and Dumbro each answer in each of their next posts:

1) WHY HAVEN'T YOU BOTHERED TO LOOK FOR SCUM OUTSIDE OF BILL, ESPECIALLY IF YOU THINK BILL IS LICH?
2) WHICH FOUR PLAYERS DO YOU THINK ARE IN THE SECOND SCUMGROUP, AND WHY?
3) WHO DO YOU WANT TO LYNCH TODAY, AND WHY?

[Glork]

Okay. It looks like thatguy and I are going to randomly protect ourselves or each other (just flip a coin, thatguy), and Lich needs to crosskill, or choose to nokill. Otherwise

LICH AND THE TOWN WILL LOSE

. Because the scums will kill Lich, and if Lich hits a townie, they'll have 3/6 players. So if Lich fuck up, I don't want to hear any postgame bullshit about messing up a kill.


Bill, please read and comment. You seem to be the only other person interested in working out the numbers game, so I want at least one person to doublecheck my thought process here.

Well, assuming the ratio right now is 4:4:1

If a Mafia from faction 2 is lynched, ratio is 4:3:1 (in Town's favor)

If Lich is killed and Lich kills a Town, ratio is 3:3 => Mafia 2 wins.

If Lich is killed and Lich doesn't kill, ratio is 4:3 => Town can still win.

If Lich is killed and Lich kills a mafia, ratio is 4:2 => Town can still win.

If Mafia 2 fails a kill and Lich doesn't kill, ratio is 4:3:1 => Town can still win.

If Mafia 2 fails a kill and Lich kills a Town, ratio is 3:3:1 => Town can still win.
If Mafia 2 fails a kill and Lich kills a mafia, ratio is 4:2:1 => Town can still win.

If Mafia 2 kills a Town and Lich kills a Town, ratio is 3:2:1 => Mafia 2 wins.

If Mafia 2 kills a Town and Lich kills a mafia, ratio is 3:2:1 => Town can still win.

If Mafia 2 kills a Town and Lich doesn't kill, ratio is 3:3:1 => Town can still win.

All possible scenarios I can think of. Bold is our only chance.

^This is assuming that the doctors protect themselves/each other, rather than trying to kill Scarmiglione or Lich.

But if they do, then to add to the above:

If the doctor kills Lich, Mafia 2 kills Town, and Lich kills Town, ratio is 3:2 => Mafia 2 wins.
If the doctor kills Lich, Mafia 2's kill fails, and Lich kills Town, ratio is 3:3 => Mafia 2 wins.

If the doctor kills Lich, Mafia 2 kills Town, and Lich kills Mafia, ratio is 3:2 => Town can still win.
If the doctor kills Lich, Mafia 2's kill fails, and Lich kills Mafia, ratio is 4:2 =>Town can still win.
If the doctor kills Lich, Mafia 2's kill fails, and Lich's kill fails, ratio is 4:3 =>Town can still win.
If the doctor kills Scarmiglione, Mafia 2 kills Town, and Lich kills Town, ratio is 2:2:1 => Town can still win.
If the doctor kills Scarmiglione, Mafia 2's kill fails, and Lich kills Town, ratio is 3:2:1 => Town can still win.
If the doctor kills Scarmiglione, Mafia 2 kills Town, and Lich kills Mafia, ratio is 3:1:1 => Town can still win.
If the doctor kills Scarmiglione, Mafia 2's kill fails, and Lich kills Mafia, ratio is 4:1:1 => Town can still win.
If the doctor kills Scarmiglione, Mafia 2 kills Lich, and Lich kills Town, ratio is 3:2 => Town can still win.
If the doctor kills Scarmiglione, Mafia 2 kills Lich, and Lich kills Mafia, ratio is 4:1 => Town can still win.
If the doctor kills Scarmiglione, Mafia 2's kill fails, and Lich's kill fails, ratio is 4:2:1 => Town can still win.

Keep in mind that if the Doctors try to kill Lich instead of protecting, then the odds of Mafia 2 failing a kill are astronomically small.

And I've stated that Thatguy and I should protect ourselves/each other. So of the first-case scenarios you listed,

Lich must crosskill/nokill, unless we happen to actually get a successful protection against Mafia 2's kill

.

So yeah. Bill, if you're Lich, you should know what you have to do. I know I used WIFOM last night to ninja-protect myself, but I promise none of that this time around. I will be flipping a coin to protect myself or thatguy, 100% guarantee. It gives the town the best odds for survival.

[Glork]

Apologies for the walls of text and multiposting. My mind is running quite fast right now and I don't want to stop.


----


Thatguy, Antifinity, Midnight (and Bill): Do you agree with my assessment of the second scumgroup?

If not, who do you think is in the second scumgroup?

If so, do you think it might be worthwhile to try and lynch the Mafia2 Roleblocker instead of Chrono today?


That would greatly increase our chances of not-dying, I think.

[Glork]

Ooh.


Lich can also doom a suspected scum tonight, and we can run the counter down intentionally. Hadn't thought about that.

MOD: What is the win condition for anti-town (Mafialike) factions?
Hypothetically, if the game situation is 6 players with 3 in the same scumgroup (for a 3:3 or 3:2:1 ratio) but one of the "3 in the same scumgroup" can be killed during the day, will the game continue?

[Glork]

WHAT SECOND SCUMGROUP?
WHAT SECOND SCUMGROUP?

[

ARE YOU REALLY SUGGESTING THAT LICH CAN KILL, DOOM, AND ROLEBLOCK ALL PACKAGED INTO ONE, AND THAT HE IS THE ONLY SCUM LEFT IN THE GAME?

[

ARE YOU REALLY SUGGESTING THAT LICH CAN KILL, DOOM, AND ROLEBLOCK ALL PACKAGED INTO ONE, AND THAT HE IS THE ONLY SCUM LEFT IN THE GAME?

[

ARE YOU REALLY SUGGESTING THAT LICH CAN KILL, DOOM, AND ROLEBLOCK ALL PACKAGED INTO ONE, AND THAT HE IS THE ONLY SCUM LEFT IN THE GAME?

[Glork]

But yes, you're right about the No Lynch thing. I hadn't noticed that.

[Glork]

Also, Chrono, I would love for you to explain how Lich is a "man in a brown cloak."

If you don't think Lich is the roleblocker, please explain where you think it's coming from, if not a different dirty scumbag.

[Glork]

ARE YOU REALLY SUGGESTING THAT LICH CAN KILL, DOOM, AND ROLEBLOCK ALL PACKAGED INTO ONE, AND THAT HE IS THE ONLY SCUM LEFT IN THE GAME?

I don't know where the roleblock fits in, but Lich is the Doomer. So yes, Lich can Kill and Doom the same night. and yes, I do think he's the only scum left.
Logically we wouldn't have two elemental scum groups, and we don't have any consistent non-elemental kills to suggest a non-elemental scum group, therefore I doubt we have two scumgroups.

Soooo.... Lich isn't the brown-cloaked person.
No protown player is the brown-cloaked person (lack of claim plus attempt to block the claimed Doctor last night).


But you're not sure if there's another scum in the game and are assuming Lich is the only one left?


Logical fail.

[Glork]

Another thing, Chrono: How do you know that Dram isn't the "non-mafia elemental player" in the game?

I find it awfully funny that you're saying "there can't be another scumgroup because that would put all of the elements into scumgroups" while

automatically concluding that Dram is scum if there are two scumgroups

.



Slip-up ftw.

[Glork]

My point is that Dram might

NOT BE FAKE-CLAIMING

and there might be

TWO NON-ELEMENTAL TOWNIES WHO ARE LYING SCUMBAGS

.


Yet you automatically conclude that Dram must be in a "second hypothetical scumgroup," which is definitely a slip-up. Way to drag your scumbuddy down with you, Chrono.



Lich, please kill Dramonic tonight.

[Glork]

Now that I'm finished repeating stuff that I said like 50 times before...

@Glork

, why did you ignore my previous statements on the other scumgroup/who we should lynch toDay?

Especially who we should lynch toDay, considering I was the person who suggested it first, and my questioning of bill revolved primarily around why he wasn't pushing to lynch chrono since Chrono was the obvious safest lynch choice. How could you ignore that seriously?

No, you're right, I am completely consumed by the fact that Chrono is trying to autowin today by pushing bullshit lynches.

The triple combined pressure on Bill the last page looked like you were hoping someone would ride the wave onto voting him, so the groupoffour could off him.



Midnight: Do you think that there are more than one remaining scum in the Orange Scumgroup, then? I still refuse to believe that Lich does both Doom

and

roleblocking, so there is definitely at least one other scum.

And one scumgroup still doesn't explain the "Reduced to Nothingess" kill on ABR N1.

[Glork]

Who was the third though, JP was riding him earlier, and chrono to a degree, but it was just me pressuring him that page, dram just jumped on at the last moment (scum buddying?).


I don't think anyone's stupid enough to toss a vote in, Chrono's been scummy enough now that anyone following the game knows it's lylo.

Dramonic was all over Bill, too, going on about how he is 'obvscum.'

[Glork]

Unlynchable SK is an inherently broken role, as the town has no Vigilante so they could not possibly beat you. This entire debate seems kinda pointless to me.

Anyway, I really don't think we have anything more to say today.

Vote: Chronopie

[Glork]

Not surprisingly, I got the music-flavored roleblock.

I am not doomed.

6 alive, 2 scums left. We are still in LyLo.




Will re-read the entire game for Dram/Chrono/X/Y connections in the next few days. Not looking forward to it, but it has to be done.

FOSES ONLY FOR THE TIME BEING.

If nobody owns up to being doomed, then it is on lying scum and we will spin down the doom coutner.
If somebody obviuosly protown (aka, thatguy) is doomed, we leave the doom counter as is.
If somebody ubersuspicious admits to being doomed, I'll make a decision from then.

[Glork]

Right and right, and scum 2 killed lich like I hoped they would and, evidently lich picked correctly with Barbariccia.


That leaves JP as pretty obviously scum and an unknown Rubricant.


Glork, you got RB'd? And nobody went after you or thatguy for a kill? That seems... odd.




And I got doomed, makes sense since I was working so hard to out him.

I think they RB"d me because they thought I'd be more likely to go after JP, given I said Rosa had to protect Thatguy, then protected myself.
For the record, I didn't go after JP. (And in postgame, Kise can confirm that I actually sent him a dice tag and had to ask him what the result was. By the way, apparently I tried to protect myself.)

I think they killed Bill because they feared exactly what he ended up doing -- crosskills. I explained why Lich (which everyone knew was Bill at that point) had to crosskill to stand a chance, and chances are he'd have to crosskill again tonight. Mafia2 needed him out of the way.

[Glork]

1) That's unlikely at best. Scarma was also the fiend of death, and was probably responsible for the "reduced to nothingness" kill N1. Plus, it's standard in a flavorful game with flavorful kills to have each kill associated with one player. I'm not sure why you're even bringing this up.

2) This discussion is meaningless and will not help us find scum. I'd much rather you tell me who you think the last two scumbags are, and why. No more useless tangential discussions, Anti.

[Glork]

Yeah, mod privileges are apparently all screwed up post-move. They're being worked on.


Anywho, I guess I need to get back into the swing of things. I believe I was planning on doing a re-read of the game, with an eye towards Chrono/dramonic. Will get that underway sooner or later.

[Glork]

Keep in mind that JP claimed to be Earth Element, but didn't claim to have any elemental strengths or weaknesses. That's kind of a big point against him, IMO.

Also, I'd forgotten that Anti was roleblocked N2. The odds of him being scum are astronomically small. Nobody even KNEW about the existence of a Roleblocker until after Anti claimed to have been blocked, so it seems highly likely that the scums did not try to "clear" one of their own.

So IMO, Thatguy, myself, and Anti are all essentially clear. I will not vote for or lynch any of the three for the remainder of this game.

JP is almost certainly Scar, and the other scum is among {Adumbro, Midnight}. That means we should

DEFINITELY

take advantage of Dumbro being doomed today.

My current thoughts are:
Run the doom counter down to 0, and see if Dumbro flips scum.

If he's Scar, then JP is not Scar, and his "Commuter" explanation is more plausible for the reason. We lynch Midnight today.
If he's town, we lynch JP as Scar and Midnight as the other scum (whose name escapes my immediate memory) tomorrow.
If he's the other scum, we lynch JP as Scar and win today.



The only way I see this possibly failing is if Thatguy is either a Mafia Doctor (highly unlikely), or is scum with a full-blown protown doctor fakeclaim provided (fairly unlikely, given thatguy's gameplay). But if we can accept 3 likely-confirmed town, my plan takes care of ALL THREE unknowns without possibility for loss.

[Glork]

Also, updated Night Action List:

Night Action Analysis

Night One

KDub(Tiamat) electrocutes RECKONER
MehPlusRawr(Kraken) blinds Glork

Glork(Rosa) protects Glork
thatguy00(Cedore) protects ???

??? Reduces Albert B. Rampage to Nothingness
??? roleblocks ???

Bill Fails Doom?

Night Two

KDub(Tiamat) electrocutes Nautilus
MehPlusRawr(Kraken) blinds Midnight(was wolframnhart)

Glork("Rosa") protects Glork
thatguy("Cedore") protects ???

??? roleblocks Antifinity

Bill dooms Starbuck

Night Three

KDub(Tiamat) electrocutes inHim
MehPlusRawr(Kraken) blinds KDub

Chrono("Leviathan") drowns bv

Glork("Rosa") protects Devo
thatguy("Cedore") protects ???

??? roleblocks Devo

Bill dooms Devo

Night Four

No Electrocution Kill - KDub(Tiamat) roleblocked?
MehPlusRawr(Kraken) blinds Glork

Chrono("Leviathan") drowns DTMaster

Glork("Rosa") protects Devo
thatguy("Cedore") protects Glork

??? roleblocks KDub

Bill dooms Devo

Night Five

No electrocution kill - tried to kill Glork?

Chrono("Leviathan") drowns KDub

JP Commutes

Glork("Rosa") protects Glork
thatguy("Cedore") protects Glork but is blocked

??? blocks thatguy

Bill dooms JP("Commuted")

[Glork]

EBWOP: Keep in mind that this is a list of

CLAIMED

actions. Obviously, I doubt the truth of JP's commuting. I think he pulled a covenient fakeclaim out of his rear because he knew what his scumbuddy's role was.

[Glork]

Bah. Sorry about the quadruple-post.

MOD:

I will be on V/LA (possibly ZERO access) from Sunday to Wednesday. I might be able to make a short post from my phone, but I'm effectively out of commission for all of those days.

[Glork]

Midnight, think about it.

We have three unknowns and three known town.


And

we have a way to kill all three unknowns without potential for losing

(barring some completely unforseeable bullshit like a one-shot extra kill). This is a plan that will guarantee to check all three unknowns. Whichever among {Midnight, JP, Adumbro} is town should be 100% in favor of this plan.


If we lynch one scum and they nightkill one of {Glork, Thatguy, Anti} tonight, and we mislynch tomorrow, we lose. My plan gets past that.

[Glork]

If he's Scar, then JP is not Scar, and his "Commuter" explanation is more plausible for the reason. We lynch Midnight today.

If this is indeed the case, then looking at thatguy might be the more plausible road. Because your not gonna find any scum role here. I've already said this once, but I got Rikken from FF12. I only got one role-name in my pm. Good god, you'd think if I was gonna fake claim on a game like this, that I would do so with some one as lame as him ...>.> get out of Town...I would have picked a more cooler character then that.

Keep in mind that if Dumbro is Scar and we mislynch you today, there will still be

two confirmed town

plus JP tomorrow. We simply lynch JP tomorrow and win.

[Glork]

Really, I'm like 90% confident that if we spin down the doom counter, Dumbro will die as scum today. On the off-chance that that is not the case, we still have 3 town and 2 scum and the lynch pattern is obvious.

[Glork]

I understand. Thatguy being scum is the one thing that could throw a monkey wrench into this plan, and I've already acknowledged it.

But I if that were the case, I almost certainly would have been killed last night. Thatguy had a

PERFECT

excuse with my "random" suggestion ("Oh, I randomized to myself"). Anti brought it up here. That's why thatguy is protown.


All that being said, you, Midnight are the least likely of the three unknowns to be scum. I want everyone to weigh in on my plan in principle (can't wait to see Dumbro and JP object to it), and then I will request that NOBODY but me and thatguy vote. I have a plan for a series of votes/unvotes that should spin down the Doom Counter and give us a chance to win today, with basically a guarantee to win tomorrow.

[Glork]

EBWOP: Keep in mind that thatguy also claimed to be blocked the night he tried to protect me. If the scums really wanted me dead, they could have blocked/killed me, and had thatguy claim to be roleblocked again. That's

another

reason which proves thatguy's innocence.

[Glork]

I explained this earlier. Anti was blocked N2, before the town even knew there was a roleblocker. (Whomever got blocked N1 did not claim that they were blocked.)

It seems EXTREMELY silly for the scums to block one of their own that early, when nobody knows of the RB's existence, just to try and make him "look more innocent." That would be HORRENDOUS use of the role.



Anyway, I think we need to spin the doom counter down. If by some crazy fluke Dumbro flips town, then we have to stop and reconsider other possibilities. But I want to cover all of our bases. Bill gave us a free lynch on a top suspect. We would deserve to lose if we didn't take advantage of that.

[Glork]

Here's what I'm thinking.

If we get anyone to two votes, the scums (even though they don't *appear* to be around) could theoretically quicklynch.

I will vote for JP, and you will vote for Dumbro. Then we will both unvote.
Then you will vote for Dumbro, and I will vote for JP. Then we will both unvote.

Rinse, repeat, until we have dead scum.

[Glork]

Vote: JP

9

[Glork]

Unvote

NEED TO RECONSIDER. *winkwink, nudgenudge*

7

[Glork]

Er, I meant the second round I will vote for Dumbro and you JP, then we unvote and swap again. Sorry about the confusion.

[Glork]

Anywho,

Vote: AdumbroDeus

THIS GUY IS SCUM.

5

[Glork]

That assumes that they wanted you dead, maybe he feels he could've made a stronger case on you.


Or maybe you're the scum doctor, it was you who initially suggested that there was a vig at all.



The point is, you're putting far too much faith in the roleblocking being an accurate indicator when scum had every reason to use it to mess with us.

The lack of kill on the night thatguy was blocked doesn't make sense, then.


By the way,

Unvote

3

[Glork]

Four. We need six more votes.

Vote: JP

Five more.

1

[Glork]

Unvote

Any last thoughts, Dumbro, aside from the fact that you think I'm lying scum?

[Glork]

Vote: AdumbroDeus

Three more votes after this vote.

[Glork]

Isn't it, though?

Unvote

Two more, btw.

[Glork]

Vote: JP

Midnight, I do believe you will be the hammah.

[Glork]

Unvote

.... to prevent possible quicklynch in case Dumbro and JP are both town.

[Glork]

Well you were on Dumbro, so I'm assuming your vote comes off once he dies. But I see no reason to rush things, let's wait for Kise to get in here and count down Dumbro's doom.

[Glork]

Ooh. Kise is online. Let's hope he pops in here real quick.

[Glork]

Vote: JP

Let's hope this wins it.

[Glork]

...


So I'm dead.

Sticking with my read on JP, and one of the claimed docs is still scum.

ahhhh....Shhhiiiit!! D: I hope Im not reading into this one too much....

You do realize that anything that a caught scum says after he is guaranteed to die holds zero weight whatsoever, right?

[Glork]

Night 1:
Meh inks Glork
Glork protects himself

Night 2:
AF/JPS kills Glork
Glork protects himself

Night 3:
bill1148 sentences Devotress
JPS roleblocks Devotress
Glork protects... Devotress, wut?
thatguy00 (formerly WorseExcuse) protects Devotress


Night 4:
bill1148 sentences Devotress
Meh inks Glork
Glork protects Devotress
thatguy00 protects Glork

Night 5:
FF/KDub attempts to kill Glork
JPS roleblocks Glork
thatguy protects Glork
Glork protects himself

I'd just like to say, this is some amazing fucking doctoring by BOTH doctors. You will

NOT

see Docs lock on to more scum-targeted townies than right here, kiddos.


And yeah, I couldn't be any happier with my play. I didn't like the Zodiark lynch by the end of the day (though I wish I'd been around to bash it more). Iece mislynch was perfectly understandable, IMO. Prana mislynch was hurrdurr. And I pretty much settled on every other scum. I even managed to convince the scums why they had to start crosskilling once I realized that we needed a little help.

Props to Bill for at least giving us the capacity to win. Once he was by himself and three of the Archfiends were triple-teaming him, I think he knew he was a deadman, so he decided to at least give the town a fighting chance... and I do appreciate that.

[Glork]

Oh, one other thing I learned from this game.
One of my old definitive town-tells, used to have like a 90% success rate.... not anymore. It's failed me in like three out of my last four games, and led me to the early town read on Chrono.

[Glork]

Also, just started skimming the dead people's QT.

...lol @ the "oh fuck, doctor claims" assumption that I'd get thatguy mislynched then myself mislynched. Where I lacked in early-game scumhunting, I made up for in playing my role correctly.

[Glork]

EBWOP: Oh wait, you thought MPR was actually a doctor and it'd be a thatguy/MPR double mislynch. Nevermiiiiind.

[Glork]

OMG WE WON!?!??

O ye of little faith...

[Glork]

Bill, I am actually inclined to believe that you played far better than I did in several levels. You got unlucky that bv made himself obvious scum and that Kdub was individually scummy AND tried to shield bv from me. Then somebody finally read MPR's complete lack of anything of value and you were basically hung out to dry. Aside from the kill attempt on me (I think I would have killed Chrono), I think I would have made the same decisions you did. If there were still a Cassandra Award for scum, you would absolutely be a nominee.

[Glork]

Eh, I should've started using my avatar from the other forum I'm on.


Still, from my play, people should've known I was experienced, it was extremely frustrating getting ignored.

I actually thought you were the drowning vig for a short while, around when you first replaced in. Your suspicions coincided with the drowned players rather nicely. Ultimately, your behavior towards Bill did you in with the rest of your group. Reading between the lines, you all made it decently obvious that you knew he was scum because of interactions and/or parallels between scumgroups.

A lot of scums (dramonic especially) fell into the trap of being "too" knowledgable about things no townie could properly guess at.

[Glork]

...


Oh wait, I get it.


I seemed overknowledgable because I relied on flavor that figure out what would be considered "common knowledge". I know SquareEnix's stuff incredibly well, and flavor was very very obviously more then flavor in this game.


I think it should've been evident that I was an FF buff when I defended prana's claim WAY back when as reasonable, I grew up on those games. Seiken Densetsu 3, Final Fantasy 6, Dragon Quest, etc. I figured that people would research the flavor and with prodding come to the same conclusions I was coming to. I guess not.


Screwed cause I expected people to be more effective then they actually were, lol @ the irony.

No, it had nothing to do with flavor. But I pointed directly at your

ENTIRE

scumgroup in this post, because by then your interactions had made it extremely obvious that you were all scum together.


I don't really feel like going into the details, mostly because I don't like giving away many of my scumhunting tactics, but I would suggest that you read D4 and D5 up to the linked post and see if you can't understand how the four of you made yourselves known scum.

[Glork]

EBWOP: Another hint -- the fact that I mistakenly said you didn't go after anyone but Bill is also a clue as to how I knew you guys were scum.

[Glork]

Back to this:

Ultimately, your behavior towards Bill did you in with the rest of your group. Reading between the lines, you all made it decently obvious that you knew he was scum because of interactions and/or parallels between scumgroups.

A lot of scums (dramonic especially) fell into the trap of being "too" knowledgable about things no townie could properly guess at.

It's not the fact that you went after Bill. It's the manner and timing in which you (and dram, and Chrono) all latched onto Bill that made you obviously scum.

Start here and compare yours/Chrono's/dram's posts to mine/Anti's/Midnight's.





There is also one thing tactically incorrect that all of the scums did, too, but it's actually a much smaller tell compared to this whole Bill thing.

[Glork]

Ah, I see. My debator nature taking over. So from both a pro-town prospective and a "not being revealed as scum" prospective I should've just said, "yeah, he's obvious lich for these reasons" and proceeded to grill them about concentrating on a mostly dead scumteam when there was a strong possibility of a full one?



Nice to know so I don't make that mistake as town (or scum), because I know I would've done it regardless of my faction in that situation.

Eh, you sort of touched on the tactical error. What consumed me was making sure that I knew every option the town could take, and then focusing exclusively on which options would give the town the best chance of winning. You, Chrono, and Dram put strong emphasis on "BILL IS LICH" to the point where it became a distraction from what any good townsperson should have been looking at -- namely, who do we lynch first, what do we do about our doctors, and who are JP/Chrono's scumbuddies.

As far as how you treated Bill, your mistake was that you arrived at "Bill is Lich" far too quickly. So did Dram, and Chrono. I had a sneaking suspicion that Bill could be Lich, but no concrete evidence, so my suspicions were just that -- suspicions. Chrono and Dram jumped all over an alleged scumslip because they

knew

that Bill had tried to Doom JP, but that it failed due to JP being undead. That kind of instant conclusion is not one that I think any townsperson with no knowledge of the scumgroups could assume. Heck, until Dram said "shut up, you're Lich and you obviously tried to Doom JP as Scar," I wasn't even convinced that the other scumgroup was the Four Archfiends. The distinction in posting is that, while you/Chrono/Dram were all "YEP BILL IS OBVSCUM," not ONE of the protown players made that conclusion so quickly, because none of us had the information to do so. The three of you just tag-teamed Bill like "yep, this is totally obv," when it was in fact very not obvious to the uninformed majority.

[Glork]

I think it should've been obvious to everyone when I brought it up to be quite frank, his target choice was far too inconsistent but after that well thought out argument which was for picking out the safe choice. There was no way that it had simply slipped his mind.

If you want to sit here and pretend that your play was flawlessly consistent with how you would have been if you were town, you're more than welcome to.

I saw a pair of trends in posting that all three scum (who were posting at the time) shared, and that none of the three towns (who were posting at the time) shared, and it led me to finding those three scums and correctly slotting them with JP. So from where I'm sitting, the scums committed reliable tells, hence they made a mistake.

[Glork]

you were lucky this time.

Yes, because using a classic scumtell which went 6 for 6 in this game is clearly luck. In my younger days, I used to come to the right conculsion as scum too quickly, too, and I know I've been caught doing it. (I want to say Committee Mafia is an example, but I'm too lazy to go research it.)

Anywho, Prana's more correct. It's not "don't play smart," because smart play is always a boon to your side. This is not a game for idiots. It's "don't play in a manner that leads you to draw conclusions that rely on scum-only information."

[Glork]

Well yeah, Dum, you played by far the best out of the four of your team, and though you were my 4th top suspect, I did have to wager the possibility of Midnight being scum riding coattails. Playing smart will do you well 99.9% of the time, I think you just got unlucky here that your words and actions coincided with two of your scumbuddies who were commiting obvious scumtells with their emphasis on "Bill is Lich" rather than "what is the town dealing with, and what is the best course of action to take."