A Clash of Kings - A Divided Kingdom

[julienvonwolfe]

julienvonwolfe replaces CCARaven4 effective immediately. He'll be v/la for this week due to exams but welcome him to the game anyway.

Hi guys. Confirming this. I'll try to read up in between study periods but nothing I post will be substantial.

[julienvonwolfe]

Okay, I am caught up to page 10. I'll take a break now and do more tomorrow. Here are my thoughts:

First, in a skim-read through I caught that Richard claimed Renly. I believe this claim, due to the reasons already stated by others at the time: it relies on another and can therefore be tested. Also, Richard's play strikes me as frustrated and emotional newbie town rather than scum, but that's gut, admittedly. This rather colours my view of the developing Richard wagon that we see in pages 1 - 10, and makes me view those critics of him with some disfavour as it's very likely that a fair number of scum were on the wagon. I'll post better thoughts of that wagon when I get to it.

Secondly, a little setup speculation: I think it highly likely that there are multiple scum teams given both the size of this game and the flavor, in which there are many competing factions.

Finally, please note that in the following I have used page numbers rather than post numbers for obvious reasons. I will not vote until I finish my read, since to do otherwise would be foolish:


My town reads up to pg 10 are Percy, Cow, Mina and Axel. I'd be content to raise one of them to Hand.

My scum reads so far are Vezo and SSBF, with sitting on the fence about Benmage. My notes:

Benmage's play has been reactionary and contains no scumhunting. However, I don't get that 'gut' scum feel from him. Notes: seems scatterbrained, but that's meta. Pg 4, quote wall war with CMAR... reactionary play. Pg 4, still not much in the way of scumhunting. Pg 5, concerned with raising a hand still. Finally a smattering of scumhunting when asks Drippereth to restate case on 'two scum', though it should have been obvious from reading the thread and so looks more like laziness. Pg. 6, tenacious followup, better and shows more engagement. But Pg 8, entirely reactionary and not scumhunting.


SSBF I think is scum. I get the feeling of 'textbook' play from him - too textbook. He engages in a way that approaches active lurking, and I get the feeling that he is trying to use accepted forms in order to avoid making a 'scummy' mistake. Detail notes - pg 4. reactionary, not analytical post that doesn't seem to serve much purpose. Same on pg. 5 when you could really have more analysis, more than just a 'slightly scummy read on DrModem'. Pg 6, the obvious riposte to Migwelloni; not good, not bad. Pg 7, good post towards Vezo, but looks like omgus against CMAR. Pg 8, stock-standard asking lurkers to contribute reads. Pg 9, reacts to Drippereth's prodding with a 'this post is very scummy, if you play badly you get lynched', but DESPITE READ also says 'will need to re-read your [Richard's] posts.' Scummy. Then a short case.... followed by an FOS? What? Then lurker hunting Kleedrac - good, but 'by the book' feeling. Same with his FOmS of ani on pg 10.


Vezopiraka I also think to be scum. I think the notes speak for my thought process: pg 5. no scumhunting, barely engaging. Wish to be raised not good; 'next in line for the throne', given flavour, hardly towntell. TPg 7, he "Will post a case sometime soon" is a personal tell for me. Scummy, given later exact same thing about Richard. Then votes Richard without case, as a reaction to a 'scummy' post. Hmmm.

[julienvonwolfe]

Hay Guys, I've found scum!

I will first deal with

SSBF

first. I have commented before on his 'textbook' play; he goes for the easy comments and even at his most analytical doesn't actually analyse. If you read this post, his main suspect is Migwelloni:

Migwelloni: The outright worst offender of the people voting RichardGHP. He quite litterally said that he voted RichardGHP because it was a good bandwagon, which was a completely ridiculous reason for voting RichardGHP. On top of that, he failed to acknowledge that he put RichardGHP at L-1. His vote was extremely scummy.

Sure, it's ridiculous and ill-considered, but these don't guarantee that Migwelloni is scum! Migwelloni's bandwagoning was not good, but in my experience is not uncommon amongst newer players, both town and scum; also, his failing to acknowledge that he put Richard at L-1 could be a sign of he as a newer player not being aware of conventions regarding lynching, or of the care that players on this site usually put into placing a vote. SSBF does not appear to have considered these points before calling Migwelloni 'extremely scummy', but simply relies on textbook tells. Finally, if Migwelloni was so suspicious, SSBF certainly seems to have forgotten about it since! Perhaps it is because of the lurking/replacement issue, but perhaps - and this is what I think - he has simply departed for pastures anew and easier pickings?

Related to the above analysis of the Richard wagon is his position concerning Richard's alignment. SSBF made the above analysis while apparently having a neutral read of Richard! Surely if he were to divide people into town, neutral and scum as he did he would find it easier if he had a concrete opinion of Richard, since mafia is a game of analysing people's interactions. There is no sign that he had a neutral opinion of Richard - that is, that he thought Richard was equally scum or town - in his analysis, which stinks.

The final reason I shall give for SSBF's scumminess is his interactions with Benmage. Rifka has already commented on this, pointing out that not only is Benmage made scummier by SSBF answering for him, but that SSBF was doing just what he said he wasn't - defending Benmage! In this contradiction we see SSBF squirming and displaying self-consciousness, something we also see in Parrotgate. Scum has more need to be careful than town, since they cannot afford to be lynched quite as much as town can, and I think we see signs of SSBF-scum trying desperately to make sure he doesn't cast the wrong impression.

MacavityLock

has played a good game, except with regards to his interactions with SSBF. Observe:

Although I prefer to raise Macavity Lock instead, you're not a bad choice either.

And then:

I'll be in favor of raising you. Like others said, you have been playing very well. Although I prefer to raise Macavity Lock instead, you're not a bad choice either.

When had you ever mentioned me as a candidate for Raising? This is weird and out of the blue.

Why not leave it to die? ML specifically feels the need to point this out despite the six-page difference and criticise SSBF for it, and to me it just doesn't feel genuine. It and ML's subsequent interactions with SSBF feel like distancing and/or bussing to me, especially this one, where he backs off a bit, but says that his biggest reason for suspecing SSBF was his use of FOSes. That's much more emphasis on FOSes than he gives here - a small but troubling inconsistency, given the other stuff that he called out SSBF on and this. Why did he not mention SSBF's unnecessary apologies in the post where he backs off, given that he called SSBF unequevocally scummy for the apology but only a 'bit' scummy for the FOSes, initially? This point is on the tenuous side, I know, but consider this also: in the post where SSBF analyses those on the Richard wagon, he places Macavity under the 'null' category -

yet he also considered him townie enough to be Raised to Hand!?

Contradiction! Scum! Die!

I'll deal quickly with

Raivann

- enough has been said by others on his recent posts. I would add this:

Mcav, whatya think of Deer?

Tastes good in stews and as a steak.

I see the tell of trying to avoid all responsibility for a potential vote. I'd say he's leaning towards the scummy side. Still, I do think that there are other people scummier.

Deer was Raivann's predecessor, and here we see the scummy scummy McScum MacavityLock trying to brush off early pressure on Deer in a classic distancing-but-sitting-on-the-fence move. Note also that later in the game, ML has said outright that he doesn't want to lynch Rai! This is quite a statement given the pressure Rai is under. Finally, note that Deer was also in SSBF's neutral list in his 'analysis' of the Richard wagon.


I propose that SSBF, MacavityLock and Raivann are all on the same scumteam. To this hypothetical scumteam I would add

Drippereth

. There are two main points I have against Drippereth:

1) The troubling behaviour regarding SSBF:

SCUM

Super Smash Bros. Fan (I have reasons I will expand on soon)

Kleedrac (conditional on Richard flip)
I doubt it
Deer
RichardGHP

TOWN

Drippereth
LynchMePls
Unsight
Benmage
Percy
Vezopiraka
DrModem hasdgfas
danakillsu
MagnaOfIllusion

Super Smash Bros. Fan

RichardGHP

Bolding mine; no reasons were given for the flip-flop, and no reasons for thinking SSBF scum were given either. Iso page two of Drip's posts and see for yourself. Note also this defending of SSBF.

2) See this post for another piece of evidence that links Drippereth into the SSBF - Macavity - Raivann - Drip scumteam; this time, a defense of Raivann.


I'm pretty sure that Kleedrac is frustrated town; this is gut, and I would only call myself 80% sure. That said, I don't think that he'll contribute much to the game, and I give him a 20% chance of being anti-town because his newb playstyle, combined with the 'giving up' behaviour that he demonstrates, could effectively hide this. I'd be willing to vote Rai, though I really want to lynch SSBF. Percy's a good Hand, too.

Thusly:

Vote: Raivann
Raise: Percy

[julienvonwolfe]

Nice post Julian.

@JVW: Would you care to comment on the Richard situaion? If you have already, I'd be happy for you to just point me to the post. What do you think about CMAR?

Sure, in my first catchup post I said this:

First, in a skim-read through I caught that Richard claimed Renly. I believe this claim, due to the reasons already stated by others at the time: it relies on another and can therefore be tested. Also, Richard's play strikes me as frustrated and emotional newbie town rather than scum, but that's gut, admittedly. This rather colours my view of the developing Richard wagon that we see in pages 1 - 10, and makes me view those critics of him with some disfavour as it's very likely that a fair number of scum were on the wagon. I'll post better thoughts of that wagon when I get to it.

Since posting that my thoughts haven't really changed; despite what we might call Richard's best efforts. In addition to the good role claim and the gut feeling I have I would add that all four who I think to be scum - SSBF, Rai, Drip and ML - have targeted Richard. At the very least, this means he's not on the same team as them.

CMAR I am confused by. He his play has been confounding and at times, arrogant. He's lurked a lot and as a result I only have sketchy notes on him, but they mention things like tunneling on Richard - which according to the view that Richard is town, is bad - and a general lack of scumhunting. However, I don't think he's scum, the only concerning interactions being with Axelrod (the whole "I'm willing to accept Hand" thing). Honestly, I think he's got some sort of mental problem. I'd give him a 60% chance of being town.

[julienvonwolfe]

Looks like I need to clarify my MacavityLock case.

Firstly, however: he argues that my entire case on him is built on SSBF scum, as seen in the quote below. I respectfully disagree that scumhunting effective scumhunting on Day One should not include searching for links between players as I have in my case towards him. I propose to him in reply that it is entirely essential that this case be made on him now, since once we do have SSBF's flip, ML's bussing - if indeed that is what it is - would be complete and would allow him, if scum, to enjoy the benefits of that.

Secondly, to clarify the specifics of the case. Simply put, I think his approach to SSBF looks like scum carefully distancing:

Post One, on pg 16. ML is critical of the way SSBF nominated ML as a candiate for Raising (note that I think ML's reply to me on this point is BS and that his real motivation was "HOLYSHIT BUS THIS GUY", but I digress). ML is also critical of SSBF's views on leaving Richard at L-1, and calls the excessive FOSes that SSBF uses 'a bit scummy'.

Compare this language to this on pg 24 where that 'a bit scummy' has turned into "one of the biggest reasons that [he thinks] that SSBF is scummy," and despite having meta of SSBF's FOSes provided at that. Tenuous? Yes. That's why I said it was tenuous, but I think it is probably a manifestation of the 'carefully distancing' behaviour that I believe we see here between the two of them.

While I'm dealing with my case on ML I'll add this to it, where I would argue that we see more of the careful distancing happening: ML again thinks SSBF scummy but inexplicably finds somebody more scummy to target. Not so bad but in his latest post, ML does this again: it's hidden in his list of suspects, but he finds SSBF scummy and

still

chooses to vote somebody else!


To conclude, I reluctantly agree with ML that all we can do is lynch or vig SSBF at some point and then look at ML's interactions, and that then this case might be more useful, assuming SSBF flips scum - which I really think he should. I'm voting Raivann at this point because he's the most likely lynch, but I'm okay with that because he fits into my hypothetical SSBF - ML - Rai - Drip scumteam. I think it's a pretty good case, but I admit my own bias and probable tunnelvision as author. I find Percy's interrogation of dana troubling because I agree that dana looks bad, and I'm not sure how to fit it in to my view of the game yet.


Finally, LynchMePls, I'm glad you liked my case. What do you think about the specific aspects of it, though?

I truly think Rai (well, SSBF actually, but I can be realistic) a better lynch than CMAR; I don't see the trouble in CMAR's quick unvote, as unvoting after a claim is common on this site and it is not impossible that an impulsive player would do this as town. Also, promising to provide more content as CMAR did, and then not delivering it, as CMAR has not, is hardly restricted to scum alone.

[julienvonwolfe]

I'm not sure Lord Beric does make perfect sense as a vig, but it doesn't matter, because I'm inclined to believe that in this game scum have been provided with fakeclaims.

[julienvonwolfe]

I would loooooove for SSBF to be the lynch for the day but apparently my ideas don't get steam unless they're restated with 5 times as many words like Julienvonwolfe did here.

I also think scum would be very reluctant to shoot Richard. That's win/win to me. We get a vengeance kill or a confirmed townie for the game.

Right, now that it looks like we're not lynching Raivann let's go for SSBF. We've got 24 hours, that's time, and there's a much better case on SSBF than on CMAR. (Reacting stupidly to claims seems to be in CMAR's meta since he did it to both Richard and Raivann, who based on their behaviour cannot both be on the same team, and so I don't think CMAR's reactions to claims can be counted as scummy.)

UNVOTE: Raivann
VOTE: Super Smash Bros. Fan

[julienvonwolfe]

I would loooooove for SSBF to be the lynch for the day but apparently my ideas don't get steam unless they're restated with 5 times as many words like Julienvonwolfe did here.

I also think scum would be very reluctant to shoot Richard. That's win/win to me. We get a vengeance kill or a confirmed townie for the game.

Right, now that it looks like we're not lynching Raivann let's go for SSBF. We've got 24 hours, that's time, and there's a much better case on SSBF than on CMAR. (Reacting stupidly to claims seems to be in CMAR's meta since he did it to both Richard and Raivann, who based on their behaviour cannot both be on the same team, and so I don't think CMAR's reactions to claims can be counted as scummy.)

UNVOTE: Raivann
VOTE: Super Smash Bros. Fan

Do you really think a lynch count can be reached on him in that time?

Sure... though I will switch my vote to ensure a lynch if necessary and people, for whatever reason, don't want to lynch SSBF.

[julienvonwolfe]

I so picked Mac and Rai day one. I also picked SSBF as antitown. So yes, my theory was bullshit and I was wrong about Dripp but bugger it, damn it all to hell, fuck fuck fuck fuckity fuck!

Good game guys and thanks mods