Last Will Mafia II (Over)


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Post Post #260 (isolation #0) » Tue Jun 29, 2010 6:35 am

Post by Rhinox »

Replacing in for CMaR, everyone bow to my awesomeness! First game in a while, so you should all totally not lynch me or anything until I get the rusts out.

obligatory
unvote
for the re-reads.
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Post Post #263 (isolation #1) » Tue Jun 29, 2010 6:58 am

Post by Rhinox »

RHINO!
Your new avatar is so...
:P
Haha yeah I think I need to mess with the colors a bit, I don't really see myself as so... purple. And look at you, hiding behind an alt and everything. Those are some creepy eyes your avatar is sporting.
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Post Post #265 (isolation #2) » Tue Jun 29, 2010 7:10 am

Post by Rhinox »

Shattered Viewpoint wrote:You don't get to dictate these things, you know.
:shock: :shock: :shock:

My viewpoint has been shattered...
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Post Post #268 (isolation #3) » Tue Jun 29, 2010 7:33 am

Post by Rhinox »

danakillsu wrote:Yeah, since we can't find out whether kmd lied or not until the end of the day,
unvote vote: ShatteredViewpoint
until he quits his antics or confirms that he has a Post Restriction.
This is about the only noteworthy post in the whole thread. danakillsu wants to find out whether kmd lied about his pretend daykill ability, but he's voting to lynch the target of the alleged daykill, thus making it impossible to figure out if KMD lied.

vote: danakillsu
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Post Post #329 (isolation #4) » Wed Jun 30, 2010 7:47 am

Post by Rhinox »

LlamaFluff wrote:
Vote Count

Shattered Viewpoint (4) - nachomamma8, danakillsu, EGL, Chevre
RichardGHP (3) - Amished, kmd4390, holycon
Super Smash Bros. Fan (2) - Diacria, Shattered Viewpoint
millar13 (2) - RichardGHP, chronopie
Diacria (2) - Super Smash Bros. Fan, twomz
raider8169 (1) - Charlier
twomz (1) - pittbunny
charlie (1) - raider8169

Not Voting (5) - CSL, The King Of Eggs, carneybaby88, xite91, Reverse Simplicity
I don't see my name, nor danakillsu on this list, and I was voting danakillsu...


~Corrected
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Post Post #330 (isolation #5) » Wed Jun 30, 2010 7:55 am

Post by Rhinox »

SSBF: Why did you ask millar to claim?
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Post Post #358 (isolation #6) » Thu Jul 01, 2010 4:54 am

Post by Rhinox »

raiderscum in [url=http://67.222.17.61/forum/viewtopic.php?p=1351091#1351091]Newbie 696[/url], lynched D1 wrote:At this point of the game I like to get a feel for everyone. I do not look deep into posts and just talk. After I get a scum sign I think look at the person in isolation to and start looking more in depth.
Raider in [url=https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?p=2347125#p2347125]this post[/url], roughly the same point in D1 wrote:I have not bothered to attempt to get real reads on people. With a game this large I like to wait for a while first to get a feel of how the players are posting.

hmmmmmm?

unvote, vote raider

SSBF wrote:I did not ask millar to claim, I just said that he can claim if he wanted, just that I suggested he should wait until mylo/lylo or if he got put at L-1 and was asked to claim.
Sorry, my question should have been read as, why were you ok with allowing millar to claim?
SSBF wrote:...but if you want to claim, feel free to.
Twomz wrote:I'm still wondering why Millar claimed so early... and why I haven't noticed more people talking about it.
Based on what I know and have heard about millar, I'm disinclined to believe that the claim was actually a real, honest to goodness claim, but who knows. I'd rather go on pretending he didn't say anything :P

In general, I feel talking too much about claims this early only leads to more role information leaking out, which is good for scum on D1. Thats why I'm suspiscious of SSBF for being so willing to let millar claim, and I'm now suspiscious of you for the leading question type statement meant to get people talking about it without actually stating your feelings on it at all.
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Post Post #374 (isolation #7) » Thu Jul 01, 2010 2:39 pm

Post by Rhinox »

raider8169 wrote:
Rhinox wrote:
raiderscum in [url=http://67.222.17.61/forum/viewtopic.php?p=1351091#1351091]Newbie 696[/url], lynched D1 wrote:At this point of the game I like to get a feel for everyone. I do not look deep into posts and just talk. After I get a scum sign I think look at the person in isolation to and start looking more in depth.
Raider in [url=https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?p=2347125#p2347125]this post[/url], roughly the same point in D1 wrote:I have not bothered to attempt to get real reads on people. With a game this large I like to wait for a while first to get a feel of how the players are posting.

hmmmmmm?

unvote, vote raider
Did you seriously quote a game of mine that I was in like 2 years ago when I first started playing? That was the first game I was scum like ever. Good job you made me laugh.
haha yeah, for some reason I remembered that. Only, it wasn't really when you first started playing, you were an IC so you must have at least been around a little while. I just remembered someone called you out for not scumhunting, and that was the first excuse you gave, before going into all that "its not the IC's job to scumhunt" stuff. I seemed to remember it kinda being the reason for your eventual lynch. And, it seemed to parallel very closely whats happening early on in this thread. Just thought I'd throw it out there with not much else to go on.

Weird I remembered it though, I didn't even replace into the game until after you were lynched.
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Post Post #375 (isolation #8) » Thu Jul 01, 2010 2:43 pm

Post by Rhinox »

SSBF wrote:I personally don't want people to claim before L-1/mass claims, but it's there choice and if they want to claim, they can. I wouldn't stop people from attempting to claim even if I wanted to. In rare exceptions, it's actually good, like with Town Miller's.
idk, just doesn't seem like a position I would take as town. I might at most find out WHY they wanted to claim, but I don't see it as pro-town to have the "go ahead and claim if you want attitude". 'specially if you'd prefer to not see an early claim.
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Post Post #376 (isolation #9) » Thu Jul 01, 2010 2:48 pm

Post by Rhinox »

ack, triple post...

Better than a wall of text?

Anyways, somethings bugging me. I'm hesitant to draw attention to this, but...
raider8169 wrote:
Twomz wrote:Well, even if it's just pointing fingers, I'm liking the conversations going on better now.

We just need to get everyone talking :(. I'm still wondering why Millar claimed so early... and why I haven't noticed more people talking about it.
Looking at my role and how the PM was formed I dont buy the claim.
Plus who cares if (s)he gets a funeral or not. If that means his will doesnt count then its just one less vote that one person will control. Remember the key is to not let one person gain control of most of the votes.
Anything you want to clear up regarding this before I go into this slip any further?
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Post Post #378 (isolation #10) » Thu Jul 01, 2010 3:02 pm

Post by Rhinox »

Shattered Viewpoint wrote:
Rhinox wrote:ack, triple post...

Better than a wall of text?
Never.
You haven't seen my walls o' text :twisted:
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Post Post #400 (isolation #11) » Fri Jul 02, 2010 3:29 am

Post by Rhinox »

raider8169 wrote:
Rhinox wrote:Anything you want to clear up regarding this before I go into this slip any further?
Slip? Please do. My first line had 5 simple words.
Well, you said...
raider8169 wrote:
Looking at my role and how the PM was formed I dont buy the claim.
Plus who cares if (s)he gets a funeral or not. If that means his will doesnt count then its just one less vote that one person will control. Remember the key is to not let one person gain control of most of the votes.
There are 2 contradicting issues I see...

first is regarding the bolded, said in regards to this claim by millar:
millar wrote:CLAIM: I'm the princess, well technically the prince lol. Except according to my message if i have read it correctly, i am only given a funeral if i am killed during the day.
...but if I go back and look at the general townie PM in the opening posts:
Vanilla wrote:You are a Vanilla Townie

You do not have any special powers in this town.

You do have the ability to pass on your vote to others when you die. You must send me a list of all the players in the game, ordered from who you most want to recieve your vote, or votes, when you die, to least

You win when all threats to the town are eliminated
...I don't see anything in there where I can conclusively say based on the role or how the PM was formed, that millar is lying. That tells me you're either softclaiming a non-vanilla role, or you're lying.

The second part is regarding the italicized part of your post. After you tell us you don't believe millar, the second half of your post carries the inherant assumption that millar is telling the truth, and it would be better to lynch him so he can't pass on his voting ability, which you feel is a good thing.
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Post Post #429 (isolation #12) » Sat Jul 03, 2010 4:13 am

Post by Rhinox »

Raider, all the information we has says that votes will always pass on. Unless/until we discover a mechanic that prevents passing votes on, we should assume its going to happen whether its good or not. Trying to play the game in a way that prevents it is thus futile and borderline distracting/non-sense.

I've been thinking about what to do about millar. If he's telling the truth, we lynch him, scum gets to kill tonight, and we get a new day tomorrow. If we don't lynch him, and he gets nked, then scum get 2 nks before we get another day. Also, assuming that means any/all town roles get 2 actions - more chances for information to go on the next day, also more chance they get killed. On the other hand, if he's lying scum, it could be a good ploy to draw a doc protect or something, nullifying a doc if we have one, and not even considering if there is a mafia watcher or something...

I think this early in such a large game, probably doesn't matter too much if we lose a day. So, no need to worry about lynching him today, and no sense wasting any protects (if they exist) on him. Later in the game, it could be dangerous if he is still alive though. We'll always have to assume scum could get 2 nks when determining if we're in LyLo, for example.

Limited access over the next week or so for vacation - traveling away from home. Should be able to post some today, tomorrow, and monday. Won't be able to post at all on tuesday or wednesday. Traveling back home thursday, so should be able to post then. Friday I'll be out doing community service for work all day, so if I can post it won't be until the evening. Back to normal activity next weekend.
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Post Post #487 (isolation #13) » Tue Jul 06, 2010 12:24 am

Post by Rhinox »

millar wrote:Rhinox it says that i only get a funeral if killed in the day....

so if i get NK i get no funeral.....

so your logic, is scummy because you have said the opposite of me.
ooops my bad. I thought I remembered you saying it the other way. That being the case, most of my last post doesn't apply. The conclusion and ideas of my post is still the same though - this early, doesn't matter as much if we lose a day, but there's no sense in lynching you unless you're found scummy (right now, I don't think so). Later in the game, you become more of a liability, but also the longer the day goes, the less we should lynch you. When its truly lylo, it wouldn't matter if we lynched you. You're probably not likely to get scum-nked with that claim, but you might look goos as a N1 vig target if one exists and they don't have a good idea who scum is.

tl;dr: my bad, but doesn't change anything. Still no rush to lynch you for policy or any other reason less than thinking you're scum. Sorry for the confusion.
Richard wrote:The hell is with all the replacements? ITT Llama should install a revolving door.
Whats the point of this post? Its not scumhunting, thats for sure...

=========================================

Nachomamma8: You come in and declare a few people town, and then jump on the biggest wagon without any reasons because you're tired of mafia for the day? hmmmm...


The more the game goes on, the less and less I like Richard.

Last post for a couple days.
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Post Post #577 (isolation #14) » Thu Jul 08, 2010 1:02 pm

Post by Rhinox »

RichardGHP wrote:You neglect to mention me all game and then point out one null post for use against me?

Wow.
RichardGHP wrote:
vote rhinox
hahahaha... at least you could have pretended to come up with something, instead of OMGUS because... I said I didn't like you?
CSL wrote:Rhinox is not scumhunting. At all.

Vote: Rhinox
Please provide examples of which posts of mine are not scumhunting and why.


@ both of you: You both seemed to forget about voting me awfully quick... what gives? Whats with all the vote hopping?
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Post Post #639 (isolation #15) » Sun Jul 11, 2010 4:10 am

Post by Rhinox »

unvote, vote Xite91
for everything she's said starting with this post.

I would also not mind watching Richard or CSL swing, or possibly a lurker like Danakillsu/replacement.
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Post Post #642 (isolation #16) » Sun Jul 11, 2010 5:57 am

Post by Rhinox »

KMD, why are you voting someone you didn't list in your top 3 (4) suspects?

Why did you mention Shattered would be a better wagon, when he is also not in your top 4 suspects?

Xite, I'll respond to you later.
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Post Post #682 (isolation #17) » Mon Jul 12, 2010 6:00 am

Post by Rhinox »

CSL wrote:I think Rhinox just went up in my list for stalling...
whatever dude.

You're a hypocrit then. Quit stalling and respond to this post.

Richard, you too. Quit stalling! Thats the new buzzword, right?

Xite: going through your iso...

38: You say that lynching richard will help you make connections.

When asked about it,

39: you backpedal and say richard will be a great lynch because he's scummy and you would get information.

When asked again what information,

40: you refer back to post 38.

41: you admit you're avoiding the question, and again only refer to vague connections that you refuse to say, only until after richard's flip - when scum can make up whatever they want, and say thats the "connections" they were referencing all along.

42: pointless post

43: admitting to making an anti-prod post, and writing a long excuse filled paragraph to explain potential future bad play and lack of scum hunting - I'm not sympathetic towards RL excuses - replace out or go on V/LA if you can't play up to your potential, if you're going to play, you don't get a pass on being scummy because you're on drugs or anything else.

45:
Hey Rhinox, why don't you say it's so bad?
I don't understand what you're asking me here.
I mean, that on its own is not the best case ever, but I already had reasons why I wanted him lynched. It's not like it's solely an information lynch. I don't like those.
Unless I missed a post where you explained why Richard is scummy, All I've seen is you calling him scummy, and vaguely claiming you would get some information from his lynch specifically, while refusing to say what information you're looking to get.
Why don't you read some stuff before that post? Just sayin
Looking through you're previous posts, you mentioned richard being a burden if town, without justification, and you mentioned that your biggest scumtell was richard jumping on raider's wagon without trying to form his own, but if those were good enough reasons in your opinion to lynch richard, why did you have to go into all the extra justification nonsense about doing it for information, without actually telling us what information specific to richard's lynch you hope to learn?
Also, considering your next sentence, it seems like you want Richard out too, so what's your reason for it?
He's annoying. He OMGUS-reacts to everyone who glances crossly in his direction. He doesn't believe he can get anyone lynched/won't try to form cases, which is either a crappy townie tell, or a scum tell. But my desire to be rid of him, CSL, and dana is more of a, "which players would the town be better off without" desire, rather than really thinking they're scum. And players I think are scum always get voting priority, which is why I'm voting you.


In addition to this, since my last post I also think you're really reaching hard in regards to holy. I agree with Amished's interpretation, I don't see anything scum or scummy with what was said.
Xite wrote:I understand what you're saying, but you're also giving them a reason to simply wagon by going oh, holy i see what you're saying, vote.
makes it easier for scum to not have to make a case.
So, Richard's scum because you said so and you're voting him, and Holy is scum for pointing out a previous case on someone you already think is scum, which allows scum to hop on the wagon without justification based on Holy's case? :? something does not compute here...
Xite91 wrote:
Amished wrote:
Xite91 wrote:I never said a request from me, don't put words in my mouth
usually when someone goes, ohai I made a case on this guy that's gettin a lot of suspicion(without prompting from someone)! It gives me a
scum vibe
from them
.
I understand what you're saying, but you're also giving them a reason to simply wagon by going oh, holy i see what you're saying, vote.
makes it easier for scum to not have to make a case.
But then how does this make Holy scum?
answer bolded
i never said scum, scummy however, is a different story
More backpedaling. Oh, and you did say scum. Scum vibe, precisely. Its right up there in red text.

=========================================================================

Twomz, I feel like I haven't heard much from you all game, got anything else to add before deadline other than what's basically a 'sup post?

=========================================================================

Chronopie: Information Instead of Analysis (IIoA) in post 653. That earned a iso read of you.

0: wagon hopping on millar
1: anti-prod post already?
2: IIoA
3: IIoA again
4: IIoA again
5: fluff/nonsense
6: anti-prod post and IIoA yet again.

unvote, vote: Chronopie


Everyone needs to right now go read this scum in iso and vote. He should be today's lynch. Or Xite. Either/or
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Post Post #687 (isolation #18) » Mon Jul 12, 2010 8:16 am

Post by Rhinox »

@ Rhinox: You built up a good case against Xite... then vote Chrono for activelurking?
I didn't really think of it as active lurking...

I'm more sure of Chrono-scum then Xite-scum, but I'd lynch them both if I could.
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Post Post #715 (isolation #19) » Wed Jul 14, 2010 9:02 am

Post by Rhinox »

I could get behind a SV wagon. I sort of was assuming his posting method was some super 1337 ultra pro form of scum hunting, but it doesn't seem to have much direction. Starting to seem more like a scum hunting facade, much like chrono's posts.

Raider is confusing. He was really the first wagon option that I remember, and it never took off. Usually, early wagons on town tend to take off pretty quickly. Could mean something, except no other wagon took off either today. Starting to seem more like an over cautious or apathetic town. Raider did handle the early votes on him like a pro though. Not an allignment tell, more of a skillful player tell, but regardless I don't think he's a good lynch choice today.

CSL is a crap wagon if he's going to be replaced. I'm a bit more suspicious of Amished for wishing he could instead be lynched - seems like scum would be happy to get a VI lynched rather than have the potential for a better townie to replace in. CSL did in all likliness give us 1 bit of information - seems highly unlikely that he and millar could be scum together on the same faction. Something to file away for later in the game.

Richard could go either way. I would lynch him for being a liability and annoying, but without much confidence the result would be scum. He's sort of got that self-righteous AtE townie feel to him, that could also be over defensive and reactive newbie scum.

Chrono is very obvscum. I'm surprised he's not getting more votes.

Xite's last big response to me and subsequent replacement request makes me feel... meh. Feels like 'townie' to me.

================================================================================
Chronopie wrote:So Rhinox attacks the case on Richard, then votes for a (near) lurker...

Defending a buddy and trying to divert attention?

VOTE: RichardGHP

FoS: Rhinox
This post by chrono is uber-scummy. "Rhinox is scum and defending a buddy and voting someone else to divert attention, so I'm NOT going to vote scum-rhinox?" Doesn't make much logical sense there, since following the chrono logic, Richard is only scum if I am scum. Not only that, chrono admits to (near) lurking? Not only that, were chrono reading instead of pretending to scum hunt, he would see that no where did I attack a case on Richard, and infact I created my own case against richard?

LYNCH THIS SCUM!
(please? Yes, I'm trying to dictate, SV :P)

===============================================================================

SSBF: Your realize you just asked SV to prove a negative, right? Regardless, mafia is not a game a proofs. If a majority thinks someone is scummy, they're lynched, regardless if they're proven scum (or not proven 'not scum' :?) I think its a very scummy move to lay BoP on SV as condition for you to not lynch him. Not least of which because if you were really convinced he was scum, he wouldn't be able to "prove" he wasn't.

===============================================================================

Summary: we've got wagons on the wrong peoples, except for maybe SV, IMO. We've got some potential lurker scumz that have votes parked on the top 4 wagons but are otherwise not contibuting. We've got time, I think we need votes on the likes of SSBF and Chrono. I'd like to hear some more input from the likes of Chevre, nachomamma, animorph, feels like I haven't heard much from millar in a while, would like to hear something original from KMD, or holy, haven't heard much from Ythan, or EGL. This thread needs more Diacrippereth. don't know how many of those I just named off are on queue to be replaced.
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Post Post #721 (isolation #20) » Wed Jul 14, 2010 12:08 pm

Post by Rhinox »

All of a sudden, I'm not liking the SV wagon as much...
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Post Post #782 (isolation #21) » Mon Jul 19, 2010 1:33 am

Post by Rhinox »

xite wrote:Next,
Rhinox wrote:
Xite's last big response to me and subsequent replacement request makes me feel... meh. Feels like 'townie' to me.
Why? Just wondering
Just a feeling. Instinct, based on experience.
SSBF wrote:I disagree. Just because millar13 has a beloved princess claim doesn't mean he is excused from his scummy actions. I personally think he'll make a good policy lynch, even with the risk of skipping a Day, unless he shapes up.
What scummy actions of millar's are you refering to here? If its scummy actions that warrant his lynch, why is it a policy lynch? (unless the "policy" is "lynching scum", but then its kind of redundant...)
SSBF wrote:millar13: The perfect policy lynch. It's best to do it now so we don't have to worry about him in the future. Plus due to his rude behavior in recent games (Like the recently-finished Mini 988: Small Town Mafia and to an extend, this game), we don't have to worry about him disrespecting players anymore. I absolutely hated his hammer vote on Shattered Viewpoint. He gave us absolutely no warning that he was going to hammer him, but did it anyway. No explanation on why he thought Shattered Viewpoint was a good lynch at all. He has also given us very little good contents to analysis. I also dislike his numerous vote switiching at times and his hypocritical statement that he hated RVS, yet he's made RVS comments as well. If we're going to lynch him, we might as well do it ToDay.
Plus I think he's scummy.
Only reasons why I'm not voting him yet is because lynching him loses a day for the town and that their are scummier people then him.
Re: the bolded: Odd way to put that sentence in. Why do you think he's scummy, if not for the rest of the reasons you stated in the entire quoted paragraph?
Xite91 wrote:
RichardGHP wrote:
Vote: Xite


Oh My God, You Suck.
Why is there no votes on him for this?
Because Richard has been omgussing everyone all game. Doesn't mean he's scum for it.

My theory is to ignore the trolls, and eventually they go away. Best not to feed them.

Twomz:
unvote, vote: Shattered Viewpoint because I believe his continued involvement is detrimental to the town and from my experience with him in other games, it's not going to get better...
if we don't lynch him he'll just draw the (possible) vig kills away from mafia
(unless he is mafia... which I don't know if he's acts this way as either alignment or if he acts differently as scum, I have only had one game with him).
Did you have any scum reads yesterday? This post basically says you're lynch SV as a policy or utility lynch, rather than you thought he was scum. In fact, the bolded pretty much expects that you expected him to flip town. Why is it the towns job to get distracting townies out of the way so a vig (that we don't even know exists?) can get the scum? that sounds entirely backwards to me.

Who did you think was scum yesterday, and why didn't you want to rather lynch them than a townie?

Another quote of yours bothered me yesterday as well:
Twomz wrote:@kmd: Since you're daykill (if it exists) is most likely one shot, I decided that it would be fun to give you another one-shot ability tonight to help out. I was hoping I wouldn't have to come out and say something like this, but would draw enough attention that maybe the scum would shoot at me instead of say... a cop, but I guess it doesn't matter all that much.

If kmd's kill doesn't go through the free one-shot w/e goes to someone else. Anyone interested in a second spot?
This is blatent role fishing. Anyone who responded 'yes' would pretty much be assumed to have a non-vanilla role with an action.

vote: Twomz


chrono is still second choice for the reasons I stated yesterday.

Ythan: why do you think Twomz is town?
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Post Post #785 (isolation #22) » Mon Jul 19, 2010 3:26 am

Post by Rhinox »

Twomz"

1) You're giving double reasoning. a) we weren't at risk of no lynching. It was 4 days to deadline. Not to mention...
The Rules wrote:[05] DEADLINE LYNCH RULES: As the At deadline, a person will be lynched if they have a majority of voters voting for them. That means you can be lynched with just one vote if only one person is voting. If no one has a majority of the votes cast, it is a no-lynch.
...the only way there can be a no lynch is if there are 2 or more players tied for most votes. Had that been the case, it could easily be remedied by 1 player minutes before deadline. Before the SV wagon took off, I believe it only would have taken 6 votes to get someone else to the top spot. Lets see, before SV, you were voting CSL. Pesumedly, unless you have a habit of voting people you don't think are scum, CSL was one of your scum reads? Right before the wave of votes on SV, we had this:
vote count wrote:raider8169 (5)
CSL (5)
RichardGHP (5)
Shattered Viewpoint (4)
With 4 days to deadline, any of those players could have easily been lynched. You also voted KMD, Richard, and Diacria after the RVS. So, 2 out of the 4 other people you voted in the game (CSL or Richard) you had a reasonable chance of securing a lynch. With 4 days to secure just a majority, you'd think it would at least be worth a shot, right? So it doesn't seem like - "1) None of my scum readings were strong enough where I'd forgo passing up the days lynch because I'd rather push it (if no one else joined in)." - is a valid concern when there was plenty of support for 2 out of your 4 assumed scum reads.

b) "SV had the most votes, so I looked over him, and decided he wasn't contributing and since I'd been in another game with him decided he wouldn't be contributing, so I voted for him." - This would be fine, except SV wasn't on your radar all game. You gave up scumhunting to just go with the crowd "just to get a lynch" and not no lynch at deadline. Do I have to also point out that, SV's lynch was going to happen at deadline anyways before you jumped on his wagon, due to him having the most votes, so your sentiment that you needed to vote SV to secure his lynch and avoid a no lynch is further invalid.

"I don't feel bad about his lynch and I think it was the right move." - so you think it is the right move to lynch townies?


ok, ok, that was out of line... "Withdrawn, your honor". I don't feel bad about his lynch either, but I don't think it was the right move. And I don't feel the reasons you've given for giving up on your scum reads to go after SV are valid.

"(his actions most likely would have drawn a cop investigation in the next couple of days anyway, which would have outed a cop and wasted a lynch because he didn't claim at the start of D1)" - Wow, SV must have been some terribly important or distracting player. Wait wait wait, I thought a vig was going take out SV? You didn't respond to this questiong...
Why is it the towns job to get distracting townies out of the way so a vig (that we don't even know exists?) can get the scum? that sounds entirely backwards to me.
Now in addition, if SV was going to be vigged (which by the way, you view as a bad thing), tell me how he was going to draw a cop investigation if he was already dead? And, even if he was investigated, how is it wasting a lynch to lynch him then, if we lynched him D1 anyways?

2) The way I understand your sort of role claim seems that you can multiply or add to people's actions? You offered KMD another 1-shot kill -er- "ability" I guess. I first read that as you being able to give KMD a second 1-shot kill, but I guess you could have meant something else? The last sentence implies the same thing... a free one shot whatever - I assumed you wrote whatever because you don't know what role they already had that they would get an extra shot of. And the very last sentence, "Anyone interested in a second spot?" I read as "Anyone interested in a second
spot?
s
H
ot?", which would first require having a first shot. But I guess maybe you meant "Anyone interested in
a
second spot [second choice after KMD]?

So maybe this is just a my bad, after rereading the post...
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Post Post #788 (isolation #23) » Mon Jul 19, 2010 4:12 am

Post by Rhinox »

Twomz wrote:I guess I wasn't being obvious enough. There was no typo, the 'second spot' was because kmd was in the first spot (he got kicked out when I found out his dayvig was a lie).

The way I read the deadline rules is we still need a majority, just of the people voting... so if 4 people are tied for most votes, there'd be no lynch. Example, 20 players in game, 10 people voting, 6 for guy A, 4 for guy B. Guy A is lynched. Or, 20 people in game, 20 people voting, 5 for A, 5 for B, 5 for C, 5 for D in that order. No lynch cause it would take 11 votes at deadline to lynch (A majority of those voting). And rereading the rules makes me more confident that I'm right and did the right thing (even if it was extended 4 days, I never said 'LYNCH HIM NOW' I was just getting us to the point where we could finish him off, consolidating our votes or w/e).
Ah, I get it now. epic fail on my part, for the most part anyways. Still don't think that SV should have been rushed to lynch 4 days before deadline, but thats not entirely your doing. Never saw the inventer role before either.

unvote, vote: chrono
back to the obvscum.
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Post Post #789 (isolation #24) » Mon Jul 19, 2010 4:13 am

Post by Rhinox »

'sup jahudo, wanna help me lynch chrono?
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Post Post #801 (isolation #25) » Mon Jul 19, 2010 9:32 am

Post by Rhinox »

I don't think xite was calling millar an asset, but I'll let Xite take it from there and clarify what she was talking about so as not to answer for her.

I'll respond to more later, just wanted to say that before leaving work.
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Post Post #828 (isolation #26) » Tue Jul 20, 2010 2:11 am

Post by Rhinox »

SSBF wrote:Also, you can policy lynch scummy people. Like for example, Lynch All Liars when people lie about there role and that person is scummy, wouldn't you want to policy lynch him?
Actually it wouldn't be a policy lynch (LAL) if I'm lynching him because he's scummy. The whole idea of a policy lynch is, lynching for reasoning independent of allignment. If you think millar is scummy, then argue for lynching him because he's scummy and quit calling it a policy lynch when its not. If you want to policy lynch him, then I can't trust any of your reasons you find millar scummy, because your goal is to get him lynched without regard for his allignment - you'll say anything to convince the town to lynch millar.

==================
Richard wrote:Rhinox, I'm no troll, and I haven't been OMGUSing all game. The fact that you can't see it doesn't give you licence to declare otherwise.
What I mean is, you automatically suspect/attack/insult/vote anyone just because they suspect or vote you or even just mention your name in a negative way.

Relax though, I was only pointing out that your omgus vote on xite recently shouldn't be anything the town should concern themselves with. I actually think you're town.

Now, any other reasons for voting Xite?

=================
CSL wrote:I'm going to re-read, and stuff.

And I'm going to ignore millar if he is talking about stupid stuff. His meta is poor.
How's that re-read going? Also, voting to policy lynch millar is hardly doing a good job of ignoring him, btw...

=================
Xite wrote:I am currently ISOing each and every player, with a scum list to come afterward. I'll leave it up to you guys how you want the cases, so here's my questions for your convenience;

1) Do you want a case on everyone I can make a case on?
a) If not, what would be the number of people (tops on my scum list) you would like to see a case on?
**Disclaimer: Cases will be from top of Llama's player list to bottom with a note (or post depending) afterward of scummiest players I made a case on from most to least**
2) What kind of case would you prefer? Point-by point, basic post by post or just a summarization?
3) Would you like it to be all one mass post, or a single post per player?
How bout you just do what you think will best help the town find scum, rather than placating to the town.

==================

Nacho-818: Nacho, you weren't voting SV when the lynch occurred, but aren't you just as guilty of lurking through the time period up to his lynch? You weren't doing anything to stop it.

What about Jahudo's posts seem obvious/opportunistic? Neither charlie nor chrono have really been getting much focus in votes or attempted cases all game.
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Post Post #853 (isolation #27) » Tue Jul 20, 2010 1:31 pm

Post by Rhinox »

Super Smash Bros. Fan wrote:Ythan, take a look:
Ythan wrote:Idiots. Don't worry about millar today okay? Someone else.
You want us to not be concerned about millar13 for ToDay. But this post directly conflicts with this:
Ythan wrote:Could you just stop posting until someone vigs you thanks.
You want millar13 to stop posting until he got vigged. That is showing a concern about him posting.

I know you don't like millar13's play and I don't either, but I wanted to point out the contradiction.
thats really weak, SSBF...
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Post Post #860 (isolation #28) » Wed Jul 21, 2010 3:37 am

Post by Rhinox »

Locke Lamora wrote:Rhinox declaring he doesn't like the SV wagon right at the end bothers me.
What about it bothers you?

Off topic: Everytime I see your avatar, I want to yell out: "DO YOU SMEEEEELL WHAT THE LOCKE IS COOKIN'!?"
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Post Post #869 (isolation #29) » Wed Jul 21, 2010 8:32 am

Post by Rhinox »

Xite: How is SSBF fishing?

iso of me: any of that you specifically want me to respond to? I really don't feel like me going through point by point will be of much benefit. I can maybe hit a couple points...

"After a few more posts you start flailing a little." - I can link you to some of my games where I've flailed. I have not flailed at all in this game. What flailing were you refering to?

"Post #19, Whoa, major backpedaling on me here. Because I uh, made a post back against your case and then replaced out so I’m town? Not that I’m disputing me being town, but that’s some terrible reasoning to me." - OK, you're right, you're still scum. No, really. Die scum. :P

Seriously, you responded to all my points in a logical manner. And rather than just focusing on defending my points, you moved on to scumhunting. Thats why the response felt townie to me. I wanted to move on to lynching chrono, and responding to your post would've been a distraction and unnecessary. Also, you replaced out, so responding point by point would have been kind of pointless anyways.

Now that your back in, is there anything from that post you really want to me respond to now?

"Wait, this actually explains a lot to me. You voted raider, not because of the meta reason, but because early wagons usually take off well? Scum scummy scum scum" - what? explain please.

"Also, ohai, wagon on sv! Lets do it!" - I wouldn't exactly call that a fair representation of my thoughts on the SV wagon...

"NEXT POST FROM HIM

Rhinox wrote:
All of a sudden, I'm not liking the SV wagon as much..." - Same question I asked Locke: What's the problem with that post?

"I liked his case on twomz, until he stopped pushing it because twomz answered one thing on his case." - It was based on a misinterpretation on my part. After clearing that up, the only part left (question still unanswered by the way) is, Why did twomz say that leaving SV alive would attract vig attention away from trying to kill scum? But, taking the claim into consideration and the fact that its potentially provable, I can forgive that comment for now...

"I really don’t like how he doesn’t seem to have much confidence in his cases at all." - What makes you think I don't have confidence in my cases?

"Also, I wouldn’t be surprised if he and chrono were scum and he’s trying to distance by keeping going back to him." - Thats awfully pretentious. You could say that about anyone who expresses suspicion on anyone. For example, you and richard are scum partners trying to distance because you keep going back to him. Its mutual distancing because he OMGUSed you for no reason. Every else is scum partners with CSL, charlie, and millar - they're distancing by trying to lynch them. etc, etc.


wait wait wait...
Xite 863 wrote:Also, I wouldn’t be surprised if he and chrono were scum and he’s trying to distance by keeping going back to him.
Xite 867 wrote:Chronopie (seems town, but I want more content dammit)
Explain this inconsistency.
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Post Post #879 (isolation #30) » Wed Jul 21, 2010 11:35 am

Post by Rhinox »

Xite wrote:1) Oops, that was directed at Ythan, but I was looking at a quote from ssbf, so I said ssbf. And now that I look at it again, it wasn't him fishing so much as directing a vig-kill, so Ythan stop doing that. :)
2) posts 14-16 mostly
3) But for the sake of everyone else, you could at least respond to what you feel is important.
4) The two posts that I put side by side should explain that
5) Then what was?
6) Because the post RIGHT BEFORE THAT was you voting for him, it's hard to explain but you jumped right on a wagon out of nowhere, then you said you regretted it but didn't change it.
7) Because you've jumped into them, make a case, and then you jumped out of them just as quick.
8) Just a link if one of you turn out to be scum
9) Again, just a link. Also, I didn't say he was either. I said that he feels townie to me, but I wouldn't be surprised if he was scum. (sometimes the towniest player in the game is actually scum. In fact, it happens a lot) Also, I said I need more from him because he's doin an aweful fine job of lurking.
2) OK, well that wasn't flailing. at all. If you really think I was flailing and it makes me scum, feel free to explain why.

3)
rhinox wrote:Now that your back in, is there anything from that post you really want to me respond to now?
In other words, I've said all about it that I feel is important. If you think there is a specific part of it I should think is important or specifically answer to, point it out to me.

4) Still not seeing it.

5 & 6) Please go iso me and link me to the post where I ever voted SV. Then reasess these 2 points and see if they still make any sense to you.

7) I can see 3 instances where I maybe did what you're claiming - dana, you, and twomz. Re: dana, I've played with him before and I knew I wouldn't get a response and he replaces out of nearly all his games. My vote wasn't going to accomplish anything. Re: twomz, I was flat out wrong and backed out. Thats not a lack of confidence in the case, thats recognizing the case is crap. Re: you, I found a better lynch choice in chrono. Call it a lack of confidence if you want, but this game isn't about coming to a conclusion and carving it in stone, especially on D1. I can and will change my mind. Problem? My other votes: raider and chrono. I voted raider through 9 posts and 10 IRL days. And I'm still voting chrono and I'm confident he's scum. I'm surprised more people aren't willing to consider his lynch.

======================

@Richard #872: deliberately acting scummy to catch scum rarely works because town are just as likely to wagon you as scum for it, and its hard to tell the difference. Plus what twomz said.

Regardless, coming clean on your gambit doesn't make me want to lynch you. I generally agree with your town list, and the only 1 on your scum list I would argue is wrong is millar.

======================
Not Voting (9) - EGL, Ythan, kmd4390, holycon, raider8169, chronopie, millar13, RichardGHP
These players should participate more and vote. I'm getting bored arguing with Xite for the sake of arguing :P
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Post Post #880 (isolation #31) » Wed Jul 21, 2010 11:38 am

Post by Rhinox »

Chronopie wrote:TBH, I keep forgetting about this game. Nothing particularly interesting going on here.

Millar claimed Beloved Princess with Lynch-only effects. Twomz claimed some sort of inventor type role. Did I miss any other claims?

And what are the cases on Charlie, myself, and CSL? (Seeing as we're the leading and 2nd= wagons.)
Here you go:
rhinox wrote:Chronopie: Information Instead of Analysis (IIoA) in post 653. That earned a iso read of you.

0: wagon hopping on millar
1: anti-prod post already?
2: IIoA
3: IIoA again
4: IIoA again
5: fluff/nonsense
6: anti-prod post and IIoA yet again.
Rhinox wrote:
chrono wrote:So Rhinox attacks the case on Richard, then votes for a (near) lurker...

Defending a buddy and trying to divert attention?

VOTE: RichardGHP

FoS: Rhinox
This post by chrono is uber-scummy. "Rhinox is scum and defending a buddy and voting someone else to divert attention, so I'm NOT going to vote scum-rhinox?" Doesn't make much logical sense there, since following the chrono logic, Richard is only scum if I am scum. Not only that, chrono admits to (near) lurking? Not only that, were chrono reading instead of pretending to scum hunt, he would see that no where did I attack a case on Richard, and infact I created my own case against richard?
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Post Post #898 (isolation #32) » Thu Jul 22, 2010 3:45 am

Post by Rhinox »

Locke wrote:Rhinox: you'd posted not long before endorsing the SV wagon, for starters. You didn't even identify what it was you didn't like about it. Too many votes too quickly? Poor reasons for voting? Bad feeling about the players who did jump on? It's basically just a catch-all for absolving yourself of responsibility if SV flips town with no actual scumhunting worth, a mere few hours after having said you could get behind the wagon.
It was mostly that the votes piled on too quickly, as well as having some bad feelings about those who did jump on. Chrono was my top suspect and was threatening to hammer - I don't think chrono even mentioned SV all game, but now is suddenly ready to hammer? Pittbunny jumped on without giving a reason. Ani jumped on just to secure a lynch and avoid a no lynch. Twomz voted and basically said that SV would distract the vig from targetting mafia (implying the twomz believed SV to be town). These votes all happened nearly back to back after I said I could get behind a SV wagon (for the sake of argument, I'll allow you to call that endorsing the wagon, but IMO saying that I could get behind it is a far cry from being 100% ok with it). And, all of these voters seemed to take the lynching soley to avoid a no lynch, while forgetting there was still 4 days til deadline.

Now, I would have said all this yesterday. In fact, I was planning on it. I even had a post prepared similar to this one, that I chose not to submit because I didn't want to jump in and try to derail the towns first big wagon without giving SV a chance to respond to the pressure first. With 4 days to deadline, I thought I would have time to say all this after SV responded. There's something to be said for the process of, run up a wagon, defend, argue both sides, claim, and then use the information to decide on a better lynch choice (or lynch the original wagonee anyways). Like, SV claiming millar would have probably got him lynched anyways. I would have been willing to hammer at that point. But it still would have been worth having the discussion about it before the lynch to reference today.

==========================

Rereading the posts around the SV lynch, I noticed something...

Millar: did you know you were hammering SV when you placed your vote?

==========================

Raider: charlie's vote on you is crap and I understand you're on LA...

but all the same, it seems like an awfully big coincidence that you only posted after you get voted. Your posts today have mostly been about charlie. Do you think he's scum and want him lynched? What do you feel about other players in the game? Why aren't you voting anyone?

==========================

Ythan #895: Playing outguessing the mod? I'd prefer to base conclusions about any player based on how they're playing, rather than what faction a role is likely to be.

==========================
Chrono wrote:I saw a person with few/no votes (You), defending a likely lynch (Richard), so rather than start an entirely new wagon, I piled on top of the existing wagon on said scummy player (Richard). Richard seemed scummy to a larger number, and I wasn't sure on my read of the situation (and my ability to build a cogent case, from scratch, and gather enough support). If Richard does flip scum, I see you being buddy #1.
Except I wasn't defending a likely lynch at all. I was questioning Xite's genuine-ness in voting richard. In the same post you base this accusation on, I gave reasons why I would
support
a Richard lynch. Granted, my opinion of Richard has changed since then, but the basis for your argument at the time was faulty.

You are also telling me, you voted richard because there was a wagon on him so others thought he was scummy. You never said you yourself thought richard was scummy. This seems like a case of scum trying to blend in with the town - appeal to majority?

What I really want to see from you right now is, pick out someone you think is scum, give a reason, and place a vote.

If you're really feeling ambitious, I would also like to know why you were going to hammer SV, despite never once mentioning him previously in the game?
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Post Post #900 (isolation #33) » Thu Jul 22, 2010 4:06 am

Post by Rhinox »

Ythan wrote:Attempting to dismiss my assumption, for which I provided evidence, without acknowledging that evidence in the least, noted.
What evidence?
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Post Post #902 (isolation #34) » Thu Jul 22, 2010 4:43 am

Post by Rhinox »

Ythan wrote:
Ythan wrote:I trust an inventor to be town in a game based around the will mechanic and not strange roles.
Thats not evidence, thats attempting to formulate a reason based on how you expect the mod to design the setup around the theme, otherwords - outguessing the mod.

To refute your "evidence", I could also argue that a miller is a wierd role to be present if the main focus of the game is on the will mechanic and not role interaction. I could also point to the theme game where I guess you could say I was a mafia inventor in a Vi game where Vi was experimenting with a type of modular semi open mechanic, rather than specific role interactions:
Role wrote:(A) Marketing. You may force someone to wear a piece of SpaceballsTM themed moychandise from the list below. Depending on what you give out, your target may gain an additional ability. Your target will be informed that they have been pressed into receiving the item, they cannot get rid of it, and upon death any item they may have had will be included in their flip. List of Moychandise goes here



But do you really think that its best to get into a setup speculation discussion at this point in time?
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Post Post #904 (isolation #35) » Thu Jul 22, 2010 4:51 am

Post by Rhinox »

Ythan wrote:I think that I'll speculate as I please.
I'm finding it pretty suspicious that if Twomz sent you an "invention", whatever it is, and you've already hinted at being able to use it to prove Twomz is town, why do you need to resort to setup speculation to explain why Twomz is town?
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Post Post #927 (isolation #36) » Fri Jul 23, 2010 1:06 am

Post by Rhinox »

Twomz wrote:@ Rhinox: What does my role have to do with your perception of my alignment anyway?
Only that I'm reserving judgement until I have seen whether your role can be proven and whether the abilities are helping the town.



I'm OK with a Richard replacement. Too much focus on him and his intentional/obvious OMGUS. Can we now get back to lynching scum?
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Post Post #935 (isolation #37) » Fri Jul 23, 2010 3:26 am

Post by Rhinox »

Twomz wrote:@ Rhinox: Whatever floats your boat man, I don't particularly care if you're suspicious of me or if you think my role might be mafia or not. I don't care if people think my role is town, I care if people think my play is town. (I'm trying dammit >.<)
Hey man, if you don't care what I have to say, don't ask me questions. You seem to have the wrong idea about how I view your role right now. I have a problem with Ythan calling your role town for "outguessing the mod" reasons, but that does not follow that I think your role is not town.

The question mark I have about you remains for 1 reason. You said:
unvote, vote: Shattered Viewpoint because I believe his continued involvement is detrimental to the town and from my experience with him in other games, it's not going to get better...
if we don't lynch him he'll just draw the (possible) vig kills away from mafia
(unless he is mafia... which I don't know if he's acts this way as either alignment or if he acts differently as scum, I have only had one game with him).
Which is a pretty scummy statement for more than 1 reason: (1) It is completely backwards thinking - it is the towns job to lynch scum, and it is a potential vigs job to take care of useless players that distract the town from finding scum. (2) It tells me you did not believe SV was scum, but you lynched him anyways.

I know, I know, we had the discussion about you voting SV to avoid a no-lynch at deadline.

If it weren't for your claim and the information it can potentially provide, you would be one of my top lynch choices today.
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Post Post #988 (isolation #38) » Sun Jul 25, 2010 11:09 am

Post by Rhinox »

I don't buy richards claim. I don't buy that even he could be stupid enough to not realize that his role can be used like a vig, and there were a number of players he himself could have had the power to kill last night. So I don't buy that he just decided not to use his role.

Consider this an intent to vote/lynch richard, but before I just run in and vote I want to catch up on a few other things since my last post and make sure of the VC first.
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Post Post #1034 (isolation #39) » Tue Jul 27, 2010 7:05 am

Post by Rhinox »

I got confused because it took Rhinox/KMD until after the gambit had ended for them to bring up that point. Which is understandable because dana was lurking pretty hard and never said anything after the fake-gambit was explained.
That was the first thing I brought up when I replaced in. I was a bit surprised no one else thought to mention it.

:goodposting: here. I agree with just about everything Amished said.

Why Richard's claim is BS:

1)Millar claimed BP who can be killed at night without skipping a day.
2)Everyone in this thread wants to see millar vigged.
3)Richard thinks millar is scum.
4)Richard claimed a role that would have allowed him to kill millar, where no one would question his target or intentions, and basically prove his role and alignment.

Conclusion: Richard is lying about his role.

Unless Richard can reasonably explain to me why he did not use his role to kill millar or any of his other scum reads (in your next post please), I will vote to lynch him in my next post.

Amisihed summarized a case against SSBF quite nicely. I have been noticing things now and then (I have brought these up in thread) but I haven't been able to wrap everything up into 1 coherent case. I do agree that SSBF is scum, independent of Richard's alignment. I would support a SSBF lynch today.

Chrono hasn't done anything. 3 posts today. 1 did have an attempt at explaining something, but the logic was way off. Active lurking anti-prod post on saturday, said he'd be back tomorrow (sunday). Well, now its tuesday. Oh, by the way. He's already made 9 game posts in other games today. 2 game posts yesterday. 7 game posts on sunday. etc, etc. Basically, according to his profile, he averages 9.07 game posts per day. There is a reason he is ignoring this game. The reason is, he's scum.

Those are my top 3 picks for scum right now.
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Post Post #1132 (isolation #40) » Mon Aug 02, 2010 4:58 am

Post by Rhinox »

acknowledging prod. Reading this game is burning me out.

Chrono's wagon analysis is so much "analysis" as it is summary. Its kinda pointless. The conclusions he has drawn did not need any wagon analysis whatsoever. At least he gave a suspect, a reason, and a vote, but I still want to lynch him.

Richard comes back to claim, then sits around refusing to participate in any discussion about his claim or answer any questions. I don't care what his claim is, he's lying and he won't answer questions like "why he didn't kill millar or any of his other scum targets last night?" because he's lying scum and doesn't have an answer that makes sense. He claimed for survival because he knows the town wants to vig millar and he was banking on us leaving him alive on the grounds that he can kill millar. So I guess when he's "roleblocked" or something tomorrow, we'll have no choice but to leave him alive to try again? No, I don't think so.

unvote, vote Richard
I guess I'll have to wait for a chrono lynch until tomorrow.

I haven't paid enough attentian to EGL to say whether I would support the wagon, but I won't try to stop a wagon either. Actually, I'm starting to think any wagon that prevents this game from further stagnation is a good one.

I would definitely support a SSBF wagon. small points of his have been bothering me all game, pretty sure I've brought most of them up when I've seen them. I can definitely see an argument for scum-SSBF.

Not sure about Charlie. Don't really see the case, other than lurking. Makes me wonder, why charlie over other similar targets?

I don't agree with votes on Amished. He's my strongest town read at the moment.
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Post Post #1167 (isolation #41) » Wed Aug 04, 2010 8:11 am

Post by Rhinox »

RichardGHP wrote:Prod received, still here.

I didn't kill millar because I figured he would be killed by someone else, and targeting him in that instance would circumvent the kill.
I can accept that as a reason for you not targetting millar...

...but...

why didn't you try to kill anyone else?

Here, lets look back...
Richard wrote:Unvote
Vote: Raider
==============
None of the other wagons are worth pushing and there's no point in not voting.
==============
Any wagon I form wouldn't take off anyway.
==============
Believe me, most cases I make only take off when a) I'm clear, b) a lot of people are FoSing that person or c) when the game is full of easily convinced newbs.
This chain of posts makes me think, you've got suspects, but you don't think you can form a convincing enough case to get any of them lynched. You've got this power where you can basically kill at will, and you don't have to convince an entire town through any case. You could have killed anybody you thought was scum.

So... why didn't you try to kill anyone?

and
Xite wrote:Stop throwing a tantrum. Play the game or replace out plox
QFT. quit being emo.
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Post Post #1185 (isolation #42) » Thu Aug 05, 2010 9:18 am

Post by Rhinox »

The Locke wrote:At this stage I'm not all that confident that Richard is going to bother to perform a night action, given his current attitude to the game. He doesn't appear to be thinking clearly about it and he's certainly not exhibiting any interest in participating properly.
Sounds to me like you think he's telling the truth but you want to lynch him anyways. Is that accurate?
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Post Post #1215 (isolation #43) » Sat Aug 07, 2010 3:09 am

Post by Rhinox »

unvote, vote: EGL


I think I'm wrong about Richard. I want him to be scum because he's not trying to scum hunt and he's not answering questions, but... Looking at the 2 leading wagons makes me change my mind. On the richard wagon, I see ani and SSBF who I'm leaning "more scummy than town" on, CSL and Xite who I'm leaning "clueless" on, and only Amished who I have a town read on. On the EGL wagon, nacho, Jahudo, and Locke seem town, and charlie and kmd I'm neutral on. And then Richard, voting EGL for self preservation...

I think I would rather see a SSBF or a chrono lynch today, but I don't think that will be possible with what, 36 hours now until deadline? Looks Like EGL it is.

@Ythan: Why aren't you voting anyone with the deadline coming up?
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Post Post #1247 (isolation #44) » Sun Aug 08, 2010 3:22 am

Post by Rhinox »

This, this, and this. Vote stands. EGL is scum.

Richard should use his ability tonight. Everyone ok with that level of directing?
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Post Post #1280 (isolation #45) » Thu Aug 12, 2010 2:18 am

Post by Rhinox »

Can we lynch Chrono today?

vote: Chrono


I'm interested to hear if there are any CC's to Richard's assertation that he killed millar.

All my reads are getting more and more blurry in this game, except for on chrono.
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Post Post #1283 (isolation #46) » Thu Aug 12, 2010 4:38 am

Post by Rhinox »

Kmd4390 wrote:Interested why xite is asking ythan what he did last night. I don't like that he has 3 votes now because I think he is scum.
I'm more concerned with SSBF having 3 votes than ythan.
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Post Post #1294 (isolation #47) » Thu Aug 12, 2010 9:06 am

Post by Rhinox »

Unvote, Vote: SSBF


This is probably more likely to happen than chrono. SSBF, you're an idiot if you don't know/understand why anybody with an ability to kill wouldn't target anybody but millar. You even suggested yesterday that a vig should target millar. Now you question why millar is a target? I don't get it.

Also,
SSBF iso 67 wrote:EGL is seeming to gain a lot of suspicion lately. My opinion on him:

I took a good look at his ISO and I'm suspicious of him. Granted, it's not as high as my top five major suspects, but he isn't that bad of a lynch. This is what I dislike about him:

1. I really do agree with people that I didn't like that his reason for voting Shattered Viewpoint was RVS. Throughout Day 1, despite making serious posts, he never makes a serious vote during that day, so I don't see a single decent explanation for keeping his RVS vote on Shattered Viewpoint. Worse yet, he never even suspected Shattered Viewpoint and that's saying something.

2. Basically coasted throughout Day 1. He produced contents, but just barely enough that we don't notice this. To be honest, this kinds of annoys me and I find it a bit scummy.

3. Lack of contents during Day 2. I can understand the election delimma getting in the way during most of Day 2, but what about before it? He didn't really do that much in the game compared to most other people. His last post of Day 1 suggested that he would do some serious catching up and you'd think you would at least gain an explanation on his top suspect. Sadly, this isn't the case. Not only has he not done much today, he hasn't really taken any stance or voted anyone. Not liking this.

So yeah, he hasn't really done enough to my satisfaction. While I do prefer my top five lynch candidates, EGL isn't a bad lynch.
You were clearly just fine with allowing an EGL lynch to happen yesterday. Now, you're quite sure it was scum driven?

@Ani: I'm not really a fan of cryptic softclaims.
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Post Post #1318 (isolation #48) » Fri Aug 13, 2010 2:54 am

Post by Rhinox »

Xite91 wrote:
animorpherv1 wrote:One-shot doc.
Another inventor?
Maybe scum-based one, being why you got it maybe?
What's your opinion on it?
Ya know... just because Twomzy was killed last night, doesn't mean he couldn't have sent out another role before he was killed (unless you know something I don't, such as him being roleblocked as well).
Xite91 wrote:You're so dumb sometimes. Just sayin
Amished wrote:SO: If both of them are telling the truth, the only way is if one of them was to be blocked.
However, you (Richard or KMD) haven't given me any logical reason that the scum would roleblock a killing role that wasn't going after them.
There are 3 answers to this question:

1) Blocking Richard could influence the town to lynch him.

2) Preventing millar's death increases the likliness that he eventually gets lynched and the town loses a day phase (until the flip, scum had no reason to believe millar was lying about his BP claim).

3) Most likely, scum did not know who Ythan was going to kill, but they probably would have assumed Ythan would not kill millar if he expected that Richard would target millar, meaning Ythan could potentially kill scum so was blocked.

And actually 4) if scum would have predicted both would target millar, blocking 1 leads to the possibility of both players being lynched.

One thing is bugging me though... if scum had a roleblocker, it probably would have made sense to block Twomz N1, no? Especially if they weren't going to kill him N1.
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Post Post #1358 (isolation #49) » Mon Aug 16, 2010 2:56 am

Post by Rhinox »

Amished wrote:@Rhinox: Assuming Richard-town/Ythan-town:

1) A single kill night would lend credence to the "richard-roleblocked" happenings. There were 3 kills a night in LWI for the most part (until N3 when I was vigged and killed by the other mafia). This would most likely save him a day.

2) I didn't see much in the way of millar-hate other that knowing that he wasn't contributing. With the claim I believed he was town and doubtful that I would've lined him up to be lynched pretty much at any time. Course, I don't think that far ahead typically but that's just me.

3) This is a decent point, which is why I'm waiting on Ythan to confirm/deny LL's point about if it's a one-shot and he was blocked; he should get it back.

4) lol. This flies right in the face of your #1; letting them both go (if that was even possible to be predicted (which I don't believe it would be; iirc Ythan didn't say anything about millar, but that's based on my shoddy memory)) both casts Richard in huge suspicion, directing discussion away from scums (good for them), and wastes another pro-town kill night (technically 2, since Ythan would lose his 1-shot and Richard could not then kill in a pro-town manner on N2; making him wait til N3 or even get lynched)
1: I don't know anything about the first game. Even if I did, I would assume this game to have a different setup centered around the vote passing mechanic. I feel that if richard couldn't claim a kill from last night after being told to use his ability as a vig, and after claiming to not use his ability N1, he would have been more likely to be lynched than if he claimed an uncountered kill.

2: With a claim that influences town to avoid lynching him, failed attempts to nk him would make us more likely to lynch him. Not saying it would have been today, but eventually.

3: Still feel like this is the biggest possibility.

4: Just provided as another option for Ythan and Richard town, that doesn't involve a RB. Wasn't meant to be in addition to any other option, just shows there could be different thought processes. Since Ythan did hint at killing millar, this option seems a bit more likely now.


I think the biggest hang up I have right now is that, why would richard claim a kill he knows he didn't commit given his claimed role, and that any CC would put him under heavy suspicion.


Something else is really bugging me. Anyone find it odd that ani came out claiming to receive a 1-shot doc? It can't be proven at all really. I can't really see anything where twomz thought ani was town. He had him listed as neutral in iso43. In fact, twomz had a rather long town list in that same post, and I would have expected a 1-shot doc to go to any of those players rather than someone listed as neutral.

Battousai wrote:Votes typically don't come flying in that easily unless it is backed by scum.
Or if the player is obvscum, but in this case I'm tending to agree with you here. Everyone was way to eager to vote off Richard. It makes me uncomfortable for the same reason I was uncomfortable with SV's lynch D1 after the votes came flying in.

plum wrote:Clever Rhinox. AND it's a vote on a lurker, too. Put dana on the scummish list then.
clever?

I think that was my first post in the game or close to it - I hadn't yet realized dana was lurking in this game. Notice how quickly I moved on when I realized pressuring dana wasn't going to go anywhere.

I liked most of Plum#1338 except for the voting EGL part and then the "oops didn't realize EGL was dead" at the end without at least an unvote or voting someone actually in the game. I guess I can let at go as an honest mistake though. I'm also not really a fan of stream-of-consciousness voting and unvoting in the middle of posts. It makes the votes seem entirely not genuine at all. I'd rather see a vote at the end of the post and maybe an FoS on everyone else you think is scum, but maybe its more of a personal methodology for me.


SSBF wrote:If RichardGHP is indeed a vig of some sort, he should have at least given a reason for killing RichardGHP. He deliberately said he did not want to explain why he killed millar13. Most townies would not want to intentionally avoid such question because we could have potentially seen hs own reasons for killing millar13 and we would have gotten more information out of it.
I'm all for opportunities to provide information and slipups, but asking richard why he targetted millar is not going to lead to catching scum, nor is it a scum tell if richard didn't provide an answer. All scum in Richard's position would have to do is say "I killed millar because everyone wanted him nked and he claimed Day BP" and that is a perfectly acceptable answer because its true. Its also a simple and easy answer. Its also the answer I would expect from any honest vig.

I do have a question for you though... why didn't you ask Ythan for reasons as to why he targetted millar before pushing the richard bandwagon? I know I would rather hear why Ythan would target millar when nearly everyone was pushing for or suggesting for richard to kill millar. Ythan?
SSBF wrote:You can say that a person can be a decent lynch but that does not mean people jumping into it can't be scums on it. I was fine with an EGL lynch Day 2 because I thought he was scummy, but I do believe there were scums in it trying to find a good place to put their vote in without really commiting much to it.
If I could vote you again I would for this comment alone. Being ok with a lynch but not voting reeks of avoiding responsibility for the outcoming. Then, turning around after the flip trying to look for reasons to accuse those who WERE on the wagon just seems incredibly hypocritical and very scummy. Its like you've come full circle on avoiding responsibility for EGL's lynch. Its like your saying "voting for EGL is scummy, but being ok with the lynch is just fine since there was no vote".

Charlie wrote:On a more important note. Did anyone notice how seemingly pro-town Jahudo looks? Like very seemingly town, until the point he posted things in #1348? Isn't THAT the only post that does not make him pro-town, but rather anti-town? Can we lynch him for that single post?
Whats wrong with #1348?
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Post Post #1392 (isolation #50) » Tue Aug 17, 2010 12:25 pm

Post by Rhinox »

I'm just not getting why on D3 with no dead scum, this has to turn into an either/or decision. This is a big game, there are probably at least 4 maybe 5 other scum and thats IF one of Ythan or Richard is scum. I think there are reasonable explanations for both being town. We also have lots of time in the day. I'd like to see everyone considering richard or ythan to slow down and take a step back for a little bit and look at their #2 suspects. I'll support a richard lynch if there's no other clear scum choice later in the day, but I'm extremely uncomfortable with the push on the richard wagon up to L-1 so quickly.

To start, whats everyone think of my post #1358 regarding SSBF?

[Ythan, Locke Lamora, Super Smash Bros. Fan, Xite91, jahudo, Chronopie, animorpherv1, {Magua}, {MichaelSaberheart}, {Amished}, {Holycon}]

In the list above, the first set of names took richard to L-1 very quickly. The names in braces were either FoS's, intents to votes, or believing ythan more than richard. As far as I can tell, only me, battousai, and KMD are anti a richard lynch at the moment.

Plum, charlie, nacho - haven't commented on the claim-counter claim happenings at all. Likely, at least 1 of these 3 is scum hanging back waiting to see how it plays out, regardless of Richard's allignment. I'd like to hear from the 3 of you what you think about Ythan vs. richard.
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Post Post #1468 (isolation #51) » Sun Aug 22, 2010 9:25 am

Post by Rhinox »

For those that think SSBF is town, I'd like to hear some reasons why?

Also, I'd like to hear from everyone why chrono is not being considered for a lynch?

Richard, who do you think is scum?
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Post Post #1484 (isolation #52) » Mon Aug 23, 2010 2:54 pm

Post by Rhinox »

KMD, why did your opinion on SSBF change? I thought you've been pretty adamant all game that he's town? Also, interested in hearing about your catch that changes things?
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Post Post #1527 (isolation #53) » Thu Aug 26, 2010 11:13 am

Post by Rhinox »

I'm prepared to hammer Richard, but I want to see the VC first. Michel gave me a good reason that chrono isn't scum. I haven't really heard a good argument for SSBF not being scum. I don't think Ythan is scum, and I'm not sure about Richard, but I'm at the point where if his lynch will get that question mark out of the game so the town can focus on finding scum, then its a good lynch.

Of the rest of the players...

Still have a gut feeling Amished is town, but not as strong as earlier in the game. Battousai has seemed very pro town since taking over for PB. Michel seems town. Xite seems town. Jahudo, probtown based on meta.

Then there is nacho, esurio, Locke, KMD, ani, charlie, holy. Obviously not all scum, but thats starting to look like a group which encompasses most of the scum in this game.
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Post Post #1535 (isolation #54) » Fri Aug 27, 2010 7:54 am

Post by Rhinox »

Huh? Why do you have to see a vote count first?
Huh? Why shouldn't I wait to see a vote count first?
(yes, I'm blatently avoiding answering stupid questions)
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Post Post #1537 (isolation #55) » Fri Aug 27, 2010 9:25 am

Post by Rhinox »

Kmd4390 wrote:There was a vote count at the top of the page and no votes on this page. You should consider voting elsewhere though.
When I made post #1527 last, there was a placeholder where the VC is now. You should know that because you posted 9 minutes after me. Not sure whether the VC was actually there by the time Xite posted though.
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Post Post #1586 (isolation #56) » Mon Aug 30, 2010 4:18 am

Post by Rhinox »

My main reservation is this: what happens tomorrow if we lynch richard and he flips town?
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Post Post #1590 (isolation #57) » Mon Aug 30, 2010 4:39 am

Post by Rhinox »

Ythan wrote:The same thing that happens
any time in any game a lynchee flips town
.
except, here is the reason people are voting richard right now:
It's like a cop and his guilty, you don't lynch outside the pair. (At least you shouldn't)
In other words, I want to hear from {Super Smash Bros. Fan, jahudo, Chronopie, Nachomamma8, Battousai}: is Ythan the autolynch tomorrow if Richard is town? Ythan, are you prepared to be lynched tomorrow if Richard flips town? If the answers are no, then Richard's lynch has to be justified with information outside of the claimed kill and counterclaim.
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Post Post #1611 (isolation #58) » Mon Aug 30, 2010 7:04 am

Post by Rhinox »

LlamaFluff wrote:[01] VOTING METHOD: Votes must be in bold. example:
Vote: LlamaFluff
If you do not bold your vote, it will not be counted. You must
unvote
before casting another vote, if you wish it to count.
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Post Post #1612 (isolation #59) » Mon Aug 30, 2010 7:07 am

Post by Rhinox »

This is just getting silly... those voting richard, answer my questions like Batt did, and I'll reward you by hammering.
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Post Post #1619 (isolation #60) » Mon Aug 30, 2010 9:27 am

Post by Rhinox »

UNVOTE: SSBF

VOTE: Richard

Nothing will ever get acomplished if this lynch doesn't happen, whether its the right one or not.
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Post Post #1631 (isolation #61) » Thu Sep 02, 2010 5:07 pm

Post by Rhinox »

acknowledging morning. Its bed time now.
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Post Post #1656 (isolation #62) » Fri Sep 03, 2010 8:55 am

Post by Rhinox »

vote: animorpherv


So, you seriously think batt is claiming cult? And that is the best thing to talk about today, as well as override all discussion to become lynchworthy at the end of the day yesterday?
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Post Post #1698 (isolation #63) » Sun Sep 05, 2010 3:30 pm

Post by Rhinox »

Hey Plum, how sure are you Richard is scum?
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Post Post #1699 (isolation #64) » Sun Sep 05, 2010 3:31 pm

Post by Rhinox »

Also, I have to get caught up, but I just popped in after a long day before heading to bed and couldn't help but respond to plums post.
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Post Post #1701 (isolation #65) » Sun Sep 05, 2010 3:43 pm

Post by Rhinox »

Plum wrote:I don't know. I'd like to pull a number out of my sleeve, but I'd say %80, realistically speaking; I've known the feeling of sure scumhunting with Townflip results and much as I think Richard is a hugely scummy suspect I've known scumhunting failures in myself too many times to discount the possibility that I'm wrong. Having said that, Richard is scum city.
lol...

Alright, alright, I really want to just mess with you some more, but... level with me, is this some sort of scum gambit, or are you just completely clueless right now?

Might want to take a gander at this post before answering, and then you might wanna take some time and read the whole thread before I can take anything you're saying seriously.

Unless, of course, I'm the one who missed the ride on the time machine.
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Post Post #1703 (isolation #66) » Sun Sep 05, 2010 3:51 pm

Post by Rhinox »

ah ok. that makes more sense. tbh, I just skimmed your previous post. Like I said, I was just checkin' in before bed and couldn't not comment on a vote on a dead guy. I'll read the post better and catch up completely sometime tomorrow.
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Post Post #1733 (isolation #67) » Tue Sep 07, 2010 3:05 am

Post by Rhinox »

Getting caught up from last week. Holiday weekend and all.

I like Esurio's bandwagon analysis in 1663, but I think I can come to a slightly different conclusion. Given the 2 scenario's:

1.) Raider/Plum slot is scum, or

2.) Everyone being bandwagoned here is town, and scum were sitting back and laughing, in which case there is scum in this group of people: {animorpherv1 (2 posts), chronopie (3 posts), Jahudo (0 posts), Locke Lamora (0 posts), Nachomamma8 (0 posts), SSBF (3 posts), Ythan (3 posts)}

Rather than decide which of these is more likely, I think there is a case to be made for scum if either case is true. Esurio already did the work, but interpretted it incorrectly IMO. If the SV wagon was scum driven, it supports theory #1 above. If theory #2 is assumed, then there is no reason to believe the SV wagon was scum driven. So, cross-referencing the SV wagon with the list of names in #2 gives a list of players who fit as scum regardless of which of the above theories is true: {Ythan, SSBF, ani}. Of that list, I prefer SSBF or ani lynches much much more than an Ythan lynch.
Batt wrote:Also, to the people voting ani... is he being opportunistic or is he just acting noobish? Would scum-ani try and get an opportunistic lynch on me instead of someone else (ie SSBF who was the second leading wagon at the end of yesterday)?
I don't think he's being noobish, and I don't think he was trying to get an opportunistic lynch. I think he was looking to avoid hammering richard as he said he would do, and now today is looking to avoid scum hunting altogether.
Plum wrote:@Rhinox, why no real response to Ythan's counterclaim of Richard? Especially given that you said you were interested in hearing if there was one?
I spent a good part of the day arguing that I thought both were telling the truth. Or were you looking for a different response?

@Ani: why are you still voting Batt?
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Post Post #1748 (isolation #68) » Wed Sep 08, 2010 1:38 am

Post by Rhinox »

animorpherv1 wrote:Rhinox:

ATM I'm just waiting for a wagon I want to join, and I see no harm in keeping it where it is, as none else is going to vote there anyways.
So... do you still think Batt is scum or no? Who DO you think is scum? Why don't you do some scum hunting and try to form your own wagon, rather than waiting for a wagon to join? Thats not very pro-town.
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Post Post #1757 (isolation #69) » Wed Sep 08, 2010 8:43 am

Post by Rhinox »

Battousai wrote:I'm almost done with the SSBF ISO, class about to start. Tomorrow it should be done, as it is taking longer because I'm trying a new method of analysis (to me) along with the standard.

Ythan, I would say, is the scummiest player that people think is town in this game. If anyone else would post like him, those same people would probably attack him for active lurking.
Batt, why would Ythan-scum kill millar-BP?
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Post Post #1761 (isolation #70) » Wed Sep 08, 2010 9:26 am

Post by Rhinox »

Xite91 wrote:
Rhinox wrote:
Battousai wrote:I'm almost done with the SSBF ISO, class about to start. Tomorrow it should be done, as it is taking longer because I'm trying a new method of analysis (to me) along with the standard.

Ythan, I would say, is the scummiest player that people think is town in this game. If anyone else would post like him, those same people would probably attack him for active lurking.
Batt, why would Ythan-scum kill millar-BP?
so people like you do that? It's called WIFOM buddy
I thought you think Ythan is town?
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Post Post #1776 (isolation #71) » Thu Sep 09, 2010 1:01 pm

Post by Rhinox »

I have no idea what 3/4's of you guys are even saying anymore... just sayin'... These long posts seem to be taking up space without really saying anything.
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Post Post #1856 (isolation #72) » Mon Sep 13, 2010 6:57 am

Post by Rhinox »

Sorry guys, I seem to have lost my grasp on this game. I'm reading the posts, but none of it is making any sense. I need to go back and reread from the start of today to see if its just my failure to comprehend anything or what. Maybe if I read back earlier than today, I'll find something else to go on.

In the mean time, is there any particular reason why animorph is not a topic of discussion today?
Also, he hasn't posted in 6 days. Prod?


Batt, wth, you spam us a huge chart of votes and then do absolutely no analysis based on it? whats the point?

I don't recall seeing any good reasons why SSBF is not scum, but I've lost track of the reasons why I feel that way. I'll go through his iso in a little bit and see if I can find them.

What happened to Amished? I recall having a town read on him, but now
he hasn't posted for 6 days. Prod?


nacho, holy, on V/LA. I still can't recall anything nacho has done besides try to get EGL lynched. Holy, when you get back...
holycon wrote:If Richard flips town then I will use that information to go back and look at those on his wagon
...why didn't you do this? You only questioned charlie today, before disappearing, and he wasn't even on the Richard wagon yesterday.

Based on feel, here's everyone:
Ythan - town
Batt - town
xite - town
kmd - town
charlie - idk
locke - idk
Jahudo - town
esurio - town
plum - idk
Amished - town/idk
nacho - idk/scum
SSBF - scum
chrono - idk/scum
holy - idk/scum
ani - scum

ani or SSBF are the only ones I'm reading strongly as scum at the moment, but I also wouldn't be averse to a lynch of anyone rated "idk" or below. I won't be voting for anyone rated as town.

But like I said, later on I'll read some stuff and see if I can come up with anything that makes any damn sense.
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Post Post #1982 (isolation #73) » Thu Sep 16, 2010 12:02 pm

Post by Rhinox »

Post explosion. I'm failing at keeping up in this game.

The summary version of my thoughts is that SSBF and Ani are still good lynches, and I think I prefer SSBF-lynch. It makes me happy to see SSBF votes.

UNVOTE: Ani
VOTE: SSBF x2

I remember reading a few things I hope I have time to respond to before deadline, but if not there is nothing pressing I need answered that can't wait until tomorrow.
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Post Post #2018 (isolation #74) » Fri Sep 17, 2010 12:01 pm

Post by Rhinox »

My vote isn't changing unless it needs to in order to secure a lynch at deadline. What brought ani to my attention was the ordeal regarding ani thinking batt claimed scum, and while I've never really felt good about him based on anything, I haven't really paid much attention to him either. I feel like my opinion of ani could change with a better player in the slot, but my opinion of SSBF is not likely to change at all.

Something for everyone to think about going into night:
Kmd4390 wrote:Deadline is an hour after I get out of work. I'll check the votes on my phone some time between the time I clock out and deadline.

Unvote, Vote Animorph x2


Smash Bras, your Will had
BETTER
be updated. This goes for Ythan and Rhinox too going into the night. I just updated mine after the VCA TM.
This sort of feels like a scumslip to me. KMD is/was willing to lynch SSBF, and has talked about me and ythan as if we're scum, so why would town-KMD care if alleged scum had an updated will?

KMD, I'm a bit concerned after using VC analysis logic to conclude SSBF is scum, you abandon the wagon because "something doesn't feel right about it"
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Post Post #2020 (isolation #75) » Fri Sep 17, 2010 1:22 pm

Post by Rhinox »

nacho, ani has already requested replacement from this game, so his recent activity doesn't apply.
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Post Post #2049 (isolation #76) » Thu Sep 23, 2010 2:06 am

Post by Rhinox »

Top Picks for scum team (5 seems like a good number)

Nacho
Plum
Locke
Holy
fishy

Town reads

Ythan
Jahudo
esurio
kmd
Batt

Everyone Else unsure of

chrono
charlie
Amished

I would say realistically, 3/5 or better of my top scum picks are correct, I've probably got 1/5 or less of my town reads incorrect, and 1/3 or less of the everyone else is scum.

Nacho- played like a lyncher trying to get EGL lynched, but I can't recall him making any other notable posts in the game.
Plum- first instinct was raider was scum. I liked plum's entrance into the game, but after iso #7 or so, started falling off.
Locke- idk, call it POE or pure, unadulterated gut.
holy- if holy is scum, ani is town. If ani is scum, holy is town. Reasoning- this post
fishy- ani's play, nicely summarized by jahudo. Willing to give fishy time to establish a presence and reads without being under the weight of being forced to play constant defense.

I like...

VOTE: Nacho

...the best right now.
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Post Post #2087 (isolation #77) » Fri Sep 24, 2010 2:50 am

Post by Rhinox »

KMD - still planning on doing whatever unconventional thing you said you were gonna do?
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Post Post #2136 (isolation #78) » Fri Sep 24, 2010 6:18 am

Post by Rhinox »

holy wrote:there are constantly 4 people at the top of every townie lynch

you
bat
rhinox
yathan

doesn't that stick anyone else as weird
I'll only take credit/blame for lynching EGL and SSBF. I only voted Richard to progress the game after trying and failing to get SSBF lynched instead (context), and I didn't vote to lynch shattered VP. So, how is it that I'm "at the top of every townie lynch?"

pre-edit: ninja'd by locke

Also, you have to consider the context of, at this point in the game, EVERY lynch has been on town. Until there is a scum lynch, its hard to discern scum trying to lynch townies from townies not afraid of lynching incorrectly. I'm working on my own objective VC analysis to see what I can come up with, but don't expect it done this weekend as...

...starting in a few hours, I'll be LA until monday





KMD, I don't have a problem with your NK analysis for diacria, xite, and Michel. However, with twomz, you might want to put lesser weight on the suspicions influencing the nk due to the fact that twomz was probably killed for no other reason other than being a PR.
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Post Post #2179 (isolation #79) » Tue Sep 28, 2010 2:35 am

Post by Rhinox »

Back, but need to get caught up. Anyone claim scum while I was gone?
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Post Post #2286 (isolation #80) » Fri Oct 01, 2010 11:54 pm

Post by Rhinox »

I'm still like a week behind and posting from my phone in the middle of no where, PA. Seeing that chrono is finally getting some attention, I want to
unvote, vote chrono
. I promise I'll get caught up and make a better post when I get back to a computer.
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Post Post #2342 (isolation #81) » Fri Oct 08, 2010 2:45 am

Post by Rhinox »

Hey guys. Sorry I wasn't around much yesterday. Hope to be more active today.

Jahudo:

The only reason I ever backed off a bit from chrono was because of this comment by michelsableheart:
Chronopie hasn't contributed much to the game, but he was the one who pointed out that Beloved Princess was missing from the list of roles that died pregame, unlike in LWM 1. It seems unlikely to me that scum will mention that. Scum would prefer to get a mislynch on a Beloved Princess if possible, and therefore wouldn't want to support the claim with evidence.
Ironically, when I voted for chrono, I had completely forgot about that point, so I guess that explains why I still felt chrono deserved attention.

Ythan: your flashing avatar... it burns!!! my eyes... they bleeeeeeed! yet I can't stop staring! AAAARRRGGHHH!


Anyways, anyone have any thoughts on the significance of chrono's vote going to ythan? My first instinct in this game was to policy lynch whoever the scum send their vote to to ensure scum never send their vote to other scum, but after thinking about it some more I'm not sure its the best strategy.
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Post Post #2365 (isolation #82) » Mon Oct 11, 2010 2:11 am

Post by Rhinox »

Batt #2357 damn thats a lot of posts:
The fact that there wasn't a NK really tells me that the scum is almost out of town players to kill that give off a town vibe. If at least one of the scum falls into the category of "giving off a town vibe," lets call him Kmd, they can't kill him and they can't kill of one of the last townies that give off a town vibe as it would become suspicious later that "Kmd" is still alive and has multiple votes.
Anyways, the only thing I got out of the whole post is... you think scum
chose not to
kill anyone on the grounds that KMD looks town and since KMD wasn't killed he must be scum?

wut?
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Post Post #2371 (isolation #83) » Mon Oct 11, 2010 9:25 am

Post by Rhinox »

Batt, my head is asploding trying to follow your logic at the moment.

First, you assume that scum did not submit a kill. I doubt that very much, but that is not the worst of my problem.

It is that you argue that KMD and Jahudo I guess are the only 2 players that look town, and argue that since scum didn't kill anyone, its because one of the town looking players must be scum and killing one of them would give it away.

And then, you argue that you want to lynch one of the 2 players that you yourself just got done arguing that they look town, rather than any of the other players that, by process of elimination, don't look town?

And on top of this, you have a case against KMD, which effectively means that you don't think KMD looks town?

*commence asplodin'*
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Post Post #2396 (isolation #84) » Thu Oct 14, 2010 2:17 am

Post by Rhinox »

Anyone feel like summing up the case on plum for me?

My thinking is, it seems unlikely chrono and plum are scum together, and all current evidence points to only 1 faction. Reasoning is, chrono seemed to have a very powerful role ability that evidence points to as being unused - so surely scum would try to swing the lynch to the less valuable scum, yes? Can't think of a scum role more powerful than an extra kill, so... I suppose there are some possibilities for which chrono's ability was used, and if it was, that would make him the preferential bussing target with 2 scums on the chopping block. There's no evidence of it being used though.

Looking at the final vote count of the day, there are 2 groups -

1)those voting chrono {Jahudo, Locke Lamora, Rhinox, Nachomamma8, kmd4390, holycon, Fishythefish}

and 2)those voting elsewhere {Ythan, esurispiritus, kunkstar7, Battosuai, Charlie, Plum}

Not sure how many scum left, I'd say at least 3 and no more than 5, I can only fit nacho and holy as possible scum out of the bussing group. Out of the other group, there are a whole bunch of maybees, where at least 1 and maybe more is scum. I'd say there is a high probability of scum in a group of {batt, charlie, and plum}. Ythan makes me nervous with all those votes. kunk replaced amished who I initially had a town read on. I only started losing my town read as amished became less active, but thats consistent with his eventual replacing out, so the town read stands and carries over to kunk. esuris started very strong and has seemed pro-town in every post.

I think the best chance of hitting scum today is

VOTE: holy

Its going to be tougher to pick scum out of the second group, I think.
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Post Post #2397 (isolation #85) » Thu Oct 14, 2010 2:48 am

Post by Rhinox »

Batt, there's still some holes in your argument for why scum would choose to no kill.

Firstly, If jahudo and kmd really are the only 2 players every feels is town, then town-jahudo could have been safely killed and no one would have suspected hyposcum-kmd for it anymore today. In fact, Jah is more pro-town looking than kmd AND has more votes, so I would say he is a higher priority scum nk than kmd. So unless jah and kmd are both scum, your argument doesn't make any sense.

Secondly, you're assuming that scum would only have motivation to kill the towniest looking town players. I could see me or Ythan and high priority scum nk choices for the chance of getting extra votes under scum control, unless we're both scum too.

Thridly is the power of wifom. Leaving players alive that you think should have been nked by now makes town suspect them more. I suspect Ythan more because he hasn't been nked, but I can't lynch him for that.

Fourthly, intentionally no-killing possibly gives us an extra lynch we wouldn't have otherwise had.

Fifthly, you ignored possibilities of the kill being prevented by roles we are not yet aware of.

So, with those points in mind, there really is no reason to believe that at this point of the game, scum would intentionally choose to no kill, making it a horrible argument to use as a final push to convince everyone to vote KMD, as you did here.
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Post Post #2399 (isolation #86) » Thu Oct 14, 2010 6:01 am

Post by Rhinox »

jahudo wrote:Rhinox, the problem I see with holycon is that she's spent so much time in V/LA (which I have to believe is legitimate V/LA) that her lack of scumhunting and lateness in joining wagons close to deadline can't be as reliable a point as it normally could. How do you see holycon's vote as a possible bus? Take into account that she was suspicious of Chrono earlier in the game. Does that time frame look like possible distancing too?

I have a neutral stance on holycon because I don't think we've seen the "real her" in this game very much.
Its mostly a PoE thing. There's got to be at least 1 scum voting chrono, and of the list of players voting choro, the only ones I can imagine as scum are holy or nacho. You can fishy are probtown. kmd and locke I'm less sure of, but still leaning town. I could go either way between nacho and holy, but I chose holy this time because nacho seems to be attempting more input as of late.
jahudo wrote:What do you mean? The only type of evidence I can think of is a tracker/watcher claim, like a watcher who saw no one target someone who got killed.
Not sure what you're asking here. Chrono's flip implies he had a 1-shot kill, and there aren't any unaccounted for extra kills out there, so I inferred that chrono didn't use his ability and would make plum the preferential bus yesterday if both were scum.
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Post Post #2402 (isolation #87) » Thu Oct 14, 2010 9:07 am

Post by Rhinox »

KMD wrote:GUYS, FISH IS IN THE SAME BOAT AS YTHAN WAS WITH THE MILLAR KILL. IT WAS AN INVENTION GIVEN TO HIM AND SAYS NOTHING ABOUT HIS ALIGNMENT. It's possible that scum no-killed so that Fish could claim something. It's possible that it wasn't even a doc-protect that he got. Maybe he still has another unused kill or something (unlikely, but possible). We don't know enough about this to be all "Fish is obvtown cuz he claimed doc-protect HURHURHUR".
Its not quite the same boat. See my post a lil while back for reasons why scum aren't just going to no kill, and scum-fishy isn't going to just happen to accidently block a scum kill, while scum-ythan could kill town regardless of alignment with a 1-shot kill. Ani claimed the doc 1-shot ability almost immediately upon getting it, and fishy first refused to say whether he chose to protect anyone last night before turning around just to say he did use the ability. I don't think that was all staged, so I feel fish really did use a doc protect, and isn't just claiming to have prevented a kill that was prevented for other reasons. He's also going about the claiming/not claiming target considerations in a very pro-town way. Its all pointing to fishy being prob-town.
Rhinox, why can't Fish have bussed Chro?
Due to the above reasons I view fishy as obv-town, I didn't look at his vote in the context of possible bussing. I don't think he's scum, ergo he wasn't bussing.
And as much as I appreciate being excluded there, why not me?
I'm hesitant to say this, but I feel as if the effort you've put into the VC analysis earlier in the game seemed to go above and beyond the effort most scum would put into appearing to scum hunt, especially in a slow game like this one.
And why is Holy more likely scum who bussed than Batt or Charlie scum who didn't?
PoE. I feel pretty confident at least 1 of holy or nacho are scum. Its going to be harder to sort out who is scum among {ythan, charlie, batt, plum, (kunk), (esuris)} - kunk and esuris I'm confident aren't scum, but ?/4 are scum out of the other 4 and I can't get better odds out of it than 1/2 or better between nacho and holy.
To the bolded, why not?
too wifomy
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Post Post #2432 (isolation #88) » Sun Oct 17, 2010 11:23 am

Post by Rhinox »

kunk wrote:This was something interesting that I missed. Looking at Chrono's flip he was a one-shot Ninja, which to my knowledge is a Ninja to Tracker serves as the equivalent of a GF to Cop, meaning the tracker can't track the Ninja, as per this Wiki Page: Ninja. Where did you get that definition of Ninja? With my definition of Ninja, I don't believe that you could tell whether its been used or not considering the Tracker was Lynched Day Two, and I'm guessing that was the counter to the Ninja.
Interesting. Alright, through what I said out the window then. I didn't have an official definition, I was just guessing. I thought nija was just flavor (didn't know it was actually a role), and usually 1-shot roles flip with what their 1 shot ability is, so I assumed 1-shot kill was the default ability when a qualifier wasn't present.
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Post Post #2438 (isolation #89) » Mon Oct 18, 2010 2:54 am

Post by Rhinox »

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Post Post #2453 (isolation #90) » Mon Oct 18, 2010 7:40 am

Post by Rhinox »

Kmd4390 wrote:
Jahudo wrote:I can't think of a scum advantage in Rhinox's posts for not knowing, or pretending to not know what a ninja role does. So the issue seems unimportant to me.
It's not about scum advantage's.

Or even pretending not to know anything.

I want his answer before I explain.
The answer is in my post. Either you did not read it, or you did not understand it. I'm not going to waste my time coming up with new words to answer something thats already been answered. If you will instead tell me which part of my answer does not make sense to you, I will clarify. Otherwise, does it help if I rearrange the sentances?
rhinox wrote:usually 1-shot roles flip with what their 1 shot ability is
rhinox wrote:I thought ninja was just flavor
rhinox wrote:(didn't know it was actually a role)
rhinox wrote:so I assumed 1-shot kill was the default ability when a qualifier wasn't present.
So get on with your point.
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Post Post #2463 (isolation #91) » Tue Oct 19, 2010 3:44 am

Post by Rhinox »

Kmd4390 wrote:Rhinox, I don't see how unknown ability = "Oh, must be an extra kill".
I would expect to see 1-shot vig or 1-shot tracker or 1-shot nk-immune or some qualifier. All I saw was 1-shot "mafia". I didn't think it was an unknown ability, I thought by default, 1-shot without a qualifier means 1-shot kill.
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Post Post #2464 (isolation #92) » Tue Oct 19, 2010 3:45 am

Post by Rhinox »

Locke Lamora wrote:
Vote: Plum


There's a distinct absence of pro-town vibes coming from Plum. I think lately she's just been focusing on making Batt look bad and isn't really interested in a whole lot else. Vastly prefer this to the Batt lynch, as I really don't see the case there.

Holy's Batt 'case' makes my head hurt.
Would you consider lynching holy?
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Post Post #2469 (isolation #93) » Tue Oct 19, 2010 9:58 am

Post by Rhinox »

Kmd4390 wrote:Rhinox, I don't see how unknown ability = "Oh, must be an extra kill".
jahudo wrote:@Rhinox: So did you see the Columbian part as flavor, but didn't see anything that looked like a role (RB, Voyeur, etc?)
I read "Columbian Mafia Ninja" as flavor for a member of the columbia mafia faction with a "1-shot" ability which my mind interpretted to be a 1-shot kill by default because my mind did not see a qualifier describing the 1-shot. And I didn't really think about it any more than that until now. I didn't interpret Ninja as a role or ability because I've never seen it before, and because it was separated from "1-shot". For example, if the flip would have said "Columbian Mafia 1-shot ninja" or "1-shot ninja in Columbian Mafia", I might have paused and asked myself "wait, whats a ninja?". But with the actual syntax of the flip, "1-shot ninja" did not get pieced together in my head. Now that its pointed out to me that ninja is actually a role, its obvious to me.
Kmd4390 wrote:Rhinox, I don't see how unknown ability = "Oh, must be an extra kill".
Because when I hear 1-shot, unless its specified as something like 1-shot nk immune or 1-shot RB or 1-shot whatever, I usually hear "1-shot" on its own when referring to 1-shot kills by default.

I'm still waiting to hear the point though.

-----------------------------
Locke Lamora wrote:Yes. I've been arguing for that for days now and I haven't seen all that much support for it, though. Maybe that's just because her scumbuddies are doing their best to ignore her scumminess. If Ythan wants to lynch Holy, it'd be a different matter.
Well, my votes give her 2. Your vote would be 3. I think esurio could get behind a holy lynch, given this post. Batt started out the day voting holy yesterday, so there's more possible support.

How about a quick survey of other players so I don't have to search through the thread, Why is no one talking about let alone voting holy? KMD thinks he saw a town tell dropped that he can't remember, so thats it?

Just did a search for holy's posts. Remember this post? On Oct 12th, "RL has gotten in teh way". 23 other game posts back to
Oct 7th, the previous post in this game. So that 23 posts in less than 5 days in other games, but due to RL, holy was to busy to post in this game?
jahudo wrote:Rhinox, the problem I see with holycon is that she's spent so much time in V/LA (which I have to believe is legitimate V/LA) that her lack of scumhunting and lateness in joining wagons close to deadline can't be as reliable a point as it normally could. How do you see holycon's vote as a possible bus? Take into account that she was suspicious of Chrono earlier in the game. Does that time frame look like possible distancing too?

I have a neutral stance on holycon because I don't think we've seen the "real her" in this game very much.
Jahudo, I don't like discussing other players' V/LA because it can be a sensitive issue, but I think the fact that holy posted 23 game posts elsewhere in the 5 days preceding a claim that RL was preventing posting in this game is enough for me to forgo allowing V/LA to excuse holy's play in this game, whether legitimate or not.

Holy's early suspicion on chrono does not really change my opinion any. Especially looking at the end of day 2 when egl was getting lynched:
ive seen alot of people jump on the EGL wagon without saying why and TBH I don't see him being even HALF as scummy as say ani or chrono or charlie
---------------
also my vote on chrono stays i have not seen anything from him yet to make me not think hes scum
Just seems like scum trying to nab some town cred because it was obvious chrono was not going to get lynched as holy was the only one voting chrono at the time. Richard was the other potential wagon at the time, and holy could have chose to assist that wagon and prevent the EGL lynch that she doesn't like, but instead chooses to leave her vote in a useless place. IIRC, holy did have some strong suspicions of richard in D1 and even if they weren't as strong in D2 according to this post, I get the impression that holy should have greatly preferred a richard lynch to a EGL lynch.

----------------------

Did anyone point me to a place where the case on plum is summarized yet? Just trying to get a feel from players currently voting her where the motivation for lynching her is coming from.

----------

The "Where I'm at" section...

{nacho, holy} - at least 1 of these 2 bussed chorno. I can not build a reasonable case for scum out of the rest of the players voting chrono yesterday:
{Jahudo, Locke, myself, kmd, fishy}


{
Ythan,
esurio, kunk,
batt
,
charlie, plum
} - Everyone else, voting either plum (bold) or fishy (underline) yesterday. My reads eliminate esurio and kunk. There's definitely scum in the group of 4 remaining.

Holy is my preferred lynch today, and I would also be accepting of a nacho lynch. No one's got the balls to go after ythan, charlie's not a candidate, and I'm not liking having to choose between batt or plum, as neither appears markably scummier than the other at the moment.
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Post Post #2485 (isolation #94) » Wed Oct 20, 2010 9:28 am

Post by Rhinox »

Jahudo wrote:
Rhinox wrote:Did anyone point me to a place where the case on plum is summarized yet? Just trying to get a feel from players currently voting her where the motivation for lynching her is coming from.
I think the Chrono-Plum connections are pretty strong. Have you looked at yesterday again taking into account that Chronopie was a ninja role and not an extra kill? Does that change anything for you?
I'm missing the chrono-plum connections. Can you point me to a post that displays or summarizes this?

Yes, I've went back and been reading plum in iso a few times, trying to take an objective view. Nothing in particular points me to a conclusion of town or scum. She's 1 out of 6 candidates I have for the remaining scum, and there were some things in raider's play I find scummy, but I'm still just trying to get a feel for what in particular of plum's play everyone is seeing that I'm not.

Is plum on V/LA or something? haven't had a decent post from her in a week.

*time passes*

yup, after isoing both plum and chrono, I'm just not seeing the connections there. someone help me out, what am I missing?
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Post Post #2486 (isolation #95) » Wed Oct 20, 2010 9:42 am

Post by Rhinox »

Alright just went back through raider's iso and some things I pointed out back in the early game and yeah, there are definitely things there I could lynch plum for. But, I don't see anything in plum's play alone that is so bad, or any connection to chrono.
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Post Post #2493 (isolation #96) » Thu Oct 21, 2010 2:38 am

Post by Rhinox »

Well, if I have to choose between Batt and Plum, I think I have to

VOTE: plum

Jahudo, fishy, and esurio support it - my 3 strongest town reads today.

holy and nacho are both voting batt - at least 1 of them is scum.

There's enough in raider's play to justify a lynch.

If plum is reading the thread at all, she should claim (its been over a week since we've got a real post from her...)
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Post Post #2497 (isolation #97) » Thu Oct 21, 2010 6:24 am

Post by Rhinox »

Anyone have any thoughts on this from way back early in the game. I'm thinking, nail in the coffin:
Rhinox #400 wrote:
raider8169 wrote:
Rhinox wrote:Anything you want to clear up regarding this before I go into this slip any further?
Slip? Please do. My first line had 5 simple words.
Well, you said...
raider8169 wrote:
Looking at my role and how the PM was formed I dont buy the claim.
Plus who cares if (s)he gets a funeral or not. If that means his will doesnt count then its just one less vote that one person will control. Remember the key is to not let one person gain control of most of the votes.
There are 2 contradicting issues I see...

first is regarding the bolded, said in regards to this claim by millar:
millar wrote:CLAIM: I'm the princess, well technically the prince lol. Except according to my message if i have read it correctly, i am only given a funeral if i am killed during the day.
...but if I go back and look at the general townie PM in the opening posts:
Vanilla wrote:You are a Vanilla Townie

You do not have any special powers in this town.

You do have the ability to pass on your vote to others when you die. You must send me a list of all the players in the game, ordered from who you most want to recieve your vote, or votes, when you die, to least

You win when all threats to the town are eliminated
...I don't see anything in there where I can conclusively say based on the role or how the PM was formed, that millar is lying. That tells me you're either softclaiming a non-vanilla role, or you're lying.

The second part is regarding the italicized part of your post. After you tell us you don't believe millar, the second half of your post carries the inherant assumption that millar is telling the truth, and it would be better to lynch him so he can't pass on his voting ability, which you feel is a good thing.

tl;dr: Raider's "Looking at my role and how the PM was formed I dont buy the claim." statement makes no sense given a vanilla townie claim because the vanilla role PM does not give any insight into whether any other non-vanilla role claim (aka millar's claim) is a lie based on the role and how the PM was formed.

So, I don't have any more doubts with this lynch.
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Post Post #2510 (isolation #98) » Tue Oct 26, 2010 8:23 am

Post by Rhinox »

I don't know yet if I support a mass claim today.

In all likeliness, scum will not control 12 votes tomrrow unless ythan is scum
or
there are currently 5 living scum members, all vote transfers from today's lynch and tonights nk go to scum, and KMD and I are both scum. Thats a lot of conditions of which I know 1 is not true. So if ythan is not scum, mass claim can wait until tomorrow.

So, if I'm going to support a mass claim, I have to think that ythan is scum. Because mass claim isn't necessarily the best strategy unless ythan is scum. And if I'm that confident thinking ythan is scum enough to justify a mass claim, maybe I feel comfortable enough to lynch him without a mass claim anyways.

Does that make any sense?

In my head, its like saying, *hypothetical example* If player A is scum, its mylo, so we should no lynch. but in order to believe its mylo, you have to believe player A is scum, so you should lynch player A instead of no lynching. Conversly, if I don't believe player A is scum, then I don't believe its mylo, so I don't support no lynch. Just replace no lynch with mass claim.

Now, if ythan is not scum, we're not planning on lynching him, and we mass claim anyways, its not necessarily a bad thing, it just means we've done it at least 1 day too early. Not the end of the world. To justify doing that, though, I'd have to believe there was some other upside to mass claiming now. Or, at least, that there was no downside.

So I've got to think about all this for a while.


At this moment in time, Nacho, holy, batt, charlie, and ythan are all under my consideration for voting today.
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Post Post #2520 (isolation #99) » Wed Oct 27, 2010 2:08 pm

Post by Rhinox »

Battousai wrote:mass claim won't change my mind...
That doesn't make any sense. If mass claim won't change your mind, why do you support a mass claim? from a townies perspective, that should make mass claiming unneccessary.
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Post Post #2525 (isolation #100) » Thu Oct 28, 2010 7:34 am

Post by Rhinox »

nacho wrote:
batt wrote:Really think. Is Kmd scum? You have to figure this out for yourself, don't allow others to influence the decision as they may have alterior motives. And when you do think about it, and you should, you will realize that Kmd is scum.

At this point, he's acting like there's some man behind the curtain who's blocking us from seeing kmd-scum; but who, other than plum (the person who were were wagoning, by the way), had been defending kmd and calling him the towniest of town?
This is a good point here.

Batt, who are the others that you feel were influencing town not to vote KMD?

-----------------------------
charlie wrote:These are actually good but circumstantial evidence against myself. It sounds convincing but it fall short because of the slow nature of the game and feels more like a half-hearted attempt to scum hunt. This can only mean one of two things:
1) Town aligned players not trying hard enough
2) Mafia aligned players taking an easy target
Emotional appeals aside, how can you justify accusing players who suspect you of being "Town aligned players not trying hard enough" when I think everyone will agree that if you are town, it doesn't appear as if you are trying very hard at all?

-----------------------------

I'm getting really close to voting ythan.

firstly, I think he needs a prod. Hasn't posted here in 8 days.


We've got scum-chrono sending him 2 votes. Wifom, but important.

Look at ythan's iso day 6. He gives an intent to vote plum without giving any reasons. Then he bickers with charlie for most of the day with useless side conversations because he obviously has no intentions of voting him, and isn't trying to convince anyone of charlie's scummyness. He contributed nothing to scum hunting in day 6.

Oh, there's the OMGUS ad hom attack against esurio.

A tinfoil hat theory: His attempted vote (x1) on plum to keep track of him. I didn't bring this up before because its sort of stretchy, but when he did that if all his votes would have counted it would have been a hammer. The mod has already clarified that votes could not be split before ythan tried to vote. I feel like this could have been a shenanigans ploy to quickhammer plum while appearing to not know he was hammering.

more wifom: hypo-town ythan should be a high priority scum target.

hypo-town ythan should be a more active scumhunter because it is becoming unlikely that the town will be able to secure a lynch without town-ythan's support.

Another tinfoil hat theory: killing millar - scum ythan would have no reason to believe that town richard was lying about his role or that town millar was lying about his role. ythan would also know from the discussion at the time that richard was under a ton of pressure to kill millar with his weak doctor ability, even though ythan claims it should have been obvious that he (ythan) always intended to kill millar. So by targetting millar, it in theory should have kept millar alive for the possibility of a BP lynch, and also kept the option of a richard mislynch because it would have been more evidence that he was lying about his role. All things that scum ythan would love to happen.

Alright, I'm really seeing ythan-charlie scum team connection everywhere I look in ythan's iso. They've bickered back and forth half-heartedly all game. Likely distancing - none of it comes off as genuine, like neither are actually trying to convince anyone that the other is scum, but they want everyone to see that they think the other is scummy. Ythan's never voted him. Will check charlie's iso later.

Is this set of exchanges why ythan was so hell-bent on lynching plum?
plum wrote:There's another scum faction in this game? Doesn't look too much like it, all things considered. I've learned to heavily distrust slips of even the most damning nature and can easily think of ways the phrasing could have happened by accident. Again, it really doesn't indicate anything unless there are two scum factions, and that is extremely unlikely, so.
ythan wrote:That is an incredibly damning slip though.
plum wrote:I've seen worse (or as bad at least if my memory doesn't fail) flip Town.
ythan wrote:We've all seen obvscum flip town. But you're trying to use that to say that only weak evidence should be used, or something crazy.
I'm more certain about you now.
because that doesn't make any sense because the last thing he said about plum before this was:
ythan wrote:If Plum is scum as raider's replacement then at least she has been attacking players I like even less (in a town versus scum way) since she got here. VI replaced by innocent or heavy busser. I'd prefer a not Plum lynch today. That means Chuck/Fan/Xite at the moment.
Ythan did not comment anything at all for or against chrono when he was getting lynched. I didn't find a single opinion about chrono all game. I find it odd that a townie would allow a player he's given no opinion about to get lynched. He wasn't even arguing for his preferred lynch (plum). He was instead pointless bickering elsewhere while the lynch occurred.

In short, I'm running out of reasons to think ythan is town.
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Post Post #2526 (isolation #101) » Thu Oct 28, 2010 7:53 am

Post by Rhinox »

charlie wrote:And back to a pet peeve I've been having: We're assuming a single mafia team of 5-6 members, all tagged as Colombian Mafia. This I find strange, even if it is just flavour. I recently just realized that Colombia is a South American country. Last Will Mafia I had flavour with Swiss Mafia and Egyptian Mafia, both European countries. Now, it seems we're in South America. I dunno, even for flavour, it seems very strange to have just 1 mafia team. 2 would fit, and to explain the lack of double kills (except for the 1-shot vig claimed by Ytahn) each night, there is either mafia shenannigans, too-good-to-be-true Town blocking, or setup related mechanics (even/odd night kills) going on.

Why I think so: a mafia team of 6 players means that they already control half of half of the votes needed to win (yes, 6 out of the required 12) at the beginning of the game. Furthermore, we've been through 4 mislynches and 5 Night related deaths with votes passing onto different people. At one point, Chronopie received 2 votes. I... ain't feeling the setup with this, people.

... I speculate on the setup too much. But if I'm right, that means we're looking at connections the wrong way. We should try looking in groups of 3, maybe?
No, I don't agree with any of this.

Well, first let me say that I have no problem with suspecting that there might be 2 mafias, but in no way should that change our scum hunting at this point of the game, I don't think. Or rather, let me ask, how would assuming 2 groups of 3 mafias help us scumhunt better than assuming 1 mafia?

Secondly, you're assuming that there are 6 mafia members, but you argue that one team of 6 is too strong, so they must be broken into 2 teams. Why not 1 team of 5, or even fewer? my thinking is, with the will mechanic, lynching a scum does not necessarily remove a scum voting power, so a smaller single mafia team makes sense.

Thridly, no crosskills. Look at the night kills: Diacria, Twomz, MSH, xite, (jahudo), (jahudo) fishy. 4 out of the 6 were attempts on obvtown players. Scum aren't attempting to crosskill. Actually, xite was also obvtown IMO but not others.

So all the evidence other than a named mafia points to their only being 1 scum group.
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Post Post #2527 (isolation #102) » Thu Oct 28, 2010 7:55 am

Post by Rhinox »

batt wrote:Rhinox- mass claim won't change my mind on KMD. It may help find other scum and it may help others find scum.
But why massclaim today then? If you think KMD is scum and massclaim won't change your mind, then why give scum information today rather than waiting to massclaim, say, tomorrow?
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Post Post #2530 (isolation #103) » Thu Oct 28, 2010 9:46 am

Post by Rhinox »

Jahudo: or it can be simply mod error that its a u instead of an o. A recent game of mine saw a player rage and quote a role PM because the mod mistakingly gave him the flavor name of john o'conner instead of john conner from terminator. Point is, a named mafia does not imply more than 1. 'specially when there is no evidence to suggest more than 1.

Can we get on with scum hunting rather than unhelpful speculation?
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Post Post #2536 (isolation #104) » Fri Oct 29, 2010 1:25 am

Post by Rhinox »

Oh. I don't like how you're brushing off the speculation...
firstly, you're strawmanning me, because this:
Well, first let me say that I have no problem with suspecting that there might be 2 mafias, but in no way should that change our scum hunting at this point of the game, I don't think. Or rather, let me ask, how would assuming 2 groups of 3 mafias help us scumhunt better than assuming 1 mafia?

Secondly, you're assuming that there are 6 mafia members, but you argue that one team of 6 is too strong, so they must be broken into 2 teams. Why not 1 team of 5, or even fewer? my thinking is, with the will mechanic, lynching a scum does not necessarily remove a scum voting power, so a smaller single mafia team makes sense.

Thridly, no crosskills. Look at the night kills: Diacria, Twomz, MSH, xite, (jahudo), (jahudo) fishy. 4 out of the 6 were attempts on obvtown players. Scum aren't attempting to crosskill. Actually, xite was also obvtown IMO but not others.

So all the evidence other than a named mafia points to their only being 1 scum group.
and this:
Jahudo: or it can be simply mod error that its a u instead of an o. A recent game of mine saw a player rage and quote a role PM because the mod mistakingly gave him the flavor name of john o'conner instead of john conner from terminator. Point is, a named mafia does not imply more than 1. 'specially when there is no evidence to suggest more than 1.
are examples of me not brushing off the speculation.

Secondly,
charlie wrote:1) Looking for 2 links of 3 (or a pair and a group of 3 to make 5) rather than a link of 5 or 6.
This doesn't make any sense to me as an answer for how knowing or speculating about the exact makeup of the mafia group(s) today should help or alter how we scumhunt. We have 1 dead scum. We can look for links to the 1 dead scum or we can look for individual scumminess. I don't see how that changes if we think there is 1 scum team vs. if we think there are 2. The only time it could even come into play right now is if someone tried to eliminate a scum candidate on the grounds of "impossible to be scum with chrono", and no one falls into that category.

In short, more time scumhunting and less time speculating over something that is currently meaningless. Or, turn your speculation into some practical scumhunting by showing me how youo're looking for "2 links of 3 (or a pair and a group of 3 to make 5) rather than a link of 5 or 6", rather than planting an idea meant to cause confusion and doubt within the town.
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Post Post #2538 (isolation #105) » Fri Oct 29, 2010 2:56 am

Post by Rhinox »

Charlie wrote:Okay Rhinox, you win the argument. I see no point in saying more. Just these 2 bits:
Rhinox wrote:In short, more time scumhunting and less time speculating over something that is currently meaningless. Or, turn your speculation into some practical scumhunting by showing me how youo're looking for "2 links of 3 (or a pair and a group of 3 to make 5) rather than a link of 5 or 6",
rather than planting an idea
meant to cause confusion and doubt within the town
.
Inception is a good movie!

Objection, that's not fair of you to say that
My brain ninjas are on to you Leo :twisted:

but yeah, replace "meant to" with "which can" and its then a fair comment.
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Post Post #2556 (isolation #106) » Mon Nov 01, 2010 2:04 am

Post by Rhinox »

holycon wrote:Sorry for not posting kinda forgot about this game

not willing to lynch kmd is be more willing to lynch batt and rhinox makes a good case against ythan
and with him having so many votes can we risk him not being town

If we lynch him, his votes will go somewhere else. How do you think you would feel about whoever receives Ythan's votes?


Since last Sunday, Oct 24th, your game posts:
Other games: 32 (21+11)
This game: 1

Goin back farther is the same trend, lots of posts in your other games, hardly any in this game.

I know you said you "forgot about this game" but what makes this game different than your other 2 that you're having such a hard time remembering to post here?
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Post Post #2561 (isolation #107) » Mon Nov 01, 2010 4:07 am

Post by Rhinox »

Ythan, do you think charlie is scum?
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Post Post #2563 (isolation #108) » Mon Nov 01, 2010 4:13 am

Post by Rhinox »

If not charlie, who else do you think could be scum?
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Post Post #2565 (isolation #109) » Mon Nov 01, 2010 6:00 am

Post by Rhinox »

Ythan wrote:
Ythan wrote:reminding folks what time of year it is
Yeah, still gonna get to it when I'm gonna get to it.
I'd settle for names now and reasons later.
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Post Post #2568 (isolation #110) » Mon Nov 01, 2010 7:56 am

Post by Rhinox »

KMD, your list isn't really all that dissimilar than mine. Except for nacho. Did you ever give a reason why you've got a strong town read on him? Also, I don't know why you'd have any town read whatsoever on holy.

My list in your format:
TOWN

Rhinox
Jahudo

LESS SOLID TOWN READS

Locke
KMD
esurio
kunk

LEFTOVERS (SCUM GOES HERE)

Ythan
Batt
Charlie
Nacho
Holy

I've got Ythan and Batt in the same place as you. An earlier post explains my concerns with Ythan.

With Batt, I had a gut scum read on pittbunny. Then when Batt replaced in, I thought he started out well enough to bump me up to a town read, but since then I've felt he's been becoming progressively scummier.

Esurio - Didn't have a read on her predecessors and when she replaced in she gave me a very strong town read. What makes me uncomfortable is that for a while, posts were only coming in about once a week or so.

Kunk - town read carried over from amished, but only 6 posts in a month since replacing in is unacceptable.

Locke - has been moving progressively more town as the game goes on.

You (KMD) - I've felt as if you've been genuinely scum hunting all game. Even when you say something like "I do these same things as scum", thats not something scum-you would tell town-me, thats something town-you says when you suspect me of being scum who doesn't seem genuine about my read on you.

And Jahudo is Jahudo. The conspiracist in me wonders about shenanigans with the scum nk leading fishy to "clear" Jahudo, but it seems to unlikely. Jahudo is prob-town.


I have to look back to the chrono lynch because I will not accept that chrono was lynched without being bussed

From my POV, the only possible chrono bussers left are {nacho, holy, Locke, and KMD}. From KMD's POV: {nacho, holy, Locke, Rhinox}

Questions for KMD:
Do you agree that at least 1 scum was probably bussing chrono? 3/4 possibilities for you, you have listed as town reads, so naturally if I lead you down this road, there is a chance it may strengthen your scum read on me, but if you can believe for a minute that I'm town, I'm really hoping to get you to see that there must be scum in {nacho, holy}, assuming that I'm accurate with my town reads on you and Locke.

From Locke's POV: {nacho, holy, rhinox, KMD}

Questions for Locke:
Do you think at least 1 scum was bussing chrono? Obviously I don't want you to think its me and I'm pretty sure its not jahudo, so what do you think about the likliness of nacho and/or holy being scum?
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Post Post #2583 (isolation #111) » Wed Nov 03, 2010 3:20 am

Post by Rhinox »

Batt, again I'm finding myself having a hard time following your logic.

Why would town anyonegive their votes to someone who was likely going to be nked when they can simply transfer their vote(s) to their own town reads? Just because Jahudo is obvtown doesn't mean he's any more likely to make a smart vote transfer decision than any Joe Townie we may lynch today. All you're proposing is a plan that consolidates a large number of votes to 1 player. Which means at any time, scum is one bad vote transfer away from getting a majority. I can't see this plan benefitting anyone but scum.

Furthermore, lynching a player because "if they're town they have an obvtown player to transfer votes to?" If we vote to lynch ythan it should be because he is scum, not because if he is town he can send his votes to jahudo, which as I explained above, I think is a bad plan. And if you think ythan is scum, you shouldn't have to think about a plan for who hypo-town ythan should transfer his votes to if he's lynched - because if he's scum, he's not going to do what the town wants.
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Post Post #2622 (isolation #112) » Fri Nov 05, 2010 9:10 am

Post by Rhinox »

ythan wrote:You'll settle for less than that. When I have names they'll come with reasons. Think in a way that makes sense plz.
Right now I think that I don't know who you think is scum. I think you spend a lot of time bickering with charlie but I don't think you are trying to convince anyone to lynch him. That concerns me because it makes me think you are trying to appear to scum hunt, but I don't think you are actually scum hunting. Also, he is acting the same way towards you.

So while I really would like reasons to go with names, names would at least tell me that you're thinking about scumhunting, and I think that would ease my concerns a bit for now.
ythan wrote:Rhinox, would it be fair to assume that your turnaround on that aforementioned slot is based entirely on kunkstar's inactivity?

Also if it seems like I'm talking about amished/kunkstar a lot it will make more sense as time goes by.
I haven't ever "turned around" on kunks slot. Kunk's inactivity makes me less sure of the slot, but town read still trumps inactivity. I don't recall seeing anything in kunk's few posts to make me doubt my town read from amished.

I take it you think kunk is scum?

----------------------------------

@charlie: yes, I think you're exhange with ythan is pointless bickering. I think its irrelevent whether you're whining, but no, I didn't interpret it that way. The point is, you spend a lot of time bickering with him and you're not voting him or trying to convince anyone he's scum. I also think these 2 questions were pretty pointless, because they are not scum hunting questions - the answers will not lead you to determine who is scum.

----------------------------------
Battousai wrote:If I new we were going to be playing softball, I'd grab my bat and glove...
What do you mean by this?

----------------------------------

@charlie: regarding holy, holy iso 118
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Post Post #2626 (isolation #113) » Fri Nov 05, 2010 10:58 am

Post by Rhinox »

So... I still don't know who you think is scum. You were all for accountability when you tried to place that 1 vote on plum. Why the change?
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Post Post #2629 (isolation #114) » Fri Nov 05, 2010 3:11 pm

Post by Rhinox »

awesome
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Post Post #2677 (isolation #115) » Sun Nov 07, 2010 3:18 pm

Post by Rhinox »

nacho wrote:3) Rhinox. I don't like his play today at all. He will not accept that Chrono was lynched without being bussed. Fair enough. He has strong town reads on 2/4 unconfirmed people on the wagon other than himself. Fair enough. Yet, he still doesn't vote holy or I, which shows that the whole wagon theory was just a cheap attempt to not take a position on Charlie versus Batt.
rhinox, 2 days ago wrote:I like...

VOTE: Nacho

...the best right now.
rhinox, 1 day ago wrote:I think the best chance of hitting scum today is

VOTE: holy

Its going to be tougher to pick scum out of the second group, I think.
rhinox, today wrote:I have to look back to the chrono lynch because I will not accept that chrono was lynched without being bussed

From my POV, the only possible chrono bussers left are {nacho, holy, Locke, and KMD}. From KMD's POV: {nacho, holy, Locke, Rhinox}

Questions for KMD: Do you agree that at least 1 scum was probably bussing chrono? 3/4 possibilities for you, you have listed as town reads, so naturally if I lead you down this road, there is a chance it may strengthen your scum read on me, but if you can believe for a minute that I'm town, I'm really hoping to get you to see that there must be scum in {nacho, holy}, assuming that I'm accurate with my town reads on you and Locke.

From Locke's POV: {nacho, holy, rhinox, KMD}

Questions for Locke: Do you think at least 1 scum was bussing chrono? Obviously I don't want you to think its me and I'm pretty sure its not jahudo, so what do you think about the likliness of nacho and/or holy being scum?
^^^read as: desparately trying to lobby for support of my top lynch choices.
rhinox, who has been saying all along wrote:I feel pretty confident at least 1 of holy or nacho are scum. Its going to be harder to sort out who is scum among {ythan, charlie, batt, plum, (kunk), (esuris)} - kunk and esuris I'm confident aren't scum, but ?/4 are scum out of the other 4 and I can't get better odds out of it than 1/2 or better between nacho and holy.
So I haven't voted for holy (or you) yet because I've been having a bit of trouble getting any support. Tells me I'm probably on the right track, really. And since I'm not getting any support, I've been spending a lot of focus on this group today: {ythan, charlie, batt, (kunk), (esuris)}, not just charlie vs batt. You say I'm cheaply attempting to not take a position on charlie vs. batt, but in the quote above, I all but spelled out that I didn't want to have to take a position on anyone in the group I listed about today because I felt I had better odds lynching scum elsewhere.

So, there yoou go. Odd that we're coming down to the wire here, and you're just now voicing these concerns.

-------------------------

With jahudo voting charlie and ythan threatening to hammer, I think charlie needs to full claim.
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Post Post #2696 (isolation #116) » Fri Nov 12, 2010 6:58 am

Post by Rhinox »

How does popcorn work again? First person to claim picks who claims next and so on?

If all the scum are single voters, then by definition we are not at all close to LyLo right now. But depending on where the votes go for the next lynch and nk, the game could be over before D9 even if we lynch scum today.

So yes, Massclaim.

Any volunteers to start us off?
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Post Post #2715 (isolation #117) » Mon Nov 15, 2010 3:28 am

Post by Rhinox »

@nacho: all of done for the last 3 days is try to rally support for lynch you or holy - mostly holy. If you haven't seen that, maybe you should have stopped by the thead more often.

I didn't vote yesterday because I have multiple votes and where getting down to the wire here, so I was playing cautiously. If my desire to lynch holy ever seemed "half-assed", it wasn't until after I realized the lynch wasn't going to happen - mostly because jahudo and ythan wanted nothing to do with that lynch and with jahudo being confirmed town basically and both of them holding the majority of votes, it was pretty much impossible to get a lynch on a player other than who 1 of them preferred.

So, despite not wanting to have to decide between choices including batt, charlie, ythan, etc, I was forced to try to figure out who to vote for among them. You'll notice that after trying one last push to see if KMD or locke would support a holy lynch, nearly all of my questioning was directed towards ythan, batt, and charlie - not just ythan. And ythan hammered before I made my decision and voted. But with jahudo's support and ythan threatening to hammer, the lynch was going to happen regardless of what I or anyone else said at that point.

-------------------------------------------------------------

No more stalling...

I'm a
vanilla townie


ythan, holy, kunk - whoever sees this first can claim next.
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Post Post #2729 (isolation #118) » Mon Nov 15, 2010 2:46 pm

Post by Rhinox »

I have a feeling we're going to be waiting a while for holy to get around to claiming here... any chance we can get a prod?
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Post Post #2738 (isolation #119) » Wed Nov 17, 2010 5:31 am

Post by Rhinox »

anyone against the last 4 claiming ASAP and forgetting about the popcorning? I don't really have a preference between the last 4 anyways. By the time we finish claiming, we'll be hitting deadline. Enough stalling.
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Post Post #2743 (isolation #120) » Wed Nov 17, 2010 11:03 am

Post by Rhinox »

Ythan wrote:
Rhinox wrote:anyone against the last 4 claiming ASAP and forgetting about the popcorning? I don't really have a preference between the last 4 anyways. By the time we finish claiming, we'll be hitting deadline. Enough stalling.
Deadline is in TEN DAYS. There's a reason for popcorn. Did you not realize we have a week and a half or did you just intentionally lie?
It was hyperbole.

That said, claiming should be a 1 or 2 day thing, and the majority of the day should still be available for discussion. We've been mass claiming or talking about massclaiming without talking about who is scum or who we want to lynch for nearly 6 days now.
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Post Post #2750 (isolation #121) » Thu Nov 18, 2010 5:22 am

Post by Rhinox »

nacho: no, there are no elaborate cases anywhere per se, but cases aren't needed when its POE.

I think chrono was bussed, and I haven't thought it was me, KMD, or Locke.

With you, the reason I didn't have a town read on you was going all the way back to the way you tried to get EGL lynched. Its all you talked about up to his lynch, and then you disappeared for a while. That is why I voted you on day, was it 5? I can't remember. Here's the post: viewtopic.php?p=2531664#p2531664

Starting the next day, you were becoming more active and I remember thinking that you were making some good points. So I switched my attention to holy. Here is a post where I first started rallying support for a holy lynch and gave some justification - I guess you could call it a case: viewtopic.php?p=2585491#p2585491

And since then there have been other places where I've been trying to get support for lynching holy. I've already quoted them in another post. Not going to go dig them up again.

-----------------------------------------------

Alright, all claims are in. Time to hear some more about ythan's role.

I still think KMD is town, but I'd have preferred he not receive jahudo's votes. Reason is that it consolidates votes and makes it possible for scum to get a larger chunk of votes with 1 shot if KMD sends his votes to scum.

My top choices for lynch today are holy, ythan, and batt.

I'm worried about Locke, esurio, and kunk, but I don't currently have good reasons to think any of them are scum.. Not sure where nacho fits in today, but he's not one of my top 3 choices.

-----------------------------------------------

No one really commented on this when I posted it before. I'd like to resubmit it now for consideration:
Rhinox wrote:I'm getting really close to voting ythan.

firstly, I think he needs a prod. Hasn't posted here in 8 days.


We've got scum-chrono sending him 2 votes. Wifom, but important.

Look at ythan's iso day 6. He gives an intent to vote plum without giving any reasons. Then he bickers with charlie for most of the day with useless side conversations because he obviously has no intentions of voting him, and isn't trying to convince anyone of charlie's scummyness. He contributed nothing to scum hunting in day 6.

Oh, there's the OMGUS ad hom attack against esurio.

A tinfoil hat theory: His attempted vote (x1) on plum to keep track of him. I didn't bring this up before because its sort of stretchy, but when he did that if all his votes would have counted it would have been a hammer. The mod has already clarified that votes could not be split before ythan tried to vote. I feel like this could have been a shenanigans ploy to quickhammer plum while appearing to not know he was hammering.

more wifom: hypo-town ythan should be a high priority scum target.

hypo-town ythan should be a more active scumhunter because it is becoming unlikely that the town will be able to secure a lynch without town-ythan's support.

Another tinfoil hat theory: killing millar - scum ythan would have no reason to believe that town richard was lying about his role or that town millar was lying about his role. ythan would also know from the discussion at the time that richard was under a ton of pressure to kill millar with his weak doctor ability, even though ythan claims it should have been obvious that he (ythan) always intended to kill millar. So by targetting millar, it in theory should have kept millar alive for the possibility of a BP lynch, and also kept the option of a richard mislynch because it would have been more evidence that he was lying about his role. All things that scum ythan would love to happen.

Alright, I'm really seeing ythan-charlie scum team connection everywhere I look in ythan's iso. They've bickered back and forth half-heartedly all game. Likely distancing - none of it comes off as genuine, like neither are actually trying to convince anyone that the other is scum, but they want everyone to see that they think the other is scummy. Ythan's never voted him. Will check charlie's iso later.


Is this set of exchanges why ythan was so hell-bent on lynching plum?
plum wrote:There's another scum faction in this game? Doesn't look too much like it, all things considered. I've learned to heavily distrust slips of even the most damning nature and can easily think of ways the phrasing could have happened by accident. Again, it really doesn't indicate anything unless there are two scum factions, and that is extremely unlikely, so.
ythan wrote:That is an incredibly damning slip though.
plum wrote:I've seen worse (or as bad at least if my memory doesn't fail) flip Town.
ythan wrote:We've all seen obvscum flip town. But you're trying to use that to say that only weak evidence should be used, or something crazy.
I'm more certain about you now.
because that doesn't make any sense because the last thing he said about plum before this was:
ythan wrote:If Plum is scum as raider's replacement then at least she has been attacking players I like even less (in a town versus scum way) since she got here. VI replaced by innocent or heavy busser. I'd prefer a not Plum lynch today. That means Chuck/Fan/Xite at the moment.
Ythan did not comment anything at all for or against chrono when he was getting lynched. I didn't find a single opinion about chrono all game. I find it odd that a townie would allow a player he's given no opinion about to get lynched. He wasn't even arguing for his preferred lynch (plum). He was instead pointless bickering elsewhere while the lynch occurred.

In short, I'm running out of reasons to think ythan is town.
Regarding the part I struck, obviously ythan and charlie are not scum partners, but that doesn't weaken the rest of the case IMO. And I still find it odd that ythan bickered with charlie all game and didn't try to lynch him until yesterday. Its not like he suddenly became scummier or something. In fact, he had been playing better than earlier in the game.

I also notice that ythan did not even consider charlie's claim before voting.

While looking back, I noticed this:
esuriospiritus wrote:
Nachomamma8 wrote:I'm more receptive to having my mind changed now that's Charlie's claimed; I doubt that there's another protective role after a CPR Doc claim only counterclaimed by scum, a one-shot doctor protect, and a bodyguard flip.
This pretty much nails why I am not unvoting Charlie.
I'm curious to hear what both of you think of ythan's claim basically being ANOTHER protective role after adding the commuter role to this list.
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Post Post #2757 (isolation #122) » Thu Nov 18, 2010 1:58 pm

Post by Rhinox »

ythan wrote:It was hyperbole that you used to support your idea that we should stop popcorning
for no reason.
because it was taking too long and I didn't have any preference on claim order on the players remaining.

whats the importance of popcorning anyways?
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Post Post #2763 (isolation #123) » Fri Nov 19, 2010 2:59 am

Post by Rhinox »

esurio wrote:PEDIT: A lightning rod ability would just get him killed, so it's less of a protective role and more of a redirection. Mafia would still get to probably kill someone and end up one step closer to winning.
so.... how is a body guard a protective role and this isn't?

I think thats a slip.
ythan wrote:By the way we're not lynching me while I still have ammo for an ability that attracts scum kills.
I don't see that as a valid argument for keeping you alive.
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Post Post #2795 (isolation #124) » Mon Nov 22, 2010 9:40 am

Post by Rhinox »

ESURIO!
Rhinox wrote:
esurio wrote:PEDIT: A lightning rod ability would just get him killed, so it's less of a protective role and more of a redirection. Mafia would still get to probably kill someone and end up one step closer to winning.
so.... how is a body guard a protective role and this isn't?

I think thats a slip.
This needs a response.

-------

KMD: I agree that Ythan "uses his ability" tonight if he's not lynched today. If ythan is alive tomorrow, he's my lynch choice automatically. Today's lynch is important though and I'm not yet sure Batt is the choice. But nobody is getting lynched without your or ythan's votes, so...
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Post Post #2802 (isolation #125) » Tue Nov 23, 2010 8:11 am

Post by Rhinox »

note to all: I'll have limited access through the holiday weekend. Traveling to Boston for thanksgiving, leaving tonight. Returning sunday evening. I might be able to make short posts from my phone while I'm away. I probably won't return to full activity until tuesday. Posting this in all my games.

esurio wrote: borrowed someone else's words without bothering to clarify my own specific opinion. Had I cared enough at the time to rehash in my own words what Nacho had said, maybe I would have pointed out that bodyguards don't really 'protect' in the same sense a doctor or commuter does. Maybe. Although it really wouldn't have changed anything. Even if you ignore the "bodyguard" portion, you have to admit the CPR Doc fakeclaim and one-shot doctor protect is more than enough protection to be wary of a commuter claim especially in a game that doesn't seem to be particularly heavy on the power roles.
The fake cpr doc claim is more vig like than protective role like, plus it doesn't play into balance at all anyways because it was a FAKE CLAIM. So if you're now saying a bodyguard isn't a protective role either, you're now justifying your disbelief of charlie's claim on a fake claim, and a 1-shot doc that was passed out from an inventor? That doesn't seem like a reason to say that "there have been too many protective roles so I don't buy charlie's claim".

No, at the time, you used the fake claim, the 1-shot doc, AND the bodyguard as justification to disbelief charlies claim. Today you're pausing at the idea of ythan-scum based on nothing but the claim, and saying it doesn't count as a protective role when its functionally similar to a bodyguard.

For that matter, the fact that the bodyguard role is so similar to the claimed lightning rod role makes me doubt that they would both be present in the game, regardless of whether they are protective roles or not. I would expect one or the other, not both.

ythan+esurio scum pair anyone?

----------

Regarding Batt, I think KMD touched on this but I didn't put it together until just now, but is whole caps lock part is just fearmongering: "IF WE TRY AND CONFIRM YTHAN, THEN TOWN LOSES." - That is only true if it is LyLo and ythan is scum. Right now, it is not necessarily LyLo, and there are other scum we can lynch.

The reason I'm not ready to lynch him for it is because it is consistent with the way he attacked KMD earlier in the game, and I'm not sure if the consistency means thats just how he plays as town, or if he's consistent scum.

Gut is telling me that Batt is not scum. It also doesn't make sense that ythan is calling Batt "as blatant obvscum today as he was yesterday." Ythan never mentioned anything about batt being scummy at all before today. If batt was obvscum yesterday, why didn't ythan ever mention it or consider him for a lynch?

---------

I'm really putting a lot of faith into the idea that KMD is town, and nacho seems town today. I don't think scum-Nacho comes out of nowhere attacking ythan today.

---------

That leaves holy, kunk, and locke. I think I've already made my feelings on these 3 known.

---------

vote: ythan
for this post and other points I've presented earlier. I know there is a chance we can find out for sure whether ythan is scum, but it still relies on us being ale to lynch scum today, and I can't decide on anybody else I'm at all confident wouldn't be a mislynch.
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Post Post #2806 (isolation #126) » Tue Nov 23, 2010 4:55 pm

Post by Rhinox »

Kmd4390 wrote:Lynching ythan today makes no sense. Also I'm at xite's house and she says hi.
It makes sense if the alternative is lynching batt.
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Post Post #2811 (isolation #127) » Wed Nov 24, 2010 6:11 pm

Post by Rhinox »

Kmd4390 wrote:What about Kunk?
idk... is there really any case that he's scum, or is it only that he's been pretty inactive since replacing in? I don't know if I'm buying into the reasons locke gave.

Why not holy today?

esurio's contradiction regarding ythan's role brings him into the conversation, but IMO its only relevant if ythan is scum, so an ythan lynch would have to come first.
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Post Post #2829 (isolation #128) » Mon Nov 29, 2010 8:53 am

Post by Rhinox »

alright, sort of mostly back.

so, nothing at all happened while I was gone.

holy, esurio, and Batt need to be voting now! there is no reason not to. No one is getting lynched unless KMD or Ythan puts their votes there. It would be nice to know who you 3 want to lynch.
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Post Post #2849 (isolation #129) » Wed Dec 01, 2010 3:19 am

Post by Rhinox »

unvote


so kunk is clearly scum then, I guess.

Anything to discuss before lynching? Not voting yet because my two votes would put ythan in hammer range.
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Post Post #2853 (isolation #130) » Wed Dec 01, 2010 12:03 pm

Post by Rhinox »

Nachomamma8 wrote:
Rhinox wrote:Not voting yet because my two votes would put ythan in hammer range.
Why does that matter?
because I still think ythan is scum and don't want him to hammer if there is still conversation to be had
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Post Post #2863 (isolation #131) » Mon Dec 06, 2010 2:56 am

Post by Rhinox »

Alright, so Locke is almost certainly town. With ythan town, my suspicions on esurio reduce greatly, while its getting harder to ignore the reasons to lynch batt. And then holy and nacho, which one bussed chrono, etc.

My reads on this game have pretty much been flipped upside down recently, so I'm going to need to spend some time rereading and reevaluating the remaining players.
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Post Post #2876 (isolation #132) » Wed Dec 08, 2010 7:12 am

Post by Rhinox »

Locke Lamora wrote:Oh, and I'd like to know what everyone thinks on the subject of how many scum there are left. If everyone could simply answer that question in their next post, that'd be great.
probably 1, maybe 2. Defintely not 3.

You want reasoning yet, or just the number?
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Post Post #2883 (isolation #133) » Thu Dec 09, 2010 7:06 am

Post by Rhinox »

nacho wrote:I don't see where the hell Rhinox got one from.
I hinted at it earlier in the game but didn't dwell on it because there really isn't a downside to assuming more scum than less. Until we start coming to conclusions on who is/isn't scum based on number of votes and scum remaining anyways.

But this isn't a normal game. When we lynch scum, their power/influence does not necessarily leave the game. Their votes may end up going to their scum partners. Town also have a chance to send votes to scum - more scum means more likely scum are to receive votes from town and a greater chance scum win more quickly.

Thus, I expect scum to be scomewhat less numerous in this game than a game with normal mechanics.
nacho wrote:Locke is town. You should know this. After kunk DK'd kmd, locke had 11 votes. Plus kunk, 12 votes. Meaning that he would've only needed one more member to win. In other words, if you believe that he is scum, you only think that there's one scum member left. Meaning that you should be putting a bit more effort in your Locke read.

Rhinox, the same goes to you. Why don't you believe Locke is scum? He fits in your bussing theory, doesn't he?
umm I'm confused. I think you're saying the right thing but with the wrong vote totals. Locke has 10, kunk made 11. 12 is majority, so in order for Locke to be scum today, he has to be the last and only scum. If there are 2 or more scum right now, Locke can not be scum because the game would have been over yesterday after the daykill.

So to answer why Locke is not scum - just because he
can
be scum does not me he is more likely to be scum for starters. If there is 1 scum left, it CAN be locke, but that doesn't mean I should abandon the rest of my reads from the game and conclude that locke IS scum. And if there are 2 scum, which I haven't ruled out, then Locke is confirmed town by way of number of votes yesterday after KMD's death and while kunk was still alive.

So why should I believe locke is scum, especially if you think there are 3 scum left?


Nacho, from your POV {Rhinox, Batt, esurio, holy} 3 scum here out of 4? Who do you see as the likely town in the group?
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Post Post #2891 (isolation #134) » Mon Dec 13, 2010 11:34 am

Post by Rhinox »

nacho wrote:You shouldn't. You should, however, at least look a bit deeper into him. I must ask though, what does my belief have to do with anything?
I guess I'm just a little confused at what you're getting at. If you're pretty sure there is more than 1 scum left, then why should I look a little deeper into Locke? more than 1 scum means locke is town.

And just from a different perspective - I already said this, but even if I were 100% sure there were 1 scum left, that wouldn't be evidence that locke was the scum. Setup speculation aside, right now locke would probably be the last player I would lynch today anyways. My votes are going to you, holy, or batt today, I'd pretty much already determined that at the start of the day.
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Post Post #2902 (isolation #135) » Thu Dec 16, 2010 6:05 am

Post by Rhinox »

So, the board problems are really making it hard for me to read the game. I can't see full isos or full pages for some reasons.

I keep taking myself in WIFOM circles and I'm not really getting anywhere. I'd be willing to sheep Locke if he has a strong enough belief in his lynch choice. I can see compelling enough reasons to vote for any of the others, but none I can convince myself is more compelling.

Before I give up though, I want to take one last look at the votecounts leading up to the chrono lynch to see if anything is there. I really feel like that day holds the key. Fortunately, I was just able to get a full page load of the mod iso to get the votecounts.

Starting point:

Vote Count

nachomamma8 (2) - Rhinox
Battosuai (2) - kmd4390
Fishythefish (2) - Charlie, esuriospiritus
Holycon (2) - Battosuai, Locke Lamora

Not Voting (15) - Jahudo, fishythefish, Plum, Chronopie, Amished, Ythan, Holycon, Nachomamma8

Next:

Vote Count

Plum (6) - Ythan, esuriospiritus, Locke Lamora
Chronopie (4) - Jahudo
Nachomamma8 (2) - Rhinox
Battosuai (2) - kmd4390
fishythefish (1) - Charlie
holycon (1) - Battosuai

Not Voting (9) - Amished, fishythefish, Plum, Chronopie, holycon, Nachomamma8

What changed:

Ythan starts a wagon on plum, and esurio and locke switch votes to plum. Jahudo starts a wagon on chrono.

What it means:

I'd like to go back and check the timing to be sure, but I won't risk losing the web page load just yet. I think Jahudo voted chrono AFTER the wagon on Plum started, but I don't know when esurios and Lockes votes switched in the process. This VC really doesn't say too much except setting up whats coming in the next few VC's


Next:

Vote Count

Plum (6) - Ythan, esuriospiritus, Locke Lamora
Chronopie (4) - Jahudo
Fishythefish (4) - Charlie, kmd4390, Plum
Nachomamma8 (2) - Rhinox
kmd4390 (1) - Battosuai

Not Voting (6) - Amished, Fishythefish, Chronopie, holycon, Nachomamma8

What changed:

There are now 3 top wagons. KMD switches to fishy, and plum votes fishy.

What this means:

The fishy wagon is 3 town players voting for a town player. Other than that, not much.


Next:

Vote Count

Plum (5) - Ythan, esuriospiritus
Chronopie (5) - Jahudo, Locke Lamora
Fishythefish (4) - Charlie, kmd4390, Plum
Nachomamma8 (2) - Rhinox
kmd4390 (1) - Battosuai

Not Voting (6) - Amished, Fishythefish, Chronopie, holycon, nachomamma8

What changed:

Locke abandons the Plum wagon for the chrono wagon.

What this means:

Super town points to Lock for switching from a town wagon that was leading to a scum wagon with only 1 other voter pushing it
.

Next:

Vote Count

Plum (7) - Ythan, esuriospiritus, kunkstar7, fishythefish
Chronopie (5) - Jahudo, Locke Lamora
Fishythefish (4) - Charlie, kmd4390, Plum
nachomamma8 (2) - Rhinox
kmd4390 (2) - Battosuai, Nachomamma8

Not Voting (3) - Chronopie, holycon

What Changed:

Again, it would be nice to be able to go back and see the timing. In some order: kunk replaced in and jumped on the plum wagon. Fishy also jumps on plum. Nacho votes KMD.

What this means:

kunks motivations for voting plum are now obvious. Nacho's vote requires looking at the timing, but could be viewed as avoiding the leading 2 wagons because he didn't want to bus chrono just yet, but didn't want to be another scum on a known mislynch wagon either, with kunk already being at least 1 scum vote there
.

Next:

Vote Count

Plum (8) - Ythan, esuriospiritus, kunkstar7, fishythefish, Battosuai
Chronopie (7) - Jahudo, Locke Lamora, Rhinox
Fishythefish (4) - Charlie, kmd4390, Plum
kmd4390 (1) - nachomamma8

Not Voting (3) - Chronopie, holycon

What changed:

I switch my vote to chrono. Batt jumps ship and votes plum. Everything else remains the same.

What this means:

I need to check timing here too. Batts vote looks like it could be another vote to keep plum the leading wagon over chrono
.

Next:

End of Day Vote Count

Chronopie (12) – Jahudo, Locke Lamora, Rhinox, Nachomamma8, kmd4390, holycon, Fishythefish
Plum (7) – Ythan, esurispiritus, kunkstar7, Battosuai
Fishythefish (2) – Charlie, Plum

Not Voting (2) – Chronopie

What changed:

all hell breaks loose. Nacho switches from KMD to chrono. kmd switches from fishy to chrono. holy jumps on the chrono wagon. fishy jumps from the plum wagon to the chrono wagon for the hammer.

What this means:

Timing is as important than ever. Nacho chose to vote chrono when plum was the leading wagon. It would have to be an intentional choice to bus there, or it could have been a necessity if there were already more than 1 scum on the plum wagon (kunk-esurio or kunk-batt). After KMD's vote, chrono's wagon was picking up speed, then holy voted when the wagons were 10-7 (chrono-plum). Holy chose to vote chrono to L-1 rather than plum, but I think if maybe the chrono lynch had a feeling of inevitibility at that point, it would be a good time to bus, but maybe scum-holy could have voted plum to save chrono at that point. Tough to say, need context and timing
.

Final thoughts:

Locke is even less likely to be scum after looking at the VCs. Esurio remained planted on the plum wagon and don't remember but I don't think he had much to say about the chrono lynch. I could see him as scum here. Nacho or holy could both make sense as bussing scum. Nacho started out avoiding the 2 wagons (plum/chrono) makes sense since there was already scum in kunk on the wagon. Then, if esurio or batt is also scum, it would make sense to not also jump on the plum wagon to avoid having too many scum on the same wagon. I'm not sure if scum-nacho would just keep his vote on kmd and coast through the end of the day, or bus, but I can't rule bussing out as a bad scum strategy. Holy's vote may have only went onto chrono after the lynch felt inevitible, so it could be a very good time to bus for town points. Batt supported the plum lynch over the chrono lynch when it could still swing either way. Seems very much like scum voting motivations to me. I was able to check, and batts vote did come after I voted chrono, so that looks pretty scummy.

Did some jomping around Batt's iso. First, he lists a likely scum team that includes kmd, plum, chrono, holy, and charlie. He voted kmd, before switching to plum. His justification was that a plum scum flip would make more people see how scum kmd was. The next day, Batt has a scum list that now includes KMD, plum, holy, nacho/charlie. Makes me hmmmm at the inclusion of nacho as a slash off. I didn't see any real suspicions of nacho from the end of the day until he listed nacho on his scum list. A little while later another list: this time, its kmd, holy, charlie, ythan, rhinox, kunk, with nacho listed as middle with Locke. And then we get to today, and Batt goes to use a VC analysis originally presented by KMD to conclude that I am most likely scum, followed by Nacho, locke, and then holy, and no mention of esurio, and completely disregarding his previous reads.

I think I can get behind the idea of batt as most likely scum, based on the chrono lynch VC analysis, and the brief scan of the iso. The question is, there are enough links to the other players where its hard to guess at a partner/partners. Holy was consistently listed as one of batts top scum suspects until today, where she's 4th on his list. Holy also fits as bussing chrono. Nacho shows up on Batts list in the "distancing" position. There is also the discussion of nacho regarding the chrono lynch to consider. Batt routinely makes no mention of esurio, and esurio was one of the first plum voters during the chrono lynch and remained there.

I think my choices are:

Batt/holy
Batt/nacho
Batt/esurio

in that order. In any case, most likely scum today is Batt.

Votes: Batt
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Post Post #2946 (isolation #136) » Mon Dec 20, 2010 3:44 am

Post by Rhinox »

Wow 3/4's chance of voting scum and I vote the townie...

but that pails in comparison to me getting lynched there. WTF seriously.... That came out of no where while I was away for the weekend Locke you didn't even give me a chance to answer your questions or respond or anything. Fuuuuuuuuck, my longest game on site ends with a speed lynch on me while I'm away....

The longer the game went on, the more I kept doubting my reads. I thought about rolling a dice the last day between all the remaining players except locke. I should have stuck to my guns regarding holy. I knew there'd be at least 1 scum bussing chrono, but I don't know if I would have realized that both nacho and holy were scum. I'd have probably never got esurio. Man I really had a feeling Batt was town all game but doubting my reads the last day and looking at the wagon analysis the day of chrono's lynch and all the crazy paranoia from him throughout the game.....

BAAAAAH!

:P

I think Nacho gets scum MVP in my opinion because he was active and really turned it on late in the game the last couple of days. He seemed to be genuinely scum hunting and asking good questions at the end. Esurio, holy, kunk, chrono... I mean, congrats on getting the win and all, but it was more lurking to victory. Esurio impressed me with his first couple posts after replacing in, then nothing. All the biggest lurkers in this game were scum. Were there even ANY town lurkers this game? I can't remember any... You can bet that thanks to this game, I'll be a lot harder on lurkers from now on.
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Post Post #2948 (isolation #137) » Mon Dec 20, 2010 4:37 am

Post by Rhinox »

Locke wrote:and that combined with the fact that you hadn't posted all weekend
you've seen my sig, right? I've been limited access on weekends pretty much all game :P

Its alright though, we were pretty much screwed anyways. we'd have had to lynch holy. Then you'd have been killed and had to give your votes to me or batt. Then we'd have had to lynch scum again (nacho or esurio), and then whichever of me or batt were nked would have had to give the votes to the other. I was a pretty close to giving my votes to batt before I went back and looked at the chrono lynch. But it'd have been pretty tough to pull a victory out even if my lynch didn't happen there.

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