Last Will Mafia II (Over)

[Magua]

Ok, so I did a quick read and jotted down some notes.

Between the two competing wagons at the moment -- CSL and Raider -- I find CSL the scummier of the two, almost entirely due to Pittbunny and CSL both jumping on the raider wagon in #524 and #534, and then the Xite91/CSL interaction on page 23. I just really can't get by CSL voting raider because of his lack of scumhunting while at the same time admitting to his own lack of scumhunting. The cognitive dissonance there is glaring.

However, I'd like to see a Shattered Viewpoint lynch more than a CSL lynch. A refusal to give reason for his votes and act like we're still in RVS when it's obvious we're not. General useless posts that are almost completely content free, almost the definition of active lurking. #481 rubs me the wrong way, and seems like scum who's oppurtunistic for some reason to attack. When this doesn't work, instead of acknowledging it, just lays low and lurks.

In short, much better wagon.

VOTE: Shattered Viewpoint

So far:

Town
-----
raider8169
rhinox
millar13

Scum
-----
Shattered Viewpoint
CSL

Everyone else, I don't feel strongly one way or the other about yet.

[Magua]

It might be; when you compare several wagons, quotes, case points, etc. Picking one wagon and making a safe statement is not Wagon Analysis.

You agree that there are scum on the raider wagon.

You are on the raider wagon, so I am going to surmise that you think that raider is scum. (Feel free to disagree on this point.)

So whom else on the wagon do you believe is bussing?

[Magua]

I really don't like Xite's response to holycon's #655:

Holy, why did you say that?
I don't recall a request for you to do so, why did you feel the need to point out "oh hey hey I has case on him!!!!1!!"
Looking for townie points much?
If there was a request, please point it out to me and I will apologize greatly

I read this entire exchange as:
Xite91: OMG Richard is mafia!
holycon: I agree that Richard is mafia, and have been saying this for awhile.
Xite91: OMG that's so scummy!

There's just a disconnect there, but I can't see quite put my finger on what it is. The first thing that popped into my head was that Xite was bussing Richard, but after rereading, I don't think that's it -- I really don't think Xite and Richard are partners. But then I'm at a loss as to why Xite would jump on holy for supporting the Richard wagon.

I'm not getting the warm fuzzies from Richard's posts. Wouldn't mind seeing him lynched, but still think that a Shattered lynch is better. I'm actually leaning against a CSL lynch at this point, because reviewing it, it seems the most bandwagon-y of all the wagons. Really don't like this post from Diacria:

It's strange that CSL wagon is small and stuff.
Usually he's either destroyed by town.
Bussed to death by his team.
Or a combination of both.

Reads like he's just going after an easy target.

@Chronopie:

You need to vote.

@Shattered Viewpoint:

I really want you lynched. Any defense?

[Magua]

@Shattered Viewpoint:

I really want you lynched. Any defense?

Sweet. But I can only defend an actual, you know, CASE.

Try making one, and I'll work on defending it.

I made my case in post #593.

Ythan, I am not the best lynch today.

Going by your vote, you think that SSBF is the best lynch today...yet, your vote on him seems to be entirely RVS, and is well over a week old to boot.
So I'll bite: Who is the best lynch today? Why are you not trying to get them lynched?

[Magua]

Scum
----
Charlie - #784. Pushing for a policy lynch D1 is fine. Pushing for one D2 when there are better suspects is not fine, and the lack of surrounding content, makes Charlie my #1 pick for scum today.

CSL - #793. Especially given that it's CSL, the idea of CSL being pro-policy lynch is quite ironic. Diacria was also voting CSL, and got shot in preference to an inventor.

RichardGHP - #777 is just like a huge sign that says "Lynch me!" It's even had neon lights and whatnot added onto it in case you otherwise would've missed it. #794 doesn't bother to try to give any other reasoning.

Town
----
SSBF - In a sea of uncaring, I find SSBF to be a refreshing change of pace, and I agree with 98% of what he's said so far. The only parts that I don't like are the push on millar13 as a policy lynch, and Xite-as-scum.

Twomz - Solid reads, good thought. Not sure about the inventor claim being legit, especially so early, but Ythan's confirmation is pretty persuasive.

Xite - This isn't as cut-and-dried as Twomz and SSBF, but Xite seems to be avoiding going for easy targets (unlike, eg, Charlie + CSL), and is backing up his points well.

Neutral
-------
millar13 - Should be vigged. I believe the BP claim at this point -- it's an odd claim for a mafia to make with the strong likelihood that there is a vigilante around. I strongly disagree that millar13 should be lynched as part of a "policy lynch". Being lynched for acting scummy is one thing; policy lynching gives us pretty much no information one way or the other.

Ythan - On the fence. The whole Animorph/Ythan exchange rings oddly for me. There's a lot of small posts with a little content in them on pgs 30-31, but then on pg 32 when things start happening they get very empty, with very cagey responses to things like Richard's OMGUS post.

Useless
-------
Chronopie
EGL
Locke Lamora

BTW, in this:

2) So, you'll risk town's biggest asset for a policy lynch?

Xite is calling "the day" town's biggest asset, not millar13. To which he's right. Lynching a BP claim is risky, going for a BP lynch for policy reasons is stupid.

[Magua]

Oh, I forgot: VOTE: Charlie

[Magua]

Why are there so many town lists going around, anyways? People, stop it.

Why?

[Magua]

Mmmm. Drama.

RichardGHP: I'm not seeing what's setting you off. You act scummy. Several people call you on being scummy. You say it was a gambit. Several people continue to call you being scummy. You agree that the gambit gives no evidence of alignment. Several people continue to call you scummy. You ask to be replaced. Do I have that right?

That's pretty poor play, regardless of which side you're on. Still, I am inclined to believe that while scum might act so scummy as some sort of bizarre WIFOM, they wouldn't ragequit in response to it. Disinclined to lynch Richard today.

EGL: My initial response upon reading EGL's posts on pg 33 is "useless but townie." I have nothing to back this up with besides gut, and the fact that I think Charlie is scum, and Charlie is pushing on EGL.

Locke: Says he's reading and catching up on pg 34. Have seen two posts since then, with very little in the way of analysis. Would like a scum list.

Xite/Rhino: My god, it's annoying to read your replies to eachother. Long posts are fine, but please, for all that is good in this world, put your answers next to the respective questions. Reading these responses to eachother gives me a headache. Regardless of anything else, highly doubt Xite/Rhino are scumbuddies together. Could be 0/1 scum in there, but not 2.

Charlie: Overall, Charlie's responses to the cases against him have been....lacking. Charlie's cases against others have been likewise lacking (see post #834), and when asked to explain or elaborate on why he feels a way, the question is dodged. I remain very pro-Charlie-lynch.

Kmd: A series of one-line posts positing townreads and scumreads isn't useful at all, and I'd like some elaboration.

Chronopie: I started in on this because of Amished's repeated postings that Chronopie was scum. I've come to agree. Not enough to take my vote off of Charlie, but several good cases against Chronopie have been made. Addendum edit: Chronopie also blatantly fishes in #878.

My views haven't really changed:
Charlie should be lynched.
Millar should not be lynched, but should be vigged.
RichardGHP should not be lynched (at least, not today).
I would not be terribly upset at a CSL or Chronopie lynch, but I'm more confident in a Charlie lynch.

[Magua]

Ok. CPR doctor. Fine. But you didn't try to vig someone last night? Seriously?

Here's what we do.

We don't lynch Richard today.
We do not let Richard pick the kill. That way lies madness. Instead, tonight, Richard "saves" millar13. I've seen no one who's

against

millar13 being vigged, and a lot of people (including myself) who are for it.

Tomorrow, if millar13 is dead, we pick another target for Richard to save. We use him exactly as a town-directed vigilante. As long as the specified target dies each night, we're good.
Tomorrow, if millar13 is not dead, then I'm more amenable to lynching Richard. Worst case, that means that scum had to waste a kill on the vig target/roleblock Richard which they wouldn't have to do if he was lynched today.

@Magua: Is your gut read on EGL strong enough where you would defend him if he was at L-2 right now? Also, what makes you say that Charlie is pushing EGL right now? He isn't voting him, he hasn't provided anything new about him...

It's an off-the-cuff gut read. It would depend why he was at L-2 and what the case against him was. As is, only you have voted for EGL, so its pretty much a hypothetical. If both he and Charlie were at L-1, I would hammer Charlie, certainly.

I said Charlie pushed on EGL because of his response to your posted case (#824). I see he's made more references to it in the last few days (#1027). I think what really irks me about #824 is the continuation of Charlie saying things without even an attempt at backing it up (Kmd is doing this a lot too, and it's getting on my nerves, but every once inawhile Kmd at least tries to explain things).

I'm glad that Charlie posted #1027. Sad to see I wasn't even mentioned in it. Still have the Charlie-is-scum read. Complete disagreement with Kmd on this one.

Animorph has fallen into scumland with #983 (paraphrased: "I don't believe Richard, lynch him"). A complete and utter disbelief of the claim is fine, but this one seems inexplicably not-thought-out.

[Magua]

Magua, I believe you're attempting to read me through a mix of playstyle analysis and content analysis. No trouble with content analysis, but the playstyle reads are unreliable. You say I don't back up my cases. Is that a good indicator to tell someone's alignment? Town can follow who they believe to be town as well. (If you want a reference, go check L4D Mafia.)

Part of it is playstyle analysis, yes. My playstyle reads in particular may be unreliable, as I don't know you all as well as you all seem to know eachother. But one-liners, making blanket statements without any support, etc, etc, are antitown actions. Are they indicative of alignment? Not reliably, of course, but town (ideally) are motivated to not take antitown actions.

If you make a case without backing it up, how have you helped town?
Do you feel motivated to help town?

My feelings on you are pretty much the same as my feelings on millar; if it weren't for his BP claim, I'd be all about lynching him as well. But, there is the BP claim, which is why I am all for him getting vigged.

I'll mention here and now that KMD closely resembles someone from that previously completed game, I'm going along the idea that this is what is happening now. He ended up being town and based on this I'm comfortable labelling KMD town as well. If the method works, use it again.

He acted that way in one game and was town, so he must be town in this game?

No, wait. Are you saying he's acting like *someone else* who was town in that game, and so he must be town in this game?

This reads like straight up buddying.

IIRC, you posted a case against me out of the blue and now you followed it up. Not much to say about that specifically. I do however disagree with you on choosing the "kill" for Richard. Too much WIFOM. We let him decide on it, we insist he claim his action. By saying "oh you must protect millar13 tonight" we open up a can of worms like: oh, mafia will know this therefore they try to kill millar13 and he does not die but wait maybe that is what they want me to think or maybe that is what they want me to think so..."

I thought about this. I don't think it's a good idea.

Possibility #1: Richard is scum. Scum have a lot of latitude in picking the kill and still making it useful. Richard can wait and see what happened during the night before making a claim about who he "saved," which allows even more leeway if there are multiple NKs.

Possibility #2: Richard is town. Scum can let his "save" go through, or they have to trade either their night-kill to stop it (roleblock is different: see below). If it goes through, great. If they trade their nightkill to block it, that's also great. I will happily take that trade because it's like a free lynch.

I ignore roleblocking in possibility #2: this is because if scum are going to roleblock Richard, it doesn't matter who he targets, or whether this is announced beforehand or not. If you approve of Richard being left alive to vig (and you do), then roleblocking is a non-argument for using a pre-selected target.

tl;dr: Pre-selection has pros (more accountability, less leeway if Richard is scum). The only valid con is that scum could nightkill the target themselves...but I'm ok with that, because then they're not nightkilling someone useful.

Magua, the directed vig kill plan sucks. Let's say ONLY millar dies. Does that mean we line up the mislynch for tomorrow? Let's say no one dies. How do we know mafia didn't just decide to no-kill?

Let's say millar gets to self-select his kill. Does the answer to *any* of your questions change? No. The answers are exactly the same.

So, to both of you: What are you afraid will happen if its decided he'll vig millar tonight? How is it different than if he self-selects the kill?

[Magua]

These claims make my head hurt.

The claimed D1 inventor doesn't die. Fine. Protective roles and all that.

The claimed lynch-only BP didn't get vigged. Fine. Maybe there's no vig.

The claimed CPR doc didn't attempt to vig anyone. Wait, what? But. Um. Sure, fine, its a dangerous claim to fake, and is somewhat testable.

The claimed tracker tracks the person who by all rights should've been vigged. Bwah?

I simpy don't like EGL's claim on the face of it. Don't like the delivery -- very detached -- and I don't like how he's not doing anything to try to keep himself alive. Still isn't even voting. Just rings false.

UNVOTE: Charlie
VOTE: EGL

As for Richard:

@Richard

: You'll "doc" millar13 tonight.

And my thoughts on the outcomes, pending other information?
millar13 dies tonight? Great. Don't lynch Richard tomorrow.
No one dies tonight? Great. Don't lynch Richard tomorrow.
Richard dies tonight? Great. Means scum killed him instead of us mislynching him.
Someone else dies tonight? Lynch Richard tomorrow. At worst, his claim is true and scum had to roleblock him instead of someone else.

[Magua]

Then you'd best hope there's some exculpatory evidence that appears tomorrow or I'll lynch you.

[Magua]

Millar died. Lied about his BP claim. Not entirely surprised. Surprised that he flipped town, though.

Anyways, this is good. I believe Richard's claim. I find Xite's and SSBF's responses to be kind of off. Especially SSBF's "Why'd you target millar" given the repetition of "millar must die" that was D2.

My scum list is mostly centered on the people who were votin Richard at the end of D2 (as well as Charlie, mustn't forget Charlie): animorpherv1, CSL, Amished, Xite91, Super Smash Bros. Fan (hooray copy and paste). I continue to see no reason why you'd vote to lynch a claimed vig when we're still so early in the game. I'll start with the person who seemed to put the least amount of thought into their Richard vote, and then avoided every question afterwards:

VOTE: Animorpherv1

Town list: Richard's town. Losing my town-read on SSBF, so he's off the list, but not lynchworthy (yet). Increasingly, I'm feeling like I don't have a town read on anyone, which is discomforting.

[Magua]

I don't want the day to end until the replacements have caught up and made some statements, so I'm not voting yet, but I don't see Richard getting roleblocked. Killed yes, roleblocked no. I thought the situation was good before Ythan claimed, but between the possibility of Richard lying, Ythan lying, or one of the two actually being roleblocked, I think Richard is guiltier by far.

Also, Richard, if you think that Ythan is telling the truth (that both of you tried to kill millar, and one of you was roleblocked) why are you voting him?