Square Enix III: (Game over)

[Kdub]

/confirm

Vote: BlazezRb

[Kdub]

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Nero Cain

I'll check in when I feel like it

[Kdub]

I am voting gandalf because his sole post is saying he cant be accused of being scum because he hasnt posted.
That is quite scummy.

Nice twisting of what he actually said:

I'd wonder how you could have figured me out when I've only made one post. >.<

UNVOTE:
VOTE: dramonic

[Kdub]

If gandalf flips scum, Chrono is his buddy for suggesting that I would be his buddy.

[Kdub]

FATE WE ARE NOT VOTING DRAM K

You were pretty quick to wagon a bunch of other people, but not dram?

FoS: Midnight's Sorrow

The "bad response" bit is right, but how is bv's post a strawman?

[Kdub]

MS:
So why did you vote bv then?

[Kdub]

MS:
What makes you think I isoed you? This game isn't that long yet, it's not hard to keep track of things, especially when they have happened in the past couple pages.

gandalf:
What do you think about dram and bv?

[Kdub]

MS:
I thought you were calling bv's post a strawman, which would have indicated that you didn't read very carefully and were just trying to get on the wagon. Since you cleared that up, consider my FoS removed.

I rather lynch quadz for his last post but it requires him being scum together with Dram anyway sooooooooo.

Huh? Explain please.

[Kdub]

THIS IS WHERE I'M GOING WITH THAT STATEMENT >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> QUADZ LYNCH.

THE REST COMES LATER.

Not seeing what you are getting at here. How did you come to the conclusion that quadz+dram are scum together? Give me a convincing reason and I'll switch to quadz.

[Kdub]

Nautilius:
I'm not going to get bullied onto a wagon just because you and Fate want me to. I asked for a good reason, I didn't get one.

dram:
If you are pushing gandalf for not doing anything, what is your opinion of Chrono/JP/inHim?

Traveling for the next day or so, will post again either tomorrow evening or Monday.

[Kdub]

Sorry for my sudden absence last week. I thought I would have internet access but didn't. Thanks for letting me stay in the game Kise. I'll catch up within a day or so.

[Kdub]

My thoughts on the JP quicklynch:

If it was an intrinsic liability of his, then the setup is probably one scum group (~5 members) plus SK. Having that much of a reduced lynch threshold is a huge liability for a smaller scum team (~3 members) unless they have some serious power to counter that.

If it was an ability that gave him or everyone a reduced lynch threshold for the day (obviously a scum ability, implying a second scum group other than JP's), then I am suspicious of Prana because it looked like a wagon on him was gaining steam when JP was lynched, as well as inHim for being the hammer. vezo was strongly tunnelled on JP based on a single post where he was fence-sitting, but I have to agree with bill that the mass roleblock seems more likely to be a town ability for balance reasons. I speculated in the night QT that opposing scum may have investigated JP the night before and found that he was scum, so they moved to quicklynch him yesterday. Otherwise, it seems strange that they would use such an ability to take out a random player like that unless they had good reason to believe JP was a threat, and I don't see how they could have figured that just from his one bad post.

inHim has been doing nothing but follow the biggest wagons so far. Between inHim and Prana, I prefer a inHim lynch at the moment.

VOTE: inHim

[Kdub]

As far as I can tell, there is no case of any kind on BV, but there's 5 votes on him. He's at L-2.

This.

vezo's reasoning sucks, but to be fair, it's consistent with what I've seen of his town play.

[Kdub]

I am willing to believe Chrono at the moment. If he is scum, he put a big target on his back for a SK/second scum team, and there's a chance he would have been forced to reveal his partner anyway. The masonry with a cop does seem very powerful, but with the mass roleblock every other night, it could be limited.

The main reason for suspicion on inHim is based on him hopping on the biggest wagons, then when he finally posts, guess what he does?

Anyone else think it's likely bill is the executioner? Read it again.

Not really seeing it. People were speculating similar things in my neighborhood. I don't think such speculation is scummy. The last 3 votes on bill (MS, inHim, vezo) look weak, as does quadz's latest post. The bill wagon took off way too easily, just like the earlier bv wagon. In fact, since vezo is in my neighborhood, I'm wondering why he believes that bill has some hidden info about JP's lynch based on his speculation, yet he doesn't say anything about me/Glork/Prana/MS when we were discussing similar things.

[Kdub]

I have no idea what you are saying there Kdub.
Even if you feel the rest of the votes are weak I still think it's a good wagon. Do we have a better lynch target?
Like I said I don't want to lynch Inhim. I prefer to vote someone who made more posts instead of going for the lurker.

I am saying that you are attacking bill for doing something that several of us were doing in the neighbor QT, yet you didn't say anything about us. Why is that?

I don't understand why inHim's lurking should be a reason to not want to lynch him, because that's hardly the only reason I think he's suspicious. Do you not agree that he has often conveniently joined the largest wagon for questionable reasoning?

[Kdub]

Balls to it, Bill is still possibly scum, but I agree, we need to get rid of the lurker scums.

unvote; vote: InHim

Nice to know you suddenly want to lynch lurkers in the same post that you hammer one without asking for a claim first. I also haven't forgotten that the JP quicklynch took off right around when you were starting to get some votes. If inHim flips scum on a different team than JP, you are probably inHim's partner.

What two, Fate?

Kdub and Bv.

I thought they had lurked all today.

This game GAWD

Huh? I posted less than 24 hours ago, it's not my fault you and Reck are flooding the thread with your constant flip-flopping. Why are you following Reck so much in this game when he barely gives any explanation?

bill is probably town.

quadz's latest posts are looking worse and worse to me. Fence-sitting on bill/Chrono and claiming to want to look into various players, but not actually looking into them.

Fate is probably right.
Stop voting for the lurker who hammerred a scum.
Vote bill or glork.

Wait, weren't you saying earlier that you were agreeing with Glork about Prana? Why is Glork suddenly one of your lynch candidates?

---

Vote Count:

inHimshallibe: 7

(KDub, bv310, Midnight's Sorrow, Fate, vezokpiraka, xRECKONERx, PranaDevil)

bill1148: 2

(Zazier, inHimshallibe)

Midnight's Sorrow: 1

(bill1148)

quadz08: 1

(Chronopie)

Not Voting:

Glork
quadz08

Lynch:

7 votes.

Deadline:

August 11th - 3:00 AM EST

[Kdub]

I semi-take back what I said about Prana late yesterday. Since inHim turned out to be an executioner, it wasn't a general ability that killed JP, so inHim wasn't trying to divert from a Prana wagon. Also, I had mixed up Prana and vezo on the JP wagon. Prana is not cleared, but I'm less suspicious of him than I was before last night.

I'm liking a quadz wagon at the moment. His play toward the end of yesterday did not look so good. He was fence-sitting on bill and indicated vague suspicion of others without really doing much.
VOTE: quadz

[Kdub]

3:3:12 seems most likely. 2:2:14 would require a ton of scum power to balance, and 4:4:10 would require a lot of town power, which doesn't seem likely with the number of VT flips so far. I guess 3:4:11 or 2:3:13 are plausible as well.

Also, if we assume vezo is telling the truth, he should be mass roleblocking tonight and as often as possible so that we essentially get two lynches every other effective day phase. Any docs should be protecting him on nights when he can't block.

[Kdub]

There is probably another mason out there, given Chrono's allusions to his "mason buddies" (e.g. 569). A 3-person mason group with a cop is powerful, but given vezo's roleblocking every other night and the possible lack of further town PRs, I think it's plausible. If there is a mason cop out there with some results on people, should we ask them to claim now? It prevents scum from counterclaiming in lylo, and if we can clear 2-3 people and we have effectively two lynches today, we would be in pretty good shape. Thoughts?

I still think bill is probably town. I didn't like the wagon that got built on him yesterday, and I still haven't seen anyone give a compelling reason why he is suspicious. Glork's play looks town as well. I don't really like vezo's posts, but I admit he's probably town because of his ability, and if he's lying, we will find out if we don't get a mass roleblock every other night.

Assuming 2:2:6 (most likely), I think there are 4 scum among quadz, Reck, Zazie, MS, bv, and Prana. Zazie and bv haven't posted enough for me to say much about them. I have no idea what Reck or MS's deal is this game. If either of them are scum, they are most likely on JP's team due to the timing of their entry on the inHim wagon. I didn't like Prana's quickhammer yesterday or the fact that he was on the bill wagon, but he's less suspicious than quadz at the moment.

[Kdub]

Kdub, how about not just calling half the fucking playerlist potential scum and providing some evidence/cases?

K THANKS

What's wrong with calling half the playerlist potential scum when the most likely scenario (2:2:6) means that 4/10 of the remaining players are scum?

bill:
I suggested the same, but I think they should only claim if they have at least one confirmed result among the players still alive.

[Kdub]

Before I claim, I want everyone to look at my iso. Look through it. Find scummy behavior. Make sure you're voting for the right guy. I believe that I am a victim of Argument from Repetition. If you read through my iso and disagree, then I'll claim, but I really think that Reck has just been pushing for my lynch for so long, and so often, that you are simply conditioned to think I'm the best lynch. Go through my iso with a clear head, and tell me what you think.

Like I said, I'll claim if it doesn't change your opinion.

I think you should claim. Your iso indicates that you haven't shown any serious suspicion of anyone since the start of D3 and you were waffling on bill/Chrono, as has been pointed out already. Unless you have some new revelation to share, it looks like you are clearly the most suspicious player at the moment.

The doc should still protect me because things may happen the may stop my ability.

We should let any docs decide for themselves. Since you have claimed your ability, it's already clear how beneficial protecting you would be, so no amount of persuasion from you should change anything. I think it's best if you drop this line of discussion for now.

[Kdub]

^What he said.

And I investigated Devo N1, and discovered she had no abilities (obviously). Last night, I investigated Reck. He also has no abilities.

A role cop is supposed to get a player's role (e.g. "Vanilla Townie", "Goon"). An ability cop is very different. I think it's odd that you specifically claimed role cop, but when asked for your results, you made reference to "abilities". If you investigated someone and found that they were a VT, wouldn't you naturally say, "I investigated Devo and she is a VT"? That, plus the fact that I have also generally seen more role/ability cops as scum than town makes me skeptical of the claim.

[Kdub]

I'm here. Glork beat me to posting the exchange. I maintain that I think the case on bill is weak, but obviously Prana's flip changes things. I will reread Prana and bill with his flip in mind and and post again later today.

Also, given what went on in the neighborhood QT at night, vezo is clearly the lynch today.

[Kdub]

Looking through the posts of the 3 masons, I think Prana investigated Reck N1 and found that he was town. Prana was suspicious of Reck for defending dram on D1, but then doesn't pursue him on following days. Also, Chrono put Reck on his town list on D3 (556), even though he had said very little about Reck up to that point in the game. Reck is likely town.

Toward the end of D3, it looked like Prana was suspicious of bill, but if he investigated him and got a scum result, I think he would have just come out and claimed on D4. Maybe Chrono/Fate convinced him to investigate quadz instead? That's the best explanation I can think of.

bill wagon on D3:
bill1148: 6 (Zazier,

Fate

, Midnight's Sorrow,

PranaDevil

,

inHimshallibe

,

vezok

piraka

)

If vezo turns out to be on inHim's team, then bill is probably not on their team. He could plausibly be scum on JP/quadz's team. I still think he's probably town though.

[Kdub]

Reck, even though you are probably town because of the masons' behavior toward you, you have been all over the map this game. Your play alone is not as obvtown as you think it is.

Chrono's comment in 556 about the strongman being town aligned is a pretty clear hint that the N2 kill was from Fate. The kill flavor seems to fit with Umaro as well.

What use is the mass roleblock for scum then? Possibilities:
- They can use abilities other than the factional kill. If he's on JP/quadz's team, then maybe quadz could use his rolecop ability through the block. If he's on inHim's team, they might have some other ability that could have been used and bypassed the block.
- The kill can bypass the roleblock but they happened to hit a bulletproof player. The possibility of a bulletproof scum would make sense with the juggernaut in the game.
- Town has some powerful one-shot or otherwise limited-use roles. We haven't seen any flip yet, so it's unlikely.

[Kdub]

Reck:
We could debate the quality of your play in this game, but I don't think that would be useful. I now believe you are town and I'll leave it at that.

vezo:
You are caught and everyone knows it. There is no chance that you are not today's lynch. But just for the sake of argument, let's say you are town. Then give a full claim and a list of who you think are scum/town. Regardless of your alignment, you will be helping us on future days by providing us with that information.

[Kdub]

Hmmm. Something seems off about all this.

I'm not sure I'll be voting vezo today.

Vote: Bill

Wait, you seriously think he is town? That demands an explanation.

[Kdub]

MS, what do you think of the ideas I suggested in 887 about how a scum mass roleblocker could be useful?

The bigger question on my mind is, why did he even claim non-consecutive mass RB in the first place? He knew that he would be exposed after N4. Why not just claim one-shot mass roleblocker? The one possible scum motivation I can see is that he is drawing doc protection to himself on N3 (and therefore, away from everyone else), but is that worth getting lynched over? Maybe there is some mechanic we are not thinking of. Any ideas?

[Kdub]

Am I going crazy or something? Do people actually believe vezo "forgot" to send in his ability?

Also, I know bv has posted in another game we are in. It would be nice to hear his opinions on people sometime today.

[Kdub]

vezo, I'll give you one last chance here. It's obvious you did not "forget" to send in the roleblock last night given what went on in the neighbor quicktopic. That wouldn't even be stupid play, it would be a complete mental breakdown on such a basic level that would be indicative of much more serious problems than just messing up in a mafia game. So come clean and tell the truth. If you really are town, tell us what you really are, and why you lied. I can think of a few crazy scenarios where you might think (usually incorrectly) that faking a mass roleblocker claim like you did could help the town. That doesn't mean you aren't going to be lynched, but if you can make a convincing argument and tell us who you suspect, you at least stand more of a chance of getting out of this, and give us information that can help us on future days.

[Kdub]

I forgot to send in the roleblock.
Why are you still questioning me about it. I don't have another role. I don't have anything else to say to you. Can't you understand?

In that case, I don't have anything else to say about you. I'm ready for a vezo lynch as soon as Zazie/replacement posts and gives opinions on people.

bv, what are your takes on players other than vezo and MS? You've been absent the last two game days, so you should give more reads than just those two. What is your opinion of the case on bill?

[Kdub]

I can

almost

see merit in not lynching vezo today. We know his ability and we know he's used it already. If he submits his faction's kill, he could be blocked by a town roleblocker or by the other scum team. He is still a guaranteed lynch tomorrow regardless of whether we hit scum today. However, there are risks. If vezo is on JP/quadz's team and we leave him alive, we keep two nightkills in play tonight (we can't necessarily count on roleblockers, although to be fair, vezo could hit the other scum). Seeing which team vezo flips also will better inform town PRs with their night actions. I think we should play it safe and lynch vezo. What do other people think?

[Kdub]

I take it we're not waiting for Zazie then.

Vote: vezokpiraka

[Kdub]

Too bad that all this comes down to is a behavioral tell at this point. ANd I don't do those. Sorry. Your trying to put your self in vezoks shoes in what you feel he should have done and whats commonsensical, which I don't disagree with the sentiment at all.

How do you ever catch scum on D1 without behavioral tells? It's not like vezo had to pause to think about how to use his ability or who to use it on or anything. He just had to PM the mod and say "use it" with no thought whatsoever. It's something that should be automatic.

[Kdub]

So MS replaced back in for Zazie? I have a lot of "outguess the mod" speculation running through my head at the moment, but I think we should massclaim first before I share. I vote for MS to start off and then popcorn it from there.

[Kdub]

I am Sigmund, VT. Apparently he's from Infinite Undiscovery, which I am not familiar with.



I'll post thoughts tonight or tomorrow.

[Kdub]

Mod: If Zazie/MS2.0 hypothetically performed an action last night, which one of them would have submitted it?

Depending on if Kise can answer that or not, we can speculate about the kill flavors. The fact that one scum group has been using the "spontaneously combusted" kill flavor the entire game makes be think that the role who is performing the kill for that group is a less powerful one than the other two from that faction.

As far as reads go, Glork is likely town since he has pushed cases on scum from both groups and his actions look to me like he is making an honest effort to help the town. I thought bill was town because the D3 case on him was bad, but looking back at that wagon, it's pushed primarily by town and Mito scum. bill is probably not Mito scum because if he was, both of his buddies jumped on him to put him at L-1. I don't think they would have bussed to that extent. There is still the possibility that he is Geo scum though. I don't think he should be lynched today, because if we lynch someone else and catch the last Geo scum, bill is basically cleared in my eyes. If we don't, I'll have to reread him.

I feel like bv has been lurking even more than usual in this game. Of particular note is post 799, where he pops in after the lynch and says, "So I missed another day phase". This takes place less than 30 minutes after the lynch, even though the day had lasted more than two RL days and he never posted.

Actually, I changed my mind. BlazesRB/Zazie/Midnight2.0 is definitely, 100% scum:

/confirm

loving my role

Now brand new, Vanilla Townie will post this on role confirmation. Ever.

This is actually an interesting catch, and far from the "most stupid reason to vote someone". Kou Leifoh isn't even the main character of The Bouncer, which, in addition to being a relatively obscure game (even among SE fans), is widely regarded as a bad-to-mediocre game. It's hard to believe any random SE fan would get excited about receiving this role, especially since it's supposedly a VT role. I'm probably as big a SE fan as there is in this game, and I'd be disappointed if I got that role (not that my role is any better, but whatever).

[Kdub]

MS: Can you give us your suspect list at the moment?

I still think it's pretty strange for someone to be excited about receiving a Kou Leifoh VT role, but I admit that the fact that it was BlazezRb, who I have seen fakeclaim a power role as a VT before, makes me a bit hesitant about drawing a firm conclusion there.

It should be noted that quadz and vezo both claimed their true character names because their characters were protagonists in their respective games, so not all scum might have safeclaims. If that is the case, then we can look at who makes sense for the various kill flavors. "Slashed repeatedly" could plausibly be either me, Glork, or bill's characters. "Spontaneously combusted" points to bv's character, who is apparently a blacksmith and uses guns. This line of thinking actually indicates MS is not scum, although he could potentially be a Mito scum "leader" (similar to JP) with a safeclaim since it's tough to imagine that JP could have just claimed his actual character without drawing suspicion.

VOTE: bv
Reading his iso again, he's just lurking way more than he normally does. Also, he flip-flops on bill, calling him pro-town in post 875 (day 5), but then saying he's been laying low in 1035 (day 6). So you had 5 game days to get a read on him and that read was town, but then the next day, you call him out for lurking? Also, all of his votes have been either on town or Mito scum, with the exception of his D1 vote on quadz. It should also be noted that he quickly unvotes and votes dram (the next largest wagon), making the wagons equal. He's looking very much like the last Geo scum.

If bv is Geo scum, then I'm almost certain MS is the remaining Mito scum. If bv is Mito scum, then MS is still probably the last Geo scum but I would have to think about it a bit more.

[Kdub]

EBWOP: Bill, not MS >.<

Did you forget who you "firmly believed" was scum?

I prefer a bv lynch. His flip could potentially clear bill if he is Geo, which he is more likely to be than Mito IMO. If you guys want to go with MS, I'm fine with that as well.

[Kdub]

Godfathers are night kill immune period, it has nothing to do with being 'bullet-proof'

In a game with no day kills, what is the difference between "night kill immune period" and bulletproof? I don't see the distinction you are trying to make here. Also, if your speculation is true, don't you think Prana would have gotten suspicious of Glork and said something instead of calling him town in the neighborhood QT?

[Kdub]

As for your first part...what do you consider the Executioner then?

Fair point, I thought of executioner as more of a vote-manipulating role than a day vig role, but the wiki confirms that it doesn't work on bulletproof players. Everything else still stands.

[Kdub]

That sucks.

[Kdub]

On N5, I was considering not self-protecting so that I could use it N6, but I figured I would have a decent chance of either killing the last scum (who I thought was MS 1.0) or getting the last scum lynched (in case it was bv or Zazie) before it came to that. bill had me fooled, and I didn't actually consider him a serious candidate for the last Mito until I realized on D6 that Zazie couldn't be scum.

[Kdub]

-Midnight v2/Zaz, from a player perspective, was far more scummy than Kdub. There were some minor scum-tells that I read (though I won't mention). I will say this though, the big thing was the claim: Sigmund, a sword user. I was well aware that both of the players with abilities on the scum teams weren't given fake-claims. Midnight v2's claim didn't fit with "slashed repeatedly."

This was my biggest fear. I was planning to fakeclaim Guile from Chrono Cross exactly for this reason, but once I realized we were posting images, I PMed Kise telling him to upload a pic, but he didn't get the PM in time and I had to claim my actual character to avoid looking suspicious for not claiming quickly enough.

Also, I started to suspect bill as scum because I knew JP had gotten safeclaims from the Chrono games, and it seemed unlikely that Kise would give the opposing scum leader safeclaims from a much more obscure game.

My fault for not realizing that I would probably have been asked to post my character pic during mass claim. My only recommendation to Kise would be that if you are going to give safeclaims, give everyone on the team a safeclaim, and/or don't allow players to post their character images (equivalent to quoting your role PM IMO).

quadz had investigated Zazie early, so we knew he was Kou Leifoh. I actually didn't realize that the last Mito had to be Eve until D6, when I was looking at the PE wiki page. That made me realize that MS couldn't be scum, so I shifted away from him and onto bv, who was equally likely to be lynched. My reasoning for killing you (bill) was that you were more likely to be scum, and if I didn't hit scum, there was a chance the day could continue and MS could mess things up by voting too quickly and allowing scum to quickhammer. In the event I was wrong, I thought Glork probably would have deserved the scum win more since he would have played me brilliantly in the neighborhood QT. He turned out to be town though, so it's irrelevant.

I'm fine with posting our scum QT if quadz and JP agree.

[Kdub]

I'll assume consent from JP since he hasn't posted.

Geo quicktopic: http://www.quicktopic.com/44/H/DeWmSBkZtfRKF