/Invitational 11: Pick your Poison 5 (Game Over)

[Rhinox]

Vote: Deadline option #1

[(1) Three week deadline on day 1, then two week deadlines thereafter]

I don't like janitor, even though it is only 1-shot. I've been in a couple no-reveal/limited reveal games, and they've all dragged. I think a no reveal early game would seriously hinder the town for the rest of the game.

Assassin isn't all too bad, other than it can potentially give the scum 2 extra nks. It can't be used to end the game, so if it gets close to end game and the role hasn't been used, it becomes worthless. Early game, its not likely to be used because the 2 shots will be wasted if they aren't against PR's. So, as long as its not paired with Role Cop, the biggest threat from assassin comes mid game after a PR is outed. Considering that after a PR is outed they are usually nked or RBed anyways, giving the mafia an extra kill to take them out isn't too horrible.

Role cop isn't horrible, but I wouldn't want it paired with assassin. Or RB really, but not as bad as being paired with assassin. If scum use the role to kill a PR rather than kill a VT who might be a better player/scum hunter, I consider that a win. Assuming scum gave the town roles they felt were least helpful, I doubt they would be particular concerned with killing PR's anyways.

RB, pretty standard role. Like assassin, not too hurtful until a PR is outed, given that it is a limited shot.

I actually like hoopla's recent idea the best - assassin + RB and no PR claims.

[Rhinox]

Vote: assassin

FoS: RB

I want to hear some thoughts about Zor's idea of hider claiming before committing to a RB. I need more time to process what zor suggested, but on the surface doesn't look like a bad plan.

I think you guys are seriously overestimating the power of the assassin role. For one, it can't be used to end the game/give the mafia a majority. And since its only a 2-shot, the only real threat of an assassin kill is after a PR claim, or a less than a coinflip (probably) chance of the assassin guessing when it gets close to endgame, if it even lives that long. Putting an assassin in is not riding off the PR's as unvaluable. We can still get PR information, except we have to expect that once a PR claims, it will be killed. Note that after a PR claims, they're usually killed or RBed anyways, in most games.

We don't have to enforce a strictly no PR claiming rule - if a PR is about to be lynched and they have any information that may help the town, they should claim. What it comes down to is then do we lynch them anyways so the mafia can only make 1 nk, or do we lynch someone else and give the mafia 2nks - note that either way, the mafia benefit from the same 2 deaths - the claimed PR and another choice, whether we choose to lynch someone else or not. Also, if the town was given a JK or WD, we can prevent the assassin kills anyways (unless they are the ones who had to claim), and a hider can avoid an assassin kill all by itself. Unless we have 2 trackers + 2 vigs, we have at least 1 of JK, WD, or hider which weakens the ability of the assassin.

I also have a probably unconventional view that a couple extra deaths aren't necessarily a bad thing, as it reduces the player pool and gives slightly better odds on the next day's lynch. Similar to, a vig who goes to town starting on day 1 might hit a few townies, but thats not necessarily a bad thing. The problem I forsee is that if the extra kills are scum directed instead of vig directed, the extra kills will probably be on more helpful town players rather than scummy looking players/easily mislynchable players. But based on the player list, I don't see that as much of a problem anyways because there aren't any players I would classify as "always suspicious VI type players that are easily lynchable", nor do I see any players that as town they would tend to want to go after the easily lynchable/mislynchable targets.

[Rhinox]

Regarding Daycop: its more dangerous to town PR's than assassin. Its unlimited shot. Its not blockable or trackable. It can lead to PR deaths that are not likely to be protected by a JK or WD - we won't know if the scum find a PR, which is less town info/more scum-proprietary info. Coupled with a RB, we have to assume that PRs found by the daycop will just be nked anyways, rather than RBed - since the RB is 4-shot, it likely will be saved for when it can cause confusion, put doubt on a claim, or block a jk, wd, or hider in order to proceed with a desired kill. Daycop puts our PR's much more at risk than assassin.

Regarding RB vs hiders or WD: Consider the mafia wincon - "You win when the town no longer has the majority, regardless of what roles are still alive." That tells me, even if we have a combination of roles that can not be killed, such as 2 hiders hiding behind each other, or 2 WD protecting each other, the mafia can still win with as little as 2 living players. Still, if there are 5 players left and 2 are claimed and proven hiders or WD somehow (not sure how likely that is), I like the odds of lynching scum at 2/3 better than 2/5 for LyLo. On the other hand, this is reason to believe that it is unlikely scum would not put in 2 WD or 2 hiders, unless they anticipated being given the RB role. Since this boils down to WIFOM, I think I would be ok with giving the mafia the RB role (paired with assassin), and not worry about trying to semi-break the setup with roles we may not have.


Were I scum choosing roles, I would have started with 2 trackers - not very powerful roles. I wouldn't give a WD or hider at all, actually - more powerful at confirming innocents rather than protecting others or yourself. That leaves the remaining 2 roles at some combination of JK and vigs. 2 vigs can potentially destroy the town without much help from the mafia, or completely obliviate the mafia. Given the player list, I would assume vigs would play well and would be more hesitant to put them in. JK's can prevent kills or block scum PRs, but they can also block town PRs. If there is a nk, a JK doesn't know if who he targets is scum or the nk target. Given the other roles, as scum I think 2 jk's would be least powerful. So, my guess is, 2 trackers + 2 JK. small chance of 1 or 2 vig substitutions instead of JK. Very little chance of WD or hiders being present at all.

[Rhinox]

Regarding a Janitor: I think it is being underestimated how much this will hinder the town. My views are heavily biased by the no-reveal/partial-reveal games I've been a part of in the past. They always made it more difficult for the town, and the games really dragged. I remember 1 time a mod said after the game that he/she would have eliminated the no-reveal aspects if the game were to be run again. I think I remember 1 game that had a janitor role that covered up 1 lynch in the game, and even that was enough to disorient the town. In addition, what Amished said regarding associative tells, including trying to divine any information about those pushing alternate wagons to the unrevealed player who was lynched.

Janitor is thus my 3rd choice I would give to scum. If I had to accept it, I'd choose to pair it with RB rather than assassin. Choosing between just 1 of RB or assassin, I think RB is a less harmful role than assassin.

So I guess if I rated my preferences from best to worst choices for the town to give to mafia, it would be...

RB
Assassin
Janitor
Day Rolecop

Or, paired role rankings:

RB+Assassin
RB+Janitor
Assassin+Janitor
*RB+Daycop
*Janitor+Daycop
Assassin+Daycop

*interchangeable

[Rhinox]

second vote: RB

ok with assassin or jan.

@spyrex: "Even a missed assassin gives the some daycop-esque information (while it can be interfered with). I could easily see using one shot early and saving the other."

only if the assassin is told whether the shot fizzled or was otherwise prevented.

Mod: would an assassin be told whether or not they lost an attempt after a failed attempt?

[Rhinox]

(for example, I might be able to convince myself that the Assassin is less bad than the Rolecop, but if a choice of Assassin is necessarily coupled with the "lynch all power role claims" plan, I won't be voting for it because I think that plan is flawed).

If there's a power role claim that we wouldn't want to lynch such as those you've described, I'd rather suck up an assassin kill and lynch someone we think is scum. Actually, I'm not sure I agree with autolynching even the PR claims we're not quite confident in - better to no lynch and suck up the assassin kill, than lynch the PR, give the scum a nk choice, and the assassin keep all shots. Of course, the other option is still try to lynch scum, with the downside that there may be 3 town deaths if we suck at lynching scum.

Anybody better at running numbers, how many lynches would we lose if there were 1 or 2 extra nks from an assassin. Is it 1 kill means we lose 1 lynch and have a mylo (where we would probably no lynch), and 2 kills means we still only lose 1 lynch and go straight to lylo? How bad is losing 1 lynch really if it means our odds of hitting scum for the rest of the lynches after the kill

technically

improve?

P.S: I PM'd the mod regarding how role allotment to scum will happen - scum will get to choose allotment during the first 24 hours of day 1. "The reason to claim on day 0 is that the scum won't know which of them is the RB, so they can't decide which of them will fakeclaim in advance." so this argument is not true.

Not that I'm saying you're lying or anything, but we've all been asking these types of questions to the mod in thread, and getting responses. I'd feel better if the

mod could please confirm this information about how the scum roles will be assigned in thread.

[Rhinox]

At this point Troll would like to hear exactly what it is that people think the town looses that be so bad with a hider claim. Troll thinks it be most clear what the town can gain (two or zero claims be explicitly great and good in turn, scum can no longer fake the claim later.)

I guess my problem is, outing any hiders makes it less optimal to place a RB, and right now RB is the scum role I'm most comfortable handing out (and everyone else, aparently). If we get 2 hider claims, that pretty much means no RB. If we get no hider claims, the only benefit we get is that there won't be any scum fake hider claims down the road. I'm not sure how helpful that really is. Assuming scum fake claim hider, a unknown tracker or vig can easily test that out. If only 1 hider claims, again, we pretty much can't give the RB role without condemning the hider. essentially, if scum didn't give us any hiders, they can then have a bigger say in which roles we give them - 1 fake hider claim would force us to consider not giving a RB.

So, if we have 2 hiders, they become an unk pair and confirmed (mostly). consider: if we do have 2 hiders, in all likliness they can confirm 2 other townies night 1. Hiders claim day 2 and now there are 4 confirmed innocents. And if they wait longer, more potential confirmed innocents, but also a risk that they die without being able to pass on informations. So, the potetial for not claiming is much better, but with more risk. What I consider a downside is that 1 or 2 hider claims means we would have to consider not giving the scum a RB, and thats the 1 role the town seems to uniformly want to give.

So.. i'm anti hider claiming, and anti mass claim as well.

[Rhinox]

Hider claim?
Yes - 1 (Plumegranate)
No - 4 (ekiM, Amished, PZ, Rhinox)

Massclaim?
Yes - 0 ()
No - 5 (ekiM, Plumegranate, Amished, PZ, Rhinox)

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

I'm not sure I think your reasoning makes any sense, Rhinox.

So what if that's "the role most want to give"? If we get two hider claims, i doubt most will want to give them a roleblocker.

Even if I knew right now there were 2 hiders but we decided they weren't going to claim, I would still be ok giving a RB. with possibly 1 or especially 2 hiders claiming, and I now longer want to give a RB. Its all in the claim, not in the presence of...

I think there is more potential for hiders to remain unknown and clear townies/prevent kills. Especially if there is only 1, but even if there is 2.

If there were no hiders, I don't see how knowing that helps us all too much. Scum still have plenty of other claims to fake. I expect a >95% chance there is either 0 or 1 hider, and in the case of 1 hider, the benefit of remaining hidden outweighs the benefit of knowing their are no hiders. I feel there is a small probability of 2 hiders, but even if their were, its sort of 2 different approaches to a strategy. I would prefer to take the risk that they can do better than 2 confirmed unk if they remain unknown.

[Rhinox]

Assassin/RB it is with PR lynches.

No. In case anyone missed it last time, we don't have to lynch PRs. If we want to avoid 3 kills after a PR claim (lynch plus 2 scum kills), it is better to no lynch and force the assassin to use an attempt. The same 2 players die (the claimed PR + the regular nk choice) whether we lynch the PR or the assassin kills him after a no lynch, with the benefit that we've forced the assassin to use a kill. There is also the chance of the kill on the claimed PR being blockable. The other option being that we can still try to lynch scum accepting that there very well might be 2 town deaths at night.

to put it very clearly, there is no need to lynch all PR claims with an assassin in the game - the better options are to still lynch scum and accept 2 scum kills, or to no lynch so the same 2 players die but it sucks up an assassin attempt. I think everyone who is against giving an assassin because "lynching claimed PRs is a bad idea" should reconsider with this new strategy in mind

Unrevealed Hiders can possibly confirm an innocent or two, but at the risk of dying...

I'm ok with that risk. Assuming a minimum of 5 targets a hider could make that would kill them, and a maximum of 7, they should be able to confirm at least 1 extra innocent with a <50% chance of dying, and maybe as many as 5 under optimum conditions. Also, once a hider finds 1 innocent, their risk of dying goes down a lot because they can always choose to hide behind a safe target rather than try to clear more townies if they feel the risk is too high.

and not only does that risk of an extra scum kill cancel the benefit of scum possibly missing a kill trying to hit the Hider

While these may negate each other, it is not an either/or situation - the more probable (IMO) scenario is that the hider neither dies (early) nor prevents a kill, but lives long enough to clear a townie or 2. Just like a cop, a hider with claimed innocents will have to decide when it is better to claim results and when it is better to remain hidden.

the latter is actually not that much of a benefit (because if scum miss a kill in a game which they know contains 2 Hiders, they are probably going to be able to assume that they've tried to kill a Hider, and can then Roleblock and kill the Hider).

I would argue that if a hider is RB-killed after preventing a kill, thats still a positive. Scum still have to make the decision based on what they know of the setup whether it was a likely hider that prevented the kill, or if the kill was prevented by a JK or WD, so its not as simple as a missed kill = RB+dead hider. In the case of a JK or WD prevented kill, if the scum assume wrong and think they targetted a hider, it may even lead to a 2nd prevented kill.

[Rhinox]

I think I've been convinced to change my mind on the hider claim. I think troll be right that my resistance to the idea is mostly because claims are not usually the way games are started.

unvote: roleblocker

If we get no hider claims, RB gets my revote, and we get some setup information.

If we get 1 hider claim, its a tough choice. There could be protection roles available to protect the hider, but if the hider is RBed he won't be able to clear any townies. The scum already know what our PR's are so they will know whether its safe to attempt to kill the hider or if they have to hunt down other roles first, but either way the hider will still be RBed, at least until the RB runs out of shots. I feel we would get more/better information without a RB, but I don't like any of the other role combinations. Janitor + assassin would probably have to be my preferred role allotment, and we'd have to deal with the uncertainties the janitor role would bring. I guess I would like to know the EV's for unclaimed single hider vs claimed hider with RB vs claimed hider with no RB but janitor hijinks, if they can be calculated or even estimated.

I still doubt we have 2 hiders but if we do, then no RB. I didn't realize the EV would jump to 66% right from the get go - didn't realize 2 confirmed unk roles were really that powerful.

Hider claim?
Yes - 4 (Plumegranate, mith, Troll, Rhinox)
No - 7 (ekiM, Amished, PZ, Vas, Hoopla, Spyrex, KMD4390)

Massclaim?
Yes - 1 (Hoopla)
No - 8 (ekiM, Plumegranate, Amished, PZ, Rhinox, Vas, SpyreX, KMD4390)

[Rhinox]

Remaining:
1). Amished
2). DrippingGoofball
4). Ellibereth
8). Kmd4390
10). My Milked Eek
12). Papa Zito
13). Plumegranate

Not Hider:
3). ekiM x
5). Elmo x
6). Herodotus x
7). Hoopla x
9). mith x
11). ooba x
14). populartajo x
15). Rhinox x
16). Slicey x
17). SpyreX x
18). VasudeVa x
19). zoraster x
20). Zorblag x

[Rhinox]

vote: Janitor

So my two votes are for janitor and assassin, whether we get another hider claim or not. I argued from the beginning that the power in a hider is confirming innocents, so it would be pretty pointless giving a RB.

[Rhinox]

Seeing as you just got a role locked in that a number of players (myself included) only voted for based on the pretense that a hider exists, I a bit muffed about it. In fact, I'm just going to tunnel on you until one of us is dead based on the idea that this was a scum gambit designed to influence which roles the town gave to scum.

[Rhinox]

I didn't expeect such a fast hammer, but in any event, Janitor is harmless (IMO). Breathe.

Didn't expect a fast hammer? deadline is half a day away, people were going to make a decision either way to ensure that a choice is made. It doesn't matter how harmful or hamless a role is - just because you didn't spend 3 weeks strategizing and searching for the optimal role allotments doesn't mean others are happy seeing all that strategy pissed away.

unvote

Let the other role get picked randomly for all I care at this point.

[Rhinox]

Regarding Daycop: its more dangerous to town PR's than assassin. Its unlimited shot. Its not blockable or trackable. It can lead to PR deaths that are not likely to be protected by a JK or WD - we won't know if the scum find a PR, which is less town info/more scum-proprietary info.

Janitor is thus my 3rd choice I would give to scum. If I had to accept it, I'd choose to pair it with RB rather than assassin. Choosing between just 1 of RB or assassin, I think RB is a less harmful role than assassin.

So I guess if I rated my preferences from best to worst choices for the town to give to mafia, it would be...

RB
Assassin
Janitor
Day Rolecop

Or, paired role rankings:

RB+Assassin
RB+Janitor
Assassin+Janitor
*RB+Daycop
*Janitor+Daycop
Assassin+Daycop

*interchangeable

Vote: RB

[Rhinox]

Hero: if a player is

obv

scum, why would it matter if scum used the janitor ability? We'd already know they're scum.

[Rhinox]

@Ooba: My plan was better and different than Hoopla's.

- Anybody who agreed with a massclaim gets into the town list

Why?

- If you kept a low profile, you're in the scum list. Basically, it narrows down to if your play appears like you were afraid to express opinions strongly and ruffle a few feathers.

Going by posts alone, even papa zito had more posts during D0 than you did and he wanted nothing to do with the role speculating. How do you defend that you yourself were not trying to keep a low profile?

- If you suggested something original during D0, you're in the town list

Did you suggest anything original? Can't see anything in your iso.

[Rhinox]

Vote:KMD4390

Not around at D0 deadline, and last to hider claim. Also, didn't hider claim in #350, even though he surely read #348 and #349 before posting. Prediction: still considering whether scum should fake claim hider in the QT.

[Rhinox]

4 u elmo

Hoopla: Now that you've had time to get over being dazzled, what do you think of DGB's action (and the response to it)?

I'm still relatively dazzled to be honest. I am still learning how to read DGB, because I failed my education the first time.

If you don't know how to read DGB, then how did you know she was faking her claim?

[Rhinox]

I can't read DGB's motivations behind why she does the things she does other than 'LOL GAMBIT'. Can you? Because I could see scum and town DGB pulling that stunt.

I don't have any reason to analyze DGB any different than I would any other player. The only other game I played with her ended up being mostly DGB vs. ABR all day 1, and ended with a DGB lynch on D1. I don't like the result that the town ended up locking in a scum role based on false information, but the only real scum motivation I can find for the act is "cause a bunch of confusion right before the D0 deadline" but I don't see any real scum benefit out of it that would justify drawing the attention. On the other hand, I don't see at all how, if it really was a town gambit, it was supposed to catch scum. Scum are clearly aware whether hider(s) exist or not. I believe scum would be smart/clever enough to figure out what was going on right away, and because of that I can't analyze any responses without falling into a WIFOM trap. The most curious point is that when DGB came clean on her gambit, she immediately assumed scum should know she was lying, which would only be the case if DGB knew there were no hiders, and there were still 5? players left who haven't claimed. Mostly though, I'm just trying to ignore it ever happened and move on.

It is also curious for someone who can't read town or scum motivation in DGB's gambit to not call out a fake claim despite knowing DGB was claiming. The response that you were letting DGB get her lolreactions carries the assumption that you thought she was fakeclaiming as town, as if she were scum the "information" she would claim to obtain would not be helpful to catching scum.

Rhinox's arguments that Assassin is good because it reduces the lynch pool the way a Vig would.

Thats a pretty big misrep. The reason I felt assassin was good are found in my isos #0, and first paragraph of #1. The point you referred to in your post was in reference to the negative of an assassin being

that a couple extra deaths aren't necessarily a bad thing

...which is saying quite a bit different than "that is the reason I felt assassin was the best pick." Especially after the points I gave in support of an assassin centered around the unlikliness of the assassin even being able to get off a kill.

Rhinox, no. Just lazy. Didn't know the hider claim thing was going on. I don't think I actually saw 348 or 349. I was bored of the whole "what roles should we give scum" discussion and was pretty much waiting for the actual game, so I skimmed over the role related stuff.

But you definitely read #346, as that was what you were commenting on in #350. I don't believe that you just didn't see Ellibereth claim not hider in #347 (2-line post, easy to read quickly), followed by mith specifically requesting you to hider claim in #348 (another 2-line post), followed by troll requesting all remaining players to hider claim in #349 (3-line post). Even just skimming, its impossible to miss the requests in these posts - considering, in order to know the topic of the posts were "role related stuff you were bored of and wanted to skim over", you'd have had to read enough of the post to first know it was role related stuff. Also considering, hider claiming was pretty much all that was discussed in the previous 4 pages, so even just skimming you would have came across for example page 11, and the 14 bolded "not hider" claims in a row. So, by the time you posted in #350, its impossible for you to claim ignorance on the requests for you to claim.

[Rhinox]

Had a busy weekend and need to get caught up now. I'll post something more substantial later.

[Rhinox]

Thx Flay. At least one of these guys is scum.

DGB, Elmo, KMD, Plum, Rhinox and Zoraster.

Remember to isolate Tajo when you are in endgame and POE gives you a name out of this list.

I don't know if you meant this as a joke or serious, but you realize that mathematically, if you pick any random 6 people in a 20 player game in which there are 4 scum, there is an 80% chance that at least 1 of those 6 players are scum. Unless you feel being prodded is a scum tell, you might as well have picked 6 names at random.

By the way,

Mods, if we're going to continue with 48 hour prods, I'm going to have to announce a Pre-emptive V/LA on weekends, as I can't always guarantee I can post. Usually, posting friday and then not again til monday is enough to avoid prodding. I typically make up for less activity on the weekends with more activity during the week. I just don't think I need to be prodded every weekend.

Rhinox: I still read your "couple extra deaths aren't necessarily a bad thing" followed by "as it reduces the player pool and gives slightly better odds on the next day's lynch. Similar to, a vig who goes to town starting on day 1 might hit a few townies, but thats not necessarily a bad thing." That's an explicit comparison. Assassin reduces the player pool, better odds on the next lynch, not necessarily bad thing vs. Vig reduces player pool, mediocre players, not necessarily bad thing". A kill which hits only PRs and is given into scum control in addition to the regular NK AND kills PRs only is necessarily a bad thing if it hits. The fact that you continue to argue that the odds of a hit are poor, which we'll state for the sake of argument as true, does not affect the fact that you used a misleading and poor argument comparing the Assassin hits to Vig his on Townies, and stated that both were not necessarily bad. That does still disturb me.

Well, sorry but that was not my main argument for being pro-assassin. It was more of a small "in-addition", like it didn't even play into the reason why I wanted to give the assassin, it was just to say that I didn't feel the negative of an assassin in the unlikely event it actually got a successful shot off was really all that bad. Even if it would be a scum directed kill on a PR, typically targets of scum nk's are suspected by someone in the game, and eliminating them as a suspect (through nk) helps those players narrow in on scum. I know there are times where I've been in a better position the next day when a scum nk hit a player I had a gut scum read on that was clouding my reads on everyone else.

We're not likely to agree on this, I just don't want you to keep pushing the "Rhinox liked assassin because it reduces the lynch pool" angle because that is a clear misrep. I was at like 80% thinking the assassin would never get a successful kill, and 20% that it would. And even if there was an assassin kill, it wouldn't be that damaging because 1) can't be used to create a scum majority/win, 2) an outed power role typically becomes lame anyways, 3) chances that an outed PR can still be protected from an assassin kill, and 4) the very tiny add-on that i personally would not be concerned with an extra death via assassin for the reasons I gave. I also provided an option to limit the hurtfulness of the extra death with a no lynch when we have an outed PR that would be vulnerable to an assassin. Basically the result would be (much simplified), if the game would go to 7 days, an assassin kill on N3 would drop us down to 6 days if we lynched on D3, but if we no lynched we would still go to day 7 at the smaller cost of losing our D3 lynch instead of our D7 lynch (when the odds of hitting scum are greater).

I think I want to move away from theory discussion now though, unless you want to continue pursuing this further.

A more global question:

I love killin me people but this KMD wagon seems to be growing on its own fat. Que?

I disagree. Its not really growing at all, actually. KMD doesn't seem too concerned with the votes, but he doesn't seem to be doing any scum hunting either. So far, KMD seems less active and analytical than he is in another game with me (ongoing), and while its not a tell because he didn't flip yet, its enough of a reason for me to keep a closer eye on him.

It was a big fat rolefishing expedition. Scum want to know who the powerroles are.

I agree with that as a possible conclusion regarding mass claim, but... if there are no hiders, why would scum bother pursuing a hider claim? maybe as a distraction and a time waster (from a scum perspective, maybe thats worth the town knowledge that there are no hiders), but certainly not role fishing. Despite being initially against a hider claim myself, I feel scum would have more likely been indifferent or against a hider claim, due to already knowing there were no hiders.

To find the hider(s). Is this one of those forest/trees situations where people are missing the obvious?

Current theory is that there are one or two hiders out there who were smart enough not to claim despite all the noise in the thread about them. I guess we'll see.

I find this stance a bit scummy. It seems like an attempt to invalidate town knowledge (similar to questioning sanity after a cop claim). I'll policy lynch any hider claim on the spot later in the game, unless there is some damn solid evidence in support of the claim.

PZ, I also don't like how if you feel the town PR's were so worthless, what makes you think the scum would be so concerned with finding them that they result to rolefishing? and also what troll said about you opposing claims

unvote, vote: papa zito

still got my eye on KMD

I liked VasudeVa during D0, but lately seems to be voting anywhere a wagon might start. Especially the KMD and Hoopla votes. I'm not against voting jumping, but there needs to be actual reasons for the votes, and you can't just forget about your previous votes after you change. All seems not very genuine.

Hoopla seems to be intentionally trying to play the too scummy to be scummy card. I don't know if its because she's town or actually scum who slipped up and is trying to emerge from the hole she's dug by digging to the other side, or if she's just town fishing for opportunistic wagoners. Either way, I'm not ready to hop on board yet.

I've been hoping for more from DGB. Normally I see agressive scum hunting after a town player breaks off from a gambit. I want to see DGB pursuing any of the reads she listed in her coming clean post. So far I've been a bit underwhelmed.

[Rhinox]

In a game with this amount of superstars and at the pace we are going, there has to be at least one lurking.

Maybe, but being prodded != lurking, all the time. And all lurkers do not necessarily get prodded. Or maybe I'm wrong. {DGB, Elmo, KMD, Plum, Rhinox and Zoraster.} can you give me reasons why each of these 6 players are lurking?

In response to Rhinox's post:
If multiple townies are lurking, it's likely that one or more scum will decide they may as well lurk too, so I agree with PT. Even if it doesn't help a lot yet.

Same question as above.

@Rhinox
I move my vote where I think it needs to be. Besides, bandwagoning is a legitimate strategy D1. I switch my vote to whoever has the biggest wagon that interests me, with the intent to pressure and in turn gather more accurate information.

ok... what is/was so interesting about zoraster, KMD, and Hoopla as wagons? Why was your Ooba vote the only one that did come with a reason? Its the 1 out of your 4 votes thats different, and inconsistencies like that interest me.

[Rhinox]

Hey Vasu...

@Rhinox
I move my vote where I think it needs to be. Besides, bandwagoning is a legitimate strategy D1. I switch my vote to whoever has the biggest wagon that interests me, with the intent to pressure and in turn gather more accurate information.

This being the case, why do you seem to be taking offense to being wagoned on yourself?



More later. Heading home.

[Rhinox]

Uhhh

Yea. It's pretty clear that it wasn't a "random" sampling and even you yourself make mention of it. Which is super awesome considering you were in that list.

Me Grimlock no like post. Not at all.

I never said the names were random. I argued that the group of {players who were prodded} was not the same as the group of {players who are lurking}. I thought I covered that in this post?

Rhinox, one of the illustrious group called out, proceeds to snipe about any "random" list (hint: it wasn't random) and the statistics behind it (hint: those don't matter in this case) and then even go so far as to say being prodded != lurking != being scum.

Yea, I don't make sense. My bad.

Now you're just misrepping me.

prev-edit: @Rhinox: Well, I can't just blindly agree to my mislynch now, can I? Also, where did I 'take offense' from the wagon?

You're clearly annoyed with the votes you've received based on your replies.

I'd like everyone, if they haven't already, to express a preference between the three leading wagons. Go. (Hoopla>>>zoraster>VasudeVa)

I'm not seeing why zoraster is earning votes, but maybe I've missed that part of the thread.

I'm leaning towards agreeing with the Vasu = VI theory.

Hoopla hasn't done anything to make me not want to lynch her. I'm still not sure about her play. Doesn't seem typical town or scum. I'm stumped.

I'm not really thrilled with lynching any of the 3 of them. Hoopla>Vasu>Zoraster if I was forced to pick.

Vote Zoraster

Clearly no one is as interested in Hero as I am.

Jeez, you couldn't even give it 2 hours since voting for him to wait for replies?

[Rhinox]

ok Spy, humor me then. Why is Tajo's list better than a list of 6 random names?

[Rhinox]

Spy...

The misrep is that you are arguing that I'm trying to discredit tajo's list by comparing it to a list of 6 random names.

No, that is not what I did. Tajo pulled a list a players who were prodded in one instance, and said at least one of them were scum. Upon clarification, he said some scum would likely be lurking. My argument is that a list of 6 players who were prodded does not necessarily mean all of them are lurking, and it excludes players who may be lurking but weren't prodded in that particular post. I also asked for tajo to prove me wrong and give me reasons why the 6 players on his list are lurkers, and I don't recall ever getting an answer there. Ironically, we're also now getting posts like this from tajo:

shameless anitprod post.

tomorrow full reread.

Now, why is that list better than a random list? Seriously?

The simple fact that calling out six people for being behind activity levels at that point is telling. When I get some more time I'll go ahead and parse activity D0, D1 before that and after and see what shakes out because I guarantee you you'll see some patterns.

I applaud you for the very professional non-answer. Lets see if I can lead you into the direction of an answer I was looking for. The 6 people tajo called out {DGB, Elmo, KMD, Plum, Rhinox and Zoraster} do you think all 6 are lurkers and why? Do you think that scum are/were trying to lurk at that point in the game? Do you think there were any other players that deserved to be in that list of 6 players?

You threw down that vote for KMD out of the gates. You threw down that vote for PZ for reasons that I still don't understand. You've played lookwarm on VV and Hoopla yet, ultimately, haven't commented for real on any of them.

I'm leaning towards agreeing with the Vasu = VI theory.

Means I think Vasu is town. Thought that was pretty clear.

Hoopla hasn't done anything to make me not want to lynch her. I'm still not sure about her play. Doesn't seem typical town or scum. I'm stumped.

Means I see the logic in the reasons for her lynch, just not sure the conclusion is she's scum. Sure, lukewarm, but I also said out of the 3 leading wagons, this would be the one I would support if forced to pick among the 3.

I don't get what you've been trying to say about the KMD wagon. I'm suspicious of his play because I've seen him more active in other games, but there was no initial reason for my vote, nor was there any reason to keep it there. If you're serious about your threat to lynch KMD, I'd rather that lynch than any of the top 3 current wagons.

Is your vote well served sitting on Zito? I can get behind fighting for your candidate but, alas, you aren't doing that.

The main reason for my vote on PZ was for trying to discredit the town knowledge gained from going through the hider claim process, by suggesting that there are hiders in the game that didn't claim, and that the hider claiming plan was scum driven in an attempt to find these hiders. PZ responded sort of:

Also, if I was a hider, I'd wait a few days to get some people to hide behind, claim, and leave behind both a good-looking corpse and some confirmed townies to work with. I think this is better hider play than claiming on the extremely unlikely chance that there happens to be a pair of them.

...My question is, where was this argument D1, and how does this tanslate to "hiders exist, but haven't claimed, and the plan to claim was scum driven"?

And for the amount of tepid fighting you've done with tajo for calling you out and me now you've still managed not to say anything important about either of our alignments.

I haven't concluded anything on Tajo yet. I was waiting for some more discussion surrounding his list (such as answers to the questions I asked you previously in this post). It is suspicious that tajo was calling out

lurkers

players who got prodded once, and then had to post with the sole purpose of avoiding a prod.

As for you spy, well I'm curious as to why your 2 votes today were both on the easy targets, both leading wagons. Everytime I've played with you as town, you're usually the one leading the wagons and coming up with reasons. You seem to think hero and I are scum though, but it seems superficial, because in the same post you decide we're both scum, you end the post with a vote on hoopla. Not getting why I'm somehow linked with hero, either.

Papa Zito: what make troll scum?

[Rhinox]

UNVOTE: PZ

VOTE: hoopla

For game progression, best choice out of limited options.

[Rhinox]

ellibereth and tajo: not sure I agree with scum letting themselves get lynched just because they have a janitor. Is the benefit of hiding a scum flip good enough to cancel out the loss of a member of the scum team? Is this the strongest argument for why hoopla is scum?

Also, I don't think we should be basing our lynch on who we want to see the flip of more. We're not exactly sure the scum would definitely choose to janitor today anyways.

[Rhinox]

Gettin' caught up...

Hero #753: I don't see a reason to disbelieve hero, but its an awefully long post that basically boils down to "Hai guys I'm town because I saw hoopla's gambit and scum still used the jan". Thats nice, but... so what? I mean, I think you're town for now, but thats what scum you wants me to think, right?

I didn't see the breadcrumbs FWIW. I'm glad the jan was used, now we can forget about it for the rest of the game. Hoopla's allignment is pretty irrelevant - assume town, and worst case is we're assuming an extra scum that doesn't exist.

-------

Lots of unexplained voting going on by post #760 - waiting to see if any of it will be explained by the time I catch up to the present.

-------

Lots of talking about elmo, KMD: I think they both are who they say they are. To assume elmo is scum is to assume a real vig killed tajo. If a real vig killed tajo, elmo gets vigged tonight. QED. I presume if a second vig exists, they're smart enough to figure out not to target elmo unless they killed tajo?

-------

Spyrex, I'm not going to be happy with you unless VV is scum.

I also can't believe town-spyrex takes so long to see that lynching a claimed vig is a bad idea when we can leave it to the night to sort it out without risk.

-------

- If elmo had been tracked to tajo, the correct play would have been to ask him to shoot himself as that frees up a lynch

Not exactly. That might be true in a game where the presence of a vig is unknown and the presence of an sk is possible, but in this game, 2 kills proves at least 1 vig exists. There should never be a reason to ask a claimed vig to shoot themselves in this game.

-------

So, where I'm at right now...

Town

(in no particular order)
DGB
Elmo
KMD
Hero
Troll
VV

Everyone Else

ekiM
Ellibereth
mith
MME + SK
ooba
PZ
Plum
Seraph
Spy
Zora


Narrowing it down is tough though. Just finished iso-ing the entire list, and nobody is obvscum.

Vote: ekim

FoS: Plumen, Vas, KMD

This thread needs moar dead ooba.

VOTE: ooba

I'd like some reasons for these 2 votes.

I'm not seeing how anything productive is going to come out of nightkill speculation just now, and I do see a rather big negative (Vig-fishing).

For that (and other reasons):

VOTE: DrippingGoofball

And the "other reasons" for this one.

[Rhinox]

Rhinox: Read 430/431, 729 to start with. Add a pinch of Vig-fishing, and that her reaction to Kmd's softclaim doesn't sit well (regardless of Elmo's alignment, it would seem to be in scum's best interest to jump on the soft claim immediately: either distancing from Elmo/earning town points/running Elmo up to claim and pulling out the real Vig, or free lynch on a power role).

OK wasn't sure if the "other reasons" were previously stated in thread or new reasons.

Agree all that needs to be said on this has been said. KMD is town, we'll all know if Elmo is town tomorrow. Stop talking about it.

I don't think KMDscum is bussing Elmoscum. I don't think KMDscum fabricated a result on Elmotown that happened to be true. So I'm rolling with "KMD is confirmed town". We'll have to wait for tomorrow for the truth on Elmo.

o_O

If Elmo had a big re-read to find new suspects last night I'd quite like to know who his other suspects are. Or was it just Amished?

TRANSLATED:

pssst... elmo, level with me, who's on your short list for tonight so we know if we should block you? *wink*

VOTE: ekiM

[Rhinox]

Here's an idea...lets ignore the VVI and lynch scum.

Hmm, I see what you're saying. So Elmo should say nothing today, then?

Elmo should just play the game, and try to lynch scum like the rest of us.

Why did you specifically ask about elmo's other reads?

[Rhinox]

Because if you're not scum, the only other option in this game is town.

Why do you ask if you don't think he's scummy?

[Rhinox]

There are no scummy motivations in his play, only apparent scumminess, and buzzword cases (opportunistic, wagon hopping, hypocritical, etc.). No motivation for scum to act how he is acting, drawing plenty of attention to himself. Perfect mislynch bait. He doesn't have to be super pro-town to be obv-not-scum.

Also, I didn't say that VV isn't scummy; I said that he isn't that scummy. Read carefully.

you're right, my bad. Who's scummier then?

[Rhinox]

I'm starting to agree with ooba. I could see vas/rhinox as scumbuddies

Awesome. So I'm town when VV flips town then?

[Rhinox]

by the way, is troll on V/LA or something? he hasn't posted since day began.

[Rhinox]

/in before Rhinox/VV/DGB scumgroup claim.

Don't worry KMD, the ' ' was supposed to be interpretted as a /sarcasm tag.

Why doesn't anyone want to talk about ekiM?

[Rhinox]

Rhinox, I figured that, but still don't like it.

OK, let me try again without the sarcasm: Suppose VV is lynched today and flipped town, then what would your opinion be?

[Rhinox]

then refusal to explain why he has Vas as "town" on the list.

P.S. didn't I just explain that?

[Rhinox]

Why doesn't anyone want to talk about ekiM?

Let's talk about reverse Mike. Why is he scum?

If Elmo had a big re-read to find new suspects last night I'd quite like to know who his other suspects are. Or was it just Amished?

TRANSLATED:

pssst... elmo, level with me, who's on your short list for tonight so we know if we should block you? *wink*

VOTE: ekiM

Your turn.

Rhinox, I figured that, but still don't like it.

OK, let me try again without the sarcasm: Suppose VV is lynched today and flipped town, then what would your opinion be?

Opinion of you?

It wouldn't change. The only thing that would change is I'd know that you weren't scum specifically with Vas. So, basically that Vas was town. Which would be obvious with the flip and all.

Any other opinions, say, regarding seraph or spyrex?

then refusal to explain why he has Vas as "town" on the list.

P.S. didn't I just explain that?

Yeah. Not at first though:

Because if you're not scum, the only other option in this game is town.

Why do you ask if you don't think he's scummy?

I thought plume might be fishing for role based information. Wanted to see where it went. Thought it was odd why plume asked specifically about VV, but not troll or DGB - 2 players I also haven't given any reasons for being on the town list.

[Rhinox]

Sorry, not seeing it. That isn't enough to convince he's scum as I could see that statement coming from town too. You just threw spin on it. Got any other evidence or is that your big "slip"?

Really? You could see that statement coming from town? Let me give you a little more. ekiM just got done making a big deal about Elmo being sorted out through night actions. Presumedly, that means ekiM doesn't want to lynch elmo, but he doesn't think elmo is town either. So, how does questioning elmo about who the other suspects were (besides amished) help town-ekiM lynch scum today? I can't think of a good reason, but I can think of a very good reason for scum-ekiM to try to determine elmo's vig list.

[Rhinox]

I'm listening...

[Rhinox]

Rhinox: Why is DGB on your town list?

One of the few players in the game with some actual seemingly genuine scum hunting. Making good accusations and asking good questions. She gives me a similar feel in this game as she did as town in teleportation mafia (game 1).

[Rhinox]

Seraph: is anyone besides VV scum?

[Rhinox]

Zoraster > VasudeVa

Unvote. Vote: VV

No mention of zoraster at all today from ooba. What changed?

UNVOTE: ekiM
VOTE: ooba Wagon HO!!!

[Rhinox]

Seraph is not the lynch for today. I've been going back and forth on this, but I don't think scum have to try that hard to get VV lynched. It'd be easier to get rid of the opposition to the VV lynch, and then grab it later when someone suggests that VV is way to scummy to let get anywhere near endgame and the policy lynch commences. I'd have expected scum in seraphs position to abandon the VV wagon today and get a wagon going on me for example a couple pages ago.

If we're going to lynch based on the "VV is town" assumption, spyrex is a much better lynch. He hasn't really been too assertive in pushing the lynch which tells me he wants it to happen but he doesn't want to lead the charge. He also would have been all over my wagon in a heartbeat had anyone decided to go that route, based on comments from yesterday and my opposition to the VV lynch. Spy actually hasn't been scumhunting much at all. He's made some suggestions especially during D1, but he's been unwilling to follow them up with votes. His vote was on VV yesterday until he switched to the other easy lynch in hoopla, and has done nothing but camp on his VV vote today. He strikes me as not wanting to stick his neck out and lead this game, and town-spy loves to lead IME.

Another option is to smoke out the scum who don't want to touch the VV situation with a 10ft pole. There's a few players that haven't done much in the way of discussing this particular situation at all. I'm thinking, zoraster, PZ, hell maybe even mith for that matter. mith led a lot of the discussion and provided a lot of analysis up til today, and suddenly seems to be waiting to see how this situation will play out.

I like the ooba wagon though. ooba would be a good lynch today. I don't see how VV801 is the magic post that makes VV scummier than zoraster for ooba. ooba is more likely to be scum pushing the vvtown lynch rather than seraph, and in the event that VV is town, I can see ooba's vote to be more likely bussing than spyrex, given

Far too many people seem to be playing the Vas-newbie\VI card to derail this wagon; Once you flip scum, that'll be a good place to start looking for your scumbuddies.

...and that ooba seemed to try to massage a reason to vote VV today when he could have been making the same arguments yesterday when "zoraster>VV"

[Rhinox]

EBWOP:

I like the ooba wagon though. ooba would be a good lynch today. I don't see how VV801 is the magic post that makes VV scummier than zoraster for ooba. ooba is more likely to be scum pushing the vvtown lynch rather than seraph, and in the event that VV is

town

scum

, I can see ooba's vote to be more likely bussing than spyrex, given

Its past my bedtime

[Rhinox]

In other words, rolecop + roleblocker + nightkill gives the scum three chances per day/night cycle to find the hidden vigilante, making it virtually impossible for the vig to stay alive and safely hidden. And ooba was the one who advocated for this.

At first, I wasn't buying this, but scum also gave us a tracker as well, which can be another avenue to identify the vig. Its certainly some suggestive circumstantial evidence, but I don't think its THE reason to lynch ooba today.

[Rhinox]

Third paragraph is weird, though - zoraster hasn't said anything at all, and Papa Zito seems to be locked into tunnel-mode, but both of those things are either scummy/not scummy on their own. Feels a bit like Rhinox is trying to create a scummy motivation where there isn't one, and is particularly reaching when he brings me into it. Almost a "hey, don't forget about mith, he could be scum!" sort of thing, much like DGB's 395. (The "these people aren't discussing VV" thing is especially odd coming from someone who earlier today posted "Here's an idea...lets ignore the VVI and lynch scum".)

hmph. I did say that didn't I. Not many took that advice though. Is that why you haven't been weighing in on the subject? If not, my point still has some validity to it.

[Rhinox]

@Rhinox:
Post 1014: serious? (y/n)

Serious, but not a strong consideration. Its interesting, but circumstantial only. Something I'd be curious if it was valid, in the post game discussion.

Out of curiosity, what is THE reason to lynch ooba? It seems a wagon built on wagoning for wagoning's sake.

Unexplained flip from "zoraster>VV" to "vote: VV". The reasoning given by ooba is that one of VV's posts today in particular is not scum hunting while appearing to be useful. I have hinted already so I might as well say it, you could have made that arguement well before today. From VV's iso:

this post
this post

both give off the trying to be useful vibe, but failing. There are plenty of posts prior to today to support the "VV is not scumhunting" half of the argument.

[Rhinox]

Unexplained flip from "zoraster>VV" to "vote: VV".

Could be a variant of FOS:scumpal, vote:townie.

[Rhinox]

@hero:

I presume if a second vig exists, they're smart enough to figure out not to target elmo unless they killed tajo?

...was what I was thinking earlier before I was promptly told to shut up.

@mith: I sort of thought your post 3 days ago was solidly on the fence about VV, although you clearly called seraph scum. You also mixed in a bunch of other reads, and your vote and focus is clearly on DGB, who IMO is not really likely to get lynched anyways, while aside from the one line in #895, you've done nothing more to argue the seraph is scum angle.

Also,

but otherwise I have had (and expressed) a pretty consistent "Seraphim acting scummy, VV probably town" lean.

This statement doesn't seem entirely accurate. #895 does seem like seraph = scummy, but it seems more like your on the fence about VV and on the verge of leaning scum. Then we have #994 where you claim to be going back and forth on it and that you feel you should have a better read (but don't). Then, #1039 you say you don't think VV is scum, but you seem more on the fence about seraph. Something akin to "not town, but not necessarily scum." So it hasn't come across as "consistent Seraphim acting scummy, VV probably town".

Last little bit:

Anyway... obviously you suggesting we ignore VV would cause me to ignore VV (whatever my alignment).

I don't really get this. Obviously some players have given the symbolic middle finger to the suggestion to ignore VV, and some even go as far as suggesting that ignoring VV is scummy. My question was if you were staying away from the seraph/VV discussion due to my suggestion, then the point I tried to make is obviously invalid and withdrawn. But your responses instead say that you don't think you are staying away from the conversation at all, in which my rebuttle is that may be true but it doesn't seem like you've come to any concrete conclusions, and your focus has been more on lynching DGB and not asking any questions trying to come up with a more solid position on seraph vs. VV.


But actually what I really want is more spyrex in this game. I mean, yesterday he was making an argument where I was doing pretty much nothing. I would argue that today, especially over the last week, spyrex is now guilty of that accusation.

[Rhinox]

Sorry for falling off the last few days. Holiday weekend and all.

@Rhinox and SpyreX: As of right now, who do you wanna lynch toDay and why?

I'll hold off on answering this til I catch up to the present.

@Rhinox:
Do you have any clarification regarding the second quote from post 1052?

Well I was just thinking that assuming scum had a goal of outing a vig ASAP, giving the town a tracker could lead to a vig being outed by way of being tracked to a kill. So in that way, the presence of a tracker lends some credibility to PZ's theory. But at the time I was forgetting that the RB was limited shot, making it ineffective for vig hunting, so that kinda shoots the theory down. That, and nearly everyone supported giving scum the RB anyways. By 1052 I had already dismissed the "ooba is vighunting scum" theory.

If you're saying I haven't clearly been saying that VV is scum for a good long time and MOST OF SAID TIME been dealing with "ohh meta says #E$&*(#&($&#($H" well I don't know.

Well, the difference between you and Seraph lets say is that seraph is here arguing his damndest to get VV lynched with quotes and facts and whatnot. You haven't even given us a couple sentences explaining why VV is scum, and you've been curiously lurking back today letting seraph do all the hard work.

"ooba: Answer Rhinox's point in 1000: Why did you go from a stance of "zoraster>VV" yesterday to voting VV, on the basis of 801?"
The way he asked questions in 801 - looked like a random bunch of questions thrown around with no purpose - Got a very strong scum vibe.

I guess I just don't see what makes those questions the nudge that makes VV scummier.

People, in their next post, should post the order of preference for three of the current "wagons" going right now or even better, change your vote for who you want to lynch.

I'll get to this at the end.

One related thing I think suggests ooba-town is the postscript in ooba ISO 2. Gut says that the scum wouldn't want the town to be aware that the scum would be allowed to select which of them received the PR's, especially given his reason for bringing it up.

Thats a good point. On the other hand, I've been struggling with the opposite - scum would be more interested in knowing how they would be given their roles if it were looking like they would have to come up with some fakeclaim strategies for a mass claim. But you've got a point that it doesn't make sense for scum to make that information public.


Alright, caught up to the end. I agree with a zoraster lynch, based on the points brought up today, and zorasters lack of any response really. ooba lynch looks less good based on the point hero brought up, but still a good lynch IMO. I prefer a zoraster lynch though. I don't like DGB or VV lynches at all.

UNVOTE: ooba
VOTE: zoraster (L-1)

[Rhinox]

Zoraster, the problem is you called KMD scummy and your second choice for lynch, despite the fact that KMD has claimed tracker with a non-disputed result. Elmo was tracked to a kill (by KMD), and Elmo confirmed that result, so the only way KMD is scum is if BOTH KMD and Elmo are scum, or KMD took a random guess and got impossibly lucky. Since Elmo is "as town as they come", it really doesn't seem to make sense that you can call KMD scum. That was a pretty big point at the beginning of the day today, and kinda hard to just miss in a readthrough.

[Rhinox]

mith:

but otherwise I have had (and expressed) a pretty consistent "Seraphim acting scummy, VV probably town" lean.

Still True? yes/no? why/whynot?

Zoraster still more likely scum yes/no?


I can't see myself supporting a DGB lynch today. I would rather help VV lynch spyrex if there was any other support. I've been adamant that VV is town and I won't support his lynch. That means currently, the viable wagons I have to choose from are mith and zoraster. I still prefer zoraster. He really hasn't done anything all game, recent disconnect or not. I feel like the initial point KMD made against mith was pretty weak. But I also feel that mith's reactions/responses have been pretty bad, and I have my own other concerns about mith I expressed earlier today.

I'm more concerned with what the overall inactiveness and apathy says about all of our lynch choices.

[Rhinox]

Sorry guys, forgot this day had started.

Starting from my reads yesterday, removing the dead, and relabeling into more descriptive reads...

Town

KMD
VV

Leaning Town

DGB
Adumbro

unsure

mith
ekiM
seraph
ooba
Plum
iam
MME

Leaning Scum

Ellibereth
Spyrex

Definitely Scum

{TBD}

----------------------------------

With that out of the way, thoughts on the day so far.

1) still not convinced of mith-scum. I feel the reason the wagon started was weak, but mith didn't do himself any favors the way he was responding. I'm not opposed to the lynch, but I'm not prepared to vote for it yet and will look for better choices and better reasons.

2) Yesterday, mith asked me:

Rhinox: Remembered on ISOing your post to look for previous comments on DGB that I've already asked you something similar. So, to rephrase: Do you feel her recent vote for me (based on Kmd's reasoning, which you call "weak") and then switch back to zoraster (after "So now I'm thinking you must be scum, and zoraster town." in the previous post) reflects actual scumhunting?

I think that if DGB thought you had made a scum slip as KMD pointed out, then the jump to you from zoraster was logical. I don't really get the whole "I was thinking it before KMD pointed it out" part and it doesn't quite feel genuine there. The switch back to zoraster... meh... it was 36hrs to deadline and I can only guess that DGB felt that your lynch could not happen yesterday. Given that DGB spent a good many posts suspecting zoraster before the detour to you, its not like she just abandoned her top suspect to vote the biggest wagon on a player she didn't suspect - she still suspected zoraster. I have more problems with your switch from DGB, to zoraster, back to DGB, and then back to zoraster.

3) Throwing out a thought - KMD not blocked equals second vig? No need to discuss in detail as even though scum already know the answer, the discussion could provide clues to identify. Just thought it was worth mentioning to keep in consideration.

4) Elli 1251 really seems like scum buddying up to confirmed town.

5) Good point in favor of mith-town:

scum-mith would not have pointed out that the wagon on said Vigilante was a bad idea, since he was testable - perhaps someone else would have pointed this out, but perhaps not, and one never turns down the possibility of a free lynch on a power role

The rest of the reasons mith gave in #1255 aren't really valid reasons.

6)

Mith+DGB are scum if zora flips town ..

Still support this? I hope?

I would really like to hear some reasons, especially from ooba, why it is in any way likely that mith and DGB are both scum together.

7) iams post #1259 - gonna respond to it in a separate post to avoid an unreadable wall of text post.

[Rhinox]

This post will be addressing iam's #1259, with some of my thoughts thrown in when appropriate:


DGB section: nothing to comment on

ekiM section: nothing to comment on

elli section:

Post #458: This is both true and not something scumElli would have a lot of motivation to point out.

Zorblag actually pointed out the MME lack of reading first, in this post, so I don't think this is really a point in favor for elli, and in fact should be listed as a point in favor for troll.

mostly agree with the rest of your points.

kmd section: no comments

mith section: no comments

MME section:

Post #451: I really don't see scum making this post. If this is feigned ignorance, then I have to say that MME is an impressive actor.

Agree and forgot all about this until this post bumping MME up to leaning town.

ooba section: no comments for now.

Plume section:

Post #834: The particular wording of "Vig shoots Elmo tonight is obv the best plan." seems highly unlikely to come from scum, who would know that Elmo was vig.

This is not just about plume, but with the possibility of a second vig in play, this is not necessarily something scum would avoid suggesting.

Rhinox section:

Post #293: Pretty damn horrible. Both the idea in itself and the wording of this post are super scummy to me. "I'm just going to tunnel on you until one of us is dead

based on the idea

that this was a scum gambit designed to influence which roles the town gave to scum." That's not the way that someone who actually believed in what he was saying would word that post, I don't think.

This accusation is pretty damn horrible. A) this was just me expressing a bit of rage at the turn of events that led to the hammer of a role I felt was not optimal based on bad information, and B) that's not how I acted at all in the game, so...? and C) which is an extension of B), if it sounded like I didn't believe what I was saing in that post, it would be because

I didn't actually intend to act on what I was saying in that post

, as evidenced by completely ignoring it happened ever since, and not actually acting how I said I was going to.

all the stuff about tajo and lists

I thought I was done trying to explain this, but I'll give it one more go. Forget about the statistic and the random list part, that was bad explaining on my part. The issue I had with it was that tajo's list was not selected in a "completeness" way, it was selected in a "lazy" way. The list of players proded is/was not one in the same with the list of players lurking, ergo it does not follow that the list of players prodded is likely to contain scum because lurkers are likely to be scum. There may have been (and in fact were) players included in that list that did not fit the lurker title, and there may have been (and probably were) players who fit the lurking title that were not prodded at that particular point of the game. It does not mean that I didn't think there was scum in that group, I just felt he was using bad and lazy logic. In fact, town-tajo would likely hit a scum in that group by raw statistics, but I felt that because of the way tajo made his list, if he were town, he might as well of picked 6 random names. Scum-tajo on the other hand would have had any number of possible motives for choosing his list as he did.

This issue has really been moot for a while now, and tajo is dead and town, but if this is going to be held against me, these are the points that need to be proven true:

1) All the players on tajo's list were lurkers.
2) There were no other lurkers outside of tajo's list.
3) At least 1 scum is/was likely to be lurking.

The core of the issue is/was that I did not believe any of those 3 points were accurate. I asked for evidence of the players on tajo's list lurking and got none. I asked if any other lurker was deserving to be on the list (TM) but get left out, and was ignored. When I asked spyrex why the list was better than 6 random names, here's the response I got:

Now, why is that list better than a random list? Seriously?

The simple fact that calling out six people for being behind activity levels at that point is telling. When I get some more time I'll go ahead and parse activity D0, D1 before that and after and see what shakes out because I guarantee you you'll see some patterns.

This is not only not an answer, but he never did what he said he was going to do in this post.

"I'm not seeing why zoraster is earning votes, but maybe I've missed that part of the thread." - Wouldn't your first instinct as a townie, faced with someone receiving a significant number of votes that you don't understand, be to maybe try to find out a reason for those votes? Maybe read the part of the thread that you somehow missed, maybe ask the voters for their reasons? Not so Rhinox, he seems to be content to just let it be.

I can see why you think what you do, but you're making a faulty assumption. You're assuming that I did not indeed go read zoraster in iso, and go read all the players who voted zoraster on the D1 wagon looking for reasons, and then read it all a couple more times, and try to determine why there were votes on zoraster. I could not find a reason, and thus my statement you quoted was my (aparently bad) way of trying to provoke anyone supporting the D1 zoraster wagon to give me some reasons he was getting votes. Actually, I'm a bit suspicious of this point of attack you made against me - I would think a townie who suspected me of not reading parts of the thread to ask me a question like "Hey Rhinox, why are there parts of the thread you're missing", or "Why didn't you read back and try to figure that out" before automatically assuming the answer, where as scum looking to attack a townie would assume an answer to twist an innoculous statement into something scummy.

Post #842: Wooow, this reaction to Hero's "I saw Hoop's breadcrumb" post is just awful. Like seriously, "I think you're town for now, but thats what scum you wants me to think, right?" Why would you ever say this as town?

Well, the answer is, thats what I said as town, so... idk. Thats what I was feeling. That my first instinct was that scum-hero would claim to have seen the breadcrumb to "prove" he was town, but for the time being I was going to believe he was actually townie who saw the breadcrumb due to the evidence he provided. With that statement, I obviously wasn't trying to distance from hero-scumpartner, and I never used that to actually try to build a case on hero or get him mislynched - in fact, pretty consistent all of D2 that I felt hero was town - so I'm not too sure what I'm actually being attacked for here. So now its my turn to ask you - what about my reaction was awful? Why was it not something I should say as town?

Post #880: Imagine for a moment that you are Rhinox, and you are scum with DGB and Vas. Would you be able to resist making this post?

Sry, I was already inb4. Also, circular logic is circular.

Post #929: Given that the answer to "what changed?" is both obvious, and stated clearly in the post where ooba voted Vas, this is a pretty horrible excuse for a wagon.

Now that zoraster has flipped town, this issue with ooba is not as big of a deal for me as it was yesterday. I was working the angle that ooba leapfrogged his zoraster suspicion for VV to avoid voting for a scumbuddy. I was wrong, and now it seems more likely that ooba genuine felt VV became scummier than zoraster.

Post #1000: Is that an "ooba is scum no matter what Vas flips" post? I think it is. Oh boy.

Sure was. What's your point? Some people want to see certain flips to determine other players' allignments. I was trying to find scum in a way that doesn't involve some other scenario being true. The whole point behind that post was that people were trying to find other scum based on how they felt VV would flip, so I went looking for scum that "fit" regardless of VV's allignment. Its not exclusively how I play though, as evidenced above by admitting my suspicion of ooba has lessened by the zoraster flip.

Post #1046: This 'circumstantial evidence' business gives me the shivers. It's real "pay no attention to the man behind the curtain" stuff, he's downplaying the importance of the argument a lot, trying to put it beyond scrutiny by saying that it's just a curiosity that he'll be "interested to see if it's valid in the postgame", but he never actually gets to the point of saying that it's not valid.

You're basically selectively quoting me here, by not linking to this post where I gave the answer that I decided it wasn't valid after asked for clarification by hero.

Summary of thoughts of iam's list of points against me: It feels as if iam created this list by starting with a goal of proving I was scum and manipulating some of my quotes into supporting that conclusion, rather than reading me and coming to the conclusion that I am scum afterwards. But of course, I'm biased, and I'm going to have a negative reaction to what I know is a bad attack against me. I'll hold off judgement until I hear some more interaction on an issue I'm not biased.

Seraph section:

Post #692: This post gives me a bad feeling. Overexplaining yourself in this way is a symptom of scum being overly concerned about appearing consistent.

I find it odd that you bring up overexplaining here, but don't mention anything of mith's responses to the accusations against him at the end of the day yesterday. Specifically, the abcd... logic train list, as well as the extended football metaphor fall well in the realm of "way overexplaining", although in a different context, I admit.

Post #938: Seraph finally stops tunneling on Vas for a second to discuss other scum. What exactly makes the idea of a DGB/Vas/Rhinox team ridiculous? The fact that they're being too obvious about it? I invite you to take a look at the scum play in /in-vitational 4.

Now this is interesting... using a game in which none of us are even involved in as meta-evidence to support your idea of a scum group? Thats pretty scummy.

I disagree with pretty much all the points you brought up against seraph here. The points feel manipulated and contrived.

Spyrex section: I completely disagree with you. I've said before that hoopla and VV are not the type of targets I generally see town-spyrex go after. The add-on to that, that I have left off until now, is "...especially if he genuinely thinks a player like me or hero are scum".

VV section: Against my better judgement, I'm going to let you guys in on a little bit of my thinking with VV here. In some recent games, I've joined wagons of some VI-type players I've really thought were town, but I voted to lynch anyways because the case was convincing enough and I didn't have a good reason not to vote the player, nor a more convincing case elsewhere. So, I've regretted making those decisions, and decided that the next time I was in a position where I really felt strongly that a VI-type player was town, I would not support the lynch and try harder to find better lynches. VV is that player in this game. I admit there are solid reasons to lynch him, but I do not think he is scum, and will not support his lynch.

Troll section: A couple of interesting points there, that I have not really considered until now.

Do you think any of troll's D0 play is indicative of his allignment?


Well, I think this is a long enough post for now. Hope it's legible.

[Rhinox]

Apologies for my extended absence. After being busy all weekend, I was laid up sick in bed all day yesterday. Got some things to catch up on at work now, and then as soon as I get some free time this afternoon, I'll get caught up in this game.

[Rhinox]

No, because Troll made no mention of what this said for MME's alignment. Pointing out that MME was paying no attention is a null tell, because that was both blindingly obvious and not particularly against scum's interest to point out anyhow. Pointing out that MME's cluelessness was a pretty big town tell in that situation is less obvious, and something that scum would have considerably less inclination to say.

OK I see your point I guess I was thinking that it was pretty obvious to anyone reading that MME was either town or acting scum from his comment, so scum would not want to draw any attention to the comment at all.

Right, I meant to complete that thought later on; the fact that you never actually followed through on this, in addition to the highly artificial tone I picked up from the wording, makes me think the whole thing was just staged as a little piece of distancing between you and DGB.

I think it's very interesting that you freely admit that you had no intention of acting on what you were saying there, rather than claiming to have changed your mind later.

What made you think it was a good idea to make a completely insincere post like that?

I was wondering if that was the direction you were going. If it were distancing from my scum partner DGB though, haven't I gone and completely erased any potential scum benefit from that by riding the "DGB is town" train ever since?

Whats so interesting about me freely admitting that I had no intention of following through on my threat to tunnel on DGB? As I said, it was just me whining and raging about how I got "tricked" into voting for the janitor. I wasn't thinking rationally about the statement at all, so I can't say I thought making the statement was a good idea. But your question is worded in a funny way that makes it seem like making the statement was a bad idea or anti-town, and I don't see how it was that either.

Really, not even #3?

That it wasn't proven, or at least more likely than not to be true, no, not even #3. Not enough to make a list and say "one of these guys is scum" anyways.

How important is this point to you with regards to my allignment? If I link to this post, it shows that of the 6 people on tajo's list, prods were retracted on 2 of the players anyways. That pretty much means that "1) All the players on tajo's list were lurkers." is false. If its required of me, I'm sure I can go back and find some other players that may not have been prodded at that particular time, but were fitting of the lurker label, thus showing that "2) There were no other lurkers outside of tajo's list." is false and there were indeed lurkers not present on tajo's list. The thing is, tajo's dead, so I don't particularly care any more. Continuing to discuss it isn't helping me find scum, its only me defending myself against something that I'm not entirely sure why its some big negative mark against me.

By the way, zoraster made similar (worse, imo) comments with regards to tajo's list in this post as well as this post and nobody held it against him.

(preview edit: in case that wasn't obvious, that was a subtle "spy was attacking me for the comments but didn't mention zoraster" inconsistency accusation)

Haha, nicely done.

So, when nobody did seem to pick up on your subtle attempt at requesting an explanation for the zor votes, why did you not make the request more bluntly?

At the time, I didn't think it was a subtle request. I think I forgot about it getting sidetracked by a discussion with spyrex, that went no where, and then deadline got close. At some point, I remember someone else asking more bluntly about it, but it must have been during early D2 discussion or I keep missing it while scanning the end of D1. Anyways, if it looked like zoraster was going to be lynched, I probably would have been more demanding for an explaination. As zoraster was not being lynched, I guess I didn't view getting an answer as a priority.

I might go back and take a look at that D1 zoraster wagon when I get some time tomorrow. No one gave an answer and the wagon dissolved. Now that I'm thinking more about it since zor's flip D2, there was probably scum there on D1.

Yeah, no, because you knew you had no case there. The whole thing smacks of scum being irritated that a townie has confirmed themselves, basically.

Yeah, I guess I can see how you'd come to that conclusion. Idk, I don't really have an answer for this one, other than "you're wrong". Given that it looks like hero was a vig kill, he didn't exactly confirm himself to everyone, anyways.

HYPOTHETICAL SITUATION:

Bob says "Sally said the word "pie", which scum would never do!"
Zoe links him to a previous game of hers, which neither Bob nor Sally were involved in, where scum player George said the word "pie".

Please explain in 500 words or fewer why Zoe is scum in this situation.

Scum saying "pie" once does not make it likely that scum will always say "pie", especially when saying "pie" is not a good strategy.

I think RayFrost's play D2 in Flash Mafia is definitely comparable to Vas here, right up to having legions of fools convinced that he was town for no good reason. I know, because I was one of those fools. And I recall Spyrex gunning pretty hard for him.

Oh hey, and this time it's a game you were involved in, too!

yeah no. Spyrex's general D1 attitude towards RF in that game:

Woosh:

Me: Rayfrost is town because he is genuine. There isn't any feel of manipulation from his posts.
You: He hasn't been scumhunting. The only player's he's gone after are Mufasa and Snow Bunny (which, gasp, would be scumhunting but I digress)
Me: MANY players haven't been scumhunting. Why is that justification for HIM being scum at this point of the game?
You: Why is that justification for him being TOWN at this point in the game? P.S. Strawman
Me: What? How is your line about his not scumhunting not justification for his lynch? If not what is it? (This hasn't been answered, still)

I am saying I do not think Ray is a justifiable lynch because he seems genuine in his play. Further, the speed and style of this wagon reek of a mislynch.

...and RF was not lynched D1. Spyrex was pursuing other targets. It wasn't until D2 when the whole town piled on obvscum RF that spyrex joined in. Even then, spy said:

I'll freely admit if this flip is town I'm not going to be surprised. Pissed, but not surprised.

So it seems like in that game, town spy never really thought RF was scum at all until his flip. Now I'm not sure if I would say RF's play was equivilant to VV's play here - I wasn't actually a part of that game until well after both RF and spyrex were dead, so the early game is even harder for me to recall than the later. But assuming it was, town spy was pursuing alternatives to the easy "VI" lynch until it became inevitible that RF was going to be lynched. In other words, exactly the opposite as how he is playing in this game, basically tunneling on the easy "VI" lynch and not seriously pursuing other targets at all.


And, that may be it for tonight. Wanted to get completely caught up, but only had time to respond to iam again. I'll quickly scan and see if there is anything I can quickly respond to, but I've been working on this post for like an hour and a half, and its already past my bedtime. I could have been playing halo reach, you know...

[Rhinox]

oh, there was this one comment that KMD made that made a lot of sense.

Should we lynch someone on V/LA because being V/LA can come from either alignment, but only scum would lie about it?

This has been the comment that makes the most sense to me regarding mith vs. kmd, and I'd like to here a response from mith in the context of "either town or scum could not have a clue about whats going on in the thread, but only scum would fake it" - mith's logic for voting zoraster.

The rest of the conversation still doesn't make any sense to me.

----------------------

Skimmed the last 3 pages again and there is lots of interesting stuff, but nothing I have the energy to break down, analyze, and comment on tonight. maybe tomorrow.


Oh, and I'm not voting anyone?

vote: spyrex

[Rhinox]

-ONE OF OOBA/ADUMBRO/SERA/PLUMPOM/HHVV DIES TODAY. NO EXCEPTIONS. MY VOTES NOT GOING ANYWHERE ELSE

Fate, I was down with a ooba lynch until hero ruined that idea for me.

One related thing I think suggests ooba-town is the postscript in ooba ISO 2. Gut says that the scum wouldn't want the town to be aware that the scum would be allowed to select which of them received the PR's, especially given his reason for bringing it up.

Thats a good point. On the other hand, I've been struggling with the opposite - scum would be more interested in knowing how they would be given their roles if it were looking like they would have to come up with some fakeclaim strategies for a mass claim. But you've got a point that it doesn't make sense for scum to make that information public.

What do you think about that?

Adumbro, meh. I thought troll was town for his D0 contibutions, but then he basically flaked as soon as the game started. The flaking is null. And if Adumbro is an alt of who I think he is, then he's definitely town.

Sera- thinking town.

plumpom- ok, this could be scum, but I haven't looking into them much.

HHVV- won't get my vote.


I'm really struggling to identify scum in this game. Right now, I've got Spy and Ellibereth as my top 2. In my grou of "unsures" from the start of the day, I want to move {MME, iam, ooba, seraph, Fate, mith} into leaning town based on all discussion today, leaving just plumpom as potential scum. I'm still 1 scum short. That means I'm either wrong about one of my reads from today, or I'm wrong about one of my longer term town reads {HHVV, DGB, Adumbro}. I'm going to have to think on it a bit. It unnerves me a little to have so many town reads in this game...

[Rhinox]

well, if I can't get a spyrex lynch, and he and ellibereth are both voting ooba (ellibereth choosing to vote ooba over plum when both VC's were equal), no way I can support an ooba lynch based on that alone.

UNVOTE: spyrex
VOTE: plumpom

but would anyone be down for an ellibereth lynch instead?

[Rhinox]

hmmmm...

Hoopla Gambit revealed page 30 linky

DGB hider claim page 11 yeah ok. linky

Any town claims guess could be referring to at any point in the game so page is irrelevant.


So only your second question makes any sense at all - and maybe the 3rd is plausible - in relation to your first statement in your post:

I'm still plodding along with my read, but I've got a few questions I might as well ask right now. I briefly skimmed the first 15 pages, so I'm sure I missed some of these answers.

But the first question makes no sense at all if you're only to page 15.

So, how do you know about the hoopla gambit if you haven't skimmed past page 15 yet? Read about it in the scum QT did ya?

Unless there's a good explaination for this, this seems like a slip worth changing my mind on the whole player slot.

[Rhinox]

FATE I WANT TO BOUNCE OVER FOR A SEC I MIGHT BOUNCE BACK K.

UNVOTE, VOTE PLUM

I don't get this. why the change?

---------------

HH 1466 - ok, understand.

---------------

Just as a FYI, I'm going to be running around an awful lot in between Ohio and PA this weekend, starting tonight, so I'll be even less active this weekend than I normally am on weekends. Sorry.

[Rhinox]

unvote, vote DGB

I was wrong.

Do it! no questions, I'll explain tomorrow.

[Rhinox]

DGB is flailing scum. lynchlynchlynchlynchlynchlynch NAO! kthx

[Rhinox]

Nope, you're gonna have to claim Rhinox. If DGB is scum you've basically claimed anyway, now let the rest of town hear your stuff.

Did I? u sure?

DGB is the leading wagon, if you still want my "stuff", you can have it... tomorrow. After we lynch scum.

[Rhinox]

I hold DGBs life in my hands and I demand a fullclaim from Rhinox.

hahahaha

no.

[Rhinox]

Mith, maybe you should put Fate on that scum list?

[Rhinox]

I hold DGBs life in my hands and I demand a fullclaim from Rhinox.

hahahaha

no.

The fucks the matter with you?

If there are shenanigans and DGBs town, tomorrow you will get lynched regardless of claim.

UNDERSTOOD?

agreed now please hammer?

[Rhinox]

huzzah!

[Rhinox]

-_o

(sleep with one eye open, get it?)

[Rhinox]

*sigh* gg fruitsisters. didn't see it coming.

Plumegranate twins get MVP as far as I'm concerned. Why'd you guys wait so long to hammer?

Spyrex was 100% transparent from the start of the game. Wish I could have been more convincing. Shoulda stuck to my guns on ooba early in the game too.

Fate... lol. possibly the worst confirmation bias I've seen. Not a single one of your points against mith made any sense at all.


Had I been alive, I would have never supported a mith lynch, but I would have compromised with a PF lynch. Like mith, I was sure they were the last 2 scum.

I've been on the unfortunate business end of spytown's wrath while scum twice I think, so from my POV spyscum this game couldn't have been any more obvious even before VV/HH flipping town.

[Rhinox]

and that one of the best scum moments in this game was when DGB got Rhinox to CC her.

In hindsight, CC-ing prevented the plumpom lynch for the DGB lynch, and had I not CCed, town would have probably cruised to a victory.. At the time, I thought plumpom lynch was a mislynch and town really needed a scum flip to get going. From my POV, trading my life for the first scum lynch and preventing another town lynch was a perfectly good use of my role. And I also sort of thought KMD would be killed before me anyways. I was hearing some crap about me not claiming my results - I had two "went nowhere" results on living players. One I suspected was scum and didn't want my result to influence anyone, and I didn't want to let the scum know the other was not a PR. If faced with the same situation again, I'd probably play it the same way.

[Rhinox]

SWEET FINALLY A SPYREX WAGON!!11!!!!1!!11!!ONE!

vote: spyrex

GOGOGOGOGOGOGOGOGOGO!!!!!