StrangerCoug's Worst Nightmare IIIS: The Dungeon (Game over)

[xvart]

Hello everyone. I haven't read a single post yet but I'll be working on it over the weekend. I'll have something up tomorrow night at the latest. Happy hunting.

xvart.

[xvart]

Can someone give me a rundown on if there are any Post Restrictions and what they are?

xvart.

[xvart]

Okay, so I still haven't read all the pages up to where I replaced in, but I have ISOed the scums that have flipped and unfortunately they didn't really give much (other than two of them voting Mafuyu in RVS, which is interesting). Until I get the final few pages read, I'm going to suggest we just start lynching all the post restricted people. Last game there were a couple mafia post restrictions and no post restricted scum have flipped yet. Since we are so far ahead I don't see the harm, other than we still need to be on the lookout for a SK (or maybe vig, which would be no problem). I'm willing to start with Chesskid as he was on the first lynch wagon early and I don't see scum being that late on a town wagon that looked to be going through without a scum push at the end (manho).

Also, does Twomz have a post restriction? Someone said when I asked that he posts only one liners, but his ISO does not follow that.

DAY ONE LYNCH COUNT

Blooderection (3): Parama, Antihero, Framm 18

Baby Spice

(10): The Stove, Lady Lambdadelta,

chesskid3

, Blooderection, Me=Weird,

Nobody Special

, Espeonage, Twomz,

manho

, Tasky

chesskid3 (1): Toon Fighter
Lady Lambdadelta (1): Reckamonic

Nobody Special

(1): smargaret
Parama (1):

Baby Spice

Not voting (3): xvart,

Mafuyu

Vote: Chesskid

xvart.

[xvart]

Blooderection is the play today. I'm not joking.

VOTE: Blooderection

Hmmmm... Are you saying what I think you're saying?

Traduzione: io sono feccia e mi piacerebbe spingere due (probabile, idk circa manho) misslynches perché, si sa, le restrizioni post sono assegnati in modo casuale e tutti e nessuno feccia preso uno a questo gioco. [[TRANSLATED: I'm scum and I'd push two (probable, idk about Manh) misslynches because, you know, the restrictions are randomly assigned and all scum and no one got this game.]]

The post restrictions are randomly assigned? I was not aware of this. (going back to look at previous SWN games for any indication that this is true or public knowledge.)

xvart.

[xvart]

Xvart, I'm looking at you tomorrow. Didn't we have this argument in SWN3 about lynching PRs?

BE is still the play.

You won't have much to look into since I only have a couple posts in this game, and I was NK'ed N0 in SWN3. But regardless, the situation is a little different since I think the conversation about lynching post restricted people is completely different because there were post restricted scum that hadn't flipped in that game and here we have three scum flipped with no post restrictions. I think my point is valid (barring any information I can find that chesskid suggested).

xvart.

[xvart]

xvart. I suggested the same thing at the beginning of SWIII. I quickly realized the following.

Even if scum WERE to /fake/ a PR, to seem town, it's WIFOM trying to determine who, if any, are faking.

1

Also, it's likely that SC has set 1 person from the mafia side, to have a legit PR, just to balance.

2

Discussing PR's and how they affect us, yields no information past the point of "who wants to translate shotty's post now?"

Drop the subject, and move on to other suspicious activities.

3

1

I'm not suggesting that there is a scum faking a post restriction.

2

This is what I'm talking about. There is probably at least one scum that has a post restriction. Three scum have flipped and none have had a post restriction. Therefore, one of the post restrictions is likely a member of the scum team.

3

Why would I drop the subject when you agree that there is likely a scum member identified in the pool of three.

ci sono solo 3 prs, non si assumono almeno uno è feccia. E 'un nulla dire.

[[TRANSLATED: there are only 3 prs, assume at least one is scum. And 'nothing to say.]]

Even chesskid agrees that one of the three post restricted people is scum. I think his appeal to logic here is an attempt to get us looking at the other post restricted people.

Lady Lambdadelta (post 411) - Maybe the daykiller is the SK.

smargaret (posts 413 and 421) - The fact that there are so few town deaths during the night (and the lack of multiple kills each night) suggests that there is not multiple scum factions unless they are terribly unlucky in targetting people that cannot die during the night or are not protected by some means. smargaret's push for the multiple scum team faction seems to be a little forced as all evidence suggests one scum team, and therefore a distraction.

FoS: smargaret

Can someone give me some bulletpoints on the BE lynch case?

xvart.

[xvart]

No. non quello che ho detto.

Ho detto che è un null raccontare.

In realtà

, dato che 3 feccia sono morti, è

improbabile

che uno dei restanti 2 prs è feccia

[[TRANSLATED: No, not what I said.

I said it's a null tell.

In reality, as dregs of 3 died, it is unlikely that one of the remaining 2 prs is scum]]

False statistical analysis. You are basing probability on occurrences that happened after the post restrictions were assigned.

xvart.

[xvart]

And you are basing analyses on modWIFOM. I'm not with it enough to actually work out the odds that one of the prs is scum, but can we put this line of thought on the backburner until you've read SWN 3 and read the argument there?

Once again, the discussion in SWNIII is irrelevant because the discussion is completely different. That discussion, as I recall, happened on D1 when nobody had flipped a post restriction and the discussion at that point was lynching post restrictions. Here we are talking about lynching post restrictions because there is probably at least one on the scum team. Since we have three scum flipped with no post restrictions, that leaves a pretty narrow margin for targeting. Here is what I do know:

There were no post restrictions of any alignment in SWN1 (I didn't read the game but there were no flips that showed a post restriction and I searched for "restricted" and "restriction" which yielded no results).

FeFiFoFum, who replaced MafiaSSK, who was a

Greek Mafia goon

turned

post-restricted Greek Mafia goon

, has been lynched on Day 2.

MafiaSSK, you are a Mafia post-restricted role cop.

Parama, you are a Mafia post-restricted goon.

---

Uh, no.
Suppose there are 20 players, 5 dregs, with 3 PR

assigned randomly

. The expected number of scum with PRS (3) (1 / 4) = 0.75.
The odds are: 0 PR scum: 15 * 14 * 13 / (20 * 19 * 18) = 40%
1 scum PR: 5 * (15 * 14 / 2) / (20 * 19 * 18 / 6) = 45%
2 PR scum (5 * 4 / 2) (15) / (20 * 19 * 18 / 6) = 13%
3 PR scum (5 * 4 * 3) / (20 * 19 * 18) = 1%

Now that we know that three are dead scum without PR and a PR dead, we have:
16 players, 2 scum, 2 PR randomly assigned:
Expected number of scum with PRS (2) (2 / 16) = 0.25
The odds are: 0 PR scum (14 * 13 / (16 * 15)) = 76%
1 PR scum (2 * 14) / (16 * 15 / 2) = 23%
2 PR scum (2 * 1) / (16 * 15) = 1%

Suck it.
I am a great mathematician. So how likely.

Okay, but your assumption that post restrictions are assigned randomly is based on what? Did SC tell you this? Did you see some invisible mod notes in one of the previous games? I would think with such thought put into the game and mod notes about roles in previous SWN games (including the halted SWNIII game) that there would be something, somewhere that said post restrictions were assigned randomly.

Again, what's the case on BE? I've read BE's ISO, read the pages before the lynch; I'm just not seeing what happened since the day start that suggests BE is scum that would not have been obvious yesterday and BE been the lynch yesterday.

xvart.

[xvart]

and because it is assumed that are not assigned at random?

You must have missed the part about me finding it suspect that SC would not include the randomized post restrictions in his moderator notes posted end game with all his other plethora of moderator notes.

Also, the point I was making about reverse statistics was that your example is perfectly fine, up until the point where you are doing the second set of statistics after the scum flips because it does not take into account that the data set is no longer random. Predicting probability on whether there is a post restriction after the flips has no bearing on there actually being a post restriction since

the post restrictions and roles have already been assigned

.

And why are you continuing to try to undermine me to defend yourself and not explaining the BE wagon which you are currently a member of; unless you don't know and are just shamelessly bandwagonning a wagon that everyone else bandwagonning.

xvart.

[xvart]

xvart, night happened.

Yes, that tends to happen; but I don't see anyone claiming some damning results on BE to indicate he performed the kill or got investigated sooooo it would appear to me that the current evidence is exactly the same as yesterday pre lynch, so why wasn't BE the alternative wagon when everyone decided to not lynch a claimed VT day one?

---

Since the BE case seemed to be too complex to explain in simple terms by anyone that was online and rapid posting, I went back and searched for the justifications for the people on the BE wagon at the end of day yesterday: Parama, Antihero, Framm18. I figured this would be a good starting point, since no evidence has been brought forth today that contributes as "additional" evidence to BE being scum. With all the frantic hopping on the BE wagon today, it makes me wonder why he wasn't lynched yesterday instead, since his case today is exactly what it was yesterday.

Parama

believes BE to be scum because of the wagon hop to LL (201). While not part of the original case, Parama did note that BE's vote on Baby Spice was a bus (274), that it is impossible for BE and BS to not be scum. Well, we know Baby Spices alignment, so pardon me while I disregard all of your alleged "scumhunting" and strong "case building" this game.

Antihero

believes BE to be scum because of his "Your vote relies on Espeonage being scum, which I don't think is the case (given NC's comments on him). Either that, or it relies on the premise of "lynch LLD because she claimed VT," which is a pretty flimsy argument to me." This is very intriguing because I don't see the implicit connection between his voting LL and his Espeonage comments, other than he comments on Espeonage's unvote and then votes in sequential order.

And then there is

Framm

, in his second post of the game (post 214)votes BE because he is aggressive and also for the VT claim.

Now if the case on BE happens to be so much more obvious than this weaksauce case someone is going to at least need to hint at a direction for me to find it. The fact that I've asked multiple times of people that are currently voting for BE is astounding, considering the case as I have found is hardly complex and can be summarized in one sentence. If I'm missing something, please, for the love of all that is holy, enlighten me.

I will say this once:

The fact that BE was for the LL lynch after her VT claim is a town tell in my book.

---

BE

- can you explain post 176?

Parama

(post 186) - I don't understand this post. Town claiming VT or scum fakeclaiming? Talk about a false dichotomy, as proven by the lynch flip. What was your intention with this post?

Parama

(post 284) - I agree with The Stove. What you are doing is not scumhunting. You are emulating a recognizable playstyle and making some passing comments. Unless you think that your vote of BE because he voted for LL after claiming VT qualifies as "scumhunting." Let me just tell you how thrilled I am that I am going to have to ask and demand and beg for explanations of read changes just like I do with Elli and Drippereth.

I'm thinking

Parama

is the SK.

While xvart's idea of exculsively lynching people with PRs is a bad one, I'm willing to bet there is scum among people with PRs (yes, I looked at your math, chesskid; while I do not doubt your skills as a mathematician, I disagree with your conclusion). Personally, my pick for post-restricted scum is manho.

So my idea to scumhunt from a pool of three people is a bad idea, yet you think there is scum inside that pool of three?

Google Translate made me sound arrogant, when all I actually said was that I was majoring in mathematics.
I also never said he could not be scum in people with pr, but treat it as nothing to say, otherwise it is likely to result in a misslynch down the road.

Finally, to avoid a quicklynch (since it is such as L-2 or something already)

Unvote [/ b]

Blue part translated to MS Terms:

"I am going to remove my vote and say it is to avoid a quick lynch, even though me and my partner (should he/she exist) would never draw attention to ourselves by quick lynching BE because we are already down three teammates on day 2, while the real reason is because xvart has made such a stink about the wagon and nobody can really explain why it is such a solid wagon, and since xvart has rightfully accused me of being scum, when BE flips town I'll be dead tomorrow."

xvart.

[xvart]

The case is outlined. Go read the thread.

Also, what's the case on CK3? Oh, you're just scum looking for an easy push on a PR based on math. How about this: Scumhunting > Math.

It's outlined? Really? Where? Also, I already posted what I believe the case on BE is, right above your post actually, so am I not correct? Second, I am not basing anything on MATHZ, but logic and simple observation. I'm not the one going ass deep in statistical analysis based on an unproven (and likely incorrect assumption).

> That means L-2 1 day on page 2 is a good idea.

Nice misrep. I should also add even if being at L-2 was bad on page 2, I'm not the one that built that wagon. You're the one that jumped ship because the wagon on your scum suspect was too big. Saying someone at L-2 is scary due to a quicklynch is just dumb. Three scum have been killed. If there is one mafia left it is impossible to coordinate a quick lynch. If there are two mafia left (and neither are on the wagon) it would be painfully stupid for them to quick lynch since they are already so far behind. If you had said an "accidental hammer" I might give you a little slack but still an accidental hammer is not likely at L-2, and even so, why do you care if he is your top scum pick?

Also, chesskid, you said earlier that I needed to use a better translator and I thought I responded but looked back and I didn't. I'm using the same translator you are.

And obviously I need to write walls to justify each of my town reads NO.

No, but you obviously are stating someone is town for a reason, so you better be able to back that up if questioned.

I was wrong on 1 and right on two, but being wrong on one lets you discredit all my other reads? Lolno.

No, but my point was when you post no substantial information about your reads, and one of your reads turns up wrong, I'm less likely to put a lot of stock into your reads and whatever alleged "scumhunting" you are doing to support those reads.

You can't read, obviously. It was a hypothetical question: Say player A is scummy, and player B is scummier. Both are pushed up to claim. Player A is a townie and he claims townie. Player B is scum and claims a power role. Wouldn't you rather lynch the fakeclaiming scum over the townie?

And in your hypothetical how is a town member to know that player B is scum fake claiming? That is a false dillema as the other option is the person being strung up could be town claiming the actual role he/she was given.

you major in maths too? then i think the PRs are not randomly assigned. SC just gave PR to maths students.
so let's have maths now.

As much as I love supporting evidence for the case I'm pushing, the statistics are not valid unless all the original assumptions are true; and the post restrictions have not been proven to be randomly assigned, and are most likely not randomly assigned (as I have explained in great detail).

No, you don't have to redo the math, the math is retarded and pointless. The fact that there was a 'post restricted cop' flip means that either there is a 'post restricted mafia' role or there isn't... 50% either way. If there is more than one scum PR, then it will become apparent as the game progresses... this whole 'lynch PR players instead of scum hunting' trend is retarded...

Not that I want to get into it, but your 50% chance of a scum post restriction is 100% bogus. I agree that statistical analysis should not be more important than scumhunting. Obviously scum hunting is the key; but with a narrower pool scumhunting becomes a little easier. Just look a chesskids behavior since I brought it up and how his entire defense he is pushing is based on something unproven and unlikely. Plus his jump off the wagon at L-2 on his top "suspect."

---

BE

- can you explain post 176?

OH MY FUCK! THIS ISN'T A HARD CONCEPT! CLAIMING VT IS SUCH AN EASY CLAIM FOR SCUM TO DO UNLESS IT IS A VANILLA-LESS GAME.... WHICH THIS ONE ISN'T. IT'S BETTER TO LYNCH SOMEONE THAT IS CLAIMING VT THEN TO DERAIL THAT LYNCH BASED ON A VANILLA CLAIM (UNLESS THE OTHER PLAYER PRETTY MUCH CLAIMED SCUM. HOW COME YOU PEOPLE CAN'T SEE THIS!

When reorganizing my post I split this part up. I wasn't asking for you to justify jumping off the wagon. I was asking if the comment about Espeonage was related to your vote. I also stated definitively that I think wanting to lynch the claimed VT is a town tell. Here was the original unorganized combination:

Antihero

believes BE to be scum because of his "Your vote relies on Espeonage being scum, which I don't think is the case (given NC's comments on him). Either that, or it relies on the premise of "lynch LLD because she claimed VT," which is a pretty flimsy argument to me." This is very intriguing because I don't see the implicit connection between his voting LL and his Espeonage comments, other than he comments on Espeonage's unvote and then votes in sequential order.

<snip>

BE

- can you explain post 176?

---

For now, can someone restate why BE is scum?

This is a worthless endeveor. I've asked several times but check my last post for what I think the case is. Stove says it is outlined somewhere, so if you find it let me know.

StrangerCoug: Can you tell us if the PRs are assigned randomly?

They are not.

OH NOEZ!

Not by chance, fuck math.

This is not scumhunt the PRS, this is scumhunt who is frothy. If we are a real problem then you can start vigging us one by one. 3 PR because they have political lynching PRS is the latest in anti-city attitudes.

Antihero was semi-tunneling on me the whole game, no one else noticed?
I am not "active lurking math" I'm fucking posting in Italian.

In reality, the fact that he does while he is voting for me to believe that BE is trying to set up another misslynch the guy who speaks Italian.

Vote: Antihero

Is antihero scummier than BE?

xvart.

[xvart]

Who said I posted no substantial information?

The Stove for one. Me for another.

But I completely agree with the sentiment. This whole "let's go down a lynch list lol" is fucking stupid.

I think my original post of today is being taken out of context. When I said let's lynch the post restrictions I didn't mean just throw a random dart and pick whoever it lands on. I was saying that we should look in that area, which I thought I demonstrated by hunting from that list based on the day one lynch wagon. From there, the scum sweat started oozing out of chesskids pours once he was busted. When we lynch chesskid and he flips scum we can debate whether or not there is another mafia and if there might be two post restricted scumbags. At that point, we'll have a lot more information to go on to help guide our decision.

Dear kids wanting Blooderection case,

Plz to be doing iso on Blooderection and posting results.

So when you said the case had already been outlined what you meant was do an ISO and figure it out yourself? Again, is what I put together correct or not? For people who are so convinced that BE is scum it sure takes pulling teeth to get a definitive answer or case. I know when I'm town and am trying to wagon obvious scum I'll do anything to get people on the wagon even if it means repeating myself a bazillion times. The problem tomorrow, pending chesskid getting lynched and if there is another mafia, is parsing out who is lazy town and who is mafia from that group.

Oh, and xvart, what do you think of this?

Unvote:
Vote: Baby Spice

I don't really think much of it. The wagon on LL had already dissolved and BE had made it abundantly clear that the move was lynching LL.

xvart.

[xvart]

Quick post to

Reckamonic:

Summary:

chesskid is scum. Since he is post restricted, you can read my posts (I only have about ten or so) as I translate most of them and respond to their scumminess. Skip the statistics babble, as it is only relevant in regards to chesskid using flawed and mod confirmed false logic to defend himself, as is documented in my posting.

Will respond to the other stuff later.

xvart.

[xvart]

not going to take it, so piss off.

Xvart has translated each of my post incorrectly. Faggot

What do you want me to do? I dont' speak Italian and I'm using the same translator you are using to translate your posts. Do you think I am intentionally changing your posts around in hopes that nobody will catch me with my clever way to make you scummy? Otherwise, copy and paste exactly what you posted in the Google translator and covert to English and compare them to my posts. Isn't that kind of the point of the language post restrictions and the challenge of communicating with them? Your name calling is certainly unnecessary.

But the biggest point that has not been translated incorrectly is that you were saying how the post restrictions were randomly assigned and therefore are not scum. Your defense was based on flawed premises. I'll have to go back and check, but as I can recall most of the things you have contested as being incorrectly translated have been relatively minor, so I'm not sure exactly what your goal is by blanket statement saying I'm translating your posts incorrectly.

xvart.

[xvart]

since all I have is accused of having a restriction POST, I do not have to defend myself.
Scumhunt the lynching of people with a PR is fucking bullshit. This is a damned nulltell, everything else is trying to guess the mod

You must have missed the countless times I have mentioned your defense of the randomized post restrictions being total crap, and now proven wrong. You were defending yourself with something that at the time you had no knowledge of the accuracy of the statement and everything was pointing to it being wrong. Then SC came in and said flat out that you were wrong. A defense of that nature is not a town defense. You are frustrated scum because you got caught when you don't think you should have been caught.

BTW, nobody has explained to me why the BS vote yesterday was OK (looking at xvart).

I have explained it. Here. Here. And here.

^totally awful vote

Not really, considering the context. He asked for direction in catching up; I was the only one that provided any sort of here is what he should be looking at. Opportunistic call out?

In post 543 Parama quotes a bunch of dead mafia and observes how they were obvmafia together from their posts, clears himself of being mafia because of simple questions about post restrictions since mafia would obviously know and admit to knowing post restrictions of their partners in post (not), makes a poor case on Tasky maybe being scum based on one comment by Nobody Special, and clears LLD of being scum. Probably trying to fake scumhunting (although there wasn't really much there either, just a lot of mafia quotes) since he has been called out for not scumhunting (never mind he questioned me when I said something, said that nobody else thought so, was proven wrong, and never said anything else about that). My guess is SKParama adopted this new playstyle emulating Elli to have a different flow to be harder to read. Parama - have you ever been a SK before?

Chesskid - I don't think you ever answered me when I asked if you thought Antihero was scummier than BE. If I did, just tell me the post number and I'll go look it up again. If not, please do.

xvart.

[xvart]

Yes xvart, see my sig. I play to my town meta as SK. I play to my town meta as mafia, too ^.^

You just aren't playing to your town meta this game because?

xvart.

[xvart]

Just found this post in my drafts on this game. Some of it I already covered again, but will post anyways:

Lol@ trying to save your brohan. The case is outlined. Go read the thread.

Also, what's the case on CK3? Oh, you're just scum looking for an easy push on a PR based on math. How about this: Scumhunting > Math.

BAM.

QED.

I just outlined what I think the case is. Would you like to confirm that I am correct in ascertaining what the case is? Am I missing anything? Want to link to the outline as already presented?

I'm not the one doing the maths. Chesskid is doing flawed math to defend himself. And I like how you are using buzzwords like "easy push" when apparently getting a lynch on chesskid is anything but easy since I'M THE ONLY PERSON ON THE WAGON and I've been taking heat for pressing this issue since my first post. So how is the chesskid wagon an easy push?

---

Non draft content:

I'm playing to my town meta. I mean, my role PM told me I was town, so I can't help but play to my town meta.

I'm sorry; I thought I remembered you specifically saying in your first list post that you were trying a different playstyle this game. You didn't. My bad.

I have explained it. Here. Here. And here.

Not satisfactorily. You pretty much dismissed it in your last one.

His vote on Baby Spice? I'll say I find it disappointing when people do not explain vote switches at all; but I don't find it a solid scumtell (as much as I wish it was, generally speaking). I think BE provided enough descent and disappointment at the VT not being lynched to make him town in my eyes. Scum wouldn't be motivated to push a VT lynch as it could easily be easily (depending on the player list) construed as "wanting to lynch a town member" and scum would be motivated to have an alternative wagon go up on someone else in hopes of snagging a PR or just allowing frantic vote switching to occur and maybe end up in a last minute frantic rush to lynch someone at the deadline. The only scum motivation I can think of is pushing the VT wagon after it dissipated is feeling the wagon on another town person was going to take over so he could continue to push on a wagon that wasn't going to flip town to buy town cred; but I don't believe this is the case since scum would try and avoid the attention, regardless of AtMD, and my first point still stands. If you need more clarification on my feelings let me know, but you'll need to be more specific.

I'm tempted to ask whoever it was that said BE will die tonight for more information, but I think that can probably wait until BE either dies or does not die tonight.

xvart.

[xvart]

Tasky - is your theory a one time thing?

xvart.

[xvart]

I am not telling. That's something scum should not know.

mkay. But in none of your posts do you suggest that his flip is going to be scum. This is starting to sound very third party-ish to me.

---

Also, unless your vote is some joke, you got M=W's name wrong, so you're not paying attention.

Oh, so you weren't paying attention.

+a couple scumpoints for you

+a few scumpoints for you for making the most inconsequential thing into suspicion.

xvart.

[xvart]

VOTE: BE

I find him the scummiest out of everybody. Him having stopped defending himself has not helped to change that opinion.

I think that it is L-1 now.

I still don't understand and nobody has explained the disconnect as to why BE wasn't wagonned and lynched yesterday instead of Baby Spice. At the start of today, everyone jumped out and said "obvscum" and "BE is the lynch" with no obvious evidence that made him scummier from the end of D1 to the beginning of D2. Everyone that is voting BE, why weren't you voting him yesterday?

xvart.

[xvart]

Sorry, everyone who voted for Baby Spice and is now voting BE.

xvart.

[xvart]

Let me be more specific:

The Stove

- why did you not vote BE yesterday instead of Baby Spice? What changed overnight that made you insta vote BE without further evidence or justification?

LL

- why did you not vote BE yesterday instead of Baby Spice? What changed overnight that made you insta vote BE without further evidence or justification (other than your "amazing scum hunting skills)?

xvart.

[xvart]

Actually, yeah, if someone wants to vig us... probably a good decision, because we're never going to fully be caught up, and we don't want to be a mislynch target.

If you're not playing, please replace out.

But...we are playing.
We're just not going to catch up because it seems fairly pointless considering

scum got massacred

.
We can iso the dead scumbags and see what we come up with, though.

I did that when I replaced in. There was pretty much nothing in the dead scumbags ISOes worth noting.

xvart.

[xvart]

the last time I made a post like this I was scum.

FoS: smargaret

As I recall, I think I made some points against smargaret a while back. Let me go back and check, but I am pretty sure I could swing for a smargaret lynch today in the unfortunate event that chesskid is not hanging from the gallows.

xvart.

[xvart]

I retract my previous statement about smargaret. I went back and looked and the only thing I really mentioned concerning smargaret was about her speculation about there being two scum teams when all evidence suggests otherwise. I don't think that is lynch worthy at this juncture. I thought I had made some other comments that I thought were scummy.

BE was scummy, but I don't feel like writing out why. mothrax hasn't helped the slot, so can someone make a good case for me to sheep off of?

Tasky: Why do you want to lynch me? So far, it's seemed like you're just attacking me because I attacked you.

Congrats, Me=Weird, for the single scummiest post of the game. You say BE was scummy but you don't feel like writing out why (I see a trend developing here of nobody wanting to actually talk about why BE is scummy). And then you ask for a good case to sheep off of? How does this make any sense? Why not use your original justification for the slot being scummy? You need to sheep a vote because you have a case but are too lazy to write it?

Yeah! Let's just use a PERSONAL META to determine a lynch, with no other cause or justification!



Don't make me laugh. The non-existance case against smargret is almost as transparent as you are.

Do we have any OTHER takers? Anyone ELSE want to make a lynch suggestion before we continue to lynch mothrax?

What do you mean, personal meta? What is transparent about me?

Order matters yes. AGar and I more-or-less agree on the placement of all of these.

As in, you are most confident about your reads at the top of their respective lists? Why are you voting for the person on your scum list that you are less confident than everyone else on your scum list?

xvart.

[xvart]

The BE wagon was highly scum driven (as is explained below), and if there are two mafia members left I wouldn't be surprised if both of them were on the wagon.

The Stove

Again, what's the case on BE? I've read BE's ISO, read the pages before the lynch; I'm just not seeing what happened since the day start that suggests BE is scum that would not have been obvious yesterday and BE been the lynch yesterday.

xvart.

Lol@ trying to save your brohan. The case is outlined. Go read the thread.

Dear kids wanting Blooderection case,

Plz to be doing iso on Blooderection and posting results.

And since he supposedly is super scummy, how hard is it to say why?

Do an iso on them real quick and tell me what you think.

It's pretty obvious based on these three posts that The Stove had no real clue why BE was scummy and was pushing a bullshit case. First, they say the case is outlined but won't bother to point it out. I asked several times and made some assumptions and asked if I was correct on why BE was scummy. The response? ISO THE SCUMZ. If that isn't obvious scumtactics I don't know what is. Furthermore,

the fact that every single person that replaced in after me asked what the BE case was and couldn't see it should have told everyone something

.

Since repeatedly asking and sparring with The Stove over the legitimacy of the BE case I finally got an answer (if you can call it that) to their motivations behind voting for BE when I asked this:

Let me be more specific:

The Stove

- why did you not vote BE yesterday instead of Baby Spice? What changed overnight that made you insta vote BE without further evidence or justification?

LL

- why did you not vote BE yesterday instead of Baby Spice? What changed overnight that made you insta vote BE without further evidence or justification (other than your "amazing scum hunting skills)?

xvart.

They said this:

why did you not vote BE yesterday instead of Baby Spice? What changed overnight that made you insta vote BE without further evidence or justification?

Now, see, this is silly. And it's why you're scum good sir.

Obviously AGar and I knocked heads together and came up with a scum list, which had

Baby Spice
Blooderection

At the top of it. (you're up there now too, congrats) It's not like we never said we'd like to see BE dead, btw.

What kind of answer is this? Also, I am apparently on this scum list for an unknown reason.

There is also LL who ignored my questions about her lynch preferences, and I need to reread her. I will try and get to that tomorrow. smargaret will get a look through as well.

smarg

- regarding your post (linked): what happened overnight that made it obvious that BE should have been the lynch the day before?

I also want to highlight chesskid and his lurking towards the end of yesterday after I put a bunch of heat on him. More coming on him, too. Like I said before, it is likely both scum were on that wagon, but chesskid wasn't. However, he was in on it when it was going full force with everyone saying "obv scum" towards the beginning of the day. Then he bailed.

My premature guess, and we'll see if this holds true after I reread LL and smargaret, is chesskid and The Stove as two mafia members.

xvart.

[xvart]

As might be scum like Espeonage, (he was happy to go into mathematics PR thing with me), and call it wishful thinking, but if he turns scum, the chances of me being scum down. If he runs the city, the chances of me being scum still go down.

Wanting to lynch someone that makes you more likely town regardless of that persons flip? Last I checked, unfortunately, nobody else thinks you are scummy besides me, so what is the point of trying to lynch someone to prove you are not scum? Still a little worried that I hit the nail a little close to the head yesterday?

Reading chesskid's ISO is useless. But he posts a lot, and he has long posts. That's a terrible person to count someone as town, I know, but there's no way in hell I'm translating his entire ISO just to get a read on him.

Read my ISO and you'll see why chesskid is scummy.

xvart

What kind of answer is this? Also, I am apparently on this scum list for an unknown reason.

It's a damn good one. State your issue with it. I'm sick of the vague generalities ITT. Also lol@worrying about your place on our list.

lol? Apparently you have a pretty broad definition of "worrying." I've now learned I have to be explicitly clear, but my comment about me making your scum list was because you seemed to blanket statement say I was scum just because I asked you about your priority/preference list. Explain to me my scum motivation for asking the questions I did. You obviously had (and still have) a terrible time justifying the BE lynch, as is evidenced by me repeatedly asking you what the case was. What did you say?

• The case has already been outlined.
  Then I questioned you about the outlined cases location and asked you if what I pulled together was accurate. What did you say?
  Go ISO him.
  I asked again, was my interpretation of the case correct?
  No answer.

The fact that I know you were just riding the wagon with no clue of why it was happening is I even put together what I believed the case to be, asked you about it, twice, and you never responded, saying "yes, that's it" or "no, that is not it."

Let me ask some specific questions:

1. Is chronopie scum because he couldn't find a case on BE upon replacing in yesterday?
   
2. Were you intentionally lying when you said the BE case had already been outlined? If not, why did you say it when it had not been outlined?
   
3. Was the case on BE so complicated that you couldn't possibly sum it up in a couple of sentences?
   
4. Was my case that I put together correct or not? Regardless of the answer, why didn't you bother to answer me when I asked a couple of times? It seems if you are confident in your lynch target you would want to rally the troops to get a lynch, and the fact that you really did not say anything about BE at all is very telling.

If you're town the answer the damn questions asked of you in the game.

This quote is especially ironic considering they have been dodging my questions all game. So, by your logic, are you not town since you haven't been "answer[ing] the damn questions asked of you in the game"?

No, but a town read nonetheless. Yes, I think I would rather stick my finger in a pencil sharpener than try to convince xvart of anything, but I don't see any scum motivation for what he's saying.

Nice. How is this for town motivation: may I suggest the town stop being so damn lazy and stop following along the people that say the lynches are obvious but can't formulate a case and keep lynching town?

As for manho, I'll add him to my list to read, but I still think chesskid is the post restricted mafia. I will say that trying to convince me of someone being scum will be slightly easier if they have a post restriction.

I'd like to hear thoughts on xvart or esp.

You obviously have an opinion if you are asking this question, so what are your thoughts on me?

VOTE: The Stove

I'm still willing to lynch chesskid, as his post I quoted at the top is especially scummy, and couple that with his behavior yesterday. The Stove or chesskid. Either way we profit.

xvart.

[xvart]

Huh. Upon rereading, xvart has the defense of BE, which gives him town points, and some rolefishing/pointless post restriction discussion/my own private reason which give him scum points. Leaning scum, but probably not a good choice for today.

EBWOP: The last post was goodposting. Read changes to null.

I want to clarify that I don't think I ever actually defended BE. I was trying to point out that the case on BE was non existent at best and bat shit crazy at worst. Also, were you responding to my post right above yours asking you what you thought of me?

Hey xvart, when did you start ignoring me? You really wanted me dead yesterday IIRC.

Well, my suspicions of you were fairly circumstantial and not really a formulated case and you clarified one of my concerns when you said you were playing to your town meta so I went back and checked and had misremembered something from your first post. Regardless, I have bigger fish to fry with solid scumtells. Don't worry, if you're scum, I'll come back around to you.

xvart.

[xvart]

@SC - I voted The Stove in 861.

xvart, your vote is so full of fail, it's almost poetic.

1

And I don't know why you think you're alone with your suspicion of chesskid.

2

Oh, and xvart, your dickish attitude is completely unwarranted; I summarized my reasoning for my BE suspicion, and you failed to acknowledge it.

3

1

Why?

2

You're right. There has been some other suspicion cast, although I probably should have said more vocal opposition to chesskid. I guess I misremembered the number of people that actually voted him yesterday as I was starting to feel like the kid in class who raises his hand but everyone hopes the teacher doesn't call on. You know, the crazy uncle that nobody listens to. But the point still stands that chesskid, at the time of that post, was in no danger of being lynched, and it is still highly suspect that he wants to lynch someone regardless of flip alignment to make him more town.

3

I think the part of my post you are referring to was after a quote of yours. I was speaking to everyone, so my apologies if you thought my frustration was directed at you and you alone. Was the reasoning you were referring to this post? Because interestingly enough, if it is, you justified your previous vote ("I concur, vote BE") while jumping off the wagon... After I had been harping on trying to get the case for quite a while. So my point still stands, even though you gave your reasoning.

xvart said you did, I'm not invested enough right now to go look it up. This is me playing while cutting out endless numbers of save the dates and addressing an equally endless number of envelopes.

To clarify, it was a round robin of questioning his newly adopted list playstyle and I asked him why he wasn't playing to his town meta or something like that. Parama responded back that he always plays to his town meta, or something like that. It wasn't really Parama who brought it up, to the best of my recollection. (and props to the homemade wedding invitations (I think?). We did the same thing. Money saving = win).

M=W: I don't really want to lynch obvious town, so Tasky isn't gonna be a valid lynch ever.

The only problem I have with this is that Tasky had information (unverified due to the lynch) that indicated a town aligned player was going to die. Something about that just doesn't seem right to me. Something to consider as we move forward.

xvart.

[xvart]

I dunno. I need to talk this over with AGar I guess. Does the town in general have any desire to see a Parama wagon?

I wouldn't be against it, but as I told him, I have other fish to fry.

Re: xvart in Post 429 (P18) - second-guessing whether the mod has put all restrictions on one side or not is a really bad idea in bastard mod games, and should be avoided. Judge them on their behaviour, and all alike, not on their posting restriction. Having said that, I will now completely contradict myself and admit I would be entirely unsurprised by the guy speaking Italian being a Mafioso.

I was judging chesskid on his behavior; after the fact. I placed my vote on a post restricted person purely based on vote location on the previous days wagon. Then he went all scum mode and scummy defense and that is why I continued to push his lynch.

Somewhere in that wall of text I think you said something about PZ calling for vig shots and vig bait... I remember one of those vig shots being Nobody Special and he flipped scum. Does anyone have some meta background on PZ if he likes to call for his scum pals vigs as scum? It seems like an easy way to bus your partner with no likely ramifications of it actually happening. I'll have to go back and see if they had said anything about NS prior to the vig bait claim.

I'll also let AGar explain the BE case bit.

Good. I can't wait.

We haven't intentionally lied about anything, so no. Again, I'll let AGar address this.

So you unintentionally said there was a outlined case somewhere when there wasn't?

It seems if you are confident in your lynch target you would want to rally the troops to get a lynch, and the fact that you really did not say anything about BE at all is very telling.

lol wow. I'm gonna let you go back and correct yourself on this one.

My apologies. When I said "you really did not say anything about BE" I meant "you didn't really say anything of substance". Better?

The case on BE, and on several of the players in this game, is that they aren't doing anything. If I help lynch all the lurkers, and the VIs, and the people not paying attention, and the people not trying, then I'm either going to hit scum or I'm going to get rid of dead weight. Either way, when the game comes down to the wire, the town is in a far better position to win. BE, and espeonage, and LLD, and Tasky, and Toon Fighter, and manho and etc fit this bill. (you're being actively destructive, there's a difference)

But this doesn't really match what you've been saying. In fact, nothing in your posts suggests that this was the case. You rattle off the BE needs to die, NAO, something about BE revving up the diesel bus, his stated connection between you and LLD, and a few other things of no particular substance or note. And if the case on BE is that he wasn't contributing, why do you need to wait for Agar to comment about it? The fact that you backpeddaled on your outlined case of BE by telling me to ISO BE means that his scumminess was in his ISO; but you now say it was because of his lack of contribution?

Your case? You didn't put together a case. You regurgitated some posts from other players.

No shit. I've said that a half dozen times. Let me jog your memory: I pulled together why people were voting for BE (and I said as much). Then I asked everyone (and you specifically at least twice), if that those reasonings were the jist of the case on BE. I never claimed it was MY case, and the fact that I wasn't supporting the wagon should further establish that it wasn't my case, because I don't think I have ever put together a case and not followed up with a vote or an intention to vote. Way to mince words, though.

xvart.

[xvart]

I can't believe you are even engaging me in this discussion, The Stove.

My apologies. When I said "you really did not say anything about BE" I meant "you didn't really say anything of substance". Better?

Lawl backtrack.

You are seriously trying to call that a backtrack? They are essentially the exact same thing but the second has a little more to it because I didn't realize you used semantics and such literal meanings in an attempt to defend yourself.

ORLY? I have gone through your ISO and quoted every mention or pseudo mention or reference to BE.

The lines in blue are where you directly said something about BE and your desire for him to be dead (or why he might be scummy in the few instances)

.

The lines in red are you talking about the case on BE, and note how it changes.

If I missed something please let me know.

TL;DR version:

Specific mentions about BE:

1. OMG BLOODERECTION NEEDS TO DIE NAO.
   
2. Are you incapable of reading English, good sir? Because if I do recall, you are a scholar and a gentleman. (speaking to BE)
   
3. Hey look, BE filled up the diesel tank and he's roaring in that big ol' yellow bus.
   
4. vote: Blooderection
   
5. BE has 6 votes.
   
6. came up with a scum list, which had... Blooderection
   
7. It's not like we never said we'd like to see BE dead, btw.

Saying someone needs to die does not really qualify as substantive posting. You never said anything of substance about why BE was scummy.

Talking about the case on BE

1. The case is outlined. Go read the thread.
   
2. Plz to be doing iso on Blooderection and posting results.
   
3. Obviously AGar and I knocked heads together (talking about their case on BE)
   
4. I'll also let AGar explain the BE case bit.
   
5. Again, I'll let AGar address this.
   
6. The case on BE, and on several of the players in this game, is that they aren't doing anything.

So... you said their was a case on BE (which apparently later turned out to just be that he wasn't contributing), then said to ISO to discover why BE was scummy, you knocked heads to determine that BE was scummy (how much head knocking does it take to think someone is scummy based on lack of contributions?), then you finally say he needed to die because he wasn't contributing. That, my friend, is a Lawl backtrack.

Spoiler:

The Stove Quotes about BE

OMG BLOODERECTION NEEDS TO DIE NAO.

Sorry that i'm voting for your scumbuddy.

Really?

Really?

Okay, I'll play. I'll take "The Stove / Greek Chick Links" for $200, Alex.

I unvoted, and I don't think we should not lynch LLD because of the VT claim. I don't think we should lynch LLD because a few of her wagoners are really scummy, including you.

There's no one who doesn't want to lynch LLD because of the VT claim. Now you're just pulling stuff out of thin air.

VOTE: Blooderection

So why exactly did you unvote then? because of people jumping on the wagon? Specifically me?

Are you incapable of reading English, good sir? Because if I do recall, you are a scholar and a gentleman.

Hey look, BE filled up the diesel tank and he's roaring in that big ol' yellow bus.

DEAR SCUMZ

If you want to gg right now it's cool with us.

vote: Blooderection

BE has 6 votes

. CK3 has 1. Tasky has 1. It should be 9 to lynch. 16 alive.

Moar BE votes while Papa Ziti and I discuss the events.

Again, what's the case on BE? I've read BE's ISO, read the pages before the lynch; I'm just not seeing what happened since the day start that suggests BE is scum that would not have been obvious yesterday and BE been the lynch yesterday.

xvart.

Lol@ trying to save your brohan.

The case is outlined. Go read the thread.

Dear kids wanting Blooderection case,

Plz to be doing iso on Blooderection and posting results

.


Love,

PZ

And since he supposedly is super scummy, how hard is it to say why?

Do an iso on them real quick and tell me what you think.

why did you not vote BE yesterday instead of Baby Spice? What changed overnight that made you insta vote BE without further evidence or justification?

Now, see, this is silly. And it's why you're scum good sir.

Obviously AGar and I knocked heads together

and

came up with a scum list

, which had

Baby Spice

Blooderection

At the top of it. (you're up there now too, congrats)

It's not like we never said we'd like to see BE dead, btw.

Explain to me my scum motivation for asking the questions I did.

I'll explain things when I want a wagon on you. Which will come, no worries.

I'll also let AGar explain the BE case bit.

Were you intentionally lying when you said the BE case had already been outlined? If not, why did you say it when it had not been outlined?

We haven't intentionally lied about anything, so no.

Again, I'll let AGar address this.

Was the case on BE so complicated that you couldn't possibly sum it up in a couple of sentences?

The case on BE, and on several of the players in this game, is that they aren't doing anything

. If I help lynch all the lurkers, and the VIs, and the people not paying attention, and the people not trying, then I'm either going to hit scum or I'm going to get rid of dead weight. Either way, when the game comes down to the wire, the town is in a far better position to win. BE, and espeonage, and LLD, and Tasky, and Toon Fighter, and manho and etc fit this bill. (you're being actively destructive, there's a difference)

So despite your little semantical argument, you have not really said anything about BE

AND

you have not said anything of substance about BE.

And the funny part (I've mentioned this once before), is this gem of a quote:

3. The fail is strong with this one. I'm afraid it's hard for me to "poo-poo" (lol) your responses when you aren't giving any.

Let's, once again, list the questions you've refused to answer:

So since you were alluding to someone being scummy by not answering questions, does that make your refusal to answer my questions a legitimate scum tell?

xvart.

[xvart]

Sorry everyone for getting ejected. I felt really bad for SC having to find another replacement. I'm glad Fate picked up where I left off (even though my reads were way off) so there was some continuity of the player slot.

Props to Antihero. Ace shooting.

xvart.