Last Will Mafia II (Over)

[Kmd4390]

Hold up. What one-shot doc power?

[Kmd4390]

Batt, I've been far too busy to finish the analysis. It is a lot more time consuming than I expected. What makes Diacria/Michel/Xite more likely to be NK'd than the chance that they were right about their suspicions? Especially Xite. Answer that and I'll consider factoring it in. I haven't done an analysis of yesterday's lynch. Just a quick glance. All I'm saying is that I doubt every scum bussed, so there must be scum who didn't vote Chro. I didn't list "bussers" because it wasn't a full "based in this wagon, here is a guaranteed failproof list of the scum". It was a statement that at least one, if not most of, the scum can be found off the wagon. Also, I think I've sheeped Charlie more than he's sheeped me so that bit is pretty amusing. Plum being a counterwagon to a scum lynch doesn't make me suspect her, it reinforces my town read. I'm "focusing" on you over Ythan and Rhinox because you are my most confident scum read. I get less and less confident on the other two as the game progresses. Ythan definitely shouldn't live to endgame though. But if he is scum, his votes won't go to an ideal townie, so there's no point lynching him just to move his votes. Also, you don't know my scum game at all. I don't look at what "benefits" scum. If anything, I do what would benefit town if I was town. When I'm scum, I usually get halfway through a post before I remember that I am scum. I haven't read past that post, but if Fish protected someone, they were probably the kill target, which is why there was no kill.

On the NKA TM, how is using a different method to find scum when mine has obviously failed not helpful for town? Ok, maybe I'm not doing it how you would. But it's new to me.

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Plum, ok.

Vote Batt x2

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Back to Batt, no. It doesn't assume that the same person chose each kill (which isn't even a bad assumption. One scum's opinions being dominant isn't uncommon). It's a point system to show which players (that is with an s at the end) were most widely suspected by the NK'd players.

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Fish not telling us who he protected is fine. If the person comes near a lynch, he can tell us. If not, even if Fish dies, we know that it was either the person who gets Fish's vote or someone who is already dead. For today, this is fine, but it may be a good idea to tell us at the very least whether or not players who die were who he protected. For example, let's say we lynch Batt and I die tonight. Fish should tell the town if he protected Batt before he is lynched or if he protected me the next day. If Fish is lynched, he should claim it before he dies. If Fish is NK'd, we know that either the person lynched (assume Batt) or the person who gets Fish's vote was protected. But we'd know it's not Batt because we should ask Fish before we lynch Batt.

Ok, it probably looks like typing in circles, but it helped me understand that basically it's ok for Fish not to claim his target for now as long as Fish gives us a yes/no ASAP on each death.

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Batt, why are you assuming I was targeted last night? Oh yeah, scumknozthis.

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Esurio (post 2378), you're going to have to explain those reads because I disagree with most.

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GUYS, FISH IS IN THE SAME BOAT AS YTHAN WAS WITH THE MILLAR KILL. IT WAS AN INVENTION GIVEN TO HIM AND SAYS NOTHING ABOUT HIS ALIGNMENT

. It's possible that scum no-killed so that Fish could claim something. It's possible that it wasn't even a doc-protect that he got. Maybe he still has another unused kill or something (unlikely, but possible). We don't know enough about this to be all "Fish is obvtown cuz he claimed doc-protect HURHURHUR".

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Rhinox, why can't Fish have bussed Chro? And as much as I appreciate being excluded there, why not me? Hate to say it, but you and Locke also get townpoints... And why is Holy more likely scum who bussed than Batt or Charlie scum who didn't?

Thridly is the power of wifom. Leaving players alive that you think should have been nked by now makes town suspect them more. I suspect Ythan more because he hasn't been nked,

but I can't lynch him for that.

To the bolded, why not?

[Kmd4390]

Maybe Fish is scum who protected someone from a second scum group's kill. This would support my even/odd kill theory.

Again, I appreciate the town read, but it's for the wrong reasons. I use VCA TM regardless of alignment and put in just as much effort as scum as I do as town.

Fair enough on the holy vote.

too wifomy

*Sigh*

Not wasting my breath.

[Kmd4390]

Charlie has a point.

[Kmd4390]

Rhinox, if you didn't know what a ninja was, what exactly made you guess it was a 1-shot extra kill specifically?

[Kmd4390]

viewtopic.php?p=2581402#p2581402

viewtopic.php?p=2583329#p2583329

[Kmd4390]

Batt, the main thing that concerns me on you lately is the way you speak with certainty. I mean, saying "X is scum and needs to die" is one thing, and I do it plenty. But when you say things like "100% sure" and "if they flip scum, and they will" etc, it sounds like you aren't even willing to consider any other possibility. Town should be open to the chance that they are wrong. Scum already knows whether they are right or wrong, so they really can't be convinced which is hard (though not impossible) to hide. It looks like you are having a hard time hiding it. Even if you don't consider this for this game, take it as constructive criticism for your future scum games.

[Kmd4390]

I don't read games I'm not in.

[Kmd4390]

I don't.

If I want to prove a specific point, I'll show it myself if I think it is important enough. I don't expect people to go through an entire game for meta though.

If people ask for links, I'll provide them. What I won't do is say "go read this entire game and you'll know how I play". It's just not worth the time.

I may be biased because it takes me so long to read though.

[Kmd4390]

I can't think of a scum advantage in Rhinox's posts for not knowing, or pretending to not know what a ninja role does. So the issue seems unimportant to me.

It's not about scum advantage's.

Or even pretending not to know anything.

I want his answer before I explain.

[Kmd4390]

=(

[Kmd4390]

Rhinox, I don't see how unknown ability = "Oh, must be an extra kill".

[Kmd4390]

Rhinox's assumption seems like an unrealistic jump to me.

I don't believe my original theory is correct though.

Expected Town reaction: "Oh, he was a ninja. Wonder what that is" or "Oh, he was a ninja. I saw that role before."
Expected Scum reaction: "Oh, my scumbuddy died and hasn't used his extra kill yet." <Insert post that knows that a ninja is a role who has an extra kill>
Rhinox's reaction: "Oh, looks like Chro was 'one-shot'. Must have had an extra kill"

Looks to me like Rhinox wasn't focusing on the ninja part. I actually see Rhinox as either town or non-Columbian non-town because of this. Looks like he honestly overlooked "ninja" being part of the role and jumped to a conclusion on "one-shot".

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I see people talking about a Holy lynch, but not many votes. I'd obviously prefer Batt, but a Holy lynch is better than a Plum lynch.

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Plum is at L-6. If Ythan plans to vote Plum, she should probably claim. Ythan should confirm/deny first though.

[Kmd4390]

How are they linked?

[Kmd4390]

Ok.

[Kmd4390]

Ythan, Plum-claim? Yes/no?

[Kmd4390]

Unvote, Vote Plum x2

to secure a lynch.

[Kmd4390]

By the way, yes, I know we don't need majority. I just want to lessen the chances of a tie and I realize Batt isn't being lynched.

[Kmd4390]

So Jahudo was protected on the same night that there wasn't a kill. The fact that Fish died as a bodyguard and passed his vote to Jahudo means that there is a very good chance scum went after Jahudo again last night.

I won't be voting Jahudo any time soon.

[Kmd4390]

After looking at locke's last post, one of batt, rhinox, or holy is definitely scum. Maybe two of them. Chro wouldn't leave all of his buddies off that list and locke wouldn't point it out as chros buddy.

[Kmd4390]

Hmm. If Ythan is scum, 4-5 scum could definitely quicklynch soon. I'd support massclaim.

[Kmd4390]

I assume Nacho is against massclaim and feels strongly enough about it to go completely against it by voting already?

[Kmd4390]

Why vote if you support massclaim?

[Kmd4390]

Charlie, that was more wanting you to explain your stance on fish than anything else. Basically, I'm open to the chance that I am wrong.

I agree about even/odd NKs or something similar going on. Even in that case though, fish likely protected jahudo both nights and that would mean both scum groups tried killing him. He's still town.

[Kmd4390]

kmd, you've said some pretty obvious things in your last post. Were you planning on contributing anything, or...?

Meh. I was kinda waiting until we decided on massclaim, but yeah, on Day 7 of a mafia game it gets pretty hard to come up with anything new without many scum flips. My opinions are pretty clear, so I don't really know what I can add.

Actually, some of my opinions might not be so clear because I've started to doubt myself on some of them.

Here:

Confident town reads

Kmd
Jahudo
Nacho

Not as confident town reads

Locke
Esurio
holy

Waiting to commit to a read, don't ask why or I'll ignore you

Charlie

Which leaves the following as scum

kunk
Rhinox
Ythan
Batt

Because I haven't been NK'd, I expect that there are more scum in my less confident town reads than in my scum reads. Esurio and holy as scum makes sense by that logic because I called Locke scum earlier.

Charlie, that was more wanting you to explain your stance on fish than anything else. Basically, I'm open to the chance that I am wrong.

Oh.

Uh...

Could this be answered?

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Locke, no, I didn't think of that for a reason for scum to kill. Someone should look at Xite's town reads because I still think that kill was a weird one.

[Kmd4390]

Rhinox, yeah that makes sense. Nacho is mostly a gut read combined with a vote he made earlier (I think it was actually the Chro vote). I could be wrong I guess though. I'd probably lynch Holy before Nacho, but yeah. I can see it.

I don't at all believe in a Nacho/Rhinox pair.

[Kmd4390]

@KMD, Rhinox, Jahudo, Batt, esurio, Nacho, Locke, kunk, holy: Does the recent exchange between myself and Ythan look like bickering?

Yes.

Do you perceive my replies as "whining"?

No.

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I'm half tempted to say we should just do everything Nacho says. I like his post (2571) a lot.

Vote Batt x2

. Let's do this today.

[Kmd4390]

I'm gonna come up with this idea where my scumbuddy gets to pass his votes to one of us scumz who is playing better, but then disagree with it so I can say I didn't like the idea. Whudduyallthink?

Abriged for people on the go.

[Kmd4390]

Ythan, id definitely still be up for a kunk lynch.

[Kmd4390]

Amished's vote record made him obvscum in my eyes. I don't remember more specifically than that and I am currently posting from my phone so I can't throw fancy quotes and colors at you.

[Kmd4390]

What question can you quote it for me I didn't see u ask me anything

Haha, calling me a VI. That's really odd from my POV, but I have a pressing issue that I would be happy if you would answer:

why the lack of posting in this game?

[Kmd4390]

[Kmd4390]

Ythan, I'll go back and dig up the Amished stuff when I have a decent amount of free time and a computer in front of me. Don't expect that to be too soon.

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Charlie, definition of VI - Player who pretty much just flat out sucks at the game, is incompetent, and most likely has no hope at learning. Can be either alignment.

I don't think anyone who is currently alive in this game falls under the description of "VI".

[Kmd4390]

Sweet! I could put Batt to L-3 by myself if I wanted to.

LOL.

Nah, I'm gonna hold my votes til we are ready to string someone up.

What does everyone think about massclaiming today? We have to be pretty close to LYLO if not there already.

[Kmd4390]

Meh, was gonna suggest something else, but just realized it's a bad idea. Popcorn is fine if everyone agrees to massclaiming.

[Kmd4390]

What exactly does your role do? And have you used it yet?

[Kmd4390]

What exactly does your role do?

[Kmd4390]

I've never seen the role before.

Would it be acceptable during a roleclaim to just say "I'm a mailman" or whatever else it could be without giving the details?

Fullclaim now.

[Kmd4390]

Ok, got what I wanted.

FYI, I already looked it up on the wiki before I asked. I wanted YOU to explain what the role does in THIS game. The fact that you go to the wiki rather than your Role PM to answer my question is pretty telling. I personally can not see any way that Llama wouldn't have been clear enough in the Role PM that you'd have to ask him that question or that you wouldn't have already asked BEFORE DAY 8.

[Kmd4390]

Nilla.

[Kmd4390]

Claim.

[Kmd4390]

Yeah, Ythan is basically a bodyguard that doesn't even have to choose who to protect. We have no living power roles. Problem is, he has a shit ton of votes. Unless there is someone who we are confident is town (not me or all scum need to do to win is get my votes), him dying as town wouldn't exactly be a good thing.

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Batt, if you are being intentionally dense, stop now. It's not helping.

[Kmd4390]

Pretty sure it just means that if he decides to use it and the scum decide to kill, he dies. I can't say for sure because he refuses to fullclaim.

[Kmd4390]

Guys.

We have several scum left to lynch.

I propose the following:

-Lynch Batt today
-Ythan uses his ability tonight
-If Ythan dies, we know he was town and won't waste a lynch on him
-If someone other than Ythan dies, we lynch him.
-If no one dies, well, we just escaped a townie death and we'll worry about tomorrow tomorrow.

This forces Ythan to use his ability if he is town because if he doesn't, we'll lynch him and probably lose the game. So he'd have to be retarded not to use it. Also if he's town, we won't waste a lynch on him because he will be NK'd. If he's scum, we'll catch him this way. At worst, we get a free lynch without having to worry about a NK which is far from being a bad thing.

Vote Batt

[Kmd4390]

Unvote

to let everyone discuss.

[Kmd4390]

Dammit! Lost my post.

Ok lemme try that again.

There are several scum left in this game. If Ythan is town and cooperates (Ythan, I hope you realize you are dying either way and if you are town it's more helpful to use your ability than to be mislynched), he gets NK'd. Sure, we have to be right with today's lynch. This is true whether we lynch Ythan or someone else. And TBQH, Ythan hasn't been at the top of my list throughout the game. If it weren't for his 6 votes and his claim, I don't think he'd be such a hot topic of discussion. I'm more confident lynching Batt or Kunk today.

THERE IS NO MORE WAITING FOR CONFIRMATION OF ROLES. THAT DAY HAS COME AND GONE A WHILE AGO. IF WE TRY AND CONFIRM YTHAN, THEN TOWN LOSES. IF YOU DO NOT BELIEVE YTHAN'S CLAIMS, YOU MUST LYNCH HIM. IF NOT, YOU TRY AND FIND SCUM ELSEWHERE. THERE IS NO "WAIT AND SEE" WITH YTHAN. IT'S IS HE SCUM OR IS HE TOWN, NO MIDDLE GROUND. NO WAITING FOR CONFIRMATION.

If there was only one scum, I'd agree with your fancy "OMG CAPS LOOK AT ME I MUST BE TOWN CUZ I CARE THIIIIIISSSSS MUCH".

[Kmd4390]

Lynching ythan today makes no sense. Also I'm at xite's house and she says hi.

[Kmd4390]

What about Kunk?

[Kmd4390]

Rhinox, the case mostly comes from Amished. And his Holy vote looks panicked. If Kunk is scum, I think Holy is town. I think Kunk is scum, so a Holy lynch wouldn't be my preference. I like Batt, Kunk, or Rhinox as today's lynch.

[Kmd4390]

I would rather hold a Batt lynch until we see a Ythan flip.

I don't even see how Batt and Ythan have much of anything to do with each other's alignments.

[Kmd4390]

Also, Ythan, if you are town, I hope you realize that not using your ability probably means I am dying and I don't really have any confident town reads. I don't want to give 9 votes to scum.

[Kmd4390]

Batt, if this were LYLO and I were scum, id have hammered ythan already unless he was my scumbuddy in which case the game would be over by now.

[Kmd4390]

Vote Kunk

[Kmd4390]

Nacho, if you vote him, anyone can hammer.

[Kmd4390]

Batt, I put more effort into this game than I've put into a game in quite some time. I thought trying different avenues was necessary with everything being so wrong so far. The NKA TM turned out to be very tedious and took forever. And I didn't seem to be gaining any info from it, so I dropped it.

Oh, and when you (Batt) posted the Vote Counts, Nacho became obvscum and I was hoping people would catch on and lynch him.

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And miller/framer, but no cop? Damn.

I thought Charlie was cop for the longest time.

Huh? He vpte SSBF? I can't sheep that, I'm not a mindless drone you know. I'll think for myself too. And SSBF, along with Xite91, I thought was town. Still do.

Charlie, how sure are you of those 3 town reads?

Not as strong as MichelSablehart and yourself, kmd4390.

^Guess those weren't Nights 1,2 investigations....

Thought Charlie was breadcrumbing and thought I'd fish (yes, as town) for the results as subtly as possible, and thought he noticed and breadcrumbed to me.........

Thought I saw Charlie breadcrumbing a little before that too, which is what I meant here:

Hold on. I think I just figured something out. Won't say it in thread though. Holy shit, this changes things. (Note: It doesn't affect the Richard vs Ythan situation...much)

More evidence that I suck at figuring out power roles. Like I said during the game, I don't even try any more. This one just caught my eye.

[Kmd4390]

Oh, and why the Xite kill? That was bugging me.

[Kmd4390]

@ kmd: I'll take that bet. If at least 1/2 of Amished/Twomz/Ani/Pittbunny is scum I'll change my avi to



for at least a week. If less than 1/2 of Amished/Twomz/Ani/Pittbunny is scum you'll change your avi to the above link for at least a week.

Deal?

I just remembered this and will put it up as soon as I can. I was only right about amished.

[Kmd4390]

Unless Twomz has a problem with it, I'd like to wait until I'm done with my current avatar (Feb7).

[Kmd4390]

Avatar updated.