Last Will Mafia II (Over)


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Post Post #1273 (isolation #0) » Wed Aug 11, 2010 5:52 pm

Post by Battousai »

51 pages is a lot to skim, any claimed roles still alive? Obviously, richard claimed a killing role (vig?).
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Post Post #1285 (isolation #1) » Thu Aug 12, 2010 5:13 am

Post by Battousai »

Why should we believe you over Richard? Tell us why you targetted millar. I'm more hesitant in believing you because you didn't have a vote out last night before deadline hit. I would think that if you thought millar scummy, you would have at least put a vote on him or at least on EGL (making millar a number 2 suspect of sorts).

Vote: Ythan
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Post Post #1290 (isolation #2) » Thu Aug 12, 2010 6:10 am

Post by Battousai »

I haven't fully read the thread yet as I'm still on D1, so I haven't gotten that far. Day-BP? Personally, I would have tried to lynch him for even claiming that.

MSH- Just because it is a confirmed ability, it is not a confirmed alignment. If Ythan-scum wanted to, he could have not used the power and instead saved it for later. Lieing about the kill would put Richard in a tight spot and considering he was number 2 on the vote count, would most likely have people believing him over Richard. Now this mislynch for his own lynch is not correct, IMO. Ythan-scum would have quite a few lies he could tell that would explain why Richard was town. The exact same lies/reasons, I won't list, can be used by Richard-scum/town to explain why Ythan and himself are both telling the truth if he wished to play it that way.

Unvote


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Post Post #1325 (isolation #3) » Fri Aug 13, 2010 5:59 am

Post by Battousai »

Wow, someone else picking up on the fact that Ythan is not confirmed as USING his power nor is town because he HAS a power... Now I haven't read far enough in to get a sense of whether Ythan and/or Richard are scummy from their posts (I've skimmed the thread and I am focusing on vote analysis for D1-D2 right now), but assuming that one of them is lieing is just wrong and then using past read to justify it is wrong. Hell, all of today has been focused on these two players. What about SSBF? IIRC, someone said we can lynch him tomorrow, when the Richard-Ythan votes started coming. There is plenty more to discuss here and waiting for the replacements to respond is the only reason why someone didn't hammer makes me believe that Richard may be town. Votes typically don't come flying in that easily unless it is backed by scum.
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Post Post #1328 (isolation #4) » Fri Aug 13, 2010 7:16 am

Post by Battousai »

Since I don't like telling people to discuss something without giving any of my own input first, I went back to ISO someone who seemed scummy D1- Raider

As town, Raider seems to scumhunt early, which goes against his entire gameplay. However, I can't find him a game where he was scum (and not replaced in), so I can't honestly say this is a scumtell for him or him just deciding to act differently

Raider iso
6) Continues to vote hop, plus saying someone is scum for trying to make a case (seems like a joke, but still)
10) Doesn't believe a claim because it wasn't in the original Last Will.
12) Doesn't want to get reads on people early. Seems like his playstyle so far is to coast and probably hop on a wagon someone else creates
13) Complains about serious posting by Amished. Wants to extend RVS
17) Doesn't want votes passed around (null, as I think some townies may think that would be smart. However, he played in the first last will, so I would think he would know that that wasn't the case)
25) Just noticed he wasn't talking to someone in the game. He really still isn't all too serious about the game here
44) Is ok with lynching an empty slot, but not pressure voting a slot

FOS: Raider (currently Plum)
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Post Post #1333 (isolation #5) » Fri Aug 13, 2010 12:27 pm

Post by Battousai »

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 21&start=0

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 95&start=0

Both of these are him as town, from the beginning. The scumhunting is much better in those games as compared to here. Also, that scum game you linked to is too different to count, IMO. People play differently when the IC in a newbie game.

Xite- How does

"Multiple people did tell Richard to kill Millar.
Ythan did hint that he was going to kill Millar.
This would have confirmed at least richard as town."

equal

"This would have confirmed at least richard as town."?

Also, reasoning for the SSBF vote?
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Post Post #1335 (isolation #6) » Sat Aug 14, 2010 6:35 am

Post by Battousai »

1) Thinking back, if Ythan did hint that he would kill millar, why would Richard-town try to protect millar?

2) "Does look a bit like..." is good enough for you to call someone confirmed town? Isn't there also a decent chance that Richard lied about his role and is fakeclaiming to have killed millar?

If richard is scum, then I speculate that Xite is also scum.
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Post Post #1344 (isolation #7) » Sun Aug 15, 2010 6:53 am

Post by Battousai »

Amished- If he thought Richard was going to kill millar, he could save the vig kill, but still claim credit for the kill (relying on some townie reads on him, having said he would do it, and scum powers that would explain why he and Richard would both be town). If he was scum, I don't think he would kill millar when there are other targets that would go unnoticed. The only reason I see that he would, would be to get the town to focus away from a scum partner.

Xite91- "Because he was told to? Also, if Millar ended up alive, then we would have confirmed Richard as town." Yes, but town would have wasted a vig kill (2 if Richard is town), and millar would have ended up lynched (probably) and then Richard would be NK'd for being "confirmed." Also, isoing you turned up a quote from richard where he said he would not be the town slave and would not have his actions dictated by a random townie.

"It's a good chance, but I'd like to give it one more night to see, instead of a PR mislynch, besides, the way that night happenings went down, it just looks like the whole thing is a big set up"

You go from Richard is a liar, lynch him (4th on a counterclaim wagon)! To a Richard is confirmed town. To a let's give Richard one more night to see.

Now, I'm not even sure if I can that if Richard is scum then you are scum. You are scum, regardless.

vote: Xite91
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Post Post #1346 (isolation #8) » Sun Aug 15, 2010 8:10 am

Post by Battousai »

If I was Ythan-scum, I'd hold onto it for as long as I could. I don't believe Ythan-scum would not be in any danger of being lynched today or NK'd tomorrow. I would have used it to add confusion nearer to end game.
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Post Post #1350 (isolation #9) » Sun Aug 15, 2010 10:12 am

Post by Battousai »

Xite91 wrote:
Unvote

Just realized something.
Yesterday him and Ythan were speaking cryptically all day yesterday.
If you paid attention, you would notice that Ythan did claim to have a one shot kill.
Multiple people did tell Richard to kill Millar.
Ythan did hint that he was going to kill Millar.
This would have confirmed at least richard as town.

Okay that's the recap.
But hey, scum can be pretty crafty.
For instance, they killed twomz last night, proving that he was an inventor.
Therefore proving Ythan's one-shot.
Next, if they block Richard, they get rid of Ythan's one shot, kill a townie, and line up a lynch for the next day.
I'm going to believe Richard's claim for now.
That being said,
Vote:SSBF
I believe the circumstances that you said would make Richard confirmed town (multiple people telling Richard to kill millar and Ythan hinting at killing millar) actually happened before this post. Therefore you DID confirm Richard as town.
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Post Post #1379 (isolation #10) » Tue Aug 17, 2010 6:28 am

Post by Battousai »

Amished wrote:
Ythan wrote:Been having connectivity problems. If anyone still cares, I don't have my kill anymore but I don't know if it worked.
Ok, so I might not have the most experience with 1-shot abilities, but if it's used up; that would almost certainly prove to me that it was used; and not roleblocked.
I'm not sure if you are lieing to cover for Ythan or what. A roleblocked person doesn't know they are roleblocked when they use their power nor after they use it. Also, you just believe Ythan that it is gone. You don't even consider the fact that he may be lieing about having the power still?

MSH- I would think that with this type of game (where if you die you can pass on your votes), that the scum team would be relatively small. For balance, I think there may be two groups (alternating kills, killed the same person N1/N2, etc.). If there were a large scum team of 6 players, they would always stay at 6 strong voting wise. If they are good enough or the town is bad enough, they can go to majority vote and win in N3. For a 23 player large game, that would be too short and since this is a second run for this type (typically different from the first, but more bugs worked out), I would think that would be worked out.

Xite- Your reaction to my accusations against you have been pretty null, I must say. But my gut is still saying you are scum. I really don't like the way you tried to direct a claimed PR to basically null out another's action and I don't like the fact that you jumped on the claimed PR for claiming to have targetted the person who died (just like what would happen if he targetted the person) when someone else who was also supposed to target the player claimed to have done so, claimed to have targetted the player. Initially, you do not even think the plan of getting some confirmed players all the way through. You basically gave a potential mafia RB a german shepard in which to herd the town down the path of destruction. Then when you hear the dog barking, you just run down the designated path it left for you without question.


Also, for all those who said Richard doesn't have a problem lieing. The game you are quoting where he lied was when he was TOWN. "Oh, he lied as town, he can't be trusted to tell the truth as scum!" Right now, I'd almost be willing to daykill someone just to end the day without all you being able to affect the end result.

MOD: I request you give me unlimited day kills rite now!!1!
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Post Post #1398 (isolation #11) » Tue Aug 17, 2010 1:17 pm

Post by Battousai »

xite-
1) Thanks for defending Amished. I really wanted you to respond to what I said and not him...

2) Town can give their vote to scum, plus the whole WIFOM of giving a vote to your scum buddy would make scum giving scum votes a bit more plausible. Plus the whole point was a worst-case-scenerio.

3) Why would null clear you? It doesn't make you more or less so I go to my fallback belief. Let me make my statements crystal. You wanted/actively supported Ythan and Richard targetting the same person. This plan, when vocalized, would lead a mafia RBer into wanting to block one of the two in order to get an extra kill on a townie plus 1 or 2 mislynches (assuming neither Ythan nor Richard are scum). Then when both Ythan and Richard claim to have targetted millar, you follow the RBer's plan and vote Richard without question.

Rhinox- nacho just voted Richard, so he's past fence-sitting.
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Post Post #1416 (isolation #12) » Wed Aug 18, 2010 6:08 am

Post by Battousai »

MSH- Am I suspicious of Magua, yes. As much as xite? no. Magua didn't jump on the Richard wagon. He did, however, say he would vote Richard, gave a reason that seemed thought out (considered ythan lieing, no one lieing, etc.) but wanted the replacments to catch up. Then he goes AWOL.

MOD: Can you prod Magua and Richard please?
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Post Post #1422 (isolation #13) » Wed Aug 18, 2010 2:49 pm

Post by Battousai »

SSBF- Richard ISO, descending order, post 4. There Richard explains why he targetted millar. Now, will you unvote Richard like you said you would?
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Post Post #1447 (isolation #14) » Fri Aug 20, 2010 6:44 am

Post by Battousai »

Ythan wrote:Richard you're doing a really awful job of defending yourself.
How would a player defend themselves against Night action guesses? The people voting him think that he is lieing about what happened at night.
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Post Post #1449 (isolation #15) » Fri Aug 20, 2010 10:32 am

Post by Battousai »

Guesses, assumptions... There is not really definitive proof to what actually happened, and people are guessing on what really happened.
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Post Post #1460 (isolation #16) » Sat Aug 21, 2010 7:14 pm

Post by Battousai »

Ythan wrote:I find your refusal to even acknowledge the benefit of our role information and the fact that today you've primarily been attempting to discredit it suspect.
I don't agree with the assumption of one of you must be scum. I'm not the only one. Personally, I find your refusal to even acknowledge that you and Richard may both be town and the fact that today you've primarily been attempting to lynch Richard, suspect.
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Post Post #1483 (isolation #17) » Mon Aug 23, 2010 7:27 am

Post by Battousai »

Ok, I think today has lasted a while. A Richard lynch is optimal here for information. However, I also feel that most likely that Richard/Ythan was roleblocked as an inventor claim would definately warrant a RB, but it didn't happen. Of the two, I feel that Richard is more scummy than Ythan (though I find Ythan's lack of playing today because he thinks Richard is scum suspicious as well). Richard failed to use his power until after he claimed, which is always suspicious of not even having the power. The quote Plum provided of Richard explaining why he didn't target millar was to avoid blocking a vig is suspicicous to what happened last night.

All in all, I'd be happy with a Richard lynch today

unvote, vote:RichardGHP
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Post Post #1505 (isolation #18) » Wed Aug 25, 2010 9:50 am

Post by Battousai »

Deadline is in 6 days. I see no reason why we have to drag the rest of the day on. We have a lot of communication for today and any questions/arguments can be settled tomorrow. This game is still stagnating, but with a lynch and mod confirmed inormation, it may pick up a bit.
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Post Post #1510 (isolation #19) » Wed Aug 25, 2010 5:22 pm

Post by Battousai »

Xite91 wrote:@Bat - Okay, lets lynch SSBF.

But seriously, there's still info that could be gotten, especially right before deadline, but eh.
Dragged out, hardly used, and probably could be gotten tomorrow, but ya there is still some information but there is such a thing as TOO MUCH DATA. I don't think that is a problem here, but squeezing out the day to get that last bit just hurts the game as a whole, IMO.


Amished- The person who I found scummy and voted for before trying to end the day- xite.
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Post Post #1549 (isolation #20) » Sat Aug 28, 2010 10:07 am

Post by Battousai »

Because you want it to be.
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Post Post #1554 (isolation #21) » Sat Aug 28, 2010 2:33 pm

Post by Battousai »

Ythan wrote:Batt
,
please cease
to
be
ing
a fool.
What do you want me to do, besides fix your grammatical errors? Scumhunt? Why don't you try it? All you've done was question why Richard has not been lynched, to avoid being prodded.
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Post Post #1556 (isolation #22) » Sat Aug 28, 2010 2:48 pm

Post by Battousai »

Ythan wrote:If you're just going to bitch about (perceived) grammatical flaws like a little, well, bitch, then why don't you go sit in the corner
with me
until the rest of
us
the players
are finished playing the game.

I'm starting to waiver now. I'm not that great with the English language, but it would seem 1551 was grammatically incorrect. However, it also seems like your sentence may be right. I just don't care enough to try and find a source to backup my claim.


If you were wondering, yes, I do find you scummy.
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Post Post #1558 (isolation #23) » Sat Aug 28, 2010 2:57 pm

Post by Battousai »

Why hasn't Richard been lynched, is useful?
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Post Post #1567 (isolation #24) » Sun Aug 29, 2010 6:41 am

Post by Battousai »

Ythan wrote:
Battousai wrote:Why hasn't Richard been lynched, is useful?
Talk about grammar.
Anyway, it's a hell of a lot more relevant to the game than anything I'm seeing you post.
Man, you really aren't paying attention to this game. What about me trying to get the Richard wagon to stop (when it reached L-1 quickly). How about when I tried to get discussion started so there would be more to go on tomorrow by bringing up raider/Plum as acting suspicious when I read the thread when I replaced in. Also, I made a case against Xite. All of this happened today, whereas today, you mostly just counterclaimed the kill on millar and asked why Richard hasn't been lynched(except when people addressed you specifically).
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Post Post #1569 (isolation #25) » Sun Aug 29, 2010 6:56 am

Post by Battousai »

Ok, I'll leave you to your fantasy where you are actually helping the town.
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Post Post #1593 (isolation #26) » Mon Aug 30, 2010 5:00 am

Post by Battousai »

Rhinox, my vote on Richard, I believe, is well explained. The question of whether Ythan is the lynch tomorrow is no. I find his actions today to be scummy, but his reactions to our little banter gave me a pro-town feel for him. My reason for voting Richard isn't the cop and his guilty you've quoted. I'm lynching him for information, but I also suspect there is a decent chance he is actually scum which would give us even more information.

EDIT: holy- read the vote count more closely, it says it takes 12 to lynch since that is majority for 23 players.
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Post Post #1595 (isolation #27) » Mon Aug 30, 2010 5:13 am

Post by Battousai »

We are ready for the hammer dammit. It's 2 days before deadline.
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Post Post #1600 (isolation #28) » Mon Aug 30, 2010 5:36 am

Post by Battousai »

For god's sake, yes! Hammer already, lol.

Charlie- Why do you want to wait 2 days to get actual information? What is so damn important that every day has to go to deadline? Deadline is a MAXIMUM limit of time and should not be strived for. If information has exchanged and the day isn't wasted (I.E. a quicklynch), then stretching the days only hampers the town and the game itself. I hate this site's deadline meta, it's asinine.

If you iso me and look for my vote on Richard, soon after that I explain why I want the day to end.
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Post Post #1603 (isolation #29) » Mon Aug 30, 2010 5:44 am

Post by Battousai »

W00t! Third party cult wins!














.... finally, a lynch.
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Post Post #1607 (isolation #30) » Mon Aug 30, 2010 5:55 am

Post by Battousai »

I'll save that for tomorrow
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Post Post #1615 (isolation #31) » Mon Aug 30, 2010 8:50 am

Post by Battousai »

Jahudo wrote:
Rhinox wrote:My main reservation is this: what happens tomorrow if we lynch richard and he flips town?
What I'll do is keep trying to understand the SSBF wagon, most likely. There's only a few Amished points I understand but the rest is like latin to me.
Rhinox wrote:is Ythan the autolynch tomorrow if Richard is town?
Not unless he does something scummy. If Richard is town, then I'll resign myself for the moment to believe that someone used a roleblock that makes no logical sense no matter their alignment.

So you think that it is more likely that someone used a roleblock than for Ythan to have lied about using his vig ability?
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Post Post #1651 (isolation #32) » Fri Sep 03, 2010 7:13 am

Post by Battousai »

In between classes, so just a quick post for right now...

ani, wtf? Give me a
good
reason why you think I should be lynched for saying that and why you are focusing in on that instead of even acknowledging the result from yesterday's lynch.
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Post Post #1668 (isolation #33) » Fri Sep 03, 2010 2:40 pm

Post by Battousai »

My "claim" was a joke meant towards the players who were hesitant in hammering and on my insistance that someone hammer at the end of the day. Nothing more. I even go and say I will explain something tomorrow (I'm on slow/unrelable internet right now, so will have to wait till Monday). If I thought I won, why would I continue the charade that there is going to be a tomorrow?

Also, to the people voting ani... is he being opportunistic or is he just acting noobish? Would scum-ani try and get an opportunistic lynch on me instead of someone else (ie SSBF who was the second leading wagon at the end of yesterday)?

Esurio- I still find that raider's playstyle was scummy, using his voting style to mask any scummy actions he would do (pay attention to one hand, and ignore the other). Plum's actions yesterday/today has done nothing to swade that (she has pretty much stayed out of the light).
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Post Post #1714 (isolation #34) » Mon Sep 06, 2010 7:03 am

Post by Battousai »

I'm back at school so internet is better. I will be responding after class (around 1600).
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Post Post #1724 (isolation #35) » Mon Sep 06, 2010 10:44 am

Post by Battousai »

Info this post, analysis next (with answers to questions posed to me and/or anything needing to be said for today).

Xite 1251- more apt to believe richard as town

richard claims millar's death

ythan claims millar's death

ythan votes millar ^ (3 votes richard)

Battousai votes Ythan (1 vote Ythan). Wants to know why Ythan targetted millar and hesitant in believing Ythan due to not voting Millar or anybody before deadline.

Ythan says millar wasn't lynched due to day-bp claim. Thought it clear he would target millar.

MSH fos richard, claims ythan-lie would create a mislynch for his own lynch, brings up roleblocker

locke votes richard, Richards responses weren't adding up yesterday, agrees with MSH on ythan-lie (4 votes richard)

Battousai unvotes Ythan (0 votes Ythan). Claims to not have fully read thread yet. Claims confirmed power =/= confirmed alignment and that Ythan scum could save power for later and relying on people believing him over Richard when millar died and that Ythanscum lieing =/= Ythan lynch tomorrow due to being able to lie out of it.

SSBF votes Richard (7 votes richard) tells Richard to ellaborate on why he killed millar. Claims hiding info =/= town motivation, plus his already scummy play. Supports charlie, ani, chrono, possible MSH lynch as backup.

Richard claims roleblocked, ythan town.

Xite votes Richard (8 votes richard), quotes ythan's killed millar claim and says he expected something of the like.

Jahudo claims to be good with a Richard lynch, doesn't think Ythan is scum. Wants to wait for vote count

Jahudo votes Richard after realizing how many it took to lynch (9 votes Richard)

Chrono votes Richard (10 votes Richard), Based on role mechanic, claims if Ythan used his kill on Millar then Richard didn't use his ability, which is against what Richard claim.

Ani votes Richard (11 votes Richard). Gives no reason why.

Amished puts out intent to vote (hammer) richard due to Ythan's claim and millar dieing. Asks Richard about Rber and why they block someone planning on killing a townie. Doubtful answer will effect his vote.

Richard sticks to RB theory

Magua doesn't want day to end until replacements caught up so holds vote. Doesn't believe RB theory. Believes Richard lieing is most likely of the 3 talked about theories.

Ani unvotes Richard (10 votes Richard). Wants to avoid quickhammer.

Ythan doesn't like Richard's FOS on Magua (Mod error led Magua to believe Richard voted Ythan when he wasn't).

Kmd doesn't understand Ythan's claimed night action. Calls Richard obvtown, 2-3 scum on wagon.

Locke wants Ythan to confirm whether he still has role on idea that Rbing a 1-shot ability lets you keep the power.

Amished summerized what happened, to Kmd. Says Richard or Kmd hasn't provided logical reason for RB. Likes Locke's question. Trusts Ythan a lot more than Richard.

Rhinox answers Amished question/request with influence a Richard mislynch, preventing BP death results in lost day (scum would believe BP claim), didn't know who Ythan was going to kill, and wanted to protect self from vig, and predicted both target millar = 2 mislynches. Claims RB should have blocked Twomz N1.

Kmd claims ythan could have not used kill. Can see RB theory. Ythan hasn't claimed so alignment is unknown.

Amished wants Kmd to prove Ythan was scummy, notes Ythan was not on Kmd's scum lists. Doesn't think Ythan is scummy at all.

Kmd refutes the not on scum list claim with quoted list

holycon says that since ythan got power that confirms him, believes richard claim

Battousai notes that Ythan is not confirmed as using his power or alignment. Wants more discussion focused away from Richard/Ythan, believes Richard is town due to the speed of the L-1 wagon.

Battousai gives out a target for discussion in Raider/Plum with iso. FOS's Raider

Ythan offers to claim to get Richard lynched

Kmd doesn't want Ythan to claim if he still has the kill and has role related info against Richard

Xite unvotes Richard (9 votes Richard). Recaps what happened yesterday (cryptic hints about Richard/Ythan planning to kill Millar). Says this would confirm Richard as town. Calls scum crafty and possible they killed twomz to prove 1shot and blocking richard would result in loss of 1shot, death of townie, mislynch lined up. Revotes SSBF (3 votes SSBF).

At this point the Richard wagon starts to get smaller with less force and discussion away from Richard/Ythan directly starts a bit.
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Post Post #1725 (isolation #36) » Mon Sep 06, 2010 10:46 am

Post by Battousai »

KMD- “Batt what information would you get from a richard town flip.”

Since I believe the initial Richard wagon formed too quickly and most likely had scum on it or had intention to vote (regardless of Richard's alignment), knowing the alignment would shift focus to how scum would act with the wagon and away from how scum would react to their partner's wagon. These posts right here is the information I received and the reason I didn't want to post it in twilight was to prevent WIFOM (scum could kill me for being right or for being wrong) and I didn't want to chance the town's reaction.

Charlie 1634- logic fail. Just because he killed millar (a townie btw), doesn't mean Ythan didn't due it as scum (though there were better targets if his plan was to kill people who are considered more likely town by the town.

Holycon 1639- Notes my joke vote/reaction. Doesn't take a stance buts wants people to notice it.

Ythan 1670- elaborate please, the post you are commenting on focuses on myself, ani, and plum. Which part was too scummy too be scum and do you find it scummy?

Xite 1690- That line is what was the focus of our exchange yesterday. What I think is tripping Nacho up is that what you actually posted was that Richard is confirmed town based on what happened the day before. Then you go on to night speculation. What I think, you think, is that the certain actions that would lead to Richard as being confirmed town is what you posted after you said Richard is confirmed town (the nightkill speculation). You confirming Richard should have came after the nightkill speculation in that post, not before.

Plum 1697- Before I started rereading the thread, I read the final vote count of the previous day. Then when Ythan claimed to have killed Millar, I found it hard to believe he would kill someone he didn't suspect enough to vote against. I unvoted due to Ythan saying Millar claimed day-BP.


Ythan, please participate. You said you had more time for the game, but you've done nothing today and little yesterday.

..........................

I believe once scum knew there was a counter claim, they believed one of the two would be lynched. I think they would jump on early. I left out Ythan since he counterclaimed and I believe town/scum would vote Ricard then, equally.

Locke vote is early, however he backs up his vote with previous day actions (though vague).

(Locke)

SSBF's vote is early as well. This whole post strikes me as off. Wants Richard to share his information, but is voting him. This is telling me he thinks Richard is scum (the vote) but at the same time talks to Richard as if he is town. That, combined with stating he supports a lynch on 3-4 others if Richard doesn't get lynched puts him as more likely scum than Locke.

(SSBF>Locke)

Xite's vote is only the 4th (based on the number of players not actual number of votes). With so many still alive, I would classify this as early. I do not like the fact that you expected Ythan to counter claim, but earlier you state you are more apt to believe Richard is town due to meta (however you then go on
to say he is either scum or a detriment to the town and should be lynched).

(SSBF>Xite>Locke)

Jahudo vote is early (player wise, but vote wise is mid to near end). Doesn't give reason for why. However he waits for a vote count before voting (or a confirmation that it wasn't too near end.

(SSBF>Xite>Jahudo>Locke)

Chrono puts wagon at L-2 and uses IIoA (seems to shrug off commenting on whether Richard is scummy and sticks to it being impossible for him to be telling the truth based on his claimed role).

(SSBF>Chrono>Xite>Jahudo>Locke)

Ani puts Richard at L-1, with no reason why, though unvotes when notices it is L-1

(SSBF>Ani>Chrono>Xite>Jahudo>Locke)

Amished has intent to hammer. Questions Richard, even though he doesn't seem to care about the answer. I see no reason why he wouldn't hammer, then if he was town.

(SSBF>Ani>Chrono>Amished>Xite>Jahudo>Locke)

Magua doesn't explicitly claim to want to hammer Richard but states doesn't want day to end, so I believe he was thinking of hammering.

(SSBF>Ani>Chrono>Amished>Xite>Jaudo>Locke>Magua)

Holycon doesn't issue a want to vote for Richard, but he does believe Ythan over Richard. Logic fail in post, calling Ythan town for having a power. I find this in and of itself scummy.


Vote: SSBF
for now. I like having my vote out without it being backed up by random. Will focus more of a case tomorrow as I gotta get home.
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Post Post #1735 (isolation #37) » Tue Sep 07, 2010 6:03 am

Post by Battousai »

Chrono- To me, it seemed like you weren't giving any input, just restating facts and using the facts to say this is the truth. You don't comment on past play by Richard, why Richard would lie, whether you believe the Ythan claim over a Richard claim and why. That, to me, seems like you are getting rid of responsibility because facts cannot be disputed, whereas what you feel and why can be.

SSBF- I think scum can jump on later, but that is usually a tell of not knowing who would be lynched and not wanting to put forward a strong case to get the wagon forming. In this case, there was reason for the lynch and it seemed that a Ythan/Richard lynch would be inevitable. So, in order to avoid the scrutiny of being near the end of the wagon, they would vote sooner rather than later. This is all WIFOM, but I still believe my theory is more likely correct.

I just felt that post was off. If you felt that Richard was lieing, as proposed by your vote, you would think others would as well. I think that if you felt that one of them was lieing scum (since you didn't think it was Ythan, it would be Richard) you would think the lynch of the day would be Richard/Ythan (moreso Richard). Why you brought up being satisfied with other lynches in the same post (meaning nothing had changed from your vote), is off as it shows that you believed that Richard/Ythan may escape the noose.

xite-
Xite91 wrote:
Unvote

Just realized something.
Yesterday him and Ythan were speaking cryptically all day yesterday.
If you paid attention, you would notice that Ythan did claim to have a one shot kill.
Multiple people did tell Richard to kill Millar.
Ythan did hint that he was going to kill Millar.
This would have
Meaning you are talking about the above
confirmed at least richard as town
Since above happened, = ricard is confirmed town
.

Below is night speculation, which you MEANT to say if this happened it would mean Richard is confirmed town


Okay that's the recap.
But hey, scum can be pretty crafty.
For instance, they killed twomz last night, proving that he was an inventor.
Therefore proving Ythan's one-shot.
Next, if they block Richard, they get rid of Ythan's one shot, kill a townie, and line up a lynch for the next day.
I'm going to believe Richard's claim for now.
That being said,
Vote:SSBF
What you said is not what you meant. I'm not calling you scum for it anymore as I have realized this. I'm just pointing out for Nacho that you did not word this post correctly and that is what is causing the confusion. Understand? If not, I'm not talking about it anymore and hopefully Nacho understands, so you won't bang your head into a wall.

Spoiler: more apt to believe Richard town based on meta, bolded
Xite91 wrote:
Jahudo wrote:I'm still good with my vote. I don't see how a wagon on him prevented a catchup post to identify his suspects when he had about 3-4 days since his previous post.

Hey xite, do you have any Richard games in mind that I could read and see the extent of his scumhunting?
Well a lot of what I looked at were games still going on (because I read the first few pages of his site ISO) But here are a few I found that were completed, sorted by role;

Town

Christmas time mafia <---- Holy hell multiple paragraphs of text? And I see actual explanations for things too.
Mafia in hell, Michigan <----
This one has me more apt to believe he's town in this game
, but if you read it, he still tries to help a little bit, Although he pulls a terrible gambit in this one, too.

Mafia
Seemingly Normal Mafia <---- Still some points with multiple points of text, but a lot less of that, also he had to be replaced out. I'll also have you note that in his ISO, I found a point where he votes someone and says Oh My God, You Suck. Familiar?

There like two more (I think), but I lost them in my mass amount of tabs. Besides, you could take the time to do a little research on your own :)


That is why I gave my information so you can know what I'm drawing from if you do not understand (in retrospect I should have used spoiler tags to avoid unnecessary wall post). The rating is based on who voted Richard and those who voiced intent to vote. Therefore, when judging on who should be higher or lower, take into consideration it is a limited pool and minor differences can push someone farther up the chain. The first 3 I would label as scummy, and would definitely consider voting or at least need more focus put onto them.

Putting Richard at L-1 without explaining why (which leads to assumptions which can be defended by "I didn't think that") is pretty scummy. His unvote showed either he didn't know the vote count and didn't want the hammer to happen yet (voting without knowing the VC is anti-town at best) or he wants to appear to be hesitant in a hammer (which is scummy).

Amished's question is what made it scummy. He basically says that he doesn't think the answer will affect his reason to vote. Therefore the question seemed to be more a formality to what a townie would do. However this isn't a strong tell and is why he is only 4th.

....

ISOing SSBF now, ani later, chrono even later this game day.
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Post Post #1755 (isolation #38) » Wed Sep 08, 2010 7:41 am

Post by Battousai »

I'm almost done with the SSBF ISO, class about to start. Tomorrow it should be done, as it is taking longer because I'm trying a new method of analysis (to me) along with the standard.

Ythan, I would say, is the scummiest player that people think is town in this game. If anyone else would post like him, those same people would probably attack him for active lurking.
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Post Post #1775 (isolation #39) » Thu Sep 09, 2010 12:26 pm

Post by Battousai »

So close to finishing, about 40 more minutes and it will be done. I'll post this during a break in classes tomorrow. FYI, it's taking awhile because one method wasn't working (the new one, and I got distracted with an Adelish vote analysis from SSBF's post saying Dia was bandwagoning, where I didn't see too much of it.
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Post Post #1783 (isolation #40) » Fri Sep 10, 2010 9:33 am

Post by Battousai »

Don't know the best way to post this, as it spans 23 names and there were over 130 votes D1. The best I could do is the following. To read it better, zooming in would help (cntrl + for many PCs). I just got done with it so I haven't analyzed yet, but the reason I did this was to check SSBF's statement (and then some). He was wrong about Diacria. They were either 1st, second, or third on any wagon (up to the his post). Tomorrow, I'll do more analysis and go on to explain some points I have against SSBF.

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Post Post #1793 (isolation #41) » Sat Sep 11, 2010 10:35 am

Post by Battousai »

Unvote, Vote: Ythan


Actively not scumhunting and relying on the fact that he killed millar so he can coast by and not play. My vote is not moving from Ythan today.
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Post Post #1795 (isolation #42) » Sat Sep 11, 2010 10:51 am

Post by Battousai »

I think it is about 50/50 that you are scum. I just rather not play with you if you post just so you don't get replaced.


I'll do some more scumhunting for tomorrow's lynch later when I'm at school. This internet is a pain and I can't even see my D1 voting data.
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Post Post #1845 (isolation #43) » Mon Sep 13, 2010 4:34 am

Post by Battousai »

Looking back on the D1 vote count, the only 2 people that seem to stand out is Jahudo, chrono, magua, Locke, and ani.

Jahudo, I don't like his switch from the shattered wagon to the raider wagon. He switched from a declining wagon to a wagon that was picking up speed. Not too suspicious but enough to wonder about his alignment (since I've had a null read on him so far).

The other 4 are suspicious since D1 they did not vote for anyone but a confirmed townie.
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Post Post #1868 (isolation #44) » Mon Sep 13, 2010 9:12 am

Post by Battousai »

Rhinox- It's not my fault that I didn't find too much relevant issue in the vote chart. I posted it because it took me over an hour to do and I figured someone else might be able to use it who doesn't feel like wasting their time.
Kmd4390 wrote:Battousai - Replaced Pittbunny who I was sure was scum. Started out scummy. Then went and pinged one of my solid town tells. WTF BATT.
I'm good at pinging town tells. I can ping yours allllll night long. :wink:
Kmd4390 wrote:Jahudo and Nacho were on a wagon that was large at one point. Shattered flipped town, so it's not a counter wagon to a scumbuddy. They get town points.
Not sure on that one. The wagon started to dwindle and Jahudo switched to Raider as that wagon was picking up steam. Seemed to me that Jahudo-scum switched votes to a wagon that was more likely to be lynched. Not knowing Raider's alignment is hard to judge if he might have been pre-bussing or just trying to get someone lynched.

I'd be more willing to go back to my SSBF vote once Ythan starts contributing more than what he has this last couple days.
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Post Post #1881 (isolation #45) » Mon Sep 13, 2010 3:38 pm

Post by Battousai »

Amished wrote:
Super Smash Bros. Fan wrote:Will post more tomorrow since I don't have time to make a big post, but this caught my attention
Amished wrote:Jesus Christ you guys haven't said shit lately.
This quote is ironic to me. Amished is claiming that we haven't said anything lately (Which I disagree with, there is always something to comment on and people making useful posts) yet as of this post, he hasn't really done that much scum hunting today.
So... am I scummy for this? How is this a useful post at this point since there's absolutely no analysis combined with it?
Kind of agreeing here. SSBF's post seems to be from a scum stance. It is understandable for Amished not to have contributed much, since, you know, he was prodded... But when he came back he has started making points and so forth, but you zero in on this.

@KMD- Anyone else you are not sure of that I can suspect so you will think they are town?
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Post Post #1901 (isolation #46) » Tue Sep 14, 2010 10:16 am

Post by Battousai »

@Charlie- If you have 2 or so hours to kill, you try making another voting spreadsheet for D2/D3. It's not fun. It's probably easier to make when you add onto it as the day goes on. What did you mean by the dictating of things? Also, your post about my iso 41 and 43. Take a stance on it. Tell me if you think it is scummy or tell me if it is townie. Tell me if it would most likely come from scum than town. Give me something other than "That's a bit strange."

"Content generation from these people are excellent and should be referred back again:
Kmd4390 (everything)
Battousai (vote count spreadsheet)
esuriospiritus (breakdown analysis of wagons)
Rhinox (said that there is a lot of useless thing happening and this rings true; goodposting)
Jahudo (red panda)"

My vote count spreadsheet was not content, it was information. Rhinox's one post should not be enough to give him a pass for the day, especially when it is a comment that a lot of useless things are happening. I don't know what you mean by red panda.

"Ythan (Probably town, but still a good lynch. Yes.)"

No. If you have a town read, enough so that you can call him probable town, you should not lynch him. If you did and you were in lylo, it will lessen your chances of getting a correct lynch. I would because I have a null read on him, but his anti-town play is what pushed my vote.

@Kmd- Do you normally try and get people lynched (via rallying for votes against them) and then switch and try and get them to look at someone you actually find scummy? 'Cause that is what you did with Ythan and I was wondering what the mentallity behind it is. Do you find people try to defend themselves through action when you give them an out like that? By going for him do you feel that you put him in the position to try and show his towniness to you by doing what you want?
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Post Post #1917 (isolation #47) » Wed Sep 15, 2010 10:31 am

Post by Battousai »

I agree with xite on your information/content tm analysis post. Leaving out players you think are town in order to get a better judgement on those you don't is fine, however in the sense you determined who was scum, it would be best to put those who you feel is town in there as well. This way you can balance out those reads and see if someone you find townie is acting in a similar way of someone you have thought of as scummy.
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Post Post #2011 (isolation #48) » Fri Sep 17, 2010 4:33 am

Post by Battousai »

Newer vote count on top 2 voters:
Super Smash Bros. Fan (9) - Amished,
Ythan (4)
,
Xite91
, Locke Lamora,
rhinox (2)

animorpherv1 (8) - Super Smash Bros. Fan (3),
Jahudo
,
Charlie
, kmd (2),
holycon


Not voting the above
ani
batt
chrono

nacho
plum

esurio


prob town: esurio
lower scale town: jahudo, rhinox
lower scale scum: holy, chrono, xite, ythan, plum
prob scum: charlie


Newer vote count on top 2 voters:
Super Smash Bros. Fan (9) -
Amished
, Ythan (4),
Xite91
,
Locke Lamora
,
rhinox (2)

animorpherv1 (8) -
Super Smash Bros. Fan (3)
, Jahudo,
Charlie
, kmd (2),
holycon

Not voting the above
ani

batt

chrono
nacho
plum

esurio

Kmd-
Don't feel comfortable as calling town:
amished, xite, locke, ani

rhinox, batt very likely scum
xite, ani must be scum

smash, amished, batt scum

obv town- charlie, plum, holycon


The bottom part is kmd's stances and how it relates to his vote. Since he seemed to jump around, I wanted to check. It is most reasonable for him to vote ani as that has larger scum on it (to him). Mine is different, I left out the two lynch targets, but the final result is that ani had a rating of -2 compared to SSBF's -1 (prob town gets 2, lower scale 1, null 0, etc..). I'll be on later to vote, and make a decision, but I will like to give my vote to esurio as whichever wagon is joined, that one would have a higher number of townies until the others voice a decision as well.
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Post Post #2016 (isolation #49) » Fri Sep 17, 2010 10:31 am

Post by Battousai »

Going home, but just in case I can't get back on before deadline or before esurio gets on:

unvote, Vote:SSBF
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Post Post #2021 (isolation #50) » Fri Sep 17, 2010 1:41 pm

Post by Battousai »

His vote didn't count anyways. He didn't unvote. His lack of reading the thread and going straight for ani puts me more at ease for voting SSBF.
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Post Post #2023 (isolation #51) » Fri Sep 17, 2010 2:14 pm

Post by Battousai »

Personally, no. We can only speculate on why he requested replacement (my guess is he doesn't find this game interesting/tired of it). He might just not care and didn't want to interfere with the game.
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Post Post #2050 (isolation #52) » Thu Sep 23, 2010 3:38 am

Post by Battousai »

Kmd4390 wrote:
vote batt x2
Explain vote please


Wagons of the game (min 8 votes to lynch)! I'm going to focus on wagons that are on confirmed town



28:

Shattered Viewpoint
(12) - Ythan,
EGL
, Magua,
Super Smash Bros. Fan
, Amished, Charlie, kmd4390, holycon,
towmz
, animorpherv1, pittbunny,
millar13

raider8169 (3) - Chevre, nachomamma8,
CSL

RichardGHP
(3) -
Xite91
, raider8169, chronopie
Super Smash Bros. Fan
(1) -
Shattered Viewpoint

Chronopie (1) - rhinox
CSL
(1) -
Diacria

Not Voting (2) - Reverse Simplicity,
RichardGHP


54:

EGL
(9) - nachomamma8, jahudo, Locke Lamora, Charlie, kmd4390,
RichardGHP
, rhinox, Magua
RichardGHP
(5) - animorpherv1,
CSL
, Amished,
Xite91
,
Super Smash Bros. Fan

Charlie (2) -
Twomz

Super Smash Bros. Fan
(1) - Chronopie
Chronopie (1) - holycon
CSL
(1) - pittbunny
Not Voting (4) -
EGL
, raider8169,
millar13
, Ythan

58:

RichardGHP
(11) - Ythan, Locke Lamora,
Super Smash Bros. Fan
,
Xite91
, jahudo, Chronopie, animorpherv1
Super Smash Bros. Fan
(2) - Amished, rhinox
animorpherv1 (1) - Magua
Not Voting (8) - holycon, Plum, Battosuai, nachomamma8, Charlie, kmd4390, MicelSableheart,
RichardGHP


59:

RichardGHP
(10) - Ythan, Locke Lamora,
Super Smash Bros. Fan
,
Xite91
, jahudo, Chronopie
Super Smash Bros. Fan
(2) - Amished, rhinox
animorpherv1 (1) - Magua
Not Voting (10) -
RichardGHP
, holycon, Plum, Charlie, kmd4390, Battosuai, nachomamma8,
MichelSableheart
, animorpherv1

60:

RichardGHP
(9) - Ythan, Locke Lamora,
Super Smash Bros. Fan
, jahudo, Chronopie
Super Smash Bros. Fan
(4) - Amished, rhinox,
Xite91
, Plum
Xite91
(1) - Battosuai
animorpherv1 (1) - Magua
Not Voting (10) -
RichardGHP
, holycon, Charlie, kmd4390, nachomamma8,
MichelSableheart
, animorpherv1

62:

RichardGHP
(9) - Ythan,
Super Smash Bros. Fan
, jahudo, Chronopie, Nachomamma8
Super Smash Bros. Fan
(5) - Amished, rhinox,
Xite91
, Plum,
MichelSableheart

Ythan (1) - animorpherv1
Xite91
(1) - Battosuai
animorpherv1 (1) - Magua
Not Voting (6) - holycon,
RichardGHP
, Charlie, kmd4390, Locke Lamora

64:

RichardGHP
(9) - Ythan,
Super Smash Bros. Fan
, jahudo, Chronopie, Nachomamma8
Super Smash Bros. Fan
(5) - Amished, rhinox,
Xite91
, Plum,
MichelSableheart

Ythan (1) - animorpherv1
Xite91
(1) - Battosuai
animorpherv1 (1) - Magua
Charlie (1) -
RichardGHP

Not Voting (5) - holycon, Charlie, kmd4390, Locke Lamora

65:

RichardGHP
(10) - Ythan,
Super Smash Bros. Fan
, jahudo, Chronopie, Nachomamma8, Charlie
Super Smash Bros. Fan
(5) - Amished, rhinox,
Xite91
, Plum,
MichelSableheart

Charlie (2) -
RichardGHP
, Locke Lamora
Ythan (1) - animorpherv1
Xite91
(1) - Battosuai
animorpherv1 (1) - Magua
Not Voting (3) - holycon, kmd4390

69:

RichardGHP
(11) - Ythan,
Super Smash Bros. Fan
, jahudo, Chronopie, Nachomamma8, Charlie, Battousai
Super Smash Bros. Fan
(7) - Amished, Rhinox,
Xite91
, Plum, MichelSabelheart, kmd4390
Charlie (2) -
RichardGHP
, Locke Lamora
Ythan (1) - animorpherv1
animorpherv1 (1) - eurospiritus
Not Voting (1) - holycon

72:

RichardGHP
(11) - Ythan,
Super Smash Bros. Fan
, jahudo, Chronopie, Nachomamma8, Charlie, Battousai
Super Smash Bros. Fan
(7) - Amished, Rhinox,
Xite91
, Plum, MichelSabelheart, kmd4390
Charlie (2) -
RichardGHP
, Locke Lamora
Ythan (1) - animorpherv1
animorpherv1 (1) - eurospiritus
Not Voting (1) - holycon

73:

RichardGHP
(11) - Ythan,
Super Smash Bros. Fan
, jahudo, Chronopie, Nachomamma8, Charlie, Battousai
Super Smash Bros. Fan
(7) - Amished, Rhinox,
Xite91
, Plum, MichelSabelheart, kmd4390
Charlie (2) -
RichardGHP
, Locke Lamora
Ythan (1) - animorpherv1
animorpherv1 (1) - eurospiritus
Not Voting (1) - holycon

74:

RichardGHP
(10) - Ythan,
Super Smash Bros. Fan
, jahudo, Chronopie, Nachomamma8, Battousai
Super Smash Bros. Fan
(7) - Amished, Rhinox,
Xite91
, Plum, MichelSabelheart, kmd4390
Charlie (2) -
RichardGHP
, Locke Lamora
Ythan (1) - animorpherv1
animorpherv1 (1) - eurospiritus
Not Voting (2) - holycon, Charlie

75:

RichardGHP
(12) – Ythan,
Super Smash Bros. Fan
, Jahudo, Chronopie, Nachomamma8, Battousai, holycon, rhinox
Super Smash Bros. Fan
(8) – Amished,
Xite91
, Plum,
MichelSableheart
, kmd4390,
RichardGHP
, Locke Lamora
Battousai (1) – animorpherv1
Animorpherv1 (1) – esuriospiritus
Not Voting (1) - Charlie

83:

Super Smash Bros. Fan
(8) - Amished, Ythan, Chronopie,
Xite91
, Locke Lamora
animorpherv1 (6) - Rhinox,
Super Smash Bros. Fan
, Jahudo
Battosuai (3) - animorpherv1, kmd4390
Ythan (2) - Battosuai, Charlie
Amished (1) - holycon
Plum (1) - esuriospiritus
Xite91
(1) - nachomamma8
Charlie (1) - Plum

84:

Super Smash Bros. Fan
(9) - Amished, Ythan,
Xite91
, Locke Lamora, rhinox
animorpherv1 (8) -
Super Smash Bros. Fan
, Jahudo, Charlie, kmd4390, holycon
Ythan (1) - Battousai
Plum (1) - Chronopie
Battosuai (1) - animorpherv1
Xite91
(1) - nachomamma8
Charlie (1) - Plum
Not Voting (1) - esuriospiritus

85:

Super Smash Bros. Fan
(10) - Amished, Ythan,
Xite91
, Locke Lamora, Rhinox, Battosuai
animorpherv1 (9) -
Super Smash Bros. Fan
, Jahudo, Charlie, kmd4390, holycon, nachomamma8
Plum (1) - Chronopie
Battosuai (1) - animorpherv1
Charlie (1) - Plum
Not Voting (1) – esuriospiritus

28: Ythan, Magua, Amished, Charlie, kmd, holy, ani, pitt

54: nacho, jahudo, locke, charlie, kmd, rhinox, magua

58-75: Ythan, Locke*, Jahudo, Chrono, animorpherv1*, nacho, charlie*, Batt, holy, rhinox

83-85: Amished, Ythan, chrono*, locke, rhinox, Batt

Ythan -3-
Charlie -3-
Batt -3-
locke -3-
rhinox -3-

Esurio -2-
Amished -2-
kmd -2-
fishy -2-
nacho -2-
jahudo -2-
Chrono -2-
holy -2-

Plum -0-

Or if you look at just the final vote count each day:

Ythan, esurio, amished, charlie, kmd, holy, Fishy, batt

Nacho, Jahudo, Locke, Charlie, kmd, Rhinox, Esurio

Ythan, Jahudo, Chrono, Nacho, Batt, holy, rhinox

Amished, Ythan, Locke, Rhinox, Batt

Ythan -3-
Batt -3-
Rhinox -3-

Esurio -2-
Amished -2-
Charlie -2-
Kmd -2-
Holy -2-
Nacho -2-
Jahudo -2-
Locke -2-

Chrono -1-
Fishy -1-

Plum -0-


Kmd, what do you have to say for this data? Removing charlie from your previous analysis may by erroneous, especially since he has some of the most points against him on the first one and is on the second lvl on the second one.

Going to look back on the lynch wagon more thoroughly later. Got class right now.
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Post Post #2053 (isolation #53) » Thu Sep 23, 2010 5:45 am

Post by Battousai »

Maybe I can explain it better. I posted every wagon in the game that reached a minimum of 8 players and the person is now confirmed town. The idea behind it is that at least one scum minimum on each that ended in lynch and try and see if anyone jumped from a confirmed town wagon lynch to a different confirmed town wagon (which didn't result in a lynch that phase).

Since Kmd did this earlier I was wanting his opinion on it, since the last time he left people off of it (this one left no one, even myself).

Also, thanks for posting in thread. If you manage to find time, please give us your opinion on anything really.

-----------------------
Reasons for voting Ani:

Jahudo, Charlie, kmd4390, holycon, nachomamma8

Jahudo- Bad to no reasoning for voting anyone, seemed to not want to be responsible for a lynch (
seems reasonable
)

Charlie- rather lynch lurking Ani over SSBF. Claims ani is better lynch than SSBF (
I see no reason where he states that ani is scummy other than for lurking
)

Kmd- Suspects are on the SSBF wagon. (didn't look this up, I think I recalled this correctly) (
seems reasonable
)

Holy- Don't see SSBF as being scummy, but Ani has been very scummy. Ani least helpful (
Calls Ani very scummy, but I didn't see where you mention any sort of case on him
)

Combined with the vote analysis, I suspect both Holycon and Charlie. Holycon definitly seems lurkerish and still don't like how he brought up my "cult claim."

Vote: Holycon
FOS: Charlie
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Post Post #2055 (isolation #54) » Thu Sep 23, 2010 6:02 am

Post by Battousai »

But you didn't state what made ani more scummy. Not even a quote to someone else's case.
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Post Post #2057 (isolation #55) » Thu Sep 23, 2010 6:21 am

Post by Battousai »

I'm not voting you for switching your vote. I'm voting you for not putting forth a reason why ani was better to lynch than SSBF that was reasonable.
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Post Post #2059 (isolation #56) » Thu Sep 23, 2010 6:26 am

Post by Battousai »

This doesn't really help defend against my complaint as it is a little late.
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Post Post #2062 (isolation #57) » Thu Sep 23, 2010 6:45 am

Post by Battousai »

The runnerup wagon is also a good to analyze. Scum like to choose not to join a town wagon late.
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Post Post #2131 (isolation #58) » Fri Sep 24, 2010 5:47 am

Post by Battousai »

Class starts in 5, but I have to just point out the last line in Holy's post can be reapplied to her play so far (IIRC). I'll post more in a bit (class probably short due to the projector dieing last class).
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Post Post #2141 (isolation #59) » Fri Sep 24, 2010 7:07 am

Post by Battousai »

Spoiler: holy
holycon wrote:Batt i think you just pulling crap out considering you've been on every town wagon lynch there's been


Eventually, I'll find scum as the number of townies alive to hide with dwindles.

Spoiler: holy
holycon wrote:your anylizing the ani wagon when you should be anylizing the ssbf wagon you know the TOWNIE that was lynched


I think that the more scum see people look at the vote counts as a bouncing board to finding scum, the more they become wary of being on a townie mislynch. Therefore, I think looking at secondary wagons is just as important as looking at the primary.

Kmd- Ok, just wanted to make sure your case is the exact same as yesterday. Two second point, yes you did use it to call him AND SSBF scummy, but you ultimately picked Ani over SSBF over "scummy" people jumping to the SSBF wagon.

Spoiler: kmd
Kmd4390 wrote:
LlamaFluff wrote:End of Day Vote Count...
Amished, Ythan, Locke, Rhinox, Batt. I ignore Xite because she flipped town. This list has MORE THAN ONE SCUM.

Smash Bras, Jahudo, Charlie, myself, holy, nacho. Other than Nacho, those players are deadtown, my town reads, and myself. Animorph (Fish) is scum and Nacho is town.

Chro, Animorph, Plum, Esurio. There is a scum here. Hint: It's Animorph (Fish)


What makes you so sure that everyone who voted Ani yesterday is town. If that were the case all the scum were on the same wagon except the lurker ani (6 scum in a 24 player game might be balanced based on the 1:3 standard.) If this is the case, it is close to lylo (10 scum, 12 town). I don't find it possible that no scum jumped to the Ani wagon, especially since the recent thought process that being on a town mislynch can get you lynched (if they are already on 2, another one may put a lot of focus on them). Since it would be close to Lylo, I find it scummy that you are going after me instead of your other scum reads that have multiple votes.

For your TM's- I'm not swayed by them. They are erroneous as you keep people out of them that are townie, while what you should be doing is keeping them in and when you have a list of reds and oranges, state your townreads and say that x,y,z are town from my reads, which leaves a,b,c as probable scum. This way allows other people to see your thought process and form their own ideas (which is what I did).

Spoiler: ythan
Ythan wrote:I wonder if Batt is going to actually commit to anything or just throw out numbers. IoA.


Sorry, but I've decided to put my thought processes into the games. When I try to gather data, I post it for everyone to see so they can see where I'm coming from. Also, I've committed to plenty which you choose to ignore (I do have a vote out on someone right now, being the FIRST on it while you have not and are waiting for someone to get a solid case built against them so you can bandwagon them to lynch).
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Post Post #2145 (isolation #60) » Fri Sep 24, 2010 9:16 am

Post by Battousai »

Ythan- "...going to actually commit to anything..." reads as I never commit to anything. Therefore if I actually have committed to something then this is false and I'm not using it to excuse my perceived IIoA. The first two sentences reference your IIoA claim. The third is in reference to never committing. An act of commitment is voting for someone, and calling them scummy, which is something you haven't done today. So, good day sir.
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Post Post #2147 (isolation #61) » Fri Sep 24, 2010 1:24 pm

Post by Battousai »

I know. However my point is still that all the scum would have been on the same wagon except the replacement and none of them tried to bus their partner (pretty valid idea since we are down 6? town to their 0 scum) or tried to get off of a townie mislynch (especially when players started looking at the wagons much more closely and openly). That is highly, highly unlikely. So either scum are also among chrono, plum, or esurio (who you have labeled as town as well, IIRC, and from being green in 2065) and/or your town reads are wrong.
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Post Post #2152 (isolation #62) » Sat Sep 25, 2010 3:51 am

Post by Battousai »

Ythan wrote:
Battousai wrote:Ythan- "...going to actually commit to anything..." reads as I never commit to anything. Therefore if I actually have committed to something then this is false and I'm not using it to excuse my perceived IIoA. The first two sentences reference your IIoA claim. The third is in reference to never committing. An act of commitment is voting for someone, and calling them scummy, which is something you haven't done today. So, good day sir.
No, it does not read as that. You read it as that because, I don't know, reading is difficult for you. It remains that you're using ioA bullshit to cover your own ass from having to do anything meaningful.
I said good day!
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Post Post #2169 (isolation #63) » Mon Sep 27, 2010 3:44 am

Post by Battousai »

v/la for the next couple of days. Got a couple papers I need to finish
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Post Post #2188 (isolation #64) » Tue Sep 28, 2010 7:42 am

Post by Battousai »

Battousai wrote:I know. However my point is still that all the scum would have been on the same wagon except the replacement and none of them tried to bus their partner (pretty valid idea since we are down 6? town to their 0 scum) or tried to get off of a townie mislynch (especially when players started looking at the wagons much more closely and openly). That is highly, highly unlikely. So either scum are also among chrono, plum, or esurio (who you have labeled as town as well, IIRC, and from being green in 2065) and/or your town reads are wrong.
Please respond, Kmd.
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Post Post #2191 (isolation #65) » Tue Sep 28, 2010 9:26 am

Post by Battousai »

Main Point 1- According to the final vote count (with your reads in mind and a 1:3 town/scum ratio), every scum was on the SSBF wagon (except ani who wasn't active at the end of the day) and only town was on the Ani wagon.

Why I bring it up- I find it preposterous that the
scum would all be on the same wagon
, that
all the scum would be on the wagon that ended with a lynch
(especially when players have been looking at the vote counts and counting anyone who votes to lynch town as a scum point), and that
no scum tried to buss ani or to distance themselves from the SSBF wagon
(yes I said this two different ways, but this is very important)

Main Point 2- Why were you after me at the beginning of the day instead of someone else you have pegged just as likely as scum, but has more than 1 vote.

Why I bring it up- If we are getting closer to lylo (and I believe we are close by now), going after scum with multiple votes should seem like a priority.



I also don't see why you are going for a fishy lynch when everyone on the wagon yesterday has been cleared as town to you, therefore a flip for information is not important. That means that you think he is scum from his actions, however I don't see how you find him more likely scum than me or Rhinox (who are red compared to fishy's orange).
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Post Post #2195 (isolation #66) » Tue Sep 28, 2010 10:30 am

Post by Battousai »

Kmd4390 wrote:Batt,
LlamaFluff wrote:End of Day Vote Count

Super Smash Bros. Fan
(10) - Amished, Ythan,
Xite91
, Locke Lamora, Rhinox, Battosuai
animorpherv1 (9) -
Super Smash Bros. Fan
, Jahudo, Charlie, kmd4390, holycon, nachomamma8
Plum (1) - Chronopie
Battosuai (1) - animorpherv1
Charlie (1) - Plum

Not Voting (1) - esuriospiritus
This is the lynch you are talking about.

I know my reads aren't 100% accurate. I highly doubt that Amished/Ythan/Locke/Rhinox/Batt are all scum. I find it extremely likely that two of those names are.

You mention a scum possibly bussing/distancing on the Animorph wagon or avoiding the Smash Bras lynch. Maybe. Who knows. If this is the case, I'd look at Nacho, Chro, or Esurio. You mention Plum. I don't see her as scum at all.
Who knows? It is highly improbable that all the scum would be on the same wagon. So what do you do,
But you have chrono, nacho, esurio as town. You can't have it both ways here. You said that (iso 23 reverse) myself, rhinox, and ani, are scum (definitively) and the remaining scum would be up in the air between amished, locke, and ythan.

If you don't find your reads 100% accurate then why in the hell didn't you include them in your analysis? Because they are part of your scum team, that's why.

unvote;
vote: kmd


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Post Post #2197 (isolation #67) » Tue Sep 28, 2010 10:33 am

Post by Battousai »

damn, stupid laptop entered before I finished and preedited:
Kmd4390 wrote:Batt,
LlamaFluff wrote:End of Day Vote Count

Super Smash Bros. Fan
(10) - Amished, Ythan,
Xite91
, Locke Lamora, Rhinox, Battosuai
animorpherv1 (9) -
Super Smash Bros. Fan
, Jahudo, Charlie, kmd4390, holycon, nachomamma8
Plum (1) - Chronopie
Battosuai (1) - animorpherv1
Charlie (1) - Plum

Not Voting (1) - esuriospiritus
This is the lynch you are talking about.

I know my reads aren't 100% accurate. I highly doubt that Amished/Ythan/Locke/Rhinox/Batt are all scum. I find it extremely likely that two of those names are.

You mention a scum possibly bussing/distancing on the Animorph wagon or avoiding the Smash Bras lynch. Maybe. Who knows. If this is the case, I'd look at Nacho, Chro, or Esurio. You mention Plum. I don't see her as scum at all.
Who knows? It is highly improbable that all the scum would be on the same wagon.

You have chrono, nacho, esurio as town. You can't have it both ways here. You said that (iso 23 reverse) myself, rhinox, and ani, are scum (definitively) and the remaining scum would be up in the air between amished, locke, and ythan.

If you don't find your reads 100% accurate then why in the hell didn't you include them in your analysis?

unvote;
vote: kmd


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Post Post #2202 (isolation #68) » Tue Sep 28, 2010 10:48 am

Post by Battousai »

Plum wrote:I call that you realized the line after "If you don't find your reads 100% accurate then why in the hell didn't you include them in your analysis?" sounded scummy and forced given your overall tone so you dropped it. You should've just cut your losses and left it in when you finished editing in the last bit, I think.
... If I did that, that would be scum trying not to appear forced (also it was already said above so it's not like I can hide it).

The only part I cut out, if you look is "But"; and "Because they are part of your scum team, that's why." I also finished typing my probable scum team. The "but" was removed as it seemed to have no point in that sentence and the last part was removed because after I typed it I thought that Kmd wouldn't answer.
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Post Post #2204 (isolation #69) » Tue Sep 28, 2010 10:52 am

Post by Battousai »

Which is exactly why I cut it...
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Post Post #2206 (isolation #70) » Tue Sep 28, 2010 10:53 am

Post by Battousai »

I accuse them of being scum at the bottom of the post.... you know, where I call a probable scum team.
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Post Post #2209 (isolation #71) » Tue Sep 28, 2010 10:56 am

Post by Battousai »

That makes no sense...
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Post Post #2211 (isolation #72) » Tue Sep 28, 2010 11:01 am

Post by Battousai »

Noting Kmd's response to it as: attacking the fact that I cut something out instead of addressing any point. Major scumpoints here. I'm 100% confident in a Kmd lynch right now.
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Post Post #2213 (isolation #73) » Tue Sep 28, 2010 11:04 am

Post by Battousai »

Can someone who isn't scum weigh in this? This is getting ridiculous. I'm done arguing with scum for the moment.
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Post Post #2253 (isolation #74) » Thu Sep 30, 2010 5:22 am

Post by Battousai »

Still on v/la (got about 3 more pages to finish today and a rough draft tomorrow/sat). I'm still sure Kmd is scum and I'm not as sure, but still think it is highly likely Plum is scum as well (see my scumteam call). Does anyone think there is any relationship between Plum and Kmd? Would a flip of Plum influence anyone else in deciding Kmd as scum/town?
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Post Post #2280 (isolation #75) » Fri Oct 01, 2010 6:59 am

Post by Battousai »

Deadline is in 5 days (Oct 6th), but I'm still limited access until about Monday.

Kmd- Are you going to respond to my post? I'll make it easy for you since you don't want to be "bugged:"
Batt wrote:"Who knows? It is highly improbable that all the scum would be on the same wagon.

You have chrono, nacho, esurio as town. You can't have it both ways here. You said that (iso 23 reverse) myself, rhinox, and ani, are scum (definitively) and the remaining scum would be up in the air between amished, locke, and ythan.

If you don't find your reads 100% accurate then why in the hell didn't you include them in your analysis?"
Specifically, answer why all of the scum would be on the same wagon, even though they've all been called out on being on mislynches, and why didn't you include your town reads {which you claim aren't 100% accurate (except with Plum apparently)} in your analysis?

Kmd's recent NK WIFOM analysis, which hasn't been completed yet, which will give him an excuse to IIoA up until the very end of the day
Kmd's over blowing of my computer entering mistake
The fact that Kmd is running out of suspects with his wagon analysis, which leaves him saying that every one of the scum voted for SSBF
Kmd is almost completely relying on mislynch analysis (I don't recall him ever looking into the reasons of the people voting recently and rely solely on who voted for the most mislynches)
Kmd is targeting people with only 1 vote (myself, ani/fish) over people he has listed as equally scummy who have more votes (rhinox 2 for example) when the scum have yet to be lynched and we should be close to lylo.

All of this means that Kmd is scum. I'm 100% positive. I would be willing to switch to a Plum vote as well, later, if I can't get more people to hop on the Kmd wagon.

Charlie: plum flipping scum would mean that Kmd is more town? That makes no sense. Plum, who Kmd has called town so much that he excuses (don't know what it is called off of the top of my head: because of this would happen, then these people would look scummy) that if Plum flips scum, Kmd's adamant stance on her being town makes him more townie?

More answers to scum/town Plum flip makes Kmd look town/scum/null and why?
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Post Post #2287 (isolation #76) » Sat Oct 02, 2010 5:37 am

Post by Battousai »

Come on people, answer my question. I want a definitive stance before the lynch.
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Post Post #2289 (isolation #77) » Sat Oct 02, 2010 11:36 am

Post by Battousai »

"Would a flip of Plum influence anyone else in deciding Kmd as scum/town?"
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Post Post #2298 (isolation #78) » Sun Oct 03, 2010 3:26 am

Post by Battousai »

holy- well, think about it now! I want a stance from you before any more flips

Jahudo- Kmd has listed Plum as 100% town just about, while you've pointed out that Plum has possible distanced herself from Kmd. Is that a possible link? Also, why do you give Plum an out, essentially? You tell us/her that voting kmd with no reason is scummy, but also tell her/us that if she posts an articulate reasoning she is off the hook.

Esurio- "Should know better" is not a logical reason to defend a scummy action, that's along the line of too scummy to be scummy.

Charlie- Essentially, you aren't going to lynch kmd until we lynch every other scum member... right :roll:

Fuck...
unvote, vote: Plum
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Post Post #2321 (isolation #79) » Mon Oct 04, 2010 9:44 am

Post by Battousai »

kmd wrote:...How can you call IIoA? Just because I'm working on the analysis doesn't mean I'm ignoring everything else. And the analysis will come, but it's a lot more work than I thought it would be. I've put several hours into it and still have a little ways to go...
Your NK analysis is nothing but information at this point. Promising an analysis of it is not the same as giving analysis.
kmd wrote:I'm working on changing my suspect list up because:
A) I've been wrong so far, so something needs to change
B) I'm still alive, so I'm on the wrong track, which is what made me think to look at people who are dead.
A) Yes, but you are still sticking to your original vote count analysis and the only reason you are voting chrono is because you don't want to vote plum.
B) Obviously it is because you are scum
kmd wrote:I use VCA TM in almost every game I play. Not a scumtell. Get over it.
If you are going to use that as a defense, I would need multiple game links where you've used it as town.
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Post Post #2343 (isolation #80) » Fri Oct 08, 2010 4:14 am

Post by Battousai »

Rhinox: Of course it's not the best strategy. Otherwise the scum get to control a lynch. Though, that doesn't mean you can't look at ythan with a bit more scrutiny (scumminess, his reads)

Fishy: I agree that there isn't enough evidence to say for certain that there are two mafia groups, and as such, it is best to assume there is not (1 scum team means they have more votes and thus, we will be closer to lylo) until a different faction flips.

Vote: Kmd


Same reasoning as yesterday.
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Post Post #2357 (isolation #81) » Sun Oct 10, 2010 5:47 am

Post by Battousai »

Kmd- I like how you failed to analyze on the NK wifom yet, just like I said you wouldn't do yesterday. The whole fact that you even used it, and the fact that you are not a noob, tells me you are scum. Yes, nk analysis can be useful, but when you pick only 1 possibility for a person's NK before looking into their posts to see why they were killed is stupid. Doing the exact same thing for every single NK with the exact same reason is asinine. You, as town, would not reasonably think that you could gather any information at all. As scum, you just wanted to look like you were contributing but were just cranking out information until the day ended.

Also, your analysis, though quick, of yesterday's wagon is laughable. You seriously can't analyze the wagon the way you did. Plum and Chrono were just about even until the last few votes. It was perfectly reasonable to believe that Plum could have been lynched over Chrono. Yes, scum would have switched to a Plum wagon to avoid it, but you can't say that until you have a Plum flip. If they are both scum, then the scum would want to lynch the teammate that would become more of a liability later.

You say that you doubt all the scum would buss their partner, but you didn't even list any of the Chrono voters as possible bussers. None. Holy and fishy could have easily been bussing, and so could nacho since anyone of reasonable intelligence would think that you would vote chrono to save Plum. After you voted it was almost guaranteed chrono would be lynched as Chrono would have 10 votes to Plum's 7. If Plum/Chrono cross voted, it would be 11 to 10 and since charlie would sheep Kmd, would be 12 to 10.

The fact that you call those who were on the rival wagon as most likely scum, is just wrong. You have to have a Plum flip to determine if they were scum-scum wagon or town-scum wagons.

Kmd is making town actions that result in scum benefits (wagon analysis that doesn't take into account reasons for voting, erroneous NK analysis/IIoA, the fact he has me/ythan/rhinox as most likely scum but choose to focus on the person with 1 vote even though we are most likely near lylo). That is how decent scum play. They make moves that they expect to be interpreted as reasonable town play, even though it resulted to benefit scum. The fact that there wasn't a NK really tells me that the scum is almost out of town players to kill that give off a town vibe. If at least one of the scum falls into the category of "giving off a town vibe," lets call him Kmd, they can't kill him and they can't kill of one of the last townies that give off a town vibe as it would become suspicious later that "Kmd" is still alive and has multiple votes. To all of the town, I beg of you. Do not listen to those who defend Kmd's actions. They could be his partners trying to defend their most "townie" partner. Look at what I said, then think. Really think. Is Kmd scum? You have to figure this out for yourself, don't allow others to influence the decision as they may have alterior motives. And when you do think about it, and you should, you will realize that Kmd
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Post Post #2359 (isolation #82) » Sun Oct 10, 2010 1:23 pm

Post by Battousai »

Plum- Just wanted to post this in case I forget:

NK analysis- Your point is heresay. Even if it is true, which I'm sure it is, Kmd is not doing the same type of analysis. They look at the person NK'd, and then try and determine a probable reason for being killed. Kmd is looking at the NK'd person, and determining WHO would kill them for a specific reason (the NK'd person was a threat to them). This is not the same thing. The first one (the one you claim Mr. Flay does) is useful. The one Kmd did has no town benefit. None. All it does is make him look like he was trying to find scum. The fact that he should know that, makes it just that much more scummier.

I'll get to your other points when I have more time tomorrow.

Thanks for defending Kmd, though /sarcasm
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Post Post #2361 (isolation #83) » Sun Oct 10, 2010 2:54 pm

Post by Battousai »

Laundry taking longer to get done than I thought, so I have been thinking about my last post and I realized I forgot to add something, so...

EDIT: What I said in the NK analysis plus, Kmd's NK analysis also is accumilitive. That delutes the already bad data even more. It assumes the same person killed each NK for the exact same reason. Even if the exact same reason was used (very improbable), it assumes the rest of the scum team would go along with the plan to protect this lone partner.

......

What, are you not going to try and defend your NK point?

The chances that two scumbags were the top two wagons yesterday is probable, due to the fact that we were down to 14 players with an estimated 6/14 being scum. The chance that the surviving member would heavily defend a partner, is possible. I can't say that they would definitely do it or definitely not. But since the third partner seems to be under NO suspicion other than one player that no one is listening to, and the fact that players have stated that if the surviving player flipped scum, they would not change their stance on the third partner, defending the third player seems like good play, as scum only need a minimum of one person alive to win the game.


I'm not on the fence with you, I think you are likely scum. However, Kmd is definitly scum, which is why I'm focused on him. I would lynch you if you like, but I'd rather lynch Kmd.
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Post Post #2366 (isolation #84) » Mon Oct 11, 2010 4:14 am

Post by Battousai »

Rhinox- I hope you read the rest of that post, as the last paragraph really sums up the case on Kmd.

There was no kill last night, so I am assuming that the scum chose not to kill. Why would they do that? Simple, killing would hurt them more than not killing. Why, when there are players left in the game that the majority of the players believe is town, through saying it or not focusing on them (kmd, jahudo)? The answer is that one of the two is scum. If they kill the town of the two, then eventually the town will wonder why the scum of the two is still alive. So, a no kill is indicative that one of the townie players in the game is scum.

Kmd's links- After looking at the last one (the first one takes into account reasoning for voting), that it is something Kmd does as town.

Plum-

1) I don't understand your paragraph defending Kmd's vote analysis (2358). I was saying that when there are two scum wagons at the end of the day, scum will try and be on the wagon that is most likely going to be lynched and/or more likely to hurt their faction later. Your response was that you are scummy and the scum would of tried to kill you, and if you were scum you wouldn't have acted scummy? That isn't what was at issue. The issue is that you can't call a rival wagon to a scum lynch scum until you know the alignment of the second wagon.

2) Framing kmd as scum for using VCA TM, really? Doing something as scum and as town doesn't excuse the person from doing when scum. If I actively wagon hop to the person with the most votes and give no reasoning for said vote in every game I do as town, then I do it as scum, it doesn't mean it should be ignored. Determing the motivation behind it is what town does. And I believe the motivation behind it in this game is scum driven.

3) Blatant paranoia-mongering tactic? WTF kind of scumtell is that? I give reasons for my vote and I ask people who are ignoring the case to look closer. You are strawmaning my entire case to paranoia-mongering. That's bullshit.

2362-

1) 6 scum in a 24 player setup is balanced if the game lacks powerroles (1:3 standard setup means 6 scum to 18 town). If there are powerroles then it can either increase or decrease for balance sake. 6 is a conservative estimate.

2) There is too a wrong way to do night kill analysis. I think scum killed player x because he didn't say happy scumday to player y. Therefore, player y must have killed player x! That's wrong, but kmd's is wrong in another light altogether. I concede that killing a threat is common scum motivation. But by choosing that as the main reason BEFORE reading the player is wrong. Using it to cover multiple NK's is wrong, especially when you give players points and add them all up at the end. Kmd's data would show that one person would have been the most threatened by all the dead players. If scum did kill every single target based on threat, then the data would not point to anyone over the other, as it is highly unlikely the scum were killing the threats of just one of the members. The "scummy way" is that there is going to be no data from it, and in fact any actual data from it AND it is "scummy" because it allowed kmd to IIoA for a long time and make him "appear" to be acting townie.

3) I'm trying to set you up? Why are you so paranoid? I'm focusing on Kmd. I don't need to "trap" you, as there are already quite a few players willing to lynch you already and the fact that chrono became a leading wagon yesterday is the only thing that saved you. I'm trying to find scum here and you are more worried about me trapping you and getting you lynched.
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Post Post #2368 (isolation #85) » Mon Oct 11, 2010 4:34 am

Post by Battousai »

If it was a 1shot doc protect that saved someone, then fishy should claim that, giving us more information. Since he did not, I'm assuming there was a no kill.

So you think my other points on kmd are valid? Why not vote him then?
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Post Post #2372 (isolation #86) » Mon Oct 11, 2010 9:46 am

Post by Battousai »

Looks town is based on the reads of other people. I said that already.
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Post Post #2374 (isolation #87) » Mon Oct 11, 2010 12:11 pm

Post by Battousai »

If you claim your target, and it matches the kill, then scum can confirm that it was a fluke protect and that they can kill the person. If it doesn't match the person, scum would know there is either a protective role or an immunity role.

For town, it doesn't confirm the person 100%, as there is always the chance the scum no killed or targetted someone else.

I support not telling us who you targetted. It helps scum more than town.


Ugh, with this new info, the chances of lynching kmd today is very low.

unvote, vote: Plum
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Post Post #2395 (isolation #88) » Thu Oct 14, 2010 2:15 am

Post by Battousai »

Class starts in 5, so I'm going to make this brief.

Nacho- read closely... I said that the new information (the 1shot being used) puts a hole in the scum no kill scenerio. Since that was the only difference from yesterday's case, I figured no one would vote Kmd for it like yesterday. That is why I switched. I still believe Kmd is 100% scum, but I have a better chance at lynching Plum who isn't as likely as Kmd, but is still more than likely scum.
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Post Post #2422 (isolation #89) » Sun Oct 17, 2010 5:11 am

Post by Battousai »

Fishythefish wrote:
Charlie wrote:
Fishythefish wrote:there is no clustering effect in picking a random mafiate (or two) from a list of players. This is all intuitively obvious, but it is also mathematically true.
Are you sure about this?
...
...
It doesn't matter. I like your Plum vote, and I say we move on.
Could have sworn I replied to this earlier. Yes, I'm completely sure. I'm also happy to move on, just wanting to make sure you weren't going to vote based on that.
He did vote based on it. He used it as an excuse to jump off the plum wagon and onto Nacho (who's player number is right in the middle) along with his past call of nacho being scum for playing the same here as he was in LWM1.

I also agree with Ythan over his discussion with Charlie. Charlie called for plum's lynch today and nacho's tomorrow. Ythan only pointed out that charlie shouldn't call tomorrow's lynch (which is blantantly obvious as Charlie is very anti-town). Charlie then calls ythan out for dictating that charlie shoulding dictate and strawmans the point by implying that Ythan is trying to control the game since he has the most amount of votes.

And surprise, surprise, Kmd sides with Charlie. WTF? Kmd is not that bad of a player, people. He says he sheeps charlie more than charlie sheeps him recently. So, he is doing it again to reinforce the point. Again, Kmd is not this bad of a player to agree with Charlie. CHARLIE!
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Post Post #2424 (isolation #90) » Sun Oct 17, 2010 5:40 am

Post by Battousai »

2 points.... you are very anti-town/border scum, and Kmd is scum.

Your excuse for voting Nacho is clearly stated and is bullshit. The only case you've presented that I have found, is that nacho is playing like he did in LWM1 and the scum cluster theory. Both are asinine.
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Post Post #2428 (isolation #91) » Sun Oct 17, 2010 9:28 am

Post by Battousai »

Fishythefish wrote:I was assuming Charlie's vote wasn't based on "clustering" because he moved his vote between people with numbers from 1-5.
His clustering case was that there has to be scum in a cluster (1-5 is a cluster). In fact nacho is 3, which is in the middle. The fact that he switched from Plum to nacho (who he earlier listed as Plum lynch today, nacho tomorrow) and did not give a reason for nacho becoming scummier or Plum less leaves only the clustering as the reason he switched from Plum to nacho.
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Post Post #2440 (isolation #92) » Mon Oct 18, 2010 3:17 am

Post by Battousai »

To strawman your case against me... I'm stubborn and was on town mislynches?

Why are you against me tunneling on 2 unconfirmed roles? If they end up scum, and they will, won't that change your opinion on me? Also, I have not been tunneling all damn day, just yesterday and today AND ONLY ON KMD. Plum was null until I started looking at KMD as scum, and their interactions together. Yes, I found more scum by tunneling (when I branch off and call 2 people scum, is it still called tunneling?)

Sorry, but your case is almost (but not quite) as bad as Charlie's. Try again (actually don't, and vote plum).
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Post Post #2443 (isolation #93) » Mon Oct 18, 2010 3:35 am

Post by Battousai »

... read some of my scum games before you put down my scum playstyle and relate it to this game (I have most of my games in the wiki except my most recent).
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Post Post #2445 (isolation #94) » Mon Oct 18, 2010 3:38 am

Post by Battousai »

Good for you, don't expect others to read your games for your meta either.
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Post Post #2452 (isolation #95) » Mon Oct 18, 2010 6:59 am

Post by Battousai »

And how is that scummy?
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Post Post #2467 (isolation #96) » Tue Oct 19, 2010 4:40 am

Post by Battousai »

I can't believe it, but I'm actually siding with Ythan again!

Charlie, read 2457. You are extremely anti-town and hardly, if ever, contribute to any reasonable town conversation (cluster theory falls under unreasonable).


In case I do get lynch (limted access this week due to New Vegas), my top suspects (in order from scummiest to least scummiest) are Kmd (duh!), Plum, holy, nacho/charlie. I'll try and get another post to back up why I think so when I have more time.
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Post Post #2516 (isolation #97) » Wed Oct 27, 2010 7:17 am

Post by Battousai »

I'm for mass claim...

Vote: Kmd


same reasoning as before


I agree with Locke on Charlie. But scummy town is popular in this game.
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Post Post #2518 (isolation #98) » Wed Oct 27, 2010 12:01 pm

Post by Battousai »

mass claim won't change my mind...
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Post Post #2523 (isolation #99) » Thu Oct 28, 2010 6:11 am

Post by Battousai »

Rhinox- mass claim won't change
my
mind on
KMD
. It may help find other scum and it may help others find scum.

Charlie- Why now of all the days, do you start playing, well... better? Also, Egypt is an African nation, not European. I'll go back and look at that spreadsheet soon. Right now I'm at home using an outdated POS with even worse internet connection.
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Post Post #2542 (isolation #100) » Fri Oct 29, 2010 4:47 am

Post by Battousai »

Rhinox-

Others in that post was referencing all other players in the game. I want everyone to look at Kmd independently of what other people are saying about him.

Why massclaim today? The chances of Kmd getting lynched to day is low, especially without many scum links. So, it will help others and therefore is better today than tomorrow (for all we know today is lylo).

On the point of multiple scum factions- it would be best to play as if there is one scum faction (as lylo would happen sooner with 1 faction) but finding small links is still acceptable.
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Post Post #2557 (isolation #101) » Mon Nov 01, 2010 2:28 am

Post by Battousai »

Locke Lamora wrote:Hey KMD, for your NKA TM, did you ever consider that scum were choosing to kill the people who they thought had the best chance of giving them extra votes?
No. He exclusively used his analysis on the "biggest threat" idea that the scum chose whoever thought one of them was scummy. He ignored all other avenue of thought.
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Post Post #2580 (isolation #102) » Wed Nov 03, 2010 2:19 am

Post by Battousai »

Don't have time to read right now, but if everyone finds Jahudo obvtown or confirmed town or most likely town, then why don't we lynch people with a lot of votes (ythan has the most) and if they are town, they will pass them on to Jahudo. When Jahudo dies (I don't see him living to tomorrow), a townie would choose who gets a lot of the votes?


I'm kind of thinking this is a good idea due to the fact that scum's wincon is based on most votes, not most players and giving them to jahudo will keep them out of going to scum as easily. However, I'm not sure a lynch based on a mechanic is the best way to go on D7 when scum can have a free pass to lynch someone without getting flak for it. It's a tough call, but I would be against it since we don't know if Jahudo is on a different scum team than the one that targetted him 2 nights ago and his scum team targetted fishy (jahudo not exactly confirmed), nor do I feel that Jahudo's reads (though I can't find a recent list) would be as a good at passing on the votes as him (the more important reason not to).

Why did I bring this up if I'm against it? First, I wasn't against it until I wrote it down and I don't want to waste what I wrote. Second, this is a "democratic" game and others may find it to be a reasonable idea. Third, I'm nearer the fence on it, and more opinions may sway my decision.
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Post Post #2585 (isolation #103) » Wed Nov 03, 2010 8:23 am

Post by Battousai »

Rhinox wrote:Why would town anyone give their votes to someone who was likely going to be nked when they can simply transfer their vote(s) to their own town reads? Just because Jahudo is obvtown doesn't mean he's any more likely to make a smart vote transfer decision than any Joe Townie we may lynch today. All you're proposing is a plan that consolidates a large number of votes to 1 player. Which means at any time, scum is one bad vote transfer away from getting a majority. I can't see this plan benefiting anyone but scum.
That's what I thought as well, and said so in that post. However, I thought that maybe someone would have a dissenting opinion and come up with a good reason.

Maybe I shouldn't have said anything then, but honestly, I really don't give a fuck anymore.
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Post Post #2591 (isolation #104) » Wed Nov 03, 2010 11:04 am

Post by Battousai »

ISO 21: First case "TBH whether he is scum or not he is not helpful in anyway to town and I would be completely okay with a Chrono lynch"
ISO 30: someone isn't "even HALF as scummy as say ani or chrono or charlie"
ISO 35: "my other suspect Chrono he like richard has seem scummy to me and yes he pointed out the princess thing but isnt it the point of scum to try to seem town"
ISO 106: "im going to vote chrono, hands down i find him teh most scummy"
ISO 107: "VOTE: chrono


...

ISO 101: when asked directly pre-chrono lynch: "plum has been scummy but KMD to me hasnt been so i'm not sure a plum scum flip would change my mind of KMD"

holycon- It's easy for people to get confused when you sit in the background and don't call others scum. What's your stance on Charlie now, since you had him lumped together with ani and chrono?
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Post Post #2618 (isolation #105) » Thu Nov 04, 2010 4:05 pm

Post by Battousai »

If I new we were going to be playing softball, I'd grab my bat and glove...
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Post Post #2619 (isolation #106) » Thu Nov 04, 2010 4:09 pm

Post by Battousai »

Damn, I used the wrong 'knew'.
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Post Post #2641 (isolation #107) » Sat Nov 06, 2010 3:35 am

Post by Battousai »

Rhinox- Holycon/Charlie exchange seems like Holycon/Charlie are scumhunting or at least actively participating. But they are lobbing softballs at eachother (mostly Charlie at holycon) and Charlie is asking holycon the same question repeatedly, even though she first answered most of the questions in a post to me (the one where she calls Charlie probscum/VI). The questions are (Q# is Charlie's question, A# is Holycon's answer, and R# is Charlie's non-question response):

Q1 Why the lack of posting? - answered in the holycon's previous post above the one Charlie originally quoted.
A1 I already answered that when I was talking to Batt
R1 But you could have at least mentioned that bit of info
anyway


Q2 How am I being a VI? - Answered in post response to me
Q3 What does this mean? - Wiki much?
Q4 Where do I stand on your "mafia-town" list? - Answered in post response to me

A2-4 "lets requote what i said first because question 3 is answered here and so is question 1 i said your play confused me you are all over the place and question two VI is village idiot"

R2-4 Calls it simplistic, "WOW". Says he is flustered

Q5-6 Tries to add punctuation to holycon's posts correctly, wants to know if he is correct?
Q7 How am I being a VI? Clarification- Question still stands
Q8 What does this mean? Clarification- Knows what VI is, doesn't understand how a VI (who is a town player, apparently) can also be probscum
Q9 Where do I stand on your mafia-town list? Clarification- Because I'm VI or Prob scum?

A7-9 Doesn't know what Charlie wants, claims to have answered those questions already

R7-9 Oh for the love of... -(and he drops it)

--------------------------------------------------------------
You see, a VI doesn't get better in a game over night. However, scum pretending to be VI can. Charlie is second on the chopping block and he starts posting a lot more. However these posts are completely useless.

Unvote
Vote: Charlie
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Post Post #2643 (isolation #108) » Sat Nov 06, 2010 5:22 am

Post by Battousai »

Who thinks what?
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Post Post #2645 (isolation #109) » Sat Nov 06, 2010 6:34 am

Post by Battousai »

Charlie wrote:
Throughout the whole game I've been passive and I've addressed everyone quite equally (although, I'm open to criticism on this part).

Or how about this simple request: make a list of town/not sure/mafia like the one KMD started and Rhinox, myself and a few others followed. That will help.
Doesn't the bolded imply scum trying not to make connections?

Ok, I'll do a quick scum/not scum list

Town

myself
Jahudo

Middle Town

esurio

Middle

Locke
nacho

Middle Scum

Kunkstar
rhinox
Ythan
Charlie
Holycon

Scum

KMD
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Post Post #2650 (isolation #110) » Sat Nov 06, 2010 7:14 am

Post by Battousai »

Charlie wrote:If you're town then can you try to show me the connections anyway? Because, as far as I know, there should be there no matter how much one tries to cover them up. No one is that good at leaving no traces; there always are if they're mafia. I'm telling you now that there aren't there because, simply, I'm Town. Prove me otherwise.
I'm not good at connections, really. I prefer to make them after a flip to see how flipped scum connect to alive players. Also, they are there, as anyone who goes out and *tries* to find them, WILL find them- even if they aren't real. If you want I can connect you to Holycon as it could seem like you were trying to distance yourself from her in case you would be lynched today.
Charlie wrote:Batt, you've subdivided esurio as middle town, Locke and nacho as middle and a bunch of people in middle scum. That. is. meticulous. I want to know why.

Also, I recall Locke saying this. Your choice of words of late have been different. I feel that you're hiding something. (READ: Gut reading you as mafia for that list)
I had the majority of the players listed as middle. When I looked at it, I thought XXX was a bit scummier/townier than YYY, and YYY is a bit scummier/townier than ZZZ, so I subdivided it. Why do you care that I subdivided them? If anything, it gives a more accurate insight into what I'm thinking than if I just put them all as middle.

My choice of words lately have been different? See the post where I say I just don't give a fuck anymore. I'm more resigned to the fact that I will be lynched soon (today/tomorrow) and that no one will agree with me on who is scummy and who is not (even though many seem to say that they need to relook at who they've labeled as town).

I don't understand the (). Are you saying that you now have a gut read on me as mafia for my list? Also don't get why you linked Locke's connection post.
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Post Post #2653 (isolation #111) » Sat Nov 06, 2010 8:11 am

Post by Battousai »

Lol me and Locke disagree so one of us has to be wrong? Umm... I think you mean AT LEAST ONE of us is wrong. And using the fact. What part of that last post makes you think I'm scum?

Also, you called me town in your list and now you think I'm scum for one gut over logic post.
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Post Post #2654 (isolation #112) » Sat Nov 06, 2010 8:13 am

Post by Battousai »

Edit: Hurried post... the "And using the fact." should have been removed.
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Post Post #2658 (isolation #113) » Sat Nov 06, 2010 1:46 pm

Post by Battousai »

2 days before deadline and it is up in the air between me and Charlie it looks like, so I'll claim... I'm a vanilla townie.
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Post Post #2660 (isolation #114) » Sun Nov 07, 2010 3:09 am

Post by Battousai »

...

Charlie is scum. Can't let him get away with a partial claim to make him seem like he has a power role (probably only saying he is one here in order to get Jahudo to want to keep him alive in order to protect him).


Also, if I am lynched---- for the love of god lynch KMD (jahudo, I beg of you not to give him your votes when you most likely die tonight). But more likely you won't, so at least scrutinize Locke! Vote count was 5 for me, and 4 for Charlie. Then, 2 days before deadline he switches to Ythan because Chrono gave him his votes. I can see it being up for debate and actually considering it, but not 2 days before deadline when NO ONE else has shown support for lynching Ythan today over myself or Charlie. He is obviously trying NOT to lynch Charlie. IIRC, he called Charlie scummy and me not scummy, so he can't just switch and vote me to save Charlie.
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Post Post #2669 (isolation #115) » Sun Nov 07, 2010 9:23 am

Post by Battousai »

Nacho- I'll try and respond to your case when I get some time tomorrow after class, though I know you won't change your mind (and was why I didn't respond/waste of effort)...
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Post Post #2698 (isolation #116) » Fri Nov 12, 2010 7:57 am

Post by Battousai »

For Nacho-

ISO73:

I came in strong against Ythan- I hadn't read yet, only saw the double claim, and jumped on Ythan because everyone else was on Richard/spouting Ythan must be town. My "assault" for the rest of the day was trying to slow the quick wagon on Richard down in order to get more information for the day and it wasn't proven that Richard was beyond a doubt scum at that point (Ythan could have been lying/third party RB). I "distanced from the wagon" I didn't think Richard was scum, but the quick wagon on him earlier was scummy and his lynch would have given us information. ---- To sum up that paragraph- I've been vocally against Ythan, while my votes weren't. I could see that as me trying to distance myself from him, but you can't really hold that against me UNTIL Ythan flips as the basis of the argument is derived from BOTH me and Ythan are scum.

Second paragragh- Plum suspicioun was based on the fact Plum/KMD were basically the same player. Everything Plum said KMD supported. Everything KMD said, Plum supported just about. This was the strongest relationship in the game in my mind. I was on KMD that day and focused on him (tangently focused on Plum for her defense of him and the way she waved me off as scum for attacking him) and therefore was left near the end of the day with the option of a Plum or Chrono lynch. Who should I want lynched, the person who walks hand in hand with the scummiest player in the game, or the person I felt was neutral scum? I went with Plum, independently scummy based on Raider's vote hopping D1, and her buddying to a player that should be unknown alignment to her.

To the fact that it was unlikely to wagon 2 scum players at the end of day when we previously had 4 town mislynches... Statistically, as more town players die, the more likely scum will be lynched. With 8 down (I think 8 down at the time) and with an estimated 6 scum, the chances of wagoning scum is 40% (6/15). For the second, thats 35.7% (5/14). But that doesn't account for the human element.

KMD hate- I know this is WIFOM, but it at least makes sense. Since there were like 0 successful doc protects, wouldn't it have been more likely for scum to just NK KMD than try and get him lynched?




But I already claimed, shouldn't I pick who goes second popcorn style?
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Post Post #2700 (isolation #117) » Fri Nov 12, 2010 8:41 am

Post by Battousai »

But isn't a chainsaw defense used to slow down a scum lynch?
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Post Post #2709 (isolation #118) » Sun Nov 14, 2010 12:50 pm

Post by Battousai »

Pay attention... I already claimed yesterday ----- VT
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Post Post #2737 (isolation #119) » Wed Nov 17, 2010 4:54 am

Post by Battousai »

Locke Lamora - VT
holycon - VT
rhinox - VT
nachomamma8
kmd4390
Ythan - lightning rod
kunkstar7
esuriospiritus
Battosuai - VT

Still need esurio, kunkstar, kmd, and nacho...
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Post Post #2749 (isolation #120) » Thu Nov 18, 2010 4:09 am

Post by Battousai »

Nacho- see 2098 (pg 108).

So, everyone claimed VT except Ythan who claimed 2-shot lightning rod. So, if you are really a lightning rod, how come ani got a role from twomz on N2 (when your ability was still active), over you?

Vote: Ythan
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Post Post #2755 (isolation #121) » Thu Nov 18, 2010 1:27 pm

Post by Battousai »

lightning rod is like bulletproof... you don't choose to use it, it's an automatic ability.
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Post Post #2762 (isolation #122) » Fri Nov 19, 2010 2:51 am

Post by Battousai »

kunkstar7 wrote:2-shot means you choose which nights to activate I'm assuming. Otherwise you would die the first night scum kills if its for all abilities. I think we need a fullclaim from Ythan now.
2 shot bulletproof doesn't mean you have to choose to activate it, so that is not valid.

I thought lightning rod was for all abilities, not night kills. I"ll go check around a bit more.
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Post Post #2773 (isolation #123) » Sat Nov 20, 2010 7:34 pm

Post by Battousai »

Ythan is claiming he misunderstood the role, and that is his defense as to why he didn't try and protect jahudo for another night. Which is funny (not really ha ha funny), considering how he told Kmd to go check the wiki on the role.

What I don't understand is, why didn't you check the wiki to make sure you had your role correctly or at least PM'd the mod for a clarification (it's not all too common of a role, and if I had it, I would want to know if it a) was automatic, b) includes mafia night kill, c) invokes all night actions or just a player I select.

I also don't understand how you misunderstood the role pm. It seems pretty straightforward "... all night actions of another player will be redirected to you" or "... all night actions will be directed to you"- I don't see how the mod could have worded it so that it would include "another player" but mean "all other players"
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Post Post #2787 (isolation #124) » Mon Nov 22, 2010 3:15 am

Post by Battousai »

Kunkstar- I mentioned bulletproof to show that 2 shot doesn't auto mean you have to choose to activate your role (which was your point)
Ythan wrote:
Battousai wrote:What I don't understand is, why didn't you check the wiki to make sure you had your role correctly or at least PM'd the mod for a clarification (it's not all too common of a role, and if I had it, I would want to know if it a) was automatic, b) includes mafia night kill, c) invokes all night actions or just a player I select.
Because the mod's poor wording made it pretty clearly say what I thought it was.
I'm not going to forget my last point in the paragragh:
Battousai wrote:I also don't understand how you misunderstood the role pm. It seems pretty straightforward "... all night actions of another player will be redirected to you" or "... all night actions will be directed to you"- I don't see how the mod could have worded it so that it would include "another player" but mean "all other players"
You are blaming the mod for your lack of research (an entity that can't be defended), and your defense can not be refuted by proof (aka telling us word for word what the mod said about your ability). This is all just a bit too convenient for me.

And now, instead of trying to defend yourself to our satisfaction, you try and put two candidates for lynch in the spotlight (one of which is voting/questioning your role) and then implying someone else who doesn't quite buy your role, as scum.

Also, I find it suspect you didn't try and use your ability once before today. I mean you call out me and holy as the lynch candidates today, why not use it last night on one of use in order to try and save jahudo? If you're not willing to miss with a 2-shot ability on someone who you think is scum in order to protect someone you find to be very pro-town (as does the rest of the town), why are you more willing to lynch them instead the next day (day 8 with only 1 scum lynched making us close to the very end of the game), thus sacrificing jahudo in the process of not losing a shot?
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Post Post #2789 (isolation #125) » Mon Nov 22, 2010 3:57 am

Post by Battousai »

Good game scum! We just lost as KMD has failed to release that if he is wrong, and he is, that ythan can hammer me, a townie will be killed tonight (kmd town most likely), and tomorrow will start with 7 players alive, 4 scum- 3 town? (meaning kmd has more than a 50% chance of giving scum his votes and winning). All of this in order to check and see if ythan is lieing.

THERE IS NO MORE WAITING FOR CONFIRMATION OF ROLES. THAT DAY HAS COME AND GONE A WHILE AGO. IF WE TRY AND CONFIRM YTHAN, THEN TOWN LOSES. IF YOU DO NOT BELIEVE YTHAN'S CLAIMS, YOU MUST LYNCH HIM. IF NOT, YOU TRY AND FIND SCUM ELSEWHERE. THERE IS NO "WAIT AND SEE" WITH YTHAN. IT'S IS HE SCUM OR IS HE TOWN, NO MIDDLE GROUND. NO WAITING FOR CONFIRMATION.
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Post Post #2791 (isolation #126) » Mon Nov 22, 2010 4:02 am

Post by Battousai »

Thank you, for at least postponing it...
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Post Post #2794 (isolation #127) » Mon Nov 22, 2010 8:36 am

Post by Battousai »

Kmd4390 wrote:
Batt wrote:THERE IS NO MORE WAITING FOR CONFIRMATION OF ROLES. THAT DAY HAS COME AND GONE A WHILE AGO. IF WE TRY AND CONFIRM YTHAN, THEN TOWN LOSES. IF YOU DO NOT BELIEVE YTHAN'S CLAIMS, YOU MUST LYNCH HIM. IF NOT, YOU TRY AND FIND SCUM ELSEWHERE. THERE IS NO "WAIT AND SEE" WITH YTHAN. IT'S IS HE SCUM OR IS HE TOWN, NO MIDDLE GROUND. NO WAITING FOR CONFIRMATION.
If there was only one scum, I'd agree with your fancy "OMG CAPS LOOK AT ME I MUST BE TOWN CUZ I CARE THIIIIIISSSSS MUCH".
Well, apparently you don't respond to normal type:
Nachomamma8 wrote:The problem is how many scum are left.
If there's four scum left like I'm assuming there are, then a mislynch + NK means that it'll be four scum versus 3 town which means even town had all the the votes, it would still be game over.
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Post Post #2797 (isolation #128) » Mon Nov 22, 2010 1:05 pm

Post by Battousai »

Also, please put up a case against me or at least link to your past one, if you made it, and reconfirm your convictions. Calling me obvscum isn't a case.
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Post Post #2801 (isolation #129) » Tue Nov 23, 2010 6:24 am

Post by Battousai »

Ythan wrote:Batt I'm talking about players disregarding you suddenly for no good reason. If you're not going to participate in that conversation then I'm not going to spend the two seconds it would take to dig up a case on you from any number of players.
Well since you did threaten to vote me today, I would think you would at least have a fucking case. So stop being so trying to disregard every little fucking thing I say.
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Post Post #2815 (isolation #130) » Sat Nov 27, 2010 6:59 am

Post by Battousai »

Locke: Everything you've said about kunk could mostly be applied to holy. Why kunk over holy?

Kunk: Why holy? All you've said about her recently was that she's obvscum (paraphrasing). Can you give us a case?
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Post Post #2830 (isolation #131) » Mon Nov 29, 2010 9:19 am

Post by Battousai »

I did vote ythan earlier, however the mod must have missed it. But I'll unvote now anyways

There is, however, reason not to vote. That reason is that voting is pointless as the only people who can manage a wagon would be kmd or ythan (in which case, a ythan led wagon would contain scum due to the numbers needed and would be suspect). You should know who I think is scum if you've payed attention this game (of my suspects, those that are alive are kmd, followed by kunk, rhinox, ythan, and holy). Since kmd will not be lynched, nor would ythan since kmd is not willing to vote him, that leaves kunk, you (rhinox), and holy. Now of the available options, I'm not as positive on those that are left. So, I'll fall back on the person I feel is most likely scum, as I'd rather be voting for someone who isn't likely to be lynched if I feel they are scum over someone who I'm iffy on, that is likely to be lynched.

unvote
Vote: Kmd
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Post Post #2844 (isolation #132) » Tue Nov 30, 2010 2:49 am

Post by Battousai »

If you read my post a bit more carefully. I voted for someone who I thought was scum over people who I thought were iffy (I only had kmd listed as scum, with neutral-scum for the others). And yes, there is a chance that there are two scum teams, which is why I did not eliminate Kmd from being town (though his town play this game has been horrible compared to what I've seen before, IMO).

The fact that kunk did not use his ability on holy, who he was "trying to get lynched" seems to me to say that Kunk is scum. Now holy... he could have been distancing himself from her in case he was killed (which would be probable, seeing as he probably planned on going out with "a bang"). Not sure on that, and will get more into that tomorrow.

Vote: Kunk
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Post Post #2847 (isolation #133) » Tue Nov 30, 2010 8:28 am

Post by Battousai »

Locke- What are you trying to get at? You asked why I voted KMD over kunk (barring your wording of obvtown), and I answered you. In fact I'll answer you again. The simple fact is that I was more certain of KMD, and I voted based on it. I did not have kunk on my scumlist. I had him neutral scum. That is just the middle of the spectrum,
leaning
scum. Why in the fuck would I vote someone who I think is leaning scum over someone I feel is obvscum?

The fact I brought up holy in my reasoning was to segway into the WIFOM of Kunk's vote on holy.
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Post Post #2850 (isolation #134) » Wed Dec 01, 2010 7:37 am

Post by Battousai »

Locke Lamora wrote:So neutral scum meant you didn't have anything against Kunk (or Amished, for that matter)? I thought they were players you had a semi-scum read on but not as scummy as KMD. I phrased those questions badly, though; my question about KMD should have been independent from the one about Kunk. I'll rephrase: I want to know why you included Kunk as leaning scum.
When I made the list, as I've stated previously, I had a small group of town, and a very small group of scum. That meant I had a large group of neutrals. That didn't seem to give much information, so I split the neutrals up (as I didn't want to show that someone, like kunk, is just as scummy as someone who is leaning town. So to sum it up, neutral scum and neutral town are closer to the neutral than to the town/scum spectrum.
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Post Post #2864 (isolation #135) » Mon Dec 06, 2010 3:35 am

Post by Battousai »

I'll get to it in a bit, but we should go back and look at the lynch wagons and update it based on new flips.
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Post Post #2867 (isolation #136) » Tue Dec 07, 2010 3:54 am

Post by Battousai »

Battousai wrote:For Nacho-

ISO73:

I came in strong against Ythan- I hadn't read yet, only saw the double claim, and jumped on Ythan because everyone else was on Richard/spouting Ythan must be town. My "assault" for the rest of the day was trying to slow the quick wagon on Richard down in order to get more information for the day and it wasn't proven that Richard was beyond a doubt scum at that point (Ythan could have been lying/third party RB). I "distanced from the wagon" I didn't think Richard was scum, but the quick wagon on him earlier was scummy and his lynch would have given us information. ---- To sum up that paragraph- I've been vocally against Ythan, while my votes weren't. I could see that as me trying to distance myself from him, but you can't really hold that against me UNTIL Ythan flips as the basis of the argument is derived from BOTH me and Ythan are scum.

Second paragragh- Plum suspicioun was based on the fact Plum/KMD were basically the same player. Everything Plum said KMD supported. Everything KMD said, Plum supported just about. This was the strongest relationship in the game in my mind. I was on KMD that day and focused on him (tangently focused on Plum for her defense of him and the way she waved me off as scum for attacking him) and therefore was left near the end of the day with the option of a Plum or Chrono lynch. Who should I want lynched, the person who walks hand in hand with the scummiest player in the game, or the person I felt was neutral scum? I went with Plum, independently scummy based on Raider's vote hopping D1, and her buddying to a player that should be unknown alignment to her.

To the fact that it was unlikely to wagon 2 scum players at the end of day when we previously had 4 town mislynches... Statistically, as more town players die, the more likely scum will be lynched. With 8 down (I think 8 down at the time) and with an estimated 6 scum, the chances of wagoning scum is 40% (6/15). For the second, thats 35.7% (5/14). But that doesn't account for the human element.

KMD hate- I know this is WIFOM, but it at least makes sense. Since there were like 0 successful doc protects, wouldn't it have been more likely for scum to just NK KMD than try and get him lynched?
I think I've answered this exact post 3 times now. I don't know what you want extra. Your 74, is basically a rehash of 73 in response to someone defending some of the actions I made, and not really addressed at me.
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Post Post #2868 (isolation #137) » Tue Dec 07, 2010 4:31 am

Post by Battousai »

from KMD, editted to show flips/name changes and I editted out flipped town from his notes-

Shattered Viewpoint
(12) -
Ythan
,
EGL
, esurio,
SSBF
,
kunkstar
,
Charlie
,
kmd
, holycon,
towmz
,
fishy
, Batt,
millar13

Plum
(3) -
Jahudo
, nachomamma8,
Michel

RichardGHP
(3) -
Xite
,
Plum
,
Chrono

SSBF
(1) -
Shattered Viewpoint

Chrono
(1) - rhinox
Michel (1) - Diacria


Not Voting (2) - Locke,
RichardGHP


On the Shattered wagon: Esurio, Amished, holy, Batt
On the Richard mini-wagon: Chro
Wasted vote or no vote: Rhinox, Locke

Nacho were on a wagon that was large at one point. Shattered flipped town, so it's not a counter wagon to a scumbuddy. They get town points. I have massive town reads on holy, so they're fine. Esurio are early enough on the wagon that it's fine.

ScumSet TM - {Amished, Batt} , {
Chro
}, {Rhinox, Locke}
---In theory, each ScumSet TM should include at least one scum.

Day 2:
EGL
(9) - nachomamma8,
jahudo
, Locke Lamora,
Charlie
,
KMD
,
RichardGHP
, rhinox, esurio
RichardGHP
(5) -
fishy
,
Michel
,
kunkstar
,
Xite
,
SSBF

Charlie
(2) -
Twomz

Charlie
(1) -
Chrono

Chrono
(1) - holycon
Michel
(1) - Batt
Not Voting (4) -
EGL
,
Plum
,
millar13
,
Ythan


EGL lynch: nachomamma8, Locke Lamora, rhinox, esurio
Wasted/No vote: Chro, Holy, Batt

Nacho are early enough. We know my town reads.

ScumSet TM - {Locke, Rhinox, Esurio} , {Chro, Batt}

Day 3:
RichardGHP
(12) –
Ythan
,
SSBF
,
Jahudo
,
Chrono
, Nachomamma8, Battousai, holycon, rhinox
SSBF
(8) –
Kunkstar
,
xite
,
Plum
MichelSableheart
,
KMD
,
RichardGHP
, Locke Lamora
Battousai (1) –
Fishy

Fishy
(1) – esuriospiritus
Not Voting (1) -
Charlie


Richard lynch: Chronopie, Nachomamma8, Battousai, holycon, rhinox
Wasted/No vote: Esurio

Anyone on the Day 1 Richard Mini-wagon AND this Richard lynch is removed from THIS ScumSet TM AND the previous Richard ScumSet TM for consistency points. Chro is the only one who fits. Not removing early votes because a Richard vote out of the gate could still be opportunistic (Yes, I'm going with a qualitative reason rather than quantitative. Deal with it.)

I'm starting to think SSBF is scum. because he was next to the Richard wagon. Hard to call anyone on that wagon scum until we see a flip. Massive town points to anyone on it if he flips scum, but it could be a ScumSet TM if he flips town. Need a SSBF flip before I can go back to it. Calling it null until then.

ScumSet TM - {Nachomamma8, Battousai, rhinox} , {}

ScumSet TMs for each Day:
Day 1: {
Amished
,
Batt
} , {}, {
Rhinox
,
Locke
}
Day 2: {
Locke
,
Rhinox
,
Esurio
} , {
Chro
,
Batt
}
Day 3: {
Nachomamma8
,
Battousai
,
rhinox
} , {}

Number of Days included in ScumSet TM's by player:
3:Rhinox, Batt

2:Locke

1: Amished, Nacho, Chro, esurio

0: holy


So with at least one scum in each set...
-must be scum.
-
Rhinox and Batt
are very likely scum.

^Those are the players most worth lynching today. If I'm wrong, the next ones to look at are the ones in orange: Locke.

Smash Bras being town would make Amished, Locke Lamora another set for Day 3. This would upgrade Amished to Orange and Locke to red.

If Smash Bras is town, Rhinox, Batt, and Locke are the most likely scum.

The biggest change is basically Locke. It's a connection between him and Smash Bras.




This is all I have so far, I'll get into later days if needed. I'll make an opinion later, got class.
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Post Post #2871 (isolation #138) » Tue Dec 07, 2010 2:06 pm

Post by Battousai »

Locke- I must have missed your question. I think it was mainly the fact I wasn't really paying attention and it was scummy that kunk wouldn't vig the person he was voting for (which by itself is enough to vote him for inconsistancy). Now why I picked that post of Kmd's? I was going to do my own VC analysis (a basic highlight town/highlight scum) for the first two days, then I remembered Kmd did one and thought it would be faster just to copy and edit as needed.

Now, onto my analysis of sorts.

Scummy- Rhinox, Nacho, Locke for theory that scum try to vote differently from each other D1,
Scummy- Rhinox for theory that scum, when they can, will vote for another scum in the beginning game, especially when there is no support via vote for the lynch
Scummy- Rhinox, Nacho, Locke, esurio for theory that at least 1 scum would be on a lynching wagon in early days
Scummy- Holycon for theory that scum, when they can, will vote for another scum to early distance in the beginning game, especially when there is no support via vote for the lynch

Rhinox +3
Nacho +2
Locke +2
Holycon +1

I believe scum would be among these four, with the greatest chance being Rhinox. This is all pretty weak, so I don't feel comfortable voting until I do some ISO's.
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Post Post #2873 (isolation #139) » Wed Dec 08, 2010 2:17 am

Post by Battousai »

Excuse me for not paying attention one day of the fucking year wupdedo. When a vig fucking kills someone who they did not suspect, I went on it. Excuse me for not remembering that he claimed VT at that exact moment. Sorry that I saw something as scummy and pounced. Sorry for trying to fucking catch scum. Sorrrrrrry. He still got lynched and you got some votes.

Where did I give esurio a scum point in my last post? No where, that's where. I'm using the VC to narrow down the fields, and I fucking did. Now, I'm looking into Rhinox first, as he had the most of the four. Now, are you trying to dismiss this whole thing by adding in Esurio, which I did not give a scumpoint.

Now I'm fucking late for class....
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Post Post #2886 (isolation #140) » Fri Dec 10, 2010 9:39 am

Post by Battousai »

Locke- I wasn't acting like kunk being a vig was not new information, I "acted" as if kunk being a vig impossible due to the fact that he killed Kmd. We just reacted to different reasons. Personally, I see town lie in massclaim more than I see a day vig kill someone they weren't suspicious of (especially if the rest of the town believed the person was town).

Locke- Oh ok, I missed it probably due to seeing the Rhinox, nacho, locke combo in both the first and third point and glanced over it. Point still stands that scum is among them (though not for the reason I thought), but from it I'm more suspicious of Rhinox over esurio/holy.

Locke- If there are two scum teams, then I would imagine that there are two left (but that also assumes the Columbian team has been wiped out), otherwise I would guess 1-2 for only 1 team left.

Nacho- Third party RB is in reference to there being an anti-town RB in the game that could incriminate both Richard and Ythan by blocking one of them (since the both claimed or alluded to wanting to kill millar the day before) and is third party to richard and ythan (first and second party).

Nacho- I'll have to go back and look to see if I did attack players on the wagon (I think I did), but for the most part I was trying to slow down the Richard wagon due to everyone saying that Richard or Ythan is lieing and that Richard is most likely lieing over Ythan and to attack a third party wouldn't get much support nor slow down a building wagon.

Nacho- Kmd's alignment was not based on Plum's actions towards Kmd, but Plum's alignment was mostly based on Plum's actions towards Kmd. If you look at Kmd's play, especially the night kill analysis, that seems not like town Kmd. Apparently Kmd was playing suboptimally to what I came to expect (the night action analysis was really unuseful, and he didn't even bother to finish it).

Nacho- 74 wasn't really pointed at me, but to Jahudo's? defense of me. Could you rephrase it a bit so I know exactly what questions you have of me?

Nacho- 75 I don't my style of attacks on Kmd weakened the case, as it shouldn't. It's the points I made that mattered. You have a reasonable read on it, but you are wrong. I was convinced that Kmd was not scum. He acted not to what I expected of him, and I guess I tunneled on him for it.

Nacho- 75 It's a town action that benefits scum. It appears he is attacking scummy people, but it benefits scum as he is not trying to lynch scummy people with multiple votes (aka remove votes from scum).

Rhinox- When you suppose that the amount of scum to be less in this game, did you look at the last last will game? I believe there were 2 teams of 3 scum. Due to crosskills the total may be less (especially since the town didn't have many PR's) than 6, but 4 or 5 may be reasonable. Why would 3 scum be an adequate replacement for 2 teams of 3?
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Post Post #2893 (isolation #141) » Tue Dec 14, 2010 2:10 am

Post by Battousai »

Sorry I've been gone. Had only sporadic internet connection lately.

Nacho- SSBF case... It was more to the fact that I thought scum were pushing the ani wagon. So I voted the wagon with the least scum on it (since I didn't have much of a case on either ani or SSBF and by that time one of the two were going to be lynched no matter what).
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Post Post #2897 (isolation #142) » Wed Dec 15, 2010 7:46 am

Post by Battousai »

Nacho- I know you are reading ISO's for scumminess, but could you respond to my response?

Holy- Why me and esurio? Is it a combination of us or both individually? Any type of case you would like to submit?
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Post Post #2901 (isolation #143) » Thu Dec 16, 2010 4:08 am

Post by Battousai »

holycon wrote:on you and esurio is more of just it seem you two are pointing fingers at everyone BUT each other mostly just a feeling i have
Can you link any points both of us have made that would lead you to feel this way?
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Post Post #2903 (isolation #144) » Thu Dec 16, 2010 7:37 am

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Rhinox- Skimmed the post since you are not entirely done (says you need to look at timing and what not), but the fact that I voted Plum over Chrono shouldn't be a surprise. KMD and Plum connection was very present, as I said. Not going after Plum when I had the chance would have been stupid (though now, it seems it was stupid due to chrono being scum and not plum).
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Post Post #2910 (isolation #145) » Sat Dec 18, 2010 5:37 am

Post by Battousai »

Nacho- I haven't really thought the scum designated anyone to get votes, as that would be hard to pull off, plus the ingrained thought process of mafia to not get your partners lynched. Now, a block usually important. Scum would work together with aggression and get town to look away from the block and more to the outsiders (of course, town can be tricked into following said block). I think it makes perfect sense for two scum to agree with each other, especially if there is not much pressure on one.

Locke- Honestly, no one. I don't have confident reads on anyone really. If the situation was vote or be lynched, then I'd go with either Rhinox (for previous reasoning) or Esurio (info that has been found in rereading by Nacho? and the fact that since it's been brought up and people are paying attention, Esurio seems to have gone back to lurking).

Holy-
Battousai wrote:
holycon wrote:on you and esurio is more of just it seem you two are pointing fingers at everyone BUT each other mostly just a feeling i have
Can you link any points both of us have made that would lead you to feel this way?
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Post Post #2916 (isolation #146) » Sun Dec 19, 2010 7:35 am

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holy- Why are you acting so anti-town? You haven't answer my question, twice. You then procede to vote me based on my relationship to esurio (I can only infer that your case is that me and Esurio haven't called each other scum). I think the main reason why I haven't attacked Esurio is 1) Tunnelling on Kmd 2) Esurio has agreed with me a few times, which is more than most. So, unless you come up with an actual case, I please ask you to remove your vote instead of half-assing it.
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Post Post #2918 (isolation #147) » Sun Dec 19, 2010 7:56 am

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Because I can't tell if she is town anti-town or scum anti-town. Her play has been mostly town anti-town, but I just don't know anymore.
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Post Post #2921 (isolation #148) » Sun Dec 19, 2010 8:23 am

Post by Battousai »

Damn, didn't even notice the deadline was so soon, figured 3-4 more days.

Holy- No, I said I thought she wasn't scum. At the time, I felt she was attacking scum with me.

Vote: Rhinox
- One vote won't due anything, but I tend to think Rhinox is scum (look at my previous post for reasoning) and voting is better than not at deadline.
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Post Post #2932 (isolation #149) » Sun Dec 19, 2010 3:25 pm

Post by Battousai »

With holy, it was a matter of anti-town vs scummy. I didn't have a read on esurio, and nacho I had as leaning town (I actually came back on tonight just in case I got lynched so I could give my vote to him). Esurio was able to get by me because he agreed with me to some degree early game and entered the game townish. That gave him a free pass from me until I read him in ISO, but with this game, I didn't really put as much effort as I should have. Concerning the Kmd tunnelling- I was pretty sure he was scum, as he was not acting like I expected he would (NK wifom was awful, really). I guess he just didn't put as much effort either seeing as he created a thread in GD/MD stating that he didn't like mafia anymore/quiting/it was a chore.

I just wish I was scum this game. Not because scum won, but because I was able to get off the lynching block so often.

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