Last Will Mafia II (Over)
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Battousai Mafia Scum
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Why should we believe you over Richard? Tell us why you targetted millar. I'm more hesitant in believing you because you didn't have a vote out last night before deadline hit. I would think that if you thought millar scummy, you would have at least put a vote on him or at least on EGL (making millar a number 2 suspect of sorts).
Vote: Ythan-
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Battousai Mafia Scum
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I haven't fully read the thread yet as I'm still on D1, so I haven't gotten that far. Day-BP? Personally, I would have tried to lynch him for even claiming that.
MSH- Just because it is a confirmed ability, it is not a confirmed alignment. If Ythan-scum wanted to, he could have not used the power and instead saved it for later. Lieing about the kill would put Richard in a tight spot and considering he was number 2 on the vote count, would most likely have people believing him over Richard. Now this mislynch for his own lynch is not correct, IMO. Ythan-scum would have quite a few lies he could tell that would explain why Richard was town. The exact same lies/reasons, I won't list, can be used by Richard-scum/town to explain why Ythan and himself are both telling the truth if he wished to play it that way.
Unvote
Back to reading-
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Battousai Mafia Scum
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Wow, someone else picking up on the fact that Ythan is not confirmed as USING his power nor is town because he HAS a power... Now I haven't read far enough in to get a sense of whether Ythan and/or Richard are scummy from their posts (I've skimmed the thread and I am focusing on vote analysis for D1-D2 right now), but assuming that one of them is lieing is just wrong and then using past read to justify it is wrong. Hell, all of today has been focused on these two players. What about SSBF? IIRC, someone said we can lynch him tomorrow, when the Richard-Ythan votes started coming. There is plenty more to discuss here and waiting for the replacements to respond is the only reason why someone didn't hammer makes me believe that Richard may be town. Votes typically don't come flying in that easily unless it is backed by scum.-
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Battousai Mafia Scum
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Since I don't like telling people to discuss something without giving any of my own input first, I went back to ISO someone who seemed scummy D1- Raider
As town, Raider seems to scumhunt early, which goes against his entire gameplay. However, I can't find him a game where he was scum (and not replaced in), so I can't honestly say this is a scumtell for him or him just deciding to act differently
Raider iso
6) Continues to vote hop, plus saying someone is scum for trying to make a case (seems like a joke, but still)
10) Doesn't believe a claim because it wasn't in the original Last Will.
12) Doesn't want to get reads on people early. Seems like his playstyle so far is to coast and probably hop on a wagon someone else creates
13) Complains about serious posting by Amished. Wants to extend RVS
17) Doesn't want votes passed around (null, as I think some townies may think that would be smart. However, he played in the first last will, so I would think he would know that that wasn't the case)
25) Just noticed he wasn't talking to someone in the game. He really still isn't all too serious about the game here
44) Is ok with lynching an empty slot, but not pressure voting a slot
FOS: Raider (currently Plum)-
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http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 21&start=0
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 95&start=0
Both of these are him as town, from the beginning. The scumhunting is much better in those games as compared to here. Also, that scum game you linked to is too different to count, IMO. People play differently when the IC in a newbie game.
Xite- How does
"Multiple people did tell Richard to kill Millar.
Ythan did hint that he was going to kill Millar.
This would have confirmed at least richard as town."
equal
"This would have confirmed at least richard as town."?
Also, reasoning for the SSBF vote?-
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Battousai Mafia Scum
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1) Thinking back, if Ythan did hint that he would kill millar, why would Richard-town try to protect millar?
2) "Does look a bit like..." is good enough for you to call someone confirmed town? Isn't there also a decent chance that Richard lied about his role and is fakeclaiming to have killed millar?
If richard is scum, then I speculate that Xite is also scum.-
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Amished- If he thought Richard was going to kill millar, he could save the vig kill, but still claim credit for the kill (relying on some townie reads on him, having said he would do it, and scum powers that would explain why he and Richard would both be town). If he was scum, I don't think he would kill millar when there are other targets that would go unnoticed. The only reason I see that he would, would be to get the town to focus away from a scum partner.
Xite91- "Because he was told to? Also, if Millar ended up alive, then we would have confirmed Richard as town." Yes, but town would have wasted a vig kill (2 if Richard is town), and millar would have ended up lynched (probably) and then Richard would be NK'd for being "confirmed." Also, isoing you turned up a quote from richard where he said he would not be the town slave and would not have his actions dictated by a random townie.
"It's a good chance, but I'd like to give it one more night to see, instead of a PR mislynch, besides, the way that night happenings went down, it just looks like the whole thing is a big set up"
You go from Richard is a liar, lynch him (4th on a counterclaim wagon)! To a Richard is confirmed town. To a let's give Richard one more night to see.
Now, I'm not even sure if I can that if Richard is scum then you are scum. You are scum, regardless.
vote: Xite91-
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Battousai Mafia Scum
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I believe the circumstances that you said would make Richard confirmed town (multiple people telling Richard to kill millar and Ythan hinting at killing millar) actually happened before this post. Therefore you DID confirm Richard as town.Xite91 wrote:Unvote
Just realized something.
Yesterday him and Ythan were speaking cryptically all day yesterday.
If you paid attention, you would notice that Ythan did claim to have a one shot kill.
Multiple people did tell Richard to kill Millar.
Ythan did hint that he was going to kill Millar.
This would have confirmed at least richard as town.
Okay that's the recap.
But hey, scum can be pretty crafty.
For instance, they killed twomz last night, proving that he was an inventor.
Therefore proving Ythan's one-shot.
Next, if they block Richard, they get rid of Ythan's one shot, kill a townie, and line up a lynch for the next day.
I'm going to believe Richard's claim for now.
That being said,
Vote:SSBF-
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Battousai Mafia Scum
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I'm not sure if you are lieing to cover for Ythan or what. A roleblocked person doesn't know they are roleblocked when they use their power nor after they use it. Also, you just believe Ythan that it is gone. You don't even consider the fact that he may be lieing about having the power still?Amished wrote:
Ok, so I might not have the most experience with 1-shot abilities, but if it's used up; that would almost certainly prove to me that it was used; and not roleblocked.Ythan wrote:Been having connectivity problems. If anyone still cares, I don't have my kill anymore but I don't know if it worked.
MSH- I would think that with this type of game (where if you die you can pass on your votes), that the scum team would be relatively small. For balance, I think there may be two groups (alternating kills, killed the same person N1/N2, etc.). If there were a large scum team of 6 players, they would always stay at 6 strong voting wise. If they are good enough or the town is bad enough, they can go to majority vote and win in N3. For a 23 player large game, that would be too short and since this is a second run for this type (typically different from the first, but more bugs worked out), I would think that would be worked out.
Xite- Your reaction to my accusations against you have been pretty null, I must say. But my gut is still saying you are scum. I really don't like the way you tried to direct a claimed PR to basically null out another's action and I don't like the fact that you jumped on the claimed PR for claiming to have targetted the person who died (just like what would happen if he targetted the person) when someone else who was also supposed to target the player claimed to have done so, claimed to have targetted the player. Initially, you do not even think the plan of getting some confirmed players all the way through. You basically gave a potential mafia RB a german shepard in which to herd the town down the path of destruction. Then when you hear the dog barking, you just run down the designated path it left for you without question.
Also, for all those who said Richard doesn't have a problem lieing. The game you are quoting where he lied was when he was TOWN. "Oh, he lied as town, he can't be trusted to tell the truth as scum!" Right now, I'd almost be willing to daykill someone just to end the day without all you being able to affect the end result.
MOD: I request you give me unlimited day kills rite now!!1!-
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xite-
1) Thanks for defending Amished. I really wanted you to respond to what I said and not him...
2) Town can give their vote to scum, plus the whole WIFOM of giving a vote to your scum buddy would make scum giving scum votes a bit more plausible. Plus the whole point was a worst-case-scenerio.
3) Why would null clear you? It doesn't make you more or less so I go to my fallback belief. Let me make my statements crystal. You wanted/actively supported Ythan and Richard targetting the same person. This plan, when vocalized, would lead a mafia RBer into wanting to block one of the two in order to get an extra kill on a townie plus 1 or 2 mislynches (assuming neither Ythan nor Richard are scum). Then when both Ythan and Richard claim to have targetted millar, you follow the RBer's plan and vote Richard without question.
Rhinox- nacho just voted Richard, so he's past fence-sitting.-
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MSH- Am I suspicious of Magua, yes. As much as xite? no. Magua didn't jump on the Richard wagon. He did, however, say he would vote Richard, gave a reason that seemed thought out (considered ythan lieing, no one lieing, etc.) but wanted the replacments to catch up. Then he goes AWOL.
MOD: Can you prod Magua and Richard please?-
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I don't agree with the assumption of one of you must be scum. I'm not the only one. Personally, I find your refusal to even acknowledge that you and Richard may both be town and the fact that today you've primarily been attempting to lynch Richard, suspect.Ythan wrote:I find your refusal to even acknowledge the benefit of our role information and the fact that today you've primarily been attempting to discredit it suspect.-
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Battousai Mafia Scum
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Ok, I think today has lasted a while. A Richard lynch is optimal here for information. However, I also feel that most likely that Richard/Ythan was roleblocked as an inventor claim would definately warrant a RB, but it didn't happen. Of the two, I feel that Richard is more scummy than Ythan (though I find Ythan's lack of playing today because he thinks Richard is scum suspicious as well). Richard failed to use his power until after he claimed, which is always suspicious of not even having the power. The quote Plum provided of Richard explaining why he didn't target millar was to avoid blocking a vig is suspicicous to what happened last night.
All in all, I'd be happy with a Richard lynch today
unvote, vote:RichardGHP-
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Dragged out, hardly used, and probably could be gotten tomorrow, but ya there is still some information but there is such a thing as TOO MUCH DATA. I don't think that is a problem here, but squeezing out the day to get that last bit just hurts the game as a whole, IMO.Xite91 wrote:@Bat - Okay, lets lynch SSBF.
But seriously, there's still info that could be gotten, especially right before deadline, but eh.
Amished- The person who I found scummy and voted for before trying to end the day- xite.-
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Ythan wrote:If you're just going to bitch about (perceived) grammatical flaws like a little, well, bitch, then why don't you go sit in the cornerwith meuntil the rest ofusthe playersare finished playing the game.
I'm starting to waiver now. I'm not that great with the English language, but it would seem 1551 was grammatically incorrect. However, it also seems like your sentence may be right. I just don't care enough to try and find a source to backup my claim.
If you were wondering, yes, I do find you scummy.-
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Battousai Mafia Scum
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Man, you really aren't paying attention to this game. What about me trying to get the Richard wagon to stop (when it reached L-1 quickly). How about when I tried to get discussion started so there would be more to go on tomorrow by bringing up raider/Plum as acting suspicious when I read the thread when I replaced in. Also, I made a case against Xite. All of this happened today, whereas today, you mostly just counterclaimed the kill on millar and asked why Richard hasn't been lynched(except when people addressed you specifically).Ythan wrote:Battousai wrote:Why hasn't Richard been lynched, is useful?Talk about grammar.Anyway, it's a hell of a lot more relevant to the game than anything I'm seeing you post.-
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Rhinox, my vote on Richard, I believe, is well explained. The question of whether Ythan is the lynch tomorrow is no. I find his actions today to be scummy, but his reactions to our little banter gave me a pro-town feel for him. My reason for voting Richard isn't the cop and his guilty you've quoted. I'm lynching him for information, but I also suspect there is a decent chance he is actually scum which would give us even more information.
EDIT: holy- read the vote count more closely, it says it takes 12 to lynch since that is majority for 23 players.-
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For god's sake, yes! Hammer already, lol.
Charlie- Why do you want to wait 2 days to get actual information? What is so damn important that every day has to go to deadline? Deadline is a MAXIMUM limit of time and should not be strived for. If information has exchanged and the day isn't wasted (I.E. a quicklynch), then stretching the days only hampers the town and the game itself. I hate this site's deadline meta, it's asinine.
If you iso me and look for my vote on Richard, soon after that I explain why I want the day to end.-
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Jahudo wrote:
What I'll do is keep trying to understand the SSBF wagon, most likely. There's only a few Amished points I understand but the rest is like latin to me.Rhinox wrote:My main reservation is this: what happens tomorrow if we lynch richard and he flips town?
Not unless he does something scummy. If Richard is town, then I'll resign myself for the moment to believe that someone used a roleblock that makes no logical sense no matter their alignment.Rhinox wrote:is Ythan the autolynch tomorrow if Richard is town?
So you think that it is more likely that someone used a roleblock than for Ythan to have lied about using his vig ability?-
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My "claim" was a joke meant towards the players who were hesitant in hammering and on my insistance that someone hammer at the end of the day. Nothing more. I even go and say I will explain something tomorrow (I'm on slow/unrelable internet right now, so will have to wait till Monday). If I thought I won, why would I continue the charade that there is going to be a tomorrow?
Also, to the people voting ani... is he being opportunistic or is he just acting noobish? Would scum-ani try and get an opportunistic lynch on me instead of someone else (ie SSBF who was the second leading wagon at the end of yesterday)?
Esurio- I still find that raider's playstyle was scummy, using his voting style to mask any scummy actions he would do (pay attention to one hand, and ignore the other). Plum's actions yesterday/today has done nothing to swade that (she has pretty much stayed out of the light).-
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Info this post, analysis next (with answers to questions posed to me and/or anything needing to be said for today).
Xite 1251- more apt to believe richard as town
richard claims millar's death
ythan claims millar's death
ythan votes millar ^ (3 votes richard)
Battousai votes Ythan (1 vote Ythan). Wants to know why Ythan targetted millar and hesitant in believing Ythan due to not voting Millar or anybody before deadline.
Ythan says millar wasn't lynched due to day-bp claim. Thought it clear he would target millar.
MSH fos richard, claims ythan-lie would create a mislynch for his own lynch, brings up roleblocker
locke votes richard, Richards responses weren't adding up yesterday, agrees with MSH on ythan-lie (4 votes richard)
Battousai unvotes Ythan (0 votes Ythan). Claims to not have fully read thread yet. Claims confirmed power =/= confirmed alignment and that Ythan scum could save power for later and relying on people believing him over Richard when millar died and that Ythanscum lieing =/= Ythan lynch tomorrow due to being able to lie out of it.
SSBF votes Richard (7 votes richard) tells Richard to ellaborate on why he killed millar. Claims hiding info =/= town motivation, plus his already scummy play. Supports charlie, ani, chrono, possible MSH lynch as backup.
Richard claims roleblocked, ythan town.
Xite votes Richard (8 votes richard), quotes ythan's killed millar claim and says he expected something of the like.
Jahudo claims to be good with a Richard lynch, doesn't think Ythan is scum. Wants to wait for vote count
Jahudo votes Richard after realizing how many it took to lynch (9 votes Richard)
Chrono votes Richard (10 votes Richard), Based on role mechanic, claims if Ythan used his kill on Millar then Richard didn't use his ability, which is against what Richard claim.
Ani votes Richard (11 votes Richard). Gives no reason why.
Amished puts out intent to vote (hammer) richard due to Ythan's claim and millar dieing. Asks Richard about Rber and why they block someone planning on killing a townie. Doubtful answer will effect his vote.
Richard sticks to RB theory
Magua doesn't want day to end until replacements caught up so holds vote. Doesn't believe RB theory. Believes Richard lieing is most likely of the 3 talked about theories.
Ani unvotes Richard (10 votes Richard). Wants to avoid quickhammer.
Ythan doesn't like Richard's FOS on Magua (Mod error led Magua to believe Richard voted Ythan when he wasn't).
Kmd doesn't understand Ythan's claimed night action. Calls Richard obvtown, 2-3 scum on wagon.
Locke wants Ythan to confirm whether he still has role on idea that Rbing a 1-shot ability lets you keep the power.
Amished summerized what happened, to Kmd. Says Richard or Kmd hasn't provided logical reason for RB. Likes Locke's question. Trusts Ythan a lot more than Richard.
Rhinox answers Amished question/request with influence a Richard mislynch, preventing BP death results in lost day (scum would believe BP claim), didn't know who Ythan was going to kill, and wanted to protect self from vig, and predicted both target millar = 2 mislynches. Claims RB should have blocked Twomz N1.
Kmd claims ythan could have not used kill. Can see RB theory. Ythan hasn't claimed so alignment is unknown.
Amished wants Kmd to prove Ythan was scummy, notes Ythan was not on Kmd's scum lists. Doesn't think Ythan is scummy at all.
Kmd refutes the not on scum list claim with quoted list
holycon says that since ythan got power that confirms him, believes richard claim
Battousai notes that Ythan is not confirmed as using his power or alignment. Wants more discussion focused away from Richard/Ythan, believes Richard is town due to the speed of the L-1 wagon.
Battousai gives out a target for discussion in Raider/Plum with iso. FOS's Raider
Ythan offers to claim to get Richard lynched
Kmd doesn't want Ythan to claim if he still has the kill and has role related info against Richard
Xite unvotes Richard (9 votes Richard). Recaps what happened yesterday (cryptic hints about Richard/Ythan planning to kill Millar). Says this would confirm Richard as town. Calls scum crafty and possible they killed twomz to prove 1shot and blocking richard would result in loss of 1shot, death of townie, mislynch lined up. Revotes SSBF (3 votes SSBF).
At this point the Richard wagon starts to get smaller with less force and discussion away from Richard/Ythan directly starts a bit.-
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KMD- “Batt what information would you get from a richard town flip.”
Since I believe the initial Richard wagon formed too quickly and most likely had scum on it or had intention to vote (regardless of Richard's alignment), knowing the alignment would shift focus to how scum would act with the wagon and away from how scum would react to their partner's wagon. These posts right here is the information I received and the reason I didn't want to post it in twilight was to prevent WIFOM (scum could kill me for being right or for being wrong) and I didn't want to chance the town's reaction.
Charlie 1634- logic fail. Just because he killed millar (a townie btw), doesn't mean Ythan didn't due it as scum (though there were better targets if his plan was to kill people who are considered more likely town by the town.
Holycon 1639- Notes my joke vote/reaction. Doesn't take a stance buts wants people to notice it.
Ythan 1670- elaborate please, the post you are commenting on focuses on myself, ani, and plum. Which part was too scummy too be scum and do you find it scummy?
Xite 1690- That line is what was the focus of our exchange yesterday. What I think is tripping Nacho up is that what you actually posted was that Richard is confirmed town based on what happened the day before. Then you go on to night speculation. What I think, you think, is that the certain actions that would lead to Richard as being confirmed town is what you posted after you said Richard is confirmed town (the nightkill speculation). You confirming Richard should have came after the nightkill speculation in that post, not before.
Plum 1697- Before I started rereading the thread, I read the final vote count of the previous day. Then when Ythan claimed to have killed Millar, I found it hard to believe he would kill someone he didn't suspect enough to vote against. I unvoted due to Ythan saying Millar claimed day-BP.
Ythan, please participate. You said you had more time for the game, but you've done nothing today and little yesterday.
..........................
I believe once scum knew there was a counter claim, they believed one of the two would be lynched. I think they would jump on early. I left out Ythan since he counterclaimed and I believe town/scum would vote Ricard then, equally.
Locke vote is early, however he backs up his vote with previous day actions (though vague).
(Locke)
SSBF's vote is early as well. This whole post strikes me as off. Wants Richard to share his information, but is voting him. This is telling me he thinks Richard is scum (the vote) but at the same time talks to Richard as if he is town. That, combined with stating he supports a lynch on 3-4 others if Richard doesn't get lynched puts him as more likely scum than Locke.
(SSBF>Locke)
Xite's vote is only the 4th (based on the number of players not actual number of votes). With so many still alive, I would classify this as early. I do not like the fact that you expected Ythan to counter claim, but earlier you state you are more apt to believe Richard is town due to meta (however you then go on
to say he is either scum or a detriment to the town and should be lynched).
(SSBF>Xite>Locke)
Jahudo vote is early (player wise, but vote wise is mid to near end). Doesn't give reason for why. However he waits for a vote count before voting (or a confirmation that it wasn't too near end.
(SSBF>Xite>Jahudo>Locke)
Chrono puts wagon at L-2 and uses IIoA (seems to shrug off commenting on whether Richard is scummy and sticks to it being impossible for him to be telling the truth based on his claimed role).
(SSBF>Chrono>Xite>Jahudo>Locke)
Ani puts Richard at L-1, with no reason why, though unvotes when notices it is L-1
(SSBF>Ani>Chrono>Xite>Jahudo>Locke)
Amished has intent to hammer. Questions Richard, even though he doesn't seem to care about the answer. I see no reason why he wouldn't hammer, then if he was town.
(SSBF>Ani>Chrono>Amished>Xite>Jahudo>Locke)
Magua doesn't explicitly claim to want to hammer Richard but states doesn't want day to end, so I believe he was thinking of hammering.
(SSBF>Ani>Chrono>Amished>Xite>Jaudo>Locke>Magua)
Holycon doesn't issue a want to vote for Richard, but he does believe Ythan over Richard. Logic fail in post, calling Ythan town for having a power. I find this in and of itself scummy.
Vote: SSBFfor now. I like having my vote out without it being backed up by random. Will focus more of a case tomorrow as I gotta get home.-
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Chrono- To me, it seemed like you weren't giving any input, just restating facts and using the facts to say this is the truth. You don't comment on past play by Richard, why Richard would lie, whether you believe the Ythan claim over a Richard claim and why. That, to me, seems like you are getting rid of responsibility because facts cannot be disputed, whereas what you feel and why can be.
SSBF- I think scum can jump on later, but that is usually a tell of not knowing who would be lynched and not wanting to put forward a strong case to get the wagon forming. In this case, there was reason for the lynch and it seemed that a Ythan/Richard lynch would be inevitable. So, in order to avoid the scrutiny of being near the end of the wagon, they would vote sooner rather than later. This is all WIFOM, but I still believe my theory is more likely correct.
I just felt that post was off. If you felt that Richard was lieing, as proposed by your vote, you would think others would as well. I think that if you felt that one of them was lieing scum (since you didn't think it was Ythan, it would be Richard) you would think the lynch of the day would be Richard/Ythan (moreso Richard). Why you brought up being satisfied with other lynches in the same post (meaning nothing had changed from your vote), is off as it shows that you believed that Richard/Ythan may escape the noose.
xite-
What you said is not what you meant. I'm not calling you scum for it anymore as I have realized this. I'm just pointing out for Nacho that you did not word this post correctly and that is what is causing the confusion. Understand? If not, I'm not talking about it anymore and hopefully Nacho understands, so you won't bang your head into a wall.Xite91 wrote:Unvote
Just realized something.
Yesterday him and Ythan were speaking cryptically all day yesterday.
If you paid attention, you would notice that Ythan did claim to have a one shot kill.
Multiple people did tell Richard to kill Millar.
Ythan did hint that he was going to kill Millar.
This would haveMeaning you are talking about the aboveconfirmed at least richard as townSince above happened, = ricard is confirmed town.
Below is night speculation, which you MEANT to say if this happened it would mean Richard is confirmed town
Okay that's the recap.
But hey, scum can be pretty crafty.
For instance, they killed twomz last night, proving that he was an inventor.
Therefore proving Ythan's one-shot.
Next, if they block Richard, they get rid of Ythan's one shot, kill a townie, and line up a lynch for the next day.
I'm going to believe Richard's claim for now.
That being said,
Vote:SSBF
Spoiler: more apt to believe Richard town based on meta, bolded
That is why I gave my information so you can know what I'm drawing from if you do not understand (in retrospect I should have used spoiler tags to avoid unnecessary wall post). The rating is based on who voted Richard and those who voiced intent to vote. Therefore, when judging on who should be higher or lower, take into consideration it is a limited pool and minor differences can push someone farther up the chain. The first 3 I would label as scummy, and would definitely consider voting or at least need more focus put onto them.
Putting Richard at L-1 without explaining why (which leads to assumptions which can be defended by "I didn't think that") is pretty scummy. His unvote showed either he didn't know the vote count and didn't want the hammer to happen yet (voting without knowing the VC is anti-town at best) or he wants to appear to be hesitant in a hammer (which is scummy).
Amished's question is what made it scummy. He basically says that he doesn't think the answer will affect his reason to vote. Therefore the question seemed to be more a formality to what a townie would do. However this isn't a strong tell and is why he is only 4th.
....
ISOing SSBF now, ani later, chrono even later this game day.-
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Battousai Mafia Scum
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I'm almost done with the SSBF ISO, class about to start. Tomorrow it should be done, as it is taking longer because I'm trying a new method of analysis (to me) along with the standard.
Ythan, I would say, is the scummiest player that people think is town in this game. If anyone else would post like him, those same people would probably attack him for active lurking.-
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So close to finishing, about 40 more minutes and it will be done. I'll post this during a break in classes tomorrow. FYI, it's taking awhile because one method wasn't working (the new one, and I got distracted with an Adelish vote analysis from SSBF's post saying Dia was bandwagoning, where I didn't see too much of it.-
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Don't know the best way to post this, as it spans 23 names and there were over 130 votes D1. The best I could do is the following. To read it better, zooming in would help (cntrl + for many PCs). I just got done with it so I haven't analyzed yet, but the reason I did this was to check SSBF's statement (and then some). He was wrong about Diacria. They were either 1st, second, or third on any wagon (up to the his post). Tomorrow, I'll do more analysis and go on to explain some points I have against SSBF.
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Looking back on the D1 vote count, the only 2 people that seem to stand out is Jahudo, chrono, magua, Locke, and ani.
Jahudo, I don't like his switch from the shattered wagon to the raider wagon. He switched from a declining wagon to a wagon that was picking up speed. Not too suspicious but enough to wonder about his alignment (since I've had a null read on him so far).
The other 4 are suspicious since D1 they did not vote for anyone but a confirmed townie.-
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Rhinox- It's not my fault that I didn't find too much relevant issue in the vote chart. I posted it because it took me over an hour to do and I figured someone else might be able to use it who doesn't feel like wasting their time.
I'm good at pinging town tells. I can ping yours allllll night long.Kmd4390 wrote:Battousai - Replaced Pittbunny who I was sure was scum. Started out scummy. Then went and pinged one of my solid town tells. WTF BATT.
Not sure on that one. The wagon started to dwindle and Jahudo switched to Raider as that wagon was picking up steam. Seemed to me that Jahudo-scum switched votes to a wagon that was more likely to be lynched. Not knowing Raider's alignment is hard to judge if he might have been pre-bussing or just trying to get someone lynched.Kmd4390 wrote:Jahudo and Nacho were on a wagon that was large at one point. Shattered flipped town, so it's not a counter wagon to a scumbuddy. They get town points.
I'd be more willing to go back to my SSBF vote once Ythan starts contributing more than what he has this last couple days.-
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Battousai Mafia Scum
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Kind of agreeing here. SSBF's post seems to be from a scum stance. It is understandable for Amished not to have contributed much, since, you know, he was prodded... But when he came back he has started making points and so forth, but you zero in on this.Amished wrote:
So... am I scummy for this? How is this a useful post at this point since there's absolutely no analysis combined with it?Super Smash Bros. Fan wrote:Will post more tomorrow since I don't have time to make a big post, but this caught my attention
This quote is ironic to me. Amished is claiming that we haven't said anything lately (Which I disagree with, there is always something to comment on and people making useful posts) yet as of this post, he hasn't really done that much scum hunting today.Amished wrote:Jesus Christ you guys haven't said shit lately.
@KMD- Anyone else you are not sure of that I can suspect so you will think they are town?-
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Battousai Mafia Scum
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@Charlie- If you have 2 or so hours to kill, you try making another voting spreadsheet for D2/D3. It's not fun. It's probably easier to make when you add onto it as the day goes on. What did you mean by the dictating of things? Also, your post about my iso 41 and 43. Take a stance on it. Tell me if you think it is scummy or tell me if it is townie. Tell me if it would most likely come from scum than town. Give me something other than "That's a bit strange."
"Content generation from these people are excellent and should be referred back again:
Kmd4390 (everything)
Battousai (vote count spreadsheet)
esuriospiritus (breakdown analysis of wagons)
Rhinox (said that there is a lot of useless thing happening and this rings true; goodposting)
Jahudo (red panda)"
My vote count spreadsheet was not content, it was information. Rhinox's one post should not be enough to give him a pass for the day, especially when it is a comment that a lot of useless things are happening. I don't know what you mean by red panda.
"Ythan (Probably town, but still a good lynch. Yes.)"
No. If you have a town read, enough so that you can call him probable town, you should not lynch him. If you did and you were in lylo, it will lessen your chances of getting a correct lynch. I would because I have a null read on him, but his anti-town play is what pushed my vote.
@Kmd- Do you normally try and get people lynched (via rallying for votes against them) and then switch and try and get them to look at someone you actually find scummy? 'Cause that is what you did with Ythan and I was wondering what the mentallity behind it is. Do you find people try to defend themselves through action when you give them an out like that? By going for him do you feel that you put him in the position to try and show his towniness to you by doing what you want?-
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Battousai Mafia Scum
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I agree with xite on your information/content tm analysis post. Leaving out players you think are town in order to get a better judgement on those you don't is fine, however in the sense you determined who was scum, it would be best to put those who you feel is town in there as well. This way you can balance out those reads and see if someone you find townie is acting in a similar way of someone you have thought of as scummy.-
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Newer vote count on top 2 voters:
Super Smash Bros. Fan (9) - Amished,Ythan (4),Xite91, Locke Lamora,rhinox (2)
animorpherv1 (8) - Super Smash Bros. Fan (3),Jahudo,Charlie, kmd (2),holycon
Not voting the above
ani
batt
chrono
nacho
plum
esurio
prob town: esurio
lower scale town: jahudo, rhinox
lower scale scum: holy, chrono, xite, ythan, plum
prob scum: charlie
Newer vote count on top 2 voters:
Super Smash Bros. Fan (9) -Amished, Ythan (4),Xite91,Locke Lamora,rhinox (2)
animorpherv1 (8) -Super Smash Bros. Fan (3), Jahudo,Charlie, kmd (2),holycon
Not voting the above
ani
batt
chrono
nacho
plum
esurio
Kmd-
Don't feel comfortable as calling town:
amished, xite, locke, ani
rhinox, batt very likely scum
xite, ani must be scum
smash, amished, batt scum
obv town- charlie, plum, holycon
The bottom part is kmd's stances and how it relates to his vote. Since he seemed to jump around, I wanted to check. It is most reasonable for him to vote ani as that has larger scum on it (to him). Mine is different, I left out the two lynch targets, but the final result is that ani had a rating of -2 compared to SSBF's -1 (prob town gets 2, lower scale 1, null 0, etc..). I'll be on later to vote, and make a decision, but I will like to give my vote to esurio as whichever wagon is joined, that one would have a higher number of townies until the others voice a decision as well.-
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Explain vote pleaseKmd4390 wrote:vote batt x2
Wagons of the game (min 8 votes to lynch)! I'm going to focus on wagons that are on confirmed town
28:
Shattered Viewpoint(12) - Ythan,EGL, Magua,Super Smash Bros. Fan, Amished, Charlie, kmd4390, holycon,towmz, animorpherv1, pittbunny,millar13
raider8169 (3) - Chevre, nachomamma8,CSL
RichardGHP(3) -Xite91, raider8169, chronopie
Super Smash Bros. Fan(1) -Shattered Viewpoint
Chronopie (1) - rhinox
CSL(1) -Diacria
Not Voting (2) - Reverse Simplicity,RichardGHP
54:
EGL(9) - nachomamma8, jahudo, Locke Lamora, Charlie, kmd4390,RichardGHP, rhinox, Magua
RichardGHP(5) - animorpherv1,CSL, Amished,Xite91,Super Smash Bros. Fan
Charlie (2) -Twomz
Super Smash Bros. Fan(1) - Chronopie
Chronopie (1) - holycon
CSL(1) - pittbunny
Not Voting (4) -EGL, raider8169,millar13, Ythan
58:
RichardGHP(11) - Ythan, Locke Lamora,Super Smash Bros. Fan,Xite91, jahudo, Chronopie, animorpherv1
Super Smash Bros. Fan(2) - Amished, rhinox
animorpherv1 (1) - Magua
Not Voting (8) - holycon, Plum, Battosuai, nachomamma8, Charlie, kmd4390, MicelSableheart,RichardGHP
59:
RichardGHP(10) - Ythan, Locke Lamora,Super Smash Bros. Fan,Xite91, jahudo, Chronopie
Super Smash Bros. Fan(2) - Amished, rhinox
animorpherv1 (1) - Magua
Not Voting (10) -RichardGHP, holycon, Plum, Charlie, kmd4390, Battosuai, nachomamma8,MichelSableheart, animorpherv1
60:
RichardGHP(9) - Ythan, Locke Lamora,Super Smash Bros. Fan, jahudo, Chronopie
Super Smash Bros. Fan(4) - Amished, rhinox,Xite91, Plum
Xite91(1) - Battosuai
animorpherv1 (1) - Magua
Not Voting (10) -RichardGHP, holycon, Charlie, kmd4390, nachomamma8,MichelSableheart, animorpherv1
62:
RichardGHP(9) - Ythan,Super Smash Bros. Fan, jahudo, Chronopie, Nachomamma8
Super Smash Bros. Fan(5) - Amished, rhinox,Xite91, Plum,MichelSableheart
Ythan (1) - animorpherv1
Xite91(1) - Battosuai
animorpherv1 (1) - Magua
Not Voting (6) - holycon,RichardGHP, Charlie, kmd4390, Locke Lamora
64:
RichardGHP(9) - Ythan,Super Smash Bros. Fan, jahudo, Chronopie, Nachomamma8
Super Smash Bros. Fan(5) - Amished, rhinox,Xite91, Plum,MichelSableheart
Ythan (1) - animorpherv1
Xite91(1) - Battosuai
animorpherv1 (1) - Magua
Charlie (1) -RichardGHP
Not Voting (5) - holycon, Charlie, kmd4390, Locke Lamora
65:
RichardGHP(10) - Ythan,Super Smash Bros. Fan, jahudo, Chronopie, Nachomamma8, Charlie
Super Smash Bros. Fan(5) - Amished, rhinox,Xite91, Plum,MichelSableheart
Charlie (2) -RichardGHP, Locke Lamora
Ythan (1) - animorpherv1
Xite91(1) - Battosuai
animorpherv1 (1) - Magua
Not Voting (3) - holycon, kmd4390
69:
RichardGHP(11) - Ythan,Super Smash Bros. Fan, jahudo, Chronopie, Nachomamma8, Charlie, Battousai
Super Smash Bros. Fan(7) - Amished, Rhinox,Xite91, Plum, MichelSabelheart, kmd4390
Charlie (2) -RichardGHP, Locke Lamora
Ythan (1) - animorpherv1
animorpherv1 (1) - eurospiritus
Not Voting (1) - holycon
72:
RichardGHP(11) - Ythan,Super Smash Bros. Fan, jahudo, Chronopie, Nachomamma8, Charlie, Battousai
Super Smash Bros. Fan(7) - Amished, Rhinox,Xite91, Plum, MichelSabelheart, kmd4390
Charlie (2) -RichardGHP, Locke Lamora
Ythan (1) - animorpherv1
animorpherv1 (1) - eurospiritus
Not Voting (1) - holycon
73:
RichardGHP(11) - Ythan,Super Smash Bros. Fan, jahudo, Chronopie, Nachomamma8, Charlie, Battousai
Super Smash Bros. Fan(7) - Amished, Rhinox,Xite91, Plum, MichelSabelheart, kmd4390
Charlie (2) -RichardGHP, Locke Lamora
Ythan (1) - animorpherv1
animorpherv1 (1) - eurospiritus
Not Voting (1) - holycon
74:
RichardGHP(10) - Ythan,Super Smash Bros. Fan, jahudo, Chronopie, Nachomamma8, Battousai
Super Smash Bros. Fan(7) - Amished, Rhinox,Xite91, Plum, MichelSabelheart, kmd4390
Charlie (2) -RichardGHP, Locke Lamora
Ythan (1) - animorpherv1
animorpherv1 (1) - eurospiritus
Not Voting (2) - holycon, Charlie
75:
RichardGHP(12) – Ythan,Super Smash Bros. Fan, Jahudo, Chronopie, Nachomamma8, Battousai, holycon, rhinox
Super Smash Bros. Fan(8) – Amished,Xite91, Plum,MichelSableheart, kmd4390,RichardGHP, Locke Lamora
Battousai (1) – animorpherv1
Animorpherv1 (1) – esuriospiritus
Not Voting (1) - Charlie
83:
Super Smash Bros. Fan(8) - Amished, Ythan, Chronopie,Xite91, Locke Lamora
animorpherv1 (6) - Rhinox,Super Smash Bros. Fan, Jahudo
Battosuai (3) - animorpherv1, kmd4390
Ythan (2) - Battosuai, Charlie
Amished (1) - holycon
Plum (1) - esuriospiritus
Xite91(1) - nachomamma8
Charlie (1) - Plum
84:
Super Smash Bros. Fan(9) - Amished, Ythan,Xite91, Locke Lamora, rhinox
animorpherv1 (8) -Super Smash Bros. Fan, Jahudo, Charlie, kmd4390, holycon
Ythan (1) - Battousai
Plum (1) - Chronopie
Battosuai (1) - animorpherv1
Xite91(1) - nachomamma8
Charlie (1) - Plum
Not Voting (1) - esuriospiritus
85:
Super Smash Bros. Fan(10) - Amished, Ythan,Xite91, Locke Lamora, Rhinox, Battosuai
animorpherv1 (9) -Super Smash Bros. Fan, Jahudo, Charlie, kmd4390, holycon, nachomamma8
Plum (1) - Chronopie
Battosuai (1) - animorpherv1
Charlie (1) - Plum
Not Voting (1) – esuriospiritus
28: Ythan, Magua, Amished, Charlie, kmd, holy, ani, pitt
54: nacho, jahudo, locke, charlie, kmd, rhinox, magua
58-75: Ythan, Locke*, Jahudo, Chrono, animorpherv1*, nacho, charlie*, Batt, holy, rhinox
83-85: Amished, Ythan, chrono*, locke, rhinox, Batt
Ythan -3-
Charlie -3-
Batt -3-
locke -3-
rhinox -3-
Esurio -2-
Amished -2-
kmd -2-
fishy -2-
nacho -2-
jahudo -2-
Chrono -2-
holy -2-
Plum -0-
Or if you look at just the final vote count each day:
Ythan, esurio, amished, charlie, kmd, holy, Fishy, batt
Nacho, Jahudo, Locke, Charlie, kmd, Rhinox, Esurio
Ythan, Jahudo, Chrono, Nacho, Batt, holy, rhinox
Amished, Ythan, Locke, Rhinox, Batt
Ythan -3-
Batt -3-
Rhinox -3-
Esurio -2-
Amished -2-
Charlie -2-
Kmd -2-
Holy -2-
Nacho -2-
Jahudo -2-
Locke -2-
Chrono -1-
Fishy -1-
Plum -0-
Kmd, what do you have to say for this data? Removing charlie from your previous analysis may by erroneous, especially since he has some of the most points against him on the first one and is on the second lvl on the second one.
Going to look back on the lynch wagon more thoroughly later. Got class right now.-
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Battousai Mafia Scum
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Maybe I can explain it better. I posted every wagon in the game that reached a minimum of 8 players and the person is now confirmed town. The idea behind it is that at least one scum minimum on each that ended in lynch and try and see if anyone jumped from a confirmed town wagon lynch to a different confirmed town wagon (which didn't result in a lynch that phase).
Since Kmd did this earlier I was wanting his opinion on it, since the last time he left people off of it (this one left no one, even myself).
Also, thanks for posting in thread. If you manage to find time, please give us your opinion on anything really.
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Reasons for voting Ani:
Jahudo, Charlie, kmd4390, holycon, nachomamma8
Jahudo- Bad to no reasoning for voting anyone, seemed to not want to be responsible for a lynch (seems reasonable)
Charlie- rather lynch lurking Ani over SSBF. Claims ani is better lynch than SSBF (I see no reason where he states that ani is scummy other than for lurking)
Kmd- Suspects are on the SSBF wagon. (didn't look this up, I think I recalled this correctly) (seems reasonable)
Holy- Don't see SSBF as being scummy, but Ani has been very scummy. Ani least helpful (Calls Ani very scummy, but I didn't see where you mention any sort of case on him)
Combined with the vote analysis, I suspect both Holycon and Charlie. Holycon definitly seems lurkerish and still don't like how he brought up my "cult claim."
Vote: Holycon
FOS: Charlie-
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Spoiler: holy
Eventually, I'll find scum as the number of townies alive to hide with dwindles.
Spoiler: holy
I think that the more scum see people look at the vote counts as a bouncing board to finding scum, the more they become wary of being on a townie mislynch. Therefore, I think looking at secondary wagons is just as important as looking at the primary.
Kmd- Ok, just wanted to make sure your case is the exact same as yesterday. Two second point, yes you did use it to call him AND SSBF scummy, but you ultimately picked Ani over SSBF over "scummy" people jumping to the SSBF wagon.
Spoiler: kmd