Last Will Mafia II (Over)

[Jahudo]

@KMD: I got confused reading two of your posts.

Meh, I wanted to see how Shattered reacted to being "dead". I think he's town. Was gonna say this last post, but didn't know what you were on about, so I waited.

Here you reveal the kill was a gambit.

Rhinox brings up a good point about Dana. Why would you vote Shattered if he may be dying anyway.

But a few days later it seems like your keeping up the act that it still might be real. Why?

Also KMD I don't think this was answered but when you were talking to xite here:

Ok, on Page 16, Xite. You said you'd made your case, but weren't voting. What case were you referring to and why didn't you feel the need to vote?

She was voting for someone, and it was a mod error on the vote count.

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I'm not going to do a page by page wall of catchup posts. My top suspects are Charlie and Chronopie, and I'll get their cases out tonight when I have more time.

As for the day 1 wagons, I understood why the CSL wagon formed but near the end I started to see him as frustrated town. Richard also looks town to me. I didn't really like the Shattered Viewpoint wagon, but I saw him more as vig bait if we could be so lucky. His play was counter-productive and a distraction though.

[Jahudo]

Charlie case:

Everyone should at least read raider8169 in ISO and judge from there.

VOTE: raider8169

This post bothers me because he’s pushing other people into a wagon without explaining any reason for it, and he’s not committing to a case so it doesn’t look like scumhunting at all. Just sitting on a vote so the pressure it off to look for new things to talk about.

Which he takes advantage of because his next posts are not questioning raider, or explaining the vote, but just non-content fluff posting:

You don't get to dictate these sort of things, you know.

I acknowledge the happenings in this thread, and feel that I have nothing to respond to at the moment. Carry on, good people!

Hey millar13, why did you get an avatar? Aren't they useless things to you?

If he has some method of keeping scumtells to himself that’s worked for him in the past, that’s great for him but it looks like he’s using it for opportunistic purposes and not forming a read on raider.

Can you explain this post?

Right now I would be ok with lynching Twomz or RichardGHP. That or any of the slots that have yet to do anything in this game.

What about CSL?

Would your opinion of him change depending on his answer?

[Jahudo]

Chronopie case:

His only contribution to this game has been explaining how a beloved princess was in the first game’s OP but not this one. It was part of three back-to-back posts about setup speculation which I think is something scum might use to avoid giving away opinions about people.

It’s also a possible way out of scumhunting while making yourself look a little less lurky, which Chronopie has a problem with.

So Rhinox attacks the case on Richard, then votes for a (near) lurker...

Defending a buddy and trying to divert attention?

VOTE: RichardGHP

FoS: Rhinox

I don’t understand this thought process. He seems to have more suspicion on Rhinox for his actions on the Richard case, but Chronopie instead votes Richard.

@Chronopie: Did you just realize in that post that you liked the existing Richard wagon best? What about Rhinox’s actions looked out of line? I don’t see how this doesn’t apply in other situations where a player has said they don’t like a particular wagon and then provide an alternative.

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I could vote for either at this time but if Charlie and/or Chronopie are around to talk then I'll just hold off and try and get a better understanding of their suspicions.

[Jahudo]

I replaced Chevre during night.

[Jahudo]

@Nachomamma:

Jahudo, do you have any suspicions that aren't so... obvious/opportunistic?

Opportunistic in what way? I realize they are both players who have made much of a contribution, so they could be called lurkers (which can be a debatable scumtell or null tell for alot of people) but I actually believe there is a method to their anti-town behavior that goes beyond a lack of effort.

I'll bring up other suspicions as I form them. For example I was reading KMD as town up until where he seems to flip-flop on whether the daykill was real or not. I'm trying to figure out if he slipped there or if there's a reasonable explanation.

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@Charlie:

I like that case against me. I'd believe it, but to to circumstances of me being me, I unfortunately don't. The case is more correct than wrong.

Am I right in assuming that you are purposefully keeping your reasons for voting to yourself? Or have you been playing but pure gut so far? Because if you can explain why raider is scummy, though his ISO or whatever, I'd like to hear it.

Your agreeable reaction to having a case on you feels deliberate to me. Like trying to downplay your spotlight by not adding any confrontation or argument on your part that might draw out the case into a back-and-forth type of thing that gets alot of people's attention. You know?

I just gotta check your meta on this and see if this is normal for you. Because on the other hand, if you are town, I'm wondering why you aren't trying to actively prove it to me? Would a vote make a difference?

Vote: Charlie

[Jahudo]

And what are the cases on Charlie, myself, and CSL? (Seeing as we're the leading and 2nd= wagons.)

Read the ISO's of the people voting them, and it probably won't be hard to find their cases. So who do you think is scum?

[Jahudo]

This is normal Richard behavior. If he wants to make bizarre gambits and replace out even though he got the response he should have been looking for, that's his business. It's probably just a null tell because he's done it as town and is aware of that meta against him. Overall I haven't sensed anything scummy from him and I think he should just get in the game.

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@KMD: What changed between these two posts?

Raider wagon is meh, but it's better than CSL. Shattered and Richard wagons are better, but I don't think they can take off.

Vote Raider

Raider and csl are probtown.

How is the first quote true if at that time you could have made the Shattered wagon even with the Raider wagon?

@KMD:

@KMD: I got confused reading two of your posts.

Meh, I wanted to see how Shattered reacted to being "dead". I think he's town. Was gonna say this last post, but didn't know what you were on about, so I waited.

Here you reveal the kill was a gambit.

Rhinox brings up a good point about Dana. Why would you vote Shattered if he may be dying anyway.

But a few days later it seems like your keeping up the act that it still might be real. Why?

???

[Jahudo]

Jahudo, there's no change there. First quote is that I don't really like the raider wagon but its better than the one on csl. Third quote is where I say that they are probably both town. I don't see any change. And yeah, I wanted shattered to think he was really dying so I could get a better read.

But you could have voted Shattered instead of Raider. They were equally viable lynches, weren't they?

And you had already told Shattered that the gambit was fake, right? So did you think he forgot about it when you went back to saying it was real?

I'm not buying these current explanations.

unvote;
Vote: KMD

[Jahudo]

@Richard have you ever played as a vig or doctor before?

I still don't think Richard is a good lynch.

The point was that at the time dana had posted, I hadn't said the kill was fake yet, so dana's post made no sense at the time it was made.

oh ok.


@Chronopie: What about the Richard wagon made you decide scum were MOST LIKELY trying to save him and not thinking about distancing/bussing?

unvote

[Jahudo]

I cannot read Jahudo due to avatar bias. The red panda is distracting, and all his posts are diluted because of it. I'm not joking: this happened to me before in my second Newbie game here, long completed. It was squirrels that time.

Distracting as in too cute to lynch me? That's the intended effect

Jahudo (as much as it is hard to read his posts) - Kmd4390 interactions are very interesting (page 38). I feel that the tone of their posts changed. Strange, wish they could interact more so we can draw further conclusions. For now I don't know what to make of this finding.

Turns out I was wrong. Danakillsu had her vote on Shattered after KMD made the fake daykill but before he said it was fake. I got confused because it took Rhinox/KMD until after the gambit had ended for them to bring up that point. Which is understandable because dana was lurking pretty hard and never said anything after the fake-gambit was explained.

I still think Shattered was viable at the time KMD said he wasn't, but I guess that doesn't matter knowing Shattered was town and scum could have just plopped their vote on him whenever. So I can't find a scum motivation.

So I don't have any suspicions on KMD now. I'm leaning Chronopie for #1 suspect.

[Jahudo]

@Charlie: Who was the player in your second game that had a squirrel avatar? You are talking about Newbie 888 right?

Unless Richard can reasonably explain to me why he did not use his role to kill millar or any of his other scum reads (in your next post please), I will vote to lynch him in my next post.

Good point. I forgot about that part.

@Richard have you ever been a vig?

[Jahudo]

Cool. Then KMD's point is invalid because Charlie was scum in that game.

I personally think either alignment could be distracted by an avatar, so what Charlie said is null for me. This thread needs moar Chronopie and Richard.

[Jahudo]

@Mod: Can you prod Richard please?

About the EGL case...

Why EGL is scum for Dummies:

1) The Shattered Viewpoint Vote:
EGL votes SV for an RVS reason, then, when the wagon starts to grow, heavily lurks until the lynch.

I can agree with this. Regardless of his other game commitments there didn't seem to be any attempt to make suspects. I would think that could be done even if you are lost in a game and don't trust your reads very well. The shattered viewpoint vote didn't look very serious and his posts about KMD and Diacria were the only investigating but he really didn't take a stance on whether or not they were doing something suspicious.

2 and 3) I done told you people before I get suspicious of people with mile long town lists, especially on D1, because it seems like they're buddying/know who is and is not scum. The same applied to my questioning KMD about his page 1 town reads. HTF does someone know on page 1 who is town? It's not my fault if you disagree and think that's perfectly normal

Before in this game? Then why didn't you throw a vote down on one of them? If Viewpoint was a better lynch at the time, why didn't you say why? Did you look for his posts after you voted? Why no questions to him?

I think Nacho makes a decent case for an EGL lynch.

[Jahudo]

I haven't seen anything suspicious about Amished's votes yet. Is this about his placement in a particular wagon? Or who he has decided to wagon?

KMD, who in this game is just a gut read for you? Is it anyone being wagoned, and/or anyone you suspect?

[Jahudo]

@Mod: I think Locke is voting Charlie, not Chronopie.

~fixed

And I think I'll vote EGL.

Vote: EGL

[Jahudo]

@Mod: Can you prod Richard?

Richard has been a lot more active in two other games recently.
@Richard: why haven't you found the time to answer questions here?

---------------

@Pittbunny: Does CSL's requesting replacement affect your read of him at all?

[Jahudo]

@Richard:

I didn't kill millar because I figured he would be killed by someone else, and targeting him in that instance would circumvent the kill.

Fair enough. Its a large game so its not unreasonable to think there would be two town ways to kill at night.

But then why did you say this?

Not really sure if it's even worth keeping me around, since I'm likely to end up either killing townies or sitting on my butt doing nothing for most of the game.

If you knew you could use your power like a vig can target people who thought were scum but weren't getting voted enough to lynch? Do you not trust your own judgments that much?

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--------------------------

@EGL:

And catching up on what I missed.

Welcome back. Who is scum?

Also this,

2 and 3) I done told you people before I get suspicious of people with mile long town lists, especially on D1, because it seems like they're buddying/know who is and is not scum. The same applied to my questioning KMD about his page 1 town reads. HTF does someone know on page 1 who is town? It's not my fault if you disagree and think that's perfectly normal

Before in this game? Then why didn't you throw a vote down on one of them? If Viewpoint was a better lynch at the time, why didn't you say why? Did you look for his posts after you voted? Why no questions to him?

[Jahudo]

@Amished:

Richard (especially after the "what if he lived?" debacle on millar) deserves to be lynched.

Why is the debacle scummy? This seems to be your only case point, but it isn't obvious if you haven't explained it before now.

You only seemed to vote Richard because you thought he said he forgot to use his role, and you didn't buy that excuse. But since that never happened, why did you continue to vote him before he explained why he choose not to lynch someone like millar? You seemed to have no valid reason other than the sake of voting.

[Jahudo]

xite and ssbf, how do you personally separate townie frustration from the same as a scum tactic?

Richard definitely looks anti-town by way of ignoring pretty much all questions directed towards him and not explaining his vote. But while the vote may be geared towards self-survival, his ignoring questions is not. So I don't think he's using this as a scum tactic because they would be hurting his survival.

[Jahudo]

I didn't say his play was scummy.

[Jahudo]

Your argument seems to be that he'd never play that badly as scum, ignoring that it's just as wrong and unlikely for him to play that bad as town.

I'm not as familiar with his scum play, but if his AtE was intentional then I think he wouldn't try to sabotage his survival by also ignoring people's questions. There doesn't seem to be a logical reason for it, and I know he's not a VI.

But his town game is fresh in my mind, and it looked alot like what we have here.

Such examples are "I can't do anything right!" "If you lynch me, you'll lose!" These and less obvious forms of AtE can be used by scums to persuade us into backing them off.

He never said that second quote. And the first one seems justified because its regarding strategy. Whether we agree or not with his decision not to use his power, its not something we can call out as a reliable scumtell because he gave a logical pro-town reason for not doing anything.

[Jahudo]

The fact that he wouldn't do it as scum doesn't mean he's town if he wouldn't do it there either.

I've been trying to argue that he would play this way as town. Let's go point by point:

1. No night action - His claim hasn't been contradictory, it just didn't answer all possible questions right away. And I think his reasoning makes sense because there could be a vig in a large game and millar would be a likely target for one (assuming he's not the vig).

2. Appeal to emotion - Stems from his strategy on how to use a role properly, which seems like a hard thing to assign to a scumtell. And its justified because Amished got his facts wrong about the claim, which Richard pointed out. And because super smash bros strawmanned his strategy by only mentioning a scum kill and not a vig kill, which is what Richard said he was afraid of stopping. So Amished and SSBF are the scummy people here.

3. Lack of explaining cases - Well we seem to have alot of those people here, which has kind of diluted the tell for me on all of them (eg: Chronopie, millar).

What other reasons are there for lynching him again?

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@Mod: Prod Twomz and Magua please

@millar are you around? You said your v/la would be done by now so who is the best lynch?

And raider and pittbunny are being replaced I think?

And EGL has been catching up since wednesday (still waiting for some content...), and that should be everyone not active recently or on the two biggest wagons. IE: people that should talk more about EGL and Richard.

[Jahudo]

Actually though, based on what I've seen of him, this is the absolute worst game I've seen him play in. Also, based on looking at all of his posts, he

actually scumhunts

in other games, why wouldn't he here?

I put his "gambit" as part of his normal scumhunting repertoire, which seems to incorporate alot of his posts whether he planned them at the time or not. In Karma Mafia I debated this point to death and don't feel like worrying about it anymore.

And if the main point of this Richard lynch is his lack of scumhunting, I don't see how someone like animorph or Chronopie (latest post was IIoA IMO) is not still an equal candidate (To be clear, I'm not arguing for any of their lynches). One difference I see is that Richard has been aggressive towards some players (calling their vote bad, for instance) which I've interpreted as part of his normal personality/gambit seeking playstyle. But its also caused him to look like a villain more so than ani or chrono, and I think that's one reason why his wagon has stuck where ideas of the others have been deemed lurker wagons.

[Jahudo]

I'm still good with my vote. I don't see how a wagon on him prevented a catchup post to identify his suspects when he had about 3-4 days since his previous post.

Hey xite, do you have any Richard games in mind that I could read and see the extent of his scumhunting?

[Jahudo]

Welcome replacements.

Mafia in hell, Michigan <---- This one has me more apt to believe he's town in this game, but if you read it, he still tries to help a little bit, Although he pulls a terrible gambit in this one, too.

Yeah, there's some ate in that. Its tough because we know he can be more helpful, but he doesn't necessarily look that was as town sometimes. I'm still feeling this could be one of those times but I will read him again and reconsider the other side of the argument.

[Jahudo]

Given Ythan's claim I am good with a Richard lynch. I don't have a reason to think Ythan is scum.

I think Richard is at L-2 and not L-1, but I'll wait for a vote count for now.

[Jahudo]

EBWOP
Having checked 2x I think hes at 8/12

Ok, I saw we had 18 players but forgot the threshold would be higher because of the extra votes.

Vote: Richard

[Jahudo]

I think I understand that argument. Richard-scum wouldn't lie about killing someone he didn't because he would get counter-claimed. And since Twomz was (presumably) killed by scum, there's a good chance that it would come from Richard-scum's faction. The only logical way Richard could be scum is if there are 2 or more killing scum factions. In a large game that's common enough but not guaranteed, so this isn't an open and shut case.

So if Richard is town, then either he was blocked or Ythan was. I could see a fair chance of the latter happening, but why would scum block Richard-town? Whether he proves he can kill or not wouldn't prove he is town.

[Jahudo]

Charlie, do you miss my old avatar?
Or did something else catch your eye?

My complete read on Richard is this: My meta on him from yesterday feels a little unreliable once I read some games that xite pointed out. Taken just as a snapshot from this game, Richard has been anti-town by refusing to answer questions or scumhunt. There's some odds that his role is fake, but this depends on information we don't know. Overall he's a good lynch so I'm voting for him, but given that Ythan's claim cannot 100% be called a counter-claim, my previous post was basically saying we don't have to rush the lynch or focus on the claim aspect of it. Which reminds me,

@Richard: Did you ever tell us when exactly you figured out you could use your power like a vig? Did you have a thought to target anyone besides millar on night 1? Did you have some other suspects at that point, that you figured people wouldn't support a lynch of if you were the one arguing the case (like you said during the day?)

[Jahudo]

Well my post dealt in hypothetical, and that might have been the first time I did that in this game. Is that what you noticed? Where I said, Richard-scum could or couldn't; would or wouldn't, while Richard-town etc, etc. Or is there something incorrect or misrepresenting in my thought process?

I'm going to re-read SSBF now.

[Jahudo]

Charlie I still don't have you figured out. But it sure is fun reading you

Hang on, have I said that I am very doubtful of RichardGHP's towness and am more inclined to believe Ythan over him? No? Ugh. I hope this does not put a dent in my credibility. I guess I should have mentioned it earlier so I can reference it at a later date comfortably.

So you are currently doubtful of Richard being town? Okay.

Really I believe that Ythan was roleblocked and Richard allowed to make the kill. This fits with everything and makes them both town.

Wait, you also currently think Ythan was RB'ed? And that Richard killed millar? Yes, that would mean you think Richard is town, right? Because why would a Richard-scum kill a millar-town that is anti-town and also hurts town if he's lynched?

But nothing is certain and I really need to park my vote snugly to someone else I get called out for it.

Fair enough. What in any of this has made you more confident that you should vote Richard than someone else?

[Jahudo]

KMD, I'd like to hear your Amished case.

[Jahudo]

QFT what Rhinox just said. KMD's flip-flop on SSBF makes no sense.

For those that think SSBF is town, I'd like to hear some reasons why?

I don't think he was hypocritical in looking for scum on the EGL wagon when he was also one of those people. Its probably true, and you could make a decent case arguing the person or people who least had reasoning to be on there. And he's allowed to ignore his own presence on the wagon, but everyone else can say he was one of the people who looked scummy for it. Am I missing something from that case point?

I don't get see what is scummy about SSBF's comments regarding Ythan/Richard/other peoples night action speculation. Two scum killing groups is not guaranteed but reasonable in a large game. This is common knowledge. A roleblock is possible too. We just don't know what is most likely so we have to guess or not deal with this at all until we know more.

Also, I'd like to hear from everyone why chrono is not being considered for a lynch?

Honestly I thought he was replaced at one point, but I guess he was just prodded a few times. I don't have a feeling he's pro-town but the unproductive behavior from him has started to feel like general lurker and I can't say for sure its scummy. The content he has posted hasn't really given me any clues one way or the other lately.

Rhinox, doesn't Chrono suspect SSBF? Does that mean anything for you if you find them both scummy? Just wondering.

[Jahudo]

@Rhinox how many more points are in your SSBF case? I think I can only name two (him looking at the EGL wagon for scum, and his comments about Ythan/Richard/whoever night action spec).

<snip>SSBF is over-explainy about his votes as scum, feeling the need to justfy his votes and overcompensating

This seems to be your strongest point?

Does anyone have an example of SSBF explaining his vote less as town? I don't see what is inherently scummy about this, and I don't think this showed up one time I saw him as scum. But maybe there's a difference between alignment.

My top suspicion is Super Smash Bros. Fan, though. The main thing that drew my attention was post #732. Everyone on the SV wagon from Amished onwards was blatantly bandwagoning. Why would he only look at the last 5 players on the wagon, when their behaviour is exactly the same as that of at least three other players?

This seems to be your strongest point? That he acknowledges how fast the shattered viewpoint wagon gained steam but then gave an inaccurate time on when that started. I guess that's something but his detailed analysis in 768 kind of explains how kmd is not thrown into the mix. That post might be an example of his overcompensating if that is a reliable tell.

Furthermore, ISOing Diacra, SSBF was her top suspect, giving him a strong motive to kill her. SSBF was the player pushing for the beloved princess kill early day 2.

I don't put much stock into NK analysis and think Diacra could have easily been killed by his scum picks, town picks or anywhere in between.

Pushing for a beloved princess lynch is a bad idea strategically, and I think scum (who are concerned with how their words are interpreted anyway) might take a cautious stance.

ok, looking at amished's reasons next.

[Jahudo]

holycon are you going to vote for richard?

[Jahudo]

My main reservation is this: what happens tomorrow if we lynch richard and he flips town?

What I'll do is keep trying to understand the SSBF wagon, most likely. There's only a few Amished points I understand but the rest is like latin to me.

is Ythan the autolynch tomorrow if Richard is town?

Not unless he does something scummy. If Richard is town, then I'll resign myself for the moment to believe that someone used a roleblock that makes no logical sense no matter their alignment.

[Jahudo]

So you think that it is more likely that someone used a roleblock than for Ythan to have lied about using his vig ability?

For now yes. I don't have a reason to suspect Ythan and we know he was given a power.

[Jahudo]

So overnight I continued to still not understand the SSBF case, and I guess I'll just sit here and have it be a mystery to me still. :twiddles thumbs:

Vote: animorph

- I don't like how he complained the day was not over when he still wasn't voting. It suggests he thinks there's a good decision but he won't be responsible for it.

[Jahudo]

@Jahudo: Which points are you mostly confused with? Or which ones do you feel aren't scumtells?

The things I don't understand / don't see them as tells are:

-How SSBF said to look for scum on the EGL wagon even though he had been on that wagon too. I don't think its hypocritical because there probably were scum on the wagon but its not his job to talk about his own actions if he's not under attack.

-How he speculated on multiple killing factions the night of the Ythan/Richard fiasco. It doesn't look like a slip of inside information because its just a common element in large games and safe to speculate about.

-How SSBF's scum meta is to overexplain his votes, or how he's doing that in this game. With a limited memory of some past games and what I've seen here, I don't know how he's overexplaining to justify a lack of honesty, or however this tell would help scum.

-How he went about analyzing the Shattered Viewpoint wagon. He initially leaves out some of the bandwagoners but later explains why he did that for KMD, for instance, and I don't see what's wrong with not explaining his town reads thoroughly. He picked some scum reads from the wagon, explained them, and that seems enough.

-How Diacra getting NK'ed makes SSBF a likely killer. Yes Diacra was suspicious of SSBF but it could also be a red herring or just a coincidence.

-How SSBF argued for a beloved princess lynch. Its a bad strategy and anyone should know that. Scum could easily take a cautious approach so as not to attract attention and get into debates.

I do understand a few of your points however. Like how SSBF was selective with those OMGUS attacks, or selective with how he treated people's town lists.

[Jahudo]

@animorph: Do you think Batt is cult that was serious about thinking he had won? What kind of a cult can win this early? That alone should indicate he was joking. He could still be cult just on random chance, but no way would he think it was safe to claim.

Hey xite, can you re-summarize your SSBF case points? Or do you have a post for that already?

1) He was never on the EGL wagon. He said he could get behind it, but never voted (fence-sitting) then he said that he thinks there's scum on the wagon.

Doh, I got my wagons mixed up. I meant it didn't seem hypocritical for him to be on the Shattered Viewpoint wagon but also think it had scum on it.

On the subject of his EGL suspicion, it seems normal he wouldn't vote since he had been focused on finding scum from his Shattered Viewpoint wagon list.

And he was on the rival Richard wagon at the time and it was slightly larger. Deadline was two days from when SSBF started talking about EGL. Why would he help a rival wagon if the best thing for him would be to maintain the status quo and let either top townie wagon happen naturally?

2) It was that he said to look at the last 5 on the wagon, but then said, "Oh, these guys I think are town, so it's these two that are scum" Also that one was more to point out to him that scum can be ANYWHERE on a wagon, and his insistence that scum must be on the last 5 is silly.

I'm not seeing it that way. He was already suspicious of those people at the end of the Shattered Viewpoint wagon (Chrono, Richard, CSL) so it makes sense he'd decide to look at them. And he explained why Twomz was more townish, so it doesn't read like PoE that you imply.

And he did not insist scum were in the last 5, he merely suggested it. Where do you see it the other way?

3) The way he did it, he waited to vote. Instead he just pushed and pushed then dropped it when he didn't get any support. I'm willing to venture a guess that if he were to get support for it, he would vote (remember what I said about throwing spaghetti?)

I don't recall him pushing that much. I can find one post and then another where he acknowledges a vig can take care of millar being a better plan. It seems that was what caused him to back down. Anyway I still don't see how scum would take this unnecessary risk of arguing for a anti-town strategy.

[Jahudo]

WARNING, REALLY BIG PBPA ANALYSIS RESPONSE. (Stuff xite has said about SSBF)
CLIFF NOTES AT BOTTOM.

0) Okay, so I just want to point out that SSBF has seen how millar plays. This is actually important considering millar's meta

Um no. He says he knows how millar is a mod, not a player. But whatevers, maybe he knows millar player too. IDK.

3) until you see this post. Diacra responded to him and told him one thing that could be going on, and he rebuttals with something that could very well look like an attack (but not enough of one just yet. Fence-sitting )

I can see that.

4) Okay, at least the fence-sitting has stopped, but I'm not really liking this post. Call it gut though /shrug

The part about "being willing to apply pressure" never bothered me here. It was page 3 and I wouldn't expect anyone to be confident enough to throw a lynch vote down.

5&6) More attacks without attacking, this time on Richard

You mean on Shattered Viewpoint? I don't know what you mean here but his response to SV looks justified to me.

8) Looking for townie points?

From who? Yeah strategy is IIoA but he hadn't been using it as a crutch during this period to avoid scumhunting altogether so not a big tell for me.

9) Even MORE attacks without attacking.

It looks like a strategy argument to me and nothing more. I don't see what SSBF could use there to stealthily push a case on Richard.

10) Well at least you finally put an FoS on him. Also, where did your attack on dia go? I mean, she's getting votes now, wouldn't you pay a little bit of attention to her?

Isn't the point of that FoS that SV was continuing to ignore KMD? Time makes the tell grow stronger. Its normal. I agree its odd that SSBF stopped talking about Diacria for a few days when Diacria had continued to make posts that could be commented on.

11)

I would be up for a policy lynch on millar13. I personally don't like his behavior and his rule-breaking and if he were to continue being disrespectful to the game and the mod doesn't replace him, the next best solution is to lynch him.

Waitwaitwait... didn't he say that he'd seen millar play before?

I've talked before how arguing for a policy lynch sounds like a bad strategy for scum to take even if they were trying to gauge opinions. It places them way out in the open for criticism and scum don't want that unnecessary risk that anyone should think would come with a policy lynch suggestion. This was before millar claimed Beloved Princess, which made it even riskier when he continued to talk about the possibility. And yeah, ISO 0.

12) "How so? It's not even inside this game, therefore it is irrelavent."
it was not irrelevant... it had every bit to do with that game.
"But you did ask him a question. That means you're wanting RichardGHP to give him his scum reads AKA, explanations, no matter how minimal that may be"
That's not exactly true. Nice misrep
Diacria wrote:
"Unvote, Vote Supersmash
Picking and choosing targets."
SSBF wrote:
"Wow, at long last, you finally give an explanation for voting someone and you basically OMGUS'd me."

Actually, I'm sad I missed this. Dia had it even before I did. Remember the throwing spaghetti thing I was talking about?

I don't understand the first part but can agree with the last two points. I only think the third one looks scummy on SSBF's part, but yeah that's something.

13) One-game meta is not an acceptable meta. Ever.
"f you were talking about that last post, you should have noticed that I made a response to EGL at the end of that paragraph."
You were still tunneling, but at least responding to points against you.
"I did not ask millar to claim, I just said that he can claim if he wanted, just that I suggested he should wait until mylo/lylo or if he got put at L-1 and was asked to claim."
This was exactly what I knew you were going to do, because you covered all of your bases when you told him to claim.

I don't understand what the scummy thing is here.

42) "Please explain why this is rolefishing. I never asked millar13 to claim at all, I just said that he could claim if he wanted to, just that I'd recommend doing it at L-1/massclaim at Mylo/Lylo.

There was no scummy agenda for that quote.

"
And we're just supposed to believe you? Yah, ok

I believe SSBF here. Millar was the one to say he wanted to claim and that it could help town. Any alignment could have justification to follow-up on millar's softclaim.

I'm actually seeing a decent case on raider8169 being formed. A few posts from his hasn't been very good and Rhinox's case against raider8169 is nice as well. I like the bandwagon on both raider8169 and Shattered Viewpoint. I'm still suspicious of Diacria, but his play is improving. Unvote

Shattered Viewpoint and raider8169 are scummy, but raider8169 is scummier. Vote: raider8169

Whaaaaa?<snip>Seriously, the reason I went "Whaaaaa?" was because of the obvfence-sitting in that post. And I'm surprised no one else caught it.

Looks more like piggybacking on Rhinox's case. He's taking a stance but not making it his own, which could be something. I don't see fence-sitting though.

"I had a stronger read on Shattered Viewpoint then CSL at the time. I didn't have much to base off of CSL but I felt there was a lot more meat to the Shattered Viewpoint's bandwagon."
This is not reasoning for jumping on a wagon. What do you mean "meat to the [wagon]?"

Coming from you xite this looks disingenuous. At that point in day 1 you were talking about a twomz or charlie lynch and you had very little reasoning for twomz, and no reasoning for charlie. SSBF had more reasoning behind his SV suspicion.

"This is coming from someone that suspect CSL, RichardGHP, and millar13. Out of the four suspects I've mentioned in ISO: 24, only millar13 is really an easy target, which is why I dropped the case on him. The other three have quality cases put against them that makes them worthy of being lynched. I haven't simply sheeped off other people's case either. I have made my own effort toward trying to get my top five suspects {Charlie, CSL, RichardGHP, animorpherv1, and Chronopie in order from most suspected to least suspected} lynched."
Hoping people can see the scumminess in this post.

No I'm not sure I see it. What's going on here?

43) Is this an attack, or is it just throwing more suspicion around to see if it sticks?

That looks like an attack based on reasoning. I do not see any scummy behavior here.

44) "Rage quits are scummy, I will admit that. However, that doesn't always mean I'm going to switch my vote in that instance. I will need to see if RichardGHP comes back and becomes even scummier/successor is scummier before throwing down a vote."
Weren't you convinced he was scum before? What changed? Other than other people's reactions to him, i mean.

Well for one thing he hadn't been voting Richard for a while. A few posts earlier he labeled Richard as his 3rd suspect. So its realistic that he still wouldn't jump to #1 if this wasn't a strong enough tell for SSBF like he says.

48) Here's how we'll set up the mislynch for tomorrow.

Heh, maybe. But did any of us have a good plan on how to deal with Richard?

49) And back to the fence-sitting!

Where exactly? I don't see indecisiveness, just a plan that has variables that need to be explored before making a reasoned conclusion.

50) "Let's say that he attempts to attack his top suspect (In his case, Chronopie)."
Where the hell did chronopie come from?

I'm guessing post #882, where Richard voted Chronopie. It was his last vote before SSBF made this post.

55) "*facepalm*
You do realize that if he's telling the truth about his claim that we lose a Day, right? Me suggesting that millar13 should be policy lynched at the beginning of the Day was a terrible idea and I no longer think it's a good idea. Lynching him puts the town at a risk of losing a Day, something that is unaffordable to lose. This is also directed at CSL."
Wait... weren't you pushing the same person's lynch? And now you're (I think) attacking someone for the same idea? hmmm....

My reaction is that SSBF is just explaining things here, not attacking or throwing mud their way. The facepalm implies he thinks they're missing the point but not trying to do something inherently scummy.

57) This post alone should make you think he's scum. Read it a couple times.

Explain it.

66) IT'S A TARP!

Huh?

67) Another case on an already really suspected player. Wheeeeeeee

Lol, he does do that. In this case it doesn't look opportunistic because Richard had more votes and no one else was close to a lynch. So if someone not in your hypothetical scum group is sure to be lynched, why would scum need to support both wagons? If anything scum might be more worried about Richard having an NK by some means, or flipping some kind of scum and they'd want to show solidarity to that wagon should it succeed.

68) Youre @ me - no, just every time you attack someone without ACTUALLY attacking so that you can make sure that if they flip town you can say "well I never attacked them"

I don't think he could make that defense because it looks clear to me who he is labeling a suspect. Although on the whole I think he has been attacking with attacking.

70) But it happens all the time. This is also not the first time you've said "town would not have a reason to do this" or something to the like. For some reason this is scummy to me.

In theory SSBF has a point but in reality it just doesn't happen like that. And he's not digging that deep into the causes of the AtE and how it could be more scum than town or visa-versa, so this is a point against SSBF.

TL;DR

- I counted 25 points made by xite. I agree with 4, disagree with 15 and find 6 to be null or too confusing to understand. Overall I don't think the SSBF case is good enough to support.

[Jahudo]

KMD makes a good point about the millar kill. It should be a null tell since it would help scum to get rid of the guy. Though we don't know if or when Ythan would have claimed if he didn't have to counter-claim someone he probably figured was lying.

5&6) He's saying things that other people can take as points against him but not really taking a stance (attacking without attacking)

He was avoiding questions?

42) But if you look at the post he made, that's what made it scummy. Because he asked him to claim without asking and making sure that he covered everything in case someone attacked him for it.

So would asking directly have been pro-town? Or would ignoring a softclaim have been the only right answer? Why?

57) It's a lot easier on me if you just read it.

Do you think he was trying to buddy up to you and/or Rhinox? Because I guess he didn't need to drag either of your names into his change of heart to explain the reasoning behind it.

[Jahudo]

@Jahudo
5&6) *facepalm* you're completely missing the point here... how did that at all give you the conclusion that he was avoiding questions?

You just said he was saying things that other people could take as points against him. In post 6 he said SV was avoiding quesitons so...

[Jahudo]

Oh ok. Yeah I don't think that's a scum tell.

[Jahudo]

Motivation. Scum want to look pro town and town want to catch scum. So its in the scum's best interest to attack with the scum tell so they look pro-town for scumhunting. The townie doesn't care as much who gets the credit, as long as the investigation becomes solid enough to have a good idea if someone is scum.

[Jahudo]

@Jahudo: Please link me (or explain) your case on whomever you think is scummiest, I'm blanking on where you actually stand this game other than against Xite's case on SSBF.

Ta-da:

Vote: animorph

- I don't like how he complained the day was not over when he still wasn't voting. It suggests he thinks there's a good decision but he won't be responsible for it.

I also find it hard to believe he thought Batt cult claimed for as long as he did. He just ignored the logic that a cult couldn't win this early and kept his vote on Batt.
His CSL and Ythan votes don't make sense as to why he thought each person was scum for his reasons, and his Richard vote never had a reason.
His softclaim didn't make sense from a town standpoint. I don't know why he'd reveal a power role just to say he had it.
Other than that he didn't do much in the game. Some non-game related posts and some lurking.

Its not much compared to the encyclopedia of SSBF tells out there, but I cannot in good faith sign off on SSBF when it looks like most of the points are so far reaching that they make him look town more often than scum.

I guess I'll look for an alternative now that he's getting replaced though.

[Jahudo]

I didn't say or imply that Ani didn't give a shit, though I guess its possible with tells like lack of scumhunting or the softclaim. And I didn't say I was second guessing my vote. The simple truth is that he didn't become a huge wagon before he replaced out, so its hard to strengthen a case on someone that can't respond to questions from people still on the fence about him.

Whatever. Let's just find out who this guy is already. I hope to be proven wrong.

unvote;
Vote SSBF

[Jahudo]

Ack, I had my deadlines mixed up.

unvote;
Vote: Ani

[Jahudo]

A single Plum post can give Chronopie a clear read, but 90 plus SSBF posts and the hundreds of analysis posts have not given him a strong read there?
I don't believe that when he's also said this:

<snip about voting analysis>
So raider, the likely early wagon, get turned around. of the early jumpers to the SV wagon, SSBF was the one without much reason.

VOTE: SSBF

<snip about voting analysis>
Vote: SSBF

Holy Wallpost of QFT.

This was formed independent of Ythan. It was Chronopie taking a stand on SSBF, and it should still mean something to him.

FoS: Chronopie

----------------

I think something that looks like an obv-scumslip has a way of filling up a paragraph so our eyes are drawn to it and not the part that explains it. The reaction to Amished's post looks normal on the whole.

Get a flip of one of us and then you can talk. I'm neutral on Amished but firmly believe that 'scumslips' are nulltells; this is a theory stance I hold above and beyond single games and there's plenty of precedent for me having that stance as a given.

This sounds reasonable but do you have a link to this precedent?

[Jahudo]

SSBF should be at L-1 now.

[Jahudo]

Mod: Can you ask animorph if he'd temporarily replace back in? We just want him to claim

Its kind of odd how animorph left, because he's still playing in other games as of last night. Maybe he got overloaded with games, but as long as he's still on the site he should be able to claim for us.

[Jahudo]

So animorph is online.

[Jahudo]

Neither of you find it odd that Ani is ignoring the request?

[Jahudo]

Hi Fishy. I don't want you to claim now, and won't vote you now, but I am still suspicious of how animorph played. Just so you know, ani has already softclaimed so you can confirm or deny that part of your role if you wish. I'm also wondering if you can think of a reason for why he did that.

Flaking and not caring about the game is not a scumtell

I didn't get the feeling that ani "didn't care about the game". He kept making cases each day but either hid reasons or didn't explain why reason x was a scumtell. When he "flaked" out, he was still playing in other games around the forum. There was no excuse that he had to cut back for lack of time, so I have no reason to believe that's what happened.

noone has ever given a reason why aniscum would make and stick to such a terrible vote on Batt. Incredibly bad vote -> scum simply isn't true.

Any thoughts on why he ignored other people's thoughts on his vote? If he believed in that tell why wouldn't he defend it?

[Jahudo]

Chronopie has mostly been a lurker, which can be argued is null or anti-town ranging on mildly scummy and wouldn't be a good lynch right now. But I have other issues with him that are still in play.

1.

(in hindsight I think Chrono's vote on Plum might have been an attempt at distancing)

I think that's one way to look at it. But it might be that Chrono was satisfied with the SSBF suspicion he helped push and he was ready to move onto the next townie, so Chrono is a better lynch today than Plum if you see a connection there.

I was proxying my vote to Ythan. No strong opinion on SSBF, Strong Town read on Ythan.

His reasoning for leaving the SSBF wagon in favor of Plum. This is a lie according to his ISO #14 (where he gives all that wagon analysis and ends up voting SSBF for his presence on the Shattered Viewpoint wagon) and ISO #23 (where he blanket QFT's a post by Battousai who votes SSBF for his presence on the Richard wagon). How is it not a strong opinion to say someone is the scummy figure on 2 separate town wagons?

2.

So Rhinox attacks the case on Richard, then votes for a (near) lurker...

Defending a buddy and trying to divert attention?

VOTE: RichardGHP

FoS: Rhinox

He makes a case for scum but doesn't vote them. He implies Richard is also scum but doesn't say why apart from the actions Rhinox has taken, which still should mean he feels more confident about Rhinox, so why not vote for the more confident scum read?

It looks to me like he was the suspicion out there but he doesn't want to defend it. You could blow off a counter-argument easier by saying your suspect is overreacting to a FoS easier than overreacting to a vote.

I'll try to explain my other reads but for now I feel like voting someone whose few actions look scummy. Still I wish there were more Chronopie things to talk about and get a fuller read.

Vote: Chronopie x4

[Jahudo]

Nothing has changed but I've already said as much as I can about ani. I want to bring back the Chrono discussion for a little bit while we wait for Fishy's catchup post.

[Jahudo]

Yeah, I have a free day today so I'll go over the other cases I haven't really commented on yet.

[Jahudo]

OK I'm starting with the raider case, which was mostly from esurio's ISO. Let me know if I missed something esurio.

raider was upfront with his plan to switch votes for reactions rather than make a few suspects and pursue the best scumtells. It would be a good way for scum to avoid taking serious stances on townies and buddies, but it would also put themselves into the spotlight early and plainly which could backfire. Sure scum could do it, but I've seen townies go for the "lol reactions" playstyle too and I think its more a matter of a player thinking the playstyle will be fun to try.

But one aspect I found concerning is how he reacted to votes on him. If he felt justified in voting people "just because", he shouldn't have been so critical of the votes on him that didn't contain reasoning in the post.

I said I was going to vote someone different in each of my posts just because.

Hell yeah I love being lynched day one for no real reason!

I'm so glad you are contributing to this game care to post why or is this just another vote with no reasoning?

Any your reasoning is where, comments, add-ons to what other people have said? You are just another lazy person adding the votes on.

There is also the point that raider is the one unknown from the major end of day 1 wagons. But 4 wagons in a large feels like 2 in a mini, and I don't think like that's ever good at random odds.

And the argument about the SV wagon moving unnaturally, suggesting that scum were hoping to avoid a raider lynch? Who exactly could be the scum doing that? I think one would have to argue scum in {Amished, Charlie, KMD} because they all switched when their own wagons still had {one more, equal, one less} votes respectively. None of their reasons for switching are very good either, so its worth looking into them again because I haven't felt any are scum for a while now.

I will agree that there is something suspicious about raider but it does not hit me as hard as Chrono or Ani has so far. I'll post on Plum next.

-------------

@Locke Lamora: Why did raider read scum to you in your post 859?

@Ythan: Can you elaborate on why raider's ISO is terrible, which you said in post 1820.
Haven't we seen other players with bad ISO's in this game? What makes his scummy that could not be applied to someone like SV or CSL?

[Jahudo]

So about Plum. Her big wall posts look alright for the most part. I don't know why she labeled Kmd as question mark scum in post 1697. Nothing preceded that from what I could see.

Plum PBPA tomorrow probably -- I have the day off. (And I have to stop putting off doing actual work for this game, augh.)

@esurio: Were you going to get to this sometime? I don’t know if you have any specific tells on Plum or if its all about raider.

-------------

@Locke: do you have anything specifically against Plum or is it all about raider?

-------------

But Plum's defence of Amished wasn't a "look at the whole post" it was "no that's not a tell." Sounds like scum defending a buddy, or scum defending a townie for town cred.

Meta links will help me see if Plum was acting genuine in post 1927.

@Plum: Can you find past games where you said you don’t trust “scum slips”?
Also, do you remember the “ways the phrasing could have happened by accident” you talked about in post 1927?

But now that I’ve looked over it again, I am wondering why she did not just stop at “I don’t believe this is a scumtell.” Instead she goes on to make the argument that 2 scum factions are unlikely, making this slip unlikely. Its strangely speculative behavior on her part, which makes me wonder why she felt the need to use it to bolster her position at all?

-------------

However, Plum's defense did, not mentioning that obvious flaw, is still just as suspect, and that casts suspicion on him as well as her defendee.

Is it suspect for the same reason Chrono thinks it is?

[Jahudo]

Batt revising a line from his post doesn't mean anything to me. The line was already there in the first post, so its not like he was trying to hide something that he thought would make him look bad. And I've seen those "That's because you are scum!" lines all the time. Means nothing. Plum and KMD are overreacting.

After sleeping on it, I'd lean scum on raider/Plum right now. I won't put her to L-2 right away tho.

Anyone know what species of fish that is?

Its a robot

[Jahudo]

About KMD?

I wonder if I'm misreading his analysis because it looks like he's arguing Fishy is least likely to have considered the NK'ed targets a threat. And yet he's saying Fishy is as good as caught scum. And his analysis seems to imply Charlie is most likely to be scum, yet KMD is still calling Charlie town.

I don't put much stock into what he's doing. There are other variables that could be in play with NK choices, like scum could be PR hunting or taking out unlikely lynch targets.

@KMD: How high up is Rhinox on your suspect list? Do you consider him off-limits because of his multiple votes?

[Jahudo]

Batt: Yes, but not for their tag team on you.

I have concerns about Plum's early listing of KMD as "scum?" with no explanation. If Plum is scum I don't see a logical reason to start planting the seeds for KMD if he's not in her group. He hasn't been wagoned and it would be easier for her to make an empty commitment about someone previously voted on. So I think it could be a possible distance, or Plum is town and just hasn't been able to articulate her suspicion yet. I guess I didn't ask her that yet, only commented on it. So,

@Plum: Why did you list KMD as "scum?" in post 1697?

[Jahudo]

Jahudo- Kmd has listed Plum as 100% town just about, while you've pointed out that Plum has possible distanced herself from Kmd. Is that a possible link?

We've seen for a while now that KMD doesn't mind being connected to Plum. He must be aware that he's setup that speculation with a post like this:

Plum, I'm trying to help these people see that you are town. Work with me a little!

So maybe he's playing a scummy mind game or maybe he's betting on being right.

Also, why do you give Plum an out, essentially? You tell us/her that voting kmd with no reason is scummy, but also tell her/us that if she posts an articulate reasoning she is off the hook.

I don't see how I gave an out. There isn't even an "in" yet because I don't know why she put KMD in the scum list or why there isn't anything else on the subject.

[Jahudo]

Chronopie, who is the better lynch today: Animorph or Plum? Do you have a defense for my case against you?

holycon, do you need help finding the reasons of these top wagons, or are you just thinking about who to vote?

[Jahudo]

He's at L-1 now.

[Jahudo]

I read it as he was a one shot ninja in the columbian mafia.

The Chronopie flip makes me think Fishy is less likely to be a buddy of his, so I'm even less interesting in voting him today. Chrono stalled the SSBF wagon when Animorph was only slightly less of a wagon. I'm less sure what it meant for Chrono to join the Plum wagon then. It looks like a safe time for him to distance or show support for a wagon that could go to lynch another day.

----------
@Charlie: Why was Chronopie so neutral for you?

----------
@holycon: Why did you vote Chrono over Plum? You called Plum scummy yesterday but didn't mention Chrono yesterday until your intent to vote, so I'm wondering what made you find him scummier.

----------
@Nachomamma: Why did you vote your town? It was 3 days before deadline. Was Plum a stronger town read for you? What did your Ani/Fishy read end up being yesterday, or were you still not sure?

---------
@Rhinox: What did this quote mean?

Seeing that chrono is finally getting some attention, I want to unvote, vote chrono.

I know you were gung-ho for a Chrono lynch in the earlier days, but I didn't get that vibe from you yesterday. I thought you were moving your read of him to center, so why act like he still deserved attention?

[Jahudo]

EBWOP:

Nacho: Why did you vote your town

read

?

[Jahudo]

I'm happy with Charlie, holy and Rhinox's answers, I can fill in those missing steps in the reasoning and they seem to fit well. Nacho's reasoning is still a mystery to me.

I agree with Batt on Ythan getting Chrono's votes. It doesn't make him a good lynch on its own, and I don't see Ythan as a good lynch anyway right now.

@KMD: Are you still adamant about a Fishy lynch? I want to try and understand all your reads better today and separate what is gut reasoning, what is VCA, and what is from the suspect's posting. So where do I start?

[Jahudo]

Nacho, but why did you vote Chrono?

[Jahudo]

Actually, I'm good with Nacho right now.

I'll probably support a Plum lynch. I think Raider has a questionable history, and the slot connects fairly well with Chronopie.

So raider, the likely early wagon, get turned around. of the early jumpers to the SV wagon, SSBF was the one without much reason.

His argument makes the most sense if he also thinks Raider is scum, but he never says as much. Otherwise why would he focus on the early jumpers? Late jumpers without reason could still be scum for following the bandwagon, but its early jumpers who could have an interest in protecting scum by voting town.

But Plum's defence of Amished wasn't a "look at the whole post" it was "no that's not a tell." Sounds like scum defending a buddy, or scum defending a townie for town cred.

I saw this two ways (Plum could either be scum with him or a townie), but after reading it along with the rest of his ISO, one scenario looks more likely. That he was distancing when it was safe and opportune to do so.

I feel that Plum's 'Sense of surety' of what's genuinely scummy needs a recalibration.

Here Chrono loses his confident and clear Plum read. If he wanted to argue this was Plum-scum tactics he could have easily argued it like before. But he focuses on the 'Plum being wrong' part as if she could just be misguided. It reads to me like he wants to pull his suspicion back so that he can justify a vote switch, which he does to Fishy.

Now I see 3 more scenarios.

1)

He thinks Plum has enough suspicion to get lynched, and is moving onto Fishy next.

But this doesn't feel like the move he pulled with SSBF, where he sheeped Ythan to "forget" he had ever called SSBF scummy. This time he still sheeps KMD but also says Plum is scummy. Its hard to interpret because he could just be protecting himself here, whereas he wasn't under suspicion when SSBF and Ani were the wagons. But if he wanted to protect himself more, I think he would have voted Plum when he had more justification for that vote anyway.

2)

Its all about Fishy, and Chrono was bussing.

If that's the case then why didn't he care when Ani was nearly lynched over SSBF, and instead Chrono left SSBF for Plum? It doesn't look like Chrono and Fishy are connected.

3)

Fishy was the largest town wagon

. It seems reasonable that he would go for Fishy-town instead of bus Plum-scum in this scenario because most of the players off the three major wagons were actually in favor of Fishy over Plum or Chrono. (Nacho, holy and Rhinox has all recently said as much in their ISOs) Amished was a wild card since he had been V/LA so long. Even I had expressed suspicions of Ani, so Chrono could have believed he could save himself and lynch town.

--------

I still want to look more at Plum herself before I feel comfortable voting though, and look at her old Charlie case again to see if there's merit to it.

@Plum: What caused your KMD turnaround? How do you feel about Fishy now?
-And if KMD was a ? for his interpretation of Ythan-Richard, why didn't you put Batt as ? too?

And a few old questions I don't think I figured out.
-Do you remember the “ways the phrasing could have happened by accident” you talked about in post 1927?
-Why did you include the unlikelihood of 2 scum factions into your argument that Amished's post was not a big deal? Why not stop at "scumslips aren't a good tell"? Why use setup speculation to bolster your position?

[Jahudo]

Rhinox, the problem I see with holycon is that she's spent so much time in V/LA (which I have to believe is legitimate V/LA) that her lack of scumhunting and lateness in joining wagons close to deadline can't be as reliable a point as it normally could. How do you see holycon's vote as a possible bus? Take into account that she was suspicious of Chrono earlier in the game. Does that time frame look like possible distancing too?

I have a neutral stance on holycon because I don't think we've seen the "real her" in this game very much.

chrono seemed to have a very powerful role ability that evidence points to as being unused

What do you mean? The only type of evidence I can think of is a tracker/watcher claim, like a watcher who saw no one target someone who got killed.

-------------------------
-------------------------

Plum, I think I get the gist of your Charlie case from your ISO. I assume you stopped trusting him

because

you stopped trusting KMD?

- He has a tendency to slip under the radar.
- He uses jokes to avoid answering questions and getting into serious discussion early.
- He tried to discredit Twomz by suggesting scum inventor when in reality that is a less common alternative to being town inventor.
- He doesn't commit to his stance on Richard's claim even though he tries to discredit that too.
- The post with his multiple FoS's doesn't lead anywhere.
- Something about how adamantly he argued Michel was town. (@PLUM: What was the specifics on that one?)
- He flip-flops on SSBF.

@Plum: Do you think Charlie kept doing those first two points after you first addressed them? I already don't believe its a big deal.
* Points 3 & 4 are sideways attacks that look suspicious, but the discrediting part is taking a stance and making a commitment. He didn't look for the popular town opinion before giving his own.
* There is something strange going on in point 5 and the few posts of his that follow it. I have to look more at how he came to that post in order to see if its realistic as town or not.
* Point 6, ?
* Point 7 is something Chrono did... sheep on the issue of SSBF. But Plum sheeped on the issue of Fishy, then flopped. Is that not comparable to what Charlie did? Trust your town read's judgement?

So if you liked this case, and didn't like the top wagon (Ani), why didn't you rally people to yours or be more pro-active in questioning Charlie? You looked comfortable making little posts after your Charlie vote, up until when you decided to trust KMD (and thus trust Charlie). And I don't think V/LA stopped you. This is a concern for me.

[Jahudo]

Hmm, now I have to understand the Battousai wagon. (I'll omit the animorph case because that was just lolz)

- The part where he said "Because they are part of your scum team, that's why" and then dropped it in the EBWOP version.

I don't find the edit scummy because obviously he'd know the line had already been said and anyone could read it, so its not like he was trying to hide. I can see his defense that its a line that can't be answered seriously. And that kind of bravado talk is a common feeling to have as town when you are confident but don't see alot of support. I don't think its forced.

- Plum has a strong gut feeling and hasn't been wrong in the past.

This means nothing to me. Even I wouldn't bet on my strongest reads if I was on a hot streak.

- "Blatant paranoia-mongering rhetoric."

Eh, there is some merit to Batt's arguments even though I disagree with the conclusions. But its not paranoia mongering.

Kmd is making town actions that result in scum benefits (wagon analysis that doesn't take into account reasons for voting, erroneous NK analysis/IIoA

It wasn't a method I would support, and I think it could be good busy work for scum who wouldn't want to commit to anything right away. But I don't think KMD was doing it for that reason. He was already set on getting Fishy lynched, so he wasn't avoiding a bold move.

the fact he has me/ythan/rhinox as most likely scum but choose to focus on the person with 1 vote even though we are most likely near lylo

Hoping to get more votes out of scums' hands? Yeah, I can see that argument. He'd had to prove he was more confident in Batt than Ythan or Rhinox. Ythan as lower I can see from a quick ISO. Its harder to weigh his Batt and Rhinox reads from the past couple of days, other than the VCA which placed Rhinox way above Batt. Though I guess it was never completed but still.

That is how decent scum play. They make moves that they expect to be interpreted as reasonable town play, even though it resulted to benefit scum.

Is this under the assumption that KMD is scum with either Rhinox or Ythan?

If at least one of the scum falls into the category of "giving off a town vibe," lets call him Kmd, they can't kill him and they can't kill of one of the last townies that give off a town vibe as it would become suspicious later that "Kmd" is still alive and has multiple votes.

This speculation is lessened now that we can speculate whether or not Fishy stopped the kill, but I don't think there's a lack of town-vibe players that are shared by most of us. I think half the town is being seriously suspected for scum while the other half is being considered for PoE candidates. And actually I think you and Nacho made KMD a serious candidate yesterday so he wouldn't be in much danger of looking suspiciously town and still alive.

- 3 Days on the "Scum Set TM'S"

I don't think this means much since there weren't any serious wagons (other than 3 votes on Plum) of people still alive. So almost everyone, town and scum, were voting town in those sets. Although I can see now that KMD was betting on SSBF being scum there, in order to boost his case and prevent him from looking hypocritical (as someone who was already on 2 town wagons when he posted that).

- Vote jumping

KMD argued that Batt jumped from Twomz to Plum to Xite to SV, also saying most important VC was Plum's. I guess that's still true but I can also see that SSBF vote hopped just as much day 1, while Chrono only voted 2 people. It would matter more if the reasoning for hopping looked forced, but KMD didn't argue that.

All in all I'm not feeling this wagon.

-------------------

Charlie, do not get between a red panda and his dinner.

[Jahudo]

@holycon: Is Plum your top suspect?
@Locke: Is holycon your top suspect?
@kunkstar: Are you staying on Plum or switching to holycon, now that she has a wagon?

I'm ready to vote Plum but am willing to hear about the other two wagons if there is any information I have not seen.

[Jahudo]

I can't think of a scum advantage in Rhinox's posts for not knowing, or pretending to not know what a ninja role does. So the issue seems unimportant to me.

1. My main reason for Batt is his reactions to everything in that he OVER reacts to things when they don't go his way like back when we were lynching Richard he was getting angry because a few of us weren't ready to end the game quite yet and to me that doesn't seem very town behavior

I don't understand the example you provided. The only two wagons of any size were on town. Yes, some people were not ready to end the day, but I don't see any indication they were going to suggest a lynch of anyone we don't already know is town. Locke suggested SSBF was better, but he ended up being town too.

So why would Batt-scum care to end the day right then?

[Jahudo]

Hmm, it looks like you can hammer Plum without me Ythan. The only thing I'm waiting on today is hearing Nachomamma's Batt case, to see if it looks justified and townish or not.

But I like a Plum lynch and am ready to hear her claim if Ythan is.

@Rhinox: So did you see the Columbian part as flavor, but didn't see anything that looked like a role (RB, Voyeur, etc?)

[Jahudo]

Did anyone point me to a place where the case on plum is summarized yet? Just trying to get a feel from players currently voting her where the motivation for lynching her is coming from.

I think the Chrono-Plum connections are pretty strong. Have you looked at yesterday again taking into account that Chronopie was a ninja role and not an extra kill? Does that change anything for you?

[Jahudo]

My raider read: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 4#p2540994
My thoughts on Chrono and the raider/Plum slot: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 3#p2568513

[Jahudo]

Batt came in attacking Ythan strongly when he replaced in, keeping the assault up for the majority of the day while defending Richard.

I wouldn't characterize it like that. His thought process looked fairly normal, from where he had a valid opinion in the beginning that transformed by thinking about other variables.

Then suddenly, he finds Richard the best lynch of the day, but still manages to distance from it by calling it an "information", and announcing from a 2 post banter session that he has suddenly found Ythan pro-town.

It didn't look like a sudden switch at all, there were other posts that indicate it wasn't just an information lynch. I'm not sure which 2 post banter you are talking about. I see a 2 post banter with Ythan, shortly after Batt's Richard vote, but that actually states he still thinks Ythan is scummy.

Then, the next day, he posts a bunch of mumbo jumbo and votes SSBF, who was, if I'm not mistaken, the counterwagon for Richard yesterday.

The counterwagon for animorph actually, but I think his vote there looked more like a placeholder without much confidence in it. Whether that was intentional or not, it doesn't feel like where he wanted to be voting at the time (Ythan).

Of course, this vote doesn't last long and is followed by a vote for Ythan that apparently isnt moving for the entire day... which is later explained to be because Batt doesn't like playing with him, he's not that strong of a scum tell, SSBF's a better lynch anyways.

It reads to me like he always thought Ythan was a better vote, and SSBF was more of a placeholder / later a deadline compromise. Which in itself could be a concern, a way to stay on a wagon without committing to it and trying to promote another one instead. But we don't know Ythan's alignment for one thing

I also would like to point out it's unlikely that we don't lynch a single scum for 4 days, then suddenly wagon 2 with no real third counterwagon.

This according to who? And I think Fishy could count as a counter-wagon.

His suspicion of kmd is reaching at best. His insistance at everyone calling or thinking kmd is a bit odd, considering that I haven't seen that sentiment myself, and is most likely to be coming from scum who is trying to get a player he regards as a threat lynched.

What do you mean? How do you think his suspicions is reaching? It sounds like you are focusing on the part where he asks everyone to look at KMD's actions and give their opinion. But what sentiment haven't you seen, his?

EDIT: I just saw your vote Rhino, I guess I'll hold off my vote because it would be a hammer and Plum hasn't claimed yet.

[Jahudo]

Well lets find out, shall we.

Vote: Plum

[Jahudo]

I think we should massclaim today. If we're facing a single mafia it might only be 4-5 including Chrono (so not lylo in terms of players), but the voting power could already be more or swing really far tomorrow.

BTW, Fishy and Ani are awesome.

[Jahudo]

Charlie,

I recently just realized that Colombia is a South American country.

Chronopie was not Colombian.

08 chronopie - One Shot Columbian Mafia Ninja - Lynched Day Five

When its spelled with a U, it could mean any number of things.
I think the mod might have chosen Columbia to trick us into thinking about games that use countries for multiple mafias. But I'm wary using this as evidence for a single mafia because it feels like trying to outguess the mod. Still, I think a single mafia is likely based on NKs (and the rarity of even/odd night killers).

[Jahudo]

Agreed. I'm going to put some trust in the reads of our dead townies and see who among them have valid cases on living people left. I do remember Fishy being uncomfortable about Ythan, so that is something I am not going to ignore today.

@Ythan: Has the past few days been normal play for you? Like when you kept your Chrono and Plum reads held to your chest for the most part. Or is this normal play given certain circumstances like your multiple votes or lack of pressure?

[Jahudo]

It sounds like massclaim can wait until tomorrow, that's okay.

Fishy didn't explain why he thought Ythan was scummy, but did tie Plum to him so maybe he would have downgraded his suspicion today. And Fishy flopped on Batt, but that also seemed tied to Plum so maybe Fishy would find Batt more suspicious today.

SSBF thought Batt was town, Ythan was kinda scummy, but thought Charlie was probably most scummy of the living players. Stuff for me to think about.

[Jahudo]

Holycon, why aren't you voting Batt?

[Jahudo]

I would prefer Charlie be lynched today. If he's town, lynch either Batt or Kunkstar. Probably Batt first.
If Charlie is scum, lynch Kunk followed by Nacho, then Batt as PoE I guess. (Assuming I'm dead meat and can't give my opinion tomorrow based on the flip)

Holycon is still a wild card for me, but I would be against her lynch before more scum flips or night action claims that relate to her. I think Charlie and/or Kunk scum flips would strengthen the case against her. I'm less sure how she would relate with Batt, I'm still thinking about that.

I feel good thinking Rhinox, Ythan, Esurio, Locke, and KMD are all town.

My reasoning is based on opinions of Fishy, SSBF, Plum, Michel and Diacria + my past cases + my gut on peoples reactions to Chrono and other wagons like old raider or new plum + A magic 8-Ball all thrown into a blender.

[Jahudo]

Vote: Charlie

x5

[Jahudo]

BAH

[Jahudo]

I'm sorry for lynching you Charlie