Succession Mafia (OVER!)

[Darox]

Apparently I have a gun pointed at an awesome dude. I should stop that.

Holster

Time to burn through 97 pages in a short amount of time.
If anyone could give me a summary of how they think the game currently stands, that would also be dandy. I might ask specific people in future, but whatever.

[Darox]

I just noticed Day 1 stretches all the way to page 52 and I am thus far only up to page 30.

This is it, isn't it. This is Mafia hell.

In other news, I would appreciate it if Ooba, you could give me your general opinion of how the game stands as is.

[Darox]

Hey Singer, maybe you haven't figured it out yet, but it looks like one cult is about to have a majority, which means we need to lynch FROM THAT SPECIFIC CULT. That also means that lynching someone from the other cult would be OPPOSED TO OUR WIN CONDITION AT THIS PRECISE MOMENT.

Think before talking, I swear.

Hi Darox. How's it going.

Hi Gurgi. Reading terrible VI play from past days is almost as bad as watching it unfold personally.

What makes you think one cult is about to have a majority? 4 nights seems to imply a maximum of 5 members per cult by now, with one killed, plus whatever the effects of cult doctors/roleblockers had. I'm only up to day 2 so excuse me if there is evidence to the contrary that I am missing.

[Darox]

I'm going to post this now and then I'm going to finish looking at Day 2 and then I'm going to go sleep before starting on the remainder of the game.

*Notes on the setup*
It seems from my read through that people are dealing with this game the wrong way. You can't just look for scummy play and lynch it. Even if you have amazing accuracy and get a recruit every day town will lose, because cults regenerate. This is compounded doubly so by the fact we (apparently) have 2 cults in competition. To the cults, the town is more like a chaotic resource than an enemy. To win, the cults just need to disadvantage the opposing cult so that in the endgame when the town has dried up, they have the numbers advantage. Town will never win if they don't kill both recruiters in relatively quick succession, preferably starting with the larger cult.

Lynching recruits is a waste of valuable time

, and it also dangerously shifts the balance of power. If one cult gets repeatedly culled while the other goes unchecked, it will end up too numerous for the town & opposing cult to combat, and they will win outright even if they lose their recruiter. Obviously, we don't want this to happen. On the other side, lynching recruits of a dominant cult also only serves to hurt town. It doesn't reduce the size of the dominant cult, it just gives time for the weaker cult to grow in power, while lowering the towns weight and thus their overall chances of winning.

*This may have already been said and I haven't reached it yet, in which case I apologize for repetition and making assumptions about peoples cult knowledge

[Darox]

This is pretty much just stream of conciousness as I worked through the thread.

Day 1:

- I really want to see furcolow & vezokpiraka not be here by the time I reach day 4.
- Add ReaperCharlie to the "I hope I don't have to deal with him" list
- What is with all this caps lock. Really guys?
- Maybe I should listen to porochaz and skip ahead, this stuff is mind numbing.
- Add gandalf to that list.
- I HAVE A BAD META SO IT'S OK HE HAS A BAD META SO IT'S OK YOU HAVE A BAD META SO Oh god make it stop.
- Yosarian probably did get recruited N0. He's also right that voting him based on that assumption is dumb and also that recruiters are #1 priority.
- Oh jesus there are even more pointless and terrible acronyms since last I played.
- I don't really like pretty much everything Ooba has done today.
- Really animorph should have been on the list from the start.
- Why with the soft claims. Especially you Andrius.
- Dram's appearance after being called out for lurking and his subsequent comments don't feel right to me.
- Ergo, Faraday and Chrono have had pretty much 0 presence so far.
- Both sides of Andrius vs xvart is making Andrius look bad.
- "I need meta to form any kind of opinion on <name>"

ihateyouihateyouihateyouihateyou

- Porochaz and Gurgi are playing sensibly. They are rare gems in a river of slurry.
- This alliance is a terrible thing and the idea should never have been conceived.
- RC: You're bringing up two-word posts from 28 pages ago as new points of discussion? Really? REALLY?
- I could not dislike the way Andrius is softclaiming more. In fact, you're going on the list, even though I know you're still alive.
- "No, I'm not outguessing the mod, I'm just trying to figure out role placement based on mod flavour" Why do you do this to me RC?
- "Here are two games where dramonic is scum. This proves that dramonic is scum." Sigh. I can't even get worked up about this any more.
- Andrius: "Teehee I'm totally not a mason you guys" Forget what I just said, this is awful.
- Oh boy more meta discussion
- "their posts, which I haven't even read yet, just FEEL like scum" This game is filled with winners.
- This quote by Andrius is hilarious "You've got idiotic vezok going "LOLOLOL i don't help the town at all but I'll sit here and softclaim some type of helpful role and be USELESS"."
- Oh man, Andrius is a gold mine: "I'm going to be cutesy and coy and constantly softclaim, but get REALLY upset when forced to commit to a claim"
- Still don't like Ooba's actions.
- After an agonizing final page, Day 1 is over, hooray. A terrible player who happened to be a cop got lynched. Unfortunate.

Day 2: Electric Boogaloo

- Ooba seems positive that the cults cannot kill at all. Why?
- Ooba's claim gets backed up by singer who claims an identical role, but I'm not too enamoured by Ooba's responses to the wagon.
- vezokpiraka continues to be a waste of space.
- On review, the cults not being able to innately kill makes some sense, and would also explain the abundance of weakened power roles.
- RC again points out that Yos is probably a recruit, and then Andrius has a very strange response. He suggests that scum would want a vig over potentially VT Yos, and that he would do so in the cults shoes. (Sure, makes sense, no problem with hypotheticals) He then proceeds to cite meta

(Seriously, what)

to back this up. Why? Why why why would you ever do this?
- Gurgi coming in and making some sense, especially about the cult cross fighting, then RC gets all dumb in response.
- "VI's exist, and you have to learn to deal with them"

No.

No, and screw you for saying that. No, and screw you for

thinking

that. That is the most poisonous thing you could possibly do.
- xvart doing some good stuff.
- RC's case against Ooba is the opposite of compelling
- Oh god it's even more softclaiming I hate you people.
- Singer suspects Ooba of fakeclaiming. Uhhh. The potential of singer being cult buddies with Ooba is pretty much the only reason he isn't 100% confirmed as a LC. Unless you are suggesting Ooba had access to a rolecop's results N0?
- This entire Faraday thing just looks messy.
- People... can't count? There's a bunch of speculation about cult powers and night kills that seems not know what 1, 2, & 3 mean and how they are different from each other.
- RC: "I was right about a lynched townie being town and Yosarian was wrong! THIS MAKES EVERYTHING I SAY GOSPEL" Ugh.
- Oh hey Yosarian also realizes that Ooba is almost certainly a LC and thus not a recruiter.
- The slow wrapping up of Day 2 is pretty ugly, but people at least seem to be realizing that recruiters are the #1 priority now.
- A cultist gets shot, and we don't get any idea of what side he is on. Massive blow to the town information wise, but what can you do

Other Stuff

Time to state the obvious again and say that people like Yosarian who are almost certainly recruits, assuming two competing cults, can be trusted, just as long as you keep in mind they are only working against the enemy cult, not for the town as a whole.

Now I'm going to go sleep, then come back with days 3-4 and conclusions.

Preview Edit: That's pretty much what I'm talking about. Yosarian isn't a friendly chummy buddy doing his best to help the town, he's still part of a cult. He's helping us because he wants to eliminate or cripple the other cult and the town is still the major player in this game, and he also knows we can't really afford to go around lynching recruits. Assuming he's going to hand us a list of names of his fellow cult members is absurd.

[Darox]

Right, into what is hopefully more important discussion.

Day 3:

- Andrius seems to think finding recruits is useful for the town.
- Reaper does the dumb thing and promotes the lynching of people he thinks are recruits.
- Cult doctors and role speculation, oh my.
- Yosarian is still pretending he's not cult.
- Wasting LC bullet as a double vote, ugh.
- Why does Andrius think getting a town result would be a waste? A town result means a not-recruiter result. It doesn't matter if they get recruited later, you still confirmed them as not being a recruiter.
- Yos is wrong about what the cop should be doing. Yes, we want to know who all the cultists are and what side they are on, but until the recruiters are dead that information is useless to us.
- ReaperCharlie fails at reading comprehension and fills the thread with walls of pointless text.
- I'm not happy about the way singer has been bouncing back and forth on Ooba.
- inHim seems content to lay low and not really do much. Not liking that.
- Oh hey I'm replacing inHim. Never mind.
- Why does Ooba think singer shooting themselves is a good idea?
- I would have been so much happier if Singer shot Ooba instead of all this double vote and suicide nonsense.
- If singer was already recruited then there really wasn't anything the town could do about it, but whatever.
- Gurgi is right about Andrius and his usefulness as a cop, and everyone disagreeing isn't thinking clearly.
- Friend dies and we get a lovely ???? instead of a name for the double vote (Flay, you are such a tease)
- The double vote play doesn't make any sense as any alignment except recruiter, but I'm making the grievous error of assuming people would play optimally rather than winging it and not thinking ahead.

Day 4:

- Oh hey people finally realize Yos is a recruit thanks to Andrius investigation. Why are they voting him?
- The Flameaxe-Chrono exchange is interesting.
- "I am

now

a recruit" Oh you card Yos.
- If we fuck up and lynch a townie today, we're still not totally screwed unless there is another kill floating around.
- Oh jesus RC claims cop and makes a bunch of dumb assumptions. Also WIFOM bullshit. I hate you.
- Also for some reason RC seems to think people would assume his actions are playing against his win conditions? Why? He also doesn't seem to understand Yosarian's motivations, or that telling the truth and trying to help us kill the opposite cult is not only within his win cons, it's pretty much optimal play for his team.
- Porochaz is disputing the possibility of two cults, which really doesn't sit right with me. Gandalf continues to disappoint in the mean time.
- Good god I despise Andrius' comments about lynching Yos or Gurgi.
- Porochaz's unified scumteam theory falls flat because a cultist (And no one else) died night 2.
- More alliance bullshit?
- Xvart states he didn't get a roleblock pm night 1, creates a false dilemma saying that he, Andrius, or RC are a recruiter. Uhhhh.
- Ok turns out the lack of PM was mod error.
- So apparently robo hasn't actually been reading anything.
- I'm not liking Erg0's re-entry into this day.
- This double no result on Ooba thing really bugs me.
- The entire Ooba thing is a bad way to go. I kinda wish he would die, in order to tie up some confusing loose ends, but I don't think he should be lynched.
- RC doing dumb things again.
- What do you make of Faraday (An unrecruited VT) giving no result N0 as according to RC? This seems to throw the biggest spanner into the "Ooba is recruiter because of no-result" theory.

I'll be making up a list of connections on who is/isn't a recruiter candidate in the near future, and I'll have a bunch of questions for Yosarian.

Another point of note:

There have been 3 kills this game. There have been 3 Loose Cannons claimed. One of these LC's has said they used their single shot as a double vote on Day 3.
That leaves 1 unaccounted kill.

That means either cults have some seperate killing ability, or there is a fourth LC. And if that person is town, WHY HAVE YOU NOT CLAIMED?

[Darox]

Oh, and because I didn't see it while reading up, Singer, what do you plan to do if you win?

[Darox]

And actually since I'm pretty sure he didn't give it either, RC, what are your plans if you win?

[Darox]

Xvart, what do you think of this:
- What do you make of Faraday (An unrecruited VT) giving no result N0 as according to RC? This seems to throw the biggest spanner into the "Ooba is recruiter because of no-result" theory.

And the fact that zwet claimed to be targeting dramonic.

[Darox]

You guys aren't calculating that I'm a vigilante, and that I'm planning on vindictively shooting dramonic tonight.

Dram came back only because of threats of his imminent lynch. Kill him NAO

These two mostly.

[Darox]

Ok, first a write up of obvious shit to help sort things out.
We are going on the assumption that power roles, cop investigated town, and cop investigated cultists all != recruiter, but that recruiters are smart enough to realize this.

People who fit this:
Andrius - Claimed Enforcer (Supported by RC, Yosarian)
Chronopie - Claimed Roleblocker (Supported by Yosarian2, Xvart, Flameaxe) , Investigated Town (RC#3)
Lord Gurgi - Investigated Town (RC#2+A#2)
ooba - Claimed Loose Cannon (Supported by singer, no counterclaim on zwet kill)
ReaperCharlie - Claimed Enforcer (Supported by Andrius), Investigated Town (A#0)
Robocopter87 - Claimed Consigliere (Supported by Yosarian)
singersigner - Claimed Loose Cannon (Supported by Ooba, dayvote use)
Yosarian2 - Investigated Cultist (A#3)

Things of note here:
- Chronopie has the strongest ties proving his role, with 3 separate people confirming his night actions and 1 cop investigation
- The only ties Ooba & singersigner have are each other and their claimed actions.

Yosarian

:
- Do cultists retain their powers upon recruiting?
- Do the cults have a way of killing separate from using a recruited Loose Cannon?

I know you have been asked both of these before and denied answering, but consider the following:
- Your team has a much better chance of winning if you help us kill the opposite recruiter as compared to trying to fight the opposite cult for recruits.
- Answering the above questions (Especially the second) will help prove/disprove Ooba & Singersigner as non recruits which will be invaluable in finding the enemy recruiter as well as preventing a possible mislynch today.

And another question:
- What do you think of defending someone who is an imminent lynch today by revealing them as a cultist buddy?


In other news, doing ISO's on the people not on the above list.

[Darox]

Checking in...not really any new thoughts. I suppose I could be persuaded to switch to an Erg0 wagon...so what's the case on him again?

1: He hasn't claimed a power role or been investigated.
2: He's lurking.

That's pretty much it.

[Darox]

Quick follow up question for Yosarian.

Do cults have daytalk?

[Darox]

Why is gandalf less red than everyone else?

[Darox]

Gurgi. She is ALREADY RECRUITED. That is PAINFULLY F#%&ING OBVIOUS.

Remind me again why we suffer you to live, when Mr. Obvrecruit Andrius over there was the one who cleared you as town?

FoS: Lord Gurgi

Not to mention you make NO sense.

Also. I swear. xvart, we need to hydra soon, I think my brain might explode otherwise.

Cue: Gurgi defending the guy who investigated him as town.

OH WAIT SH*T HE BEAT ME TO IT. THE GUY IS TELEPATHIC.

Gurgi can swing too.

Uh....

'cause you are obviously recruited scum, and tried to clear him as town. Last time I remember somebody doing that... hmmm.... OH WAIT, IT WAS

ME

IN HARRY POTTER CLEARING JMJ/MAGNA AS TOWN, AND HE TURNED OUT TO BE MY SCUM BUDDY. THEN HE PROCEEDED TO SKATE ALL THE WAY TO ENDGAME AND A BEAUTIFULLY PERFECT SCUM VICTORY. HERP DERP A LERP

How do you explain these posts on day 3 RC?

[Darox]

Anyone down for an RC lynch?

The only tie he has proving his enforcer role is Andrius.

He has a clear personal link to Andrius, and it's not inconceivable that he recruited him N0. The only results he has that differ from Andrius are Faraday N0, and Chronopie N3. On N0 Andrius apparently investigated RC. It's not hard to see Andrius feeding RC his result and fakeclaiming his N0 to clear RC. The N3 result could be the result of either a recruitment plus fakeclaim, or Andrius bluffing and calling cult on Yos (Who has been an obvious cult member since D1), while feeding his real result to RC again.

I think I'm going to look more deeply into Andrius' interactions with Faraday & RC. In the mean time tell me your thoughts/yell at me because you're in RC's cult.

[Darox]

Why are you being goaded by Ooba? Stop it now. We're going down the wrong path here, I'm just not sure where the right path is. Probably with all the people that haven't been posting since the Ooba wagon picked up again. Prozac needs to post more, Erg0 needs to be shot more, I have had enough from RC, Andrius, Robo, ooba, and the cultist PR campaign.

What about my proposed direction?

RC is a bad lynch
- I have a non-recruiter vibe. Misguided townie or tunneling scum but not recruiter
- Setup argument : one would assume there to be more than one enforcer .. And since it's possible LyLo I'd expect any others to have claimed already.
- Ask yourself these questions .. If I'm a recruiter, Would I risk my head by claiming cop ? Even if I wanted to push an ooba-lynch, why not ask a minion to do it ?

1a: Andrius has survived 4 game days and 3 nights since claiming cop. I don't think it would be much of a risk claiming to be a third cop.
1b: Confirmed power roles have been pretty much decided to be guaranteed non-recruiters
2: Having two negative cop claims helps bolster support, and with the lack of his own cop power he can't get too creative with his own results (Relying solely on Andrius' results and whatever he can learn/fake as a recruiter)
3: Pushing a lynch on an 'easy' target means a day without one of his members being lynched and brings him closer to victory. The fact you have survived 2 game days since Andrius claimed his No Result on you shows it's going to take more than that to get you lynched.

[Darox]

@ Quag: Giggity. Love your poker face. And whatever you decide to do, hurry up, either way. And preferably, vote for ooba.

@ Darox: rofl. Cause I'd TOTALLY stick my neck out/paint a target on my back if I was a recruiter. Yeaahh that makes sense.

I've already explained why claiming enforcer doesn't put you at risk at all and in fact strengthens your ability to stay alive. Especially doing so on day 4, after the roleblocker has claimed and what looks like 4 LC actions have been taken.

@Goaded by Ooba:
I didn't even realize you might have been referring to me at first, since I didn't have Ooba (Or RC's case against Ooba) in mind at all when thinking of this situation. My first thought was Andrius being the recruiter and recruited RC, but then I noticed that didn't make sense for several reasons. Then later on when looking at Erg0's posts I realized everything fitted if RC was the recruiter instead.

1a: Andrius has survived 4 game days and 3 nights since claiming cop. I don't think it would be much of a risk claiming to be a third cop.
1b: Confirmed power roles have been pretty much decided to be guaranteed non-recruiters
2: Having two negative cop claims helps bolster support, and with the lack of his own cop power he can't get too creative with his own results (Relying solely on Andrius' results and whatever he can learn/fake as a recruiter)
3: Pushing a lynch on an 'easy' target means a day without one of his members being lynched and brings him closer to victory. The fact you have survived 2 game days since Andrius claimed his No Result on you shows it's going to take more than that to get you lynched.

- By risk I did not mean the risk of dying, its the risk of situations where he is counter'd e.g "I am a roleblocked. I blocked RC yesterday - couldn't have got a innocent on Chronopie".
- The confirmed power roles not being a recruiter is actually a double edged sword - people tend to get paranoid (Take my own case). Even so, RC was already confirmed by Andrius's N0 result as non-recruiter. (Assuming Andr\RC, the additional risk point still holds).
- While 3 is true, I come back to my point of "If he is recruiter, why not get one of his minions to claim and do the same thing?"
[/quote]

1: He didn't claim until it was revealed that being RB'd gives you a notification.
2: My theory is based on the fact that the only link proving RC is Andrius. Andrius being recruited N0 is stated in my initial accusation.
3: Getting a cultist to reveal himself is a very dangerous thing, it provides a number of links to other cultists and the recruiter, as well as gives the town an easy lynch for future.

[Darox]

Oh hey check out those broken tags.

@gandalf: If we lynch the recruiter, we need to get the opposite recruiter.
If we manage that feat, we then need to lynch from the remaining cultists alternating so that neither cult gets too large a majority.

If we only lynch one recruiter, the other cult team (even if it's initially the smaller of the two) will win.
A cult recruiter sacrificing themselves and this point is suicide of their team.

[Darox]

Robo:

I personally feel you're a recruit since the hop on-to my wagon was too easy. Wouldn't you rather try for the opposite recruiter?

I despise this sentence with every fibre of my being. I'd be willing to vote you based on this alone if the singer business made any sense.

- Push a case very strongly on somebody else

This however made me laugh.

[Darox]

That doesn't provide the protection of being a claimed power role to RC though. Like I've shown, claiming enforcer when RC did has zero risk and high gains, especially with Andrius supporting him.

[Darox]

Read properly.
"Robo: I personally

feel you're a recruit

since the hop on-to my wagon was too easy. Wouldn't you rather try for the

opposite recruiter

?" - If he's a recruit, he should be gunning for the opposite recruiter ..

Saw that, still sounds scummy as hell.

[Darox]

I just noticed that the 3 claimed LC/4 LC actions discrepancy would explain the singer/ooba confusion, so unless Yosarian comes and tells me cults have the ability to night kill, I'm suddenly more amendable to lynching Ooba.

[Darox]

Read properly.
"Robo: I personally

feel you're a recruit

since the hop on-to my wagon was too easy. Wouldn't you rather try for the

opposite recruiter

?" - If he's a recruit, he should be gunning for the opposite recruiter ..

Saw that, still sounds scummy as hell.

Not really .. I was trying to figure out why each person was voting me and convincing each of them .. Robo's jump looked like "Hey. Here's an easy mislynch" scum jump .. Vezo's actions gave me a clear non CR read -> There recruit .. Thought the only way to appeal to a recruit is to tell him I'm not the opposite CR he's looking for and ask him to jump on ..

Ok now it looks less scummy as hell, just poorly worded.

Also, I just noticed that the 3 claimed LC/4 actions thing still doesn't incriminate Ooba outright because it doesn't explain where the fourth action comes from. Unless of course, Yos comes in and tells us if cults can or can not decide to perform night kills.

[Darox]

I just noticed that the 3 claimed LC/4 LC actions discrepancy would explain the singer/ooba confusion, so unless Yosarian comes and tells me cults have the ability to night kill, I'm suddenly more amendable to lynching Ooba.

I'm not sure what you're saying here.

I'm also not sure how ooba could possibly be a recruiter here. I just don't get it, at all. I get the cop thing, but I don't at all understand how he knew the vigs were called "loose cannons" on day 1. The theory that he knew that because he recruited singer night zero and then used that to breadcrumb day 1 seems really iffy, especially considering how long singer was voting for ooba during a part of day 2 while ooba was in real danger; a recruit bussing her recruiter on day 2 doesn't make any sense at all.

This is why I was against lynching Ooba. If there was a fourth LC (And the kills suggest that), then Ooba as recruiter could have instead recruited them and thus learned what he needed to know to fakeclaim. (Couldn't have recruited Zwet because duh)

That sequence of events doesn't explain there being 4 LC actions taken though, so the only possible way Ooba is scum is if cults have a way to commit night kills without using a LC.

[Darox]

On review that's kinda ambigious. Yosarians points are why I was (and still kinda am) against lynching Ooba. The rest is separate from that statement.

[Darox]

I think the people currently pushing the Ooba lynch are dumb, lazy, or recruited.

Pick any combination of the three.

[Darox]

It makes me undecided.

But if it'll help you sleep at night, I'll vote RC because I still think he is a legitimate lynch choice today.

Aim: ReaperCharlie

[Darox]

Have you even read my posts against him?

[Darox]

Thank you. It's nice to have some support.

[Darox]

I notice you didn't read my posts either.

Thanks for playing.

[Darox]

What a champion player.

I love how everyone ignores how I pointed out claiming enforcer isn't a risk or a crazy move because they're so entrenched in how standard games work out.

[Darox]

We can always have a quicklynch just for you. We've still got 24 hours.

I'll be around to adjust my vote before and during the deadline anyway.

Hoping to see Quag say something before that hits, by the way.

[Darox]

Alright so I'm reading over the ooba case.. haven't started reading what's d2 and beyond yet, so I'm still trying to pick up what's happened in this game so far. Why are people suspicious of me/Erg0? Was Erg0 just a general lurker?

Someone other than ReaperCharlie explain these points to me. Tell me if he is right/wrong, and why he is right/wrong about these points:

1.

Why would signersigner

completely

waste

a vig shot

unless she was protecting someone? i.e. herself or a recruiter. Answer:

SHE WOULDN'T. THERE IS ABSOLUTELY NO REASON TO.

3.

We don't know that signersigner is a loose cannon at all.

She hasn't proven anything except for a mechanic which only ooba corroborates, and that the only confirmed loose cannon NEVER MENTIONED. Which leads me to the next point.

4.

We don't know that the

?????

vote was singersigner.

In fact, I'd bet good money that it

wasn't

her. It could have been anyone, not just her or ooba. The whole thing is, we KNOW NOTHING ABOUT THIS SITUATION. WHICH MAKES IT ALL FISHY.

So it's my understanding that during the game singersinger vigged someone at random. How do we know this isn't a case of a user making a silly 'newbie-like' decision? Can someone who has played with singersinger give me an idea of his meta? Is he one of those players? And what is this

?????

vote ReaperCharlie is talking about?

Singer has claimed a Loose Cannon role. They apparently have either a one shot night kill OR a one shot double vote ability. Singer chose to use the double vote ability day 3.

2.

We don't even know that ooba is a loose cannon at all.

He hasn't proven it except for claiming a nightkill that could have been a scum nightkill. Which was on one of the most pro-town people in the game at that point.

5.

The ONLY person who corroborates ANYTHING signersigner says is.... ooba. Great.

6.

The ONLY person who corroborates ANYTHING ooba says is.... signersigner. Great.

What is the connection between signersinger and ooba? What is 'corroborates' in this context?

OK, I'm going to read over this and hopefully get started on stuff d2 and beyond.

Singer and Ooba have both claimed the Loose Cannon role. He means they are the only people to confirm that the other has the role and how it works.

What we Know

General

1. There are two recruiting factions with one recruiter each. This is splained in the modposting.
2. Current speculation is that cultscum factions can either recruit or kill, once per night.
3. All players who started as town have role PM flavor about what they want to do when this is over.
4. It's pretty much LyLo. Unless you're in the big cult. See "Yosarian2" below for more info.

How do we know 2, and 4?

#2: We don't know at all.
#4: We don't. In fact it won't be LYLO for a while, but the town may not be a majority by tomorrow assuming worst case scenario.

[Darox]

So how about them deadlines.

And how about those people that haven't shown up for a long time.

[Darox]

Gandalf is the greatest lynch.

Aim: Gandalf

Quick before Flay notices.

[Darox]

Oh wait nobody else is around and I have no idea how close/past the deadline we are. Also my vote alone isn't enough to secure any lynch.

Awesome.

[Darox]

Except Ooba is a terrible lynch I mean really.

[Darox]

Flay, looking at the rules, can we have a short extension, possibly 3-4 days worth? Thanks

Seconding this request.

[Darox]

Lynching recruits is a waste of valuable time

, and it also dangerously shifts the balance of power. If one cult gets repeatedly culled while the other goes unchecked, it will end up too numerous for the town & opposing cult to combat, and they will win outright even if they lose their recruiter. Obviously, we don't want this to happen.

Thank you Captain Obvious.

But if it'll help you sleep at night, I'll vote RC because I still think he is a legitimate lynch choice today.

Aim: ReaperCharlie

wait, after what you just said...LOL?

Gandalf is the greatest lynch.

Aim: Gandalf

Quick before Flay notices.

Yarrrr... this is absolutely incredible. keep throwing that sh*t around to see where it sticks.





I would actually be down for a Darox lynch if we can't push the ooba one through.

Though I believe we can, and I believe it is the best lynch.

Yup, saying lynching recruits is a waste of time and then voting someone I think is a recruiter is a total contradiction.

Now that we have marginally enough time to not try for bullshit rushed lynch, can we lynch RC already?

It's pretty obvious that the large cult wants Ooba eliminated, but it's not enough for them to win, or they would have hammered already. That's good. I'm more inclined to lynch Gandalf since he's third in popularity and I don't think Quag is particularly a better lynch.

I actually would think the opposite: that the large cult doesn't want ooba dead and has the numbers to practically necessitate everyone that is not in their cult to coordinate against them. Anyone town and everyone not in ooba's cult that has not voted needs to put a vote on ooba now.

The fact of the matter is that ooba has evidence against him (whether or not you think that is good evidence is beside the point now). The other suggested people that might be recruiter are Erg0, Prozac, Gandalf, and for pretty much the same reason: lurking, flying under the radar, etc. So... with three options there, you want to take a chance that one of them is more likely the recruiter based on what? Where is the distinction? Why vote gandalf over Erg0 or Prozac and vice versa?

ooba has more evidence against him than the three that are all guilty of possibly being a recruiter based on similar playstyle.

xvart.

This is awful terrible awful and makes me suspect you are part of the cult. "It doesn't matter if you don't think there is a good case on Ooba, lynch him anyway because hey, everyone on Ooba is town because I said so."

Ooba has bugger all evidence against him that isn't outweighed by the evidence that he's a LC.

[Darox]

Hey guys, how about that RC lynch?

I don't know about all of you, but it sounds like an excellent idea to me.

[Darox]

So how about those ever encroaching and sadistic deadlines.
Let's drop the hammer on Gandalf before we end up with a no lynch.
We've got one day.

[Darox]

And yet it wasn't there when Erg0 was in the slot.

Maybe, just maybe, it has something to do with the fact that the only real reason Erg0 was up on trial was that he was a horrible lurker with no input and no ties to suggest he's not a recruiter. Or that gandalf is a detriment to the town with exactly the same evidence against him that Erg0 had. Or that what brief interaction with Quagmire has shown that he's not pants on head retarded like approximately half the people here.

Just joking, it's because he's our cult recruiter and we wuv him too much to lynch him.

[Darox]

I just realized you might have been talking exclusively to Chrono based on his above post.
It took me a while to realize this because of how staggeringly dumb that would make you.

Where ever that post was meant to be directed, it's terrible.

[Darox]

I'm Agostino, a Goon.

*sigh*

What the fuck just happened? That wagon happened WAY too fast to be anything BUT cult-coordinated.

What a stellar insight.

Are you sure you're equipped to handle running a pizzeria?

[Darox]

In recent news, Porochaz is not a VT.

[Darox]

Man you already pointed it out with big neon lights when you called Gandalf a liar.

So what role are you? The mysterious fourth Loose Cannon?

[Darox]

I got lynched because ooba was a recruiter, not because I was actually scummy.

Keep telling yourself that.

[Darox]

Honestly gandalf, if you even are town, it's your own fault you were lynched. If not... then... well, you got what was coming to you anyway.
I have gotten lynched a lot. It blows, so all I had to do was learn what NOT to do. And then.. wham-o! A miracle!. I stopped getting lynched.

For example:
Even with incontrovertible evidence against someone like Yos, Glork, or SpyreX, they still usually don't get lynched for at least a day or two.
Why? Cause they're exceedingly useful as either town or scum. Conversely, useless people don't need half a reason to get lynched. i.e. you.
No offense meant by that last, but if you're upset about being lynched as a townie for the gazillionth time, then it's time to look in the mirror.

If someone comes up with incontrovertible evidence against Yos or Glork they get their asses lynched right away. I think you're confusing incontrovertible with "Hey guys I'm totally lacking in town cred or proof, and I think Yos is scum!"

Also try reading this: https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?ti ... ood_Townie

Oh god that intro is so terrible why would anyone think this is good.
"Why bother playing if I’m a Townie?"
I mean, really. What the hell.

Also it suffers massively from usual wiki syndrome of 'Mafia do this. Don't do it as town. Lynch people who do.' as well as 'Mafia are the only people who push bullshit' and worst of all 'If you're a VT, let other people lead and just watch.'

You want a guide?

Protip: Think

If that isn't enough protip for you, I'll expand it.

Consider the goals of each possible faction in comparison to the actions of a person. Think about what actions make most sense for each faction. Remember to look at it from multiple sides, including the possibility that the person has no clue what they are doing. Consider the apparent emotional state as well as general play style of the person involved. Be willing to reconsider your conclusions based on new evidence or different angles. Test people to see if they match your expectations and gather more information. Don't treat anything as unshakable truth. Don't focus on one person to the extent that you lose sight of everyone else. Try to stick to Occam's razor in general; Don't discard outlandish possibilities, but remember that they are outlandish and weigh them accordingly.

There's probably some more general principles I could throw in and some stuff that will spark rebuttal from Mafia Discussion, but the underlying theme is Use Your Brain, it's not there just to keep you breathing.

[Darox]

So hey let's not lynch Quagmire right off the bat.
First, let's have a massclaim.

Let's start with obviously-not-a-VT-Porochaz.

[Darox]

Oh wait I skipped over porochaz's posts because they are so dull.

Never mind.

Let's get the rest of those going though.

[Darox]

PS if you can't work out my role I fear for your deductive powers.

[Darox]

Mobsters still in the building:

1. 
   
2. inHimshallibe

   Katsuki
   Darox
   - Investigated Town (RC #4)
   
3. Erg0
   Quagmire*
   - Scum? (A #4)
   
4. animorpherv1
   Flameaxe*
   
5. vezokpiraka
   Robocopter87
   - Claimed Consigliere (Supported by Yosarian)
   
6. xvart*
   
7. Yosarian2*
   - Investigated Cultist (A#3)

Actually the list of people who could be cult recruiter is a little larger. We should be lynching someone in this list today as they have no support along with there claim. The rest do to varying extents. Totally trusting RC and Andi in the latter days would not be smart.

Why am I on this list yet Gurgi isn't?
Pretty inconsistent.

@RC: Yes, I did, and I also note that Ooba was town despite two apparently damning cop results on him. Quicklynching Quagmire because of what Andrius said he got as an investigative result is a retarded move.

[Darox]

So hey we should have a massclaim because it cuts down the suspect pool and forces people to commit which is only a good thing for town at this point.
RC is scum or an idiot (Both) if he thinks delaying a massclaim is in favour of the town.

Ps. I can't believe RC was dumb enough to think I might be a fourth LC. Aside from the fact I showed my hand at the end of day 4, if I was a LC, I wouldn't have been worried about all that Ooba nonsense D4 and I would have shot him N4, not Ooba.

[Darox]

Hey Gurgi and Yos, as two of the people who would be claiming, what do you think of a mass claim?

[Darox]

Yeah yos, as a confirmed cult recruit, what do you think of claiming?

Cult Recruit =/= VT

I see no reason in not giving Yos a chance to stop being the useless blob that he is.
If he simply says "Nope because I'm a cultist" then we don't lose anything do we? And if he doesn't, we have an intelligent input, which is a very rare thing in this game.

Gurgi was the guy I was mainly asking though.

[Darox]

Im sorry, I forgot this was the game where everyone tells the truth and we should take everything at face value. What makes you think yos is even remotely interested even in this game anymore?

Where did I say I'm going to take their words at face value? If I follow your advice, I wouldn't be able to do even that anyway.

And again, what is the harm in asking?

A better question is: Why are you trying to stop inquiries?

[Darox]

Yeah yos, as a confirmed cult recruit, what do you think of claiming?

Cult Recruit =/= VT

Dude, why would i claim? And if I did, why would you believe me?

I see no reason in not giving Yos a chance to stop being the useless blob that he is.

"useless blob"? You guys very likely would have no-lynched yesterday if I wasn't here, and the same is probably true today. I'm quite useful, both to the town and to my faction. that dosn't mean I'm going to sit here and give the town all kinds of information that does nothing but hurt my side.

Mostly it was an afterthought of asking Gurgi, to give you a chance to not be a blob, which you are. You could pretty much be replaced by an unmarked double vote.

[Darox]

Let's lynch ReaperCharlie.
Already provided the reasons, not that anyone will reply to them, because it's easier for people to go "lol I'm a cultist I can just spout bullshit and waste time"

If he's a recruiter, success, if he's not, we're still rid of him.
It's a win-win.

[Darox]

Already provided the reasons, not that anyone will reply to them, because it's easier for people to go "lol I'm a cultist I can just spout bullshit and waste time"

Err... He was investigated town N0 by Andy...

It's like magic how I make all these accurate predictions.

[Darox]

You cannot base a theory that I am a recruiter on anything other than that Andrius is scum as well, and has been scum with me since Day 1.

It's almost like I am fully aware of this and explained the situation in depth and how it's not a stretch at all for my theory to have occurred in my previous posts.
Occam's razor isn't a good defence for you.

If nothing changes I'll lynch Quag at 6pm though.

[Darox]

How very astute of you to choose one of the last two besides yourself as recruiter.

And not both.

You just basically admitted you are one, and now we know where to find the other.

Which means xvart is probably the guy who was bodyguarding you last night.

Did you just imply that Quag is a recruiter and that he revealed the opposite recruiter as well by only mentioning Flameaxe?

See, this is why I want to kill you. Because that's RETARDED.

[Darox]

Well...

Looking for recruitment. Good skills, low self-esteem.

Pretty much this.

I don't even think the cults have that large a portion of the town claimed. Everyone is just running around playing silly buggers.

[Darox]

It's almost like people aren't playing this game.
I was the one claiming goon aka VT, and I was the one with an innocent result.

Andrius' reasons for suspecting RC make no goddamn sense and would actually serve to prove RC's claim as an enforcer. Pretty weak stuff you're pulling Andrius.

Why shouldn't Lord Gurgi & xvart claim?

[Darox]

Ok, I was just confused.
Because I distrust RC claiming the same role as me. And Harry Potter Mafia.
Basically, I don't want to trust him in my reasoning. I can do this without him.

How is that pretty weak stuff?

xvart is scum and doesn't need to claim.
I somehow remember Gurgi claiming VT; could be wrong.
They can claim if they want to, lol.

You just confirmed that not receiving an result PM before the thread opened was what you experienced as an enforcer.
RC divulged this fact before you.

Therefore, either you're both Enforcers, or he's in a cult with you (Psst, it's this one).

[Darox]

No, I usually got PMs before the thread opened, and this time it was different. :S

It wasn't an Enforcer thing; it was probably just Flay.

And yet he predicted the exact thing that happened to you before you even said a word?

This has got to be the worst attempt at distancing I have ever seen.

[Darox]

Hey Andrius, it's no fun if you play the silent game.

[Darox]

Flay wouldn't deliberately send some PMs before opening and some after, right?

What?
What are you even talking about here?
What do you think I'm talking about?

[Darox]

Now explain how your post relates to anything I've been saying at all.

[Darox]

Or, more specifically, how it contradicts anything I've said.

[Darox]

Yos is an amorphous blob. A slime creature. A jelly. A black pudding. A grey ooze.
He is the Mother Slime from which all blob creatures spawn.

He pretty clearly just stated he wasn't going to claim.

[Darox]

My mistake.

Updated the list:

Mobsters still in the building:

1. Andrius
   - Claimed Enforcer (Supported by RC, Yosarian) - Protected by Robo since N1
   
2. Chronopie
   - Claimed Roleblocker (Supported by Yosarian2, Xvart, Flameaxe) , Investigated Town (RC#3)
   
3. Darox
   - Claimed Goon - Investigated Town (RC #4)
   
4. Flameaxe - Claimed Goon
   
5. Lord Gurgi
   - ??? - Investigated Town (RC#2+A#2)
   
6. Porochaz - claimed Roleblocker
   
7. ReaperCharlie
   - Claimed Enforcer (Supported by Andrius), Investigated Town (A#0)
   
8. Robocopter87
   - Claimed Consigliere
   
9. singersigner
   - Claimed Loose Cannon (Supported by Ooba, dayvote use)
   
10. xvart
    - ??? - Investigated Cultist (A#5)
    
11. Yosarian2
    - Green Goblin - Investigated Cultist (A#3)

[Darox]

"Darox is pointing fingers at us, what will I dooooooo?
I know, I'll investigate him as town, that'll make him back off
Oh no, he's still pointing fingers!
We better call him a cultist to discredit him!"

How adorable.

[Darox]

second order of business: darox (almost 100% sure) got recruited last night, so you can't take anything he says at face value any more.

I forget actually, maybe you can find where you said I was a cultist today.

[Darox]

I sure feel safe knowing this dynamo of amazing reading and memory abilities is fighting the good fight.

[Darox]

Why has this game stalled? we're so close to taking out the other recruiter.

We are? It feels more like a game of "Follow the two incompetent cops"

[Darox]

What about the start of the day results PM's nonsense that all but confirms that RC is either in a cult with Andrius or they're both enforcers that I pointed out?

You know, that thing that everyone ignored that further ruined my faith in this towns ability to read.

[Darox]

Remember when I said that wasting the kill wasn't the cult aligned thing to do either?

[Darox]

So at this point I'm just waiting for Andrius to stumble onto the right answer for the wrong reasons (I have zero faith in his ability to get the right reasons) and tell us all what it is so I can watch everyone sheep him and continue to not get heard.

[Darox]

@Xvart
What little you have explained of your plan seems to consist of "I'll tell the roleblockers to block suspicious people, but not suspicious people who are in my cult"
And if the RB'ers are culted (Almost certainly are) they're either going to A: Be on your team and do that anyway or B: Be on the other team and ignore you.

@Andrius
Did you actually get anything that pinned xvart to the purple team, or are you just assuming that based on what he told you?

[Darox]

Oh hey remember when I posted all those legitimate theories and nobody actually read them? Or they skimmed enough of it to say "no that won't work because of x" where X was something I went into in detail and had explained how it didn't invalidate my theory.
You probably don't. Not reading shit has that effect.

You want input?
Robocopter is scum because Yos started attacking xvart shortly after (But not immediately) xvart starting pointing fingers towards robocopter.
Bam.

Try not to stumble over the big words while you read it. Make sure you read every word and don't substitute your own words.

[Darox]

Xvart #3042
Yosarian2 #3057

[Darox]

I'm pretty ambivalent, but I'll go with Robo because of that xvart/yos interaction.

[Darox]

I like this Yosarian much better than the previous one.

He's still just as useless to town, but you've got to admire someone who can sell snake oil with goddamn grin on his face.

[Darox]

You're doing a real good job of pretending to be town Chrono.

[Darox]

Oh hey so a quick vote count points to 6 votes on Robo. Also known as the majority.
How am I supposed to get my vote on if you lynch people while I'm sleeping?

[Darox]

So you're just going to out and claim cult now Chrono?

[Darox]

You tell me, you're the one that claimed cult.

[Darox]

Us RB'ers will target who we choose to target, based on what we believe is most beneficial. Beneficial for which faction, is the question...

Read: I'm so edgy and mysterious and you totally don't know what faction I'm on. I'm so sneaky, they don't suspect a thing, heheheh.

[Darox]

Considering the difference between a win and a loss is an essentially meaningless number which only gets recorded if you choose to record it, and the way you played throughout the game is more important, I say Gurgi should have the win.