Last Will Mafia II (Over)
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Hai guise, I haven't read even a single post of this thread yet. I'm going to get right on that and probably post my thoughts as I go along, but it may take some time and I hope you guys will be patient with me. This is a LOT of pages. e_e
If there's anything I ought to keep in mind while reading through the thread, or anything super important I ought to pay attention to, go ahead and let me know. I'll check back at the recent posts periodically.-
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Up to page ten:
I've got gut town vibes from Pittbunny.
Raider post 103 is scummy. Continuing random voting for the whole game? Meh.
SSBF is town.
Pittbunny still town.
QFT.EGL wrote:I'd still like to know what kmd saw on page 3 for a scum read on Twomz and Nacho.
Raider votes a non-contributor. Nice, easy way for a scum to avoid taking a real stance. Not looking good for raider so far.
Reverse Simplicity's statement
gives me gut-scum vibes. I see raider is on the right side of this lynch, but for the wrong reason.Be back later with a better vote/reason
Disagree.KMD wrote:Richard's posts about Millar are scummy.
Agree. Huzzah!KMD wrote:Raider might be scum.
Pretty much agree exactly with Diacria's townlist at the top of page 10 right now. There are a few people on that list I'm null on, but no one on that list I find scummy. (EGL, Xite. KMD is null-leaning-slight-town.)
Richard's overreaction is null imo. I've known people prone to overreacting as either alignment when being voted with insufficient reasoning (*cough*me*cough*). If Richard flips town, I want to look at KMD and Amished, but right now I don't think this really reflects either way on either of them other than the fact that I disagree with their votes.
Aaaand that's it for the first 10 pages. Moar later.-
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Just got done with 6-day work week. Brain too fried to read right now; catching up moar tomorrow.-
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Augh. Trying to catch up is making my eyes bleed.;_;
Would someone be kind and summarize the cases on Richard and SSBF so I know what I'm looking for as I catch up? I'm currently up to page 17. SSBF reads as town and Richard as null-leaning-scum to me, but obviously I'm missing 40+ pages of info. <_<-
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Catch up status: Page 26.
Have to stop now due to working soon (augh). expect Day 1 bandwagon analysis/isos (aka actual goodposting) when I catch up to the end of day 1.
Mod: Is there a possibility we could receive a deadline extension?-
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1,) It's a pokemon.esuriospiritus, tell me more about your avatar. Also, how can you not be up to date?
2.) I'm busy a LOT, terrible leeched internet connection, shared computer, made the mistake of replacing into two games at once when brain can only handle so much mafia at a time. Pick a reason, any reason. Not a lot of people would be willing to replace into a game that had 59 pages when I came in to it (and I think I see why now e_e), and I resent that you expect me to catch up on YOUR timetable, not mine. I'll catch up when I catch up, and that's all there is to it, thankyouverymuch.
fwiw I've had the time to catch up faster the past few days. I just reached the end of day 1/start of day 2 (page 30). Here are my reads as they stand at the moment (names are people playing at the end of day 1, not the people who replaced them later where that applies):
Probscum:
Raider-slot - the way the bandwagon built up so quickly on SV makes me think scum had a vested interest in keeping one of the other wagons from going through. Raider is the one I was most suspicious of for the majority of my readthrough of day 1, so he goes on the top here. I also don't like the way his wagon was so slow to build and then collapsed the moment a "better" target was introduced.
Richard - same main reason as above (and obviously, the fact that many people completely caught up on the game think he is scum).
CSL - same as above. There is no doubt in my mind that one of these three people is scum. Looking at the deaths and the time CSL's return to the game was announced, it is plausible to me that CSL wanted to leave and was convinced otherwise by his teammates (who then killed millar night two? I haven't gone to day 2 end to see if there was information on how twomz/millar were killed, so this could be way off). Obviously this is only a theory, but it makes sense to me. The intentional non-helpfulness isn't good, either.
Chronopie - lol active lurkers. Rhinox nailed this guy in his iso read. Don't like the "intent-to-hammer SV" post, it just reads to me like "hey look, I'm not lurking! Here, let me announce my intent to hammer a townie." e_e
<rest of lurker list goes here, or null at best. As long as lurkers aren't getting killed, lurking is a lucrative scum tactic. Hint hint, town killing powers.>
Null:
<anyone else.>
Probtown:
Pittbunny - My gut has told me Pittbunny is town for the duration of my read, and I haven't seen anything to contradict that. Could be confirmation bias, but I'm pretty sure on this.
Amished - didn't post a lot, but got good vibes from what was posted.
KMD - Ditto Amished. Would like to see both of these people post moar.
Xite - newbtown vibes all over the place.
Obvtown:
Rhinox - seems like the only guy who bothered to actively scumhunt (other than Diacria, who died).
SSBF - familiar enough with his meta to be fairly certain of his towniness. I do not approve of his current wagon (though I don't know the story of why the leading wagons are on Richard/SSBF, either).-
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I am reading in order for a reason, so if the case wasn't made day one or after I replaced in, then no. (Hey, that means I only have 29 pages left if you count the pages that happened after I replaced in. Whoo hoo!)@euso, did you read any of the cases on any of the players?
@Ani: tbh I considered doing that briefly, at about page 10 of my readthrough. <_< It's not so bad though, it's just time consuming. And the consuming of time is the entire reason I replaced in in the first place, so.... yeah.-
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Currently caught up to page 34.
Bandwagon analysis time!
At this point in day one, the lynch could have been anyone. Three of these people are dead and flipped town, which means:vote count, a few RL days before the end of day 1 wrote:raider8169 (5)
CSL (5)
RichardGHP (5)
Shattered Viewpoint (4)
1.) Raider/Plum slot is scum
-OR-
2.) Everyone being bandwagoned here is town, and scum were sitting back and laughing, in which case there is scum in this group of people:
Cross-referencing this list with the final SV wagon, which I am relatively certain was scum-driven, we have... Ythan, SSBF, and animorpherv1.
Now, again, I'm not fully caught up still, but to me it still seems more likely that raider/Plum is scum than Ythan/SSBF/ani are scum. I still advocate a Raider-slot lynch barring fantabulous play from Plum when I get caught up to whatever point she replaces in at. If raider-slot is town, out of those three people I'd be most suspicious of Ani for his late placement on the SV wagon (followed by SSBF, for having major text walls pushing the SV wagon). Out of the more general list of people who were lurking near the end of Day 1, Nachomamma is naturally the most suspicious for not posting AT ALL during that time and not having the excuse of a pending replacement.Shattered Viewpoint (12) -Ythan,EGL,Magua,Super Smash Bros. Fan, Amished, Charlie, kmd4390, holycon,towmz,animorpherv1, pittbunny,millar13
For those of you whoarecaught up all the way, I figured I'd post this to see if you make anything different out of it than I do.-
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EBWOP: Durr hurr, forgot to vote:
Vote: Plum
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I don't see the relevance. If scum was aware that there was no risk of one of them getting lynched, wouldn't at least some of them see fit to sit back and lurk to the end of the day, regardless of whether or not they have daytalk? I would bet my avatar (since that seems to be the popular thing to do) on there being two scum in the more general list, maybe even three, if Plum is town. I'd bet the same regarding the SV wagon, regardless of Plum's alignment. In that case, it makes sense to cross-reference the two and see where the lists intersect, no?I do't think that amount of posts is going to be a good indicator, consider in last Last Will Game, scum didn't have daytalk.
The analysis is far less relevant if Plum is scum, but I wanted to cover all bases since I'm not caught up yet and am not yet equipped to make a final judgement on anyone.
You're refuting the semantics of one sentence rather than the post in general? What do you think about the rest of what I posted?Furthermore, my attack on Shattered Viewpoint when I was voting him were not "major wall of texts". Were they decently-sized, yes, but not major wall of texts.
As for how it's scummy: You supported a townie wagon (null on its own without context), but more importantly you spent a lot oftime and energysupporting it relative to some. Now that I think about it in this light, it's probably more of a point against you if Plum flips scum -- scum!SSBF would have more of a motivation to push an SV lynch than town!SSBF would. Hmm.-
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Hey, Plum. Greatly anticipating your response to and thoughts regarding this post.
As my sig indicates, I'm LA right now, so while I'm keeping up with new posts I haven't really caught up any more. e_e-
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Whoo! I called in to work today and am... mostly caught up. I skimmed a lot of the longer posts, and I only sort of re-read anything that happened in between when I replaced in and when I actually started paying attention to what was going on in the present state of the game, buuuuuut I've gotten all the meatiest parts I think, so yay. More thorough reading to come later I hope.
If I can get not-busy and not-lazy (an uncommon combination) I will do a vote analysis of days 2/3. I don't feel like either of them will be as fruitful as day 1.
@SSBF, is there a reason you've pressured Plum to be fully caught up but haven't said anything to me about takingAlso Plum, you should have been caught up by now. You admitted to be struggling a lot, which looks like you haven't caught up yet. If you haven't caught up, did you attempt to catch up during the Night? If not, why not?mysweet ass time catching up? Just curious.
@Nacho: What do you think of the Plum/raider slot? What do you think of my day 1 vote analysis, and stated suspicion of you? (While I'm at it, what do you think of my suspicion of Ani?)-
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@Battousai: Copy img location > paste in address bar of new tab works quite nicely. You really need to split the window though before screencapping so we can see the top row in every picture.
I am no longer LA. Hooray! Expect a real post sometime in the next 6 hours; going to be doing some re-reading intermittent with chores and stuff. e_e-
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I don't think theory #2 necessarily has to mean there were not scum on the SV wagon. Any group of -- what was the consensus? 5-8 people? -- is probably going to have diverse enough meta types that at least one scum is guaranteed to be on the wagon either way, imo. The list of non-posters is much more conditional on one of the theories being true (#2, in which scum were sitting back and laughing) than the list of people on the SV wagon. I will agree with you that the latter should get aRhinox wrote:Esurio already did the work, but interpretted it incorrectly IMO. If the SV wagon was scum driven, it supports theory #1 above. If theory #2 is assumed, then there is no reason to believe the SV wagon was scum driven.lotmore weight on it if theory #1 is true than if #2 is, but I don't think the SV wagon is likely to be made up of all town either way.
Living people on all 3 wagons: no one
Living people on 2 wagons: Ythan, Magua/esurio, Super Smash Bros. Fan, Charlie, kmd4390, holycon, Pittbunny/Battousai, nachomamma8, jahudo, rhinox
Living people on 1 wagon (CAUTIOUS SCUM GOES HERE GUISE): Amished, animorpherv1, Locke Lamora, Chronopie
Living people on 0 wagons (CAUTIOUS SCUM GOES HERE GUISE): raider/plum, xite91
Now, I'm pretty damn certain Xite is town, so let's disregard her. (She doesn't pop up in either of my other "SCUM IS LIKELY IN THIS GROUP OF PEOPLE" lists, either.) Other than that, I see some familiar faces... Raider/Plum, Animorpherv1, Chronopie, and Locke Lamora are all at least in one other list (mind that Locke was in the "people who didn't post at the end of day 1" list because his slot was in the process of being replaced. null lol.) Chronopie is an anti-town lurker who should probably get vigged, that's nothing new. Amished I need to read in iso still, but I remember thinking he was town while trying to catch up. Raider/Plum remains my top scumspect, so the slot's presence here doesn't really surprise me. Animorpherv1's was also on the list of people that didn't post end of day 1, and despite a quick iso of him revealing him to be light on scumhunting and content in general, I still think raider/plum is an actively scummier slot.
Next post I intend to PBPA raider/plum. MOAR PLUM VOTES PLZ.-
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@KMD: Rhinox and Pitt both gave me strong gut town vibes in the early game. I'm slightly more ambivalent about Battousai but until he does something obv scummy I am sticking with my early gut read. Interestingly this gives me much more reason to be suspicious of Locke if otherwise your scumset brackets are correct, since he's in one with Rhinox and another with both myself and Rhinox. That is a really big 'if' though, because you took people out of the brackets you felt were obvtownbeforedoing the final analysis. I'm sure you're not right about people 100% of the time, even when you think someone dropped a really good tell, so removing those people beforehand kind of damages the integrity of the analysis imo. :/ I mean, if someone just happens to be awesome at fooling you, you're ignoring the kind of empirical evidence that would cause you to open your eyes.
Also, interested in knowing who you think is scum if Rhinox is town.
@Xite: Have you read Raider/Plum and SSBF in back-to-back iso together? You said you were suspicious of both of them. Do you think they make more sense as part of a scumteam together, or do you think one is probably town if the other is scum?
My scum brackets so far, all in one place for ease of reference later:
[animorpherv1, chronopie, Jahudo, Locke Lamora, Nachomamma8, SSBF, Ythan](people who were lurkerish end of day 1 - STRONG bracket if Raider/Plum flips town, somewhat weaker bracket otherwise)
[Ythan, SSBF, Amished, Charlie, kmd4390, holycon, animorpherv1, Battousai](people who were on SV wagon - STRONG bracket if Raider/Plum flips scum, somewhat weaker bracket otherwise)
[Amished, animorpherv1, Locke Lamora, Chronopie, Plum, Xite91](People who have avoided being on lynch wagons - STRONG bracket regardless, more weight on anyone with meta of being cautious as scum)
I'm sick right now (got a new cat, allergies are hell, etc) so I don't feel like doing that PBPA I promised. Mehhh.-
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Plum PBPA tomorrow probably -- I have the day off. (And I have to stop putting off doing actualworkfor this game, augh.)
This sentence rubs me the wrong way. I can't really put my finger on why, exactly, other than it seems like he's too preoccupied with what other people think of him. I may be reading a Charlie iso soon.Charlie wrote:However you don't really have to worry about getting any flak from me because you're a semi-sheeped suspect and I know that sheeping all the time isn't a good thing.
Do I see a scumslip? I think I do.Amished wrote:The only reason I suspected that you were just a VI there instead ofmy opposing scum factionwas because I thought I had the other ones pegged.
unvote; vote: Amished
What say ye?-
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Plum wrote:Again, it really doesn't indicate anything unless there are two scum factions
?Amished wrote:myopposing scum faction-
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Just because he is on one scum team doesn't necessarily mean he would know about another one existing or not existing for certain. He could be scum notknowingwhether or not there's another scumteam, but searching for scummy people, anyway. That's how I read it, anyway.
but mostly i just don't want to admit plum is probably right, because I want to think I've got caught scum, here.
And there are certainly enough not-particularly-protown people in this game. e_e
PEDIT: What ythan said.-
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It's called a scum SLIP for a reason, yo.
dammit, ninja'd by Xite. post is @ holycon.-
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Why me? (You...Xite91 wrote:But Eh, choice is up to youweretalking to me, right?)
And meh, I'm still more convinced Plum is scum than Ani, SSBF, Ythan are scum. And if one of those three has to be lynched, I rather it be ani. less of a pro-town game (plus my predecessor had a vote on him at some point or other, which is almost like getting a free second opinion from someone I know is town. )
@Holy: is there a... reason you've gone from defending Amished to voting for him in the span of... eight minutes?-
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whut?
...
...
...
Amished wrote:
And your point? The only reason I suspected that you were just a VICharlie wrote:
Make content, make content, make content. Is that all you want from me? I'm not the best content-maker; this I know and accept. Many times I've been told that I've put my foot in my mouth and many times I've gotten lynched (as either alignment, really). Can't you just accept that I fair better when I'm at the sidelines, saying stuff? For the record, Amished, I'm doing the exact same thing here as I did inAmished wrote:@Charlie: Voting for somebody you don't suspect? How is that useful? Make content or die, bickering with Ythan giving him a chance to continue being "active" without saying anything is less than productive.L4D Mafia. You of all people should understand this, but nope. Your unyielding attitude is not impressive, IMHO.thereinstead of my opposing scum faction was because I thought I had the other ones pegged. One game does not a meta make and content is how I get reads on people. If you'd pay attention you'd know I could probably rattle off 5-6 people that would not mind lynching you for your *non* participation. "I don't want to get lynched" definitely does not help your case and I'm considering switching over to you even with obv-scum SSBF over here.
...
...Oh.
Goddamnit, Iknewsomething didn't make sense about that 'there' being there. Actually reading quote pyramids on occasion would help, guh.
unvote; vote: Plum
Back to the drawing board. ._.-
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Ugh, I forgot deadline was so close.
I'll be hopping on the ani wagon if the plum wagon continues to not go anywhere. I still think SSBF is town. :/
This is exactly why I'd be voting ani over ythan, despite both of their plays being decidedly unhelpful for the most part.Nacho wrote:There are FAR better things that scum could do with the one-shot than using it in a protown manner...-
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You kidding me? She said herself that she always views scumslips as null tells. So either I think she's lying about that, and she gets scum points, or I think she's telling the truth, and it's null because she'd do it as either alignment. Not all of us are as certain of her town-status as you are. :<-
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Gah. No offense, Chrono, but a lurker being the only one to jump on the Plum wagon doesn't exactly instil great hope in me that it's the right wagon. And I totally disagree with you that her reaction to Amished's "slip" is scummy; it is null unless Amished flips scum, in which case it's a possible scum defense, evenwiththe meta defense. Really, if anything, Holy was the only one to gain scum points out of the whole thing imo.
unvote
I need to think.-
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I third that sentiment, but I don't really see it as incriminating, either. Not reading closely isn't a scumtell, at least not under most circumstances. I can tell you, if I thought my lynch was inevitable in a game and I knew my claim wouldn't save me (ie a VT role), I probably wouldn't be reading that thread very carefully, either.Xite91 wrote:
Considering how many posts there were about it, I agreeYthan wrote:Looking at some of Fan's points, particularly the one about Ed's "slip", makes me think he isn't reading very closely. I made the mistake at first, but now that we've all gone over the mistake I think it's pretty obvious.
Meta and gut tells me SSBF is probably town.
SSBF, to the best of my recollection Xite was one of the first major advocates of your lynch. Would you mind elaborating what you think of her?-
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Ohai. Sorry I'm late to the party, I kind of forgot about this game. <_<;
I really wouldn't mind seeing any of the ani/chrono/Plum trio hang. I formed a hunch overnight that Chrono and Plum are scum together anyway (in hindsight I think Chrono's vote on Plum might have been an attempt at distancing) and I don't see anything that indicates that ani couldn't be scum with them as well (although to be fair it's hard to gleananythingfrom ani's iso, much less something as specific as possible scumbuddies). I'd still like to see plum hang the most (the extra information from day one would be some really good icing on that scummy cake) especially as long as she continues to not particularly do anything, but really, I don't think we can go wrong lynching any of these three people.
vote: Fishy
WAGON VOTE THAT MIGHT ACTUALLY GO SOMEWHERE THIS TIME GO GO GO. Totes okay with switching if one of my other picks picks up steam though.
holycon wrote:there are constantly 4 people at the top of every townie lynch
you [locke]
bat
rhinox
yathan
doesn't that stick anyone else as weirdOther people already touched on the fact that this isn't quite true. But even if it were, I'd expect scum to be most carefulCrap, just noticed Battousai beat me to this.notto be on every single lynch (thus why one of my bracketed scumgroups is the list of people whohaven'tbeen on lynches).
Looking forward to seeing the rest of KMD's death analysis thing.-
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Pretty much waiting on one of fish/chrono/plum to say something. More people need their votes on one of these three people.
unvote
vote: plum
Fuck yeah, Plum wagon.
Jahudo, I don't disagree with you about Chrono, but I do wonder what makes you think chrono wagon is > plum wagon when Raider, imo, did a good bit more scummy shit and Plum has done little or nothing to redeem the slot since replacing in. They are both scummy, though, and I think a distancing scenario is much more likely than the scenario you put forward. Do you think Plum is town?-
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skim re-reading from the start of day 5, huzzah.
Charlie has risen significantly on my scumlist -- his play all day has basically been "guise, lynch fish!" and I see scum motivation in his push for others to vote fish before he'd even had a chance to catch up and say anything that might redeem the slot. I am fairly certain that one of Charlie/Fish is scum (both highly unlikely) -- if fish is town Charlie had significant scum motivation to try to push a mislynch through before the replacement could do anything to make the slot a harder mislynch (like, say, actually post useful shit). If Fish is scum then I somehow doubt Charlie would be continuing to bus his buddy today knowing, again, the slot has a chance of redeeming itself with the replacement and all. Them both being town together, while admittedly more of a possibility than them both being scum together, makes much less cohesive sense to me than the situations of Charlie being scum, which is what I'm currently betting on.
So, right now, top three has changed to [Plum, Chrono, Charlie] and back to Fish if Charlie should flip town.
I was, but then I unvoted her/voted other people and didn't see the point, and by the time my vote was back on her I'd forgotten I'd even said I was going to do this. XD I was planning on doing a PBPA mostly to convince other people, but to be frank if I can convince people without doing the extra work... I'm lazy and don't see the point in going to the extra trouble.@esurio: Were you going to get to this sometime? I don’t know if you have any specific tells on Plum or if its all about raider.
I don't have any specific tells on Plum, but my read on raider is pretty strong and I don't feel she's really done anything to change that read. She just kind of feels like she's coasting to me. Something about her meta here also seems different than what I remember seeing of her town play in other games (although I haven't read anything of her recently so that's not something I would base a case off of if that was my only reason). And PoE of the people I think are town doesn't leave much room for the possibility of anyone not on that list being town... TBQH I'd be okay with lynching pretty much anyone who's not myself, KMD, Battousai, Rhinox or Jahudo, and if we assume a six or seven person scumteam I think it's pretty likely we'll hit scum out of the nine people remaining, but there are still some lynches I vastly prefer over others.
Goodposting is good.Jahudo wrote:Batt revising a line from his post doesn't mean anything to me. The line was already there in the first post, so its not like he was trying to hide something that he thought would make him look bad. And I've seen those "That's because you are scum!" lines all the time. Means nothing. Plum and KMD are overreacting.
PEDIT:Fuck, I'm sorry, Amished. Hug in a box for you if you want it.
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@Batt:
I don't really think a Plum flip would influence me on KMD either way. I think he'd know better than to so blatantly defend his scumbuddy if Plum is scum, so if Plum flips scum I don't see that influencing his alignment at all (it just makes him wrong). If Plum flips town, I'd be a little wary of how hard he has defended Plum (relative to anyone else), but he still wouldn't be my top suspect.-
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Ohai. Guess who's still scum.
Vote: Plum
Can't really muster up a crap about this game right now; too busy working on writing mini theme flavour etc.
Real post tomorrow, maybe.
Agree with whoever said we shouldn't just policy lynch whoever a scum vote goes to, but ehhhhh. Didn't like Ythan much to begin with; like him even less now with like 6 votes on a meh player. Seems fishy. If he is town though maybe scum will feel forced to kill him to try to get the votes passed to scum. Should leave him alive for at least today to see what happens. Ythan should definitely make sure his will is updated, at any rate.-
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@Battousai:
I'd be willing to lynch KMD if/when Plum flips scum. I'm inclined to think KMD is town if Plum is.
Fishy is town, Jahudo is town, Battousai is probtown, Rhinox is probtown. Plum is scum, and Charlie and Ythan are probscum, I'm willing to trust KMD about Holy if he's town but ignoring his mysterious town tell on her she's pretty scummy, and I'm on the fence about everyone else.
This game is going excruciatingly slowly. ._.-
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Fun Fact: This got written in three different sittings because I keep getting interrupted by shit. >:( I blame any incoherency on that.
Esurio (post 2378), you're going to have to explain those reads because I disagree with most.
Fishy - KMD brings up a good point about Fishy not being confirmed town just 'cause of the inventor item, but Occam's Razor dictates he's probably telling the truth and I still am not willing to lynch him today. Plus he's one of those people I get a vibe about that he'd be pretty transparent if he were scum. I've never played with him before so I could be totally off but there are some people I've played with who I consider really easy to read and he reads like they do to me. Also, see Charlie read.Fishy is town, Jahudo is town, Battousai is probtown, Rhinox is probtown. Plum is scum, and Charlie and Ythan are probscum, I'm willing to trust KMD about Holy if he's town but ignoring his mysterious town tell on her she's pretty scummy, and I'm on the fence about everyone else.
Jahudo - Just plain obvtown. I have yet to see something from him that raises a red flag for me. Period. (If I'm wrong, I'm pulling a Charlie and blaming the red panda. <.<)
Battousai - Pittbunny dropped something I consider a towntell really early on; I don't remember what it was exactly but if I recall correctly it was something like he made a post early on that I felt put him in the spotlight way more than a scumbag would be comfortable with. I haven't seen anything to convince me to disregard that towntell since, although he's said a few things I disagree with (which isn't a scumtell, but yeah).
Rhinox - Really strong posts D1. I felt like he gave a little coherency to town early on when everyone else was still kind of bouncing off the walls, whereas I would expect scum to take advantage of the chaos more and lay back a little. Like Battousai, hasn't said or done anything to make me really question that read since.
Plum - Raider's ISO speaks for itself. Plum I feel really hasn't been making much of an effort to scumhunt; when she posts it just feels to me like she doesn't care very much. Plus there's the Chrono-Plum connection. Their wagons were so close, scum definitely had the option of swaying the lynch to whomever. If there are scum that were on his wagon, that means either a.) Plum is a scum role they think they needed more than an extra kill or b.) Plum is town and Chrono already used his kill so scum felt free to bus him for town points c.) we have a really stupid scumteam on our hands, which considering we only have one of them dead to nine town, I don't think is the case.
Charlie -
Ythan - lurking galore and a relative lack of scumhunting, especially earlier on. Plus Chronopie handed off two votes to him, which doesn't help. Also, he pops up twice in my scumbrackets from earlier (I should probably update those. Hmm...)esurio iso 28 wrote:Charlie has risen significantly on my scumlist -- his play all day has basically been "guise, lynch fish!" and I see scum motivation in his push for others to vote fish before he'd even had a chance to catch up and say anything that might redeem the slot. I am fairly certain that one of Charlie/Fish is scum (both highly unlikely) -- if fish is town Charlie had significant scum motivation to try to push a mislynch through before the replacement could do anything to make the slot a harder mislynch (like, say, actually post useful shit). If Fish is scum then I somehow doubt Charlie would be continuing to bus his buddy today knowing, again, the slot has a chance of redeeming itself with the replacement and all. Them both being town together, while admittedly more of a possibility than them both being scum together, makes much less cohesive sense to me than the situations of Charlie being scum, which is what I'm currently betting on.
Holy - mostly her rapid change in stance on Amished, and relative lack of scumhunting.-
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You're right. That should be:Ythan wrote:Esurio, two things. One, explain how I'm lurking. Two, explain how you're not full of IoA. If you're trying to make a point then make it instead of waiting for someone else to based on your post so you don't stand out.
I guess I didn't editactivelurking galore and a relative lack of scumhunting
Oh, you've been here all right. Hell, your iso has ten pages. But a lot of your posts don't havesubstanceto them. In the majority of your posts you have limited yourself to one sentence or one question that may or may not actually have anything to do with looking for scum (hint: a lot of the posts are snarky remarks to people, or a question about their posts, but hardly ever do you put your own opinion out there any more transparently than "hey something's up with this person, I am going to ask them a question about their post"). You tried to ride the wave of your 'obv-town-ness' after millar was killed until everyone else made it clear that wasn't going to fly. Thefirststring of actual useful posts you make as far as getting a good read on your thoughts on the other players comes on page 6 of your iso. You improve on your fluff-to-substance ratio later on, but the early posts are indicative of scum not wanting to make their "stances" on the majority of players clear and obvious.
Does town have any motivation for posting lots but keeping reads on other players under wraps? No.
Does scum? You bet.
o_O How about you explain how ITwo, explain how you're not full of IoA.am, and then I'll beat your inevitable word-twisting and misrep into a bloody pulp.
I wasn't, I was just answering KMD's question about my reads.If you're trying to make a point then make it
Could you elaborate on this? I've read this sentence like ten times and Iinstead of waiting for someone else to based on your post so you don't stand out.stilldon't know what you're trying to say. "If you're trying to make a point, then make it."-
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Well, that's not much of a choice. Do I get a third option?You're just lying/dumb.-
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I'm up for a massclaim. I'm a little paranoid about my reads after Plum's flip. I plan to re-read her at some point and see if I can glean any new insights, but this isn't the only game I'm in (lol alts) and I'm starting to suffer pretty bad mafia burnout due to [redacted ongoing talk here] so it might not be for a day or two.
In any case if we're going to mass-claim we ought to start soon, so we have more time to discuss the results.-
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I don't think I'd be willing to lynch KMD as the game stands now. There are too many scummier people.
(PS: I'm V/LA until the 1st for the holiday.)-
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You're half-right, I guess. I still think Charlie's overt uselessness (plus the fishy thing) is scummy as hell still; that hasn't changed. (Also, Jahudo is pretty much confirmed town, but that kinda goes without saying). I'm also still distrustful of Ythan... but until get around to re-reading Plum, I don't want to give the impression I'm sure about anyone, least of all KMD, who probably had the most connections to Plum. I have the gut feeling he's town, but I've been reading the game this whole time with the assumption that Plum was scum, so now I have to go back and see if there's anything I've missed, do vote analysis again, etc etc and I just don't have the time or the energy for it lately. x_x
Are you asking Ythan what he thinks about Batt, or asking me what I think about Batt and Ythan? Your wording was a little ambiguous.What do you think about Batt, Ythan?-
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Llamafluff, did you miss my statement that I was V/LA till the 1st for Halloween? :/ It hasn't been long enough since then to warrant a prod, I think.
Real post tomorrow. Focusing on getting my mini theme up and running tonight.-
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TOWN:
esuriospiritus
rhinox
Jahudo
PROBTOWN:
kmd4390
Battousai
nachomamma8
NULL:
kunkstar7
Locke Lamora
PROBSCUM:
holycon
SCUM:
Charlie
Ythan
Charlie is a useless fluff-poster and I can't believe he's lived this long.
I can't possibly see why scum would have let Ythan stay alive if he's town. If Ythan were town, I'd expect scum to have shot him already, and to just keep shooting until those votes were in their hands. From the whole Fishy thing we can assume they really want Jahudo dead, but votewise he's not nearly as much of a threat. Plus, active lurking is scummy as shit, and he's done a fair bit of that throughout the game (though not nearly as much as Charlie).
The only thing that's protected holycon from getting lynched in my view is KMD's mysterious towntell. Someone (I forget who, lawl, but I think it was Rhinox) said something about her posting a lot in other games compared to here. That's hella suspicious imo.
Locke and Kunk I really have no fucking clue on. I'd say maybe I need to re-read them, but given process of elimination I think at least one of them is probably scum, if not both.
I had a pretty strong town read on KMD earlier in the game. I'm not as sure about him as I am about rhinox and Jahudo (and myself), though, and the ratio of scum:town has me wanting to limit who I stick in my TOTALLYOBVTOWN box. And, I'm kind of spooked by him being the only one to vigilantly defend Plum (because that's totally the sort of thing I would do as scum.) Still, out of the 'probtown' people, I feel best about KMD.
I had a towntell on Pittbunny early on in the game that I've since forgotten (I think it had something to do with Pitt shoving himself into the spotlight willingly in the early, early game), and I confess I have been reading Batt at face value rather than reading for motivations ever since. I still think he is probably town, but considering the people I think are town seem to mostly disagree with me... I am unsure. :/
Nacho I've been pretty null on until recently. I think he's had some goodposting lately, but it's not good enough for me to suddenly call him obvtown. He's still on the border of probtown and null.
I think somebody asked me a question earlier that this doesn't answer, but it's going to have to wait. I've got to go to work. D:-
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Ugh. Full-scale mafia apathy. Very very tempted to replace out, but I wouldn't wish 107 pages of reading on my worst enemy, soooo.... yeah.
This pretty much nails why I am not unvoting Charlie.I'm more receptive to having my mind changed now that's Charlie's claimed; I doubt that there's another protective role after a CPR Doc claim only counterclaimed by scum, a one-shot doctor protect, and a bodyguard flip.
Kunkstar replaced in like 5 weeks after me -- not 'around the same time' by any stretch of the imagination. I also wouldn't exactly say he came into the game strong, nor do I think it's fair to say I immediately started lurking after replacing in. (Kunkstar, on the other hand, has a grand total of 9 posts since replacing in at the end of September, and one of those is nothing but a V/LA notification post.) I think you're trying to magick a connection where there isn't one, but considering having to check your facts for you gave me the motivation I needed to actually re-read someone... maybe that was a good thing overall.kunkstar/esurio - These are both replacements that came in the game strong, then immediately began lurking to victory. They both replaced in around the same time, and they've been voting together for the entire time since Amished was replaced.
Kunk's lurking is pretty alarming upon re-read, and I would go so far as to say that bumps him from null into my probscum list. Still haven't re-read my other null read (Locke) and to be frank I'm probably not going to, nor is it likely I'm going to have the attention span to read anyone's textwalls for the remainder of the game. So purty please, keep things short, sweet, and to the point. After 100+ pages, we don't need any more textwalls.-
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I have something to say, and I have it saved in a draft already, but at the last moment it occurred to me that it would probably be best to hear more from Ythan about his role before I say anything that would give him any ideas if fakeclaiming.-
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Damn, just about everything got covered in my drafted post I was talking about earlier. But meh, here it is anyway if you're interested.
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Funny, I thought he was genuine. This comment says more about your desperation to get Batt lynched than it does about him, I think.If there was only one scum, I'd agree with your fancy "OMG CAPS LOOK AT ME I MUST BE TOWN CUZ I CARE THIIIIIISSSSS MUCH".
I really don't understand the Batt!scum crusaders.-
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I really didn't think it did, but ok.Rhinox wrote:ESURIO!
This needs a response.Rhinox wrote:
so.... how is a body guard a protective role and this isn't?esurio wrote:PEDIT: A lightning rod ability would just get him killed, so it's less of a protective role and more of a redirection. Mafia would still get to probably kill someone and end up one step closer to winning.
I think thats a slip.
I borrowed someone else's words without bothering to clarify my own specific opinion. Had I cared enough at the time to rehash in my own words what Nacho had said, maybe I would have pointed out that bodyguards don't really 'protect' in the same sense a doctor or commuter does. Maybe. Although it really wouldn't have changed anything. Even if you ignore the "bodyguard" portion, you have to admit the CPR Doc fakeclaim and one-shot doctor protect is more than enough protection to be wary of a commuter claim especially in a game that doesn't seem to be particularly heavy on the power roles.esuriospiritus wrote:Ugh. Full-scale mafia apathy. Very very tempted to replace out, but I wouldn't wish 107 pages of reading on my worst enemy, soooo.... yeah.
ThisI'm more receptive to having my mind changed now that's Charlie's claimed; I doubt that there's another protective role after a CPR Doc claim only counterclaimed by scum, a one-shot doctor protect, and a bodyguard flip.pretty muchnails why I am not unvoting Charlie.-
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Why?Nachomamma8 wrote:I would rather hold a Batt lynch until we see a Ythan flip.
I agree with you, but I want to know what your logic is.-
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Also, holy, do you have any response to Kunk's vote on you, or are you just going to ignore it?-
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Now, I don't care whether you think Batt is scum or not, you have to admit the man has a point.The fact that kunk did not use his ability on holy, who he was "trying to get lynched" seems to me to say that Kunk is scum.
/unabashed logic piggybacking
Vote: Kunk-
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It's interesting that all these people are still alive, but I still wouldn't lynch Batt or Rhinox without a damn convincing case. (Also, Rhinox and Locke can't be scum together, because they would have won already if they were.)If Smash Bras is town, Rhinox, Batt, and Locke are the most likely scum.
Locke and Holy look worst to me out of the people still alive. Knowing KMD is town makes me particularly squeamish about taking holy to her grave what with his read on her and all, but then again I didn't or don't really agree with a lot of his reads, so what's one more?
Okay with either of those lynches.-
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Hmm, I don't know, maybe I haven't explained because I couldn't be bothered to glance at the thread yet!Nachomamma8 wrote:Es, you still haven't explained why you piggybacked off Batt's terrible reasoning.
Locke is town. You should know this. After kunk DK'd kmd, locke had 11 votes. Plus kunk, 12 votes. Meaning that he would've only needed one more member to win. In other words, if you believe that he is scum, you only think that there's one scum member left. Meaning that you should be putting a bit more effort in your Locke read.
To be frank, the fact that I have complete and utter Mafia apathy (mafia in general, not just this game) pretty much explains my actions (or more likely, lack thereof) for the past 2 months or so. Only reason I haven't replaced out is because I don't think anyone in their right mind would replace in to a 100+ page game that didn't revolve around a chess mechanic more than it did mafia.
You raise a good point about Locke, and I find it hard to believe there is only one scum left. Two, maybe, but not one. Early reads die hard though, lolz.
Batt and especially Rhinox (and I suppose now Locke) are on my no-lynch list, mostly due to early read awesomeness. Nacho's edged closer to being on that list over the last few game days but the early game apathy still has me feeling kinda meh about him (plus, there has to be at least two scum, right?) That leaves... holy. Process of elimination, eh?
vote: holy
If we lynch holy and she flips town I suppose I'd have to re-evaluate one of my uber-town reads to keep with the 2-scum theory, in which case I'd probably be swayed by the overwhelming game opinion that's been saying Batt is scum for ages now sooner than I'd lynch Rhinox, who I felt most kicked town into gear in the early game. But meh.-
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Nope. Not trying to excuse my behaviour, just explain it. Big difference. 'Excuse' connotes being apologetic/having done something wrong, and I am offering no apology nor do I particularly feel that I've done anything wrong/scummy. (Blatantly and unabashedly half-assing my way through the last few game days isn't pro-anything except maybe pro-jester).
Simple process of elimination. Pretty much everyone else reads as townier than you to me, aside from the detail that you would have won already if you were scum.As far as I remember, you never upgraded me past null, so I'll ask again: why open today saying I'm one of the two scummiest? What gave you that read?-
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Deadline's in a week, guys. Just FYI.-
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esuriospiritus they/askI Reject Your Corporeality...they/ask
- I Reject Your Corporeality...
- I Reject Your Corporeality...
- Posts: 2100
- Joined: October 13, 2009
- Pronoun: they/ask
- Location: nether-nether land
@Locke: Definitely plausible, especially given the 2nd half of 2887.-
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esuriospiritus they/askI Reject Your Corporeality...they/ask
- I Reject Your Corporeality...
- I Reject Your Corporeality...
- Posts: 2100
- Joined: October 13, 2009
- Pronoun: they/ask
- Location: nether-nether land
Post post post~
@Locke: Sure,nowit makes sense that scum gave votes to Ythan to set him up for a mislynch, but at the time Occam's Razor dictated he was probably scum for his active lurking + scum votes.
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Holycon is a better lynch than Battousai. Just sayin'.-
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esuriospiritus they/askI Reject Your Corporeality...they/ask
- I Reject Your Corporeality...
- I Reject Your Corporeality...
- Posts: 2100
- Joined: October 13, 2009
- Pronoun: they/ask
- Location: nether-nether land
OGAWD FINALLY.
esuriospiritus wrote:Nope. Not trying to excuse my behaviour, just explain it. Big difference. 'Excuse' connotes being apologetic/having done something wrong, and I am offering no apology nor do I particularly feel that I've done anything wrong/scummy. (Blatantly and unabashedly half-assing my way through the last few game days isn't pro-anything except maybe pro-jester).
This was 110% genuine, btw. I need a nice long break from mafia for a while. e_eUgh. Full-scale mafia apathy. Very very tempted to replace out, but I wouldn't wish 107 pages of reading on my worst enemy, soooo.... yeah.
No objection to the QT being posted.-
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esuriospiritus they/askI Reject Your Corporeality...they/ask
- I Reject Your Corporeality...
- I Reject Your Corporeality...
- Posts: 2100
- Joined: October 13, 2009
- Pronoun: they/ask
- Location: nether-nether land
The first post I made about it was actually genuinely thinking he made a scumslip, cuz I was skimming things and not reading context. I realized my mistake shortly after posting, but at that point I'd realized it was better to milk it for all the potential town-points it was worth than backpedal immediately.
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