Objection Redux - It's all over bar the shouting!


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Post Post #62 (isolation #0) » Wed Nov 24, 2010 12:44 pm

Post by Jahudo »

vezokpiraka wrote:
unvote


Vi's wagon is falling apart.
Sounds like scum just realizing their vote is on someone who is really tough to lynch day 1. Better to jump ship early so its not so
awkward
when its still there in a few pages and conversations get serious.

There was no revote, your original conditions had not expired (VV still on the wagon, Fate still hadn't posted), and your unvote reason does not have any substance (no one else unvoted first).
So why did you do it?

Vote: vezokpiraka
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Post Post #147 (isolation #1) » Fri Nov 26, 2010 6:53 am

Post by Jahudo »

@M_O, is your reason for finding Rhinox scummy basically the same as Gamma?

I am also concerned that Rhino would write off Vi day 1, as I would not hesitate to vote/hammer either of them if they were looking scummy day 1. Even if he would that wouldn't stop him from joining a Vi wagon for the lulz. He asked for reasons Vi was being wagoned, that seems unusual that he would think there would be ones (and why not check yourself if you're not sure) if he's also already going to place a random vote of his own (so he assumes its still rvs).

------------
Fate on VV wrote:2. Why am I not a bad lynch? What THE FUCK? Town doesn't have this mindset, SCUM has this mindset and uses it to say "look how town I am I consider myself a viable option for teh rope!!!" SCUM
Good point. He shows defensiveness by asking for reasons from someone not voting him. That should only be necessary when someone has been voting you but never explaining why. It sounds like he's more interested in finding how to fix his own game than doing something to read Vi's alignment.

That said I still like my vezok vote better. He needs to explain his unvote. I'll look into more stuff tonight when I have time.
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Post Post #184 (isolation #2) » Sat Nov 27, 2010 8:46 am

Post by Jahudo »

What they said.
Jahudo wrote:There was no revote, your original conditions had not expired (VV still on the wagon, Fate still hadn't posted), and your unvote reason does not have any substance (no one else unvoted first).
So why did you do it?
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Post Post #229 (isolation #3) » Sun Nov 28, 2010 4:35 am

Post by Jahudo »

VV as VT does provide one possible explanation his early play that was more aggressive and reckless. Specifically his call that Fate is vig fodder, which always sounds like a taboo topic to talk about. I think if he was a PR he would have played more even-handed before he had any suspicion on him.

@VV: How would Fate-scum know if you are town-vanilla over town-pr? I don't know how that could even be a slip unless he was a Mafia Day Role Cop.

------------
vezok wrote:I unvoted Vi cause RVS was over. i saw a lot of people voting other persons and I thought that wagon fell apart. I as wrong.
True there were some people that voted VV in that time frame but that did not affect the Vi wagon. There was 1 vote change (that didn't affect Vi) between your unvote and a vote count listing Vi as the still-top wagon with 5 votes. If you weren't paying enough attention on page 2 to notice that, I now have trouble believing you are legitimately following the VV case. You have not given anything new to the wagon on your own. If VV is town, your vote is opportunistic. If VV is scum, you look like the obvious busser.

So I'd still rather lynch vezok today.
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Post Post #232 (isolation #4) » Sun Nov 28, 2010 5:04 am

Post by Jahudo »

Fate doesn't always mull over claims as town. I know that much from this game I modded. Maybe he's not always as confident as he appears? I haven't found his attitude unusual yet, so this is null for me.

AGM is probably still V/LA, no? He did mention traveling and stuff. He hasn't looked pro-town yet, but it is way too easy to call him a "suspect" right now. He only posted on 1 day, so all we have of him is Stream of consciousness. No reflection or analyzing.
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Post Post #347 (isolation #5) » Mon Nov 29, 2010 11:58 am

Post by Jahudo »

I'm going to be the contrarian again and say I do not like the magnus wagon.

M_O comes across as not thinking the VV case is a great decision for day 1. That would lead someone to wanting a prolonged day for more things to develop, like watching another person of interest (Rhinox). I think he's been consistent in wanting to either confirm or drop his suspicions on Rhinox as his high priority.

He also comes across as not thinking the VV case is a terrible decision. That explains why he would not actively defend VV, either to "save VV" or to artificially boost Rhinox's suspect status before there are more Rhinox things to talk about. He claimed to like some of the points on VV but did not seem to think it was good enough to end the day yet. Why defend someone that may be a #2, #3, #4 suspect? (@M_O: Was your VV read ever ranked?)

I do not see a problem with him not pushing on Rhinox harder for a variety of reasons. Rhinox was V/LA, M_O says he generally likes long days, Rhinox hadn't said much to comment on.
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Post Post #351 (isolation #6) » Mon Nov 29, 2010 2:51 pm

Post by Jahudo »

Vi, you mentioned Gamma back [url=http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 7#p2644747]here[url], which sounded like you were going to spend more time on him. Was that just initial vibes that went away or are you still trying to put your finger on it?

On the subject of Papa Zito, it is worth asking why he isn't voting VV. Someone he was ready to hammer.

@PZ: If you prefer VV today and don't like that his wagon got smaller, doesn't switching to UK and making that a more viable wagon invite more segmentation? So you could be bringing more people off the VV wagon while you wish the opposite. I don't know how you are rationalizing this since you could still argue UK is scummy while keeping your vote on VV and making him tied for largest wagon.
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Post Post #396 (isolation #7) » Fri Dec 03, 2010 11:20 am

Post by Jahudo »

Rhinox wrote:scum in {VV, MO, UK, Vezok, Jahudo}.
This kind of quote sounds like a good opportunity for scum to distance from a buddy. I think there's a good shot at 1 scum in here.
Rhinox on vezok wrote:unvote: vezok. Softclaim is meh and she still hasn't done anything but there are better lynches
I don't know if this is the response scum would do when another soft claims. It probably wouldn't be something planned in advance if vezok was scum. Players would have a natural aversion to it. It might be seen as an opportunity to at least pressure a buddy into playing more actively, explaining reads, etc. He acknowledges these problems but doesn't take a very strong tone so I don't see a scum connection here.
Rhinox on UK wrote:Iso 3: "Because Vi is a lot more valuable than 50% of you put together, as town or scum. She will not be lynched today." - this is pretty scummy if Vi is scum she is not more valuable than anyone.
This could be a way for scum to distance from each other safely. Vi was town and destined to die N1 it seems, so the tell is gone from UK but the accusation from Rhinox is always there. But it is possible he was just trying to pad his case.
Rhinox on MO wrote:So, I think MO might be scum but I want to make sure I'm not biased because he thinks I'm scum. Part of me wonders why hypo-scum MO would attempt to derail the VV wagon unless they were scum together, but town MO could legitimately slow the lynch if he wasn't confident it was the best choice.
The MO wagon is gaining alot of steam at this point but he's acting more hesitant over it than the VV wagon. Maybe that means he was against it, but when he talks about not wanting to seem biased I picture him wanting to be on the wagon but fearing any backlash. I think this was a sign that he was willing to see MO or VV get lynched, but cautious in case MO survived and either had some night power or good case come back around to get Rhinox.

---------------
vezokpiraka wrote:I am so stupid. I forgot to use my role last night.
I still don't care about this. For all I know you are a VT and trying to pull some gambit. There are plenty of players like this that "softclaims" have become meh to me.
But I still think you could do some scumhunting. How about it? Is MO still scummy? Why / why not?
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Post Post #432 (isolation #8) » Sat Dec 04, 2010 11:10 am

Post by Jahudo »

Vezok's role is confirmable easy enough, but his alignment isn't. Its probable he could have forgotten to use his role.

Vi avatar clone
DTMaster's claim is probably a good thing to reveal early, but I'm so unfamiliar with it that I wouldn't know whether Papa Zito may have been playing like a princess. He wasn't high on my list of suspects yesterday and it remains that way.

Back to Rhino:
Rhinox wrote:Elli and PZ are prob town right now for meta reasons, they both seem kinda lurkerish with little content but with both of them I've seen them each 2 or 3 times just like this and every time they were town.
This looks like a good opportunity to pair a buddy and a townie together with vague meta reasons that he thought he wouldn't have to back up. Neither was a big lynch choice, so if one remained that way he could keep claiming meta reasons for not suspecting a buddy while the hard-to-lynch townie remained hard-to-lynch.

So yeah, I'm also beginning to smell blood in the direction of Elli.
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Post Post #479 (isolation #9) » Sun Dec 05, 2010 11:16 am

Post by Jahudo »

It would be a bad idea to lynch DTM or Spy today. I dunno about balancing, we might not know about some roles that could factor into what looks like a powerful town role combo.
Ellibereth wrote:Jah, do you think vezok is town or scum.
Based on Rhinox, leaning town. Based on vezok's play, I'm beginning to understand that he's just being a proxy for Fate. So the reasons I had for finding him scummy (acting without reading the thread, so his actions are contradictory / opportunistic) look completely null now. So I don't consider him a good lynch choice today. Even thought I wish he'd change, I'm done trying to force it out of him.
Ellibereth wrote:I need to narrow down the bottom few, please hoooold more.
There's the PoE I've been waiting to see! When you're done looking at Rhinox, it'd be cool to see your UK/Magnus/Jahudo reads again. I agree there should be one scum in Rhinox's scum bracket, but I can't argue one right now :(
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Post Post #499 (isolation #10) » Sun Dec 05, 2010 5:53 pm

Post by Jahudo »

Vote: Ellibereth


I like this wagon enough to vote now that Elli has had plenty of time to comment on the claims but chose not to. It looks too cautious, like he didn't want to say something unpopular / something that might hint of scum insight or strategy.
+ How Rhinox treated him and PZ tell.
+ I feel good about the people on his wagon.

I believe Spy's modified claim that he's 1-shot. There were signs of it before DTM's claim, so it doesn't look like an adjustment at all. It also supports DTM-town. I don't see how Spy looks like SK though? Is there any case on his play or is it setup spec?

I also don't see the point in lynching DTM at all now. If we did we'd be out DTM + ProTownieTown1, then day. Best Case alternative we get rid of Scum2 + DTM + Townie1, then day. Worst case alternative SuspiciousTown1 + DTM + ProTownieTown1, then day. My rationale is that I think we can lynch a second scum before a DTM-powered lylo hits, based on the finite number of suspicious characters here.

I need to reread Magnus and UK.
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Post Post #505 (isolation #11) » Mon Dec 06, 2010 12:03 pm

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Fate wrote:if he thought scum in this caliber wouldn't see right thbrough his shades then idk howo to help.
Couldn't that be the whole point? Scum might think it has to be a double bluff if its coming from Spy. Like "he knows we'll know what he's talking about, but what he doesn't know is that we know that he knows that we know."

However I do see one possibility where Spy is scum, but its not SK and therefore not a bigger priority than finding a Rhinox buddy (also not Spy).
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Post Post #550 (isolation #12) » Tue Dec 07, 2010 7:01 am

Post by Jahudo »

Magnus's point was that VV was not an obvtownie to him, so even if another player became a popular wagon it wouldn't necessarily lead to magnus thinking he'd have to defend someone in order to get people onto Rhinox. Unless magnus also liked the new wagon slightly less than Rhinox. Couldn't that scenario have still came up? How long would it take until you tell people that even good wagons can wait because Rhinox is a great wagon?
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Post Post #585 (isolation #13) » Fri Dec 10, 2010 5:38 am

Post by Jahudo »

DTMaster wrote:You'd think that someone who's heavily sheeping Fate would be a bad thing (scum sheep to town aggressive leader).
Not when its that obvious, I don't think. And I don't think he would have claimed that he was trying to neighbor Fate if scum planned to kill him anyway. It doesn't make sense from a buddying standpoint if the majority seem to think Fate is town at the time.

Anyway,

Vote: UncertainKitten


@UK:
Why the 180 on magnus? First he's not scum with Rhinox, then you drop a hammer on him. Do not like.
What was that "bullets for bullets" about?

My other choice is still Ellibereth. I don't know much about the SocioPath case. Gonna read up.
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Post Post #598 (isolation #14) » Fri Dec 10, 2010 10:48 am

Post by Jahudo »

So when vezok said it didn't work, he meant its Fate's fault for dying. Something we didn't need to be told, but I guess the way you said it couldn't have been what you meant and nothing more.
UncertainKitten wrote:As for why I voted him, the little scraps I WAS being given seemed suspicious to me. As for "bullets for bullets", I thought it was a catchy way to say I wanted well reasoned cases before I lent my vote to a lynch. But Bullets for Rope doesn't sound as cool.
Even if you only intended to put him to L-1 (honest mistake to miscount), doesn't the bullets for bullets condition mean you would have unvoted to prevent someone from quick hammering? Did you not consider that either, or were you not worried it might happen?

The main issue I take with UK is that she didn't declare magnus a decent lynch until she voted. A few comments in the post before but they didn't sound like suspicions yet. So she could/should have said her vote could go to magnus alot earlier while she was asking Fate to make more sense. On its own, her asking Fate to make a better case looks like she could have been using him to do most of the legwork on the magnus wagon, have him put more momentum into it while not directly asking him to make a case for Spy town or scum. Which is what sounds like she would have preferred, but maybe not "really" preferred.
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Post Post #612 (isolation #15) » Sat Dec 11, 2010 11:28 am

Post by Jahudo »

DTMaster wrote:And trust me, after a ton of Reck and Ythill games I'm tired of scum sheeps.
Me too, and they are normally town. I am tired of mislynching people I later figure out were bad lynches because they looked funny to me. This is a site-wide change I've made on VI-ish players. Want links?
DTMaster wrote:4. Jahudo again: I dislike how you and many other people are excusing Vezok for changing his story in a role action claim . To me this is fishy.
Where did it change? He said it didn't work. He elaborated how it didn't work. I don't see the change.

-----------

I am in favor of extending this wagon:

unvote;
Vote: Ellibereth
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Post Post #613 (isolation #16) » Sat Dec 11, 2010 11:28 am

Post by Jahudo »

UncertainKitten wrote:OK...I did a quick ISO and I'm not seeing what's so terrible about SP. Elli, I do note, hasn't seemed to deliver after his first list, which is convenient.
QFT
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Post Post #616 (isolation #17) » Sat Dec 11, 2010 5:19 pm

Post by Jahudo »

vezokpiraka wrote:SP: Scummy scum. I've been scum with him before two times or more and this is exactly how he plays as scum.
I'll hear you out on this. What have you seen from his town game that is different?
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Post Post #620 (isolation #18) » Sun Dec 12, 2010 3:18 am

Post by Jahudo »

vezokpiraka wrote:Can I hammer?
Hammer Ellibereth? The guy you called "pretty townie"?
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Post Post #632 (isolation #19) » Mon Dec 13, 2010 11:40 am

Post by Jahudo »

What? Elli, you called vezok town here. You were paranoid sure, but you placed him in the town / not leftover group. What changed to either him or the people you were planning to look into?
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Post Post #651 (isolation #20) » Mon Dec 13, 2010 11:46 pm

Post by Jahudo »

Ellibereth wrote:TOWN
Vezo <- I'm sorta paranoid here though
Ellibereth wrote:Maggey Byrde
Unvote, Vote Vezok
Vote of opportunity, not conviction.
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Post Post #657 (isolation #21) » Thu Dec 16, 2010 12:16 pm

Post by Jahudo »

So is anyone vezok's neighbor now? Not that it means much.

Can someone explain the Socio case?
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Post Post #659 (isolation #22) » Thu Dec 16, 2010 12:48 pm

Post by Jahudo »

lol wut?
vezokpiraka wrote:AGM: Lurky. Probably town.
DTM: Pretty townish if you ask me.
GG: Townie.
UK: Pretty scummy.
Spy: Townie. Who could he be scum.
Why get closer to someone you called pretty scummy when you also had a bunch of town reads? Silly vezok, always full of contradiction.

In this case I don't see an obvious scum benefit, but I don't see townie rationale. :?

ENLIGHTEN ME>
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Post Post #673 (isolation #23) » Sat Dec 18, 2010 2:07 pm

Post by Jahudo »

We might have underpowered town + underpowered scum. What we've seen so far is a limited vig; a tracker variant that might not be able to link a person to a NK; and a claimed princess that probably helps scum more than town.

Anyway I don't want to think lynching obvtown DTM is the right move today.

Lets talk about these two quotes again:
Rhinox wrote:scum in {VV, MO, UK, Vezok, Jahudo}
Rhinox wrote:I don't recall if I've played with socio, almaster, or GG before and all 3 of them are under my radar right now so neutral on those 3.
I think it would be easy to place a scumbuddy in the "i don't really know them so I'm going to fence-sit and ignore" category at that stage of the game, but it would also be hard to make a hit list that large and not include a buddy in case one of them is killed early.

He could think his buddy is safe while VV and MO are around and under suspicion too, so I suppose he could go after his buddy a little harder than a mention. Rhinox voted vezok and UK, but the vezok vote was more of a hop and he didn't seem committed. His UK vote was stronger, more from the heart, but with weak points. So once again I think UK is a better wagon than vezok.

The other group is harder because Socio hasn't done much but I don't think he's done wrong either. But Gamma is cool

Vote: UK
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Post Post #680 (isolation #24) » Sun Dec 19, 2010 12:26 pm

Post by Jahudo »

@people that have been saying it, what makes this Socio's scum game as opposed to his town game?

Is it activity related, aggressive/conservative related, use of capital letters?
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Post Post #687 (isolation #25) » Sun Dec 19, 2010 4:21 pm

Post by Jahudo »

I see Socio's counter-point about that being a bigger game so its not really comparable for how involved you are.
But...
SocioPath wrote:I will only vote for VV/Rhino/Mango for the remainder of today.
So spin that wheel and decide who shall burn.
It looks like he would have voted Rhinox if there was ever a wagon on him day 1. The wagons just happened to be VV and Mango, and he said in that quote that he'd follow the group for one of those 3 people.
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Post Post #696 (isolation #26) » Tue Dec 21, 2010 2:11 pm

Post by Jahudo »

Can we all restate our reasons for voting? (you too vezok!)


My new and updated super duper case on UK:
1) Rhinox made a list of 5 suspects, and I think the odds are good he would use a big list to hide a scumbuddy in. VV and MO are town, Vezok and UK are left.

2) Rhinox made a case for UK that looked weak, like he wasn't worried if his reasons would fall through and he couldn't backup an argument.
Rhinox wrote:UK is also scummy. Starting out by voting the mod is just a RVS cop out.
UK always votes mod. He's played with her and could have known this.
Rhinox wrote:Iso 1: "Because Vi is a terrible wagon and shouldn't happen." - similar early response to the Vi wagon as me only UK takes it a step farther and calls it terrible.
He's trying to downplay himself but is also making a suspicion on her that he wouldn't push without looking like a hypocrit. So his sentence is fluff.
Rhinox wrote:Iso 3: "Because Vi is a lot more valuable than 50% of you put together, as town or scum. She will not be lynched today." - this is pretty scummy if Vi is scum she is not more valuable than anyone. "I'm fine with lynching her any day after though." - why is it not ok to lynch Vi D1 but ok any other day, all else being equal? Also, still voting the mod aka not voting anyone.
More of the same. He's making a wall of text on UK but not saying anything he can push very far. I think that's his intention, to make a show of pushing her.
Rhinox wrote:Iso 4: "@PZ: Well, you see, someone has to *say* she won't be lynched today or the magic doesn't work. And even if she's scum we can find her stupider scum buddies that out her as scum first." - this seems like backpedaling - in iso 3 she was giving actual reasons for not lynching Vi, and now she's just doing it because thats the "due process" or something but then also gives another real attempt at a reason that doesn't make sense to me. Why does it matter which scum we lynch first? Wouldn't it make sense to lynch the smarter/more dangerous scum first?
I don't think Rhinox has a point here either. UK isn't backtracking from an alignment stance on Vi, since she had none. She isn't backtracking from her "lynch anyone other than Vi" stance either.

Rhinox is just saying the same thing over again without pressing UK on why she is scum for doing this "scummy thing". He's not trying to build a case on her.
Rhinox wrote:...So basically those last 3 posts UK doesn't see the case and is trying to defend VV not by explaining why VV is town but by going after fate for not being succinct or convincing enough, and then after fate lays it out in the whole 1, 2, 3 list, UK suddenly sees the light. And the best part is this all happened in only a couple hours. It just seems fake.
He downplays this suspicion in the same post by basically agreeing that VV is either his first or second favorite wagon.

3) As far as her own play goes, I think her opinions and actions have been pretty similar to alot of people. Push VV, push magnus, push Elli, push vezok. Be cool with Vi and Fate.

And there have been times when she's flip-flopped:
UncertainKitten wrote:Hmm...to be honest, with the Rhinox flip, I can't see mango scum.
UncertainKitten wrote:HOWEVER, I WILL STATE THAT I AM NOT AGAINST A MANGO LYNCH AT THIS POINT, AND IN FACT WILL VOTE HIM NOW SINCE SPYREX IS A TERRIBLE LYNCH!

Unvote, Vote Mango
Instead of remained on an unpopular stance. She avoided a vote on PZ even though she argued back and forth with him strongly, almost as if she was testing the waters for support. She avoided directly questioning Spyrex despite a vote on him, which makes her prerequisites for placing a vote seem skewed when compared to how she handled PZ and Rhinox. In this case she could just fear Spyrex knocking her down, but she wanted to test the conspiracy waters over Spy-SK.

But most importantly she didn't take a stronger position (IE: vote) with Rhinox. And like Rhinox was with her, I don't think she wanted to.
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Post Post #701 (isolation #27) » Wed Dec 22, 2010 9:00 am

Post by Jahudo »

This isn't about changing your mind because they are completely separate points. You said Rhinox and Magnus didn't look like buddies. Fate said Magnus did scummy stuff on his own, which I assume you blanket agreed with at that point. You ignore your doubt and vote Magnus without any other comment (like why you don't think Spy or DTM is a better play at that point).

Nothing changed to make Magnus more likely scum with Rhinox did it? So you just push ignore part of your reasoning when you see a wagon that's close to a lynch. Too eager, even if you didn't mean to hammer.

I saw this same attitude when you acted like Rhinox was your top suspect. You never voted for him. You stayed on VV because other people wanted it that way. Scum would be happy to let town lead them on mislynches. Town would not so easily let unknowns lead them when they have doubts.
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Post Post #704 (isolation #28) » Wed Dec 22, 2010 12:06 pm

Post by Jahudo »

how so? You haven't made an actual counter-point to my case. You are just dismissing it as nonsense.
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Post Post #706 (isolation #29) » Wed Dec 22, 2010 1:48 pm

Post by Jahudo »

I never said changing your mind is a scumtell, end of story.

My issue is that there are too many parts of your "change of mind" that aren't on the record, so its hard to assume that everything looks like a natural and good-natured townie decision.

When you decided to vote magnus:

- Why did you ignore your own feeling that Magnus was not connected with Rhinox?
- Why did you not resolve any feelings that Spy and/or DTM was the better play today?

Too many things left unsaid. Your decision to vote was rash, while your actions leading up to it were not. I do not think that is normal behavior.
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Post Post #708 (isolation #30) » Wed Dec 22, 2010 2:26 pm

Post by Jahudo »

Why can't you answer the questions I just asked?
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Post Post #710 (isolation #31) » Wed Dec 22, 2010 2:42 pm

Post by Jahudo »

Your reasons for finding Magnus scummy on day 2 were also vague. At first you had a hard time understanding Fate's drunk talk, but you do realize that Magnus is saying stuff about Fate that you don't agree with. You don't say that anything is specifically scummy however. So I still can't pinpoint what made Magnus a better lynch for you than Ellibereth.

The second question is about other people you were considering better lynches at the time. Actually forget the part about Spyrex, because you closed that here:
UncertainKitten wrote:Well, regardless, you aren't the play today. Elli is starting to become more impressive too. DT also has an alibi at least, though he still might be the play.
Did you think DTM might have been a better play around the time you voted magnus?
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Post Post #712 (isolation #32) » Wed Dec 22, 2010 2:59 pm

Post by Jahudo »

I see your point about DTM. Sometime after the DTM claim you said PZ was probably playing bad town.

And you did mention Magnus' lurking:
UncertainKitten wrote:But, regardless, it DOES seem like you've not been doing a whole lot today until ~*~suddenly~*~ you have to defend yourself.
But that came 3 posts before you voted him. Were you waiting for something?

Also, we need moar of everybody else. Vezok and Socio need to be more helpful and say explain what's on their minds.
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Post Post #717 (isolation #33) » Thu Dec 23, 2010 4:27 am

Post by Jahudo »

Do you think vezok's playing like a newbie scum?

There was no explanation why Vezok went from finding Elli pretty townie, to asking to hammer. But there was also no explanation why he found Elli townie to begin with. So not only is it hard to determine if his change of mind was natural, but its hard to determine if his first read made sense from a townie perspective at that time.

He called UK scummy but used his ability on UK to become neighbors. Seems irrational but I have one theory as to why he'd do it. I'm hoping he can explain this stuff now.
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Post Post #720 (isolation #34) » Thu Dec 23, 2010 12:20 pm

Post by Jahudo »

I have absolutely no logical suspicion on Vezok. 0 Percent. I have much more on UK.

Vezok is null city. I can't trace if his switch on Elli makes sense because I can't trace his original stance on Elli. Its a different kind of playstyle he's been doing that I realized sometime day 1 I can't read. I'm now saying its not reliable to call him scummy for just looking/acting odd.

I'm treating him differently because I already tried attacking him day 1 and hit a brick wall. Everything he's done could have a reasonable townie explanation (the Fate sheeping, the lack of explained cases, the vote hops) but because of his playstyle I don't know how to find that out. I'm trying a different approach now.
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Post Post #722 (isolation #35) » Thu Dec 23, 2010 2:58 pm

Post by Jahudo »

Part Fate's read, part my past games that seem similar to this vezok situation.

BTW, what benefit did Vezok have to asking if he could hammer Elli? The hammer was already coming, wasn't it?
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Post Post #753 (isolation #36) » Sun Dec 26, 2010 5:48 pm

Post by Jahudo »

UncertainKitten wrote:Jahudo: Who's my scumbuddy?
Vague answer: One of these guys
Rhinox wrote:I don't recall if I've played with socio, almaster, or GG before and all 3 of them are under my radar right now so neutral on those 3.
A good way to avoid shining light on a scumbuddy that is keeping a low profile and staying out of trouble.

Specific answer: AGM
AGM wrote:also where do I call rhinox town. I have no read on him because he ISN'T POSTING, which makes sense.

SNIPE EDIT: OMG now rhinox is here too, god now i have to read him and rethink eveerrything.
Basically treats Rhinox the same way, says he'll make a read but I don't think he ever does.
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Post Post #755 (isolation #37) » Sun Dec 26, 2010 6:56 pm

Post by Jahudo »

I have town vibes on Gamma. And AGM earned a recent suspicion for looking fence-sitty behavior on socio and vezok. he's voting vezok but hasn't gone back on saying vezok looks like a mislynch. and sure he unvoted socio but still said his reasoning might not mean much.

Now maybe Socio is scum but I think he plays this style well as either alignment so its hard to tell on its own, and he isn't connected to Rhinox as much. I think knowing vezok and/or UK's alignment first would help me with Socio.
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Post Post #760 (isolation #38) » Mon Dec 27, 2010 6:35 am

Post by Jahudo »

Good defense AGM, maybe I'm wrong about you. Anyway, choosing between vezok and UK is the play for today.

Vezok's latest post is consistent with his earlier posts, but only he knows why he feels that way.
Gammagooey wrote:
Rhinox wrote:First off,
unvote: vezok
. Softclaim is meh and she still hasn't done anything but there are better lynches.
^looks like shitty distancing after getting an easy reason to unvote his partner
Couldn't Rhinox have also done this if vezok was town? The vezok wagon was going nowhere, so staying on it might begin to look like tunneling. And vezok-town probably wouldn't look like a threat to scum because he was sheeping Fate and not role confirmed or anything. So he would be a less useful, anti-town looking player if they could NK Fate and keep him around.
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Post Post #764 (isolation #39) » Mon Dec 27, 2010 9:44 am

Post by Jahudo »

AlmasterGM wrote:Jahudo, what do you do if vezok is in lylo?
This assumes we've caught another scums and I'm in the game still? I would re-look at vezok and see if he has any better connections to scum, but right now I don't buy the connection to Rhinox.

If you think getting rid of town-vezok has any benefit, then I would disagree because I don't see him as a VI.
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Post Post #773 (isolation #40) » Mon Dec 27, 2010 5:10 pm

Post by Jahudo »

Deadline is coming soon. Moar DTM (and Gamma) thoughts please.
AlmasterGM wrote:
Jahudo wrote:This assumes we've caught another scums and I'm in the game still? I would re-look at vezok and see if he has any better connections to scum, but right now I don't buy the connection to Rhinox.
What connections are you going to look at? Vezok has made ONE POST longer than 2 lines. His votes jump all over the place. You can spin the vezokwheel and it'll point in whatever direction you want.
I guess mostly how the dead scum treated today's vezok wagon and the day 1 wagon.

The first part is normal vezok meta. The second part doesn't seem abnormal in this game (he's voted VV, Magnus, Socio, and UK for scum picks; DTM for strategy) although you have to take into account that he was sheeping Fate (something he does in other games too).
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Post Post #781 (isolation #41) » Thu Dec 30, 2010 2:31 pm

Post by Jahudo »

Vote: DTMaster


I don't think there's anything else to say today. We could try and pick a scummiest player but if we're wrong and DTM is town, we'd probably be screwed. I think we should play it safe.

4 person mafia seems really unlikely based on the low power of the town that we've seen so far (if DTM is telling the truth). So I think we're destined for a 3 person lylo tomorrow, and massclaim would be best saved for then too.
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Post Post #789 (isolation #42) » Fri Dec 31, 2010 11:09 am

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DTMaster wrote:Wat. Why did SP die? WHHHHHRRRY. The NK WIFOM was correct though. I mean, like I expected that if I didn't die Gamma should have died. NK WIFOM IS KILLING MY BRAIN. Allow me to get my words before we lynch me.
If you + Socio had been NK'ed, I think we would have no lynched with 4p and gone for the 3-person lylo anyway. So I don't think scum passing on DTM means much.
DTMaster wrote:Paranoia wild card makes me distrust Gamma. Logic based on yesterday's wagon points to AGM since scum would have won assuming Vezok town. This means that it was the end game stages for scum's POV yesterday assuming Vezok-town.
In this case I think it would depend on Gamma-scum's idea of who you were going to vote for. You held off voting and didn't mention UK much; only called vezok a person of interest so with Socio and I being very clear who we preferred it might have looked unlikely to lynch vezok-town. This scenario looks plausible, but so does scum thinking you would have preferred a vezok lynch over a UK one. Unless I'm missing something in your ISO.
DTMaster wrote:Crazy theory: Both Vezok and UK were scum and bused for lulz.
If that's true then UK felt vezok was too much of a liability, because she didn't start out the day with any backup suspects while vezok did (Socio and me). I don't think she mentioned any suspicion of either of us until we attacked her, so she probably didn't plan on agree with vezok there. Now maybe she would have bussed to avoid being lynched in the future, I could also see that as a possibility. But what is the meaning behind her not having a backup suspect already? That's a mystery to me.
DTMaster wrote:Ihmo UK wouldn't reveal her scum buddy directly. But her interactions with AGM support the distancing theory. Linking SP to Vezok reveals her plan of attack for mislynches based on a SP flip. I think AGM is the man. I need to finish my reread since I recall that I didn't finish my response to the man.

I find it funny that UK attacked everyone in her defense. Note to self: Look at the interactions between UK and AGM. My gut leads me there.
It is interesting that she ended the day by pressuring the only one who joined her on the vezok wagon. Maybe at 2 votes to 3 she sensed a greater chance of herself getting lynched, and had to scramble. Although if vezok was scum and she thought he could still be lynched, maybe she was setting up AGM as the buddy. This also depends on whether scum thought DTM was going to vote UK or vezok.
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Post Post #795 (isolation #43) » Sun Jan 02, 2011 10:50 am

Post by Jahudo »

True, maybe scum thought you had fakeclaimed, DTM. UK had even been hinting she didn't fully believe you, so its possible she was hoping you'd be lynched before you had to be NK'ed. If that's true, then maybe she didn't think a townie lynch yesterday would guarantee a scum victory. So if she bussed yesterday, that's one possible reason why.

But its hard to overlook how vezok would have been the ideal mislynch yesterday. Someone who didn't defend themselves, talked rarely but exuded anti-towniness.
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Post Post #800 (isolation #44) » Mon Jan 03, 2011 7:43 am

Post by Jahudo »

Well I don't think an alternative to lynching vezok or UK was brought up yesterday, or late the previous day (I gotta confirm that tho). So maybe UK would have hopped on a wagon someone else started? But then we don't know if she would have opposed any wagon yesterday.
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Post Post #804 (isolation #45) » Tue Jan 04, 2011 7:04 am

Post by Jahudo »

I'm ready for night.

DTM do you think we should do anything else today? Oh, and what order do you think tomorrow's massclaim should be?
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Post Post #857 (isolation #46) » Wed Jan 12, 2011 1:07 pm

Post by Jahudo »

Gamma I'm hurt you murderered me :(

Well played though.

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