Cold War Mafia - GAME OVER!!

[Artem]

NO MORE ANSWERING THE QUESTIONS

I am completely serious about that, I have no idea how many times I have to reitterate it.

Maybe you should elaborate a little? I've been in several games before where a series of questions have been asked by what eventually turned out to be a scum player. I think it's an easy way to appear to be doing work, without actually doing any, so scum tend to resort to this tactic. In that sense, I'd agree that it's a scumtell against furcolow.

However, I don't get why it's bad to answer these questions? The answers put some information out on the table, which can be cross-referenced against later in the game. I guess I'll withhold mine in case I'm missing something.

*thread updated as I was posting*

RQS is useless and tends to delay scumhunting in my experience. It also tends to be longer than RVS which provides more fluff. I agree with Llama that it just tends to produce faketells that scum can run with.

I don't know if I agree with this, necessarily, because isn't voting / bandwagoning someone for asking RQS already qualifies as scumhunting?

With an

FoS: furcolow

, I would like to

Vote: PoisonIvy

, however, because of this:

No. Im saying i have no qualms about being investigated if someone deems me worthy of it. Im not going "Oh! COP COP!! Pick me! Pick meee!" Do not twist my words.

Why would you even feel the need to mention this?

I don't think anybody is going to admit to having qualms about being investigated, so saying that is null information. What it does do, however, is plant an idea inside a cop (or similar role)'s head and sends them on a WIFOM chase about whether or not you should be investigated. At the moment, I find this to be scummier play than furcolow's questions.

[Artem]

Hm, the problem with the ivy wagon is that as scum her PM should have her against peaceful players, not against Americans or soviets so her assuming that the set-up is Americans vs soviets makes me honestly think she just didn't read it all that closely

So, what makes not reading a PM closely a more likely scenario than not getting that PM?

I also don't like how you're making justifications for another player.

Also, Artem, in your iso is 1 post
you call my rqs a "scumslip"
how is rqs, in the first post of the game, not null?

Scumtell, not a scumslip, and it's based on my experience: the RQS that I've seen before were almost universally pitched by scum. I guess time will tell whether the same trend holds here but as I said, I think it's a great way to appear to be doing something without actually doing much, which I think appeals to scum more.

----------------------

FoS: Beasts of the Sea

for the terrible reasons used to jump on the PoisonIvy wagon.

[Artem]

Are you worried about PoisonIvy getting closer to the lynch threshold or something? I am voting the person you are voting (with more substantive reasons than you), yet you don't even suggest that I might be bussing. Do you not think that PoisonIvy is scummy for outlining reasons to lynch Furcolow regardless of his alignment, doesn't vote Furcolow, was waiting for Lowell to assess Lowell's alignment (based on Lowell always being scum), and then expresses interest in sliding onto the Furcolow wagon? Or do you think your single reason of PoisonIvy subtly planting WIFOM for any investigative roles is enough to warrant her lynch by itself?

I don't get the bit about bussing. Where does that even come from? Why should I be suggesting that you're bussing just because we're voting for the same person? ARE you bussing?

Just because I'm voting somebody doesn't mean I'm giving a free pass to everybody else voting the same person. I'm looking at reactions and reasons from everybody. Here's the problem(s) I have with your reasons:

Uh oh. You detail why it is beneficial to lynch Furculow as town or scum and then you random vote someone based on flawed probabilities? I don't think so. You probably just want someone else to start the bandwagon and you can slide on later, right? Oh, and you are investigation immune scum? Got it.

There's no "detail why it is beneficial to lynch Furculow". There's a blurb about policy-lynching both Fur and Lowell. Since each player has one vote only, it's natural to pick one of the two. (And for what it's worth, I've played with Lowell before and policy-lynch is not completely off-base (sorry, Lowell), though you don't necessarily have the same experience, so this is nothing more than a side-note.)

The real question is why are you singling out PoisonIvy over other players who started with policy-lynch votes? (For example, RedCoyote's vote for XScorpion) Are you focused on PI because she suggested two targets for policy-lynch instead of one, or because her wagon was the biggest, or what?

That didn't take long. Joining the Furcolow wagon that she basically initiated, and still waiting to judge Lowell (who hadn't even posted yet) based on him being scum in every game she has played with him (statistical anomaly versus game related content).

I fail to see how somebody wanting to join the wagon they initiated is a scumtell? If anything, it's putting their money where their mouth is.

...or judging another player that you have had previous experience with instead of giving them a free pass? How is that a scumtell?

There are other reasons justifying her being scum besides the win condition, "who is town" and "who is scum" stuff. That being said...

...and those reasons are.....


To answer your last question: no, I don't think the WIFOM plant is enough to warrant a lynch, but it's enough to warrant pressure. Your "more substantive" reasons, on the other hand, just feel like a weak attempt at justifying your hop on a wagon that's gaining speed. FoS stands.

-------------------------
Minor points:
- Would love to hear more from PoisonIvy.
- Loving the pressure on Furcolow, but I'm getting a town read on him. (Primarily based on my own panic fits I've thrown, when I was a townie getting wagoned.)

[Artem]

Artem states a summary against furcolow but votes me and just looks like he's trying to have his cake and eat it by saying im WIFOMing a potential influencial role like a cop, would a vig not count no?

Oh the irony... isn't "giving a summary on one player and voting another" the reason why Beasts voted you? Regarding the second bit, let me ask you this: what is the pro-town motivation for bringing up investigations (cop, vig, whatever) so early in the game? You talk about investigation on you in your ISO 2, right after somebody points out something suspicious in your ISO 1. Godfather is what popped into my head when I first saw that.

ThAdmiral however has been giving me bad vibes throughout. Dont actually know why but what he's saying sounds like scum to me. Equally lowell still seems like scum but lowell's an easy enough lynch ThAdmiral scares me.

So, are YOU trying to have your cake and eat it? Why is Lowell scum in your text, but not at the bottom of the post, when you give the list? Similarly, I don't get the ThAdmiral wagon and am yet to see a reason that is not "vibe"-based. As LynchMePls pointed out, you're simply echoing this FOTM sentiment without giving any solid reasons of your own (which was EXACTLY your problem with Beasts of the Sea's vote on you.)

This is just a vortex of hypocrisy aimed at keeping your options open.

Ive seen him play as town and he is one who bounds ahead regardless of anyones welfare but his own.

He's thrown a fit and put his own survival over the scumhunting goal of the town with his #120. I feel like that seems to fit your meta on him.

@Furcolow and PoisonIvy: Can either of you post a link to the game you're both keep referring to (unless, of course, it's in progress)?

First, PoisonIvy said nothing about policy lynching Lowell, so can you show me where you got that idea? Her vote was clearly a random vote, based on the premise that Lowell has been scum in every game they have played together.

I reread the post and I can see how you may view it as a random vote. I read it as a policy vote (as well as RedCoyote's vote). May be just a matter of different interpretations. I also don't necessarily think that policy and random votes are that different at the beginning of the game.

Well, you said I was suspicious for the way I joined the wagon that you are also on; so do you think I am bussing my partner PoisonIvy? Otherwise it doesn't make any sense.

Now, here's the bit that I find strange and suspicious and which suggests that you have inside information.

From my point of view, there are four options:
1. PI is town, you're town;
2. PI is town, you're scum;
3. PI is scum, you're town;
4. PI is scum, you're scum.

Option #4 is the only place where bussing would occur. Since I don't know either of your alignments, why should I be bringing up bussing? Why are YOU bringing up bussing?

(And for what it's worth, if you're scum, I think option #2 is more likely than #4, because your posts just don't read like bussing. Though at the moment, I still rank PI as more suspicious than you, hence a vote on her and a FoS on you.)

[Artem]

Artem: Your 199 looks like you're inflating the length of your post. Why include the four possibilities? Presumably everyone here has played enough mafia that they don't need that spelled out for them.

Because the first time I asked Beasts about bringing up bussing, he tells me that it doesn't make any sense for me to not think that he's bussing. ("Well, you said I was suspicious for the way I joined the wagon that you are also on; so do you think I am bussing my partner PoisonIvy? Otherwise it doesn't make any sense.")

So, I thought I'd spell it out...

[Artem]

I think this is the game that you're looking for, Artem

Fur is right about PoisonIvy posting walls of text as town, though not really any less or more than she does in this game. The part he forgot to mention is that he also posted walls of text as town in that game. I especially love this gem:

If you knew my meta, you would realize I don't put in nearly this much effort when I am scum, and I am a blathering idiot.

So, I'd like an explanation from Fur behind why he's playing his self-proclaimed scum meta in this game?

Unvote; Vote: Furcolow

@PoisonIvy: You say you're still sure XScorpion is scum. Why? What do you think about his response on your points and questions towards you? Mind answering my question about pro-town motivation behind bringing up investigations in ISO 2?

@Beasts:

So what you're essentially saying is that the person you're voting for is town, and the person you're FoSing is scum, and is voting for the townie that you're also voting for?

That's one potential scenario, yes. Another potential scenario is that I'm voting (well, was) for a scum and you're a townie who's also voting for the same scum. Yet a third, and in my opinion least likely, scenario is that you're a scum bussing your partner. You seem to think that I should consider the last scenario to be most likely, though I think I understand the confusion. You seem to think that I view everybody I vote / FoS as scum simultaneous, whereas I pursue multiple scenarios at the same time to try and nail down the most likely one.

@People voting Rat: What do you think about the speed of the wagon you're on?

[Artem]

Artem, I am not playing behind my "supposed scum meta" whatsoever.
If you see me as unhelpful and scummy here, you should see me as scum.

I skimmed some of your scum meta and it's actually the other way around. You post just as many walls of text when you're scum.

Unvote

, since you pretty much still read town.

Vote: InflatablePie

because he vote-hops like crazy.

-Joins the game, skims a few pages and votes GW. (First vote on the wagon, though.)
-Rat wagon picks up speed, IP jumps on it.
-I mention the speed, IP jumps off it. Jumps on smargaret over something that was actually legit (rat excusing his anti-town behaviour by claiming lack of scumhunting skill and smargaret pointing it out.)
-RedCoyote posts his suspicion of GW and IP is back on the GW wagon.

It could be a playstyle thing, but I find it suspicious how every teeny thing causes him to change his vote. It feels like IP puts no thought into his votes whatsoever.

Combine that with the fact that his predecessor was the guy that posted this:

Hm, the problem with the ivy wagon is that as scum her PM should have her against peaceful players, not against Americans or soviets so her assuming that the set-up is Americans vs soviets makes me honestly think she just didn't read it all that closely

and whom I've asked what makes misreading a PM more likely than not getting it and who I thought was suspicious for making up excuses for another player.

[Artem]

I enjoy putting my vote where it matters more. I suspect both of them, but would rather have GW be pressured as opposed to a single vote on smarg that will get probably little following.

So is that "both" being GW and smarg? What about your vote on Rat then?

Vote: InflatablePie

because he vote-hops like crazy.

Firstly, if anyone is really guilty of this, I think it's Fur. Secondly, I've like both rat and Ghost for scum right now. Thirdly, even if I concede that Pie's vote hopping is suspect (which I do not), do you really think Pie is the best place for your vote right now?

1. Sure, Fur also vote-hops, but the difference is that Fur seems to do it unprompted, whereas IP's votes are generally a response to or follow on somebody else (for example, when I mention the wagon speed). In that sense, they feel less sincere. Additionally, IP's votes don't really have much associated with them in terms of what the votees can respond to. If the votes were meant for pressure, then you have to give the player something they can respond to so that you can judge reaction.

@IP: Why were there no questions towards the people you were voting for?

2. Noted.

3. Well, no, I still like PI's wagon. The problem is that PI gave up on playing and ideally I'd like to see a replacement before it's pushed further. (Basically, for the same sentiment other players mentioned: you can't judge the reactions with the player not playing.)

That was at the time of my last post. Now, I also agree with the pressure on jmj. I don't necessarily think talking about reading people in ISO is a big deal, but not following through with the promise of content is. Jmj needs to do a solid catch-up post (I also agree that it needs to be concise), and the longer he delays it the more votes should be on his wagon. This is definitely where I will be moving my vote also when I feel like jmj had enough time and still hasn't delivered.

The wagons on Rat, GW, and gonnano are so-so. Sure, I'll agree that the lack of voting from GW, the over-defensiveness of gonnano, and whatever-the-hell-rat-is-getting-voted-for (I guess useless posts?) are suspicious, but I wonder how much of it is playstyle / personality. I think David nailed it with this one:

I think day 1 wagons and the day 1 lynch will typically be on someone rather randomly who gets bandwagoned for a slight slip-up or post-style/play-style issue anyways.

and I feel like those three fall into this category.

PI, on the other hand, had some very specific things that players asked her that she chose to ignore or gloss over. Likewise, jmj has a very specific thing that everybody wants from him. That is what makes those two good wagons.

I'm a little shocked at the amount of focus time wagon speed is getting in this game, especially considering at the time of this post pappums rat has a sum total of five votes. Unless you think a good number of scum (which would be suicide) are fueling this wagon then what is the point?

If a wagon gains speed quickly for little-to-no reason, then it's a suspicious thing. Saying that scum wouldn't do it because it's suicide is WIFOM.

[Artem]

LMP, to some extent this is jmj's playstyle. But is it really a playstyle when he isn't playing?

Smarg, can you please link some of the games where this is the case? I poked through his posts and I see a lot of one-liners all over the site, some mention of the same problems as in this thread, but no other promises of content.

I feel like turning up the heat for now, though:

Unvote; Vote: jmj

WHERE!? Other than his inability to post (which he is claiming has outside factors)? If it's the inability to post, then your case DOES boil down to a lurker/policy lynch, despite your protestations to the contrary.

It's not an inability to post. If jmj was truly unable to post, he wouldn't be posting to tell us that he's currently busy and that the content is coming. This is called active lurking and it's a scumtell. If he was unable to post, he'd stop posting, get replaced and/or ask for replacement.

Regarding Feysal's case on Fur:

I admit that I fall into the category of people who's dismissing Fur's anti-town behavior as that of a VI. However, I don't think he's a good Day 1 lynch. There are some players here (Lowell, for instance) who I absolutely do NOT want to be in LyLo with because of how hard they are to read. Such players often become targets of very informative D1 wagons, but ultimately D1 is not the right time to pursue them. At one point, I voted Fur for playing his self-proclaimed scum meta, and I'm keeping an eye on him, but I would really like to see 1-2 cardflips before gaging whether Fur should be pursued seriously.

The purpose of Day 1 is to generate content and get a set of initial reads and reactions on everyone. Fur is generating plenty of content, and with less than 2 weeks to deadline I think a better place for votes / pressure is players that we don't have good reads on.

Regarding LMP's case on ThAd:

While it's a good case, ThAd did post his response. LMP for the most part ignored the response and did not provide any follow-up questions, which currently makes it a tunnel-vision more than anything else. The fact that LMP tunnels ThAd to the point of defending jmj (which I feel is a competing wagon) is also slightly suspicious.

Other comment(s)

Really like the posts of the replacing-in players Feysal and Amrun. Both provide a good set of reads and point out scummy behavior in other players. The only thing that stands out to me is the repeated use of "I know I'm NOT scum" in Amrun's arguments. Some of it is used to justify his reads on others, though, so I guess it's reasonable.

Also, you seem to have inside alignment information and a lot of your reads on people change suddenly and for no apparent reason.

I would think that somebody without inside information would be more willing to change their reads. (Albeit, not for no apparent reason.)

[Artem]

Artem - jmj was the day 1 lynch in black and white comic book mafia in Coney Island (sorry, too lazy to look up the link right now) for exactly the same delaying tactics/lack of analysis.

This is the game you're referring to and this is the type of a post that we were pressuring jmj to do.

I noticed Artem saying jmj3000 was referring to the same problems as in this thread in other games, but I like to see for myself.

Jmj made an all-familiar post in Outdoorsmen Mafia 2 where he recently flipped scum, but the game is ongoing so I'm not making any further comments on it past this sentence.

What is this Verona Mafia you speak of?

i just realized I got you confused with Artem

The Verona game I played in was before the site move.

----------------

In terms of the three wagons, my order of preference:

1. Amrun: The investigation mention by PI in her ISO #2, Amrum's reliance on "I know I'm town" and Amrum's "Everybody's guilty until proven innocent" are all the things lighting up my scumdar. (I actually don't find PI's setup discussion scummy, and I think that PI ignoring direct questions was her giving up on the game)

2. Jmj: I still think jmj was actively lurking, but he's done this in at least two other games (linked above), so it may or may not be directly related to his alignment. The difference in his town play was he actually came out and made a post with his reads. Interested in seeing some content from Moth.

3. ThAd: I still don't get this wagon. The primary case was revolving around ThAd not doing scumhunting, but a) why ThAd and not, say, one of the other lurkers? and b) ThAd DID post a defense that was never followed up on.

Ideally, I want to be voting Amrun, but the wagons seem to be ThAd(8), Jmj(7) and Amrun(5), so in the interests of consolidation, I'm keeping my vote on Moth for now.

[Artem]

I just caught up on reading, but it took me over an hour and I'm too beat to post details, so here's a quick summary of my thoughts (with details hopefully tomorrow if I have time during my lunch break):

- Out of the people that voted for Amrun after her claim, DP is most likely town, Scott and Gonnano are most likely scum, Moth is kinda null. (I think there were others, but I'll check tomorrow)
- Furc is most likely a third-party joker role (suicide bomber? did those exist during the Cold War?) and should be silenced each and every day from now on.
- Smarg is likely scum
- Feysal and Bvo are awesome

Unvote

until I post next.

[Artem]

So, I think Amrun's claim is the current focal point of Day 1 and the reactions after the claim are probably the most insightful.

About the claim itself:

The most critical point is that a silencer seems to useless for town. Scummy players should be lynched, not silenced. So, if Amrun is town (which, after Feysal's meta investigation into PI's game on another site and bvo's hammer gambit, I'm inclined to believe she is), and there is no bastard modding, what is the point of a town silencer? Roles like Arsonist and Firefighter tend to come together, so there must be a role that a town-silencer is supposed to counter, and I think that role must be a joker. Think about it: lynching a joker is bad because you waste a lynch and the joker wins; leaving the joker alive is bad because they are not interested in scumhunting and will randomly throw their votes around, creating unnecessary chaos. What's the proper play then? Silence the joker. And who's been a completely useless player, whom everybody considers to be town, yet who semi-randomly flails his vote around and gets on everybody nerves? Hint: his name begins with the letter F. <.<

Clarifications about the claim:

I read up on McCarthy on Wikipedia and what I got out of it was: he was paranoid about Soviet spies in the U.S., but due to his inability to substantiate / prove his spy accusations, he was silenced by the Senate. So,
1. Amrun, can you double-check that it's you doing the silencing, and not you getting silenced?
2. @Everybody who's claiming that McCarthy was a "warmonger": can you please link to where you're getting that from, because I don't necessarily associate spy paranoia with a desire for war.

Reactions to the claim:

DP: Critical assessment of Amrun's claim and wavering about it's truthfulness / falsehood. Since a townie would have no inside information, this would be an expected reaction, so I believe DP is town. Scum, on the other hand, would know that Amrun is town and since a silencer is not a particularly dangerous (for scum) role, a mislynch would be more beneficial than spending a night kill on Amrun, so they would be interested in pushing for the mislynch at all costs. This brings us to:

Moth: Adamant about the McCarthy role being scum, but draws conclusions mostly from personal education, which gives me a null read.

Smargaret: I think this has been pointed out before. Smarg has a knack for flinging suspicion towards popular targets but not voting them herself. #739 is exactly that and is a major scumtell, because if Amrun is lynched and flips town, smarg was never on the wagon.

Scott: Also adamant about McCarthy role being scum, however what strikes me most is #758, where he's painting something a scumslip. Scum tend to look for convenient things to call scumslips, so they can make their accusations stick better.

Lowell:

Empking

Lowell just needs to die before the endgame, but not necessarily today. (Nothing personal, Lowell, but remember that game where the doc fakeclaimed a PGO? Yea, I still blame the town loss on your playstyle.) Null read.

Gonnano: Feeds off the same "US vs. Soviets" misrep, even though Amrun has repeatedly stated that she never claimed the game to be US vs. Soviets (her predecessor, PI, speculated about it, but I believe Feysal covered it pretty well in #762). Many have pointed out the opportunistic nature of gonnano's votes and the face-sitting attitude. Not much more to say. Scum read.

I still dislike ThAd's wagon, but I think the new competing wagon to his should be one of {Smarg, Scott, Gonnano}. Since DP is getting the ball rolling on gonnano, and out of the three gonnano had the most players suspicious of him, I think his wagon would be the best competition.

Vote: gonnano

Anybody else want to hike up gonnano before the deadline with us?

[Artem]

face-sitting

Uh.... fence-sitting. <.<

[Artem]

Too late; I think Sathoris may have decided to test the governor claim.

Don't understand this post. Amrun is at L-4 as far as I can tell.

[Artem]

Here's part of McCarthy's wikipedia entry:

The term McCarthyism, coined in 1950 in reference to McCarthy's practices, was soon applied to similar anti-communist activities. Today the term is used more generally in reference to demagogic, reckless, and unsubstantiated accusations, as well as public attacks on the character or patriotism of political opponents.[2]

This guy was so bad that his name has now become synonymous with demagogy.
Too lazy to look up demagogy? Here's what it means.

Demagogy is a strategy for gaining political power by appealing to the prejudices, emotions, fears and expectations of the public—typically via impassioned rhetoric and propaganda

None of it says anything about promoting or averting a nuclear conflict.

------------------

I think the day is getting waffled. I'm kinda tired of:
-Posts like #930 where players find somebody suspicious yet

do not vote them

.
-Emotion-based votes (#1044) on players who are not currently top candidates.
How exactly are these things supposed to help us consolidate before the deadline?

Also, #1011 is NOT a "good catch":

My PM doesn't explicitly state whether or not there are town aligned players of different nationalities

and

whos predicesors role specifically states is not told if they exist

are not the same thing. It's one thing for a PM to say "You're [insert non-US/Soviet nationality here] and you're town", it's another for it to also state "...and there are other town-aligned players of varying nationalities". Besides, in that same quote, JVW mentions "the rules regarding nationality and alignment are in the first post", so....

The wagon is nevertheless informative because it's just mind-blowing how fast it's grown over something like this.

[Artem]

Amrun, who did you silence?

[Artem]

It sounded like llama might have been the vig target, i.e. redcoyote's target.

I think I would agree with that. RC had problems with Llama hinting a vig role (#931), and being a vig himself, he would probably want to off Llama. RC didn't really talk about GW / hohum in his last few D1 posts.

So, it's probably one American and one Soviet scumteam?

Why do you think that? If we assume that RC shot Llama, then the flavor is not symmetric: RC was poisoned but hohum was "removed from the bunker". Why would Soviet or American scum be more likely to "remove" someone vs. kill someone?

My bet is on a 3rd party role, but I'm not sure what role would remove players rather than NK them. I think I've seen flavor like that before somewhere, but it's been too long to remember.

It strikes me as somewhat convenient that scum have apparently "blocked" her so she doesn't have to prove her power.

She didn't say

scum

roleblocked her, though with a townie blocker lynched, it would be the most likely scenario. But I also agree that a silencer seems like a really strange role for scum to block. It may also have been some other role, like a jailor, who took Amrun out of the game for the night to see if a night kill would happen. Or Amrun could be lying. I'm afraid there's no way to check at this point in the game.

Sotty: I'm going to be V/LA Friday - Monday

[Artem]

I'm afraid there's no way to check at this point in the game.

I guess I shouldn't say that. Technically, if we all mass-claimed and somebody claimed a jailor who targeted Amrun last night, then Amrun would most likely not be lying.

But... you know... with the current info, there's no way to know if Amrun is telling the truth, and even if there was, that'd still only confirm her role and not alignment. (though being truthful about the role is more pro-town than not)

I'll stop blabbering now.

[Artem]

Ya, because clearly your power was so dangerous that the

scum

wanted you RB'ed....

She didn't say

scum

roleblocked her...

Why the misrep?

Why do people keep insisting this is a scum roleblock,

even after I post the bit about other potential (and potentially town) blocking roles

.

FoS: LMP

, because it looks like he's riding some inside information here. I think scum role-blocking Amrun and going into the day with a "I don't buy it" attitude plan is a potential play here.

[Artem]

I know RedCoyote did not say much about GhostWriter/hohum yesterday, but that slot would make most sense as a vigilante target, and the other two as scum targets.

I disagree. Llama dropped hints that he had a Vig shot. If you were a Vig and had a feeling that somebody was dropping breadcrumbs for a later fakeclaim of your role, wouldn't you shoot them?

-------------------------

Of course it would have been scum, how many town RBs do you expect us to have?

She didn't say

scum

roleblocked her, though with a townie blocker lynched, it would be the most likely scenario. But I also agree that a silencer seems like a really strange role for scum to block.

It may also have been some other role, like a jailor, who took Amrun out of the game for the night to see if a night kill would happen.

A jailor would generally be a pro-town role.

-------------------------

If scum want to pull a move like that to get a lynch on Amrun, let them, it's not exactly like they were going to have a hard time lynching Amrun anyways.

My job is to find and lynch scum, not prevent them from lynching Amrun.

-------------------------

@Amrun: This is why Artem's post was stupid.

Thank you, your Highness, for taking the time out of your busy schedule to explain to us plain mortals why the posts by peasants, such as myself, are so stupid. For future reference, pointlessly discounting other players' posts as "stupid" and throwing fits (#1219 and #1231) are generally considered to be turd-tells and could be seen as a violation of rule #12.

-------------------------

This is my last post before my V/LA. See you guys Monday/Tuesday.

[Artem]

Back from V/LA.

1. Two mafia factions.

Still not 100% sold on it. Everybody who's saying that GW was a good vig target are also the people that were suspecting GW during Day 1. Sure, it makes a good vig target to

you

, but I didn't think GW was that scummy and I suspect some of the other players shared my view. Since RedCoyote didn't talk much about GW, I would actually think he didn't suspect him. On the other hand, RC

did

quiz Llama quite a bit.

Not if I was an odd-night vig. Odds are there is probably an even-night vig as well. Dropping vig tells isn't really a good reason (as the sole reason) to shoot someone as vig when you are alternating nights.

Ever heard of "How does a scummy vig prove himself town to the rest?" ("He shoots himself") I believe the same holds in multi-vig scenarios. If somebody is (soft-)claiming a vig and is being scummy, as a vig you can prove their alignment to the town, just like you would prove yours. RC is an experienced player, so I can easily see him playing this strat.

If we

are

dealing with two scum factions, then Feysal is probably right about wincons. It makes more sense for pro-war players to want the opposite faction dead than to simply want war. I think the following bit got kinda glossed over:

As for possible scumtells, three people yesterday hinted at two scum teams: DavidParker (#845), Furcolow (#894), gonnano (#1114). Furcolow's hint was the three-member scumteam which smargaret caught, the other two were explicit. Only DavidParker has not explained where his insight came from. Why did you think there were two scum factions? And bvoigt too of course, why did you?

I'm not sure if I missed it, but I never saw the three (DP, Furc, gonnano) reply to this question.

(As I'm writing this, it occurs to me that if we

are

dealing with two scum factions, one of the scum factions would know for sure whether RC off'd Llama. Hmm.... I think I'll need to re-read some of the RC-killed-GW arguments. Though the fact that the majority seems to be pushing for "RC killed GW" definitely means that we really are in a two-scum-faction scenario.)

2. Wagon analysis.

I like ThAd's analysis of the bunny wagon. I think another informative wagon was Amrun's D1 wagon. I'm still leaning towards Amrun being town and I think there were some opportunistic "I don't buy the claim"-style vote-hopping associated with her wagon. Here's my previous post about it:

DP: Critical assessment of Amrun's claim and wavering about it's truthfulness / falsehood. Since a townie would have no inside information, this would be an expected reaction, so I believe DP is town. Scum, on the other hand, would know that Amrun is town and since a silencer is not a particularly dangerous (for scum) role, a mislynch would be more beneficial than spending a night kill on Amrun, so they would be interested in pushing for the mislynch at all costs. This brings us to:

Moth: Adamant about the McCarthy role being scum, but draws conclusions mostly from personal education, which gives me a null read.

Smargaret: I think this has been pointed out before. Smarg has a knack for flinging suspicion towards popular targets but not voting them herself. #739 is exactly that and is a major scumtell, because if Amrun is lynched and flips town, smarg was never on the wagon.

Scott: Also adamant about McCarthy role being scum, however what strikes me most is #758, where he's painting something a scumslip. Scum tend to look for convenient things to call scumslips, so they can make their accusations stick better.

Lowell: Empking Lowell just needs to die before the endgame, but not necessarily today. (Nothing personal, Lowell, but remember that game where the doc fakeclaimed a PGO? Yea, I still blame the town loss on your playstyle.) Null read.

Gonnano: Feeds off the same "US vs. Soviets" misrep, even though Amrun has repeatedly stated that she never claimed the game to be US vs. Soviets (her predecessor, PI, speculated about it, but I believe Feysal covered it pretty well in #762). Many have pointed out the opportunistic nature of gonnano's votes and the face-sitting attitude. Not much more to say. Scum read.

Cross-referencing that with ThAd's list, we get smarg, lowell and gonnano who were associated with both wagons in scummy ways. Out of the three, I find smarg's play to be the scummiest right now, with Lowell and gonnano tied for a close second.

Vote: smarg

3. Furcolow

I'm disliking the 'whatever' by furculow, that's two times now. I was a bit worried he might be a jester during the first day. And now he just makes it so easy for us to lynch him. He's making powers up then lying about it and not caring. I've just got a nasty feeling he's playing right into our hands and it's more beneficial for him.

I mentioned that on D1. I think it's very likely Furcolow is some funny 3rd party role. His play just doesn't seem to follow any particular pro-town or pro-scum agenda. I still think he makes most sense as a silence target.

[Artem]

Ah! So good guys assassinate and poison, and bad guys remove from bunkers?

"Shot in the head" flavor is very typical to a vigilante role. Also, I never said "bad guys" remove from bunkers. I said it's probably a 3rd party role.

But this is exactly what I mean... when the day first started ThAd posted this:

It sounded like llama might have been the vig target, i.e. redcoyote's target.

Other than that... ghostwriter anyone?

which were exactly my thoughts reading through (RC vig'd Llama, and somebody else targeted GW). I think this is a major town-tell in ThAd's favor, because this scenario makes the most sense from a townie's point of you.

Then comes Feysal with this post:

I would guess that being poisoned is the Soviet kill flavor and being assassinated the US, since real life Soviet assassins are known to have preferred poison. I know RedCoyote did not say much about GhostWriter/hohum yesterday, but that slot would make most sense as a vigilante target, and the other two as scum targets.

RC didn't say zip about GW at the end of D1 (RC was pushing for a GW lynch at one point, but it was much earlier in D1), so it doesn't "make most sense" for him to shoot GW. If anything, other players were calling for a bullet through gonnano's head. However, if scum shot Llama, they would know for sure that RC didn't target him. So to scum, it "makes most sense" that RC targeted GW.

I really do think we're dealing with 2 scum teams, just by the virtue that quite a few players seem to be sticking to RC not targeting Llama. I think most of those players

know

that RC did not target Llama, because.... well.. they did.

---------------

i missed this in artem's recent post, but i did not ever hint at multiple scumteams, and if you took anything that way, you need to learn how to read

There could be people from the US who win when all other US players are eliminated, someone from the US who wins when the Soviets are eliminated, or some Soviets may win when everyone else is eliminated but their faction. I don't know what the setup is, but we cannot dismiss traitorous/survival roles unless I missed something.

I guess it's not really an explicit statement about 2 scum team, but I understand this is what Feysal was referring to in his #1233.

---------------

Some players are definitely coming across as having a lot of information, Feysal being at the top of that list. I guess the question is whether it's really good deduction skills or actual inside knowledge.

[Artem]

Last time I checked, SKs weren't anything BUT bad guys.

Last time I checked, SKs weren't the only role qualified as "3rd party".

I don't like Artem's clarification follow up post 1214. It is such a minor thing to clarify with a completely ridiculous suggestion (mass claiming) that the only reason he would want to clarify that is to cover his bases.

After some of the stuff you posted during D1, I kinda wrote you off as somebody who's not comfortable with the whole multiple-scenarios / beliefs / probability thing.

We are playing in a partial information game paradigm. I

will

consider hypothetical, yet plausible scenarios and I

will

clarify what I think was an imprecise statement from me, because this is how I think.

If you find that scummy, fine; just know that your frequentist is cramping my Bayesian style. (wut?)

-------------------

Also, I get the feeling that the current DP wagon is primarily pressure (most likely from scum) to get DP to full claim, rather than being based on DP actually being scummy.

[Artem]

Prod received. Will post content later today.

[Artem]

Alright, I'm all caught up and don't really have much to say.

I've kinda lost the interest in the game. I think I figured out who the townies are and want to systematically lynch the others, starting with smarg. Unfortunately, I don't really have the attention span or the stamina to put together proper cases to convince others.

So, I think I'm just going to replace out. Thanks for the game, guys. Was entertaining for a while.

Sotty: Can I be replaced please?