New Designer Mafia (Victor(s) are crowned)

[Fishythefish]

Still mostly on V/LA - back tomorrow. I think narrowing down scum fakeclaims is a good thing.

Roles I submitted:
- VT
- Graverobber - if you target someone who dies, you get their power for a day. If they have no power, you get their vote, which is cast by PM. You can't rob people your faction kills.
- Not telling. A role which I haven't seen on this site, but it's probably been run and is similar to a reasonably well known role. There's a reason I'm not telling.

[Fishythefish]

It is impossible that Oli is the detonator unless
a) the scum have a role which removes the vote from X if they vote for Y
b) tajo is scum with Oli
c) tajo is willing to claim submitting a role that doesn’t exist in order to save Oli from a possible lynch
I find the last assumption extremely unlikely, and so I find it extremely unlikely Oli is the detonator. In fact, it even needs one more assumption - that the same scumteam includes the player who submitted the real vote stopping role (otherwise said player would counterclaim). This explanation is far too convoluted to be true.

No roles from me that could cause an unexpected votecount today.

This wagon is horrible. Other than tajo's vote, it's based 100% around the detonator, which Oli clearly isn't. I think IS and Furcolow come off worst here. IS is pushing extremely hard, and just doesn't seem to care that Oli's basically confirmed as another role. This looks like fake certainty to me. Furc was very unwilling to confirm Oli's claim, and is another person who wants to believe Oli is scum for pretty much no reason.

VOTE: IS

[Fishythefish]

@IS: "If it isn't Oli, then who is it?". I don't know. I don't see that there's any way of telling at the moment. The

only

thing we can be sure of is that it

isn't

Oli. You are placing a ridiculous burden of proof on people who disagree with your position, which just doesn't make sense.

@zoraster: a functional fake claim would not be backed up by tajo, as well as risking a counterclaim from whoever submitted the role.

[Fishythefish]

@IS: "If it isn't Oli, then who is it?". I don't know. I don't see that there's any way of telling at the moment. The

only

thing we can be sure of is that it

isn't

Oli. You are placing a ridiculous burden of proof on people who disagree with your position, which just doesn't make sense.

@zoraster: a functional fake claim would not be backed up by tajo, as well as risking a counterclaim from whoever submitted the role.

Well, I don't want to get to side-tracked, but it seems to me that'd be exactly the case. A functional fake claim would almost have to be something that was submitted by someone else but didn't have a large amount of power yet did work.

Oh, I see. You'd still need the massive coincidence of there being two roles that would stop X voting for Y.

[Fishythefish]

tajo claimed the Yosarianite creation.

[Fishythefish]

ender's vote for zoraster is very off. I don't see how anyone could think using youtube is scumtell. Looks like ender forcing a scumread.

I haven't yet watched Plum's video; I'll do that tomorrow.

I dislike dana's 283 attack on IS. Some odd points in there. Attacks IS for changing his mind, and for only trying to find one scum at a time. I think IS is very, very wrong about the detonator, but these just aren't scumtells. dana casting doubt on the existence of a detonator is also really weird; it's pretty certain that the kill came from a detonator. Just because not many roles explode people during the day, and the chance of two having been submitted are very low. (If someone else did submit such a role, they should definitely be claiming it now.)

@Furcolow: I don't understand at all why you still think Oli is scum. Oli is pretty well confirmed not to be the detonator, and I don't see any other reason to suspect him.

@mod: Is it possible that some roles were altered in their mechanics? Purely hypothetically, could an action triggered by bolding in the thread have been switched to triggering by PM, or vice-versa?

~There were no altered mechanics. Only alterations were asthetic.

[Fishythefish]

That's very interesting. I'd more or less been assume the mechanic was changed to PM.

@Olinea: did you specify that the player must type "detonate", in bold, in the thread, to set off the bomb? Please check the exact wording of your role submission (but don't quote it here).

No explanation I can think currently fits the facts satisfactorily.

[Fishythefish]

That's very interesting. I'd more or less been assume the mechanic was changed to PM.

Interesting, you say. Is that interesting as in you were wrong about me being suspicious for casting doubt on the detonator idea? Or is it just interesting as in you now think Olinea or I has to be the detonator?

Interesting as in I was wrong about you being suspicious for casting doubt on the detonator idea. I'm currently considering a series of very unlikely possibilities, and two unrelated daykilling explodey roles is right up there.

You're assuming way too much here. It is very possible Olinea knows what is happening, and when tajo flips scum, the noose will be around Olinea next if I have any say about it. Catching up, even not as a replacement, it was very, very, scummy when seeing Olinea react to Cooldog right before his death. We can't be sure he isn't the detonator whatsoever. His partner could have used the ability he had on me to make me not able to vote him. It's not confirmed Olinea did that whatsoever; it's all WIFOM. I don't see why you're so easy to dismiss this, considering Olinea's "mafia matchmakers" claim and the death of people I feel were loverized by him. The pieces all fit for me, and I'm beginning to feel like the boy who cried wolf. I'm glad you're questioning him, though, in your next post. The thing that makes me wonder, though, is why were you so up in arms about my suspicion when you, in fact, have questions to him yourself? feels fishy, fish.

Problem is, to explain your lack of vote on Oli you need Oli scum, with someone on Oli's team having a vote that stops Player X voting for Player Y. You need tajo on that scumteam, as well as whoever submitted the role (or it would get counterclaimed) and whoever has it. You need tajo to be prepared to back Oli up to the extend that if Oli flips non-Yosarianite, tajo is an instant lynch. That isn't remotely credible - and applies equally to OliDetonator and OliMatchmaker scenarios.

You keep saying that Oli might be the detonator, for obvious reasons, and that he might be matchmaker (though I've no idea why). But you need to explain the fact that you can't vote Oli, and there really isn't a credible explanation for that.

I disagree with zoraster and DN about IS. I think the ways he's pushing finding the detonator to the exclusion of all else looks like an easy way to avoid actually scumhunting, which is a nice easy position for scum.

@Tasky: about your extra role related information on Oli - without fullclaiming, can you say roughly how good it is? If you have information that dramatically raises the likelihood of Oliscum above average, we'd be mad to lynch elsewhere.

I agree with your assessment of Oli's reaction.

[Fishythefish]

@Olinea: can you confirm that there was no clause in your submitted role about the bomb being passed pregame?

Oli's question should most definitely be answered, if you sent in a day killer with an explodey flavour.

[Fishythefish]

First, role related stuff:
- ender’s claim makes everything make more sense. Someone confirm they created Post Bomber?

@ender:

why did you chose the moment you did to claim? Why not earlier, and why then?
- For people who haven’t (and particularly for those who have hardly posted), I’d still encourage claiming what you submitted. It narrows down the field of potential fakeclaims, which is a good thing. There may well be a point when scum can’t claim their real role because it’s been used scummily.
- To everyone: if there’s a detonator in the game, is there any reason to think they’re town or scum?

People who I have problems with:

Furc

Dislike his unwillingness to confirm Oli; rather like he wants continued pressure on Oli, when the protown thing to do is clearly verify the claim. Then, when a couple of people vote for him, he votes Oli. Feels like Furc always

knew

that was the protown thing to do, and once he was called on his inaction he wanted to appease the town. His explanation for this later is that confirming Oli’s claim was setting up for his wagon to be disbanded, which was counter to Furc’s goal, lynching the scummiest player. In other words, an outright admission that he cares about lynching Oli, not working out what is going on. This rather makes my point:

I am really confused as to what is going on with the Olinea/detonator/populartajo situation, but it is making me suspicious of them.

I don’t think that’s a natural townie reaction to the problem of being really confused about something. It seems that Furc can’t quite work out how to get from the facts to Oli/tajo scummy, but wants to give a scumread anyway. Furc seems content to throw out things that sound like they make Oli scum, while never presenting a coherent view of why he thinks that. He also sheeps the bad WIR vote on tajo. Overall, Furc’s play shows a massive lack of interest in working out who’s scum.

IS

Basically, I think IS is scummy for being so, so wrong about things. This isn’t usually a good scumtell, but here it looks like IS is really being argumentative for the sake of it – I feel he’s deliberately pushing an “I’m so townie I don’t care what you think” line, rather than actually thinking about things.

Olinea

A scummy reaction to Tasky’s gambit. As town, I’d want to address any claimed information saying I was likely scum. As scum, I’d want nobody to be talking about it. Thinks DH is tunneled town rather than scum.

WhenInRome

His 126 stinks. It doesn’t sound like he thinks Olinea detonated the bomb – more like he did something weird, and that that justifies the vote. His vote in 272 is based on a contradiction from tajo that doesn’t exist – what tajo is clearly asking for is whether any submitted roles

other than Yosarianite

that could explain the votecount anomaly.

Xalxe

I was going to say I don’t really support this, because I don’t think the early game IIoA is a good scumtell. But looking at Xalxe, he really hasn’t done much in the way of scumhunting in a lot of posts. It’s not just the massclaim count; his posts generally are pretty fluffy. Who is scum, Xalxe?

Deathnote

I dislike his reaction to Xalxe, when Xalxe’s wagon was building early on for IIoA. Votes Xalxe when other people are doing so for reasons, saying “little pressure needed here”. Firstly, it simply wasn’t – Xalxe had a very decent wagon going. More to the point, this distances DN from the actual reasons for voting Xalxe, and undermines the vote itself.

StrangerCoug

WIR’s vote on tajo is bad; sheeping and defending it is worse. Doesn't feel like he's really thinking about the point at all.

Style notes: I applaud the use of videos, and would be happy to see more. I’d encourage dana not to reply inside quotes; it’s hard to read and harder to quote.

UNVOTE: VOTE: Furc

[Fishythefish]

Oh, and Amrun:

Fishy: Some strange conflictions about his/

her

thoughts on IS. Idk.

What are these?

[Fishythefish]

Plum is the one who hinted at being a loverer.

I see all those roles as largely null. They are all usable as scum or town. Post bomber is more powerful as a scum role (your team can make sure it doesn't get blown up), but still works as town (random kills are good; if you are clever and lucky you could get into an argument at the right time). Nullifier looks powerful for either team in lylo (gambits for town, autowin for scum), and meh until then. Loverer has strong uses for either team. In fact, I'd say the use of it here looks a bit more townie; trying to eliminate two not so useful players, rather than linking lynchbait to a scary player.

[Fishythefish]

TBH, I hadn't even thought about the power of his role as scum until your posts made me straighten my thoughts about roles.

We should probably be a little more willing to lynch Oli than other players, particularly when LYLO approaches. Same goes for any role that's better for scum than town. Lylo is a very long way off, and one way another Oli may die or have an obvious alignment before then. I'm definitely not saying Oli should be lynched at this stage.

[Fishythefish]

Deathnote

I dislike his reaction to Xalxe, when Xalxe’s wagon was building early on for IIoA. Votes Xalxe when other people are doing so for reasons, saying “little pressure needed here”. Firstly, it simply wasn’t – Xalxe had a very decent wagon going. More to the point, this distances DN from the actual reasons for voting Xalxe, and undermines the vote itself.

Ehh... If what you say is true, then I would have unvoted Xalxe once I saw it wasn't going anywhere. As it stands, I am still voting him.

Not really. I'm saying it looks like you were pushing an easy wagon which you didn't really believe in. From your posts, it doesn't really look like you think Xalxe is scummy.

[Fishythefish]

@IS: Oli's role plays no significant part in how much I want to lynch him today.

[Fishythefish]

See post 331.

[Fishythefish]

Fishythefish’s Question:

You said that Olinea’s role has nothing to do with the fact that you want him lynched. Why do you want him lynched?

Nope. I said Oli's role has nothing (or very little) to do with how much I want him lynched. At the moment he's vying for second place on my scumlist with a couple of others, I'd say.

Can you explain your DN read in more detail, please? Any other scumreads? How do you feel about Furc?

@Oli: about Tasky's gambit. My thinking here is that as town in your position I would have thought Tasky was either lying or wrong. Either way, I'd be extremely keen to know what he thought I was scum. Why didn't you feel that way?

@SC: you're voting tajo for his supposed contradiction. If you actually read what happened, it's pretty clear that the spirit of his question was "did anyone submit anything other that Yosarianite that could explain theses goings-on?", and so his response of "no" isn't a lie. Also, there's just no scum motivation for the lie - it's confirmed he submitted Yos, and I don't see he'd forget that. He mentioned it in the same post!

[Fishythefish]

I can't reach that video - apparently it's private.

@Oli: thanks. That helps explain things a bit, although it still seems weird to me that you'd be so worried of being accused of rolefishing you were content to let Tasky sit there with false information on you.

[Fishythefish]

I'm around. Content coming later tonight or tomorrow morning.

[Fishythefish]

My unwillingness to vote Olinea was based upon Xalxe and Olinea goading me into doing so when I first was catching up. It just felt wrong.
VOTE: Xalxe
I didn't "know" anything, and I don't. I can only use my head, and follow my heart with my vote.
Your quote just proves that the situation didn't sit right with me. There can't be a case on me.

I can understand that the situation didn't sit right with you, in that it was pretty confusing. What I'm not convinced of is that you could really have had a picture of Oli as scum detonator/loverer from what happened - I don't see how you could have reached that conclusion from the facts unless you really wanted to.

We should probably be a little more willing to lynch Oli than other players, particularly when LYLO approaches. Same goes for any role that's better for scum than town. Lylo is a very long way off, and one way another Oli may die or have an obvious alignment before then. I'm definitely not saying Oli should be lynched at this stage.

if you state we should be more willing to lynch Oli later, why shouldn't that apply to now?
I actually don't like how you constantly repeat how scummy Oli reacted to my gambit but then always find reasons not to vote him.
Possible buddy here.

FoS: Fishy

I find several people scummy to various degrees; Oli is not at the top of that list at the moment. That is why I'm not voting him.

Right now, Oliscum is less scary than the average scumbag. Towards Lylo, Oliscum will become more scary than the average scumbag. So for now I'd treat Oli much like a claimed VT, but nearer Lylo that changes a bit, and I'd be more willing to lynch him than other players.

On follow up points:

If Olineas original response wasn't enough to make me convinced he is scum, then those definitely are:

Is not strong reasoning, and

appears to be more of a gambit than anything else.

I tend to assume everyone is telling the truth when they first start out

-- I had no read on Tasky and figured he actually may have had false information on me -- but what would I do in response, say "uh, no you don't"? Asking where he got it is rolefishing and seeing as how people reacted negatively to my early claim I wasn't going to push the envelope; rather, I'd just hope Tasky would realize his PR is fallible.

contradiction.
on the one hand you say how not believable my original statement was (you even seemed to know it was a gambit) and on the other hand you want to make me believe you believed my statement but thought I had some false information.
btw, false PR-information are quite rare, and the worst thing a townie could to against them is do nothing, as they will just hurt the town.

This is a decent point, and Oli doesn't really address it. The first quote seems to be saying Oli read the gambit as such, and the second that Tasky was a real PR. Oli's explanation that he was seeing both sides of the coin isn't massively convincing; each of these quotes would make me think that this was Oli's clear opinion on Tasky's gambit at the time.

@Oli: when you saw Tasky's statement about you, did you think it was a gambit or that he had real information? Why did you say both?

[Fishythefish]

OK.

UNVOTE: VOTE: Xalxe

Fluffy posting, with occasional unconvincing attempts at scumhunting when under fire (the question post stands out here). Nothing he does makes me believe he's trying to work out who's scum. This is a good lynch.

[Fishythefish]

Hmmmm. I vote Xalxe, and then I'm immediately joined by some pretty unsavoury company. I'm having none of it.

UNVOTE: VOTE: Furc

Compounding his horrible play with a horrible wagon hop.

[Fishythefish]

VOTE: Xalxe

I liked this as a lynch until all the scummy people jumped on after me. With a flip of "Mafia C", this no longer troubles me. Today Xalxe seems to be trying to egg on the SC suspicion without actually doing anything.

[Fishythefish]

@zoraster: your Time Travelling Killer? If so, the mechanic would have chesskid and cooldog retain their alignments?

Real post tomorrow/Monday at latest.

[Fishythefish]

@zoraster: your Time Travelling Killer? If so, the mechanic would have chesskid and cooldog retain their alignments?

I don't think zoraster ever discussed the mechanic of the TTK, or how it functions, so why are you mentioning it like you know how it works?

Just making a fairly obvious deduction - this looks very much like someone went back and changed history. Since ender was now killed N0, he never set his bomb, and cooldog and chesskid survived. TTK fits perfectly as a role which explains this result; I'd like to check it doesn't have a dodgy alignment changing component.

[Fishythefish]

Xalxe is still likely scum. Serious active lurking early on. When pushed on this, he produced the post where he asks everyone a question; this feels much more like scum forcing some content than town doing something they actually think will be useful. In that post, there’s no lynch Xalxe seems to be keen on, and no particular person he wants to find out more about. When asked about scumreads, he throws out some names without really backing anything up. He throws out

lots

of names, meaning that he doesn’t have to focus too hard on any particular person. It just doesn’t feel like a genuine attempt at finding scum – and nor does anything Xalxe has done.

@Xalxe: which of DN’s posts do you find scummy? Do you have any other reads you can explain?

VOTE: Xalxe

Is there a good summary of the case on DN around? He doesn’t look particularly scummy to me.

[Fishythefish]

Quick note as I'm doing further research:

DeathNote submitted a Jester role. Could Ender have received it? Is making up a role conceivable for him, in his meta? If he's jester, he's doing a good job so far (imho). Still, he could have pushed pressure when he got some votes earlier. Just throwing it out there.

DeathNote himself is giving me scumpings. Several times, he asks, "Is this scummy? Is that scummy?" in an open-ended form. It's strange to me and I honestly think he's asking for behaviors to avoid while passing it off as flippant.

The subtle insertion of "we" when he's referring to a group that suspects someone he did not suspect was something someone else pointed out and that didn't occur to me, but I might as well restate it.

Also, complete lack of scumhunting from DeathNote.

On to ISO someone else.

This was my very first case on DN in day 1. After that, it continues to go downhill. He flat out REFUSES to refute anything, quickhammered (on scum, but quickhammers are still bad, in light of "Mafia C"), does not scumhunt, and in general is just rolling happily in anti-town play.

ThAd and some others have also brought up different, and valid, points against DN.


This is for fishythefish, who asked for a case summary, but also for DN himself since he seems to be too lazy to read.

- Lack of scumhunting is fair, and a point against DN.
- Refusal to defend yourself just isn't a good scumtell for me; it's not like it helps you avoid attention.
- On day 1 (and day 2) we got lynches at smaller numbers of players on a BW than declared (possibly the "Risky Super voter" explains both; certainly explains day 2. So DN wasn't quickhammering, from his point of view. Actually, it's extraordinary if DN hasn't corrected you himself here; if I were town, and accidentally hammered when I thought I was just voting, it would be a big deal, and not something I'd forget about quickly. @DN: why didn't you mention this?

[Fishythefish]

End of Day Vote Count

Furcolow (9) – Nocmen, populartajo, Xalxe, DemonHybrid, Fishythefish, danakillsu, StrangerCoug, Internet Stranger, DeathNote
Xalxe (6) – zoraster, Zajnet, Sevei, ender241, WhenInRome, Furcolow
Olinea (1) – Tasky
DeathNote (1) – Amrun
DemonHybrid (1) – brokenscraps
Tasky (1) – Olinea

Not Voting (2) – Thadmiral, Plum

*Modscene is correct before someone messages me about it being wrong

There were 21 alive, it was 11 to lynch. Your vote shouldn't have been a hammer. Did you think it was when you cast it?

[Fishythefish]

This game needs more from more people.

DH calling Furc a VI does fit well with him being Furc's partner. Plum kill is interesting - she was known to be a spent loveriser, so I'm guessing whoever killed her is fairly likely to have been a suspect. Xalxe fits well here. Did Plum suspect DH? Can't find it. I don't see the backtrack on tajo and vote for SC as particularly scummy.

[Fishythefish]

And whats the point of picking them as your love subjects anyways? Just so you can have a nighttime QT?

Are you asking your lovers for information? Oh man, if I was scum and had that role, the first I would do is trick people into giving me targets to kill or trick them into revealing role info.

Although, bonus points for warning people that they will look guilty to investigations.

Considering the submitter knows the role, I wouldn't award these bonus points.

@zoraster: where is DN picking and choosing which points to defend against?

Xalxe remains an excellent lynch. Hooray!

@Xalxe: my guess on why Furc died at 9 votes is due to the role "Risky Super Voter".

In fact, that's worth knowing.

To whoever submitted Risky Super Voter

: does it fully explain the dodgy end of day votecounts on both days 1 and 2? It would be good to know whether we have other voting shenanigans going round.

[Fishythefish]

I'm V/LA, until Saturday at the latest.

[Fishythefish]

Betting DH is town. Killing ender was extremely protown, resurrecting two confirmed town. Sevei was a reasonable scumhunting kill.

@zoraster

: can you confirm that the players who come back from the dead don't change their alignments?

I missed the Zajnet case. His claim is null in its content. I don't like the early claim at all, but it doesn't make me think he's scum. Reaction to Plum's death - I don't think tells like that actually work. A couple of useless speculative questions don't seem like a scumtell.

On the other hand, he's not really done much all game, and is certainly very possible scum.

@Zajnet: who is scum?

I've been reading, and found a good few town reads (and more "not C" or "not B" reads). I'll look closely at the people who are left later this evening.

[Fishythefish]

Back, reading.

[Fishythefish]

Sorry for my second V/LA, which was for unexpected and unwanted reasons. My access should be fine from now on.

Fishy, what do you mean you "missed" the case on zajnet?

I saw lots of votes on Zajnet, but none of the reasons for them had stuck in my mind - I didn't really know what the wagon was about.

Look at cooldogs post, CK. He specifically mentions they are two people on the last line. I think the vote count is right.

Right now im waiting for Tasky and Zoraster.

Looking at Fishy's ISO, he said he was on V/LA until "Saturday" after the 16th, which is the 19th. And he posted already on the 22nd. This is too late in the game to be screwing around and im not taking ANY chances on some scum screwing us over via unknown flippery or massive endgame lurking.

So unless Fishy told the mod something in private, Fishy is massively lurking.

IGMEOY: Fishy

I don't tend to post much when the thread is locked. Sorry if that's a problem.

Tasky looks like a good lynch. I don't have much to add to what other people have said, really. There's nothing in his iso except for tunnelling on Oli, and trying to start massclaim today - which more looks like an excuse to claim than anything else, and he hasn't exactly pushed it. If there are no objections I'll probably hammer tomorrow, if things still look the same when it isn't 2:19am.

[Fishythefish]

VOTE: Tasky

Still looks like a good lynch in the morning.

[Fishythefish]

My access is going to be pretty poor this weekend. WiR is Mafia C (look at his day 1 play), but we can't afford to lynch him. IS is Mafia A, and his kill flavour is "shoot" - the people who get "shot" have a tendency to suspect IS. His partner is most likely ThAd, but could be zoraster. Amrun looks like town.

[Fishythefish]

Hopping all over the place to save Furc, which stopped totally after Furc went down.

Lack of kills could be just crazy roles at work/crosskills. We have Wiped/Shot/Blasted. No A would be bastard modding, in a game with no suggestion of that.

[Fishythefish]

I feel that naming two factions "B" and "C" is blatantly misleading, and simply unfair in a game which isn't supposed to have that kind of modding. DH as a town kill? If so, I despair of that person.

I haven't been V/LA

that

much. I missed three days (which unfortunately turned out to be nearly the whole of a very short day), and my V/LA looks longer in ISO because of night, and then I missed a weekend. Both absences were sitewide (they were the same in two now completed games - I was scum in one and town in one). "My excuse not to respond to pressure"? I'm going to be posting a little today and tomorrow, and will be fully here from Monday. Semi-lurking for 48 hours isn't something that's helpful for scum.

[Fishythefish]

To be fair, though, you're completely right in that I haven't done enough in this game for the last few game days. I will do better from here on.

[Fishythefish]

WOW Fishy, youre just piling on layers upon layers of scumtasticness in one post alone.

First off, it almost sounds like youre deliberately trying to confuse the situation and only giving us partial reads here. You see, we all know scum has all the information but cant let anyone know that, so they try to conjure up what looks like epiphanies while just releasing out known scum information.

I was simply giving a short version of how I see the game. Naturally, I fully intended to flesh it out. It's a big stretch to say that not giving a full case means you are scum with extra info.

Although actually, it doesn't need much fleshing out. Nocmen thought you were "obvscum", and you were top of dana's scumlist. They both got "shot", and they weren't doing anything that would have made any scumbag but you worried of them. You very likely chose those kills (which fits wonderfully well with

lone

IS scum actually, if you lost your only partner day 1. Hmmmm - need to think about that.).

WiR/Furc - well, that's pretty obvious, really. WiR voted a lot on day 1, for everyone under the sun except for Furc, and since then hasn't done much at all. Fits perfectly with a scumbag who was trying to save his partner, and since then trying to slide under the radar.

And you think my statements were so "confusing" and "partial" that I'm scum trying to throw out only half of what I know? Bollocks.

The first obvious one is your insistence on a mafia A. You already got called out on that and now youre trying to make it sound like youre merely speculating on some crazy bastard modding scheme. Im looking through the kills, there just arent enough kills to support the idea and youre trying to dismiss the point that breaks your "theory" with a simple hand wave (like a jedi mind trick) and trying to paint them as inconsequential cross kills. If there really has been an extreme amount of crosskills, then all these scum teams really suck.

Im thinking that Fishy knows more than he is letting on and trying to shepherd us into something that favors fishy (and his scum team?)

Seriously? In this game, we have three kill flavours which have happened at least twice and

don't look like town

, and we have scumteams labelled "B" and "C". And you think it's a weird assumption that there's a Mafia A? Link to any game on this site, ever, with equivalent mod deception which was not flagged pregame as "bastard" or similar. Sure, that means there have been a lot of missed kills, but I see it as way more likely than the alternative. I think it's totally ludicrous to think that's a point against me.

But here's the important bit. Let's imagine IS is being honest here. He thinks there are two scum teams. He thinks I'm B, and that WiR is very likely C. There are 6 players left. Presumably, he thinks the scumteams had 3 players each at the start - so the situation is 3-2-1 in town-C-B.

And he claims he wants to lynch me

. If he believed his own story, that would practically guarantee a town loss - leaving the game 3-2 going into night. He would be all over a WiR lynch.

I'm not saying his story is right at all - I know the bit about me being scum is wrong, and I think he also has the whole setup totally wrong. But if he did believe a word he was saying, and he was town,

he couldn't possibly want to lynch me

. Lynch this lying scumbag.

About my interactions with scum B - first off, IS saying I hemmed and hawwed before hammering Tasky tomorrow. What I did was return from V/LA at 2am, and said "Tasky looks like a good lynch, and I'll hammer him in the morning if that still looks true". I felt too tired to be sure of myself. The next morning I hammered. I don't see how that's scummy. On Xalxe, IS simply lies, saying I only joined in when Xalxe was in trouble. I joined when Xalxe wasn't even the biggest wagon. Go read it.

My inactivity - doing a little timeline:

Mar 10 - my last post day 3
Mar 11 - Xalxe lynched
Mar 15 - day 4 starts
Mar 16-19 my first V/LA
Mar 18 DN lynched
Mar 22 Day 5 starts
Mar 22 Zajnet lynched
Mar 25 Day 6 starts
Mar 24-28 my second V/LA
Then I came back, posted at 2am about liking a Tasky lynch, and hammered him in the morning. So really, this game has been moving simply absurdly fast. I've had 2 3/4 day long V/LAs, and that means that I've hardly been in the game since day 3. Obviously that's partly my fault, but look at the times I could actually have posted in the game - it's unreasonable to call my play lurking. It sucks that I haven't done anything since day 3, but I've just not had the opportunity to.

@WiR: your comment on the QT; when I said that in there, your response was "fair enough". Why's that?

If WiR had adequately addressed my concerns, bringing them up in here would have been a bad plan. Since he didn't, it wasn't. Also, if my motivation had been to avoid posting a FoS in here, why have I posted that FoS in here? Why would I even post it in there?

TL;DR: please read it. I think IS's case on me is incredibly poor, and I look forward to hearing what everyone thinks of IS's case on me and this response.

[Fishythefish]

So, in IS's world, we have

Town: IS/X/Y
Scum B: Fishy
Scum C: WiR/Z

Now, it may sound all very well to kill me, reducing nightkills by 1. But it's an autoloss! Town are 3/2 up going into night - so scum C have won. Now, if town have a kill they

could

win. But it's still ridiculously unlikely. Far, far, far better to lynch WiR. Town

needs

these nightkills.

Same reasoning is why I don't think we should lynch WiR today - we have

Town: Fishy/X/Y
Scum C: WiR
Scum A: IS/Z

So IS is the lynch.

Personally, I think NKs are played pretty straight on this site - precisely because everyone cries "WIFOM" if you try to analyse them. Two people strongly suspecting the same person, and dieing in the same way, is good evidence for me that he is scum. Although right now I'm actually worrying that it makes him likely to be

lone

scum - in which case he is C, and we can't afford to lynch him.

Look, if my lurking was a strategy, it would strategy that consisted of two sitewide V/LAs while I was in other games, and then not posting for literally a total of about 24 RL hours while I was here and we were in day. The V/LA bits are

verifiably not my choice

- look at my (lack of) activity in other games. There's simply been no point when I've had access to mafiascum and not posted here for any significant length of time - and you can

know

that! I

have

been unfortunate with timing, and there's no way you can doubt that if you look at my posts in all games.

[Fishythefish]

@ThAd: why do you think I'm scum?

[Fishythefish]

I can play this game too!!
Using Fishy's scenario:

Town: IS/X/Y
Scum C: WiR
Scum A: Fishy/Z

So Fishy is the lynch.

Fishy is only building a case on me on extremely circumstantial evidence. Thats just plain awful. I been so obv. town this whole game it gets to the point its ridiculous for you to even start this nonsense against me. Technically you could paint anyone into this spot the way youre building your case.

Fishy has a slot to fill in his little chart and he just so happened to pick me.

We already lynched Tasky who was trying the very same strategy Fishy is employing just a day ago. Lurk lurk lurk, come up with some lame v/la excuse, then come out guns blazing at crunch time: "Oh hey im now the people's champion. Here is some great tasting WiFOM for all of you, drink up!"

I think I did some math wrong, we really dont have enough townies left to endure another day after all. So if Fishy doesnt want to lynch WiR, there has to be another reason. I assumed it was because he was the last Team B since CK pretty much had admitted to killing CMAR with the blasting and attributed those kills to CK. Now with CK dead and no blasting, that scenario was fitting. But if that was true, then the town is pretty much lost then.

So lets do assume that we have a complete fail team A that cant kill worth a crap. Looking at the way things are shaping up then Fishy's insistence on not lynching WiR means that right now he needs a winning scenario.

Town: IS/X/Y
Scum C: WiR
Scum A: Fishy/Z

Or even:
(Im starting to like this one)

Town: IS/X/Y
Scum C: Z
Scum A: Fishy/WiR

Or even worse:

Town: IS
Scum C: X/Y
Scum B: WiR
Scum A: Fishy/Z

The worst:
Town: Fishy/IS/X
Scum C: WiR
Scum A: Y/Z

Either way, the most damning point of all is the way Fishy is trying to paint us into one scenario. Im trying to figure out why. Why try to get us to not lynch WiR no matter what? Why fill in a specific spot in his little chart with me, someone who has been actively searching for scum all game (Without the lurking) and not someone like say Admiral, or Zoraster? Fishy is really truly saying that I am the scummiest of them all based circumstantial WiFOMy (at best) kills based on whatever opinions he thought about dead people? Hey Fishy, do you know who else was on my ass? Xalxe was on my ass too. Is he just an exception? Did you forget who youre playing here with? Dont you think that a lot of come people dont come after me every game? (This includes you now)

The fact that you choose to come after me instead of some of the others is the best evidence of all. Add that the whole WiR "Dont lynch him", coupled with the painted corner strategy of yours. Im now thoroughly convinced that youre scum trying to pull off a manipulating ploy here at the end. The scenarios dont even matter anymore. They are all WiFOMy now. You pushing for a specific one right off the bat implicates scum trying to manipulate the situation for his needs.

Its time to lynch Fishy.

Wait,

what

? IS is just totally and completely changing his argument. He says that there probably isn't a Mafia A - and me thinking there is one is his

main point against me

- and that I'm Mafia C who needs lynching. I point out that this is a steaming pile of horse manure, and so he just makes a totally different case, which seems to be the following:

- I've lurked. I've discussed this - IS doesn't seem interested. "A lame V/LA excuse?" FFS, if I disappear from

3

games for a few days, it's pretty clear that's not an excuse to not participate in this one. Please look at my posts from the whole site, and list all the RL times in the game you think I was deliberately not posting in here.
- I think IS is scum, based party on NK analysis. Also, on his play today - he's clearly trying to get me lynched without giving a rat's ass for the truth. I don't see that he's been anything like obv town at any point in the game.
- I'm trying to push one particular scenario. Well, as I've said, I think it's pretty certain we have a Mafia A. I think WiR is pretty certainly Mafia C. I think IS is likely Mafia A. So yeah, I have some opinions on the game, and I'm trying to convince people they are right. How on

earth

is that scummy?

@IS: Xalxe thought you were scum, and Xalxe was scum. That doesn't make you town, in the slightest, at all, to any extent whatsoever. Aggressive play from you isn't at all a towntell (we've been on a scumteam together which shows that), and in multiscum you would be scumhunting

anyway

.

IS seems to start from the premise "Fishy is scum with an ulterior motive for leaving WiR arrive", and arrive at the conclusions "Fishy is scum". @IS: what don't you find convincing about my actual reasons - I think we have 3 scum factions, WiR is C but if we lynch him we lose.

So. Whatever you think of IS's new case on me, look at the way he changed it in every aspect when I rubbished his old logic, and in doing so contradicted himself completely on the subject of Mafia A. This is not the action of a player who is thinking about whether they are attacking scum or town. Just read IS's arguments carefully. They contain no substance beyond calling me out for lurking and OMGUS.

@ThAd: IMO, the NK(s) can be a powerful way to find scum - scum have a massive interest in killing people who suspect them. When two players who strongly suspect someone die, that someone is much, much more likely than average to have killed them. Particularly in the current site meta, where NK analysis is considered automatically flawed and/or scummy (as

perfectly

exemplified by the reaction to my post today). It's enough to make me want to lynch him - though I will see if I can find anything in IS's play that shows he's scum when I get a good chunk of time to give to the game (should be tomorrow). I've discussed my lack of activity elsewhere - it consists of sitewide V/LAs and this game move ridiculously fast - have you got any comments on that?

[Fishythefish]

Actually, some of the above is a little unfair on IS - I wrote that far too fast and rather strawmanned his first case on me, which allowed me to be B

or

A - I hadn't really registered the latter. I've been trying to play this game a bit too hastily today.

The case on me is still BS - but IS's rethink isn't

quite

as brazen and awful as I thought. However, he has still quietly dropped what he seemed to think was a very likely scenario, and the one he based his vote on - me B, Furc C - from his list of possibilities not because of any new evidence, but because it doesn't fit with the lynch he wants.

[Fishythefish]

If for some ungodly reason llama is truly screwing with us and not including a mafia A, then fish is the last B teamer and LLama has fucked us anyways.

And IS completes his reversal from "Fishy is scum for assuming Mafia A exist" to "Mafia A exist".

Fishy: Admitting you strawmanned a case doesn't make it better.

I made an accidental strawman, because I hadn't been reading carefully enough, and I realised my mistake. I think admitting that immediately is

much

better than letting the wrong statement stand. Anyway, it doesn't much difference to the substance of my post.

@IS: what is my "white knight act", and

why

is coming after you and

correctly

not wanting to lynch the obvious C-scum an indicator that I am scum?

[Fishythefish]

@Amrun: you seem convinced I'm scum, and I really have no idea at all why. Please explain? Is there anything I've said or done in this game you'd like me to explain?

I think you are being rather silly in disbelieving in Mafia A. I'll repeat the evidence:
- Calling two mafiates "B" and "C" is outright bastard modding - and there's no indication of that.
- We have three kill flavours with no explanation, all of which look antitown - "blasted" is the only even possible townkill, but DH is still a hugely unlikely townkill.
I just don't see how you can get two mafiates out of that - can you explain what you think the mod was up to, and why town would kill someone who resurrected two confirmed townies?

IS's rhetoric here really doesn't mean anything. He says I'm trying to "paint you into a single scenario". That literally means "trying to persuade people of what I think is true" - A exists, WiR is C, IS is A. That's all. He hasn't explained why trying to persuade you of that that is unreasonable, or makes me scum. Apart from blatant OMGUS - "I can't believe you'd attack such a shining town as me" - that's the entirety of his case.

IS has a habit of quietly dropping points when they're criticised, and his posts read well. That makes him hard to argue against. But

please

, read the arguments carefully - he's pushing this lynch based off fresh air and bullshit. Read how his arguments change, and read how he never responds to

anything

I say. This guy is scum, and I am

not

.

Looking at IS's play through the game, there's not much there that stands out until today. He spends a good few days just tunnelling on Xalxe. Which was right, of course, but doesn't really tell us much. He threw out a token "a lurker is probably scum too" list at one point. I don't like the way he tries to undermine our role-related confirmed and near confirmed town - chesskid, CoolDog (resurrected townies) and DH (who brought them back). I think it's very much in line with the scum's interests to stop people trusting each other like that. He's always very much willing to

suspect

people based on roles, even when it doesn't make much sense (Oli, dana, Plum), but hates it when people look like town because of their role.

@zoraster:

if you are town, we need you here very badly.

@ThAd: why do you think IS is town?
@WiR: other than that thing in the QT, what are your reasons for thinking I'm scum? I responded to what you said about the QT - any further comment on that?

[Fishythefish]

"B" and "C" are just names, but they are names that heavily imply "A". I would see calling your factions "B" and "C" as an outright lie on the part of the mod.

I agree that Blasted, or any of the others for that matter, could be a SK kill. The problem of only two kills is there either way - only a 2-shot vig or similar helps with that (speaking of which, it's a long shot but -

if there is a limited shot vig who's kills are all gone, they should absolutely and definitely claim that now

). It agree that for either of those, we must have had a fair few coincidences - which is more likely than usual in a game like this, with loads of roles out there.

I'm sure you can see that discounting the possibility of A scum even just for today is too much if it leads to the wrong lynch. And I think it

does

lead to the wrong lynch - either me as B scum or WiR as C scum. My lynch is game losing, and if I'm right about A so is WiR's.

You say that if there is no A, I am scum by "PoE and associative tells". PoE - I was going to question this, but actually yeah. PoE would make me pretty likely to be B scum, if it existed. What are these "associative tells" that make me look like B scum?

Re: lurking. Have you looked at my sitewide activity in the times when I was V/LA? It

proves

that I wasn't intentionally lurking - I don't think anyone would fall inactive in three games in order to lurk effectively in one. Defending myself today doesn't change that at all.

[Fishythefish]

Fishy: then who do you want to lynch besides IS, since ThAd and I think he's twn and won't support his lynch? Is zoraster a good compromise?

Regardless of what you think of me, what do you think of IS's attacks on me today, and my responses? I really think they're pretty awful from him.

At the moment I think I prefer a ThAd lynch - for one thing he seems enormously uninquisitive during the IS/Fishy fight today. ThAd is clearly happy to stay out of the limelight here - giving brief reasons for me being scum, and not replying when I responded, and spouting IS's own propaganda about how shiny his play has been. Feels very much like scum who can practically see the finish line, and doesn't want to do anything dangerous. So, at the moment my thinking is:

IS (very likely A scum)
ThAd (2nd most likely A scum)
zoraster (3rd most likely A scum)
WiR (very likely C scum - but only a good lynch if I'm somehow wrong about everything/role craziness saves us)
Amrun (likely town)
Fishy (obviously)

Let's have one more go at convincing you that A scum is likely, or at the very least it's crazy to rule it out for the day - because I'm struggling to see how we are going to get a good lynch without that. Here's why there is probably A scum:

1. Have you ever seen a game with two mafiates called "B" and "C", or "2" and "3"? If you saw this naming system in a setup, or in RL, you'd assume that there was an A. Anything else is outright misleading from the mod. If he wanted to name them so we couldn't work anything out, he could have used something without an order - say "Sicilian" and "Roman" (or w/e).

Even if you don't agree with that:

2. There are 3 kill flavours. None of them is plausibly town - a vig would

never

kill the guy who has been proven to bring townies back from the dead. So we have 3 antitown factions.
3. The main argument against two mafiates (AFAIC) is the lack of kills. But having fewer mafiates doesn't

help

explain the missed kills! If we have a vig, we still missed loads of kills (and no 2-shot vig would wait until nights 4 and 5 if he had 2 shots). If we have a SK, we still missed loads of kills. Whatever the setup, we missed loads of kills. That's kind of surprising, but it

isn't

an argument against 3 mafiates unless

something else explains it

.

[Fishythefish]

Which bits of IS's analysis do you agree with? You haven't said much about me being scum except for my lurking - which I really think I've demonstrated was just bad luck.

I'll have a good look over zoraster now. My memory is that I liked his play early on, and then he stopped playing the game.

A nerfed SK? SK isn't exactly an overpowered role to start with. And if you are coming up with convoluted explanations like that, why not go for the simpler explanation?

I suppose that if you don't like point 1. of my reasoning, it's possible that we are in 2:2:1:1 Town:C:B:SK; there's nothing else to stop the third flavour being SK, in which case the mafiates were probably 3:3 to begin with. But if that's the case, we're buggered anyway.

[Fishythefish]

I agreed with IS' analysis of your late hops on the wagon with both Xalxe and Tasky - which were the associative tells I was talking about early.

I've been thinking about zoraster as a serial killer A, and I think it could work... I mean, it's definitely not too strange to think that his kills got buggered the first couple of nights, since there were more roles in action then. And he's been pretty inactive. Let's say he missed a night?

Along with his weird "third party" slip that I can't believe I missed in the beginning of the game, I could see this.

There was no late wagon hop on Xalxe! As I've pointed out, that was a downright lie by IS (and one that he never bothered to defend). On Tasky; yeah, I was late to that party, because I was V/LA. IS has said a

lot

more than that about me; what do you think of the rest of it?

Oh, FFS, IS. I was

asked

who I'd like to lynch other than you. Should I not give my reads when asked? Where on earth have I given "analysis that makes zora and ThAd very likely scum"? That is yet another simple and barefaced lie.

I thought the shooting NKs pointed to you as scum. Now, I am sure you are scum, after your frankly deranged attack on me; you are lieing and changing your story at every turn to achieve my lynch.

@Amrun, ThAd, zoraster, WiR (yes, even WiR - it's in your interests to lynch scum today, whether you're scum C or town): IS is snowing this town with lies. Please. Read his posts today. Read my responses. Then do it again. This guy is scum. He couldn't give a rat's ass about my alignment. He needs to be lynched.

@Amrun: I wouldn't claim here until 4 people were ready for my lynch, and I didn't feel I had anything more to defend myself with. At the moment, I don't think there are 4 people ready for my lynch now, and I sure as hell aren't done defending myself.

Reread zoraster. While he was here, I don't see anything I dislike too much in his play. He clearly isn't scum with Xalxe/Tasky. Could be scum with Furc, though not in the league of WiR. Definitely an ok candidate for A scum.

[Fishythefish]

@Amrun: wait a sec. Aren't your professed reads totally inconsistent with wanting my lynch? If it's 2 C scum, 1 B scum left, wanting the B scum lynched would be suicidal.

The only way IS managed to square wanting my lynch with anything like reality was his totally and scummy reversal from "there is no A scum - if there is we've lost anyway" through "there is A scum - if there isn't we've lost away" to "there is A scum". Why are you happy to call for my claim and lynch when from your reads it guarantees a C scum win?

[Fishythefish]

Amrun - the scenario where I'm Mafia B is simple, but in it

lynching me would be a town loss

. Simple does not mean good.

Similarly WiR's lynch is an autoloss (barring role shenanigans) if Mafia A exists, so I'm not happy to lynch him unless it's him or me.

OK, I'm going to shut up now until we hear what zoraster has to say. This game needs a fresh voice.

@zoraster:

today is an excellent day to read, and is not far from being self contained.

[Fishythefish]

3:3? That's one place we really can't be. It looks like it's one of:

1. 3T:2A:1C
2. 3T:2C:1B (+viggy type stuff)
3. 2T:2C:1B:1SK

In 2 and 3, WiR lynch is optimal (as far as I can tell, we're unanimous on him being scum C). But I think 1 is probably where we actually are.

[Fishythefish]

IS continues to talk nonsense. He's trying to push my lynch, and zoraster thinks I'm town, so he's automatically my buddy. zoraster thinks there's no Mafia A - so that means we're Mafia A together. This is 100% confirmation bias - anything IS can find that fits in any way with his BS scenario, he jumps on and states like there was some kind of evidence for it. He's also prepared to lie and produce twisted logic to do it - he doesn't explain

why

having a townread is ridiculous (it's not), and he says that zoraster's townread on me is the only one in the game - which is simply untrue. I think Amrun is town; Amrun thinks ThAd and IS are town; ThAd thinks IS is town. He makes out that zoraster's townread on me is levels more certain than anyone else's - that may be true (and I certainly wouldn't complain), but there's nothing in zora's posts that says it - all he says is that I "look town".

[Fishythefish]

That would be a hammer then. Here's hoping I'm wrong

[Fishythefish]

Why did the game end?

[Fishythefish]

Fair enough.

GG all. Yesterday was rather surreal - fighting over a lynch when there's only one town player in the game. And lynching him.

[Fishythefish]

Yeah, Amrun played a great game. I wondered about him yesterday - he seemed reasonable, but I was just amazed he was taking IS's side - but my existing townread was stronger.

For completeness, I missed my night 1 action because at that stage I didn't know I had a kill (in fact, I also didn't know I was BP until night 1 - until then I thought I was a Macho SK with no immunities and no kill, with a voting power that wouldn't be useful until endgame). I doubt that affected the game much