Metropolis: Revisited [Game Over]

[KageLord]

/confirm

Doubt immediate breakage is possible, but I'm not adverse to a good strategy.

[KageLord]

Vote: Toogeloo

First strike with "gut" reasoning is bull. Bad town play or scum play.

[KageLord]

On the Wraith issue: Being against game-breaking is not a scum tell. Other than that stuff he hasn't said much, so I have no read on him personally.

I think Toogeloo's strike wasn't scummy. Acting impulsively is a null-tell. The people jumping all over him for it I find more scummy, CKD/Hresz/KageLord being prime examples. KageLord's vote post was ridiculously vague.

Kage, which do you think it is? Bad town play, or a scummy move? The vote implies that it's the latter, but it seems to me like you just mentioned the first so you'd have an excuse for if/when he flips town.

UNVOTE: Wraith
VOTE: KageLord

I still suspect Wraith, though - not just cause he's worrying about the setup/gamebreaking, but because he's done nothing else worth mentioning except chide Toogeloo for the strike (which is an easy way to buy yourself town points).

Okay, so first question: What do you think of Toog's strike now? Still think he was "acting impulsively" and thus a null-tell?

To answer your question: I don't know which it was. The "excuse for if/when he flips town" thing is bs. You can say that for pretty much anything I say (as my playstyle is not to fake being sure about everything). For proof, check out my town games and see that that same thing has been said to me in all of them that I remember (even when my read was dead-on). If he is lynched and he flips town and I was one of the people to strike him, I bear full responsibility for being wrong.

Also, votes in this game mean almost nothing. It is simply a way to keep track of who people find the scummiest (and on page 3, the reason for Toog was as good as any I could see). In fact, I think that we should require everyone to have a vote placed. It's an easy way to require everyone to pick a top scumread at all times.

Toog is being obstinate and dense, but honestly I don't see scum doing something so blatantly anti-town. I'm filing him under "to-be-ignored," much like ABR is.

I don't get how saying "it's a dumb scum strat" (paraphrasing here) is a real defense of Toog's actions. Wouldn't "it's a dumb town strat" be an equal attack against it? All it says is that it was a dumb move either way. And since Toog wasn't so dumb in the other game I played with him, my best guess is that Toog-scum made the move hoping for one of two results: 1. People agree and town becomes disorganized. 2. People react mostly how they did end up reacting ("Toog is dumb. Let's ignore him and look at other people."). Isn't being ignored ideal for scum?

The chances are high as hell that both the players to your left and right are scum.

Exactly the reason why allowing a majority of players to control how we strike is a BAD IDEA. Voting serves no purpose this game other than to allow civilians to be manipulated. I did fully expect backlash though, hence the reason I stated the RDS was going to end with my Strike.

As I said before, it was a gut shot, and with the amount of anti-town in the game, I am taking my chances with almost a coin flip. If you decide my way isn't what you want, my Strike being used isn't a like we just lost the game; we aren't in LyLo, so stop flipping out over it. It's done, so you can live with it, you can do something about it, or you can do something with it.

So you assume that scum will be able to somehow manipulate the majority of votes without ever being detected doing it? And your solution is for us to strike at whoever our gut says is scum, making a no-lynch not only possible, but probable?

And you think that the best choice for your coin-flip is one of the strongest players in the game (regardless of alignment)?

[KageLord]

Well... that's a lot of posting for 36 hours. I've bit-better-than-skimmed what I missed, but I just don't feel like dragging up quotes from 4-5 pages ago. I'll see if anything newer strikes me on a reread later. For the moment though, since someone (Rampage?) asked about my reads to this point on certain people:

Toog
Friend
Hrezs
Exe

in descending order of scumminess. Since ya'll don't want to take out easy very prob-scum in Toog though, I'll try to throw something together on Friend. If the quicklynch is agreed upon, I'll agree to striking Hrezs.

[KageLord]

The problem with this strike system is it too easy to snowball. One person gets a couple strikes, and everyone will start getting that mentality that SOMEONE has to die at the end of the day and follow suit in fear that they will lose any death at all.

We will definitely want to consider hospitalization at some point in the game.

lulz. Double take when I realized who posted this.

Lynch apparently decided already so, at the risk of looking scummy, I'll hold off on any analysis my lazy ass was gonna do.

/strike: DrippingGoofball

[KageLord]

I find your strike very bad, too. Just saying.

[KageLord]

I think ABR is expendable scum, probably the goon for one of the two gangs.

Agree. But why do you consider him not to be an Inner Circle member?

________________________________

So did anyone else think it weird that there was only one kill last night? Two possibilities come to mind:

1. One faction decided to no-kill to avoid a lynch-and-RB day for town.
2. One faction hit the BP-vest Inner Circle member.

I think possibility 1 is more likely, but just in case it was the latter, I propose to that scum team that if one of your members is about to be lynched, that member should reveal that Inner Circle member. It is in both scum and town's best interest to get rid of the Inner Circle.

________________________________

AGar's death to me looks worst on Exe and ThAdmiral. He really only attacked those two (with two one-time things against LLD and Hrezs). It seems to me that if it was a policy kill, there would be better targets out there, so I would think it's a good place to look.

________________________________

Current scumlist (descending order): ABR, Exe, Friend, MoI (I throw this one on because I'm always wary when he survives N1)

[KageLord]

1. One faction decided to no-kill to avoid a lynch-and-RB day for town.

Unlikely.

So do you think it is more likely that they hit BP or a 3rd possibility?

[KageLord]

So do you think it is more likely that they hit BP or a 3rd possibility?

Let's think shall we?

Reasons why kills may be missing -

1. Targetted Inner Circle BP Vest.
2. Godfather role was Jailkept, preventing the kill.
3. Target was Jailkept, preventing the kill
4. Target was Mediced, preventing the kill.
5. Scum chose to no-kill based to prevent a vote-roleblock when said roleblock is more likely to hit Town or other scum than themselves.

Hell I might be missing some. But you immediately leap to the No-kill conclusion and bypass 2 to 4 completely when there are multiple Security Guards and Medics is just plain stupid.

Yeah, I stupidly forgot that we had JKs.

I considered the Medic (and should have put it up there as a possibility), but I considered that about equal likelihood as 1 (though really it is double, considering 2 medics and me being dumb >.>), so there was no point in bringing it up (as I brought up 1, though I thought it unlikely, to bring up that whole proposal thing).

[KageLord]

I'll post new reads Saturday afternoon MDT at the latest, but MagnaofIllusion makes a good point against KageLord.

... Which point? That I was being stupid? Because I think we can all agree on that, but that's not really a point against me as far as being town or scum goes.

Believable claim to me.

ABR remains my top scumread. And since I realized that I haven't done this yet:

VOTE: ABR

[KageLord]

My thoughts in italics.

Friend ISO:

2-3: Calls for lynch of Wraith and says ThAdmiral is scum.

Not sure if his playstyle is to fake being sure about everything (a la Fate). Not sure if he was at all serious. Null.

5: Says he would strike Wraith at this point if anyone (for the game-breaking comment).

Might be his actual (in my opinion very flawed) belief or testing the waters for a Wraith quicklynch. Very minor scum vibe.

7: Says Toog acted impulsively with quickstrike and thus null tell. Calls out CKD/Hrezs/me for jumping on the quickstrike. Votes me for leaving an out for if Toog flips town in my vote post. Says he still suspects Wraith because he has done nothing but chide Toog for quickstrike.

Most believable so far as a Toog-scumbuddy. As we find out later, Toog was not acting impulsively, but we'll get to that later. The rest of this post basically tries to make it out that anyone attacking Toog is scummy (major chainsaw defense tell if either flips scum), thereby also implying that Toog is town or at least not of the same faction as his attackers, who should be focused on first.

10: After Toog has revealed he wasn't acting impulsively, Friend says it was still null-tell because even though it was anti-town and stupid that's not necessarily scummy.

Continues defense of Toog while still trying to avoid saying he has a real town read on him. I don't see why Friend-town would maintain a vote due to me jumping on Toog's anti-town(!) action. Apparently it is scummy to attack someone that is hurting town.

12: Jumps on Hrezs vote wagon with no reason.

Mmkay.

14: Says Toog had CLEAR anti-town motivation, but not necessarily scum. Says he feels he is defending Toog too much because he doesn't have a town read on him.

This screams scum to me now that I am reading him in ISO. Definitely moves Friend up to #2 and Toog to #3 on my suspect list.

23: Responds to ThAdmiral's case on him by saying he agrees with ABR's defense of him.

lolololol I didn't notice this before, but it just makes the ABR/Friend/Toog/? scumteam too perfect.

37-39: Says he's for a Hrezs or Baby Spice lynch. Says BunnyLover and KK both came out of their exchange horribly. Earlier said he could see it as scum v. scum.

So basically he would be okay with 2 lynches (Hrezs and BS) and there are heavy hints that he might be okay with 3 others (Exe, Bunny, and KK).

Someone had better give me a cookie if there is an ABR/Friend/Toog/? scumteam.

Either going to look at Toog or Exe next, but I would be very happy with either an ABR or Friend lynch at this point.

[KageLord]

3) KageLord. I explained in my previous post why I did not like his early posts. His later posts have not improved. He spends quite a few posts today stating unjustified scumreads (for example, he names Exe and Friend despite having only quoted one of their posts each the entire game, and MoI despite having cited NONE o his posts) and providing lots of useless setup speculation on the lack of a NK. This is not town behavior because 1) town justify reads and 2) town don't care why the kill didn't happen in an open setup like this one.

Vote: KageLord

1. 2/3 of those have been justified (MoI already was by the time you made this post). Since I feel we already have at least 2 scum in ABR/Friend, I don't see the real need to go for Exe (my 4-5 read) at this point.

2. Speculation did turn out to be useless. I don't know what I was thinking when I posted that. I already admitted it was me being stupid.

3. Town should always care why the kill didn't happen. No need to speculate about it this early, but no point in completely ignoring it either.

4. So the entire case is that I haven't been helpful (which I agree with)? Nothing in there about me doing anything scummy though? You do realize that there are others that haven't posted useful content yet you focus on the one getting some attention at the moment?

Kagelord's night action speculation is hella-bad. There's so many reasons why we might not have a night kill, and trying to guess is just making noise. Big

FoS

on that one.

Not denying this beyond that my intention was not "just making noise".

I'll post new reads Saturday afternoon MDT at the latest, but MagnaofIllusion makes a good point against KageLord.

... Which point? That I was being stupid? Because I think we can all agree on that, but that's not really a point against me as far as being town or scum goes.

Believable claim to me.

ABR remains my top scumread. And since I realized that I haven't done this yet:

VOTE: ABR

multiple people just demostrated suspicion toward you (with and without votes) but you comment just on this, why?

Because their suspicion was based on my NK speculation being terrible, which I agreed with. This one I commented on because MoI didn't seem to be making a case against me as much as saying what I did was terrible and I was wondering what SC was talking about.

@ everyone: kagelord or friend - pick a side.

Hm... tough decision, but I'm gonna have to go with Friend. Though I would still prefer ABR.

---

-He (KageLord)'s clearly not doing that. What happened to your other thoughts/suspects?

He clearly is. Saying "Durr, why only 1 kill?" and speculating on why, but not including the existence of doctors and jailkeepers is a scummy scummy way to goading those power roles to speak up about their roles. If you think that KageLord isn't powerrole-trolling, then you are saying that you think KageLord is so stupid that he forgot about the existence of pro-town power roles.

Er... read my post after the whole speculation thing (I think it was soon after MoI's response to it). I admitted that I was being incredibly stupid. And what kind of idiot PRs would say "Nah, you're wrong. I'm a doc/jk and I saved ____."? That would have to be one of the stupidest scum plans ever. >.>

[KageLord]

EBWOP:

Since I feel we already have

at least

2 scum in ABR/Friend, I don't see the real need to go for Exe (my 4-5 read) at this point.

[KageLord]

WHo was the third person you edited out?

I didn't edit anyone out. At first I meant to say that out of the suspects we have now (I suppose that list would be Friend/me/ABR/Hrezs/Exe), I think that at least 2 (ABR/Friend) are scum. But that didn't seem the best way to put it, so I changed it to just saying those 2.

[KageLord]

@ everyone: kagelord or friend - pick a side.

Well either I suppose as KageLord seems scummy, but Friend is on my list of people that I think are super scummy.

But what I wanted to ask thAd is why? Isn't it a little early to be saying pick one or the other now?

Most people have expressed a willingness to lynch one or the other. I don't think it is unreasonable to suggest either is going to be our lynch today.

Furthermore I don't feel like much more discussion is going to help. This game is not going to become any clearer until at least one scum flips. I am getting pretty antsy to strike tbh.

Just make sure we have Hrezs's target decided before strikes go down, eh?

[KageLord]

Well now that the kill + block plan is officially screwed...

I don't know why someone was calling for my claim at this point. It's 6 more until I'm even hospitalized. Anyway, if someone is going to make the 9th strike on someone, wait to see if they want to claim first.

My order: KK, ThAd, me

Unvote

VOTE: KK

[KageLord]

Well now that the kill + block plan is officially screwed...

Kill + Block was never viable.

Well, assuming you were right about DSK waiting to kill until we had already reached a certain number of strikes on someone, we could have done it before the first strike on ThAd. If the DSK decided not to kill today, then yes, it was never possible.

[KageLord]

Well now that the kill + block plan is officially screwed...

I don't know why someone was calling for my claim at this point. It's 6 more until I'm even hospitalized. Anyway, if someone is going to make the 9th strike on someone, wait to see if they want to claim first.

My order: KK, ThAd, me

Unvote

VOTE: KK

for the record, did you like the kill/block plan?

In theory. I mean, it would obviously be a better plan to me if I didn't know that one of the two candidates was town.

Well now that the kill + block plan is officially screwed...

No, it's not.

As long as KK and KL receive the strikes, and the DSK kills someone who has already struck, then it's viable. Given that on D1 the DSK held off until real late in the day it's still a chance.

You're right. I hadn't seen RC's response about the DSK target's strike still counting, so yes, it is possible at this point.

THAT SAID, I'm not sure that it is better to get both a block and strike if it means scummy players like ThAd and others get a free pass for today. I think there's a reasonable enough chance of at least one of them being scum, that we'll learn something (we also learn some about the crazy premature strikers). I'll go along if majority of players want to do it. If not, the ThAd wagon looks best of the three.

Since I know that one of the 2 is town and the other is far from my top suspect, obviously I agree with this. Technically we can still lynch anyone at this point (ABR/Friend please).

[KageLord]

So basically... if I have counted right, even after the DSK kill we wouldn't be able to kill anyone other than ThAd (i.e. KK). That's enough reason for me to take ThAd at this point.

Strike: ThAdmiral

[KageLord]

I don't feel like doing this right his second, but I think that if we go back and analyze the timing on which strikes were placed where (e.g., who started the gas on the whole triple-wagon shenanigans and then shoved us onto ThAd), we can zero in on scumz (aka KageLord and/or LLDs buddies).

So... besides myself and LLD, who do you think at this point?

[KageLord]

@DSK-
Follow the lead and kill more scum please! (I'm wondering if the DSK's kill is limited...e.g. can only be submitted after x strikes placed or after a player is at L-1 strikes,...)

I doubt it's like that. It would be a great disadvantage to the DSK, considering players aren't on 24-7 and the DSK could thus easily miss their kill opportunity if that were true. I miiiiight be able to believe that the kill is only revealed at L-2 or L-1 though.

@Hrezs-
Did you use your power last night? If so, who did you target and why? (Obviously his *target* should only say something if it's proof that he's lying scum).

I'm just separating this out of Kast's post so we don't miss it.

Out of AGM's ISO, all I see is that LLD and I were by far his top suspects and that he attacked myself and Hrezs early for attacking Toog. Given that I already had Toog as one of my top 5 scumreads, I could certainly believe Toog as a Night Rider.

______________________________

Reads in descending order:

Prob Town

:

Magua
Kast
KK

Scum

:

ABR
Friend
Toog
MoI

[KageLord]

I wonder...

Does anyone else get the feeling that Baby Spice is scum, and that she is pushing for a Toogaloo lynch because she suspects him of being the IC in her faction?

I was actually getting the feeling BS might be IC scum. Whether pushing Toog is trying to lynch town (unlikely, I think) or trying to get rid of another member of BS's scum team or trying to get rid of a member BS's IC-buddy's scum team, I'm not sure. Then again, your theory is not without merit either.

I still don't get why BS doesn't understand that Toog and ABR are highly unlikely IC-buddies. IC strike-bussing (as opposed to our pseudo-vote-bussing) each other is about the worst plan I have ever heard.

Still... VOTE: ABR

[KageLord]

I still don't get why BS doesn't understand that Toog and ABR are highly unlikely IC-buddies. IC strike-bussing (as opposed to our pseudo-vote-bussing) each other is about the worst plan I have ever heard.

Still... VOTE: ABR

That's strange, you put Toogeloo as scummier than me in your last post.

Reads in descending order:

Scum

:

ABR
Friend
Toog
MoI

Er... no, I didn't?

I suppose it might have been confusing because I put my town reads above those scum reads, but what I meant to say was that those were descending order in each category (i.e. you were my top scum and MoI was bottom). If I had meant the whole thing to be descending and combined, I don't know that it would have made much sense to leave out the middle. But I can see how it could have been misunderstood.

[KageLord]

Gd people. Slow it down.

Okay, how about everyone that hasn't struck yet says which lynch(es) they would be down for today before we do anything else?

ABR: Yes
MoI: No
Toog: Yes
BS: No

The main reason why I say no to MoI and BS is that we have 2 much better lynches open for today. I wouldn't be shocked if 3/4 of these were scum, but I would rather take out the ones I'm more sure of first. If DSK wants to shoot someone on this list that isn't going to be lynched though, that would be mutually beneficial.

[KageLord]

Okay, how about everyone that hasn't struck yet says which lynch(es) they would be down for today before we do anything else?

ABR: Yes
MoI: No
Toog: Yes
BS: No

I really hate it when the guy I strongly suspect of being scum is suddenly the voice of reason. Albert B. Rampage and MagnaofIllusion are getting hesitant "No"s right now.

Why the "no" on Baby Spice? Her play/logic is absolutely horrible..

As I said in that post, the responses for MoI and BS are simply because I believe we have 2 much better options. Those "no"s don't mean that I wouldn't consider them later (as soon as tomorrow, depending on who gets nixed in the meantime).

And I agree that BS's logic is horrible, but that's not necessarily a scumtell. I haven't played with BS before, so I have no meta reason to think BS's logic is ever that good.

[KageLord]

Still waiting to hear from the following about their lynch preferences:

Kise
Xalxe
Kast
Exe
Magua
Plum

Lynch Preference Count (not including strikes already placed):

ABR: 3
MoI: 1
Toog: 4
BS: 3

If we throw in the strikes they already have, that is a potential (obviously certain people are counted two or three times as this is just an estimate of how many strikes we can potentially get on each person at this point):

BS: 5
Toog: 6
ABR: 4
MoI: 2

An MoI lynch is pretty much impossible for today unless at least 2 people that have already chimed in change their minds. I personally would not mind throwing him out of our potential lynch list

for today

(he'll be a good place to go back to tomorrow if he's still alive, considering MoI surviving to D4 is a very strong sign of him being scum in my experience).

Any of the other 3 are quite possible at this point.

[KageLord]

Did RC ever answer that question about whether we would be told or not if an IC member died?

In other news:

Strike: Baby Spice

That's L-1. Still looking at ABR and Toog for tomorrow.

[KageLord]

And

no more

freaking questions! I'm not saying any more!

You don't like added information! You must be scum!

[KageLord]

SC is still using the same god damn terrible arguments he used yesterday.

You realize that's not a scumtell though, right?

I'm not sold on SC-scum. In my experience, SC isn't dumb. The only conclusion I can reach here is that he's just not paying attention. And that usually is more of a town trait than scum trait for a non-VI/SI as far as I'm concerned. So while I don't want to just let SC continue like this, I think we have bigger fish to fry.

On that note, I find it amazing that both Toog and ABR survived yesterday. I think we need one (or both, dear DSK?) of them down today. My preference is still ABR.

Other than those 2, IGMEO Friend/Xalxe and Exe.

Most town: Magua and KK.

[KageLord]

More likely Magua is SK.

So you think Exe is more likely IC than LLD?

[KageLord]

LLD is Skullcrusher IC.

StrangerCoug is the last Night Rider, so roleblocking him is a good idea.

These are almost contradictory statements. LLD came out today trying to quickly get after SC. This makes no sense if they are IC buddies. The only way that SC could be the last NR and not IC is if that IC died earlier, in which case LLD had already lost and her actions make little sense. Also, you do realize that LLD-IC implicates you as well, according to Exe's info, right?

Strike: LLD

No point in waiting anymore. According to Kast's plan, that would be the last strike on LLD for now. I'm not so sure if we should block SC though, given the info on LLD.

Gomen nasai, shinzoo-no-hime-sama!

[KageLord]

That coupled with KL thinking he was town....KL thought I was scum too and tunneled me for god knows how long, I hope I was framed because damn.

You were indeed, brosieur. Unlucky on that really. I second-guessed that result a lot because of how you were the voice of reason for a lot of the game, but I just didn't think the odds of you being framed N1 were great enough.

Btw, I wasn't a normal cop. 2-shot cop, 2-shot watcher, 2-shot tracker. Didn't expect you to follow my results without question after I died (especially with the presence of mixmaster for a night and framers) otherwise I would have called Magua "not mafia".

Great game by Magua though. Even knowing that there was always a chance of him being DSK, I only doubted him twice and those doubts were quickly assuaged each time.