Cold War Mafia - GAME OVER!!

[smargaret]

VOTE: JMJ

Legitimate suspicions aren't enough for him to vote DP or Ivy, but a completely random vote is okay? This does not compute.

[smargaret]

That post from Furc is just bad. First, while town could gain some information from speculating on the setup at this point in the game, there is no way that town gains more information than scum does. Giving scum information is only good if you give town more information.

Then let's look at the Ivy vote. Ivy is scum because she hasn't posted a wall of text yet - on page 3, when the game has been open for less than 24 hours. Leaving validity of meta arguments aside, it is unreasonable to expect a wall at this point in the game. Furthermore,

saying

that the lack of a wall post is the motivation behind your vote means that if Ivy is scum, all she has to do is manufacture a wall post and she'll be cleared as town in Furc's view.

Consider also this snippet from Furc's wall:

I am suspicious of LlamaFluff for his black/white reaction to the RQS. Only siths deal in absolutes, kind of thing. The townie reaction, in my opinion, is more along the lines of what Scott Brosius said. He was confused, wishy-washy on it, and then voted me.

So you, as town presumably, posted something to which the townie reaction is to vote you? How is that pro-town? Hint: It's not.

UNVOTE: jmj
VOTE: Furc

[smargaret]

Furc, I'd like to hear why you assume scum have daytalk. It hasn't been my experience that it's the norm here. And how could you not know how closed/open the setup is?

[smargaret]

So basically, you WIFOM'd your way out of one corner and into another. And given the stance you've previously taken on ad hom attacks, I'm surprised you'd call someone a social pariah.

Now, how about you respond to my first post?

[smargaret]

1. a. Granted
b. But I don't know who the other townies are. I don't know what they know. There is no town collective of knowledge. On the other hand, the scum presumably do know each other and, if they weren't able to share the information they got from their role PMs in pre-game, will do so tonight. Thus, scum have more setup knowledge from town and can gain more from setup speculation than any individual townie. Since the townies can't get together and talk, you have to evaluate the information gained by town on an individual basis - in other words, scum gains more.

2. I said I wasn't going to get into meta validity arguments with you. General mafia theory discussions in the middle of a game aren't particularly productive and tend to lead to "He believes x, x is anti-town, he's scum" reasoning.
a. Irrelevant.
b. Or the slips will be hidden in the wall and people will skim through a wall and miss them. Or she's just a competent scum player.
c. Um, I'm not entirely sure what you're trying to say here. Are you saying - you of all people - that townies never do things that look scummy?

3. Again, I'm not sure what you're saying, but walls are not pro-town unless they're necessary (and at this point in the game, they're not). They encourage skimming and make it harder to get invested and interested in a game. Furthermore, this doesn't address how you deliberately provoked someone to vote you - and there is no universe in which that is pro-town.

Now, unvoting and random voting when we're clearly out of RVS not only sets us back, but it goes against your stated policy that RVS is counterproductive and it means you're not actually voting for someone you believe to be scum. Again, anti-town. Furthermore, if I counted right, Ivy had 9 votes on her and was at L-4. That's too many votes?

[smargaret]

Furc - what was the point of that post? Your recent posting has been not good in a very anti-town way. If you're more pro-town, it'll be easier to read you.

Nacho - why is ThAd scum? The only thing I saw was some inconsistency regarding his read on me.

[smargaret]

Furc: Quoting a game for meta and then refusing to link to said game is scummy. What, we're all supposed to take you at your word? And Ivy has wall-posted a couple of times now; how does that change your read of her?

Ivy: That wall post was bad, just bad, but other people have beaten me to the reasons I disliked it, so I'm not going to restate why. The only reason I'm not voting you is that I'm not comfortable with the vote count that high at this point in the game.

Artem: Your 199 looks like you're inflating the length of your post. Why include the four possibilities? Presumably everyone here has played enough mafia that they don't need that spelled out for them.

Nacho: I'm still waiting to hear why ThAd is scum.

[smargaret]

GW: How, precisely, have you been trying to determine which players on the Ivy/Furc wagons are scum? What about the players on the ThAd wagon? And what prevents the RNG from assigning a scum role to a VI? Furthermore, the fact that you are trying to find scum on the wagon does not prevent you from laying down a vote - in fact, it should encourage it.

Most players are on one of those three wagons, so saying that there is scum on those wagons is a safe bet - even if one of the wagonees is scum.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: GW

[smargaret]

yes, i suppose that is true, but i have never claimed to be a good scumhunter, and am in fact a rather poor one.

This does not sit well with me. Are you trying to excuse your future presence on a mislynch or something?

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Rat

I also haven't seen any towntells from GW. He hasn't posted enough to have a boatload of anything.

[smargaret]

I would feel more comfortable voting PI now, except GW made himself look scummier and I only have one vote. It was more the speed than the votecount, and the fact that there were people who hadn't posted at all.

[smargaret]

GW, how is not sharing your impressions pro-town?

[smargaret]

I'm still waiting for GW to post anything game related (except flavor information; that was just scummy. Lectures on flavor are helpful only when flavor is actually an issue, which it really wasn't and isn't. You were just trying to look like you were contributing).

Has Fuzzyman posted yet?

I don't like Ivy's "defense," which is to say, the way she laid down in front of the wagon.

BotS: Vote does not necessarily equal lynch. I would like there to be a certain amount of pressure on Ivy, and I thought at the point I voted for GW that the pressure on her was adequate for the situation. I saw how she reacted to the wagon. I'd like there to be a little more pressure on her at the moment, because I'm not sure whether her reaction was frustrated town or scum. However, GW has actually done things I see to be definitively scummy, so he gets my vote. Also, I was answering a question about how I felt about the Ivy wagon at that point in time - not pushing to restart the wagon. There's a difference, and implying that there isn't is misrep.

[smargaret]

Pot, kettle.

[smargaret]

I found him scummy at the start of the game, and rereading while contributing nothing is a fancy way to spell lurking.
UNVOTE:
VOTE: jmj

[smargaret]

Mod: Can we get a votecount please?

[smargaret]

So why are you on it, then?

[smargaret]

AUGH lost my post.

Feysal, I'd like to hear your theory in a few days when it may or may not have been disproved.

LMP, to some extent this is jmj's playstyle. But is it really a playstyle when he isn't playing? It's anti-town, and I am leery of being in lylo with him. Having reread his games, I'm less comfortable with my vote, though.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: ThAd

While the early wagon/case didn't look that great, neither did ThAd's response to said case.

EBWOP: So DP, just so we're clear, this is a policy lynch, right?

[smargaret]

ThAd - your reaction has been very "Why me? Lol, someone thinks I'm scum. Why am I scum? Look at this shiny VI we can lynch instead." This quote in particular:

Secondly I believe, in general, that I am not all that much of a scumhunter. I certainly do it, but I am pretty sure if you looked over my history I have more often been inclined to pick and choose from what I believe are the best cases rather than submit ones of my own.

sounds off, almost like you're trying to play an equivalent of the newbie card - "Oh, don't mind me, I can't scumhunt, that's why I was pushing the townie mislynch."

Also, you seem to have inside alignment information and a lot of your reads on people change suddenly and for no apparent reason - you spend one whole post early in the game agreeing with me and saying I make good points, yet the next post in your iso has you getting scum tingles from me. You do the same thing to Furc - he's obvtown and then in the next post in your iso, he's clearly scum. That looks like you're feeling out where people are willing to wagon.

[smargaret]

XScorpion - I think Amrun was saying that PI the person is from a country that is neither the US nor Russia, nor was heavily involved in the Cold War and not that PI got a role pm listing nationality from a not US/Russia country.

[smargaret]

I'm not sure what the point was, but that's just how that part of the catchup post read to me.

[smargaret]

Amrun - scum would buddy a townie up for a lynch so that, when the townie gets lynched, they get town points for not being on the mislynch. Now, why are you voting someone for pressure when you have actual scumreads? You're starting to sound a lot like you're trying to sound town, not like you actually are town (the long "ignore my scummy predecessor!" at the start of your catchup post, the Vote: x cast suspicion on: a, b, c!, and the I won't flip scum! in your most recent post)

[smargaret]

IP, there's a difference between pushing a wagon and trying to get a read on someone who replaced into a scummy spot that was scummy largely because his predecessor actively worked against allowing the town to read her. Also, it's folly to object to a wagon right now because one person is on it - unless you're scum, you know nothing about my alignment and thus can draw no conclusions about ThAd's alignment from my suspicion of him.

In short, yes, you are tunneling. And for all that you're so convinced I'm scum that you won't vote anyone that I am EVEN THOUGH YOU FIND THEM SCUMMY TOO, you're not voting me. Why not?

[smargaret]

Artem - jmj was the day 1 lynch in black and white comic book mafia in Coney Island (sorry, too lazy to look up the link right now) for exactly the same delaying tactics/lack of analysis.

[smargaret]

It's called keeping your options open, Amrun.

[smargaret]

I just noticed the activity overview - that's really neat.

I am less willing to lynch jmj now; I'd rather wait and watch Mothrax and see if the scummy fluffposting was due to RL issues or if there's still reason to suspect scum out of that slot.

This game is going to stagnate without a flip. We need to get a lynch and move on.

I don't like that Furc is using meta based off a single game to justify reads, it looks a lot like confirmation bias to me. I know my playstyle changed DRAMATICALLY between my first newbie game and any subsequent game.

[smargaret]

Furc: WTF? Why claim? While I agree that today needs to move along, you claiming was not the way to accomplish that!

I propose that we lynch someone as soon as mothrax posts his catchup thing, because this game is so stagnant people are going to start losing interest.

[smargaret]

We can have this discussion about why you don't claim bulletproof in post-game, Furc.

[smargaret]

I agree with DP. I don't see much of a way your claimed role can be useful to town and I can see plenty of ways it's useful to scum. I also don't see how MacArthur-town fits with the wincon in the role PM I received. Also, why would you claim when you're nowhere near a lynch?

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Amrun

[smargaret]

The setup is not US v Soviet. Amrun is lying scum.

[smargaret]

DP, how on earth is making a factual statement about the setup and stating an opinion about a player misrepping?

[smargaret]

a. I know my statement is factual, as does the mod and presumably Fuzzyman.
b. The two were, in fact, unrelated. You are lying scum because of your claim. And while you may not have said it was definitely Soviet v US, your predecessor certainly tried to push it.

[smargaret]

Amrun's claim is still scummy. McCarthy is hardly a peaceful role, and silencer is much more likely to be scum than town. Just because LMP stopped the lynch doesn't mean we have a confirmed townie - even if Amrun silences me and I can't vote tomorrow, that still won't confirm her as town, just confirm her as silencer.

Furc's rolename is likely town.

Since we're not going to be lynching Amrun today,
UNVOTE:
VOTE: ThAd

[smargaret]

I am town-aligned. I am from a capitalist country that is not the US.

The setup is not US v Soviets, and there is no way that someone as vociferously anti-Communist as McCarthy is town.

[smargaret]

Not if you believe Furc's claim, like I do. Capitalist v. Communist also doesn't align with threats to peace.

[smargaret]

Oh, I'm not trying to convince you. I'm trying to convince someone with a spare vig shot laying around.

[smargaret]

Too late; I think Sathoris may have decided to test the governor claim.

[smargaret]

And now that I've actually read your wall, I got off the Amrun wagon because I believed Llama and wanted to see a flip. If I were to only vote for/direct questions to one person, you'd say I was tunneling, and I was ready and willing to lynch Amrun before Llama said that about the governor thing.

[smargaret]

Huh, more people unvoted than I thought.

[smargaret]

In that case,

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Amrun

[smargaret]

Furc -

1. Why give a miller a power, especially one that looks as anti-town as what Amrun has claimed? I would say Amrun is town before I would say she's a miller.
2. Your character was the leader of a communist nation, according to wikipedia.
3. Why do you assume a 3-man scumteam, especially in a game this size?

Actually, I'm not at all certain that Amrun is scum - I think it's more likely she's some sort of third party role. Notice all the third party speculation in her posts, and it would make much more sense for McCarthy to win when all the communists are dead. Either way, I am pretty convinced she's not town.

IP - I unvoted Amrun because I was under the belief she'd been governored, and I didn't want a no lynch. When Llama revealed his gambit, I put my vote back on, because Amrun was and still is the player I believe to be least likely to be town. Why does that make me scummy?

[smargaret]

I completely agree with BotS's last post.

[smargaret]

I would like to reiterate bots's point that just because Llama faked a governor on Amrun doesn't change anything that made us all think she was so scummy before.

[smargaret]

Scum don't always react like scum when they're hammered. In fact, they often don't.

[smargaret]

apologies for incoherence, i'm sorta sedated right now.

my role pm states that i am a town-aligned player from a non-US, nn-USSR country. thus I can dedduce that ther are other such players in the game because if the mod made it so i was the only one, thta'd be bstard. jvw/ffuzzy/bunny's slip is legit imo.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: bunny

[smargaret]

again. no way is che peaceful. whether you agree with his politics or nott, he was involved in at least three revolutions and didn't believe ina peacuful transition to marxism.

if bunny flips town i'llllll reconsider amrun. but i just don't see it.

ebwop voting bunny because 1. i have falvor and he said he didn't, now he does, other players i believe to be town have enough favor to paraphrase 2. general uselessness and proximity to dealine 3. while i believe there aree other town non-us/soviets thats aconclusion i can draw without seeing it expliscitly stated so whyd jvw say he didn't think there wer any?

[smargaret]

also, che is argentinian, not cuban (though he did live in cuba, he was born and raised in argentina)

[smargaret]

not just you. your slot has been useless.

if you have flavor, WHY DID YOU SAY YOU DIDN'T? and i said i believe other nationalities are possible, ot that you are or aren't one.

[smargaret]

@Amrun: Sorry I'm not good with history x-x. My person is not of American or Soviet nationality, I have no favor to back it up though. The favor I do have, anyone could have in their pm.

[smargaret]

Is there a reason for him to nameclaim, or are you rolefishing?

[smargaret]

Actually, I think Bunny's at L-1.

[smargaret]

Ah, I missed Gon.

[smargaret]

Furc needs to come in and explain himself, now. Steph - GW was lurking and refusing to give input. If the vig missed the replacement announcement, I can easily see the vig shooting to try to get rid of an unreadable player.
VOTE: Furc

[smargaret]

Nacho, look at Amrun's second post in the game. Do you see anything there?

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Amrun

[smargaret]

I'm gonna lean town on Amrun. I mean a town roleblocker wouldn't really roleblock a "silencer". I just don't think it's likely. Now if he's scum he shouldn't have been roleblocked at all. The only thing that makes some sense is a different scum group to Amrun's roleblocking him.

Basically I see one of two things happening:
Town Amrun got roleblocked by scum to set him up.
ScumA Amrun got roleblocked by ScumB to set him up.

First seems slightly more probable.

You're missing an option: Amrun is scum and lying about her power.

[smargaret]

Sevei:

On my reread, the first thing to set me off about Sevei was her very first post. She tells everyone to forget about jam, which suggests that she was worried about how scummy jam looked. This comes in the very beginning of her post, which suggests that she looked at her predecessor before anything else. In other words, she's commited the AmishTell (explained here.

Sevei was scum in this game.

In Amrun's catch up post, the first thing she does is to make excuses for how scummy PI seemed. While Amrun was one of the leading wagons, she was nowhere near actually getting lynched (she had 6/13 votes on her at the time).

[smargaret]

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Furc

EGL has a good point, Furc, you softclaimed PR earlier to explain why you lied about being a veteran, and now you're a VT? That makes at least two lies. Furc's eagerness to claim also worries me.

Nacho, why are you clearing Amrun based on the nk? Have you never seen scum kill someone to frame a town player, or kill someone who had called them town during the day?

I'm willing to let mothrax slide for a bit on v/la, but he'd better start posting.

[smargaret]

Sathoris - yesterday, you were on Amrun/PI straight through the end of the day. You listed reasons that had nothing to do with being McCarthy for voting her.

Why is she suddenly a townread?

[smargaret]

Yet another reason to not believe Furc - Amrun's claimed a name and role that fit (and while I doubt the silencer is town, I don't doubt that she is a silencer). My name and role fit. Heydar Aliyev does not fit with doc.

[smargaret]

Fate, is that you?

I'm going to be offline completely for an as-yet undefined part of the weekend

. I'll post for real before I leave.

[smargaret]

Stephoscope is making me really nervous, here. Day 1 was all active lurking and fluff posting; Day 2 has been all rolefishing. Read his ISO - he only has six posts that aren't one-liners, and most of those are two-liners. If he's scum, he's dangerous scum.

Gonnano - it's interesting that he keeps pushing jmj after mothrax replaces in. I'm seeing a lot of posting of information and not a lot of taking positions. When he does say "X might be scum" it's sheeping someone else - RC and Ghostwriter, for instance. His preoccupation with why people want him dead is also troubling. I think he's ever so slightly more likely to be scum than Steph, but Steph is doing more damage to town - I'd be happy to see a wagon on either of them.

Lowell actually reads more like this is his playstyle, not like he's scum. Can someone who's played with him before verify whether or not this is the case? There's a little bit of wagon hopping, but out of these three people, he looks the most town.

DP in no way clears Furc, but I'd rather leave them to the vig and let the town look at the three people above.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Steph

[smargaret]

rolefishing. v'/la now.

[smargaret]

Furc, of course I disappeared. My FMIL was literally at the door and we were going somewhere with no internet connection.

I don't see Nacho's post as a softclaim. Sathoris's reaction was "I want to prove that I didn't PM furc about the game" not "I want to show how town I am!!!!" scummy.

Furc, how many people do you find scummy right now?

[smargaret]

I jumped off furc because I think there are a lot of people who keep coming up as scummy - Lowell and gonanno are the two I can think of off the top of my head - but aren't getting attention/being wagoned, and more - steph, sath, bvoigt, EGL, BotS - who are coasting. There was a fair bit of pressure on Furc, the town isn't going to let him slide - and we have several scum to be hunting for. Yesterday I was pretty lost given the size of the game and the number of wagons.

[smargaret]

EBWOP: Furc, if you're so receptive to my lynch, why aren't you voting me?

[smargaret]

Furc: Ever hear the saying "The best defense is a good offense"?

[smargaret]

BotS: The fluffposting doesn't make a difference to how potentially dangerous the rolefishing is; inactivity in thread and in a scum qt don't necessarily go hand in hand. Scum have to do more than stay alive, and given how few people are willing to consider my post, the amount of heat she's drawing for it is negligible.

I don't really have an outright "defense" for the case against me (my understanding is that it's wagonhopping and coasting?) because I have been doing that. I probably shouldn't play in large games for a while, because I'm having a hard time getting reads on people, which leads to being found scummy, and as a townie, that's not a good thing. I'll do my best to pick it up.

[smargaret]

Not distancing from, apologizing for and recognizing how to prevent it in the future. There's a difference.

[smargaret]

Furc, while I'm glad that you think I'm more town than you used to, you completely misinterpreted my post.

1. At no point did I claim vt. Saying I'm town != saying I'm vt. I claimed an alignment, not a role.

2. I don't see the "scum imagining things." If I had said "Scum are concerned with survival more often than town. Furc seems overly concerned with his own survival - note the numerous fakeclaims designed to keep vig's away. FOS: Furc" - would that be the same scum imagining things? Because it's the same argument: "Scum have to do more than stay alive. They have to power role hunt. Steph is power role hunting. Even though Steph is posting fluff in the game, that doesn't stop him from posting content in the QT."

[smargaret]

Nacho, look at Amrun's second post in the game. Do you see anything there?

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Amrun

Sevei:

On my reread, the first thing to set me off about Sevei was her very first post. She tells everyone to forget about jam, which suggests that she was worried about how scummy jam looked. This comes in the very beginning of her post, which suggests that she looked at her predecessor before anything else. In other words, she's commited the AmishTell (explained here.

Sevei was scum in this game.

In Amrun's catch up post, the first thing she does is to make excuses for how scummy PI seemed. While Amrun was one of the leading wagons, she was nowhere near actually getting lynched (she had 6/13 votes on her at the time).

Yeah, Nacho, how did you miss that. *headdesk* Are people actually willing to go after Amrun now? Or will I just get accused of wagon hopping again?

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Amrun

[smargaret]

Amrun should have five votes on her. That's nowhere near a hammer.

[smargaret]

I'm scum, ThAd is scum, and you're going for the vig target LMP? VOTE: LMP

Furc, why are you alive?

ThAd, why are you only considering the wagon up to 7?

and how the HELL is Tito town???

[smargaret]

Are you seriously using LaL in possible LyLo? On David Parker, of all people?

[smargaret]

LyLo or not, the point remains that you're using LaL as an alternative to scumhunting.

[smargaret]

Furc, things change.

Feysal is likely town. Sathoris, you're overlooking that we found the scum in the first seven on the Amrun wagon - it was VPB.

[smargaret]

^^spoken like someone who knows how I'm going to flip.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Steph

[smargaret]

Willy Brandt, West German neighbor. I want there to be peace, and I believe that my neighbor who will remain unnamed for now also wants this. I have a town read on my neighbor.

Give me ~24 hours to write up/post my reads before hammering. If anyone does hammer before I post said reads, look at them tomorrow.

[smargaret]

Gonnano's post is a bunch of bull doodoo. If my neighbor buddy should happen to flip scum, that flip would look like "XXXXX, (scumteam) neighbor." All this does to my alignment is prove that I'm not on the same scumteam, since that would just be stupid - it doesn't confirm me as a member of the other scumteam, nor does it confirm me as town. Similarly, if my neighbor buddy flips town, that flip wouldn't confirm me as a member of either scumteam - the whole point of neighbors is that you don't know whether the other neighbor is town or scum.

ThAd, the flavor I have is in my claim post. I don't want to go to war, and I believe that my neighbor buddy doesn't want to either. Why didn't you see this?

I like Fonz's recent posting. I'm still suspicious of Steph for reasons explained in a previous post. EGL is posting useless nonsense, as SB pointed out. Furthermore, EGL was the hammer on both mislynches, and quickhammered yesterday before Nacho had a chance to post. This puts him on the scum side of the spectrum. Furc needs to die, if only so he isn't around in lylo. Furc also needs some pressure for the amrun/artem confusion; I can easily see that as a scum distancing tactic gone awry.

[smargaret]

Steph's most recent post smacks of lazy scum - if he's already built a "case" on someone, why does he need to build it again?

Scott, why should we be voting the liars who, as meta tells us, will lie regardless of alignment instead of the scum? Do you think Furc/DP's lies make them necessarily scummy?

If we're voting someone over lies, I'd rather it be Furc than DP - DP's role information claim doesn't seem as scummy as Furc's multiple fakeclaims to me. However, I'd much rather look for/lynch scum.

[smargaret]

Well, it is what you did. Surely bvoigt has done something else today, whether to increase your scum read or make him look more town. Not even considering his later actions and relying completely on your initial gut read is lazy, end of story.

[smargaret]

Furc, that's not an admission of guilt. That's me saying that while your lies are scummy, and you're more likely to be scum than DP, there are also people who are acting in ways that are more likely to make them scum than you. You can be scum and not be the best lynch for the day. Thanks for twisting my words, though.

Oh, I can't wait to see what you're going to try and turn this post into.

[smargaret]

Gonnano - yes and no. It's based on how what my neighbor has posted in the qt lines up with stated views in-thread, and posting style, if that makes any sense?

The sentence "I don't think I've done anything that makes me the best lynch for today" sounds an awful lot like self-preservation over scumhunting. I'm up for a gonnano lynch if people aren't interested in going after Steph. I'd also go for an EGL lynch because of the quickhammer that prevented Nacho from posting and general lurkiness.

[smargaret]

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Gonnano

L-1. This game is stagnating.

[smargaret]

UNVOTE: until gonanno gives his results.

[smargaret]

Furc's most recent is badposting. You can't go after someone based on associative tells with a living player. Also, that post doesn't actually contain a single position.

Gonnano's claim is also bad, for the reasons ThAd pointed out. I'm happy with a gonnano lynch at this point.

VOTE: Gonnano

[smargaret]

I believe furc is clear now. Also, I believe EGL is scum. He hammered the first two mislynches (one of them was even a quickhammer, preventing Nacho from posting) but then he very carefully avoided the gonanno wagon. Along those lines, there are many times where gonanno attacks EGL but fails to vote him - this looks like scum distancing to me. There's also something to be said for how often EGL posts that he's going v/la or that he's sorry, he's back, catchup post is coming soon - but it never does.

[smargaret]

VOTE: EGL

[smargaret]

Feysal - can you elaborate on why the EGL case is suddenly invalid?

[smargaret]

I don't really have anything to say until Feysal comes in and answers my question.

[smargaret]

No, furc, we need to hear the answer to that. It's more than just his opinion.

Scott, trust me on this until feysal comes back?

[smargaret]

No, Feysal, you need to talk about EGL and why you all of a sudden don't think he's a valid lynch.

[smargaret]

So. Feysal's my neighbor and last night he posted once, saying that EGL was the right lynch for today, and I don't buy the explanation of how that changed, since I posted the case I made against EGL in the qt last night. He also posted a bunch of other stuff about how he's found crumbs from players still alive (which I won't reveal) and dead, and pushed me to talk about any investigative roles (ie, he was rolefishing). Much of what he's done in thread and in the qt is setup speculation and rolefishing. The town read went poof. Discuss.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Feysal

[smargaret]

Yes, if he flips town then I look bad. But I really can't see him as town any more after that.

[smargaret]

You might consider voting him, then, furc.

[smargaret]

Feysal's been online twice today without posting. Just sayin'.

[smargaret]

Looks like I've been outed, so I might as well confirm my role explicitly. I am indeed Erich Honecker, Soviet neighbor, smargaret's partner. I could add that while our alignments are unconfirmed, our names and nationalities are confirmed to each other. I know for a fact that smargaret is Willy Brandt, West German neighbor, and she knows similarly who I am. While I'm at it, I can also reveal two clues I left to my role and nationality. The major one was in post #462, my second one in the game. Take the first letter of each sentence, paragraph by paragraph, and you get AUFERSTANDEN AUS RUINEN, the name and first verse of the East German anthem, which I rather like.

This crumb was mentioned in the QT. While the QT post by mod does indeed refer to Feysal's role as he does, my role pm lists his nationality as something other than Soviet (apologies for awkwardness, I'm trying very hard not to quote, and it's not easy since much of what is making me suspicious is word choice/style). However, it's interesting to note that the town communist flips we have - Che and Tito and Brezhnev- are referred to as Cuban and Yugoslavian and Soviet, respectively, while the scum communist flips we have - Kadar and Ho Chi Minh - are referred to as Soviet Mafia and Vietnamese Soviet Mafia. Conclusion: Only scum get both their nationality and "soviet" attached, since "soviet" is an adjective modifying "mafia" and not a nationality in that context. Feysal has both "soviet" and "East-German" attached to his name.

The second clue I left was not hidden, but since no one ever seemed to notice, I guess it was too subtle.

Basically, the Che Guevara from the Cuban Missile Crisis would be one of the worst threats to peace imaginable, but in light of his later rift with the Soviets, I have trouble seeing him allied with anyone. The fact that Bunnylover gave his nationality as Cuban instead of Soviet also suggests this. The role sounds like it could be third party more than anything else.

The key here is that I implied Bunnylover would be either Cuban or Soviet, not both. At the time, from my own role, I thought that Soviet townies would not have a nationality other than Soviet. My role has no mention of me being East German anywhere. It was not until VP Baltar flipped Vietnamese Soviet that I learned otherwise.

See above.

In response to the case on me: it is true that I said in my QuickTopic with smargaret that EGL would be the way to go today. That was my mistake. Before that, smargaret had noted that gonnano had attacked EGL often, but avoided voting him. I did not bother to check this and took smargaret's word for it, and since I did remember EGL hammering two town players, I had nothing against his lynch and said what I did. When the day started and smargaret posted her case on EGL, only then I did an ISO read of EGL and a partial read of gonnano. I discovered that the facts did not match what smargaret had said. There was only one time gonnano made an attack on EGL, two if you're being generous, the other time being when gonnano listed several suspects that included himself. That is not often. Also, gonnano did vote EGL, as the second on that wagon, so I can't say he'd have avoided voting him either.

I stand by what I said: I think the distancing argument between gonnano and EGL is invalid. I find EGL much more likely to be NATO than Soviet scum. If you're voting me because of my last two days being poor, that is fine, they have been poor. If you're voting me for changing my mind when I noticed a flaw in the EGL case, then I don't know what to say.

So your argument for being town is not paying attention to what's said in the QT, ie not using your pr? How does this benefit the town? Why didn't you look at EGL? And, as I recall, you said EGL was the play for today before I posted about him.

As for the role fishing part, that makes no sense whatsoever. I did comment on there being no informative roles among the dead, and hoped that they'd learn something useful by today. Whose roles would I have fished for

in a QuickTopic?

Regardless of smargaret's alignment, she would not know of any informative roles, and I already knew her role to be a West German neighbor.

I wouldn't know any informative roles unless I'd picked up on crumbs, or on any of the other ways people hint that they're informative roles.

Let's go briefly through Feysal's posts in the qt.

first post

: very concerned with making sure that we trust each other and wanted to know what my opinion of him was and why I voted PR on day 1. - not scumhunting, but seeing if it's worth keeping me around

Second post

: more "hey let's trust each other!", revealing the breadcrumb and setup speculation - specifically, why there are two scumteams of 3-4 members each. Then, Feysal uses this to try and read people, with conclusions being DP and SB town and gonnano scummy - but I don't recall any followup on gonnano day 2, and I'm not going looking for it right now. see above about the trust issue, and setup speculation doesn't really help any.

Third post

: Llama and Sathoris scummy.

Fourth post

: BOTS townie, too many people alive to read. That ends N1. - not trusting own reads.

N2:

First post

: WTF idiots, Amrun was obvtown. Must reread. Will pay more attention in the future. - after the fact buddying, promising activity

Second post

: No time to reread, thinks it might be worth him claiming if I have to, hard to get good reads, MORE arguing about Amrun, DP and EGL look scummy. - see above

N3:

First post

: I had posted that I thought he was clear (because of gonnano's pushing for his id). He disagrees, saying that he could have told his partners not to recognize him. He reveals a crumb from a power role - why were you looking? Fonz is town. EGL is scum and should be lynched, unless we want to make him play for us. Asks about informative roles. - WIFOM, pr hunting x2, then he disappears.

By the way, just so I'm making this clear: I still believe smargaret is town, even though I think her case on me is bad. I think it is a false dichotomy to expect one scum in our neighborhood of two.

Stop buddying.

Feysal, why didn't you claim that you were smarg's neighbor?

It was like Sathoris said, I had no reason to. In fact, smargaret had anticipated the previous night that she would be wagoned, and said I should not claim if it happened. I would've claimed anyway if it became necessary to defend her, and said as much in our QuickTopic, but since her claim was enough to end the wagon on her, I stayed silent.

This is true, and it was the right play IMO.

smargaret is town. No question.

And that would make me scum because...? I obviously don't think that there would have to be scum in our neighborhood at all.

Pretty sure that's not what Steph was implying. Why do you think it was?

I feel that there is something off with this statement. You voted smargaret when she was wagoned, and unvoted only because you believed her claim. Now you're voting me, another neighbor, because of what exactly? I'm reminded of gonnano and his stances about Amrun and Bunnylover. He was really stretching historical truth when he tried to make Che Guevara look less like a threat than Joseph McCarthy. It all makes sense now. I think that his win condition was indeed to kill all non-Soviets, so he would gain nothing from Bunnylover's death. Either that, or he genuinely thought Amrun belonged to the other scum team. I feel that you could be NATO scum, and you'd want me dead rather than smargaret, because my death furthers the NATO scum win condition while smargaret's doesn't.

This is indeed possible. I've been suspicious of Steph for a while, and if I'm right and Feysal is soviet scum, that doesn't negate this quote.

[smargaret]

Fonz, I was looking at my role pm when I wrote that post. Furthermore, Erich Honnecker cannot be Soviet in nationality - that just wasn't true.

[smargaret]

And in that case I can just kill him at night. But since I'm not rival scum and have no nk, I have to take care of this during the day.

[smargaret]

Mod, seconding request for replacement of Feysal. The game is stalled until he comes back.

Sathoris, do you think Feysal's avoidance of the thread is pro-town? At what point will you be willing to vote him for the sake of getting the game moving again? This goes for everyone who is "waiting for Feysal to return."

I'm especially suspicious of the people waiting to hear Feysal's defense at this point because if there is another member of the Soviet scum team after Feysal, I'd bet they're in the avoiding the wagon group (Enigma gets a pass for the sake of catching up). I really think that this wagon is in danger of being derailed.

Fonz: Why are you voting Furc over Feysal? Isn't lynching scum preferable to LaL? Your posts in particular have looked like they're setting up to switch at the last possible minute?

Sathoris - that "a vote is a vote to lynch" is a load of bull hockey and you know it. Otherwise, what's RVS?

FOS: Sathoris

regardless of Feysal's flip - this is scummy without associative tells.

[smargaret]

Obviously not, if he's not posting.

[smargaret]

There is probably no more than one Soviet scum left; my suspicion is EGL for reasons stated yesterday. I need to reread for connections with SB.

Fonz:
1. The other mafia is US mafia. West German is neither Soviet nor US.
2. I had no choice in voting him either; what he said in the QT was suspicious enough to warrant outing him and then his own refusal to post confirmed it.
3. Why are you disregarding bastard modding after Che and McCarthy flipped town?
4. Clearly, you

do

hold the mislynch against someone.

[smargaret]

Fonz, I didn't lie. My role PM does not say that Feysal was the Soviet neighbor. However, there's no way of convincing you of that.

[smargaret]

Fonz, it's different because I'm trying not to quote my role PM.

My role PM lists Feysal's particular nationality. It is not "soviet". Given my claimed role PM, either Feysal was scum or the mod screwed up.

[smargaret]

See, that's what I did yesterday - I believed Feysal was scum rather than that the mod made a mistake. And now you want to lynch me for it.

[smargaret]

bvoigt - it took Feysal flipflopping on EGL for me to reread the QT, and then I realized how scummy the "trust me!" looked. I hadn't actually reread the QT until the start of yesterday, so I'd forgotten that.

PeregrineV's charts are bad. There's no analysis (this has been pointed out), and what's more, he only indicates scum and includes players currently living. Furc is on there twice, JMJ/Mothrax is on there but Fonz is listed separately, he doesn't list who's voted me, they're just bad. It's a transparent attempt to look like he's providing content.

As for setup, we need to try for US scum today, but that should be obvious.

Vote: PeregrineV

[smargaret]

And the fact that you have both JMJ/Mothrax and Fonz separately? Why wouldn't you wait to post the charts until you had them all done/had some analysis to go along with them? I think you actually left out the least useful information - you're just posting for the sake of posting.

[smargaret]

Happy Easter (except, apparently, for BotS who got dragged to the in-laws - glad I dodged that bullet!) and consequently I'm

v/la this weekend

I should have said something earlier, but I had churchy stuff to deal with and it slipped my mind until now.

[smargaret]

ThAd, make the case anyway. Not doing so is just lazy at this point.

[smargaret]

I don't know, why don't you tell us? Seriously, you've posted four times now without actually contributing anything.

[smargaret]

So Fonz, what are you going to say when I flip town?

[smargaret]

If I do flip town, are you willing to say you're scum? Or will you just say it must have been mod error/bastardry?

[smargaret]

That's because, like you, I saw the possibilities being Feysal scum, mod error, or bastard mod. Like you, I eliminated the latter to as less likely.

Like you, I was wrong.

[smargaret]

*shrug* So it's a conversation we should have post-game, but it's a conversation we will be having because he's doing the same thing I did yesterday and I want to know who's going to call him on it tomorrow.

[smargaret]

Enigma, why did you do that?

Furc, did you learn nothing from previous flips?

[smargaret]

ThAd, I got on the gonanno wagon at around 3 pm on a Saturday. He got at least three votes Saturday morning. You yourself pointed out that votes were really spread out - I had been voting/pushing Steph at the time - and when my alternate scumread became a viable wagon, I voted.

Look at my posting patterns - not just in this game, but around the site. I rarely post before 1-2 pm. There's no conclusion to draw from that wagon, and as you admitted, none of the others are particularly bad.

I do agree with the scumreads on DP/Peregrine, EGL, and bvoigt in that order.

[smargaret]

Oh, and

I'm going to be semi-LA until Monday afternoon due to a command performance with the in-laws

[smargaret]

Enigma, why are you trying to shut down the one bit of actual scumhunting going on today? While raw data without interpretation is meaningless and distracting, it is very unlikely that there's no scum on all of those wagons, and I actually agree with ThAd that we ought to be lynching out of that pool - even if it means you lynch me today.

[smargaret]

Peregrine - No, I don't think I'm the best lynch of the day, because I know my alignment (town) and I know we should lynch US scum today. I think we're better off lynching scum, and I think scum is likely in {you, EGL, bvoigt}. Also, you're line "scummy without being actual scum" sounds a lot like you know I'm town and you're trying to distance yourself from a mislynch.

Enigma - it's more than one wagon.

ThAd - what you said.

[smargaret]

There is so much mod-wifom on this page it's disgusting.

PeregrineV is the leading force behind it, too.

My vote remains.

[smargaret]

... earlier on this page I was town, now I'm scum.

I'll give those reads after you do the same.

[smargaret]

I actually would like to take a closer look at ThAd. The only reason he's remained clear in my mind is DP's "role related information" which was a lie, wasn't it? :-/ I need to actually reread him and make sure that townread is warranted. Is that kind of stunt something DP would pull for a scumbuddy?

I'm also suspicious of Fonz. He's completely abandoned his "You must be scum because Feysal flipped town" and his "LAL => Lynch Furc" and those are starting to look like scum going for the easy mislynch dropped for lack of interest.

Other scum - Peregrine for reasons explained previously and one of EGL/Bvoigt. Others are town.

I'm having computer trouble and will be limited in my ability to post until it's resolved. I will post at least once per day.

[smargaret]

ThAd - weren't EGL and Bvoigt the other two who came off poorly in your VCA?

Fonz - Maybe "completely" is the wrong word, but you're certainly all over the place with your policy lynches - and that's what they are, if you're lynching Furc for lying about his role (which he does all.the.time) and me for setting up a 1-1 on false mod-provided role information. We're scum only until something better comes along.

[smargaret]

I've said what I have to say. I don't know who's lying about their nationality; honestly, it's clear someone is and it doesn't really matter who. If you need to lynch me, then you need to lynch me - I'm basically vanilla at this point and Feysal's flip does make me look bad. I'm most confident in my reads on Peregrine, EGL, and Fonz.

Lowell, I'm a she, and I'm the one arguing against the setup shit. Remember?

[smargaret]

Feysal's PM

Hello Llamafluff and welcome to Cold War Mafia. You are

Erich Honecker, Soviet Neighbour

.

You're determined not to go to war and think you have an ally towards this end in your West-German neighbour Willy Brandt. Each night you can communicate with him here: http://www.quicktopic.com/45/H/SHKvrr2nxy83
Please confirm by quoting your role back to me in a PM.
You win when all threats to peace have been killed.

smargaret's PM

Hello smargaret and welcome to Cold War Mafia. You are Willy Brandt, West-German Neighbour.

You're determined not to go to war and think you have an ally towards this end in your

East-German neighbour Erich Honecker.

Each night you can communicate with him here: http://www.quicktopic.com/45/H/SHKvrr2nxy83
Please confirm by quoting your role back to me in a PM.
You win when all threats to peace have been killed.

*angryface*