Cold War Mafia - GAME OVER!!

[The Fonz]

Hey guys. I've got a job interview tomorrow I'm prepping for, so it might take me a while to get caught up. Fair warning.

[The Fonz]

First five pages of catch up. I'm finding this heavy going.

_____________________________________________

Poison Ivy proposing policy lynch of furc is not scummy. Undiplomatic- probtown. Don't actually agree, though- Furc does try to scumhunt as town, usually. If a player is trying to scumhunt or faking the same, I can at least try to read them. If I'm going to policy lynch anyone, it probably isn't him.

Also don't buy that thinking it's USTown vs Russcum is an indication of any kind of antitown American role. After all, American scum would presumably know that American scum existed...

None of the stuff XScorpion votes over is actually scummy.

Your blatant lack of knowledge about this set up is scummy

Yeah, lack of knowledge is such an informed minority tell...

EGL enters and random votes despite there being actual discussion. This shows a lack of scumhunting urgency.

Same problem with Stephoscope.

EGL then snaps to the scumhunting (again, I don't actually agree with it) which mitigates earlier concern.

OK, I guess I gotta stop commenting on anything I don't think is really major here, because otherwise I'll never catch up.

I'm not sure it's that hard for someone who has a Free World role PM to imagine that it is the Soviets who are the 'threat to peace.' This mistake is kinda unlikely from town, but I think it's more unlikely from scum as noted above.

Like Ghostwriter's better phrasing of the above point.

OK, so ThAd enters, answers Furcolow's RQS questions, and piggybacks someone else's reason to be on the biggest wagon. Oh yeah, not scum or anything. This is my early no1.

Smargaret also scummy for easy Furc vote. Bad reasons =/= scum.

Furc assuming scum can daytalk is... interesting. In Mafia in Mendo, I basically confirmed him as town because he assumed scum could daytalk (It's standard on the site he came from) even though it explicitly said in the rules that they couldn't. That he does the same again... eh, he's either scum or learnt absolutely nothing from experience. Problem is, he's Furc so the latter is perfectly possible.

Scumtell, not a scumslip, and it's based on my experience: the RQS that I've seen before were almost universally pitched by scum.

Hip Hop Mafia says hi (I was town, proposed it, scum attacked it). Though I think you might be right on the numbers. I can easily see Furc thinking it could help, though.

Actually this makes Fur amazingly likely to be town since scum would have known this, and probably pointed it out instead of saying "I just assumed scum have (full) daytalk"

*Sigh* LF was so obvtown. I'd probably have seen it like this, if I hadn't had the abovementioned experience with him.

Bvoight 108 - good point on gonnano. 'I've scumhunted badly in the past, so I'm not going to trust my reads' doesn't make any sense from a town POV.

I agree with Beasts' 110. Think Beasts' reasons for voting PI were much better than Artem's own.

Calling ThAd as opportunistic scum.

Pappums' rat's jump on furc is HORRIBLE.

Furc's openness about playing to survive feels like his town mindset. That said, I haven't actually ever seen his scumplay to compare.

@Furcolow: have you been scum yet? Can you link me please?

[The Fonz]

OK, could someone fill me in on the current issues, summaries of the cases behind the leading wagons etc? I don't want to be essentially inactive for what will probably be close to a week before I get caught up entirely.

[The Fonz]

To end P10 (I can't lie, i'm struggling to find the motivation here).

tual scumhunting from Lowell. Now, this places me in a quandary. The only game I've ever played with him where he tried, he was scum (the recently-finished Simpsons Mafia). Contrast that with how useless he was in Consulmaker as town. But I really don't want to lynch someone because they're scumhunting.

Though again, I think the actual point on Gonnano is weak... people who haven't posted at all in thread aren't particularly likely to be tactical lurkers.

I totally don't understand how people are QQ'ing about the 'speed' of PI's wagon when he hasn't even responded since it started.

This doesn't make any sense. It's precisely a wagon growing close to lynch before the wagonee has a chance to respond that should make a town player worried about it.

Then pretty much the rest of the page is the usual Furc fail. Nothing really to see here.

Furc seems to be living upto his anti-town reputation fairly well.

This is pretty scummy. Filler post. What do Furc's actions tell you about his alignment? What about the people wagoning him?

Scummy looking ThAd wagon jump.

But I can tell you that this is definitely not pro-town behavior:

Furcolow wrote:
vote: poisonivy for the reason of survival.

Disagree, as noted I think being open about it is a protown sign.

156 is pretty fillerish as well. Strong ThAd scum read right now.

Steph should expand on why bv's iso is scummy.

It is if you are town.

Actually, I believe the pro-town move in this situation would be for Furcolow to try to find scum, not to just push any wagon that isn't his. Especially since we've still got weeks until the deadline.

When you're as much of a VI as Furcolow, then your primary aim as town seems mostly to be not to get lynched Day one. Pressuring certain VIs, and especially this one, can be counterproductive, since they tend to go into their shells/ focus solely on defending/ OMGUS. If you wanna policy lynch him, policy lynch him, it's perfectly justifiable, what I don't like is people trying to make out that his usual playstyle actually makes him more likely to be scum.

If someone (a townie) read the possible mafia wincon (Rule #4), then yes, they'd notice their own wincon (Rule #3) and the fact that each player has an alignment, a nationality, and a role (Rule #2). This, of course, implies that alignment and nationality are separate.

Sure, but that doesn't rule out from the perspective of someone with a free world or third world role pm that the scum are all Soviet, nor that all Soviets are scum. It's quite possible that the town is multinational but that a scumgroup might be monoethnic. Until we have a Free world aligned scum flip or a Soviet town flip, this is all just speculation.

PI it's kind of hard to say I'm 'twisting everything [you] say' when what you say is pretty vague and hard to understand.

This is correct, though I got a 'deliberately picking the scummiest-sounding interpretation of everything' vibe off you earlier, which indicates blinkered town or railroading scum, I'm not sure yet. Though your previous post where you do ask for clarification mitigates.

Hmmm, Pappums looked like oppo scum with his first vote, but I like him better for his reaction to furc.

Ghostwriter does actually make a pretty good scum point on furc, the first I've seen- it's one thing to give up, it's another to play to survive, but to do both at once?

Hmmmm, don't like Beast's wall. Since you can't infer scum from furc's normal playstyle, you clearly can't infer obvtown either. He looked pretty town early on to me, but seems to be slipping back into furcidiocy.

Artem 199 comes across as sincere.

Hmmm, don't like Gonnano going 'Furc is antitown not scummy' then commenting at the bottom of the post. I don't see the sense in dwelling on his antitownness if you're not willing to vote for it, unless you're trying to set up a furc lynch down the road. Because, let's face it, he's Furc. HE WILL continue to play like this.

My lack of placing a vote is due to the fact that both the lead wagons are on two players who are clearly VI's.

And? Bvoight has this right. FIND SOME OTHER FUCKER THEN.

No doubt, most of, if not all, of the scum are on one wagon or the other by now.

Right. So. Who. Is. It. Then?

Good analysis.
I think goanna is a good person to look at tomorrow.

Why not today? Good God ThAdmiral is scummy. Like, srsly.

DP with an original vote. That looks somewhat good. Well, his reasoning is sheeping LF, but he's not following the herd. LOOK, IT MAKES SENSE IN MY HEAD OK?

gonnano keeping his options open I see.

Good Lowell point. Could it be that he's finally changed his playstyle? Please God.

I should probably note again at this point I don't think RQS is scummy per se, though I have seen scum do it. Seems to me when scum do it, it comes from a 'trying too hard to look town' place rather than a scum benefits from it place. RVS leads to wagons based on theory disagreements too- half the players say 'X is scummy, or scummy enough for an opening vote' and half the players say 'Hey what you talkin bout scum, that isn't even slightly scummy.'

Scott the MFY makes a good point re: jmj. Looks active lurky (J, not S).

Thing is, I think Pappums is a pretty big VI himself. At least, judging by his posts so far and txtmafia.

Oh Lord, PGO softclaim from PI.

[The Fonz]

OK, I'm going to

try

to avoid commenting on everything for the sake of catching up faster. to page 15:

Since when are anti-town and scummy the same thing? Some actions make no sense from scum or town, and some actions only make sense from scum.

This. There is a stark difference between someone who isn't helping town (anti-town) and someone who is scummy. Blurring the lines is sloppy scumhunting.

No, no it isn't. Anything antitown is at least somewhat scummy, because there's always the chance the player is hurting the town

because they want to hurt the town

and they think they can get away with it. Of course, with known VIs, the likelihood they're just being themselves makes it much, much less scummy.

Put it this way. If you had a VI who was being less antitown than normal. That'd be a towntell, right?

Also, you need to distinguish between things that are anti-town (ie, harmful to town but less harmful, neutral or even positive for scum) and things that are merely stupid and anti-self. Proposing D1 nolynches, for instance, is not actually antitown, because there's no way it's actually going to lead to a no-lynch happening.

/theory diversion

Don't like PapRat pre-emptively justifying wagoning lots of town.

Hence me counting Furcolow's staggering amount of anti-town statements against him as points toward scumminess.

To me, Furc's actually somewhat less antitown than normal here.

Gonnano's looking really scummy. He's gone for a lone wagon on a VI player who's actually playing better than normal, but isn't actually attacking any of the top three wagons. Says 'speed' of PI wagon is scummy, but doesn't point out any particular player on it as looking like a scummy wagon-jumper.

Don't like IPie attacking a good smargaret vote.

Pretty much agree with the GW points being made pages 11-12.

Someone is going to bullshittily try to make out that Furc's wagon hopping is a scumtell here. I guarantee it.

THAd is looking like he's genuinely scumhunting in the last page or two which makes me feel better about him.

Confident, don't care what people think of him Nacho is usually town.

Ewww, Artem votes someone for votehopping. Surprisingly, it isn't Furc. VOTEHOPPING IS NOT (in itself) A SCUMTELL PEOPLE!

IPie's defence of himself is good.

RC V. antitown for pointing out which names sound town and which sound scummy.

DP's inb4bussing post kind of makes me think he's scum, and she's town.

I don't know why I'm bothering. She's not even here defending herself.

Really suspicious-looking justification for jumping a scummy-looking wagon.

Thanks ThAd for supplying the Furc as scum meta.

[The Fonz]

Oh, you have got to be kidding me. That's the dumbest "case" I've ever seen.

bvoigt, that is scummiest backtrack ever.

Check out NY111. I didn't believe it then either. Town don't look at their predecessor, they get straight to scumhunting. Gonna try to get to page 21 before I go to bed tonight.

[The Fonz]

OK, to end page 21. There's far less that seems worthy of comment, people just seem to be Mastining their various positions. Will note that while I agree with Feysal on the principle of not letting VIs get away with it, Furc does appear to be... trying here, and is quite open and honest in his idiocy. I will try to meta him when I get the humungous catchup done. (Gonna have somewhat LA over the weekend, will be at my parents', but will def try to do at least another 5-10 pages).

______________________________________________________________________________________________

LMP seems to be thinking in a town way here. People a lot of players criticize but next to no-one actually votes are often scum. He's wrong in this instance, of course, but it's a good argument.

Dear God GW, if you're going to argue that your no1 is not viable, make a motherloving stand between whichever wagons you think ARE.

Then he votes anyway, wtf?

Basically agree with 386 (the text, not the scumlist, which I tend to ignore anyway).

Artem feels very middle of the pack to me. Lots of words, very little wrong with it, but nothing that would be particularly difficult for a scum to do either.

ThAd 437: Blah blah blah, excuses.

... I don't policy lynch.

This is a scum lynch; not a policy lynch.

Just to be clear, most policy lynches are because you think the player doing them is scum (that is, you find the action so scummy that it alone is worth lynching over). That's the original meaning of policy lynch.

[The Fonz]

OK. I've dropped the note-taking entirely in favor of just freaking getting to the stage where I can start participating properly.

Vote: Furculow

Early on, he looked like he was trying. But honestly, all the lying (and the fact that he only owned up to it when he was caught in a slip) and his increasingly erratic behaviour makes me think he's deliberately trying to go all out, as VI as possible, so that people make excuses for him. I often state that when you've got a mega VI, they have to look more town than their average to make me suffer them to live. And Furc looks even worse than usual over the last thirty pages. The bottom line is that, since it doesn't look like anyone's going to put a bullet in what passes for his brain- certainly, if he's town, he's not someone scum will kill, and you woulda thunk a vig would have had a shot by now if they were going to. Which means we either have to lynch him, or have him around in LyLo. Furc in LyLo would make me shudder if he were confirmed. And he's not close to it.

Also, it's not fucking AdHom just to call you an idiot. It's good sense. It would be AdHom if someone were trying to discredit a valid argument you made because it came from you (along the lines of you're a moron, therefore it can't be true). Of course, that would require you to actually formulate a valid argument, so I'm not holding my breath.

Other things: The way ThAd framed the him vs Amrun dilemma as 'My town sounding rolename' vs 'His scum sounding rolename' I don't like. Thinking maybe Kissinger is a safeclaim, or else a less obvious scum name (actually, not that un-obvious. His name, along with Nixon and LBJ, struck me as the most likely to be American scum if there was such a group). But since we don't actually know for sure there is an American scumgroup (it's not beyond the realms of possibility that there be, say, an American SK) and because his scumhunting on Day Two i felt was much better, he's not a priority.

Gonnano... meh. He certainly looked scummy early on, but a lot of the case against him seems to be 'too defensive.' And I FUCKING HATE the too defensive argument.

DP is scummy for all the obvious reasons. RedCoyote is someone I think might be good scum. The kind who has a good, town-sounding excuse for everything he does, but doesn't give me the sense he's really trying hard to find scum. A la Benmage in Simpsons mafia.

[The Fonz]

Fonz, RedCoyote flipped. He was a town vig.

Oops.

Can someone put the smargaret case in a nutshell for me?

[The Fonz]

I've read the ISO. All I see is some votehopping, really.

[The Fonz]

UNVOTE: smargaret

Brandt does look pretty peaceful.

LOL. Having succeeded wonderfully with a couple of 'That sounds like a warlike name!1!' wagons, are we going to see a wagon die on the basis of 'that sounds like a peaceful name?' I mean, don't get me wrong, i don't really see how anything smarg has done is worse than the equivalent actions from DP. But letting someone you think is scum off the hook because of their name... man.

If smarg is truthful, then the fact that Brandt is a neighbour rather than a mason makes me think a Yanqui scum group is likely.

the fonz = jmj
wonderful
now i know why hes voting me

Yeah, and you being a horrific detriment to town, and the guy who pointed out you playing to your scum meta having been NKed aren't good reasons or anything.

Would it make sense to say that, regardless of Smarg's alignment, there's probably some sort of scum on the Smarg wagon IFF there are two scum groups?

If that's the case, there's probably scum on all the wagons. The thing is, unless you've got a strong inclination that there's a particularly large or small concentration, that's of little use. Because knowing that there is at least one scum in ten people doesn't narrow it down any more than random lynching would.

[The Fonz]

I think we need to consider some ways to use smarg's roleclaim to our advantage. Neighbor makes plenty of sense as a mafia fakeclaim, for obvious reasons, and even though Scott says he's never seen it before, I'm sure it's been done.

If smarg's neighbor/scumbuddy decides to confirm smarg's claim, then we can be pretty certain that the two people are linked. If one of the two later flips mafia, then we've got a guaranteed scum. So I think that would be a good idea to move forward with.

This stinks. As BV said, the whole freaking point of neighbours is that one can be scum when the other's town. Or even rival scum. I've never seen a scum claim neighbor who wasn't (though actually, come to think of it it's a brilliant idea). If he flipped scum, it probably would confirm that the two are connected- like, by being neighbours.

Also:

If smarg is truthful, then the fact that Brandt is a neighbour rather than a mason makes me think a Yanqui scum group is likely.

Can you explain this some more? I'm having trouble making the connection.

Neighbours usually get each other's rolenames. If it were a one-scumgroup game and they were soviets, it would become pretty obvious to the (presumably East German) neighbour that Willy Brandt is not Soviet, because that would require a leap of flavour magnitudes bigger than even the ones we've seen so far. It's far, far more likely an East German neighbour would be unsure as to whether his partner is an American stooge or not.

[The Fonz]

I'd feel guilty, but given your track record a suicide attempt on your part would likely end up granting you immortality or something.

[The Fonz]

To those advocating 'Bvoight and Gonnano' as suspects- would the alignment of either influence your view of the other? IE, do you think their interactions look scumbuddyish, or do you think each is a top suspect independent of the other?

Personally, Gonnano doesn't look that scummy. But Bvoight doesn't look scummy at all to me.

[The Fonz]

I would rather lynch Gonnano than Bvoigt, Fonz.
Reasoning is sort of weak, as it relies on how many wagons have been attempted on Gonnano yet stalled/failed/fizzled

That's actually a pretty decent reason. Though I think his individual scumminess has been blown out of proportion. I'd lynch him over BV, who probably isn't in the top third of the scummiest players in the game for me, but I'd rather lynch you, DP or ThAd in that order before him.

[The Fonz]

Did I miss the DP lie? What was that? Oh well, ISO here i come.

[The Fonz]

Oh right, role-related info on ThAd. He actually admitted it rather than was caught, though. Furc is worse because he was actually caught in a lie, and initially refused to admit it, and then changed his claim when it looked like that wasn't working.

[The Fonz]

I'm not aware of it being standard Furc fare, though. I've seen him tunnel, omgus, use fail logic, talk about ongoing games and completely fail to read the rules, but lying about his role is bad even for him.

[The Fonz]

Oh, and quickhammer claimed cops. Can't forget that one.

[The Fonz]

the only time i have ever claimed doctor as scum i really was a doctor
why would i retract my claim as scum
that makes no sense

WIFOM

i just dont see the motivation for my play as scum

WIFOM

if you all feel i'm a lylobility, go for it,

I do

but now is the time for OMGUSING for me because the only people pushing me will be on one of the scum teams trying to confuse town into thinking a mislynch is applicable with 4v3 on the scumteams

BULLSHIT. THERE IS

EVERY

REASON FOR TOWN TO WANT YOU DEAD. Like Llamafluff did, before he was nightkilled N1.

you know, it isn't
you're stuck with me, town
don't be dumb and play into this bullshit

unvote;
vote:

jmj

the fonz

OMGUS, and admitting it doesn't make it better

Anyone remember the d1 jmj wagon where the guy lurked and then replaced?
Wonder why someone is pushing me, acting like my meta isn't horrible as town?
Scum.

Your last sentence doesn't even make sense. A guy who lurks then flakes out is clearly someone who didn't have time or motivation to play rather than a tactical lurker, that's grade A scummy mudslinging there. I've never said your meta isn't horrible. I would say you're the worst player ever, but sadly I've played with Ah2190, Shotty, and Mist, so you're not even top three. What your meta has not to my knowledge included is lying about your role as town.

My name on this site is synonymous with lynch all liars. That is, I believe that the majority of people who lie about their roles are scum, and trying to make excuses for particular liars costs more games in terms of letting lying scum off the hook than mislynching a few idiotic townies does.

Even by the standards of people who lie about their roles, your lie became public knowledge in a particularly scummy way- you slipped, then tried to pretend it wasn't a big deal, then admitted it and changed your claim to try to save yourself. People who do that are just overwhelmingly, like 90% of the time, scum. Your general level of idiocy might make it less likely than that, but to me you're still pretty much as likely as anyone in the game to be scum. Which coupled with the fact that if you're town, you're less useful than Miley Cyrus in an acting competition, makes me want you dead. When I play with VIs, generally I'm happy to lynch them unless I've got a concrete reason to think them more likely than a random lynch to come up town. With you, you're a VI who has more reason than the average player to think you scum.

[The Fonz]

It's about time I got something done in this game. I've been combing through Artem's ISO and certain other parts of the game trying to get reads, and I've had some limited success. For starters, Furcolow.

Amazingly, I've reached the conclusion that Furcolow is probably town after all. Despite all his lies and scummy play. The main reason is that Furcolow claimed Heydar Aliyev, and though he has repeatedly changed his role claim, his name claim has remained constant.

Why would you need to change your nameclaim, though? I mean, each change just increases the chances of counterclaiming. He only changed the bits of his claim

on which he was called out as a liar.

I don't see anything that couldn't have been a bus at either end between those two. As for the rest of your list, I wouldn't be so sure. I mean, the notion that scum don't bus unless they have to doesn't really hold, I don't think.

[The Fonz]

Yeah if you claim and information role you MUST give results and reasons why you chose those people.

The problem with claiming watcher results is that, if you see someone visit your target, and the target didn't die, chances are those players are town power roles, and claiming results will out them. Regardless, there's no reason not to at the very least list the players watched and how many visited them each night.

I have to say, I am very skeptical of this claim. For starters, the way he claimed- not only did he not give results, he didn't give flavor justification. Now I know, OGM, and I could certainly see the rolename as town or scum, but I have a real hard time seeing Kadar as a power role. Kadar was the Hungarian dictator put in place by the Soviets after they crushed the Nagy-led Hungarian Revolution in the 50s, and he basically stayed in power by keeping his head down, introducing some mild liberalizing reforms but not rocking the boat too much.

[The Fonz]

FEYSAL? EGL sure, but Feysal has given plenty of content. In other news,

Vote: Furc

, lynch all liars still applies.

[The Fonz]

this wagon has had the amount of opposition I would expect from the 3 man team if Fonz is Gonnano's ally and is distancing

I'm going to keep my vote here, and hope that the 3 man team gets knocked down to 2 here and the Fonz is outted associatively through not wanting to place his vote on Gonnano even if he doesn't really believe the claim in his #1792

It's of note that Fonz is taking over the town and pushing them against me/protecting Gonnano, though so I could argue both sides of the coin.

With gonnano's flip I think Furcolow hit the nail on the head (bolded emphasis mine).

Yeah, this is a great point, apart from it being utterly untrue. I made my vote for Furc when there was only one vote on Gonnano, and six on smargaret. The idea that I pushed Furcolow 'to save Gonnano' does not jibe with even a cursory reading of the game. Considering that no-one new joined the Furc wagon after I did, it would also be a stretch to suggest that I 'took over the town.' When the gonanno wagon sprung up, I continued to push Furc because not one iota of my reason for voting him had gone- people who lie about their roles, and especially people who get caught out lying rather than coming clean, are overwhelmingly often scum, therefore they must be lynched as a policy. It's a strange world in which 'Fonz did not change his behaviour in reaction to a Gonnano wagon springing up' is an associative tell with Gonnano.

Before the Gonnano wagon came along, I stated that I found Gonnano scummy early on, but that overall I found the case on him to be somewhat overblown relative to say, DavidParker, who had done pretty much everything bad Gonnano did AND lied about his role.

Can I at least ask people this: if ThAd turns out to be scum, will people at least very strongly consider killing DP for 'clearing' him, then retracting it later when the danger had gone?

As for the claim, I've seen too many dumbass quicklynches in my recent town games to risk another one here, given that Gonnano claimed power. I mean, were you really expecting me to vote a claimed PR before he'd even given results, based mostly on flavor when we've seen just how effective trying to outguess the mod has been so far? Plus, people's reactions to claims are some of the best evidence you can get. I was in no mood to cut the day short before as many people as possible had commented. Finally, note that Gon flipped goon, not scum watcher, so a buddy would have known he didn't have real results to save him. Do you really think a buddy of Gonnano's there wouldn't have realized that he was going down, hard?

To those advocating 'Bvoight and Gonnano' as suspects- would the alignment of either influence your view of the other? IE, do you think their interactions look scumbuddyish, or do you think each is a top suspect independent of the other?

Personally, Gonnano doesn't look that scummy. But Bvoight doesn't look scummy at all to me.

Fishing for relationships on people you don't find scummy? This is clearly trying to determine how to maneuver to benefit his and gonnano's team in the event that it heads that direction (collateral damage?).

Or, you know, blatantly obviously genuine scumhunting. When lots of people say 'Bvoight today, Gonnano tomorrow' there can be several things behind it. They can genuinely think they're scum and connected to each other. They can think they are both scum, but completely unconnected. And, in particular, they can be Gonnano buddies who are claiming to think Gonnano is scum with links to Bvoight, but looking to use a Bvoight town flip as an excuse to stop bussing their buddy. I was suspicious of people making these kind of statements because I had a town read on bvoight, therefore either the latter scenario or lining up lynches were both possible motivations for those making those kind of comments. I wanted to pin these players down.

Then, 1737 - 1739, his three posts are all just really slandering Furcolow based on past games, and the third comment is just trying to add icing on the cake to cement it as a legitimate alternative to the gonnano wagon.

This is disingenuous. People were meta defending Furcolow. I was pointing out that, of all the VI behaviour I have seen from him in the past (played two games with him, and read another as meta during one of those), I have never seen him lie about his role as town. I am quite happy to defend Furc when I think, in spite of his VI nature, he looks town. I was doing it during my early catchup posts, before he lied about his role, and I did it in Mafia in Mendo when Furc made his 'assuming scum have daytalk' townslip. The point I am making is that Furc is particularly antitown and scummy in this game, even for him. If we don't lynch him here, it's difficult to imagine what he could actually do that would lead anyone to ever vote him.

Mothrax also advocates for his desire to see gonnano's flip above all else with no other commentary about the player slot otherwise, and this comment shortly after having declared confusion over Amrun/PI still being alive. Then mothrax said in the interest of deadlines he would be voting Amrun/PI...

Well, that comment was pretty thorough. More to the point, though, 'Is lurking, and not getting heat for it' is good town reasoning, I use it a lot. Generally, when there are multiple people committing a particular scummy act, and other players focus on some of them to the exclusion of others, that is an associative tell. It's the exact same reasoning Lowell used to kick off the Gonnano wagon yesterday.

Feysel certainly did not provide all that much.
He has hardly voted

this entire game

.

Feysal's ISO 28 imho contained as much content as anything anyone else did all day.

wow, two wagons i LOVE
glad this game is back open

fonz REPLACED JMJ. Remember that wagon on d1? I can't believe it died!
[/b]

You mean, a wagon on a player that was largely based on the fact that he wasn't posting much, then he got replaced? Yeah, why on Earth would that ever die.

[The Fonz]

As for the votes that aren't Furc and aren't me, I rank them EGL > Steph >> Bvoight.

[The Fonz]

I like beasts' case on Fonz. Sorta fits with what I was thinking, that fonz seems somehow different in this game than in others I've played with him.

I've completed two games with you since I returned to the site, and in one of those I was scum. Apart from the fact I replaced in, I don't really see how my play here is too different to Simpsons, except for maybe that people actually listened to me there when I told them to wagon the scummy looking VI.

Of the other two leaders, feysal lynch makes a lot more sense than EGL. Hammering two town isn't great, but to some extent I'd say at least it shows courage and looks better than just riding the wagon somewhere in the middle. That's WIFOM like whoa, I realize, but it's enough to make me call the hammers a null tell.

You could also argue that taking a stand on a wagon earlier requires more courage in your convictions than jumping on to hammer. In general, though, Feysal looks like he's doing his damnedest to help the town when he does post, whereas EGL looks like he's coasting. The latter, imho, is a MUCH better wagon.

[The Fonz]

* Since YOU returned, not I returned.

[The Fonz]

Watch for PeregrineV unvoting Fonz soon if his wagon picks up

So now you're basing your suspicion on something that might hypothetically happen, but actually hasn't? Furc, considering your original case on me was mostly based on 'ties' to Gonnano, to drop that and still be making out I'm scum seems dishonest to me. Massive confirmation bias at best.

[The Fonz]

Care to explain that, LMP?

[The Fonz]

'I've decided that your play is scummy' is not an explanation, it just moves the question one along the line: WHY is my play scummy? What has changed in the page or so since you thought my rebuttal was spot on?

[The Fonz]

Except that I haven't disregarded everything else. I've made clear my position on Feysal (townish) and EGL (scummy). I'm not going to throw four years of being an ardent Lynch All Liars advocate out the window because some other people have a town read on Furc, but I'm also clearly not using it as an excuse to avoid commenting on other issues. Also, if I'm attacked by something I don't think is fair or reasonable, of course I'm going to point it out.

If someone were to say 'Look, Gonnano was really obvious scum, and I can't believe Fonz didn't spot it' that would at least be a decent argument, because when a scum is lynched it is usually better to look off-wagon unless they're really, really obv. But to claim that I'm playing differently when I'm not, that I'm ignoring issues unrelated to self-defence or Furc being scum when I've clearly made my views on the other available wagons known, to claim a link with another player on the basis of something he may or may not do in the future- these are terrible excuses to attack someone, and I'm going to make that known.

[The Fonz]

No access until saturday.

[The Fonz]

I'm back, and should be up to speed shortly.

[The Fonz]

So on Day four of a large theme game, other than your Furc pushing, you've commented on Feysal and EGL. But you're not hiding behind Furc. Yeah, ok...

I really don't understand what you're pushing here. I've commented on as many different players today as anyone alive.

Do you have opinions on anyone else?

Like you, I'm not sure I understand the Fonz wagon. I remember losing to him once when he was scum, though, so I'm going to go back and see if anything seems to match. Stay tuned.

OH HAI "I don't really find Fonz scummy, but I'll look for an excuse to jump the wagon if it gets close to lynch."

.

Yeah, this is a great point, apart from it being utterly untrue. I made my vote for Furc when there was only one vote on Gonnano, and six on smargaret. The idea that I pushed Furcolow 'to save Gonnano' does not jibe with even a cursory reading of the game.

You are over simplifying the situation by only looking at the snapshot of when you first voted Furcolow. Even when gonnano's wagon was building you did not comment on it other than saying you didn't think gonnano was scum.

No, I'm not. You contended that I was pushing Furc to save Gonnano. I was using the exact same arguments to push Furc when Gonnano was at threat as when Smargaret was at threat. The Gonnano wagon was available when I voted Furc first, but I preferred the Furcwagon. To my mind, when you accuse someone of 'pushing X to save Y' it implies that saving Y is the major motivation behind your push of X. And that doesn't make any sense since I was pushing Furc with the exact same line of reasoning I was before Gonnano was in danger.

Incidentally, I never said I didn't think Gonnano was scum. I had a neutral-ish, mildly scummy read on him, but thought others were much scummier and that the case on him was overblown. I said I thought Bvoight was explicitly town.

Then you kept pushing at Furcolow for other game related reasons as to build more of a case even though his previous play has nothing to do with the reasons you were currently voting Fucolow (he lied repeatedly). What was the point of bringing up hammer claimed cops and talking about ongoing games other than to smear him?

To point out that I am well aware of Furc's rep for idiocy and erratic play, and that that wasn't why I was voting him: specifically, that I felt his play in this game was specifically scummy even taking into account my meta knowledge of him, because a) Despite all the stupid things I'd seen him do, lying as town wasn't one of them and b) his lies in this game seemed particularly survival-orientated and therefore scummy: claiming BP has obvious motive for scum wanting to avoid potential rival scum's nightkills, and claiming doctor when caught out seems designed to avoid getting lynched, and c) he didn't change his claim spontaneously, as you might expect someone just being erratic to do; he changed it in response to being caught in a lie, which is what you'd expect scum to do.

And the point about others meta defending him is disingenuous as well because I read the "meta defending" as not look at these specific behaviors in comparison with other games but rather the overall playstyle, erratic behavior, and unpredictability and not the emulation of the same things from previous games.

It's not disengenuous at all. Specific VIs have specific ways of being VIish. Early ABR lied about his role as town all the time. MafiaSSK lurks like a mofo and doesn't give content. Other VIs omgus constantly or sheep all the time. You can't throw a generic 'VI' blanket over someone and therefore allow them to do anything antitown they want.

Finally, note that Gon flipped goon, not scum watcher, so a buddy would have known he didn't have real results to save him. Do you really think a buddy of Gonnano's there wouldn't have realized that he was going down, hard?

You make an interesting point about gonnano not flipping his claimed role. Do you think one of his partners is a watcher and he claimed those results or was he going for complete BS in hopes he was correct in nobody visiting the people he claimed?

The former is only really possible if LMP is his partner and decided that he was going down despite the claim so he might as well get some town cred. If the scum had actual watching results and LMP wasn't his partner, he wouldn't have got caught out on his claim.

To answer your question what would the scum buddy do at the point, knowing he was claiming something false? The partner could:

• Call him a liar and say he's lying about his role;
  
• Hammer him without the claimed results, knowing whatever results he made were either totally fake or actual results from another team member;
  
• Avoid the thread and see what happens; or,
  
• Stall a little bit, be wishy washy on whether or not his real or not and hope that people wouldn't want to hammer a claimed watcher.

What does the fake claim of gonnano's have to do with gonnano's partner(s) knowing he is going down hard?

Claiming BS results and hoping no-one counterclaims them is incredibly risky relative to claiming actual watching results.

Gonnano was going down hard regardless of his claim being real or not, which is obvious by the fact that his claim did relatively nothing to deter his wagon.

If you really believe this, then why do you think it was scummy

[quote="BOTS"}

Or, you know, blatantly obviously genuine scumhunting. When lots of people say 'Bvoight today, Gonnano tomorrow' there can be several things behind it. They can genuinely think they're scum and connected to each other. They can think they are both scum, but completely unconnected. And, in particular,

they can be Gonnano buddies who are claiming to think Gonnano is scum with links to Bvoight, but looking to use a Bvoight town flip as an excuse to stop bussing their buddy

. I was suspicious of people making these kind of statements because I had a town read on bvoight, therefore either the latter scenario or lining up lynches were both possible motivations for those making those kind of comments. I wanted to pin these players down.

You actually had a town read on both, so in that context where and how were you scumhunting with that line of questioning? The bolded is exactly what I believe you to have been doing. You were determining the public opinion of those two to figure out the best way to push it through. Maybe I have it backwards and you and bvoit are partners, but asking for the suspicion level of the pair when both of them are town (in your opinion) is scummy because you should have been advocating for them being town instead. [/quote]

I didn't claim a town read on both. The more town of the two imho (Bvoight) was the one people were trying to lynch first. The bolded doesn't even make sense. You think I'm scum with Gonnano, and was trying to use the 'Well bvoight was town so now I don' suspect Gonnano no more' kind of argument argument when I made quite clear I THOUGHT BVOIGHT WAS TOWN IN THE FIRST PLACE, and therefore never bought into any kind of 'Bvoight and Gonnano' theory?

Also, it never hurts to ask people to put their reasoning behind 'X, then Y' statements out in the open. It's easier as you put it to 'advocate for someone being town' when you know what the case people are trying to make on them is.

[The Fonz]

Sorry for triple post:

Gonnano was going down hard regardless of his claim being real or not, which is obvious by the fact that his claim did relatively nothing to deter his wagon.

If you really believe this, then why do you think it was scummy of me not to vote Gonnano, when you seem to think it was obvious he couldn't be saved anyway? If what you say is true, there's very little downside to a partner bussing there.

[The Fonz]

Furc, that you were acting like you didn't think there was a second scumgroup doesn't mean the possibility wasn't discussed in your QT. Also, claiming BP might protect you from being vigged, which is an obvious danger for furcscum.

I still don't like the Feysal wagon. If no-one's willing to join me on Furc, or to wagon Peregrine who also lied, I will support a Steph or EGL wagon in opposition.

[The Fonz]

I have role-related information that ThAd is town at this point. Will not reveal further.

BTW, I have no reason to believe ThAd is town, that was all baloney earlier.

Peregrine, this is where your slot lied.

As for Steph, he's kinda lurkish, and he's tunnelling on a player I think is town. That's a much better lynch than Feysal.

As for Steph's 'Did you miss this?' I was posting as I went along with my immediate reactions. That said, your later backing off doesn't really strike me as particularly significant either way.

[The Fonz]

I get the feeling there is something weird going on here. Think about it, there were tons of non Soviet or US nationalities flipped by then, so we can't reasonably suppose Feysal is 'East German Soviet Mafia' who thought that everyone was either US or Soviet. Gonnano claimed to be Hungarian, not Soviet or Soviet Hungarian. Therefore, it's likely that particular scum group knew all too well that the safe thing to do was to claim the nationality but not the soviet modifier, in which case he would just have claimed East German neighbor.

Feysal isn't a VI. It's not reasonable to assume he was scum who was unaware of the above. Therefore, the most likely reason I can think of to claim to be a 'Soviet Neighbor' is

that's what his PM actually says.

That leaves a couple of possibilities. Mod error, intentional bastardry, one or other didn't read the PM properly, or that Smargaret is lying.

The 'we should trust each other' thing does give me pause, and I'd like an explanation of that, but I'd also like both to request mod clarification here, because something isn't adding up. If Smargaret comes back and says 'Yes the mod has re-iterated that Feysal's rolename is East German' and Feysal comes back and says 'Mod has confirmed my rolename is soviet, not East German' then we have an either/or since the alternative would be directly lying to the players. But I want to exhaust all other possibilities first.

[The Fonz]

Fonz, I was looking at my role pm when I wrote that post. Furthermore, Erich Honnecker cannot be Soviet in nationality - that just wasn't true.

It just strikes me as a really, really bizarre kind of mistake for a remotely competent scum player to make.

[The Fonz]

Fonz, I was looking at my role pm when I wrote that post. Furthermore, Erich Honnecker cannot be Soviet in nationality - that just wasn't true.

It just strikes me as a really, really bizarre kind of mistake for a remotely competent scum player to make.

It's not so obvious that it would definitely have been picked up. I doubt if smarg hadn't mentioned it anyone else would have noticed.

I completely disagree with this. I mean, it's pretty common knowledge Honecker was East German. My immediate reaction to a 'Soviet neighbor' claim was 'well that's weird.' More to the point,

a member of the Soviet mafia

was aware enough of it already to claim nationality-only.

That's a good point, Sathoris, it makes me not even want to be Fey-stalling with my vote

It's not a good point, regardless of what the role PM said, Honecker was East German, and lived his entire life in Germany/East Germany (apart from a year spent in Moscow) until the fall of the wall. If you're going to breadcrumb Honecker, of course you'd breadcrumb East German. If you breadcrumbed Russian, someone would go 'Why did you crumb Russian when your role is a German person?' and use that as an argument for him being scum. This just underlines my point- Feysal's crumb makes it explicitly clear he knew exactly who Honecker was, and what his nationality was.

In order for that to be a slip, Feysal would have to be paying absolutely no attention to the thread, and the scum would have to not have discussed fakeclaiming at all in their QT (or Feysal didn't pay attention there, too).

At the end of the day, if both players stick to their stories as stated so far, we've got no choice but to lynch Feysal. But it still strikes me that there's something fishy here.

[The Fonz]

At the end of the day, if both players stick to their stories as stated so far, we've got no choice but to lynch Feysal. But it still strikes me that there's something fishy here.

I'm not crazy about the "we've got no choice" bit here. It's preparing for a move to the wagon but if the flip goes the other way it's like "well, we had no choice...".

I'm trying to work out what your actual problem is here. Do you not think you should always lynch in non-lylo situations where two players claim contradicting role information, especially when neither is a 'power role' per se? Is it not a no-brainer? And do you really think it matters whether I personally join this wagon or not? I have made quite clear that I have a town read on Feysal. Nonetheless, if this is

not

a case of player or mod error, we have two players claiming contradicting information.

@The Fonz- I have no idea why David Parker lied. Why do you think he lied?

The most obvious explanation would be to protect his buddy ThAd. The second most obvious is to buddy up to ThAd-town. Both of those are more likely than 'He really thought ThAd was town and it was worth the risk' because the risk there is HUGE for town.

Incidentally, I never said I didn't think Gonnano was scum. I had a neutral-ish, mildly scummy read on him, but thought others were much scummier and that the case on him was overblown. I said I thought Bvoight was explicitly town.

I read "gonnano isn't that scummy" as "he's not worth pushing a lynch on" and "he's not as scummy as everyone else thinks" and "he's pretty much not scum".

The first two follow, then the third is just a massive leap. If I thought he wasn't scummy at all, I would have said so. Look at my catchup post. I found his early behaviour troubling, but later on the arguments against him seemed to be blown out of all proportion. He was probably in the top half of scummiest players, but there were something like 4-5 people I wanted dead sooner, and I was uncomfortable with people trying to tie him to bvoight, who again, I read as town.

No, I'm not. You contended that I was pushing Furc to save Gonnano. I was using the exact same arguments to push Furc when Gonnano was at threat as when Smargaret was at threat. The Gonnano wagon was available when I voted Furc first, but I preferred the Furcwagon. To my mind, when you accuse someone of 'pushing X to save Y' it implies that saving Y is the major motivation behind your push of X. And that doesn't make any sense since I was pushing Furc with the exact same line of reasoning I was before Gonnano was in danger.

To point out that I am well aware of Furc's rep for idiocy and erratic play, and that that wasn't why I was voting him: specifically, that I felt his play in this game was specifically scummy even taking into account my meta knowledge of him

, because a) Despite all the stupid things I'd seen him do, lying as town wasn't one of them and b) his lies in this game seemed particularly survival-orientated and therefore scummy: claiming BP has obvious motive for scum wanting to avoid potential rival scum's nightkills, and claiming doctor when caught out seems designed to avoid getting lynched, and c) he didn't change his claim spontaneously, as you might expect someone just being erratic to do; he changed it in response to being caught in a lie, which is what you'd expect scum to do.

I think your are going out of your way to interpret your previous posts incorrectly. Your post here barely assigns motive only to his behavior being isolated to this game because you said "but this behavior is bad even for him".

Wait, what? This statement here is basically a paraphrase of 'his behaviour in this specific games stands out as scummy, even given his meta' and yet it's like you're trying to act like it's a contradiction of it. It implies knowledge of his meta, and that his play in this game stands out as being particularly bad ie scummy.

And that doesn't make any sense with your afterthought here.

Seriously, wtf? How does adding another example of erratic play that I'm aware of (therefore elaborating on the fact that I am all too familiar with Furc's meta) contradict

anything

in the earlier point? Essentially, my explanation here, being true, makes perfect sense. Your interpretation of it doesn't make any sense whatsoever. Your argument is basically that I was doing the exact opposite of what I was actually doing: trying to get Furc lynched for merely being his erratic self when quite obviously, the whole point of bringing up Furc's erratic meta in the first place was to make clear that I was NOT doing precisely this- his play in this game stood out as scummy with full knowledge of his tendency to be erratic.

The former is only really possible if LMP is his partner and decided that he was going down despite the claim so he might as well get some town cred. If the scum had actual watching results and LMP wasn't his partner, he wouldn't have got caught out on his claim.

You are downplaying the situation considerably. If gonnano wasn't lynched and was a claimed watcher how long do you really think he would have survived until endgame and never been revealed?

Again, what's your actual point here? I said 'Well his partners would have known he was going down due to the watcher thing, and therefore it would have been really easy to bus.' Your counterargument appears to be 'No, it would have been really easy to bus anyway.' How does this make me not voting him any scummier? If anything, it just strengthens my point.

Claiming BS results and hoping no-one counterclaims them is incredibly risky relative to claiming actual watching results.

Which is why I asked you if you thought he was on a scum team with an actual watcher. Do you think that is the case or not?

And I thought i'd answered this. Emphatically not, for obvious reasons.

I didn't claim a town read on both. The more town of the two imho (Bvoight) was the one people were trying to lynch first. The bolded doesn't even make sense. You think I'm scum with Gonnano, and was trying to use the 'Well bvoight was town so now I don' suspect Gonnano no more' kind of argument argument when I made quite clear I THOUGHT BVOIGHT WAS TOWN IN THE FIRST PLACE, and therefore never bought into any kind of 'Bvoight and Gonnano' theory?

I started looking at you more closely when I was reading back over gonnano, but as I said it isn't out of the realm of possibility that you may be scum with bvoit. In either situation you determining which order others find them scummy is scummy because you should have been advocating for your solid town read and the person who "isn't that scummy" to not be lynched; not weigh out the order in which people would like to lynch them.

But again, this is a really reachy, confirmation bias-y argument. It's simple. I wanted the people attacking them to explain themselves, and commit to a position. Which is protown. It's like you read it and thought 'Well how can I make Fonz asking this question sound scummy?'

[The Fonz]

@The Fonz- I have no idea why David Parker lied. Why do you think he lied?

The most obvious explanation would be to protect his buddy ThAd.

The second most obvious is to buddy up to ThAd-town

. Both of those are more likely than 'He really thought ThAd was town and it was worth the risk' because the risk there is HUGE for town.

So, by the bolded part above, you know ThAd is town?

Hi, blatant weaselly semantic misrepresentation!

The second possibility requires ThAd to be town, but the first requires him to be scum. The point being, it's really scummy either way. Can you not read, or do you just have dodgy motives?

[The Fonz]

There are fairly obvious reasons why PV isn't going to go with a 'Fonz knows DP was scum' argument.

[The Fonz]

My point exactly. No-one with remotely normal reading comprehension and honorable intentions would have tried to paint it that way. So it's either simply gigantic literacy failure, or dishonesty.

[The Fonz]

And, to anyone reading, is there a difference?

No, clearly there isn't. The only thing you've changed is to add the word 'scum' to 'buddy' in the second one, but 'buddy' in this context so blatantly obviously means scumbuddy that no reasonable person would interpret it any other way. No one in a mafia game to my knowledge has ever said 'X is Y's buddy' and meant that they were literally friends.

Perhaps you mean something else. Why do you think David Parker might have lied? Please be as specific as you can.

Uh, I answered the question? You know, the bit you twisted?

Fonz said "(therefore elaborating on the fact that I am all too familiar with Furc's meta)"
You have played HOW MANY games with me?
If ANYONE here OTHER THAN ME is up to snuff on my meta, it would be ThAd.

Two. And read others. But what's your point? I'm well aware of your rep as one of the worst VIs in the history of the site.

Hence me counting Furcolow's staggering amount of anti-town statements against him as points toward scumminess.

To me, Furc's actually somewhat less antitown than normal here.
Gonnano's looking really scummy. He's gone for a lone wagon on a VI player who's actually playing better than normal, but isn't actually attacking any of the top three wagons.
Thanks ThAd for supplying the Furc as scum meta.

cut,
but,
wut?
sup?

Quoting out of context, another common misrepresentation tactic. This is from a catchup post, relating to the early part of day one. You appeared to be making scumhunting effort, staying relevant, etc. As time went on, you became more antitown, but more to the point, YOU LIED ABOUT YOUR ROLE. Of course I'm going to change my view on a player who does the single action which most closely corresponds to being scum, and not only that but does it in a way that screams 'self-preservation.'

[The Fonz]

I'm trying to work out what your actual problem is here. Do you not think you should always lynch in non-lylo situations where two players claim contradicting role information, especially when neither is a 'power role' per se? Is it not a no-brainer? And do you really think it matters whether I personally join this wagon or not? I have made quite clear that I have a town read on Feysal. Nonetheless, if this is not a case of player or mod error, we have two players claiming contradicting information.

My problem is the way you stated it was "well, I'll do this, but I don't really wanna..." You set yourself up to distance as far from it as possible. I find people who undermine their own positions scummy.

No, the way I stated it was that the town has essentially no choice, which is correct. If we have what we appear to have, it's effectively the same as a claimed cop investigation, or a counterclaim of a role where it is known there's only one. What I do want to do is absolutely ensure that that

is

what we're dealing with, before we commit to a lynch.

What I don't want to see is a boatload of 'Well why would scum sacrifice themselves like that?' WIFOM with regard to smargaret tomorrow if Feysal flips town. The current theory I'm running over is actually that Smarg is scum, and her PM doesn't contradict Feysal's, but she's convinced he's rival scum regardless and wants to ensure he goes down.

A question: would you be attacking me in the same way if I'd described it as a 'No-brainer' rather than 'having no choice?'

[The Fonz]

Doesn't necessarily work like that. Scum also want to get rid of power roles, etc. Also, you might be getting outvoted in your QT.

However, I will say that the fact that you don't back off from the notion that what you claim about your pm has to make him scum with no wriggle room for if he flips town speaks in your favor.

@LMP: Fair enough, though it just contributes to my growing sense of frustration that I feel like everything I say is being attacked based on semantics, rather than intent. "This is the only choice" and "This is by far and away the best choice" are to my mind identical, and I again don't like the attack on the basis of something I might, possibly, do in the future, when in fact I have never had any intention of doing as such: My explanation then will be, as it is now, that when someone claims someone is 100% scum based on role information, lynching them is always the only reasonable course of action for a town to take, save for perhaps the scenario where it's a PR counterclaim and it's possible to work out which is which quickly.

[The Fonz]

I don't claim I meant it in the second way. I'm saying the two things are basically synonymous. No choice and only one reasonable option are the same thing. You're suggesting I'm leaving the door open to saying the kind of thing I would never ever say.

[The Fonz]

Actually, since it now seems to me YOU might be leaving the door open for something scummy here:

Tell me this, if smargaret continues to claim Feysal is definitely scum, Feysal doesn't change his story, we lynch Feysal and he flips town: would you definitely lynch smarg or not in that situation?

[The Fonz]

Lowell looks even more town to me now. He showed the courage of his convictions. In keeping with what was said yesterday, I really don't hold that mislynch against anyone on the wagon (especially since two scum on the wagon died overnight). I'd have been on it had I got online, I think. The way Smargaret described the situation, it was a no-brainer to vote Feysal: you can't just ignore someone claiming to have role-related information on someone that makes them 100% scum, so yes, I stand by the assertion that town had no real option but a Feysal lynch.

Now please, can we not get into the WIFOM of 'Why would Smargaret claim that if it weren't true, since 1-1s aren't good for scum?' My guess is precisely that she was relying on that kind of wifom, or like I said before, she was American scum who was convinced Feysal was Soviet and thought that removing her scum neighbor would make her look good/help get that nightkill out of the way quicker. The only alternatives are a massive failure of reading comprehension on Smarg's part (not likely, especially after I asked her to check carefully) or severe bastard modding (nigh-on impossible).

Vote: Smargaret

[The Fonz]

Any particular reason you're not voting right now?

[The Fonz]

You say you've got two scum reads, who the hell posts 'Let's get lynching X or Y' and then 'isn't ready' to vote for either one? Town should be using their vote pretty much always, especially since it's early on and you're not at any real risk of causing a quicklynch or anything.

[The Fonz]

It's not foolish at all. If you can remember that you find someone scummy, you can vote for them. You look like you're afraid of being accused of voting without reasons.

[The Fonz]

Also, why pull this whole 'OMG I can't possibly vote yet' thing and yet encourage other people to, by saying 'Let's get lynching Smarg or Sath?' Surely if you're so uptight about voting either one yourself, you shouldn't be effectively asking other people to vote for them?

[The Fonz]

There is probably no more than one Soviet scum left; my suspicion is EGL for reasons stated yesterday. I need to reread for connections with SB.

Fonz:
1. The other mafia is US mafia. West German is neither Soviet nor US.

Hungarian and Vietnamese are neither Soviet nor US, and you ought to have been aware of this.

2. I had no choice in voting him either; what he said in the QT was suspicious enough to warrant outing him and then his own refusal to post confirmed it.

What he said in the QT was sketchy, no doubt. But that's not why he was lynched. He was lynched because you said explicitly that your role PM told you that his nationality was not what he claimed it to be. I could understand YOU voting him on the basis of 'Let's trust each other' and 'Honecker being Soviet is historically inaccurate.' (Though note, you claimed to have a town read on your partner in the post where you first claimed neighbour, and yet most of the stuff you later said was suspicious in the QT came before that). It's quite another thing to claim that he was 100% scum on the basis of role information.

3. Why are you disregarding bastard modding after Che and McCarthy flipped town?

Improbable roles are not bastard modding. Mods have to do something to enable scum to claim without instantly outing themselves. Directly telling a player his rolename is X, and telling his neighbour that the first player's rolename is Y, are. The difference between the two is quite enormous.

That's why I asked you, directly, if your role PM said something along the lines of "You can talk via this quicktopic to Feysal, who is an

East German Neighbor

" or "Your counterpart on the East German side of the wall is Feysal aka Erich Honecker, and you may communicate with him via QT," which allowed for some ambiguity. You made very clear there was nothing ambiguous there. Why should there be now?

Clearly, you

do

hold the mislynch against someone.

Yes, but if you can't see the distinction I was drawing there between you, who lied, and those who took reasonable and pro-town actions on the basis of claimed role information that turned out to be false, then heaven help us. Given the information you claimed to have, anyone would have supported that lynch. The problem was that you, clearly, cannot have had what you said you had.

[The Fonz]

Smargaret, there's a difference here. You're now saying 'My role PM did not call Feysal a Soviet Neighbor.' What you said yesterday was 'My role PM says the Feysal is NOT a soviet neighbor.'

my role pm lists his nationality as something other than Soviet

When I asked specifically if it was possible that there was any room for interpretation. I asked specifically if your pm contained Feysal's actual rolename, or something vaguer that left open the possibility of him being truthful.

Fonz, I was looking at my role pm when I wrote that post

IE, given your claimed role PM, there was no way that Feysal could be town. Feysal was town. Therefore, you must die. You're doing exactly what I thought you'd do today given the flip, ie yesterday making out that he was 100% scum because of what your role PM said and today making out that it was ambiguous and didn't necessarily make him auto-scum, but you thought him scum for other reasons.

[The Fonz]

Generally, I find two word pm quotes of rolenames etc are normally ok.

But more to the point, if I'm given the choice between believing 'This player is scum' or 'the mod made a mistake' I'm going to go with the former every time, because I think I've only ever seen one example of the latter, against several scum using it as an excuse (plus one occasion when the player had just horribly misread her role pm).

You can yell at the mod later if necessary.

[The Fonz]

*Shrug* I don't believe you.

And if by some weird combination of circumstances you happen to be town, you're much better off using any time you have to devote to this game for scumhunting, because I don't think I'm ever going to believe you unless you're somehow confirmed by something else.

[The Fonz]

Hold your horses, Fonz, a lot of people haven't even checked in yet this cycle.

So? Why shouldn't I be voting, or saying who needs to die? It's not like it's kingmaker or anything. Me stating that Smargaret needs to go isn't going to make her die instantly.

checking in. offhand fonz' "lowell looks so town" looks like he's buttering me up. not a fan.

One of these days people will let you give scum and town reads without making asinine insinuations. You look town. Sue me.

[The Fonz]

Actually Fonz, with Feysal's flip I'm

more inclined

[b/]

to believe that smarg is town. I don't see how the scum teams would be balanced with one having a neighbor role and the other team not. To me it just looks like you're trying to get a flash wagon started on smarg before anyone else has time to weigh in on the issue.

More inclined? Seriously, are you actually on the same planet as me here? She claims to have role info that someone is 100% scum, he flips town and you think that makes her MORE likely to be town?

And flash wagon? WTF? I'm voting her because this may actually be the biggest no brainer in the history of mafia. Good God, how egregious an act does a player have to come out with in this game to get a wagon going? What the hell is wrong with coming in and getting straight to the point? I mean, later in this post you come in and make out that enigma not voting for or attacking his top suspect straight away is scummy. Here you're making me out to be scummy for voting the obvscum straight away. I don't get it... what do you think the protown thing to do when posting right at the start of the day is?

It's quite possible the scumgroups have different power roles. I mean, we've seen a scum jailkeeper, and generally there isn't more than one of those in a game. I'm sure the mod will have tried to ensure that the scumgroups have basically equal amounts of role power, but that doesn't mean they have to have exactly the same roles.

Suppose this means that there are 2 scum teams? Hrmmmm...

Seriously? Are you really trying to look shocked to discover this information? It was pretty obvious and even if it was not obvious, we have discussed it ad nauseum. I'm not buying this especially in light of your previous post where you WIFOM why you are still alive and not being wagonned.

I do agree with this. I don't like how he's acting like two scum groups is some massive revelation, and I don't like how he distanced from his predecessor.

The Fonz - you willing to help me lynch Enigma today?

No. Well, not unless it's absolutely impossible to get a wagon on Smarg or PeregrineV. Enigma's scummy, but there's no way I'm buying that we had three different players who lied about their role and all are town, when the vast majority of people who lie are scum (I'm pretty much despairing of any chance of getting Furc lynched anymore).

[The Fonz]

Beasts of the Sea

specifically

stated that they thought it unlikely a neighbor pair would have one scum in it, because then one scumteam would have a neighbor and the other one wouldn't. I'm trying to argue why it makes perfect sense for my #1 suspect to me scum, which isn't a red herring at all- it's not necessarily the case AT ALL that the scum would have the exact same power roles on both sides- after all, all mods try to ensure that scum have something they can claim safely. If the groups are symmetrical, then any scum PR who claimed their own role would be outed to the opposite scumgroup, and that's bad design.

In relation to the quote about Enigma, and the bottom quote, you realize that considering all the mud you just slung here, it looks like you are buddying them?

That doesn't make any sense. Buddying whom? The Beasts? Why? How is telling someone you're not going to support their preferred wagon buddying? Or buddying Enigma? Saying 'Enigma is scummy, but I don't want to wagon him today' is not close to buddying either, unless your definition of buddying is 'ever saying you don't want to lynch a specific player.' I'm really wondering if anyone else in this game understands what buddying is.

[The Fonz]

Posting the raw data indicates a desire to be seen doing the analysis, rather than just doing the analysis. as in 'HAI GUYZ LOOK AT ALL THIS WORK I'M PUTTING IN, I COULDN'T POSSIBLY BE SCUM!' I've seen Adel blind towns with charts and statistics enough times as scum to be very wary of it. That said, the real acid test is if he comes up with something original or interesting as a result of this.

[The Fonz]

True, but there was no actual need to dump all the raw data in the thread, except to show everyone that you had collated it.

[The Fonz]

I find it hard to see how that data dump of yours can actually be of any scumhunting utility whatsoever, but you know, whatever. Present your conclusions and then we'll talk.

[The Fonz]

Hey Enigma, remembered your reasons for your suspicions yet? Decided which of the two is more voteworthy?

[The Fonz]

The Fonz.
Well all I have to say is this guy posts way too many wall posts, and even after I commit myself to another read, walls are ghey and I skimmed most his posts. So I shall sit him in the null read of my players.
He also needs to put player names in his quotes so I know who he is referring to.
That is all on him.

Whenever I don't post player names, it's because I'm quoting a post containing multiple points, and don't feel the need to individually attribute every single one.

Also, LOLIRONY 'Walls suck' from a guy posting six consecutive posts, including walls. Sometimes it's necessary to go into detail to explain arguments which have depth.

Your bvoight point is bollocks. For one, there was a large discussion on D1 of what 'threats to peace' were, and that there probably was Soviet and American mafia. Then there were three kills night 1, and a vig flip. At the very least, there was going to be an American SK, and probably in a game of this size a full scumteam. To suggest this line of reasoning suggests insider knowledge is ridiculous. It was a war BETWEEN communists and capitalists. Only someone with ridiculous pro-American bias would think 'America good, Soviets bad' here.

6v3v1

-Vig direction-

I'd rather you talked about who's scum.

True. I haven't got time to properly make a case on my suspects. I'll try and do that this week when things have settled down.

I don't like the apparent free card Lowell is getting. He's not taking advantage of it, but rather draws our attention to the attempt. I like it.

I can't speak for anyone else, but I've given several reasons why I think he's town.

The Fonz is trying to run the town more and more with large postings and commenting and anything he can get his hands. I'm not sure he's always like that, but I'm not comfortable with it. Especially since Jmj and mothrax were quite the opposite but all got the same role.

One, you're sheeping Enigma here. Two, let me rephrase that without the spin you put on it: "Fonz is creating content, giving opinions and reads, and trying to convince other people of them."

I'll respond to BoTS separately.

[The Fonz]

One, you're sheeping Enigma here. Two, let me rephrase that without the spin you put on it: "Fonz is creating content, giving opinions and reads, and trying to convince other people of them."

I'll respond to BoTS separately.

That's your side of the coin.

It's also a much more plausible interpretation than 'Fonz might be playing in a manner he clearly believes to be town-benefiting because he's scum.' If you have advice on how I could make the same points more concisely, I'd love to hear them. As far as I can see, most of my long posts are caused by me addressing several points in some depth. It's not like I'm fluffing here.

As far as I'm concerned, the game would be much better off if everyone was putting the thought into it that I am.

[The Fonz]

Oh, before I forget, I support bvoight's call for a nationality claim.

[The Fonz]

More inclined? Seriously, are you actually on the same planet as me here? She claims to have role info that someone is 100% scum, he flips town and you think that makes her MORE likely to be town?

Yes. More inclined.

That's simply ridiculous, and exactly the kind of wifom bullshit I was worried about yesterday.

You wanted to exhaust all possibilities first, right? So what is the hurry now, and how did you eliminate the mod error possibilities or intentional bastardry? Given the fact that the moderator flaked on this game I am just not ready to get out the pitchforks on smargaret yet. The fact that you see the situation just the opposite of how I do, especially with regard to the conflicting statements you made yesterday, sends flags up in my mind.

Mod error is eliminated, since Feysal flipped soviet, it was obviously intentional. The same thing rules out player error on Feysal's part.

I went out of my way to give Smargaret the chance to check with the mod whether there was some mistake, but she made absolutely clear that there was no possible ambiguity with her role PM- her claimed role pm and a Soviet, town, Feysal could not possibly both exist. The point is that, when someone appears to be setting up a 1-1, you want to make them be absolutely explicit, and leave no wriggle room for 'Oh I misread my PM' or 'maybe it wasn't a 1-1 after all' type wifom. So the reason I'm not considering those possibilities is that I gave Smarg the chance to explore them, and she herself emphatically ruled them out.

As for the intentional bastardry angle, there was no bastardry warning on the game. The rest of the game seems pretty standard. And directly telling Smarg 'Feysal is an East German Neighbor' and telling Feysal 'You are a Soviet Neighbor' would be such gross modding malpractice that I would go to mith and ask that Sotty be suspended from modding games. I have an incredibly hard time seeing how that could get past any sentient reviewer.

If one explanation requires the mod to be deliberately fucking the town over, and the other merely to have a given player as scum, which do you think is more likely?

Why are you going straight for the conspiracy theories rather than the simple and obvious explanation, that Smargaret is scum?

I'm not suggesting that both the scum groups have the exact same roles; my point is that neighbor doesn't really have a balanced equivalent in terms of equal power. Do you agree or disagree?

The question is misleading. What is required is not that both scumteams have a perfect counterpart for each role, but that the power level of the two teams as a whole are roughly equal. One could have two strong PRs, one three weaker ones, etc. I have a hard time thinking of a single role that perfectly counterbalances a rolecop, either. Not to mention, the power of a neighbor is pretty hard to quantify.

[The Fonz]

I can't see how that's even possible.

[The Fonz]

If I do flip town, are you willing to say you're scum? Or will you just say it must have been mod error/bastardry?

Whatever you flip, I'm not scum. Besides, you were perfectly willing yesterday to set up an 'Either Feysal is scum or I am' type dichotomy. Now you're backing away from it.

[The Fonz]

Smarg, it really seems like you're trying to use scare tactics here. "OMG I'll flip town and everyone will call you scum!" Well, I can't help what other people may or may not do, but I'm never going to refrain from doing what I think is the right town move because it might look scummy if I'm wrong. All I can do is be honest and open about my reads and my reasons for them, and let the cards fall where they may.

I gave you the chance to check for mod error. You were insistent that it was not necessary. Bastard modding can basically be discounted, because it would be such an egregious example of the mod deliberately fucking over the town, like I said.

If by some miracle, you were to flip town, I would simply defend myself thus: according to the information available to me, Smargaret was overwhelmingly the best available lynch. At the end of the day, I just don't believe it's possible that you got a town role pm stating Feysal's rolename as one thing, and he got a town role pm stating his rolename to be something different. Like I said, you'd be better off if you actually were town to be scumhunting hard right now.

There's also the point that, if you weren't American scum, it would be pretty easy for the Americans to pile on you without even getting their hands particularly dirty because the case against you is SO compelling. That hasn't happened.

[The Fonz]

Fonz, you are tunneling, and now that I'm beginning to get a town read, I'm going to politely ask you to stop. You tunneled on me, and now you're tunneling on smargaret. I don't know if you're wrong about smargaret, but given probability, and how I know you were wrong about me, I believe you are wrong here as well.

When you think you've found scum, you don't let go.

How about PeregrineV's charts? Do you find them helpful? Do you believe it is a ploy as scum used to not really have to discuss anything? That's how I feel. He replied to smargaret's one-liner with a little scummy quip

I really don't think it's a ploy not to discuss things. I think if he's scum, it's much simpler than that- he just thought making a spreadsheet would look town. That said, you know, his predecessor lied about his role, and he never did come up with an adequate explanation for his gross misrepresentation of me yesterday.

[The Fonz]

Another rainbow votecount, huh?

Those Feysalling need to stop, because at the moment there's little way of knowing who's a viable wagon, and who's one person's tunnel.

[The Fonz]

Except that I am not doing the "same thing" at all, because my argument is based on publicly available information. Yours was based on unique role information you claimed to have, which turned out to be false.

Do you think it is impossible, given what was respectively claimed in the thread by you and Feysal, that a town player could think you scum here? REALLY?

[The Fonz]

In fact, smargaret, put yourself in the position of any other player in the game here: Can you tell me with a straight face that you wouldn't think 'smargaret is scum' is the most likely situation here?

@Mod: can you remove the hydra post?

[The Fonz]

Enigma, no-one asked for your name, just the nationality. The point being it's a lot harder to discern a role from a nationality than a name.

[The Fonz]

LBJ is an obvious 'warlike' name on the American side. He's the guy who escalated in Viet Nam.

But again. Che was town. Kruschev was town. McCarthy was town. It's a very dangerous game to play 'That sounds warlike.' After all, early on in the game, someone listed Kissinger as an example of someone they'd expect to be mafia in this game. Then ThAd claimed it, and everyone was like... well, it's more 'peaceful' than McCarthy. Honestly, with the flips we've had, which historical figure is town and which is scum is something of a crapshoot.

[The Fonz]

Gonna be away for most of the holiday period, so expect one post at most between now and monday.

[The Fonz]

Polish. Sorry for the delay.

I think there's only Beasts left?

[The Fonz]

OK, full catch up. I make no apologies that this might end up being long.

Thoughts on ThAd's VA
____________________________________________________
He's right, there's basically no way a wagon on town OR scum gets to eight votes without at least one scum vote, especially in a multigroup game.

ThAdmiral - 9 -

Nachomamma8

, EGL,

LynchMePls

,

LlamaFluff

,

GhostWriter

,

Amrun

,

Feysal

, bvoigt, smargaret

Once again EGL and bvoigt don't make this cut and dried, but common-sense and logic suggest that on a wagon of similar size to the one on amrun above there

has

to be scum on this.

Especially since Smarg and EGL were two of the scummier players in the game anyway.

Bunnylover

- 13 -

LlamaFluff

,

Amrun

,

RedCoyote

, bvoigt, smargaret, Lowell,

Nachomamma8

,

This is one of the wagons I have used before in analysis. My argument then, as it is now, is that there is basically no way this wagon got to 7 votes (i.e. before stephoscope got on it) with just town votes.

Note that the two non-smarg players here are two of my top town reads.

Amrun

- 11 -

VP Baltar

, bvoigt,

Nachomamma8

, smargaret, Furcolow,

Debonair Danny DiPietro

,

LynchMePls

, Beasts of the Sea,

Stephoscope

, DavidParker, EGL

I'm still angry about this wagon. The unknowns make it useless for analysis, but it is still worth mentioning that smarg was indeed on it - so on both town lynches so far.

Don't agree that it's useless. If you look at it, there are two known Soviet scum on it. This would suggest to me that any living player on it is more likely to be American than Soviet if scum, and the Soviet mafioso is somewhat more likely to be found off-wagon.

So, armed with this, it makes one wonder: were there any really major wagons Smarg wasn't on? My research yields precisely one: DavidParker. She maintained her one-woman wagon on Stephoscope throughout the lifetime of the DavidParker wagon, then jumped on Amrun after it had lost most of its momentum. This is a strong associative tell- I've found in the past, to my cost, that just jumping every single big wagon isn't indicative of scum. It's indicative of newbie or VI town who are really easily swayed. However, that on this one specific occasion and no other, she passed up a big wagon, is a scumbuddy hint.

The only fly in the ointment here is that DP claimed early on to be Soviet. Would American scum have the guts to do that? Especially since this doesn't look like the kind of game that would have safeclaims (flipped scum with names that are not obviously scummy, flipped town with names that are).
______________________________________________________________________

PEREGRINEV, AND BoTS

PV's argument vs BOTS is hella bad. 'Too townie' is a well known fallacy, it's even got a wiki page FFS. It's not enough to indicate that someone hasn't received a lot of votes to say they are an under the radar scumbag. The question is, is Beasts deliberately trying to avoid attention? And that seems to be an emphatic no. He's taking strong stands (disagreeing with everything I say, however reasonable) and doing so in a way that draws attention to him and isn't particularly productive for scum (since he isn't actually convincing anyone) and has caused multiple people to tell him his 'case' is illogical and reachy. That's not a player who's 'not taking risks.'

Can I ask something- does anyone else here actually think Beasts' defence of Smarg is good, and on the right track? If so, I'll post some more rebuttals, but I don't feel like I'm arguing with scum here, nor do I feel that either of us is going to convince the other. Unless someone else is being convinced to not vote Smarg by him, then I don't think it's worth the effort to continue the argument at this point.
_______________________________________________________________________

Smarg

Her trying to create a parallel between me getting a scum READ on her, because of her in-thread actions, and her claiming to have specific, individual role information that confirmed Feysal as scum when he wasn't, is ridiculous and scummy.

________________________________________________________________________
Claiming

I propose that, should the surviving vig die or be forced to claim, the town should massclaim immediately, with the vig claimant starting the popcorn if he's still alive. Thoughts?

[The Fonz]

All of the above kinda assumes we're facing 3-1, btw, which I think is far the more likely scenario in a game this size.

[The Fonz]

The other names that kept popping up were EGL, bvoigt and davidparker. In particular The 2nd and 4th wagons that I highlighted above put EGL in an especially bad light given that he is the only unknown on them up to 4 and 7 (!) votes.

Next lynch must come from one of these three imo. With a huge priority on Smarg or EGL.

Because there can't be wagons that are purely town? Surely that logic is faultless?

Lol, I just realized that EGL is no longer in this game, and has been replaced by Enigma. With that in mind this comes across as super defensive.

vote: enigma

@ fonz: there are already 2 people on enigma, and I believe more could be convinced. Enigma today, smarg tomorrow?

I'd rather lynch Smarg, then Peregrine, then Enigma, in that order. I can certainly live with an Enigma lynch, but it wouldn't be my preference. There's also another point I need to raise, once Beasts claims nationality.

[The Fonz]

And again, everyone currently feysalling needs to vote so we know where we stand.

[The Fonz]

I guess I should have put a 'please don't comment on nationality claims until everyone has claimed' disclaimer out there.

[The Fonz]

No. That's craplogic. That some scum were able to avoid getting votes doesn't mean that all the people who didn't get a lot of votes were scum. It's like saying 'We lynched two lurking town, so the rest of the lurkers must be town also.' Only one person voted for LMP all game, no-one ever voted for Nachomamma. Hardly anyone's voted for Lowell, either.

[The Fonz]

I think we can agree to disagree. That's why we each have a vote, to use as we need to.

Except that a big part of the town is persuading other people. You can't achieve a lynch with one person's vote alone. The case on Smarg is obvious enough. That she deliberately and knowingly set up a 1-1 with a town player should be enough to auto-lynch her, but somehow it seems that this town is actually allergic to lynching incredibly scummy people. The fact that I don't think I've ever seen a wagon get to 8 players without any scum on it. The fact that she's using 'When I flip town, they will come for you' type appeals to fear to try to scare me off of her.

While we're at it, we never did get a proper explanation of 'misrepgate.'

[The Fonz]

Unvote, Vote PeregrineV

Bvoight's switch leaves me as a one-fer. I'd still somewhat prefer a Peregrine wagon to an Enigma one. Nationality claim analysis coming.

[The Fonz]

OK, this is a fucking wall. Live with it- it's a detailed analysis with several steps.

Claims

LIVING

2 American
4 Soviet
4 Others

(1 Polish
1 Albanian
1 French
1 West German)

DEAD

5 American
4 Soviet
5 Others


(Counting 'Vietnamese Soviet' and 'Hungarian Soviet' as the nationality, rather than the scumgroup name).

TOTAL

7 American
8 Soviet
9 Others

Here are my best guesses as to what we're facing.

There are a few factors at play here:

1) I would expect the setup to be 8-8-8 or 7-7-10 rather than 7-8-9.
2) I would expect the US to have some roles parallel to Gonnano's and Baltar's, namely American scum with non-American nationalities.
3) I would expect these players to feel safe to claim their nationalities honestly, meaning at least one, probably two scum in the Group <(Me) - Smarg - Sath - BoTS> . Though Sathoris looks scummy, I can't think of any Albanians that would make sense as American scum. Of course, it goes without saying who I think the best bet in this group is.

4) There are four dead American, and three dead Soviet town players.
5) From this, working on the assumption that there are equal numbers of Americans and Soviets, which I think is reasonable, there is one more living protown Soviet than there are living protown Americans.
6) Therefore, the following are possibilities:

i) All the living American Mafia claimed non-American nationalities. Enigma and ThAd are town, and the remainder are split between soviet and 'others.'

ii) Precisely one of the living American Mafia claimed American, the other two claimed other nationalities.

iii) Both the claimed Americans are American scum, and that leaves two between the other eight players.

Obviously if the living Soviet claimed American or something, that fucks everything up, but I don't find it plausible.


Further to the above:

I don't find iii) plausible, since I really would expect there to be American counterparts to the Vietnamese/Hungarian Soviet scum, and I don't think the Americans would be stupid enough to have these players fakeclaim US American names. Therefore, at least one of Enigma and ThAd is town.

i) is possible, but I think ii) is most likely. Especially since, when Enigma claimed, he seemed to be under the impression that there were NO other claimed yanks. In that situation, he is likely to have thought it safe to claim his actual name.

A soviet mafia would very likely have claimed Soviet here- it seems safe enough. My best guess in isolation would be Peregrine. Of course, he seems tied to Smarg as well, and of course they couldn't be Soviet together. I still find Furc scummier than Lowell or bvoight.

I don't think more than one American would have claimed Soviet. Likely the one under least suspicion, since the less scummy one would be going later in massclaim. It would be risky in terms of counterclaim, but it might protect from crosskills since presumably Soviet mafia would be less likely to suspect claimed Soviets of being American. I certainly don't think Furc's American- if he's scum, I'm pretty sure he's Soviet.

I think Smarg and Enigma are American, and the last Soviet is probably either Peregrine or Furc, with Peregrine also being a pretty good bet to be American due to Smarg ties. Lowell and Bvoight continue to be town reads. Really, the major effect of this nationality claim for me is to move Sathoris down a little, and Beasts up somewhat (since French, along with German, makes the most sense as a free world equivalant of Kadar and Ho).

I do think any American group which doesn't include Smarg would pretty much have to include both Enigma and Beasts. (Or to put it another way, I don't think Thad and Beasts are both scum, and I don't think that more than one US Scumbag will have claimed to have a Communist nationality).
__________________________________________________________________________
TL;DR:

ENIGMA AND THAD ARE NOT BOTH SCUM
TWO OF THREE OF BEASTS, SMARG, ENIGMA ARE AMERICAN
PEREGRINEV SCUMMIEST CLAIMED SOVIET

[The Fonz]

(Ensure sarcasm hat is off here).

Did Penegrinev claim soviet? I can't see it. Maybe I'm blind.

PeregrineV did not claim Soviet, but

DavidParker

did, so the slot had claimed.

I still don't like bvoigt and sathoris, adding to how they have also been voting each other as of late.

Could you explain your bvoigt suspicion? As far as I can see, he's had a mix of popular (Gonnano, Feysal, DavidParker) and independent (Stephoscope, Sathoris) suspicions, the scum he suspected (esp Gonnano) he was on early, he's not lurked, he's not made any truly horrible arguments, he's made some town reads. I can't see any single thing that says 'more likely to be done by scum' there. About the only thing is not having delivered any dead American scum, but then, no-one has done that.

Keep in mind, that American scum would be less gutsy to do a claim such as Albanian or Polish ... I wouldn't have thought of Albania .... kinda like the surprise Vietnam flip.

Yeah, like I say... Sathoris' claim helps him in my eyes. It doesn't come close to clearing him, since Albania was probably the most obscure country in the Ostbloc, so the one least likely to produce a counterclaim.

[The Fonz]

Also, Fonz are you thinking there is still one more Soviet scum left?

It would surprise me if it were not the case. 18-3-3 with the Soviet scum not having any kind of RBing or protective roles, given the existence of odd and even night vigs (harder to take out than a single full vig) doesn't seem balanced.

Full player/nationality claim list:

Americans:

ThAdmiral
Enigma

Other Free World:

Beasts of the Sea - French
Smargaret - West German

Soviets:

Bvoigt
Lowell
Furcolow
PeregrineV

Other Communist:

Myself - Polish
Sathoris - Albanian

[The Fonz]

Also, Fonz are you thinking there is still one more Soviet scum left?

It would surprise me if it were not the case. 18-3-3 with the Soviet scum not having any kind of RBing or protective roles, given the existence of odd and even night vigs (harder to take out than a single full vig) doesn't seem balanced.

If you wouldn't mind, your town/scum reads since you believe there to be 3 American scum and 1 Soviet scum left.

Well, I explained in quite a bit of detail precisely where I think the mafia are hiding. But since you asked, for the sake of clarity:

1 Beasts of the Sea - neutral to leaning scum - much more likely to be American if scum, mostly based on nationality claim rather than actual play
4 Enigma - Probably scum, definitely American if scum
6 PeregrineV - Scummy and could belong to either faction
8 ThAdmiral - Townish - can't entirely rule out American scum, but would require multiple scummier people to be town, not Soviet Scum
10 Furcolow - Possibly soviet scum, don't see as American, believe he has claimed his actual rolename either way
11 Lowell - town
13 smargaret - Scum, American
18 bvoigt - town
22 The Fonz - Confirmed town to myself
24 Sathoris - neutral to leaning town

[The Fonz]

For ThAd and Enigma to both be scum, you're requiring the following:

1)An American mafioso with a different nationality to have claimed American

or

2) The Americans to have only one 'foreign' team member as opposed to two (with one Soviet mafioso still outstanding, but I'd expect that role to be actually Soviet- seems a bit weird to have a Soviet mafia with only one Soviet in it) for the Soviets.

I don't think that's particularly likely. I'm not even going to think about lynching ThAdmiral unless and until Enigma comes up town.

[The Fonz]

For ThAd and Enigma to both be scum, you're requiring the following:

1)An American mafioso with a different nationality to have claimed American

or

2) The Americans to have only one 'foreign' team member as opposed to two (with one Soviet mafioso still outstanding, but I'd expect that role to be actually Soviet- seems a bit weird to have a Soviet mafia with only one Soviet in it) for the Soviets.

I don't think that's particularly likely. I'm not even going to think about lynching ThAdmiral unless and until Enigma comes up town.

Actually, #1 is your scenario. 4 man scum teams are either 3 main + satellite or 2 main +2 satellite.

WHAT? How is number one my scenario? You're just not making sense here. How can you claim they are 'either 3 main + satellite or 2 main + 2 satellite' when

we've already seen two Soviet satellite flips?

If it is 2+2, then you or Sathoris are the remaining soviet scum (becuase soviets already have 2 dead soviets+1 vietnam).

No. We've seen soviet mafia, hungarian soviet mafia, and vietnamese soviet mafia. Two satellite and one soviet.

If it it 3+1, then ThAd and Enigma must both hang (for being American, then we hang Beasts or smarg, as the +1)

Except that if it's 3 +1, it's perfectly possible that one of the American mafiosi claimed to be something else, and one of the claimed Americans is truthful. That said, I think it's more likely 2+2.

As a matter of fact, I do think an American is hiding under a Soviet nationality. I could be wrong, but I'm going to look at the US+satellite and Soviet+satellite breakdown next.

That's actually a brilliant point. There are 14 claimed Communist world roles including the dead, both town and scum flips. There are only ten claimed Free world.

I am also on the 18-3-3 belief. It makes more sense.

It really doesn't.

[The Fonz]

Actually, Peregrine's brilliant point about US vs Satellites has massive implications, I think. Including that, if the numbers are balanced, we know exactly where the Americans are hiding. It would mean that one of me and Sathoris would have to be scum (hint: him) and that there was precisely one American hiding in the claimed Soviets.

The one thing that gives me pause about this is, although my role is

from

an Eastern bloc country, he's very much not pro-Soviet. And Yugoslavia, although Communist, wasn't behind the Iron Curtain. Hmmm.

[The Fonz]

There is only 2 soviet + 1 satellite flip. If you can re-respond to the post that caused this reponse after reviewing the OP, I would appreciate it.

No. YOU re-view the OP, because it is clear there are two satellite and one soviet flip.

Just want to point out that it is somewhat contradictory to have Sathoris be the scum and not be. And in your scenario (assuming 3+1), one of you is.

Yes, they contradict each other. You know why? BECAUSE I CHANGED MY MIND BECAUSE YOU BROUGHT UP A POINT I HADN'T THOUGHT OF. When new evidence arises, I reconsider my positions. What do you do?

[The Fonz]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/J%C3%A1nos_K%C3%A1d%C3%A1r

He WAS NOT soviet.

[The Fonz]

9 (Artem) VP Baltar was assassinated night two. He was Ho Chi Minh - Vietnamese Soviet Mafia Goon
17 gonnano was lynched on day three. He was Janos Kadar - Soviet Mafia Goon
19 Stephoscope was removed from the bunker on night four. He was Andrei Gromyko - Soviet Mafia Rolecop

Andrei Gromyko, who was Russian. Ho Chi Minh, who was Vietnamese. Janos Kadar, who as anyone who's studied the period could tell you, was the HUNGARIAN communist dictator.

[The Fonz]

What the scum's actual rolenames are are irrelevant. If you were named, say, Margaret Thatcher, American Mafia Goon, are you going to claim to be American or British? Janos Kadar was from a satellite state, which is what matters. Both claimed Americans have claimed actual US citizens.

[The Fonz]

And my point is, if you have a role like that, the scumbag is more likely to claim the historically-accurate name rather than the actual rolename, especially after the Feysal debacle. Therefore 'these two claimed American, so they must be the analogues of Kadar and Gromyko' doesn't necessarily work, since the two claimed Americans are actual, historical Americans, and Kadar wasn't actually Soviet.

[The Fonz]

OK. So you are saying Beasts and smargaret could also count as Americans, and not just satellite.

So, three of Beasts, ThAd, Enigma, and smargaret need to be lynched?

Not necessarily, because scum can lie about their rolenames. I do want to lynch at least two of that group. As you said yourself, American scum might be claiming to be Soviet. I don't think given the lack of American claims that soviet mafia has claimed to be American.

@ThAd: Do you think the setup is likely to be symmetrical with regard to capitalist and communist roles, or not?

[The Fonz]

Though thinking about it, if it IS symmetrical, then there's only one scum in that group, so I'd want to leave them for last.

[The Fonz]

But wouldn't that make them overpowered relative to the three flipped soviets?

[The Fonz]

That was at ThAd, lousy ninja.

[The Fonz]

Peregrine, is there any particular reason you're so set on there being no Soviets left? I don't think i've seen you forward a good argument, balance-wise.

[The Fonz]

@The Fonz- A few reasons.
1. One of top being that the scum teams, for power balance, have to be equal. That means if 4 Soviet, then 4 American scum. I don't think there are 4 American scum (3 left). The nationality claim kind of cinched it for me.

That's not an argument. Explain what it is that suggests there are not three American mafia. Do you think it's beyond the scum to lie about their roles or something?

2. 6 mafia in the game is 25% mafia. 8 mafia is 33% mafia. That is the acceptable range, so I refer back to my first reason.

That's not a reason. I will point out that multiscum games are usually closer to 33% than 25%, and single group games closer to 25%.

3. The flavor symmetry- 2 primary + 1 secondary on each scum team.

All that symmetry requires is two American goons, and the final role being roughly equivalent to whatever the soviets have.

4. Vote patterns. 4 man scum teams could have 3 on the primary wagon and one off-wagon, and almost make up the majority. However, if you look over the patterns, it never happened, on either side.
IE, I have 3 votes now, it takes six to lynch. Assuming no american mafia on me, they could all now pile on and end the day (obviously each would give a "reason", but the net result is that with 4 remaining scum and 6 to lynch, 2 misvotes would screw town over. And it would only get worse each day.)

But we're not at lylo. Scum tend not to go out of the way to be ridiculously blatant.

[The Fonz]

You see, PV, it kind of looks like you're trying your hardest to convince people that the setup is the possibility more likely to 'clear' Smargaret.

[The Fonz]

@bvoigt- based on nationality claims Enigma and ThAd are both claiming US. Wouldn't that mean they are both US scum, at least? and the off-country you have smargaret?

SCUM. LIE. ABOUT. THEIR. ROLES. ALL. THE. FUCKING. TIME. If there were two US mafia remaining with actual American rolenames then the absolute last thing in the world I'd expect them to do is both claim American.

There is fairly obviously an American Mafioso hidden in the claimed Soviets. You can say what you want about outguessing the mod, but it is simply not fair to have two more soviet town than American town for the Soviet scum to hide in.

Also, you know who hasn't really produced any original scumhunting content today, and has completely not been called on it? Sathoris. I know he's had v/la issues, but he's also made filler posts like these:

Che flipping town cuban roleblocker raised a few eyebrows.

Enigma just claimed Lyndon Johnson

vote: Enigma

LBJ isn't out of place here, unless there's something I'm missing?

One, you're sheeping Enigma here. Two, let me rephrase that without the spin you put on it: "Fonz is creating content, giving opinions and reads, and trying to convince other people of them."

I'll respond to BoTS separately.

That's your side of the coin.

@smargaret- I'm sorry you feel that way. I will try to be more like you.

You promised analyis aswell. But your latest post was just the same, plus you added a (useless) question.

Don't assume anything based on nationalities and names. Scott turned out to be J Edgar Hoover. Someone you would classify as 'the protector of peace and common sense'.

The only real argument he's made all day is 'Peregrine is scummy for thinking it might be 8-2.' And that's a bad one. He's said a lot of things that kind of look semi-relevant, but don't actually help figure anything out or shed new light on the game.

You know what? Fuck it. I'm not going to continue to support a wagon pushed by smargaret and Sathoris, along with Beasts, who despite saying Enigma is scum and I am his partner with unspecified 'ties' is quite happy to push the counterwagon.

Unvote, vote: Enigma

[The Fonz]

Also, by the way, beasts: policy lynching IS scumhunting. It's probably its purest form. Saying 'X action almost always comes from scum, so lynch for it.'

[The Fonz]

ThAd, do you agree with this statement?

There is fairly obviously an American Mafioso hidden in the claimed Soviets. You can say what you want about outguessing the mod, but it is simply not fair to have two more soviet town than American town for the Soviet scum to hide in.

[The Fonz]

ThAd, do you agree with this statement?

There is fairly obviously an American Mafioso hidden in the claimed Soviets. You can say what you want about outguessing the mod, but it is simply not fair to have two more soviet town than American town for the Soviet scum to hide in.

This is probably right. Unless there are 4 soviet and 3 us.

In which case, since bvoigt is my strongest town read, I really feel like you've invited at least one and probably two scum into your voting bloc. There's at most two scum in the claimed capitalists (I think Smarg, Enigma or Beasts, in that order- interestingly, though Smarg is by far the individually scummiest, the other two are more connected).

That means, to my mind, unless Sathoris is scum (and that, to be fair, isn't unlikely) half the scum are in your little bloc.

Furc, could you explain 'interactions regarding Janos Kadar?' Do you mean his behaviour around the time Gonnano claimed, or his trying to play up the soviet mafia flip over the actual rolename to try to paint the claimed Americans as scummy?

[The Fonz]

Sathoris. You are still voting PV, correct me if I'm wrong. Does this mean you think he's a superior lynch to Furc or Enigma?

[The Fonz]

I believe that's L-1, and I would therefore like to ask for a fullclaim from Enigma.

[The Fonz]

Uh, Enigma, you did not 'put in effort where no one else was prepared to.' I, and Peregrine, for starters, have put in more effort today than you have. In many ways, it was your predecessor's lack of effort that makes you look scummy to begin with.

[The Fonz]

Yes, posting once per prod period over a prolonged period of time is a scumtell. Hence me flagging up Sathoris as someone who was lurking and not getting called on it. My town read on Lowell has also slightly weakened as a result of his having started to lurk again recently. And I'd prefer a smarg lynch to yours, because she set up that 1-1, and has been lurking and not scumhunting today. I'd be equally happy lynching Sath as you.

But the fact is, there were two viable wagons. And yours was pushed by people like ThAd and Bvoigt, who I think are town, while Beasts, Smarg, and Sath were all on Peregrine, and in particular, Beasts attacked me in a particularly scummy way that made me think he might well be scum with you. If he was town who thought I was scum with you, why didn't he call my bluff and vote you? Instead, he made sure he said that you were scummy, but took the one course of action (pushing Peregrine) most likely to ensure your survival today.

[The Fonz]

Lowell, if peregrine is American, who is most likely to be a partner?

I really, really, really, don't think that both claimed Americans are scum. That would mean there was no 'other country' American goon who thought it was safe to claim his own nationality, AND that the numbers of capitalist/communist townies are asymmetric. Either on its own, I could buy, but both?

[The Fonz]

Fonz what do you think about Thad.
The reasons which i just said, and Lowell conveniently rephrased to make it look like he is scum hunting as well. Nice try the Lowell.

Cannot be scum if you are. We can reasonably surmise from numbers that the American scumbag who has claimed Soviet is an actual American American. That means that if it's 2-2 (yank scum with American names/other nationalities) then both of you are town, and the remaining Americans (non-Soviet claimants) are in (Me), Smarg, Beasts, Sathoris. If it's 3-1, precisely one of you is scum. To be honest, ThAd is my lowest suspect out of the four claimed capitalists. I'd rank them Smarg, you, Beasts, ThAd, in order of scumminess.

His activity today hasn't been as good as previous days, but he is taking firm positions. He hasn't lied about his role. Etc.

@Lowell,
Thad was neutral for most the game for me, he only really caught my attention was his thing about the voting bloc yesterday, (this is with me at L-2, makes you think is it really necessary??) that caused me to go and review his play. And on reviewing it, I noted things I found scummy about it.

This kind of thing always seems to result in the player, scum or town, finding what he was looking for. Generally, if you go back and laser in on one particular slot, with the mindset of 'Let's see if I can find anything scummy here' you will, because you wouldn't do the iso unless, subconsciously, you wanted to find that player scummy.

I will not at this stage accept any other lynch but Enigma or Smarg.

Btw, for people WIFOMing about 'Why would a scum set up a 1-1?'

It's not a 1-1 if the town isn't willing to lynch the accuser if the accused comes up town. Given that town has already let two players who lied about their roles off the hook, and that, if scott hadn't died overnight, we'd have been at the stage where American scum need only one vote to secure majority, then it makes sense that Smarg would have thought she could get one townie to bite on 'Well scum wouldn't do that because it's suicidal' type wifom. Especially since THE AMERICANS (presumably) KILLED OVERNIGHT SOMEONE WHO HAD PROMISED TO VOTE SMARG TODAY.

[The Fonz]

The point is, enigma, I don't think I've ever seen someone go "I was getting scummy vibes off him/he was sliding under my radar, so I went back and looked over him in detail, but I realised there wasn't actually anything scummy about him and I was just being paranoid."

[The Fonz]

I actually would like to take a closer look at ThAd. The only reason he's remained clear in my mind is DP's "role related information" which was a lie, wasn't it? :-/ I need to actually reread him and make sure that townread is warranted. Is that kind of stunt something DP would pull for a scumbuddy?

I'm sorry, DP's lie was revealed days ago, and you're bringing this up now?

I'm also suspicious of Fonz. He's completely abandoned his "You must be scum because Feysal flipped town" and his "LAL => Lynch Furc" and those are starting to look like scum going for the easy mislynch dropped for lack of interest.

This is pretty clearly a direct lie. No-one who's actually read the game and posting in good faith could possibly argue that I have 'completely abandoned' my smarg-is-scum line of thought.

There's at most two scum in the claimed capitalists (

I think Smarg, Enigma or Beasts, in that order- interestingly, though

Smarg is by far the individually scummiest,

the other two are more connected).

Yes, posting once per prod period over a prolonged period of time is a scumtell. Hence me flagging up Sathoris as someone who was lurking and not getting called on it. My town read on Lowell has also slightly weakened as a result of his having started to lurk again recently. And

I'd prefer a smarg lynch to yours, because she set up that 1-1, and has been lurking and not scumhunting today.

I'd be equally happy lynching Sath as you.

I will not at this stage accept any other lynch but Enigma or Smarg.

Btw, for people WIFOMing about 'Why would a scum set up a 1-1?'

It's not a 1-1 if the town isn't willing to lynch the accuser if the accused comes up town. Given that town has already let two players who lied about their roles off the hook, and that, if scott hadn't died overnight, we'd have been at the stage where American scum need only one vote to secure majority, then it makes sense that Smarg would have thought she could get one townie to bite on 'Well scum wouldn't do that because it's suicidal' type wifom. Especially since THE AMERICANS (presumably) KILLED OVERNIGHT SOMEONE WHO HAD PROMISED TO VOTE SMARG TODAY.

I mean, does it even look possible that anyone could look at these posts, and honestly conclude 'Fonz has completely abandoned his belief that Smargaret is scum?' I don't think so. She's clearly being dishonest here. I changed my vote because I was on a one-man wagon. I had no chance of getting Smarg lynched without ThAd's help.

As for Furc, dropping a wagon when it is clearly unviable is the right town thing to do. It's perfectly possible to believe that someone is scummy and needs lynching, and yet also realise that it's not going to happen that day, and devote your efforts to working out which of the viable wagons is the best lynch.

And 'easy lynch' is such a scumbag argument. Seriously. The arguments on you and Furc are easy to make because you've both done things that town should never, ever do, but scum would love to do if they can get away with it. And guess what? You've both pretty much gotten away with it. You've taken actions massively beneficial to scum, and you've not been lynched for it.

unvote, vote: Smargaret

[The Fonz]

2155 says exactly what I was thinking about smarg of late. The "if I flip town, WILL YOU REPENT/BE SCUM/TERRIFYING QUASI-THREAT" posts are bad news.

Lowell, join us.

[The Fonz]

Furc, could you explain 'interactions regarding Janos Kadar?' Do you mean his behaviour around the time Gonnano claimed, or his trying to play up the soviet mafia flip over the actual rolename to try to paint the claimed Americans as scummy?

[The Fonz]

I'm not going to continue to support a wagon pushed by smargaret and Sathoris, along with Beasts, who despite saying Enigma is scum and I am his partner with unspecified 'ties' is quite happy to push the counterwagon.

You can quit with the melodramatics at any time, Fonz. I was on Enigma all day when it wasn't even a viable wagon. There were

no

viable wagons at the time (remember all the Feystalling, and the 'rainbow vote count' comments?). So, saying I'm pushing a counterwagon is not even close to true. In fact, you were the one that made PeregrineV the leading wagon when you joined before bailing.

Saying someone is your top suspect when the rest of the game are looking elsewhere, and then directly pushing the alternative wagon of two that are viable when other people are voting him, screams distancing to me. Saying you're not pushing a counterwagon just simply isn't true. If you're voting for someone who is the most likely player to get lynched in his stead, you're pushing a counterwagon.

I'm extremely confident that, if Enigma is scum, you are his partner. If Enigma is town, I think it's more likely to be Smargaret and Sathoris. The final American is in the Soviets either way, and the remaining Soviet is also very likely to be there. However, for all the scumminess of your recent behaviour, Smargaret is still the scummiest player in the game. Enigma is more likely to be American scum than Peregrine, I think but Smarg is more likely than either, so if Smarg has renewed viability, of course i'm going to go there.

I've made it abundantly clear that I am okay with either a Enigma or PeregrineV lynch today, but the question is really this: why wasn't anyone joining the Enigma-wagon earlier, when I was pushing it? It only began to garner votes once I switched.

Making it clear you're 'OK' with something and voting for it are different things.

@The Fonz- Beasts has to say that in order for his "3 american scum team + Peregrine" to make any sense. He knows your not scum.

Even if I

was

scum, how would I know that The Fonz is

not

scum? For all I could know, he might be on the rival scum team.

This, however, is a fair point.

Also, by the way, beasts: policy lynching IS scumhunting. It's probably its purest form. Saying 'X action almost always comes from scum, so lynch for it.'

But my whole point was you were neglected to do anything else for a long period of time. As I said here it seems you didn't even look at peripheral reads of people surrounding your policy lynches.

Peripheral reads? What do you mean? I was perfectly happy to comment on the other wagons and their relative merits, although I made clear Furcolow was my top read. I mean, in the post I voted Furc, I also said the following:

Other things: The way ThAd framed the him vs Amrun dilemma as 'My town sounding rolename' vs 'His scum sounding rolename' I don't like. Thinking maybe Kissinger is a safeclaim, or else a less obvious scum name (actually, not that un-obvious. His name, along with Nixon and LBJ, struck me as the most likely to be American scum if there was such a group). But since we don't actually know for sure there is an American scumgroup (it's not beyond the realms of possibility that there be, say, an American SK) and because his scumhunting on Day Two i felt was much better, he's not a priority.

Gonnano... meh. He certainly looked scummy early on, but a lot of the case against him seems to be 'too defensive.' And I FUCKING HATE the too defensive argument.

DP is scummy for all the obvious reasons. RedCoyote is someone I think might be good scum. The kind who has a good, town-sounding excuse for everything he does, but doesn't give me the sense he's really trying hard to find scum. A la Benmage in Simpsons mafia.

That is not tunneling on Furc to the exclusion of everything else. That is not using Furc as an excuse not to comment on other issues. And, fwiw, you know who are my best guess to be the last Soviet and the American hiding among the Soviet claims? Furc and Peregrine. Furc is most likely American with you/Enigma, Peregrine would make more sense as the partner in the Smarg/Sath setup.

The Fonz, I especially like how your confidence level on Enigma being scum ratchets up a notch the closer he got to being lynched and tried to make ties from him to me; especially considering you were so hesitant to consider voting him previously. Then, you jump ship as soon as votes start falling.

The ties from him to you were caused by your attempt to tie me to him, which is something that scum often attempt to do with partners under suspicion- it makes sure you've prepared the ground for the next mislynch if he does die- as well as the aforementioned fact that you were calling him scum whilst pushing the wagon most likely to beat out his and therefore cause his continued survival.

[The Fonz]

Assuming Smarg and Enigma will vote each other for self preservation, this will come down to Lowell and Peregrine. Both need to vote the same way to get a lynch.

[The Fonz]

Got the rest of tonight and all day tomorrow. Is there no better lynch than smargaret?

No. Smarg is optimal.

[The Fonz]

I've said what I have to say. I don't know who's lying about their nationality; honestly, it's clear someone is and it doesn't really matter who.

It doesn't matter who's lying? Jesus Christ.

Let the record show that you have done basically no scumhunting today.

[The Fonz]

Thoughts:

ThAd is as town as they come.

There remains exactly one American among the claimed Sovs, and the Soviet pretty much must be hiding there too, given the balance of numbers.

The remaining American in my eyes MUST be Enigma or Sathoris. The claim logic strongly suggests Sathoris, but Beasts of the Sea's attempts to tie me to Enigma, plus his pushing of PV at a point when it was the main alternative to Enigma whilst still saying he thought Enigma was scum is a REALLY strong associative tell. I want to lynch in this pair today. By the same token, I'm pretty much sure PV is not American, but could well be Soviet.

I think I'd be OK with full massclaim, simply because outing the vig today is less of a worry, and because we know whoever it is is unlikely based on sheer math to live through another two nights to get another kill off after tonight's anyway. Math also tells me that my read on either BV or Lowell was wrong: I'm more confident of BV as town.

[The Fonz]

Right, enough BSing around. Sath, start the popcorn.

Also, we need to make sure that no-one comments on a claim until all claims are in. Anyone who thinks otherwise, take a look at Harry Potter and Seinfeld mafias. Other players' opinions on claims before they are all in just allows scum to adjust their plans to their advantage.

[The Fonz]

Enigma already fullclaimed. Lyndon B Johnson, US Townie.

[The Fonz]

The one that really stands out is the day one ThAd votecount. Because BV thinks both are pretty much confirmed, but that would mean that a wagon on a town player had eight town on it without a single scumbag from either team. While that's possible, it's very unlikely.

[The Fonz]

Enigma, can you please explain what it is about Gonnano's post (and to a lesser extent, Lowell's) that are interesting to you? I'm getting increasingly pissed off at all the raw data being posted in the thread without any attempt at explaining why it's relevant.

[The Fonz]

No. Don't be an asshat. I want to know what YOUR actual argument is here.

[The Fonz]

I think it's ridiculous that this is being brought up now. The issue of the vig was obvious at the start of the day- I explained today why I am cool with everyone claiming, whereas yesterday I wanted to hold off to protect the vig. Anyone could have said 'I think the vig should claim vanilla' before we began. Anyone who's brought it up now has made pretty damn obvious they aren't the vig anyway.

All it would really do is give a scumbag the opportunity to claim vig if run up, and get one more mislynch in before the vig kills them overnight. (Actually, come to think of it given how tight the numbers are, a vig counterclaim would probably be better there. Unnhhh, but then scum could counterclaim the actual vig if run up, which gives the Americans the possibility of winning overnight if they think they know who the Soviet is. Yeah, let's just massclaim normally). There COULD me a mafia RB, but it would almost certainly be Soviet. And since we're assuming only one soviet, and it's unlikely they can block and shoot the same night, I'm not too worried.

@Sath: That may be just a nameclaim, but PV said 'Soviet Townie.' PV, continue the popcorn to myself, Lowell or Bvoigt please.

[The Fonz]

Wait a second. They could only CC to win if the CCer was bulletproof. Ah, still, if the second suspect after the vig was actually scum, then it's probably still worth it for him to CC.

I've also realised something important about someone's claim, which I will divulge after everyone has.

[The Fonz]

They won't claim vig in MC. But it still makes sense to claim vig to avoid the lynch that day, unless the alternative is also your scumbuddy. Every town player counts.

[The Fonz]

Peregrine: there's a distinct separation between Bvoigt and Lowell in my mind. BV is much the townier. And that question to Enigma is horrible. I'm not entirely sure what you're saying, but it sounds like an unfair burden of proof.

[The Fonz]

Me: The Fonz
Can't see how he's scum: ThAd
Think he's very unlikely to be scum, but if Lowell were somehow town, has to be: Bvoigt
Likely Scum, very likely American: Lowell
Likely Scum, very likely Soviet: PeregrineV
One of the following is scum, the other is very likely town: Enigma, Sathoris (there's an outside chance Enigma is American and Sathoris is actually Soviet, although that implies some funky setup/claim combo).

[The Fonz]

Uh, wtf?

[The Fonz]

Ah, gotcha. (Do I take it when you said 'You are American with ThAdmiral' you were not in fact calling them scum buddies?) There's an outside chance of the situation being that Enigma is US Scum AS WELL AS Sathoris is Soviet (scum). The much more likely scenario is that one or other is American scum, and the other is town. When I say 'American' and 'Soviet' I'm talking about the mafia groups.

[The Fonz]

Is there a reason no one is voting?

See my earlier point about no-one commenting on anyone's claim before all are in. We want, as far as possible, to force the scum to be as truthful as we can, or at least commit to their lies early: going 'OMG X is obvscum' distorts the process.

Rather than point out that you forgot to popcorn onward, and drag the whole tedious process out some more, I'm simply going to assume you pick me to go next, and then popcorn to bvoigt.

I'm Lech Walesa, Polish Townie. Flavor wise, I'm a courageous individual and a gifted speaker but have no special abilities. Now bvoigt, then we can get down to business.

[The Fonz]

Cosmonaut.

OK, the thing I noted that I was holding back. When PeregrineV linked DavidParker's claim, which itself linked the wikipedia page on Mikhail Bulgakov, I went and read that article: I had thought I had done so at the time, but I guess I only scanned it. Anyway, the important fact arising from that is that Bulgakov was not, in fact, alive at any point during the Cold War- he died in 1940, before the USSR even entered WWII.

I mean, after the Smarg fiasco I'm decidedly wary of basing anything on someone's claim, but that would be one hell of an improbable role.

[The Fonz]

Well that means my reads are now:

town: me, bvoigt, peregrine, fonz

scum: lowell, enigma, sathoris


@ fonz: but then you've got to ask - why would scum claim that?

Would I be correct in assuming you think Sathoris is Soviet then?

I was going to scream something along the lines of 'OH LORD WHEN WILL YOU SPARE US FROM THE WIFOM?' Then I remembered I made a similar argument for Feysal. Of course, there I had actual evidence, like the fact that gonnano knew to claim the historical nationality not the one in his PM, and Feysal had demonstrated that he was aware that Erich Honecker was East German.

Here's the thing. Scum do simply fuck up from time to time. See Stargate SG-1 Mafia, where theopor_COD claimed to be Ronan Dex. Only problem? Ronan Dex was an SG: Atlantis character, not an SG-1 character. He didn't deliberately claim something he knew to be unconvincing: he might well, however, have claimed something he thought was convincing, but wasn't.

I mean, it's far from impossible that Peregrine is, say, Stalin, or some other character that he concluded was too obviously warlike to be safe to claim honestly. So DavidParker went with the first peaceable sounding 20th century russian he could think of, and missed the fact that his claim wasn't alive in the Cold War. Or he had a few ideas, but because he didn't know what roles the Soviet townies might claim, went with something deliberately obscure. It's not unfeasible that he missed the detail about Bulgakov's lifespan, given that every other player in the game did the same, at the time.

Also, the logic of your votecount argument seems to suggest that Enigma is the most likely scum, but you're voting Sathoris. Can you briefly explain why you think Sathoris is the better lynch today?

@ Enigma: I don't know if it's scummy, or simply annoying, but your 'OMG you're scum because you happen to be using a method of analysis that suggests you or I are scum' to ThAd is baloney either way. Can you explain precisely what it is you think about the context of those votecounts that make them likely to have nine town voting for another town without any scum getting involved at all?

Besides if I get suspected of being mafia it's of being US scum. You're trying to find a scapegoat for the soviet scum spot. You've got better luck fixating on Engima, cause if you're not it, he is.

Enigma being Soviet strikes me as outright impossible. If a Soviet is claiming American, and there are still two more claimed soviets than Americans, that implies there are three American scum in the claimed Soviets. That can't be the case, even if we did allow for the possibility that bvoigt was scum, which I don't.

Why do you think it's more reasonable to suspect you of being American?

[The Fonz]

Here's the thing. Thinking about it, I don't want to lynch PeregrineV today. Why? Because I think he's the last Soviet. If we lynch the Soviet, then bvoigt chooses wrong between you and Enigma, game over, Americans win (2 Americans and two town left alive).

If, however, the 'wrong choice' between the two of you happens on the lynch, then bvoigt can shoot the other one. We HAVE to hit an American between today's lynch and bvoigt (well, and the Soviets' NK, but we don't really want to be relying on scum to keep us in the game) or it goes to either 2:2, Americans win, or 2:1:1, worst Americans can do is tie (town is done, and Soviet scum is left hoping the townie will go along with no-lynch and that the Americans shoot the townie rather than him).

My plan only fails if ThAd is American scum. But I have a REALLY hard time seeing that.

Oh, and sath, what I meant by claim logic is this: It's not set in stone, but I believe it more likely than not that the numbers of 'free world' and ostbloc townies are equal. Of course, in isolation, I'd think that Beasts of the Sea pushing PV over Enigma while saying Enigma is scum and trying to tie him to me makes it more likely than not that Enigma is his buddy. But one of those two things has to be untrue, because the same claim logic says that an American Mafioso claimed Soviet.

That said, I think I'd rather go with reads, votecount analysis and connections than outguessing the mod here.

Vote: Enigma

Sath, vote for Enigma. Enigma, vote for Sath.

[The Fonz]

OK, the thing I noted that I was holding back. When PeregrineV linked DavidParker's claim, which itself linked the wikipedia page on Mikhail Bulgakov, I went and read that article: I had thought I had done so at the time, but I guess I only scanned it. Anyway, the important fact arising from that is that Bulgakov was not, in fact, alive at any point during the Cold War- he died in 1940, before the USSR even entered WWII.

What are the odds on there being only one person in the game not alive in the Cold War and it's claim is held by a suspected scum.

Actually greater than the odds of Feysal being town and Smarg both being town and having Feysal's rolename listed differently in the two role pms. But still not very likely.

[The Fonz]

Btw, this allows me to coin a mafia neologism: LyKLo (like low) or in full 'Lynch or kill correctly or lose.' For situations where the town knows it has a vig, but otherwise would be in lylo.

[The Fonz]

Enigma: Vote. For. Sathoris.

[The Fonz]

Why?
And. Why. Is. Thad. Voting. Sathoris?

You honestly think I haven't explained? Also, BECAUSE YOU JUST CALLED HIM SCUM.

Incoming wall:

__________________________________________________________________
OK, so here's some context. Town wagons on day one basically never get to eight votes without any scum. Here's some examples from Simpsons Mafia, which like this was a 24p large theme with two scumgroups, only there were only six total mafia, so it'd be even less likely for a wagon to get to eight without any in this game than it was in that game. The highest a wagon got on all town votes was four. Here are all the wagons that got to five or more on day one, town in green, one scumgroup in red, the other in black:

Hiraki

(9):

Benmage,

ribwich,

,

DarlaBlueEyes,

,

Wraith,

Mist7676,

DemonHybrid,

Deer,

diddin,

Mariyta

The scum weren't the first two on the wagon, but both were on before it got to seven votes: it just looks that way because some town unvoted then returned.

DemonHybrid(5)

-

boberz,

sottyrulez,

Zang,

hiraki,

tvellalott

DarlaBlueEyes

(8)-

KageLord,

boberz,

tvellalott,

Deer,

sottyrulez

,

jasonT1981,

SensFan

,

Mist7676

KageLord(5)-

Fuzzy Beavers,

The Fonz,

sottyrulez,

LlamaFluff,

Tragedy

Again, Jason was actually on the wagon before Deer or Sotty, but unvoted at some point.

Mist7676

- 10 -

hiraki,

SensFan,

jasonT1981,

The Fonz,

sottyrulez,

DarlaBlueEyes,

LlamaFluff,

KageLord,

DemonHybrid,

Nero Cain

This wagon actually reached 13 and lynched, with a second scum (from a different group) providing the hammer. This is about as town-driven a wagon on town as you're ever going to see, but there was still scum on it before it got to eight.

______________________________________________________

[The Fonz]

Town

wagons on day one basically never get to eight votes without any scum.

1. This likely isn't a town wagon.

I have a strong town read on ThAd. Even so, you're implicitly endorsing the argument by using this counterargument. If ThAd is scum, then you aren't. But do you have a convincing argument for why ThAd is scum? I haven't heard one.

2. Are you going realize that unlikely isn't the same as never?

I've never seen it happen. It's not beyond the bounds of probability that it could. But mafia is a game of probabilities. It is very probable that that wagon had scum on it. Ergo, it is very probable that you are scum. I'm not claiming to be certain here, and it isn't my only reason for suspecting you, but it's a pretty damn good reason.

Put it this way. Two-thirds of the players on d1 were town, and 1/3 scum. 2/3 to the power eight is 0.404, or roughly one in twenty-four and a half. To the power nine, implying that all nine were town including the target, gives us just less than 1/37. The actual odds of a wagon of eight being all town are lower than that, because the probabilities aren't independent: if the first player on a wagon is town, then the odds of the second being town at random isn't 8/24, it's 8/23, the third 8/22 and so on, but that's a quick and dirty way of working it out. Your argument is that this particular wagon is that one in 25 or more that gets to eight without any scum on it. That's possible, but it's not the way I'd want to bet.

3. Have you reviewed the context where THIS particular wagon in question formed?

I don't need to. My argument is that, in general, wagons, and particularly town wagons, don't get to 8 without scum on them in games where scum are 1/3 of the total players. If you have an argument about why, given the context, this wagon was particularly likely to be all town, then FOR THE LOVE OF GOD, supply me with it. If you're not going to do that, then I'm going to conclude you're simply mudslinging here.

4. Will you quit life when you realize you are wrong? Please?

No, because I'm not wrong. The probability says what it says. Even if this turns out to be an outlier occurrence, it doesn't mean playing the probabilities was a bad idea given what I know right now. Especially when I think your proposed alternative, lynching ThAd, is much more likely to result in a town lynch than a scum lynch.

Also, your 'What about ME? What is scummy about MY play?" Well, that for starters. You replaced EGL. If he's scum, you're scum. You're asking us to discard valid scumhunting information because it makes you look bad. That, in itself, is scummy.

[The Fonz]

Ed: probability is 0.0404, not 0.404. That's a pretty glaring different.

[The Fonz]

If you have an argument about why, given the context, this wagon was particularly likely to be all town, then FOR THE LOVE OF GOD, supply me with it. If you're not going to do that, then I'm going to conclude you're simply mudslinging here.

Are you unable to read or are you just choosing to act illiterate?

I'll say it again briefly. EGL had that vote parked on you at the very beginning, well before the wagon started. You acted scummy, you got votes on you, a strong case was made on you, simple as that. This was not some wagon that scum would have to force, your scumminess pretty much forced it.

Your case is 'He was acting scummy. A strong case was made.' What is this strong case? Saying there's a case is not the same thing as there actually being a case. And you fucking call

me

illiterate, you douche? You're arguing like a Creationist. And even then, you're fucking well assuming the premise that scum won't vote for scummy looking town, which is just ridiculous.

Also, please don't try acting brains and try and use statistics when it is so laughably wrong. This is not an ordered sequence.
The actual answer is 0.0724 i.e. 7.24%. Which I wouldn't mind betting on actually.

Hang on. For all eight to be town, then the first has to be town, then the second, then the third... up to eight. If there's a scum at any point, we stop, yes? It's the equivalent probability of pulling eight red socks at random out of a drawer containing sixteen red and eight blue ones. Even if you were right, I'd bet on the 93%, not the seven.

How about an avatar bet? I ask a neutral observer to go on random.org, and generate eight random values between 1 and 24. If any of them are eight or lower, I win.

[The Fonz]

100 Random sets, consisting of numbers between 1 and 24, eight unique values in each. Of the 100 sets, ONE has no number eight or lower.

Set 1: 4, 5, 6, 10, 12, 13, 16, 20
Set 2: 2, 3, 7, 14, 17, 19, 21, 23
Set 3: 2, 3, 6, 11, 13, 15, 20, 24
Set 4: 2, 4, 8, 12, 18, 19, 21, 23
Set 5: 6, 9, 10, 12, 15, 19, 21, 22
Set 6: 1, 3, 6, 10, 15, 18, 19, 20
Set 7: 1, 4, 7, 8, 11, 12, 15, 22
Set 8: 3, 4, 11, 12, 15, 16, 22, 23
Set 9: 1, 3, 4, 7, 8, 20, 21, 24
Set 10: 6, 10, 13, 14, 19, 20, 21, 22
Set 11: 2, 4, 10, 13, 14, 15, 22, 24
Set 12: 1, 2, 6, 8, 9, 13, 15, 19
Set 13: 2, 3, 7, 9, 13, 14, 15, 20
Set 14: 2, 3, 4, 10, 16, 17, 23, 24
Set 15: 1, 2, 3, 14, 16, 17, 19, 20
Set 16: 2, 4, 5, 12, 14, 18, 20, 22
Set 17: 6, 9, 10, 11, 12, 15, 21, 23
Set 18: 2, 4, 6, 10, 19, 21, 23, 24
Set 19: 3, 7, 11, 12, 13, 15, 19, 22
Set 20: 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 11, 14, 21
Set 21: 1, 2, 4, 6, 14, 16, 20, 22
Set 22: 1, 2, 7, 9, 16, 17, 21, 24
Set 23: 2, 3, 4, 12, 17, 20, 22, 23
Set 24: 6, 9, 10, 12, 16, 21, 23, 24
Set 25: 2, 7, 8, 9, 11, 12, 14, 17
Set 26: 1, 2, 7, 10, 14, 17, 20, 21
Set 27: 4, 11, 13, 18, 20, 21, 22, 24
Set 28: 1, 4, 5, 7, 15, 16, 20, 21
Set 29: 5, 7, 11, 13, 16, 17, 21, 24
Set 30: 3, 9, 11, 17, 18, 19, 22, 24
Set 31: 1, 2, 7, 9, 11, 13, 16, 19
Set 32: 4, 6, 7, 8, 11, 13, 15, 20
Set 33: 1, 5, 10, 11, 12, 18, 20, 22
Set 34: 1, 4, 7, 14, 15, 17, 19, 21
Set 35: 2, 3, 6, 7, 8, 9, 13, 17
Set 36: 3, 7, 9, 10, 14, 16, 22, 23
Set 37: 1, 2, 3, 6, 7, 13, 19, 23
Set 38: 7, 10, 13, 14, 15, 16, 23, 24
Set 39: 4, 7, 10, 11, 12, 18, 22, 24
Set 40: 1, 3, 12, 13, 15, 20, 22, 23
Set 41: 2, 7, 9, 10, 12, 14, 20, 23
Set 42: 7, 8, 15, 16, 17, 20, 22, 23
Set 43: 2, 7, 8, 10, 16, 17, 18, 19
Set 44: 4, 11, 12, 14, 17, 19, 21, 24
Set 45: 4, 6, 8, 10, 13, 18, 19, 21
Set 46: 3, 5, 10, 11, 15, 17, 18, 20
Set 47: 1, 2, 4, 7, 8, 13, 14, 16
Set 48: 3, 5, 6, 8, 9, 13, 16, 24
Set 49: 2, 5, 9, 13, 15, 16, 20, 21
Set 50: 7, 8, 10, 11, 12, 13, 16, 18
Set 51: 6, 9, 15, 16, 18, 19, 21, 23
Set 52: 1, 6, 7, 8, 12, 13, 21, 24
Set 53: 1, 3, 6, 12, 14, 15, 22, 24
Set 54: 1, 3, 8, 10, 12, 13, 16, 19
Set 55: 10, 13, 16, 17, 18, 21, 22, 24
Set 56: 1, 2, 5, 13, 16, 19, 23, 24
Set 57: 6, 9, 11, 12, 13, 21, 22, 23
Set 58: 1, 2, 5, 8, 12, 17, 20, 23
Set 59: 6, 7, 10, 15, 20, 22, 23, 24
Set 60: 2, 9, 10, 11, 14, 15, 16, 20
Set 61: 1, 4, 16, 17, 18, 19, 23, 24
Set 62: 6, 7, 9, 12, 13, 17, 20, 21
Set 63: 2, 8, 11, 12, 19, 22, 23, 24
Set 64: 1, 2, 4, 7, 10, 13, 17, 18
Set 65: 1, 3, 4, 5, 6, 9, 17, 22
Set 66: 3, 8, 11, 13, 16, 17, 20, 24
Set 67: 2, 4, 6, 10, 11, 16, 19, 24
Set 68: 3, 6, 14, 16, 20, 21, 23, 24
Set 69: 2, 4, 6, 10, 17, 19, 23, 24
Set 70: 1, 3, 5, 7, 12, 15, 16, 24
Set 71: 2, 10, 12, 13, 15, 18, 22, 24
Set 72: 2, 3, 6, 7, 9, 11, 20, 24
Set 73: 1, 2, 4, 7, 10, 11, 16, 20
Set 74: 6, 7, 13, 14, 15, 18, 19, 20
Set 75: 5, 8, 11, 14, 15, 17, 19, 22
Set 76: 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 12, 23, 24
Set 77: 1, 2, 4, 9, 10, 14, 17, 18
Set 78: 3, 6, 8, 12, 13, 14, 16, 20
Set 79: 2, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 15
Set 80: 3, 5, 6, 8, 10, 11, 12, 14
Set 81: 2, 3, 8, 16, 19, 20, 22, 23
Set 82: 2, 4, 9, 11, 15, 16, 22, 24
Set 83: 3, 7, 9, 10, 17, 19, 20, 24
Set 84: 3, 10, 15, 16, 17, 19, 21, 24
Set 85: 7, 8, 9, 12, 18, 19, 20, 22
Set 86: 2, 4, 5, 6, 12, 13, 14, 22
Set 87: 1, 6, 7, 12, 13, 16, 19, 22
Set 88: 7, 8, 10, 13, 15, 16, 18, 24
Set 89: 4, 5, 6, 7, 9, 11, 13, 20
Set 90: 8, 10, 12, 13, 16, 19, 20, 22
Set 91: 1, 2, 7, 14, 17, 18, 21, 23
Set 92: 5, 8, 10, 12, 14, 16, 19, 23
Set 93: 1, 4, 9, 11, 12, 15, 16, 24
Set 94: 4, 5, 6, 7, 11, 12, 20, 24
Set 95: 1, 6, 8, 12, 15, 18, 22, 24
Set 96: 2, 8, 11, 12, 15, 19, 20, 22
Set 97: 3, 6, 8, 13, 15, 19, 22, 24
Set 98: 8, 9, 11, 13, 14, 16, 17, 19
Set 99: 2, 3, 8, 10, 18, 19, 22, 24
Set 100: 3, 9, 14, 15, 16, 22, 23, 24

[The Fonz]

And if that's too small a sample size, I just did it with 500 results, and got twelve such combinations. Aka 2.4%. Anyone is free to try this themselves.

[The Fonz]

Enigma: thankyou. That calculation at least shows a willingness to be intellectually honest, since it was lower than mine. What I'm doing at the moment, however, is running a 1000-set analysis on random.org. The number of 'no numbers less than 9' sets seems to support your calculation, for there were 18 such in a thousand. However, I'm also comparing this to the number of 'exactly one number less than nine' sets. Because we know that we're not looking at a wagon with two, three or four scum on it, it's either 0 or 1, so i need to see roughly how likely these two things are, relatively. Back with you in a moment.

[The Fonz]

9 with no scum up to 500
9 with no scum past 500

12 with exactly one scum up to 100
9 with 1 scum 101-200
11 with 1 scum 201-300
15 with 1 scum 301-400
7 with 1 scum 401-500
15 with 1 scum 501-600
13 with 1 scum 601-700
13 with 1 scum 701-800
12 with 1 scum 801-900
17 with 1 scum 901-100

Total: No scum 18
1 Scum: 124

So, roughly six times as likely there is one scum on a given wagon as there are none.

[The Fonz]

I'm pretty sure you're right. Like I said, my first figure was an estimate, it would have taken much more time to work out the conditional probability than to hit 0.67^8. I wasn't worried about being over, since I was pretty confident my rough estimate would show a very low likelihood. My point is that it is very unlikely that no scum were on an eight-man wagon, and that's true whether it's 7%, 4% or 2% likely.

You're right about mafia not being random, but I think the non-random elements, ie the difference between town and scum motivations, actually make scum MORE likely to be on that wagon rather than less. I'm pretty sure in practice I've seen a wagon get to eight solely on town votes less often than one game in ten (which itself assumes that 2-3 wagons will get that high on day one, which seems a decent rough and ready figure). A contextual argument against this might be that ThAd had made a 'slip' which seemed to town to be insider info, but scum knew actually wasn't. Then I could see the scum motivation in trying to go after someone more likely to be rival scum.

Because bear in mind, in a twofold game then if a player looks really scummy and isn't a team-mate, scum aren't going to assume that they're town. They're going to think the scummiest looking players (in their eyes) outside their team are likely rival scum.

[The Fonz]

@ fonz: To your first point I guess I just don't believe flavour arguments hold any weight in this game. The fact that he seems to be an impossible character probably means he is telling the truth if anything, seeing how crazy the history is in this game already!

Baby, bathwater. I mean, again, it's not impossible, but bad fakeclaims exist.

While my votecount reasoning suggests enigma and lowell it is possible that they were all-town wagons. Basically I have lost a bit of faith in my theory. As far as sathoris goes it is not that I have better case on him, I just feel enigma and lowell are more likely town than sathoris (engima because of his genuine sounding -1 post yesterday, and lowell for generally town-looking play throughout the game) - so it is more of a poe reason than anything else.

Meh, I'm always suspicious of 'Genuine sounding L-1 posts' because, well, that's what scum's going to be aiming for. Remember that game where CKD faked a 'Bah, that's a hammer, you just lynched a townie' mistake? I see Sath and Enigma as very similar slots (EGL more so than Enigma). The unique points against them seem to be the VCA on one side, and the flavour argument on the other. I think the VCA is probably the more convincing of the two, especially given the wifom surrounding my role and Tito (From Communist countries, but no friends of the USSR). The best argument I can muster for Enigma town, really, is that he's continued his tunnel on you even when it seems that voting Sathoris would be better for his survival chances. Comes across stubborn town. Then again, he actually said he believes Sathoris to be scum.

I can't even begin to fathom what a mathematical fail this has become. Yes, given 24 values, choosing eight, it is very unlikely that a

specific

set of eight will all be excluded.

That's true, but using it in this sense is fallacious. Any

specific

combination of eight players is equally likely. However, combinations involving one scum are much more likely than combinations involving none. You'd expect two or three, one is possible, none is a really extreme occurrence. This concurs with my experience of mafia playing, when I don't think I've ever seen a wagon in a large game get to eight without a single scum on it. Certainly not a townwagon, and I think ThAd is town.

Lowell, could you explain how Enigma is playing 'Mad scummy?'

[The Fonz]

BV: What do you make of the Beasts/Enigma links?

[The Fonz]

Here are a few things I've noticed about Sathoris. Fonz, I'll look into their links later.

Of the two wagon's I mistrust Amrun the most. ThAd seems to eager to avoid a lynch on himself, as would anybody, but it doesn't seem toodesperate. Amrun felt he had to claim to get not lynched and messed it up a bit. The claim appears manufactured to me, going from memory to contruct a role only to later remember the inaccuracies. I'd look at my role PM again before I'd fully claim.

VOTE:

Amrun

This reason feels forced. Why would a "manufactured" claim have several inconsistencies?

I don't understand this point. A fake claim is far more likely to have inconsistencies than a genuine one.

These two quotes contradict each other. Early in the game, Sathoris didn't seem to buy the case on PoisonIvy, but then he changed his tune and claimed she made several scumtells.

This however is a very good point.

As I've mentioned, selfvoting is a nulltell. Voting someone because of it seems like a policy vote rather than real scumhunting.

Why are policy votes more likely to come from scum, though? As the best-known advocate of policy lynching on this site, I feel I have to object. Scum don't push policies that they don't believe as town. Calling policy lynching 'not real scumhunting' just isn't true. People are so willing to go policy lynch = scum (look at Beasts trying to pin precisely that on me) that I tend to find a willingness to PL townish.

In any case, Furcolow's selfvote felt like a calculated bit of posturing, rather than the usual newbie melting down under pressure cause for selfvoting.

The Fonz is trying to run the town more and more with large postings and commenting and anything he can get his hands. I'm not sure he's always like that, but I'm not comfortable with it. Especially since Jmj and mothrax were quite the opposite but all got the same role.
Then again you're doing something similar.

22

The Fonz

- He's on the right track

Polish townie

Here's another contradictory read. Sathoris, what made you change your mind between these posts?[/quote]

Oh yeah, I'd forgotten 'Fonz is scum because he's trying.' People do change reads, though. It's lazy to go 'you changed your mind! CONTRADICTION!'

[The Fonz]

Sath, being focused on the person you think is scummiest is good town play. And I was 'putting in a lot of work' at the time. That's precisely what you called scummy - 'Commenting on everything, trying to get the town to agree with him' etc.

[The Fonz]

@ThAd: If you think flavour holds no value, then why are you voting Sathoris, the main argument against whom is the whole 'balance of numbers' thing?

@Fonz: Would you mind posting or reposting the case on Beasts/Enigma? I mostly understand your point, but would like to see it in one post.

Sure. Beasts says at the start of yesterday that he wants an Enigma or Fonz wagon. He white knights Smarg HARD, in a way that to me doesn't make a lot of sense for town - basically, a conspiracy theory like I said, and votes Enigma. My impression is that he was simultaneously distancing from a buddy, at the same time as distancing FROM a town lynch that looked very likely to go through due to the obvious strength of the case against Smargaret.

He first brings up Fonz/Enigma here:

The Fonz's most recent "pushing" on Enigma for his inability to vote for his strongest suspects without The Fonz actually voting is sending flags up as likely scumbuddies. The Fonz's argument looks to me to be a justified reason to vote someone.

My argument

was

a justified reason for voting someone. However, Smarg's behaviour was a justified reason for not even considering lynching anyone else, she looked like the most obvious scum I've ever seen. He votes Enigma, calling him my buddy. (So if Enigma ever flips, he's got the chance to scapegoat me).

Then read his ISO 32. At a point when a serious Enigma wagon is building, he, while still attacking Enigma (his first half of the post is dedicated to it) he unvotes and goes to PV, on a bullshit case involving a bogus 'scumslip' which he claimed

specifically implicated PeregrineV as Soviet

at a point where getting rid of the last Soviet was a clearly inferior course of action for town vs lynching an American, whilst still saying he thought Enigma was scum (and, by extension, American because he was calling PV Soviet).

I call his bluff on the 'Fonz is bussing Enigma' thing by voting Enigma. If he's town, or scum without enigma, he should have no problem voting for Enigma there. I call him out on this.

He replies:

You can quit with the melodramatics at any time, Fonz. I was on Enigma all day when it wasn't even a viable wagon. There were no viable wagons at the time (remember all the Feystalling, and the 'rainbow vote count' comments?). So, saying I'm pushing a counterwagon is not even close to true

See, this is just blatantly dishonest, and an attempt to play up the 'I genuinely suspect Enigma' angle as much as possible. As I said at the time, voting for the player most likely to be lynched in place of X is counterwagoning X. Once called out on it, of course, and with support for PV ebbing away, he has to go back to Enigma.
________________________________________________________________________________________

You know what? I might as well just claim. Yuri Gagarin, Soviet Even-Night Vigilante. I killed Nacho and Steph. This shows that the game has at least some flavor symmetry, FWIW...one vig is an American astronaut, the other is a Soviet astronaut.

I saw this in the voting patterns, when I was looking the living players votes. The person you most voted for was the vig target the following night. I almost came out and said it, but then remembered the whole odd/even day thing.

Yeah, I saw the same thing, hence my consistent defence of bvoigt. I mean, I wasn't sure, but it was pretty damn likely he was the vig.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

Since ThAd is town, that leaves Enigma as one of the last two American scum.

Which means, one of the "Soviets" is lying.

I pick Lowell to be lying, leaving Sathoris and Fonz.

TheFonz's play has seemed to be town, so that leaves Sathoris as the last Soviet.

Peregrine, this is important. One American mafioso must have claimed

Soviet

. Not Soviet satellite. There is a two-claim disparity between American claims and Soviet claims, the obvious explanation for which is precisely one American American claiming to be Soviet town. In the situation where you are town, Sathoris is Soviet and Lowell is American. For Lowell to be town, it would require me to have read you wrong, and you be American, while Sathoris is Soviet. I really don't think I'm that likely to be wrong, though.

Also: The Fonz. There is a space there.

@TheFonz- Can you help me understand better why you are voting Engima, and then spend a page arguing math with him after trying to convince him to vote Sathoris? It's a little confusing.

Yup. Arguing the math was simply a case of him trying to assert that it was not that unlikely a wagon of eight had no scum on it, and my counterargument was to try to demonstrate to the rest of the town that it really, really was.

I want him to vote Sathoris for the reasons that I outlined before all the math came up: I don't believe that anyone other than Sath or Enigma would be a reasonable vote today. I think you're Soviet, and therefore don't want to lynch you today, because lynching the Soviet mafia might actually be worse than lynching town. As I said, town will be in an unwinnable position unless either this lynch or Bvoigt's vigging hits American, and I'm basically certain that one of Enigma and Sathoris is American. I personally prefer Enigma, because I trust VCA and actual play more than I do setup guessing in this instance.
_______________________________________________________________
@Bvoigt: I think what you're getting at is this, no?

Mikhail Bulgakov, Soviet Townie, Writer

- I have the ability to post as much as I want to in this thread. I can also write long and complex PMs to the mod regarding the game.

@bvoigt, I am a Vanilla Townie, but my guy was some writer. It says Mikhail Bulgakov, Soviet Townie.

He appeared to claim that 'writer' was part of his actual rolename, but then went back on it. Couple this with the being dead during the cold war issue, this really, really looks like a fakeclaim to me.

__________________________________________________________________
Before anyone hammers, I want everyone to answer this: you do know what to do in a 2:1:1 endgame, right? Because it's possible we might face that tomorrow.

[The Fonz]

It's just occurred to me that I suppose lynching Soviet wouldn't be the end of the world. We would just need to insist that bvoigt not shoot unless he's 100% sure the target is mafia. That would give us a 3-2 lylo. I do think town's chances are much better if we hit American today, though.

[The Fonz]

I'm not really getting what your saying here- I really do assume the mod made it 12/12, but Che is part of the West only geographically, so at that point I don't really know if it's exactly 12/12, but it doesn't matter at this point.

But going by that theory, Walesa is of the Eastern Bloc 'only geographically.' My role is Eastern, but absolutely not communist. So if those two balance, that still leaves one more commie claim than capitalist.

[The Fonz]

If you beleive the American to be claiming Soviet, then we should be lynching Lowell. Sathoris is claiming satellite, and bvoigt and I are regular Soviet.

No, because we also know there is an American who didn't claim Soviet (ruling out the ridiculous scenario where the Soviet claims Americans and both Americans claim Soviet), and my town read on ThAd is strong, and you almost never see eight-man wagons without any scum, let alone on town. So I'm sure there's American, not Soviet, American scum between Sathoris and Enigma, and both those slots are also very scummy in their own right. Therefore lynch one, if he's scum the other is likely town, if he's town then we vig the other, is the better course of action. I don't want to lynch Lowell, because while I think the most likely scenario is that he's American, there's too many moving parts there, and he's individually more townish than the other two. I'm more confident that ThAd is town than that you are specifically Soviet and not American.

OK you lost me. Sathoris is claiming Albanian, Enigma is claiming American. Lowell is faking Soviet, or all three could be faking. Why is lynching the last soviet bad? Why is lynching an American better?

*Sigh* I explained this already, I wish sometimes you'd be willing to go back in the thread and actually read stuff.

There are more living Americans. Therefore, they are the greater threat. An American lynch could actually lead to a town win overnight between BV and crosskills. Or we could have a 3-1 endgame tomorrow if there's one crosskill- worst case scenario is 2-1-1. A Soviet lynch, meanwhile, could actually lead to a town loss overnight if bvoigt misvigs. I've mellowed on this a little, since it's entirely possible for BV to not shoot overnight, but even then it's 3-2 Lylo with town having to lynch right twice in a row to win.

Hang on, as I type this, I realize that if we lynch Peregrine and he flips Soviet or town, that confirms Lowell as American, and he can then be vigged. So scratch that entire train of thought. PV is a fine lynch today.

unvote, vote: PeregrineV

Not a fakeclaim, and yes, until bvoigt claimed I want confusion among the mafia. If they think I'm a PR, then they don't hit the real vig. But since bvoigt claimed, it doesn't really matter.

This just seems absurd. You claimed with the word 'townie' in your claim post, and state that your flavour tells you only that you can write stuff, and expect us to believe you thought it might hint to the scum you were a PR? Squirming scum is squirming.

[The Fonz]

Although now I'm thinking, even if the above does happen, we'll probably have to choose between Sathoris and Enigma at some point. I'd rather do it when we have the safety net of a vig.

Bah.

unvote

I need to think about this.

[The Fonz]

Depends on who the scum is. If we lynch Soviet scum, just remember that you can't afford to miss. The question is if you have more faith in your vigging accuracy or the town's ability to lynch correctly at LyLo. If we lynch town, you have to shoot, and shoot American at that.

Broadly speaking, if we lynch Enigma or Sath and they flip American, then it goes to night 4-1-1. Assuming we lynch Enigma, I would definitely shoot, because from my perspective, 2/3 of Peregrine/Lowell/Sathoris are scum. That's pretty good odds, and the worst case scenario (you hit town, both scum hit town) leads to a 1:1:1 endgame. Which is no worse than the 2:1:1 version from holding fire. So there's no downside. If there's one crosskill, then you have a 2:1 endgame, and four-man endgame (the no-shot result) isn't really any better than three-man. IF both scum crosskill, obviously it doesn't matter what you do, town wins anyway.

2:1:1 situation,

first town player to get online self-votes.

Other town player should vote for whoever self-votes. Scum will not self-vote, since doing so will mean dying and losing. The reason is that you need scum to crosskill, therefore removing one of the two town targets is pro-town- town is no better off with two town alive and all the scum dead than with one. 1:1:1 endgame (if between lynch and NKs we get one dead American and three dead town) then the surviving town player should vote no-lynch.

I think, having gone back and forth all day, I'll return to a

vote: Enigma.

[The Fonz]

Peregrine, it's probably best you make up your mind fairly soon. Game seems to be stagnating.

[The Fonz]

Enigma, the nationality claims actually help you. The major argument for lynching Sathoris over you was the freaking nationality claims.

If we exclude nationality considerations entirely, you're the player who was on a wagon with all dead or confirmed town, you're the guy who's strongly tied to dead scum Beasts of the Sea, and you're the guy who replaced a player who stayed in the game for four days and yet contributed basically nothing.

[The Fonz]

Peregrine, coming in that late when two players are at L-1 and not even having the guts to pick between them is the worst kind of posturing.

[The Fonz]

Vote: bvoigt

[The Fonz]

I'd just like to thank the glorious proletariat, without whom none of this would have been possible.

Yeah, can we see the full role PMs please? Wanna know WTH happened with Smarg/Feysal.

Soviet QT here. I was kinda blogging my thoughts once I was the last one left. I'd love to see the dead QT if there was one.

[The Fonz]

Bulletproof and rolecop >>> JK and ninja (especially when the only there was only 1 watcher that could make the role effective)

N4, isn't that considered me "visiting" Beasts?

>, but not >>>. BP, as ever, is incredibly swingy depending on who holds it. I was expecting something along the lines of Mafia Doctor and tracker for the American's equivalent. I mean, the rolecop didn't actually tell us anything particularly useful, and no-one ever shot at me.

The town could have done with one more power role, I think. Maybe a JOAT of some kind. Given the win conditions, probably one fewer Soviet and US townie and two more 'other nations' ones as well. Sathoris would have been better off claiming third-party capitalist than third-party communist, I think, though it was pretty hard to anticipate that. Obviously, there was no way I was claiming El Fidel.

I have to say, I figuratively crapped myself midgame when I saw someone say in MD that jmj never lurked as town.

It was weird, really, because the first two days I was here I found myself pushing lynches that not only were unpopular and on town, but didn't actually benefit my win condition since Furc and Peregrine were claimed Soviets. (This is why I was really surprised the Americans shot ThAd and not bvoigt. Why would you shoot someone who was obviously American anyway, and not someone who was Soviet AND confirmed vig to boot?) It seemed like the Americans either didn't grasp or didn't care about the specifics of their win condition. For my part, I didn't bus Gonnano despite his clusterfuck of a claim simply because I figured I wouldn't get any town cred whatsoever out of it that late in the game.

If you look at my little blog, you'll see I genuinely thought Smarg was scum. On the other hand, I didn't really care whether Enigma or Sathoris was actually American scum. The thing that mattered to me was that I had to get rid of Enigma because he couldn't be Soviet, and was much less sure that Bvoigt would kill Enigma after a Sath townflip than that bv would kill Sath after an Enigma one.

On, and on 2:1:1s: What I stated there is usually the correct course of action, but there's no point in lynching a CONFIRMED townie. You might as well no lynch there as do that. Wait for the unconfirmed townie to get on and lynch him instead. Of course, it still wouldn't have mattered here since I was bulletproof.

[The Fonz]

Oh yeah, and worthy of note: during the first few days, pretty much all of the scum with the possible exception of BoTS were lurking.

[The Fonz]

OK, then ALL the mafia were lurking.

[The Fonz]

Peregrine was the ONLY one to call BotS, iirc.

Only TOWN one.

Hello and welcome to your Cold War Mafia Neighbourhood QT. Remember, although you share a common language you are on different sides of the wall now and cannot be sure of one another's intentions.
Members
pappums rat is Erich Honecker - Soviet Neighbour
smargaret is Willy Brandt - West-German Neighbour

I asked Smarg specifically if the role PM outright stated that PR/Feysal's rolename was 'East German Neighbor' or if it was just part of the flavour. I asked her to check with the mod. There was enough confusion there for it to be ambiguous, Smarg shouldn't have insisted that Feysal was confirmed scum. Of course, Feysal should have flagged up the first post of the QT more in his defence. LOL, the raging argument between Beasts and I over Feysal/Smarg seems to have been the product of me knowing Feysal wasn't Soviet, and Beasts knowing Smarg wasn't American.

OMG I should have known. Fonz is always scum.

Haha. This was the last to finish of a set of four games I kindly offered to replace into in January and got scumbag roles in each one- Consulmaker, Seinfeld, Hydras, and this. The two games I played from the start in that period, I was town in both (Simpsons and WoW). Kinda makes up for the entire year when I didn't get a scum role.

Should have known you were scum earlier- you were trying.

[The Fonz]

Claimed vig lynch was crazy though. I mean, just no lynch right out of the gate and you are good to go.

Didn't matter though. Lowell would have killed PV, I'd still have killed Lowell, leaving two soviet players alive, WC met.

[The Fonz]

I don't know if the neighbor PMs were wrote in that way on purpose or if it was a mistake. When that was all going down, the people I spoke too seemed to think it wasn't such a big deal because of East-Germany's presence in the Soviet union. So I don't know...

Anyway dead topic

East Germany was not 'in' the Soviet Union, any more than France was in the United States. It was a Soviet satellite.

[The Fonz]

There was nothing fake about it. I was genuinely unsure which one was American, but I knew that either way, I was better off with the claimed American dead, since even if he was town it helped with my WC of leaving only Soviets alive. I was seriously considering switching when it was 3-3, and probably would have done so had bovigt not come along and decided to switch himself. I think I'd still have won with a Sathoris lynch, but I don't think it would have been as neat, and depending on who bv decided to vig could have left me in a 4p endgame with only me and you as possible Soviet scumbags. Once Enigma died, town literally couldn't win.

It's why, incidentally, I don't think Sathoris' assessment of the ThAd kill as making it obv I was Soviet was fair- it didn't matter whether ThAd 'believed' PV or not, since town wasn't going to be able to afford to lynch scum day seven either way, rendering it moot. Soviet scum's pressing need was to eliminate a) obvtown and b) non-Soviets, and ThAd was both. I was pretty much flabbergasted the Americans went for ThAd rather than bv, that didn't make any sense to me.

Also, made props to ThAd for coining the term 'Feysalling' which is going to be a firm part of my mafia-playing lexicon from hereonin.

[The Fonz]

Honestly I forgot about the wincon and when I did I didn't think it would include US townies. But even if we did take out BV we wouldn't never got to fulfill our wincon because by doing so it would have to 1v1v0 anyway and we'd already won.

I figured it could either end up in a 2v1v1 situation, at which point scum could be lynched. But BV self voted and it ended there. A scum lynch would guarantee the rivalscum a win, hence eliminating support for PV which we thought was soviet scum. A no lynch would be as uncertain as in a 1v1v1 night, which we ended up in anyway.

With a chance for a lynch I figured we'd be best of with a townie who didn't think PV was town.

My assessment perhaps didn't feel fair knowing what you knew. But what we thought it was the only explanation.

In a 2-1-1, town simply CAN'T lynch scum though. BP or otherwise. Goes to night 2-1, scum shoots the vig, 1-1 last townie gets endgamed. Town had no chance, and had I not been BP their only chance would still have been the crosskill.

[The Fonz]

No, there was no one huge screwup. I mean, like you say, none of you got lynched. You got caught out by setup math- you'd have been much better off claiming American satellite than Soviet, that would have kept ThAdmiral in play as a possible scum candidate. You might have been able to suggest that Beasts' attempts to tie me to Enigma suggested me as a buddy as much as it did Enigma. Beasts played well- his townie tunnel was very well faked- he just got caught by the setup too, because when Smarg flipped town, he pretty much had to be. Having the entire scumgroup claim either American or Soviet might have worked.

[The Fonz]

No, I woulda won, because my win condition was 'Only Soviet players' (not 'Soviet Mafia') alive. That's why Honecker was 'Soviet' in the first place, to balance the number of US and Soviet roles, and why I was astounded the American mafia shot ThAd (who counted toward their win condition) rather than bv (who counted against it, and had a gun).