Metropolis: Revisited [Game Over]
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Kast tl;dr
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Hi all. Replacing in and catching up. Meant to do this earlier, but got side tracked. I should have the rest of today free for this so expect a catchup post in the next 3-6 hours.ShowT: 9/6.5/0
M: 8/2/1
O: 0/3.5/0
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Kast tl;dr
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Spoiler: Notable Events
Other Thoughts:
-If the DSK will help us out with a day kill (@DSK-go for StrangerCoug, he's very likely IC and I doubt he has the vest since he isn't under threat/suspicion), then we're at 20 players and can both Lynch AND Roleblock. This requires EVERYONE to be smart with your strikes.
--@Mod-Based on D1 lynch, it looks like the DSK's kill no longer counts for the day's strike %. But if the person killed by the DSK makes the strike BEFORE getting killed, does that strike still count? (seems like it should since the person was still struck and it can't be taken back). If this is true, it technically gives us a chance to both Lynch AND Roleblock on days that aren't divisible by 5 (assuming the DSK works with us AND the DSK's target works with us...probably not safe assumptions in MOST cases).
-I'd strongly prefer if someone from my Preferred Lynch Category gets Lynched. It would be great if DSK kills from that list as well (StrangerCoug is the guy you want). In the event the DSK is willing to do that, it would also be great to Roleblock from that list.
--Hrezs is my top/preferred candidate based on what looks like a botched false claim. When RC first asked me to replace in, I looked briefly at the wiki & simulation and assumed there was one of each town PR present. I can understand other players making that same assumption without seeing a role PM, or without having a town PR. I don't believe that Hrezs could be a security guard and not pay more attention to his own role; ESPECIALLY if he NOTICED a potential discrepancy as he claims he did.
Will Not Lynch:
Spoiler: Kast
Beats No Lynch:
Spoiler: KiseSpoiler: MoISpoiler: KageSpoiler: ExeSpoiler: MaguaSpoiler: CKDSpoiler: PlumSpoiler: BSSpoiler: BL
Acceptable Lynch:
Spoiler: PandaSpoiler: ThAdSpoiler: NachoSpoiler: ABRSpoiler: KKSpoiler: Camn
Preferred Lynch:
Spoiler: HrezsSpoiler: FriendSpoiler: LLDSpoiler: AGMSpoiler: SCShowT: 9/6.5/0
M: 8/2/1
O: 0/3.5/0
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Kast tl;dr
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@Camn-
I'm reading this as: "There's lots of scum and this game is complicated. Let's not lynch anyone and hope the scum win this game for town." Please show me what I'm missing.
@KK-
-Kagelord's post obviously won't draw any PRs to reveal themselves. You might have a point if this wasn't an semi-open game; it is one, so ANYONE who corrects him reveals NOTHING about PR status. He was being stupid, but being stupid doesn't equal being scum. Kagelord's post is a strong example of VI behavior that isn't affiliation indicative, but which scum are very happy to jump all over as an excuse. You jumping on that is very likely an opportunistic scum-tell.
-What meta? My impression is you are a good player; in this game you aren't living up to that.
@Kage-
You're joking, but seriously don't feed the scum. Someone's going to see all this BS support and throw down a strike. Then we lose our chance to publicly roleblock AND lynch.Hm... tough decision, but I'm gonna have to go with Friend. Though I would still prefer ABR.
@SC-
Playing the oblivious townie card...What's the vest all about, as well?
@BS-
If you have concerns about ThAd asking the question, then why encourage him by answering?
@ThAd-
This is an extreme misrepresentation of the truth.Most people have expressed a willingness to lynch one or the other. I don't think it is unreasonable to suggest either is going to be our lynch today.
Assuming the DSK wants to kill someone today, we're going to have 20 players which means we get to kill and role block. Prematurely striking is essentially throwing away the free public roleblock.
@IC Speculation-
Wasn't going to touch on this since RC already PMed me mostly the same thing he posted in thread; however, BL either isn't thinking about it, or wants to appear that she's not thinking about it. IC that don't gain a new win con but remain in the game poses a balance problem. At least one IC knows the full membership of one scum team. Presumably the ICs share this info with each other, so both remaining ICs would know the full team compositions of both scum teams. However, simply removing the ICs from the game could cripple a scum team and/or potentially rob town of a PR depending on the game state.
RC additionally told me that this isn't something to worry about, so there is some kind of mechanic in place to avoid ICs from breaking the game if one of them dies.ShowT: 9/6.5/0
M: 8/2/1
O: 0/3.5/0
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Kast tl;dr
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You are evading the point. Some people have expressed suspicion of Kage and of Friend. There's LOTS of other candidates who are just as if not more suspected. You arbitrarily picked your own suspects and completely arbitrarily tried to force/persuade everyone to vote or strike one of your two suspects.ThAd wrote:I don't believe it is a misrepresentation, let alone an extreme one. Look back on who people have said they are happy to lynch/scummy. You will find more people willing to lynch friend or kagelord than not.
Instead of using your BS, arbitrary scheme for forcing a lynch between Kage or Friend; post a case for either or both of them and convince people to vote your suspect. As it is, you're pressing people to give you cases and ignore all other players; this gives your preferred lynch candidates more pressure and more focus while letting you appear to be active but keeping you "safe". It's scummy as hell.
More misrepresentation. Your objection has 2 major holes in it.ThAd wrote:Well I am certainly for the dsk killing someone if they would be so willing to oblige, but we can't rely on them to do what is best for the town.
How long are you prepared to wait for the daykill?
-DSK has absolutely no incentive to not kill. He/she will definitely and obviously kill someone today. Acting as if DSK won't kill is as bad as thinking scum are just going to claim in thread.
-Nothing I posted has anything to do with waiting for the DSK before picking targets. We decide who is getting lynched and who is getting roleblocked. We can use our votes for it and take the runner up as the RB target. DSK's best interests would be to kill after seeing who is likely to be lynched, especially if DSK is a potential lynch candidate and his/her kill can be used to affect that.
@Nacho-
My slot was absent for the whole of D1. That's something I can easily see people being suspicious of; and it's a potential tell. Apologizing for replacing out since you couldn't keep up and know you still won't be able to is not a scum tell at all. Not sure why you need to fabricate a bogus tell when there's a legitimate reason to be suspicious.ShowT: 9/6.5/0
M: 8/2/1
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Kast tl;dr
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Nacho wrote:I'm not attacking the fact that he apologized for replacing out. Where in my post gave you that perception?
ODM said "I'm sorry for replacing out, don't hold it against my replacement." You bolded the second half and directly stated ODM's slot is scummy for making that statement; you didn't explicitly state, "you're scummy for apologizing", but it's clear that's exactly what you're saying. You explicitly are not calling him scummy for being absent for D1 and you are explicitly not calling him scummy for replacing. You're only calling him scummy for the apology/hope.Nacho wrote:He hopes that his replacing out won't make his predecessor look scummy, but he doesn't mention anything about town winning or that sort of thing.
Try reading. Your whining is completely irrelevant to my comment.Hrezs wrote:The simulation lists TWO paramedics, so clearly you were mistaken just as much as I was
The problem is I know you're good at coming up with a plausible case to try justifying your vote after the fact. That plus I'll recheck your iso when I have more time, but I don't recall seeing what you're referencing in the catchup.AGM wrote:Your required reading for tomorrow: My totally different, actually reasoned out opinion that I posted later (instead of just the lolscum response that I give all the time).
@Camn-
-Explain what I missed int he rest of your post. I'm not seeing it. It sounds like you were simply advocating one of the most anti-town strategies that can be advocated in a game of mafia.
-Scum or town who knows the whole (minus DSK) setup aren't any more likely to obviously push scum than players who just scumhunt and figure it out. Revealing that you KNOW who the scum are makes a player into a much more likely NK since you're dangerous to that scum team and you're going to be harder to lynch.
If you're actually ballsy-scum publicly claiming your GF, I applaud you. ThAd's "maybe DSK won't kill today" speculation is still a load of BS even if this kills my analogy.Toog wrote:Say StrangerCoug single-handedly leads a lynch against ABR, and he flips Gang Leader of the Night Riders
@Mod-
I'm pretty sure you didn't answer my question (and I'm too lazy to check if you did). I'll rephrase it for something a bit more relevant given our current situation:
-What happens if the DSK kills a player who has already been struck?
--Do players who struck the now dead guy get to strike again? (Assuming no)
--Does a strike by the dead player still count? (Assuming yes)
--Which strikes count towards the 40% & 60% thresholds?
---Is it based on number of living players?
---Is it based on number of strikes already cast + number that can still be cast? (if so does it include strikes on the DSK's target)?
@Toog-
You couldn't wait for confirmation on Magua's potential strike before striking?
@Current wagons-
I'd go with ThAd over the other two. KK would be next.
@ThAd-
Going to acknowledge that I saw your responses. I'm not sure how to proceed or if I even need to since your responses were pretty much, "Lol, you're right on all counts, I'm scummy and I don't care. Now that we've agreed, let's lynch someone else." I'm kinda dumbstruck.ShowT: 9/6.5/0
M: 8/2/1
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Kast tl;dr
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There's 21 players still alive. Based on RC's clarification (strike % ONLY checks # of living players and ignores ALL ELSE)we can STILL block and strike.However, we can ONLY do that if Kage and KK are the targets.
(1) We have 21 players for a total of 21 possible strikes.
(2) DSK will kill someone before the day ends. Anyone objecting to the contrary is just spouting nonsense/anti-town distractions.
(2.1) After DSK's kill, the lynch threshold will drop from 13 to 12.
(2.2) After DSK's kill, the block threshold will drop from 9 to 8.
(3) Current strike situation (with Toog being a potentially wasted strike AGAIN), allows us to make an 8 strike-12 strike split between Kage and KK (1 + 8 + 12 = 21).
(4) If everyone, or at least a large majority of players, thinks it is worthwhile to do this, then we need to decide which of Kage/KK should be lynched and which should be blocked.
(5) After deciding, we should strike until the Block target is at 6 strikes and the lynch target is at 11 strikes.
(6) We give DSK a deadline to kill and if not the remaining 3 players strike the lynch target (this prevents DSK from screwing the lynch by daykilling someone who has not struck yet).
(6.1) DSK has no incentive to screw with this UNLESS he is the lynch candidate. If he is, then he gets lynched even if he tries screwing with town.
THAT SAID, I'm not sure that it is better to get both a block and strike if it means scummy players like ThAd and others get a free pass for today. I think there's a reasonable enough chance of at least one of them being scum, that we'll learn something (we also learn some about the crazy premature strikers). I'll go along if majority of players want to do it. If not, the ThAd wagon looks best of the three.ShowT: 9/6.5/0
M: 8/2/1
O: 0/3.5/0
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Kast tl;dr
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To clarify-
-When I put block and strike, it should be read as block and lynch.
-I would like everyone who has not yet struck to EXPLICITLY state whether they think we should Block AND Lynch among KK/Kage OR whether it would be better to ignore that and just Lynch the top suspect.
-For reference, I think it would be pretty close. It would probably be slightly better to just Lynch the top suspect; however, I am willing to go along with Block AND Lynch of KK/Kage IF a majority of non-strikers decides to go with that.ShowT: 9/6.5/0
M: 8/2/1
O: 0/3.5/0
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Kast tl;dr
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@Toog-
-Yes it has been addressed.
-Your thought is wrong. Your strike has already been cast. You are effectively irrelevant to any Lynch-AND-Block plan for the remainder of D2.ShowT: 9/6.5/0
M: 8/2/1
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Kast tl;dr
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Kast tl;dr
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It doesn't look like enough people support a Kage/KK Lynch&Block that it's worth pursuing.
@KK/ABR-
Thanks for putting in that work.
@Kise-
When you're back from V/LA, clarify if you prefer ThAd or Kage. You previously said you're up for striking ThAd, but more recently said you prefer Kage to KK. Do you prefer Kage to ThAd or ThAd to Kage?
@Friend-
You haven't stated a thought on ThAd. Do so. Is he better or worse than Kage?
@Plum-
Please catch up.
@AlmasterGM-
Please clarify, are you opposed to ThAd lynch?
@Hrezs-
Do you mean that ThAd-scum is likely to be unlynchable whereas Kage-scum would be lynchable?
@Nacho-
Please catchup.
@Bunnylover-
What are your thoughts on ThAd and are you willing to lynch him?ShowT: 9/6.5/0
M: 8/2/1
O: 0/3.5/0
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Kast tl;dr
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@MoI-
Hmm, not sure I agree. Undeclared people need to clarify if ThAd is one of their targets. We don't want to bring two competing wagons to 11 and 6 strikes then DSK suddenly kills the last person before they can place a strike.
To be clear there, if you are a townie, don't place a 6th strike on an uncertain to be lynched player. Doing so creates a significant opportunity for DSK to prevent town from lynching anyone today.ShowT: 9/6.5/0
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Kast tl;dr
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This is silly. DSK only has incentive to screw with town's lynch if DSK is the one in danger of being lynched. Shooting town's lynch candidate to prevent it from being lynched is equivalent to not shooting.LLD wrote:The DSK is going to shoot ThAd when he has sufficient votes on him that no one else can be lynched/blocked this day.
LLD is prob-scum but I strongly doubt she's DSK.
Lol-didn't realize Plum's uberlong quote was a tag screwup. That's a lot more along the lines of what I expect. Don't necessarily agree with all of it, but it looks like Plum-town. Also, good catch/point on AGM.
@CKD-
You probably don't understand the ThAd wagon because you're completely ignoring the scumminess of his action. At the moment, I'm weighing between:ORSpoiler: Town blind to the ThAd's scumminess since you can't get over your suspicion of KageLordSpoiler: Scum-that-can't-think-like-a-townie.
You're forgetting that AGM-town doesn't know ThAd's affiliation. Potential IC claim...another great target for DSK/Mafia.AGM wrote:It is thanks to careless striking (like yours) that we are stuck in this dumb situation where obvscum get to waltz around while we are locked in on a town lynch.@DSK-I'm serious about the IC read on StrangerCoug. Now's probably the best time to shoot since there's really low chance for IC to vest SC. It'll help you in the long run since it could quite possibly remove the IC team and their bulletproof vest from the game. AGM's had a bit more suspicion on him and is a more likely vest target atm.
@Mod-If the IC player with the vest is lynched, does the vest disappear with him (and would town be notified of this?)
BS! Voting and not striking until we have a consensus vote does EXACTLY what you claim won't happen. Striking prematurely and irresponsibly allows scum to hide on an "inevitable" strike wagon; and let's face it, there's probably several scum who waited on striking until the "most townie" players discussed and figured out the scummiest viable lynch. Now they've jumped on with impunity and are mixed in among the actual townies.Camn wrote:@agm: that is the problem with this game.
Not striking yields no threat of a lynch, thus reveals no true reactions.. Thus gives the town no information.
Striking, however, though revealing, tends to screw us right in the ass, because we are 'forced' to stick with a lynch we might not even support. Additionally, people can use MATHEMATICAL justifications for their strikes, and even for THE HAMMER!!!!
this is no way to play this game.
@Camn-
Do you have any meta for strongly pushing no lynch as a townie?
The initial push push might be accepted as inexperience and/or not thinking things through, but it's been discussed already. Continuing to raise such an anti-town strategy is baffling.
@All-
It's been said, but bears saying again:
ThAd is the only player who can be lynched today. Strikes on anyone else at this point are equivalent to votes for no lynch. Don't do it. Don't listen to the scum trying to save himself (actually if ThAd's buddies haven't struck yet, 1-2 of you can safely reveal yourself(ves) without messing up the town...so you're welcome to do so).
Strike: ThAdShowT: 9/6.5/0
M: 8/2/1
O: 0/3.5/0
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Kast tl;dr
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Everyone PLEASE no striking until we get consensus lynch (and block) targets.
With 17 alive,takesLYNCHINGand11takesBLOCKING.7
After DSK kill,takesLYNCHINGand10takesBLOCKING.7
In this case, it's not worthwhile to aim for the Lynch & Block, UNLESS the DSK kills someone while we are at 9 or less strikes on the Lynch candidate. If you're a townie and you are the target of the Lynch; at least make yourself useful and strike the block target (presumably the runner up).
@Scums-
Nice, keep shooting like that.
@DSK-
Follow the lead and kill more scum please! (I'm wondering if the DSK's kill is limited...e.g. can only be submitted after x strikes placed or after a player is at L-1 strikes,...)
@LLD/SC-
Looks like distancing/bussing. I'm okay with either one's lynch today. However, I'd actually prefer a Friend lynch to either of them with one of them (LLD prolly) getting potentially blocked (even better if DSK shoots SC).
VOTE: Friend
@Hrezs-
Did you use your power last night? If so, who did you target and why? (Obviously his *target* should only say something if it's proof that he's lying scum).
@BS-
Why are you pushing MoI first instead of Friend first? You seem to think MoI is scum as a result of:
(1) Ties with AGM (confirmed scum)
(2) Ties with Friend (scummy player)
It would be prudent to pursue the player who has the same ties to AGM and is himself scummy, no?
@ThAd-
AGM and CKD's opposition to ThAd-wagon highlights an important point: ThAd's play was so extremely scummy and bad for town that ONLY the scum GFs opposed the lynch (plus Camn who opposed ANY lynch). They probably felt safe doing so since they might draw a cop if ThAd flipped scum. LLD sort of opposed it (the exchange with ABR and inexplicable reluctance to strike until hammer was inconsistent with her previous statement of preference for ThAd over any viable alternative).
@Current Reads-
Spoilers added for people with changed or updated placement/notes.
Will Not Lynch:
Kast
Beats No Lynch:Spoiler: KiseSpoiler: MoIKage
Exe
Magua
BLSpoiler: Hrezs
Acceptable Lynch:
Panda
ABRSpoiler: CamnSpoiler: PlumSpoiler: BS
Preferred Lynch:Spoiler: FriendSpoiler: LLDSpoiler: SCSpoiler: KKShowT: 9/6.5/0
M: 8/2/1
O: 0/3.5/0
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Kast tl;dr
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WTF Toog? If this wasn't a semi-open game, I'd guess you're a Jester. Is your plan "fuck the town as much as possible til they're too dumbstruck to retaliate"?
I really wanted to lynch my top suspects, but if this is what we have to deal with for the rest of the game, then fine, I'll accept a Toog lynch to prevent that.
That said, I'm still down for a Friend/Xalxe lynch, or one of LLD/SC.
Btw, Camn is almost as bad as Toog. She was whining about getting a working system, then goes and ignores all that.
@Kage/MoI/Toog-
Right, limitation might be on when the kill is revealed instead of made. I'm just not seeing the point behind DSK waiting until L-1 for the kill to appear as opposed to L-3 or L-4, when it's already been decided and just gives town a chance to roleblock scum.
@Hrezs-
You didn't answer my question.ShowT: 9/6.5/0
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Kast tl;dr
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Kast tl;dr
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Still going through re-read but this stood out:
@Mod-
Was this meant to be game relevant and to tell us your IC BP Vest is actually intended as Bulletproof ANDRC wrote:I would have thought that Bulletproof Vest impliedBaseball-Bat-Proof, and surely Fist-Proof.Lynch-Proof? BP does not traditionally mean Lynch-Proof.
If that is what you meant, does the Fist-Proof also imply Lynch-Proof, or is that a reference to the 40% Role-Block?
@Magua-
I think you are more risk averse than the average person on this site. Toog's strikes every day have been anti-town. His strike today promises to continue this anti-town behavior and is self-admittedly made with the expectation that town will continue to let him (and anyone else) get away with reckless anti-town striking with no consequence.ShowT: 9/6.5/0
M: 8/2/1
O: 0/3.5/0
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Kast tl;dr
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Ugh...was in the middle of counting out votes/strikes at different points with the aim of lynching someone actively scummy instead of just someone actively and extremely anti-town. BL's strike makes that pointless as we're 1 strike shy of lynching anyone who doesn't already have strikes on them now (DSK kill would give us exactly enough, but also has the ability to stop the lynch...DSK would have incentive to stop lynches on self as well as frame any similar person).
I'll try to finish up the count/analysis tonight or tomorrow.
For now, Toog is the best lynch out of the people we can lynch. He is a viable lynch for today. He has committed himself to screwing with town with no shame while showing absolutely no interest in working as a group/finding scum/doing anything that remotely benefits town. The main counterpoint is that I wouldn't say he's really done anything extremely scummy so much as done lots of extremely anti-town things. This is mitigated since the alternatives are in similar (actually better) positions in that regard.
Strike: ToogShowT: 9/6.5/0
M: 8/2/1
O: 0/3.5/0
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Kast tl;dr
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@Toog-
You're doing the lying thing again. Quit it.
@KK-
Explain your day-rushing comment. It sounds like you weren't paying attention to the strikes/game state prior to my strike.
As of BL's strike, Toog and BS became the only candidates possible to lynch, with BS requiring all but 1 player agreeing while Toog required all but 3.
@Plum-
If you really feel strongly about BS as opposed to Toog, you're free to force the issue. It looks like most of the people who have not yet struck are either scum waiting for permission to pile on a wagon, or town in the same boat.
This, pretty much. If Toog is scum gambiting, then his lynch is a win. If he's idiot town just playing to screw the rest of town, then he's certainly better than the alternatives.ABR wrote:Can't you see that Toog is going to strike someone every day without any type of consensus? Wake the fuck up. You have a responsability to strike him.ShowT: 9/6.5/0
M: 8/2/1
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Kast tl;dr
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@LLD striking early...really? was that really necessary?
LLD-scum with SC-IC is very plausible. Fits perfectly with my reads on the two slots. SC-scum with LLD-IC is also plausible, but LLD's semi-desperate opening posts read a lot like BS yesterday.
Also, at this point it looks like MoI and BS were probably both wrong and their 4th member was probably the IC on their team. An interesting point to note, MoI said that BS had already bussed their 4th member sometime yesterday. Reviewing BS's posts in iso, she named:
-Friend and MoI
-Toog and ABR
-LLD
I'm inclined to believe MoI was telling the truth there; so likely one of Friend(Xalxe) or Toog or ABR or LLD is IC.
However, I kinda doubt LLD-IC would need to push SC so desperately today. If DSK can shoot one of {Friend/Toog/ABR}, that would be great.
@All-
With 13 alive we need 8 to lynch. Even after the DSK kills, we're going to need 8 to lynch. However we need 6 to roleblock (after DSK kills only 5). Today PLEASE nobody else strike until we come to agreement. I propose we putting one of SC/LLD at 7 strikes and the other at 4 strikes. If DSK is willing to kill someone who has struck and who is not LLD/SC, then we can lynch one of the two and roleblock the other. We only put one at 4 strikes on the off chance that DSK kills a player who has not struck yet so we still have a final strike to finish off whichever of LLD/SC.ShowT: 9/6.5/0
M: 8/2/1
O: 0/3.5/0
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Kast tl;dr
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Left this part out:
I'm happy with either being lynched, but I think the chance of SC as IC is greater, so I guess VOTE: SC for lynch and VOTE: LLD for roleblock.
If either of SC/LLD wants to claim scum and prove the other is an IC, please do so; if that's the case, I'm all in favor of lynching the one who doesn't claim. You'll get an extra night (roleblocked), but it beats getting flat out lynched and losing right away.
EBWOP:
LLD, it really sounds like you're claiming scum and claiming SC as the IC on your team. Is that the case?ShowT: 9/6.5/0
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Kast tl;dr
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@Mod-
Forgot to mention but I'm on another business trip so access is limited/different from normal times.
@Exe-
Great! Also, given the strikes, we're lynching LLD today and not you.
@DSK-
Please shoot someone who has already placed a strike. Preferably Exe.
@Toog-
Actually, I messed up the numbers; assumed there was 2 kills last night and thought we only had 13 alive. With 14 alive it takes 9 to lynch and 6 to block. With 13 alive it takes 8 to lynch and 6 to block.
@All-
Let's lynch LLD today and roleblock SC. We should place 7 strikes on LLD and 4 strikes on SC. DSK is free to kill anyone who has already placed a strike (preferably Exe).
Players who have not struck yet:
Kise, Xalxe, Toogeloo, KageLord, Hrezs, Plum, Kublai Khan
LLD is at 5 strikes. Two people from the list please strike LLD.
SC is at 1 strike. Three people from the list please strike SC.
After that we can wait for the DSK to kill.
-If DSK kills Exe (or anyone who has already struck), then we're golden and we should have 2 more strikes on SC and the hammer on LLD.
-If DSK kills someone else (possible since DSK might leave Exe for tomorrow's lynch...), then we probably have to give up on the roleblock and all remaining players should strike LLD.ShowT: 9/6.5/0
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Kast tl;dr
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Also, I'm just gonna go ahead andStrike: LLD. Players who haven't struck yet should still follow the plan; that means 1 more strike on LLD and three more strikes on SC.
If DSK doesn't kill someone after those strikes, we can assume DSK isn't playing nice and just go for the LLD lynch (potentially skipping the DSK kill).ShowT: 9/6.5/0
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Kast tl;dr
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Hey guys, some thoughts I didn't get to post yesterday (updated):
-If LLD was an IC, then it is completely implausible that she would have come out as she did without wearing the IC vest. If the lynch had failed, it would have confirmed her as IC (and based on Exe, it would have cleared SC as non-IC). Since the lynch DID fail, then it doesn't seem at all plausible that LLD was IC.
-Either Exe is the skullcrusher IC (in which case he's almost definitely wearing the vest and thus unlynchable) OR one of the previous skullcrushers was the IC and we have confirmation that ICs don't flip on death.
@Exe-
To be clear, does that strike on Magua mean you failed to kill him? Is there a point to striking Magua instead of waiting to see if either Magua/SC is a viable target?
Kage's post that KK quoted strongly indicates he had innocent results on KK and on Magua. At this point, I'm counting both of them as confirmed town. You are self admitted scum and possibly scum IC, so if you're seriously pushing a case on someone else, you better have a good reason (a failed kill would not count as good reason).
I'm guessing Exe is the skullcrusher IC, SC is the nightrider IC (and his buddy), and the townie IC is among {Kise, Mute, ABR, Hrezs, Plum, Camn}. DSK is also among the same group. I'd also guess the DSK is one of {Mute, Plum, Camn}.
@Numbers-
With 11 alive it takes 7 to lynch and 5 to block. Assuming DSK kills at L-1 again, it's going to be 6 to lynch and 4 to block. I'm in favor of 4 strikes to block SC and the remaining 6 strikes to lynch Exe (which may fail if he is wearing the vest BUT it will definitely block the skullcrusher/IC kill & roleblock tonight).
However, with 1 strike on Magua, we only have 10 strikes available for actual candidates. It would be best if DSK kills BEFORE Exe gets to 6 strikes. Then we can safely roleblock SC and kill Exe.
@DSK-
As far why DSK should do this, if Exe/SC/??? are the ICs, then DSK shooting a townie today and a failed lynch on Exe means tonight there are 10 people with 3 ICs and 1 DSK. Skullcrusher-IC and Nightrider-IC WILL AIM for the DSK because it means they win. Killing the DSK means they enter tomorrow with 9 people, and one of them is unlynchable. With 9 players alive, it is impossible to lynch and roleblock, and ICs would control 3 of the 9 strikes anyway so if even 1 single townie disagrees with the rest of town, it becomes impossible to lynch and ICs win.
If you let us block SC AND lynch Exe, then you're at least guaranteed survival until tomorrow. So please make your shot BEFORE Exe gets to 6 strikes. Or even better, shoot Exe.ShowT: 9/6.5/0
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@Kise-
Wiki lists ICs as winning when they control a majority and that they need to avoid being killed. Not sure where you're reading that they win with town...it explicitly states that ICs do NOT win with their cover faction so I doubt town IC wins with town.
In the event that one or both scum IC is dead, the town IC has equal incentive to help town or scum. It likely comes down to whoever he likes more (unless RC changes the IC win con).
@Exe-
Wow are you a complete idiot? You and LLD were the last two SkullCrushers. It's obvious LLD was going to out you if you didn't out her first. Exe-IC with SC-IC buddy was the most likely scenario yesterday anyway; you just jumped the gun on her and admitted it before she did.ShowT: 9/6.5/0
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@Kise-
My understanding is that "ALL members alive" means all IC members alive. If any IC members are killed, then the IC team loses. It sounds like we agree on that.
What I disagree with is that the town-IC doesn't necessarily have any reason for helping town; he might help town, he might help surviving scum, he might help DSK. If he has already lost the game, then it shouldn't matter who he helps and the game could swing a lot depending what he chooses (which is why it's bad game design if the town IC is still running around after he already lost).ShowT: 9/6.5/0
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Kast tl;dr
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Khangaskhan doesn't read very well
The point under discussion isn't whether ICs have lost or not. The question was whether the line about all members being alive means town-IC can win with town (what Kise said) or whether it meant all IC's need to be alive. And more specifically, the suggestion was that since the town-IC can win with town, he should help out town.
As you've pointed out, the line was changed/removed; so the IC's won't lose when a member dies.
However, it still doesn't change the fact that town-IC cannot win with town. Town IC can only be a majority if he is the only player alive. The only possible ways for this would be if the town IC and two scum non-ICs were the only ones alive and they crosskilled.
If the town IC is the only one left, he has lost. He then has no incentive to work with town or scum. It would just be whatever he chooses to do.
@Magua-
Not sure why you're so anti-SC/Exe ICs. They've been buddying up til today when Exe out of the blue calls SC one of the remaining scum but strikes someone who is nigh confirmed town.
If they are both ICs, the missing kill is clearly due to one of our two docs stopping the kill or a security guard roleblocking one of them. Given Exe came out the door swinging for you, I'd strongly guess his kill on you failed so he's aiming for the confirmed town.
@ABR-
Quit whining about the DSK when YOU struck the confirmed mafia much earlier than you needed to.You're as bad as Toog.
And given what happened yesterday and every other day we tried to beat the DSK's kill, I don't see it as at all likely that we can stop the DSK.ShowT: 9/6.5/0
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Kast tl;dr
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Also, LLD/Exe yesterday said that LLD was trying to NK SC and Exe was against it in their mafia thread. Exe used that as a claim that LLD knew SC was the last nightrider, but it could easily be a slip that Exe knew SC was scum because they are IC buddies.
Also, regardless of whether IC's lose or not, if either one of LLD/Exe is an IC, then whichever was obviously wearing the vest yesterday. It is completely implausible that LLD as IC would not wear the vest when it's down to LLD and Exe as the only skullcrushers left (same for Exe yesterday and same today).ShowT: 9/6.5/0
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@Mute-
I know Magua raised that as a possibility; however he's making a ridiculous claim that since there is one possible explanation we should throw out all other possible explanations EVEN THOUGH the other possible explanations are more likely and fit better with the rest of the game/player behavior.
One death last night doesn't clear either SC or Exe of being IC. SC and Exe have been protecting each other; this makes zero sense for Exe scum. Exe claims that he thought LLD was an IC and was trying to kill SC for being the last Nightrider. Regardless of whether LLD was an IC, if Exe suspected that SC was the last Nightrider, then it doesn't make any sense that Exe-Skullcrusher would oppose LLD killing an enemy scum.
Also, if Exe is non-IC, it should be obvious to him that LLD was also non-IC since she would obviously have used the vest and not gotten lynched. Given that, then there is no explanation for Exe switching his read on SC from non-scum/non-IC to scum/IC.ShowT: 9/6.5/0
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@Kise-
The plan was outlined twice in thread already and it's been the primary topic of discussion. I'm reading you town and I've been reading you as a competent player. Why are you posting stuff like this?
@Camn-
WTH Camn? Do you pay any attention to the game? The plan is to strike SC to either stop the kills tonight or clear him as non-Nightrider. There was exactly enough strikes to roleblock a single player in addition to our lynch; if you preferred a different target, you could have stated so and made a case for that target. Magua is tied for the worst person you could pick. Kage is a flipped cop and pretty clearly crumbed that Magua and KK are both town. You're following Exe-scum in trying to block a practically confirmed town.
To be honest, I've been trying to figure out if you are the DSK or if the DSK is just trying to frame you by killing your targets immediately after you post them. If you're NOT the DSK, you're starting to look like the town-IC or some kind of scum.
@Scum-
In the event that you aren't IC buddies with Camn, please shoot her tonight. There's a good chance she's the DSK based on the DSK kills following her suggestions with the exact same timing as Camn's activity level.
@All-
To be clear, I'm against a Magua block for obvious reasons (@Hrezs-there is ABSOLUTELY a reason to not roleblock a confirmed town). Town should NOT strike Magua even if the DSK does not immediately kill.
We'll see if day ends with this and if it does we'll find out if Exe was IC or not.
Strike: ExeShowT: 9/6.5/0
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Also, just got back from my trip, and decided to check in. Not going to be around the rest of the weekend (if day ends this prolly won't matter).
Tomorrow, Camn needs to be looked at.
@Camn-
If you *ARE* DSK, then do yourself a favor and shoot SC; it's in your best interest as well as town's interest to remove all night kills. If you're concerned about numbers, scum are likely to kill you tonight if you don't remove their kill now.ShowT: 9/6.5/0
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Kast tl;dr
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MoI/BS said that their last member was one of the people BS "bussed" before she went after MoI. That only included 4 people, two of whom are already dead. If MoI was telling the truth, then the last NightRider is either Friend (Mute) or ABR.
If any Security Guards have a roleblock result from last night, now would be the time to share that (ESPECIALLY if it was Mute or ABR).
Also, since the strikes yesterday after my strike didn't count, we can be pretty sure that the DSK pre-submitted a kill OR was online between my strike and the next strike. Also, given that the DSK reacted to the info from BS, it looks like that kill doesn't need to be made immediately on day start.
I'm assuming DSK isn't going to help us kill the last NightRider, but in case I'm mistaken, then please shoot one of Mute/ABR.ShowT: 9/6.5/0
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Also, with 9 alive, it takes 6 to lynch or 4 to roleblock. After the DSK kill (which we can assume to be presubmitted), it will be 8 alive. With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch and 4 to roleblock.
I'd like everyone to explicitly state if they're willing to work together to lynch and roleblock ABR/Mute. If you're against it, then please explain why.
I'm sure DSK would prefer to keep the last NightRider around for extra kills, but if they do anything to achieve that aim, they reveal themselves.
Proposal
-We pick one of ABR/Mute for lynching and the other for roleblocking.
-Place 4 votes on the lynch target
-Place 3 votes on the block target
-Last 2 players coordinate to place the "block-hammer" and the "lynch-hammer" in succession.
If DSK decides to no kill, then great. Tonight we should see no kills and tomorrow we repeat today except that we know last nightrider is one of ABR/Mute.
If DSK kills someone before L-1, we have 2 players so town can still force the lynch
Magua and KK are pretty much confirmed town. I propose them as the 2 players to coordinate a hammer.
ABR already struke Mute and I'm assuming Mute would mutually strike ABR.
Assuming we go with this, then we should split up the remaining players between ABR and Mute.
@Kise- Who do you prefer out of ABR/Mute?
@Kast- I think Mute is probably the more likely NightRider, but ABR is potentially the DSK. I'm fine lynching either with slight preference for ABR lynch and Mute role-block.
@Plum- Who do you prefer out of ABR/Mute?
@StrangerCoug- Who do you prefer out of ABR/Mute?
@camn- Who do you prefer out of ABR/Mute?ShowT: 9/6.5/0
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@Mod-
Thanks. Could we also get prods on the people who haven't posted yet?
Given Mod's answer, ABR's claim could be legit (also could be Nightrider Roleblocker).
@SC-
Is there a reason you wanted to strike immediately instead of waiting to see if ABR's claim was a scum slip?
@Magua-
What are your thoughts regarding MoI's statement that BS bussed the 4th nightrider?ShowT: 9/6.5/0
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Or it could mean a security officer jailed ABR, OR it could mean a security officer jailed ABR-scum's kill target, OR it could mean one of the 2 docs protected ABR-scum's kill target. You're not making any sense.SC wrote:There is only one person left with a nightkill and for Mute's argument to work requires Albert B. Rampage to have either declined or run out of time to send in a kill last night.
That doesn't answer the question. When mod is going to provide an answer that could potentially confirm a player as scum, why would you refuse to wait for that mod answer? It makes no sense.SC wrote:My suspicion of Albert B. Rampage fell apart when he started gunning after Lady Lambdadelta and Mute's flip will likely say something about Albert B. Rampage.
And obviously Mute's flip will say something about ABR. ABR's flip will also say something about Mute. One of them is the last nightrider.
@KK/Magua-
It looks like 3 for Mute (ABR, SC, Kise) and 3 for ABR (Mute, Camn, Kast). Plum's on V/LA, what say you guys?ShowT: 9/6.5/0
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@SC-
I left out the possibility that scum may have failed by trying to kill the town IC with the bulletproof vest.
If the last Nightrider is non-IC, then last night the NR-scum was shooting at 8 targets against 2 definite docs, potentially 1 BP IC, and potentially 1 (or more) jailkeeper(s). Given we have two confirmed town, it's quite likely the Nightrider RB tried to kill one of them but failed due to some protection role.
@Kise-
I don't particularly care if I insult the DSK; it's better for the site as a whole if players up their game and play better.
And are you reading the whole game or just skimming random posts? I didn't ask for any additional strikes; the proposal is to come to a consensus THEN lynch one target and block the other. Regardless of whether Mute has claimed or not, we should come to a consensusBEFORE ANYmore strikes. Toog's gone and Camn's holding back from crazy striking. ABR has continued his reckless trend and SC has jumped aboard it, but fortunately it's on one of the two Nightrider candidates.ShowT: 9/6.5/0
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@Kise-
You still have not even acknowledged the lynch AND block proposal. Yesterday, near day end, you posted that you didn't even understand how such a proposal was even possible, despite the entire day being centered on discussion of the exact same proposal.Do you currently understand what is being proposed?Spoiler: Summary of how your posts readShowT: 9/6.5/0
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To be clear, Mute/ABR isn't a standoff, it's a decision between the two and we're just waiting on KK, Magua, and Plum to provide their thoughts.
The way I see it:
ABR/Mute
-MoI stated that the last NightRider is one of ABR,Mute,LLD,Toog. Since LLD and Toog are flipped, that leaves ABR and Mute. This combined with ABR's claim practically confirms that MoI was telling the truth.
ABR
-Reckless and anti-town behavior for the entire game
-Continued with an immediate strike today, DESPITE attacking Toog for the same thing yesterday
-Claimed a role that is not one of those listed in our semi-open setup
-Claimed a role that we KNOW is the same as the last nightrider
Mute
-Friend was anti-town, then Xalxe and Mute have been lurking/MIA
-IF ABR is town, then the roleblock implicates Mute as prob scum
@ABR-
Btw, why did you target SC and why did you target Mute? Also, who did you target before and why?ShowT: 9/6.5/0
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@Kise-
Do you understand that the TOWN can ROLEBLOCK someone AND LYNCH someone. For example:
4 people strike Mute
5 people strike ABR
DSK kills one person
Mute has 4/8 strikes = 50% = Mute is ROLEBLOCKED
ABR has 5/8 strikes = 62.5% = ABR is LYNCHED
If ABR flips NIGHTRIDER, then yay town.
If ABR flips TOWN and there is a NIGHT KILL, then we learn that Mute is NOT NIGHTRIDER.
If ABR flips TOWN and there is NO NIGHT KILL, then tomorrow we lynch Mute.
Do you understand?ShowT: 9/6.5/0
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@Camn-
I don't trust you as non-SK, so there's no way at all I'd leave you as one of the last two.
@Potential Order-
With Camn clarifying being okay with either lynch, and with KK leaning Mute, that puts Mute as the majority preferred lynch. We still need to hear ABR's full list of targets and reasons (sooner = better), but I'll outline a potential strike order using Mute as the lynch and ABR as the block.
-Mute already has 3 strikes from ABR, SC, and Kise.
-KK and Magua are essentially confirmed (blah blah potentially inv. immune DSK...but that's just not likely) so they should be the last 2.
Assuming Mute is against self striking (correct me if I'm wrong), then he should strike ABR.
I can strike ABR
Plum should strike ABR OR Mute
Camn can strike Mute or ABR (whichever one Plum does not strike)
This leaves Mute at 4 strikes and ABR at 3 strikes; this is effectivelyL-1.
KK and Magua should coordinate a time. At the time they decide, Magua should strike ABR with KK striking Mute immediately after.
If DSK kills anyone before the L-1 point, then the remaining players strike Mute (or ABR if Mute was killed). If DSK kills one of KK or Magua, then the survivor needs to strike Mute for the lynch. In the worst case, if DSK can kill someone between Magua and KK's strikes (or if DSK can submit complex conditional kill orders), then Mute and ABR would both be roleblocked. Seeing a night kill would clear BOTH of them. Seeing no night kill means we're down one player from the DSK, but doesn't significantly effect end game; we'd be in a repeat situation with 8 players alive, but we can guarantee a kill & block (today we can guarantee a block and hence the marginal risk).
It certainly beats the alternative (ie. if we're wrong about Mute and don't go with a Lynch & Block plan), then tonight scum gets a kill which makes the numbers the same.
@Pre-Edit-
ABR refusing to share then sharing 2 nights instead of 3 nights but refusing to give reasons is mind-boggling. Scummy-scum is a much better lynch than Lurky-scum. This town...ShowT: 9/6.5/0
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@Plum/Magua/KK-
If you guys decide on ABR instead of Mute, then:
-Mute already has 3 strikes, so Camn, Kast, Plum should strike ABR. At whatever time Magua/KK agree, Magua should strike Mute to roleblock and KK should immediately strike ABR to lynch.ShowT: 9/6.5/0
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@ABR-
No, but you and Kise are. BS also went after ABR, LLD, and Toog as MoI's buddies. It's old news that the last nightrider is either ABR or Mute; that's kinda the WHOLE REASON you two are the center of attention.ShowT: 9/6.5/0
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@ABR-
Actually, YOU AND MUTE were identified as the last Nightrider. When things started looking bad for you, you CLAIMED to be a roleblocker and to have roleblocked Mute. You then amended to have jailkeeped (probably since roleblocker is the SCUM role).
You now REFUSE to explain your roleblocks, even though (or maybe because?) they were not on your claimed top suspects.
You ALSO REFUSE to share what your remaining roleblock target was.
You ALSO REFUSE to let town roleblock potential scum to offset the danger of your assumption being wrong.ShowT: 9/6.5/0
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@ABR-
Just because you ignore posts from yesterday, does not mean they were never posted.ShowT: 9/6.5/0
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This doesn't even make sense. A strike on Mute makes him one of the only possible candidates for Lynch AND Block, but it in no way makes you one of the candidates.The reason we are at the center of attention is because I striked Mute in the opening post of the day
Also, how about playing the game and trying to make sense instead of just throwing around insults?ShowT: 9/6.5/0
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This really clinches it.
If ABR is really town who really believes Mute is scum, then there is ZERO reason to oppose a Mute Lynch/ABR Block. For that matter, there's no reason to opppose Mute Lynch/Anyone Block. In the event that town ABR is wrong about Mute, then there's good reason to SUPPORT the Lynch & Block plan.
Yesterday ABR might get away with bullshit like thinking block could stop a doc protect, but if he really thinks Mute is the last scum, then there are no kills to jail/doc tonight.
The only player with incentive to stop a block tonight is ABR-Nightrider (opposes ABR-Block) or ABR-DSK (opposes Anyone-Block).ShowT: 9/6.5/0
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@Camn-
I explicitly outlined all contingencies with how to react to them.
IF DSK kills someone who has not Striked someone, THEN remaining players Strike the consensus candidate for the Lynch. Block fails in this case. Equivalent to not doing the Lynch & Block plan.
The worst case would be if DSK kills KK AFTER Magua strikes. In that case, ABR & Mute both get roleblocked & there is no kill tonight. Tomorrow we repeat with one less player than today & guaranteed Block & Lynch. If Mute is scum, then we have 2 chances to lynch the SK. If Mute is not scum, then we have to lynch ABR the following day & get 1 chance to lynch the SK.
This is EQUIVALENT to the non Lynch & Block plan. If we flat out lynch Mute today & he is scum, then we have 2 chances to lynch the SK. If we are wrong & ABR is scum, then lynching Mute now means ABR kills someone tonight. We only get 1 chance to lynch the DSK.ShowT: 9/6.5/0
M: 8/2/1
O: 0/3.5/0
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@Mute-
Damn your spot is such a liability & you just threw away our only chance.
@ICs-
Thanks. You guys really fucked me & lol town's gonna be confused by bastard modding (or maybe not).
@Camn-
You're the probable DSK. Word of advice, next time kill the confirmed towns & don't be so obvious. If Camn's not DSK, well, guess you did a good framing job, but really you just bought one day. Your kills weren't going to take you to endgame.
Since it's psuedo Kingmaker, I'd strongly suggest town go with Camn/SC/Plum for potential DSKs.
@ABR-
You've been horrible town, it's a shame you'll win despite being as horrible & anti-town as possible.
@Kise/Magua/Plum-
Solid play. Good job guys. Really should have pushed more on the Friend lynch from earlier. He was scummy as hell.
@Kage-
You were obvious cop. If you want to be so obvious, might as well claim openly & get the doc protect next time.
@KK-
Was your initial game plan to just be scummy & draw the cop?
Mod I'mStriking Mute. I can't do bold/brackets, posting from a phone.
[ Noted; bolded. - RC ]Last edited by ReaperCharlie on Fri Apr 29, 2011 4:14 am, edited 1 time in total.ShowT: 9/6.5/0
M: 8/2/1
O: 0/3.5/0
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@Magua-
You're right. You *should* still roleblock just in case. But whatever, it won't matter. Town IC WAS Hrezs, believe it or not. We were on a roll as town and scum was fucked even without the ICs revealing the scum teams. Once the town VIs were gone (Thad/Toog), we were able to focus on the real scum.ShowT: 9/6.5/0
M: 8/2/1
O: 0/3.5/0
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@Camn-
BTW, I hope your silly attack wasn't serious. Magua & KK are your OBVIOUS kill targets. This is true regardless of when they strike. Making TRUSTED PLAYERS strike is a no brainer since leaving you last just means you'll kill the 2nd person & either no lynch OR stop the block on scum.ShowT: 9/6.5/0
M: 8/2/1
O: 0/3.5/0
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@Town-
Force Camn to claim doc or non-doc. If Camn claims non- doc, go with a mass claim. There should be no counter claims (if there is one it clears Camn).
If there's no counter claims, then your docs will be confirmed.
KK's prolly a Security Officer.
If you're lucky, SC & Plum are docs & it practically confirms Camn.ShowT: 9/6.5/0
M: 8/2/1
O: 0/3.5/0
V/LA Pretty much all Weekends and Holidays-
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@Camn/DSK-
Shoot for ABR. He's confirmed town and confirmed non-doc at this point. He's probably going to be useless at finding you, but town can just play the numbers game and doesn't need a brain. Shooting blind and hitting a doc is only going to limit your future PoE. It also removes the doubt that Plum's been trying to place on Magua/KK (which, btw, is why Plum is number 3 for potential DSK).ShowT: 9/6.5/0
M: 8/2/1
O: 0/3.5/0
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@All-
LoL, it will all make sense once the game ends. For now, you all can believe what you want. I am town, and my win con is exactly the same as it was when I got my role PM at the beginning of the game. I'm essentially post restricted from saying more (penalty not specified, possibly mod-kill, possibly RC will just stop liking me).
Camn should hang. Being non-doc is enough to clinch it (you are welcome to shoot me in retaliation).
Strike: CamnShowT: 9/6.5/0
M: 8/2/1
O: 0/3.5/0
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Also, with 7 people it takes 5 to lynch. If Camn kills someone it takes 4 to lynch.
We've got 2 chances to lynch her. I'm pretty sure the remaining town is smart enough to do it today.ShowT: 9/6.5/0
M: 8/2/1
O: 0/3.5/0
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