Cold War Mafia - GAME OVER!!

[Enigma]

Hi,

I'm just in the last week of term, a few crazy assignments left but I'll try read through in my own time.

Anyone care to point out the major events and what I should be watching out for .. else it's going to be a skim for most of the (ouch) 70+ pages.

[Enigma]

Just an update: Up to like page 15ish before I wanted to stab my eyes out.
Should probably start some notes because I think I've forgotten who said what.... even though I kinda remember what has happened.

Also, what's this thing about a EGL wagon???

[Enigma]

About half way throughish.

Should have a lot of free time once next week starts as it'll be our

holiday

non-teaching period...

[Enigma]

Day 1 was a shit fest, ouch. And I would like to thank Red and Feysal for a dismal number of painful walls.

Note: I'm not completely caught up, but have a points based on where I'm up to atm, (around page 50ish). I also read with a list of revealed players.
Not to mention I spent a good while trying to figure out who fuzzyman was...

Few things that stood out was the jumping of people of a definite D1 lynch a with just a few days to deadline to try and get off a town wagon or to get a no lynch, especially Feysal (and scum gondanno who was right behind).

I read the game with a slight bias to try and figure out the feysal lynch, and atm I have no qualms about voting him, but will refrain until i get through these last 30 pages.

I have a mini list with my scum thoughts, and could anyone please help me in understanding why these people haven't been up for lynching yet, to help me clarify my read in the next few pages.
This isn't my entire I think you are scummy list nor is it anyway near complete.
Smargaret, Stephoscope, Sathoris.

[Enigma]

Also, why is my slot alive and not up for lynch either? I thought EGL was scummy enough to warrant heaps more pressure .. until I realized that it's my slot :S

[Enigma]

Suppose this means that there are 2 scum teams? Hrmmmm...

Also, now that one of my reads is dead, how about we get to lynching the other two.

I have a mini list with my scum thoughts, and could anyone please help me in understanding why these people haven't been up for lynching yet, to help me clarify my read in the next few pages.
This isn't my entire I think you are scummy list nor is it anyway near complete.
Smargaret, Stephoscope, Sathoris.

PS: I kinda forgot everything I read .... bahh

[Enigma]

Any particular reason you're not voting right now?

I'm not ready to?
And read above?

[Enigma]

Cool I'll just blindly throw my vote out there yer without remembering what reasons I am voting them for.
That's either scummy or just plain foolish as town.

All I have is a sheet with marks next to each players names.

I would rather put my vote on somewhere I'm sure about than throw it about randomly. Thanks.

[Enigma]

I prefer being accused of not voting without reasons actually.

Can you clarify exactly what smarget is lying about btw?

Pedit: All I have is a list with post numbers in red and blue next to each player. Smarget is on of those with a large amount of red next to her name. I don't remember why I wrote the numbers down and alot of them were in reference to the progress of the game at that stage, and I cbf rereading millions of posts atm to refresh my memory about why I found them scummy. How about you do it for me?
256, 507, 739, 1058

[Enigma]

Lowell has 3
Thad has 3
Beast has 2
Furcolow has 2

I can't read what I wrote on bvoigt so imma ignore him.

The rest have a majority of red.

But keep in mind, I read this under the assumption of ONE scum team and was looking specifically at connections between the 2 flipped scum... hence I'm a bit bummed some of my reads might be fail.

Ohh and I also have this:
Not scum pairs (consisting of scummy players .. but they might be on separate teams though)
Scott/Rat
Scott/LMP
DP/jmj
LMP/DP

[Enigma]

And I wouldn't put too much faith in the scum pairs because I completely forgot why I wrote them (why did I replace into a 80 page game.. hurts my head).
I can't rule out if it was bussing, and I know for a fact DP loves to bus.

[Enigma]

Why in the world are you thinking there is only one scum team? I believe during day two we started discussing the probability being more than likely that there were two scum teams, which only became more likely as the days rolled on. You are clearly playing the role of scum playing the role of dumb townie not knowing the setup a little too obviously.

Let me see... since you are unable to apply your own logic, let me apply it for you.

Day 1 was 50 pages. Normal people start reading from day 1 without the knowledge of two scum teams (even if you are scum). Day 1 made up the bulk of my notes, and I actually read Day 1 more detail than the rest because reading 80 pages isn't fun. So when making my notes and looking at the player list with only one revealed scum, I only read in relation to the two flipped scum. A few days down the track it's still not obvious there are 2 scum teams.. could easily be a vig and a SK, especially with the lack of crosskills... Only this day do we confirm a second scum team.

And there mass minimal discussion on the probability of two scum teams during day 2 so don't bullshit me mate. I have the luxury of having recently read the game, it was bought up and it wasn't a massive discussion only a bit in the first few stages, nor was it in massive agreement.

So pardon me for not having telepathic knowledge and knowing there was 2 scum teams when I spent a several good hours trying to read up after replacing into a horrendously long game.

[Enigma]

So you are just posting for the sake of posting? What are you doing to "remember what reasons" or determine where to put your vote? You are fluff posting. The reason you aren't voting is one of two reasons: either you don't want to start a wagon on someone who might flip town or one of those two people is a scum buddy of yours. Which is it?

Or it could actually be the reason which i stated in your quote where I don't remember why I have marked them scummy seeing as I just read like the last 40 pages in a few hours and don't remember it off the top of my head, hence why it is written down on a piece of paper?

[Enigma]

I think they are there to maybe look for bussing? (or distancing)

Which obviously means bvoigt is the last Soviet Scum!
/sarcasm just in case people are too thick.

Tbh if all the Soviet scum are dead it's probably less useful with only one blue flip though. (but can I say again, DP loves to buss)

[Enigma]

True, but there was no actual need to dump all the raw data in the thread, except to show everyone that you had collated it.

So maybe other people can have a look at it and come to their own conclusions?
Meanwhile he spends a bit of time summing up his conclusions, so they can be compared when he presents his?

[Enigma]

Happy Easter!
Don't eat too much chocolate.

Enjoy visiting your in laws, I'll enjoy abusing my body with some booze ... after all this horrible work is done.

To think .. everyone enjoying a 4 day holiday ... and the poor people who work in hospitality ... who have to work for 4 days straight so all you slackers can enjoy your holidays.
Le sigh.

[Enigma]

Which means i forgot to say ..V/LA for this 5 day

weekend

work week.

[Enigma]

Ok I lied, I couldn't sleep too much coffee.
And now I actually read the last 30 pages again from end of D1, instead of a very quick skim.

Stuff I want to say:

DavidParker/PeregrineV
I've played with DP ALOT. I know his scum game, and every time it is bus bus bus. If you don't believe, have a look at all his games It's too obvious really.

Scott def scum, LMP probable-scum.

This caught my attention alot. But I looked at his ISO, his bussing is usually not subtle, so with a lack of it, it really leaves me wondering. I can also tell you this guy wasn't really into the game, and when he isn't, he just mindlessly bandwagons regardless of alignment, so it's null for him.

What else caught my attention you may ask me:

So, it's probably one American and one Soviet scumteam?

VOTE: gonnano

Ok, from here we see that he immediately comes to the conclusion of an American scum team? Why?? This is post 1192, early D2.
I also think his 1501 will be useful later, but I can't immediately arrive at any conclusion from that right yet.

Spoiler: Attached for you convenience

OK, I figured it was time to stop being lazy.

Town

Beasts of the Sea- I wish he would post more often, because they're good when he does.
Feysal- He provides good questioning and analysis.
DavidParker- He used the wording of his role PM to clear TheAd.
LynchMePls- See the reasons for Feysal.
ThAdmiral- See DP. Of course, I'd have to rethink if one of the two flipped scum.
Lowell- While he doesn't have a lot of content, he has made a few good posts, such as ISO #13.
XScorpion- His tunneling on Amrun doesn't look something scum would do.
Amrun- Between the claim and the reaction to my "hammer," I just don't think she's that likely to be scum anymore.
bvoigt- I know my play has been halfhearted lately, but I'm going to improve.
The Fonz- I like his catchup post so far.

Not Sure

InflatablePie
EGL
Artem- I was leaning town, but his replace-out post is weird.
Furcolow- Ugh.
Scott Brosius

Scum

smargaret- She goes after a lot of the easy candidates. For example, ISO #8 is a very nitpicky point, and ISO #13 basically just goes after a lurker because everyone else is. ISO #45 is also a nitpicky way to push what turned out to be a mislynch.
gonnano- Expect a good case in an upcoming post.
Stephoscope- It feels like he's skating by on the outskirts of the game, and not really doing much scumhunting of his own.
Nachomomma8- My head tells me that he actually appeared more pro-town in Outdoorsmen Mafia 2, where he (as Calcifer) was scum. But my gut says he's scum in this game, too.
Sathrois- Like Steph, he's been skating by, although his play has improved lately. I also don't like his Furc vote in ISO #24; while self-voting is not good play, it's not a scumtell.

The context of his jump in 1582 after the VP case onto Amrum also strikes me as scummy.

Guaranteed, huh?

UNVOTE: gonnano
VOTE: Amrun

I'm also juggling the possibility if that one of smarg or bvoigt flips scum, the other is possibly a partner from:

Guaranteed, huh?

UNVOTE: gonnano
VOTE: Amrun

/end wall .. more to come

[Enigma]

Now after deciphering my writing and realizing I meant bvoigt was scummy we look at the next person on the player list after him.

Also, before I forget I just want to say. First I want to say screw you all for calling me scummy for saying 2 scum teams.
I have a feeling that there may be a third party, looking at the night actions, I'm definitely feeling a 3rd party, I was going to head with vig, but the combinations just don't cut for me. A complementary odd/even night isn't working. And two shot vig is out of the question, and you don't find any 3+ shot above.
So in my little caffeine induced headache, I have decided that one (or even both) scum teams tried to shoot this SK who obviously needs some sort of bulletproof with so many night kills around, so they know who the SK is and probably are hinting to get them lynched.
Something worthwhile to consider a few days down the track.
Also, the first person to suggest SK doesn't fit in the flavor will get stabbed in the eye with my blue pen, and the second can get stabbed in the other eye with my red pen.

The Fonz.
Well all I have to say is this guy posts way too many wall posts, and even after I commit myself to another read, walls are ghey and I skimmed most his posts. So I shall sit him in the null read of my players.
He also needs to put player names in his quotes so I know who he is referring to.
That is all on him.

Now we get Sathoris.
I have three RED marks next to his name, 852, 1352, 1432.

Of the two wagon's I mistrust Amrun the most. ThAd seems to eager to avoid a lynch on himself, as would anybody, but it doesn't seem toodesperate. Amrun felt he had to claim to get not lynched and messed it up a bit. The claim appears manufactured to me, going from memory to contruct a role only to later remember the inaccuracies. I'd look at my role PM again before I'd fully claim.

VOTE:

Amrun

I hate this jump on Amrum. I find it scummy. Also for giggles look at Artems 856 a bit further down. It's funny starting a counter wagon on a buddy with 4 days on the deadline and 13 required to lynch.

His 1352 eluding to a single scum team (and so many damn town reads) honestly awe me.
Let's play some easter egg hunter found in this spoiler here.

Spoiler:

I'm disliking the 'whatever' by furculow, that's two times now. I was a bit worried he might be a jester during the first day. And now he just makes it so easy for us to lynch him. He's making powers up then lying about it and not caring. I've just got a nasty feeling he's playing right into our hands and it's more beneficial for him.

UNVOTE: Furculow

For now, don't want to wagon him too quickly.

-Are jesters common in these sort of games?-

I saw LMP answer this already, but since I've played with Sathoris more, I'll add my own opinion. In the games I've played with Sathoris he has usually been quite aggressive, and the last time I noted him being cautious he was a cult leader. Those games were much faster than this one so it makes sense that his play would be somewhat different, but I do see cause for suspicion.

If Sathoris was used to faster games, I would think he'd be more likely to play the opposite of how he is right now...as in, be

more

active and aggressive than the typical MS player.

I am usually a lot more belligerent, as I said in my first post here. And yes I am used to 'shorter' games. These games however move a lot faster than the ones I'm used to. Over time I'll probably adapt and join the fast paced action. Right now I'm still finding it a bit hard to mingle in. I don't know any of you people's meta games, or anything for that matter. That said I have been in this game for over a month so I'll post my list of who I think are most likely town and scum.

Town

Feysal
nachomma8
InflatablePie
Bvoigt
Amrun
Scott Brosius
Xscorpion
Artem
Beasts of the Sea
Gonanno
ThAdmiral
LynchMePls
EGL
Smargaret
Mothrax
Lowell
Stephoscope
DavidParker
Furculow

Scum

Why are you waiting for an explanation? I've clearly stated I have no intention of giving one.

Then why did you go through the trouble of semi vouching for ThAd's role if you're not going to explain it and your nameclaim has nothing to do with ThAd's?

Vote: Furcolow

He's been the obvious lynch since the beginning of today.

Yet you hardly provide any reasons.

Does anyone have any possibly-valid reasons why Furcolow's not busted?

Why don't you look into your own vote on furc and provide us reasons why he is busted.

Re 1432. I forgot what it was I wanted to say. Just read it for your own interest.

[Enigma]

I have now some more unlikely scum pairs which I shall share with you for curiosity's sake.
Scott/Smarg
Bvoight/Smarg

For the first one, I blame this:

So. Feysal's my neighbor and last night he posted once, saying that EGL was the right lynch for today, and I don't buy the explanation of how that changed, since I posted the case I made against EGL in the qt last night. He also posted a bunch of other stuff about how he's found crumbs from players still alive (which I won't reveal) and dead, and pushed me to talk about any investigative roles (ie, he was rolefishing). Much of what he's done in thread and in the qt is setup speculation and rolefishing. The town read went poof. Discuss.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Feysal

The problem here is that if he doesn't flip scum neighbor, you realize you are automatically the lynch for tomorrow? I've never seen a scum neighbor player in a game so I'm not sure what they flip.

For the second one:

UNVOTE: smargaret

Brandt does look pretty peaceful.

Well, I'm going to slap myself for saying there cound't be a scum team here, because it's quite null, but it obviously does make bviogt look worse. Keep in mind that this is right after he puts her near the lynch, (post 1685) then unvotes for the stupidest reason ever.

Smargret also has a few more red marks now next to her name, in total: 256, 507, 739, 1058, 1303, 1632.
But now I actually don't care about her as much and want to see bvoight and sathoris die first, preferably in that order.

Thankyou and good night and may you dreams be filled with lots of chocolate.

[Enigma]

PS: VOTE: bvoight

6 posts in a row. Go me!

[Enigma]

I have now some more

unlikely

scum pairs which I shall share with you for curiosity's sake.
Scott/Smarg
Bvoight/Smarg

Why not vote smarg then?

Those are players unlikely to be scum pairs from my perspective. Since Scott flipped scum, I'm less interested in smarg for now. Same goes for furoclow. That quote is the exact reason why I'm focused on someone else for now, assuming of course scum teams of 3. Perhaps writing stuff at 4am in the morning makes one lose a bit in translation.

Bvoight, I meant unlikely scum pairs.
Also, why would you assume an American mafia team, especially at the very start of Day 2.
You droned on about flavor somewhere. I did a brief period on Cold War, why would you think the US is a belligerent in the Cold War and a scum faction??? It was a war against communism.
We don't have an even night vig. Look at the kill's.
3 kills N1, N2, N4
1 kill N3.

[Enigma]

And Lowell brings up a superb point Thad.

[Enigma]

Derp it's not a sentence. You call 19 people town. Why? And why only calling two people for being scum?

Town

Feysal
nachomma8
InflatablePie
Bvoigt
Amrun
Scott Brosius
Xscorpion
Artem
Beasts of the Sea
Gonanno
ThAdmiral
LynchMePls
EGL
Smargaret
Mothrax
Lowell
Stephoscope
DavidParker
Furculow

Scum

Why are you waiting for an explanation? I've clearly stated I have no intention of giving one.

Then why did you go through the trouble of semi vouching for ThAd's role if you're not going to explain it and your nameclaim has nothing to do with ThAd's?

Vote: Furcolow

He's been the obvious lynch since the beginning of today.

Yet you hardly provide any reasons.

Does anyone have any possibly-valid reasons why Furcolow's not busted?

Why don't you look into your own vote on furc and provide us reasons why he is busted.

[Enigma]

Wait nvm.

I didn't read your thing properly. I thought it was your town list, then after your scum list.

So tell me, who do you want to lynch today. Because reading your past few days, you seem to not offer many opinions on who you suspect at all.

[Enigma]

So sir ...
How about maybe .... umm i dunno .. at least like decide if you still think smarg is scum based on what Scott posted, which I've quoted and/or offer more reasons as to why we should be on smarg.

Btw can someone give me a run down of Fonz. When reading 10 billion pages, and having the same person post 1000000000 words for something that can be said in a few sentences I kinda started skimming his stuff.
Do people think he is scummy or just a townie who loves to blind us all with walls.

[Enigma]

Then why are the three kills N1? If there is only an even night vig??

There were four reveals before you said there was American scum, and none of them were Soviet townies.
Their nationalities were US, US, British and Cuban.

Cuban I can understand, but I still fail to understand why you would think of American as a threat to peace.
Remember in this world, America is glorified as the protector of peace and common sense would dictate that America be the protagonist in this game.

When can we start getting move votes on this fella guys?

[Enigma]

Derp I forgot about the vig being able to kill night 1.

Don't you think the US would be the good guys?? After all the win-con says "threats to peace". Why would you think the US is a threat to peace, going by flavor they are trying to remove power from those who are a threat to peace.
Also looking at the front page, the scum wincon only says: "When soviets remain alive" like that.

I think you are just bullshitting now after you made a scum slip .. I mean an American scum team slip..

[Enigma]

I'm not sure, maybe Soviet and German? But definitely not American.

Why would you suggest two scum teams so early in Day 2? You didn't even stop to consider that the kills could be from the vig and then a SK and one scum team, yet you immediately jumped to the conclusion of an American scum team, which only now is there evidence to suggest so.

[Enigma]

This is at the beginning of Day 2. With 4 flips none of which have questionable flavor.

Not 4 days down the track with much more night kills information, and name reveals publicly known.

Nice defense of your scum buddy.

[Enigma]

You didn't answer the question through posting or through voting.
Your vote is still on smargret. If you think my points are good, then why is your vote still there?

Decide who you want to vote, and explain why.

[Enigma]

I have nothing I wish to say.

Regardless of what I say about Fonz, he is right about one thing. People need to start putting effort into this game.

If it takes a nationality claim to get shit moving, or whatever it takes to make shit happen so be it.

[Enigma]

Don't think smarget is scum.
Bvoight is though.

Name/Nationality claim: Lyndon B. Johnson, US *removed*
kgo

[Enigma]

Because this game needs to get moving, and if it is a half claim that is needed that idc.
You can take a guess from the claim as to roles or what ever, but it's still going to be a wild guess. I wanna see you try, and I'll giggle in the corner while you do.

Can we get along with the game and decide who to kill now?
Bvoigt or Sathoris is fine to be lynched today.

Do I need to popcorn.
I'll popcorn to Sathoris. KGO

[Enigma]

The other names that kept popping up were EGL, bvoigt and davidparker. In particular The 2nd and 4th wagons that I highlighted above put EGL in an especially bad light given that he is the only unknown on them up to 4 and 7 (!) votes.

Next lynch must come from one of these three imo. With a huge priority on Smarg or EGL.

Because there can't be wagons that are purely town? Surely that logic is faultless?

what do people think about sathoris, peregrinev, and lowell?
wouldnt be surprised to see scum in the unvoting ranks

Regarding the Penegriv/DP slot being scum .... well DP was one player I spent a terrible amount of time reading and double reading. I've played with him alot, and if you spend any time checking his scum meta, it's just so predictable. I don't think he's scum here. Bad luck fellas.

Re: Bots,
Me not acknowledging your walls can mean a few things, here's a few take your pick, whatever tickles your fancy.
You're skewing the facts with a biased opinion. Your case has no merit. I don't deny your accusation. I don't feel like replying.
Just to list a few.

And I find it comical that you can deduce that I am scum based off a name claim. Surely if you were that good (and if you were town), scum wouldn't stand a chance against your amazing telepathic skills.

And PS: Can we get this nationality/name claim going. It's no fun by myself. Screw the popcorn someone else just take some initiative.

[Enigma]

Sorry still away at my in-laws, will catch up. In the meantime nationality claim is a good idea, name claim probably not as folks have said.

I'm soviet. If fonz hasn't claimed, I'd like him next.

Whats wrong with name claiming?

[Enigma]

Enigma, why are you trying to shut down the one bit of actual scumhunting going on today? While raw data without interpretation is meaningless and distracting, it is very unlikely that there's no scum on all of those wagons, and I actually agree with ThAd that we ought to be lynching out of that pool - even if it means you lynch me today.

Because looking at one wagon out of 90 pages is not scum hunting.

That and I think it's purely a town wagon.

[Enigma]

Because Bvoigt is scum.

And if the entire case on me rests on how my predecessor voted ... surely you jest right? Maybe we should lynch you.

[Enigma]

First, helpful gift to those less fortunate.
*Sarcasm Hat*

Wear it when you read my posts, might help.

First I want to congratulate everyone for not realizing I'm the only one who claimed American (so far)!

Could you enlighten us as to how it's predictable? Be specific, please.

Spend a bit of time reading his games. EVERY SINGLE TIME HE IS SCUM HE BUSSES. EVERY. SINGLE. TIME.
SO PREDICTABLE THAT EVEN A BLIND MONKEY WOULD NOTICE.

How about instead of making everyone guess, you just tell us what your motivation to not read the game could be?

Use the gift I so kindly gave you.

The "entire case on you" hardly rests on your predecessors play. Or weren't you reading?

Or were you not reading? Or at least not in context. They are pushing scum solely because of voting patterns. Because my predecessor is one of the few unconfirmed on a town wagon ... which surely must always be pushed by scum no?
The fact that people are claiming this as gospel suggests that this is a deliberate scum play. Secondly, this is taking into assumption that Thad is confirmed town. WHOOPS!

Now with the mass claim.
WIFOM all you want, it's fun!
Claiming American as American scum .. why not just claim Soviet. After all .. it's a fake claim ... how is everyone going to validate it??? With a name claim?
+ one scum point to those insisting not to name claim, you have opened up the avenue for unrestricted fake claims from American Scum.

Blend in the majority and stray away from the spotlight. Personally, I find the non-soviet claims a bit more credible.

The plain soviet claims, alot less ... especially the early claimers who could well be American scum but not be aware of the wider range of nationalities in the game.
Lowell and bvoigt spring to mind don't they.

[Enigma]

I was holding back with that as long as I could but I just caved to the temptation.
Plus deadline in a week and the vote count is enough to sink the world into a global depression.

[Enigma]

(Ensure sarcasm hat is off here).

Did Penegrinev claim soviet? I can't see it. Maybe I'm blind.

I still don't like bvoigt and sathoris, adding to how they have also been voting each other as of late.

I don't mind your nationality claim. Kinda sums up what I was saying/thinking but much more detail. What I had in my mind was the claim order.
Me: American
Sath: Albanian
Bvoigt: Soviet
Lowell: Soviet
Furc: Soviet
Fonz: Polish

---
Smarg was West German I think?
---

Keep in mind, that American scum would be less gutsy to do a claim such as Albanian or Polish ... I wouldn't have thought of Albania .... kinda like the surprise Vietnam flip.

Which is why still imo bvoigt is the best lynch for today.
Sath I'll chill back a bit, but don't mind him or Pere if someone needs to die today.

[Enigma]

I just went thru the last few pages and picked them out in order. Still missing a few claims though.

Also it slipped my mind the Pere was the DP replacement slot. The Soviet Townie claim at that time makes him even less likely to be American scum.
Votes elsewhere please! (Hint: Bvoigt)

Also, Fonz are you thinking there is still one more Soviet scum left?

[Enigma]

My case on smarg is mainly going to be based on vote counts for now.
I have selected a few from sotty's official vote counts, although there are probably other situations I am missing out on that happened between vote counts. Alas.

I will more or less be looking at any large-ish wagon that had smarg on it. A major part of my theory is that when a wagon gets to around 4-5 there is bound to be at least one scum on it, especially in a game of this size and with multiple scum teams.
Anyway, to the analysis:

jmj3000 - 5 -

DavidParker,

LynchMePls

,

Ghostwriter

, smargaret,

LlamaFluff

This is not 100% damning as we don't know the alignment of DP, but if DP turns out to be town (and I do lean towards DP/peregrine being town) this will look a whole lot worse for smarg.

ThAdmiral - 8 -

Nachomamma8

, EGL,

LynchMePls

,

LlamaFluff

, smargaret,

GhostWriter

,

Amrun

,

Feysal

Once again, we don't know EGL's alignment so this isn't completely dammning. But come on! One of them basically has to be scum.

Amrun

- 10 -

XScorpion

, Beasts of the Sea,

Stephoscope

, bvoigt,

RedCoyote

, ThAdmiral, smargaret, mothrax, DavidParker,

Scott Brosius

This has a bunch of unknowns on it, but is a good example of a normal wagon. Note the amount of confirmed scum on it. Once again: this is a good example of a normal wagon, because like a normal wagon there is scum on it.

ThAdmiral - 9 -

Nachomamma8

, EGL,

LynchMePls

,

LlamaFluff

,

GhostWriter

,

Amrun

,

Feysal

, bvoigt, smargaret

Once again EGL and bvoigt don't make this cut and dried, but common-sense and logic suggest that on a wagon of similar size to the one on amrun above there

has

to be scum on this.

You pick out a handful of wagons in a 100 pg large theme game which has dozens of them.
Then apply with 100% confidence a hypothesis that

every

wagon must have scum. Anyone who has done basic statistics can tell you that your logic is flawed.

And smarg claimed east German. She must be lying then yer?

Re setup:

Nearly

(Note not every) all 12p games have 3 scum teams. 2*3 scum teams is balanced for a 24p setup. I bid you all good luck in outguessing the mod. And as a result now, the optimal play for one Soviet scum left is to not Night Kill just to add to your confusion.

[Enigma]

Lol well it looks like I'm about to be lynched.

Let me tell you I'm going to flip US Townie, and that my lynch is likely driven by one, if not both of the US scum. So get them tomorrow.

The fact stands, the US scum are claiming Soviet. If I was US scum I would be claiming Soviet, considering I claimed first and pushed the claim to occur, you would need to be mentally deficient as scum not to. If I was US scum, I assure you I would not be encouraging nationality claim, nor would I have taken the initiative to claim first. I would have nicely let the game rot and stagnate with the pathetic discussion the rest of you are achieving.

One extra person who has lately jumped up my scumdar is Thad.

His insistence for a voting bloc, totally unnecessary. Town isn't stupid enough to let a No Lynch pass, he is just trying to appear pro town while trying to dictate how votes move around.
His reluctance to make a case for the majority of the game, claiming just being lazy, and just mindlessly chucking his vote on players with only a few petty excuses as to why when questioned.
His case to vote me, after he realized that he could not longer skate along on votes. Out of a nearly 100 page games he pulls out a handful of vote counts to present his reasons as most incriminating. Considering 24 players and the assumption of only 6 scum, I will tell you again, it is entirely possible that a wagon on him (which he refers to as him being town, when for all we know he is scum) consists of only townies.

So add Thad to the likely scum of Bvoigt and Sathoris.

So if I'm going to be lynched today I don't care. I'm just sorry I came into this game and put in effort when no one is prepared to.

[Enigma]

Compared to the 9 other people alive, and considering I had to read 70 pages I feel I put in more effort than them.

It's curious though, are other people who are not putting in much effort and only posting to prod avoid not scummy for you?

[Enigma]

Fonz what do you think about Thad.
The reasons which i just said, and Lowell conveniently rephrased to make it look like he is scum hunting as well. Nice try the Lowell.

@Lowell,
Thad was neutral for most the game for me, he only really caught my attention was his thing about the voting bloc yesterday, (this is with me at L-2, makes you think is it really necessary??) that caused me to go and review his play. And on reviewing it, I noted things I found scummy about it.

[Enigma]

This kind of thing always seems to result in the player, scum or town, finding what he was looking for. Generally, if you go back and laser in on one particular slot, with the mindset of 'Let's see if I can find anything scummy here' you will, because you wouldn't do the iso unless, subconsciously, you wanted to find that player scummy.

Isn't this how mafia is supposed to be played? My brain isn't a super computer sorry, and not everyone likes to mindlessly bandwagon what other people say you know.

[Enigma]

The point is, enigma, I don't think I've ever seen someone go "I was getting scummy vibes off him/he was sliding under my radar, so I went back and looked over him in detail, but I realised there wasn't actually anything scummy about him and I was just being paranoid."

I do that all the time... I just don't tell anyone when I do that

[Enigma]

There is a wagon on Me, Smarg and Penigriev.
And I don't want to particularly see any of those lynched .. well because I've clearly said who I think is scum and why the above aren't.

Sigh.... If need be, I'm willing to move my vote to contribute to a lynch ... preferably smarget though.

[Enigma]

Unvote, Vote: smargaret

[Enigma]

Just like PV's vote tables. Data but no analysis. Your conclusion of these wagons is?

Worse than PV's vote tables. Trying to encourage everyone to view these votes under the assumption that Thad himself is town.

And Thad why exactly do these make everyone who isn't dead on the wagon look bad? You can pick out any random vote counts, are any of the alive players on that vote count scum?

If people want to massclaim .. well I don't think it'll be particularly helpful but I don't strongly object.

My suspicions from the following day remain unchanged.

[Enigma]

You do know the D1 wagon on you, the EGL vote was parked on you for several weeks whilst other people had wagons up. EGL didn't contribute to the wagon at all, he was already voting you before the wagon started. And plus there was a decent case on you, it wasn't some riffraff rubbish wagon that happened because the deadline was approaching and town needed someone to lynch.

Out of interest, a few posts that caught my mind trying to get these VC's in context.

Beasts is town. He's right about the wagon-whining going on here. DP is scum; the subtle defense of PI is bizarre.

It's good to finally see a real case on Thad. That's what I've been looking for since people started voting him. I have to say, there's quite a bit there even when I leave out the pieces that rely on me being scum -- and even those I could see having merit from the perspective of someone who doesn't know my role PM.

So far, I could see myself potentially voting PI, Jmj, or Thad (in order of preference) if the deadline was getting close.

Since it isn't, though, I want to try again to get everyone to take a look at Lowell. Every part of his play is about flying under the radar. He's done some minimal analysis of GW, but other than that his posts have seemed to be mostly placeholders to maintain a pretense of involvement. If you read what he's written, though, it's obvious that he isn't engaged in this game at all.

As an example of the play that I'm describing, just look at his response to my vote. He answers in such a way that no new information is brought to light, no new points are raised, and none of my original points are really even answered, yet somehow the discussion has been closed. He even pushes some accusation of OMGUS voting my way. All of this is very effective scum play, geared towards isolating himself from the discussion while still appearing to be an active player. By ignoring the majority of the arguments that are happening, he limits both the information that is presented to the town and the chance that he will be accused of something.

I don't know if this is all in my head or what, but I really can't see why no one else is finding this guy even mildly suspicious.

[Enigma]

Your VC analysis is flawed, they are taken out of context and thus do not accurately reflect the situation of which they developed.
Anyone agreeing without making an effort to research the basis of the vote counts are probably scum just looking for an easy mislynch.

[Enigma]

Scum connections, and likely something that people would have missed which I only just happened to notice when I went back to look at VC's, so I just wanted to put it here for reference.
Surely you can come to your own conclusions.

If you don't find it relevant then ignore it, not need to chuck a hissy fit about it.

[Enigma]

If the vig claims he's gunna get NKed tonight.
But he still gets his shot off, and it is unlikely he will live another 2 days to get another shot off.

Plus scum won't claim vig.... it's just telling the real vig to shoot them. Derp.

I think the vig should claim. Thus we can make full advantage of a lynch today, plus a night kill option possibly.

[Enigma]

The vig should really make the decision himself.

He needs to weigh up the likelihood of him being lynched today against how likely he is to be night killed, then decide which benefits town the most.

[Enigma]

And because I know you are going to ask me to explain it

AGAIN

egl/enigma looks bad in the first one because it is highly unlikely that a wagon would have got to 9 without a single scum being on it, and lowell looks bad in the second one because it is very unlikely that a wagon would have got to 7 without a single scum being on it.

No, I'm just wondering if you are stupid or something.
Not only have you not even made an effort to investigate the basis of the vote counts, you haven't even looked at the analysis I returned from doing all the hard work for you.
I'll say it again briefly. EGL had that vote parked on you at the very beginning, well before the wagon started. You acted scummy, you got votes on you, a strong case was made on you, simple as that. This was not some wagon that scum would have to force, your scumminess pretty much forced it.

Evidence without understanding and context is merit-less. You just simply read the mod in ISO and picked out a few random vote counts and presented them in the most incriminating way possible with due consideration of the situation.

Also, since it might be hard to get through your head, can I just seek clarification on this? Have you actually realized that I replaced into this game several days ago and EGL has not been playing this game for several months? Honestly? Can you care to elaborate how MY play is scummy, and actually put the effort into to read and analyze MY posts, and not try and base an entire case on one vote count from the beginning of day 1?

Because your reluctantness to do so, screams of scum trying to push for an easy town wagon. And it's not because you're lazy, it's because you don't want to, you've been yakking on about your stupid vote counts for ages, and have had plenty of opportunity and time to have a look at MY play in detail, and to review what I had to research for you above.

Also, Enigma, seeing as how you are American with ThAd, and ThAd is pegged as town mutliple times, it leaves you as one of the last US scum. Can you please explain how you are not?

LOL? I actually am quite amused about you asking this question but I'll humor you I suppose.
First, I'm not pegging Thad as town, and this is independent of the nationality claims.
Second, US scum are lying and claiming Soviet.

Can I ask you a question now? Out of pity I suppose? A few actually.
Can you clarify the case on me? What have I (Read ME not EGL who was replaced over a month ago) done that suggests I have a scum agenda?
Is the entire case on me based on

vote count analysis

ONE vote count from the beginning of Day 1, taken out of context, and the fact that I truthfully claimed my nationality?
Why would I volunteer to claim my nationality first, then claim truthfully when if US scum it would have been SOOOOO much more beneficial to let the day stagnate and see if everyone else could be arsed doing something about claims, and wait for a popcorn to me and compare the situation then, then likely lie?

[Enigma]

Scum List: Lowell, Sathoris, Thad.

[Enigma]

Why?
And. Why. Is. Thad. Voting. Sathoris?

[Enigma]

Town

wagons on day one basically never get to eight votes without any scum.

1. This likely isn't a town wagon.
2. Are you going realize that unlikely isn't the same as never?
3. Have you reviewed the context where THIS particular wagon in question formed?
4. Will you quit life when you realize you are wrong? Please?

[Enigma]

If you have an argument about why, given the context, this wagon was particularly likely to be all town, then FOR THE LOVE OF GOD, supply me with it. If you're not going to do that, then I'm going to conclude you're simply mudslinging here.

Are you unable to read or are you just choosing to act illiterate?

I'll say it again briefly. EGL had that vote parked on you at the very beginning, well before the wagon started. You acted scummy, you got votes on you, a strong case was made on you, simple as that. This was not some wagon that scum would have to force, your scumminess pretty much forced it.

Also, please don't try acting brains and try and use statistics when it is so laughably wrong. This is not an ordered sequence.
The actual answer is 0.0724 i.e. 7.24%. Which I wouldn't mind betting on actually.

[Enigma]

Disclaimer: I'm pretty sure that is the right answer, but hey I'm not a maths major. But Fonz's method is wrong though

[Enigma]

Nvm, I just recalled high school and pulling black jellybeans out of a jar in maths class without replacement. We are both wrong.
1.74%

[Enigma]

I'm pretty sure 1.74% is right, and it matches up with the above, but all this really is pointless because voting isn't random.
Unless this is a feat of pride, something which really doesn't bother me anyways.

However 0.0174 is unlikely, but in no means impossible.
Quick analogy, my final design project was due for presentation at 9am today. 60 groups presenting, and whilst the project was done, I just needed a bit of preparation with my teammates before the presentation.
Stupidly, I slept in and got there at like 8:50am. Go to the class to see this randomly generated list of who is presenting in what order. Chances of going first are 0.01667 anyways .. low right?

And god forbid .... the first group randomly selected on the list was Group 16. I scratch my head a bit .. then I realize ......... I'm in group 16. WTF!
Most stressful 10 minutes of my life.

[Enigma]

VOTE: Sathoris

[Enigma]

3 scum left, cross off the people who I have town reads on and the neutral reads become scum reads to fill the remaining spot.

I would hope it's pretty obvious why my vote is on Sathoris ... there is no point starting a counter wagon on any other players, and any other vote essentially guarantees I get lynched so yer..

[Enigma]

I don't think Pere is scum .. and I think he likely was joking about the writer thing.......

Tbh just waiting on Pere to decide, I've said all I need to say .. if you have any more questions for me now just ask.

[Enigma]

First, why hasn't PV decided ...

I've decided I want to switch wagons. Enigma, what do you have to say before I hammer?

Err what would you like me to say?
Everything I've said has been truthful and sincere this game.

My scum reads,
Lowell, Thad, Sath still stand.

If you are lynching me based on nationality, well then it's quite unfortunate isn't it.
Scum have the luxury of being able to lie about their nationality, and town wouldn't be any wiser from it.

Also, you can try risk out guessing the mod and setup, but if you are basing your lynch candidates primarily on that you're doing it wrong.
You should be lynching who you find scummy, not because you are trying to outguess the mod.
My scum reads are (mostly) independent of nationality claims.

[Enigma]

Pro tip: Next time lynch the player who basically contributed nothing for four days sometime during day 1, 2, 3 or 4 instead of fucking around with it during endgame and making everything the replacee said for like several weeks a complete waste of his time because noone cares about his contribution.

Cheers.

[Enigma]

[Enigma]

First!

P EDIT: DAMIT!