Succession Mafia II: OVER!

[Yosarian2]

Confirm

[Yosarian2]

We didn't have an N0. But I supposed the recruiters could have had a pre-game pick.

We had a pre-game/N0 pick in the first game.

Before the thread opened, or during the confirmation phase?

[Yosarian2]

I'd assume with two lynch immune stumps they get some sort of recruit...Otherwise we would be doing absolutely nothing day one.

Well, with the "white flag" rule Flay linked to, if the stump is the only member of his group, the group loses, so I think there has to be at least one extra member of each cult during day 1.

[Yosarian2]

Who do you think Kinetic and I recruited, Yosarian?

Looking at the white flag rules, if you recruit someone and they get lynched day 1, your team just loses on the spot, right?

So your priority would be to get someone who's not going to be lynched day 1. Day 1 is your riskiest day, and the town's best chance, so if you're smart, you'd play it safe. Not a VI, not someone who has an uber-controversial playstyle, not someone who's too high profile either. Day 1, I'd expect you guys to go for someone who's reasonably skilled but who can fly under the radar without really being noticed, one of the good but quiet players that never really get run up on day 1.

[Yosarian2]

ABR: that question is one giant kettle of hot, steaming WIFOM.

Heh. Get used to it, I have a feeling this game is going to be wall to wall WIFOM from start to finish.

Also, I have reason to believe you and Kinetic haven't recruited yet.

Really? Huh. If that's true, then we should all stop speculating until day 1 is started recruited, or we might just make it easier for them.

[Yosarian2]

Very good. Who in this player list would correspond to that archetype, in your opinion?

Also, I have reason to believe you and Kinetic haven't recruited yet.

Really? Huh. If that's true, then we should all stop speculating until day 1 is started, or we might just make it easier for them.

[Yosarian2]

Chrono, could you explain why these recruiters would NOT want to pick a very good player. It seems like an optimal choice.

Simple: Every knows that those particular players are a powerful force for either alignment, either cult, to acquire and maintain. Yos can attest to this personally, as much the same happened in Succession I, with him gaining a large amount of suspicion purely for being so good that he was a forgone choice for a recruit. Thus they are not good choices to recruit, specifically because they're good, which means

[wifom]

We as town know they're good choices to recruit, because they're good, so they're likely recruits (As opposed to say... Katsuki, bunny, or myself, who tend to be erratic at best), which in turn means that town needs them to die, in order to kill the cult, which in turn makes them bad choices to recruit specifically because they'd be good choices, thus good lynches for town to make, thus bad recruitment choices.

[/wifom]

(also cyclic argument is cyclic)

tl;dr: They're good, we know it, we're likely to lynch them, because they'd be a good recruit, which is why they aren't recruited, because they'd be lynched, which would be disadvantageous to the cults.

Yeah, the most high-profile players wouldn't really make a good day 1 recruit. If someone like DGB or Fritzler or Porochaz (or me, hah) starts acting really weird day 3 or so, watch out; cults might bring in the "heavy hitters" later to try to dominate the day game, but day 1 for the cults is probably going to be all about just getting through the day without people paying attention to their recruits at all.

[Yosarian2]

I will claim now.

I'm a whore.

If I'm recruited by mobster A, mobster A will fail, and I will instead by added to mobster B's group.

I have untreated STDs, herpes, HIV, chlamydia, crabs, body lice, and the brothel's bed bug population is kept in check by snakes and gila monsters.

Great claim for someone already recruited.

Or for a townie who doesn't want to get recruited. Or for a dripping goofball who likes saying wacky things.

Anyway, I agree with DGB about xvart. When I was thinking about skilled players who are not high profile, who can still blend in and be relatively unnoticed, the two that came to my mind offhand were xvart and Battousai. So, that seems like a good place to start.

Vote:xvart

[Yosarian2]

Also, it occurs to me that it would be pretty funny if someone recruited flameaxe day 1 on the assumption that he would flake and be replaced out like he always does, and that that would eat up enough time to prevent him from being lynched day 1.

[Yosarian2]

I didn't flake Succession 1, didn't flake either of Prozac's minis, didn't flake oman's mini, requested replacement in oldy only to retract that request 20 minutes too late. Your logic is three years too old, Yos.

Good, good, glad to hear it. You're fun to play with when you stick around.

Anyway, I like the way you responded to the personal comment more then to the implication that you're scum. That gives me a good vibe about you in this situation.

[Yosarian2]

Yos's vote on xvart doesn't seem yosish. DGB's vote is DGB, self defined as arbitrary amongst a short list of recruits. Yos who I view as a logical player and takes the bull by the horns approach sheeping that, doesn't stick

Prozac: Sheeping? Really?

Xvert was exactly who I was thinking of in my post on page 2, long before DGB attacked him. He's one of the most logical day 1 recruitment choices; have you ever seen Xvert get lynched on day 1 of a game? I don't believe I have, at least not as far as I can remember. My vote on him really has nothing to do with DGB's vote.

That being said, DGB is looking pretty town so far this game, so sheeping her doesn't sound like a bad idea anyway.

[Yosarian2]

I know the role I have. I was halfway sure that all teamsters might've had it too. To explain in short: I'm unrecruitable. The scum will have to lynch or kill me. That's the difference that made me not want to lynch you.

Why would you claim uncrecrutable when you're nowhere near a lynch? If you were really unrecruitable, your goal should have been to act really town and try to "soak up" some recruitment attempts, not to claim.

On the other hand, an unrecruitable fakeclaim makes a lot of sense for a recruit to make. You wouldn't have to worry about the other side trying to recruit you and finding out your alignment that way, for one thing.

From a setup point of view, the existence of some kind of unrecruitables is probable. If the scum don't sometimes fail to recruit, the town couldn't possibly win. It's worth mentioning, though, that in Flay's last cult game, there weren't any "plain" unrecruitables; the real unrecrutables were roles like "unrecrutable 1 shot vig" or "unrecrutable recruit-preventing-doctor" or such.

[Yosarian2]

Well on page 2 your only post was confirm and I started on page 5. However as thats arbitrary I went and looked, nowhere do you mention xvart before page 5.

Sorry, not page 2, page 3.

When i said this on page 3:

Not a VI, not someone who has an uber-controversial playstyle, not someone who's too high profile either. Day 1, I'd expect you guys to go for someone who's reasonably skilled but who can fly under the radar without really being noticed, one of the good but quiet players that never really get run up on day 1.

The two people I was thinking of were Xvert and Battousai, I just didn't really want to start naming specific suspects until the day started.

[Yosarian2]

I thought we weren't mentioning town reads?

meh. Not sure how much good that does. They're going to recruit someone, after all, and we all know that town reads have a very short expiration date in this game no matter what.

I really, really want to find a scum today. I know that Mr. Flay does his best to make his games balanced, but IMHO, despite his best efforts, all the cult games of his I've been in have all been balanced against the town pretty significantly; it's just hard to create a cult game that isn't balanced against the town. We're probably going to need a lucky break here to have a decent shot. If sharing town reads improves our odds of finding and lynch a scum today, and thus wiping out a whole scum group, then it's worth the risk.

[Yosarian2]

In this case, on day 1, when all you care about is getting your one cult memeber to survive the day? Someone who's good at staying alive and staying under the radar. Someone who plays a solid, logical game without taking big risks or having to always lead the town.

I don't know everyone in the game, but the names that come to mind are xvart, Battousai, possibly ooba, possibly Herodotus. Don't know what your or Kintetic's experence of those players are, though.

[Yosarian2]

In this case, on day 1, when all you care about is getting your one cult memeber to survive the day? Someone who's good at staying alive and staying under the radar. Someone who plays a solid, logical game without taking big risks or having to always lead the town.

I don't know everyone in the game, but the names that come to mind are xvart, Battousai, possibly ooba, possibly Herodotus. Don't know what your or Kintetic's experence of those players are, though.

STOP TALKING TO THE SCUM, YOS! It's a trap!

It's ok. I think that Albert's natural inability to remain quiet for any length of time is going to work to our advantage here.

Plus, hell, maybe he can help us scumhunt for Kintetic's recruit.

Albert, who do you think Kinetic would recruit night zero?

Kinetic, who do you think Albert would recruit night zero?

[Yosarian2]

Didn't we discuss this already? Why are you wasting time?

No, we actually haven't heard from Albert who he thinks Kinetic would have picked night zero, or vice versa. There was that fun little WIFOM thing they did with each other ,but that was them "claiming" their own targets.

Anyway, we do have limited time, but it's not like we have limited posts; it dosn't cost the town anything for me to ask questions. Why are you opposed to me asking the scum some questions?

[Yosarian2]

Vote: Yosarian2

Vote is in a bad place. And his reasoning for it is bad on two fronts. One, if xvart is being run up to a lynch today, isn't that exactly the sort of player they would avoid?

That is such a bad argument.

I have never seen Xvart be lynched day 1 in any other game. Part of the reason he's being voted is that he's never lynched day 1.

Are you saying that whoever we decide to vote today, we should unvote them because we're voting them?

Sheeping vote with DGB is bad.

What are you talking about? In order to get a game moving, in order to start getting information and such, you have to join bandwagons. This happened to be one that I agreed with the logic behind, so I joined it. If joining wagons is always "sheeping", then that makes "sheeping" a very pro-town action, since town obviously can't win without doing that.

Also, reading all pages in this thread is critical, your questions have already been asked and answered.

Why is everyone so determined to protect the cult recruiters from answering questions here?

Also, Is it even possible to beat the cult? If we wipe out one cult somehow today, the other will always be recruiting even as we lynch their members, always staying one member ahead of an ability we have to stop them.

I'm sure it's possible, probably due to some town power roles and/or some kind of restriction on the cult's ability to recruit. We shouldn't speculate about this any farther since we do not want to out any town power roles today.

[Yosarian2]

I'm not going to respond to Yosarian2's post about the unrecruitable modifier.

...

I asked you why you would claim unrecruitable, when claiming unrecruitable is so obviously anti-town for any actual unrecruitable people to do, while being a good thing for recruited scum to claim, and your response is to "refuse to respond"?

[Yosarian2]

If anyone has an anti-recruitment power, USE IT ON ME. Feel free to lynch me on Day 3 after the plan is explained to everyone.

Lol. There is so much WIFOM this game, I love it.

Cobblerfone: I don't want to to claim anything else; in fact, I wish you hadn't claimed what you have. What I would like is for you to explain why you claimed so prematurely.

[Yosarian2]

Yos- You clearly haven't played with me often enough to know my scum meta based on your description of me.

Perhaps. I've played with you a bunch of times, and I generally think of you as a solid, reliable, generally logical player who's not too high profile, who's generally active but is rarely going to be one of the top posters of a game. I can't remember offhand if I've played with you when you were scum, though.

Since you brought it up; what would you say your scum meta is, then?

[qutoe]
Not liking Cobb or xvart, as well as Ludi. Claiming unrecruitable is similar to me as someone claiming bulletproof in a normal game. Combine that with his play - voting someone because their role is doctor (changes it for a policy lynch for an ongoing game ) However, xvart's attack on him (starting around Cobb's ISO 11) makes me think xvart is trying hard to get the lead wagon shifted over to Cobb, and not because he finds Cobb scummy[/quote]

Yeah, I agree with this. That being said, remember we're looking for two scum in opposing scum groups here. Xvart and Cobb can't be scum together, but we already knew that; even if Xvart does flip scum, that doesn't actually tell us anything about Cobb.

[Yosarian2]

I really cannot understand the attacks on Cobblerfone. Do people really think recruiters would have targeted him? No offense to Cobbler, but why would I back someone untested .. It's been two months since he joined the site ..

That's a fair question.

I guess my concern is that I don't really see a pro-town unrecruitable claiming the way he did, but if I was a scum recruiter and I decided to recruit a newbie, I'd probably tell him "If you get in trouble, just claim unrecruitable. It's unconfirmable, it's safe, town won't want to lynch an unrecruitable, counterclaims are not a problem since there may be more then one unrecruitable, and it'll keep you safe from the other scum recruiter".

Basically, it's just the perfect scum fakeclaim, while at the same time, a town unrecrutable should not even think about claiming at, what was he at, 3 votes or something? So him claiming unrecruitable is either a "good scum play", or it's a "REALLY bad town play", and that makes me suspicious.

[Yosarian2]

Full disclosure: I've never been lynched D1, and I think I have only been lynched 2 or 3 times total.

(nods) Yeah, I believe it.

What day were you recruited in Succession 1?

I was town day 1, then I was recruited the night after that, I believe. Looking back at the game, looks like I was recruited at the same time you were, heh.

[Yosarian2]

Also, I *think* Kinetic slipped that there is more recruitment that is possible. Maybe.

In the first Succession Mafia game, the cult could either recruit or kill.

[Yosarian2]

@Yos

why do you think cobbler's play is good scum play, yet not voting him?

I think there's a pretty good chance he's scum, and I'm considering voting him. I'm a little reluctant to lynch a claimed unrecrutable, but then again that's exactally why scum would claim unrecruitable, ect, and the main goal has to be to lynch one of the two scum today if we've got any chance of doing so.

[Yosarian2]

You can see, Yos, people are running up xvart to a lynch expressely BECAUSE he if 'hard to lynch' 'a good player' 'not lynched day one'. It is not over the actions he has taken in this game, (or if people think that, the reasons are very weak and not substantiated), but over the fact that he is an ideal lynch for day one because he is NOT (in the views of many) likely to be lynched day one.

Cult Recruiters are people too. They would reason this out.

Lol. Thank you for giving a perfect example of why you never take WIFOM logic to the second degree and beyond.

"X is a low profile but good player who's never lynched day 1, but the town might figure out that I want to recruit a low profile but good player who's never lynched day 1, and might lynch him for being a low profile but good player who's never lynched day 1, so..."

Albert and Kinetic are both decent players, but nobody has a crystal ball THAT good to predict to THAT degree what a town is going to do in advance.

I have yet to see someone in this thread CLAIM they would have recruited xvart, instead the words are something like 'other people would recruit him because he is so good' so he should be lynched off.

Huh? If I was a recruiter, I would have recrutied Xvart. That was my whole pooint.

As for sheeping with a vote, I see no reason to. You aren't going to get buddy reactions, there are none. You didn't attempt to generate discussion from what I could see. It would almost be better if we all talked, all with whatever orginal thoughts popped into our heads, and then lynched someone off.

How are we going to lynch someone off if no one ever votes for anyone that anyone else is voting for? How can we get any information at all if we never wagon anyone?

"Why is everyone so determined to protect the cult recruiters from answering questions here?"

I asked this already and they answered about page 4-5. They had some other interactions back there, so it is critical you read that as well as whatever else you may of missed.

Of course I read what happened back on page 4. It's kind of insulting that you think I didn't. That's not actually the question I was asking, though, and if they had answered the question, I think it would have been a big help to the town.

[Yosarian2]

Yos2, why not briefly state the difference between the earlier question and your recent one?

I was trying to get each one of them to name one specific person that they think their opponent would have recruited, not a general list. Honestly, the more we can get them to name names, the more likely they are to trip themselves up; for one thing, if they were forced to name one specific person, they probably wouldn't bring more attention to their own recruit.

Of course, Kinteic ignored me, and Albert responded by saying he thought Kintetic would have recruited me, hehe. Albert's playing the WIFOM game on a deep level this game.

[Yosarian2]

I think I get the joke. It's funny because Albert's the one who recruited you. Saying kinetic might have recruited you is irony because Albert knows that's impossible.

Hehe. No, he didn't, but I suspect that he wanted you to wonder. Like I said, he's playing the WIFOM on a deep level this game.

[Yosarian2]

(that being said, if someone is doing anti-town actions and it is resonable they were recruited, like Yos2 and Batt, they make good lynches)

Ok, now you're just making stuff up. I haven't done any "anti-town" actions this game, unless you think me trying to figure out who the scum are are anti-town.

[Yosarian2]

Yosa is acting really weird, supporting the cobbler wagon with a weak argument (the fakeclaim) which is scummy as feck

...what?

I don't think it's at all likely that a pro-town unrecruitable claims unrecruitable at 3 votes. that would be an absolutely terrible move. This is one of those "scum or VI" situations, and cobbler just doesn't seem that dumb to me.

[Yosarian2]

Let me last at least one night. If I'm scum the other scum will kill me anyway.

Hmm? No matter if you're a scum or if you're unrecruitable, they probably won't kill you at this early stage either way. Assuming the mechanics are the same as the first game (scum either recruit or kill every night), the scum will probably start killing each other at some point later on, but at this early stage in the game, they'll probably recruit instead. Although they might make an exception if they think they can wipe out the other scum group.

From what I understand if the recruiters try to recruit an unrecruitable or another scum, the recruitment becomes a kill. I only read up to where Seraphim got replaced out in Succession I. I'll read the end to find out if it's explained there. (and assuming similiar mechanics.)

If you actually have the unrecruitable role, why don't you just ask the mod yourself what happens if the scum try to recruit you?

[Yosarian2]

yosa:

VOTE: Popular Tajo

I don't think I'm allowed to say why. But he's a "doctor". I'd recruit the doctor even if he weren't guranteed to be a "role-doctor".

this screams vi rather than recruited scum, agree?

Dunno, as newbie scum I would do that kind of "look I'm a newbie" too. It's a hard call to make.

except the difference here is that recruiters wouldnt go for newbies.

Yeah, the whole "scum probably wouldn't recruit newbies" wifom stuff is a very valid argument, and it's the main reason I'm not voting cobbler right now.

[Yosarian2]

And I've already adressed that the flavor will hint too much at my role.

Hint too much at...the role you've already claimed?

Ever since I mentioned that the unrecruitable roles in Sucession I also had another ability as well, he's been hinting that he has a second ability that he hasn't claimed. Which, frankly, just makes me more suspicious.

[Yosarian2]

Players that don't like the xvart wagon are welcome to pile their votes on MLudi.

The basically self-contradictory WIFOM arguments Mludi are using to both say xvart is town and to say I am scum seem pretty scummy, especially since he hasn't really done anything else.

[Yosarian2]

So, Albert: if you were going to recruit a newbie like cobblerfone or MLudi instead of an experienced player like xvart on day 1, why would you do it?

[Yosarian2]

So, Albert: if you were going to recruit a newbie like cobblerfone or MLudi instead of an experienced player like xvart on day 1, why would you do it?

what kind of question is this?

what VALID answer did you expect to get?

Vote: Yosarian2

...

I was asking the cult leader a question, Tajo, in the hopes of getting some kind of useful reaction.

I realize they're going to try to WIFOM us all day, but the whole "we know who the scum are" stuff is one of the interesting things about this game, and it dosn't cost us anything to poke at them and see how they respond.

I don't get at all how you can vote me for that. It's not at all anti-town, and while it's not all that likely to get us information, it's worth a shot, and it's at least entertaining to try.

[Yosarian2]

Really would like you to answer my question, Tajo. Why are you so keen on trying to get me to leave the confirmed scum alone?

As far as I can tell, there's nothing anti-town about me asking them questions. You attacking me and actually voting for that really seems odd, like you're either trying to fake a reason to suspect me, or else you're trying to prevent me from getting reactions from the cult recruiters.

[Yosarian2]

YOU ARE ASKING QUESTIONS TO CONFIRMED SCUM TO TRY TO APPEAR HELPFUL.

Bull. I have been helpful, more helpful then many people in this game. Far more helpful then you voting me for doing something that's not anti-town.

If you don't think my attempts to draw the cult recruiters out are going to be fruitful, then feel free to ignore them, i don't care. You calling them scummy, though, when they're at best potentially helpful and at worst harmless, looks like an attempt on your part to fake scumhunting.

THEIR ANSWERS ARE FULL OF WIFOM AND SHIT.

Of course they are. That's exactly why they might be useful.

I don't know where people got the idea that WIFOM=useless. That couldn't be farther from the truth.

WHAT VALID INFO DID YOU SINCERELY THINK YOU COULD GET?

If I ask a cult recruiter about recruiting inexeperenced people, do you really think that his response is going to be exactly the same no matter if he recruited one or not? I don't. People's emotions and their goals affect their posting, always, especially in high pressure situations like today would be for a cult recruiter.

Kinetic is playing his cards close to his chest, unfortunately. There's information to be gathered from that too, though; I'd expect Kinetic to be trying more gambits if we were close to lynching his recruit. On the other hand, ABR is trying to fling all kinds of BS around, he's attacking people (like me), he's playing WIFOM games. All that suggests to me that he's worried, that one of the top wagons might be his recruit, that he wants to create a distraction.

[Yosarian2]

tanarin, how does claiming unrecruitable help cobblerfone cult?

It reduces his odds of being lynched. It's a strong, important power role that he will never have to confirm in any way, and that doesn't have any risk of being counterclaimed (since there's fairly likely more then one unrecruitable townie anyway). If believed, it reduces his odds of being investigated later, or being vigged, or being targeted by other town roles. Also, one big risk of cult recruits is that if the other cult targets them and fails, then the other cult will know their alignment and the recruiter can leak that information to the town; being untargatable eliminates that risk.

All in all, it's a great claim for a cult recruit. There's really none better.

[Yosarian2]

Tajo: You're just all around wrong here, and I'm going to stop responding to you, because I have no desire to give the cult recruiters any more hints. I think your pressure on this area is pretty scummy, though.

not aas scummy as Cobbler, though.

Why are you so focused on getting answers out of Rampage?

I'm hardly "focused" on it. I asked the two cult recruiters one question, on a lark. People are making way too much of what was basically a no-cost longshot gambit that took all of 2 minutes to try.

Plus, during confirmation so it's a bit fuzzy of whether you could've been scum by then, you made guesses about the set-up and the number of scum and the way the recruiters pick. Set-up speculation is one of the few scumtells I trust. Especially since you seem to have a history of it from Succession One when you were a confirmed recruit. (Though I can't find the post so if that was actually someone else, it'd be helpful to point it out.)

I didn't make any "guesses about the setup", cobbler, I talked about the setup that the mod told us in the rules, and then I guessed about who the scum woudl pick, in order to try to find the scum. In any case, in any theme game, trying to figure out the setup and the town stratagy is absolutly vital for the town to do; calling that a scum tell is terrible.

And yes, of course I did setup speculation on day 1 of succession mafia 1. I was also town on day 1 of succession mafia 1, I wasn't recruited until later. Trying to figure out the setup is a pro-town act.

[Yosarian2]

I'm hardly "focused" on it. I asked the two cult recruiters one question, on a lark. People are making way too much of what was basically a no-cost longshot gambit that took all of 2 minutes to try.

I meant in relation to Kinetic.

I asked the question to both cult leaders. Albert responded, Kinetic didn't.

Kinetic really isn't saying anything this game, and Albert's more likely to take risks in general. Albert has a big ego, and wants to prove he's smarter then me, so he's likely to go way out on a limb to try to beat me at the WIFOM game.

The truth is, though, that while I directed that question to the two cult leaders, I was really more interested in how other people would respond to it.

I was refering to what someone else had said. I still can't find it, but apparently when you were recruited and "confirmed" scum somehow they left you alive because you were leaking (false) details about the number of recruits each team had, etc.

Oh, no no. I was investigated to be a cult recruit, which meant the town knew I was scum but couldn't afford to lynch me until they found the cult recruiters. While I was "confirmed scum" but unlynchable, I played a lot of WIFOM games with the town, so I actually have a pretty good idea of the situation Kinetic and Albert are in, and the strengths and weaknesses of it.

[Yosarian2]

I'd also expect the CRs to go after someone that would be safe on D1, and I don't recall Yos being lynched on day one that often.

I'm getting either lynched early for what seems to be shit reasonsor wagoned close to a lynch in something like 2/3ds of the games I play now, and I have no idea why. It's unbelievably frustrating. I don't know if I'm getting worse or if everyone else is, but it's to the point where I'm thinking about just quitting mafia for a while after my current games are over.

Anyway, that's neither here nor there, but let's just say that any argument based on "Yos doesn't get lynched" is years out of date at this point.

[Yosarian2]

The truth is, though, that while I directed that question to the two cult leaders, I was really more interested in how other people would respond to it.

Don't leave us waiting.

Meh. Considering everyone basically ignored it, except for Tajo attacking me for "pretending to be helpful" or whatever, I didn't really get any useful reactions. Was worth a shot though.

[Yosarian2]

This bothers me though a bit. If you know what they are going through, why even bothering asking them questions?

Because I know how easy it is to slip up in that position when you try to be too clever.

You KNOW they are gonna WIFOM the shit out of you, and make it 100x harder for yourself and the town.

That dosn't make any sense. Either we ignore it, or we try to outsmart them and figure out what they're getting at.

Everyone does everything for a reason. If they're trying to "WIFOM the shit out of me", then that's great. That means we can look at what they're doing, how they're doing it, look at what they're trying to accomplish.

I don't know why everyone is making such a big deal about this. I don't expect to get that much information from this; we might get a little bit of unreliable but useful information, or we might not. It certainly can't hurt us. Either way, we need to focus on actually hunting scum, not arguing about this.

[Yosarian2]

Yosarian2, how do you think and play when you were confirmed cult in the previous succession mafia? What was your thought process, how did you act, and what are you seeing in Kinetic and ABR play that reflects or doesn't reflect this.

It was a totally different situation. I know that the WIFOM game is dangerous. I was trying to convince people I was part of the "smaller cult group" in order to get attention away from me and my cult recruiter, but some people saw through it and figured out what i was doing. I don't see what any of that has to directly do with this situation, though.

Are you trying the "get person X mislynched by calling back the emotions of a different game where they were scum" gambit? That's a pretty scummy tactic, if you are.

And, would you mind linking me to the last game were you were lynched day one.

I can't think of any recent games where I was lynched on day 1, but I've either been mislynched or vigged as town in a hell of a lot of my recent games, and it's really getting frustrating.

[Yosarian2]

What? Who are you talking to, prozac? I didn't vote ML.


Guy is scummy as hell, though, and the wagon makes as much sense as anything else.

[Yosarian2]

Battousai: How does this ability you're claiming work? Will xvart show up as having no votes on the next vote count? If we lynch him, does nothing happen, or does the day just end, or what? Can we test your claim without negative effects to the town?

I don't know why we're talking about vigging DGB. She really wouldn't make a good day 1 recruitment target at all; she's the kind of person who's either leading the town or getting lynched, with absolutely no middle ground. Nothing she's done today seems scummy to me, either.

[Yosarian2]

Hey guys

Since I'm going to be vig'ed - why don't you lynch me? Really, being vig'ed is a frikkin' embarrassment. I die at the hands of scum, or I die from a lynch.

DGB

DGB: Please don't do your kamakazi thing this game. It's really not helpful.

I don't think you're going to get vigged, but even if you were, we really want to lynch scum today and wipe out one of the scum groups. If you are town, which you probably are, this is not going to help the town here.

[Yosarian2]

Ooba: Yeah, Tajo makes a lot of sense as a possible scum recruit here. His whole "let's just ignore the scum" stuff isn't unreasoanble, but the way he's focusing on "ignoring the scum" but then not actually doing anything else other then attacking me for a theory disagreement seems pretty scummy. The arguments he's been using to attack me have been pretty thin anyway; it was basically just the theory disagreement, and him completly misrepresenting my attacks against Cobbler.

[Yosarian2]

Hey guys

Since I'm going to be vig'ed - why don't you lynch me? Really, being vig'ed is a frikkin' embarrassment. I die at the hands of scum, or I die from a lynch.

DGB

DGB: Please don't do your kamakazi thing this game. It's really not helpful.

I don't think you're going to get vigged, but even if you were, we really want to lynch scum today and

wipe out one of the scum groups

. If you are town, which you probably are, this is not going to help the town here.

Hold it.

What do you mean by the bolded?

This is a white flag game. If the only surviving member of a scum group is the cult leader, the scum group is gone. So, assuming that each cult recruited one person on night 1, if we find and lynch one of those two recruits today, then we wipe out that cult group completely.

We went over this a lot on the earlier pages of the game.

[Yosarian2]

Yos, then let's vote him. Your vote on xvart is wasted now anyway. Or are you waiting for a VC to confirm that?

I'm pretty sure batoussi already admitted that his whole "pardon" thing was just a silly gambit and is not actually a role ability.

[Yosarian2]

The bolded was what I was looking for.

I'm interested in why you're making this assumption.

That's what we've all been assuming, seems to make the most sense with the facts we have. Why, what alternate theory are you proposing for the setup?

[Yosarian2]

im not only attacking you, MR IMPORTANT

Really.

Name one relevant contribution you've made this game other then attacking me for a mafia theory disagreement, and your odd defense of Cobbler.

how Im misrepresenting your attacks against Cobbler?

You said:

Yosa is acting really weird, supporting the cobbler wagon with a weak argument (the fakeclaim) which is scummy as feck

You described my attack against him as "a weak argument (the fakeclaim)", when what I was actually saying which was a comment that it's incredibly unlikely that a townie unrecruitable would claim unrecruitable with 3 votes on him.

[Yosarian2]

The bolded was what I was looking for.

I'm interested in why you're making this assumption.

That's what we've all been assuming, seems to make the most sense with the facts we have. Why, what alternate theory are you proposing for the setup?

I'm proposing that one of the two following must be true:

There are no Recruit Immune Roles in this game!

Each Mob Lieutenant recruits more than 1 player pre-game!

Because if both are true, then that would mean that

a mafia faction can lose the game in pre-game, by selecting a recruit immune role.

And there's no way that Flay would make this setup with that possibility in it.

It's much more likely that if a scum fails to recruit pre-game (and only if a scum fails to recruit pre-game) that they get another chance. Either that, or the White Flag rules don't apply until there's at least two scum.

The possibility you're talking about can happen about even without unrecrutable roles; what happens if they both target the same person, for example? One of them must fail, and then is that the end of the scum group if that happens night zero?

In any case, there almost has to be some way for scum to fail (either unrecruitable roles, or a cult doc, or something) or else town really can't win even if they lynch right every night. (With a vig, it's theoretically possible, but town probably needs more help then just that.)

(shrug) Your other possibility could be right, but I doubt it. The game is already going to be really, really hard for town to win. It's possible that scum get multiple recruitments on day zero, or a few people started out as recruits or something, but frankly, that just seems unfair.

[Yosarian2]

This shows pretty clearly that Yos isn't reading the game which he said he was, but thats not the biggest problem (though it is a problem).

I've already responded to that, ML. You obviously aren't reading my posts. Either that, or you just don't care about the actual answer to your questions, you're just trying to stir up some BS.

The fact is that he's incorporating emotion into his posts, talk of 'quitting' 'being insulted' and other such things. It appears to me that he is using it to make himself appear to be the 'good-guy' and so no one lynches him.

So, what; I tell the truth and that makes me scum?

Of course I'm insulted when someone accuses me of not reading the game. I don't know how you could actually think that at this point. And as for the rest, you're taking the rest of it out of context, probably deliberately so; I never threatened to quit this game or whatever you're talking about, I just mentioned the frequency I get lynched in order to counter a false meta-argument someone used to attack me.

I'm really starting to run out of patience with you just repeating the same BS over and over again to attack me even when you have to know that you're wrong, when you should be actually scumhunting.

[Yosarian2]

Ooba, I'm saying that two people got scum role PM's from Flay. They were already scum with the Recruiters. They were not recruited.

If each scum groups starts with two members, and then gets another one each day, while the town can only lynch one person a day, how could town possibly win?

[Yosarian2]

Yos, did you remember saying this about quitting?

"It's unbelievably frustrating. I don't know if I'm getting worse or if everyone else is, but it's to the point where I'm thinking about just quitting mafia for a while after my current games are over. "

That has nothing to do with this game at all. It was a general comment, because I'm frustrated with being run up for absolutely retarted reasons or no reason at all every single game I play. The only real relevence of that post was I was correcting the misconception that I never get lynched.

Really, I'm not repeating the same 'bs' over and over again. I brought up quite a valid point, in my opinion, about the progression of events where you asked the CR a question they had already answered (and I asked) and I said I had already asked, you denied it, said yours was different, and when I accused you of not reading the game (which It seemed like you hadn't) you get insulted. What am I missing here, really?

The fact that the question was completly different, and I already explained why it was completley different? The fact that a general "What top 5 players do you think are good players who you might want to recruit" question leaves them a hell of a lot more room for random BS then a more specific "Who did you recruit last night"? Neither one is likely to get a streight answer, of course, but the response mine got was more useful.

And as for 'scumhunting', I think i've done quite well in that regard.

Hardly. All you do is keep attacking me for changing, meaningless "reasons" that don't make any sense and don't have anything to do with my alignment in this game. You spent your posts from 0-16 "trying to get into the minds" of Albert and Kinetic, and then the rest of your posts attacking me for doing the same thing. You haven't really commented on the major wagons at all. You made a quick, silly "hand of suspicion" on Battousi, and then never mentioned it again.

You've done a complete turn around here, from spending your first 17 posts obsessing about every word spoken by Albert and Kinetic, to this:

The only time I would really consider the CR's information at all useful is when they are trying to take out or damage the other recruiter. Other than that, avoid it.

And the only reason I can think of for this change is that if you take that stance now, it lets you continue to launch BS attacks against me.

[Yosarian2]

And as for commenting on the major wagons, there are two, I repeat, TWO cult recruits alive in the game. That means there are only TWO anti-town people running about. If I believe I have nailed them, why waste time at all commenting on any other people in the game?

I have you for one recruit, I had Batt as the other. Chrono's lurking/anti-town behavior has me worried though, and I think it is now a distinct possibility that he was recruited just as you were.

Well, you're obviously wrong about at least one of those. More to the point, I'm trying to figure out if you've been recruited or not, so i want to hear your thoughts about people other then "two people you can safely make halfharted attacks against to look busy because they're probably not going to get lynched today." Your case against Battousi, especially, is pretty terrible, and I think it's pretty unlikely he's scum here; I really don't think that a scum who just wants to survive day 1 at all costs would draw all kinds of attention to themselves like he has with his silly gambits.

I'm trying to figure out if all of your "scumhunting" is just you trying to look active, because none of it really looks like you're saying anything you really expect to be taken seriously.

[Yosarian2]

Top 3 suspects:
Xvart
Cobblerfone
Magister Ludi

(dis)Honorable mention: (suspect #4) populartajo

[Yosarian2]

yosa, seriously, why cobblerfone?

do you seriously think kin and abr would have gone with a risky selection and predicted people buying the wifom to not lynch a weak player?

(shrug)

Out of my top 4 suspects, 2 of them are the "WIFOM outguess the CR's" suspects, people who I suspect because of a combination of their likeliness to be recruited and their behavior (you and Xvart), while the other two are just incredibly scummy, the most likely suspects if you ignore WIFOM stuff and look at their behavior (cobblerfone and Magister Ludi).

The WIFOM "outguess the recruiters" stuff is useful and does have it's place, but I am strongly tempted to just ignore it and lynch people who are acting like scum. Because, yes, if the scum's only goal was for their first recruit to survive the first day, it's possible that a recruiter might have been counting on us not lynching a new player today. Especially if the recruiter personally had reason to believe that they were a decent player, just an unknown one.

Cobblerfone, Magister Ludi: Have either of you ever played with Kinetic or Albert before?

[Yosarian2]

LL: IF I were you, I'd ignore it. We already know Kinetic is scum; if he talks about actual game related stuff, it could work to our advantage, but if we let him distract the town into a pointless side conversation that slows us down, worsens the signal/noise ratio, and waste valuable time, it only helps him and hurts us. Kinetic is smart, he doesn't do anything without a reason, and this is probably a gambit. It looks like he's trying to bait you for tactical reasons, trying to make you mad and keep you talking about non-game-related stuff to make you look worse, to both stall and confuse the town and probably make you easier to lynch. Don't fall for it.

In related news, I am pretty convinced now that at least Kinetic did not recruit Lady Lambdadelta. Baiting your lone cult recruit like that, making them more visible, would be terrible play; and I also don't think LL would get this angry at her cult recruiter, and, no offense, but I don't think she's probably the kind of player who's willing or able to fake that kind of anger. That doesn't prove she's town, of course, but it lowers the odds of her being scum.

[Yosarian2]

Lets lynch the lurkers, because the cult recuriters will go after someone who actually has a chance to be lynched and leave alive the people who contribute who probably are recruited and therefore has a higher chance of been scum.
If this wasn't a cult game, your thinking would be correct. Because this is a cult game, your thinking is wrong.
Cult plays differently from scum.

No....... recruitees are likely to lurk.

You are inverting the chicken and the egg.

Yeah, that makes sense. If your goal is just to get through day 1 without getting lynched, you are likely to lurk. Lurking doesn't work as a long term scum strategy, but semi-lurking is a good way to get through until day 2 or 3 without anyone really noticing.

[Yosarian2]

This pings hard. It smells of buddying up while trying not to be obvious by adding a light playstyle berating to the mix, and while still leaving open the option that LL might still be scum. It's just not straightforward.

...what are you talking about?

It's completly streightfoward. I think LL was not recruited by Kinetic, you can tell that by their interaction. It does leave open the possibility that LL was recruited by Albert, but it's still a useful fact to know.

[Yosarian2]

(still don't like Batt but no one else seems to agree with me here?)

Well, you could actually try and make a case against , and then people might. You haven't really explained your "suspicion" of him at all.

[Yosarian2]

I'm thinking Chrono is Kinetic's recruit.

Say ABR's recruit?

(nods) I'm really liking Xvart's chances of flipping scum here.

[Yosarian2]

Re Chrono: Chrono can easily be seen as a probable recruit, as someone who was recruited for a good majority of S1. It wouldn't surprise me at least one recruit is a returning player.

Is that really your whole case against Chrono?

[Yosarian2]

Re Chrono: Chrono can easily be seen as a probable recruit, as someone who was recruited for a good majority of S1. It wouldn't surprise me at least one recruit is a returning player.

Is that really your whole case against Chrono?

I understand that you disagree? Do you find him likely town?

This isn't about what I think. What this is about is that, if the game is 40 pages long, and Flameaxe listed Chrono as one of his 3 suspects, he should have more reason then "He was recruited on night 4 of sucession mafia I".

As for what I think; if someone has a decent case against Chrono, I want to hear it. As of right now, I haven't really heard a convincing one.

[Yosarian2]

If there's a convincing case that he's town, I want to hear that. Humor me.

If I had a strong reason to believe that he was town, I certainty would have shared it before now, considering he's one of the main suspects.

For the most part, he's pretty null. He hasn't said that much, or done that much. I actually consider him calling DGB town and sheeping on her Xvart vote a fairly reasonable move at the early point of the game when he did it, but he hasn't really done much since then. Of course, he has been limited access. (shrug)

The fact that he hasn't really done anything pro-town yet is certainty an argument against him, but I wouldn't put him in my top suspects list.

[Yosarian2]

I would like to point out twice now Yos2 has ignored questions directly asked of him by me. You can state you don't want to answer them for whatever reason you like, but ignoring them completley only keeps solidifiying my read on you.

What question did I ignore?

I didn't answer your:

Also, what was the point of your question?

because the reason for my question was obvious, and the only reason you asked that question was to try to manipulate me into saying that you not having played with Kinetic or with Albert was a point in your favor. You were just trying to make yourself look town here by answering a fake question you already knew the answer to, and so I don't think I need to dignify it with a response.

I don't know what other question you're talking about; most of your posts seem to include pointless rhetorical questions that you don't seem to actually expect an answer to (like this one:

Yos, did you remember saying this about quitting?

It's all just cheap retorical tricks and typical manipulative behavior. I don't see any questions you asked me that seemed like they were at all interested in getting any real information.

[Yosarian2]

I'm not liking your answer here because I'm thinking that if you were town, you would know that the post I'm putting in dispute isn't a strong post. But maybe I wasn't clear, so my thinking goes like this:

LL: IF I were you, I'd ignore it. We already know Kinetic is scum; if he talks about actual game related stuff, it could work to our advantage, but if we let him distract the town into a pointless side conversation that slows us down, worsens the signal/noise ratio, and waste valuable time, it only helps him and hurts us. Kinetic is smart, he doesn't do anything without a reason, and this is probably a gambit. It looks like he's trying to bait you for tactical reasons, trying to make you mad and keep you talking about non-game-related stuff to make you look worse, to both stall and confuse the town and probably make you easier to lynch. Don't fall for it.

In related news, I am pretty convinced now that at least Kinetic did not recruit Lady Lambdadelta. Baiting your lone cult recruit like that, making them more visible, would be terrible play; and I also don't think LL would get this angry at her cult recruiter, and, no offense, but I don't think she's probably the kind of player who's willing or able to fake that kind of anger. That doesn't prove she's town, of course, but it lowers the odds of her being scum.

The way in which you berate LL at first looks as if you think she is town, and that you wish to prevent her from falling for Kinetic's baiting. But then at the end of your post, you add that she still may be scum, on ABR's team.

1. If you think that LL is town, why the need to put emphasis on the fact that she still may be scum?
2. If you think that she still may scum, on ABR's team, why would you display willingness at preventing her from getting into a fight with the another scum team?

Two different parts of the post.

The first part was designed to convince LL to stop acting in a way that was anti-town, and that I think a confirmed scum was trying to get her to do. Getting her to stop arguing with Kinetic about irrelevant stuff and instead focus on the game is going to help the town no matter what her alignment is. And, yes, if I am trying to modify someone's behavior and give them advice, especally when I'm trying to get them to calm down an emotional reaction, I'm not going to do it in a hostile way; that's usually completely ineffective, and would have just resulted in her getting more emotional and less productive.

The second part was a semi-related analysis post. In it, I came to the conclusion that LL is not scum with Kinetic. She could, of course, be scum with Albert, but that really doesn't seem especially likely. Of course I mentioned that, because it was obviously the result of the logic of the argument I was making.

So you see, I think there is something that is not straight-forward here, something that doesn't fit.

What's that?

The way I see it, the factor of disturbance comes from the fact that you try to achieves two things in that post:
First you try to buddy up to LL because she has done something you judge everyone else sees as town (btw I think you're wrong, and I think emotional display and pointless bickering is the easiest thing to fake as scum), by talking to her as a berating but friendly townie.
Second, you try to remind the town that she still may be scum.

You're right that I'm trying to achieve two things, but you're totally wrong about what those two things are. I first tried to convince her to stop acting in an anti-town way, and then I make a logical argument that reduced her odds of being scum for the rest of the town (who were at the time trying to lynch her, and then mostly backed off after I made that argument).

Emotional displays aren't that hard to fake as scum, but getting angry about having your gender questioned by a scumbudy in thread? I don't think so. I don't see that happening from either side. If Kinetic was actually attacking her for behavior, that I could see as distancing, but it looks like he was just baiting her and picking on her, trying to piss her off, and it worked. I just don't see scumbuddies doing that to each other. On the other hand, pissing someone off and getting them to explode emotionally is a good way for a scum to get a townie to self destruct, and I think that was probably Kinetic's goal there.

[Yosarian2]

Also at Yos, several question included why you asked if I had played with the CR's before, questions over why you ignored my reasoning when presented as opposed to LL, and others.

So, like I said, cheap rhetorical tricks, not real questions.

Or are you actually saying you don't understand why I asked this question? I don't believe that, honestly.

The WIFOM "outguess the recruiters" stuff is useful and does have it's place, but I am strongly tempted to just ignore it and lynch people who are acting like scum. Because, yes, if the scum's only goal was for their first recruit to survive the first day, it's possible that a recruiter might have been counting on us not lynching a new player today. Especially if the recruiter personally had reason to believe that they were a decent player, just an unknown one.

Cobblerfone, Magister Ludi: Have either of you ever played with Kinetic or Albert before?

[Yosarian2]

Really not happy with the way TheAdmeral is trying to do some meaningless math voodo to figure out who we should lynch rather then just placing his own vote based on his own logic.

[Yosarian2]

Really not happy with the way TheAdmeral is trying to do some meaningless math voodo to figure out who we should lynch rather then just placing his own vote based on his own logic.

As I said above, at least I am trying to do something. And you might notice I haven't changed my vote, and am still voting for the person who I chose based on my own logic.

(shrug) I don't really mind the list; although I've had bad experiences with similar things in the past, I understand the impulse to try to get a consensus created for a lynch before deadline. But I would like to see you scumhunt as well, was my point. It's been a while since we really heard your opinions on anything.

[Yosarian2]

mmm. I still think xvart is more likely to be scum.

Of course, the dumbest thing we could do today is no-lynch.

[Yosarian2]

Let's move this along now, shall we.

Where have you been?

Why, aren't you allowed to prod your cult recruiter during the day?

[Yosarian2]

Its that sort of nonsencial rubbish that really affirms you being recruited in my eyes.

Lol. You just keep finding weaker and weaker reasons to attack me. "He's scum because he's picking on meeee."

I'm guessing that's so you don't have to do any real scumhunting.

[Yosarian2]

VOTE: Yosarian2

Sheeping attacks on xvart, Cobbler, and Ludi.

Wrong on all three counts. None of those were "sheeping", unless "sheeping" means "any time anyone attacks anyone that anyone else has ever attacked".

The attack on Cobbler is particularly suspicious because Cobbler claims to be a town PR that cult can't recruit to serve their purposes.

Yes, it's a completely unconfirmable claim that town are very reluctant to lynch. That's why it's a great scum claim.

That being said, you'll notice I never actually voted him at any point today, because I'm uncomfortable with the risk that he might be telling the truth.

[Yosarian2]

Battousai: Besides the huge possible gain of hitting, there's just the fact that in a cult game, no-lynching brings the cult towards a town loss much faster then in a game with a killing scum group. No-lynching is betting on the idea that town power roles are stronger then scum power roles...and in a game with 2 (!) recruiting scum groups, that's pretty much impossible.

Also, why do you say "a worse then random chance of lynching scum"? If there's only 1 scum in each group, then no scum will have any buddies defending him, so surely at worst we have a random chance of lynching scum, and better if we use our brains at all.

[Yosarian2]

This is not helpful, dgb. We really need to lynch scum today.

Anyway, we've got about 24 hours before deadline. If it's the only way to make sure we don't no-lynch, I'll move my vote over to chronopie tomorrow, but I don't like it. I really don't think he's that likely to be scum here.

[Yosarian2]

DGB:

With 25 voters, it will take 13 to lynch. Nightfall will occur no later than the end of June 14th, server time;

[Yosarian2]

\
Yos- Since each side only has 1 scum, we lose a bit of tells. Combine that with the scum being able to manipulate us (as in, town at best has random chance at lynching scum D1), it's at a lower threshold. Also, please explain to me how not removing a town player from the game (mislynching) will make it easier for scum to fulfill their win condition than if we do mislynch?

Cult games tend to end one of two ways; either the town lynches the cult early, or the cult obliterates the town late. There is very little middle ground.

Every day we don't lynch a scum, the cults grow bigger rapidly and the town grows smaller rapidly. The difference between a mislynch and a no-lynch is relitivly small.

Lynching scum today is probably our best chance of winning. I can't imagine why we no lynch today; we might as well just give up the entire game if we're not going to even try to lynch scum now. If you're seriously suggesting a no-lynch, that's the most anti-town thing I've heard all game.

Yos- tsk, tsk, tsk. Already distancing yourself from the lynch while helping it go through.

What? I'm completely in favor of the Xvart wagon. When did I ever "distance myself from it"?

[Yosarian2]

Sheeping attacks on xvart, Cobbler, and Ludi.

Wrong on all three counts. None of those were "sheeping", unless "sheeping" means "any time anyone attacks anyone that anyone else has ever attacked".

Here is how I see your xvart vote:
Yos: The scum will probably recruit someone of the following description: (general qualifications that about 1/3 of the playerlist meets)

1/3 of the player list? There's somewhere between 2 and 4 people in this game who are both top quality players and low profile. It's a pretty rare combination.

I first made the case for lynching xvart. i didn't mention him by name, but he's exactly the person i was thinking of, and DGB agreed with me and voted for the person I was planning on voting for.

With regard to cobbler and Ludi, they were both looking town (to me), but had wagons on them, when you started finding them scummy.

Cobbler made an incredibly scummy claim with, what, 3 votes on him. That was the point when I attacked him. 3 votes is barely a wagon, and if you thought someone looked town AFTER he claimed unrecruitable for no reason, then...i don't know what to say.

As for Ludi, I don't think he really ever had a wagon on him. At one point he had 3 votes, but I think that was it. I wasn't the only person to suspect him, but he was never in any significant danger of being lynched.

Again, your definition of "sheeping" seems to be "suspecting someone with a logical reason if anyone has ever voted for them at all."

The attack on Cobbler is particularly suspicious because Cobbler claims to be a town PR that cult can't recruit to serve their purposes.

Yes, it's a completely unconfirmable claim that town are very reluctant to lynch. That's why it's a great scum claim.

That being said, you'll notice I never actually voted him at any point today, because I'm uncomfortable with the risk that he might be telling the truth.

I believe I asked you long ago something like "what led Cobbler to claim?"

I spent ages trying to ask Cobbler that, and he never gave me a straight answer that made sense. He also quasi-changed his claim once I started pointing out how flawed it was, which makes it even more doubtful to me.

The most logical reason for "why did Cobbler claim unrecrutable" is "his cult recruiter mentioned in pre-game that unrecruitable would be a great fake claim, and like many newbie scum with a great fake claim, he couldn't wait to claim it." That fits his behavior better then any pro-town explanation I can come up with.

But if you're town and confident that xvart is scum, why did you say so little about him and ask him no questions?

(shrug) He's been relatively quiet today. Not lurking, but not really active. I'm also suspicious by the way he just calmly accepts that he's the main wagon. The biggest part of the case against him, though, is the WIFOM stuff, and that's not really something he can answer questions about.

[Yosarian2]

Ok it is post like xvart's last post that really make me feel like he is not part of a cult at this point. As was pointed out before, most of the main case against Xvart was the fact he was most likely a recruit choice and it pretty much has stuck all game.

Unvote

@Yos2: Ok you believe Cobbler is scum, yet you are on xvart? Still feel that is the right place to put your vote?

For crying out loud, deadline is TODAY. You've got to be voting for SOMEBODY here, we need to lynch.

As for your second question: yes, I've made quite clear that xvart and cobbler are two of my top suspects. I'd be willing to lynch either at this point. I don't think a cobbler wagon is going to happen right now, though.

[Yosarian2]

YOu too, bunnylover. You need to be voting for somebody.

[Yosarian2]

Yos- This is what you said in 1194 "If it's the only way to make sure we don't no-lynch, I'll move my vote over to chronopie tomorrow, but I don't like it. I really don't think he's that likely to be scum here." I must have misread that to thinking you meant xvart, but the point will stand if you switch to Chrono before deadline.

Um, lynching Chono at deadline > no lynching. Period.

Yes, you are right about the cult thing, but my point is that you shouldn't join a wagon on someone you feel is likely to flip town or you have a null read on. Yes, there is a chance at eliminating a scum team, but if your read is null at best, the chance is severly hampered from that players POV.

This is entierly wrong. We need to lynch today, we need to at least have a chance of lynching scum and lynching someone you're not sure about is much better for the town then letting a no-lynch happen. You'd have to basically have a cop innocent on someone in order to even consider no-lynching as an option.

The absolute worst thing that could happen would be a no-lynch, where we get absolutly no information and then tommorow we have to start all over again, except with two more of our strongest scumhunters now scum trying to mislead us. That would be a disaster, and it's really bothering me that you seem to be arguing in favor of a no-lynch "rather then lynching someone you have a null read on." Pushing for that is pretty scummy of you.

[Yosarian2]

Lynching at random is completely anti-town right now (in context of against no lynching).

That is so wrong, it's borderline scummy. Lynching at random gives us a chance of lynching scum, no lynching fucks us over horribly. You keep talking about "lynching at random is like trying to win the lotto"; no, it's not. It's only a 10% chance, but I'll take a 10% chance of wiping out half the scum in the game over a 100% of doing nothing and screwing the town over for sure.

[Yosarian2]

Anyway,

unvote

Vote: Chronopie

under protest. This is not one of out best options, but it's better then a no-lynch.

I still don't get why anyone is voting me at this point. It seems like people are like "i donno what to do, I guess I'll just vote Yos as a default" or something. No one's actually made a real case against me here. If anyone has any actual questions for me or anything, I'll be glad to answer.

[Yosarian2]

DGB, if we spend most of a month and 52 pages play, and then we no-lynch, then we come back tomorrow in the exact same position, with everyone still alive. There will probably be no scum kills, if this is a "scum can either kill or recruit but not both" game like the last one was. So we'll all come back tomorrow, we'll all have the same suspects, we'll spend another 3 weeks all making the same arguments against the same people and be in the same stalemate, except 2 more of us will be scum and will be subtly working against a scum lynch. That dosn't sound like a way for the town to win to me.

[Yosarian2]

Yos should claim his target N1.

Not his ACTION. I don't want his action. I want his target.

Ok, but I assume you have some reason for asking me this?

[Yosarian2]

What the hell is wrong with you, Tajo?

Anyway, yes, Serephem. Last night I attempted to target Ooba with an ability, but I believe I was roleblocked. Flavor was that I got a "blow to the back of the head".

[Yosarian2]

To respond to Battousai from yesterday

Yos- Are you so used to using some words that you forget the meaning? How is no lynch scummy? Your entire case against no lynch is that a lynch is beneficial for the town because it can remove a scum faction, but if what I was doing was scummy then I'd be helping my scum faction. If I was scum, then I would want a lynch as long as it wasn't myself. You may call it anti-town, and I will disagree with you. I think it is the most pro-town thing to do in this scenerio. I also like how you try and claim that a no lynch would result in a repeat of today. You forget that town HAS to have some night action to remove recruits (aka vigs) or the town has no chance at winning? Hell, you even have chrono as probably flipping town, yet you want him dead (though some credit to the fact that you are next on the wagon if it fails). That's anti-town.

Your attempt to force a no-lynch on day 1 was scummy, because it helps both scum groups and hurts the town. No-lynch would have meant that the town gets one day closer to losing, and it would have meant that any easy lynchbait townies is saved so they can be lynched later, making it harder for us to lynch cult later. If we hadn't lynched anyone yesterday, we'd be worse off today then we are now, because half the town would still be trying to lynch chronopie, and that would have kept the scum safe for another day. If you are scum, then no-lynching day 1 can only help your chances. Sure, scum could have tried to lynch someone from the other scum group, but if you're scum you only have a, what, 1/22 chance of pulling that off on day 1?

[Yosarian2]

What the hell is wrong with you, Tajo?

Anyway, yes, Serephem. Last night I attempted to target Ooba with an ability, but I believe I was roleblocked. Flavor was that I got a "blow to the back of the head".

ARE YOU LIKE SCARED OF MY VOTE?

No, but I think that it's scummy as hell that you voted me in response to Serephem confirming that I had a power role. Combined with all your behavior yesterday, and the fact you'd be a great recruitment target, you're my number 1 suspect right now.

Vote:Tajo

WHY DID YOU CLAIM YOUR ACTION AFTER I VOTED YOU?

Obviously, I claimed my target because of Serephem's question. It had nothing to do with your vote.

[Yosarian2]

Yos
- Why did you ask Ser that question - I mean it's usually obvious that people have good reasons for asking for claims
- Why ask that question and then not wait before replying?

Meh. Upon reflection, I decided that I didn't actually need Ser to give any details at this time.

[Yosarian2]

What the hell is wrong with you, Tajo?

Anyway, yes, Serephem. Last night I attempted to target Ooba with an ability, but I believe I was roleblocked. Flavor was that I got a "blow to the back of the head".

ARE YOU LIKE SCARED OF MY VOTE?

No, but I think that it's scummy as hell that you voted me in response to Serephem confirming that I had a power role.

lolwat?

ARE YOU LIKE SERIOUSLY SUGGESTING CONFIRMED POWER ROLE = CONFIRMED TOWN?

Not quite, but pro-town people usually want to avoid lynching power roles. Scum would love to, especially since half the power roles in Sucession I were unrecruitable.

[Yosarian2]

Really rather not claim, for the reason I just gave. In sucession 1, certain power roles were recruitable, other power roles were not. Of course, it's not going to be exactly the same in this game, especially since the last one was unbalanced in favor of the cult, but let's just say I really want to keep the scum guessing about if I'm recruitable or not. It's not like I could have any useful information to share anyway, since I was roleblocked.

I'm guessing that it was a pro-town person that roleblocked me, too, since I was under some suspicion yesterday and since the odds of the scum recruiting a roleblocker on day 1 are probably slim, so that's probably verifiable, but of course we don't want any roleblockers to claim right now either.

[Yosarian2]

Yos 1331- Hmm. Didn't think about the whole, if we didn't lynch x yesterday we'd lynch him today. Though I disagree with the whole one day closer to losing (a mislynch pushed us, what, a day and a half closer?).

Not really. If we hadn't lynched, there'd be 24 people alive today and likely 4 cult, so if they both recruit every day, in 4 days we could be in a situation where less then half the people left are town. With 23 alive, it's the same number of days. It wouldn't have saved us a day at all. (And yeah, town theoretically *could* win in a situation where we're in the minority, but it's a longshot at *best*).

This isn't like dealing with a mafia. Having more townies alive doesn't really help at all in a cult game. Think about it. In which setup does the town have a better chance; 1 cult leader vs. 8 townies, or 1 cult leader vs. 50 townies? I think the town has a better chance in the first scenario. So it's *always* better to lynch then no lynch.

[Yosarian2]

I really don't get why people are voting me today. Of course, I really didn't get why people were voting for me yesterday either, so I guess that's not a surprise.

[Yosarian2]

Is the case against Yos that he targetted someone last night therefore he must be scum? Admittedly his defense is a bit shit what with the soft-claiming unrecruitable, but I don't see a reason to vote him based on the fact that he targeted someone alone.

I am not softclaiming anything. I am explaining, using publicly available facts, why we don't want me to claim a specific power role today. If this is anything like the last game, some power roles will be recruitable, and some will not be, and the scum are likely to figure out which is which at some point in the game.

I an quite deliberately NOT claiming, soft or hard or anything, weather I am recruitable or not. We do not want the scum to know who is and who is not recruitable. The only way town wins this game is if scum fails at recruitment more then half of the time while we lynch correctly basically every day, So we need the scum to fail some recruitment attempts, which means we need the scum to not be sure who is recruitable and who is not.

[Yosarian2]

To be fair, with most abilities, if she forgot to use it, it would hurt her side no matter if she was town or scum, so that's not really a tell either way.

I do think DGB was town day 1; I had a very strong town read on her then. Of course, that doesn't mean she's necessarily still town today, and I don't get the sudden change from being opposed to lynching me yesterday to being in favor of it today.

[Yosarian2]

Dripping goofball, you know, I specifically asked you to not do your kamikaze thing this game if you are town.

It's not a good move. I don't fully understand how this game is balanced, but even if cult fail to recruit 50% of the time, we basically have to lynch cult every day just to keep up. We can never afford to waste a day.

I'm not really buying Kinetic's story, either. If Kinetic knew what DGB's role was yesterday, why didn't he breadcrumb it so we'd believe him today? (and, no, "I know what your role is" isn't a breadcrumb).

[Yosarian2]

If DGb is lynched today, it won't be because townies are too willing to accept what the confirmed scum say.
It will be because her ego is crowding out the scumhunting.
Unless someone has an actual case against her, we should ignore this.

General thoughts on DGB:

I am 99% sure she was town yesterday.

She'd be one of the most desirable scum recruitment targets last night, since everyone thought she was town yesterday.

That being said, I have only seen her kamakazi and demand to be lynched as town before. She probably could do it as scum, but I haven't seen it happen.

The sudden change of behavior from yesterday to today (going from being opposed to my lynch at the end of the day yesterday to voting me at the start of the day today, for example) can be a sign of someone who's been recruited; sudden changes in behavior is one of the tells I'm looking for. All in all, though, I think we've got more likely suspects then her.

[Yosarian2]

You being targeted by the scum a lot isn't actually an argument in favor of you being town in this setup, fritzler.

[Yosarian2]

unvote

Vote:Cobbler

He fake-claimed unrecruitable yesterday because he was under pressure and wanted to get people to not vote him. When I pointed out that unrecruitables usually have another role, he hinted that he had another role. Today, he's now first unclaimed but pretended it was an accident, now he's saying he fakeclaimed.

I don't buy it. I think that he was the day 0 recruit, he just wanted to survive day 1 so he didn't totally screw things up for his cult, and that now he's dropping the claim before he's forced to go into more detail that would get him caught.

I know DGB was pushing for the "cobbler was a lying town who fakeclaimed unrecruitbable so he doesn't get recruited" theory, but that seems less likely to me. Much more likely is just "cobbler is a lying scum who didn't want to get lynched".

[Yosarian2]

You told everyone you were recruitable, which you do not know based on the information Flay gave you. There is obvious reasons why Flay would not answer that question either way under either assumption. You are N0 recruit. You deceived the town and provided information which you do not know.

Half-fakeclaiming isn't such a bad idea. Maybe you'll see if I get nightkilled.

So, he admits he was fakeclaiming, and now he's back to saying:

To the best of my knowledge I'm unrecruitable though.

Which is it, cobbler?

[Yosarian2]

The excuse you originally gave for fakeclaiming unrecruitable was that you thought other "teamsters" might also be unrecruitable. Now that we know that that was a lie, why did you claim unrecruitable, if not just to avoid being lynched?

[Yosarian2]

Cobble still doesn't look recruited. No cult is going to come out and say 'tehehe, I was lying to you guys on day one, let me spell my contradiction out for you to lynch me over'. It's town.

My guess is that he got scared after I mentioned how in the last game certain power roles were unrecrutable and certain power roles were not. Since he was lying, he didn't have enough information to fake a claim without knowing which roles in this game are unrecrutable. Therefore, he decided to back out of his claim while he still could.

That doesn't PROVE he's scum; DGB's "townie who fakeclaimed unrecruitable so as to not get recruited" theory could still apply here. It's still the most likely possibility, though.

[Yosarian2]

i already said i agree with cobbler being a derp case

Yesterday, the case on Cobbler was "He claimed unrecrutable in a situation where no town unrecrutable would have done so. It's likely he's lying scum."

Today, he admitted he was lying. He tried to excuse this with this weird "I don't know if I'm unrecrutable or not" stuff, but that's just silly; there's no way he looks at a role PM and just says "Welp, I guess I'm unrecruitable, even though it dosn't say anything like that anywhere in my role PM, and I guess that all other teamseters are probably unrecrutable to. Also, teamseters are public roles, and I'm going to randomally announce my theory that all teamsters are unrecrutable in front of the whole town right now just to make sure the cult know who the unrecrutables are."

I don't really get why, or even how, anyone is believing his story at this point.

[Yosarian2]

If Cobblerfone had been recruited, he'd be

coached

into

not

doing what he's doing.

Case closed.

...

So, your theory is that Cobbler's scum buddies would have said last night "Hey, buddy, whatever you do, don't admit you were lying and then let your entire fakeclaim and all your credibility fall apart"?

What Cobbler seems to be trying to do is actually a pretty reasonable scum technique; he's trying to gradually pull away from his fakeclaim now, to make the whole thing seem like some kind of misunderstanding, and to do so before he can be caught out on it. He's just not doing it very well. In any case, I think the only goal of his fakeclaim was to not be lynched on day 1, and it did accomplish that.

[Yosarian2]

....I think the only goal of his fakeclaim was to not be lynched on day 1, and it did accomplish that.

That only makes sense if we're looking for

recruiters

. We're not.

No, we're looking for a day 1 recruit who had only one goal on day 1. Survive until the end of the day, at any cost. If he had failed to do that, then his entire faction would be gone, because of the white flag rules.

[Yosarian2]

Cobber is not a recruit.

Yos, you're really stretching here - why would he announce this at D2 start given that he never may be called out on it? If I had lied to survive D1, I would just keep quiet about it as cult ..

Please, then, explain to me how he could possibly be telling the truth here. Explain to me how his story makes sense. I just don't see it.

[Yosarian2]

i really dont think a faction could lose the game if we lynched right day 1,

thats a big assumption you are making there yosa.

(shrug) The game rules are pretty clear, tajo.

Okay, apparently I didn't do as good a job of explaining this game as I thought.

Your "mob lieutenants" are the Cult Recruiters in this game - but the twist is they're Tree Stumps - you can't lynch them directly, but neither can they vote. Find and deal with their recruits, and once you strip their faction of power, they'll lose (the so-called White Flag rule).

Someone asked me for more specifics about White Flag as it relates to this game. Here's what I'll tell you:

A Scum Faction (and only scum) will autolose when it has one player left alive. This is to help account for the Mob Lieutenants who are unlynchable of course, and to help refocus the game away from the problem of 'you not only have to find the recruits, you have to find the recruiter in the right order'. Those of you who read the first Succession Mafia will recall what happened there.

Obviously town has problems when they're down to one player, too, it just works a different way.

If there was only one recruit on day 1, and we lynched that person, then that faction is gone. Only assumption I'm making is that there was only 1 person recruited night zero.

[Yosarian2]

Cobber is not a recruit.

Yos, you're really stretching here - why would he announce this at D2 start given that he never may be called out on it? If I had lied to survive D1, I would just keep quiet about it as cult ..

Please, then, explain to me how he could possibly be telling the truth here. Explain to me how his story makes sense. I just don't see it.

pretty sure you have seen a lot of vis making stupid things that dont make sense, huh yosa?

In my experience, when someone has a stupid claim that doesn't make sense, they are almost always lying.

[Yosarian2]

I'm going to policy lynch the next person who suggests a policy lynch.

Well, not really, but what part of "we have to lynch scum every day or we're screwed" is hard for people to understand here? We can't assume we'll necessarily have the normal 2-3 mislynches the town can always afford in a "normal" mafia game. For that matter, it's probably possible for town to lynch scum every day and still lose, if we get unlucky with other stuff.

[Yosarian2]

I would like an explanation for ML's posts.

This:

Seraphim is also highly likely scum at this point. I have information that pretty much confirms he is lying about what he did last night.

followed by this:

To whoever asked, I am trying to get as little information as possible from Seraphim and piece together my own role with what flay is telling me (note, he is being insanely cryptic) because its rather complex if Seraphim is in fact lying and if he is and I claim I want it to be a for sure scum lynch.

No part of outing a triangle of town sided roles if I am not correct makes sense.

is pretty confusing.

Also, a straight-out Serephem fake claim doesn't make that much sense here to me. If it's a fake claim, how did he know I targeted someone last night? It doesn't seem likely to me that that was just a blind guess.

[Yosarian2]

On the other hand, a Ludi fakeclaim doesn't make that much sense either. Why try to get Seraphim lynched? I mean, maybe if Ludi was in danger at that point it might make sense. I'll check.

+1

Meh, I donno. In theory, it might be worth it for a cult member to gambit or even sacrifice themselves to get a town power role lynched, especially if it's a role that they can't recruit for some reason. Town power role lynch followed by a recruit lynch, in two days, doesn't really work out to the town's favor. Of course, the disadvantage to that is that it puts their cult behind the other cult, so they might not want to do that.

It's really hard to say what a cult recruit might or might not do here. I just want ML to explain himself. Between his claim and Cobblerfone's claim, there's way too much stuff going on here that's just not making sense.

[Yosarian2]

We're limiting the lynch to the list I arbitrarily came up with because my guilty result was on one of the people from that list.

Wait...what?

Are you saying that you are a cop with a guilty, but you aren't going to tell us who you got a guilty on?

What the heck is going on in this game? Did everyone get "must talk in overly cryptic terms" as a post restriction or something?

[Yosarian2]

We've had, at my last count six different people doing seperate partial, confusing, limited, unclear, vague, or misleading power-roleclaims (which, yes, includes me, as I was forced to do a partial roleclaim by Serephem's partial roleclaim) . This game has become a complete clusterfuck, and if we're not careful, we might end up in one of those "accidental massclaim" situations which would be the WORST possible thing for the town to do on day two of a CULT game.

So, Hero, if you were serious about being a cop with a guilty on someone, just tell us who you got the guilty on so we can lynch whoever that is, get rid of a scum, and avoid any more quasi-role-claiming today. Everyone else, let's call a moratorium on claiming stuff for now. In that light, I'm going to temporally put off my demands for ML to explain himself; he will have to explain himself, but I'm starting to think that now might not be the time.

[Yosarian2]

^Um. No? ML claimed that Seraphim is lying dirtbag, but has taken it back due to unclearedness. If ML is town, then cult already know she is an investigative role. That's all the information they really need to determine if the slot is a threat or not. We, on the otherhand, do not have enough information to determine if she is lying cult or town or if seraphim is cult or town. What she claims she found out can help us, whereas it is already too late to not help the cult.

I suppose you're right; if ML is town now, and he actually has some useful information, we want to get his information today, instead of waiting until tomorrow when he might be recruited. So, yeah. If you actually have information, ML, please share it.

[Yosarian2]

Are you saying that you are a cop with a guilty, but you aren't going to tell us who you got a guilty on?

I have a cop result stating that porochaz is a recruit. I hadn't yet said whom my result was on, but that doesn't mean I wasn't planning to.

I think we should bank some time by lynching soon, now that my result is out.

Ok.

unvote

Vote:Porochaz

[Yosarian2]

Really? With the culture of fake claims and partial claims in this game alone let alone the site. I think its exactly what he would do if his lynch wasnt going his way.

How would you say that the "lynch wasn't going his way"?

The only way I could see that make sense would be if Hero was buddies with the person who probably would have otherwise been lynched today (Cobbler, IMHO) and wanted to derail that wagon. Even in that case, though, it dosn't seem like a bright move, considering how Cobbler will still be under a ton of suspicion in the future, and Hero was under basically no suspicion today.

[Yosarian2]

Magister would be a more likely candidate for derailment than Cobbler IMO.

Sure, that's equally possible. I guess the two wagons were about the same size before the cop claim.

Either way, though, it just doesn't seem that likely.

[Yosarian2]

Noone was interested in his list of people and the people he mentioned, me, bbm, ooba... were all questioning why. Look back through his posts before the claim, there isn't even a hint that he has a result its just sprung upon us. Is that the sign of someone with any information whatsoever?

Sure. If a cop has a guilty, and intends to claim it today, he's likely to try to see who defends that person when attacked without the claim first, to get more information.

[Yosarian2]

I believe ML's role claim, and do not have any information . Weather that says anything about his alignment or not is another question.

Serephim, if you got a "no result" from me on night 1, then why did demand to know what I was doing? That just forced me to claim information for no good reason.

[Yosarian2]

PPE: Doh, never finished writing the first sentence of that post. Should have said:

I believe ML's role claim, and do not have any information to contradict his claim.

[Yosarian2]

@Seraphim, what did you N2? Why did you not claim like yesterday?

I would like Yos to claim his current location first. Then I will claim my action.

You already got me to semi-claim my role by saying you had role-based information, now you're saying you actually had no information the whole time. I'm not really seeing why I should claim more information right now without some kind of explanation for something here.

[Yosarian2]

Upon reflection, I'm going to go with a

Vote:Seraphim

Based on the oddities of his claimed role info that he used to get me to claim, I think there's a fairly high chance that he was cult yesterday. Also, even if he wasn't, he went into the night last night as (basically) a claimed tracker (at least, I assumed that's what he was trying to claim yesterday), so even if he was town yesterday, there's a very high chance he was recruited last night.

[Yosarian2]

Based on the oddities of his claimed role info that he used to get me to claim

, I think there's a fairly high chance that he was cult yesterday. Also, even if he wasn't, he went into the night last night as (basically) a claimed tracker (at least, I assumed that's what he was trying to claim yesterday), so even if he was town yesterday, there's a very high chance he was recruited last night.

I can attest that there are no-oddities in his claim (fellow Junkies sticking together). I don't know if he was recruited or not though; I am leaning towards no ..

There were a number of people who claimed power roles yesterday. I'd be surprised if the cults didn't try to recruit them last night.

Of all of people who soft-claimed or whatever yesterday, Serephem and Hero are the two who were basically confirmed to have information roles. They're probably the two most likely recruitment targets last night. And I don't want to lynch Hero today, since he's a claimed cop who actually got us a scum yesterday.

[Yosarian2]

Flameaxe, how could Seraphim possibly know Yosarian was a targeting power role if its now been confirmed that when I jailkept Yosarian I roleblocked anyone actioning on Yosarian.

Plus your reads have changed from 'torn' to 'probably town' with no in between.

What I'm saying is that he never said he did know Yos was a targeting power. He asked for a target but never claimed anything of his own.

Do you think it's ok to demand to know who someone targeted last night if you don't have any role information?

The question implies information that he now claims he didn't have. If you want to split hairs, you can say he "wasn't lying", but he was certainly being dishonest.

[Yosarian2]

No, that's not true at all. I've been trying to mod my game, thank you very much.

I tracked Magister Ludi last night and only received a location. I am willing to claim this location if people want to. Yes, I am a tracker but I think something is funky with my role. For example, my night 1 PM was probably no result but the flavor heavily hinted that I was roleblocked but that I had received partial information. However, I do not think this is the case: I think the problem is on my end or I receive bad results. I did not get a target, only a location from Magister Ludi's travels.

I don't know if the other junkie(ooba, right?) has had similar problems if he has a PR.

Interesting.

Mm. The problem is is that if I claim location first, and then you say that ML either was or wasn't in that place, then we don't have any reason to believe you. I already think you're likely to be scum, so even if you do claim information that implies ML was lying, I won't trust you with it.

I was trying to think if there is a way we can simulclaim, but with this rule:

No strong cryptography or steganography in this game thread. Questions about what qualifies should be directed to me by PM.

I'm thinking probably not.

I think, at this point, you should probably claim where you saw ML go first. If that happens to be where I am, then I can confirm at least part of both your and ML claims at once (although, of course, it confirms neither of your alignments.)

[Yosarian2]

Eh. Even if Sera is telling 100% truth about his claim, he's still the most logical person to be recruited.

By the way, the bread crumb is accurate, which is interesting, but he could have guessed that my home base serves food just from looking at the fact that I'm listed as a "cook" in the first mod post. I'm a little fuzzy on why he dosn't want to claim the actual numerical location; can you explain that, Seraphim?

I could be persuaded to shift over to Yos.

Why is that?

You do realize that I'm probably less likely to be a recruit then almost anyone else in the game, since I was apparently protected by a jailkeeper for the past two nights, right?

[Yosarian2]

Good news is that Ludi is town, which means Yosa is also town that gives me more room for PoE.

(shrug) It's theoretically possible Ludi is recruited scum who jailkept me last night to roleblock me because I said I had a power role on day 1. It's not really that likely, though, since he'd be more likely to block Hero in that case. ML seems pretty town to me right now.

[Yosarian2]

So, you thought Yos targetted someone... you don't even consider Yos was a PR using his ability? I'm voting you because no way you'd do something so stupid.

I thought he was a recruit, dude. Why do you think I targeted him in the first place?

Dinkeldorf's Deli, location 26.

(nods) Yes.

Eh. Even if Sera is telling 100% truth about his claim, he's still the most logical person to be recruited.

Explain.

I didn't make that clear, I intended to say "the most logical person to be recruited *LAST NIGHT*".

I would be surprised if the cults didn't try to recruit people who claimed power roles yesterday. In the first succession mafia game, the recruited power roles played a significant role in the cult victory. The claimed power roles yesterday would be me, ML, you, and Hero (and kinda cobbler, but he dosn't really fit. Cobbler might have been recruited night zero, I still think that's quite possible based on his weird day 1 claim-ish-stuff, but if he wasn't recruited night zero, he probably wasn't recruited any time after that, between all the votes on him and the partly-taken-back unrecruitable claim.)

ML says he can confirm Hero is still town. ML seems town to me at this point. If we're *really* lucky, it's theoretically possible that both cults tried to recruit me last night and both failed because of the jailkeeper, but while that'd be both funny and awesome, it's not that likely. If the cults recruited one of the claimed power roles last night, and I think they probably did, then you are the most likely suspect.

[Yosarian2]

Hey, just got back from the holiday weekend.

Looks like the first thing to do is ISO read Katsuki.

[Yosarian2]

Well, that was remarkably easy to do.

Her play for the entire first month of the game was to lurk and keep her vote on me for no reason (short of a really lame WIFOM one). The only time she stopped voting for me was at the end of day 1 when she moved her vote for the townie Chrono, for no reason at all. She had listed him as a suspect earlier, but never gave any reason for it at all. Then she moves it back to me, then to Xvart for a weak reason ("making a vig list is anti-town"), and then back to Chono. She dosn't give a good reason for any of these votes. Then at the start of day 2, without even commenting on the mislynch, she goes right back to voting me for no reason, and keeps that vote on until June 28th. She never commented on the Poro scum lynch at all.

Then, she moved her vote to DGB without really giving a reason for that (only reason she gave was some weak comment about he DGB/cult recruiter interactions, without explaining what that meant or how it made DGB scum). She's defended Cobbler, but otherwise really not commented on most of the people in the game.

All in all, very weak, scummy, active-lurker play, and a series of bad, scummy votes with bad reasons. Yeah, she looks like likely scum to me at this point.

unvote

Vote:Katsuki

[Yosarian2]

Yosarian, the fact I consider you more probably town than anyone in the game besides Herod I'd like to know your thoughts. I have a hard time seeing DGB as town here, and Katsuki is pushing heavy against DGB.

My vote will probably wind up on DGB because this Seraphim wagon is going nowhere (for unknown reasons). Do you think DGB is not cult recruited scum as this stage?

Eh. None of DGB's play so far seems especially scummy to me; I could see her doing everything she's done as town.

I can say that she probably was not recruited night zero, I can almost guarentee she was town day 1. She was also probably not last night, since the scum probably went for power roles last night, and since she was attacked pretty significantly yesterday. It is possible could have been a night 1 recruit, but that's the only time I can see her being recruited.

I'm basically ignoring the Kinetic claims at this point.

To sum up, I think she's more likely town then scum at this point.

Also, what is your read on Springlullaby and Flameaxe, two other players I consider highly likely cult recruit.

I don't have a problem with Flameaxe's play. The only thing that's really notable about Flameaxe is a possible connection today with Seraphim; if Seraphem is currently a cult recruit, then Flameaxe is a possible partner; he defended Seraphem a few times, and when I asked him a question about that defense, he didn't (yet) answer me. None of Flameaxe's posts look independently scummy to me, though; in general, I get a good vibe from him, and most of his thought processes make a lot of sense to me. If Seraphin flips scum, I want to take another look at Flameaxe, but unless and until that happens he's not high on my list of suspects.

Springlullaby, I'm not as happy about. She isn't voting anyone right now, and hasn't really done any scumhunting on day 3 at all. Her voting record before that isn't great either; all game, she's voted you, me, TheAdmeral, and Tanarin. Out of those 4, the only vote that I like is Tanarin, for having a "bad ISO", and that's kind of a pot/kettle thing anyway. I could see her as possible scum.

[Yosarian2]

PPE: I made a whole big analysis post here listing my top 11 (!) suspects, based on behavior, meta, day certain people were likely to be recruited, ect. Then I thought about it, decided that describing in that much detail my thoughts about half the town at this point was a really bad idea that would just help the cult, and deleted the whole thing. So, yeah.

[Yosarian2]

Don't worry Yos2. Who, besides Katsuki, did you pin as the second most likely recruit, though?

mm. Well, I didn't order it like that, exactly.

Let me just give some highlights from my analysis.

I still think Serephem is very likely to have been recruited night 2, on the assumption that scum were very likely to try to get claimed power roles last night.

I still think Cobbler is fairly likely to have been recruited night zero, based on the scummy way he claimed day 1 and then semi-unclaimed day 2.

Tajo is pretty high on my list; he makes sense as a recruit pretty much any night so far this game for meta reasons (IE: he's an experienced player who's not that high profile, and he has really never gotten much pressure at any point in the game), and his behavior seems a little off. I'm having trouble explaining just what is off about his behavior, though, other then the fact I don't agree with much of what he's done.

Also, I've got an eye on all the lurkers (and there are several of them); I would expect a recruit to lurk more then a townie.

[Yosarian2]

Tajo is pretty high on my list; he makes sense as a recruit pretty much any night so far this game for meta reasons (IE: he's an experienced player who's not that high profile, and he has really never gotten much pressure at any point in the game),

lolwtf are you talking about. Im in pretty much everyone's list for those exact reasons.

I just looked at all of Mr. Flay's vote counts in the game, and most of them, you had either zero votes or one vote on you. There was a brief period of time during day 1 when you had 2 votes on you, but that was the highest you ever went, as far as I can tell.

So, yeah, I call that basically no pressure. If scum was looking for someone experienced who was not and had never been in significant danger of a lynch, you would defiantly qualify.

[Yosarian2]

I am a little weirded out by the way DGB pushing the theory that some cult member tried to recruit her and failed, especially since she's not claiming unrecruitaable here. Her case against Tanarin in post #2215 makes some sense, but the way she really seems to think a cult recruiter (actually, Kinetic specifically) tried to recruit her and failed bugs me.

[Yosarian2]

:eyebrow:

Of course I want to lynch cultists, DGB. Do you want to lynch cultists?

I'm not even VOTING for you right now. You going back into full kamakazi mode here over me saying that seems like a complete overreaction.

I mean, if you had just said "who the hell knows why Kinetic is saying stuff, he's scum trying to screw with us, we should just ignore him", then I'd be fine with that. But you apparently taking seriously the idea that Kinetic tried to recruit you and failed does make me wonder if that means you're in Albert's cult. Of course it does; you'd be wondering the same thing if I had said something like that, and you know it.

Now, like I said, I'm not voting for you; you could very well be a townie taking a risk here, and you're really not in my top 5 suspects at the moment. But if you're town, and you want us to take you seriously as town, then you need to help us lynch cultists, and not get so offended about a little paranoia. If you didn't want to deal with people getting paranoid, then why did you join a cult game?

[Yosarian2]

It's the combo of NS frittering the Katsuki wagon away, and you concurring (without a vote) that I may just be culted after all.

This wagon was such an uphill battle. I knew that if Katsuki didn't show up, that the ADD players would see a shiny object and squander the wagon.

You've got Katsuki lurking to victory, and the completely useless NS berating me for TRYING TOO HARD - by unvoting Lurk-To-Victory Katsuki, and voting me. It's exasperating.

(shrug) I have been defending you as likely town for most of the day, but your post 2215 bugs me.

That being said, I'm still voting for Katsuki. Almost everyone is still voting for Katsuki. I have trouble seeing anyone other then Kat being lynched today. So you unvoting him in order to self vote seems pretty counterproductive, if your goal is to lynch him.

If your goal is to threaten to self destruct in order to scare people away from ever questioning or doubting you at all, then I have less sympathy for you.

[Yosarian2]

Yes, yes, kat is obv scum. So why aren't you voting for him?

[Yosarian2]

FOS Yosarian

for oddly showing zero curiosity about stuff.

What do you mean?

@YOS, what do you think of Seraphim now?

Pretty sure I just said that. I think the scum probably tried to recruit town power roles last night, and he's the most likely one (since ML seems very town, and he's confirming Hero to still be town). I do now believe his claim, and think he was likely town yesterday, but he's likely to be scum now.

[Yosarian2]

I'd rather watch Spring hang.

But Katsuki is stalling claim... he does a disappearing act and his wagon fritters away?

I have to think about this.

I really think Kat needs to die here. I just don't see him as being at all town here, based on his behavior so far this game.

[Yosarian2]

Ok, some thoughts for the new day:

DGB is town today. Only reason I doubted her yesterday was her reaction to Kinetic's stuff, but that could have only made her a possible ABR recruit.

I don't really get what Battousai is doing. If a iffy night action was committed at the bank last night, and a claimed tracker asks you "were you at the bank last night", why would you refuse to answer? That being said, the SL kill last night was likely to be a vig kill; the scum in sucession I could kill instead of recruiting if they chose, but if they were going to do that, why SL? Also, if he's a vig, we can't afford to lynch him; our best bet of winning this game involves lynching cult recruits at day AND shooting them at night, taking them out faster then Kinetic can recruit them. If we have a lynch and a vig, and if the scum recruitment sometimes fails due to unrecrutables or whatever, we've got a good chance.

I'm also a little confused about why Serpehem asked DGB to claim, she said "I targeted someone but didn't go anywhere", and then he dropped the subject. Huh? That's not how I would expect a tracker to respond. Something weird is going on with him.

I like both the Tajo and the Darox wagona. I agree with DGB's assessment of both of their ISO's, in fact.

Vote:tajo

[Yosarian2]

Hey Magister Ludi,

Can you iso yourself?

It would save me a lot of work. I trust your self-report.

ML is probably town. I can confirm that he jailkept me again last night.

[Yosarian2]

Yos- He hasn't linked me there, he is only assuming I wasn't there because the mod flavor said SL was alone. Which makes sense as how could anyone kill SL if SL wasn't alone.

Ah, I get it now. This line of questioning was based on your job as a bank clerk, right?

[Yosarian2]

ML is probably town. I can confirm that he jailkept me again last night.

How does that make him non-recruit?

If he had gotten recruited, wouldn't he be blocking the claimed cop or something now instead?

Anyway, you can't lynch him. He's the guy who's keeping me town.

[Yosarian2]

You don't stick your cult in the crazy NS, you don't stick your cult in the crazy.

Looking at his ISO, Tanarin dosn't look especially crazy to me on day 1. He makes cases, asks questions, votes fairly aggressively, usually giving reasons for his votes, and generally doesn't look bad.

Day 1 ends on June 14th. Look at Tanarin's posts from the start of day 2 onwards. Suddenly he gets a lot lurkier, his posts get shorter, he a lot less aggressive, and basically gives no reasons for his votes.

That kind of sudden change can very well mean someone just got recruited.

[Yosarian2]

also lol at the accusation I could be distancing with Tanarin/Darox when IVE BEEN WANTED HIM TO DIE since FREAKING DAY 1.

Hypothetical question, Tajo. If you were town and were attacking person X, and then later you got recruited and it turned out that you were now scum with person X, would you suddenly stop attacking person X on the spot, obvious way, or would you continue to "attack" him in order to avoid making any obvious connections or changes in behavior?

In a cult game, I don't think "I've been attacking person X all game so we can't possibly be scum together today" is really a strong argument.

[Yosarian2]

Now what would be the fun in that?

If you weren't going to fullclaim, then why did you claim at all?

Did you read through this game and decide "Hey, you know what this game needs? More vague softclaims that give the town no information and do nothing useful at all!"

[Yosarian2]

Yosarian2, i guess its basically the same thinkign process you make in normal games where you have to spot the difference between town attacking scum and scum bussing scum, with the exception that in this case, a lynch on a recruit could have costed the game on day 1.

tell me whats more damning:

a) tajo constantly attacking tanarin.
b) dgb not attacking tanarin and then doing it when people start to find him scummy. (this is even scummier since tanarin was doing something that according to dgb was a scumtell at the time: tunneling against her.).

a) I don't think that you attacking tanarin is scummy at all. I'm just saying that I don't think that if he flips scum, it confirms you as town, or that if you flip scum that it confirms him as town. Something like the hypothetical I'm talking about here happened in succession I, in fact; someone was attacking Yos-cult all game, we recruited him, and he kept attacking me after he was recruited because he thought doing otherwise would be a dead giveaway.

b) Eh. In a large game, there's so many moving parts and it's hard to keep track of everyone, it's not surprising that semi-lurkers slide under the radar for a while, but then when people have their attention drawn to that person, that then they think that person is scummy. So, no, I don't really have a problem with DGB taking a closer look at tanarin in response to people finding him scummy, and not liking what she sees.

Anyway, all that being said, I am thinking Darox looks a little worse then you do right now.

Unvote:Tajo

Vote: Darox

. I'd be fine with either wagon going ahead, though.

PPE: Oh, I think hero just claimed a guilty. Awesome.

Unvote

for now, since I agree with the "no quick lynches" logic.

[Yosarian2]

(shrug) If bvoigt is waiting for a clear, unambiguas claim from hero, that's fine; we've had too much vagueness in this game.

So, here's the plan. First, Hero clearly and unambiguously states that he has a guilty on bvoigt. Then bvoigt can claim, if he wants, and then we lynch bvoigt.

[Yosarian2]

I'm thinking this over. If we have enough unrecruitable people claim, and heord investigates each of them down the line to confirm, and we start speedlynching and vigging through the list of non-unrecruitable people, (with other power roles helping out town), does town auto-win?

Problem 1: We really want the scum to fail to recruit some of the time. That really improves our odds of winning a straight race, which this is now that we have one cult recruiter. In order to do that, we don't want them to know who they can recruit and who they can't.

Problem 2: It sounds like you're assuming that in a mass claim, if we have several unrecruitable claims, that we won't see any cult recruits lie and claim to be unrecruitable. This is probably not a good assumption.

Anyway, since we apparently don't actually have a guilty, time to get back on the wagon.

Vote: Darox

[Yosarian2]

So, Darox, you want to comment on the case I made against the person you replaced? Especally the part I pointed out about the huge difference in the way he played on day 1 and the way he played on day 2.

[Yosarian2]

Really not liking the DGB wagon right now. I really don't see any reason to think her behavior makes more sense as cult then as town.

I agree that Seraph looks pretty iffy today, and like I said yesterday, I think there's a high chance he was recruited on night 2 or so. That being said, my first choice for today is still Darox; I his predecessor reeeally looks like he was culted.

Yos, I don't see how I can be expected to account for a change in personality of someone I am not. I don't know anything more about his motivations than you do. They look pretty equally absurd across the board though, rather than some sudden shift on D2. I guess I can see the angle that made him want to vote DGB, but everything else is a mystery to me.

You don't see a sudden shift on day 2?

Day 1, he attacked, by my count, 6 different people (including me). He was very agressivly scumhunting, posting fairly often, and making sense doing it.

Here are some examples of day 1 scumhunting attacks he made:

OK, there has been one thing that has been on my mind, Cobblefone's mysterious claim. (For reference post #237.) I see no reason why a townie at all would claim the one trump card we really have right off the bat for no reason at all. That same post also comes put as if he is fishing for more info on another person's role (xvart's role in this case.) Now there is a chance he is indeed assuming xvart is the same role wise as cobble, but judging from his reaction, I am not getting that at all.

Going back to the mysterious unrecruitable claim, what reasons would a town under very little pressure at all WANT to claim he is unrecruitable? If anything wouldn't he want to play really, really town and try to draw possibly both recruit attempts N1? Something really just does not add up in my mind if he is town.

Vote cobblefone

I'm no liking how thAdmadral is suddenly changing up HOW he is calculating his list based on "weight". Notice how it basically made it so Chrono would HAVE to be lynched by his logic. This is AFTER people were deciding that xvart may indeed be a good lynch. Cult looking for a myslynch? I think so.

Unvote Vote Thadmral

Ok it is post like xvart's last post that really make me feel like he is not part of a cult at this point. As was pointed out before, most of the main case against Xvart was the fact he was most likely a recruit choice and it pretty much has stuck all game.

Unvote

@Yos2: Ok you believe Cobbler is scum, yet you are on xvart? Still feel that is the right place to put your vote?

They all makes sense, right? Even if I don't agree with some of it, it all looks like pretty reasonable scumhunting. And that's just a few examples; he did a lot of scumhunting on day 1.

Now look at his "cases" after day 1.

Vote Ludi

Not to sound like a parrot, but basically what batt said is my thoughts exactly.

Unvote Vote Porochaz

I think the solution is pretty simple here. if Hero is lying, he is dead one way or another tomorrow. If he isn't we go from there.

He basically stopped scumhunting himself at all, and just made weak bandwagon votes based on other's logic. His posts got shorter and less meaningful, and he posted less often.

Everyone, just take a look at his posts in ISO. Remember that day 1 ended on June 14th. You can basically draw a "before" and "after" line right through his ISO on that date; it's as clear as night and day. His posting suddenly changed completely overnight, and he went from an active, aggressive scumhunter to a quiet, lurky, under-the-radar bandwagoner.

[Yosarian2]

Let's ignore the fact that once Herodotus claimed all scumhunting was basically quashed, and say sure, his posts suddenly dropped in both number and quality after day one. However, on day three, he drops off even further, to the point that he replaces out. Did he get recruited again for 2x lurkerscum combo? Or was he just slowly flaking out by being overwhelmed by this 100+ page game? It broke 50 pages before day one finished.

(shrug) Perhaps he cared less about the game because he didn't like being culted. Or perhaps he started off tactically lurking, then fell behind and eventually stopped posting.

[Yosarian2]

DGB is still town. Even though I've long ago given up trying to figure out how her scumputer works.

[Yosarian2]

I don't trust claims (and I mean information claims, and have always meant information claims) in a cult game because of one substantial reason. Recruiting a cop and using his ability to influence the town ended up being a main reason my cult won Succession 1. I'll have my suspicions on any player who trusts a claim this late in the game.

Again, I'll state that during this whole mess, Hero hadn't actually claimed a guilty on anyone in particular, and having my annoyance turn towards suspicion for the continuing the trend of softclaiming in this game really shouldn't seem all too farfetched.

What are your thoughts on ML's claim, then? Especially the part where ML claimed that his role had the ability to know if Hero gets recruited.

[Yosarian2]

So...tajo, is your theory that Hero and ML are both scum together, or what?

[Yosarian2]

HOWEVER. There is a clause in my role that suggests that certain conditions on the part of my target will make my stalking less than subtle, which may alert either my target or any aggressors, and/or do... something. I'm not sure, the aggressor could decide to back off instead of attack, my target might evade my protection, it's not clear and probably depends on the roles involved.

I'm not a Jailkeeper. All I do is prevent violence. All non violent acts would still proceed normally.

Considering I can protect not only one target, but also everyone in the same location, I'd think the role was overpowered if it wasn't for culting.

So, you're claiming you prevent night kills, but not cult recruiting, but sometimes it fails, and you can protect other people in the same location? Do I have that right?

[Yosarian2]

Yeah, the claim is plausable, considering that there were roles that only protected against night kills in succession 1 as well. That being said, it dosn't actually have anything to do with his alignment, and it's not an especially relevant power role in this game. I don't think it really changes anything.

On the other hand, if someone could confirm that he targeted Hero the last two nights, then I would be willing to unvote Darox.

[Yosarian2]

On the other hand, if someone could confirm that he targeted Hero the last two nights, then I would be willing to unvote Darox.

Why? You said yourself that his role does not relate to his alignment.

Roles do not relate to alignment, and unlike some role claims, a kill-doctor is low value enough to the town that it doesn't change my willingness to lynch. However, if a doctor had been recruited, he probably would not protect the claimed cop, assuming Hero is still town.

Basically, I think that Darox is likely telling the truth about being a kill-doctor, but he is probably lying about his night 2 and night 3 targets. (He could very well be telling the truth about targeting DGB night 1; like I said, I think he was probably recruited night 1, so he probably submitted his choice before that.)

However, if anyone can confirm that he is telling the truth about his night 2 and night 3 targeting, and if his targeting the cop didn't have any obvious ill effects on the cop (IE: the cop wasn't roleblocked or whatever), then I'm going to reconsider my scum read on him.

[Yosarian2]

So...tajo, is your theory that Hero and ML are both scum together, or what?

I dont see how Heroscum means ML is scum??

I know this has already been answered by a few people, but just to make sure we're all on the same page, this was part of ML's original claim:

The second ability pertains to Herod. Because we 'work the beat' together (cops), I know if he has been recruited that night or not. As it stands he has not been recruited on night one or night two.

[Yosarian2]

Blah not paying attention. It wasn't a anti-recruitment doctor that Darox is. But this is wifom, but its possible, if the cult have an ability to kill maybe it can only kill players that are town.

That doesn't really make sense, from a setup standpoint. With a few exceptions (unrecruitable townies mostly) each cult is going to want to recruit townies and/or kill members of the other cult; cults don't especally want to kill townies. (Sure, if a cult recruited a vig or something, they wouldn't mind killing a few townies, but it's not really a priority). Again, in succession I, cults were able to give up their recruit to attempt to kill, but really the only reason for them to do that was in order to go after the other cult.

[Yosarian2]

Hey, I just got back from V/LA, will try to catch up now.

[Yosarian2]

Just starting to catch up now, but...I'm really opposed to a mass claim, pretty much ever. We need the cult recruiter to fail some of the time, otherwise even if we lynch cult every day from now until the end of the game we still could lose lose. In order for the cult recruiter to fail some of the time, we need unrecruitables, and possibly cult doctors and vigs as well, to stay hidden for basically the rest of the game. We can really never afford a true mass claim, at any point in this game.

[Yosarian2]

Yeah, ooba, Yosarian got the ol' jail treatment on nights one through four.

I can confirm i was jailkept again last night.

[Yosarian2]

Why are people claiming? Argh

[Yosarian2]

Damn it all. Why did people just start claiming without thinking through what a massclaim would actually mean?

[Yosarian2]

People pushing for a mass claim today: pretty sure we'll find cult within this group.

I would be up for a massclaim.

Let's try this again:

Vote: FlameAxe

I would be okay with a mass claim too.

I think a massclaim is a <good idea>.

I am in favor of a massclaim.

Vote: tajo

I am in favor of a massclaim.

Vote: NS

I don't mind if we mass claim

Vote: Tajo

Vote: Cobble

Something wants me to do this again. My guess is post 2948. I am also in favor of a massclaim. I'm always in the mood for a massclaim. [/pieisgood]

Out of that group, we're defiantly not lynching Lady Lamada today, the claimed unrecruitable-cult doc. We can't risk that.

[Yosarian2]

Why are people claiming? Argh

I feel your pain.

But it may also be too late at this point. With half of the players having claimed already, do you think it would be a good idea to continue, or to hold further claims?

We need to stop claiming. I'm hoping that there is likely to be at least one more unclaimed unrecruitable townie, and it is absolutely imperative that the cult does not know who that is, at all cost.

[Yosarian2]

15 players left, up to 5 cult. If we lynch wrong and cult hit, we're at 14 players and 6 cult, which is LYLO. (not to mention the fact our vigs have been absolutely godawful this game, {if they're still aligned with town}.)

I'm almost in favor of a massclaim here.

Yos: Is there any reason you skipped over the first person to actually mention the massclaim?

yeah, good catch, I missed that. ML is fairly likely to be town here, though.

[Yosarian2]

I am a Townie with the visit ability. My job is to transport things for the local businesses. I've lived in the Quay for my entire life and have seen the ups and downs but this is the worst it has been, even worse than another time. I don't want to see my home run into the ground.

Bunnylover is next.

Bunnylover or Flameaxe - go...

No. No more claims, period.

In fact:

Vote:Ooba

[Yosarian2]

We're finishing the claims (minus the unrecruitable part of it) ...

Why would we want to do that? How would that help us at this point?

It might be worth hearing who Hero's innocents are at this point, since that'll help us lynch correctly today, but we really don't need or want any MORE claims at this point.

[Yosarian2]

I don't really get why people are voting for bvoigt here.

We've got two people claiming to be unrecrutable cult docs. They may both be telling the truth. At least one of them probably is. Either way, unless we've got REALLY strong evidence that they're lying, we can't afford to lynch either of them, because we need some way to stop recruitments in order to not lose. If there is one unrecrutible cult doc, and we lynch him, town probably loses. If there are two, we obviously don't want to lynch either of them. Either way, I think we need to let them live today, we can't risk lynching either of them right now.

Even if one of the two of them is lying cult, there are other cult to find today. Let's go after them.

[Yosarian2]

am I wrong in the assumption that this is some kind of lylo and if we lynch wrong its likely gg?

that was the idea behind the massclaim, right? correct me if Im wrong.

I don't see how it could be. Cult has at most 5 recruits right now, right? Probably less, with multiple unrecruitables, a jailkeeper, and possibly multiple cult docs, they've probably failed once or twice. There are still 15 people left alive.

Now, if the scum never failed to recruit, if there's another person recruited tonight, and vigs (or whatever) shoot two more townies, then we could theoretically be in a 6 scum vs. 7 town situation tommorow, but that's pretty unlikely.

[Yosarian2]

Yos- Is against it, because he doesn't believe we are at 5:10 (which is the day before lylo). There is a possibility that it is at 5:10. Play safe!

It doesn't matter. Even in lynch or lose, massclaim is still a really bad idea in this setup.

[Yosarian2]

Cobblerfone: I'm not really sure I understand this plan. If you are planning on directing the claimed cult docs, the jailkeeper, and the vigs, then won't the cult know who they can recruit with complete safety? What am I missing here?

[Yosarian2]

Yeah, that still dosn't get us past the fact that if you tell the cult docs who to recruit, the cult will simply recruit someone else. If the cult recruits every night, we lose, even if we lynch right every day. (We could theoretically win if we lynch right and vig right every day, but counting on that is really, really iffy at best).

Also, your plan seems to be assuming that everyone who's claimed is both telling the truth and is still town, which is, uh, iffy at best.

We need to lynch cult, but we need to do it without directing the cult docs and the jailkeeper, because we need the cult recruitment to fail some of the time.

[Yosarian2]

EBWOP: should obviously have been "who to protect". You know what I mean.

[Yosarian2]

Well, one big problem with your plan, Cobbler, is that if you tell the jailkeeper and the cult docs to not protect me, and then tell the cop to investigate me, there is nothing stopping the cult from recruiting me tonight, after the cop gets his innocent. That leaves me as a "confirmed innocent" who is actually cult.

There's really no way to protect all the key people in your plan from both recruitments and nightkills at the same time.

[Yosarian2]

Mmm. Cobbeler's plan of directing the cult docs and the vig and the doctor and the jailkeeper and the watcher would result in a town loss almost 100% of the time, I think. We would get a few temporary confimred innocents, but be guaranteeing that the cult recruit one person every night, period, and they could still just kill off the key power roles.

At this point, I'm just trying to figure out if Cobbler is a townie pushing a bad plan, or a cultie who's trying to make the town lose. Cobbler's claim kind of stands out as fairly unlikely to be real as well, it doesn't really match anyone else's claim or make any sense in a cult game.

[Yosarian2]

Mmm. Cobbeler's plan of directing the cult docs and the vig and the doctor and the jailkeeper and the watcher would result in a town loss almost 100% of the time, I think. We would get a few temporary confimred innocents, but be guaranteeing that the cult recruit one person every night, period, and they could still just kill off the key power roles.

A cult being able to recruit and kill in the same night? You tired? Help me come up with a better plan then. Help me fix it.

No, not in the same night. I'm saying that if your plan would actually somehow work, which it wouldn't, the cult could just kill the key power roles instead. We've got one claimed kill-doctor (and possibly mr. Z? i don't know what he's claiming, really) and one jailkeeper, and you want to direct both of them.

I don't think any plan that involves directing the power roles is a good idea. Right now, if both cult docs are telling the truth (which is still a pretty big if; I don't think the theory conspiracy is talking about that the cult might have gotten unrecruitable cult-doc as a safe-claim is all that improbable), then the cult would have to be REALLY careful trying to recruit any of the "high value" targets, or they might fail. This works in our favor. Directing any of the power roles just makes it easier for the cult.

What we should do is just try to lynch cult during the day, and avoid discussing who's going to target who at all, to keep the cult guessing.

[Yosarian2]

This game is giving me a headache.

Ok. Suspects:

Tajo: Claimed kill doctor. Probably recruitable though. May have been recruited fairly early, in fact; he's been one of my main suspects for most of the game.

Xvart: He was under pretty heavy attack from day 1, so I kind of doubt he was recruited later. Could have been recruited night zero, I suppose. He's been lurking for most of the game, which I don't like, but I did like his most recent post.

Cobbler: Claimed unrecruitable day 1 for absoltuly no reason with minimal pressure. Unclaimed it day 2. Is currently claiming to be a "bomb", which dosn't seem to make much sense at all in a cult game, and isn't anything like any of the other claims we've seen. Is proposing a plan that seems extremly anti-town to me. I think he's likely been cult since day 1.

Zdenek: Has been fairly inactive all game. Claimed "pharmacist", with a "50% chance of succeeding at protecting someone". Hasn't clarified what that means, but it doesn't really make any sense either. Why would Flay put in one single role with percentage chance of success into a game like this with no other roles like that? That would be a REALLY odd decision. I think he's probably lying cult as well.

I think that both Cobbler and Zdenek are probably cult. I'd be fine lynching either of them.

Vote:Zdenek

[Yosarian2]

@Yos: So, do xvart and Cobbler both seem like N0 recruits to you?
Also, I would suggest a Bunnylover vig, but that's just my 2 cents.

I think Xvart is either a night zero recruit, or he's probably town. I think that means he's probably town.

Cobbler seems like a more likely night zero recruit, yeah. I'm really not buying "bomb" claim. I'm also not buying the idea that he was told he was a bomb and somehow thought this meant he was unrecruitable. What, did he think Kinetic would blow up if he tried to recruit him?

[Yosarian2]

This is where I stand on xvart from his actions (nevermind that I disagree with some of the stuff he posted)

Facts:

1. Day one, came under heavy attack.
2. About Half his posts are from day one
3. Has posted the other half over the remaining four days
4. Has taken to posting larger 'catch-up' style posts in the interim

Ok. So, does that mean he's cult, or does it mean he's been busy and has been having trouble keeping up with the game? (shrug) Most people will post more when they're under attack in general.

I don't really have any problem with most of his content, and it seems like we have worse lurkers if that's the metric you're going by.

[Yosarian2]

I'd say Zdenek is a worse lurker, for one. He only has about half the total posts Xvart has, he's said significantly less in those posts, and he's lurking right now.

PPE: lol at him simulposting me.

[Yosarian2]

"Simulposting" does not include a gap of three minutes. Try again?

It does when I take a few minutes before I hit submit to double check someone's posting history.

[Yosarian2]

People have to ask why I'm voting NS?

NS claimed the Andrius kill.

Fair enough, that would be a pretty weird choice for a vig.

So what's your theory? Are you suggesting NS is actually mafia/SK/something else? Do you think that the cult killed Andrius night 2? If NS killed Andrius (or at least knew for a fact that no one would counterclaim the kill), then how does that make NS scum?

[Yosarian2]

Ah. So you think he really is a vig, but is a recruited vig?

[Yosarian2]

Heh. I wasn't actually pushing a SK theory, I was trying to understand your thought process, and how you got from "he claimed a kill I disagreed with" to "he's scum".

The idea of a recruited vig is pretty terrifying. In the last game, the one-shot vigs were unrecruitable but didn't know it; who knows if that's true again this game.

[Yosarian2]

Eh, xvart could be scum, I suppose. I must say, though, I really dislike the excuse in post 3265 that Zdenek gave for voting him:

So Xvart is scummy for *knowing* that Cobblerfone is scum and then using that flip to line up Flameaxe's lynch. Of course Cobbler is probably town, so that implication won't apply, and is really just an attempt by Xvart to distance himself from Flameaxe.

Either of them can go today. Since there is more support for Xvart's lynch, I'll go there for now.

Vote Xvart

As reasons for voting someone goes, that one is pretty terrible, all around. It sounds like he's voting Xvart because he thinks Xvart is linked to Flameaxe, but we don't even know Flameaxe's alignment at this point, Zdenek hasn't even really made a case against Flameaxe. All in all, this just sounds to me like he's voting Xvart out of pure self preservation, he just wants to push a wagon that's not him/

[Yosarian2]

OOba: Fine, fine, you can say I've been defending Xvart and might be scum if he is, that makes logical sense. What it dosn't do is explain why you're voting for him, like at all. Nothing in your post does. You analyze 8 people and then vote for someone you don't even mention anywhere else in your post.

This is really the biggest reason why I just can't get behind the Xvart wagon here. Scummy looking people (Ooba, Zdenek, ect) just keep getting on the bandwagon for really weak excuses. It could be a bussing, but considering how few mislynches the town can afford here, I'm really thinking the whole cult is just pushing for a mislynch here.

[Yosarian2]

maybe, though that depend on the size of the cult right now. How many do you think there are?

At most 5; 3 or 4 is more likely. We probably lose if we make 2-3 more mislynches.

I think this is the xvart wagon:

Magister Ludi, Cobblerfone, Bunnylover,

Amrun

, Zdenek, ooba

Now I guess it could be possible that there is a ton of cult on there. Though to analyze who is cult before xvart flips one way or the other is illogical, if he flips cult then everyone on this wagon looks a lot better.

The order of voting is really important here; the thing that really bothers me is the way that 2 people on top of my scum list (Zdenek and ooba) jumped onto a large bandwagon without giving any reasons that make sense. That looks like a group of scum pushing for a mislynch to me, possibly in order to prevent the competing bandwagon (Zdenek, in this case) from succeeding.

~~~~

@Yos

Also, I was considering doing something with my jailkeeping tonight. Have someone else and you as my choices, and then flip a coin and choose which person to jailkeep. It has the potential of out WIFOMing Kinetic, and blocking a recruit since he won't know where I'm going, and if you have a power-role that is powerful enough to help the town, you have a chance to use it.

Yeah, that's fine. I think the real problem is that the people we really want to protect tonight are the claimed power roles. If Hero has a confirmed innocent that's not a power role, that'd be ideal.

[Yosarian2]

Oh yeah, Yos, do you have an ability that you'd like to use tonight?

Not really.

A cultdoc could target you instead of Ludi. Right guys?

I don't like all this directing of the cultdocs.

What I *REALLY* don't like, though, is Ooba demanding that a cult doc protect him, when we've got claimed vigs, a claimed cop, a claimed jailkeeper, and a claimed doctor. Really re-enforces my "ooba is scum" thinking here.

[Yosarian2]

What I *REALLY* don't like, though, is Ooba

demanding

that a cult doc protect him, when we've got claimed vigs, a claimed cop, a claimed jailkeeper, and a claimed doctor. Really re-enforces my "ooba is scum" thinking here.

- Claimed cop covered by claimed JK. And till now I thought claimed JK was covered by claimed cop.
- Vigs were unrecruitable last game and even if not this game, should give Kinetic enough pause to really think about wasting a recruit attempt.
- Both cult-docs are unrecruitable

The doc serves no purpose unless you subscribe to the fourth faction Mafia theory - even if you take him into account, that leaves:
- BunnyLover
- Cobblerfone
- Conspiracy
- Flameaxe
- Amrun
- Ludi
- Me
By cult-docing me, you make sure that I watch one of the others and can use that as a confirmed pseudo "Wasn't recruited on N5" result. So basically we're forcing Kinetic to add another layer to his recruit thoughts apart from "Who'd make a good recruit", "Who'd be shot by the vigs" - "Who is ooba going to watch?"

Just because you can't think of the obvious town benefits doesn't make me cult. And "demanding" is a stretch.

---

The vigs claiming their targets in advance is a bad idea.

And you don't think that the cult docs claiming their targets in advance is a bad idea? Or, even worse, the cult docs being directed to protect a certain person?

[Yosarian2]

Yosarian Johnson, Cook - No to the cult-doc on me; No comment on location claiming

I am already location claimed, and you know that since you brought it up. I think you're fairly likely to be cult, so I don't really see any reason to tell anyone else to go along with your plan.

[Yosarian2]

I know this was directed at Ooba, but I don't think it's terrible as long as that person can be confirmed town by Hero in the same night simply because I don't like doubt.

If you don't like doubt, then you shouldn't have joined a cult game.

Seriously, we need the scum to not know who the cult doctors are going to protect, because otherwise they will succeed in culting 100% of the time. We want them to fail.

[Yosarian2]

Ok, I'll respond:

Let's analyze the two scenarios:
- Bvoigt on someone else = Someone else protected from recruit
- Bvoigt on me; I watch someone else = I will know if Someone else is recruited that night; Plus I'm protected

1. Protecting someone from recruit, preventing a recruitment from happening, is much better for the town then you watching Kinetic recruit someone and then us lynching that person tomorrow, and fairly obviously so. The idea that we should waste a protection on you just so you can watch someone else makes no sense from a pro-town perspective.

2. All of this is assuming you're town, which is, well, a pretty thin assumption at this point. If you are scum, then you are trying to get the cult doc to waste their protection on someone who's already scum to make sure your cult recruitment succeeds tonight, or even if that doesn't work you're trying to get the doc to respond to find out who he's likely to target tonight.

3. And, of course, let's say for the sake of argument that tomorrow you do say "Hey, I saw the cult recruit X, X is scum". We still won't know if you're cult or not, and seeing as tomorrow could in theory be lynch or lose, it could easily be a scum gambit on your part. If it even happens; the odds of you actually getting information on any given night isn't all that big to start with.