ASOIAF: Test of Faith Mafia (Game Over!)
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Espe's Analysis Page by page
Note: I will not be adding quotes. It is a waste of time on something like this. I will provide post numbers on important posts. Enjoy.
OMFG Espe is reading the tread. lesgo
Page 1:
Not much here, RVS, large wagon. That's actually a good thing. Impossible to garner anything from the votes themselves.
Page 2:
Now we have some action. I'm liking Empking. His over-analysis comes across as town, obviously trying to start some action. Good stuffs.
#36: Not going to go into too much detail seeing as it appears to be purposely weak. However this is a rather scummy post. In contrast to Emp, DGB has tried really hard to start a hard serious counterwagon. Either scum or has never played with MoI before.
LMP gets scum points for #46, that was a bad and lazy vote. Like flopping on a wagon. Top scumpick at this point.
Page 3:
Theory stuff and people missing the point. AGM gets townpoints for his post.
Fuuuu – Vezok is town in this game.
Hascow and magua speak sense, not townpoint gain worthy though.
Replacee makes bad vote, great. But does make a good point at bottom of the page. I'm seeing more of a triangle with SK, Magua and LMP but still.
Page 4:
SK going flippy floppy scumpoints
Hindu may be off but townposting = +townpoints.
Don't see what's wrong with LB. Doesn't come across as scummy. Just as floating around the thread too much. Null tell.
Why are people voting MoI. This is his town meta.
TOWN:
Empking
LB
Hindu
Vezok
MoI (obv)
And LB picks up on what I've been saying.
Can't get a read on Spyrex
Kast vote was bad.
Page 5:
His making actual points overrides. LMP looking for meta lynch when one doesn't exist.
Hascow comes in a ignores big issues. Scumpoints.
Plum makes good post. Raises good points. In light of the MoI flip, it actually makes me more likely to think hydra is town. First well thought out vote on the wagon.
LMP is digging his grave.
Andrius playing town. Hydra definantly town.
Ben gets town points.
Page 6:
Just realised this analysis is pretty fail. Eh I'll keep going. You guys don't have to read it. I'll make a vote at the end.
Thor seems town.
Seteal is scum. Not for the vote. For the complete ignorace of everything that is going on.
Still can't bloody read spyrex.
Page 7:
Mainly solidifies my town reads. I can see a voting bloc forming.
Seteal's post at the bottom of this page is exactly what I am talking about just before. It is plain and simple active lurking. At best vigbait at worst scum or even cult recruiter. Active lurkers usually don't get killed until later.
Page 8:
DGB pops her head back up this page. This provides some interesting stuff. I'm actually reading her as town despite her outlandish posts. Actually probably because of it. The interaction of DGB seems on the surface as a possible scum/town however I'm not buying into that. If either were scum they wouldn't have just dropped it like what happened.
Page 9:
LMP quotes AGM from a few pages back and it just occurred to me. LMP's explosion at the end of the page before is actually screaming of a distressed town. Keeping this in mind. Could also be a scum who has just realised they need to go into damage control.
Scratch the first point. It's the second.
Page 10:
LMP is looking more townie. However that isn't making anyone else look more scum.
And then SK has to go ruin it. If SK flips mafia the LMP is too.
Page 11:
Thor manages to nab scumpoints by appearing and putting the forming wagon on the map. Reason? Because he doesn't like the bigger ones. Why? Who knows, he didn't say.
Thor is getting scummier by the post. Avoiding questions and trying to justify active lurking.
Page 12:
This game is drying up and waiting for the lynch. No noteworthy posts.
Page 13:
@ Setael – omfg that is all you came in to post. LYNCH THIS ONE PLEASE.
Thor is looking for town points post lynch. THIS ONE CAN ALSO BE LYNCHED.
Nexus is town
Page 14 & 15 (lol accidentally forgot to split them.):
Ben gets townpoints for trying to unstagnate the game.
Yeah Nexus seems to have town motivations despite Mina's take.
#369 SETAEL IS SCUM - SEE IT? SEE IT?
Magua gets town points for the Nexus derail attempt. Moreso than others afterwards.
Page 16:
Nothing of importance.
Page 17 & 18 FAIL PAGES:
Blank
Page 19:
SK, noone cares about that RVS debate.
Thor makes bad voteS
Page 20:
Vezok, you're town. Can you try?
Ok now to present.
Will follow the SK lynch for reasons i have listed as I have gone. Namely the wishy washy and then the disappearing act. Willing to also lynch Thor and Set. Set needs to eat vig bullet tonight.
Vote: SKDon't @ me.-
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Because they are both obv town.
Neither of them are remotely scummy. The people you are going after are low posters. You seem to be actively seeking the easiest wagon to get on without looking bad yet also staying out of the limelight. Most of your votes in the second half of day 1 fit the MO of a scum trying to hide in plain sight and not caring what wagon you're on.Don't @ me.-
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http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... =3&t=16121
That's as town. I've never replaced in as mafia. And don't read that game. I hammered a confirmed townie.Don't @ me.-
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I've also played with ben town before. His play here isn't dissimilar.
And I don't have issue with you avoiding the MoI wagon. I have issue with you avoiding all the wagons. There were two other wagons there that actually would have served a purpose had you voted on either. You deflected when you were asked about as well. But no instead you stayed ambiguous and went with something completely different and unhelpful to town.Don't @ me.-
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I see him asking decent questions and placing a good vote to mobilise town as it was stagnating. Sure it was on MoI but the game needed something. And tbh this just a small point in the reasons why i think you are scummy. There are other votes. The one on my predecessor being the worst because of timing and reason.
Unvote, Vote: SKDon't @ me.-
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@ Magua: There are better places for your vote. A sheeper is not a good lynch at this point of the game.
@ Thor: I'd like reasoning for your Ben vote more than meta seeing as that has been disproven. Also wanting to see you nexus reasons, but that doesn't need to happen.
@ Everyone: I'd like to see everyone's stance on Seteal's alliance. This is my second favorite lynch for today. I have already stated my opinions on this in my wall.Don't @ me.-
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All I could think was Alli sound. Alliance Alignment. Same diff.
Go look at why I think you are scum. It has little to do with tunnelling. That is an issue you take up with Ben. The Ben discussion started because you were trying to backup a read because I called you out on trying to stay out of the action. The Ben digression has developed to where it is its own debate. My issue with you in not that debate. I'm willing to call the point moot and go back to the original. There are two more cases of what I find scummy not including the Ben one.
As for the tunnelling comment, no you aren't tunnelling. Again that isn't for me to dispute with you.
And asking my opinion. It's null on both sides. omgus isn't a tell either way.Don't @ me.-
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SaintKerrigan wrote:Oh hey look, everyone and their grandmother's uncle is convicting me. I guess they're right!
Unvote: Bilbo Baggins
Vote: SaintKerrigan
...that was a joke.Unvote: SaintKerrigan
But seriously, since I've pretty much been convicted, would people please do me a favor and just get it over with?
Here, I'll even help by claiming now: I am aTownsperson (Embodiment of the Souls). My ability is vigilante -- but I'm not allowed to start killing until N3. It's a really scummy role, isn't it?
There you go. Rope, plz.
I like how the scummy post comes just after I say that SK is town. Why did you claim? No point to. Noone expressly said that they were going to lynch you if you didn't claim.Don't @ me.-
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DrippingGoofball wrote:Espeonage wrote:Is it just me or is this AtE looking really bad.
Unvote, Vote: SK
L-2
That particular AtE means SK is town. Thanks for dropping an opportunistic wikitell.
Actually. A town AtE is either actually emotional or full rage. Somewhere in between reads differently to me.Don't @ me.-
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SaintKerrigan wrote:You know on second thought:
Unvote: AlmasterGM
Vote: Espeonage
Something about that last interchange between him and me bothered me. Actually, I'm not sure I've liked the convos I've had with him in this game. You guys might wanna pay attention to him when you decide to start taking things seriously.
What convos? We've had interchanges what, two times? How is that grounds for saying you haven't liked the convos we've had? Seriously. In that little posting you could point out exactly what you don't like and why you don't like it rather than saying that it bothered you and not giving any reasoning other than an empty one liner?Don't @ me.-
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OK so let me get this straight. Because I had a one post turnaround in opinion based on something that screamed "Wait ignore any good points you had, I just lost them all." I'm opportunistic scum?
Yeah failing to see any weight behind that case.
If SK flips scum the people trying to seal the lynch through DGB will be coming under scrutiny.Don't @ me.-
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1. Setatel doesn't understand wagon momentum.
2. I have played with vezok ALOT. I feel like I can actually read his alignment fairly well. I judged him town.
3. Ummm, no. Vezok is town based on a strong meta understanding. ben is town because of reasons I have explained already and you are scum for active lurking AS WELL AS completely ignoring most of what was important whenever you did post.
4. Spyrex's reasoning falls down as it is an empty case.
5. Can't answer for mae's actions, sorry.
For a longish post that was a fairly bad case, js.Don't @ me.-
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Never said your suspicion of me wasn't important. What I am saying and have said before is that you, just like Thor but moreso, have decided to come in when you feel like it and give posts that steer as far away from everything the town is going on about at the time. It's the most obvious attempt at hiding in plain sight as I have ever seen.Don't @ me.-
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Ok.
Now asked why I thought Ben and LB are the same alignment. Go back and look at it. When I read it the whole thing seemed pre-planned. As if they had this thing waiting in their QT and went "Hey, we gonna do that thing now?" "Yeah, let's do that thing now."
Anyway Explosion of posts today. Read all of it. Alot of back and forth. Willing to vote on Set. This has gone far past omgus, which if people will recall was how Set ended up on me in the first place.
Until Set picks up though and considering the turnaround today.Vote: BenDon't @ me.-
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I am a 1-shot Vig variant. Embodiment of the Warrior for those who want the flavour claim.
I have a 1-shot Daykill that I can either use privately or in thread. I get another shot if I manage to kill a cult member. I wanted to wait as long as possible before using it to maximise the chance of hitting a cult member.
Considering where I am and that I am likely going to be eating rope I am willing to give my shot away to the majority. Recent consesus points to people like Emp, Spy, LB. Anyway, even if I nab a cult member today I'm not getting my next shot until tomorrow. I've been trying to get people to pay attention to my cult suspicions from when I replaced in for just this purpose, to find who the cult is so I can get them.Don't @ me.-
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Hinduragi wrote:Hinduragi wrote:also: wanting to not get vigged but be lynched, when the claim is that the dayvig gets ANOTHER shot after killing cult, is strongly suggestive of you actually -being- cult.
Funny. My town pm is strongly suggestive of me actually -being- town. If you haven't noticed, that shot is basically the last hope. If you think I'm so obvcult, lynch me now and watch me flip town. You think the mafia would kill Esp overnight? Not a chance in hell. There's no risk involved.
Actually, don't do this. Esp would get recruited.
And Benmage, if I was CR and had thought of everyone targeting Thor, I wouldn't recruit him. Otherwise, I would've gone for him.
Someone isn't a town PR. We're unrecruitable.Don't @ me.-
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It would be Thor or Magua for the shot. I've had an anti town read on Thor since I replaced in. Which, given Cow's investigate means Thor ain't cult unless scum can be recruited. So that leaves Magua. Next two on list* are Bogre and CyberSet factoring in my reads. Bogre seems like a weird person to recruit to me and I've had a CR read on CSet from the beginning.
So Magua or CSet?
*Using compiled list of reads.Don't @ me.-
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vezokpiraka wrote:unvote
vote AGM
Lynch one of the obvious CRs.
You're just happy for a lynch other than yourself.
Tell me again why we are talking about lynching someone other than a 100% chance of being anti town? Is scum really influencing the lynch that much?
Let's take a look at the must lynch scum reasoning.
There have been two nights of recruiting. Assuming no crazy stuff going on the cult would have max of 4. Assuming that they have an extra member and both recruits went through. Now let's look statistically. Chances are cult have less than this. 1. Cult probably didn't start with two. Just because that is logical. Also there are multiple unrecruitables. Not sure how many but scum certainly can't and from my role pm there are town that is unrecruitable as well.
So look at the amount of players. 13.
Taking out the town paranoia, which is generally a safe way to look at it, but not useful here. We are probably in a 6/4/3. Lets say we lynch vezok. 6/3/3 going in to the night. Scum will be trying to kill cult. Cultists are probably going to be easy to random kill and add in a bit of calculated guessing and we have a cult dying. 5/3/3
We can probably play a waiting game as town seeing as if scum lose a single player at this point they will have to stop attacking town and attack cult. It would only be a matter of time until the cult recruiter dies. We probably have 4 deaths to hit them after the lynch.
That is pretty good odds considering what information can be gathered / what we already have.
Instead of lynching in the dark, even if there is reasoning. Would it not be better to force the action of scum to help eradicate the cult?Don't @ me.-
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Cogito Ergo Sum wrote:Espeonage wrote:There have been two nights of recruiting. Assuming no crazy stuff going on the cult would have max of 4. Assuming that they have an extra member and both recruits went through. Now let's look statistically. Chances are cult have less than this. 1. Cult probably didn't start with two. Just because that is logical. Also there are multiple unrecruitables. Not sure how many but scum certainly can't and from my role pm there are town that is unrecruitable as well.
1. Cult probably did start with 2. Why would the cult be unable to recruit N1 if not to compensate an extra member. There certainly doesn't appear to be a scarcity of anti-cult roles. Starting with 2 also allows for mechanisms that it noticeably less swingy, e.g. cult can pick one to be the CR.
2. Bilbo, SK, has, you and Spy are not going to have been targetted for recruitment. That leaves 2 Embodiments left, max. Odds are if the CR targetted town, the recruitment got through. (I, for one, think benmage N2 and Thor N3 is pretty plausible.)
Espeonage wrote:Instead of lynching in the dark, even if there is reasoning. Would it not be better to force the action of scum to help eradicate the cult?
Scum will help us regardless. Town is almost certainly the weakest faction currently.
That's reason enough to lynch any anti town that we can confirm is anti town. Taking a chance on possible town lynch is asking to lose. If towns situation wasn't this dire i would be chasing the CRer too.Don't @ me.-
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- Location: Existential Dread of my Inner Thoughts
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Espeonage anySurvivorany
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 11651
- Joined: December 17, 2009
- Pronoun: any
- Location: Existential Dread of my Inner Thoughts
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Espeonage anySurvivorany
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 11651
- Joined: December 17, 2009
- Pronoun: any
- Location: Existential Dread of my Inner Thoughts