Commodore Amazing: When I say I am 100% certain that Lee was scum, that is not based on information known exclusively to me - that is my assessment based on the happenings of yesterday. I simply find it
inconcievable
that Lee would be on our side and yet behave as he did. I suppose the 100% was slight hyperbole - 99% would probably be more accurate, but I would find it difficult to justify that 1%. It would certainly be nice to have confirmation, but it looks unlikely.
petroleumjelly: Hindsight is 20/20. We can only act on the information we have in front of us at a given moment. I would expect that somewhere in the region of 80% of us are innocent, and as such, in the early game where we have limited information to work from, it does not seem unreasonable that 80% of our votes/nominations will be on innocents.
I also find it interesting that you repeatedly refer to DrippingGoofball as an "arbitrary innocent", which suggests you have no reason to believe her innocent. I could understand it if you were prepared to use your belief of her innocence as a basis for reasoning if you had some justification of that belief, but the implication of your words is you do not. What is particularly odd about that is we
do
have quite a good reason to believe her innocent - specifically, her spearheading of the attack on Lee yesterday on an entirely solid basis - and yet, you consider her only "arbitrarily innocent".
Furthermore, I find it interesting that you refer to yourself as "clearly not scum". Are you just being glib here, or have I missed something (entirely possible, a lot is being said here today)?
Pooky: That is certainly an interesting piece of information, but could I ask why you think it would clear you? It is certainly evidence that you knew something about Thok (either via an ability or because you discussed it at night), but it is not implausible that our enemies can gather data too. This is not to say I think it reflects ill on you - I don't - but that doesn't mean it proves your innocence. As for your remaining piece of information, I would have thought that if it is of similar ilk to the information about Thok, it is far more valuable in catching scum in a lie than being revealed to the town.
Speaking of supporting innocence, how many people have claimed their roles are confirmable so far? By my count, we have Cogito, Mike, Pooky (who I think means something other than what I take "confirmable" to mean), Fritzler (tomorrow?) and Commodore.
I'd like to say a few words about Commodore. Specifically, I am skeptical. His ability seems remarkably good - not just in terms of the information it can provide (if we can trust his results, then at the end of day 3 we have
7
confirmed innocents - the phrase "too good to be true" comes to mind), but also with the other "extras" that have been thrown in - the ability to turn into a bear, the information about the number of "Caesars", and the ability to cast roles.
Firstly, I find it interesting that you know
exactly
what the "good hanging" means, but have no real idea about the bear or Caesar ability. Admittedly, it is somewhat less ambiguous, but nonetheless it is being used as the fulcrum of our discussions today, and we should be careful about assuming that we can take "The List" at face value. Unfortunately, it is
not
a particularly testable theory, as no single lynch off the list can prove anything (the only way to prove it is by either lynching scum from the list, or by lynching the entirety of the "off-list").
Secondly, I would like to speculate briefly about your "bear" ability. You say you do not know what it means, but you assume it means you both die - what leads you to that conclusion (as I do not know the context in which it was presented to you)? My immediate guesses would have been it was either an opportunity to kill that player or to track them, and see what they did after exiting stage left. It strikes me that if I am correct, then doing either of these on a player on the "bear" list could be useful to the town. If you were to die in the process, then this would obviously be less good, hence my question as to why you believe this to be the case.
Thirdly, you say that you can cast roles. Quite apart from this being easily explained by a cult, it should be noted (as I did with Pooky) that this would only confirm you as having the ability to cast roles, not the ability to determine who qualifies as a "good hanging".
For now, whilst I still have my eye on Pooky I do not believe him to be a good target today. I see that Fritzler has brought little to the table and can support his nomination, and despite his presence on the List Werebear is giving me very bad vibes - particularly his continued pursual of Cogito Ergo Sum. I am also curious about Thok - it seems to me that our scum have more to hide than our innocents, and it would be wise to, to paraphrase DG, keep the option open.
nominate: Fritzler, Werebear, Thok