ASOIAF: Test of Faith Mafia (Game Over!)

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YARR!

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Quick question: Is my slot obvtown or do I need to wow you guys with pro-town zest and can-do attitude?

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About halfway through the thread.

Vote: Espeonage

, hunch.

There will be zest tomorrow.

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Okay, I've finished reading.

1. WE ARE NOT LYNCHING BENMAGE. "Yawn vt, let's breadcrumb cop." is mucho plausible and definite non-CR tell; if he's CR, then either he breadcrumbed cop without having a safe claim OR he decided to not go with his safe claim despite the fact that SpyreX basically got a pass for it just now. We need to hit the CR real soon and Benmage ain't it.
2. WE ARE LYNCHING ESPEONAGE. He's lurking, useless and his reads don't make any sense. The fact that he made this big :EFFORT: catch-up post just yells CR to me; he clearly hasn't been as motivated to contribute at any point since and drawing CR obviously motivates you, especially when there's some suspicion on the slot.
3. THE TOWN ISN'T GOING TO LISTEN TO ME. Faraday, I'm going to need your Irish charm to make these fuckers do the right thing.

P.S. Vez is obvscum too, but that goes without saying. CyberSet makes plenty of sense as Mafioso sadly. Magua reads as town. Nexus pushing for Benmage to reveal his innocents is a clear non-CR tell. SpyreX pretty much has to be town here despite his terrible push on benmage.

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Woo.

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Yarr.

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Is Empking normally this bad at scum?

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Oh, I agree he looked town early on. Recruit is exactly what I'm thinking.

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Unvote

Well there goes my best guess. AGM and Hindu probably make most sense to me as CR here simply by PoE (vezok is the mafia's problem/mafia). Need to think for a bit.

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That assumes he'd expect us to listen to him. (And it also makes sense as coming from not-cult.)

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I don't think it's Magua.

Vig Thor, lynch AGM might just be my preference here, not entirely sure.

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CES, read on Hinduragi please.

I'm willing to trust LB's town read on him.

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You should probably shoot Magua, Espe. I doubt he'd think I was scum here as town, since it's fairly obvious I'm town.

I can actually agree with this. Magua for CR? Is there anything saying otherwise?

I'm saying otherwise.

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I'm not saying non-CR specifically, I just straight-up have a gut town read on him. And my town reads are pretty accurate.

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Nice. Hind had already claimed vt by the bye.

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You sure Espe aint a scum PR??

I aint.

Im thinking about it. It would make sense that mafia and town have at least 1 recruitable, if not more.

What?

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Maiden*

There are 14 alive, Benmage. Why would we mass claim?

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There are 7, right? 3 dead, Esp, Emp, Spy. That leaves 1. Not very helpful PoEwise.

I'm not sure whether the embodiments are all unrecruitable. Neither SK nor cow mentioned being unrecruitable.

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Yeah, well, you're not getting it, scumbag.

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Why is AGM so low?

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I've been pretty adamant it's not Magua. If you think he's the CR, you really should've noticed that, AGM. 3/4 of the people you're pushing are also obvious non-CRs.

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I can't say I find that a very persuasive argument, Magua.

I'm pushing 3 people, not 4.

and they are all likely cult.

have you even read the game?

You're pushing vezok too (not for the shot, but I don't particularly care for that distinction). Thor is confirmed non-CR. Vezok and benmage are generally agreed to not make sense as CR. That looks to me like you're not all that interested in finding the CR. (I'm fairly sure you're wrong about Magua too.)

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Thor665 (3) +Benmage, +CES, +AlmasterGM
Magua (3) +SpyreX, +Lost Butterfly, +Benmage, +AlmasterGM, -CES
AlmasterGM (2) +CES, +Benmage
CyberSet (1) +Lost Butterfly
Bogre (1) +Nexus
Hinduragi (1) +Magua, -Lost Butterfly, +Borge
Benmage (1) +SpyreX
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Espeonage (0)
Nexus (-1) -Benmage
Empking (-1) -Lost Butterfly
Lost Butterfly (-2) -Hinduragi, -CES
SpyreX (-3) -Hinduragi, -Lost Butterfly, -Magua
vezokpiraka (-4) -Lost Butterfly, -SpyreX, +Thor, -Magua, -Benmage, -AlmasterGM

This should be more accurate.

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Ces:Thoughts on CyberSet?

I had him down as mafia early on, but I'm not as sure now. I could definitely see them making the DGbkill.

I also found this in their iso, not quite sure what to make of it:

Top 3 cult recruits for us would be DGB, Spy or Kublai.

You're pushing vezok too (not for the shot, but I don't particularly care for that distinction). Thor is confirmed non-CR. Vezok and benmage are generally agreed to not make sense as CR. That looks to me like you're not all that interested in finding the CR. (I'm fairly sure you're wrong about Magua too.)

I'm not trying to shoot the CR. I'm trying to shoot cult. Trying to shoot the CR specifically just lowers our chances, which is bad because if we hit cult we get an extra shot.

And I explicitly stated that I think vezok is scum, not CR. Did you read my post?

You're still pushing him. I'd rather hit the CR and a townie than vig a recruit and lynch a mafioso.

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What do you have against an AGM shot?

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EBWOP: that's @Hind

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So you have just 1 suspect for CR?

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Well, they could be; just really unlikely.

Hind, you don't even have a null category. Who's your #2 pick for CR because I feel pretty darn certain it's not Magua?

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So Cyberset's definitely not CR in your eyes? Got any good reasons for that?

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You're not very good at faking CR hunting, just fyi.

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It's not a matter of sense. It's a matter of interest. You don't seem to care.

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That tends to happen when you get recruited.

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There's something to be said for assuming that we are somewhat close to nailing the CR (since I really don't like our chances otherwise). And I'd be shooting AGM here, so AGM CR + Hind recruit is not all that outlandish.

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My main suspicion fell through and the last time I did any CR hunting was in 2005. It's no excuse. Magua's town; start thinking about who the CR is if you're town.

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Shoot AGM or Thor.

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I will yell at you if you shoot Magua.

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Yes. They suggested he was mafia dayvig, remember?

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Has anyone interacted with vezok?

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I'd be more convinced by the "they're more likely mafia" argument if we had a bunch of good CR suspects. I don't really feel comfortable excluding them here (although AGM is still my preferred shot).

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So you got recruited last Night?

P.S. It's not going to come down to Thor vs. Magua because Magua's town.

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Why would I get recruited last night when Spyrex was calling me the CR? Don't be stupid.

Why would Spy's opinion be all that relevant? You're not a particularly likely recruit for last Night, but it's hardly out of the question if the CR wanted to go with a non-obvious pick who might be able to steer the town away from him (which e.g. Thor obviously can't do).

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I'm not sure we do. I would've expected one of SK/cow to mention it.

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Empking's been going on about the Crone claim for a while now, Hind.

And yeah, that's not how you use a safe claim.

Unvote, vote: Hind

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We're all aware you make sense as a recruit and you know that too. Trying to determine who the CR is based on your play doesn't strike me as particularly productive.

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I am ignoring it. And I'm certainly not ruling out that the CR might've recruited someone else.

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Unvote, vote: AGM

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AGM has done some genuine mafiahunting, but his CRhunting has never gone beyond "Magua is CR" and he hasn't pushed that angle particularly hard. AGM makes a boatload of sense as the CR.

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AGM has done some genuine mafiahunting, but his CRhunting has never gone beyond "Magua is CR" and he hasn't pushed that angle particularly hard. AGM makes a boatload of sense as the CR.

U were just all in on hindu... now you're whimsically all in on AGM

*shrug* Lack of support for the AGMwagon. AGM has always been my biggest suspect after Esp.

I actually think exclusively trying to lynch the CR is a mafia-tell at this point.

I really don't like our chances if the CR doesn't die real soon.

Benmage, we should lynch vezok, but

not Today

.

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Growing threat > static threat is still just as true.

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And you know he's not a recruit how, Empking?

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CES: Like I said. His buddies didn't bus him (otherwise he'd've been lynched). That means he's not expendable. That means he's the CR.

I don't think the cult would be particularly motivated to get benmage lynched here.

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Irrational fear is a town tell here.

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This burst on activity on benmage's part is entirely consistent with him having been recruited by AGM.

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Yeah because this is a stupid lynch.

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We shouldn't be letting benmage and Thor influence the lynch anyhow.

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Is there anyone else who'd like me to ruin their wagon by voting for it?
All while no one bothers to vote me for being 'obv. obv. obv. cult?'

I'm learning to hate this game and hate cults.

If you're town, you forfeited your right to whine about this by voting for vezok.

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I was never gungho Hindu.

Vezok is obvmafia here. Lynching him Today doesn't help us; it just gives the cult another member (something we can ill afford to let happen) and we're unlikely to be significantly more accurate tomorrow.

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Townhunting isn't that hard.

Thor, if they haven't recruited him yet.
LB
Magua
Me

And whose assuming a cult, recruit even isn't shot..neutralizing their numbers.

Cult shot is entirely possible. But even if they shoot the CR, we gave him an extra night to screw us over.

The doomsday scenario of hitting town now.

Because hitting town tomorrow is somehow not as bad?

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It's not crazy. Town's going to be distracted by hunting for cult and the cult will turn some obvtownies bad.

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There have been two nights of recruiting. Assuming no crazy stuff going on the cult would have max of 4. Assuming that they have an extra member and both recruits went through. Now let's look statistically. Chances are cult have less than this. 1. Cult probably didn't start with two. Just because that is logical. Also there are multiple unrecruitables. Not sure how many but scum certainly can't and from my role pm there are town that is unrecruitable as well.

1. Cult probably did start with 2. Why would the cult be unable to recruit N1 if not to compensate an extra member. There certainly doesn't appear to be a scarcity of anti-cult roles. Starting with 2 also allows for mechanisms that it noticeably less swingy, e.g. cult can pick one to be the CR.
2. Bilbo, SK, has, you and Spy are not going to have been targetted for recruitment. That leaves 2 Embodiments left, max. Odds are if the CR targetted town, the recruitment got through. (I, for one, think benmage N2 and Thor N3 is pretty plausible.)

Instead of lynching in the dark, even if there is reasoning. Would it not be better to force the action of scum to help eradicate the cult?

Scum will help us regardless. Town is almost certainly the weakest faction currently.

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I'm not sure we can afford not to hit the CR today. Giving the cult an extra recruit is asking to lose.

If you're in a bad situation, you should take more risks, not less.

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Whoever's playing CR is playing well. Going to iso SpyreX, Hinduragi and Empking soonish. AGM's iso points to not-benmage, not-LB, not Nexus weakly (not like he's CR anyway). He calls Hind town at some point and is pretty silent on Spy (doesn't even acknowledge the claim) and Emp.

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P.S. vezoklynch still stupid

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CES does massclaim help us here?

Let me get back to you on that.

Mod

, is AGM's original role Townsperson or do we not get to know his original role?

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paragon of townies known as AGM.

I've just remembered that AGM was much townier Day One and Two. He's still definitely not the CR though (And I'd say that even if BM wasn't the obv CR.)

This doesn't like a CR who recruited AGM, does it?

I cannot tell you his original role. Sorry.

Hmm. This suggests that there are recruitable PRs and allows for "CR recruits PR and claims recruit's role."

Needs to be in discussion.

Nope.

Also, nyah to LB, I was on cult and scum yesterday. My beard is sexy and you will be overpowered by its awesomeness sooner or later.

A truly awesome beard would've lead us to the CR. Vezoklynch was stupid.

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Spy, I want you to explain the post 1 breadcrumb.

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Being wrong isn't stupid. Making an obviously unoptimal move is.

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I'm just going to ignore benmage from this point on.

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"Unaware" is a weird word to use there, so I think I buy it.

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Vote: Empking

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I'd like to know about the Crone too.

Interesting note: Empking called for a Maguavigkill, not a benmagevigkill.

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If we assume benmage is a recruit as seems likely, the fact that you've tunneled on him for a while now but pushed someone else for the vig seems awfully convenient. The mechanics of the vig meant that even a recruit shot would be something that the cult would try to avoid, I would think.

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I'm not sure about that, Hind. You probably don't want to draw too much attention to the cult at first or risk recruiting players who end up getting nightkilled, but I don't see those concerns as particularly valid at this point. If I were CR, I'd probably just recruit LB here and try to lead the town - the only downside to LB as recruit that I see is how obvious it is.

If we assume benmage is a recruit as seems likely, the fact that you've tunneled on him for a while now but pushed someone else for the vig seems awfully convenient. The mechanics of the vig meant that even a recruit shot would be something that the cult would try to avoid, I would think.

When do you think Benmage-recruit was recruited?

Not sure. N2, N3 or non-CR cult from the beginning all work. I do see the problem you're alluding to - both AGM and benmage make most sense on N2, but I kinda think that's just due to how terrible the cowlynch was.

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P.S. why would Empking as mafia push Maguavig over benmagevig? Mafia should absolutely be culthunting, so unlikely benmage suspicion would be fake or bussing in that case.

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If everyone was onto AGM, a recruit, and EVERYONE is looking for you, I'm pretty sure the CR will continue playing his neutral game or make it even more passive. The entire reasoning behind it is how obvious it is and that's why he never recruited DGB. AGM was definitely recruited N2, as per my ISO. Benmage N3, if only in the hopes to get a Cop recruit.

"Never" is a strong word for 2 nights; I'm not sure DGb was that obvious either.

I'm game for a massclaim. It can't really hurt at this point.

I've thought about it and I think we should stick to a Croneclaim (which should answer some questions). We've got a pretty idea of what the set-up looks like townwise and I'm having difficulty imagining a scenario wherein forcing the issue would be the smart move. It's one of the things where you think "yeah, this'll get us info" but when it comes down to it, it's pretty hard to pin down how exactly it's supposed to help us, like no-lynch when the nightkill or the lynch is obvious.

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I know, Hind. If we didn't have such concrete knowledge, I'd probably be advocating mass claim blindly.

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You should full-claim and point to breadcrums as far as I'm concerned.

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Magua was definitely among AGM's suspicions, but AGM didn't push Magua particularly hard. AGM did put up a "Who wants whom shot?"-count at a point Magua was leading the vote (a feature the count wouldn't've had if he had counted me as an opponent of the Maguakill).

We've had 6 aspect claims so far, which leaves one, yes.

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And to rapture away all the townies and induce the Great Tribulation.

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Why Spy?

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Spy still strikes me as a weird choice; there's a reason he claimed yesterday.

Talk to me about your thought process regarding your N4 choice.

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Quite possibly LB was the best recruit option, but the kill was far more predictable, I would think.

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Mafia want the recruiter dead as much as we do. I'm not sure if AGM would've been the better watch, but it has to be part of the conversation.

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Not to mention that even if you catch the recruiter, you still have a credibility problem.

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Not if AGM had been the recruiter. The mafioso also wouldn't've had to be lynched that day, which makes it less of a pressing issue.

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Why do you buy that he's a watcher? It's an easy enough fake claim.

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If he's recruited the Crone into the fold, then he could've legitimately believed benmage was mafia at the time.

Empking, what are your current reads?

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And that's problematic how?

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Yet Empking didn't want benmage vigged. Empking thinking benmage cult is a recent development.

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Empking, talk to me about Maguacult.

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^not even trying

Spyre, Emp is my main suspect for CR and the lack of confirmability of his claim is perfectly compatible with that scenario.

CES: I can't talk with such a general thing. By Day 4, Magua was in a position where all the energy put on him was dead and had been fizzled. That coupled with his competence makes him an ideal night 4 recruit especially now we know AGM was a recruit.

So what you're saying is "I had him as cult before, so I just plunked him there on the list without thinking." There's a lot of support for the notion that cult started off with a non-CR. Wouldn't Magua make most sense as that role in your worldview?

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That was why? That does make me reconsider.

Unvote

God, I'm starting to buy the benmage-as-really-reckless-CR as this point.

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I know.

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I keep entirely forgetting Nexus is in the game and no one bringing him up COULD be something but its a reach.

Nah.

It's benmage or Hind.

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He technically did call for AGM at some point.

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He might self-vote as a recruit, Faraday, or as a CR that's pretending to be one.

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Is it that implausible that he'd sacrifice a meta tell if he were the CR (even ignoring the ethical implications of playing suboptimally on purpose)?

coming round to ces being group scum though.

Why? I'm as town as a towning town that towns.

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esp
thor
bogre
ces
benmage

shouldn't be lynched today. gonna see who makes most cr sense from the others. which is 5 people. LOOK AT ME GO MAGUA.

Hint: probably Hind.

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Mod

, I unvoted.

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Hint: it's the cult leader.

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Esp claimed unrecruitable too, I'm fairly sure.

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How often have you self-voted this way?

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Vote: Hindu

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Hind actually believing the counterflavourclaim works as an explanation for one.

Also hascow's lynch was stupid and quick and anyone could have gotten away with anything on that shitfest.

This too.

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Esp, did I push an AGMshot or what?

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PEDIT: That is baseless wifom and you know it. Lack of bussing this game doesn't mean it couldn't happen there. WE ARE LOSING ALL RATIONAL THOUGHT. Fuck this game.

It's not. It's a clear anti-cult thing I did. I also wouldn't've opposed the Magua pushing with so much vehemence Yesterday if I were a CR.

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Thinking about it some more, if you believe Hind's claim that he was unfamiliar with benmage's meta, then it's not odd at all that he'd hammer there as CR. Really the most obvious scenario in his mind where benmage is lying would've been benmage as a recruit which Hind would know not to be the case.

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The last one.

Sounds like you've narrowed your CR hunt list a bit more - who's left on it?

Hind.

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Same reason Magua is.

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I'm not off it. Nexus is one of the few players I think could be cult recruiter.

Well, you're both off my list.

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Same reason you are.

Thor just asked me that question.

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A cult recruiter'd be more aware of shenanigans and might think of breadcrumbing sooner. I do think AGM flipping simply Cult Recruit suggests cult don't have a fake claim.

Oh fuck, I thought we massclaimed. I forgot we didn't. Why are we not massclaiming again?

Because it won't help us catch you?

I'm leaning more toward Empking being recruited last night.

You'd recruit someone suspicious who might be unrecruitable?

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You know what this game needs?

More Hind votes.

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My dealio with hind is he DID put in a lot of effort when he was up on the stakes.

And this disqualifies him from being a CR how?

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I didn't call you town. I switched to AGM because the AGMlynch seemed possible and AGM was my main suspect.

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Neither. It's Hind.

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Well, I happen to be pretty sure it's neither me nor Nexus and I buy benmage's self-vote. Which leaves me with Hind.

Cult recruiter does quick turnaround hammer on cult cop rather than having a recruit do it?

I see no reason to attach special significance to the hammer. Hind wasn't notably more responsible for that lynch, I would think. And again, I find it entirely plausible that Hind may have believed benmage's counterclaim.

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Explain.

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Let me repeat.

Repeat, hmm?

Yeah, this doesn't dissuade me in the least.

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Note also that in Hind's little story behind the hammer there, he's considering the possibility that benmage is lying yet there's no acknowledgement of the recruit suicide possibility (and Faraday would be no better judge of that than he would). How do you think benmage's cult cop counterclaim is fake and not contemplate benmagecult? (Answer: inside knowledge.)

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Yeah, because you were totally in a position to rule out a N2 recruit.

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6/1 no cult?

What?

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Because there could be a real Stranger out there?

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I could totally get Nexus lynched over me if I had wanted to, Esp. But I want to lynch the CR and Nexus isn't it.

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Spy, it's totes Hind. Trust me on this one.

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I seriously don't understand why anyone would think I'm a CR here. I've consistently argued against relatively easy lynches (anyone who thinks I couldn't get benmage or Nexus lynched over me is kidding themselves). This game would be so easy for me if I were a CR instead of incredibly frustrating (the near negligible odds of winning certainly don't help).

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CES - So you're not CR because you haven't lynched Benmage or Nexus and are trying to lynch the difficult target of Hindu?

I also pushed against Maguavig and Magualynch yesterday, but yes, basically.

There's no reason it can't be nexus actually.

It's not, though.

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Just sheep me. It's what I do.

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CES - So you're not CR because you haven't lynched Benmage or Nexus and are trying to lynch the difficult target of Hindu?

I also pushed against Maguavig and Magualynch yesterday, but yes, basically.

I like Magua as much as the next guy - but how does that make you not CR exactly? We don't know what Magua is so...

It wouldn't matter to me what they are either if I were a CR beyond possibly recruit/non-recruit (and Nexus and Magua are unlikely recruits (apart from maybe Magua last night); benmage I don't see doing the self-vote meta thing as just a recruit).

My big problem with this is that I simply do not see Hinduragi as a cult recruiter who goes and hammers hasdgfas -- *regardless* of whether he believed Benmage's claim or not.

I think you're massively overstating how bad that looked. DGb and benmage probably looked worst from the lynch. After them AGM and LB and only then Hind since he could claim lack of familiarity with benmage's meta. Just look at how little flack Hind got for it the next Day (but he

is

worried about getting lynched).

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Empking should definitely claim whether he's recruitable. It's pretty darn unlikely a CR would consider recruiting him at this stage anyway.

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CES: you still think hindu's cr? Shouldn't he be jumping on you as an obvious counterwagon by now? Now that i've said that it's invalid, of course but he's cutting down his options on who to lynch apart from him.

I think there's a reasonable argument to be made that going after me wouldn't be the right move even if it is the most obvious one. And he's still going after the wrong guy.

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The problem with that theory, Magua, is the clearly genuine "benmage's claimed investigation doesn't match with my watch" reaction + I definitely don't see benmage abusing the self-vote meta as a recruit.

Empking being the CR who recruited the watcher is still possible though. It would explain why he wasn't immediately aware that benmage was lying.

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I mean, it only took him 2 minutes, but hey, I'm fairly sure I would've realized straight away.

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It wouldn't be particularly ballsy if he stole it from one of his recruits. Seems like an easy fakeclaim to me anyhow. We already have most of our power roles accounted for.

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I'm afraid I'm going to be V/LA starting in about an hour. I'm going to yell at you guys if Nexus gets lynched.

I can't see Hind getting lynched as it stands, certainly not if I can't actively push it, so I will

Unvote, vote: Empking