Having four players entangled with one another was confusing the hell out of me, so I spent some time going through every scenario.
Result: Scum
Implications:
CJ: Depends on whether Kast flips as a scummifier (in which case, obviously P(CJ-scum) skyrockets) or, as GI as just suggested, something else like a scum inventor, in which case it is null.
SX: More likely town no matter what Kast's role (because if CJ was recruited, he is more likely to be lying, and if Kast is a scum dud inventor, then it is possible SX is being framed or something)
Stevie: I don't really know what to make of Stevie in any scenario that follows, other than that there is somewhat of a inverse correlation between Stevie's and SX's alignments (ie. Stevie-town makes SX-scum more likely, and vice-versa)
Result: Town
Implications:
CJ: Obviously less likely to be scum than before, though the flavour means that there are still good grounds for concerns about possible recruitment
SX: More likely scum, but qualified to the extent that the flavour creates cause for doubt over CJ and, thus, the claimed investigation result
Stevie: See above
Result: Scum
Implications:
Kast: CJ was a mason; Kast targeted CJ; CJ became scum. It follows that Kast is more likely scum than otherwise.
SX: MUCH more likely to be town, the only exception being a gambit by CJ to claim guilty on a partner
Stevie: See above
Result: Town
Implications:
Kast: Conversely to the above, Kast becomes more likely town here.
SX: MUCH more likely to be scum
Stevie: See above
Result: Scum
Implications:
CJ: MUCH more likely to be town (absent gambitting)
Kast: Insofar as CJ is more likely town, Kast is more likely town (obviously, the correlation is being filtered down a level)
Stevie: See above
Result: Town
Implications:
CJ: MUCH more likely to be scum
Kast: Insofar as CJ is more likely scum, Kast is more likely scum (obviously, the correlation is being filtered down a level)
Stevie: See above
Result: Scum
Implications:
See above
Result: Town
Implications:
See above
So what have we learned?
It's basically a direct chain of probability in either direction, with the reliability of the implications diminishing the further you move away from any given player.
Red = SCUM-SCUM
Green = SCUM-TOWN
Kast | <----------------------------> | CJ | <----------> | Spyrex | <-------------------------------------------------------------------> | Stevie |
Stevie's separation from Spyrex is longer than every other one to represent the fact that any information about or derived from Stevie is much less reliable than information about anybody else. Similarly, because I think recruitment/non-recruitment of CJ is more likely than an inventor role, I think the link of CJ-SX is stronger (and thus shorter) than the link of CJ-Kast.
This means that Stevie is the most useless lynch. However, with his score, and thinking he is also the one I am most confident of individually being scum.
SX and CJ are roughly equivalent in terms of usefulness, though CJ's mason status makes me inherently favour SX's lynch over his.
I don't see lynching Kast as particularly helpful, since I don't buy the case on him and a Kast scumflip wouldn't confirm CJ as scum.
SOOO, it's either SX or Stevie. Since I think Stevie is more likely scum at this point, it follows that his lynch should come first and any talk of lynchng SX should be postponed unless and until furter information comes to light
Unvote, Vote: Stevie