Neon Genesis Evangelion Mafia (Game Over)


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Post Post #90 (isolation #0) » Mon Jun 20, 2011 10:12 pm

Post by vollkan »

First off, to get my standard "How I Play" PSA out of the way: I rank my suspects from 0 (absolutely town) - 100 (absolutely scum). Everybody starts at 50. Because I don't believe in towntells and am skeptical about most scumtells, it is common for people to stay at 50. 50 does not mean "no opinion" - it means "I don't see scumtells" from this person. Absent claims, need for deadline compromises, etc. I will always vote the person with the highest score.

9: Null for GICE's miller claim
16:
CJ+5
CJ says "Really don't like this post. He's not *doing* anything." I fail to see how drew gets an FoS for not "doing anything" in one of the first posts. RVS gives a lot of leeway for weak arguments, but pulling out IIoA on the first page is just ridiculous.
21:
Ace+5
for similar reasons. Drawing distinctions between the levels of activity of the, like, four people who posted early p 1. See SpyreX's 36 for a more comprehensive takedown of this.
43: The Amrun v Starbuck thing is stupid.
53: @Amrun: can you clarify what is non-committal about Pom's post? (I assume you mean #41)
59: Kast v CJ (in 67) is null for both. Kast is right that the cult speculation isn't inherently scummy, but CJ is hardly in the wrong for pushing it as an early-game argument.
74: Okay...
Stevie+7
. 3 reasons: First is him spinning Amrun's cult meta reference post into some sort of conspiracy to derail the game. Amrun's actions are null based on his explanation; ill-thought-out perhaps, but painting it as scummy requires reaching for a motive. Second is his attack on Amrun for not contributing enough - same reasons as for the previous two, it's an easy and lazy attack to make D1, and in this case it also serves as padding. Finally, his stance on Kast's wagon - neutrality is fine (in the sense of "I don't think Kast is scummy, but I also don't think those attacking him are either") but Kast's is subtly, and significantly, different from this - he never gives any direct reasoning for his own stance on Kast, but also says he doesn't "think the wagon is completely unfounded" (double negative = passive), and then says "I wouldn't like it to see it get out of hand". In other words, he's avoiding giving any substantial explanation of why he doesn't (as he claims) suspect Kast, but also offers tacit support to the wagon, with the too-townie proviso that he doesn't want it to get out of hand.
86: What "scummy vibes" from Pom?

Vote: Stevie
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Post Post #135 (isolation #1) » Tue Jun 21, 2011 4:33 pm

Post by vollkan »

Pom wrote: GI's posts suck, considering he isn't answering valid questions, and he's criticizing Kast, who is making sense and stuff. GI continuously avoids/brushes off legitimate questions.

VOTE: GreyICE.

And a strong FoS goes out to Stevie , mainly for his acutely wishy-washy sentence regarding Kast. If you don't find Kast scummy then you don't think the wagon has a base; if you the wagon has a base then Kast is scummy. Also, if it's not 'completely unfounded', then what, in your opinion is it founded on? To top it off, the 'I wouldn't like it to see it get out of hand' seems to come to remedy the lack of sense made in the sentence, yet it does simply the opposite. No idea what's going on with this.


Pom+5


Aside from the fact that GI is playing exactly like how I've seen GI play in the past, there's a deeper problem with the above in that your reasons for Voting GI (avoiding questions and criticising Kast) are weaker than your reasons for FoSing Stevie (his inconsistent attitude on Kast)

---
All the votes on GI for the obvjoke mason claim are stupid over-reaction (null, but stupid nonetheless)
---
Amrun wrote: vollkan: Pom's #41 was like, "Well, what Amrun did was scummy, but it could have been a mistake, so maybe it's townie. Also, I'm going to extend RVS and not contribute. Bye." Her more recent post was better, though.


Is your problem with the first part of that (not having a strong position on Amrun) or the second (extending RVS and not contributing)?

Stevie wrote:
Clarification on the point on Kast: I have no problem with the people wagonning him as I think he is mildly scummy - I am not however going to vote for him.


You clearly don't think Kast is scummy enough to merit your own vote, so why then do you think other people are justified in voting for him. You've yet to actually explain what it is about Kast that makes him "mildly" scummy.
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Post Post #146 (isolation #2) » Tue Jun 21, 2011 10:27 pm

Post by vollkan »

Amrun wrote:Both, but more the former rather than the latter.


Which doesn't make any sense to me. "Well, what Amrun did was scummy, but it could have been a mistake, so maybe it's townie" is a perfectly legitimate way of explaining that, whilst something is on its face scummy, the prospect of it being simply a mistake is not sufficiently small to make the action a scumtell.

The only alternatives are either ignoring the prospect of it being a mistake (which is daft) or simply stating that it is a nulltell (which is fine, but I don't see why Pom is scummy simply for expressing it in a less succinct way)



StevieT92 wrote:
Pomegranate wrote:Actually, VOTE: Stevie. I hate the way he came in to make another short, meaningless post, gets criticized by GW for not having reads, and then right away comes in with a post voting GI (as well as the rest of his previously mentioned scummy behavior, of course). Additionally, although I don't like GI's play right now or anything, I can say that I don't want to be on a wagon with Stevie.


I think you guys see me being scummy about a playstyle thing I do. When I write posts I like to keep different topics separate and try to post multiple posts in a flurry. After I finished reading the thread and before GW posted I had already planned to vote for GreyIce. When I posted that first one sentence post I immediately started typing my post voting for GreyIce, the fact that GW posted a criticism of my voting at the same time was purely coincidental. You will see plenty of times in this game (assuming you dont all lynch me :p) that i post two or more times in a row. And of course I had never planned on posting one sentence and then leaving.

Look at what happens when I try and cram multiple thoughts into one post: I frankly admit that the sentence I wrote about Kast sucks ass and isn't vaguely good town behavior. That is why I tried to clarify what I meant.

Steve


Unless you're just making some kind of generic "I'm a bad player" defence, the above doesn't respond to the specific points I raised against you.

To put them in a simple numbered format:
1) Assuming that Amrun's cult reference was scum-motivated, when he'd already given a plausible null explanation (ie. meta reference)
2) Attacking Amrun for non-contribution
3) Your stance on Kast (which is now becoming the most important issue here).

On the Kast point specifically, the fact that you post quickly is irrelevant. You gave two posts lending tacit support to Kast's wagon without actually committing yourself to any particular view of Kast, coupled with the get-out-of-jail card of "don't let it get out hand".

Pom wrote:
Yeah, note the fact that my vote has already changed to Stevie, basically for that reason.


I am aware of that, but it doesn't change the inconsistency of your position at the time.

Stevie wrote: Firstly, the entire post is trying to answer a question with a question. That is scummy behavior, I'm not going to answer the question for you.


Le fail:
Stevie in 75 wrote:
GreyICE wrote:Come on, wagon scum to lynch by page 4.

Do it. DO IT


Town gains nothing by rushing for a quick lynch. Also you really haven't offered any significant criticisms of Kast, besides your sarcastic responses and posting about how much you want him lynched.


GreyICE in 79 wrote:
StevieT92 wrote:
GreyICE wrote:Come on, wagon scum to lynch by page 4.

Do it. DO IT


Town gains nothing by rushing for a quick lynch. Also you really haven't offered any significant criticisms of Kast, besides your sarcastic responses and posting about how much you want him lynched.

Town gains a lot from scum knowing that we don't have to sit around dragging our feet all day because it's really town to foot drag on lynching scum.

I love fast wagons, I love scum wagons, I love the uncertainty. Two of my favorite wagons both occurred in under six hours on day 1.

Kast posts suck. This is a good reason to lynch.


GreyICE in 80 wrote:Also, how many games have you played before Stevie? Legit question, because I'm curious as to you knowing what you do to people who are tracked or watched targeting a night kill. Watched really makes it a 'throw in the towel' on me trying to just play super town and get night killed fast as I can be town enough not to get copped/tracked but I can't dodge a watcher.
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Post Post #151 (isolation #3) » Wed Jun 22, 2011 4:44 am

Post by vollkan »

Amrun wrote:
Vollkan: it was more about the wording and the combination with the RV. Her waffling explanation of having a null (?) read on me demonstrates that she read enough to have reads and be able to generate them, and yet she makes an RV and expresses no suspicions. Why? It makes no sense. Also, it didn't seem to be a nullread - it seemed to be a town read with a couple of loopholes to allow for backtracking.


Amrun+5

Two problems with this:
1) She said your actions were scummy, but may have just been a mistake. It's expressed cumbersomely, but she's basically just declaring a nullread. Waffling is bad when it is used to be passive or to cover lack of content. Here, it is just a bad way of expressing things. I can't for the life of me see why you are reading it as scummy,
2) You emphasise the fact that she has a nullread and also RVs. What's the scumtell here? The whole point of RVing is to spark a game. The mere fact that some people have already committed game-relevant actions doesn't negate the appropriateness of RVing - and it certainly doesn't make it scummy.
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Post Post #192 (isolation #4) » Wed Jun 22, 2011 4:55 pm

Post by vollkan »

Lobster wrote:
im not too familiar here with your point system, but are you saying that amrun is twisting Pom's interpretation of amrun's cult post, and her rvs fos into something scummy that isn't? because Pom never said what amrun did was scummy, she said it was wierd. to me there is a big difference. to me, at the end pom said that she was cautiously leaning town, also not indicative of me of a pure null tell.


I see that Pom's already said that she meant it how I interpreted it. In terms of Amrun, the problem is that he keeps accusing Pom of waffling, non-committal, etc. (actually, the attack has changed from being non-committal, to waffling, to having an actual read (ie. committing) and yet also RVing), when in fact her position was clear. Having a null read on something does not equate to being non-committal.

Lobster wrote:
the interpretation of Pom's post here seems to be a bit off. to me, i dont see it as a roundabout way to get a null-tell, and i dont mind the rvs vote too much either. i see it as potentially scummy that she finds amrun's way of trying to describe the cult mention as not normal, i mean, what do you find not normal about the way amrun as defended herself? also, there was only 1 post amrun said that wasn't about the cult post, and all amrun did was ask questions to people (the one to ani was pretty bad), and say that she didnt see the case on kast, but didnt like his posts. i don't really like amruns post here, and i dont see why Pom does.

Pom's post gives me a vibe of fencesitting with a caution town label afterwards, it makes me wonder if perhaps there is some distancing going on here between amrun and Pom.


I don't think you can seriously deny that Amrun's actions were weird. In which case, I can't see why Pom is unreasonable in her view of it: namely, that it was weird but could be written off as a mistake.

Stevie wrote:
I'm also not voting GreyIce really because of his claim - he would indeed have to be an incredibly ballsy scum to come out with that day one. I'm voting him because his behavior since that claim has been extremely suspect.


Yup. GI is scum because he has done the right thing in claiming and is also refusing to give away any more information than he needs to.

:roll:
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Post Post #194 (isolation #5) » Wed Jun 22, 2011 5:07 pm

Post by vollkan »

LobsterCatapult wrote:
vollkan wrote:
Lobster wrote:
im not too familiar here with your point system, but are you saying that amrun is twisting Pom's interpretation of amrun's cult post, and her rvs fos into something scummy that isn't? because Pom never said what amrun did was scummy, she said it was wierd. to me there is a big difference. to me, at the end pom said that she was cautiously leaning town, also not indicative of me of a pure null tell.


I see that Pom's already said that she meant it how I interpreted it. In terms of Amrun, the problem is that he keeps accusing Pom of waffling, non-committal, etc. (actually, the attack has changed from being non-committal, to waffling, to having an actual read (ie. committing) and yet also RVing), when in fact her position was clear. Having a null read on something does not equate to being non-committal.

Lobster wrote:
the interpretation of Pom's post here seems to be a bit off. to me, i dont see it as a roundabout way to get a null-tell, and i dont mind the rvs vote too much either. i see it as potentially scummy that she finds amrun's way of trying to describe the cult mention as not normal, i mean, what do you find not normal about the way amrun as defended herself? also, there was only 1 post amrun said that wasn't about the cult post, and all amrun did was ask questions to people (the one to ani was pretty bad), and say that she didnt see the case on kast, but didnt like his posts. i don't really like amruns post here, and i dont see why Pom does.

Pom's post gives me a vibe of fencesitting with a caution town label afterwards, it makes me wonder if perhaps there is some distancing going on here between amrun and Pom.


I don't think you can seriously deny that Amrun's actions were weird. In which case, I can't see why Pom is unreasonable in her view of it: namely, that it was weird but could be written off as a mistake.

Stevie wrote:
I'm also not voting GreyIce really because of his claim - he would indeed have to be an incredibly ballsy scum to come out with that day one. I'm voting him because his behavior since that claim has been extremely suspect.


Yup. GI is scum because he has done the right thing in claiming and is also refusing to give away any more information than he needs to.

:roll:


amrun was acting wierdly, i never denied that, what i said was that wierd=/=scummy in terms of wording. if i said amrun was acting wierd, id consider that to have a different meaning than amrun was acting scummy.


Sure, the word "weird" in isolation doesn't mean "scummy". But Pom juxtaposed it being "weird" and her not "liking" it against her thinking it was potentially just a town mistake; which implies that weird was just being used instead of scummy. Now, that isn't technically a correct labelling, but it's hardly unusual for a person to use the word "weird" when they mean "scummy"
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Post Post #199 (isolation #6) » Wed Jun 22, 2011 5:39 pm

Post by vollkan »

StevieT92 wrote:
vollkan wrote:
Yup. GI is scum because he has done the right thing in claiming and is also refusing to give away any more information than he needs to.

:roll:

You're reaching..have you read my posts at all?


Yup. And for all your carping about him not answering questions about his claim and his rolename, you're ignoring the fundamental point which is that he may well have good reasons for not providing said information. In short, he becomes scummy because he doesn't play along with a thinly-veiled fishing expedition.
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Post Post #200 (isolation #7) » Wed Jun 22, 2011 5:40 pm

Post by vollkan »

SpyreX wrote:
Stewie wrote:I'm also not voting GreyIce really because of his claim - he would indeed have to be an incredibly ballsy scum to come out with that day one. I'm voting him because his behavior since that claim has been extremely suspect.


You just literally said you believe the claim and that scum wouldn't do it but then said you're voting him because hes scummy.

I think my face melted off


^ Also, this.
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Post Post #208 (isolation #8) » Wed Jun 22, 2011 6:16 pm

Post by vollkan »

SpyreX wrote:I got a PM about funny business.

Now there is funny business in that VC.

Not amused.

Time for sleep.


Just confirming that I didn't receive a PM.
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Post Post #212 (isolation #9) » Wed Jun 22, 2011 6:22 pm

Post by vollkan »

Amrun wrote:
Nocmen is on the Stevie wagon so I won't be getting on it - though I objectively see why the wagon exists and there are townreads also on it.


Again with the Lone Scumman Theory?

Especially in a large game, avoiding a wagon that you admit is valid based on the presence of ONE person you suspect makes absolutely no sense.
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Post Post #218 (isolation #10) » Wed Jun 22, 2011 6:33 pm

Post by vollkan »

Amrun wrote:Well, if I was totally convinced Stevie was scum, yes.

I see what other people are picking up on, but it doesn't really read as scummy to me. No textbook reason why... Just gut. He seriously reads like a newb, but he says he's not... I've been kind of distracted all day so I probably need to re-read the last couple of pages.


Amrun+5
, contingent on a Stevie scumflip.

In the previous post, his reason for not joining the wagon was that Nocmen was on it - despite the fact that he admitted to thinking the reasons for suspecting Stevie were valid.

NOW, when pressured about why he isn't joining the wagon, he makes a post which implies that the reason is that he just hasn't been paying enough attention, setting himself up for the "After re-reading, I now think my buddy is scum" bussing post.
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Post Post #229 (isolation #11) » Wed Jun 22, 2011 7:08 pm

Post by vollkan »

SpyreX wrote:Damn with the votecount being edited my shower-induced paranoia may not be true.

I'll talk about it more after but I'm fully expecting no one to chime in.

Lets just say if Stewie gets lynched and I die instead pay attention.


:? I get that you may have good reasons for not giving detailed information about this, but (if you think it is safe to do so) can you be clearer about how likely you think it is that Stevie would be lynch-swapped for you?


Amrun wrote:The Stevie wagon kind of got huge while I wasn't paying attention and I'm too tired to read closely now.

But overall, there have been a lot of flaws in his play, which people have picked up on - but flaws don't always mean scum. They can be a townie too loose with words that doesn't think enough - and my gut says stevie is that, especially woth his comment that he often has to post many times in a row because he thinks of stuff to add. That shows he doesn't carefully consider his posts, which I think scum wuld do more.

I was legitimately surprised when he insisted he was an experienced player because I never would have guessed it.

I see people picking up on the flaws in his play and I probably need to evaluate them individially to see if they come from a scum mindset, but when I read them the first time, they just seemed like a series of dumb mistakes with no over-arching agenda behind them. Gut says town on Stevie.

I wil look again when I have time but I doubt I wil ever support this wagon. It has enough validity that I don't think the people on it, especially early, are scum fabricating cases, but I just don't buy stevie as scum. I would hammer at deadline, but not before.


I don't think the bulk of the reasons for suspecting Stevie can be written off on the basis that he posts unthinkingly. He isn't simply being suspected for a series of possible mistakes.
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Post Post #260 (isolation #12) » Thu Jun 23, 2011 4:01 pm

Post by vollkan »

Amrun wrote:
Lobster isn't voting Stevie, but clearly supports the wagon, which is uncomfortable in and of itself.

I also suspect Pomegranate on the wagon, and her vote on it was particularly bad, coming right after she was called out for fencesitting/extending RVS.

Drewoftherushes I'm leaning scum on as well, but for no legitimate reason, just gut. Same with ace.


1) What is scummy about Lobster's position?
2) What was "particularly bad" about Pom's vote?
3) Pom was never "called out" for fencesitting/extending RVS - that was just a BS attack from you
4) "gut"....'nuff said
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Post Post #264 (isolation #13) » Thu Jun 23, 2011 7:11 pm

Post by vollkan »

Amrun wrote: 1) Read my wall above.


Sorry, I didn't want to respnod to it in full before Lobster has a chance to.

On the bit about the Stevie wagon in particular, though, I think her response is reasonable. There's nothing non-committal about saying you support one wagon, whilst also believing that another player is more suspicious.

Amrun wrote:
2) The timing. Someone mentioned her lack of serious vote, perhaps several someones, can't remember, and she comes and votes someone - and at the time of Pom's vote, Stevie hadn't done much to vote for.


Pom's vote came in #126, after FOSing Stevie in #92, both for valid reasons. I don't see how you can make it seem like she just jumped on in response to being pressured.
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Post Post #287 (isolation #14) » Fri Jun 24, 2011 4:32 pm

Post by vollkan »

Kast wrote:
-Short of it is I read n00b/weak player and I'm wary that his wagon is semi-scum driven to capitalize on his weak playstyle. I don't read any of the cases as being particularly scummy as opposed to being a n00b.


First, he's insisted that he isn't a newb. Beyond that, I think you are making the standard mistake of assuming that bad players are unreadable. All the points I raised against him were intention- rather than skill-related. Moreover, on the issue relating to his views on you specifically, he was using passive language; if he was simply having trouble being clear, I would have expected outright inconsistency, rather than the sort of subtlety that he was using.

Don't get me wrong - I do think he is a bad player (his score would probably be higher if I didn't), but I also think that, even allowing for that, he is the scummiest player here.
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Post Post #291 (isolation #15) » Sat Jun 25, 2011 3:37 am

Post by vollkan »

Starbuck wrote:
Amrun wrote:ZeL, that isn't a serious question... Is it?

Why would you ask this? I know if the dude just read the thread, he'd know, but it feels very offputting at this point from you.


What's offputting about it? Zel's question was pretty daft, so it seems perfectly legitimate to ask him if he'd read the thread...
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Post Post #317 (isolation #16) » Sat Jun 25, 2011 4:22 pm

Post by vollkan »

Amrun wrote:
Interested in hearing what Stevie has to say, but stop with the Stevie votes. Nocmen votes are sooo much sexier.


What CJ said - another
Amrun+5
contingent on Stevie scumflip

Iece wrote:
Oh man. Vollkan. You ended up flipping town in Disgaea 2, right?


Yup, just went back and checked - was also reminded of our big playstyle clash

Stevie wrote:
I'm not going to claim until the 8 or so players who haven't really posted or just got subbed into the game post their thoughts.


Reason being?
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Post Post #329 (isolation #17) » Sat Jun 25, 2011 10:19 pm

Post by vollkan »

Stevie wrote:
Reason being that there are a lot of them. I want to see what the have to say before i claim.


Because its likely that one of them will say something earth-shattering which then negates the need for you to claim?

Pfftt...obv-stalling is obv

malthusis wrote:
I just think you're a very inept townie, but there's no reason to stall for time.


This "inept town" meme needs to die. Bad players are just as likely to be scum as they are to be town. The only difference is that, with bad players, you shouldn't suspect as much/at all them for things which can simply be attributed to incompetence. As has repeatedly been said, Stevie isn't under suspicion for incompetence.
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Post Post #331 (isolation #18) » Sun Jun 26, 2011 5:02 am

Post by vollkan »

EBWOP:
Vollkan wrote:
Bad players are just as likely to be scum as they are to be town.


isn't correct. The sentence which follows it in my previous post clarifies what I mean, but just to be clear, what I am saying is that being a bad player makes no difference to whether or not somebody is likely scum or town.
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Post Post #404 (isolation #19) » Sun Jun 26, 2011 3:37 pm

Post by vollkan »

Iecerint wrote:And yeah, Rei's one of the 3 main characters, and an extremely popular one.

It's conceivable, if a longshot, that she could be scum, since she's a vessel for an Angel. She could also be a fakeclaim for someone like Kaworu, since they're both vessels for Angels, but he's a 3rd party one and she's pretty much town, albeit with blue and orange morality.


Also, nameclaim of a major character + refusal to fullclaim suggests a safeclaim.Though, Tar seems to think there is a good reason to unvote, so Stevie should NOT be hammered until Tar has elaborated.
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Post Post #421 (isolation #20) » Sun Jun 26, 2011 4:13 pm

Post by vollkan »

populartajo wrote:IM MORE ON THE SIDE THAT A SCUM WOULD HAVE FAKECLAIMED ALREADY, NOT ONLY ROLE BUT ALSO POWER, FLAVOR, ETC

BUT THEN IVE BEEN FOOLED BEFORE


Good point...if it was a safeclaim, I'd expect that he would have been more gung-ho about claiming.

Stevie wrote: I will explain my whole role and exactly why i refuse to claim today tomorrow. That is reasonable.


Okay.
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Post Post #451 (isolation #21) » Mon Jun 27, 2011 1:40 am

Post by vollkan »

populartajo wrote:candlejack, volkan, spyrex, ladylambadelta and iec

thoughts of lobster in following post pretty plz


I've disagreed with a few of Lobster's cases/arguments, but null alignment-wise. I don't see the apparently clear case against Lobster


Candle Jack wrote:
malthusis wrote:There's just something about Stevie's playstyle that seems to really clash with playstyle scum should have. Normally scum either stay in the weeds and try to appear inconspicious, or try to appear really pro-town to help manipulate lynches. Stevie seems to have tried to be helpful to the town by trying to making a case on someone, but seemed to trip on his own feet somewhere in saying it. If he was scum, why wouldn't have he just backed away as soon as he started messing up instead of just making more mistakes? He also seems to ignore defending himself, which makes more sense for a townie player then a scum player.

I also have good gut feeling that this is probably a mislynch, but unless Stevie has one hell of a claim (and now, don't do any retarded stalling!) I won't mind him being lynched at all.


Oh right I nearly forgot about this post. And malthusis being in this game in general, which is a bad thing.

Fellow 'Scummers, I played with malthusis-town. I modded malthusis-town. I know malthusis-town. malthusis, you're not malthusis-town.

And that, of course, means that you are scum. Especially given that last sentence (gut town read but wouldn't mind seeing player lynched my foot).

Unvote, Vote: malthusis


How does it not reflect malthusis-town?
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Post Post #493 (isolation #22) » Mon Jun 27, 2011 4:09 pm

Post by vollkan »

Nocmen wrote:
Note he does a few reasons for +5, but seems to add the +7 randomly. Was this just arbitrary to get a vote on Stevie? I don't see why it would only be +2 more than others, where you list a lot more reasons for him than Ace/CJ.


Frankly, I agree that it was probably too low a score. It arose because normally my scores are +5 (minor scumtell), +7 (moderate scumtell), +10 (major scumtells), with +10 generally being reserved for massive contradictions. I vaguely remember thinking "Stevie never made a major contradiction, so it merits +7". The difficulty with this, of course, is that it didn't maintain relativity with the other scores, by virtue of failing to independently value each tell.

If I had valued Stevie's tells independently, he'd be at 62. Of course, the actual difference this makes is minimal, since he'd still be leading.

Nocmen wrote:
What his posts do reflect on me is a better case on Lobster, for calling out Amrun's posts, yet Lobster isn't calling her scummy.


I don't recall attacking Lobster for callling out Amrun. I disagreed with Lobster for
agreeing
with Amrun in relation to Pom's post.

Nocmen wrote:
He adds a few more points to Amrun, and this is where I become suspicious, because at this point Amrun should be at 60, and Stevie at 57, with the vote staying on Stevie. I'm not sure if this is just an error (because of the low point assignment from earlier), but I would like to see an updated point listing from volk.


5 points were assigned to Amrun in his own right (bolded in my ISO), a further 10 points were relational tells to Stevie-scum (ie. essentially notes-to-self to add points on Amrun should Stevie flip scum).

The score chart as it currently stands is:

PlayerScore
Amrun55
Kawaii50
GreyICE50
Antifinity50
Candle Jack55
populartajo50
Iecerint50
Nocmen50
Surye50
Celeboki50
malthusis50
Starbuck50
ace539355
drewoftherushes50
ZeL1nk50
StevieT9257
Ghostwriter50
SpyreX50
Kast50
Pomegranate55
LobsterCatapult50
LadyLambdaDelta50


Given the current pause on Stevie, I need to reread to find a stronger suspect. I will start with Lobster and, if that affirms my current null position, I will reread those at 55.

LobsterCatapult wrote:
I think you being on Stevie's wagon is trying to get you townie points if stevie flips town


Should that second occurrence of "town" be "scum"? Because it doesn't make sense otherwise...
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Post Post #520 (isolation #23) » Mon Jun 27, 2011 6:30 pm

Post by vollkan »

populartajo wrote:
vollkan wrote:
LobsterCatapult wrote:
I think you being on Stevie's wagon is trying to get you townie points if stevie flips town


Should that second occurrence of "town" be "scum"? Because it doesn't make sense otherwise...

thoughts of this being a slip?


I don't see how it could be. LC just typed the word "townie"; it's hardly that far-fetched that she would then type "town" again by mistake. I'm also not sure what the scumslip would be - it's not like she's revealing any information.

Pomegranate wrote:
populartajo wrote:
Pomegranate wrote:Hi, okay. Could someone on the Noc wagon please summarize its main points? Because otherwise
I'm all for an LC lynch. Tajo's got a solid case, man. VOTE: LC.

what part of it did you like the most?


How her votes often didn't line up with her actual suspicions. IIRC, there was a post in which LC detailed in length specific things she found scummy of my play, and then promptly proceed to vote a lurker (malth?). I mean, WTH?


I don't think this attack is accurate. You make it sound like LC's voting post contained a detailed case against you, and then proceeded to simply vote Malthusis for lurking. I get why you would think that, but the problem with LC's post is subty different

Her attack on you:
LC wrote: pom's 41 was pretty garbage indeed, and she ended up reversing her vote like that. which.....in turn, i find a bit scummy. i find her 41 a bit scummy, and i feel after she got called out on it, she switched her vote to stevie at the soonest point she found acceptable. However, since i dont like stevie's posts about kast wagon, either, i think this is rather poor bussing/distancing. whatever.


And, moreover, her reasoning for voting malthusis was not his lurking:
LC wrote: however, i really don't like malthusis' vote right after it.

thus, taking my own advice, im going to vote malthusis.

unvote
vote:malthusis


Voting a scummy lurker over scummy actives is only scummy if the reason for voting the lurker is their lurking. That said, there is a problem with LC's post, but it isn't the one that you are identifying. It's that the reasons for suspecting malthusis are so much less developed.

@LC:
What did you mean by "taking my own advice"? I had a look in the previous posts to the above, and there was nothing which would explain why the malthusis vote had such little development, compared especially to your paragraph on Pom.


GreyICE wrote:
Nocmen wrote:
GreyICE wrote:Okay, I hate to piss on everyone's party, because I love this alliance, but I'm smelling town off LC. Not to toot my own horn, but I've seen scum LC before, called him midway through day 1 in SHR and this just ain't it.

My number one problem with LC was that his vote was sitting orphened on Malthusis (who had given me no reason to think he was town so it wasn't a terribad vote) until Mathusis started to build noise then he moved it over to Amrun. However, if we assume Malthusis is town, there's no scum motivation behind that move, and suddenly LC gets a whole lot less scummy for me. Besides which I think the reasoning in ISO #4,5, and 16 feels somewhat town.

I'd rather see a wagon on Amrun, or failing that do another reread with new info.


And why do you think Malth is town?

:neutral:

:?

:(

:mad:

:evil:

Vote: Malthusis


*confused*

Your argument is that one action by LC isn't a scumtell if malthusis is town. All that means is that the action might be a relational scumtell if malthusis is scum. It doesn't constitute a scumtell on its own in respect of malthusis.
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Post Post #526 (isolation #24) » Mon Jun 27, 2011 6:42 pm

Post by vollkan »

UNVOTE
(I unvoted in a previous post, but it seems to have been missed)

GreyICE wrote:
Ayiyi Malthisus was scummy until Nocmen made that one post then Nocmen made that other post that ate the first post and then well so etc. CJ saw it too.


So your argument is:
1) Malthusis is scummy in his own right; and
2) A further reason for lynching malthusis is it will shed light on LC's alignment?
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Post Post #530 (isolation #25) » Mon Jun 27, 2011 6:57 pm

Post by vollkan »

LC wrote:
pedit @volkan, i said to ace he should start his own wagons rather than just latching onto one that early on in the day. thus i tried to start on on malthusis. his lurking, other scummier suspects, stevies posts, and my own lack of claification on my vote had rendered my wagon attempt failed.


I'm in two minds about this. On the one hand, this doesn't make sense to me - you can't start a wagon by voting somebody and then simply saying, in a one-line case, that their last vote was bad. But, at the same time, I can't see any real scum incentive for this - it's useless, but that's about it.
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Post Post #643 (isolation #26) » Tue Jun 28, 2011 4:34 pm

Post by vollkan »

Surye wrote:VOTE: GreyICE I'd like to see this be the new wagon, I think it's much better than LC. LC's fluff-as-content is annoying, perhaps scummy, but not damning enough for me. But GI's claim is damaging to town, barely provable without his own death, arrogant superreads based on nothing, and everything in my read, this is where my vote is happy.


GI is playing here exactly how GI always plays. At times, I find it annoying - but it isn't scummy.

Anyway, since I discussed the LC case in my previous post, and still found that I don't like it, I am going to ISO Amrun as promised.

Amrun ISO

0: Cult reference is null
17: scummy, for reasons indicated previously.

----
Ugh...just received a message that my hard drive is failing and I need to back up or repair :eek: I'll be back later
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Post Post #696 (isolation #27) » Thu Jun 30, 2011 8:08 pm

Post by vollkan »

Hi all, just chiming in to say that my computer issues have been resolved (or, rather, I had to buy a new PC). I will catch up shortly
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Post Post #698 (isolation #28) » Thu Jun 30, 2011 10:40 pm

Post by vollkan »

Responding to posts I missed:
GI wrote:
@SpyreX: what do you think of Amrun and an Amrun wagon?

Same question to Vollkan.


Minorly scummy in his own right, with fairly strong relational tells to Stevie. Amrun is obviously much better than no lynch (or any of my '50s'), but I think my read on the likelihood of Amrun-scum will be more accurate tomorrow after Stevie explains everything as agreed.

GI wrote:
EVERY SINGLE PERSON IN THIS THREAD WHO IS NOT VOTING KAST AFTER THIS POST WILL GIVE ME A GOOD REASON WHY OR I WILL HUNT YOU DOWN AFTER THE KAST SCUMFLIP.


I don't see the case against him. In the Nocmen example you quoted, he is arguing that Nocmen's position is invalid because it is based on a terrible premise: that all town will be motivated to vote. I admit I am talking as somebody who also hates that mentality, but it's a completely legitimate response. GI, what are you suggesting? That Kast should have simply ignored the fact that he thinks the whole basis of Nocmen's argument is bad?

Similarly, the Ace example is just the standard case of mild ad hominem ("Ace is dense and misreading") being spun into some kind of grand conspiracy to discredit people.

The Surye and Tajo dismissals are less reasonable, and do merit
Kast+5


The LLD one, however, I also disagree with you on. LLD herself has admitted that her town reads are simply plucked from the aether, and having better-justified scumreads doesn't excuse that. Tbh, I think this is less of an alignment tell for LLD as it is a general problem with the concept of townreads, but either way I don't think it's scummy for Kast to discredit such a playstyle
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Post Post #705 (isolation #29) » Fri Jul 01, 2011 4:05 am

Post by vollkan »

GI wrote:
Why that's... substantially different than how it appears from the rebuttal, isn't it? Why it's almost like Kast is creating a made up position that he's misrepresenting onto his detractor, and then rebutting that completely fictitious position in his posts. Damn I need a less wordy name for that.


I wanted to check this out for myself, and I'm glad I did. Not the result you were probably hoping for, but
Nocmen+5


Nocmen in 35 accuses Kast of "feeling the waters with those comments. By mentioning what you don't like, but yet not voting."

Kast's response in 59 is entirely to point: "@Nocmen-There's a difference between stating what you think and asking people if it's ok to think what you think. The "town must vote immediately" mindset is ridiculous and needs to be killed. I think I've been spoiled by playing mostly games with competent playerbases where this stuff doesn't need to be explained." I don't see how this can reasonably be read as anything other than a direct response to the accusation that he was "feeling the waters" (ie. that there is, as he says, a difference between giving your own opinion - which isn't scummy - and dangling things for other people's approval - which is)

Nocmen clarifies his original attack in 81 with the point you just quoted to me: "@Kast: There's a difference between posting fluff and posting reads. Votes don't always need to happen, but I will go after someone for not posting any reads, making it too easy for scum to get away with that. Also, you seem very against Grey's claim, and if you are...why aren't you voting him?"

For context, the "comments" that Nocmen was initially referring to in 35 were:
Kast wrote: @CandleJack/Morph-
Opportunistic much?

@Anti/Ace-
Feeling the waters? Not liking these posts.

@GreyIce-
Please clarify if your claim is serious.
-If so, does your power ALSO prevent a watcher from seeing the ACTUAL culprit? (This should be a no-brainer to share if you're seriously claiming)
-Would your ability false track to protected and/or kill immune targets (ie. failed kill attempts)?


What's my point?


Clearly, Nocmen's issue is with the first two of those three. Now, those comments are both pretty clear in meaning - CJ/morph is opportunistic and Anti/ace seems to be feeling the waters. Both of these things are widely-recognised scumtells and Kast's post is, therefore, reasonably clear that he is indicating suspicion (however mild) of CJ and Anti.

Nocmen's 35 pretty clearly shows that Nocmen knows that Kast is saying he doesn't like the aforementioned conduct from CJ/morph and Anti/Ace (ie. Nocmen appears well-aware that Kast is expressing suspicion). Nocmen's problem appears to be that Kast is not following up is comments with voting. In which case, 59 is a perfectly sensible response to make. As Kast himself said in 113, Nocmen's initial attack appeared to be about the absence of a vote, and then he varies it to instead be about fluff (well, actually, Nocmen makes a general theory point about the difference between reads and fluff - he never actually explained why what Nocmen had posted was fluff).

GI wrote:
What Kast is doing is implying that a lack of reasoning displayed for her town reads also correlates to a lack of reasoning for her scum reads. Which she correctly notes he doesn't address, except to throw more shit at her and hope it sticks.


This issue is a bit harder to follow. You're saying that Kast's reasoning is something like:
1) LLD's town reads are unreasoned (I note that LLD has explained that they aren't unreasoned, and that what she meant was not that she doesn't "need" reasons, but just that she doesn't need to POST them)
2) LLD's scum reads are sheeped from her town reads
3) Therefore, LLD's scumreads are BS

?
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Post Post #730 (isolation #30) » Sat Jul 02, 2011 3:42 am

Post by vollkan »

GreyICE wrote:@Vollkan: No.

I'm saying that Kast's presented line of argument is such:

1) LLD's town reads do not have well presented reasons.
2) Her scum reads match the scum reads of many of her town reads.
3) Therefore she is not engaging in independent reasoning, and all of her reads have no valid reasoning behind them

It's not a line of reasoning, it's bullshit flim-flam you throw around to discredit people.


@Kast:
Is the above accurate?

GreyICE wrote:
Candle Jack wrote:
Kast is at L-2.

Hold the F up.

Unvote

No.

Lets hammer scum without a claim.


I know this sort of largesse is sort of part of your playstyle...but how on earth is this helpful?
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Post Post #748 (isolation #31) » Sat Jul 02, 2011 7:31 pm

Post by vollkan »

GreyICE wrote:
vollkan wrote:
I know this sort of largesse is sort of part of your playstyle...but how on earth is this helpful?

How is it helpful to leave scum alive longer? How is it helpful to unvote them? How is it helpful to see if they get some more time to come up with a brand new claim idiot townies will believe?

It takes seconds to claim, and a lifetime to fabricate the perfect claim.

I want Kast dead. Whyever would I sanction people unvoting because they think he's dying TOO QUICKLY? There's no mass claim situation, no need to coordinate night actions, no reason to hold up a wagon on scum to see if someone has a cool new saying.

I agree short days are bad for the town. We're on page 30. Day hasn't been short.

I see town voting for a scumbag that everyone has had in the back of their minds as scummy, and hasn't really wanted to say anything because a few people have him as town, and he bites the head off anyone who criticizes him, insults and belittles them, AND GETS THE FUCK AWAY WITH IT.

It's not a playstyle disagreement. My problem is that the specific playstyle has a name - SCUM.

And I'm going to fucking lynch that.


I know that self-doubt and criticism are kind of alien concepts to you, but if you imagine for even a moment that you might be wrong about Kast, it makes sense to wait for a claim so that you can ensure you are lynching on maximum information.
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Post Post #753 (isolation #32) » Sun Jul 03, 2011 5:27 pm

Post by vollkan »

ZeL1nK wrote:I'd still much rather see Malthusis dead than Kast.

#721 and no subsequent post is really making me consider the possibility that he's lurking while hoping the lynch goes through without him needing to have any input on it.


Looking at his ISO, he has two previous large (> 3 day) gaps in posting, so I don't think his current lurking can be attributed the motive that you are suggesting.
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Post Post #757 (isolation #33) » Sun Jul 03, 2011 5:51 pm

Post by vollkan »

Antifinity wrote:
I would be interested to hear a claim, if only because he seems liable to give more information than necessary (ie, revealing his belief in other scum factions).


Aside from what SpyreX and Tar have already noted, I'm puzzled by the second part of the above "if only because...etc". Do you mean that you'd be opposed to his claiming if he didn't have the tendency you allege?

The reason this is important is that conditioning your support for a claim on a weird point like this has the effect of making your support passive - as in, you aren't advocating claiming
per se
, since you are advocating it for an ancillary reason. So, I'd like to know why you think his tendency to give information away (and, in answer to Tar, why you think he has said tendency) alone justifies claiming.
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Post Post #759 (isolation #34) » Sun Jul 03, 2011 6:13 pm

Post by vollkan »

ZeL1nK wrote:
vollkan wrote:Looking at his ISO, he has two previous large (> 3 day) gaps in posting, so I don't think his current lurking can be attributed the motive that you are suggesting.


Yeah, I'm taking that into account, but with the speed at which the Kast wagon built, his "need to read on Kast" with no follow-up looks opportunistic.


What exactly is the "opportunism" here? If he was joining or supporting the wagon, I'd understand where you are coming from. But, as you yourself pointed out in your previous post, he is lurking.
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Post Post #764 (isolation #35) » Sun Jul 03, 2011 6:48 pm

Post by vollkan »

ZeL1nK wrote:If the Kast wagon dies in his absence, he avoids taking a firm stance on Kast while Kast is under pressure.

If the Kast wagon goes through, he can say that the lack of stance on Kast was due to being inactive.


Ehh...it's not what I'd normally call "opportunism", but your argument is legitimate enough that this is now just a semantic debate. As I said though, he's lurked enough already that I don't think anything can be read into his current delay - at least given that it's currently only been two days.
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Post Post #781 (isolation #36) » Mon Jul 04, 2011 5:44 pm

Post by vollkan »

GreyICE wrote:
Pomegranate wrote:
ZeL1nK wrote:er, Kast went from 0 votes to 9 votes in 24 hours.


Basically, this alone makes me not like the wagon. Actually, scratch that; the fact that I didn't see Kast as
that
scummy in addition to the wagon blowing up overnight makes me not like it. And what
Iec
said about it being the end of the day, ergo townies being more willing to vote &c.

Hmmmmmmmmmmmm

Interesting Pom. I've seen 3 wagons I'd call 'flash wagons' that shot out of nowhere so far. Two hit scum.

Obviously past results indicators future results yadda yadda yadda but would you say scum are more likely to be fast and loose with their vote, or conservative and play it safe?


This is the sort of over-generalisation that underpins boilerplate scumtells. Many people play conservatively as scum. Many people will play more haphazardly and/or opportunistically. For some, opportunism vs conservatism will be alignment-independent.

Either way, there are good reasons, based if nothing else on the quality of reasoning, which make flash wagons generally a bad thing.
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Post Post #784 (isolation #37) » Tue Jul 05, 2011 3:16 am

Post by vollkan »

GreyICE wrote:
vollkan wrote:This is the sort of over-generalisation that underpins boilerplate scumtells. Many people play conservatively as scum. Many people will play more haphazardly and/or opportunistically. For some, opportunism vs conservatism will be alignment-independent.

Either way, there are good reasons, based if nothing else on the quality of reasoning, which make flash wagons generally a bad thing.

I'm confused. Are you saying flash wagons always have poor reasoning, or that
this specific
wagon has poor reasoning? Certainly for someone who just accused me of over-generalizing saying every fast-moving wagon has poor reasoning is an over-generalization par excellence.


Neither. I am saying that flash wagons
generally
involve poorer reasoning than most wagons - since pretty much by definition they are a wagon where there is less deliberation than normal. Of course, a flash wagon might well spring up for very legitimate reasons (eg. somebody claiming scum), but I suspect such cases are a minority.
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Post Post #851 (isolation #38) » Tue Jul 05, 2011 6:26 pm

Post by vollkan »

GreyICE wrote:
vollkan wrote:Neither. I am saying that flash wagons
generally
involve poorer reasoning than most wagons - since pretty much by definition they are a wagon where there is less deliberation than normal. Of course, a flash wagon might well spring up for very legitimate reasons (eg. somebody claiming scum), but I suspect such cases are a minority.


So you would say that speed is inherently no reason to believe that a wagon is on town, simply that it is a reason to believe there hasn't been a long debate? Because I think you overlook something - debate does not need to occur in context of L-1

Saying that we haven't been discussing Kast's alignment is false. Plenty of people have been poking at it, the fact that votes are going where the mouths have been is good juju in my book.


It really isn't that complicated:
1) Speed has a direct and inverse correlation to the extent of deliberation.
2) The extent of deliberation has a strong correlation to accuracy
3) Therefore, speed has a strong inverse correlation to accuracy

Plenty of people have been discussing it, but so far most of the votes have been sheeping and I don't believe that the reasons against the wagon have been given proper weight.

Tar wrote:
DIE DIE DIE MR. SCUMCLAIM WHOSE CLAIMED ROLENAME IS THE MOST LIKELY SAFECLAIM IN THE ENTIRE GAME IMO.

Seriously, untargetable + vig + Misato = no mercy.


What's the reasoning behind the Misato point?
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Post Post #857 (isolation #39) » Tue Jul 05, 2011 7:10 pm

Post by vollkan »

Zel wrote:
I have issues with that claim. You may call in an Airstrike to bombard enemy targets. Keyword: "targets". But you're a one-shot? Also, I don't see how being completely untargetable could possibly be a town ability. Immunity to every investigative ability, every killing ability, every ability full-stop? That sounds more like some sort of godfather/serial killer ability. If you don't die today, you need to die somewhere down the line.


The "targets" point is weaker (though, the flavour point about airstriking not being something that fits with the show is correct, from as little as I remember about the show) and a reasonable error, but legitimate. The immunity ability itself point is, the more I think about it, not a "town" role.
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Post Post #862 (isolation #40) » Tue Jul 05, 2011 7:29 pm

Post by vollkan »

Tar wrote:
Simple thought process: If I was making an Evangelion game where characters need safeclaims, what would be the first safeclaim I hand out? A: Misato. Not foolproof, but tends to work well.


This doesn't answer my question at all.

Maybe this is a product of me not having watched NGE in ages...but I just can't see why Misato is an obvious safeclaim.

Tar wrote:
Gut is REALLY not liking vollkan right now, and posts like this are part of the reason why.


Because I'm openly on the fence in relation to malthusis's claim?

The "targets" thing is a semantic point, and whilst the ability itself is something that rings alarm bells, this is a theme game so 'expect the unexpected' is always worth bearing in mind.
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Post Post #865 (isolation #41) » Tue Jul 05, 2011 7:39 pm

Post by vollkan »

Candle Jack wrote:vollkan, who is scum here?



PlayerScore
Amrun55
Kawaii50
GreyICE50
Antifinity50
Candle Jack55
populartajo50
Iecerint50
Nocmen55
Surye50
Celeboki50
malthusis50
Starbuck50
ace539355
drewoftherushes50
ZeL1nk50
StevieT9257
Ghostwriter50
SpyreX50
Kast55
Pomegranate55
LobsterCatapult50
LadyLambdaDelta50
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Post Post #868 (isolation #42) » Tue Jul 05, 2011 7:49 pm

Post by vollkan »

Candle Jack wrote:The problem is vollkan, your last 'plus' came over ten of your posts ago, and those posts have been filled with very logical and well reasoned arguments and theory, but what they haven't been filled with is a general spearheaded strike to demolish someone you think is scum. You aren't even pushing on anyone, really, at this stage in the game, your vote isn't on, and more.

Its almost a guarantee you aren't being lynched today, but I'd like to see something more than the middle of the road path you've embarked on recently if you're are town.


I think it's inaccurate to describe it as "arguments and theory". Most of my recent posting history has been my opposition to the Kast wagon, including questioning of its supporters. It didn't lead to points, but I think my reasoning process is clear enough as to why that was the case. I get frustrated by the notion that a player is only contributing if they are positively building a case - rather than investigating to see if there are grounds for suspicion (eg. by questioning people's motives) or by actively opposing an existing case/wagon that they perceive to be invalid.

Also, I've only been "middle of the road" in relation to malthusis's claim, and I've been explicit about my reasons as to why.
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Post Post #906 (isolation #43) » Wed Jul 06, 2011 5:56 pm

Post by vollkan »

GreyICE wrote:Not Voting (5) - Kawaii, vollkan, Starbuck, malthusis, Antifinity

This has got to be the biggest port of failure I've ever seen. Everyone on that list should die.


Other than Stevie, who I'm not voting today, I have six people tied at second place. Voting any one of those six would be just a meaningless gesture to satisfy the "You must vote! Rah!" crowd.
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Post Post #921 (isolation #44) » Sun Jul 10, 2011 12:44 am

Post by vollkan »

Feeling pretty stupid after mal's flip :(

Anyway, now waiting on CJ and Stevie
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Post Post #963 (isolation #45) » Sun Jul 10, 2011 10:51 am

Post by vollkan »

Lady Lambdadelta wrote:
Antifinity wrote:The "Magi Complete System Check" followed by the "The game state may have changed, although you're not certain how" thing makes me suspect the Magi masons may no longer all be town.


Vote: Antifinity


Reaks of Insider Info.


How familiar are you with the show? Because the flavour makes Anti's line of speculation fairly obvious, definitely not "reeking of insider info".

LLD wrote:
I'm not sure I'm willing to make that logical leap just yet. I want to see the results of this investigation...


Again, it's hardly a "logical leap". We know that Kast targeted CJ, and we know that something bad appears to have happened to the Magi. The only problem is that, for obvious reasons, CJ isn't a reliable aide in determining what happened.

Tajo wrote: However, as I said yesterday, this ability is some sort of convoluted "doc-cop-mason combo" which is imbalanced for scum and I still havent researched what kdubmod thinks about this. Also, Kasttown means that pretty much he should be dead by now unless someone messed with the kill, which i guess, is possible in night 1.


You're saying Kast-recruiter is imba if he also performs an upgrade on the Magi?

In a large theme game, which tend to be PR-heavy, that's not really true. It's powerful, but hardly imba.

LLD wrote: 1) Stevie claims in next post or dies.
2) CJ Claims Target and Alignment of his day cop in next post, or dies.
3) Kast explains if there is ANYTHING in his power that could have to do with "corruption".


I agree with all of these. However, given the possibility that CJ is corrupted, should we vote on his investigation target?

I can see the argument for letting CJ choose and using that as alignment-relevant info, but I think controlling it is probably more valuable (accounting for how "Valuable" his investigation is in the circumstnaces)

GI wrote:
No I have a better idea, lets lynch Kast.

Upsides:

- We have one claimed Magi computer, one claimed Magi targeter, and one case of mod-confirmed shenanigans. This is the most obvious case of 2+2 I've ever seen, and I don't see why the speculation is ever going to fade. It's not like CJ can day cop Kast and then say 'oh well he's town' here.
- The 'town' masons aren't confirmed town anymore. Period. Scum Kast tells us CJ-scum is now a fact, and probably goes a long way towards confirming the infection (I imagine if Kast is scum, CJ will claim to have been cleansed tomorrow, but my belief in this will be ABSOLUTE ZERO).
- DEAD KAST! Like... twist my motherfucking arm.

Anyone suggesting another lynch will have to explain why they think CJ is still town, and why Kast is town in the first place.


As you said, it's a clear case of 2+2, but we'd be silly to lynch when we there is still information that we can gather today (see: LLD three points above)
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Post Post #1024 (isolation #46) » Sun Jul 10, 2011 6:29 pm

Post by vollkan »

Stevie wrote:
Secondly, I recieved an unexpected pm from the mod last night indicating that it was Spyrex who got recruited last night.


I understand that you may not want to give too much information away about this if it is an investigative power or something, but can you confirm whether or not this has anything to do with your role.

CJ wrote: Nevertheless, I investigated SpyreX because of his message and my own misgivings, and got a result that SpyreX is 'sided with the Angels'.


Vote: SpyreX
(that's L-2, 10 out of 12)

SpyreX wrote:
Flavor says Magi's are infected.


No it doesn't. The only mention of the Magi is in this line:
Flavour wrote:
Gendo:
If we can't find it, unseal the cages. If the Angel got in here or to one of the Eva units before we could stop it, we'll need to hunt it down. Have the Magi run a complete systems check, and make sure they look everywhere. Trust nothing and nobody. Stay alert...


Which is ambiguous...

SpyreX wrote:
Additionally, before the day ends it MAY really be worth the other Magi coming out - if this was all a clever ruse on Tar's part it gets exposed OR if Tar's been scumm'd the other two will be known to scum.


Even if I entertained this conspiracy theory, why on earth would it be a good idea for the other Magi to claim?
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Post Post #1027 (isolation #47) » Sun Jul 10, 2011 6:33 pm

Post by vollkan »

SpyreX wrote:Because if it ends up Kise flips Magi-Scummaker then you know who's done gonna be targetted?


Because if Kast is a Magi-scummaker, obviously the best thing we could do is have the Magi-masons present themselves to Kast on a platter :roll:

SpyreX wrote:
Or, if you go Magi claim and no one claims welp.


Then we know they have been scummified. Either way, your plan ENSURES that they are scummified.
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Post Post #1030 (isolation #48) » Sun Jul 10, 2011 6:37 pm

Post by vollkan »

SpyreX wrote:If Kast IS a Magi-Scummaker the scum WILL KNOW via CJ who they are come on now.


Ugh... :( I hadn't thought that far ahead.

I guess balancewise that would explain the flavour alert.
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Post Post #1036 (isolation #49) » Sun Jul 10, 2011 8:22 pm

Post by vollkan »

Iecerint wrote:
CJ's confirmation of the ability working in-thread actually fits with this version, given that he is scum and not mundanely empowered.


I don't understand this. You're saying that CJ confirming that Kast's ability worked makes him more likely to be scum?
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Post Post #1038 (isolation #50) » Sun Jul 10, 2011 10:11 pm

Post by vollkan »

Iecerint wrote:
2. When players are recruited, they sometimes are not able to communicate privately with the broader scumteam.


I'm not after a huge meta-trawl, but how common is that?
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Post Post #1051 (isolation #51) » Mon Jul 11, 2011 2:57 am

Post by vollkan »

Having four players entangled with one another was confusing the hell out of me, so I spent some time going through every scenario.

Lynch of Kast

Result: Scum

Implications:

CJ: Depends on whether Kast flips as a scummifier (in which case, obviously P(CJ-scum) skyrockets) or, as GI as just suggested, something else like a scum inventor, in which case it is null.
SX: More likely town no matter what Kast's role (because if CJ was recruited, he is more likely to be lying, and if Kast is a scum dud inventor, then it is possible SX is being framed or something)
Stevie: I don't really know what to make of Stevie in any scenario that follows, other than that there is somewhat of a inverse correlation between Stevie's and SX's alignments (ie. Stevie-town makes SX-scum more likely, and vice-versa)

Result: Town

Implications:

CJ: Obviously less likely to be scum than before, though the flavour means that there are still good grounds for concerns about possible recruitment
SX: More likely scum, but qualified to the extent that the flavour creates cause for doubt over CJ and, thus, the claimed investigation result
Stevie: See above

Lynch of CJ

Result: Scum

Implications:

Kast: CJ was a mason; Kast targeted CJ; CJ became scum. It follows that Kast is more likely scum than otherwise.
SX: MUCH more likely to be town, the only exception being a gambit by CJ to claim guilty on a partner
Stevie: See above

Result: Town

Implications:

Kast: Conversely to the above, Kast becomes more likely town here.
SX: MUCH more likely to be scum
Stevie: See above

Lynch of SX

Result: Scum

Implications:

CJ: MUCH more likely to be town (absent gambitting)
Kast: Insofar as CJ is more likely town, Kast is more likely town (obviously, the correlation is being filtered down a level)
Stevie: See above


Result: Town

Implications:

CJ: MUCH more likely to be scum
Kast: Insofar as CJ is more likely scum, Kast is more likely scum (obviously, the correlation is being filtered down a level)
Stevie: See above


Lynch of Stevie

Result: Scum

Implications:

See above


Lynch of Stevie

Result: Town

Implications:

See above



So what have we learned?


It's basically a direct chain of probability in either direction, with the reliability of the implications diminishing the further you move away from any given player.

Red = SCUM-SCUM
Green = SCUM-TOWN
Kast
<---------------------------->
CJ
<---------->
Spyrex
<------------------------------------------------------------------->
Stevie


Stevie's separation from Spyrex is longer than every other one to represent the fact that any information about or derived from Stevie is much less reliable than information about anybody else. Similarly, because I think recruitment/non-recruitment of CJ is more likely than an inventor role, I think the link of CJ-SX is stronger (and thus shorter) than the link of CJ-Kast.

This means that Stevie is the most useless lynch. However, with his score, and thinking he is also the one I am most confident of individually being scum.

SX and CJ are roughly equivalent in terms of usefulness, though CJ's mason status makes me inherently favour SX's lynch over his.

I don't see lynching Kast as particularly helpful, since I don't buy the case on him and a Kast scumflip wouldn't confirm CJ as scum.

SOOO, it's either SX or Stevie. Since I think Stevie is more likely scum at this point, it follows that his lynch should come first and any talk of lynchng SX should be postponed unless and until furter information comes to light

Unvote, Vote: Stevie
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Post Post #1053 (isolation #52) » Mon Jul 11, 2011 3:33 am

Post by vollkan »

ZeL1nK wrote:I could get behind a stevie lynch. He claimed a scum ability.

The only issue I have with that is that this Spyrex/Kast/CJ issue needs to be resolved one way or the other at some point, and delaying that with double stevie lynches seems pointless.


True. The double-lynch factor makes the information-value of a Stevie lynch lower, at least in the immediate term. I'm not sure that outweighs the fact that he is the most likely scum; though, nothing is really clear-cut in this sort of situation.
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Post Post #1073 (isolation #53) » Mon Jul 11, 2011 10:29 am

Post by vollkan »

populartajo wrote:i also dont get framer paranoia when we have

a) a supposed day investigation that gives a guilty on Spyrex.

b) a supposed night investigation that gives a guilty on Spyrex.

I dont know if Im missing anything or not but lynching anyone but Spyrex today seems pretty useless, let alone the stevie lynch that gives zero input on the situation.

BONUS: we get cult confirmation or not.


The cult confirmation is a really good point, and wasn't part of my inter-player analysis. Stevie is the most likely scum, but if that means not knowing about the cult for two days, then SX makes more sense.
Unvote, Vote: SpyreX
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Post Post #1075 (isolation #54) » Mon Jul 11, 2011 10:31 am

Post by vollkan »

Stevie wrote:Secondly, I recieved an unexpected pm from the mod last night indicating that it was Spyrex who got recruited last night.
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Post Post #1136 (isolation #55) » Thu Jul 14, 2011 7:10 pm

Post by vollkan »

I see that I am at L-1. Don't have time to read up immediately, but:

Claim: Asuka Langley Soryu

I have a 2-shot passive PGO ability called "Aggressive Tendencies"
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Post Post #1140 (isolation #56) » Thu Jul 14, 2011 7:40 pm

Post by vollkan »

Meh....

Vote: Vollkan

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