Any Band U-Pick (Town Wins)

[Trumpet of Doom]

Cue mood music.

Hi Nik, hi Juls, hi Seraphim. I'm 99.44% sure you're the only ones here I've played with.
Hi Parama, hi CSL. I've modded you two (and Nik, but he's mentioned above).
Hi gorilla. I'm backup modding a game you're in right now.
That should be all of you I have any game-related reason to know.

I've been kinda-sorta-not-really following the game thus far. Focused readthrough will commence momentarily; if anyone would like to summarize the game up to this point, knock yourselves out.

[Trumpet of Doom]

(WARNING: WALLPOST AHEAD)

So here's my take on band claiming:
Since PRs are determined based on the songs of the band that the first player in a player slot picked, having original players claim their bands seems like a very subtle way for scum to figure out who might have a PR. It's not necessarily going to help them a whole lot, but I'm fairly sure that scum-ToD would put a fair amount of time into analyzing something like that. (Yes, I see Gaoth 21. No, it doesn't convince me that it's a good idea.)
It really doesn't matter whether replacements like me claim bands or not, since it doesn't reflect on our potential roles at all.

Furry's dayvig attempt shows that he's never played in a game with a real daykill. Daykills don't end the day, that's why they're called daykills instead of forcelynches. And considering that he's trying to play it as confirming him as town... yeah, not good at all. (Has Furry read the Storm of Swords game that wrapped up a month or two ago?)
Juls' daykill, OTOH, comes off as very slightly town - I see town as a hair more likely than scum to try to pull a fake-DK that soon after a may-or-may-not-be-real DK (and although the "I was reaction fishing" claim later makes me *twitch* a bit, I don't know how much that's me thinking it's scummy and how much that's just it being one of my pet peeves; besides, I'd expect Juls to know how to interpret any results she got, so I'll let it slide).

Powerrox 72 feels off.

@Ani - I just want to make sure, but your case is
1) I faked a daykill and kept the act up
2) I am trying to look town

For the record, 2) is a perfectly legitimate reason to vote somebody, especially with the qualifier ani adds in 148. I've caught scum with it before. I've caught scum on page 2 with it before.

DH 151 is -worthy.

Pb 186: Need I remind you that "scum would never do X" is a decent reason for scum to do X? I'll have the waiter come bring you another bottle of wine.
188: ...If you're town, you've got some pretty impressive cognitive dissonance going.

people who think Furry is scum: any sort of theory that involves Furry being scum and doing what he just did must also involve ani being scum with him.

Disagree (duh). Furry-scum could easily pull the "sure, I would [fake a daykill] as town" card.

nintendo 207: I'm starting to remember why I thought you were scum before I got my role PM. 207, etc. are horrendous.

epm 261 I can definitely read as a scumslip (see diddin 276), although there definitely is an alternate interpretation. Odds are high that epm and diddin are not scum together.

I'm tired of getting mislynched on D1.

...then play better or replace into games. How is that a problem for any of us to solve/care about?

gorilla 383: quit lurking
Also, "2scum4scum" is a dangerous path to walk down. Steer clear of it if you possibly can.

Groundsel 404: Um, I don't think Furry was actually getting a whole lot of towncred for it. Could just be my imagination talking, though.

---------------------------

So reads:

Gaoth: Leaning scum, largely on gut.
AntB: who? Null, maybe leaning scum a tiny bit, but I need more to work with.
DemonHybrid: Town, I suspect.
Regfan: (Oh right, you're in DEFCON 3 along with gorilla. Sorry for leaving you out earlier. ) Null.
diddin: On play alone, null, possibly leaning scum; however, less scum than epm, so likely town IMO.
Parama: Null. Nothing to work with.
Parabollocks: Scum.
Pine: Null.
CSL: Leaning town, though I'm not convinced about post 5 being a townslip

as much as some of you are

.
Powerrox93: Leaning scum, but it's not a strong read.
nintendoaddict1: Scum. Post 207 onward - his terrible attack on Seraphim and his heavy AtE.
Seraphim: Leaning town.
Furry: Scum. You're not confirmed town until a power role comes forward with a result clearing you, scum attack you in a way that is Obviously Not Bussing, or you massively townslip like hohum in Open 180 (Nik knows what I'm talking about). None of those has happened, and trying to say you're conftown without a reason to believe you is baaaaaaaaaad.
Juls: Leaning town.
Nikanor: Town, though the fact that he's posting prolifically elsewhere but not here is giving me pause.

Trumpet of Doom: Godlike town.

Groundsel: Leaning town.
Cogito Ergo Sum: Null. He's playing similarly in another game I volunteered to /replace into, so I might be willing to give him townpoints for it, but not ATM.
evilpacman18: Scum trying hard to earn "no actual scum would

possibly

be that scummy, so he must not be scum" status. It ain't gonna work.
gorilla: Leaning town.

Or, to put them in categories: (There's no order within the categories, BTW.)
TOWN
Nik
DH

LEANING TOWN
diddin
gorilla
Groundsel
Juls
Seraphim
CSL

NULL
AntB
Regfan
Parama
Pine
CES

LEANING SCUM
Gaoth
Powerrox

SCUM
epm
Furry
nintendo
Parabollocks

[Trumpet of Doom]

So wait... you have a Null read that might be a leaning scum read on Ant, but you need more content from him? If you don't have enough content from him, why post a read on him at all?

So people know where I stand on everyone. Which is what you're supposed to do when you replace into a game.

And your read on diddin. You call him null, leaning scum, and likely town all in one sentence. Something is off here.

See, it's not just

his

play that's factoring into that read. If it were, he'd be towards the scummy edge of null, as mentioned. But as explained earlier in the post, I don't think he's scum with epm; until/unless I see evidence of two scum teams, I will assume that means a maximum of one of them can be scum, and since I think epm is likely scum, that means diddin is likely town. Got that?

I would actually like an explanation for what connection with EPM makes diddin more town.

diddin's 276 was the first post to call epm's 261 a scumslip. I don't think a scumpartner would be the first person to point that out, and it's not like it was an excuse to jump on a wagon that had just started going somewhere, so I don't see it as a bus.

@trumpet: talk about your gaoth and DH reads in more detail. Why is DH so town to you on gut? and opposite for gaoth

If it's gut, that means I'm not sure (or don't want to say) what's causing it. However, if I had to try to come up with something, I'd probably say:

Gaoth's early posts (say, iso 2-3) feel forcedly excited and not quite genuine.
DH reads as fairly sincere, even when I think he's wrong. Also, I don't think scum would have pushed the CSL "townslip" as hard as he did. (Caveat: If DH does flip scum, CSL jumps high on the scumlist for that same reason.)

Unvote

Consider EPM at L-1.

at L-4?

No, at L-2. And for the record, I'm fine voting any of the four people I put in the SCUM category, including epm, so if he hasn't claimed already, he probably should. (The reason I haven't moved my vote yet is because it's currently on someone I think is scum, FTR.)

[Trumpet of Doom]

[Furry's dayvig attempt shows that he's never played in a game with a real daykill. Daykills don't end the day, that's why they're called daykills instead of forcelynches. And considering that he's trying to play it as confirming him as town... yeah, not good at all. (Has Furry read the Storm of Swords game that wrapped up a month or two ago?)

They should end the day outside of a few specific circumstances or it makes the role overpowered for the town. The role literally gives the town two lynches, which eliminates night actions which if the game is remotely balanced is the area of the game where scum has the edge.

what is this i dont even

In case you haven't noticed, scum tend to win more often than town. One dayvig is not going to reverse that advantage, though it might work to neutralize it. (More on this after a certain game ends.)

Let me guess, you also think "overdefensive" is a tell.

In fact, no, I don't, unless it

also

counts as "trying too hard to look town."

Well guess what hun, it sure isnt. Neither of them are for one reason, a one word reason. "Subjectiveness"

And yet you don't complain when I say things like "Gaoth feels forced" or "DH feels genuine."

"Trying too hard" is the same concept. If you're Trying Too Hard, your posts feel forced, thus making you scummy.

Anyway - Why do you imply nintendo town in your catchup then call him scum in your final post?

I don't imply nintendo town - if I do, you're reading it wrong. My comment on his 309, if anything, implies I think he's scum ("how is [you being mislynched] a problem for any of us" because you can only be mislynched if you're town, which I don't think he is), and I don't know what else you could be talking about.

Why is EMP scum, you say he can go either way in your notes but he is a top four read?

...Have you read epm's posts recently?

Votes not moving, catchup post is from scum. Note the distinct lack of explained stances, on anything. Note the distinct lack of reads that dont differ from almost every other player. Note the distinct LACK OF A VOTE.

My vote is fine where ani left it, thankyouverymuch.

So either you're not sure or you don't want to say? Well, you explained your supposed 'gut' reads on them, so why did you include the '(or don't want to say)' bit?

Full disclosure. Go read Open 180 for an example of the "don't want to say" reason. It's linked from my wiki.

And you are now rolefishing EPM.

Again I say: what is this i dont even

Asking for a claim from someone who's within lynching range is not rolefishing, it's SOP. And I notice you outright claimed when you were at L-3 (I think), so I don't see what your issue is with having someone else claim at L-2.

[Trumpet of Doom]

(SOP = Standard Operating Procedure.)

[Trumpet of Doom]

Full disclosure? BS. You say you might not want to say your motivation for the read, then EXPLAIN the read. Doesn't sound like you really meant it when you said you might not want to say.

BAHAHAHAHAHAHA you're just trying to throw everything you can think of at me and see if something sticks. Flail moar plz. (Protip: Just because "I don't want to say" didn't apply to either of those reads, that doesn't mean it hasn't in the past, and more to the point, that doesn't mean it won't in the future.)

[Trumpet of Doom]

Who's flailing? You're downplaying what you've done

Remind me again: What have I done?

and now you're trying to redirect suspicion onto me.

What suspicion? You and Furry are the only ones expressing any suspicion of me ATM.

[Trumpet of Doom]

Read your ISO.

Whatever you're talking about, I don't see it. Enlighten me?

That may be but you're not responding well to the pressure.

...what do you expect me to do? Your attack on me is crap, and even if it wasn't, you'd be scum for unrelated reasons anyway.

[Trumpet of Doom]

Heh, what unrelated reasons would those be, hm?

Glad you asked.

In iso 9, you agree with ani's reason for thinking Furry's scum, thereby implying you think ani's town (or if not, why would you have posted it?); in iso 13, you call the ani-Furry interaction distancing, implying you think ani's scum. There are fourteen minutes in between these two posts. Remember that number, it'll be important later.

Isos 28-32 and 34: you try to attack Seraphim for a "slip" that isn't a slip at all. (If I thought English wasn't your first language, I

might

let this slide, but you're from Ontario, which is in the English-speaking part of Canada IIRC.)

Iso 38: "I'm one of the 20 out of 100 people who are town when they do this, really!" Does this one really need explanation?

Isos 47-49: Remember the "slip" you were attacking Seraphim for earlier? Now you're claiming he changed his opinion over

seventeen

minutes and is therefore scummy. You made a much larger change in opinion over

fourteen

minutes (see above), so you have negative room to call Sera scummy for that unless you want to admit that you too are scummy.

Those are the big things that spring to mind; there are probably a few more little things that factor in as well.

Response to things after post 442 coming tomorrow.

[Trumpet of Doom]

*after post 441, sorry.

[Trumpet of Doom]

Response to things after post

442

441 coming tomorrow.

That's probably true in some timezones... (goddamnit why did I agree to replace into a large, especially one on D1)

epm's claim doesn't do a whole lot to convince me he doesn't need to die; if any of my townreads that are on the wagon specifically ask for me to join it (or if deadline starts getting close and he's still a viable wagon), I'll hop on.

I disagree, that role (as well as tracker) are two of the most underestimated roles in the game.

If they are played and claimed right, town would win more games.

And this is different from every other town-aligned role how?

I'm not denying that dayvig's a powerful role in the right hands, I just think that assigning as much power to it as you seem to be is probably overestimating it.

You are rediculous. I guarentee you if you have actually "caught" someone for trying too hard, you got lucky and probably only got them lynched because they did something ELSE scummy. It would be like me catching someone for being the first one to cast a second vote on a player, sure im going to get lucky and catch scum at times, but more like then not im going to approach scum populus percentage. Its a crappy tell that for some reason has caught on and gotten mixed up with aspects of active lurking so a few think it is valid.

I've used it four times in the past, and three of them have been scum. That may not be a large sample size, but you'd think I'd have been wrong more than once if it wasn't a legit tell. (For the curious: Petr in Newbie 889, peanutman in Mini 912, and RICO ACT in Newbie 1089 were all scum, while DreadKnight in Mewbie 915 was town; if you care enough to look, you can make the extra click to go to my wiki page.) And for the record, I wasn't actually able to get any of them

lynched

, though I did get close on two of them.

Is it a foolproof tell? No, of course not, there's no such thing. Townies do scummy things all the time.
Is it better than random? Damn straight it is. All scum need to try to look town; if townies are trying to look town, they're Doing It Wrong.

You say "before I got my role" he read as scum, which should mean that he no longer reads as scum.

...Nice quote mining there, sir. (WARNING WARNING LINK GOES TO TVTROPES) The entire sentence was something like (italics added) "

Now I remember why

I thought you were scum earlier," or in other words, "As I was rereading the first part of the game, I wasn't finding much scummy, but this thing that I'm commenting on is scummy."

Gaoth 473: The important part here is that the posts in question feel

forced

. "Happy" is merely what about them feels forced.
(I wouldn't have noticed this if I hadn't looked at Newbie 915 just a little while ago, but post 473 feels a lot like some of the things one of the scum asked me in that game. My scumdar is getting noisier about you.)

Last line of Powerrox 481: This is setting off major alarm bells.

Juls/Groundsel/TS business: Obviously, TS joining as an alt is a nulltell. The reason he gave seems a bit -worthy, but that in and of itself doesn't make it lynchworthy. I can kinda see what Juls is getting at with "he lied when I called him out on it, lynchlynchlynch," but I don't know what kind of a reputation TS has/thinks he has that CMAR's idea about "he didn't want people to judge him based on his main" might be accurate.

Powerrox 554: Can I see this experience, please? More than one game would be ideal.

Juls 560:

several of ToD's initial reads are similar to mine so I like his way of thinking. I would like him to look at the two instances I quoted of Nintendo-town and tell me how he can read those and think Nintendo is scum.

Basically, I don't think that they necessarily

have

to come from town. Whatever you're seeing that makes the posts so very obvtown, I don't see it... help?
166: I may be biased here, but I think it's not impossible that he could be scum trying to get a townie (or hell, if Furry is for some reason town, maybe two) lynched/vigged.
194: Total nulltell, AFAICT.
Also, regardless of alignment, nintendo needs to die before LyLo, since if he's town and makes it that far, he'll probably be a very inviting mislynch target. Y/N?

I can pretty much guarantee I won't be looking at this thread tomorrow, as I have two concerts tomorrow.

[Trumpet of Doom]

This is a wagon I can get behind.

Unvote; Vote: Parabollocks.

[Trumpet of Doom]

Haven't reread to look for connections to/from Pine yet, but Gaoth, Powerrox,

nintendo and Parabollocks

are all decent lynches. Bookie effect means I'll likely be avoiding nintendo and Parabollocks for today, since if they're town, they're plausible bookie targets. Since there's already a wagon there,

Vote: Powerrox93.

Also,

Mod: V/LA Friday through Monday.

And wow, Parabollocks needs to die as soon as it's safe (i.e., we don't have to worry about possible bookie-effects) - tonight or tomorrow would be really really great.

[Trumpet of Doom]

Trumpet, you really don't need to worry about bookie for me.

:eyebrow: I can only think of a few things that would make you confident about that, and most of them mean you need to die either N2 or D3.

[Trumpet of Doom]

*puts nintendo firmly in the "not worth responding to" category*

Pb 667: I think you were a decent enough potential target for the bookie that I'm not comfortable lynching you today.

Seraphim, talk me through your thought process for this sentence from 680: "Para was yesterday's counter-wagon, highly unlikely that he would have been lynched today." IIRC, the only reason Parabollocks wasn't lynched yesterday was because he hammered epm before his own wagon could get that far.

[Trumpet of Doom]

It's because I think Para is scum and I don't think Pine would have bookied one of his scum partners. Sorry I didn't make that clear. Do you want to hear my WIFOM thought process on that?

Nah, I can understand where thinking the bookie wouldn't pick a scumpartner comes from - seems to me that it's basically betting against your own team. I'm just not getting how Para's being the counterwagon yesterday makes him less likely to be lynched today.

[Trumpet of Doom]

Back. If there's anything people want me to respond to, now's the time to point it out.

[Trumpet of Doom]

Not that this matters a whole lot anymore, but:

What do you think of the growing AntB wagon?

Not actively opposed to it, would have supported it over any wagons on several other players; IIRC, I had him in the "null, leaning scum" category because he hadn't posted much and what he had posted was somewhat contentless, and I can't say he's done a whole lot to improve that.

[Trumpet of Doom]

Vote: Parabollocks

.

[Trumpet of Doom]

Confirming that gorilla neighborized me last night into a QT that also includes Regfan and has daytalk.

Not sold on Regfan's case on gorilla - town do less-than-ideal things all the time, and without some idea of what this other role is that Regfan knows is out there, neighborizer doesn't seem overpowered to give to town (bodyguard is weak, and vig is swingy, which makes it harder to judge its effect on balance). Furthermore, proper play for a scum neighborizer would seem to be to target one's scumpartners to give them daytalk, if they don't already have it; neighborizing town, especially town whom you think is a good player (and thus, presumably, can read you fairly well), seems like an actively bad idea for a scum neighborizer.
tl;dr: I don't think gorilla is scum. Not sure how that reflects on Regfan. Vote is staying on Parabollocks

In other news, CMAR is town - no way would scum be that clueless as to who is obvtown (playing really really poorly, but not scum) - and nintendo

needs to let me borrow some of what he's smoking, as it's obviously high-quality

may/may not be a danakillsu alt.

[Trumpet of Doom]

Again, Regfan, I'm not convinced. It's not like town

always

act on their posted reads. It's not like town's posted reads are

always

the same as their actual reads. (insert long, irrelevant debate over the difference between "should be" and "is" here) Your case isn't making a significant dent in the town read I've had on gorilla basically since I replaced in. Also:

Not outing the other role but I know it near counterclaims neighbourizer to a degree and I highly doubt inclusion of both of said roles in the same game on the same side especially with a vig/bg and only one scum team.

You realize you're not exactly quelling my curiosity, right? And AFAICT, Furry got hit with multiple kill flavors, so I'm not ready to say that there's only one scumteam.

Parabollocks lynch still needs to happen. Gaoth may be a decent alternative depending on what Parabollocks claims if/when he gets up into lynching range, but not before. Bowser is town.
Nik: Compare posts 186 and 188. Then read posts 657 (trying to cast suspicion on Juls for not being dead yet) and 662 (I've made a post about it in the neighbors QT; it boils down to "first sentence looks like a softclaim or bookie-targeted scum trying to get lynched"). Also, his last post was two weeks ago and a week and a half before his last login.

In other news:

ATTENTION ALL PLAYERS:

Scum seem to be hunting for power roles (see: Furry 278, end of Juls 355). If you are a PR or know something about who is a PR, please don't drop any hints that you might be unless you are prepared to fullclaim immediately.

[Trumpet of Doom]

/proddodge. Will get to this later, but PARTY HAT MAFIA is happening in the marathon forum.

[Trumpet of Doom]

Not getting on the diddin wagon yet - I think I've specified what wagons I'd prefer, and there's still time till deadline - but I'm okay with it (IIRC, my biggest obstacle to thinking he's scum was that I thought epm was more likely to be, and that's no longer the case), and if needed I will join it.

[Trumpet of Doom]

CES and Bowsers are V/LA meaning neither of them will be here to hammer or assure a lynch goes through, not expecting Groundsels incoming replacement or Tarson to vote anytime soon meanng two of Gaoth, CMAR and ToD need to change to Diddin. Unlike previous days I actually want a lynch and hammer here soon, very soon.

Can do.

Unvote; Vote: diddin.

L-1, know you'll be hammering, etc. etc. etc.

[Trumpet of Doom]

*ahem*

Vote: Parabollocks

Vote: tarsonisocelot

.

There's been some QT chatter that's making me much less sure about Gaoth, and TO hasn't really done anything to strike the scumread I had on PB. I'd also take a CMAR lynch if it came up.

[Trumpet of Doom]

Gorilla is a neighborizer who has neighborized someone every Night including last Night, yes?

Yes.

I've got to leave soon, so I won't say much, but can you forward the reasons for why you're not suspecting Gaoth, Trumpet?

No.

[Trumpet of Doom]

All right, Reg, we can do that.

Unvote; Vote: CryMeARiver.

[Trumpet of Doom]

Hey TO, how's that catchup coming along?

[Trumpet of Doom]

This is a wagon I can get behind.

Unvote; Vote: Parabollocks.

And wow, Parabollocks needs to die as soon as it's safe (i.e., we don't have to worry about possible bookie-effects) - tonight or tomorrow would be really really great.

Vote: Parabollocks

.

*ahem*

Vote: Parabollocks

Vote: tarsonisocelot

.

OH, BABY, ONE MORE TIME!

Vote: tarsonisocelot

.

In other news, I've sent Slaxx a PM about this already, but I will be

V/LA this weekend

as I am moving back into college.

[Trumpet of Doom]

Does this mean you consider both mafia to have claimed their PR meaning that all VT claims are town, ie. ToD and Nikandor (The guy you're currently voting).

I'm voting Trumpet because something about his posts really rubs me the wrong way

I suspect that whatever you're seeing has something to do with the fact that I've been on autopilot for a large chunk of the game. For whatever reason, I have not been able to get motivated to contribute to/care about this game. Let me see what I can half-ass for you now:

I don't think I like DH's claim. Besides the standard "bulletproof claims always come from scum", there is this:

People saying that my read went 180 on CMAR obviously haven't been paying attention to the fact that diddin flipped scum.

There's a reason why

I'm not really talking that much this game

. Some of you have figured it out, some of you haven't.

Refer back to this post.

I was hoping to draw the NK.

Something about this does not add up. Seems to me that the appropriate way to play BP is to be so obviously town that scum have no choice but to try to kill you, not to try to drop tells that may or may not be picked up and might indicate that you have some kind of PR that prefers to stay hidden.

I could also totally buy Seraphim-scum. While a lot of that is me noticing that sheeping Regfan has gone fairly well recently (see: diddin, CMAR), I've been suspicious of him at least since way back around this post - the last time I remember seeing the argument about scum motivation, it was being made by scum trying to defend an unpopular town read on a town player, and I've sort of been wary of it since.

And then there's TO, whose lynch I've been asking for since the end of D1. Magua, I'm not sold on the idea that there needs to be a Governor in this setup, because gorilla's neighborizing happens during twilight. (I know nothing about Slaxx's mod meta, so I don't know whether Regfan's statement that Slaxx hates Governors is accurate.)

Regfan is town. Gaoth is town via Regfan. Magua is town. gorilla, CSL and Nik are all town enough to avoid the rope for the time being.

We've got four lynches. If we decide to to make those lynches some order of {DH, Seraphim, TO, me}, we should be able to win this game.

[Trumpet of Doom]

Reg, how soon do you want this lynch?

(Neighborhood QT? What's that?)

[Trumpet of Doom]

Mmkay.

Unvote; Vote: Seraphim.

L-1, etc., etc., you all know the drill.

[Trumpet of Doom]

Really?

None

of the players I had as even leaning scum in my first post were scum? I recognized early in my reread that Furry could have been a town PR based on 278, but the others... yeesh.

Honestly, I stopped caring about the game a while ago. Between being treated as conftown and my top scum picks all being town, any motivation I had to post evaporated over the course of the game.

Regfan, it's about high time I told you this:

Spoiler: Click me!

LIES, my good sir!