Any Band U-Pick (Town Wins)

[Magua]

So, do I have to read this thread too, or can we continue my streak from 00's band and just roll to victory now that I'm here?

[Magua]

Mmmmm.

Mmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm.

Will read and post tonight.

[Magua]

Hooray for reading the thread.

Nikanor is town.

CMAR is scum.

Diddin is more scum.

Gorilla and Regfan are both town.

Trumpet of Doom is null.

Groundsel is town, but this is based off of one meta piece of information rather than playstyle.

DemonHybrid is scummy, but, goddamn, I really felt DemonHybrid was scummy in 00s Mafia as well, so I'm very indecisive on this one.

Explanation for any of these reads is not available upon request.

VOTE: diddin

[Magua]

Magua is a n00b, but happy birthday!

im

12

13 years old and what is this

[Magua]

Let's just skip the "actually voting diddin" part and get to the "diddin claims" part so we can get to the "lololololol lynch diddin" part.

[Magua]

CMaR is far from scum. There is no scum motivation of pointing out a non-existent scum tell.

The scum motivation to point out a non-existent scumtell seems self evident to me.

I might be okay with the diddin lynch, but he wasn't involved with the gorilla wagon at all, so that worries me. Thoughts?

Do you think those involved in the gorilla wagon are more likely to be scum?

If so, why are you not voting any of them?

[Magua]

Also, explain why pointing out a non-existent scumtell has scum motivation. Don't scum want to hang back and not take a risk like that?

Scum need to get town lynched. Though town are sometimes perfectly willing and able to lynch themselves, usually scum need to be able to build a case on a town. Enter in the non-existent scumtell.

Not to mention the whole "the moment you say 'scum want to hang back and not take a risk', you incentivize scum to take a risk" bit.

Nikanor switches to Gaoth, and the wagon falls apart.

Wouldn't the wagon falling apart quickly be more of an evidence that *gorilla* was scum than Gaoth was scum?

Or are you saying that Nikanor is that much of a bad-ass?

[Magua]

- Magua explain your town-meta-read on Groundsel please.

No. But holy fuck, has he really not posted for two weeks? What the hell?

@Mods:

I assume that you've PM'ed Twistedspoon to make sure he's still in the game, y/n?

Also your read on Seraphim and Bowser would be nice.

Very null. I sat down and read the whole thing through in one reading, and what I wrote is what I had when I was done. Neither Seraphim nor Bowser/CSL made much of a dent on me.

So I checked back. Seraphim seems town enough; I'm not going to sheep his vote or anything, but he at least seems like he's trying. Null-to-town.

CSL/Bowser has -- now, keep in mind, I know I'm town -- only voted town, with the very last exception of his vote on gorilla, who I'm only sure is town. That's just an incredibly bad track record, even for someone voting by random chance.

So, I'll toss him in the scum bucket because why not?

[Magua]

CHESSKID

[Magua]

Yes he is.

Does he get prodded at some point?

14 days.

You know what, screw it. That right there makes him town. Useless, terrible town, but still town.

[Magua]

Yeah, to say, "I was V/LA, y'all are jerks." That hardly counts.

[Magua]

Ok, I'm The Format. Main performance is Snails, encore performance is On Your Porch. I'm an odd night watcher. N1 I watched Juls because I figured she was considered townie enough to be nightkilled, but not enough to be protected. Nobody visited her N1.

So that whole back and forth yelling between you and Juls that is your posts from #512 to #581 D1 was just a red herring?

[Magua]

1. You didn't think Juls was town.
2. Other people thought Juls was town.
3. You thought Juls might be killed because of 2.

Do I have that right?

Who do you think is scum?

[Magua]

Regfan, does your townread on Trumpet of Doom center mostly on the fact that he replaced animorph, or is something else?

[Magua]

@diddin:

Do you see the disconnect in watching someone you think is scum because you think they might die? I mean, do you get that that doesn't make sense?

[Magua]

That's sort of what I meant. As opposed to having a townread on Trumpet's play itself.

[Magua]

Diddin just wanted to save SpyreX the emotional trauma.

[Magua]

Gorilla is a neighborizer who has neighborized someone every Night including last Night, yes?

[Magua]

Not voting CryMeARiver because I'm being a dick.

Actually, he was my second suspect rereading through the night, but the massive wagon to L-1 in less than 24 hours makes me leery and so I'm going to wait for Regfan to badger me a bit, because that's how I roll.

Seraphim. Your town, Demon. Seraphim is scum. So is Gorilla. They need to be our next two lynches.

I agree on DemonHybrid-town.
I'm meh on Seraphim either way.
But I disagree on Gorilla-scum, so I'd like it if you could enlighten me there.

[Magua]

I liked Nikanor's overall play and styling. His targets seem a little slanted at the "easy" end with Nintendo, powerrox, EPM, etc. I just noticed that he made an exception for CSL in #973 -- like, he didn't care about EPM or powerrox, but he's willing to (slightly) defend CSL with the "He's just terribad" card. Even with that, though, I'd prefer to lynch CSL and then look at Nikanor if CSL flipped scum.

Tarsonisocelot seems useless. Parabollocks voting *only* town *ever* seems more "terribad townie" than scum. Also, diddin's vote on Parabollocks actually holds me back a little, as diddin's not much of a busser, so I say useless-probably-town. I held a "useless and therefore town" read on TO in 00's Band, which was incorrect, so I keep backtracking on this....but there you go.

Only slightly relatedly, I'm surprised that CES died, so I suspect that scum have a rolecop.

[Magua]

I see no reason not to wait for a CMAR claim.

Or until CMAR has been prodded, one of the two.

[Magua]

I would've thought my bloody-minded methodological nature would've been obvious to you by now.

[Magua]

SpyreX, your wise speeches and honeyed words have convinced me. From now, I shall live life according to your ways and me....BLOOD

BLOOD

BLOOD FOR THE BLOOD GOD

SKULLS FOR THE THRONE OF KHORNE



Vote:

CryMeARiver

[Magua]

Regfan: No.
PS, Regfan: Fuck you.
PPS, Regfan: Still no.

VOTE: Bowser

[Magua]

even when he trolls and fucks around he still hammers mafia

Only when he *is* mafia.

[Magua]

VOTE: Bowser

[Magua]

seriously

what

Okay, lets take a look at some interactions then.

Er?

What part of that do you not get?

[Magua]

I have lots of townreads.

Bowser is not one of them.

Bowser has horrible votes.

Bowser should die.

Or, looking at things, it's either Bowser or tarsonisocelot for the lynch today, and tarsonis feels less like a CMAR/diddin buddy than Bowser. So Bowser dies.

[Magua]

Songclaim please, Bowser.

Also lulz at protecting nintendo.

In the meantime:
UNVOTE: Bowser
VOTE: tarsonisocelot

[Magua]

Magua, would you consider a JOAT claim with a Doctor/Cop/Roleblocker power to contradict a Roleblocker/Doctor/Cop being in the setup?

Also if we're wrong on Tarson, who is scum?

Not necessarily. Especially with at least one of them being one-shots. Hard to say without knowing more about the scum power. I'm tempted to say that with a flipped Bodyguard, Vigilante, and Tracker, I'd be leery of any Doctor or Cop claims. I could buy a Roleblocker claim, however. If that were the case, I think a JOAT would fit right in.

Town
----
Goath
DemonHybrid
Regfan
Trumpet of Doom <--- this is based almost entirely on your vouching for him, by the way
Nikanor
Gorilla
Seraphim
Bowser
tarsonisocelot
----
Scum

Nikanor, Seraphim, and Bowser are all a muddy little null puddle. The only thing that sticks out at me is Nikanor defending Bowser when he defended no one else.

[Magua]

tarsonisocelot is either town, or is the most heavily bussed scum ever.

Day 2, both CMAR and Diddin are on tarsonisocelot (3.04); the wagon swings to Diddin. CMAR stays on Tarsonis; Seraphim and later Trumpet of Doom both switch from tarsonis to Diddin.

Diddin then self hammers. Would expect that he'd give one of his scumbuddies the opportunity to hammer for towncred, maybe?

UNVOTE: tarsonisocelot

VOTE: Nikanor

PEdit: Oh, look, Regfan is calling for a massclaim. How unorthodox of him.

[Magua]

Regfan, do you think there are any scum in the neighborhood?

[Magua]

Do you have any hypothesis about why mafia shot SpyreX over Seraphim-who-all-but-claimed PR, or, really, anyone else in your neighborhood given that you all but said someone in it was a PR yesterday?

[Magua]

Less stalling, more claiming.

[Magua]

Nintendo fakeclaimed, btw. I'm so proud of him.

[Magua]

Did he do that? Link please.

Lulz.

Bowser protecting Nintendo.

Lulz.

[Magua]

Are you alerted if your bulletproof is used up?

[Magua]

Am I going to sheep your vote sight unseen?

Relevant

I'll give my full thoughts after the mass claim has finished.

[Magua]

So Regfan, you're both in a neighborhood with Gorilla and in a mason....lodge?...with Gaoth, yes? And Gaoth and you are alignment confirmed to eachother?

Seraphims doc save target claims are N1: Juls. N2: ToD. N3: CES

Missing a protection, probably N3(?) because CES died N4.

Explain your trust of Trumpet of Doom, please.

[Magua]

AtE less please. It reads as ultra scummy.

Details of the plan you had at the end of D4 and the plan you had at the beginning of D5 would be nice.

I wrote down a bunch of shit, and then threw it out the window. Here's the gist:

Regfan and Gaoth can be scum, but only with eachother. Given that we have two mislynches available and they're advocating to get the Doctor claim lynched, they're Town; scum-masons would need a reason why they're still alive come D7.

tarsonisocelot is the Governor. Governor has failed to govern two scum lynches. tarsonis is Town.

I don't buy a Doctor and a Bodyguard in the same setup, regardless of whether a Mafia Roleblocker exist. Bowser's claim doesn't even enter into it. I think Seraphim is either a Mafia Doctor or a Mafia Roleblocker.

Even if Seraphim is Town, I think he's a good lynch today. Seraphim-Town can't confirm himself by protecting anyone, because he and Gorilla are the last remaining roles that can be roleblocked, and Gorilla has yet to be roleblocked. Seraphim-Town confirms Mafia Roleblocker, and we know that Gorilla can't be a Roleblocker, so that would narrow the pool down to (Trumpet, Nikanor, CSL, Demonhybrid).

[Magua]

Explain to me why there's a 24-hour Twilight.

[Magua]

If that's the reason, it's not working very well.

[Magua]

If he was on his phone on vacation, and he knew he was going to be on his phone on vacation, and the only reason he had a 24-hour twilight was to write the lynch scene, which he knew he wasn't going to write...I think he would've skipped the twilight.

I'm pretty sure there's no mafia goons in this setup, because we haven't seen any yet, and because if Seraphim is town we know there's a fourth mafia PR and if Seraphim's mafia I'm pretty certain he's still a PR.

I can see a setup of 5 Mafia PRs vs 7 Town PRs, for instance, especially as the majority of the PRs are not clearable in any way. I mean, 1-shot Bulletproof is like the made-for-scum claim. I've seen more scum Neighborizers than I can count.

[Magua]

Does this mean you consider both mafia to have claimed their PR meaning that all VT claims are town, ie. ToD and Nikandor (The guy you're currently voting).

I'm voting Trumpet because something about his posts really rubs me the wrong way, and I see no reason to move my vote from him when I'm not ready for the Day to end yet.

It is a possibility I am very strongly considering. A lot of the theory for me rests on what Seraphim flips -- if he flips Town, there's obviously a Roleblocker who's not claiming his role, so the theory is in doubt. But if Seraphim flips Mafia, pretty damn sure the other Mafia is in the PRs.

[Magua]

His real target, at least. Yes, I already noted the discrepancy.

[Magua]

Seraphim, who do you think the roleblocker is?

DemonHybrid, instead of "idk if I get lynched, go town" posting, why don't you post who you actually think the scum are? If you're not motivated to play, replace out, because the combination of "I'm a bulletproof" + "idc guys do whatever" is too much to really handle in combination.

Regfan, at this point I'm thinking Seraphim + Gorilla, definitely heavier on the Seraphim than on the Gorilla, but a Seraphim-flipping-town-meaning-there-must-be-a-roleblocker-while-Gorilla's-never-even-been-roleblocked would be really tough to swallow.

[Magua]

DH, you had a bad experience, I get it, you get it, but you still need some input. This game is hardly autowin, so I don't want to see "idc, just lynch me."

Regfan, you don't have to convince me not to lynch DH today. I have no interest in lynching him today.

Goath/Regfan, I really think that tarsonis is Town. Really really really.

But let's just get this show on the road.

VOTE: Seraphim

[Magua]

Goath/Regfan, I really think that tarsonis is Town. Really really really.

Just because of the possibility of him being a governor or is it due to something else because I can almost guarantee you that Slaxx wouldn't put a town sided governor in a setup.

That. Scream about it however you want.

Also Diddin/CMAR bussing D2/D3.

Also my cop investigation.

[Magua]

The power so far is:

Vigilante
Tracker
Bodyguard

Neighborizer
Doctor
Jack of All Trades (Cop, Doctor, Roleblocker)
1-shot Bulletproof
1-shot Masonizer

Cop

1-shot Bookie
Even-Night Rolecop
Odd-Night Watcher

Unrelatedly, if Slaxx has this Twilight phase just because he can't write a lynch scene ahead of time, I'm going to club him over the head like a baby seal.

I'll read Seraphim/Nikan(d)or interaction later. Please and thank you for not hammering Seraphim until he's posted what his plans were.

[Magua]

1:3 would indicate 2 scum left (5 scum out of 20 players)

8 power roles in a 20 man game. Think that's feasible?

You'll notice most of us voting Seraphim...

How comfortable is everyone with a TO lynch first?

Not I, but you should feel free to vote her if you think she's scum.

[Magua]

Given that the QTs are daytalk, that's an utterly bizarre way of structuring things. I mean, it seems like such a burden to do it that way as opposed to normal. I have to believe there's some other mechanic that's in place.

It's also odd because it makes me rethink Roleblocker. Like, seriously, what that implies is that neither the Masonizer nor Neighborizer can be Roleblocked, because they both happen in the Twilight phase. They also couldn't be tracked.

Bowser claims to have had a roleblock, and Seraphim claims that he was roleblocked...it just seems like it introduces more complexity into the communication roles. I'm not seeing the gain. Obviously you and gorilla are telling the truth about how the roles work, it just makes me wonder.

@DemonHybrid:

We've got like 9 days. Unless you plan on flaking immediately after voting, I think we'll get things sorted out in time for a lynch.

[Magua]

Gaoth is confirmed Mason.

Bowser is town.

DemonHybrid is town.

Tarsonis is town.

Leaves Nikanor, Trumpet of Doom, and Gorilla.

We have 3 lynches.

VOTE: Nikanor

[Magua]

Her role PM.

[Magua]

Vote Gorilla

What makes nikanor more likely than gorilla, magua? Seeing as I'm going to die tonight, I would like to make this last vote count.

It comes down like this:

Nikanor is a suspect for play reasons: he acts scummy, he and Seraphim buddied eachother, and while I liked his position on the diddin wagon, he did his best to derail the CMAR wagon and didn't comment at all on the Seraphim one..

Gorilla is a suspect for mechanical reasons: there being a Neighborizer and a Masonizer, and because his play in general sucks (but not in a specifically scummy sense).

Play > mechanics.

[Magua]

Interesting data I just read in the Neighborhood QT: Regfan claims masons with Gaoth in the Neighborhood QT August 7th -- this was during D4 when CMAR was lynched. Both Gorilla and Trumpet of Doom were in the Neighborhood and saw this information. Regfan was planning on fakeclaiming SpyreX as his mason partner.

Now, killing Gaoth would've been out of the question self-incriminating, but Regfan could've easily been killed N4 and no one would've batted an eye -- Regfan even claimed because he thought he was going to die. Instead, SpyreX died.

Really makes me feel a lot better on Nikanor.

[Magua]

This *totally* works for me.

[Magua]

Relevant

Feel kind of bad for Nikanor and Seraphim. Not sure what possessed Seraphim to claim Doctor after we already had a Bodyguard flip.

[Magua]

Can't believe town won this game despite Regfan doing his level best to lose it, either.

[Magua]

Explain your twilight nao.

[Magua]

Your twilight leaves me meh.

As for claims: diddin got lynched without a claim, and CMAR got lynched in spite of his claim.

Seraphim did kind of get lynched because of his claim, but that was it.

I think mafia had plenty to claim, but that claiming their own roles was probably a mistake (particularly in Seraphim's case). But I don't really feel that mafia was underpowered -- I mean, gorilla came very close to being lynched with an entirely confirmable PR.

Nikanor: Revenge for Cuthulhufish. =P

[Magua]

Magua, what would you have claimed in my position at MC?

Undoubtedly VT.

But I think if Seraphim had claimed VT, too, or some other non-protective PR, there probably would've been a gorilla lynch D5 and maybe you could work on it from that.

I mean, the thing is that none of the town could confirm themselves as town, even those who could confirm they had a power. Bulletproof is so often a scum claim, JOAT is so often a scum claim...in Demonhybrid's case, I already had a townread on that slot to begin with, but both Bowser and gorilla could've ended up in ths mislynch pile.

[Magua]

CSL and DH don't enter into it. Furry had already flipped bodyguard was the thing.

[Magua]

Regfan, it's about high time I told you this:

Spoiler: Click me!

[Magua]

Magua, I can't bring myself to make fun of the genius who sang Bad to the Bone so I have something else for you.

Spoiler: Click Me

By D7 it was impossible for Town to win.

Then I'd show you Locke's ISO, and you'd realize that I did what had to be done.

Also, Slaxx:

Spoiler: Click me!