Flash mafia 3 (town wins)

[mastin2]

Near the bottom of page five.

Current scumreads are Farside and {Parabollocks, Girl}. Parabollocks (and therefore replacement) looks more scummy individually, Girl looks more scummy by interactions with farside.

[mastin2]

VOTE: Zoraster. That's a hammer.

[mastin2]

Oh, right. This game. Heh. Thanks for the reminder. Had completely forgotten about it.

Not really surprising, considering how I only came in on request and have been feeling quite apathetic recently. (Not to mention, being occupied elsewhere with said obligation being a huge priority to me.) But, hey. A prod has sparked my motivation elsewhere; it'll probably spark my motivation here as well.

Anyway, this game's not exactly on the top of my priority list. I suddenly have less work to do than I thought I would, but I still have to do work elsewhere for a while. Be back soon.

[mastin2]

Turns out I have less work to do than I thought I do. Will be getting to you momentarily.

[mastin2]

Not finished reading, yet. But from what I've seen...

Fate <--Obv-town.
VPBaltar (who replaced DrippingGoofball) <--Suffering Replacement syndrome.
Ellibereth
Llamarble
Mastin2 (who replaced PopularTajo) <--Also suffering replacement syndrome.
Springlullaby (who replaced Ythill) <--Yet another suffering from replacement syndrome.
Porochaz
Farside
shaft.ed (who replaced crypto) <--Pretty much the only person who isn't suffering from replacement syndrome.
a girl on the internet <--I read one of {Parabollocks, Girl} as being scum. Parabollocks (Zoraster) flipped scum. Therefore, Girl is town.
Regfan


What is Replacement Syndrome?
Simple, really. DGB might not have been to the level of confirmed-town, but nobody was really suspicious of DGB's slot until VPB came in. And it's not hard to see why; DGB was a weak town-read of mine; VPB is a strong scumread of mine, since he's not playing the way I remember town-VPB to be playing. Put bluntly, VPB blew all the town-cred DGB had.

Ythill was a strong town-read of mine, and pretty much everyone else as well. Spring came in and has essentially squandered all of that built up town-cred.

Then there's me. Most people called Tajo town. Then I came in. And I've wasted all that town-cred.

Shaft.ed's the only one who seems to have been spared; Crypto was obv-town, and while shaft.ed isn't as GOOD as crypto was, he at least still looks like town.

Now, to narrow down my reads a little bit.

VPBaltar (who replaced DrippingGoofball) <--Suffering Replacement syndrome.
Ellibereth
Llamarble
Springlullaby (who replaced Ythill) <--Yet another suffering from replacement syndrome.
Porochaz
Farside
Regfan <--Town. Regfan's play seemed town to me when I did my read.

Spring I'm leaning town on. While she has an extreme lack of activity, when she does come in, her insight looks good.

VPBaltar (who replaced DrippingGoofball) <--Suffering Replacement syndrome.
Ellibereth
Llamarble
Porochaz
Farside


Process of elimination, I feel like our scum are within these five names. I just did the math, and I really can't see us losing.

Five suspects.

Eleven alive.

Mislynch today,
Scum get a kill in,
Nine alive, four suspects.
Mislynch tomorrow, scum get a kill in,
Seven alive, three suspects.
Mislynch the day after, scum get a kill in.
Five alive, and only two suspects.
(Mis)lynch the next day, scum get a kill in.
Three alive, only one suspect.

That's assuming that we mislynch, AND assuming the scum get their kills in, AND assuming we don't get role-based information to implicate/clear further names within. In other words, even in the worst case scenario, this is a town win.


That said...I said it before, and I'll say it again. Farside looks like scum to me. One of {farside, Regfan} heavily looks like scum. Observe Parabollocks not approving, but later on that same page, voting for farside, anyway. I don't see her claim as being that pro-town, and easily could see it as scum.

I'll give more after I respond to others. (Offense always comes before defense.
Always.)

[mastin2]

Dang it. I'm not finished, yet.

Why I think Farside is scum:

Simple, really.

Redundancy.

We have a tracker; that takes care of an investigation-type role.
We have a doctor; that's painfully obvious by the continuous lack of kills. That's a protective role.

A town roleblocker, however, is ALSO a protective role. Heck, they're even listed as the first two roles up there! As in, the two most common (at the time, presumably), most important roles of them all! Why include both?

While admittedly a Janitor is a strong role, for Farside to be town, the scum'd either need a strong scum power role, or two additional scum. Her presence as town completely overpowers the scum, overwhelms them in all the scenarios I come up with.

Because two protective roles pack a heck of a punch. Two protective roles can stop kills non-stop. Two protective roles can shut the scum down unless they have something to counter the protective roles.

...Yet obviously, they don't. Hence, Farside's far more likely to be scum. The way she claimed was about as scummy as you can go about it. Her play has been quite poor, overall, ringing multiple scumtells. She was strongly tied to Parabollocks, as I said before. (Heck, when I came in yesterday, I said that "Farside looks like scum, with either Girl or Parabollocks.")

Interaction, scum. Tone, scum. Setup, scum. And her claimed targets don't look solid to me, either. So, Motive, scum.

I CAN see her as town. I just quite frankly don't think she is.

Note Parabollock's 294, isolation #6: link1

This is the post I tried to link to before. (Blasted Quicktopics really mess up links. >_<)

And then in 299, isolation #11, link 2
He votes for Farside. Yay, unexplained turnaround! This reeks of defending-then-bussing.

-Fate: Why did you want to avoid expressing a clear stance on Regfan?

AGOTI: Why did you vote for farside, at the time you did? Please explain.

-Parabollocks: Who are your actual suspects?your townreads?

This is MORE evidence (as if it wasn't obvious enough already) that Girl is town. "Scumbuddy and two townies", played as straight as an arrow.

Current scumreads are Farside and {Parabollocks, Girl}. Parabollocks (and therefore replacement) looks more scummy individually, Girl looks more scummy by interactions with farside.

Still holds true. Girl is town.

[mastin2]

It's 4:15 AM. I've been working on this game for the last five dang hours, so I'm sure as heck not going to go down without making sure the scum get lynched. I will NOT let you guys mislynch Girl and/or Regfan, will NOT let my scumreads get away. I'll play beat-the-mod for as long as I can.

[mastin2]

LYNCH ORDER:
Farside22
VPBaltar
Ellibereth
Llamarble.

DON'T YOU DARE STRAY FROM THIS PATH.

[mastin2]

...Yet obviously, they don't.

Well...they kind of have actually.

And feel free to continue posting cause it'll be awhile before Kise gets here I'm sure.

Actually. Make that VPB-Farside-Elli-Marble. THIS IS A SCUMCLAIM.

[mastin2]

If you're the last scum. we may as well quit the charade. Thinking ellibereth is scum is pure lunacy. (but then again, so is saying DGB looked town and I've pissed away her towniness...lol)

You think I wasn't around to submit a kill despite being active elsewhere?

You think I wouldn't devote 100% to a game as scum to prevent this kind of thing from happening?

YOU THINK THAT I WOULD PROCRASTINATE AND THEN SPEND SO MUCH TIME ON THIS GAME, AS SCUM?

Yeah, you're scum.

[mastin2]

You implied it.

Since that'd be what it'd take for me to be scum.

[mastin2]

I think people are more prone to procrastinate as scum in a very likely losing situation such as the one you've been in since you replaced. It's simply not as fun when it looks like you're going to lose regardless of any effort you put in. You agree or disagree with that statement?

Strongly, STRONGLY disagree. As scum, the more likely you are to lose, the more sweet it feels to give a game your all, since if you pull through, it feels amazing.


As town, who replace in only on request, who didn't have much interest in the game, however...

Well, this game's a guaranteed win. Even with my mislynch. VPBaltar, Farside, if the game's still going, Elli, and if somehow the game STILL isn't over, then POE, it's Marble.


And now I'll get no sleep at all, proving this before the mod comes in. If I sleep, the game will be in night by the time I wake up. But needless to say, things which make VPB scum off the top of my head,

-Sudden unforeshadowed hammer.
-Hammering without a claim.
-OMGUS'ing.

And that's just off the top of my head. Add to that what I've already said, and what I'm going to say as much as before night comes, and I'll make sure he dies tomorrow.

[mastin2]

VOTE COUNT

Mastin2: 5 (Ellibereth, Fate, farside22, shaft.ed, Llamarble)
a girl on the internet: 2 (VPBaltar, springlullaby)
VPBaltar: 1 (Regfan)
Llamarble: 1 (AGOTI)

NOT VOTING

Mastin2
Porochaz

WHAT THE EFF?!? VOTE: VPBaltar.

[mastin2]

WE CAN STILL LYNCH SCUM TODAY. REVERSE THE WAGON ON ME AND SPEEDLYNCH VPBALTAR.

[mastin2]

VOTE: Regfan.

It's 4 AM in the morning, and I have to get up at 6:30. (So, my night's sleep will essentially only be a nap. >_<) I'll explain when I return, but Reg's as good as confirmed scum.

[mastin2]

Was about to post my case on Regfan, but figured I should catch up on my reading first. When I saw this.

Regfan can't be scum because there are no tracking roles that are scum aligned.

When I saw this, I thought "LIAR!"
I could've sworn it was there.
I checked.
I double-checked.

I triple-checked, since I could've SWORN I saw it there.

...But I couldn't find it.


WHICH MEANS I WASTED THREE EFFING DAYS WORKING ON A CASE AGAINST CONFIRMED TOWN. >_< (/Rage.)

Unvote, VOTE: VPBaltar

.


I think people who are saying four scum is impossible need to reconsider just how strong a tracker, a doctor, AND a roleblocker are for the town. A tracker gives the town an information role. A doctor and a roleblocker give not one, but TWO ways to shut down scum nightkills. Combined, they elongate the game and potentially allow for the tracker to confirm all three at an absolute minimum.

Seriously, there's just no way janitor is THAT strong of a scumrole to be expected to carry a 3P scumteam against that kind of strength. When Janitor quite frankly doesn't counter the strength of two preventative roles at all. Mafia NEED a fourth member, since it's the ONLY way to counteract such a strong town. With a fourth member, their kill pool is narrowed down, their roleblock pool is larger (making it harder for a successful kill stop), and they have less risk of getting caught by the tracker. It fits into the setup perfectly.

Eff pure numbers. In general, sure, they're a good guide, but they ignore CONTEXT. Account for ROLES in your calculations, and you realize the game makes no sense with anything LESS than two scum left.

As I pointed out. Tracker in combination with two roles to shut down NKs? There's no way the mod would NOT have predicted just how gamebreakingly powerful that would be for the town with only four scum. It's an incredibly powerful combination, and therefore would need an incredibly powerful counter.


As it was asked of me. Yes, I am indeed a VT.

[mastin2]

There's no way the mod would NOT have predicted just how gamebreakingly powerful that would be for the town with only

four

three

scum.

[mastin2]

VPBaltar (who replaced DrippingGoofball) <--SCUM.
Ellibereth <--Suspect.
Llamarble <--Minor suspect.
Springlullaby (who replaced Ythill) <--Town-read.
Porochaz <--Leaning towards second scum, actually.
Farside <--Confirmed town.
shaft.ed (who replaced crypto) <--Town-read.
Regfan <--Confirmed town.

Four names.
Poro's still in there, since if Porochaz and VPBaltar are a scumteam, farside blocking VPBaltar sending in the kill would naturally mean Porochaz did not visit anyone since he left his buddy to do it for him.

[mastin2]

@ Mastin -

If VPBaltar is scum he

has

to have a partner being one of Llarmable, Elibereth, Porochaz, Shafted and yourself. Assuming you're town you have a one in four shot of nailing his partner, proving that there's four scum and making tracker and roleblocker completely effective. Assuming that there is only one mafia left and this is some town sided setup which I don't think Tracker + Doc + RB is vs Jan + 2 more scum is then one of those four would be the final mafia. Essentially we should be lynching in the pool, not VPBaltar so kindly unvote and actually start stating your thoughts on those four.

PS: Shafted, you can claim now.

I fail to follow your thought process. I literally don't see what you're saying here.

[mastin2]

But, yeah. I'm quite confident this game is a guaranteed town win. There's pretty much no way for us to lose at this point.

[mastin2]

Ah.

Unvote, VOTE: Porochaz

.

[mastin2]

http://www.quicktopic.com/46/H/bRM7pMfaf3kNZ

You guys hit me with the WORST possible timing.

Last week, from Sunday Night until...well, now, I was on slight V/LA. An extremely Hectic week, probably the most busy of the year. (And it was something I completely had forgotten how bad it was, so I didn't see it coming. :/) I had far less time to devote to the game than I needed, at the time I needed it the most.

Said "slight V/LA" turned into "full V/LA" on Thursday, and "Absolutely ZERO Access" from Friday until now, Sunday Night. (And I'll still be V/LA until the morning. )

As you can see, I actually did have a plan this game. Not a very GOOD plan, mind you (I knew I was quite screwed ), but a plan, nonetheless! I'm not on my desktop, but when I'm back, I'll give you the link to my MaScum2 quicktopic (virtually deserted, as it wasn't long before I started using the above) and the link to my pseudo-MasTown2 Quicktopic (actually has more posts in it than most of my town Quicktopics ).

This game is yet more proof of the age-old concept:
I'm a dangerous scum player...in THEORY. (Look at what I was saying in there, and I think you'll know why. I saw shaft.ed setting himself up as Doctor Red Herring, among others. And I knew how to manipulate the strings of at least one player into thinking I was town. I know the theories, I know the moves, I knew what I needed to do to pull the right strings, and pulled many of the correct moves I needed to.) But when it comes to actual PRACTICE, I kinda...well, suck. (My strategy was high-risk, high-reward, and while it short-term gave me the reward as I had intended, I wasn't around to make sure it KEPT on giving the reward and the Risk began to take over due to my absence. If that makes sense.)

And, yeah. I knew when I came in, it was gonna be pretty much a guaranteed scum loss. (Theoretically, it was still possible to win. If I could get Marble lynched, Farside NK'd, Poro lynched, VP lynched, and then Shaft.ed lynched.
...You can see how much of a stretch that was. )

Since that was not going to be a real option, I figured I'd have as much fun as I could, and that in the effort of having fun, I might somehow miraculously convince people I was town. (It worked with Regfan, at least, and did buy me a day of life! )

[mastin2]

http://www.quicktopic.com/46/H/FqZvsWDGr8xUG
^My personal scum QT. Deserted, since I switched over to the private one once Zoraster got lynched.
http://www.quicktopic.com/46/H/tG3cSXZUbvy
^My "personal town QT".

mastin I really appreciate your epic effort put into games
but i really wish you had put as much into the game thread as you did your quicktopic

It's a classic difference between Mastin as town and Mastin as scum. Mastin as town posts in-thread a lot and neglects his quicktopic. Mastin as scum posts in-QT a lot and neglects his thread. (Considering the content of the posts, this is not as bad as it sounds. You DO realize I ramble in QTs a lot, right? Would you prefer those ramblings be in the thread instead? )