Civilization Mafia - Town Wins!

[Yosarian2]

Hi everyone. This is going to take me a while to read through...I'll hopefully be able to check in tommorow with something.

[Yosarian2]

Ehm...we've had two kills the last couple of nights. But this could very well be because scum has built units.

Pardon me if I repeat anything that's already been said, I have not yet managed to read through the whole thread yet, but it could also be that we had a few townies playing doc and/or roleblocker for night 1 and night 2, and either they changed stratagy, were killed, or just have not gotten as lucky since then. It's hard to really draw any conclusions on what we might be facing from the number of night kills, considering how many different options every player in the game has.

[Yosarian2]

Let's just play this by the book we've written - as soon as you can, d_rouge... we're waiting.

So, the plan is, we go through the list of players, one by one, and ask them, in that specific order, if they got any guilty investigations last night or not?

[Yosarian2]

(shrug) I just joined this game, I sure don't want to abandon it.

I think this painfully slow plan is killing the game, though, and I don't think it's really likely to produce much more information then just letting people reveal their results when they choose to; if anything, this forced order I think makes it harder for to tell which results are real and which are faked, compared to just letting it play out naturally; one of the big hints as to when investigations are real and when they are fake can be the timing at which the person chooses to reveal them, and by using this plan we lose that. We also seem to be having almost no other discussion, which is very bad. I really think we might be better off just playing it straight.

[Yosarian2]

I

really

don't want to abandon this one. The mechanics is really interesting IMO, but it requires committed players. Question is: Do we want to keep things rolling, even if it'd require sub-optimal play (e.g not waiting for all investigations)?

i dont like the way it sounds... sub-optimal?

vote: Astronaut

What's wrong with the way it sounds? I thought he was very clear; it'd be better to keep the game moving instead of going at this snails pace; even if this slow plan is theoretically optimal town stratagy, in practice, it's killing the game. If we never talk about anything, either the town will lose, or the game will die.

[Yosarian2]

In fact, the more I think about it, I'm suspicious of raj's seemingly illogical vote on Astro (not the first time this game he's suddenly voted for Astrnaut without any reason that seems to make much sense), and his play in general this game so far has seemed suspicious; for example, back on day 1, he started with a no-lynch vote

to give the town a better chance of investigative roles

And yet, later on, he suggested that only half the town should investigate, and the other half should be docs instead.

but if we survive night kills from the mafia then we will be in better shape.

but i think a combo of both could be healthy, mafia targeting people and getting about a 50% chance of it getting a correct kill.

I think his play looks suspicious, and at this point I think we need to start analyzing play in general instead of just counting on lucky investigations.

vote:rajhcpfreak

By the way, could someone make a list of all the innocent investigations that have been claimed revealed so far? I was trying to go through the thread to make sure no one had revealed an innocent investigation on raj before I posted this, but it's such a long thread at this point and it's a bit late at night here, so I may have missed it.

[Yosarian2]

im already confirmed.

Ok. Like I said, it's a long thread; I was looking for someone saying they found you innocent, and couldn't find it, but I may have missed it. Who declared you innocent, and when did they say it?

[Yosarian2]

And arnlx is confirmed pro-town by death. All right.

unvote:rajrhcpfreak

[Yosarian2]

I have no useful information from last night. I can explain why if people think I should.

[Yosarian2]

Ok...this game is something like 30 pages long. There's got to be SOMEONE who's done SOMETHING that's at least somewhat scummy looking at SOME POINT in this game, right?

(sigh)

[Yosarian2]

DANG IT CHANGE YOUR VOTES

i say if they dont then kill everyone on that bandwagon tomarrow.

Huh? Who are you talking to? Are you defending MOS now?

[Yosarian2]

Ok.

What is the logic behind the MOS lynchwagon, exactally? Because he was the one who suggested this stratagy in the first place? (shrug) I don't really want to lynch Puzzle right now, either, and WGLS (we've gotta lynch someone) but why MOS?

[Yosarian2]

Today, d8p said:

I investigated Yosarian2 and Lord Rahl last night - both are barbarians.

But yesterday, Puzzle said:

I've already claimed. If you believe me scum, what will pressure achieve ?

Yosarian2 is innocent according to my Caravel.

Lynch me if you really think I'm scum. I'm really getting bored here anyway, to be honest.

Logically, if Puzzle says he got an innocent on me, and d8P claims he got a guilty on me on me, either one of them made a mistake, or one of them are lying, or there's something wierd going on here. Puzzle is a dead townie, and therefore we can assume he was not lying. Normally, I'd assume d8p was scum at this pont, but i'm a bit confused that Astronaut claimes he's innocent.

Either someone screwed up somewhere here, or someone is messing with our heads, or d8p and astronaut are together trying the dumbest scum gambit ever.

Anyway, d8p, why would you even investigate a proven GG like me?

[Yosarian2]

@ Yosarian: I checked those on raj's list (post 757) for scummy behaviour. You and Rahl came up.

If you expect anyone to believe even the first part of your claim, that you decided to use your investigation to check out someone who had already been found innocent, you're going to have to explain in more detail then that why you thought I had "scummy behavior" and were so convinced of it that you were willing to lynch me over it.

I trust d8p just about as much as I trust my own caravel. And that's a lot. We could be dealing with an uninvestigatable civ here, or Puzzle made a mistake.

If d8p were scum trying to fake a guilty result, I'd think he'd be more careful than to try to frame an already investigated player.

Yeah, I'm not sure how this would make sense as a scum gambit from his point of view, although it's possible that he decided to frame me and just missed seeing Puzzle's investigation. Between that, and your claim of getting an innocent investigation of him, there's enough doubt in my mind that I'm not going to vote for him just yet. I just wish I had some other rational explination for what's going on here, though. Would a paranoid or insane or something civilization make any sense? Has anyone else gotten any questionable/illogical results?

Also, if he is trying to frame me with a fake guilty investigation, then it's time for us to be careful, because that would only make sense for him to do if we were in some kind of lynch or lose, or at least a "lynch wrong and the GG's would be less then 50% of the town" situation tommorow, which is possible if we were dealing with a situation where, for example, there are 2 scum groups of 3 each. Otherwise,him trying to get me lynched in such a way that would probably get him lynched tommorow just would not make any sense.

[Yosarian2]

Bah...I lost my train of thought there. I need to sleep more. Edit: First paragraph, last sentance should have said "...and were so convinced of it that you were willing to use up an investigation on me over it."

[Yosarian2]

Even with two scum groups, I don't see how we could've gotten the results we have without there being either univestigatable civs or barbarian units messing with our results. Finding out the alignment of Lord Rahl would probably help.

vote: Lord Rahl

Hmmm...uninvestigatable civs, huh? Could be. So, is your theory that d8p might be a godfather? That's possible.

However, if he is, then why are you still following the results of his investigations?

I said this before, but let me repeat myself; we might be at lynch or lose. We've lynched'd 2 "European barbarians" so far, but we're still getting 2 nightkills a night. It's possible that we're dealing with a single large scum group that can do more then one kill a night, or can build vig units, or something like that. It's also possible that we're dealing with 2 scum groups (where one scum group would be "European barbarians" and the other one might be some other kind of barbarians). If there are 2 scum groups, and both scum groups still exist, we must logically have started with at least 3 European barbarians, which means there are probably also three members of the other (hypothetical) barbarian group. Which means we could lose if we lynch wrong today.

If there's only one scum group, then we're at lynch or lose today if there are 3 of them left, and if there are 2 of them left, then if we lynch wrong today and they kill 2 GG's tonight, we'll be at lynch or lose tommorow.

Either way, we're probably past the point where we can afford to lynch someone for informational purposes. If you think Rahl is scum, then you should vote for him, but I find your suggestion that we should lynch him just to "find out what his alignment is" a bit suspicious.

On a related note, I do hope we hear from rahl soon. I really want to hear what he has to say about all of this...

[Yosarian2]

Results confirmed. Which means:
a) Lord Rahl and Yosarian2 are scum (and Puzzle was naive/wrong)
b) I'm paranoid = useless
c) ..insane (Lord Rahl and Yosarian2 = GGs =>Puzzle was right)
or d) I'm scum => Astronaut is naive/scum

Not that this helps any.

(shrug) Well, from a flavor standpoint, it wouldn't make much sense for Hammurabi of the Babylonians (Puzzle) to be a naive cop; why would the person most famous for creating the first code of laws think everyone was innocent? If I was going to make a naive cop, from a flavor standpoint, probably it would have made the most sense to have Ghandi be naive, or something like that.

[Yosarian2]

All right. So, where do we go from here?

We have to lynch someone today, and lynch correctly, or else we could lose tonight. In fact, if there are two scum groups of 3 people each, we could even lose tonight if we lynch the last European scum, although at least then we might have a chance if pro-town people get lucky with doc, roleblocker, or vig units.

[Yosarian2]

(shrug) Ignoring the confusing and contradictory chains of investigations for the moment, the only really suspicious behavior I've seen today is from Astronaut, with his suggestion that we lynch Lord Rahl simply for information purposes while we're in a lynch or lose. The fact that he ignored my suspicions completely in his next post, and left his vote where it is without any explanation why, just makes me doubt him more.

Astro, do you think Lord Raul is scum? If so, could you please explain why?

[Yosarian2]

I think Lord Rahl is scum because d8p's investigations say so. I also think you're scum, partially because of d8p's investigation but also because of your recent posts, which I've found about as scummy as can be, speculating and stirring up confusion.

"Speculating and stirring up confusion"? I'm trying to figure out what's going on. Would you rather we just sat around and did nothing except hope for luck with investigations, like everyone in this game has done for the entire time the game has been going? Especally now when it seems that some investigations must be incorrect?

And why is it that you waited to attack me until right after I attacked you?

I don't think we're at lynch or lose, and lynching Lord Rahl would give us a clue as to whether or not d8p's investigations can be trusted.

Ok. Why is it that you don't think we're at lynch or lose? You just attacked me for "speculating", but at least i went into some detail in my explinations about why I think we might be at lynch or lose; it seems like you're speculating that we're not at lynch or lose and not even saying why.

If you don't think that we're at lynch or lose, then what do you think the game setup is?

[Yosarian2]

We had only one death on nights 1 and 2. Very few of us built doc units, and I find it more likely that the increasing number of nightkills comes from scum building killing units than from two different scum groups.

That could be; however, if these hypothetical scum units work like town units, with a certain chance of sucess or failure, it seems odd that there were exactally 2 kills on night 3, night 4, and night 5.

In any case, though, even if there's only 1 scum group, we could still be at lynch or lose, if the game started with 5 scum. 25% of the people in the town being scum seems about normal (that's the same as 3 in a 12 person game). And if there are 3 scum left, that would mean we would probably lose if we lynched wrong today.

As for the setup, I really don't know. I won't give you any points for noticing that both dead scum are European Barbarians, I believe I was the first one to point out just that. What I do know is that d8p is pro-town, and that d8p thinks Lord Rahl is scum.

Actually, I think that last sentance is not entirely correct; at this moment, it seems that d8p no longer believes his investigative results. On the other hand, if d8p is telling the truth and is right that he's paranoid, then his investigation about Lord Rahl dosn't really mean anything, one way or the other.

Who's your best choice for a lynch, Yos?

Like I said earlier, in my opinion, ignoring investigations, the person who has acted most suspiciously today is you. The way you attacked me in response to that statmenent is not making me trust you any more at this point. Also, since you seem so keen on lynching for information, it seems fair to say that from my point of view it seems like a lynch of you might bring the town more information then anything else would.

That being said, there's nothing solid agianst you yet, and there's no hurry to rush to a lynch, so with us possibly being in lynch or lose I'm going to hold my vote for now. I especally want to wait until Lord Raul comes back; I don't like the way he's lurking at this moment, and like I said, unless d8p is telling the truth and is insane instead of paranoid, we don't really know anything about him yet. Which is one reason I wanted to know if you had any solid arguments against him unrelated to the investigation.

[Yosarian2]

(shrug) As I said ,I don't like the way he's been lurking either, but it seems like a bad idea to lynch anyone at this point without giving them a chance to claim first.

Mod: could you please prod Lord Rahl?

[Yosarian2]

(nods) Yeah, I also would like to hear a claim, Rahl.

[Yosarian2]

Yeah, the CIV III Portuguese civ was led by Prince Harry.

[url="http://www.civ3.com/conq_prof_portugal.cfm"]

vote:Lord Rahl

[Yosarian2]

Bah...I screwed up the link.

http://www.civ3.com/conq_prof_portugal.cfm

[Yosarian2]

I'm still alive! And I've got loads of results for you! Was someone clever enough to block/protect, or did the European and Middle-Eastern barbarians both target d8p?

Actually, I tried to protect d8p, but it failed.

[Yosarian2]

Now did you, scum? I'm thinking Puzzle got his parties mangled up.

Well, yes, of course I tried to protect him. I figured that he was the most probable scum target last night, both becuase he was a confirmed innocent, and because if he died, it would be impossible to prove later that he was paranoid, which might cause the town to mislynch me.

[Yosarian2]

I'm Alexander of the Greeks. My unique unit is the Hoplite, 0/3/0.

Roland made a hoplite night 1. He then didn't send in a night choice night 2, and was replaced. Darquel made a horseman on night 3, and sent the first hoplite to protect armlx. Night 4, she didn't send a night choice in, and then SHE got replaced. Night 5, I tried to protect raj (as it had been pointed out to me that he was confirmed pro-town) and built a second horseman. Last night, I tried to protect d8p w, and tried to investigate Akonas with one horseman and Astro with the other one. I got an innocent investigation on Asto, and the other horseman failed.

There are a couple of things about Akronas's claim that don't make any sense. If his claim about what his unique unit does were true, why would he build impis, which he claims are better at defending, and then just use them to investigate, when horseman are better at investigating? Especally, why would he build a second impi and then keep just investigating? And epsecally wierd, why would he build units on the first few days and then tech up going into the end-game?

I also thought Akonas looked very suspicious yesterday, with how he jumped bandwagons several times, and the way he attacked d8p makes me wonder if he was trying to defend Lord R yesterday.

[Yosarian2]

Ok. D_rouge can claim next.

[Yosarian2]

Well, I seem to have lost my role PM, and put the stats in the wrong order. I know both from playing the game and the information I was sent that Impis have a two in movement (investigation). Sorry for the mispost.

So, what are the exact stats of your UU, then?

If you don't remember, I'd suggest you check with the mod...

[Yosarian2]

Ummm...did I forget to mention that I'm actually a miller?

[Yosarian2]

Well, you see I wasn't a miller yet when Puzzle investigated me, but when I decided to start building the space ship, I stopped technically being considered "pro-town", even though I'm not a killing role, because my only goal now is to survive until the end game.

Also, I'm a flying pumpkin that shoots lazers out of my ass.

[Yosarian2]

Okay. We

could

verify it, assuming someone else has teched up all the way, and that it's not their scum buddy supporting them. We'd need two people to have teched up. In the absence of that, I'm not sure. Also, there's nothing wrong with vigging him if he's not protown, right? His vote might help us, but he might not help us.

(shrug) Why wouldn't I help you? If we lynch the scum, then the game ends with me still alive, and I win as well as the town winning.

[Yosarian2]

LOL

Heh...yeah. I realize that at this point, almost no matter what I say, my odds of surviving until the end of the game aren't great; even if I don't get lynched today, with 2 guilty cop investigations on me against 1 innocent, I logically probably will get lynched or vigged eventually. That's why I didn't tell the truth earlier; I knew if I claimed to be a miller, I'd probably get lynched, even though it's true.

It's frustrating, because I decided to start building the space ship after Puzzle found me innocent, figuring that I probably wouldn't be investigated again. Bad luck I suppose.

Oh well. If you guys are going to lynch me, I wouldn't blame you; if there are still people left from both scum groups, ilynching me will probably cost the town the game, but meh, I'm probably dead either way at this point, so I don't really care.

[Yosarian2]

You can help yourself through this Day by claiming your Barbarian alliance. If you're the right one, you'll make it through this Day, and may even have a shot at winning.

Heh..you know, I probably would have actually been better off lying and claiming to be a barbarian of the correct side then I am telling the truth.

Eh, oh well, you probably would not have believed me anyway.

[Yosarian2]

Let them go on, inHim. Any more chit-chat between the two of them would make me even more positive they're from the same barbarian tribe.

If you think Akronas is scum, vote for him. As I said at the start of today, I'm fairly suspicious of him myself.

[Yosarian2]

InHim: are you claiming you targeted my units, or my cities, with your roleblocking unit?

[Yosarian2]

Wow, Akonas, you're pretty keen on that space race thing. Have you forgotten that in the very same post, Yos also claimed to be Tha Flying Pumpkin?

Actually, I had a very specific reason for saying that; once I get one thing clarified from the mod, I'll explain.

[Yosarian2]

Still waiting for the explanation...

Sure.

The reason that I claimed why I did is because, while I am a neutral, I probably wouldn't believe that if I were you right now. However, the interesting thing is, it doesn't matter if you believe me or not.

I checked with the mod, and if the day ends in a 3 votes to 3 votes stalemate, the day ends in a no-lynch. That means that as far as the town is concerned, at least for the purposes of today, it doens't matter if I'm a neutral, if I'm the last European barbarian, or if I'm the flying pumpkin. Either way, there must be a scum group of at least 2 people left, and there might be one European barbarian left as well.

Either way, the town needs my vote in order to have any chance at lynching today. Otherwise, we will end up in a no-lynch, which would probably mean a town loss.

[Yosarian2]

Either way, the town needs my vote in order to have any chance at lynching today. Otherwise, we will end up in a no-lynch, which would probably mean a town loss.

This is false.

If you're part of the 2-person scum group (which is quite possible), assuming you and your partner are not going to vote for each other, we still have 4 votes to lynch one of you two.

Hmmmm, almost ready to change my vote.

At this point, d_rouge, it's blatenly obveous that either you or inhim must be scum. If you're town, then you should be 100% sure inhim is scum. If you're scum, then you probably don't really want inhim lynched, becuase that would prove your alignment.

In other words, the only logical reason for you to vote for anyone other then inhim would be if you were scum.

[Yosarian2]

If you're part of the 2-person scum group (which is quite possible), assuming you and your partner are not going to vote for each other, we still have 4 votes to lynch one of you two.

Anyway, I can't prove I'm not scum, of course, but I should think that by the way I presssured him to claim yesterday, pointed out that his claim made no sense, and then helped get him lynched, it should be pretty clear that I'm not scum with Lord Rahl, and thus not part of the Middle Eastern scum group.

[Yosarian2]

I'd rather go with the confirmed scum Yos (dammit, he claimed miller and Flying Pumpkin, but then decided to not give up after all when Akonas didn't get the joke).

(shrug) You are right, I more or less gave up. I was forced to tell the truth, that I became a miller, and I assume that meant I was about going to get lynched, because I've never seen anyone claim miller and not get lynched. However, after recent developments, I think it's pretty clear that I'm not the lynch for today.

I think it's fairly clear that, if InHim is scum, he must be part of the 2 player scum group. Why else would he claim the same civ as d_rouge? If he's lying, and he gets d_rouge lynched, he would get lynched tommorow. His actions would only would make sense if he hopes to be in a position tommorow where he can't be lynched. So I think that either InHim is telling the truth and D_rouge is scum, or InHim must be part of the 2 man scum group.

[Yosarian2]

You still have not answered my primary point, though.

The only rational reason for InHim to claim the role you already claimed would be if either you are scum, or if he expected to win right away by getting you lynched now.

So either you are scum, or InHim is part of the two man scum group. Which is it?

[Yosarian2]

Ok, I see that this is not going anywhere, so I'll try to see what happens if I

unvote: InHim, vote: Yosarian

.

I hope that in this way we can converge to a lynch.
I'm convinced that InHim and Yos are the 2 remaining middle east scum, so as long as we lynch one of them, I am happy.

What the heck are you basing that on?

Anyway, if InHim will ever get back in here and answer my question that I asked him more then a week ago, I suspect I'll know for sure which one of you is scum.

[Yosarian2]

In case there's any confusion about which question I'm talking about:

InHim: are you claiming you targeted my units, or my cities, with your roleblocking unit?

At the moment, I think we need to lynch whichever one of inhim and d_rouge is scum; we know that one of them must be, with them both claiming the same civ, and that will give us a confirmed innocent, which will improve our odds tonight. I'm more suspicious of InHim right now, with his "forgetting" what the middle aged units are. Tell me, InHim, do you remember what the name of the modern age vig and roleblocking units are? You're claiming you built them, but I notice you never actualy said what they are...

[Yosarian2]

From the mod:

Some units have a Bombard value - these can be used as roleblockers. The player can choose to have the Bombard-capable unit target the player's cities or units. Should they target the cities, then that player's unit production or era-advancement for the night will be nullified. Should they target the units, then all that player's units will be unable to perform any actions.

It's very odd that you claim you didn't have to decide if you were going to block my cities or my units, inhim. Unless you're claiming that your unit could do both?

In any case, my build was not blocked last night, so at this point I'm going to have to assume you were lying.

vote:inhim

[Yosarian2]

Um,

vote:akonas

Some impressive deductive reasoning skills you've got there, chap.

[Yosarian2]

Sure.

vote:no lynch

[Yosarian2]

Good game, all.

Yeah...I do think the game was weighed pretty heavily against the mafia. The worst was the way that it was very unlikely for the mafia to win an endgame against town players with rolelbockers and vig units. As it turned out, I only had a, what, 1/5 chance of killing Akronas on the last night? And the way the town players got stronger every night, I think that may have been inevitable.

[Yosarian2]

Yeah...I knew you were scum and figured you were going to kill one of us, rouge. That was why I figured we had to kill astro; I knew in a 1 scum 2 town endgame, the scum was doomed.

If you didn't kill InHim, the town would have won for sure; the ability to roleblock two people a night was just insane. The way it happened, the scum at least had a chance, albiet a fairly small chance.

[Yosarian2]

Eh...it didn't really mater, rouge. With the setup as it was, there was almost no chance for a scum to win a 1 scum-1 townie endgame. I was actually hoping for a scum-scum-townie endgame, where we could have at least gotten a draw.