Reck's Retrospective Rehash - OVER (thx obama)

Bookitty · Post Post #3517 (isolation #0) » Fri Jan 23, 2015 9:58 am

Reading up. Hi everyone!

Bookitty · Post Post #3519 (isolation #1) » Fri Jan 23, 2015 1:42 pm

Hi, CDB!

I'm reading, but it's obviously going to take a while. I already ISOed both flipped scum (Nexus and Ooba) to see if I could trace connections (and I'll be remembering them as I go through my comprehensive read). I found one between them, but that's not very helpful now.

Is there anything/anyone you want me to focus on, or is it okay that I'm just going through from start to finish? I see the votes on Shinobi and I can give him priority if that's preferred. I can also focus on the late part of the game first if people think that's better.

Also:

UNVOTE:

I don't know why CTD was voting 4burner so there's no point leaving it there now.

Bookitty · Post Post #3528 (isolation #2) » Sun Jan 25, 2015 4:53 am

I'm still struggling through this game, and I have a couple of questions:

In post 1233, Kise wrote:I was uneasy with Shinobi from D1 but I think Shinobi is town for reasons that are anti-town if said publicly. Respect pls.

What were those reasons, please? If I missed them, please excuse that.

Riddleton, do you typically use meta as a primary resource for reading other players?

I have Triforce as town mason, JMJ as odd night roleblocker (I think), BROseidon as town for catching masons (role irrelevant), 4burner as an unreliable self-watcher, ActionDan as a one-shot cop with an innocent on JMJ.

ZZZX: You claimed you were a master of end games, but you're just lurking here and not helping town. You also said you shouldn't be allowed anywhere near LYLO. These two comments don't seem to be coming from the same mindset. Can you elaborate on this please in terms of your claimed role?

4burner: If Shinobi flips town, what would you think of Kise?

Bookitty · Post Post #3530 (isolation #3) » Sun Jan 25, 2015 9:46 am

I spent a goodly portion of my first reading session figuring out who replaced who. I did some ISOs and I've gotten about halfway through the game thread on a straight through read.

Here are some things I think are relevant to Shinobi:

In post 720, ooba wrote:Agree on Shinobi - always felt uneasy about that slot. Although here - "Also the quick stance shift on the wgurts wagon is noted" - I'm not sure what shift you mean? He seems pretty anti-wgeurts all-throughout in the ISO. "I'm probably going to end up voting whoever Channel tells me to vote." looks like he's setting up to vote Nexus.

This is interesting because Ooba knows Nexus is scum. This is almost a preemptive clear for Shinobi, if you think about it.

Shinobi backs off any strong reads pretty much as soon as he expresses them. This isn't the hallmark of a town mindset; confbias exists for most uninformed townies. It doesn't seem to exist for Shinobi, though. I especially don't like Post 1063, which looks to me like pulling a puppy's tail and then realising you've got hold of a Rottweiler.

This isn't good:

In post 1067, Shinobi wrote:I don't think I have a scumlist atm. Just sorting through the usual omgus rampage right now.

In post 1178, Shinobi wrote:I've got reads coming down the pipeline soon. Have patience.

These come in Post 1222 and are uncannily nonhelpful now. A lot of town that later flipped town, two nulls in Majiffy/Riddleton and Aegor-TOWN and then Triforce scum. Sheeping BROseidon (not calling it that, but that's what he's saying).

This bothers me:

In post 1232, Shinobi wrote:I could also sacrifice 4burner but that's mostly because I don't like him.

Shinobi moves Triforce from his strongest scumread to a townread based on the wgeurts push BEFORE wgeurts flips. I'm not faulting Triforce for this because I might have done the same thing; I'm wondering how a push on an unflipped slot turns a scumread to a townread like magic.

Sniping 4burner and saying "do not like" while failing to come up with a compelling case looks so much like distancing. I did read a little of the late part of the game in some vain hope that I would be able to catch up immediately just from that. I did think that the 4burner-Shinobi conversations looked forced. Not certain there, but if Shinobi flips scum, that's where I would look next I think.

I'm content with a Shinobi lynch. I would like answers to the questions I asked before I lay down a vote; to me they are relevant. Other than that, I have to read and understand the game to an extent I haven't achieved yet to make the connections necessary to contribute effectively.

tl;dr: I will vote Shinobi. I'd like answers to my questions before I vote if at all possible.

Bookitty · Post Post #3558 (isolation #4) » Mon Jan 26, 2015 12:36 am

In post 3537, xRECKONERx wrote:I am extending deadline by 48 hours. Love me. Worship me. I am your god.

I love you so much, Reck. THANK YOU!

@Triforce: I'm still reading. I wasn't following this game whatsoever so it's taking a while. I'm happy to look at PV and Bella and now I have time to do so while continuing a first read.

In other news, <3 you Glork and Singer. I'm sending good thoughts and non-denominational somewhat heathen prayers your way.

Bookitty · Post Post #3575 (isolation #5) » Tue Jan 27, 2015 6:08 am

Please do not ignore this:

In post 3528, Bookitty wrote:Riddleton, do you typically use meta as a primary resource for reading other players?

@Peregrine: I've read your argument against 4Burner. Does the fact that power roles were killed night one, night two, night three, night four and night five make any difference to this argument?

About that Peregrine wagon:

1. Ooba was third on.
2. If you count Triforce as conftown (I do) then the only question marks on the wagon are CDB and 4burner.

Here is peak wagon:

In post 1576, xRECKONERx wrote:
Official Vote Count

PeregrineV
(8): Triforce, 50 Shades of Purple, ooba, Aegor, Untrod Tripod, ChannelDelibird, 4burner, vezokpiraka

Aegor
(3): Bella, BROseidon, Riddleton

Chevre
(3): Shinobi, Kise, Iecerint

vezokpiraka
(2): PeregrineV, ZZZX

Kise
(1): CrashTextDummie

Shinobi
(1): Chevre

Not Voting
(3): Cabd, ActionDan, jmj3000

With 21 alive, it takes 11 to lynch.

3. CDB is first off the wagon and onto ActionDan.
4. Kise moves his vote to Aegor.

My predecessor says this and votes Kise:

In post 1637, CrashTextDummie wrote:Kise's scumhunting has been very shallow. He's only taken two strong stances all game long, his vote on wgeurts and his recent vote on Aegor. For the majority of the day, he was parked on Chevre. He did not try to actually get a wagon on him going though, quite the opposite:

In Post 1245, Kise wrote:I'm split on how strong I feel about Chevre being scum because his mocking(?) of the wgeurts' wagon seems too easy of a thing to accuse someone for.

He notably had nothing to say about PV as he was being run up. He has interacted plenty with certain people, but rarely in a way that seemed designed to inform his own reads. Instead he comes off as trying to blend in with the banter, occasionally feeling downright manipulative.

He has done nothing remotely town looking to balance all that. Please kill it with fire.

Iecerint votes Kise. Ooba votes Kise.

And after that the Peregrine wagon just sort of dissolved. Vezok said there was minimal chance of PV scum and virtually no chance of Aegor-scum. Untrod Tripod unvoted and voted ActionDan. Riddleton said "we're not lynching a lurker." Aegor disagreed. UT asked if AD was Riddleton's scumbuddy. Peregrine voted ActionDan (not what I would expect if he were scum; Aegor was the larger wagon and was town). Aegor was eventually lynched.

In post 1704, xRECKONERx wrote:
Official Vote Count

Aegor
(5): Bella, BROseidon, Riddleton, Kise, PeregrineV

PeregrineV
(5): Triforce, 50 Shades of Purple, 4burner, vezokpiraka, Cabd

Kise
(3): CrashTextDummie, Iecerint, ooba

ActionDan
(3): ChannelDelibird, Aegor, Untrod Tripod

Shinobi
(1): Chevre

vezokpiraka
(1): ZZZX

Chevre
(1): Shinobi

Not Voting
(2): ActionDan, jmj3000

With 21 alive, it takes 11 to lynch.

Deadline
: (expired on 2014-11-18 18:00:00)

I don't know. If PV were scum, wouldn't he have been better served voting for AegorTown here instead of AD? I am not done reading, but I don't see smart scum leaving a wagon with wheels to go to one that was limping along. The fact that Ooba jumped off and went to Kise instead of Aegor, though, might mean something.

If ZZZX is fakeclaiming scum, he could only really be a goon, a mafia doctor or a jailkeeper based on the game he is claiming from. If we plan to lynch him, now would be about the best time (other than prior to now). He's useless, but I don't know if that means he's lying scum or lazy town.

I'm still good with a Shinobi lynch, I think, but at this point in my read I also can see reasoning for lynching Riddleton. I didn't like Majiffy (he felt fake, but it's hard to quantify that, sorry) and I feel somewhat the same about Riddleton.

I'm not done with my read, but I'm trying hard to finish. I'll help lynch Shinobi if I'm needed (I don't see another conclusion to today) but I want to at least have a reads list before we go to night with reasons and I'm not there yet.

Bookitty · Post Post #3576 (isolation #6) » Tue Jan 27, 2015 6:19 am

Reposting because of tragic quote fails:

Please do not ignore this:

In post 3528, Bookitty wrote:Riddleton, do you typically use meta as a primary resource for reading other players?

@Peregrine: I've read your argument against 4Burner. Does the fact that power roles were killed night one, night two, night three, night four and night five make any difference to this argument?

About that Peregrine wagon:

1. Ooba was third on.
2. If you count Triforce as conftown (I do) then the only question marks on the wagon are CDB and 4burner.

Here is peak wagon:

In post 1576, xRECKONERx wrote:
Official Vote Count

PeregrineV
(8): Triforce, 50 Shades of Purple, ooba, Aegor, Untrod Tripod, ChannelDelibird, 4burner, vezokpiraka

Aegor
(3): Bella, BROseidon, Riddleton

Chevre
(3): Shinobi, Kise, Iecerint

vezokpiraka
(2): PeregrineV, ZZZX

Kise
(1): CrashTextDummie

Shinobi
(1): Chevre

Not Voting
(3): Cabd, ActionDan, jmj3000

With 21 alive, it takes 11 to lynch.

3. CDB is first off the wagon and onto ActionDan.
4. Kise moves his vote to Aegor.

My predecessor says this and votes Kise:

In post 1637, CrashTextDummie wrote:Kise's scumhunting has been very shallow. He's only taken two strong stances all game long, his vote on wgeurts and his recent vote on Aegor. For the majority of the day, he was parked on Chevre. He did not try to actually get a wagon on him going though, quite the opposite:

In Post 1245, Kise wrote:I'm split on how strong I feel about Chevre being scum because his mocking(?) of the wgeurts' wagon seems too easy of a thing to accuse someone for.

He notably had nothing to say about PV as he was being run up. He has interacted plenty with certain people, but rarely in a way that seemed designed to inform his own reads. Instead he comes off as trying to blend in with the banter, occasionally feeling downright manipulative.

He has done nothing remotely town looking to balance all that. Please kill it with fire.

Iecerint votes Kise. Ooba votes Kise.

And after that the Peregrine wagon just sort of dissolved. Vezok said there was minimal chance of PV scum and virtually no chance of Aegor-scum. Untrod Tripod unvoted and voted ActionDan. Riddleton said "we're not lynching a lurker." Aegor disagreed. UT asked if AD was Riddleton's scumbuddy. Peregrine voted ActionDan (not what I would expect if he were scum; Aegor was the larger wagon and was town). Aegor was eventually lynched.

In post 1704, xRECKONERx wrote:
Official Vote Count

Aegor
(5): Bella, BROseidon, Riddleton, Kise, PeregrineV

PeregrineV
(5): Triforce, 50 Shades of Purple, 4burner, vezokpiraka, Cabd

Kise
(3): CrashTextDummie, Iecerint, ooba

ActionDan
(3): ChannelDelibird, Aegor, Untrod Tripod

Shinobi
(1): Chevre

vezokpiraka
(1): ZZZX

Chevre
(1): Shinobi

Not Voting
(2): ActionDan, jmj3000

With 21 alive, it takes 11 to lynch.

Deadline
: (expired on 2014-11-18 18:00:00)[/size]

I don't know. If PV were scum, wouldn't he have been better served voting for AegorTown here instead of AD? I am not done reading, but I don't see smart scum leaving a wagon with wheels to go to one that was limping along. The fact that Ooba jumped off and went to Kise instead of Aegor, though, might mean something.

If ZZZX is fakeclaiming scum, he could only really be a goon, a mafia doctor or a jailkeeper based on the game he is claiming from. If we plan to lynch him, now would be about the best time (other than prior to now). He's useless, but I don't know if that means he's lying scum or lazy town.

I'm still good with a Shinobi lynch, I think, but at this point in my read I also can see reasoning for lynching Riddleton. I didn't like Majiffy (he felt fake, but it's hard to quantify that, sorry) and I feel somewhat the same about Riddleton.

I'm not done with my read, but I'm trying hard to finish. I'll help lynch Shinobi if I'm needed (I don't see another conclusion to today) but I want to at least have a reads list before we go to night with reasons and I'm not there yet.[/quote]

Bookitty · Post Post #3577 (isolation #7) » Tue Jan 27, 2015 8:30 am

Retracting my Riddleton read for now based on his behaviour around the Ooba wagon.

Just letting you guys know. I'm on page 87. (I've read some of the end already and I've read some of the post-RVS early stuff more than once.)

Bookitty · Post Post #3590 (isolation #8) » Wed Jan 28, 2015 1:57 am

Okay, my reads as promised. They aren't tremendously developed but I need to put them out there just in case. This is hurried before heading to work, so please forgive it; I can answer questions once I'm at work.

Triforce is town by role.

I get strong townvibes off CDB. Post 25, Post 168, his whole behaviour on the wgeurts wagon (pushing Nexus in preference and REALLY pushing it), general correct reads through most of the game.

PeregrineV. He has lurked and lurked and I freaking hate that. But when he is here, he provides real content and Post 2248 made me love him a little. I already mentioned the vote I don't really agree with his conclusion, though, and here's why.

4Burner: Yeah, that post of Peregrine's made me think OMG you must be scum. I have some other reasons for being suspicious, but I'm going to buck the trend and put 4Burner in town. I don't in any way think that 4Burner would provide a reads list that mentions an unflipped scum buddy five times. Scum are MORE careful about things like that, not less.

ZZZX: Lack of contribution and a roleclaim that forbids us to lynch him? The only thing that makes me hesitant is the timing of that claim.

Kise: I'm going to agree with (Mollie, I think?) and say that on general tone I would think Kise is town. I don't see anything I would jump on, so I won't. The relaxed, laid-back attitude may be playstyle, though.

Bella/Desperado: I didn't see Desperado as scum and Bella hasn't done anything to change that for me. I would like to see a reads list here. Also, I have recently seen scum defy Occam's Razor here so I'm not trusting that so much right now.

JMJ3000: Read Post 2384 and remember it. Also, I think town should be directing the next roleblock, especially if we lynch scum in Shinobi.

Riddleton: His Post 2114, Post 2165 and general pushing of Ooba makes him town to me.

ActionDan: Post 1411 gives me a WIFOM headache. I really liked his plan in Post 2959 though. Sorry, I got nothing.

BROseidon: I disliked Post 1139. Otherwise okay, I think.

Shinobi: The lynch for today. I have more here but I need to go.

Bookitty · Post Post #3605 (isolation #9) » Wed Jan 28, 2015 5:03 am

Okay, I just got buried in work. I'm going to try to post more tonight, but for now:

VOTE: Shinobi

I don't understand the rolecop speculation (Nexus was one already and I doubt scum would have two).

Be back later.

Bookitty · Post Post #3614 (isolation #10) » Wed Jan 28, 2015 8:57 am

I was thinking I had to say more about Shinobi, but I think I covered it in that first post I did on him when I replaced in.

@Triforce: Wouldn't two rolecops be unbalancing to the detriment of scum? I dunno, I would think you'd want a more balanced set of roles. I'll defer to your greater knowledge but it seems weird to me.

I'm good with someone hammering. I'm confident I have enough of my reads out there that it wasn't a waste no matter what happens.

If the thread is still open tonight I will answer questions or whatever else. If not, <3 you guys.

Bookitty · Mon Feb 02, 2015 11:23 am

I'm busy this evening

I will try to check in later on or tomorrow morning. Sorry

Bookitty · Post Post #3652 (isolation #12) » Tue Feb 03, 2015 1:36 pm

I wish I had some brilliant insights, but at the moment I got nothing but a handful of townreads and some unformed suspicions. I know I have to do a full reread, but my schedule this week hasn't allowed that yet. I had TriForce as definite town anyway, so that didn't do anything for me. Shinobi flipping town actually makes me read 4burner as more town. His posting so far today hasn't hurt that either.

I don't like the BROseidon lynch right now anyway. I will have time Friday, but I don't know if I will have time before that.

I am sorry for being so useless. I'll fix that as soon as I can.

Bookitty · Post Post #3654 (isolation #13) » Tue Feb 03, 2015 2:09 pm

@Bella: I would have said scum would never be so bold as to tie themselves together in the way AD and JMJ did -- however, I've seen some very surprising scum play lately and I can't rule it out now.

Open 577: Hope Plus One springs immediately to mind.

Why JMJ over AD, though? I would go the other way, I think.

Bookitty · Post Post #3686 (isolation #14) » Fri Feb 06, 2015 7:38 am

I don't really want to lynch BROSeidon. I have some questions though:

Why is ZZZX still alive given that killing him gives scum a free night kill? Why would they NOT want that?

For that matter, why is JMJ still alive? 4Burner's power is pretty useless and ActionDan has already expended his cop power, so those two aren't questionable; JMJ's roleblock power, however, could seriously screw up scum plans tonight in a way that Triforce the claimed Mason could not.

Possibly it's all to make me go hmmm with WIFOM. But the risk presented by JMJ tonight (assuming his claim is true) could potentially lose scum their nightkill. So it doesn't make sense to me.

So why?

BRO, I have you as town. Are you committed to being the lynch today? If you're going to take down AD anyway, why don't we just vote him out without losing you in the process?

Bookitty · Post Post #3689 (isolation #15) » Fri Feb 06, 2015 9:05 am

Okay. Riddleton and Bella think we should lynch JMJ. BRO thinks we should lynch BRO (and I don't wanna). CDB and me wanna lynch AD, though I'm starting to look at other options and implications.

ActionDan has a cop innocent on JMJ, though. So if we do lynch JMJ and he flips anything but Godfather or town, then AD is scum for sure. The reverse doesn't hold true; if AD flipped scum, it wouldn't make JMJ scum for sure.

ZZZX and PeregrineV: Imagine a world in which we were playing Mafia and these were the only three possible wagons: BRO, JMJ, AD. Can you briefly tell me what you think of each of these wagons and why you would or wouldn't want to join them?

Bookitty · Sat Feb 07, 2015 11:40 am

@4burner: You are a self-watcher, right? So how would JMJ's block work on that? It's not an active ability and it doesn't target anyone but yourself. I don't think blocks prevent self-watching.

Sorry if I'm missing something obvious, but can you explain how this would prove anything?

Bookitty · Post Post #3704 (isolation #17) » Mon Feb 09, 2015 7:05 am

@ZZZX:

Make a case on 4Burner please that amounts to more than "his play just felt so scum motivated." Provide some examples. Demonstrate your boasted value in late game. I think 4Burner is town. Convince me I'm wrong if you can.

@BRO:

Even if we lynch you and let you use your power to take out a scum, I think it's worth trying to figure out who that scum is before that. I'm not going to vote for you until I take a stab at narrowing it down a bit.

@ChannelDelibird, JMJ, 4Burner:

As I'm looking at it:

Assuming 4Burner is town:

If JMJ is scum, he just needs not to visit 4Burner to look innocent. Alternatively, he could kill 4Burner and resolve the issue once and for all.
If JMJ is town, he could visit 4Burner, block his self-watching ability while still allowing 4Burner to be the kill.

Assuming 4Burner is scum (I'm not assuming that, but for the sake of completion):

If JMJ is scum they can say whatever they want and no one will know different.

If JMJ is town, then 4Burner won't be making the nightkill. Since we think there is more than one scum, then pinning down who will be roleblocked is only advantageous for scum.

If we think JMJ is town and we believe his claim, we should let him roleblock without telling us who he will roleblock. I don't think we should share that info with scum.
If we think JMJ is scum, then we should lynch him.

This is just my take on it, but I think it's right. If you see mistakes/oversights, please let me know.

Bookitty · Post Post #3710 (isolation #18) » Mon Feb 09, 2015 3:11 pm

@4burner:

I would appreciate it if you looked at my Post 3704 and commented it, please. Thanks in advance!

That goes for anyone else who wants to rip it apart. I would be grateful to hear about any mistakes or logic fails you find.

Bookitty · Thu Feb 12, 2015 10:24 am

What I'd really like to do: Lynch ZZZX. His asking to be lynched before LYLO made me think he was town, and maybe I should stick with that initial read, but he's done just nothing to justify a townread since then. I'd like to lynch him. I think we can't take the risk, but I don't trust him as far as I could throw him, which is probably not very far.

What I'm willing to do: I'm willing to lynch AD, Riddleton, maybe JMJ and reluctantly BROseidon. I think BRO is town. I'd rather keep him and his power for tomorrow if at all possible.

What I'm not willing to do: I am not lynching CDB or 4Burner. I'm sort of meh on Kise, Peregrine and Bella but I don't want to lynch them either based on play and interactions earlier in the game.

Bookitty · Post Post #3748 (isolation #20) » Thu Feb 12, 2015 1:29 pm

In post 3743, BROseidon wrote:It's weird how many people are now magically against my lynch

I just feel like you are so obvtown. I mean, I suppose you could be exceptionally clever scum trying to get lynched for [reasons] but I am not feeling it. So I don't think it's magic -- I don't recall ever being for your lynch or seriously scumreading you. I can't speak for my predecessors because I didn't really read them that carefully, but for me you're town and I'm comfortable with that.

I'm okay with an ActionDan lynch. Let's do that.

VOTE: ActionDan

Bookitty · Post Post #3753 (isolation #21) » Thu Feb 12, 2015 1:48 pm

In post 3752, 4burner wrote:@Boo - why AD over ZZZX?

Because if ZZZX is town and I'm wrong, he's a beloved prince and we'll lose three townies instead of two.

I go back and forth on this.

If we lynch ZZZX now and he's town, we're going to night-night with two townies dead guaranteed as well as ZZZX.

However, if we don't do it now, I don't think we can do it later. If he's scum, we're locked into the situation where we can't afford to lynch him because we can't afford to be wrong.

I don't know, 4burner. If we're going to lynch ZZZX, then now's the time. We can't do it later. I don't think we're in LYLO right now, but I'm pretty sure we will have to be tomorrow. (Please, if that math is wrong, someone correct me.)

Bookitty · Post Post #3755 (isolation #22) » Thu Feb 12, 2015 2:16 pm

Some other parts of my thought process that aren't so easy to explain, but I'm going to try:

ZZZX said we should lynch him early on. Then he sort of abandoned that, which makes it not at all so convincing that he's town.

BRO on the other hand has pushed for his own lynch in the way I would think a vengeful townie would do. Also, if he's scum, he could only be one of the following roles:

Mafia watcher
Mafia godmother
Mafia roleblocker

He's obviously not an SK, the other option. We haven't any roleblocks unaccounted for that I know of. The other two -- yeah, but then why claim bomb? BRO could have claimed more useful things from that game, including Bulletproof miller and town tracker. Also, he was trying to get himself lynched. Why would he, as scum?

Looking at Riddleton's game a bit more closely, he is either a kill-immune mafia godfather or he's not scum. (Or he's never used his possible roleblocking power, something that would be... odd.) There are some town roles he could be but... hey, then he's town.

Bella is either her claimed Vanilla Townie or vengeful Mafia or plain Mafia goon. This could be scum based only on the game she's from.

Nothing in Ocarina of Time scum roles makes me believe that ChannelDelibird is scum.

Kise could be godfather, roleblocker, tracker or goon. Possible to be scum.

ZZZX could be Mafia doctor, goon or jailkeeper. I don't think jailkeeper. So possible to be scum.

From his game, ActionDan could be goon; I don't see roleblocker or neighbor in this game unless they are unused.

JMJ could be roleblocking usurper, godfather, rolecop.

Peregrine could be goon or traitor.

4Burner: I think he's town, but could be one-shot tracker, one-shot bus driver, one-shot roleblocker or encrypting ninja godfather.

For the sake of completeness, I could be roleblocker or godfather.

I think that's everyone (but not sure). Dunno if this is helpful or not but I'm mulling it over and I want it in thread so I can have it when I'm looking at things wherever.

Bookitty · Post Post #3758 (isolation #23) » Thu Feb 12, 2015 2:34 pm

In post 3757, 4burner wrote:I think we can discount mafia RB as nobody has felt the pinch.
Watchers and rolecops etc sure. Blocks, not so much, unless it's been hitting VT's all game which would be fucking dumb as there are games that are guaranteed town PR.

This. Yes.

I'm willing to roll the dice on a ZZZX lynch, sure. But I replaced into this game late and I don't think that's the general consensus here. What I KNOW we can't do is this:

1. Force scum to hammer BRO. You'll just get a no-lynch that way imo regardless of whether I'm right and BRO is town or if I'm wrong and he's scum.
2. Both kill ZZZX (if he's town) and ever lynch BRO (if he's town).

Honestly, we're rolling the dice either way in my opinion.

And AD has done nothing all game that makes me think he's town except the cop thing and pretending he was more than one shot for part of the following day. I especially hate Post 2153, for what it's worth. However, it's WIFOM -- would scum make that post? I don't know.

If I were able to lynch someone with one vote, my gut would say Bella/Desperado. I don't think ANYONE agrees with that, though, and it's like three days to deadline if I recall correctly.

Bookitty · Post Post #3763 (isolation #24) » Thu Feb 12, 2015 2:46 pm

Okay. I disagree with this:

1. Early in the game how could his role have been that big a threat? I mean, *I* would have voted him if I'd thought he was scum. Trading town for scum is a no-brainer when we're not close to LYLO.
2. I have no clue why you think this. Explain.
3. If most people don't want to lynch him, then tell me why he is scum?

You realise that if he is lynched today (and that's certainly a real possibility) he's likely taking you out with him if he's town. If he's scum, all bets are off and he could take out anyone. So explain to me why he's scum, AD. To quote O-Ren, "Now's the fucking time."

Bookitty · Post Post #3764 (isolation #25) » Thu Feb 12, 2015 2:52 pm

ActionDan: If we run BROseidon up to L-1 will you hammer?

Bookitty · Post Post #3765 (isolation #26) » Thu Feb 12, 2015 2:55 pm

In post 2661, ZZZX wrote:I still dont think that claiming is the best course of action but getting nk'd is better than getting lynched nontheless

Why is this true, ZZZX? Can you explain?

Bookitty · Post Post #3775 (isolation #27) » Fri Feb 13, 2015 4:28 am

@CDB: What is your current read on ZZZX? Like, lynchable for you?

I can support that lynch too even though if we're wrong it's costly

We won't have another shot at finding out unless we get scum today and maybe not even then if we take out a townie with the scum.

If ZZZX is town then the scum will take him out when it's most advantageous to them. This isn't most advantageous to us, but I think it's the last remaining time it will be possible for us to find out.

Bookitty · Post Post #3777 (isolation #28) » Fri Feb 13, 2015 4:51 am

It will be impossible after that if we're wrong, though. Just noting it.

So we need to decide now if he's town all the way through or if we need to lynch him. (There is a third thing that could happen, but I figure you can guess it and I don't think it helps town to talk about it right now.)

If we're going to trust ZZZX, then I am okay with 1. Lynching BRO and making AD hammer since he says he will (a no lynch isn't deadly here and we'd know AD was scum if he didn't) or 2. Lynching AD outright.

I also get a Beetlejuice feel from AD. Can you remember if you had a similar feeling earlier in the game when I was not here yet? (This to anyone.)

Bookitty · Post Post #3780 (isolation #29) » Fri Feb 13, 2015 6:07 am

@BROseidon: Which scenario do you prefer? Do you want to lynch AD, lynch ZZZX or use your power to kill AD? (Yeah, I think you're town, I'm not going to put in "alleged" or "claimed" power at this point.)

Worst case scenario:

If AD, BRO and ZZZX are all town and there are four scum remaining:

7-4 right now
5-4 after BRO lynch and AD kill
ZZZX= night kill
4-4
auto loss

Even with 3 scum remaining, it's not pretty:

8-3 right now
6-3 after BRO lynch and AD kill
5-3 ZZZX night kill
4-3 Some other townie dies
4-3 LYLO

All other scenarios give us one more day phase than this.

Please correct math mistakes if you see them.
Thanks!

Bookitty · Post Post #3781 (isolation #30) » Fri Feb 13, 2015 6:08 am

It's important to note that if ZZZX is town then he's right and we're possibly in LYLO right now.

Bookitty · Post Post #3784 (isolation #31) » Fri Feb 13, 2015 6:25 am

In post 3783, ActionDan wrote:I thought zzzx was bp in addition to being a princess

Not according to his game he's not. Where did you get that impression?

Bookitty · Post Post #3794 (isolation #32) » Fri Feb 13, 2015 7:06 am

In post 2647, Kise wrote:
In post 2621, Triforce wrote:Kise SHOULD know this.

Face to face? I remember you two in lylo with me and Mina or mollie. The other town voted me, then you two grinned and mislynched me and I was sad. Then Mina or mollie was like "wow singer fooled me, gj girlfriend" and I cried inside.

I will agree that singer can be pointed out when scum and she hates it, but that's what I remember from the Commune visits. I haven't played/seen an online game with either of you individually in a long time so I'm not even sure who's been posting when and where. I think the last time I played with singer was under my alt and she endgamed us as scum. Last I played with you Glork...oh dear. Cali Trilogy 3 perhaps.

I'm just gonna go ahead and speculate that ZZZX is softclaiming princess since time is of the essence. He needs to fight back with something because otherwise I'm not thrilled with his reply. No lynch might be worth it if we can get Dan on the case.

First mention of princess. I don't know why Kise thought that though.

Kise, why did you think he was softclaiming princess, please?

Bookitty · Post Post #3795 (isolation #33) » Fri Feb 13, 2015 7:13 am

AD: Taking BRO completely off the table, who would you lynch today if your one vote could get the job done?

Same question for BRO: If AD was not in the game, who would you lynch today if you had one-shot lynch ability?

Bookitty · Post Post #3798 (isolation #34) » Fri Feb 13, 2015 7:40 am

I'm completely weirded out by discovering that ZZZX didn't actually claim beloved princess but accepted Kise's suggestion. (I know it's not exactly like that but that's sure as hell how it reads.) I don't know why I didn't notice this on my first readthrough.

CDB and BRO, can you give me your reads on Kise? Thanks in advance!

Bookitty · Post Post #3799 (isolation #35) » Fri Feb 13, 2015 7:41 am

Also:

@Reck:

If I can get more people to request an extension with me, could we have a couple more days to discuss stuff? Also a prod on Bella to come back and talk before deadline hits would be so appreciated. Thank you! <3

Bookitty · Post Post #3800 (isolation #36) » Fri Feb 13, 2015 7:48 am

@Anyone:

If you want a bit of extra time to discuss and figure things out, please request extension. Maybe Reck will take pity on us and help us out.

For now:

UNVOTE:

Bookitty · Post Post #3802 (isolation #37) » Fri Feb 13, 2015 9:37 am

@Mod:

Please prod Bella too, if you would be so kind. Thank you!

Bookitty · Post Post #3805 (isolation #38) » Fri Feb 13, 2015 9:48 am

@4Burner: Please look at Kise. If AD is town (I don't know. I'm considering it) then we have to look at Kise more closely. I'm going to do it too.

Bookitty · Fri Feb 13, 2015 10:18 am

Yes, but how would Kise know that he was a beloved prince before he claimed it?

It's weird. I want Kise to explain it because I can't see how he got there before the claim.

Bookitty · Fri Feb 13, 2015 10:23 am

Hey, also, JMJ, could you ask Reck for an extension in thread? I would be most grateful.

Bookitty · Fri Feb 13, 2015 11:08 am

@ActionDan: Whether you are town or scum, it is likely to your advantage for town to have more time to discuss right now. Just saying.

Bookitty · Post Post #3812 (isolation #42) » Fri Feb 13, 2015 1:51 pm

That could be almost any power role quite honestly. I don't see how you make the leap to a specific Beloved Princess from a general "my role is better left unclaimed." After all, AD was arguing that Supersaint was better left unclaimed.

If someone says they don't want to claim their role, my mind doesn't automatically go to Beloved Princess. Can you walk me through your thought process on that?

Bookitty · Post Post #3815 (isolation #43) » Fri Feb 13, 2015 2:09 pm

Then why did you out the role when you think it's so much better not to claim it -- so much so that you immediately think of it when someone says "My role is better unclaimed. I will leave it at that. if things gets too sad I will have to claim but lets say that its for the town's advantage that I don't claim my role." you think of Beloved Princess immediately as the single role most likely to say that?

If you think it's so much better not to claim it, why claim it for ZZZX?

Bookitty · Post Post #3817 (isolation #44) » Fri Feb 13, 2015 2:40 pm

I readily admit that our experiences and opinions may be different, but to have hit upon the exact role of someone based on fairly vague evidence like this:

"My role is better unclaimed. I will leave it at that. if things gets too sad I will have to claim but lets say that its for the town's advantage that I don't claim my role."

when you don't even know his game yet is very suspicious to me. It shows way too much knowledge imo.

I'm looking for other opinions on this. Is this what people automatically think if someone says what ZZZX said above?

Also, I think I know why ActionDan thought it was bulletproof. A lot of people were calling it BP (beloved prince) and it could easily become confusing for someone who didn't KNOW the role.

Okay. As always, I could be wrong, but here is how I have it:

Kise knows that ZZZX is or plans to (or could) claim Beloved Prince beforehand. Either this means that Kise and ZZZX are scum together and discussing things or that Kise has a result from (it can only be JMJ's rolecop, no one else has one). But JMJ was cleared by AD, so unless AD is scum with JMJ AND Kise, that doesn't work.

So that's one threesome (AD, JMJ, Kise). The problem here is that JMJ roleblocked 4Burner. He can't do that AND be the rolecop. So you have to add in 4burner to this. At that point, you have to start playing conspiracy theories that don't make sense for scum imo.

What I think (and I could be wrong, but you can tell me that) is that Kise and ZZZX are scum together and Kise slipped up there. Either of them flipping scum implicates the other imo.

If you (not Kise) would automatically think Beloved Prince from the evidence given in the thread, please tell me so. That's not what I would think, though.

VOTE: Kise

Bookitty · Post Post #3818 (isolation #45) » Fri Feb 13, 2015 2:50 pm

Okay, I'm wrong. Nexus was a rolecop. I was stupidly only looking at living players and just now thought to look at the flipped ones.

So ZZZX doesn't have to be scum with Kise.

I still think Kise is scum.

Bookitty · Post Post #3820 (isolation #46) » Fri Feb 13, 2015 3:55 pm

I'll wait for others to weigh in. But if Nexus couldn't have given the information, the theory I presented in Post 3817 still seems valid to me.

If you see mistakes (ANYONE, please) tell me. To me it looks vanishingly unlikely that Kise would nail ZZZX's role in one shot given the information we have. It's too much information.

I'll check into this more tomorrow morning early.

Bookitty · Post Post #3823 (isolation #47) » Sat Feb 14, 2015 2:31 am

I don't see a rolecop left among any of the alive people except for JMJ, which would necessitate this scum group:

AD-scum for lying about JMJ
JMJ-scum for being a rolecop
Kise-scum for knowing about ZZZX before the claim

I thought about ZZZX-scum just going with what Kise said and agreeing to it to save his sorry hide, but that makes no sense because ZZZX's game would have to have a Beloved Princess and it's not that common a role. ZZZX didn't claim his game until after Kise claimed a role for him.

I think ZZZX and Kise have to be scum together for this to make sense.

If you believe that Kise could have magically derived the correct assumption that ZZZX was a beloved princess from this:

In post 2581, ZZZX wrote:My role is better unclaimed. I will leave it at that. if things gets too sad I will have to claim but lets say that its for the town's advantage that I don't claim my role.

then I'm wrong and you should tell me so. Otherwise, please come lynch this with me.

Bookitty · Post Post #3828 (isolation #48) » Sat Feb 14, 2015 3:45 am

I think Nexus's attack on ZZZX went just about nowhere. It did elicit ZZZX's comment about being a paragon of late-game scumhuntiness. I could easily see it as distancing, but it's hard to say because Nexus was killed before he could do anything else about it.

I don't see what you're seeing about Triforce and UT thinking it was beloved princess. Can you link me up please?

Nothing in Kise's posts has made me think he would have looked at all the games for the possible town roles; also, doing so at that point would have been somewhat a scumtell given that it's rolehunting and I don't think town would have the motivation to do that with so many people alive. Certainly Kise specifically hasn't looked remarkably motivated to investigate and share that information with town.

Ninja'd:

@CDB:

I also don't think my proposed team works, and said so. I think Kise is scum with ZZZX.

Do you think it's plausible that Kise just pulled the right role out of his hat for ZZZX? Is that where your mind went to when ZZZX didn't want to claim?

Bookitty · Post Post #3830 (isolation #49) » Sat Feb 14, 2015 3:47 am

In post 3817, Bookitty wrote:Kise knows that ZZZX is or plans to (or could) claim Beloved Prince beforehand. Either this means that Kise and ZZZX are scum together and discussing things or that Kise has a result from (it can only be JMJ's rolecop, no one else has one). But JMJ was cleared by AD, so unless AD is scum with JMJ AND Kise, that doesn't work.

So that's one threesome (AD, JMJ, Kise). The problem here is that JMJ roleblocked 4Burner. He can't do that AND be the rolecop. So you have to add in 4burner to this. At that point, you have to start playing conspiracy theories that don't make sense for scum imo.

What I think (and I could be wrong, but you can tell me that) is that Kise and ZZZX are scum together and Kise slipped up there. Either of them flipping scum implicates the other imo.

Here's where I landed. I had a moment of freak-out because Nexus was a rolecop but I was obviously wrong there.

Bookitty · Post Post #3831 (isolation #50) » Sat Feb 14, 2015 3:48 am

In post 3829, ChannelDelibird wrote:Oh FFS, I'm posting in a hurry from work and I didn't quite grasp the full meaning of your post. FUCK. I might still have been able to hold out for another Day.

Sorry

Bookitty · Post Post #3838 (isolation #51) » Sat Feb 14, 2015 5:07 am

At this point, I don't think we're getting an extension. No one seems all that interested other than me and I think 4burner, anyway. If people think it's plausible that Kise somehow divined "Beloved Prince" from ZZZX not wanting to claim, I don't have a lot else. Honestly, I sort of just want this to end either way because it's very hard to reread everything from every new perspective that occurs to me.

I believe CDB. I'm willing to roll the dice and do the BRO-AD thing, I guess, though I'm unconvinced that AD is scum because it doesn't fit with the things I believe to be true still.

I don't know why ZZZX is still alive if he's town.
I think I'd prefer a BRO-Kise lynch-vengeful to a BRO-AD lynch-vengeful.
I'm suffering from paranoia and I can't read this whole game again in the time we have left.

Meh. I'll move my vote to get a lynch before deadline if it goes that way.

Bookitty · Post Post #3845 (isolation #52) » Sat Feb 14, 2015 5:41 am

I don't care.

Vanilla Town. General Beckman, Chuck Season 1.

Bookitty · Post Post #3864 (isolation #53) » Sun Feb 15, 2015 3:41 am

Bookitty's Very UnOfficial Vote Count

ActionDan
(3): Kise, BROseidon, ChannelDelibird

ZZZX
(3): jmj3000, 4burner, Bella,

Kise
(2): ActionDan, Bookitty

4burner
(1): ZZZX

Riddleton
(1): PeregrineV

Not Voting
(1): Riddleton

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch.

Deadline
: (expired on 2015-02-16 12:14:00)

Riddleton hasn't posted in eight days. He has been active on site during that time. It's going to be difficult to get a lynch without his help in the time we have left. Still, I'm going to assume he's not going to be replaced in the day remaining to us.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: ZZZX

I don't feel the ActionDan lynch and I'll move my vote to AD only to avoid a no-lynch. ZZZX is the next biggest wagon to ActionDan and he's defending him; would scum do that? Read Post 3791 for evidence of this. I don't agree with the sentiment but I think it's town.

At no point during the game has ZZZX shown the urgency I would feel with an outed power role that made me a target for the nightkill. He's given us a big heaping handful of nothing throughout most of the game; if he were town with a real expiration date, I'd expect very different engagement with the game.

Updated:

Bookitty's Very UnOfficial Vote Count Redux

ActionDan
(3): Kise, BROseidon, ChannelDelibird

ZZZX
(4): jmj3000, 4burner, Bella, Bookitty

Kise
(1): ActionDan

4burner
(1): ZZZX

Riddleton
(1): PeregrineV

Not Voting
(1): Riddleton

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch.

Deadline
: (expired on 2015-02-16 12:14:00)

Bookitty · Post Post #3867 (isolation #54) » Sun Feb 15, 2015 4:44 am

ZZZX: What happened to being the master of late game?

I would have settled for your putting in the work and giving your insights at ANY point. Why make a claim like that when you're not living up to it?

I'll read whatever meta you want to give, but you realise it won't matter because YOU made that possible for them in those games, right? The power is in your hands, even now. If you're town, show me!

Bookitty · Post Post #3869 (isolation #55) » Sun Feb 15, 2015 5:12 am

You realise that we're less than a day away from deadline, right?

Day started on February 2, 2015 at 12:03 p.m.

I asked for an extension, something that if you were town and actively trying to solve the game you would have jumped on immediately.

If you were town, I'd think you'd know you would be killed tonight to give scum two kills for the price of one.

Where is your sense of urgency? You are still playing survivalistic and if you were REALLY a town power role you'd know you wouldn't survive.

When will you take the lead? When were you PLANNING to do this?

Bookitty · Post Post #3870 (isolation #56) » Sun Feb 15, 2015 6:22 am

In post 3706, ZZZX wrote:scum reads:
17. Kise
02. 4burner
06. jmj3000

leaning scum reads:
03. ActionDan

null/netural (aka not leaning any way really)
16. Bookitty (REPLACEMENT OVERLOAD) (prob a vanilla? idk)
15. ChannelDelibird
07. Bella Desperado

leaning town:
09. Riddleton
04. BROseidon
12. PeregrineV

got no solid town reads which disappoint me :<

In post 3865, ZZZX wrote:so If we end up voting off my top suspects then you 2 are next on the list

Oh holy hell this bothers me. If we voted off his top suspects and they were all town, then we've lost. There's not going to be any "you're next" for that. ZZZX knows we don't have multiple mislynches because he's said that if we lynch him we've lost. At best it's fearmongering without reason and at worst he's scumslipping because of cogdis about what he's presenting for us and what he knows to be true. Either way, I think he's scum.

Bookitty · Post Post #3878 (isolation #57) » Sun Feb 15, 2015 7:28 am

In post 3877, BROseidon wrote:That's not true? Unless you want to count Speakeasy/Arcarde posts...

That counts too, especially since this Day is just hours from being over.

Why is ZZZX off the table for you? Is it just the claim?

Bookitty · Post Post #3882 (isolation #58) » Sun Feb 15, 2015 8:24 am

@BRO: Can you elaborate? What about his play seems really town to you? Do you agree with his scumlist, townlist and his implicit belief that he can wait to provide the valuable help he promised?

Ninja'd: How the hell can you help us find scum if you're not even reading the game, ZZZX? The deadline request was not secret or concealed in spoiler text.

You DO know deadline is almost here, don't you? Why would you make threats about people being on your to-lynch list after THREE people are dead makes sense? If they're all scum, we probably won.

WHY are you acting like you're at no risk of nightkill if you are what you claim to be?

Bookitty · Post Post #3884 (isolation #59) » Sun Feb 15, 2015 8:37 am

Okay. Let me line it out for you.

Let's say we lynch someone on your list. Kise was a possible with a few votes on your list, but you made no move to join that wagon when it was a thing. So you're not interested in lynching who you're interested in lynching, apparently.

JMJ is either a godfather or cleared. 4Burner may have a way to verify him tonight. If JMJ is an odd night roleblocker, he's cleared of being a scum roleblocker based on his game if I remember correctly, so there's a scum roleblocker out there based on CDB's claim.

So let's say we lynched Kise and he flipped town. If you were town, you'd expect to be killed tonight to bring on LYLO. Saying that if we lynch through your list you'll then suspect other people is like me telling CDB "If ZZZX and Kise flip town then you're next!" There IS no next. Either you're dead and can't push your vague (and unnamed) suspicions or you're alive and scum decided to forego back-to-back night kills for [reasons that make no sense].

Or you are scum who can't keep it straight that your claim makes you a preferred nightkill and thus say things that assume that you will be around tomorrow and the next day and the next.

If you are scum AND you are lynched your list is pointless. If people persist in reading you as town, though, your list is certainly enough to carry you through LYLO and apparently beyond for a bunch more days that I don't expect we have.

Bookitty · Sun Feb 15, 2015 10:00 am

Thank you, Reck! <3

Bookitty · Sun Feb 15, 2015 10:32 am

If you would like a summary from my perspective (and please note I replaced in late myself) then I'd be happy to write something up for you.

Everyone has claimed except for Kise and you.

Bookitty · Post Post #3894 (isolation #62) » Sun Feb 15, 2015 1:14 pm

Please don't waste this time. We can win this if we work together and argue things out.

If you think my theory about Kise-ZZZX is full of holes, then tell me so. If you have a better idea than lynching ActionDan (who I grudgingly think is town) or ZZZX, who I really feel is scum hiding behind a scary PR claim, then please please tell me.

@ZZZX: We got extra time. Use it well. Demonstrate those late-game skills.

UNVOTE:

I'm waiting specifically to hear from you now.

Bookitty · Post Post #3932 (isolation #63) » Mon Feb 16, 2015 7:11 pm

Well, I fell asleep. I'm sorry.

I'm planning to work on this early in the morning. I need to write up a summary from my perspective for Fferyllt and to look at her claim more carefully.

Sorry again.

Bookitty · Post Post #3949 (isolation #64) » Tue Feb 17, 2015 7:30 am

Okay, I'm not going to get to that summary. I had time the evening I offered it, but right now I'm having ISP issues, nursing a cold and swamped with writing assignments. /end whine

I am pretty sure CDB is town. I'm leaning town on ActionDan because why in the hell would he say he'd rather be lynched over ZZZX if he were scum?

I think Mollie's interaction with Majiffy after the reach-out is pretty much what I'd expect from her; overt comment on her part might have outed him. Mollie is a pretty savvy player imo and I think she would have known better than to embrace Majiffy and declare him her brother-town. She disagreed with him, but she never showed the anger I've seen in other cases where she's suspicious of someone.

Specifically:

Post 954 doesn't show any signs of trying to sort Majiffy, something she said she could do given time. It seems pretty confidently town-to-town.

The counter to this is here:

In post 1165, 50 Shades of Purple wrote:I think I already said this but I am not voting ut cos I think he is scummy I was voting him cos he annoyed me with interfering me trying to sort out julz but mostly cos I wanna see where majiffy goes with this. but since I have had to point out a couple of times that this is what I am doing it most likely won't be very effective in determining what majiffy's motivations were.

But I don't know just what mollie means here by motivations; I do note that Majiffy ceased to be a priority for her right after Night One and never ever becomes one again.

Anyway, Riddleton's activity around the Ooba lynch makes me think he was town and Ffery inherited his alignment, so I'm sticking with town here.

4burner and JMJ have potential to confirm each other tonight, I think. I have 4burner as town anyway, not so sure on JMJ. BROseidon seems town based on his role and how he's choosing to use it.

I still have ZZZX as almost certain scum. I could go for Kise as well.

Peregrine and Bella are pretty null to me and not priorities at the moment anyway.

Bookitty · Post Post #3954 (isolation #65) » Tue Feb 17, 2015 7:44 am

In post 3952, ChannelDelibird wrote:Kind of annoyed that nobody seems to have commented on the possibility of ZZZX hammering BROseidon.

I thought about it, actually. I'm not able to convince people to bite the bullet and take out ZZZX on his own, though, so I thought it would be pointless to consider that too seriously. Also, math came in and had a word with me:

If BRO and ZZZX are both town (and I'm leaning town on BRO) then we're taking out three town plus a likely nightkill which will certainly be town. I think we have 11 players left; after that, we'd have seven of which three at least are scum.

Worst case scenario (four scum) we've lost the game. It's a high-risk gamble.

Bookitty · Post Post #3955 (isolation #66) » Tue Feb 17, 2015 7:45 am

Correction because I'm stupid (the gist is still right): If BRO and ZZZX are both town (and I'm leaning town on BRO) then we're taking out two town plus two likely nightkills which will certainly be town.

Bookitty · Post Post #3963 (isolation #67) » Tue Feb 17, 2015 7:51 am

In post 3957, ActionDan wrote:But lynching town!zzzx makes it likely 8 people which still loses to 4 scum

This is true too.

For me it's safer and better to lynch Kise first because if he flips scum, then my case on ZZZX is stronger (and safer) and if he flips town I think my case on ZZZX is much weaker.

On a reread of Ooba, I was also thinking his vote on Kise right before he was lynched looked weird too. Someone else pointed it out at the time; why not vote Aegor, who was town and had a wagon?

Bookitty · Post Post #3965 (isolation #68) » Tue Feb 17, 2015 8:10 am

I'm going to try something based on the fact that I think Peregrine is town by investigation and pretty much by play:

People I think are pretty much cleared:

ChannelDelibird
BROseidon
ActionDan
PeregrineV
Fferyllt
me

Maybe scum:

JMJ3000, Bella, Kise, ZZZX, 4burner

Possible 4-people scumteams:

JMJ3000, Bella, Kise, ZZZX
4burner, JMJ3000, Bella, Kise
4burner, JMJ3000, Kise, ZZZX
4burner, JMJ3000, Bella, ZZZX
4burner, Kise, Bella, ZZZX

I'm aware my suspicions are not necessarily the same as anyone else's, but I really encourage people to do a similar exercise and come up with the scumteam they think most likely. Mine is the first one:

JMJ3000, Bella, Kise, ZZZX

Because I would be very surprised if 4burner were scum.

I'd be willing to vote anyone on that list with a minor quibble about JMJ since I think he may be able to confirm himself and prove my list wrong somewhere.

Bookitty · Tue Feb 17, 2015 10:12 am

If I had to put one more person in my scumlist, it would be Ffery, I guess.

BRO is trying to get himself lynched; I don't see how that goes with scum who would win with a mislynch. AD is trying to get himself lynched in place of ZZZX; again, how does that make sense for scum?

Between BRO and AD, I don't know exactly. It's possible that BRO is pushing his lynch to take out a townie, but then why tunnel on AD so exclusively? AD-town wouldn't be my target if I were scum with a venge kill. They can't possibly be scum together. AD would be more likely, I guess, because he says he would hammer but we don't know if he will do it. Maybe, but I don't see how that would work exactly.

Bookitty · Tue Feb 17, 2015 11:59 am

In post 3971, BROseidon wrote:
In post 3969, Bookitty wrote:BRO is trying to get himself lynched; I don't see how that goes with scum who would win with a mislynch. AD is trying to get himself lynched in place of ZZZX; again, how does that make sense for scum?

I've seen scum WK by saying "I'd rather I get lynched over X" then let the lynch push through anyways. T-Bone/UT pulled that shit WKing me in Wicked Mafia.

I think AD is more likely to be lynched today than ZZZX. Still, your point is taken.

Oh, and UNVOTE: . If there are four scum, we can't afford this.

Bookitty · Tue Feb 17, 2015 12:04 pm

In post 3973, BROseidon wrote:Ffery's claim is pretty town imo. I don't see why she would come into the game and make that sort of claim as scum.

Got a read on Bella I can steal and pretend was my own?

I thought Desp was town and I'm not sure how much my read on Bella is being coloured by that, in seriousness.

Peregrine is conftown if CDB is town, which I think he is, but I keep forgetting that. Remind me if I forget again, please.

Peregrine, can you sell me on Bella-scum in short? Thanks in advance!

Bookitty · Post Post #3981 (isolation #72) » Tue Feb 17, 2015 2:16 pm

I still think ZZZX is scum but on the chance I'm wrong I'm sure we can't afford to lynch him today and probably not tomorrow either.

I really don't want to vote ActionDan but I guess I'm willing to to get a lynch. Shockingly enough, I've been wrong before and it's possible I'm wrong now.

Bookitty · Post Post #3985 (isolation #73) » Tue Feb 17, 2015 3:07 pm

I <3 you, CDB. Thank you.

One thing to note is that if JMJ roleblocks 4burner/Dan (pick randomly) then he can possibly stop the roleblock. I don't know if we'd know, but it might be worth it to try depending on how many scum are left.

Bookitty · Post Post #3988 (isolation #74) » Wed Feb 18, 2015 3:37 am

Okay. From a role perspective and a figuring things out perspective, I think this might be the best plan:

1. Lynch AD. I don't think he's scum but he's one of a few possible roleblockers. I'd prefer Kise but we don't have time for that.

VOTE: ActionDan

2. JMJ should block only among possible roleblocker candidates:

Kise, BRO, Bookitty, 4burner (ActionDan if not lynched)

But probably shouldn't say who he's roleblocking in these.

CDB can be trusted to cop whoever he wants. It might be better to cop among people without a godfather in the mix, but I'm sure he knows how to deal with this better than I do.

If there are any protective roles not flipped then I request they protect CDB.

That's what I've got so far.

Please unvote ZZZX; we can't afford to lynch him right now.

Bookitty · Post Post #3993 (isolation #75) » Wed Feb 18, 2015 5:50 am

In post 3991, ActionDan wrote:I mean I guess you're throwing then.

I tried hard to get a Kise lynch but I was on a lonely little crusade in that endeavour. I think ZZZX is scum (especially given his absence during these discussions) but you would rather die than that.

I would still prefer Kise-lynch over your lynch, because I do think you're town.

It's just too late now.

Bookitty · Post Post #3999 (isolation #76) » Wed Feb 18, 2015 6:23 am

I'm going for a little while and won't be near a keyboard (an hour at most away, I think) so I'm going to do this now and hope that it is not too late.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Kise

I can move it back (or somewhere else) to make sure we get a lynch. (Is no lynch something we should be considering? I wasn't, but I can try to think about it upon my return from a math point of view.)

Bookitty · Post Post #4004 (isolation #77) » Wed Feb 18, 2015 7:35 am

I imagine that CDB and I will end up on the same wagon and I suspect that wagon will be AD, Ffery.

CDB has been in this game for much longer than I have and I trust him; his reads are likely to be more accurate and more detailed than mine imo.

Bookitty · Post Post #4018 (isolation #78) » Wed Feb 18, 2015 4:33 pm

I expect to weigh in with a vote on ActionDan in the morning.

Once again ZZZX has given us a series of posts in which he eschews logic, reason or simple common sense and in which he gives us no reasons for an AD vote and then a 4burner vote that amount to more than "Trust me." I don't trust him. He acts like he's going to be around tomorrow to explain his reasoning when, if he were actually town and the role he claimed, he should have been posting frantically to help town ever since he was outed.

I wish I could vote him today

Bookitty · Thu Feb 19, 2015 12:38 am

UNVOTE:
VOTE: ActionDan

If ZZZX is alive tomorrow he's scum. I'm SO not impressed with his sudden interest in this game and desire to start a new wagon with less than 24 hours to deadline. Santa watches you all year long, ZZZX, not just right before the holidays.

I'd happily roll the dice and lynch him too. Waiting to see what CDB says there.

Bookitty · Thu Feb 19, 2015 12:51 am

@4burner: I had already indicated my intention to lynch ActionDan. ZZZX even voted him for a brief moment of time before moving his vote to you. Then I said we couldn't afford to lynch ZZZX (I'm going by my memory because of lack of time, so if this is wrong please correct me). Then comes ZZZX's zero-hour flurry of activity in which he claims to have 75 percent of the game figured out but never backs that up. Plays some CS Go in preference to this game, highlighting its importance to him.

By my count, 32 of ZZZX's 215 posts in this game came in the last eight hours. This is not a hallmark of town to me. He's also defending AD to a huge degree despite that vote I mentioned by not even including him in his odd scumteam, which honestly makes no sense to me.

Based on ZZZX's posts alone, I support the theory of AD-ZZZX scum. AD's play is all that makes that less likely.

A Personal Message to ZZZX

@4burner: I feel much the same. You're not alone.

Bookitty · Post Post #4081 (isolation #81) » Thu Feb 19, 2015 1:06 am

Okay. I'm going to explain this as simply as I can, ZZZX.

You have claimed a beloved prince role. You did this several nights ago.
If you were a town beloved prince, you should have expected to be night killed pretty much at any time.
If you were nightkilled, you wouldn't be able to help town anymore.
Still, throughout the game after your claim you were pretty much missing in action.
You showed no sense of urgency in helping town until about eight hours ago.
You didn't weigh in for the extension even though you claimed to have a lot to say. It was more than one line, ZZZX. I asked for it, I asked others to vote for it, I even got support from 4burner. CDB weighed in too. But you had nothing to say there.
The same frantic postings you're making now are what I would have expected from town-you before every time we went to night over the last few days. In your place, I'd expect to be dead if I were being truthful. Instead, you reserve this "desire to help town" until you're one of two lynches late on the day in what looks to be LYLO.
Your play makes no sense for a Beloved Prince based on all of the above. It plays like survivalistic scum.

Where were you earlier in the game when it wasn't four hours to deadline in LYLO? Why didn't you think you were a likely nightkill? Why are you posting like 15 times in a row only now?

I see you've multiposted again and I'll read that after I post this.

Bookitty · Post Post #4082 (isolation #82) » Thu Feb 19, 2015 1:09 am

See, that's also bad, ZZZX, because I know my own alignment and I know you're wrong or lying about it. This undermines everything else you say about your late-game scum-hunting prowess.

I'm not ignoring you. I'm saying your play makes no sense for town with your claimed role.

It's worth noting that it's 6:00 a.m., I woke up not long ago and I have to get ready for work, before you demand answers on your time frame and start throwing another fit about people ignoring you.

Bookitty · Post Post #4092 (isolation #83) » Thu Feb 19, 2015 1:41 am

In post 4083, ZZZX wrote:I understand the time part. and I understand that but there is no way to know your time frame. and if you dont want me to demand answers on my time frame what aobut the others who demand answers from me at thier time frame? if someone going to say something he is going to do it. (which is the main case i have vs 4burner)

First, being wrong about my alignment undermines my faith in your other reads. That would be true regardless of your alignment.

You've had a time frame of weeks to make your presence felt. People have asked you repeatedly to weigh in with various degrees of snark about your claimed late-game prowess. You have been missing in action. Throwing a fit about how you won't be ignored now doesn't undo your lack of anything useful over that time period.

Bookitty · Post Post #4097 (isolation #84) » Thu Feb 19, 2015 1:53 am

In post 4095, BROseidon wrote:This looks like a last-ditch effort to derail a wagon on a buddy. We hammer dan, and when he flips scum we turbo-lynch ZZZX tomorrow.

I support this theory and plan of action.

Bookitty · Post Post #4129 (isolation #85) » Thu Feb 19, 2015 3:52 am

@ZZZX: Trust is something that is earned throughout the course of a long game, not achieved by spam posting when it suits you. You lack credibility because you have earned none.

Bookitty · Post Post #4135 (isolation #86) » Thu Feb 19, 2015 4:18 am

You didn't want to vote ZZZX at all and said you preferred your own lynch to his. So your vote wouldn't have gone there. BRO was going to vote himself or you regardless. I tried my hardest to get either a Kise or ZZZX lynch and I got basically nowhere. I don't know where you think I could get these votes for ZZZX for, but you sure as hell saw that I couldn't for Kise.

Do you not prefer your lynch to ZZZX's anymore? Because I don't get your attitude here now that it's a fait accompli.

Bookitty · Sun Feb 22, 2015 12:10 pm

I would like to hear ChannelDelibird's investigation result.

Bookitty · Post Post #4161 (isolation #88) » Mon Feb 23, 2015 6:23 am

Of the four you listed, I have had Kise and ZZZX as likely scumbuddies. If ZZZX was legitimately a Beloved Prince, why didn't scum kill him last night?

Bookitty · Post Post #4179 (isolation #89) » Tue Feb 24, 2015 3:56 am

@ZZZX: Why, in your opinion, would scum have kept you alive last night given that with your claimed role, killing you would probably have won them the game?

Bookitty · Post Post #4185 (isolation #90) » Tue Feb 24, 2015 8:27 am

In post 4180, PeregrineV wrote:Not sure what you are looking for from me. What do you want specifically?

Yesterday I was guessing at a Kise-ZZZX scumteam. I'm more convinced of that now than I was then. What do you think of:

1. ZZZX's continued existence given his claimed role
2. Kise claiming ZZZX's role for him before ZZZX did?

Thanks!

Bookitty · Post Post #4188 (isolation #91) » Tue Feb 24, 2015 9:37 am

@Peregrine:

In post 2647, Kise wrote:
In post 2621, Triforce wrote:Kise SHOULD know this.

Face to face? I remember you two in lylo with me and Mina or mollie. The other town voted me, then you two grinned and mislynched me and I was sad. Then Mina or mollie was like "wow singer fooled me, gj girlfriend" and I cried inside.

I will agree that singer can be pointed out when scum and she hates it, but that's what I remember from the Commune visits. I haven't played/seen an online game with either of you individually in a long time so I'm not even sure who's been posting when and where. I think the last time I played with singer was under my alt and she endgamed us as scum. Last I played with you Glork...oh dear. Cali Trilogy 3 perhaps.

I'm just gonna go ahead and speculate that ZZZX is softclaiming princess since time is of the essence.
He needs to fight back with something because otherwise I'm not thrilled with his reply. No lynch might be worth it if we can get Dan on the case.

The bolded was prior to ZZZX's claim and was based on ZZZX not wanting to claim his role.

Bookitty · Post Post #4201 (isolation #92) » Tue Feb 24, 2015 1:21 pm

In post 4196, ChannelDelibird wrote:VOTE: ZZZX I think I'm willing to bet the game on this.

I agree in principle with this.

Kise, do you support a ZZZX lynch at this time? What do you think about his continued survival given his claim?

Bookitty · Post Post #4212 (isolation #93) » Thu Feb 26, 2015 4:11 am

I am pretty sure about the ZZZX lynch. I'm trying to figure out likely buddies, but every time I think I have a team that works it runs into one of my townreads.

@Peregrine: Did you get a chance to look at the post I linked you up to in which Kise claimed ZZZX's role for him? I'm told that if someone steadfastly refuses to claim that Beloved Princess is a pretty automatic guess, but I don't feel that way myself.

Bookitty · Post Post #4214 (isolation #94) » Thu Feb 26, 2015 1:10 pm

If ZZZX is scum (something I believe) then 4burner and CDB aren't.

That's what I've derived so far.

Anyone who doesn't think ZZZX is scum, please give your proposed scumteams that don't include him. Thank you in advance!

Bookitty · Post Post #4216 (isolation #95) » Fri Feb 27, 2015 4:17 am

Why is it that you think JMJ and PV are conftown, ZZZX?

Based on what you're presenting here, shouldn't at least one more person be conftown for you?

Bookitty · Post Post #4218 (isolation #96) » Fri Feb 27, 2015 4:36 am

In post 4216, Bookitty wrote:Why is it that you think JMJ and PV are conftown, ZZZX?

Bookitty · Post Post #4220 (isolation #97) » Fri Feb 27, 2015 4:56 am

In post 4188, Bookitty wrote:@Peregrine:
In post 2647, Kise wrote:
In post 2621, Triforce wrote:Kise SHOULD know this.

Face to face? I remember you two in lylo with me and Mina or mollie. The other town voted me, then you two grinned and mislynched me and I was sad. Then Mina or mollie was like "wow singer fooled me, gj girlfriend" and I cried inside.

I will agree that singer can be pointed out when scum and she hates it, but that's what I remember from the Commune visits. I haven't played/seen an online game with either of you individually in a long time so I'm not even sure who's been posting when and where. I think the last time I played with singer was under my alt and she endgamed us as scum. Last I played with you Glork...oh dear. Cali Trilogy 3 perhaps.

I'm just gonna go ahead and speculate that ZZZX is softclaiming princess since time is of the essence.
He needs to fight back with something because otherwise I'm not thrilled with his reply. No lynch might be worth it if we can get Dan on the case.

The bolded was prior to ZZZX's claim and was based on ZZZX not wanting to claim his role.

For the sake of convenience.

Bookitty · Post Post #4223 (isolation #98) » Fri Feb 27, 2015 5:43 am

In post 4222, ChannelDelibird wrote:Um... we all know that jmj is dead, right?

Awwww, you ruined it!

<3

Yes, I think so, Ffery. I'm going to check again to be absolutely sure.

Bookitty · Post Post #4225 (isolation #99) » Fri Feb 27, 2015 5:49 am

I am pretty sure I pasted Kise's quote with the Beloved Princess claim on behalf of ZZZX above but if you need it, I can get it again.

Here is where ZZZX claimed game and flavour. He never actually claimed Beloved Prince; he just went with what Kise said.

In post 2660, ZZZX wrote:
In post 2650, Triforce wrote:Ok. This is what ZZZX said about Ooba refusing to claim.

In post 2288, ZZZX wrote:There are 4 cases for it

- Very Important PR
- Bomb/PGO/etc
- Scum trying to avoid a fake claim that is hard to believe/is bad for them/limits them
- Scum that is in deep problems

Assuming we apply the same logic to his own behavior, I'm going to go ahead and say that it's ridiculous to think that he'd not-claim if he were a beloved princess. There is ZERO benefit to not claiming.

why the **** would I claim as a beloved prince?

also since its come to this I am from lost S1 (Walt Lloyd)

Bookitty · Fri Feb 27, 2015 5:50 am

In post 4224, ChannelDelibird wrote:Oh. Balls.

No, it's fine. I still want to know why PeregrineV would be conftown to ZZZX when you are not.

That's another problem and one that I think is actually more serious than ZZZX not paying any attention to the game.

Bookitty · Fri Feb 27, 2015 5:53 am

Just to make it clear:

In post 2647, Kise wrote:
In post 2621, Triforce wrote:Kise SHOULD know this.

Face to face? I remember you two in lylo with me and Mina or mollie. The other town voted me, then you two grinned and mislynched me and I was sad. Then Mina or mollie was like "wow singer fooled me, gj girlfriend" and I cried inside.

I will agree that singer can be pointed out when scum and she hates it, but that's what I remember from the Commune visits. I haven't played/seen an online game with either of you individually in a long time so I'm not even sure who's been posting when and where. I think the last time I played with singer was under my alt and she endgamed us as scum. Last I played with you Glork...oh dear. Cali Trilogy 3 perhaps.

I'm just gonna go ahead and speculate that ZZZX is softclaiming princess since time is of the essence. He needs to fight back with something because otherwise I'm not thrilled with his reply. No lynch might be worth it if we can get Dan on the case.

In post 2660, ZZZX wrote:
In post 2650, Triforce wrote:Ok. This is what ZZZX said about Ooba refusing to claim.

In post 2288, ZZZX wrote:There are 4 cases for it

- Very Important PR
- Bomb/PGO/etc
- Scum trying to avoid a fake claim that is hard to believe/is bad for them/limits them
- Scum that is in deep problems

Assuming we apply the same logic to his own behavior, I'm going to go ahead and say that it's ridiculous to think that he'd not-claim if he were a beloved princess. There is ZERO benefit to not claiming.

why the **** would I claim as a beloved prince?

also since its come to this I am from lost S1 (Walt Lloyd)

Kise guessed that before ZZZX revealed his game in this thread.

Bookitty · Fri Feb 27, 2015 7:36 am

The argument I've been presented with is that if someone absolutely refuses to claim, it's obviously because they are a beloved prince.

I doubt that myself, but that's what people have said.

Bookitty · Fri Feb 27, 2015 8:34 am

In post 4230, Kise wrote:Im expecting a scum flip and will defend myself as best I can
assuming I love overnight.

Can you elaborate on the bolded, please?

(Just kidding.)

Bookitty · Fri Feb 27, 2015 8:57 am

The argument is being made that it was a natural and obvious guess. I don't find it to be so. I'm interested to know if others fall into the first camp or the second, because if most people think it was natural and obvious as a first role guess for someone who won't claim, then I'm just plain wrong.

Bookitty · Fri Feb 27, 2015 11:23 am

Legen

dary.

Bookitty · Sun Mar 01, 2015 11:07 am

ZZZX: Why do you think you're still alive, please?

Do you feel you've demonstrated your great value to town during the late game?

Bookitty · Sun Mar 01, 2015 11:44 am

Also @ZZZX: Why is PeregrineV conftown to you, please?

Bookitty · Mon Mar 02, 2015 12:43 am

No, it is not everyone else who is the problem, ZZZX. It's you.

We all think PeregrineV is conftown because of CDB's role. Thus, we have CDB as conftown because CDB is the REASON we think PeregrineV is conftown.

You have never answered that. You said "I only have as conftown who I have as conftown." It's not an answer.

VOTE: ZZZX

Bookitty · Mon Mar 02, 2015 4:15 am

In post 4264, ZZZX wrote:I am done with this game. Town players are either retardedly not posting at all or just confbaising without reading my posts or responding to my logic.

intent to vote self. (and prob end the game)

-ZZZX out.

Oh, do NOT pull out the martyr card now, ZZZX.

First off, you're at L-2, so you won't be ending the game.

Secondly, you have been useless throughout the game. You assured us that you were a master of late game play but where's the evidence of this? You refuse to answer any questions, you're not keeping up with the game and you're acting like you're being ignored when you haven't SAID ANYTHING!

PeregrineV is conftown because he's conftown. Wow, that's insightful. Glad I asked.

Looking at the later game, you were:

Wrong on Triforce.
Wrong on JMJ twice.
No flip on 4burner.
No flip on BRO.
Wrong on ActionDan.
Wrong even about whether JMJ was alive or dead.

If you by some freak chance DO happen to be town, your claim of being useful in the late game has been disproven here. If you are scum though, no harm no foul. You earned a lynch and I suspect you'll get one.

Bookitty · Mon Mar 02, 2015 4:17 am

In post 4266, Kise wrote:Dude I've been bombarded with Boo saying I'm scum with you. I was the only person who tried to lynch you the next day BT for whatever reason, she isn't pullig that up.

No, I did think about that. Since if ZZZX is scum, he's not going to be the nightkill, this situation could have been predicted. Lynching him right away not only earns towncred for the person pushing it, it also removes a liability.

That's my take on it, anyway, Kise. I don't think it's the strongest point ever, especially without a ZZZX flip, but I did give it some thought.

Bookitty · Mon Mar 02, 2015 4:44 am

I apologise for misreading the timing of when you said it, Kise. I replaced in after these events and I have been checking ISOs rather than rereading the full game. I knew you had said that ZZZX was a safer lynch, but no, I was trusting your memory of your own actions as to timing rather than going back and checking on it. I know several people had said that ZZZX had to be lynched (Triforce springs to mind, actually) and I was wrong to take your word for when you had said it.

In any case, do you think we should lynch ZZZX now? Do you think he's scum?

Bookitty · Mon Mar 02, 2015 4:55 am

I think you're scum, Kise, but I'm not really that sure. In any case, I'm sure you didn't draw scum on purpose.

If I'm wrong and ZZZX is town, we will lose and it will be my fault at least partly. If I'm right, we'll continue tomorrow. I don't know which thing will happen yet. Either way, what's the point of being nasty about it?

Bookitty · Mon Mar 02, 2015 6:12 am

Congrats, scum team, and sorry town.