PIRATES v. NINJAS! Game Over!

[Primate]

HELLO EVERYONE

[Primate]

What is more likely by far is that Erg0 is, in fact, a vampire, and vampires form yet another scumgroup in the game - although that really seems to be getting crowded. But we don't know how many of each scumgroup there are. Maybe we're facing one goblin, one ninja, one vampire, one pirate and one giant man eating windmill. I don't know.

So the Vampire cult-member would claim a role that makes you suspect there are vampires in the game? Why would he do that? We're not going to get into that fun argument we had in Da Vinci again are we? I'm getting enough Deja Vu by replacing Jordan.

I think it's a godawful claim, but I don't think it hints at anything.

btb, I've read day 3, and I've read all of Erg0. I'm reading Thesp atm.

[Primate]

The reason would be if it was provided as a safeclaim by the moderator, I expect

hm. Ok, that's fair. I just saw that Guardian had same-media safeclaims, so yeah, that's perfectly plausible. Stoofer despises cults, so I don't think we're dealing with one (or at least a traditional one I suppose), but I get your point.

I think Mgm investigated Thesp N2. I don't see anything particularly info-related in the day one happenings, but given Mgm's suspicions, it seems likely Thesp was investigated then, and I don't think Mgm would have continued attacking if he got an innocent, regardless of possible suspicion about him being in other scumgroups.

Primate, I thought you only replaced into endgames.. Do you know something we don't?

heheh. To be honest, I'm not sure why I offered to replace, I was quite enjoying my hiatus for the week or so it lasted.

[Primate]

Oh. I didn't realize there was a second claimed vampire hunter role. Ok.

[Primate]

Him not vigging today is unreasonable, to my mind. Dayvigging will confirm him, one way or the other, and considering it steals our lynch, that's really the only advantage of it. There's no reason to hold it unless he wants to confirm himself later, and I don't get why he'd want that. Let's hope votes are irrelevant today.

vote Thesp

Thesp's role, if accurate, CAN win the game if we get to end game, potentially:
Thesp could day vig as soon as a day starts in a situation where scum would automatically win just by having a higher number of players; it would prevent scum from quicklynching him for an ultimate scum win, though I can't believe that thesp would be allowed to get that far by scum, unless they are reasonably sure they could get him lynched at end game or whatnot.

If true, it allows him to effectively kill himself at any point, which isn't too bad if he gets under suspicion. It's not a very good role, but it's certainly not useless.

[Primate]

Yeah. Unless we see something else in the setup that supports your theory, Mbl, he's confirmed to me.

[Primate]

PS - kill RogueBen.

PS - don't direct the vig.

Isn't that what we've been doing with me all day?

IRONY OH SNAP

I saw nothing but gentle suggestions.

[Primate]

Vote: RogueBen,

for starters, though I'm trying to ponder how realistic 3 players in each scum group is.

I think it's the most likely, assuming we're dealing with three scumgroups of equal size. I can't imagine a two man scumgroup that has to cope with large amount of crosskills and has a cop and protector designed specifically to thwart them.

Also,

Vote Rogueben

[Primate]

A little unbalanced. There's probably one scumteam of three and two teams of two or some shit like that. Tough to say, but definitely NOT three teams of three.

I think any game with four killing roles is going to look nasty if you're assuming average kills. My gut says that 3x3 is alright, with each mafia faction having a plausible chance at winning, with (at least) 3 coppish (at least) 3 doccish types. Then if the setup does go south and mafia overtake town, you have thesps role, which get the town back it's lynch, you who can kill people at night, and Fritz's role which can bring either of you back if you're both dead. And those are just the roles we know. If it's revealed that the mafia had abilities like godfatherhood or some kind of RB or something, I might be more inclined to believe that a two man mafia group is possible, but barring that, I don't see how having a two man mafia group in a 26 player game with three other killing roles who need them dead to win, and docs and cops designed specifically to stop them is remotely fair to that group.

[Primate]

In my experience, scum don't claim early on for very little reason. There's no way he could be scum from the same group, and if he was scum from a different group, I don't see him taking a chance that vampires are on the game based on a shady claim that doesn't even have any confirmation that vampires are on the game itself.

MBL, so the scum have the townie PM and a second safe role-claim?

[Primate]

PS: Kison is also scummy.

[Primate]

Means I think you're a good suspect for being scum.

[Primate]

If we're dealing with 3/3/3, we're in trouble. 4 scum are dead, and that would leave 5 scum VS 10 townies. If I'm looking at the front page correctly, all scum kills/attempts are accounted for. This means the only way scum will get offed tonight is through MBL unless something fishy happens. So if this is the scenario we're dealing with, we'll probably wind up pulling some Mafia 69ish alliances with scum.

Guardian also claimed he only had one partner. Coulda been lying, but something to keep in mind.

Ninjas are down two kills (Nights 1&2). Gobbo's are down two (Nights 1&2). If there's two, pirates are gone, if there's three, pirates'll likely bounce. And we're pretty much at the point where the biggest threat to the scumgroups are each other. The pirates, especially, need to be shooting mafia tonight, just so they can get the other groups immunity to them down.

You left the big "why" section of the paper blank, though! Do not be afraid to state thy reasons.

Mainly because you're acting in a fashion similar to how a scum would act.

Primate, why do you think Thesp is scum after he used his power?

I don't. Where did you get that idea?

[Primate]

Scum directing scum? That was my first reaction.

Scum directing scum to shoot at themselves?

[Primate]

PS: In the above statement, you know what I mean.

*'Scum directing scum to shoot at the first scum'

[Primate]

Oh. Ok. Well, that wasn't what I meant.

Not that I'm entirely sure that a direction that involves the scum missing a kill and the identity of a scum becoming known information to someone who has absolutely no quails about giving them up is what I'd call an anti-town maneuver.

PS: I just noticed that MBL was killed by both groups N1, which reflects a little worse on my idea that the scum are going to be killing each other tonight.

Anyway, I won't vote Thesp or MBL today. I can see my way towards lynching Rogueben if I'm convinced enough.

Who do you thinks scummy then?

[Primate]

Maybe he fake claimed so people like you would be more willing to defend him.

Arguing in favour of or against him?

PS:

Who do you think's scummy then?

*bump*

[Primate]

Kison, who's the scum?

I say this because you seem to have been avoiding making proclamations o' that variety despite commenting on all manner of other things.

[Primate]

The case against you, RB, as far as I can see it, is that you appear to be putting very little thought into the game, and instead consistently going along with whatever a number of other people happen to be saying. You're doing just enough to not get prodded, without doing anything that might help the town find scum.

Also the fact that Shea was scummy as hell.

@Rogueben: So you're comfortable enough regarding setup speculation to talk about scumgroup composition but not comfortable enough to talk about the specific roles in the game?

@Kison: So the reason you find UA the scummiest person in the game atm is solely because he was apart from you on one issue? Because your stance was so overwhelmingly pro-town that anyone who takes the opposite stance is anti-town now, yes?

Also.

Now that's just plain wrong. I was very vocal about why Erg0 was likely to be scum(check my first post from yesterday), and why I was skeptical of Thesp's claim. That's not avoiding anything.

Ergo had just been fingered by someone as guaranteed scum. Now, you supported his lynch, but that was a lynch that, if it had gone sour and he come up town, you could have absolved yourself of all responsibility for it by just say "Hm, guess he lied then". You didn't bother going into how scummy he was by means of backing this up at all, instead you just rode Guardians message. And you were 'very vocal' about it for

one post

before you completely dropped it and started not doing very much again, so I think it's telling that this was one of the big two suspicions you picked out as an example of you doing something.

I switched because I think mikeburnfire needs some attention, as I think he's scum, too.

2/3 of Kison, MBF, Rogueben. Betcha.

[Primate]

Claus - Senator Joseph McCarthy (Communist Finder) - filled full of musketballs Night 4

Communist Finder? Is this some sort of other faction or just a cruel Stoofer joke?

[Primate]

Sorry, I've been far more absent than I promised myself I'd be, I'll post properly in a bit. FWIW I'm not Rogueben's mason buddy playing some cunning gambit. I think Rogueben's lying, but I also don't think scum would claim mason buddies with their scumbuddy regardless of anything, so really it just depends on whether he sees the light about outing his buddy (the good play).

[Primate]

I think that's too many scum. Town is playing too good a game to be at LyLo. Something in our assumptions is wrong here.

There are four nightkilling groups that have been repeatedly taking slices out of the town instead of each other.

I'm not a fan of mass claiming at this point. The

last

thing we need is for a couple more semi-power roles that are a threat to the scum to out themselves and make the scum decide not to finally take a shot at one another tonight.

[Primate]

Primate (replaced JordanA24)

Notably, Mgm asks him Day 1:

You've slipped up. You're a ninja, aren't you?

On something relatively minor. I think this is actually the info he's dropping. I think it's worth exploring.

Speaking as an observer, I think Mgm was sufficiently into the pirate vs ninja speculation to make a point like that, and it naturally lead off from something that ergo said. I don't think Mgm's point is very good at all, but I don't think that it's a hint disguised as a bad argument, I just think it's a bad argument. And that's aside from the fact he never said another thing against Jordan all game past that argument. Also, generally if people are leaving a cop breadcrumb trail, they tend to make sure to do it every day, not just leaving some of their results behind, a bunch of things could have happened, like him targetting a dead man or whatever, but he never left anything day 2, which I would have expected him to do day 2 if he was in the habit of that.

I'd also say that the chances of Mgm investigating Jordan in a game with so many good players are minimal, and I think he'd make it less open to interpretation if he did decide to drop hints like that, but both of those things are wifom.

[Primate]

I'm leaning towards one of UA or Primate myself. I didn't like a lot of what Primate was pushing yesterday, and his sudden radio silence after being asked some follow-up questions felt like a cheap out card to play.

Yeah, I'm sorry about my lurking. Slipping back into bad habits. I'll make my case against you now.

I'm against the mass-claim because we have two confirmed innocents in the game, one in the form of the pirate protector, and the other in the form of the vanilla townie. We out them, and regardless of how small the game is, the scum

will

kill them instead of each other. If we run up the townie and the PP today, then I'll be in favour of a mass claim of the remaining people, but I just don't think the benefit outweighs the cost at this point.

[Primate]

Thesp, did you read the first bit of that post where I said I was, at present (as in literally, now), making a case against Kison? Does that answer your questions?

[Primate]

I don't feel comfortable doing Pirate/Ninja, but it'd be

Town

cicero
ooba
Thesp

Neutral

The Fonz
Lawrencelot
Cogito Ergo Sum

Scummy

Kison
UltimaAvalon

A few things regarding that, though. Firstly is that if I had to pick people out of the two neutrals, it'd probably be Lawrence and C.E.S, though I'd have to do a lot of reading there and I'd still only pick those two because I think that Fonz has been the towniest. There's also something else which I don't want to talk about at the minute, but that shouldn't influence any of the questions you might want to ask me.

[Primate]

FYI I am on/off doing the kison case, but I haven't stopped yet.

[Primate]

plzhuryi m telbming infear

Interesting you attribute machismo to your ability to avoid being lynched over your ability to find scum.

[Primate]

PRIMATES BIG KISON POST.

Skipping #6, #59 and #69 cause they're random phase things.

In #152, Kison supports the Iammars wagon whilst simultaneously saying he thinks the case against him is weak. Votes Gorrad for something that he could have done without actually saying whether he believes that Gorrad did it. And then in #155, he weasels out of committing to a point of view regarding Gorrad, repeats that whilst what Gorrad did could have been done by a townie, the fact it was he thinks it is an anti-town act means that he deserves to be voted, regardless of what motivations are behind it In #237 he calls the iammars wagon 'still a joke', despite calling it viable earlier in #152. In #516, he sarcastically makes a comment against Thesp for trying to make him think about things. Then says he found Thesp mildly scummy for refusing to elaborate his points, and honestly the only time I've seen anything like that is in the point Thesp was quoted as earlier in this post, and certainly wasn't a tendency. In #544, Says he supports the Sirt and Kalei wagons, then goes and votes a habitual lurker for lurking. In #585, he spends two paragraphs debunking the claimed masons as non-confirmed despite the fact they probably aren't lying, then makes snide comments against the vig and a townie who isn't even there. #628 is lazy, with him spending a large amount of words pushing previous questions that you didn't answer, going 'massclaims are bad mk' and prodding at lurkers before talking about theory. In #849, he continues to ask little questions to lurkers before putting his vote on guardian with a cop-out reason 'I know guardianscum and he acts like

this

', as the eighth vote on Guardian. Shows absolutely no commitment to the wagon bar his vote. #990: Moves onto Rossowagon to prevent a mislynch. Doesn't post all of day 2, when guardianscum is being lynched. #1219, he debunks the lynch preventer as not necessarily confirmed then says he unconditionally believes the dead scum (taking an aside from things that actually happened for a second to state an opinion, I don't think he would have been anywhere near as certain regarding trusting the word of a dead scum if he didn't

know

Guardian was telling the truth and that there was a scum on the other end of the lynch he was arguing for), especially considering he doubted everything else that guardian said. in #1229, Ergo makes a point about how Kisons vote on Guardian looked like bussing and kison responds not by actually refuting the point, instead effectively complaining about his options under the circumstances, saying whatever he did he could look like scum. In #1238 he bitches about lurkers, and spends a paragraph concluding that Thesp could either be town or scum before, in his next post, deciding that because the ability is strictly worse than vanilla (it isn't) he's going to vote Thesp. In #1241 he admits there is an upside but doesn't remove his vote. #1260 is just words with nothing behind it, as are #1343, #1394 and #1488. In #1387 he says that regardless of whether thesp has the daykilling ability or not, he isn't confirmed. In #1563, he calls himself 'very vocal' about the Ergo lynch, despite making exactly one post in favour, he also says that he wants to see more out of Rogueben, but doesn't push it beyond this, despite earlier in the game pressuring other lurkers with votes and questioning (I think this is likely a fear of looking bandwagonny, considering those other lurkers had little pressure on them at the point he was looking at them, and Rogueben had quite a bit. With Rogueben he didn't mention it at all until I specifically asked him who he felt scummy). He also attacks UA based on the fact that he did not support Thesps testing, without regard to whether he thinks this is a scummy move or what the motivations behind it might be. In #1564, he partakes in what is the only type of legitimately scummy overdefensiveness there is, which is checking your own arguments for weaknesses then beating imagined questioners to the punch by answering their queries before they ask them. In #1596, he makes the Thesp testing out to be this complex issue (it wasn't), then makes a threatening comment against me, which I'm perfectly happy calling an OMGUS attack, because I don't see him using that tone unless he was beginning to decide to attack me, and up until that point he hadn't put forward any kind of judgement on me at all. In #1662, he stops lurking, comes into the thread then complains about lurkers. In #1683, he posts a list of possibilities without saying how likely each are or which he thinks is true, then proceeds to take the easy (though admittedly right) path of getting Rogueben to out his partner, though he doesn't actually say he wants Rogueben to out his partner, he says

"If Rogueben refuses to name someone before the deadlines with a strong voice demanding it, he should be lynched and I will gladly pile my vote on"

And that's pretty much it, bar his most recent couple of posts. Basically, if you look at the lengths Kison has gone, under every circumstance, to pick the soft, unassailable choice, the one he knows he probably won't be attacked for, then it's really beyond coincidence. The guardian tie would pretty much have to mean he's a goblin though. I really recommend just doing a 'view by user' search on him.

So massclaim will probably help them avoid the townies and hit the other scum

If you think this, you haven't though about the ramifications of a mass claim enough. Look at the roles we know to be in the game and apply them to the playerlist and you'll see what I mean.

[Primate]

Also,

Vote Kison

[Primate]

Ah. `

I just got back from holiday.

I don't see what harm mass claim can do with the game state the way it is, and it should out some scums.

[Primate]

I think that's a matter of points of view and circumstance.

Do you know what I mean?

[Primate]

Actually, even in abstract. Surely the best play is for us to mass claim then for us to no-lynch, because under those circumstances is a bad idea for them to be aimed at the town as opposed to each other because they can't take advantage of that? All it's going to do is make them be more informed when they try and kill each other?

If I'm wrong, feel free to say.

[Primate]

You reckon only the one person's going to claim pirate protector?

[Primate]

From my seat, I have a four in five chance of lynching scum. But this win condition looks totally fucked up. If town kills any scum they lose, according to Fonz. Is town just stuck choosing which one of you scummy factions wins?!

My plan atm is pretty much to hope all you guys kill each other and that me or ooba are left standing at the end of the game by sheer luck. Honestly I've kind of written this game off.

[17] All bad guys (scum) have one-shot immunity against any scum group.

In other words, for a scum cross-kill to occur, a bad guy must be targeted twice by the same scum group.

If a kill fails for that reason, the targeting scum group will be told that that was why their kill failed.

Bump. I'm pretty sure C.E.S is right regarding crosskills.

[Primate]

Heheh, kind of saw this coming, but it's funny all the same. You look silly.

<- Cutler Beckett.

[Primate]

vote no lynch

[Primate]

vote no lynch

[Primate]

Stoof took your kill, eh?

[Primate]

Oh, it's not me, I just think it's funny.

[Primate]

huh. ITT town majority. ^5

Vote Lawrencelot

mainly because he claims he's a pirate protector.

I can make a big case against him covering everything if you think it's a decision, but, even hypothetically, he's the guy who hasn't commented on or even mentioned any of the ninja all game.

[Primate]

One is connected, the other isn't. It's your call there.

And if I lose the game based on a smart ass comment Mgm made in the early game, then I won't be happy.

[Primate]

arfghhhhhh

[Primate]

GJ ninja

[Primate]

*sigh*

Fonz, why did you do that? It was blatantly my best play to kill you, and if you had revealed you lost your protection, there's no way I would have done that.

And I feel completely vindicated in that I was right about Mgm not investigating me.

Oh well, town played well, only losing it a bit at the end.

[Primate]

Fwiw, I probably would have gone for a draw with you, but not without being in a situation where I had the drop on you.

[Primate]

With this many scumkills, and the inability to crosskill, scum can retain parity with the town though.

I think the lack of crosskill rule made it pretty much guaranteed the game would end in a prisoners dilemma, and I'd be interested to know why stoof thought that was a good idea.

[Primate]

Also, though, I thoroughly enjoyed this game, and it's probably the only game ever where I've been playing as scum and haven't absolutely hated it.

[Primate]

I did trust you. Didn't trust you enough to let you go running around with protection from my kills, especially when there was absolutely no downside to attempting to kill you and you wouldn't know if I did or not regardless.

[Primate]

I would have dealt with you with you one down, not doing so would have been pretty dickish.