Cheese Thief | Game 1 Over
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DragonEater70 He/HimJack of All TradesHe/Him
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DragonEater70 He/HimJack of All TradesHe/Him
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So, this is my first time playing this, so I don't actually know what is the optimal strategy, but I think there are certain things to keep in mind:- There's only one day phase, so we're probably going to all have to claim everything before the end of the day.
- The Cheese Thief is probably going to claim falsely, in order to hide their identity. And the follower is probably also going to fake claim in order to cover for the Cheese thief.
- Therefore, if we can force the cheese thief to claim the true hour which they woke up, we'll have somewhat of an easier time (compared to if we let them claim whatever they want).
- Don't claim info yet. Start by a popcorn massclaim of hours.
- if you saw the cheese thief, just claim that you saw them and at what time.
- if you woke up alone, claim the real time you woke up. Don't CC others who claim your time, just claim time when it's your turn.
- if you woke up with another person who isn't the cheese thief (or with 2 other people), one of you should claim the real time you woke up, and the others should claim fake times that have not yet been taken by others. Ex: If A, B and D all woke up at 1 AM, and C woke up at 2 AM, so the claim could go like this:
A: I woke up at 1 AM. B: I woke up at 2 AM. C: I woke up at 2 AM. D: I woke up at 4 AM.
Or, like this:
A: I woke up at 3 AM. B: I woke up at 1 AM. C: I woke up at 2 AM. D: I woke up at 5 AM.
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DragonEater70 He/HimJack of All TradesHe/Him
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Good thinking because I was planning to suggest tying between the cheese thief and the suspected follower.In post 13, camelCasedSnivy wrote: tying probably isnt a good idea since the follower can break the tie before voting for day end-
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DragonEater70 He/HimJack of All TradesHe/Him
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Let me explain why the Cheese Thief is likely to fake claim:In post 16, NDMath wrote: Does day not end if we have a majority vote on somebody? That seems weird to me.
@DragonEater
I don't think lying about wake up time is as likely as you think it is, since if cheese thief or follower lie about their wake up time & somebody checked their die that just forces them into an unneccesary 1v1.
Let's say theoretically that the cheese thief woke up at 1 AM, one player woke at 2, one player woke at 3, two players woke at 4, and one woke at 5.
They all claim the time truthfully, then there's guaranteed to be a 1v1 between cheese thief and the person who woke at 2.
If TWO people wake at 2 instead (and Cheese Thief truthfully claims being the only one to wake up at 1), then Cheese Thief is caught and it's game over for them immediately.
So the Cheese Thief cannot truthfully claim UNLESS they have a partner who's lying for them, or if they are feeling really lucky.-
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DragonEater70 He/HimJack of All TradesHe/Him
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I would like to wait for everyone to check in before we start massclaim, but currently I feel NDMath should be the first to claim - though I can only elaborate on that after massclaim.-
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DragonEater70 He/HimJack of All TradesHe/Him
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DragonEater70 He/HimJack of All TradesHe/Him
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Wait so is one of you two fakeclaiming 6 AM?
Thoughts I had from people's posting before massclaim:
Spoiler:
(you don't actually have to read, I'm just posting this for fun)-
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DragonEater70 He/HimJack of All TradesHe/Him
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DragonEater70 He/HimJack of All TradesHe/Him
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I kinda typed this whole post casing Math and then decided to not post it until I see how people react to previous stuff, and I think Math's reaction is really weird here.
But I just tried to look at it from his POV and it kinda makes sense?
Hmm
Let me think about it before I post my full thoughts.-
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DragonEater70 He/HimJack of All TradesHe/Him
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Math 2 quick questions:
1. Why did you call me a follower before massclaim?
2. Do you realize there's a follower so I don't have to be a cheese thief, since both of the other pairs according to your POV could be thief + follower?
pedit: I will snivy, dw
and yeah, SG (sorry if you hate this) ain't confirmed-
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DragonEater70 He/HimJack of All TradesHe/Him
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DragonEater70 He/HimJack of All TradesHe/Him
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This is my "Full Thoughts" post. I will include the entire case I made on Math in the spoiler below, then I can delve into what I currently think.
Spoiler: case I was alluding to in post #38
First, Snivy is very observant as he correctly deduced that he and I woke up at the same time! Just kidding (or am i?). But yeah, I did wake up with somebody else (Mallow, as I don't see a point hiding it now).
Furthermore, I kinda TR Skygazer's thinking that they are confirmed town despite not being confirmed. I will say though that they aren't even confirmed not Cheese Thief, because they can be the Thief with Silverclaw as the Follower. But since I TR both of them (independently of each other), I think it's an unlikely scenario (but not impossible).
So that leaves Mallow, Snivy, and Math.
Mallow is, by claim which no one CC'd yet, clear of being Cheese Thief. They could still be a follower.
Could Snivy be Math's follower? Maybe - I didn't actually think of this possibility. It's an interesting one.
Could Math be Snivy's follower? Probably not. I find it highly unlikely that the follower just popcorns the CT and forces them to fakeclaim early when they might get CC'd.
Could Mallow be Math's follower? Yes, and that's my current solve. Mallow's posting feels like follower posting, and Math's posting feels like CT posting. If I'm right, I expect Mallow to start shading me after this post and to (falsely) claim that Math is confirmed not CT to them.
Okay so what about Snivy as Math's follower again? Ugh, I guess it's possible. I don't really have a good argument for or against it. If you guys have an argument either way, I will be happy to hear it.
Edit: I guess the last 2 posts by Mallow and Snivy actually confused me a bit on which one of them could be the follower.
Oh, I forgot Mallow could be Snivy's follower. Hmmmmmmm, I'll get back to you about that.-
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DragonEater70 He/HimJack of All TradesHe/Him
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btw @Skygazer I love your ever changing signature since you became Replacement Listmod.-
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DragonEater70 He/HimJack of All TradesHe/Him
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Wow. Appreciated!In post 54, Skygazer wrote:
updated it again just for youIn post 52, DragonEater70 wrote: btw @Skygazer I love your ever changing signature since you became Replacement Listmod.-
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In post 60, camelCasedSnivy wrote: i am staring as hard as i can just tell me
Just read this post it's not that hard:In post 61, camelCasedSnivy wrote:
just tell me what time you woke up at its not that hardIn post 58, DragonEater70 wrote:
Read my claim again.In post 53, camelCasedSnivy wrote: the 1am time
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huhIn post 65, camelCasedSnivy wrote: whatever i woke alone and tracked mallow to 3 am im done
Why did you wait for me to claim before saying that?
But anyway from your POV Math is confirmed Cheese Thief unless SilverSky is actually best scum team that ever scummed in the Mish Mash forums.-
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I admit that I fucked up there, I actually realized I should've asked you to claim last but it was too late.In post 63, NDMath wrote: (mechanically you want people you know the times of to claim later, so you acting like you had a peak on me and then asking me to claim first set off alarms there).-
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@Math basically this is my first time playing this and I am more or less figuring out the strategy as I go along. So yeah you are 100% correct that people you know when they woke up should claim later, that's also part of my suspicion of Mallo popcorning me.In post 71, DragonEater70 wrote: I admit that I fucked up there, I actually realized I should've asked you to claim last but it was too late.-
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I kinda think Math has the right idea here.
Which would make the solve Thief!Snivy + Follower!Mallow
VOTE: Snivy-
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As much as I think it would be rad if Snivy and Math were theatering and Math was the thief, I felt Math's reactions to my pushes were too organic so I don't think that's the case.
pedit: LOL Snivy's omgus is very telling.-
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K I think I should head to bed now, good night and please don't steal the cheese again.-
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Actually this is wrong
If Skygazer were the Cheese thief with only their follower unclaimed, it would make perfect sense for them to choose an unoccupied slot, knowing that the follower would back them up. That's the same logic behind thief!snivy claiming 4 AM and popping mallow.
However the fact that you peeked at Silver beforehand does make it unlikelier.
Anyway it's good we have eliminated both mallow and Silverclaw as Cheese Thiefs completely, so we're never voting any of them. I am obviously not voting myself and Mallow can vouch for me not being Thief (though mallow could be lying for me).
So it's skygazer, snivy and math (FMPOV).
Skygazer I earlier dismissed as townie but I'll admit calling themself a cleared sleepyhead while being cheese thief is definitely not beyond their capabilities (I think).
Snivy I think it makes perfect sense to be the thief.
Math I thought made perfect sense to be the thief, but his reactions felt like they came from a place of genuinely believing what he said.
Also I am 99% sure Math and Snivy are not ever aligned, based on interactions.-
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I also don't love it.
Do you think him bringing up you and Skygazer as a possible team is Sleepy or Thiefy?-
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Also I just realized I've been referring to both mallow and Math as "he" without any evidence that this is the correct pronoun for either of them, so sorry about that.
What's your pronouns?-
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lol I was having doubts on you being Cheese Thief but mallow is literally my number 1 candidate for follower out of everyone regardless of who's the Cheese Thief.In post 117, camelCasedSnivy wrote: i say, if we end up doing my plan, DE and mallow can vote me, skygazer and silverclaw can vote ndmath, then we just have to guess who isn't
the follower, and i don't think mallow is the follower tbh, so mallow can vote to end day last
Silverclaw should vote last.-
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whatIn post 125, camelCasedSnivy wrote: well it doesn't matter who thinks who its just that i think you're the follower so you cant pivot over onto me from nd
how did you reach this conclusion when I was the main person pushng the one you are now pushing?-
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Okay something isn't adding up here.
Maybe I just have a soft spot for Snivy, but I'm having a hard time Thief-reading him when he's proposing a breaking strategy that would help us defeat him if he's indeed the Cheese Thief. I probably do have a soft spot for him but nvm about that.
Also, my initial Thief-read on Math broke down after I realized that everything Math says makes sense from their perspective, and even though I disagree with their conclusions, the are not Thief-indicative as much as they are playstyle-indicative. I mean, there's a guy I played mafia with who would constantly lose 1v1's as town simply because his tone was panicky, even though he was town. So for Math, the fact they sounded panicky earlier is not necessarily scum indicative but again more playstyle/personality indicative.
Another part of my thief-read on Math was lack of solving, but they've demonstrated excellent solving in the past few pages.
So, "what the heck is going on?", you may be asking. "Is DE70 townreading both Thief candidates? Is he saying there's no thief?"
Well, not exactly. You understand, I already mentioned this but was ignored. So I hate to break it to you guys, but Skygazer is NOT confirmed to be not the Cheese Thief (and neither am I).
Theoretically, Skygazer could've stolen the cheese at 1 AM, then picked Silverclaw as follower (Silverclaw really did wake up at 6 AM), and then Skygazer fluked and claimed the same time that Silverclaw woke up.
Actually, I just realized that this explains why Silverclaw truclaimed. Because he did wake up by himself, and per the plan people who woke up alone should trueclaim (but he was supposed to fake claim). Only later did he realize he needs to provide cover for Skygazer, so claimed he had somehow forgotten it.-
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Are you kidding me?In post 128, camelCasedSnivy wrote:
simpleIn post 126, DragonEater70 wrote: how did you reach this conclusion when I was the main person pushng the one you are now pushing?
the follower is the loudest so they can divert the attention off of the thief
First, I'm always loud:
app.php/activity_overview/91344?sort_ty ... rt_order=d
app.php/activity_overview/90539?sort_ty ... rt_order=d
app.php/activity_overview/90611?sort_ty ... rt_order=d (This is the first Weird Dreams Mafia, in which I was town)
Second, the "noise" that I've been making is called solving. If I wanted to draw attention off the Thief I would deliberately lie and make myself confirmed thief.-
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oh, I could totally see why you think that furthers your theory of me being Math's follower. It makes perfect sense fypov
Let's see what Math and mallow say.-
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For this to happen you'd have to put faith in me because I'm supposedly Math's follower, mallow is supposedly yours, and Silver is supposedly Sky's, and I'm not letting either of mallow or Silver vote last. And if I'm being 100% honest I'd rather just solve it based on dayplay, and based on Dayplay I think it's Skygazer. She was just sitting on her laurels, knowing she's "confirmed", and didn't try to solve at all. Also when I asked Silver if he thinks you are thief or not, I really didn't like his answer.In post 133, camelCasedSnivy wrote: its the same thing where we just have to decide who isn't a follower but whoever votes who doesn't really matter because the follower can pivot from a non-thief-
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I was actually thinking that 151 is the case and was planning to ask the mod about that.
While it's true that we can do that and it would be an auto-win, I rather lose playing a fair game than win by "cheating". Like I feel if we did that strategy then we basically admit that we can't even find two cheese thief candidates out of six people.
You can scumread me for this all you want, I don't really care.
I think a tie vote betweenStarSky and Snivy wins the game.-
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I literally said that I don't want to gamebreak because it will feel lameIn post 154, Skygazer wrote: DE70 must be scum then lol. Trying to still push me after I advocated for an absolutely gamebreaking strat is also kinda damning.
if you all are so tryhard so as to go for the gamebreak start, go for it. I will vote accordingly.-
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No but at this stage all my suspects advocated for autoloss so I'm kinda out of suspects.-
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That made me genuinely laugh, thanks.In post 163, Silverclaw wrote: Feel free to propose it lmao, but if I wanted to break a game over my knees I'd be building more Pathfinder characters right now
Sky, I get your frustration. I think it's probably not you, but I know it's not me, mallow or Silverclaw and I also don't think it's Math. So I'm proposing you as a "safe" bet.
If it's so annoying to you I can propose math/snivy instead.-
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Sky, the only thing making me suspicious of you is the fact that you are begging us to ignore the 1 / 54 chance you are the thief.
I literally wouldn't pay attention to it but when you insist that we ignore it, it's kinda suspicious ngl.-
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Subject: large normal 243: lindOVER
Amazing quote nglIn post 4512, Skygazer wrote: and i conflated inflated with conflated-
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My preference would be to have each person just vote whomever they think is maf, and most probably either 1 or 2 people will be voted but I won't be upset if 3 people will be voted as long as it's not motivated by an attempt to gamebreak but simply because opinions are split.In post 194, Skygazer wrote: if we want fun and suspense we could go for one person
honestly going between ND and cCS seems like an easy win tho-
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Okay you know what, screw this
I think my original gut vibe was probably correct
It's probably math+mallow as sidekick
VOTE: Math-
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But it's not even a gut read
It was a very well thought out read
Whatever-
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same
partlyIn post 201, Silverclaw wrote: Is it just because neither of them seem too interested in responding?-
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DragonEater70 He/HimJack of All TradesHe/Him
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DragonEater70 He/HimJack of All TradesHe/Him
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DragonEater70 He/HimJack of All TradesHe/Him
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DragonEater70 He/HimJack of All TradesHe/Him
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I agree
I wish I had meta on Silverclaw because his posts are kinda sleepy but could also come from follower and meta would help me figure out which one it is.
Ugh sure let's just vote Snivy then.
VOTE: Snivy.-
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DragonEater70 He/HimJack of All TradesHe/Him
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I mentioned it a bunch of times I think?In post 218, camelCasedSnivy wrote: i know its statistically more likely that nd is thief but damn de didnt even mention how mallow could STILL be a follower but not just to me.-
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DragonEater70 He/HimJack of All TradesHe/Him
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yeahIn post 219, Silverclaw wrote: That's because mallow mentioned Math but decided to not even think about mentioning you-
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DragonEater70 He/HimJack of All TradesHe/Him
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