Micro 1018: The King's New Robes | Game Over

[ActionDan]

I think we should claim if we received a suit.

(I am also thinking about the repercussions of a massclaim)

[ActionDan]

Sorry friends, have been busy.

I'll catch up in a bit but it seems from a brief skim we are Massclaiming.

No suit / VT

[ActionDan]

Town reading Gamma Faria, and slightly pink panther because that attempt to review posting styles of gamma/faira separately is a townish effort, if otherwise a bit mental.

Scum reading both Rock hopper / VFP, and the reasons for that roughly line up with Gamma/Faria's own.

My 2 cents about the discord stuff is that between 12 am - 1:30 am which is the timestamps I have for Salsabil --> gamma's posts is enough time to both be busy and discuss things. Aside from that I don't like relying on angle-shooty play and it's not indicative of anything anyway. I can see how ArcAngel could have got the notion they were scum as the posts are consecutive.

I am not following the concerns about the timing of rockhopper's suit claim from both enchant and Pink panther

VOTE: VFP

[ActionDan]

So... there's only 1 mystic claim and rock hopper claimed a seamstress suit.

Mechanics for the win? Or is NM trolling harder than normal

[ActionDan]

Basically rock hopper is scum or a VT claim is lying

[ActionDan]

reading up

[ActionDan]

That was a read.

To answer your question in 177 Faria, putting aside the mechanics of the moment, my suspicions were equally split between rockhopper/VFP, for their comments made in 74 and 90, respectively.

Now for the present. Taking everything at face value, 182 is correct (and by extension 183). Since then Rock retracted and NM has claimed to be a 2nd oracle.

looking at 190, I may have suggested a VT is lying but I was really being pedantic, because usually I'm under the working assumption that town

don't

lie. It's hard to fault PP from incorporating that tenant into their mechanics argument and then reaching the obvious conclusion. Speaking of lying; Rockhopper what were you hoping to gain from yours (how would this confuse scum)? If we are in the Actress/Seamstress/2 oracle world, which it appears we are, there's going to be a seamstress vulnerable to briding, and a fake suit claim could solve that problem.

198 is painful to read.

Faria, why should Enchant vote NM and vise-versa? Where exactly is that coming from?

223; 227; Rockhopper; Enchant; where is this notion of a 3rd oracle coming from? Is there any reason to assume some other person is lying?

[ActionDan]

Blink once and there's a quick-elim.

I'm vibing with Hop's posting;

although why is your partner still under the impression the bride confirmed your slot. Did you not reply to them in discord

?

I'm more concerned that Arc thought NM had to be lying in that position only due NM's refusal to name his N0 target, than of Arc lying originally even though as PP has said, there is scum advantage to that after the bride was used. The progression from 258 to 263 to 272 feels slightly off since the original reason for going after NM changes from a belief in the certainty NM was lying to a high chance he was. If scum, the certainty in thinking NM isn't mystic could come from an actress that got a VT suit off him.

All that said,

VOTE: VFP

Terrible NM vote, and equally bad posting today. I also don't believe he's that ignorant of the setup in general.

[ActionDan]

I think the point being made is that if there's no reason to choose the other oracle claim because no matter what on D2 you're not getting anything out of it, regardless of setup (on D1 different story). If you target a VT claim, at least there is the potential for a seamstress to be revealed in the actress/seamstress world.

One more point about the setup that both you and rockhopper seem to believe is that a lone seamstress would suit a townie, and at least in rockhoppers case, this idea seems to be coloring rockhopper's reads. There is a large downside to this. It allows town to determine much more precisely the amount of mystics in the setup. That is scum's one advantage and I highly doubt they'd give it up so easily.

[ActionDan]

Can we please assume NM is town, as otherwise this game is as good as won

[ActionDan]

This game feels scuffed already

[ActionDan]

She could flip as any role. If she's town, that will be that, if she's scum someone is going to die. This isn't hard.

[ActionDan]

I was addressing VFP's hypothetical question. I am currently voting them. As for your elimination, I am basically indifferent, as you have a fair amount of scum equity, but I wouldn't have wanted it to be like this.

[ActionDan]

400 makes {VFP, Arc} unlikely (and their interactions early D1).
That leaves ActionDan.

Ignoring the fact Arc was at 2 out of the 5 votes required at that point, making the threat of hammering moot, elaborate on how you reached this POE conclusion.

[ActionDan]

Preferably I'd like VFP. Hammer is tempting.

[ActionDan]

{AD, VFP}
{AD, Arc}
{AD, Enchant}

{VFP, Arc}

{VFP, Enchant}

I will assume this is what you mean. The advantage is 3 cases to 2 cases. That is a difference, but not a major one. Do you have no thoughts on either of our content to pair with this?

[ActionDan]

Sorry guys I've been busy over the last couple days, and will also be busy tonight. Will do a reread tomorrow or late tonight if I'm not exhausted.

[ActionDan]

I'll be honest, at a certain point, I basically lost interest in this game.

The last notable thing I remember is PP saying they were thinking of a (VFP/Enchant} team. Completely possible. VFP could be scum with anyone.

[ActionDan]

Which probably leads to town arc which then leaves
Enchant/VFP
Enchant/Rock
Rock/VFP

Does rock make that claim without intent for one partner to claim mystic? Not sure if Rock/VFP makes sense unless they didn’t bother to think about the setup/their claims

Enchant/Rock makes sense associative wise from Rock's iso. pure omgus pushing on my slot without any good reason to this point, pushing Dan, has VFP in pool
don't see thoughts i like trying to sort the mystics from rock- literally doesn't mention anything on Enchant except assuming they're conf.town is stated indirectly once

Dan what are your thoughts on my thoughtspews/any sound like they make sense?

-Hop

These are the only two posts I could muster any care for.

To the first: No idea. I don't think the claim made any sense from a town perspective, and I tend to not care about rationalizing it from a scum perspective, as you get into WIFOM territory. It could be a seamstress trying to get some equity for not being brided. It could be just some cheeky play with inextricable lines of thought behind it

For the second: I broadly agree, though the argument goes more against rockhopper. I tend to analyze associatives by looking less at scum's posts towards your person of interest than of their posts concerning flipped scum. Considering Arc's posts towards rockhopper if rock flipped scum I'd definitely eliminate enchant over arc if it comes to that (but I'd eliminate VFP before either)

[ActionDan]

I'll be honest, at a certain point, I basically lost interest in this game.

The last notable thing I remember is PP saying they were thinking of a (VFP/Enchant} team. Completely possible. VFP could be scum with anyone.

Have you not been reading our posts? We’re not currently sr VFP. I still don’t even understand T3’s and your case against him?

Why? Can someone please tell me why is he scum?

You TR him, I have a different impression from Hop that at least he doesn't TR VFP.

In any case I think VFP is scum for the following:

the last line of post 90;
251/268; the vote on NM was just bad.
Continuously posting about how he fails to understand the most rudimentary aspects of the setup, but still voted based on false assumptions (see the NM vote and rational for it).
337 is awkward considering I'm voting him and have always expressed a scum read on him at that point.
His posts in general do nothing in the way of scumhunting.

[ActionDan]

anyway eliminating in Rock/VFP will always get 1 scum decent chance of 2, so as long as that happens I'm ok, but I do prefer VFP > Rock by a fair margin.

[ActionDan]

Do you have thoughts on VFP T3?

[ActionDan]

Ok good enough for me

VOTE: Rockhopper

[ActionDan]

Do you have thoughts on VFP T3?

Elim him then you and we likely win.

So you're just gonna throw?

[ActionDan]

and?

[ActionDan]

That just means one of dwlee/arc is scum with VFP

[ActionDan]

VOTE: VFP

[ActionDan]

It would mean PP has to be scum.

Which is unlikely.

[ActionDan]

But dumbtelling one's way to victory seems to be working.

[ActionDan]

would you? I sorta doubt that since it'd be a bad look before PP had the chance to post.

[ActionDan]

Who's scum with me, Dan?

Don't know. I'd have liked to decide that the next day at my leisure but I guess I'll have to put in the grunt work today since T3 does not seem to know what he's doing.

[ActionDan]

I'm enjoying your weaseling.

Yes, realistically, there are two candidates, and I have given it thought. I only cordially answered your question that I don't know the answer.

Arc has not posted, but it is not important that she does were Dwlee to hammer because she's pretty locked with him in a 1v1. It is important PP posts because their thoughts matter more.

[ActionDan]

T3 demanded a hammer yesterday.

I hammered after ascertaining his proclivities towards who he'd want eliminated the next day.

Look at where I wound up in his estimation.

[ActionDan]

And to me, I'm debating whether this is simply an attempt to push a wholesale fallacy or a poor distancing play.

[ActionDan]

If this sounds patronizing, it's because it is:

Town's thoughts, or people who are perceived to be town, matter a lot more than scum's in this scenario because they are going to likely be the deciders of who gets eliminated or not. T3's opinions, sadly, matter a whole lot more than anything Arc could say now. I know I just wondered if you slipped in a distancing attempt, but I'm not really treating anything you say as more than WIFOM, and don't think there's much scumhunting to be gleaned from it.

Same to a lesser degree can be said for both Dwlee and Arc. There is a pretense to uphold, and a choice to be made between you and me, but the alignment relative content is going to be less potent. You can argue that point, but that's my feeling on the matter from experience.

[ActionDan]

For anyone that has a serious interest in eliminating scum between me and VFP, I offer 531.

There is also the option of first eliminating in Dwlee/Arc. Success there just wins immediately too.

[ActionDan]

Because if T3 continues to obstinately vote for me, the idea of trying to eliminate the 2nd scum becomes more appealing. Obviously I'd want to eliminate you if I can.

[ActionDan]

There's not much more I can do to "get you".

Besides counter these inane posts you constantly spout.

[ActionDan]

Mate, I have 10 years of experience on you.

[ActionDan]

So, are you just outing yourself here or what?

[ActionDan]

From how today is going you're not about to eliminate scum.

That said Arc's 593 is basically a scum claim so you can elimminate VFP -> Arc and the game should be over.

[ActionDan]

Although I wouldn't put it past you to just vote PP/Dwlee randomly without any thought whatsoever T3

[ActionDan]

That just means one of dwlee/arc is scum with VFP

I am done ignoring your stupid lurk.

VOTE: ActionDan

???

Exactly my reaction.

Has hop been around?

[ActionDan]

Well I see V/LA but maybe popped in discord at some point etc.

[ActionDan]

You could always explain your own vote Arc.

[ActionDan]

If VFP flips scum that's arguably TMI-level, no?

Or...

I'm not shit at the game

[ActionDan]

Re: this arc push,

I'd like the more obvious scum out first, though I can't really fault the votes.

[ActionDan]

On paper all of that makes sense, but your odds change depending on the strength of your townreads/scumreads. For example, if you think PP is town, then Psyche should always be voting me as I should always be voting Psyche.

Do you think Dwlee is more town than PP Psyche?

[ActionDan]

Not that it matters, but an oracle reveals only the role/suit of the last person they choose, not all their targets over the course of the game.

[ActionDan]

I'll be here tonight, unsure if I'll be here at deadline, maybe a couple hours earlier.

Arc is a much riskier elim than psyche. Could be a bus ofc but still. I wish there was a bit more direction from PP, like, a vote say.

[ActionDan]

a private vca method ive been working on suggests dantown but i am a bit attached to my pp read

Well that would mean that both Arc and Dwelee are lying about Mystic. Is that even possible?

no it isn't.

its 1-2 scum in {me,you,psyche}

0-1 scum in {Dwlee/Arc}

[ActionDan]

I do not know what NM was on about. Dwlee is suggesting that after the bride choose their target, fakeclaiming scum would be in less danger. Which is true. For example consider an actress that got a VT suit. If you claimed Mystic before the bride revealed, you could get caught out. After though, that resource was used up.

[ActionDan]

We kind of have to vote arc IMO.

Yes, but that is because you are voting her, really.

[ActionDan]

Then again, Arc tried to make this into an Arc vs Dwlee as much as I'm trying to make this an ActionDan vs Psyche.

[ActionDan]

I don't blame her Dwlee vote. It's natural enough. But I'd say putting me to E-1 for undefined reasons when Dwlee had his hand on the trigger and expressed interest in following T3 if I recall correctly would generally indicate simply wanting a mislynch.

[ActionDan]

Unlike Psyche, I think the PR part of the equation is negligible (the mechanical power of the role, that is).

[ActionDan]

I slipped with my terminology. Shows how awake I am. mis-elimination sorry.

[ActionDan]

The only observation I can make about that is that similar posts were made on pages 14-15 by VFP concerning NM and Arc did not seem to pay them the same attention you received. A mitigating factor is that because that discussion was earlier, perhaps it had more relevancy then (though I have found every post about NM's alignment postmortem to not be important).

I am going to sleep soon. Relying on plurality at 6p is a little spooky, though I don't see how any scum team at the moment could manipulate that drastically in their favor while T3 votes Arc. I don't know if I'll be able to post tomorrow before, but if I am it's going to be phone posting and not at my full capacity.

PP I know you've given a couple quick reads but I still am not sure what your elimination preferences are atm. It's looking like Arc one way or another if you remain non-committal to anyone else whether that be Psyche/me/Dwlee

[ActionDan]

I'm here briefly with about hour to go.

PP voting Dwlee not unexpected given past statements. I looked over the posts for about 5 mins and the well the case kinda washed over me. I don't hae time to digest it.

I did see PP leaning clearing VFP for a dumbtell. I don't get it.

Before anything weird happens with plurality I'm going to simply hammer.

I still prefer Arc over Dwlee.

VOTE: Arc

Wish we could go over this yesterday.

[ActionDan]

I guess I *shouldn't* vote yet but I think it's Psyche/Dwlee.

I don't really care what anyone thinks aside from T3. If he wants to vote me so be it. I clearly don't have the charisma to get my preferred elim, and this game is as messy as the last two pages.

[ActionDan]

I'm here briefly with about hour to go.

PP voting Dwlee not unexpected given past statements. I looked over the posts for about 5 mins and the well the case kinda washed over me. I don't hae time to digest it.

I did see PP leaning clearing VFP for a dumbtell. I don't get it.

Before anything weird happens with plurality I'm going to simply hammer.

I still prefer Arc over Dwlee.

VOTE: Arc

Wish we could go over this yesterday.

I’m extremely sus on this, since it looked like Arc was probably still going through so why the sudden switch? It looks like Dan was onboard with limming Arc but wanted towncred for being offwagon.

I love it.

[ActionDan]

Well I'm not voting. yet.

[ActionDan]

Maybe fill your gut with some pad thai. that's what makes me feel better.

[ActionDan]

As far as I could tell you said Arc was town via meta.

I do not remember Arc's meta, just general play style, and I don't remember there being much of a difference between Arc's scum and town gameplay. I would actually be intrigued to see how Hop could differentiate them when they come back.

[ActionDan]

I see a lot of posts and votes.

Obligatory "not voting" post.

I'll read.

[ActionDan]

ok so t3 is voting dwlee.

So I'll be voting there at some point.

[ActionDan]

It is I, Dwlee!

[ActionDan]

VOTE: Psyche

[ActionDan]

Well, I did nothing really.

I am sorry T3, I knew you'd be wanting to end the game early, and don't blame you.

[ActionDan]

Anyway the fun part! Math!

[ActionDan]

Upper bound for a mafia win is 13/28. This is assuming random eliminations in a 1 IC 6 vanilla 2 mafia vengeful nightless setup. People in the review thread definitely didn't think that hard about the setup. so tut-tut on CFJ especially.

[ActionDan]

How VFP got any town credit previous to the replace still eludes me.