micro 1049: taking it bit by bit (endgame)

[kennyk]

Hi everyone. This game got going really fast, despite the title.

So instead of some random voting stage starting post I will begin with a short summary.

And it starts with a quote from the opening post of our beloved mod:

welcome to micro 1049, which is mystery box of silver 14, subtitled taking it bit by bit. we will be trying to just get it done slowly and comfortably and consistently.

All in all we have quite a few players (sort of) claiming already: 2 N1 vigs, 2 with something that looks like at least a N1 role, too (maybe even N1 vig?), one lightning rod (or was it the paradox pathological liar), one VT and one ascetic.

Knowing my role, I guess, our game mod was very ironic with his opening words. It looks like it could be a very fast game (maybe even endgaming after N1?).

I agree with Koba, that holstering N1 would be a good thing for every vig. Otherwise we might end in a bloodbath with many killed by friendly fire.

What strikes me as odd setup-wise is the ascetic thing. If this is really part of a town role, wha is it in here? What should it be immune of at night? Protection, so it is killed by one of the vigs N1? Investigaion? Why with all the potential deaths N1?

[kennyk]

VOTE: rcenigma

i swear this is unrelated to the fact duck also voted him, though i will not complain if our reasons are the same

also i just woke up, hi koba what is the up

-D

VOTE: logic and literature

This is something that really frightens me. I am on the same page as Koba with the holstering and now the same seems to be the case with LaL and their claim. What is happening here?

[kennyk]

i didnt roll scum against you this time :p

That's not what I wanted to say with this. Fake claiming N1 vig in your first post would be even too crazy for you. Or maybe not?

[kennyk]

I agree with Koba, that holstering N1 would be a good thing for every vig. Otherwise we might end in a bloodbath with many killed by friendly fire.

No kills?

I hope there will be no kills N1. That means scum didn't kill either. So definitely a "yes" to your queation.

[kennyk]

k

lemme know if/when we go back to normally playing mafia

-D

With Koba on board that won't be possible. That is what troubles me most about me seeing things their way.

[kennyk]

VOTE: rcenigma

i swear this is unrelated to the fact duck also voted him, though i will not complain if our reasons are the same

also i just woke up, hi koba what is the up

-D

VOTE: logic and literature

This is something that really frightens me. I am on the same page as Koba with the holstering and now the same seems to be the case with LaL and their claim. What is happening here?

would you like to expand on why you believe an ascetic claim makes us more likely to be mafia? do you think we are a mafia ascetic or just mafia fake-claiming ascetic?

Like I said in my other post, I don't know why a town!ascetic should be part of this setup with all those kill related roles that are out there. Honestly I don't know if the ascetic part is faked or not. In case of you being scum it doesn't matter too much in my eyes.

[kennyk]

enchant/rce/worst/kenny are all town to me rn :3

bugspray has not been readable to me yet - actually id like datisi to push himself to read them here. (:

flea i have yet to read properly until d2 so just binned as null rn lol. I did correctly read them as non town last time we played tho

Which leaves misty and datisi/ari who i feel i have active reasons to scumread rn.

Reading Flea as null with just a

This is going to be mayhem isn't it...

post up to that point is not too far fetched for everyone. But our super reader Koba could have done better than that.

[kennyk]

Wait did LT claim masonry or something like that with Datisi?

I am not sure if this question is meant to be real or just a mock question. I'll answer it anyway:
Look at the players list:
Logic and Literature (Datisi + Aristeia)

[kennyk]

kenny, should i be worried about the fact that the last time we played a mere normal game, you seemed so completely lost wrt mechanincs, but now that we're playing a theme game that's obviously very non-traditional, you're suddenly such a master of mechanics that you can deduce an ascetic is a scum role?

-D

So you think I was completely lost? I agree, that I am far from a mechanics expert. In said game I just wanted to have an eye on not so common (and unlikely) setups.

Here so far no one has come up with a valid theory of why there is an ascetic role. For me it is just a bit more likely to be a scum thing. But it is far from enough to get you under the line.

[kennyk]

I dont have paranoia about kenny bc i scummed against town kenny b4

You are telling us, that you are not paranoid of me, because we once played game where you were scum and I was town? This is a new game. Who tells you it isn't the other way round this time?

[kennyk]

I am quite confident, that Koba is town. The reason is not the "discussion" with LaL. It is the early N1 vig claim.

We have a counter claim by Mistyx. But nobody seems to care about that fact too much. No one went "one of them did a fake claim". But why? Is it because of those mysterious comments about this game title being ironic or this game going to be mayhem? I would certainly think so. Maybe some might think that fake claiming N1 vig as scum so early is would be too good to much of a coincidence to be true.

The same might work for mistyx with her counter claim. But why didn't she go after Koba more?

Are there any thoughts about this?

[kennyk]

I also think applying the rule of 3 to a MBoS game is somewhat silly but if we have a third n1 vig, one of the three is probably a mafia vigilante or at least informed scum (last I knew schadd really liked doing neat things with informdd roles)

Can you flesh this out a bit?

rule of 3 is like, design theory, that if 3 of ~a thing~ is present in a game, one of the things is scum.
i don't really think it's necessarily true and i think schadd knows enough to design around it! but i'm also just putting it out there that instantly treating vig claims as town may not be prudent.

if there are 2 n1 vigs, i wouldn't be surprised if scum are informed of that. schadd_ does informed roles more creatively than like, honestly any setup designer i can think of? and i think scum being informed of there being multiple n1 vigs opens potential for dayplay e.g. claiming a n1 vig who will be holstering as a matter of policy.

i'm aware i'm explicitly referencing koba's play here and i literally don't care about their broader meta opinion of vigs. just putting it out there.

Yeah no I get what you were saying but I don't understand what you're meaning.

What does claiming vig gain that not claiming it doesn't if scum are already informed? Why can't there be 3 n1 vigs and scum still be informed? Why can't scum have n1 bp?

Basically I don't see the speculation as anything other than subtle discrediting koba so I want to see what you are actually getting at if that isn't the case.

I admit that I didn't take into account the fact that cum could be informed.

I agree with RCE that there could be 3 n1 (town) vigs and informed scum or that scum has n1 bp, although I am far from a game mech expert. It would all fall well into the opening statements by our game mod.

But I don't agree with his first assumption. If scum really is informed and they know, there is one or more n1 vigs out there claiming n1 vig could get the claiming player some town cred. Just like Koba got cred for their claim. So with the possibility of an informed mafia Koba gets a little bit lower on my list than they were before.

[kennyk]

ok let's vote koba out b4 they come back

-A

[kennyk]

One thing I don't understand are the two votes on bugspray. Out of the blue mistyx voted bugs with no explanation and she disappeared. A short time later The Worst voted bugs, too, without any word of why.

I agree that bugs didn't post a lot and I have a very hard time reading that slot, too. But this voting pattern seems a bit odd.

[kennyk]

I admit that I didn't take into account the fact that cum could be informed.

Locktown.

I hope this is not just because I forgot to type a "s" in "scum".

[kennyk]

Bugs if you're town give me a GTH read you got, I know you're a slow starter usually but I wanna see something.

Misty, why Bugs?

Kenny I need to read you, got anything spicy?

Enchant, hi.

I have some red hot chili peppers (the vegetable, not the band). But I am not sure how they will help you reading me.

[kennyk]

I am back after a migraine. Man, I hate them.

Even though The Worst has asked for replacement, I am still going to give you my thoughts on this slot.

I did an ISO on that slot and the first thing that caught my eye was their second post (10th overall). At that point mistyx has said hello and Koba claimed N1 vig. The worst speculates about the game title being ironic and suspects a mad n1. There was no mistyx counterclaim or any other claims or hints yet. So this leaves me to think, that either the worst had a (n1 ?) power role, too, or they were part of an informed scum team (they later were the ones, that brought up the "informed scum theory" in post 291, if my search of the thread was right).

Then there is the vote on RCE in post 44. In post 45 LaL votes there, too, and asks the worst why they voted RCE. The worst states, they did because they thought Lal would do the same.

Then this vote is shifted to bugs in post 273. Again no direct explanation. Much later (post 491) they said that vote was just there because mistyx voted there, no matter what her reasons were (she didn't give any at that time of her vote). And a vote by a townread player on a non-townread player was enough to go there, too.

The first post had the worst at my town list early on. But after they brought up the possibility of an informed scum, that has changed (not because they brought it up, but because of negating my reasons to see them townish). The votes both look strange in the way they seem to follow someone elses votes.

Apart from a near locktown read on mistyx (which I don't agree with right now) there seem to be a lot of players they suspect of being scum. Quite a lot of names from our players list are part of posts like "I could go with XY".

Is this all part of an informed scum play where they try to vote or at least throw dirt at anyone who has some kind of negativity sticking to them at any given moment in the hope to start a killing bandwagon? Or is it town who likes to prod around and see what it will lead to?

Honestly I have yet to make up my mind about it. With the replacement pending, this is running on my backburner right now.

[kennyk]

i wouldn't even call it a policy i think going "oh i'll catch up later" then never doing it is just straight up a scumtell

who tf doubted kenny was town, show yourself

What has mistyxs post have to do with me? I clearly read it as if it was directed at bugs. Or did you quote the wrong post?

[kennyk]

I won't lim bugs right now, too.

1. I am not convinced they are scum. Right now bugs is on a null read spot for me.

2. We are not in time trouble. So even if I had bugs on my scummy list, I wouldn't elim them right now. We still could gain info from them and anyone else who still posts today. The only one gaining from a fast lim is scum.

So no vote from me on bugs (yet).

[kennyk]

I suggesting policy bugs for playing Dota.

You got a point there. This totally convinced me. I am going to vot... wait a sec! This could be seen as out-of-the-game influence. I won't do those forbidden things. You won't trap me that easy.

[kennyk]

Why would I do that?
Better yet how would I do that?

your question of "do you think you will survive night one?"

felt like you were telling me you would murder us at night.(I imagine it would be a vig or a delayed day-poison?)

You would do it because you think we are mafia.


-A

I guess Flea predicting a mayhem night one might early in this game might have played a part in this, too. This to me indicated a night activity of some sorts from Fleas side (pontentially a n1 vig, too?). As far as i remember, this was mentioned earlier and so far not denied by Flea. Did fea (I hope I used the right pronoun here) forget, that fea hinted at a claim earlier and tries to deny it now?

This feels kind of strange. Not enough to put my vote there (yes, I try to be careful with my votes), but Flea is clearly on my list of possible scummies now.

[kennyk]

VOTE: kennyk

Hello Titus. Nice to play with you again. Not so nice of you to directly vote me.

[kennyk]

Why would I do that?
Better yet how would I do that?

your question of "do you think you will survive night one?"

felt like you were telling me you would murder us at night.(I imagine it would be a vig or a delayed day-poison?)

You would do it because you think we are mafia.


-A

I guess Flea predicting a mayhem night one might early in this game might have played a part in this, too. This to me indicated a night activity of some sorts from Fleas side (pontentially a n1 vig, too?). As far as i remember, this was mentioned earlier and so far not denied by Flea. Did fea (I hope I used the right pronoun here) forget, that fea hinted at a claim earlier and tries to deny it now?

This feels kind of strange. Not enough to put my vote there (yes, I try to be careful with my votes), but Flea is clearly on my list of possible scummies now.

Near enough for me.

The thing is I'm not going to confirm or deny anything.
I saw 2 N1 vig claims, an aesetic claim and I can't remember if the now retracted lightning rod claim was around that time.
These games are also always beautifully chaotic.

So you tell me, am I claiming something? Or am I throwing up dust against the scum to cloud who their shot should be?
Everyone on this list bar you and Ari have played with me before, everyone knows what I bring and that what I bring ebbs and flows with my mood.

Lets go back to the post you quoted, what do you see there, Kenny?

The lightning rod claim was retraced at the time of your "mayhem post" and the ascetic claim not yet there. Both facts don't matter though (I guess), because I don't see how an ascetic could cause mayhem n1 and in the Enchant claim/retract I am not too sure which is serious and which is for the lolz.

It all looked like a hint of a claim to me. As to what your motive for that was, I am not sure. Could be throwing dust at scum. Could be you are what you hint to be and hope that scum thinks you are throwing dust at them. Could be scum throwing dust at town. ...

Going back to the post I quoted I see a conclusion that is potentially false (thanks for making me look again. Didn't see it the first time). Your question "Do you think you're going to survive N1?" could have many directions. LaL not surviving n1 could have many causes:
a) You being vig and thinking LaL is scum. (I don't see why you would ask this question if you intended to do so)
b) Any other vig having the same thought process (for example Koba, despite the holstering claim).
c) Any vig who had enough of the LaL/Koba thing and wants to get rid of at least one of them.
d) Scum getting rid of one player. (Everyone can go through her/his/their/faer own list of why scum would do this. There are too many potential options I have time for right now)

[kennyk]

This is going to be mayhem isn't it...

hello!

i think i know you, am i right on that?

You do know me, you also know one or two of my alts/hydras too

yeah i was pretty sure on that id guess but you asked me not to say it so i didn't

hope you've been well!

As well as I can be, Whats your thoughts so far? If memory serves you're usually pretty solid with read rates.

i think rce's entrance was scummy and i think tw has felt disengaged a scummy way

out of everyone else i got the best vibes from enchant

I have strong scumvibes out of enchant but if scum is informed I'm almost ready to lock you in as town. Can I get an expansion on your enchant read given you were the one that pointed out their claim retraction (I kind of missed that early game).

I guess I need help here. Why would you lock mistyx as town if scum is informed? What has the informed part to do with it?

[kennyk]

Also want to pick your brain on if gaming the setup is possible. It can wait though.

I guess you are referring to mistyxs page one post about the best strategy if everyone is a n1 vig (?).

I have put some thought in this, too, but I am not getting to a solution that would end in desaster. The best way to deal with our skills in a 7 n1 vigs vs. 2 scum scenario (if we really are in such. Remember that there were non vig claims and the 7 vs. 2 isn't 100 % for sure either) has to involve some kind of predesigned targeting. If every vig shoots at whomever they think is most likely scum or even not at all, it would end in chaos and the outcome would be more or less random.

What if everyone shoots the player above him in the players list? Like I shoot Koba, LaL shoots me ... This would work, if we really are all vigs and scum has no adjacent spots on the list (or gets there by limming the player between them, if they are one apart) as the two players above scum would survive the night. Those two must be town. If the two scummies are neighbors on our players list it is 1 vs. 1 on day 2. Apart from the fact that scum could nightkill that player it will be endgamed anyway. And than there is this multitude of possible outcomes when there are other roles present.

I don't like the odds of this at all. No I didn't calculate them. It is just that it feels too far away from 100 % success to be good.

There seem to be better odds if we get to 1 on 1 duels. We elim one player today and design four pairs where the two players are to shoot each other tonight. If we really are 7 vigs vs. 2 scum and the lim one scum this strategy is game over for scum. If we lim one of 7 vigs we have to be lucky that none of the four pairings consists of the two scummies. The problems in this pattern is, that there could be non vig townies out there and that we need to find a pairing system. Finding this system could well be influenced by scum. Is 1-2, 3-4, 5-6, 7-8 better than 1-8, 2-7, 3-6, 4-5?

I can't think of any pattern that would help us getting way better odds. But maybe mistyx is better at logic and/or I missed something.

[kennyk]

Or we just play mafia

Like someone mentioned in this thread (too lazy to look it up), I am in general taking more of a mech approach. That's why I think about possible game winning strategies a lot (I admit often more than about reads on players) because it is a purely logic approach.

But in this case we have to play mafia. Maybe d2 will get us to a winning strategy (if there is an "us" left).

[kennyk]

Imagine all scum are bulletproof.

That would really be a twist.

[kennyk]

I strongly doubt everyone is a vigilante, because that is breakable just by getting everyone to shoot one above/below them.

I wouldn't put it past scum to be BP.

But we do have a claimed asectic.

As I pointed out that this breaking strategy only works if scum is scattered in the players list. If let's say Koba and I were scum (Just for this example. This is not a claim ). The only players not shot by vigs in a shoot-the-player-above-you would be Koba and worst/Titus (the players list needs an update). This alone would be endgamed in favor for scum. And with the "we each shoot the one above us"-scheme known to Koba and me, we would very likely nightkill Titus. Which only leaves Koba. Definitely not a town breaking strategy.

And I also mentioned the claims which, if true, would destroy it. And the possible bulletproof-scenario totally breaks the breaking tactics (one BP scum would be enough).

[kennyk]

VOTE: kennyk

Hello Titus. Nice to play with you again. Not so nice of you to directly vote me.

This awkward. Too kind given gamestate.

Note to self: Never ever give Titus a warm welcome.

[kennyk]

GG scum.

And sorry for flaking this game the way I did. Like I told schadd_ in a PM (thanks for modding btw), real life hit harder than expected. Our family offered to take some refugees from Ukraine and there was way more to organise than we thought.

After everything was on track I was already replaced, but I still followed the game. And here I my two cents:

Thanks Koba for clearing my slot early on. You did a great job there.

As can be seen in the scum PT it was quite clear on D1 that bugs was the neapolitan as they were actively looking for other VTs. None of the vigs would do that and LaL claimed ascetic already.

So the D1 elim was good from our point of view. This paired with the fact that mistyx and my slot were at that moment relatively safe from being vigged (either because of holstering or others being higher on each vigs scum list).

NKing Koba felt like the right thing for scum to do. I definitely wouldn't hae considered LaL or bugs for a NK. That would have reavealed too much of the game setup.

That's why I think enchant shooting the ascetic LaL was the only drawback in N1 for scum. No vig kill at all or only vigs being killed would have been better.

I honestly nearly fell off my chair when I read FLs neapolitan claim. The good thing is that no one seemed to remember my posts about doubting LaLs ascetic claim. With me/FL being a neapolitan this doubting would have been way off. If someone had pointed this out the scale in the bugs/FL fight could very well have been tipped the other way.

I guess I would have tried to put pressure on Enchant. I never claimed anything on D1 (as did FL) and kept my role vague. But I guess there were some crumbs leading to my slot being a potential vig. So I would have claimed vig and the killing of LaL (based on the ascetic claim I didn't believe too well and maybe on me being more on the Koba side of the argument). With the pressure on Enchant D1 this could have rsulted in Enchant taking the blame for the Koba kill for all the wrong reasons.

But this is all ifs and whens. Thanks all for this game.

@ schadd_: Just because I am curious, what did you expect to happen when you created this setup?