Micro 629 - The Arena - Game Over

[Hopkirk]

Assuming no alts/other sites i don't know about:
Mapwolf hasn't played a game with any of us before (based on completed games).
Mapwolf is the second least experienced player in the game.
Waiting until mapwolf posts before any other comments on him.

[Hopkirk]

Mapwolf already knows that information. How could it affect his responses.

[Hopkirk]

How he responds to me saying that would also be relevant. Pointing it out is very similar to what you're complaining about now.

[Hopkirk]

What do you mean 'they picked it so fast'?

[Hopkirk]

Psuedo-Votecount 1

No votes yet. Submit votes with

VOTE:

With 8 players voting, it takes 5 votes for a nomination.

Why did you make this with no votes yet?
Also i think you voting picks a target, so be careful.

I’ll be V/LA starting for the weekend starting Friday at 5 but I think there should be sufficient time to get even a cursory read off what little posting we have to make my suggestion to Map.

I would've picked randomly if i was mafia. That is my best guess since they picked it so fast. Another possibility is that they picked me because i haven't gotten as many completed games, so i would be an easy early lynch.

Based on your later responses – do you think scum would continue to pick randomly so nothing could be read into the Gladiator choice?

How he responds to me saying that would also be relevant. Pointing it out is very similar to what you're complaining about now.

If you say so. Personally I don’t think after you undercut the original line of questioning there would be much fruit to be gained but that’s me.

Nobody played with him before is an obvious point. As is that he's new.
I like Map Wolf since he mentioned something (albeit flawed) that i hadn't mentioned when he could easily have just said 'new so easier lynch and nobody's played with me'.

[Hopkirk]

RVS vote:

VOTE: Dunn

UNVOTE:

...I really dont care who gets picked to be gladiated. Theres also too much WIFOM in this game, and I have a feeling this game is scum-sided.

Why did you unvote?

[Hopkirk]

Nobody played with him before is an obvious point. As is that he's new.
I like Map Wolf since he mentioned something (albeit flawed) that i hadn't mentioned when he could easily have just said 'new so easier lynch and nobody's played with me'.

There are 2 scum who would have discussed. It is just as easy to give the answers he did from advice of his buddy.
I'm sure before picking if scum did self pick they would discuss the reasons for it.
I'm not saying that map is scum here at all I'm just surprised that people are liking him for such simple reasons.

Good point, i was overlooking a partner telling him what to say.

RVS vote:

VOTE: Dunn

UNVOTE:

...I really dont care who gets picked to be gladiated. Theres also too much WIFOM in this game, and I have a feeling this game is scum-sided.

Why did you unvote?

Pls read; did you not catch the part where it said RVS VOTE? Certainly you know what it stands for? That said, I realized there is no RVS in this game, plus in terms of gladiator picks, I haven't decided yet. So, thus the unvote since the voting has been repurposed.

RVS vote:

VOTE: Dunn

UNVOTE:

...I really dont care who gets picked to be gladiated. Theres also too much WIFOM in this game, and I have a feeling this game is scum-sided.

Why did you unvote?

He's actually afraid of me after dota mafia

25% correct. I voted yoym yes, cuz of DoTA mafia, but not out of fear. Again, it was an RVS vote as clearly stated in the post. And I explained the unvote in the above.

Forgeting theres no real "RVS" in this setup could be considered a townslip, but to save us from WIFOM, I ask you ignore that particular aspect/conclusion concerning my vote.

1.) Yes i know what RVS means. That aggressive kind of tone is counter productive. Secondly you seem in favor of simulating voting/RVs while maintaining it doesn't exist. Further, a vote then unvote in about 10 minutes without explanation doesn't make it obvious you 'made a mistake'. Seems like something has changed.
2.) (sarcastic) Mafia can't kill this game so i should be safe from kills. Oh we have kills in this game! Since i didn't know i town slipped so can't be mafia.
That is an exaggerated version to demonstrate the point. How exactly is it 'blindness' that people don't see you're town. Can scum not make that post or pretend to not know something?

It would make more sense for scum to pick thenselves in this game as they get a free nk if the game stalls to deadline, and they get to choose who to challenge.

My only problem with this theory is the fact map is holding a public vote, but currently, I think the odds are in favor of Map being scum.

Pedit: @Dunn -- Yes, thats a good way to put it
@Vedith - It is, as scum would realize that since only two people can be voted, rvs really wouldnt exist. Nonetheless, I asked you all to ignore it, so pls do.

Why do you think map is scum then?

[Hopkirk]

Nobody played with him before is an obvious point. As is that he's new.
I like Map Wolf since he mentioned something (albeit flawed) that i hadn't mentioned when he could easily have just said 'new so easier lynch and nobody's played with me'.

There are 2 scum who would have discussed. It is just as easy to give the answers he did from advice of his buddy.
I'm sure before picking if scum did self pick they would discuss the reasons for it.
I'm not saying that map is scum here at all I'm just surprised that people are liking him for such simple reasons.

Good point, i was overlooking a partner telling him what to say.

RVS vote:

VOTE: Dunn

UNVOTE:

...I really dont care who gets picked to be gladiated. Theres also too much WIFOM in this game, and I have a feeling this game is scum-sided.

Why did you unvote?

Pls read; did you not catch the part where it said RVS VOTE? Certainly you know what it stands for? That said, I realized there is no RVS in this game, plus in terms of gladiator picks, I haven't decided yet. So, thus the unvote since the voting has been repurposed.

RVS vote:

VOTE: Dunn

UNVOTE:

...I really dont care who gets picked to be gladiated. Theres also too much WIFOM in this game, and I have a feeling this game is scum-sided.

Why did you unvote?

He's actually afraid of me after dota mafia

25% correct. I voted yoym yes, cuz of DoTA mafia, but not out of fear. Again, it was an RVS vote as clearly stated in the post. And I explained the unvote in the above.

Forgeting theres no real "RVS" in this setup could be considered a townslip, but to save us from WIFOM, I ask you ignore that particular aspect/conclusion concerning my vote.

1.) Yes i know what RVS means. That aggressive kind of tone is counter productive. Secondly you seem in favor of simulating voting/RVs while maintaining it doesn't exist. Further, a vote then unvote in about 10 minutes without explanation doesn't make it obvious you 'made a mistake'. Seems like something has changed.
2.) (sarcastic) Mafia can't kill this game so i should be safe from kills. Oh we have kills in this game! Since i didn't know i town slipped so can't be mafia.
That is an exaggerated version to demonstrate the point. How exactly is it 'blindness' that people don't see you're town. Can scum not make that post or pretend to not know something?

It would make more sense for scum to pick thenselves in this game as they get a free nk if the game stalls to deadline, and they get to choose who to challenge.

My only problem with this theory is the fact map is holding a public vote, but currently, I think the odds are in favor of Map being scum.

Pedit: @Dunn -- Yes, thats a good way to put it
@Vedith - It is, as scum would realize that since only two people can be voted, rvs really wouldnt exist. Nonetheless, I asked you all to ignore it, so pls do.

Why do you think map is scum then?

1) 5 minutes. Thats enough time to read the thread.... (

which is exactly what hapoened

). That is also when I remembered the gladiator mechanic that I forgot about. Your perspective of the situation is definitely confirmation biased. So, yes, something did change:

I remembered there was a gladiator mechanic and therefore, RVS didn't really exist.

2) Mafia don't have kills; the game is night-less unless we get a deadline no lynch in which case mafia gain a nk. Forgeting the gladiator mechanic is a townslip because mafia choose the gladiator in advanced. Obviously, mafia could fake it (which is why I asked you to ignore it which is the exact opposite of what you've done), but townslip != Town and Townslip <> Mafia; it is null as it could be natural or could be faked. Noticing your own townslips is not a scumtell; it is null. Not to mention, I never said it made me town; I asked people to ignore it; your response shows ignorance, as by blindness, I am refering to the fact that Vedith seemed to think the post wasn't a townslip, not because Vedith said I wasn't town (which tbqh, I dont think Vedith even commented on my alignment, so its funny you come to that conclusion despite making several assumptions.....)

Regarding Map -- You obviously read the post; the answer is right there. That said, it's early game, so scumreads arent going to be quite as detailed quite yet and they may be more setup spec-related or nitpickey right now.

VOTE: Kirk - OMGUSish, but where my gut says right now.

1.) As has been said, this is only relevant if both of the following are true: A.) You are town. B.) Everyone can read you mind to find out your intentions. It should be pretty clear what's flawed with that logic.
2.) Mafia want to appear towny. Townslipping legitimately is towny. Pointing out 'oh i townslipped' does not look natural/legitimate, hence looks fake. This is more scummy than townie. Pointing it out is fine, calling it a townslip doesn't seem natural.

3.) So it's optimal for mafia to pick themselves so we should lynch whoever mafia picks? This is completely flawed logic (and self-disproving actually if everyone holds this view then things would go back and forth/ standard wifom).

[Hopkirk]

I can't see anywhere where mapwolf has really commented on other players/given reads yet.
This is different to previously (http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 2#p8025831), see for example page four, post 87. This does feel potentially like a vote is being held to avoid being heavily involved/ happening instead of scumhunting.

[Hopkirk]

@66/magna
"Yes, and you per-emptively pointing those facts out in an effect coached him to not just drop that response. Do you not see this is why I was not happy in the first place? Yes, there was a possibility if he was scum that he'd have been coached up pre-game but that doesn't mean it absolutely happened."

Before posting it i was taking your post into account and didn't think there's was anything that would interfere in it.

"Did you not actively read the rules of this game while it was in Pre-game?"

I did, but overlooked something obvious.

@Leon
'For example, the only player I have any kind of meta with in this game is Magna. If I was scum, Magna is the last person I would want to pick for the first gladiator, because the association between me and Magna being picked first would be slightly easier to make.'

Why didn't mafia look for this pregame and pick you?

[Hopkirk]

I can't see anywhere where mapwolf has really commented on other players/given reads yet.
This is different to previously (viewtopic.php?p=8025831&user_select%5B%5D=28042#p8025831), see for example page four, post 87. This does feel potentially like a vote is being held to avoid being heavily involved/ happening instead of scumhunting.

So this looks like you are wanting a meta-read of MapWolf. In that case did you do a similar read for his completed Scum game?

Here’s the link –

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=56&t=67479

What is your assessment of that game’s play compared to the Newbie you linked?

I didn't read the entire newbie game, just his early posts so it's not a fully meta analysis. What i'm saying is that he's doing something (votecounts) which aren't really meaningful but make it look like he's forming reads instead of forming those reads. I know he makes reads as mafia in that game you linked, but its different here where its advantageous not to as mafia (not make enemies when you're 1/2 lynch targets, disassociate from choices, and not needing to fake scumhunt) whereas its not advantageous as town.

[Hopkirk]

I didn't read the entire newbie game, just his early posts so it's not a fully meta analysis. What i'm saying is that he's doing something (votecounts) which aren't really meaningful but make it look like he's forming reads instead of forming those reads. I know he makes reads as mafia in that game you linked, but its different here where its advantageous not to as mafia (not make enemies when you're 1/2 lynch targets, disassociate from choices, and not needing to fake scumhunt) whereas its not advantageous as town.

How does him doing pseudo Vote Counts in any way make it look like he is forming reads? In my mind it is the opposite – clearly those PVCs don’t provide content. I also don’t see it as very advantageous for him as Mafia to do what you are claiming he is doing as he’s one of the necks on the line once a target is chosen. If his play at this stage is clearly Pro-Mafia he strongly runs the risk of losing the 1v1 with whoever he chooses.

I’m not suggesting that Map’s play should not be scrutinized. I think it should. But I think when at least 2 people haven’t even posted yet jumping to “he’s not providing solid reads” is a little premature.

--

Dunn is reading as town to me.

Please elaborate as I am not seeing Town from Dunn.

I think i phrased it wrongly. Rather than looks like he's 'forming reads' i was thinking along the lines of 'doing something /posting a lot'/ not forming reads.
It's not no solid reads, its no comments on people despite high activity. Not really trying to engage perhaps is the way to put it.
I'm not entirely sure how scum would rationalist it though as it would be pretty obvious and quickly caught if he continued like that as scum.

[Hopkirk]

I will pull the meta card -- My wiki page should explain a lot.

Regarding townslips, bring self-aware of them ex post facto and pointing them out really isn't a scumtell, it's more null than anything. Maybe it would've been better to just not point it out, but I figured someone would notice eventually, which is why I pointed it out. Pointing out your own townslips is null, not scum, not town.

Your wiki page is empty.

Having a vote seems helpful for town if mapwolf is town and helpful for scum if mapwolf is scum. If mapwolf is scum then it's town-scum to choose between. If he's town it's town (him) and informed pick that is a maximized chance of being mafia as opposed to random. Doesn't this mean it'll result in the best chance of having one mafia as a vote option?

@Mapwolf: Who is scummiest at the moment?

[Hopkirk]

VOTE: 123456789

[Hopkirk]

I will pull the meta card -- My wiki page should explain a lot.

Regarding townslips, bring self-aware of them ex post facto and pointing them out really isn't a scumtell, it's more null than anything. Maybe it would've been better to just not point it out, but I figured someone would notice eventually, which is why I pointed it out. Pointing out your own townslips is null, not scum, not town.

Your wiki page is empty.

Having a vote seems helpful for town if mapwolf is town and helpful for scum if mapwolf is scum. If mapwolf is scum then it's town-scum to choose between. If he's town it's town (him) and informed pick that is a maximized chance of being mafia as opposed to random. Doesn't this mean it'll result in the best chance of having one mafia as a vote option?

@Mapwolf: Who is scummiest at the moment?

No, it isn't. You seem to be unaware that I am an alt.

Actually being aware you have an alt is why i disliked your post.
Saying look at wiki page when empty implies you are saying you are new, which i know you aren't because of a thread titled 'do you have an alt' (No main name posted of course).
Turns out you just think everyone knows who you are automatically, so i'm not sure what to think there. Removes my initial dislike though since you didn't try and deny it to play new.

[Hopkirk]

Are there any setups similar to this where mafia pick who can be lynched at the start? Nomination kind of, but that's still very different.

[Hopkirk]

Don't really thank 12345... is mafia now. Tone and explanation change my mind there.
Don't have much time tonight.

[Hopkirk]

I will look into 123456789's ISO. I do agree that PowerDown is an option do to his lack of activity
Priority is to nominate someone who i think is scum, and i am still not sure about that.

I dislike the idea of nominating a low activity person. If MW is town then he'd know there's at least one mafia among others, whereas powerdown would have been a complete gamble/ not even give us anything from the voting. Didn't do it, but i dislike the suggestion.

[Hopkirk]

'I do agree it seems a bit like a backtrack. What i said was that i won't solely be basing my decision on "votes". The reasons for this were:
1. So that i would get involved more.
2. I was a bit tired of making votecounts.'

Could you explain the comment 'tired of making votecounts' a bit more?

[Hopkirk]

Going through what i've missed, posting as i go rather than at the end.

Okay, did a quick read through. I apologize that I haven't been active from the start as I usually am.

My initial feeling is that the way this game is going right now is just BS.

Map Wolf is scum: the other scum, through pseudo votes, can easily make sure the gladiate target is a townie, and thanks to town cred (scum would never pick themself!) the townie voted for gets lynch by default. As a bonus, Map Wolf doesn't get any negative cred because it's not his fault he picked town- he was just following the town's will.

alternative

Map Wolf is town: the scum can easily push the pseudo votes to a townie, and we are stuck voting for T or T and we lose. Due to random chance, we might just vote a town player anyway without any scum push being needed.

Bad news either way. If Map Wolf is town, he should pick his own target. The most voted player is more likely town than scum, as town has little to go on while scum at least know to avoid voting themselves and would be happy to see any townie get lynched.

I am not going to make a pseudo vote, it just plays the game into scum's hands. Map Wolf needs to make the decision himself, and take full responsibility for it.

VOTE: Map Wolf

I think there is a fair chance that scum might self-pick in this setup, and I think it's a lot more likely than the chance that we randomly found a scum with the fake vote... so, yeah.

160 sounds more reluctant/less sure than 82.
I slightly dislike the use of finding scum with random vote rather referring to 123 in any way.

[Hopkirk]

^Wrong reply.

A proper reply would be that you can't rule someone out when they haven't posted, not that they were my first consideration.

This kind of makes sense. On the other hand, it makes more sense from the perspective of non-scumhunting mafia which is what i was feeling a bit earlier. To rephrase this, it gives me a sense of not enough interesting in developing scum reads, and more in self-survival.

[Hopkirk]

@karnos

– So your stance is that giving any reads helps scum to select the players who best serve as Gladiators? I wonder why you don’t consider that said target would consider the implication of being targeted after giving reads. Why is that?

--

If Powerdown gets replaced (which is looking likely) I would hope we would get at least a 24-48 hour extension to get some content from the slot.

I like this as i was initially unsure as to what was optimal regarding the reads argument. This post makes me thing of a scenario (quite loosely related) like the following: 4 players left, A-B-C-D. A confirmed town by cop, strong townread on B. C dies. A has cause to look through to see if B or D is mafia. More basically, you consider why scum picks you.

@karnos

– So your stance is that giving any reads helps scum to select the players who best serve as Gladiators?

I wonder why you don’t consider that said target would consider the implication of being targeted after giving reads. Why is that?

Can you rephrase the second question?

1: No. My stance is that giving reads on players who are not votable (anyone but Map Wolf or 123456789) helps scum select a gladiator without benefiting town, but giving reads on 123456789 or Map Wolf is certainly useful.

2: Are you saying a town player could give fake reads on a player so the gladiator is chosen based on false info? Sure, they could, but it's also likely to confuse the hell out of other town and make the townie in question look very scummy when their inconsistent reads are revealed.

This sounds like a weird response. I'm not sure how you get 'town should fake reads so that mafia picks them' from if picked town should consider why.

[Hopkirk]

Dunn's last three posts, all tunneling the lurker.

Actually tunneling a newb with 3 total posts on MS who obviously site flaked. Scum looking for an easy Town mislynch ...

That does sound really bad, but i don't see how that really benefits Dunn. He can't lynch the lurker today, they were obviously going to be replaced, and there's no way someone (especially the replacement) wouldn't notice. It just seems stupid from both town and scum. Only thing is if he wants to avoid weighing in on the 123/mapwolf, which could be for various reasons and i'm not really sure which are more likely (especially pre-flips).

[Hopkirk]

Here is a combined post-by-post/ISO/reads list:

Vedith begins the game by calling out Leonshade's claim that Map Wolf 'townslipped', and I like the thought process that is going on here. That said, the subsequent discussion about how scum might pick the gladiator is pretty bad, and it is from him that this originates. At this point in the game priority should have been given to picking out a target for the gladiator, not talking about last night's actions. I really don't like post #42, a needless combination of speculation and shading. And then it emerges he's after LeonShade rather than Map Wolf. A strong contender for target in my mind.

MagnaOfIllusion seems needlessly prickly early in the game, fighting over really very little with HopKirk. This is dropped quite soon, however. I don't agree with most of post #65 but I do like some of the questions asked and the multiple routes of discussion opened up. Anything to cement this move away from the gladiator pick. Interactions with HopKirk in post #71 are better. Could do with more from this slot, currently null.

Leonshade's early play is confusing, proclaiming a townslip, doing little with it (in the next post he's 'leaning town' on Map Wolf), then voting a player who hasn't yet posted. By post #61, however, he's engaging well, answering questions and posting some useful, original analysis. The second part of this post is particularly good. Loses a little bit of towncred in post #83 when the read on Dunnstral is retracted with little explanation, however. I could do with an elaboration for the unvote on 123456789. This is then given with no prompting. Leonshade looks town.

Hopkirk I'm liking from the first page. Starts off with useful information and proposes some use for it after being accused of ruining a reaction test. Reminder in post #38 about how the gladiator chooses their target is also helpful. Leaps back in with post #57 asking 123456789 why Map Wolf is scum, trying to direct discussion into something useful (if not optimally useful). I feel similarly about his subsequent posts. Really liking HopKirk for town.

Dunnstral's starting contributions look pretty towny to me, and he and I were seeing the same things regarding Vedith. Gets right down to business helping find Map Wolf a target rather than mire himself in a useless conversation. Would obviously like to see more, however.

Karnos comes in late and posts little. Yes, the way the game is going isn't great, but not for the reasons he's stating. Then he votes Map Wolf. Post #166 is interesting though. We certainly need more from him but I wouldn't have picked him for the target.

As I understand it, none of the above players are in the runnings for a lynch today; that's between Map Wolf and 123456789. Here are my thoughts on them:

Map Wolf: proposing a 'pseudo-vote' almost immediately looks quite towny to me, as does the reminder that gladiators can be scum too. The decision to go for 123456789 was made well. The complaints about a lack of reads are answered, even if they are a little hand-wavy, but then I feel this can come from being in a unique position in the game rather than from being scum.

123456789: strange vote-then-unvote, and with a complaint about how the game is balanced, no less. He seems to trip up over himself regarding the reasons for the vote-unvote, and then votes Map Wolf, deciding somehow that they're statistically more likely to be scum than not. Post #56 is absolutely terrible, especially given that, if anyone at this stage has considered setup, it is Vedith. Post #130 rehearses what we've already been through. I don't agree with LeonShade that being chosen got 123456789 to do some work (or, at least, not towny work). Suddenly the gladiator is more likely town than scum, and in post #147 he doesn't acknowledge that he

can

read Map Wolf as town and go for an effective no lynch. The suspicion should not have died as quickly as it did. The ISOs are very late considering many pick up on singular posts made well before the target was chosen. Some of them, particularly the read on HopKirk, seem almost manufactured. MagnaOfIllusion's ISO and the placement in the list don't appear to be consistent. I'm happy with a 123456789 lynch today.

1.) Vedith:
‘discussion about how scum might pick the gladiator is pretty bad’
Why? This should affect who is picked as the second lynch option.
Also ‘I really don't like post #42, a needless combination of speculation and shading. And then it emerges he's after LeonShade rather than Map Wolf.’ Seems to be painting a strange picture. Vedith had a few posts with a few questions, and I don’t see hard going after map. Also why would you only go after the pick on page 2-3?

2.) Mapwolf
‘proposing a 'pseudo-vote' almost immediately looks quite towny to me, as does the reminder that gladiators can be scum too’
These feel like pretty basic things that anyone would think of, so I’m not sure how they’re that towny.
‘The decision to go for 123456789 was made well.’
Even if you think it’s good for town mapwolf, it’s good for scum mapwolf. That many people fake ‘voting’ implies 1234 is the safest nomination/ the most likely nomination that will result in a non-map wolf lynch. This should be at most null.

VOTE: Map Wolf

So that's Dunn and Frog as scum then.
Easy game, easy life.

Is the vote at the start of the post purely to prevent a no lynch, or for other reasons?

Noting 1234’s response in 212 only points out what he dislikes about the read on him, which seems strange since he lists 9 problems. Seems a bit defensive (though that could be explained by the public paragraphs complaining about tunneling), by not also pointing other problems in frog's reads.

[Hopkirk]

Dunn's last three posts, all tunneling the lurker.

Actually tunneling a newb with 3 total posts on MS who obviously site flaked. Scum looking for an easy Town mislynch ...

That does sound really bad, but i don't see how that really benefits Dunn. He can't lynch the lurker today, they were obviously going to be replaced, and there's no way someone (especially the replacement) wouldn't notice. It just seems stupid from both town and scum. Only thing is if he wants to avoid weighing in on the 123/mapwolf, which could be for various reasons and i'm not really sure which are more likely (especially pre-flips).

I've weighed in

numbers is town

'I feel like numbers is town' isn't very much.

Leonshade's changing reads on me doesn't make any sense either and I am more suspicious of him for doing that.

Frog looks better than his predecessor

-

-

-

ok thanks guys for waiting for me I am now ready to end the day

I wanted the lurker lynched because he lurked through the 3 day phase past the point where the gladiate is chosen (and karnos wasn't necessarily suspicious for me at the time)

Don't know how that's "Cognitive Dissonance"

From these posts, can i summarize your position on frog's spot is: that you thought he was lurking rather than (site)flaking?

[Hopkirk]

Yes but that assumes there is no justification for the change. What you are suggesting is not being on record at all which seems mostly motivated to prevent being called out as scum for changing reads IMO.

"I was LYING about my reads, that is why they changed!"

I suppose that doesn't sound scummy at all to you? I mean, if I was playing with clones of myself, I'd expect myself to understand the town motivation, but there are a lot of players on mafiascum who play more from emotion than logic, and emotions tend to run hot when lying is involved.

This sounds like a weird response. I'm not sure how you get 'town should fake reads so that mafia picks them' from if picked town should consider why.

It was a weird question, there is a reason why I asked him to rephrase it.

Let me explain it more simply.

1- My basic premise is that giving information to scum, prior to gladiator selection, is bad.

2- That information can be shared with town before death 100% of the time in this setup.

3- The only logical conclusion I could draw, given the above, is that maybe Magna was suggesting giving fake reads, since that wouldn't give useful information to scum.

My immediate takeaway from 'I wonder why you don’t consider that said target would consider the implication of being targeted after giving reads. Why is that?' was that whoever is picked, if town, is likely to factor in that they were picked before making their choice. This seemed like the obvious way to read it. Ignoring whether it is correct or incorrect, i'm saying your response was strange as it doesn't seem to respond to what looks like the obvious meaning.

All your "I'm not giving reads it helps scum" stance seems to be doing is looking to protect yourself from potential scrutiny down the line about potential read flips on players not Map or 1234.

You are acting like there is some possible alternative. Someone is going to be picked as a gladiator, that is certain. If that is going to trigger a reevaluation of all of everyone's reads, then what is the point of sharing reads now at all anyway?

At what specific point did you move from the meaning being fake reads -> to the meaning being reevaluation?
Ignoring the second question so the person being asked can answer.



I'm going to have a look at a couple of 1234's other games, but i'm very likely voting mapwolf.

[Hopkirk]

I plan to hammer mapwolf in about 3 hours as otherwise i would not be back for deadline (or if someone unvotes i will vote as soon as i see that). Want to hear his last thoughts if possible.

[Hopkirk]

My immediate takeaway from 'I wonder why you don’t consider that said target would consider the implication of being targeted after giving reads. Why is that?' was that whoever is picked, if town, is likely to factor in that they were picked before making their choice. This seemed like the obvious way to read it. Ignoring whether it is correct or incorrect, i'm saying your response was strange as it doesn't seem to respond to what looks like the obvious meaning.

I'm confused now, because it seems like you are reversing time or something.

Reads now are occurring BEFORE the next gladiator is picked. These reads CAN NOT consider who is being targeted next, because these reads are being shared before the next gladiator target is known. The only way a read now could "consider the implication of being targeted after giving reads", IMO, is by giving fake reads in the hopes of influencing who is targeted to become the gladiator- but then again you run into the problem of lying to preform a crazy gambit that (IMO) probably won't payoff.

Order of events that will occur:
The gladiator is chosen.
The gladiator decides who to pick.
You reconsider reads AFTER being chosen. This should be clear by now.

'target would consider the implication of being targeted'= A is chosen, A considers why he was chosen

[Hopkirk]

Order of events that will occur:
The gladiator is chosen.
The gladiator decides who to pick.
You reconsider reads AFTER being chosen. This should be clear by now.

'target would consider the implication of being targeted'= A is chosen, A considers why he was chosen

Are you not following the thread? This whole line of discussion is related to sharing reads NOW. Not after the next gladiator is chosen, but now. Your order of events is literally backwards compared to what MagnaofIllusion is pushing.

He is pushing for this order:

Share reads NOW.
Scum picks gladiator.
Share reads again?
Pick gladiate target.
Share reads for the 3rd time.

Now, the issue I have is this-

Share reads NOW.
(what happens here?)
Scum picks gladiator.

What happens in between those two steps? Absolutely nothing. There is ZERO benefit to town sharing reads at this stage of the game, because those reads can still be shared after the gladiator for day 2 is chosen and town will have the exact same information either way, the only difference being scum is forced to pick a gladiator in the dark.

Not a benefit a few hours before deadline. Benefit when we had a while left which is when the discussion was ongoing.

Btw, this is order

Everyone gives reads so we can work out town/mafia and share thoughts.
Lynch
Mafia picks glad
Glad picks target taking into the consideration that they were picked and why that might be the case

[Hopkirk]

'Are you trolling? I gave way more than "numbers is town" I've been talking about them'

Specifically which posts? Looking at your iso i don't see it.

[Hopkirk]

Also since i'm not going to be on again before deadline: VOTE: Mapwolf

[Hopkirk]

I was reading Leon as slightly town leaning and Karnos as slightly scum leaning at the end of yesterday. Need to do reread of isos tomorrowish in light of picks. Before rereading I’d probably say something along the lines of 2 out of Vedith, Dunn, Karnos as mafia (partially based on POE and stuff I might be misremembering, so plausible this will change).

I agree with numbers that karnos seems like a potentially easy lynch, creating conflict over the reads list thing, and lacking a known pick for mafia. On the other hand, if he’s town, the danger for scum is his pick is basically random (from their perspective) as they don’t know who he’d pick, whereas you can make a better guess for other players. Seems like a risky pick unless mafia are sure he’ll be lynched, and then there’s the added risk of karnos doing more after he’s picked.

Karnos’s early posts D2 don’t really make a lot of sense coming from town or scum. Either he believes the not sharing reads, or it’s an act he realized it was too late to drop at this point. From that position 289 (TBH, I made a huge play error… assuming …town could discuss things with the gladiator before a target is chosen.) is kind of confusing.

293 seems to be missing the point on reads again/ the benefit of sharing them. Potentially misunderstanding the point of discussion in general too. Leaving aside the lack of votes in general, if you are town, and you think the other is town there’s no benefit to a quicklynch. I don’t get this logic.

@Karnos: I’d like to get a bit of clarification on when you realized this (see above paragraph) and if it changed your perspective on sharing reads.

@Dunn: The way i see it site flaking without a real post is only scummy to the extent new players leave games more as scum than as town, but that doesn't seem to be the argument you're making. Were you arguing that the lurking/flaking was a tactic?

[Hopkirk]

@Dunn: The way i see it site flaking without a real post is only scummy to the extent new players leave games more as scum than as town, but that doesn't seem to be the argument you're making. Were you arguing that the lurking/flaking was a tactic?

More like a policy lynch

That doesn't make sense to me. You wouldn't be enforcing any kind of policy by trying to send a message to people who will never receive it.

[Hopkirk]

Karnos: I’m going through every post in his iso, so no direct quotes (or this would be three times as long as it is, and basically none would be read). Grammar here is bad, so ask if anything is unclear/badly phrased.

80- Comes in late in the voting period, saying nothing right away. Unlikely pick as 2nd possible lynch at this point.

82- Scumread on map. At this point Dunn has 2 votes, Leon/Vedith/Hopkirk have 1 vote. Could (not necessarily though) be an attempt to get mapwolf lynched in map/x, which would suggest Dunn as a possible partner, as he wants a lynch on MW rather than the person MW picks at this point. An important point is that he avoids actually giving out a scumread other than map, which seems bad for multiple reasons. Encouraging MW to pick without a vote would essential mean a town randomly picks someone on little info. We get a lot more info from a pseudovote in the case of MW town and vote lands on town than we would from the scenario karnos is suggesting. This is potentially interesting in light of later anti-information points. Other stuff I could go into here, but it’s somewhat repetitive.

123- Declares intent to probably vote Map after another read through (numbers had been picked at this point).

160- Votes MW for scum likely to pick self. No indication of anything found during ‘another read through’ could mean he never did one. Also, saying how the chance of self pick is above chance of randomly finding scum with fake vote implies he was always going to vote MW. If MW was town, the chance of him picking randomly without any real information (not even a rvs, but also when Karnos hadn’t posted much) is very similar. Vote is basically based on setup rather than anything about map. More interesting to note, despite an alleged read through, the reasoning for the vote is not backed by anything MW did or any quotes. If Karnos legitimately both 1.) Wanted MW lynched, and 2.) Was town, I’d expect to see more of an attempt at persuasion here. A lack of quoting and analysis suggests Karnos isn’t putting anything into getting a lynch of MW at this point.

166- Responds to numbers. Hasn’t actually done a reread, so 123/160 seems strange. If in 123 he plans to reread and in 160 hasn’t then why’s he already voting, and why didn’t he vote before? Also why no mention of not having reread yet in 160? Post also brings up the read sharing (RS) debate.

167- Immediately justifying position on RS. Whether this means anything depends if it was fake or not. Something to note is nobody asked him to justify it. Maybe he was planning to self-pick at this point. The actual positions given here seems to completely ignore any logic/people thinking why scum picked who they picked. If he thought we had time to discuss (24h), it doesn’t sound that much like what he’s saying here. The logic doesn’t seem to apply very well when there’s a discussion over who to pick second. The point in general feels like attempting to justify opportunism.

172- This on the other hand, sounds more legitimate. Says you can give info to town when relevant, which would assumedly be the 24h period. However, he also says, ‘You will always be able to give your reads to town before you die’, which alternatively suggests you should only be giving reads then. Could be read either way.

175- Doesn’t disagree with posting reads. This implies he only wants to not give reads himself. If half the game gives reads then it seems to defeat the point of not giving scum info on who people scum/town read. Seems like he should disagree with anyone posting more reads than they need to.

193- Still no reread as promised. Doesn’t look like that’s happening by this point. All about the RS debate/defending his position. The fake info thing really doesn’t make sense, I still don’t see how to get that from what magna said, and especially don’t see how it’s the only possible thing you could get from it. Also, considering why they are targeting is dismissed by Karnos, and this could happen in public, not privately. Seems more likely at this point Karnos understands no 24h rule.

207- Repeats the fake read point. Nothing to add.

208- Resummarises MW argument, MW is scum he Karnos would always self-glad as scum d1. Doesn’t explain yet why it’s a no brainer, and considering basic wifom shows it isn’t. Again, doesn’t interactive with MW in any way. Doesn’t point out scummy things that reinforce the idea of MW scum. Doesn’t attempt to be pushing it in any way. Also suggests 1234 is scum, with the dodgy logic of ‘123456789 - not scum unless map wolf is scum, in which case he might be scum too’, assuming scum would 100% pick self as glad, but 100% avoid being targeted/picked by glad (if glad is town), which doesn’t make any sense whatsoever. If scum though, knows at this point 1234 would not be his next attack target as MW would flip town.

242- Brings up lying again. He’s the only one saying this still. Language is still uncertain as to whether he thinks/knows there is/isn’t a 24h period.

243- Starts by responding to me, saying he wasn’t reluctant. Based on what I’ve seen in this iso, I’d say that is actually true, and I was misreading his position earlier. The bit about might be lynching town either way sucks doesn’t make much sense with a sure read.

246- RS again. Dismisses idea of sharing reads because if people’s reads change based on pick, then why post in the first place. Doesn’t consider looking at how people’s reads progress.

253- Weird response to me. Dismisses idea of "consider the implication of being targeted after giving reads" without giving fake reads. I don’t see how he couldn’t have got it at this point (that who scum picks might affect who you think scum are, and if you are picked that you might think why scum picked you), as it’s pretty clear to me. I get an impression here he knows the pick is immediate, not with a discussion where you can deliberate as to why you were picked.

254- Doesn’t want to interact with MW as he thinks MW is scum it seems like. Definitely prefers a MW lynch, but not helping it happen much.

261- Point 1- makes no sense. Karnos seems to be under the impression that nobody will consider why mafia picked who they did, despite his mapwolf case being 100% based on why mafia picked who they did. Point 2- Still dismissing the idea that reads change as a game goes on. At this point however, Karnos definitely says ‘scum pick a gladiator, then town has several days to pick the gladiate target’ which means by this point he believes the 24h thing exists, though several days is kind of strange to say. I know if I wasn’t sure I’d check the rules after making this post so I know for the future. If he looked at the rules, he would know there was no time. If he didn’t. I’d like to know why he later (d2) said he thought it was exactly one day, instead of several days.

262- Appear to think there is time to talk based on steps. Does not later respond to my next post which says mafia picks glad- then glad picks target. Note sure why he doesn’t respond, though I feel if this had continued It’d have soon been very clear the target is picked immediately. Shame he either didn’t respond, or wasn’t on between me posting that and deadline (as I did hammer a few hours later).

266- Suggests it is possible that both are town. Doesn’t make much sense in light of what he’s been saying up to now. Sure it’s always possible that anyone is town/scum in mafia, but what’s the point of making a post to say ‘It's certainly possible’, When you’re not being asked the question, if you are pretty sure?

D2

271- Does not want to start the day by saying why he picked who he picked, or consider why he was picked. The read on map (a very sure read) emerged from thinking about what mafia would pick too. No immediate comment on RS mistake, but that doesn’t really mean anything.

289- Agrees to give reads + admits to earlier mistake.

293- Technically correct, but doesn’t seems to realize discussion gives us reads. If leon things TvT, the focus should be on discussion, rather than pushing really hard from the start.

295- Reads list. Can’t tell how legitimate reads progression is for obvious reasons. Dunn read looks kind of strange- first point being because Dunn also (wrongly) thought mafia would glad themselves, which should be null. Secondly, pseudo vote on lurker gives a different impression to using the word flaker instead of lurker. I think if Karnos is mafia then Dunn is a good pick for his partner.
Hopkirk, 1234, Frog, Kranos reads- nothing to comment on. Read of null on vedith seems a bit strange, seems to be unsure, but it doesn’t sound too much like a null read. Magna read seems dodgy too, seems to think 1.) Dunn is more than null with a town lean, 2.) Saying he’s ignoring vedith/magna interactions seems a bit strange based on them being over the accepted misunderstanding. I’d have thought there’d be something to comment on over that, and would like to hear something. Saying about how 182 from Leon was really bad is kind of strange since the 3rd paragraph that Karnos says is scummy is very similar to how I felt about MW. Same comment as before about Dunn.

296- Nothing important to comment on.
304- No comments.
318- Makes sense equally from town misunderstanding things, or scum intent.
323- Nothing.
330- As above.

Conclusions: Quite a few points in there I’d like other opinions on/responses too, but at the moment leaning scum for me. If scum, Dunn seems like the most likely pick for partner. Not using my vote until I’ve done a leon iso (and hopefully reread everyone) too though.

[Hopkirk]

166- Responds to numbers. Hasn’t actually done a reread

Where are you getting that idea from?

From the lack of anything in 160 that implies you did a reread. ('Also why no mention of not having reread yet in 160?') What I'm asking there is was there a reread, and if so why didn't you signal it was finished+ say why you weren't saying about it until you were asked.

[Hopkirk]

From the lack of anything in 160 that implies you did a reread. ('Also why no mention of not having reread yet in 160?') What I'm asking there is was there a reread, and if so why didn't you signal it was finished+ say why you weren't saying about it until you were asked.

Weird.

Sunday:

"Driving home today. Full read through coming tonight. I think I will be voting map wolf though, based on my initial skim."

The next day:

"VOTE: Map Wolf"

Did you not know my time zone or something? I didn't see need to mention that I finished the read through, given that I was reading that night and my next post was the following day.

...and as i said, 160 had no indication you were not planning to share reads. At that time there's no reason to assume you have done a reread.

[Hopkirk]

To be fair, I too thought the thread was gonna be open when the new gladiator was picking their target.

Did not know about [ post ]Number [ / post ]. Will use when I do Leon (tonight if I have time).

Main things from the long post on Karnos/summary of what I thought was scummy (12 points). Expansion is in my bigger post.

(several)
-Suspicious going after mapwolf and only mapwolf. (eg, 82, 160.)

(several)
-Only reason for mapwolf scumread is basically setup based (hasn’t really considered setup today). Never really goes beyond this. Also ‘‘123456789 - not scum unless map wolf is scum, in which case he might be scum too’, assuming scum would 100% pick self as glad, but 100% avoid being targeted/picked by glad (if glad is town)’ (208 )

160 .
-Encouraging MW to pick randomly is inconsistent as town MW would be about as likely to pick scum as a vote, but would give less info

(General/omission)
-Never goes beyond setup on MW. Not pushing for a lynch on somebody you have such a large scumread suggests a lack of care in who is lynched/scum. Based on his rhetoric, should have pushed; yet Karnos doesn’t even go through MW’s posts and say point out scum motivation.
(Several+ 175 .)

-Read sharing still feels dodgy. Also specifically says doesn’t disagree with other people posting reads, which defeats the purpose of not sharing reads (unless he is the one picked). Sounds like a.) he wants to avoid sharing reads/putting in effort, and b.) is planning to pick self.

(Several. Argument with magna).
-Also on read dodging, the whole lying about reads thing he brought up doesn’t make logical sense as to why you’d think that.

Several, especially 266 and 243.
-Worries quite a bit about say ‘lynching town either way’. Inconsistent with being really sure MW is scum. Feels like he’s concerned about future days/how he looks, about lynching town, and looks like he might know how MW will flip.

266
-Makes a specific post to say it’s certainly possible that it was TvT, which really doesn’t match being really sure MW is scum. This doesn’t make sense as it wasn’t even a question directed at Karnos. Sure it’s always possible, but there’s no reason to make a post to say effectively ‘the person I’m sure is mafia could be town because nothing is ever 100%’, when you’re not being asked to weigh in on someone’s (almost throwaway) comment.

(general)
-Lack of interaction with MW at all. As above, seems to have some doubts, but they definitely look artificial. Also not trying to lynch MW.

295 read list
-Reads list 1:Dunn read looks kind of strange- first point being because Dunn also (wrongly) thought mafia would glad themselves, which should be null. Secondly, pseudo vote on lurker gives a different impression to using the word flaker instead of lurker. I think if Karnos is mafia then Dunn is a good pick for his partner. Read of null on vedith also seems a bit strange, seems to be unsure, but it doesn’t sound too much like a null read.

-Reads list 2: Magna read seems dodgy seems to think 1.) Dunn is more than null with a town lean, 2.) Saying he’s ignoring vedith/magna interactions seems a bit strange based on them being over the accepted misunderstanding. I’d have thought there’d be something to comment on over that, and would like to hear something.

-Reads list 3: Saying about how 182 from Leon was really bad is kind of strange since the 3rd paragraph that Karnos says is scummy is very similar to how I felt about MW. Same comment as before about Dunn.

[Hopkirk]

Leonshade
I was planning to do an iso similar to Karnos, looking for scum motivation etc. I couldn’t find it. Throughoutt Leon brings up good, logical, consistent points that match a lot of what I’ve been thinking. I don’t see incentive for scum Leon to vote 1234 (to be gladed) then change to a vote on mapwolf later. Sticking with 1234 seems like it’d have been a better move (and not partners as why would you vote your partner to be gladed when it wasn’t that likely?), and Leon’s thoughts strike me as legitimate. Also provides a lot of nice comments that I agree with during what I am pretty confident was a TvT vote when he didn’t necessarily need to.
I definitely feel Leon is town, so will eventually be voting Karnos today.

[Hopkirk]

-Only reason for mapwolf scumread is basically setup based (hasn’t really considered setup today). Never really goes beyond this. Also ‘‘123456789 - not scum unless map wolf is scum, in which case he might be scum too’, assuming scum would 100% pick self as glad, but 100% avoid being targeted/picked by glad (if glad is town)’ (208 )

160 .
-Encouraging MW to pick randomly is inconsistent as town MW would be about as likely to pick scum as a vote, but would give less info

My logic was sound. Did you see how close the vote was? Now realize, if Map Wolf is not scum, then two of the potential voters were scum. Unless town was super focused on a real scum and voted that scum by at least a 3 vote majority, scum could manipulate the results via votes to make sure a town player is picked. All things being equal, it's much more likely for a vote to result in a town player being picked.

OTOH, if MW picked (I did not say randomly), there is a chance he could hit scum that can't be artificially reduced by scum votes. It also increases faith in a town MW, as scum would love to use the excuse "oh well my pick flipped town, sorry not my fault I just followed the votes" rather by picking himself he takes responsibility and can be held accountable for the result.

So, I practice what I preach. I picked who I think is scum, without manipulation from potential scum votes or arguments. If he does flip town, it's all on me, I can't fall back and claim I was just going with the will of the many via vote, no I am personally responsible for picking leonshade.


[Not addressing the rest of your post yet because I prefer to post small digestible posts rather than massive walls.]

I don't think scum were 100% focused on avoiding being nominated d1. Also if you think scum was responsible for 12345 being nominated, know MW was town, and had a townread on me (as of read list), then i don't see why you aren't more suspicious of Vedith.

MW's pick is effectively random at that point if only he picks. Fake vote can give info. I'd probably have had a fake vote then picked who i felt like.

How could your pick be manipulated by potential 'scum votes or arguments'. You didn't have the opportunity, but it sounds like you're saying it's good that you didn't do this.

[Hopkirk]

-Read sharing still feels dodgy. Also specifically says doesn’t disagree with other people posting reads, which defeats the purpose of not sharing reads (unless he is the one picked). Sounds like a.) he wants to avoid sharing reads/putting in effort, and b.) is planning to pick self.

Okay, seriously.

I'm glad you think so, but you still haven't done it yourself, despite voting.

Map Wolf is scum because if I was scum I would pick a fellow scum to gladiate on day 1 every time, it's a no-brainer.

123456789 is possibly scum too. I think it would be an incredibly good move for scum to pick self as gladiator AND target. The one that isn't lynched on day 1 is granted "obvious town" status and will eventually win the game as town continually miss-lynches each other. That said, I read him as much more likely to be town, and since the pseudo vote pointed towards him he probably isn't actually scum.

Why the fuck would I post a post saying scum would self pick, and then self pick? Does that make any logical sense to you? Do you really think I'm so bad that I would post exactly what I plan to do in the thread for everyone to see, and then do it?

I'm pretty sure there's a name for this, but i don't know it.
Wifom doesn't quite apply (well it does, but i feel there's a better phrase).
Saying 'what i would do as scum' can come from scum easily.

You didn't self pick day 1. I'm not sure what you mean by this. Are you saying that as mafia you'd never pick you or your partner as mafia just because one of you said doing so would be a good move for mafia?
Also there's the difference that we had the d1 pick flip town, demonstrating mafia didn't pick selves d1 (which makes it safer to do d2 arguably).

'Do you really think I'm so bad that I would post exactly what I plan to do in the thread for everyone to see, and then do it': Not sure why you consider this really bad.


@Numbers: The main reason you put Leon as scum in your reads list seemed to be him switching from scumreading you to scumreading mapwolf. Could you expand on what you found bad about this?

[Hopkirk]

I definitely think the two mafia are in the group (Karnos, Dunn, Vedith) (Partially by PoE). At the moment likely Karnos+Dunn.
I will probably hammer some time tomorrow as i still want to read more, only having glanced at Dunn and Vedith.

[Hopkirk]

Remember town gets 4 mislynches before mylo.

@Frog: The chance his play is legitimate seems a lot lower than Leon being scum. He was also never trying to mislead scum d1, and didn't post reads then. I've also brought up several unanswered points on consistency of today's reads based on setup related matters.

I'll probably hammer tomorrow.

[Hopkirk]

VOTE: Karnos

[Hopkirk]

I currently have a townread on frog and a scumread on Vedith. Not placing a vote until i've done an iso of Vedith, but i'm pretty sure that's where i'll be voting today.

[Hopkirk]

Declaring intent to hammer Vedith. Confident Frog is town, Vedith is probably mafia.

[Hopkirk]

@Dunn: Waiting for Vedith to have any last comments/give up to date reads before hammering. I've had another skim, but i'm not even slightly seeing frog as more likely scum than Vedith.

[Hopkirk]

Frog:
Initial reads list looks good. Very consistent with the reads afterwards.
Past reads list, little non-reactive content. 215 feels a little odd now for example.
A couple of questions:
1.) ‘Gets right down to business helping find Map Wolf a target rather than mire himself in a useless conversation.’ From dunn townread. At this point cooperating with mapwolf/trying to look town to him is optimal for mafia so as not to be nominated. Also trying to help him ‘find a target’ is helping avoid a partner (from scum), so that behaviour definitely isn’t only going to come from town. Dunn’s townread on map doesn’t look too legitimate to me, so it feels more like the scum scenario. This isn’t really a question right now, so I’ll just ask you to respond to this.
2.) I don’t understand the readlist point about Vedith being after Leonshade rather than map wolf. Firstly I’m not sure that actually happened given it was in the first 30 posts, and his interaction with mapwolf didn’t sounds like V was calling M mafia.

Random thought: A mafia v mafia day 1 if neither can be lynched strikes me as a good way of disassociating from a partner without risk.

Conclusion: I had an early townread on Frog too actually, and while there's nothing scummy in his posts, that doesn't necessarily mean town (though doesn't mean mafia either). Doing a Vedith reread/iso at the moment.

[Hopkirk]

Vedith
Early speculation over scum picking selves or not seems a bit out of place and maybe
Vedith’s early posts are frequent and saying something, but don’t feel very helpful.
Unexplained Dunn townread.
Dunn/Vedith potential teaming: Vedith moves his vote to 1234 preventing a Dunn nomination (though he thinks Dunn is town at this stage).
Then almost immediately after the nomination of 1234, which seemed quite opportunist coming after mine, he switches to Dunn/Frog as mafia, and votes MW. Unclear what’s changed about 1234 for him, and this came after me changing my mind too. The Dunn change is unexplained too, and Dunn doesn’t really make any (I think none) posts between a townread becoming a pretty sure scumread.
A lot of his Dunn stuff makes no sense/ doesn’t seem like a town argument. No serious attempts at a Dunn case. Too jokey (both sides).
Reads go all over the place without explination. Doesn’t match the way he’s playing right at the start.
Don’t like his defence today.

Yeah, Vedith/Dunn is still what I think. One is definitely mafia. Both is probable.

[Hopkirk]

@Hopkirk:

What about Vedith's defence are you reading as scummy? He has made zero attempt to cast any suspicion on frog. Even now, as he's looking like the probable lynch, he's telling people to go after Dunn, who you are reading as his scumbuddy. He could sheep Magna on the frog/Dunn scumpair, but instead he's scumreading me for reasons that are dumb, but consistent with the way he's been thinking all game. If Vedith/Dunn is the scumpair, dying here almost guarantees a town victory, yet nothing about Vedith's play suggests that he's concerned about dying.

The lack of defense seems like scum trying something rather than legitimate town.

Why wouldn’t he have simply hammered you then instead of re-thinking and going with me on Frog? I mean realistically I was the only one putting up any resistance to you getting lynched. I see your scenario where this is all a set-up between Leon and Dunn but I’m not sure I see that.

What are your thoughts on 1234?

He's doing it for town cred.
This would have been the plan from Dunn. Argue about me being town, because it's obvious that Dunn is dog meat shortly, lets get as many town out of the way, probably vote up Frog, if not Leon (refer to my earlier comment) and hope he goes for you (which Frog doesn't seem too bright).

If I wasn't so sure on calling Dunn's fakey fakey out I would think numbers is scum, but I'm set that Leon and Dunn are both scum.

Now, because I called it out, they will never be the 2 people up for votes.

To add (for the sake of completeness), there was 2 votes and intent to hammer from me before that.

[Hopkirk]

VOTE: Vedith

[Hopkirk]

if both of the people in the arena were town, I think the game would have ended by now

VOTE: frog

should have known you were trying something yesterday buddying up to me but Vedith's tunnel was too bad

Currently 6 players, 1 lynch takes it to 5 alive with 2 mafia so it's not confirmed one is mafia.

Don't really want to lynch either person picked, would probably lean towards accountant slightly more.

[Hopkirk]

6. 5 tomorrow with max 2 mafia.

[Hopkirk]

NL is fine by me but keep this in mind

if both of the people in the arena were town, I think the game would have ended by now

Either you haven't read this page or you want the mafia to win. Two things wrong.

1.) a.) You picked frog, b.) you say you are happy with a no lynch, c.) no lynch lets mafia just kill one of us (could be yourself which makes no sense as a choice over frog) then we go to the next day.

2.) It's been clearly stated multiple times (3-4) this page that we can afford one mislynch. Do you not understand or do you disagree?

[Hopkirk]

Also VOTE: Accountant

[Hopkirk]

I dislike how accountant hasn't admitted misunderstanding something. I don't see why they thought we should even consider swapping one of our lynches for a scum night kill.

[Hopkirk]

UNVOTE: Accountant

Accountant is acting weird but probably isn't scum tbh. Magna makes sense.

[Hopkirk]

Seems like Frog Dunn.

[Hopkirk]

@Hopkirk:

Do you have finished games with Dunn & with Magna? I'd also like to know your read on Magna.

I'd still like an answer to the Dunn part of this question.

I haven't. Due to a break to focus on irl mafia i literally didn't post (or read games) between Dunn joining and this game starting.
I would have said at the start if i did. The 'and' accountant used referred to separate games, one played with Dunn, a different one played with me.

[Hopkirk]

Most likely scenario is Frog/Dunn based on POE. I do not think Leon is scum. Magna and Accountant are unlikely to be scum.

I can't really motivate myself to do more now as i think we have enough mislynches to win.
Assuming Dunn and/or Frog are mafia (at least one) and Leon is town there isn't really any scenario where town can actually lose (except for one unlikely one which basically involves scum actually claiming).

Will give frog a chance to post before hammering.

[Hopkirk]

@Dunn: If magna is town and either you or frog is mafia (and lynched as i'm assuming) then town gets enough lynches to kill everyone except two players. I'm pretty sure Leon is town so him+me.

VOTE: Frog

[Hopkirk]

Lets get this over and dunn with.

VOTE: Dunnstral

[Hopkirk]

I'd say Accountant>Magna>Leon right now. The space between accountant/magna being significantly higher than the space between magna/Leon.

VOTE: Accountant

Yes. At the moment i do think you replaced in and gladed your own buddy. Why are you phrasing that like it's implausible?

[Hopkirk]

If you look through old games you'll see i always (or virtually always) give intent to hammer and wait at least a few hours before hammering. This applies as town or scum so isn't related to alignment.
I thought 2 of Karnos/Vedith/Dunn were mafia a few days ago. I definitely had bad reads, which means the mafia were both probably my town reads- frog being one, Leon/1234 being another (as these were my top 3 townreads).
I'd say less coating, more that i townread 2 scum (frog+whoever the last one is) and scumread 3 town. Mafia didn't have any reason to challenge me until today.

I voted accountant initially yesterday before i realized i was wrong on frog. I also said before that the optimal scenario is to found one townread then as long as both of you survive to lylo town wins. I thought i had, so haven't really put much effort into the game recently.
If everyone thinks i'm most likely scum and plans to vote me tomorrow at this point then surely it doesn't matter who dies today. Considering the alternative, that i am town, then me picking the lynch today is a better scenario.
If not for the 'panic pick' line i'd still be sure Leon was town. Now i'm more 70-20-10 confidence.

Account case i will deal with later.

[Hopkirk]

At that point and the previous day i was absolutely sure Dunn was mafia and was going to lynch him the next day. I count that as giving intent.
Also i had no reason to care how it looked as i expected the game to end right away. If i was mafia wouldn't i need to care as it'd know there'd be 2 more days?

[Hopkirk]

Hopkirk is selectively choosing which cases against him to respond to

You didn't make a case, you made a comment. It's literally impossible to substantially respond.
Leon didn't make a case.
Responded to every point magna made.

Care to clarify what you mean here?

[Hopkirk]

Early stuff on 1234 was probably scum rather than bad town.
- Stuff like doesn’t care who is gladiated. (35)
- Early aggression beyond what seems appropriate. (50+56)
- Attitude to mapwolf (51/54). Logic about what scum should do and similar stuff makes little sense. Also attempts to do the townslip thing.
- (86)- very hostile response to me attacking. Also poor on the mapwolf thing.
A little after this point I stopped suspecting him because I thought he was bad town not scum. I was probably wrong there.
- Changes read on me (131) slightly when I stop attacking him.
- 163- townread on me at this point after I stop attacking him. 173- seems to have a strong townread on me. This readlist doesn’t seem completely legitimate- eg he says he didn’t like mapwolf’s public votecount but earlier said that was the most town thing about MW. Quite a few inconsistencies/unnaturally developing reads.
- 187- first real interaction with frog’s slot- wants powerdown to participate. In retrospect a possible signal to a partner. It should have been obvious at this point PD wasn’t playing, and it seems a bit odd to signal him like this.
- 212- argument with Frog. Frog votes- which feels strange as bussing your partner day 1 doesn’t seem like the greatest move (though prior votes were 2-0 and there was no other real call for a 1234 lynch so it’s still plausible). That list of 9 seems pretty strange/overreactive, maybe trying to make a fake argument.
- 298- I don’t see why he thought karnos was lynchbait. This was never explained. Also still seems to scumread Karnos a lot here which doesn’t make a lot of sense. References this but dodges explaining.
- 299- his Frog read seems to have gone from a scumread where he’s making about 18 points against Frog to a slight townread on him. Doesn’t make a lot of sense. Maybe they spoke overnight about not bussing.
- It feels like he’s defending Karnos far too much for someone he has a strong scumread on. Not the kind of defence that means no Karnos lynch though.

---accountant joins here

- Early stuff looks like she + Frog decided they were going to bus. Frog pick choice never well explained. Feels like she wanted towncred at a point it would basically let her coast.
- 518- difficulty seeing dunn as scum.
- Entire day is variations of ‘lynch frog’ with no reasoning.
I’d like to see why Accountant thought frog was scum actually. I agreed it was likely, but accountant never explains this. Specifically avoids it a lot too.
- Mafia had to bus Frog as he got lynched. There wasn’t any anti-accountant stuff so that means Frog’s partner was planning to bus and didn’t try to defend a partner. At that point picking yourself as glad to bus is the best place on the bus to be.
- Frog does give up without a real struggle. Looks like a manufactured bus.
- 584- Now sure Dunn is frog’s partner. Looks like she’s just going for something everyone supports. Read change here is unnatural.
- She literally doesn’t have any substance.
- Chooses not to explain Hop scum. Literally the only reason I have any doubts is basically because other players seem to be buying her play.

Frog interactions generally
- 1234 getting majority seemed to be due to frog's slot not being here. Strange appeal from 1234.
- Frog picked Vedith over 1234 to glad.
- Frog seemed to have a scumread on 1234 but never followed up much.
- Accountant/Frog looked like a bus.

Leon town more than Magna. Now more like 80-15-5.

@Magna: Why do you want to so me make a case on accountant but not accountant make one on me?
Also any responses to what I was saying?
UNVOTE: Accountant
I think accountant is scum, but don’t want to let magna quickhammer right now just in case.

[Hopkirk]

I am voting you, just without putting my vote on you. I just don't want night instantly.

There's no way I'd vote Leon over you unless he basically quoted himself and frog discussing picks in the mafia QT.

[Hopkirk]

'scum-read every post both members of the slot': This is definitely not true.
Not sure where you get 'I didn't have tons of opportunity to hammer him if I was scum looking for a mislynch.' You could have justified it by saying something like 'Oh well i've got what i wanted from Hopkirk so that's what i needed, now i'll vote accountant etc, hammers'. Actually it probably wouldn't make a difference if you did that, but i don't want you to skip over responding.
I'll wait for my questions to be answered.

You seem to be playing today for tomorrow. I haven't even heard your preference on Leon/Accountant and it looks like you might be trying to bring the most likely person to lynch me into tomorrow rather than scumhunting today.

[Hopkirk]

Why are you stalling making a case on your strongest scumread

Uh, are you actually incapable of reading?

Town Hopkirk here would be overjoyed by Magna's question. He'd be all "im glad you asked that!! Let me show you the top 10000 reasons why accountant is scum and we can murder this scumlord together!!" instead he disengages deflects dodges

This isnt town mindset

Scum mindset is to tunnel like you're suggesting. As town i'm not 100% sure.

[Hopkirk]

'Let me show you the top 10000 reasons why accountant is scum and we can murder this scumlord together' really doesn't make sense for you to say. How do i have 10000 reasons when i thought it was Dunn?

[Hopkirk]

610.

[Hopkirk]

Also why aren't you making a case on me? I don't really feel like responding to hypocritical low effort posts.

[Hopkirk]

once again you're dodging the question

you claim to not want to respond to my posts, ignoring the fact that

you were the one who said you had a case on me

and failed to deliver, and that magna also wants the case and you're ignoring him as well

lynch this scumlord immediatley

Quote post where i say i have comprehensive case. I gave my thoughts.
And you haven't given a case. You've made a weak comment.

[Hopkirk]

I have nothing to post as there has been 0 content in the last 31 hours.

[Hopkirk]

2 people on black, 1 shitposting = nothing to respond to.

[Hopkirk]

‘Still doesn’t explain why, even if you were sure the game was over, you felt the need to hammer before half the players left in the game had even posted.’
This doesn’t make sense. What point is there in waiting for other people to post when I’m sure Dunn is mafia? The game is over at that point. Are you seriously saying you think the town thing to do when you can hammer the last scum is to wait and spend time trying to hammer in the tawniest way possible?

‘If you are so overwhelmingly certain Accountant is scum (which your hey Accountant is 80%) why the sudden worry about going to night quickly. You weren’t shy going to Night early being sure on Dunn?’
Because I was much more sure on Dunn than accountant. That should be pretty evident. Why would I want to give a potential mafia (1/5 isn’t 0, it is significant) a chance to quick hammer when I don’t want them to.

‘In fact that you dropped a vote right out of the gate today shows you initially weren’t worried about going to Night quickly either.’
You got a lot more scummy, which means I need more time to think today.

‘See this isn’t an answer. You posted your vote at 599. I posted at 601, 602, 604 and 609. You then unvoted at 610.’
This is blatant misrepresentation. I said I removed the vote because I was getting more suspicious of you, so didn’t want to give you the chance to hammer, are you’re pretending I unvoted because I didn’t want accountant hammered.
You are actually saying there’s no way my read on you could change based on your posts which is ridiculous. I even laid out what I saw as optimal over 2 in game days ago, so you know I’d be voting accountant if Dunn turned out to be town.

‘In fact I could have not laid out who I thought was the best candidate for scum (you) and just gone with the flow.’
And get lynched tomorrow? You’re intentionally leaving that out.

‘Actually playing tomorrow for today seems to be exactly what you are did today – Accountant had already come into the thread and called you scum. Leon, despite his apparent misgivings, did not gladiate you. Thus you immediately drop a vote on Accountant and begin the process of buddying up to Leonshade as hard as you can after I also express that you are my top scum read.’
So you’re intentionally ignoring that I’ve been townreading Leon since about day 2 and said 2 days ago that if Leon is town then the optimal move = Lynch frog, lynch Dunn, lynch Accountant/magna, Lynch other? You seem to have realized here that not scumreading me loses you the game.
‘Your little PBPA case on Accountant tries to peddle the Frog gladiate as a bus when that doesn’t make sense.’
Yes it does. There was no resistance from Frog’s partner in what was basically lylo. An accountant lynch followed by a Dunn lynch (since more than enough people would have voted Dunn) would be a mafia game. Mafia would try and oppose that unless they planned to bus.
Scum’s options that night.
1.) Nominate Dunn (doesn’t change anything really)
2.) Nominate anyone except Dunn/accountant and Dunn is nominated.
If either of these are picked it moves into the next day at 3v2. Town needs to find two town to win.
3.) Nominate scum who then picks partner. This gives whoever survives major towncred and they only need to survive through 2 votes+ Dunn.
Basically Frog/accountant lynched-Dunn lynched-X lynched-X lynched in lylo. As long as 1 of the 3 town doesn’t think it’s likely mafia bussed their partner at that point then mafia wins. They only need to convince one town and nominate well. This makes it pretty much the best plan.
Please explain why it ‘doesn’t make sense’ though. You say ‘Accountant replacing in overnight as scum has a clean slate and carte blanche to choose whoever they want as target’ doesn’t cut it because you’re assuming that scum accountant would nominate himself and overlooking the fact that it could involve being lynched. There is no way at that point scum would nominate themselves unless to bus.

‘As I have previously pointed out all the momentum was for a Vedith lynch. He doesn’t have to come in and follow me on Frog when you’ve already made it pretty clear you want a Vedith lynch also. He could have taken his time as scum, pretending to be digging into ISOs and not committing to frog as scum, and just run out the clock until you dropped your Vedith vote. He didn’t do that. He chose to vote Frog with me and make it a 2-2 tie. That’s again pretty stupid play from scum as someone already on the Vedith wagon might have been swayed and come over to vote frog.’

This was after I’d given intent to hammer, you realize that right?
It makes sense from you as scum to put down vote 1, but I agree that it doesn’t for Leon as I think he’s town still.

‘Meanwhile you’ve yet to reasonably address the fact that you didn’t vote Frog as the deciding vote Day 3.’

What do you mean reasonably address it? Why aren’t you asking accountant why (his slot) voted Vedith. I said at the time- I had a scumread on Vedith, and you’re now saying I’m scum because I got that wrong? That’s either confirmation bias or scum making a case.

‘So I’m in the position of seeing you as scum wanting to shape endgame to how you see fit today and am in the "Damned if I Do and Damned if I Don’t" position. We have to agree on a lynch today for it to happen.’

Which is what you are trying to do even more so. I voted quickly, you’ve spent the day not taking a position on either and spending it instead trying to set up the lynch you want tomorrow.

‘So I have the choice of voting with you so you can bring you favored player between Leon or Accountant to endgame (which given your buddying is clearly Leon) or don’t vote with you and end up not lynching which lets you Nightkill whoever of myself or Accountant you think least serves you tomorrow surviving.’
If you are town and think I am mafia then this isn’t even a choice. Why would you even consider letting mafia have a nightkill in this scenario. That’s not a question of two ‘bad’ scenarios, it’s more comparable to a papercut vs dismemberment.

[Hopkirk]

Did not turn out how i expected so reposting with formatting.

‘Still doesn’t explain why, even if you were sure the game was over, you felt the need to hammer before half the players left in the game had even posted.’

This doesn’t make sense. What point is there in waiting for other people to post when I’m sure Dunn is mafia? The game is over at that point. Are you seriously saying you think the town thing to do when you can hammer the last scum is to wait and spend time trying to hammer in the tawniest way possible?

‘If you are so overwhelmingly certain Accountant is scum (which your hey Accountant is 80%) why the sudden worry about going to night quickly. You weren’t shy going to Night early being sure on Dunn?’

Because I was much more sure on Dunn than accountant. That should be pretty evident. Why would I want to give a potential mafia (1/5 isn’t 0, it is significant) a chance to quick hammer when I don’t want them to.

‘In fact that you dropped a vote right out of the gate today shows you initially weren’t worried about going to Night quickly either.’

You got a lot more scummy, which means I need more time to think today.

‘See this isn’t an answer. You posted your vote at 599. I posted at 601, 602, 604 and 609. You then unvoted at 610.’

This is blatant misrepresentation. I said I removed the vote because I was getting more suspicious of you, so didn’t want to give you the chance to hammer, are you’re pretending I unvoted because I didn’t want accountant hammered.
You are actually saying there’s no way my read on you could change based on your posts which is ridiculous. I even laid out what I saw as optimal over 2 in game days ago, so you know I’d be voting accountant if Dunn turned out to be town.

‘In fact I could have not laid out who I thought was the best candidate for scum (you) and just gone with the flow.’

And get lynched tomorrow? You’re intentionally leaving that out.

‘Actually playing tomorrow for today seems to be exactly what you are did today – Accountant had already come into the thread and called you scum. Leon, despite his apparent misgivings, did not gladiate you. Thus you immediately drop a vote on Accountant and begin the process of buddying up to Leonshade as hard as you can after I also express that you are my top scum read.’

So you’re intentionally ignoring that I’ve been townreading Leon since about day 2 and said 2 days ago that if Leon is town then the optimal move = Lynch frog, lynch Dunn, lynch Accountant/magna, Lynch other? You seem to have realized here that not scumreading me loses you the game.

‘Your little PBPA case on Accountant tries to peddle the Frog gladiate as a bus when that doesn’t make sense.’

Yes it does. There was no resistance from Frog’s partner in what was basically lylo. An accountant lynch followed by a Dunn lynch (since more than enough people would have voted Dunn) would be a mafia game. Mafia would try and oppose that unless they planned to bus.
Scum’s options that night.
1.) Nominate Dunn (doesn’t change anything really)
2.) Nominate anyone except Dunn/accountant and Dunn is nominated.
If either of these are picked it moves into the next day at 3v2. Town needs to find two town to win.
3.) Nominate scum who then picks partner. This gives whoever survives major towncred and they only need to survive through 2 votes+ Dunn.
Basically Frog/accountant lynched-Dunn lynched-X lynched-X lynched in lylo. As long as 1 of the 3 town doesn’t think it’s likely mafia bussed their partner at that point then mafia wins. They only need to convince one town and nominate well. This makes it pretty much the best plan.
Please explain why it ‘doesn’t make sense’ though. You say ‘Accountant replacing in overnight as scum has a clean slate and carte blanche to choose whoever they want as target’ doesn’t cut it because you’re assuming that scum accountant would nominate himself and overlooking the fact that it could involve being lynched. There is no way at that point scum would nominate themselves unless to bus.

‘As I have previously pointed out all the momentum was for a Vedith lynch. He doesn’t have to come in and follow me on Frog when you’ve already made it pretty clear you want a Vedith lynch also. He could have taken his time as scum, pretending to be digging into ISOs and not committing to frog as scum, and just run out the clock until you dropped your Vedith vote. He didn’t do that. He chose to vote Frog with me and make it a 2-2 tie. That’s again pretty stupid play from scum as someone already on the Vedith wagon might have been swayed and come over to vote frog.’

This was after I’d given intent to hammer, you realize that right?
It makes sense from you as scum to put down vote 1, but I agree that it doesn’t for Leon as I think he’s town still.

‘Meanwhile you’ve yet to reasonably address the fact that you didn’t vote Frog as the deciding vote Day 3.’

What do you mean reasonably address it? Why aren’t you asking accountant why (his slot) voted Vedith. I said at the time- I had a scumread on Vedith, and you’re now saying I’m scum because I got that wrong? That’s either confirmation bias or scum making a case.

‘So I’m in the position of seeing you as scum wanting to shape endgame to how you see fit today and am in the "Damned if I Do and Damned if I Don’t" position. We have to agree on a lynch today for it to happen.’

Which is what you are trying to do even more so. I voted quickly, you’ve spent the day not taking a position on either and spending it instead trying to set up the lynch you want tomorrow.

‘So I have the choice of voting with you so you can bring you favored player between Leon or Accountant to endgame (which given your buddying is clearly Leon) or don’t vote with you and end up not lynching which lets you Nightkill whoever of myself or Accountant you think least serves you tomorrow surviving.’

If you are town and think I am mafia then this isn’t even a choice. Why would you even consider letting mafia have a nightkill in this scenario. That’s not a question of two ‘bad’ scenarios, it’s more comparable to a papercut vs dismemberment.

[Hopkirk]

Missed a /, but it's obvious enough what is what.
More 70-30-1 now.
@Magna: Can you explain what town motivation you see in accoutant? How is refusing to explain reasoning etc pro-town play?

Accountant is either scum or VI intentionally playing anti-town.

[Hopkirk]

Huh, i could have sworn there wasn't a gladiate at 3 players left.

'Lynch me today. When I flip town, whoever gets gladiator gladiates Hopkirk. Then lynch him. If he gets gladiator, he's auto picked, so it's easy to lynch.'

Problem with this is that the optimal position is lynching both accountant and magna.
The only thing magna seems to be trying to do today is convince Leon, the third person in lylo, that i'm scum.

'pbpa'- expand please?

' whether I refuse to explain reasoning or not': Uh... scum can do more than 1 scummy thing in the game. Not explaining reasoning/not giving it is an additional scummy thing.

[Hopkirk]

To expand on the why you lynch: If you are town you should assume you'd get killed at night if i'm mafia. Unless you are literally 100% sure accountant is town then you should lynch him, even if you are 100% the only difference becomes whether you want it to be you+me+leon or Accountant+me+Leon in lylo as obviously scum me wouldn't kill either Hopkirk or Leon.

So to even say that's a dilemma means you think that accountant is both of the following:
a.) As confirmed town to you are as you are to yourself and
b.) Better than you at mafia.

[Hopkirk]

You ignored all of my questions and the most important points. I could respond to what you said but it's a waste of time.
I looked through your post and there was nothing that actually

needs

responding to.
You know that if you don't vote accountant then you'll be lynched in lylo. No reason for me to respond to anything except what Leon says/asks at this point.

I also have no idea why accountant plays mafia.

[Hopkirk]

Please stop making me thing someone's said something worth reading.

[Hopkirk]

thats why i said it was a scum claim which he just dodged and pretended like it wasn't there

What respond do you expect to quoting a post and saying 'this is a scumclaim'?

[Hopkirk]

You ignored all of my questions and the most important points. I could respond to what you said but it's a waste of time.
I looked through your post and there was nothing that actually needs responding to.

You know that if you don't vote accountant then you'll be lynched in lylo. No reason for me to respond to anything except what Leon says/asks at this point.

I actually want to here from Leon also - but the bolded is basically claiming everything I've said about you today is correct - buddying up to Leon is your only hope.

Now it's literally 50-50.
I explained why he has to lynch, he chose not to quote that, one of the important points he chose to ignore.
Not lynching as town is a scum claim. Doing so is LITERALLY saying that you think accountant has a higher chance of being town than you yourself have.
The fact accountant doesn't acknowledge this means one of you is scum and one is a VI. Accountant is probably more likely to be the VI.

What likely happens from here:
Magna forces no lynch, kills Leon, game ends. This is what he wants to happen.

[Hopkirk]

Also it's true, no matter what happens here leon either dies or decides.

Accountant lynched= either game win or night. Me/magna crossnominate, Leon lynches.
No lynch 1- I am killed, doesn't happen.
No lynch 2- Accounant killed (Magna scum)- Leon picks.
No lynch 3- Magna killed (Ac scum)- Leon picks.
No lynch 4- Leon killed, Hopkirk lynch. Happens with M/A scum.

If Leon is town and thinks i am town then town wins. That simple.

[Hopkirk]

Every word is true and dazzlingly town.

[Hopkirk]

You are explicitly saying someone whose role pm you have not seen has a 100% chance of being scum. Not taking even a 0.1% chance is scum.

I've responded to your last point. You ignore my response then say I haven't responded.

Not planning to post again until Leon does.

[Hopkirk]

You are explicitly saying someone whose role pm you have not seen has a 100% chance of being scum. Not taking even a 0.1% chance is scum.

Never said that and the misrepresentation is bad.

You said that you are not planning to lynch accountant. That means you are saying that, explicitly. How many more times do i have to explain that? You've ignored the explanations repeatedly. What do you not fucking understand, or which fucking part to you not agree with?

Town must prefer to be in lylo them-self above any other player unless they are confirmed at the level of by cop in non bastard game. The only reason to not to lynch is because you either don't understand this or are using accountant for something.

Ah, the rules say that V/LA has no impact on prods. This is going to be a bit of a problem, as I'll be gone 15th-20th. We can't really play around it, either, the deadline being the way it is. I should have limited WIFI, though, so I think I'll at least be able to get a pick in, provided I am gladiated.

@Hopkirk:

I've read everything thus far, except your PBA. Accountant's behavior today looks, to me, very similar to the way Vedith played D3, which led to their lynch. What I'm referring to is their lack of self-defense and the will to spend their time telling people to lynch their scumtell instead of finding reasons to lynch the other gladiate. This has not stopped Accountant from looking like the likely lynch, either, so it's not like they're using it as a weird scum gambit. Hell, it got Vedith lynched, so it would be a bad gambit to begin with.

This is especially concerning since you hammered Vedith after I defended him on the same grounds. Can you explain how you read Accountant's behavior? If scum, why aren't they trying to get me lynched?

Firstly i'm also going to be V/LA from 16th-18th with possibly 0 internet access for all of that. We could pause the game or something.

Regarding accountant the play is explained by him trying to coast by on towncred from nominating then lynching a partner. He doesn't want to say anything that is highly challengable. Also Vedith seemed to have given up, accountant is just... flying low isn't quite the right term but something like that.
Accountant doesn't need to get you lynched if scum, and if town knows that i am not going to switch.
idk what a pba is.

That being said, i now think magna is more likely scum than accountant by a bit.

Either way though there is no reason not to lynch accountant.

[Hopkirk]

Because as town I wouldn't know that if we lynch town there's another day. Despite going through things 3 days ago I apparently don't know that. This game isn't worth wasting any more time on, town is dumb and doesn't respond to posts anyway. No intention to check thread again until lynch or prod being due.

[Hopkirk]

Magna and frog btw. I got it right at least.

[Hopkirk]

If magna isn't lynching can we just go to deadline?

[Hopkirk]

Because as town I wouldn't know that if we lynch town there's another day. Despite going through things 3 days ago I apparently don't know that. This game isn't worth wasting any more time on, town is dumb and doesn't respond to posts anyway. No intention to check thread again until lynch or prod being due.

Why would Town not know that. It's pretty clear given that the role PMs are publicly posted so we that the Mafia's wincon is not different from the standard - when the Mafia numbers equal Town. So there logically has to be a tomorrow unless we eliminate the Mafia today.

Frankly given all the times you've said "MoI is playing for tomorrow" it is pretty clear you fully understood that there was a tomorrow if the lynch today is not scum.

--

So now that Leon has weighed in I feel better about today. I'm not particularly interested in lynching either of you today since I don't see you as Mafia but if Accountant is willing to eat the rope I'll go along with it.

I said x then demonstrated x was sarcastic by showing I had done the reverse of x multiple times.
You respond to that by saying 'so you about x'
Town cannot be as consistently dumb as that.

Playing for tomorrow- I began day with a vote on the more likely mafia. You began by attacking the person you wanted to lynch tomorrow.
You are the luckiest mafia I can remember considering the town you got.

[Hopkirk]

@Leon, look at what magna excluded from that quote and tell me he's town.

[Hopkirk]

I don't have to admit those things are scummy because all are town modified.
Half the town thought vedith was Scummier than frog. Hammering someone who's your top scumread for 2 days isn't 'obv mafia'. If I was willing to vote frog as scum i'd have been glad as I demonstrated that is optimal (though i'd kill Dunn first).

[Hopkirk]

Also regarding the quote- either he's been misrepresenting me before as I demonstrated, or when I showed he was misrepping me he ignored that completely. That is a scum tunnel intentionally either misrepresenting or he's not read posts that he's calling scummy- which is also scum.

[Hopkirk]

Is there any way we can get this done before 2/3 of players go on v/la?

[Hopkirk]

Welcome to Micro 629: The Arena

Players:

1. Dunnstral
   
   
2. MagnaofIllusion
   *
   
3. karnos
   
   
4. Hopkirk
   *
   
5. Accountant

   123456789
   
   
6. Leonshade
   
   
7. Map Wolf
   
   
8. Vedith
   
   
9. frog

   PowerDown**

(

bold

shows player has confirmed, * denote prods)

Alive:

1. MagnaofIllusion
   
2. Hopkirk
   
3. Accountant
   
4. Leonshade

Spoiler: Dead

Map Wolf, lynched Day 1

karnos, lynched Day 2
Vedith, lynched Day 3

frog, lynched Day 4

Dunnstral, lynched Day 5

Spoiler: Modkilled

Please don’t get modkilled

Events

D1 gladiator is chosen | VC 1.0 | VC 1.1 | VC 1.2 | VC 1.3
D1 target is chosen | VC 1.4|VC 1.5|VC 1.6|frog replaces PowerDown |VC 1.7|VC 1.8 | VC 1.9 | Map Wolf is lynched
D2 gladiator chosen | D2 target chosen | VC 2.0 | VC 2.1 | VC 2.2 | VC 2.3 | VC 2.4a | VC 2.4b | VC 2.5 | VC 2.6 | karnos is lynched
D3 gladiator is chosen | D3 target is chosen | VC 3.0 | VC 3.1 | VC 3.2 | VC 3.3 | VC 3.4 | Vedith is lynched
Accountant replaces 123456789 | D4 gladiator is chosen | D4 target is chosen | VC 4.0

Assuming there's a night we can submit picks in advance.

[Hopkirk]

Unintended quote due to phone.

[Hopkirk]

Assuming there's a night we can submit picks in advance.

Are you honestly suggesting that Accountant as the last scum positively confirmed he was OK with being lynched today given that ends the game 100% while him not agreeing to it could lead to possible No Lynch?

Probably town since you are more likely last town.
That's why I said assuming. It's likely, but not confirmed.
You'd also attack me if I said the exact same sentence without the assuming. 'ah so you know accountant isn't mafia' is what you'dsay.

How do you define assuming?

[Hopkirk]

I've been online waiting for host to move to night/wondering why thread was still open. Turns out I was mot voting

VOTE: accountant.

[Hopkirk]

I am on v/la for most of that time with no access and Leon said he had some access...

[Hopkirk]

See if magna was scum here he could easily end the day then win since leon wants to kill hop

Everyone wants to kill hop.
We either get a mafia kill then hop lynch or accountant lynch then hop lynch. 2 lynches are always better than one here.

[Hopkirk]

Yes he does. He gets a kill and a pick. This gives him 2 options not one.

Also it's abdurd to say I'm waiting for vla when
I am on one too
There no reason to replace, I asked to pause game too
I clearly want the lynch
Deadline is before lynch
Leon can submit whenever

[Hopkirk]

Pretty annoyed he's claiming 'boarderline illegal' while trying to misrep. Isn't that not allowed.

[Hopkirk]

How the hell do 2 town accept your argument that a night kill will not be on town 100% of the time.

[Hopkirk]

If Leon is replaced them so am I. You know perfectly well a mod that isn't replacing 2/3 of the game.
We can even pick in advance.

[Hopkirk]

Also if 3 people see me as Mafia all you day supplies equally to town or scum hop.

[Hopkirk]

Always fucking great to see a game throw after you've been playing a game for about a month.

[Hopkirk]

V/LA until 19th. Might have a little access on the 18th possibly.

[Hopkirk]

Well that was predictable.

[Hopkirk]

...

[Hopkirk]

Either
a.) Accountant is scum who waited a while to hammer (i don't think this is possible due to win con though).
b.) Magna is scum doing the scummy thing.

[Hopkirk]

Or c.) I forgot i was scum and nobody reminded me and all picks were made randomly.

[Hopkirk]

If not you then magna. I don't troll endgame.

[Hopkirk]

At the start this looked scum sided, but playing it it feels more weighed towards town. Is there anything (theorywise) on this?

[Hopkirk]

I have no idea how two town fell for it at the end.

[Hopkirk]

Shame you didn't feel like saying why isn't it.

[Hopkirk]

In the previous day you didn't seem very willing to discuss things so there wasn't much i could do to change it.

[Hopkirk]

First- picked by town.
Second- I'd have considered a bus around then with how the game was going.
Third- he was picked again by town.

It's only clear if you don't think they're a chance of a bus when a bus is a good move. Two noms from town- 1 d1 and 1 when meaningless.