Micro 752: Mafia for the Vengeful Redux (Game Over)

[BTD6_maker]

This game seems rather scumsided. There's a 60% chance of a Mafia win. It's strange that Equinox used this version rather than the updated Vengeful, which is perfectly balanced.

[BTD6_maker]

I reckon it's Jester and BTD. They've both made only pretty pointless theory posts, avoiding any sniff of conflict.

Is making an IIoA accusation Townish or scummy? I am counting you as making the accusation as The Jester implied that it was null whereas you seemed to imply that it was scummy.

I strongly suspect that there is no actual truth behind IIoA and that someone accused of it is as likely as random to be Town or scum. But is it scummy to be making such a claim? There are certainly many people who believe it to be a genuine tell. However, scum may use it as an easy way to cast shade on someone or an excuse to scumread them.

Of course, all this is incredibly weak. What I am saying is possible but it is probably very unlikely. However, I do think that this will help in getting out of our effective RVS, in the absence of a real RVS.

Discuss.

[BTD6_maker]

In very early effective RVS, there's no serious conflict to analyse.

I can understand your point, but it would only apply when there is serious analysis to be done. In that case, pure IIoA seems very rare and even then I don't have the statistics. But it's mostly used against people who post both I and A.

In Surreptitious, I did pretty much only IIoA, only it turned out to be finding a breaking strategy for the Town win. Likewise, I posted mostly I (but some A) in Micro 729, in which I again found a breaking strategy.

[BTD6_maker]

1) lynch cuphead
if town, cuphead shoot fish

2) lynch nexus
if town, nexus shoot cuphead

thoughts

Are you trying something similar to the Mastermind of Sin pairing method?

[BTD6_maker]

Are you trying something similar to the Mastermind of Sin pairing method?

i dont know what that is so i'll just say yes

Basically, MoS divides the other two players into two pairs, trying to keep scum in separate pairs. Then, if a Townie is lynched in one pair, they kill the other person in their pair.

[BTD6_maker]

Doesn't look like that - EP hasn't put people in pairs.

I tend to think that declaring/directing shots is a bad idea. Scum have quite a lot of power to manipulate this lynch - so we don't want them to be able to manipulate the vengekill as well.

It's not exactly pairing, but it's similar.

That's the main issue. If MoS was scum, they could manipulate it and thus gain an advantage. That's why they were often lynched for pairing.

Is suggesting directing shots scummy? On the one hand, it certainly benefits scum to do so. On the other, Town will, of course, seek to have their scumreads dead.

[BTD6_maker]

That's the main issue. If MoS was scum, they could manipulate it and thus gain an advantage. That's why they were often lynched for pairing.

Is suggesting directing shots scummy? On the one hand, it certainly benefits scum to do so. On the other, Town will, of course, seek to have their scumreads dead.

I don't think suggesting directing shots or picking pairings is particularly scummy; if you can dictate "lynch A, and they shoot B if town", that's good for you whatever your alignment. I do think it's a bad idea to

follow

those suggestions, and a bad idea to be super-obvious about who you are going to shoot.

When you say "[MoS] was often lynched for pairing" - do you think that EP is scummy here?

Nexus: Why EP?

For your first point, I said that. While I think it overall benefits scum, I did say that each individual Town has an interest in directing shots towards their scumreads so it is good for Town.

MoS was often lynched for pairing but I don't think EP is scummy. If EP had been MoS and made pairings I would have classed that as scummy.

The difference is that MoS is obviously extremely familiar with the pairing method and knows that it can easily be used by scum to their own benefit, so if they were scum they know that they could try to gain that advantage. If Town, they probably won't try it because they know that they have got lynched many times in the past. It's a small advantage for Town if Town does it (the exact advantage depends on the strength of their reads) but it's a large advantage for scum if scum do it.

[BTD6_maker]

EP's OMGUS makes me think he's likely town (or just possibly bussing). Scum would really want to avoid getting into a 1v1 with a townie.

BTD hasn't done anything much; he's just made some theory-ish posts which kind of hint EP is scum without actually committing to any kind of read.

VOTE: BTD

actually yeah
when you think about it-- unless we've reached a consensus, we can all agree as town to not hammer anyone until that point. right? that's clearly benefit for town.

then we can also work under the maxim that anyone that quickhammers town without a consensus is scum and they can get shot. so no one will quickhammer.

+1 - anyone who quickhammers should be shot in the face. Don't quickhammer.

Bear in mind that this is still early Day 1 with very little to go on. I've seen RVS longer than this.

[BTD6_maker]

VOTE: nexus

actually yeah
when you think about it-- unless we've reached a consensus, we can all agree as town to not hammer anyone until that point. right? that's clearly benefit for town.

then we can also work under the maxim that anyone that quickhammers town without a consensus is scum and they can get shot. so no one will quickhammer.

so getting votes out is a good way to progress the game

At this stage it seems as though you had a genuine (i.e. not simply RVS) scumread on Nexus. Is this simply due to Nexus asserting that you were scum (which seems to be implied) or were there other factors?

[BTD6_maker]

hmmm
actually maybe
UNVOTE:

but "BTD flip gives us jack shit" is simultaneously very wrong and very scummy to me

This post shows cautiousness. You clearly scumread The Jester, but unvote them. I agree that The Jester's comment is false and not helping the game. Flips are very important, especially in a game like this. But is it more likely to be said by scum or bad Town?

Obviously, scum do indeed have a motive. If The Jester is scum, they want to push the Nexus wagon rather than my wagon. However, Town can very often be very wrong indeed. I would say that this in particular is perhaps more likely to come from Town, as scum may want to say something actively about scumminess (that Nexus is more scummy than me, for example) so as to avoid looking like they have no reasons.

Anyway, you are cautious in this post. Is this Town cautiousness or scum cautiousness? I am inclined to say that this is Town cautiousness (after all, Town have a vested interest in not mislynching too early) as you are clearly stating your scumread and unvoting whereas I would think that scum are more likely to care about not appearing to be voting their strongest scumread (when only they would be voting) and so would either shift votes to someone else or just remain on the wagon. However, this point is much weaker in this game as Town are not expected to be voting immediately, at least not until they are confident. Lynching here would ideally require a broad consensus so cautiousness would seem more reasonable and scum would get away with it much more easily.

[BTD6_maker]

Poor excuse. The game is moving at a slower pace so we definitely should be out of rvs now.

The game is moving at a slower pace. Doesn't that mean it takes more time, not less, to get out of RVS?

[BTD6_maker]

Right now, I do not have clear scumreads, only very weak Townreads. This could suggest that Fishythefish and Nexus are weak scumreads, but of course I will need a lot more evidence. This is why I ask questions.

The Jester, what did you mean by that comment that my flip "gives us jack shit"? Are you referring exclusively to the contents of my posts, or more generally about the entire game? If the latter, it's obviously false. My flip will bring a lot of information to the game as a whole. Any flip does. But if it's the former, it seems possible, but even then I would prefer it if you explained your reasoning.

[BTD6_maker]

What does LAMIST stand for?

While I don't mind the slower pace, I very much agree with Jester - I think we should get our act together and start voting people we want dead. A deadline lynch seems particularly bad here - scum will find it easy to manipulate while having "deadline was coming" as an excuse.

I think that BTD is worse than Nexus and EP anyone else on that. EP and Nexus don't seem worried about the deadline, but at least they have done stuff. BTD is letting deadline approach without any kind of declared scumread, which is perfect for scum trying to manipulate things. In his own words:

Right now, I do not have clear scumreads, only very weak Townreads. This could suggest that Fishythefish and Nexus are weak scumreads, but of course I will need a lot more evidence. This is why I ask questions.

That's because I don't want to lie about my reads. Would the Townish thing to do be to lie about my reads and make my scumreads seem much stronger than they really are?

[BTD6_maker]

I suppose I can understand why you think that. You have never played with me before, as far as I can remember.

In general, I almost never form any reads stronger than moderate in Day 1. Even moderate reads are rare. This is common to practically all of my games.

[BTD6_maker]

It's certainly possible that you are town (or scum) and can't find anything in the game worth a strong read. Your play is also very convenient for scum.

This is probably one of those situations where I should actually read your damn meta. I'll try to do that later today, though to be honest the idea of going to sleep is far more appealing. Unless anyone else wants to volunteer BTD meta?

That's because I don't want to lie about my reads. Would the Townish thing to do be to lie about my reads and make my scumreads seem much stronger than they really are?

Yes, it would. If you are town, you should want to guide this lynch - in a 5 player game, it's crucial who has input into a lynch. If you don't have any reads, you should absolutely be trying to drive a lynch on someone you have a neutral read on.

Wouldn't that mean that if I drive a lynch onto someone I have a neutral read on, it would essentially be not much better than random chance?

Anyway, it's clear that we have very different playstyles. Yet this alone is not indicative of alignment.

You do seem to be going after me a lot for IIoA (or, as you put it, lack of A) though. Is this also just an artefact of your playstyle? It does seem to be something that scum want to do in particular in this game. Scum only need to lynch a single Townie that suspects someone else, so it seems like it's scum, not Town, that have the most to gain from tunnelling. I am fully aware that this is essentially the opposite of what you think scum would gain from. A deadline lynch is not ideal but if scum have been setting up a specific Town lynch that's even worse for Town.

[BTD6_maker]

I'm happy with my choice of The_Jester for sucm.

Jester is your buddy

Are there any reasons for your scumread on The Jester? You haven't given any.

[BTD6_maker]

I don’t need to. It’s obviously you or me at this point.

Now it's not so obvious who will be lynched. No one is voting anyone else. Of course, everyone has their personal reads and these will, of course, determine who gets lynched. You yourself have a scumread on The Jester, and now would be the best time to explain it.

At the moment, I am leaning towards Nexus being scum. Does Town have a reason to withhold their reasoning for a scumread? It doesn't matter that you are giving information to scum - if you tell them your reads they have a good idea of who you are likely to shoot, regardless of whether you supply reasoning. Perhaps as scum Nexus does not want to give the same reasons that Fishythefish gave previously to avoid appearing to sheep.

While I do have a weak scumread on Nexus, I would like to hear what reasoning they have about The Jester. That will help me to improve my read.

[BTD6_maker]

VOTE: Nexus

I may not be able to post until much closer to the deadline.

On closer inspection, you haven't said all that much about The Jester in your wall post. Your main point seems to be that The Jester is performing easy pushes. Of course, a large number of your points are irrelevant to this, but this is what I found on deeper analysis. Yet you yourself seem to be making a pretty easy push on The Jester in that post.

[BTD6_maker]

We will not have a No Lynch. This game uses plurality.

[BTD6_maker]

Deadline has passed and Nexus has been lynched.

Everyone likely thought it was majority until I checked. If it were a majority, a No Lynch would have ended the game. Now, The Jester voted me instead of Nexus. The Jester clearly scumread Nexus over me, though. In this case, if I were in The Jester's position (and assumed majority lynch) I think that hammering would have been the right move because it was so close to deadline that there was not much disadvantage to doing so. Hammering would not have been game-throwing.

In most games, you offer intent to give a last chance for the player to claim. Here, claims are unnecessary and (ignoring the fact that it wa plurality) we needed a hammer. Now, why would The Jester vote me? If they are scum, they can try to use the deadline to rush a wagon on me, hoping that I will kill Nexus (this would point towards Nexus being Town). Then again, they could just hammer Nexus, but they may have thought that Nexus would possibly kill them and that it would have been safer to lynch me. If they are Town, they clearly thought that they should not hammer without consensus. It's a bad idea, but it's understandable that Town would think that.

[BTD6_maker]

Ultimately, there was never going to be a No Lynch anyway.

[BTD6_maker]

This is the third time I have played a Vengeful, and my third scum win.

[BTD6_maker]

That said, keeping quiet at deadline would have probably been best in hindsight. Errantparabola would not be able to hammer at that time (I first posted with 17 minutes left).