Team Mafia 2023 Open: Mafia Topic

[jjh927]

Well, I could tell before I repped in that this was a scum slot but looks like timing has dropped me in it. Any advice?

[jjh927]

wow...
you claimed before checking wolf pt...
you didn't even do this in the micro that I played with you in

Oh okay I'll check Andante's iso and cry then

[jjh927]

Oh okay it's a VT claim then I guess

[jjh927]

Oh okay I'm totally fucked because draft cop exists and had a result on me. I guess it's my bad for not reading the setup fully before I thought the BP was the safer claim but I think I was doomed either way

[jjh927]

I've kinda been left to drown here but w/e

[jjh927]

Oh, never mind I panicked for nothing and it's just ythan being the first pick not anything deeper than that, phew

[jjh927]

I really need a lowdown on this game lmao

[jjh927]

I can see that you had a perfect plan for a claim and andante instead didn't read it and claimed VT and that's all the context I need

[jjh927]

Oh right so there IS a guilty on my slot and it seems pretty much uncontestable for me right now

[jjh927]

It's technically contestable but the correct play is just to lim someone else and then shoot me

[jjh927]

Yeah we'll see how long I last here

[jjh927]

I don't know why. Ythan has a guilty on me and actually there's a million different ways to play this for town but they all end with me being dead by next phase

[jjh927]

Okeydokey, gonna post in a way which implies I have a read on Bella before I should have a read on Bella which you can point out later but not immediately

[jjh927]

And if you want to make me appear aligned with mith I NEED to be the elim today or I'll get shot

[jjh927]

Oh, hang on, I can craft this in a way that makes Titus think her weird nonsense succeeded as well

[jjh927]

Lead me the way to El Dorado friend
Pedit: do u think u can crawl out of this and we can go onto mith?

No. When I claimed Gimli went for bulletproof it was (initially) a hail mary attempting to be able to assign some towniness to Gimli's motivation in an unconventional way

[jjh927]

Yeah cop is a better claim but you don't always have to play that

I was really hoping to take the "everyone playing team mafia is trying to be a hero" route

[jjh927]

Well, particularly when you consider that you actually did know that ythan was cop from that point because I'm here

[jjh927]

Or rather, in the hypothetical where this slot is scum then scum knew who the cop was

[jjh927]

But yeah, don't worry about it. Titus was probing bella for associative with me and I think she will see it there, particularly with a bit of a nudge

[jjh927]

If I do get limmed here then I would think your only real nightkill option is to kill Ythan, right

[jjh927]

Who would be the easiest person to get mith to kill for you if I could figure out the required combination of words

[jjh927]

And is it menalque? Can I try to get mith to kill menalque?

[jjh927]

Okay I'll need to get a feel for mith before maneuvering on that front so regretfully I'll have to read the game first and that's not happening tonight

[jjh927]

I'd keep that in the back pocket as a possible option if I fail at this probably quite difficult task

[jjh927]

I think you were pretty optimistic here trying to go for the mith lim at this point tbh

[jjh927]

We need to convince 2 of 4 people that Mith is safest elimination here rather than the guilty on me, which essentially involves pushing a team including Mith and Ythan

1 of the 4 people is Ythan and has a guilty on me so really it's 3 people.

1 one of them is LLD who both really does not like me and has actually good reasons to think I am scum here

so from my POV I think we can only hope to reach Bella and Menalque and they're gonna have LLD shouting at them the whole time

[jjh927]

Okay that's good to know
I think my goal might be just to get Bella to think I'm town then

[jjh927]

I can't really do anything until I have time to read the game

I'm on lunch rn

[jjh927]

I'm now on a train and thus able to read all the game.

The conclusions I need to reach are all made;
Ythan is already scum from town!me POV
Datisi needs to be a possible scum
Mith needs to be a likely scum
Therefore Alisae needs to be town
Bella and Mebalque both probably need to be town
LLD can be left open as a possible scum, especially if nobody else thinks so because it gives me something unique to push that makes no sense as scum

[jjh927]

jjh seeing you post with that pfp makes me smile

Anime poirot is my favourite pfp I've ever had lmao

I can dig out the old poirotposting image bank if you like lmao

[jjh927]

And many more. . .

[jjh927]

I mean u can play to lld or u can put her as a fos
You could say ythan and mith are both wolves then it can only be 1 of datisi/lld

That is exactly what I am planning on doing

[jjh927]

Possible future problem rn is that I'm on phone/tablet until tomorrow afternoon so if I have to explain my reasoning on Bella I won't be able to do it until I'm in a good position to search down something I am sure I put together in the past that I can just use again

[jjh927]

Lmao menalque 669

[jjh927]

I think this is a tricky situation given LLD probably having a very good point on datisi/gimli

I think giving less opportunity to bring that up would be ideal. Need to see how bella receives it to determine if we might feasibly be able to get mith- otherwise I think you might have to take the hard way, Ali

[jjh927]

Decide whether you can keep going for mith as that's still the winning move.
If we try to get Ythan over me then I get shot and Datisi is probably the lim afterwards and you have to win the 3p.
If I end up getting limmed here then shit's fucked, I think

[jjh927]

Okay, I'm gonna work on some very strong and well thought out opinions on the key slots. I think the number one thing is still convincing Bella.

Big one for me is I probably need some cool and original reasons to townread Alisae. Everything else can fit into place very easily.


I haven't seen much of Menalque but would he buy a mith/lld/ythan scumteam, particularly with all the mech reasons for it?

Namely, scum trying to go for both vigs and the cop for a fake guilty plays exactly like this, LLD is best to place based on results rather than her basically infinite range and she has not delivered this game, she is highly supportive of going for Ythan's guilty while if it's wrong and mith is scum then scum win, and she's pushed the idea that scum pick = bp while town pick= cop, except that a scumteam of ythan/lld/mith does not fear vigs as they picked both of them

[jjh927]

Like, I'm considering going flat out on Ythan/LLD/Mith scumteam because I think that's actually highly persuasive and focus on general paranoia about LLD's unreadability makes her content irrelevant to the debate

[jjh927]

I think we then through collective effort get Bella and Menalque to vote mith, because technically it's still a 50/50 in me/ythan and lld/datisi can also be a 50/50 if we frame it like that.

It doesn't hold up to scrutiny. Mith just logically shouldn't be the elim for town. But we might get it to work

[jjh927]

I feel like I found the holy grail of incriminating LLD posts

[jjh927]

LLD not being on either of those wagons despite clearly advocating for both of them one after the other gives such a powerful angle

[jjh927]

Really gotta think on the angle here but like damn

For LLD to be getting this defensive seems plausibly frameable as completely uncharacteristic flailing

[jjh927]

Nah, probably too hard a sell to focus on. Decent credibility damage as it stands though

[jjh927]

Reading through Andante's play has been painful knowing I am in this slot lmao

[jjh927]

Okay, I did it. I'm caught up

[jjh927]

So we're literally just waiting for inactive townies to get play the game a bit more so we can deceive them, got it

[jjh927]

I feel like Bella needs a conversation and Menalque needs to read the latest two pages and then we figure out how to individually get Bella and Menalque to both vote Mith

[jjh927]

[jjh927]

Btw it's salt awareness week

[jjh927]

It's even better if you consider the menalque-datisi roleswap may get revealed at some point

[jjh927]

The sneaky bit is ostensibly trying to convince you but doing it in a way that is probably more appropriate for convincing Bella

[jjh927]

I really wish we had an audience lmao

[jjh927]

It feeds into my narrative so I'm fine

[jjh927]

I just gotta sell this idea that the big spooky scary LLD is responsible for all the things that went wrong for town in the game

[jjh927]

It's very difficult without menalque showing up though

[jjh927]

Bella was the one who needed more work though so this order of things seems fine to me

[jjh927]

There's no dumb perspective slip or anything that mith thinks he can see, right

[jjh927]

Surely if not mena or bella then someone on their teams might be familiar with my historical scumrange and how this shouldn't be possible from scum!jjh right

[jjh927]

Based on my meta the chances of me replacing into a guiltied scum slot, reading 160 pages in a weekend, and then trying to push LLD are basically nil

[jjh927]

Anyway I think now we just wait for menalque and if Bella pops up then engaging with her is a good idea so I'll try to think of the right questions

[jjh927]

U would only do it if it was worth it

Do you know how much paranoia this is gonna place on my towngame

This is full on unrestrained manipulation gremlin with explanations about what I am doing in the PT. No hiding it any more but there is no longer anything holding back my scumgame

[jjh927]

Let's say we manage this and we somehow get mena to agree to vote mith

How do we get Bella to vote mith

[jjh927]

If the wagon was alisae/menalque that would confirm at least 1 scum in alisae/menalque/mith

[jjh927]

Takes like 3993 are a brick wall

Let's figure out how to break it

[jjh927]

What cool reasons do we have that mith should be the lim today over the other people we are saying are scum

[jjh927]

-Ythan has a cop inno on LLD so can't lim LLD before Ythan
-Can't decide between jjh927 and Ythan but can see mith scum in all scenarios

That second one needs a convincing case. Shout out when you come up with anything else

[jjh927]

-Gives town!Ythan another night to get results in the scum!jjh scenario as scum won't want to pop open the 1v1

[jjh927]

-Has as much chance of ending the game if a mislim as any other lim (not at all true but we can say it anyway)

[jjh927]

I'm gonna try to attribute Bella's read on Datisi to being influenced by LLD and just answer all of my problems like this

[jjh927]

I'm gonna see what happens if I entertain the idea of a Ythan/LLD/Menalque scumteam

Ali probably shouldn't move from mith without thinking it through now or that option probably leaves the table

[jjh927]

Could you maybe probe how Menalque/his team think my play looks with respect to my meta

I think they're honing in on the previous slots and I want as much mental distance as possible from them

[jjh927]

Okay I'm reading the room and I really think mith isn't realistic here

What's our plan B


Lim Ythan (already optimistic)
I get shot, LLD gets shot

5p is conftown mith, ali, datisi, menalque, bella.
Datisi buses ali, shoots mith, and wins the game in 3p? Or is that pushing our luck. . .
That 5p is definitely one that needs a strategy
There's also the option of leaving LLD alive and shooting mith in n3 instead but that sounds awful for you guys

[jjh927]

What's wrong with the suggestion in 1248 other than torturing datisi

[jjh927]

Yeah but the outcome is 3p elo with Datisi/Menalque/Bella which is still winnable

[jjh927]

And if we know that's where we're headed then that's the view that Datisi can take

[jjh927]

ie, if we do somehow get Ythan as the lim and not me then Datisi can look at an Ali/Bella scumteam and hope Menalque remains blind

[jjh927]

i think the game is lost if jjh falls today and ali gets shot tonight because lld is forcing me though tomorrow no matter what i fucking say, so

I am inclined to agree on that front. Me being the lim would be disastrous for us

[jjh927]

You can ignore it if you keep Menalque pocketed.

Let's say we get Ythan today. I get shot and we kill LLD. Alisae is the next elim, most likely. You can and should get fully behind it. You kill mith and boom, 3p elo is you, menalque, bella. If menalque remains pocketed, he votes Bella and you win.

[jjh927]

Oh, that's 100% true lmao

[jjh927]

You might want to place your vote there in the near future given you stated your intention to. I know it's a scary situation but honestly I don't see it getting worse as a direct result of your vote

[jjh927]

Bella being VLA is inconvenient for everyone and mena has to catch up. But theoretically, get one on side and it's deadlocked until someone compromises even assuming decisions get made. Get both and we get Ythan lim. It's kinda the only option at this point so we should go for it

[jjh927]

So, the "LLD is manipulating everything behind the scenes" line seems to have reached Bella but I don't think she has fully read my posts

[jjh927]

Is it just me or does that page look fucking awful for Ythan

[jjh927]

I want to let it sit

[jjh927]

It won't happen

[jjh927]

It can't happen. We can't win the game in this day phase.

[jjh927]

How do you see us pivoting Menalque or Bella there right now?

[jjh927]

Like, even just one of them

How do we get them to go from "I'm not 100% sure whether it's Ythan or jjh but I am probably going to vote jjh" to . . . "Nah let's just vote mith today"

[jjh927]

I think at this point we can only shift someone's opinion so much before there's whiplash. Even if we could pull it off they have their team mafia teams to point out just how different this end result is than the thing they are thinking about right now- or in other words, point out that it's insane

Not enough time on deadline to go through the whole spectrum of things inbetween these two stances

[jjh927]

i don't know town ali has given up and just wants to vote mith for the rest of the game

Okay I'll give town!Ali a chance then. I looked back at these reasons but none of them particularly work for you

-Ythan has a cop inno on LLD so can't lim LLD before Ythan
-Can't decide between jjh927 and Ythan but can see mith scum in all scenarios

That second one needs a convincing case. Shout out when you come up with anything else

-Gives town!Ythan another night to get results in the scum!jjh scenario as scum won't want to pop open the 1v1

-Has as much chance of ending the game if a mislim as any other lim (not at all true but we can say it anyway)

[jjh927]

I guess "He's a vig and probably shoots a townie he can get away with shooting even if we hit scum and that's why he was trying to get everyone's opinions on who to shoot" is another good reason. Scum get to decide who to NK and who to vig and whoever's left will be people who are like "Yeah I'd have voted that guy anyway"

[jjh927]

As in, in terms of my meta?

[jjh927]

I don't have the effort for big cases any more.
I don't have meta for replacing in any more either

My lategame generally involves a combination of mech/gamestate based solve combined with strong reads, which is what I'm doing here. My earlygame typically begins with a lazy and relatively laid-back gut heavy approach to try and find the easiest scum to elim in day 1, and either takes a "pushing the first domino" line of voting that easiest scum elim and watching it become inevitable, or then pivots into a more involved game to try and figure out who else might be scum.

[jjh927]

One thing to consider is that town!me doesn't end up in lategames this fucked

[jjh927]

and I haven't rolled scum in like 2 years so neither does scum!me I guess

[jjh927]

I love how Ythan just can't help herself

[jjh927]

I think leaving things there is good for mena or bella to come back to

[jjh927]

If you say something and someone else goes
"That was very convincing"
other people will be more likely to agree

[jjh927]

Please don't remind me about things Andante did

[jjh927]

[jjh927]

Tbf Ythan would still have a guilty on me

Everything would have been a lot better if I'd just replaced Gimli in day 2

[jjh927]

If we come back in later when hopefully mena or bella are around, I'm probably gonna try and convince you in thread to change vote to Ythan. If you can get some convincing or at least believable reasons for why you don't want to switch and obstinately hold your ground it might justify me moving to mith, and if we get 1 of bella or menalque then that's the momentum we need for the swing

But it's a risky play

[jjh927]

In terms of our ostensible perspectives, I think you're running with "mith is scum and therefore Ythan is scum", whereas I 'know' that Ythan is scum and have now been convinced that therefore mith is scum

That's probably the point that sells it

[jjh927]

Like, you're solving in spite of the guilty being there and all this focus on the guilty is distracting from mith just being scum, and leaving him alive will always result in another dead townie

[jjh927]

u got this one chief

You're gonna have to pitch in now though

[jjh927]

u got this one chief

You can at least throw in "Mith will kill a townie in this night phase"

[jjh927]

I think the best answer for you for that question I just asked is you, but basically any plausible answer should get us places

[jjh927]

Well, hope is dead

[jjh927]

We aren't getting Ythan or mith

[jjh927]

Am I making this up or was there some mith meta discussed in this game around him making logical and sensible posts as scum too