Mafia 78: Meta Breaking Mafia 1 - Game over!

[Tarhalindur]

Vote: Rosso Carne

for lurking in a certain ongoing game.

[Tarhalindur]

Back after a week of relative inactivity.

The big question of the last six pages: why the hell was Surye not forced to claim when he reached L-2?

Oh wait, that's an easy question: Surye didn't have to claim because Ecto (and to a lesser extent Adel) derailed the wagon just after it reached L-2 and before Surye was forced to claim.

I'm not going to fault CoolBot for wanting a claim out of someone who should have been forced to claim 3 pages ago. I do, however, think Ectomancer's derailing the Surye wagon and many, many questions asked while giving only a few of his own thoughts indicates that Ecto is fairly likely to be scum.

Unvote, Vote: Ectomancer

[Tarhalindur]

Albert is not at the top of my scumdar for three reasons: 1) he was not on the Surye wagon in the first place, so it's somewhat more believable that he was simply against the Surye wagon from the beginning, 2) of all players on the site, Albert is the player I find hardest to read, especially on Day 1, and I prefer to vote for players that I actually have a scum read on, and 3) Ecto seems scummier to me right now, not to mention a bit under the radar.

I'm setting aside Adel for now mainly because her play here so far does not really fit my scum meta on her (in particular, she's being far more aggressive here than I remember her being in Mini 458). It's possible that she's changed her meta, but that's something we can deal with later. As things currently stand, I believe that Adel is either town or neutral.

Pickem: There is a difference between "asking questions and giving your analysis" and "asking questions instead of giving your own analysis" (and by analysis I mean player analysis). The former is pro-town, the latter is not, and Ecto seems to be doing the latter. Savvy?

This "why Ecto not Adel or Albert" flareup is very interesting, however. While I'm mulling it over, I see a player named Ecto who has bandwagon jumped three times with minimal reasoning and whose "thoughts", as I am reading them, largely consist of Mafia theory (as opposed to analysis with reasons on other players, which is what I was looking for from him). Got anything to say about that, Ecto?

[Tarhalindur]

Here. Don't have much to say, really (see V/LA).

[Tarhalindur]

As far as I can see Adel is being Adel. I don't know Ecto so that is no tell for me. Albert is being quieter then usual however. It's just an odd thing I've noticed.

So, let's see... short posts with relatively little content (sure, farside posted what could be considered analysis, but she's not taking a firm stand on anything)... ayup, that's a scumtell coming from you.

Ecto wagon isn't doing anything, while farside is under the radar. I think some pressure is in order.

Unvote, Vote: farside22

[Tarhalindur]

</3 Adel.
</3 ABR.

<3

Vote: Kison

(for the "Sucks for Us!" Tell)

[Tarhalindur]

I finally had a chance to reread Day 1 with an eye for Adel connections, and I noticed this.

wait, farside, what unvote and lack of doing anything are you talking about? Last I checked Adels vote was on ABR, though a post may have gone by when it wasnt...

Anyways, I thought this Adel wagon was just some random thing that ABR pulled our of his ass, I didnt realize it was a retarded ongoing campaign of ruining games without reason. Not only is it worthy of a policy lynch in my opinion, Adels responses basically destroyed anything he was trying to say, as he called momentum stopping scummy, and at the same time was trying to get the game abandoned. Not to mention that the creation of a baseless wagon on Adel totally derails the only activity that we had going at the time. So yeah.

unvote, vote: ABR

The rationale behind this vote makes it pretty clear to me that this is a case of Chainsaw Defense, which is not only a Tarhalindur Standard Tell (see the Wiki page linked in my sig for explanation) but also the most reliable of the Standard Tells at this time. What's more, it's Chainsaw Defense

for a known scum

, which is even more damning.

I need to PBPA Elias, but I don't really have time for any full PBPA's right now. In the meantime...

Unvote, Vote: Elias_the_Thief

[Tarhalindur]

/prodded

I probably need another reread (which I do not have time for at the moment). From a cursory review and memory, my scumdar is currently Gorrad (who replaced Ectomancer, who derailed the Surye wagon with a known scum and was playing to my scum meta on him), Elias (still don't like the Chainsaw for Adel, but he may need to wait), and Surye (I forgot just who was responsible for derailing that wagon...).

Actually, Gorrad and Elias can wait. It's time that we finish what we should have done yesterday - force a claim out of Surye.

Unvote, Vote: Surye

[Tarhalindur]

Prodded, Surye claim noted - that's what I was after.

Surye's mason claim can be confirmed or disproved by the other mason if necessary, so I am inclined to believe it. We can deal with the possibility of a scum mason later (Surye, is your mason partner mod-confirmed innocent?).

I failed to notice Xtoxm's FBI Agent claim earlier. I would like to take the time to note that I believe the claim - in fact, in my opinion, I would have to be insane to think otherwise.

Given deadline and my limited access,for the time being I'll fall back on one of my other preferences for lynch - Gorrad, whose play feels off this game (and whose predecessor, Ecto, read scum while he was playing). After further consideration of the situation, I'd rather deal with Elias a bit later.

Unvote, Vote: Gorrad

[Tarhalindur]

Points against Gorrad: Ecto (who Gorrad replaced) helped derail the first Surye wagon (I've said it before, and I'll say it again - any wagon that reaches L-2 in a game with at least 10 players alive needs to end in a claim), used a playstyle consisting of lots of questions and vote/bandwagon jumps with little explanation (coming from Ecto, that's scummy as all hell), and all-but-ignored Adel despite helping her with the Surye derail (again, consistent with Ecto scum). Gorrad is not nearly as bad, but he bandwagoned heavily, especially at the start of Day 2 (somewhat unusual coming from Gorrad - from what I've seen, he usually stays focused on a single player).

The other big point against Gorrad is that all other easily attainable lynches have major problems (Xtoxm looks all-but-clear to me at the moment, Surye can confirm himself via his partner, I can pretty much clear myself by claim if needed). I'd also support an Elias lynch, but there's no support for that.

[Tarhalindur]

Joyous, so the one point against me specifically is that I bandwagoned. That's easily explainable, I actually took good notes during this readthrough. Therefore, because I had notes on hand, I was comfortable voting those I mentioned as scummy. Typically, I don't have notes nearly as good at this, so I'll find one very scummy player and not remember much about others. Not exactly a good strategy, hence the change. Other points I can't defend against, as I didn't cause them.

Also, as much as I hate to admit it, Tar's second paragraph does make sense. He didn't mention the posibility of him being lynched, naturally, but too many people seem to have fallen for Xtoxm's fakeclaim for an Xtoxm lynch to be viable. Ah well, we'll see.

The more important factors for me are that 1) Ecto was, as far as I am concerned, scummy as all hell (not your fault, but you still pay the price for the actions of your predecessor) and 2) I can't see another good preexisting wagon at this point (I have explained why the other three wagons are bad, and I know of no reason why your lynch would be as bad as the three I mentioned), and with deadline a preexisting wagon is our best bet IMO.

Also, unless you have an ability that can find the SK or you know that the SK is investigation immune (for that second one, read: you are the SK), GTFO Xtoxm. Since the beginning of the day, I have strongly suspected that there is an SK-specific investigation role, and so far nobody else has claimed to be that role.

In other news, shaft.ed just took a HUGE jump onto my scumdar for his new crypto tangent (which feels REALLY odd to me - it looks like an attack, but shaft.ed's heart doesn't seem to be in it... possible Information Instead of Analysis?). I need to do a fast read and compare his play here to his play in Open 57 (where he was scum).

FoS: shaft.ed

Finally, as for shaft.ed's question: An Adel/Ecto scumpair could have derailed the Surye wagon for townie points. For that matter, while Surye is not a good lynch for today, I won't consider him completely clear unless I hear that the masons are confirmed innocent (which Surye has so far failed to do).

[Tarhalindur]

L-2 = claim time. I'm an overeager vig. Must kill every night, cannot target self. I killed Adel. I stated much suspicion of her before night, and it payed off. That's why I don't believe Xtoxm. It's possible that there's a SK, but I highly doubt it. Scum would see that kill, assume SK, and claim accordingly. Simple, neh?

The fact that I'm claiming this also negates any allegations of my being partnered with Adel. If I was, then I could be counter-claimed. I won't be, therefore that bit of suspicion should be dropped immeadiately, thank you Tar.

Tar and Xtoxm are top of my list. If I survive today, I'll gaurantee one dead tomorrow (so you can be assured it's not a one-shot ability). Now, can we lynch Xtoxm please?

I have some difficulty buying this, but it is *potentially* consistent with what I know.

Regardless, I think it's time for my claim (mainly because if Gorrad is telling the truth and alive tonight he needs to know just how stupid his idea is). I'm a Cop (sanity currently unknown). I investigated ABR N1 (because he's ABR); despite ABR's death, I found that he was specifically not a member of the Mafia (so I'm either Sane or Naive, and I can apparently only find Mafia). This suggests to me that there is a second scumgroup in the game; if so, Gorrad is almost certainly the SK.

I think I know what should be done here. We keep myself, Gorrad, and Xtoxm alive today. Tonight, Gorrad targets Xtoxm. If Xtoxm comes up scum, Gorrad is mostly clear; if Gorrad kills a different player or if Xtoxm is an FBI Agent, Gorrad gets lynched tomorrow (or left alive for a bit if I survive with a guilty).

As for who should be lynched at deadline... my best candidate is shaft.ed. After my reread here, his play looks much, much more like his play in Open 57 and House Mafia (where he was scum) than his play in Mini 492 and Mini 495 (where he was town). Note the short posts, Mafia theory, and lack of long analysis posts - coming from shaft.ed, that's remarkably scummy.

Unvote, Vote: shaft.ed

[Tarhalindur]

I want a lynch, but I do NOT want a Rosso lynch (Rosso is acting like Rosso, who would be better off being investigated and/or vigged, and appears to be inactive to boot). I strongly believe that there are multiple mafia on that wagon (probably shaft.ed and Kison).

In the interests of getting a lynch,

Unvote

[Tarhalindur]

Hmm. I got a result last night - another innocent. I can reveal that player's name if needed, but as that player is still alive I would rather refrain from doing so.

In the meantime, hunting for Rosso connections can wait. Gorrad is the lynch for today. Period.

Vote: Gorrad
LOCK ON: Gorrad

[Tarhalindur]

Welp I can see both Gorrad the vig and Gorrad the SK wanting to kill Xtoxm. Seems the town has the lynch to waste to test out mod shenanigans and Gorrad's self vote feels like an "a real SK wouldn't do that" type of ploy. I think I'd be OK with a Gorrad lynch. But would like to not string him up before everyone posts.

@TS, PEG where were you end of day yesterday when scum was being last minute quicklynched?

@Tar, why not investigate Gorrad? (I think I know but just checking)

Because the wording of my results makes me pretty damn sure that I cannot detect the SK (either due to being Naive or due to being Mafia-specific) and if Gorrad is scum he is the SK. In addition, my priority right now is to prove sanity by either getting a Guilty or investigating a scum as innocent/

In addition,

Big Fat FoS of Doom: Toaster Strudel

for that comment on the missing kill method.

[Tarhalindur]

I just stepped back, reread, and did the math.

Unvote

- it is in Gorrad's best interest to allow the town to direct his kill, it is in our best interest to keep the second kill in play until tomorrow (maximizes the number of town-directed kills). Keeping him alive tomorrow, however, is not an option.

Also, I suspect that we have either 1 or 1.5 Mafia left (1.5 would be due to something like Mafia Traitor or Judas), just based on game balance. Two surviving scum would require a TON of power roles.

Towndar:
Tar - well, no shit, Sherlock!
Surye - not worth looking into the masons yet, that will have to be dealt with closer to endgame.
shaft.ed - after yesterday, I suspect that I will have to eat some crow about him.
pickem - play here looks like how he plays as town lately.

Town or SK:
Gorrad - reasons should be obvious.

Scumdar:
TS - I didn't like farside. Farside was Chainsaw Defended by Adel using an appeal to emotion (the "she's a new mother" defense - partially valid, but not completely exculpatory). TS was not on the Rosso wagon (granted, neither was I, but there was a reason for that: I was planning to investigate Rosso prior to his lynch). I concluded at the end of my latest read that in all probability exactly one of shaft.ed and TS (rep. farside) is scum. I'm pretty sure that shaft.ed is town after all.

Vote: Toaster Strudel

Elias - heavy, heavy Chainsaw Defense for Adel (a known scum). Has been largely inactive otherwise. Lurkerscum?
MM - Defended farside on the same reasons that Adel did. FoS'ed Rosso Carne out of what seems to be thin air, then voted him at deadline. If there is a non-Mafia mafia-aligned role, I'd say he's it.
TSS - No votes during the entire game. Largest post was pure setup speculation. That's IIoA, folks.
Kison - I don't like the vig speculation, and he made a few big summary posts (I consider summarizing game events to be a moderate scumtell). On the other hand, some of his posts do look fairly pro-town (esp. mid D2). Weakest scum read.

[Tarhalindur]

I have too voted. I'm aware that I haven't been playing all that deeply in this game, but I haven't been quite as bad as you're making me out to be.

Besides, the "keep Gorrad alive, one day only" plan which you're now endorsing was my idea. If I were scum, would I have lost anything by keeping my mouth shut?

What's IIoA?

*raises eyebrow*

You were the fourth person on my scumdar (which was listed in order of scumminess). That's a bit of an overreaction there.

1) I stand corrected, you have voted twice (one for first CoolBot wagon, one random vote). That's still a pretty glaring lack of votes, though.

2) WIFOM.

3) When an unexplained acronym appears in a post of mine, it is often wise to check the link in my sig.

[Tarhalindur]

Posting this in all my games: limited access until Sunday due to upcoming event.

Please do not lynch until my return.

[Tarhalindur]

Last night's result is an innocent on a living player.

Gorrad has to die today. Period. Leaving him alive would cost us a lynch, and we cannot afford that.

I support the massclaim.

[Tarhalindur]

I just noticed an MM post from Day 3 that makes me much more suspicious about him:

GorradSK is in full desperation mode now, so he should be the lynch today. But I agree with shaft.ed that we need to have everyone post before lynching Gorrad. There's 10 alive, so it's 6 to lynch and Gorrad already has 4 votes.

Does anyone else see the problem with this post? Here's a hint: Tarhalindur Standard Tell (also, the reasoning for the Gorrad lynch looks more like "hey, I get to live another day" than "hey, I think Gorrad is SK"... wait, that's a bigger problem than even the Standard Tell...)

MM, claim or die.

[Tarhalindur]

Vote: Gorrad

Lets not lose sight. I know that we have a couple things to do today, but I'm getting this ball rolling.

Quick question for Tar, is there any reason to believe you are definitely not naive? You might have said you got a guilty, but I don't remember.

Quite the opposite: I'm assuming I am Naive until proven otherwise.

Surviving innocents: Toaster Strudel (should NOT have investigated her in retrospect), shaft.ed

MM, would you mind investigating Surye? If there's a scum in the Masons (which I consider increasingly probable), he's probably it.

I want the results of MM's daycop before we head into night. No vote for now for exactly that reason.

[Tarhalindur]

Vote: Gorrad

Lets not lose sight. I know that we have a couple things to do today, but I'm getting this ball rolling.

Quick question for Tar, is there any reason to believe you are definitely not naive? You might have said you got a guilty, but I don't remember.

Quite the opposite: I'm assuming I am Naive until proven otherwise.

Surviving innocents: Toaster Strudel (should NOT have investigated her in retrospect), shaft.ed

MM, would you mind investigating Surye? If there's a scum in the Masons (which I consider increasingly probable), he's probably it.

I want the results of MM's daycop before we head into night. No vote for now for exactly that reason.

Any reason you'd pick me over PEG?

Now that Mini 547 has been abandoned... because PEG is playing to his town meta (I killed him for playing the exact same way he's played here as scum in 547).

TS: Yes, I did investigate you after your claim, for the exact same reason that I investigated ABR after his claim: I didn't see the claim.

I fully expect to be lynched tomorrow for that mistake, too.

Note: pretty sure the last scum is Surye or shaft.ed, MM being third choice. Pickem is unlikely to be scum, Gorrad is not Mafia but has to be lynched, TS is confirmed innocent.

[Tarhalindur]

Allrighty then. So I think Tar's Cop claim followed by the lack of a NK follwed by a Doc claim indicates either Tar is a Cop or the scum did not NK in order to make Tar look like a cop. Comments on which would be appreciated.

If Tar is a townsided cop (which I find highly likely) that means we have either MM fakeclaiming paranoid daycop with a scum-mason, or we have two of the ballsiest scum I've ever seen claiming a mason pair with MM being a real paranoid daycop. I tend to lean the former.

Option #3: There is only one scum surviving, and his name is Machivellian Mafia.

Option #4: You're the Godfather, and MM is your partner.

Option #5: You're neutral, and MM is the last Mafia.

Oh, by the way, I'm Sane, and I'm pretty damn sure that at least one of the masons is town. After all, I just got a guilty on MM.

Vote: Machivellian Mafia
LOCK ON: Machivellian Mafia

[Tarhalindur]

OK I've been thinking about this over the weekend and I believe that lynching between the masons is the correct play. If Tar and MM were scum partners, Tar's guilty would not be placed on MM as a bus, but would instead be used in an attempt to take out the last townie in LyLo. Thus one of the masons must be scum.

PEG would you care log'ing in to tell us which of the masons is scum?

Mod can we get a PEG prod/replacement please?

[Tarhalindur]

EBWOP: Computer malfunction, disregard that.

[Tarhalindur]

EBWOP: Computer malfunction, disregard that.

You gonna come back and make a real post?

Yes, but I have to think over all the situations first.

Also, I should note now that 1) a recheck indicates only a partial meta on PEG (town only), and 2) at this point, I disagree with shaft.ed - in no small part because, if there's two surviving scum, I think he's one of them.

[Tarhalindur]

I apologize for the lack of posting (I've been borderline flaking since early in the game).

I can't promise more right now, however: a family emergency just came up, and my access

may

be affected. I'll try to get my big post up ASAP, though, it's half-written.

Request Deadline Extension

[Tarhalindur]

Okay, time for the big post.

First - I admit freely that my play has been horrible this game. I've been on the verge of flaking for much of the game, I've misinvestigated twice (ABR and TS) due to not paying attention, the timing of proving I'm Sane is horrible, and my play has been wretched at best.

There's really only two things in my favor:

1) Breadcrumbs. I didn't feel the need to point them out when I originally claimed, but they are there. First:

Prodded, Surye claim noted - that's what I was after.

Surye's mason claim can be confirmed or disproved by the other mason if necessary, so I am inclined to believe it. We can deal with the possibility of a scum mason later (Surye, is your mason partner mod-confirmed innocent?).

I failed to notice Xtoxm's FBI Agent claim earlier. I would like to take the time to note that I believe the claim - in fact, in my opinion, I would have to be insane to think otherwise.

Given deadline and my limited access,for the time being I'll fall back on one of my other preferences for lynch - Gorrad, whose play feels off this game (and whose predecessor, Ecto, read scum while he was playing). After further consideration of the situation, I'd rather deal with Elias a bit later.

Unvote, Vote: Gorrad

Note the specific wording "I would have to be insane to think otherwise". This was an explicit reference to the fact that I could reasonable conclude (due to ABR being dead as town) that I was not - indeed, am not - Insane or Paranoid.

Second:

Points against Gorrad: Ecto (who Gorrad replaced) helped derail the first Surye wagon (I've said it before, and I'll say it again - any wagon that reaches L-2 in a game with at least 10 players alive needs to end in a claim), used a playstyle consisting of lots of questions and vote/bandwagon jumps with little explanation (coming from Ecto, that's scummy as all hell), and all-but-ignored Adel despite helping her with the Surye derail (again, consistent with Ecto scum). Gorrad is not nearly as bad, but he bandwagoned heavily, especially at the start of Day 2 (somewhat unusual coming from Gorrad - from what I've seen, he usually stays focused on a single player).

The other big point against Gorrad is that all other easily attainable lynches have major problems (Xtoxm looks all-but-clear to me at the moment, Surye can confirm himself via his partner, I can pretty much clear myself by claim if needed). I'd also support an Elias lynch, but there's no support for that.

Big fat obvious power role crumb, and further support for the claim that mirrored my own role.

Joyous, so the one point against me specifically is that I bandwagoned. That's easily explainable, I actually took good notes during this readthrough. Therefore, because I had notes on hand, I was comfortable voting those I mentioned as scummy. Typically, I don't have notes nearly as good at this, so I'll find one very scummy player and not remember much about others. Not exactly a good strategy, hence the change. Other points I can't defend against, as I didn't cause them.

Also, as much as I hate to admit it, Tar's second paragraph does make sense. He didn't mention the posibility of him being lynched, naturally, but too many people seem to have fallen for Xtoxm's fakeclaim for an Xtoxm lynch to be viable. Ah well, we'll see.

The more important factors for me are that 1) Ecto was, as far as I am concerned, scummy as all hell (not your fault, but you still pay the price for the actions of your predecessor) and 2) I can't see another good preexisting wagon at this point (I have explained why the other three wagons are bad, and I know of no reason why your lynch would be as bad as the three I mentioned), and with deadline a preexisting wagon is our best bet IMO.

Also, unless you have an ability that can find the SK or you know that the SK is investigation immune (for that second one, read: you are the SK), GTFO Xtoxm. Since the beginning of the day, I have strongly suspected that there is an SK-specific investigation role, and so far nobody else has claimed to be that role.

In other news, shaft.ed just took a HUGE jump onto my scumdar for his new crypto tangent (which feels REALLY odd to me - it looks like an attack, but shaft.ed's heart doesn't seem to be in it... possible Information Instead of Analysis?). I need to do a fast read and compare his play here to his play in Open 57 (where he was scum).

FoS: shaft.ed

Finally, as for shaft.ed's question: An Adel/Ecto scumpair could have derailed the Surye wagon for townie points. For that matter, while Surye is not a good lynch for today, I won't consider him completely clear unless I hear that the masons are confirmed innocent (which Surye has so far failed to do).

Note the "since the beginning of the day" part of this quote. Note that I figured out that I could not detect SK if one existed because of my result from N1.

Next post was a fullclaim, so crumbs end here.

Second, a metagame (and therefore somewhat unreliable) argument: Can you point out an occasion where I could conceivably have bussed a buddy in this game? If you look at my finished games as Mafia scum, you'll noticed that one of the defining traits of Tar as Mafia is bussing a buddy (Tool in SG-1, TG in Mini 547, skitzer in Mafia 76, etc.).

Now, let's take a look at how MM as scum fits: N1 kill Adel (duh), N2 try to kill the Cop (stopped by Doc), N3 kill Kison for unknown reason (suspect he's a second cop?), D4 claim a role that's an exact mirror of mine to try to skate to endgame, N4 kill TS (no second Cop).

In addition, MM's behavior is, if possible, WORSE than mine:

Rosso Carne has not voted yet... I'd like to get out of the random stage, thank you very much nicely.

Are you saying that everyone needs to vote before the random stage is over?

I should have caught this several days ago (say, when Rosso came up scum). This looks like MM advising a fellow scum under the guise of scumhunting.

I am not buying farside's wagon due to the link in her sig.

And with the deadline coming up, I do not see myself moving my vote away from CoolBot unless somebody quickly becomes extremely scummy.

Since the alignment of both Albert and Adel are currently unknown, I consider their war of words to be a null tell. So I still like CoolBot as the best lynch.

The most recent exchanges gave me town vibes from both ABR and Elias. On the other hand CoolBot is overwhelmingly on top with his defeatist "I'm expendable" comment.

Pushing the Coolbot lynch (which is just as explainable from scum pushing a mislynch as it is explainable as daycop with a bad guilty).

First I'm taking a look at the CoolBot wagons, which likely have scum.

CoolBot reaches L-1 in VC#8: {Surye, shaft.ed, Albert, Ectomancer, Adel, pickemgenius, Machiavellian-Mafia}
CoolBot is lynched VC#20 {pickemgenius, Machiavellian-Mafia, shaft.ed, Surye, the silent speaker, Kison, farside22, Adel/Gorrad*}
*Adel actually hammered first but misspelled vote. Gorrad successfully hammered.

Common players among both wagons: {MM, PEG, Surye, Shaft.ed, Ecto/Gorrad}

PEG - Generally non-contributor during D1. Full of one-liners. No reasoning whatsoever. Leaning scum.

FOS: PEG

Surye - Defended himself well against early D1 attacks and justified his suspicions towards CoolBot. Leaning town.

Shaft.ed - One of the most protown players thus far. Had valid reasons for CoolBot vote. Leaning town.

Ecto/Gorrad - Ecto was a little bit better than PEG, but still a general non-contributor. Gorrad seems to be an improvement, but currently there are too few posts from Gorrad to make judgement. Neutral.

The biggest things off here are MM's hypocrisy (indirectly attacking players for being on the Coolbot wagon when he was a major force behind the Coolbot wagon himself), unwillingness to commit to attacking any player (finding two players scum, one player neutral, and one player not scummy enough to vote is borderline IIoA) and FoS'ing Pickem instead of voting him (I suspect either not wanting to step on toes or bussing).

PEG has not done anything recently to change my mind about his lack of contributions a.k.a. lurking in plain sight, so

vote: PEG

.

Okay, so there's followup... but no pushing it later? That's a decided difference from how he pushed the Coolbot wagon. Also, if he is a daycop, why didn't he investigate pickem (or Rosso for that matter?) MM/Pickem is actually looking possible now.

After rereading, I find Rosso's play to be just as bad as PEG's. He always seemed to push for certain players' lynches without backing them up with votes. FOS: Rosso

I also revisited the derailment of the Surye wagon, and I find some validity in the Adel/Surye connection. Adel first derails that wagon by subtly complying with ABR's request of "we should all lower our guns", then immediately switches to me for the misrepresented reason of "putting him at L-1" when my vote was L-2. After that Adel fakes re-voting Surye, as if to paint the picture he is trying to undo the derailment. Then the CoolBot wagon gained strength with Adel hopping onto that as well, and Adel rarely if ever mentioned Surye again.

Thus,

Unvote, Vote: Surye

. I believe that's L-2.

Yet another FoS, this time on Rosso (a known scum) with no followup until the deadline wagon. In the meantime, he goes after Surye (the mason who is actually more likely to be town) with relatively detailed reasoning. I call bussing.

Next, let's take a look at MM L-1'ing Rosso Carne:

MM why do you think he's a likely SK? That's a big stretch based off of a single comment in my eyes.

I think it makes the most sense for an SK to react strongly to that claim to try to discredit the SK investigator. Now taking into account Gorrad's overeager vig claim, I find it more likely that one of Xtoxm and Gorrad is lying, rather than both claiming truth. I buy Tar's claim.

I can go with the plan regarding Gorrad and Xtoxm. I also have no problem with a Rosso lynch, as I have expressed suspicion before and Surye made some valid analysis. I believe this vote will be the 6th vote, or L-1:

Unvote, Vote: Rosso

Big problem here: the poorly explained L-1 vote (I've already shown how bad the "prior suspicion" was. If there's one place where I'd expect scum to be on an end-of-day wagon on scum, it's near the end (bussing).

GorradSK is in full desperation mode now, so he should be the lynch today. But I agree with shaft.ed that we need to have everyone post before lynching Gorrad. There's 10 alive, so it's 6 to lynch and Gorrad already has 4 votes.

Do NOT like this post - it's consistent with scum who wants rival scum dead. Also note how he IS willing to go after Gorrad as opposed to a few other players (ABR, PEG, and Rosso mainly) - that looks suspiciously like how I played in Stargate SG-1 (bus partner weakly while finding reasons to go after the Replicators).

MM - Defended farside on the same reasons that Adel did. FoS'ed Rosso Carne out of what seems to be thin air, then voted him at deadline. If there is a non-Mafia mafia-aligned role, I'd say he's it.

I see your "thin air" comment as a misrepresentation. During one of my rereads yesterday I found Rosso to be as scummy as PEG since they were both severe non-contributors. Also I remember a couple of other players express suspicions about Rosso before I did.

I failed to follow up on this at the time due to a bout of flakage. The belated response: 1) Rosso really didn't have that much suspicion on him at the time, and just because other players express suspicion about a player does not mean that it's not suspicious that you suddenly notice something that actually is scummy, FoS, and don't follow up on it - in fact, it looks like bussing. 2) That's actually misrepresenting your own reasoning - quoted above.

I currently like PEG, TS, and Elias as scum candidates, in that order, since they have all been pretty much nonexistent in terms of contributing, especially recently. I'll jump on TS wagon and pressure him.

Vote: TS

Let's see: suspicions are pickem + two other players. Bussing? Anyone want to bet that he's going to back off of Pickem? Oh wait, that's a sucker bet...

I did a reread on my top 3 suspects and I view PEG in a more positive light now. So I like TS lynch + Gorrad killing Elias.

Claimed breadcrumb, but also could very easily be scum backing off of the partner he's bussing. Also, this is the second time he's abandoned pickem suspicions.

Besides Gorrad, I currently suspect shaft.ed, surye, and TS, in that order, based on process of elimination and role based info.

And I have no problem with mass claiming now.

Setting up the claim...

Claim: insane or paranoid daycop

Initially I was not told of my sanity, but I figured it out through my investigations that I have to be either insane or paranoid.

Day 1: Investigated CoolBot because of his claim-demanding scummy behavior and got mafia/guilty, thus my aggressiveness towards getting him lynched is the breadcrumb.

Day 2: Investigated Tar due to strong suspicion at that time and got mafia/guilty. I recall 1 post in which I said "specifically" look at Tar, which was the breadcrumb. Also after Tar claimed, I said "buy" instead of "currently buy" for the claim, which breadcrumbed that I have very strong belief in the claim due to my investigation and Tar's claimed flavor matching mine.

Day 3: Investigated PEG due to strong suspicion and got mafia/guilty. I recall 1 post in which I said "I see PEG in a more positive light", which was the breadcrumb.

I think my role is more likely to be insane than paranoid because I believe Tar and PEG to be town. Hopefully my investigation for today can result in a not mafia/innocent.

... and the claim. It's rather convenient that it's an exact mirror of my own claim - since it's all-but-certain that exactly one of myself and MM is scum, either I managed to mirror MM's role when I claimed despite having absolutely no reasonable way of knowing what his role was, or MM made his claim as a mirror of mine in order to try to slip through to endgame.

The crumbs, as I've shown above, could easily be nothing more than random posts dressed up as breadcrumbs (with the exception of the last crumb, by which point MM had presumably decided on a claim).

This, in fact, was one of the two reasons to investigate MM last night: his role was so close to mine that his claim was the most likely falseclaim. The other reason to do so was because an innocent on MM would mean that the two cops combined had investigated every player in the game and gotten the same result for each investigation, which I would have considered evidence of naive Cop/paranoid Daycop if it had come to pass.

Second: shaft.ed, there are two dead Mafia Goons and I have a Guilty on a third. In addition, I just proved myself Sane. I'm definitely NOT going to rule out an investigation-immune scum (either Godfather or Traitor), and since you're NOT a mason (I find scum mason Godfather a little out of whack for a Normal game) you're the obvious choice should either role be in the game.

You *could* also be an SK who decided to hold fire, but I have my doubts.

You may be right that we have a scum mason, especially given the interactions between MM and pickem that the PBPA picked up, but I'm not going to give you a pass on being scum at this stage just because you have an Innocent on you.

Third, a final piece of analysis:

I'm not entirely sure exactly what we're dealing with. We started with 15 players, so from a game balance perspective a 4-man scum team is somewhat overpowered... except that we have a lot of power roles.

The best candidates are Goon + Scum Mason, Goon + Godfather, Goon + Traitor, Goon + SK. Odds say that shaft.ed is fairly likely investigation-immune scum, MM's interactions suggest that pickem is the last scum.

After reread, I'm pretty sure that Surye is NOT scum. He led the Rosso wagon D2 (sorry, shaft.ed, you weren't the player who did the PBPA on Rosso) and MM actually came down on him D2.

Pickem could be scum, given how MM has treated him; I'd need to read his posts again to be sure. Right now I'm going to backtrack (again...) and say that as of now I think he's actually somewhat more likely to be scum than shaft.ed is, given how reluctant MM was to follow up on his pickem attacks (he did that to Rosso, though I will note now that he also FoS'ed ABR and camisade/xtoxm during D1 and never really followed up).

Shaft.ed *could* be scum (if so, he has to be investigation-immune); again, I'd need a reread to be sure.

MM is definitely scum.

[Tarhalindur]

at how MM as scum fits: N1 kill Adel (duh),

I don't think Adel was the logical scum NK. Think you meant ABR.

Point, set, match, facepalm.

Okay, so there's followup... but no pushing it later? That's a decided difference from how he pushed the Coolbot wagon. Also, if he is a daycop, why didn't he investigate pickem (or Rosso for that matter?) MM/Pickem is actually looking possible now.

I am seeing that as well. Need to look at MM's investigation list again. OK he investigates Tar Day2. I'll have to reread to see how logical that is in relation to his posting at the time. Certainly doesn't follow with his suspicions.

The crumbs, as I've shown above, could easily be nothing more than random posts dressed up as breadcrumbs

I've got to disagree with this one. If MM is faking he did a rather good job of setting up his claim.

Not seeing it myself, especially for Day 3, and especially if Pickem is also scum - the claimed Day 3 crumb could easily have been originally intended as a way of getting off/delaying the bus, then later reinterpreted as a breadcrumb.

Day 2 is a somewhat stronger claimed crumb, but even that could be a reinterpretation of a post originally intended as a way to get onto a Tar wagon.

I find scum mason Godfather a little out of whack for a Normal game

You haven't investigated either mason. This point is moot to say the least.

Definition of a Normal game + several uncommon roles + game balance issues says otherwise (explain how Godfather-Mason plus 3 other scum plus three double-edged power roles [town Mason, Overeager Vig, FBI Agent] in a 15-player game is not at least somewhat unbalanced in the mafia's favor, even with cop+doc?).

You *could* also be an SK who decided to hold fire, but I have my doubts.

Are you joking Gorrad already claimed the third party deaths.

It's extremely unlikely but still a possibility (would require a third NK attempt on N1 that was blocked by either TS or ABR). I have seen an SK with optional kill hold fire for most of a game before - namely, The Fonz as Kinsey in Stargate SG-1.

[Tarhalindur]

Now, a far more important note:

Scum can win by deadline lynch by voting for me shortly before deadline hits. They can also win by stalling into No Lynch and killing me tonight.

As it now stands, I may need ,to switch to pushing a Pickem lynch on the grounds that if Pickem is town we've probably already lost (to shaft.ed/MM) because we can't lynch scum today. I will consider this overnight and post again tomorrow.

[Tarhalindur]

I'm almost inclined to go with Tar simply because he has the decency to post. At this time I would be willing to lynch MM. But I will not vote to avoid a scum quicklynch in case I am wrong. I will definitely be around before deadline to place a vote.

Can someone please look at my math I posted previous. Does it make the most sense to be lynching from the claimed cops at this point?

MM does have what looks to be breadcrumbs, while Tar claimed rather early so he didn't have to worry about them.

Tar do you have anything prior to your claim to hint at your role?

You did read my big summary post, right? The one where I pointed out several crumbs on Day 2? There's none from Day 1, though, because I was almost entirely inactive during Day 1

Definition of a Normal game + several uncommon roles + game balance issues says otherwise (explain how Godfather-Mason plus 3 other scum plus three double-edged power roles [town Mason, Overeager Vig, FBI Agent] in a 15-player game is not at least somewhat unbalanced in the mafia's favor, even with cop+doc?).

Again, you have yet to investigate a mason. I'm quite curious why you would claim there is a Godfather Mason when you have yet to investigate one.

I'm going to give you the benefit of the doubt here and conclude that you misread my post here. I'm saying that it is EXTREMELY DOUBTFUL that there is a mason Godfather for game balance reasons (which is why, if there is a Godfather in the game, it's you).

[Tarhalindur]

Their lack of activity leads me to be more suspicious of lurking to the deadline.

The only reason I bring up PEG over MM is that I feel pretty strong about them needing to be the combo, but that I am less comfortable lynching a claimed cop. Though if he's paranoid, then I suppose that doesn't mean much. Waiting on MM's answer to my question.

shaft.ed, tar, if everyone were L-1 right now, who would you want hammered.?

If everyone was at L-1 I would want MM lynched, for what are hopefully obvious reasons. As it stands, I'm 99.9% sure that MM is scum and only ~70% sure that pickem is scum (other 30% is shaft.ed).

Unfortunately, as it stands, after thinking it over, I don't think we're going to get a lynch unless pickem is scum. In the interests of trying to get a scum lynch today...

Unvote, Vote: pickemgenius

If the scum are shaft.ed and MM, I congratulate them on winning through lurkerkilling.

[Tarhalindur]

Thank you, Guardian.

The two possible situations which lead me to say 99.9% sure that MM is scum: paranoid daycop miller (good call, Surye!) and framer + other mafia power (framer scum mason or framer godfather; unlikely but possible)

In other news, shaft.ed just cleared himself of being the lynch for today as if he was paired scum he would have just won the game. If he is scum (which is now a rather low possibility) then he has to be the only member of his faction, in which case we deal with him tomorrow.

I'm pretty sure that the scum are the players formerly known as MM and pickem, Surye possible but somewhat unlikely (his Rosso PBPA looked fairly legit on my last read, and my gut tells me Surye isn't the kind of player who's likely to bus that heavily). I'm rereading now to check my conclusions.

Unvote, Vote: Machiavellian Mafia

because I know that vote is safe.

[Tarhalindur]

Congratulations, Surye. Turns out that you do play scum like I do.

Also, worst Tar play ever. I mean EVER.

[Tarhalindur]

And yea, I wouldn't say I bussed MM, there was NO other action I could take. Tar was going to die that night, or he would investigate me, and if he died as was shown as sane, I would be doomed if I didn't vote MM/stark.

Personally, I wish there were a couple more odd combos, does a town RB stop NKs? Cause then the lack of mafia power roles seems inconsequential for the meta-breaking aspect.

Surye, you didn't wn because of the MM bus, IMO. You won because you bussed the hell out of Rosso at the end of D2. That's what convinced me you were town in the end (my last night choice was pickem/skruffs in the expectation he would come up scum if I somehow lived).