Mini 539: Game over

[Jester]

Hi all. I'm replacing in for Apyadg.

In the midst of my read right now (I'm at post 139), and taking rather extensive notes. I suspect I'm going to have a lot of questions. First things first, though: Justin, I might very well call in the implied marker in your sig, now that I've replaced into this game.

From what I have read so far, it seems I owe the game an apology for my predecessor. I'm not a big fan of playing mafia in a hostile way, and there's no question that's what my predecessor was doing, at least in the early game. In particular, I want to disavow my predecessor's post 70, which is ridiculously hostile for so early in a game. A couple of people jumped on him kind of hard for that post, and in my view, rightly so, though I'd also throw out a caution that a lot of people seemed to be offended more by the tone of what he posted than what he actually posted.

That said, I think posts 65 through 76 were really enlightening. Incognito had already coolly weathered an early somewhat harsh attack by ChronX (later shown to be scum) by that time, which predisposed me to think him a townie, and his rip on my predecessor actually strengthened that impression. Then Justin's very balanced approach to looking at both sides throughout the exchange also makes me think he's a townie, too. So, even though the two of you kind of argued a little out of that, right now, both of you strike me as pro-town players. Then Ythill jumped into it and made it a three-way battle and both of you stood up well to

that

, too.

I'm sorry that Ythill isn't in the game any more. I really liked his play style and he's clearly sharp as hell. That's obviously why he was night-killed, and the fact that he was a vig was probably just a bonus for the mafia. Doesn't mean I agree with all his opinions, though. Sometimes the smartest person in the world follows their instincts right off a cliff.

It might describe a good scumhunter but not in a way that would be more indicative than information the scum already have. A good scumhunter, necessarily, is one who correctly identifies scum and effectively convinces townies to vote them. Knowing their own identities, the scum are the best readers of who is a good scumhunter and it is information they gain from us posting our suspicions.

I thought this was very interesting, in context. It's accurate... as far as it goes. But it doesn't go far enough. I've won lots of games for the town by dying young, particularly when I've laid out who I think is suspect and why, then gotten killed for it (in not one but two games, I got mafia NK'ed and SK'ed in the same night!). As a result, I reject Ho1den's early position that laying down all your cards is bad. It might be bad for you personally, but it's never bad for the town. It might be a bit early to say, but right now, my instinct is that Ythill is a better scum-hunter in death than he was in life.

If some of my theories are shown to be dead-wrong later (if Ythill claimed, or something), then I apologize in advance. As I said, so far, I've only read to 139. More from me soon.

::gets back to work::

[Jester]

Still in the midst of my read. My God, this is an incredibly dense game! Huge enormous posts, huge enormous egos. I'm at post 275. I hope to be finished by tomorrow or the next day.

I'm still going to have lots of notes and questions about the full game, but a thread that happened in the mid-game, between posts 200 and 275, really interests me and I think it deserves some separate comments, and that is the attacks that were centered on Ythill and Disciple Slayer.

Ythill, charter, and DS are my Top Three at the moment, with Ho1den clawing his way towards them. Now, I realize that all 4 of you aren't scum, but I'd be willing to bet my right eye that two of you are.

Very interesting, in context! Two of those four are now dead, confirmed townie power roles. You traded in Ho1den for SSK in the post immediately following. Still willing to bet that right eye, kuribo? If so, to keep it, both Hjallti and Gorgon have to be scum. Still, I'm willing to rack this up as over-reaching, because I really really liked your 211 otherwise. Brought me a lot of insight to the early game.

Some of you may think this was too quick a play. I disagree and I really hope I’m right about it.

It was far too quick a play, and you were totally wrong about it. Martyrs are anti-town. Just, you know, FYI.

I am perplexed. I have no idea what to do any more. Mass RC, anyone?

I have to admit... one of my first games, I made an incredibly stupid error. I took something someone said that sounded

exactly

like this, and built a whole case around the fact that he must be scum for saying it. I then convinced the town that I was right, and we went on to lynch... our doctor. The person who said it? Aheh. Nanosauromo. Sorry about that, Nano. I've gotten much better at this game since then. I hope.

Sometimes the smartest person in the world follows their instincts right off a cliff.

I swear I hadn't read posts 218 through 257 when I wrote this. It now sure seems prophetic to me. There's lots of arguments in that series of posts (particularly with JP and Incognito involved) about whether Ythill realized that his "strategy #4" completely failed if Incognito was a townie. Ythill claims not to have thought of the possibility. Incognito and JP go to great lengths not to want to believe it. But I believe it completely. Smart people, even really logical smart people, get so wrapped up in their own assumptions that they don't even see them any more. I see it nearly every single day where I work. Ythill just followed his instincts right off a cliff, that's all.

an impassioned plea for Ythill's blood

Wow. And I mean that. Wow. My notes for 232 read, quote, "Either really really smart or really really stupid". And what I mean by this, is this impassioned howling for Ythill's blood on Incognito's part in these two posts, even as the DS band-wagon was gaining steam, was incredibly ballsy.
:arrow: Assume for a moment that Incognito is scum. He knows Ythill is innocent. He probably has no reason to doubt Ythill's claim. There's a little bit of a movement for Ythill's lynch, but there's no momentum behind it. Incognito has got to know that if he drives forward the lynch so vehemently, championining it so loudly, when Ythill is so clearly targeting him, that when Ythill

is

lynched and then turns up innocent, he's going to die quick, fast, and horrible. He can maybe try arguing his death is too obvious, but it probably ain't gonna work. For a scum, it's an incredibly ballsy play, and relies on the town lynching someone else,

anyone

else. No sure thing at that point in the game, that's for sure!
:arrow: Now assume that Incognito is town. When Ythill turns up innocent, what did he say? "Ooops."? Hee! I haven't gotten there in my reading, but I can't wait to read this. I certainly hope someone else pointed out this obvious problem, particularly given the pointing out of logic flaws that made posts 218 through 257 such a slog. For a townie, it's again an incredibly ballsy play because Incognito apparently gives no thought whatsoever to what happens to him if... and I know this is crazy... if Ythill is telling the truth. 'cept for the minor problem that Ythill

was

telling the truth! Only a truly innocent, pure, crusading for scum blood townie could fail to miss this minor problem.

In short, these two posts scream to anyone who can read them, "Hi! My name is Incognito and I'm either the most scummy scum that ever walked the earth, or I'm the towniest townie in the history of Mafiascum! There's no middle ground whatsoever! Really! kthxbai!" Wow.

The thing that really makes this interesting, though, is JP's almost immediate follow-up, his 274, in which, he writes (among other things):

All right. I have a much longer case on Disciple Slayer than the below. But...

Let's assume for a few seconds that JP and Incognito are

both

scum. If that's the case, you two deserve some kind of prize for the most elegant tag-team in the history of Mafiascum. Incognito throws down this extremely ballsy (and incredibly pro-town-appearing) howl for Ythill's blood. Then JP follows up with a carefully crafted attack on DS. An attack, it must be pointed out, that's built on virtually nothing at all! Except for that casual little line: "I have a much longer case on DS than the below." Neat, right? It's the ultimate mafia good-cop-bad-cop. Who does the town believe? The zealot? Or the calm, reasoned politician? If you guys

are

both scum, brav-f***ing-o.

Of course, both attacks were on pro-town power roles! I can't wait to read how and why both of you are not only still alive, but also apparently not even suspects. Bet it's interesting! My current feeling is still that you're both townies, but I will be interested to see why the rest of the town apparently thinks so!

Anyway, still reading. Again, hope to be done tomorrow or the next day.

[Jester]

Hi all,

I have now finished my read! Yay! As I said before, incredibly dense, cluttered game. I think I'm going to have to go back and do a second read to pick apart some of the long,

long

posts that some people here like to hit us with ( ::looks at Justin Playfair in particular:: ). That said, let's talk about what I think about the game as of now. This is a series of three posts to cut down post length, so I'm sorry for the triple post.

Here's post #1.

Let me start by saying that I'm not even going to attempt to defend or justify my predecessor taking his vote off MafiaSSK. I would have left it on until I found someone better to vote for or until the votee made a deliberate attempt to address my concerns. Neither of those things appear to have happened. The only thing I can point to is that Apyadg is somewhat inexperienced at this game (107 posts total, according to his profile). So, I wouldn't have removed the vote and Apyadg did. I don't know why he did. And that's all I'm gonna say about that. </Gump> If anyone has any other questions about my predecessor's play other than this or his hostility (which I addressed in my first post), throw 'em over and I'll do my best to answer them.

Now, before I start with my own suspicions, I should start with some assumptions. When I came into this game, the first post I read was #0, which listed the players, dead and alive, and how the dead ones died and when. I then make my own assumptions about game balance. In a 12-person game with few power-roles, 3 scum and 9 townies is balanced. But this game had a vig and a doctor, both dead, and two people have claimed pro-town mason. You don't put a doc in a game without giving him someone to protect, which means there's probably a cop in here, too. That means we've probably got lots of power roles. We've got two dead bodies, and one of them is Ythill's. Ythill's final word was "woot!", which leads me to believe that he fired the shot that killed Claus, despite the fact that he gave

no

indication that Claus was going to be his target. In most games, all kills are simultaneous so I don't think the mafia could have prevented Ythill's vig. There almost certainly isn't a mafia RB, because if there were, they certainly would have blocked Ythill.

However, Xtoxm brought up the possibility of a SK, and I have to say I agree with him, at least a little (and I'm ready to take the heat for doing so). The reason I do is for two reasons:
:arrow: because of

how

Ythill was killed. Tied to the railroad tracks? Ew. And...
:arrow: As I said, game balance. If Incognito and SSK are telling the truth, there are potentially five pro-town power roles. That's a lot. I can't see a four-scum mafia in a 12-person game. That would be hugely unbalancing. So three mafia against five pro-town power-roles? Xtoxm is right. That's hugely unbalanced, too.

Before anyone bitches that there should have been three kills on night one, I can see a couple of potential SK situations that don't disrupt the night one kills. Here's the easiest: Ythill did indeed shoot Claus. But Ythill himself was tied to the train tracks by the SK, not the mafia. But who did the mafia kill, you ask? Ythill, of course. It just wasn't obvious in the examination of Ythill's body. I've been simultaneously SK'ed and mafia NK'ed in games before. Only sometimes does the mod make a double attack apparent, and Ythill invited such a double attack. So, let's not discount the possibility of a SK just yet, k?

I can see three balanced possibilities:
:arrow: The doc was included to protect the vig, we have

no

cop, and we started with three mafia scum. Two mafia left, no SK.
:arrow: We have both a vig and a cop, plus the mason claim is true, and we started with three mafia scum and a SK. Two mafia and a SK left.
:arrow: We have both a vig and a cop, the mason claim is only semi-true, and we either have a mafia mason or a cult. Insanely complicated for a mini normal, but a possibility. Two mafia left, plus the mafia mason/cult.
And of course, the game could be

un

balanced. It could include five pro-town power roles and three scum, and just be badly unbalanced in favor of the town. I'm in favor of that.

All of THAT said, this will be my last pro-active post on game setup until the night two evidence comes in. But right now, my money's on us seeing two kills on night two. If SSK had claimed to be pro-town mason, I would have scoffed, but it's Incognito that did, and I think he's pro-town, so for now, I'm inclined to believe the claim (which means that I have to believe Incognito when he vouches for MafiaSSK). I'll cover more of that in post #2. So for now, until I have good reason to think otherwise, I'm hunting with the assumption that there could be three scum left.

[Jester]

Post #2.

So, claims. Lots of them. Ythill's, as I mentioned a couple of posts ago, was a mistake. It was a mistake not only because it came too early, but because Ythill apparently didn't even contemplate the possibility of a mafia RB. I didn't mention a 4th or a 5th balanced setup that this game could have had:
:arrow: Doc, cop, vig, two masons, four townies, mafia GF, mafia, mafia RB.
:arrow: Doc, vig, two masons, five townies, mafia, mafia, mafia RB.
...because we don't have a mafia RB. If we did, he certainly would have blocked Ythill's kill.

I proceed from the assumption that Ythill

did

kill Claus. The kill method is consistent with a vig, and Ythill's death post started with "woot!". I take this woot as a bread-crumb: Ythill shot, and hit, the target he wanted to hit. But why shoot Claus, and not Incognito or Shteven, who Ythill was suspicious of for so long? To answer that question, I think we go back to Ythill's post 471, which weirdly, nobody has brought up!

In that post, Ythill has four major suspects and two minor ones:
:arrow: Claus. "Either he's scum or Justin is," Ythill says, "for reasons that will be apparent during a reread." The reasons, I believe, are the very credible argument between the two of them centered on posts 315 and 382. These two are pretty clearly not on the same side. A very smart read on Ythill's part (though see my post #3).
:arrow: Incognito. Though it's clear that Ythill's convictions had wavered about Incognito. Ythill suggests reading Incognito's defenses in light of Ythill's attacks after Ythill's death, but Ythill had a blind spot in seeing every post as an attack or a defense or a nothing. MS isn't that clear-cut.
:arrow: Justin. He's also clearly conflicted about Justin, and suggests that the cop (if any) investigate him.
:arrow: Shteven. Of Shteven, Ythill says, "the majority of the tells I uncovered regarding he and his predecessor were dropped while defending and under pressure which, IMO, makes them less reliable". I disagree. In my experience, tells dropped under pressure are the most reliable... if you know how to read them.
:arrow: On the low end, my predecessor. Ythill admits, "I’m very wary of the case against him because of my current suspicions." A key line. I'll come back to it in a sec.
:arrow: Also on the low end, Xtoxm. "His late D1 play taints him a bit", Ythill says. I agree. More from me on this in my post #3.

So, if we are to assume that Ythill killed Claus, why did he do that? I think there are three reasons:
:arrow: Why not Incognito? Because he'd either: a) come to doubt his position on Incognito, or b) felt that on his death, Incognito's scumminess would become so self-apparent that he'd be wasting a bullet on Incognito. I've already given my own position on Incognito: he's either the scummiest scum ever to walk the earth, or he's the towniest townie in this game's history, with no middle ground. I currently believe his claim, and am therefore pushed into the latter camp. So, either Ythill shoots a townie, or the town does the job on Incognito for him. Either way, no need to put a vig bullet here.
:arrow: Why not Shteven? Again, it's clear that Ythill came to doubt his own case on Shteven. I think Shteven is scummy, for reasons that I'll detail in my post #3, but Ythill clearly doubted himself here.
:arrow: Why Claus? I think Claus turned the vig gun on himself with his nice/naughty list. Who built the primary case against my predecessor? Justin. Who was on Claus's naughty list... BOTH Justin and Apyadg! I think Ythill looked at Claus's naughty list, saw both Justin and Apyadg on it, and concluded that either both JP and myself were scum, or Claus was scum. Justin built the case against me, and Claus directly referred to JP's case in putting me on his naughty list... but then put JP on his naughty list as well! Claus believed someone on his own naughty list? A clear contradiction. That's why Ythill said he came to doubt the case against me, and why he said either Claus is dirty or Justin is. It was a signal to the town that if Ythill shot Claus and Claus turned up town... that we should turn our collective eyes toward either Incognito and JP, or JP and myself. "If he [Apyadg, now me] dies and comes up town, put Incog and Justin in the hot seat," Ythill said.

It was a very nice, logical play. With one shooting, you get good information about four players.

In Ythill's view

, if Claus turns up scum, JP is in the clear, and Incognito and myself are probably in the clear. If Claus turns up town, JP and myself are almost certainly scum, and Incognito is probably scum. I'm not sure I agree with that view, but the logic holds together. It was a righteous shooting. Nice job, Ythill.

If anyone reads 471 differently, please let me know. I think it's an important post because it's the last thing we'll get from Ythill in this game.

So much for claims. Now on to my suspicions. That's post #3.

[Jester]

I'll put my post #3 out tomorrow, all. Have to get some work done today at some point, too.

[Jester]

A brief delay before my post #3, which I promise will be up within the hour. But there's a clump of it that doesn't really fit with the rest, and I felt like it made more sense to separate that clump into its own post.

I feel his interaction with Claus was particularily damning.

Could you go into more detail here?

SSK hasn't denied the claim, so that means they are indeed both masons, or both scum. The second possibility is too remote to address today.

I agree with this, with one little caveat. Let's assume for a minute that Incognito and SSK are telling the truth. If this is the case, Incognito has been a very good scum-hunter. MafiaSSK has been a very poor scum-hunter, possibly the worst I've ever seen. The mafia aren't going to kill MafiaSSK because that would confirm Incognito's claim. They might kill Incognito, except that would confirm MafiaSSK's claim, leave the rest of us with a confirmed townie, and put the mafia in the position of probably having to waste a NK on a useless, but confirmed townie. Either way, that gives the town a confirmed-innocent townie. Therefore, killing either of them is not a good play for the mafia. Better to leave some of us in doubt. Therefore, I can't see the mafia NKing either Incognito or MafiaSSK, at least not tonight.

Now let's assume they're both lying. In that case, they're also both obviously not going to be NKed, unless there's an SK. So, this mason claim could be a very clever claim indeed, one intended to throw the town into turmoil for the next couple of days while the two of them sit safely in their "presumed townie" status. I think this is unlikely... but "too remote to address today"? No.

If the town gets desperate and can find no better targets, it might be instructive to lynch MafiaSSK. He's completely useless as a scum-hunter, and lynching him would either definitely prove or definitely disprove Incognito's innocence. If Incognito is innocent, the mafia would

have

to respond by killing him the next night, but if we kept that day going for a while, we could potentially learn some really interesting things, plus all of Incognito's (long) posts would be confirmed as truth as he sees it. Right now, MafiaSSK might be worth more to the town dead than alive.

Want to get into the game, MafiaSSK? I'd appreciate it. Thanks.

[Jester]

Post #3.

OK, who do I think is suspicious? In rough order:

Shteven.

kuribo makes the beginning of a great case for the Shteven lynch in his post 563. I found myself nodding pretty much all the way through it. My own case for being suspicious of Shteven, in addition to what kuribo points out:
:arrow: Northjayhawk got on a very early Xtoxm band-wagon, apparently randomly (16). Then, when questioned on it, he suddenly said it was a serious vote and went out of his way to justify it (39). Then, when he was pressured on this, he tried to defend himself (101), then flipped this post into a weird little justification against "arguing for innocence", which made no sense to me. Ythill (correctly) called him out on it, and his response was an over-reaction to say the least (135). I really feel like NJH felt like he was digging himself into a hole, and abandoned the game rather than try to defend his questionable actions.
:arrow: Then Shteven jumped in, and his own play, if anything, started out even weirder. Here's an excerpt from his 163:

I am never happy to mislynch anyone. I've mislynched townies after they claimed a power role, then re-claimed a non-power role and admitted to lying. It's still a dead townie. However, mislynches are designed into the game. There's a reason town outnumbers scum (roughly, depending on setup) 3:1. You just can't be right all the time. Some mislynches are worse than others. I would never be proud of it, but I think a MafiaSSK mislynch wouldn't be as bad as some others, mainly due to the shallowness of his answers.

I'm trying really hard

not

to read this as, "Yes, MafiaSSK would be a mislynch, but it would be a

good

mislynch!" Ummmm...

huh?

:arrow: More minor to me, but interesting: as kuribo correctly points out, Shteven was the champion of the DS lynch (275), and was ranked high on Claus's nice list. What kuribo misses: Shteven immediately agreed with most of Claus's lists (317)... until Claus was found to be scum, at which point, Shteven felt there was limited value to looking at the lists (476). None of these are scum tells in and of themselves, but combined with everything else, none of them look particularly good.
:arrow: I found Shteven's defense from kuribo's 563 (567 and 570) to be over-defensive. In particular, he says:

Funny, that was exactly my point. Maybe, maybe not. Maybe Claus is a cross dresser*, maybe he isn't. You have to -show- that he is or isn't. Just saying "Well he might be" is not helpful in the least.

Tell me, Shteven, how do you go about proving a negative? Suspicion is what this game is all about. Only rarely do scum stand up and proclaim themselves as scum, so all you

can

do is lay out suspicions, say people might be scum, and proceed from there. For you to argue that kuribo can't or shouldn't play this way is specious at best, damning at the worst. You also gloss over the point that kuribo listed lots of suspicious activity in his 563, not just the fact that you appeared on Claus's nice list. kuribo correctly points this out in his 573.
:arrow: Finally, and this is a lot harder to pin to a single post, but Shteven's play has been... slippery. Initially, he was very gung-ho for a Ythill lynch, and a lot of this play felt very OMGUS-y. He listed three initial targets (Apyadg, Ythill, and ChronX) but his cases against Apyadg and ChronX were extremely weak, leading to a Ythill vote. When that didn't go anywhere and Ythill claimed, suddenly Shteven's suspicions became completely unanchored. He had suspicions at various times during this period for (deep breath) Apyadg, Incognito, Xtoxm, ChronX, MafiaSSK, charter, and finally, Disciple Slayer. That's more than half the players. Then he seemed to wait, and went into a councilor/adviser kind of play-style, until the DS band-wagon started gaining steam. And now he seems to be trying to settle back into that councilor/adviser role for day two. I find people who do this scummy.

So, really long explanation for my

vote: Shteven

.

Who else?

Hjallti

. His play has been incredibly off the radar. Ythill kept describing Ho1den as "definitive townie" or whatever, but never really justified it, something that I thought was kind of odd. I found Ho1den's play to be really off:
:arrow: In the early game, he joined the Xtoxm band-wagon with ChronX and MafiaSSK (25), but then took a blast from ChronX for doing it (49)! An early obvious inconsistency from ChronX. What's suspicious is that ChronX's attack on Ho1den was rather mild, but Ho1den's defense was

very

graceful, almost elegant (56). It pinged my scumdar rather hard.
:arrow: For the rest of the early- to mid-game, Ho1den was content to sit back, voice no suspicions about anybody, but instead just chide this person or that person on their play. JP got chided in post 80, DS got chided in 91, Xtoxm and SSK got chided in 149. It was like Ho1den was just hanging back, coaching people. Ho1den even admits to it... but doesn't stop doing it. Who'd he admit it to? ChronX.
:arrow: Then Ho1den received a massive defense from Ythill in Ythill's 167 ("Ho1den is the towniest mofo in our bunch, IMO.") which I felt was completely unjustified. How Ythill came to this conclusion on the strength of 15 posts, most of them of the "coaching" variety, I don't know.
:arrow: Then Ho1den drops out, there's a long,

long

gap, then Hjallti jumps into the slot. He says "I just went reading day 1, a long read! I will comment when I have time." Then... doesn't. Then, when he finally comments, starts with day two!
:arrow: His play since then has been of the NFL color commentator variety.

So, early play was very suspicious to me, later play has done nothing to reassure me about it.

Gorgon

. Talk about flying under the radar!
:arrow: charter had a grand total of 11 posts! Two of them struck me as particularly odd, 96 and 112. In 96, charter wants to know why Ythill thinks he's "definitive town." So do I. It was a perfect opportunity for charter to comment on someone -- anyone! -- else on the list Ythill posted. He didn't, other than mentioning that Ythill also felt that Ho1den was also definitive town. Nothing about anyone else. Scumdar ping. 112, though, was even worse. In it, he chides Apyadg for not asking questions of players in this game. Guess how many questions charter had asked of people in the game up to that point. Two. One of Apyadg ("Why did you remove your vote from MafiaSSK?"), one of Ythill ("Why do you think Ho1den and I are definitive town?"). Inconsistent, to say the least.
:arrow: Gorgon has 6 posts, one of which is "hi" and another of which is "too busy to play." Of the remaining four, I have questions about them. One, I posted in my previous post (why does he think the interactions between Claus and Apyadg were particularly damning?). I want to hear the answer to this before I start asking my others.

Anyway, my current feeling is that charter/Gorgon is too far under the radar. More after I get my first Gorgon question answered.


And finally, kind of a hail mary. I mentioned that I currently completely believe that JP and Claus were on opposite teams. I still believe that. My current belief is that JP is pro-town. But if we

do

end up with two bodies on night two, I think it would be interesting to reevaluate JP from the stand-point of him possibly being an SK. And I have to admit my reasoning on this is a little touchy-feely.

Countries routinely build war-plans on how they would fight anyone and everyone. There was a recent Real Life Comics comic about this which I think illustrates this neatly. I occasionally see MS players go this route, and they always turn out to be something other than what they appear at first glance. JP puts out an enormous amount of text, but as I was taking notes on his play, I finally realized that he's playing just this way (I think it finally struck me when he got around to doing Xtoxm in his 407). He's put out at least one such post about everyone's suspicious play. JP, are you suspicious of

everybody

? If so, why? I'd second Ythill's earlier nomination. If there's a cop, investigating JP would be a great choice.

Don't read too much into that right now. Right now, I think JP is town. But if we end up with two night two bodies, I think it's worth a close look.

And that's it for my suspicions for now. One more post to catch up with stuff since I joined, and I think I'm caught up! Yay!

[Jester]

This is a terrible play: If Incog is telling the truth, then both he and Mafia are town. If we lynch MafiaSSK, then the scum can kill Incog tonight, and we've lost two confirmed townies. On the other hand, if we keep hunting scum, then at best, they can only kill ONE confirmed townie.

::nods:: I recognize this. Like I said, it's a desperation play, not a first (or second, or even third) resort.

I feel like a lot of people are being influenced by Incognito, which is fine if he's town. If he's not, though... That's why I'm thinking if we get desperate, that will be a possible way to confirm his townie-ness.

[Jester]

OK... now to catch up with stuff that's happened since I joined the game. As a result, this post picks up around page 24, post 587.

Shteven says it is odd that Ythill attacked CLaus. Do we know that as a fact? If there is a mafia-role blocker, he would have targetted Ythill, the SK could have targetted Claus meanwhile. What is the likelyhood of this?

Yes, we do know that Ythill verbally attacked Claus, in his post 471, as I mentioned previously. I agree that if there's a mafia RB, that RB would have blocked Ythill. I don't believe that a SK (if any) attacked Claus because of the death method, "shot in the back of the head," I believe. This is a kill method consistent with a vig or the mafia. SK kills are usually quite a bit more dramatic.

The rest of this post, as I mentioned earlier, is pure NFL color commentator. You make

no

attempt to provide your own suspicions, Hjallti, other than snarking about kuribo. You're not outside of this game, commenting in. You're in this game. Start acting like it. Who are you suspicious of, and why? Will you be doing a page 1 recap as you promised? JP calls you on this in his 601, correctly.

Unless...If an SK AND mafia targetted Ythill, and a doc protected, would the overkill still kill him, or would the doc's protection save from both? I assume it's the latter, it makes more sense.

Huh. Interesting theory. Overly complicated for a mini normal, in my view, but still... interesting. And in my experience, a doc protect works against only one kill, not two.

Claus’ treatment of Apyadg is extremely gentle, given his handling of me and Incognito.

Granted, it's self-serving of me to say so, but this struck me as pack-following on Claus's part. Even the post that you quote in your 602 has explicit pack-following right in it. From reading Claus's "attacks" on Apyadg, they were mostly based on your own suspicions, as I've already said. More pack-following, in other words. I can understand what you're saying about Claus going easy on Apyadg, but I don't have a good response to it. I'm not sure why Claus would do that, other than to appear politic to the town.

I fall into this pitfall constantly. I wouldn't say I really drove DS by myself in this game day 1, but I was certainly a significant part of it.

You don't give yourself enough credit. You were the major champion behind DS's lynch, going back to your 271 and 275. The only person who jumped on the bandwagon earlier was kuribo, who was first to vote DS, but I don't think anyone pounded the drum harder. Even JP's case was based more on innuendo than real evidence. Tell me, if you

knew

you had a history of championing day 1 mislynches (as you state in your 275), why did you bang the drum on this one so confidently? The back half second-to-last para of 275

really

sounds to me like something you inserted so you could point back to it after you got a townie killed.

3. Calls MafiaSSK scummy for his joke (= a lie)

This is interesting that you say this. I'm not

quite

a policy lyncher on this issue, but I have a

very

strong tendency toward lynch-all-liars. I find people that joke that they're lying do it as a bread-crumb so if they're caught lying later in the game, they have a fall-back position ("I was joking!"). I'd definitely have a FOS on MafiaSSK right now if Incognito wasn't vouching for him.

1) What do you mean by if you know how to read them? I wouldn't mind some useful tips on how to find scum if you're willing to teach your secrets
2) What then, do you think of me? What tells in particular did you see and is there any confusion I can clear up/questions that need an answer?

I believe I've now answered both of these questions in my 629. In particular, I found your 567 and 570 to be really over-defensive. And see my next post.

Jester, I may have missed this but what are your feelings about Xtoxm?

Doh! No, you didn't miss it. I was going to include some notes about Xtoxm in my post 629 and forgot to. Xtoxm is kind of a puzzle. My initial read on him was newbie-town, particularly after the string of posts from 199 to 205. His join date seemed to confirm that feeling, so I let him slide off my radar for a while. His 270 kind of bothered me, but I forgot about that too (until later, when my suspicions started turning in Shteven's direction). Then, he got that very non sequitur defense from Claus (315), which again quieted my concerns, not so much because of the defense but because of his response to it (316), which struck me as a VERY unlikely thing for one scum to write to another scum.

He stayed off my radar until his 411:

At this point nothing a potential DS replacement says will change my opinion of him.

This struck initially me as something only a newbie scum, and a rather smug newbie scum, would say. He followed it with "This is getting a bit boring waiting. Surely we are ready to lynch DS/Apyadg...Replacements will be ok coming in on day 2 wont they?" (428) which strengthened that impression. Very soon after that was his 438, which also struck me as smug. The weird thing about it was that he hadn't even mentioned Apyadg among his suspects... until his 444 when suddenly, there he was, with no reasons stated. As a matter of fact, the only times he's mentioned Apy was when asking what the case against him was. If anyone directly answered him, I didn't see it. Am I being self-serving again? Probably. But this is isn't just my interpretation, I don't think; I think it's what happened.

So... yeah. Ythill nailed it. Xtoxm's early play led me to believe he was a townie, but his late day one play taints him. He's not in my top three right now, but he could move there.

In my defense neither were here very much until replacements. In a greater sense (and especially clear, I know, if you’ve metaed me) I do tend to suspect everyone, and sometimes (though I don’t think in this game) it diminishes my ability to effectively scum hunt.

I didn't do a meta search, but fair enough. As I said, for now, it's a hail mary long-shot. But I wanted to mention it because of my past experiences with people who suspect

everybody

.

You mention a couple times that you found Ythill’s clearing of Ho1den to be odd. But since we now know Ythill was town why would you characterize it this way as opposed to baseless or perhaps incorrect or something along those lines? Or do you see some possible ulterior motive in Ythill’s statements regarding Ho1den?

Just because Ythill was town doesn't make his opinions about everyone right. No, I don't see anything suspicious about it. It's just that Ythill didn't scrutinize Ho1den's play the way he did a lot of other people's, but instead just accepted what Ho1den said at face value.

634 starts Shteven's defense against my 629 and this post is getting a little long, so I'm gonna hit the pause button here. More from me shortly, either later today or tomorrow morning.

[Jester]

Sorry for the delay in the rest of my post. Hitting a critical point in one of my other games, plus busy at work. I'll finish what I started tomorrow, promise.

[Jester]

I don't see how he can believably have a problem with what I've said. Also, I specifically said it would bad to mislynch; calling it a "good lynch" is a big jump from "some mislynches are worse than others".

You missed my point. You specifically called it "a MafiaSSK mislynch." It's only a mislynch if he's not scum. It's the sort of bread-crumb I've seen used by scum before. A scum advocates lynching player X, but cautions it could be a mislynch. Town lynches X. X turns up townie. Scum says, "well, I said it could be a mislynch." Most townies don't say this sort of thing, content to just say "X is scum" and leave it at that. As I mention in my 663, you did this in your 275 when you championed the DS mislynch, too.

If there are more attacks from posts other than 563, please let me know.

There's a couple, yeah:
:arrow: The fact that you championed the DS lynch (275). I brought this up in my 629. You did address why you did it, in your 576, but it took some pushing and some time (100 posts and more than three weeks after DS's lynch) to get it out of you. My major question about this is at the bottom of this post.
:arrow: You say about the Claus interaction "I already mentioned where we disagreed." Again, I mention this in my 629. This was your 317 where you mostly agreed, and disagreed on a couple of people. What struck me about the interaction, though, was that you mostly agreed with Claus until he unexpectedly turned up both scum and dead, then suddenly you didn't think there was much value to the lists. So I'll put it to you straight. Look at Claus's list again.

Do you still mostly agree with who he thought was town, and who he thought was scum?

It's hard to shake the feeling that if Claus were still alive, the two of you would still be merrily working together to get people on Claus's naughty list strung up... like you did DS.

That's

what's bothering me about the interaction. Who on that list would have been next? Me? MafiaSSK? Incognito? So yeah, #5 could "use some more discussion", as you put it.

Anyways, roughly 100% of the active players here were on the DS lynch as well - he was very scummy looking.

Ummm... the "case" against DS was built on two posts, out of nine total posts. I think it's hard to argue that DS was anything except a target of frustration (on the town's part) and opportunism (on the scum's). He was also long inactive by the time he was lynched. There's roughly 250 posts and three weeks between DS's last post and his lynching, with no success in getting him a replacement even before a band-wagon started on him. Had DS been there to defend himself, I don't think he would have gotten lynched on the "strength" of those two posts.

I had to find some two - so I picked the best I could at the time. The cases were weak. When Ythill claimed one-shot vig - I believed him. That basically put me at square zero. I have since talked about nearly everyone in the game - I think that you should discuss everyone. For example: I just called JP a SK possibility (if we have one), so is he now someone I've targeted? I haven't seriously pressed cases on anyone but Ythill and DS. Granted, not the best accuracy, but that's only one mislynch. I believed Ythill by the end of the day.

Fair enough. You've had lots more time now.
:arrow: Why do you think JP is a SK?
:arrow: Who else do you suspect, and why? kuribo, presumably, for one. Why? Who else?

As for Northjayhawk, he was acting scummy, you agree he was acting scummy. It's not anything you can address (you're not Northjayhawk, I don't think), but it's something that you have to live with for the rest of the game, just as I have to live with people who think Apyadg was scummy.

To be honest, no. I no longer feel that this statement of mine was accurate. It was an impression that I had - one that I don't have any more, after looking into things better.

Alrighty. I have a couple more questions for you, but I want to do a re-read of your posts before posing them.

I find your answers to Jesters' and kuribo's case to be pretty credible. I don't find the case to be strong, and can elaborate on this in detail if anyone wants me to.

I agree that my own case isn't rock-solid or anything. It's built on a series of small scum-tells, rather than two or three big ones. As Shteven correctly points out in his 643, a few of the things that bother me about him aren't even scum-tells, in and of themselves. It's when I throw them in the pile with the other stuff (particularly the odd little Claus interaction between 315, 317, and 476) that I get nervous. Combine it with a player that starts throwing down a councilor/adviser play-style, and I get even more nervous. Shteven has been on the site way longer than I have and has way more posts, so I'd expect him to be more subtle than I.

And while it may be somewhat ironic after my previous sentence, I think I've waited long enough, and that it's time I go 'on the record'.

Can you go a bit more on the record with a case of more than "I don't like the way this guy keeps attacking me"?

However like the others have said he ahs said some very suspicious things in his long replies. If you want me to bring up an example of his scummish sayings then I shall later on. I'm just too lazy too at the moment.

Please get to this ASAP. While you're at it, please quote specifically where "others" have said I (as opposed to Apyadg) say suspicious things. Even Shteven, who I am currently attacking and who probably doesn't like me much, seems to be begrudingly agreeing that my attack is worth responding to in a point-by-point way.

With you having said that, it's hardly fair to place the blame for the DS bandwagon on me, now is it? We had no way of knowing he was a doc, and further, at the time he was the scummiest suspect. He had been actively lurking, he asked for a Mass Roleclaim on day 1, and was very shady.

Hrm. You know, it bothers me a little that you immediately got defensive about the DS lynch, when this part of Hjallti's post doesn't seem to be addressed to you. Care to explain why you jumped on

that

part of his post? As opposed to the two-post PBPA?

Strange you repeat a mistake of Ythill here. The flavor of how a person is killed by the mod might be, but must not be indicative of the person/alignment of the killer.

Fair enough. When did Ythill make this mistake?

By the way since I not life in the same nation as you I don't think I am supposed to even guess what a NationalFL color commentator style is.

Sorry. It means that I think you're commenting about the game rather than playing the game. Your PBPAs are a big factor in this. You just repeat what other people do, with little or none of your own commentary about what you think about it. In my opinion, "remaining close with the facts" is somewhat anti-town. If you suspect someone and get NK'ed without getting that info out there, it's worthless. I don't like PBPAs in general because it's way too easy to hide lies in them. You can trust that I'm going to go through your PBPA on kuribo with a fine-tooth comb, investigating every single line.

I don't see anyone 'questioning' NJH's vote.

You're right. This is phrased badly. There was a rather fast discussion from everyone voting Xtoxm about why they were voting him, posts 19 through 28 inclusive. It bugged me because NJH felt the need to suddenly justify what he at first explicitly stated was a random vote.

'Tried to defend himself' is a loaded way of putting it. Do you mean to say that he did a poor job of it? How so?

I said that because the post felt weird to me. The second para was the real defense. If he'd stopped there, I wouldn't have even noticed 101. But he didn't stop there. He turned his defense into an attack on Ythill and charter. That bugged me. Then he had to go back and correct the post. That bugged me more. It felt like he was panicking a bit under pressure.

I for one fail to see the uberscumminess in it.

Didn't say it was uberscummy. It's just one more marble in a little pile of marbles. See above.

This probably doesn't excuse my behavior of championing lynches and being wrong constantly, but it does show it's not proof of my being a scum role. I'm trying to be more cautious here day 2, although I'm not sure how effective that's been so far.

I get this, but you kinda sidestep the question. The question was, if you knew you had a history of championing day 1 mislynches, why did you bang the drum on the DS lynch so confidently? I would have expected more caution after being burned the first time. My first game, I also championed a day one mislynch, as I've mentioned (Nano was the target). My play has been a lot more cautious since then.

I'll catch up on posts from 675 on in a day or two. Damn, this game is dense.

[Jester]

A large ego that likes to hear himself.

Want some cheese to go with your whine?

Needless meta-ing of himself to show off. I really don't need to know this I got NK-d double in one night twice bullshit during the game.

It was a relevant statement in context, and was therefore not needless. I was pointing out that Ythill called the lightning down on himself --

all

the lightning, no matter how many sources of it there are in this game. I myself have done it before, I'll no doubt do it again, and I recognize the type. That's why I brought it up.

I don't think Ythill is better of dead than alive which Jester states early.

A blatant lie. Here is my quote about Ythill: "It might be a bit early to say, but right now, my instinct is that Ythill is a better scum-hunter in death than he was in life." Here is my quote about MafiaSSK: "Right now, MafiaSSK might be worth more to the town dead than alive."

If you have a

quote

from me where I said Ythill is better off dead than alive, present your evidence. As a matter of fact, I said the opposite: "I'm sorry that Ythill isn't in the game any more. I really liked his play style and he's clearly sharp as hell." In the meantime, townies do a better job of keeping track of what people in the game say, scum.

i don't understand why you find the reasons for kuribo's vote on Shteven credible. Oh there is one angle to see it: I believe you are kuribo's scumpartner Fos:Jester

Oh, good. This old chestnut. "Mafia partners defend each other!" What an incredible crock, and yet someone always trots it out even though it's not only patently untrue but stupid. I'd like for you to name me one completed game, right now, where mafia members defended each other and were caught and lynched because they did. Just one. I want to see this mythical beast in the flesh, just once, before I die.

kuribo has his own reasons for voting for Shteven. As I've said twice now, some of those reasons I agree with, some of those reasons, I do not agree with. But I've got my own reasons for believing Shteven is scummy.

Incognito, I would quote your entire post 683, if I could. I've been trying to get Shteven to answer this question for two posts now, and it's about to become three posts. He keeps side-stepping it.

Here we go. Third time.

What struck me about the interaction, though, was that you mostly agreed with Claus until he unexpectedly turned up both scum and dead, then suddenly you didn't think there was much value to the lists. So I'll put it to you straight. Look at Claus's list again. Do you still mostly agree with who he thought was town, and who he thought was scum?

This is a slight misunderstanding - What I said was not that the list is worthless, but that deciding that someone is scum based on what category he listed them under is a very, very bad idea. Slightly better off is reading what he actually wrote about them; better still if you look at ALL of Claus' posts about someone and use those.

Shteven, this ain't a hard question, man. Please answer the question that I asked, rather than commenting on the lead-in to the question. Here is the question I asked. Look at Claus's list again.

Do you still mostly agree with who he thought was town, and who he thought was scum, as you did in your 317?

You keep quoting my question, then keep not answering it. It looks deliberate. Answer the question in red. Thank you for answering the question about why you so confidently pushed the DS lynch.

I'm going to consider your case against kuribo over the weekend.

And I'm finally, completely, totally caught up. Yay!

[Jester]

My apologies. I'm almost certainly going to be unavailable until Friday in all of my games. This is an incredibly busy week for me at work. I will catch up and give my full opinion on Friday morning. In the meantime, though, I've not seen anything that alters my current opinion of the players in any major fashion.

[Jester]

Boo. Go town!

[Jester]

Boo. My first loss as town. I think we can lay it at Gorgon's feet, though. I hate it when people go ballistic on the forums.

Congrats, JP. And you're right, killing me was the right choice, 'cause I was getting suspicious of you. You played a good game, but you're right, town deserved to win this one. It was Gorgon's fault that we didn't. If he'd been more engaged earlier in the game, I think it would have gone differently.

Oh well, it happens.

[Jester]

Well, actually, laying it ALL at Gorgon's feet is unfair, so scratch that. We had some other seriously disengaged townies, MafiaSSK and Hjallti high among them.

Town had a good opening, and a seriously poor mid- and end-game.

[Jester]

After Shteven died my first goal was to make sure no scum hunting block developed. I could see the possibility of that with Kuribo and Jester. I killed Jester because I didn’t have a feel for Jester but felt sure Kuribo was a good player.

Great comments, thanks, JP. I'm curious about this, though. If you felt kuribo was a good player, but didn't have a good read on me, why not NK kuribo?

I've been getting NK'ed a lot on this board and have been trying to dial down the tendencies that cause it so that I can actually play a game here from start to finish. I thought I had done that in this game... until I turned up dead. It's interesting to hear you confirm that I was a little ambiguous... but that you decided to kill me anyway.