Mini 539: Game over

[Hjallti]

I am replacing Ho1den. Don't thank me, but Justin Playfair, who replaced in in my own game under condition I play here. I will reread not later than tuesday.

[Hjallti]

I just went reading day 1, a long read!

I will comment when I have time.

This meta argument is false use of statistics

Firstly, it seems unlikely for lightning to strike twice.

chances that two players are linked scum in two games are indeed very small, but the chance that two players are linked twice GIVEN THEY ARE LINKED ONCE is equal to the chance they are linked once.

[Hjallti]

especially when he knew they'd get him that night, anyway.

This implies he knew Disciple Slayer was doc, somehow.

As for your left testicle, I would also expect him to have split his scum partners, but there are 3 parts in the list, so if he went like we expected he still had choices. Moreover Claus will have realized that we would expect that and the mechanics of WIFOM denies the argument. I do think his list is important, but I wouldn't think it would be so obvious to say that the unlisted would be definite town (or rather not mafia).

[Hjallti]

Claus would have known there was no point in bucking Ythill's vig claim (thus drawing attention to himself) because the mafia could just kill him that night.

Which is untrue if there is doc around. As long as we have a doc a directed nightkill of mafia this way should have been blocked. I just noted you missed this in your consideration but probably mafia would be aware of that.

[Hjallti]

indeed after that post. but kuribo pre-assumes that somehow. Nevermind it is worth ten posts it was just a remark

[Hjallti]

day 2 overlook --- I paraphrase rather than quote to show HOW I read the posts rather than WHAT I read.

Italics are comments

474. *Incognito opens the day with reposted Claus' list and the debate of where we have to look.

I think the place on the list of the players doesn't matter: the two (I assume that as long we have no reason to think otherwise we have 1 scum group with 3 players) remaining scum could be anywhere. Every obvious deduction of where Claus would have put them could be WIFOMmed away because Claus would also know it is obvious.

*No SK, probably
476. Shteven also thinks no SK.
478. kuribo makes some considerations about the list.
479. Xtoxm tells he believes there is an SK.

In this I follow Xtoxm's hypothesis, but it is not of importance now. SK could have attacked Ythill or Claus, could have been roleblocked by both town of mafia, as long as we have no more clues than there was a Vig, we shouldn't rule out SK and it is more common in a mini to have one than not to have one. By the way 2 docs is uncommon but a doc/nurse-line up is not, so we could have another doc around

482. Incognito (following Ythill) considers the argument Claus-Justin a no scum tell for Justin.

If Justin could still be neutral (e.g. SK). Justins long debates are playstyle, as he warned on page 1, he promised that he already shortened it but still it is long.

491.

Shteven says it is odd that Ythill attacked CLaus.

Do we know that as a fact? If there is a mafia-role blocker, he would have targetted Ythill, the SK could have targetted Claus meanwhile. What is the likelyhood of this?

492. Shteven gives also a more possibilities of line-up

I think it is to early to use lineup considerations now

Shteven implies that Ythill lied about his one-shot vig,

but that is speculation, mods do not specify all details of a role at the deadscene. Vig could be one-time vig, odd nights vig, ...

496. Justin also reads Claus lists and comes up with an interrogation of Xtoxm
497. answer of Xtoxm.
498. Incognito claims pro-town mason with MafiaSSK and fosses apyadg and xtoxm (and also a bit kuribo)

why this claim?

499-500. reactions of Xtoxm
502. reaction of Shteven
504. kuribo votes Xtoxm
506. Shteven asks why Incognito claimed
508. answers the question: combined with Claus list it gives a lot of info.
510. kuribo doesn't believe the claim
512-513. back-up claim from MafiaSSK
515. Xtoxm says that he don't think there would be scumpair in this game

I assumed there is scumpair in this game left over after one of the scumteam died? I do believe the claim because the 2 scum left over wouldn't do this.

516. Incognito assures us that it is a double town-mason claim:

If we were scum and we were counterclaimed by a real pro-town Mason group,

This is a general misconception: there is no way another pro-town mason group could counterclaim. I was mason in another game with two pro-town mason groups, and even after my nightkill reveiling I was mason my partner was lynched although he claimed to be mason, due to a counterclaim.

516 (second part) questions for Xtoxm.
517. answers from Xtoxm
518. kuribo complains that Xtoxm answers the question about focussing on SK
520. Asks fot Xtomx to claim SK.

This is really unhelpful for town and distracting. kuribo is in my eyes the one that continues the discussion about SK and is distracting town here

534. Vote from Xtoxm on Apyadg
535. Justins' scum list ended with a vote on Apyadg
546.

kuribo seems to have a different concept of mason than I have, anyway in this game according to Incognito the mod told that the word mason is used in it's for this site common meaning: a couple of townies knowing eachother as townies, with the right to speak at night.

550 and more: kuribo and Xtoxm quarreling this is an eagerness-tell, nothing noteworthy.
559. Votes Shteven for assuming 2 remaining scum.
560. Shteven says we have settled to be in 3:9 set up except for Xtoxm

Count me out as well: I would go for 3:1:8 (with a rather big chance of 3:9 or 3:2:7), meaning that 1 or 2 players might be not townaligned and not scum, in other words neutrals. This means that any speculation of this sort is to early. Which neutrals? Well,

since we don't know who Ythill targetted and even have reason to assume he might not have targetted Claus, we might have an SK

but we don't know, night will tell, today this is not an issue. Apart from that a survivor-type of role is also not impossible.

I end just before my entrance in the game. I think I commented on later posts already, but I think I will reread from that point.

I think a weekend without visiting this site will help me thinking about everything now. If you have questions for me just ask them.
I do believe the mason claim, but so think it would be nice if a cop could check it tonight (if he has no better plans).

[Hjallti]

First of all, my fast remarks about possible line-ups had the intention to remind some people that it is way to early to envision only a 3 against 9 setup, I think I have been only in one game with such a setup on this site. Clearly my summing up possibilities had the opposite effect because everyone complains about me doing it, while no one complains when people say the want only to think as if we have a 3:9. So the underneath remark is self referential.

I'm starting to think that the speculation may be intentionally fed on the part of the scum, and that perhaps town players are unwittingly keeping it going.

I always find it strange that dead people are allowed to post (even once), and I don't want to use it in my considerations, more over since english is not my mothertongue, I don't see why

Woot!

would imply that the dead of scum Claus was caused by Ythill. It makes me more convinced that, when I am mod I should delete those dead posts as soon as possible.

However, I do agree that from what we saw about Ythill it was more likely he attacked someone else that who he said he would attack, but that I only conceived while thinking this game over in the weekend, and not on my read friday.

Hjallti, your statement above seems weird to me especially coupled with your closing statement where you mention that you believe my pro-town Mason claim. If there is a mafia role-blocker and the role-blocker knew that Ythill was targeting town (me), why would the role-blocker block Ythill's action? The role-blocker would more likely allow the kill to go through under the assumption that the one-shot night-kill vig is targeting town while thinking he's targeting scum.

You are right, didn't consider that, I was to much thinking about vig is protown so mafia wants to stop him.

I also don't like how you're trying to lead the cop. Why should the cop investigate me to determine if I'm telling the truth about my claim?

??? No that is a misrepresentation: I claerly included that he only should do it if he has no better plans. This is clearly not

directing

the cop.

(if he has no better plans).

I do understand your second comment, and agree it would be wasted if we at twilight still have reason mafia will attack either you or MafiaSSK, and if the game changes so much they would attack someone else then probably the cop might also have something else to do.

Still I find it strange to get FoSsed for suggesting a cop investigation if he has nothing better to do.

I am planning a PBPA of at least Apyadg/Jester maybe other players as well tomorrow.

[Hjallti]

Then who do you propose killed Claus? Because I find it next to impossible that the scum would kill one of their own.

Strange question: First of all you keep on speculating the line up which you said you shouldn't,

I'm starting to think that the speculation may be intentionally fed on the part of the scum, and that perhaps town players are unwittingly keeping it going.

and second you fail to grasp my point that we are not sure about a 3:9 setup which you still seem to focus on as the only possibility. This is tunneling and might hurt town!

If Ythill didn't kill Claus we probably have an SK around. That is all I wanted to point out.

PBPA of Apyadg (Jester is his new name) : number of posts from singled out file.

(I paraphrase rather than quote to show how I read it rather than what I read.

italics are my personal comments

)
0. votes MafiaSSK for providing a joke reason to his random vote
1. Asks for the reason of the vote
2. newb question about setup
3. Calls MafiaSSK scummy for his joke (= a lie)
4. unvotes but still FoSses him
5-7. Defended against accusitions

The point against Apyadg at this point is that he started the bandwagon on no good reason, although he seemed to believe it was a good reason, and then unvoted under criticism while still thinking MafiaSSK was scum. This could al be an eager newbie. Thusfar I only see a newbie-tell

8. Apyadg is called out for unvoting (from L-4 to L-5) the scummiest player in his opinion without redirecting his vote somewhere.

He didn't yet grasp the fact that votes can be used as pressure tools as well.

9-11. He is questioned about his lack on scumhunting (on mafiaSSK)
12-13. Comes back from absence with an clear statement about his vote/unvote which really believe as a newb-tell and takes some advise just before disappearing.

I am not experienced enough to distinguish between scum-newb and town-newb, but I don't think we can learn anything more from his play.

[Hjallti]

I just had bad luck, I was doing a PBPA of kuribo and after almost an hour electricty went done and I lost my text.

Try to regather what I had:

mod: can we have a vote count?

As some find it neccessary that I comment on day 1 I will but I don't have anything original to say:

Ythill shouldn't have claimed. Even if he did shoot as a one-shot-vig he was still an asset to town as a good scumhunting townie. It was good that he apparently didn't shoot who he said he would, and he shot right (if he shot Claus).

Disciple Slayer plays so bad in every game I saw from him. He schould have been replaced rather than lynched. It is a pity that we lost a powerrole due to his erratic play. I think the turn out that we start day 2 with 1 scum and 2 townpowers down, means that provided the setup was balanced we are still balanced, with a slight advantage for scum, but that is merely speculation.

PBPA of kuribo: numbers of the singled out list (I paraphrase rather than quote, and I use

italics for comments

)
0. Enters on page 8
1. I won't summarize that post (again) but remark what I think stands a bit out.
(about page 1) He says he hates meta's and announced pressure votes, which in fact relief the pressure by announcing.
(about page 2-4) Ythill is clearly considered scum by kuribo and gets a lot of attention
(about page 5-8) Points out that SSK and Ythill are not consequent in lurker=scumtell remarks

He concludes by calling Yhtill (

NK-ed Vig

), charter (

replaced by Gorgon

) and DS (

lynched doc

) as his top-3 scum, and adds

Ho1den

MafiaSSK.
2. EBWOP Not Ho1den but MafiaSSK
3. reacts on Xtoxm when the latter comments his newbie card
4-5. about vig Ythill (see 7-10.)
6. Is the first to vote DiscipleSlayer, this wagon will get fast 3 extra votes (1 removed) but stall at 3 for a while and then later start again to lynch our Doc.
7-10. He again doubts Ythill.

Here I am getting worried: On one hand he teaches the newbies that you never should claim unless as "a last resort". He points out that it is not done on this site. But... I also think an un counterclaimed, un disproven claim is also not attacked in the early stages, and kuribo keeps on doing it. So while teaching about what you shouldn't do on one side, he actually does do something else that on this site is normally not done. It is hypocryte to say the least.

In post 10 he even clearly states that he would lynch the claimed vig untested.
11-17. Gets in quarrels with both Ythill and Xtoxm which leads to
18. Where he believes Ythill could be town and votes for Xtoxm.
19-24. continuing the quarrels
25-35. Still more quarrels, attacks Xtoxm for briefly stating to happy with a DS-lynch in a way that might be interpreted as I am happy with any lynch.
36-41. Uninteresting
42. Confirms his vote on disciple slayer, while I thought it was on Xtoxm...

---------

I will do day2 if I have more time.

@kuribo, could you clearify why you treath the two statements allow so different (zie comments regarding 7-10)?
"Never claim unless as last resort"
"A not counterclaimed power role should not be lynched"

[Hjallti]

kuribo: Where did I BLAME you for starting the DS wagon. I just mentionned it in a post by post analysis.

Here is part of your post 10: (cost me 3 page loads to get this, I don't understand why you didn't look it up yourself: underneath the page you can coose a player whose posts you want to single out on one page)

My gut tells me he's lying, but it also says Disciple Slayer is scummier and we can sort Ythill on Day 2.

I rephrase my question:
Why on earth are you critizing newbies for not following one convention on this site (not claiming unless as 'last resort') while blatantly denying another convention (not attacking a claimed not counterclaimed power role)?

[Hjallti]

EBWOP: the fact that I said that DS should have been replaced rather than lynched was no way intented to call the voters of the lynch scummy.

[Hjallti]

Yes, we do know that Ythill verbally attacked Claus, in his post 471, as I mentioned previously. I agree that if there's a mafia RB, that RB would have blocked Ythill. I don't believe that a SK (if any) attacked Claus because of the death method, "shot in the back of the head," I believe. This is a kill method consistent with a vig or the mafia. SK kills are usually quite a bit more dramatic.

Strange you repeat a mistake of Ythill here. The flavor of how a person is killed by the mod might be, but must not be indicative of the person/alignment of the killer.

By the way since I not life in the same nation as you I don't think I am supposed to even guess what a NationalFL color commentator style is. But if you just mean that I remained close with the facts, than I take it as compliment even if it is probably intended the other way around. I did recap day 1 as far as I think it is useful because you were whining before. Justin indeed commented on this but I understood he pointed out that I didn't say much because I don't have much to say about it.

What is your point that I shouldn't look in to kuribo's posts to find suspicions? Do you mean here that I should look away from kuribo? That sounds scummy to me...
I think I know who the next player is who I want to look in.

[Hjallti]

continuation of PBPA of kuribo (to make clear that I don't want to look away from him before looking more closely to Jester)

here day2 starts:
43. studies also Claus' list in which he makes his lightning twice mistake

which is not a scumtell ofcourse, but some argument to be neglected totally

44. adds that he was wrong about Ythill, which was a pretty superfluious remark.
45. agrees he was wrong about Claus and incognito having been scum together
46. Asks Xtoxm if he is a Sk only for raising an alternative for the scenario 'claus was killed Ythill'

everyone thinks they may call a fact here. I just think this is a childish reaction but not a scumtell, based on a general misconception also used before by Ythill, afterwards by Jester, in Illustrated Mafia it was also raised wrongly about the NK of the Vig.

47. misses Xtoxm's proposition to crossreplace
48. agrees he was mistaken
49. votes Xtoxm but states that he (again) won't take the claim for granted
50. clearifies suspicions about the claim
51. Points out that we can't be sure anyone is town because they would have been arguing with ChronX/Claus
52. just a remark
53. Whines about Xtoxm speculating about the setup.

I find it more disturbing that some players take unknown things for granted, than that people keep their minds open for other possibilities.

54. repeats his childish question about Xtoxm being SK.
55-59. annoying remarks between Xtoxm and him.
60. answers to Justin that he doesn't believe the claim of Incognito
61-63. Xtoxm gets annoyed that kuribo answers a question in other fashion than expected.
64-65. votes Shteven for assuming that there 3 scum and putting this as a fact.

The chance we have 3-scum team is bigger than the fact we have no SK. If you are going to vote over that you better self vote for denying the fact there could be an SK.

66. "Xtoxm, you shouldn't take anything about the setup for granted." I think this quote is really strange.

ends this post with a typical logical flaw of the positivists. He finds it suspicious that Shteven doesn't want to focus on the denomination in the list (which was pointed out by other players as well), but from scum-Shteven that would be very convenient so Shteven is scum. This topples down to: Shteven is scummy if he is scum, which is a nulltell

67. Answers Shtevens strange remark about kuribo using the singular partner, rather than partners, while there is for a mafia only one partner left anyway.
68. He assumed that Claus knew they would get Ythill anyway. I don't think Claus could have known that, only hoped that, which was correct due to the doc lynch and the apparent absence of a nurse.
69. reacts to my reaction to the previous, but as far as I am concerned not really convincing. changes would in could along the way though
70. Overdefense when I react I just noted the little flaw in kuribo's remark he starts to reexplain from another position.
71. Reacts to Shtevens simplicication of the arguments made about the list of Claus.
72. Repeats his selfreferential point about being distractive to pin down a possible line -up.

It is pretty tiresome, and indeed distracting, if the whole point you try to make is that the other should stop tunneling on only one possible setup by showing alternatives, and that person instead of admitting it keeps on whining that speculating about setup is counterproductive.

74. Still keeps on tunneling the setup

kuribo as long as we don't know more than we do stop saying that it what is most possible is true is a fact, it is not and it should not be treated like that!

77. kuribo points out that the evidence doesn't support the existence of an SK.

But the whole point I am trying to make is that the evidence doesn't support the NONexistence of an SK whatsoever. I am consider both possibilities you don't want to consider the second, you believe something without evidence I don't. Strange about claims you work the other way around totally.

78. Says that Ythill took risk and we were lucky it went our way.
79. Jester proposes to lynch MafiaSSK anyway to test the claim. kuribo points out that this is a terrible plan.

I agree

80. Makes a contentless joke to Shteven about being scum again.

Clearly kuribo is tunneling on Shteven by now, it might not be a clear scumtell, but it clearly against the interest of town when someone starts to tunnel like this.

82. Is pissed that Shteven votes him for this tunneling
83. Again thinks that someone needs to proof an SK to show that it is not proven that there is no SK.
84-85. Starts to get emotional over this vote. This is defenitely not protown behaviour.
87. Calls me out for blaming him for the DS wagon while I only mentionned it. Again to defensive.

FOS: kuribo

In the last part where he gets some pressure he gets very emotional. Although he has proven not to understand logic very deeply this is still the wrong way of reacting to pressure.

[Hjallti]

"Sort him on Day 2" implies that come day 2, the truth or falsehood of his alignment would be known and we could sort it out.

Given the number of different setup for 12 player games I have seen and played on this site this would have been unlikely, but okay I understand your point here, and consider to be corrected. That is the main reason I paraphrase rather than quote.

Two docs is not likely but a doc/nurse combination is used more than once on this site. Probably we don't have a nurse because we Ythill died.

[Hjallti]

1. Shteven (Northjayhawk)

In my opinion he is very solid under the attacks and I really think he is town.

2. Incognito

claimed mason. clear.

3. MafiaSSK

claimed mason. clear. A pity his erratic play forced the claim of Incognito.

4. Gorgon (charter)

Still under the radar


5. Xtoxm

Claus calls him solid and consistent, while his playstyle is nothink like that.
I hate the childish fights he and kuribo seem to love, although I think that it kuribo who pooks each time and Xtoxm who reacts. I think Xtoxm reactions are playstyle, and he is not in my scum top2

6. kuribo (Natude)

votes Xtoxm (504) and one of the reasons is a disagreement about whether one should discuss power roles. Reaching. Keeps also misrepresenting each time Xtoxm answers a question why he speculates setup kuribo hops into to say that speculation is waste of time. If you don't want this discussion to go on, you should address whoever asks the questions and not who is answering them. (for instance posts 517,519 and 521 are direct answers to posts 516, 518 and 520. It is those who posted the questions who are distracting if you call it distracting) I also still don't understand why trying to figure out setups would be a scumtell.
I hate the childish fights he keeps on making with Xtoxm.
Votes Shteven for no good reason.

I find also scummy that he tries a dozen times to force a setup on us and keeps by it and any possible remark to show that there are other possibilities he calls distracting. He kept on reopening that discussion apparently only to say the other players are distractive.

7. Justin Playfair

Together with Jester the only not confirmed player in the naughty list. Has an amazing playstyle, and therefor is considered town whenever I see him. Personally I think he is just very hard to read.

8. Jester (Apyadg)

together with Justin the only not confirmed player in the naughty list.
Jester play style compared to NFL-commentary: He is commenting a life broadcast of expedition that last 40 days and he is commenting every step in large detail. A large ego that likes to hear himself.
Needless meta-ing of himself to show off. I really don't need to know this I got NK-d double in one night twice bullshit during the game. I don't think Ythill is better of dead than alive which Jester states early.
i don't understand why you find the reasons for kuribo's vote on Shteven credible. Oh there is one angle to see it: I believe you are kuribo's scumpartner

Fos:Jester

vote:kuribo

[Hjallti]

kuribo,
so you choose again not to defend but to attack. That might be a good idea in the game which is in your avatar, but here is sure looks scummy.

Why did you try to distracked town all the time by asking Xtoxm over and over again for evidence for an SK while he never said there was certainly one (while you yourself think there is certainly no SK without a single trace of even an attempt to proof it)?
Given your continued bringing up this discussion, do you really believe it is scummy to bring up this discussion over and over again? I mean, come on, if you are consequent you should be selfvoting, isn't it?

[Hjallti]

No kuribo, it is you who keeps on acting stupid. You actually want us to accept as a fact that there is no serial killer. I agree with you that it is pointless to discuss it at this point further, but why on earth do you keep bring it up, when people say correctly there could be a serial killer, you say they are wrong because they can't proof there is one. Now there your logic is flawed. About the Serial killer there is at this moment only one correct analysis: "we don't know if there is a serial killer". This conclusion is reached by Xtoxm (among others like Jester): if someone only mentionned something equivalent with that you start to say they should proof it. What is there to proof? The statement that is adhired by you "there is no serial killer" is something provable. But you even don't want to understand this argument. Now that is distrackting and antitown. A good reaction would have been something like 'wait, okay, I understand what you mean, ...'

As for why I want to put the spotlight at you: that is quite easy: I believe you are scum. And to be honest.... there was already a spotlight on you. I reread the entire game from your angle and from that of Shteven and at this point I very well know why my vote is where it is.

[Hjallti]

Strange you repeat a mistake of Ythill here. The flavor of how a person is killed by the mod might be, but must not be indicative of the person/alignment of the killer.

Fair enough. When did Ythill make this mistake?

Justin suggested (and I think some others echoed) the fact that I could be a SK even if a second body hits the ground tomorrow, but wouldn't that body be chainsawed? As a vig, my target will be shot. Problem cleared up, methinks

It is really up to the mod who he let his characters kill the players. Mostly the killing will be consistent within the game, but that is not what you both indicated.

Sorry. It means that I think you're commenting about the game rather than playing the game. Your PBPAs are a big factor in this. You just repeat what other people do, with little or none of your own commentary about what you think about it. In my opinion, "remaining close with the facts" is somewhat anti-town. If you suspect someone and get NK'ed without getting that info out there, it's worthless. I don't like PBPAs in general because it's way too easy to hide lies in them. You can trust that I'm going to go through your PBPA on kuribo with a fine-tooth comb, investigating every single line.

The reason I do it like this is that I first want to get the facts and than think about it to form my opinions. I could as well not post the PBPA then you would have to be bothered, but a minor reason to do it has to do with the fact that I rather paraphrase than quote to see if I have the facts straight. As we are not able to look into eachothers mind it is merely impossible that I recieve exactly the message you intented to bring. Which brings me to a nice example:

I brought up that you claimed it was better that Ythill was dead than alive, which is blatant misrepresentation due to misinterpretation, but not a lie. (I see a lie as an intented misrepresentation, which it was not). I now understand what you meant but your accusition that I was lying was a misinterpretation from your part, or to use your wording a blatant lie.

I am happy you will go through my PBPA's since they are meant to be read. And they were my upstep to (and now I quote the very first line of this page (by Incognito)) "to gradually ease my way

back

into this game. "

I find it funny that in post 689 kuribo tries to reopen the SK discussion again. I don't wish to explain him again that he is the one that has already seems to believe there is a clear answer to the question 'Is there an Sk?' and that he again is explaining why he is false himself. The fact the question was raised first was because it was not clear to everyone (for instance not to me) that we could accept Ythill killed Claus for a fact. The returning of the question troughout this day was mainly in my view the work of kuribo and I hope he will leave it now and not again distrack us with it.

where mafia members defended each other and were caught and lynched because they did. Just one. I want to see this mythical beast in the flesh, just once, before I die.

Probably it might exist. In this game town somehow forgets to lynch me day2 otherwise it was an example. ((I want to point out that I was told I was un-nightkillable which I was not, and therefor I brought Zodiac to try nk me, because I already knew she could NK. (I thought she was SK but she was in fact a Vig.) )) On the other hand it was a newbie mistake.

I understand your defense to this indeed stupid accusition, but ofcourse it is no towntell whatsoever, because it purely WIFOM if we discuss it further.

[Hjallti]

Posted: Fri Mar 07, 2008 1:58 am Post subject: 731 Reply with quote
Considering today is Thursday, we have about 25 hours to go.

Xtoxm, you are right it was posted on friday for us, but still it was a mistake.


1. Shteven Northjayhawk
Seems town to me, but we will know soon I guess.

2. Incognito
mason

3. MafiaSSK
mason

4. Gorgon charter
More and more he is leaning to the scummy side of the road, but I want to see more of him.

5. Xtoxm
middle of the road, I can't read his playstyle to good. Claus calling him consistent and solid is inaccurate. If Claus was thinking of dying soon it was probably buddying up with a townie but at that point Claus won't have expected to be killed that fast.

6. kuribo Natude
still attacks anyone who dares to disagree on his so envisioned nonSKtheory. Finds lineup considerations not a part of game but keeps on commenting on them (hypocrite??) and even votes shteven for assuming 3 scum.

7. Justin Playfair
Middle of the road: I can't read him that good.

8. Jester Apyadg
Apyadg was a newbie, Jester gives views on everyone in lenghty post, I consider tha playstyle, others consider that a towntell.

[Hjallti]

I am left between Gorgon and Justin Playfair to be scum:

Ingonito and MafiaSSK are even more confirmed now, because even if there are two anti-town roles left, they wouldn't be partners (4 scum team seems not really possible)

kuribo and Shteven being scum together would mean they bussed eachother enormously and I don't believe that the case.

I really still believe Xtoxm is town

Which leaves me with Justin Playfair, who was getting under the radar lately and Gorgon.

vote: Gorgon

[Hjallti]

unvote

I will think about this claim, but it doesn't seem to be very genuine considering the additional comments of Gorgon.

[Hjallti]

I was wondering if a nolynch-vote would not postpone LYLO one day more and leave us with a test more. Then again Gorgon could be nightkilled, and we gain nothing. Probably we should consider this at some point but today might be to early.

If we have a cop, Gorgon is the cop (now kuribo also not countered), and we have three assured townies.
kuribo has attacked Shteven to hard and to early to be bussing
Xtoxm plays very erratic but I don't think he is scum in this game.

Justin was second on my list after reading the night scenes (behind Gorgon), and now is on one. His playstyle is pretty much townish, but I do think it is really his playstyle.

[Hjallti]

My nolynch hunch was just to remind everyone on a later day: Somehow for endgame it is sometimes more interesting to get a player more around:

If night starts at 1:3, then the scum can choose to kill or not kill. If all three townies are not confirmed a nokill is just better than a kill for mafia because it is LYLO both ways and chance on a mislynch is 3/4 rather than 2/3. My analysis below makes me believe this would be a wrong move of scum.

There for if we are at 1:4 we should consider no lynch as a option although I am not clear about that. I was just throwing it out to get reactions because I seem to get in some cycle of paradoxes about it I can't get out. Anyways as I said today is not the time to consider this.

In my eyes we have 3 possible scum (in fact two because I have more info on one of them, but for the sake of the argument I will not use it, and please don't call this a scumtell because it is not): Xtoxm, Justin and Hjallti.

We lynch one today (let say Xtoxm, for the sake of the argument I follow here the wagon)

either the game ends or continues

Tonight Gorgon investigates Justin

Possibilities for the night
* Gorgon is dead/cop we have 1:4 with 2 confirmed townies (possible scum: kuribo, Justin and me)
* Gorgon survives and says Justin is innocent: 1:4 with 2 confirmed townies (possible scum Gorgon, kuribo and me)
* Gorgon survives and says Justin is mafia: lynch Justin game over or Justin is town:
next day starts with 1:2 and Gorgon is lynched

1:4 with two confirmed townies going into the next day just is not enough since a mislynch would lead us to 1:2 with one confirmed townie: if he votes wrond we loose.

The conclusion is that we still need to scumhunt as hard as we can: we can't just lynch Xtoxm thinking he might be town.

[Hjallti]

Why me and not Justin?

[Hjallti]

Euh, I just used Justin and not Hjallti as an example (I added 'let's take Xtoxm for the sake of the example first and later I didn't with Justin but that was not the point). It seemed pretty awkward to do so. By the way I believe kuribo is town, but he is not confirmed as well, so from my point of view investigating Justin or kuribo is what I care about, of course from neutral perspective you could choose.

Incognito what do you propose tomorrow if Xtoxm turns out to be town, and Gorgon a dead cop?

Gorgon, I still don't see why you decided to investigate Jester and not kuribo, Xtoxm or me, while Jester was not suspected by anyone and each of us was.

[Hjallti]

EBWOP: you could choose me as well.

[Hjallti]

sorry for the triple post but kuribo croos posted:

I also believe we should keep on scumhunting, that was the conclusion of my analysis:

The conclusion is that we still need to scumhunt as hard as we can: we can't just lynch Xtoxm thinking he might be town.

[Hjallti]

Who is the 'you' in the previous post?

I started the day with as order for last scum:
Gorgon
Justin Playfair
Xtoxm
kuribo
mafiaSSK
Incognito

Gorgon claimed without counterclaim so he goes up (temporary). If he survives next night it would be strange.
The two reasons I don't vote Xtoxm at this point is that we still need time to find the scum, we don't have a full proof plan, and that if we are going to lynch the most likely scum except Gorgon, it is not Xtoxm at this moment.

Justin,

There are two things that keep the above from being foolproof, of course. One would be the possibility that we have a godfather, which would make a GorgonCop impotent. The other would be that we have four scum, which is theoretically possible. The Wiki mentions three or four scum in a mini. And our situation, with a doctor, a vig, two masons and a cop, might just warrant four scum.

As I see it your analysis is far from the same as mine. I never used one of the above assumptions and in my analysis the plan isn't fullproof (foolproof? is my english of?) as well. Mostly you reasoning is pretty clear (albeit over-elaborated) but here you seem to be off. Did I miss something? Or did you?

[Hjallti]

EBWOP: the you in Xtoxm post number: 832?


Incognito: Do you suggest lynching Gorgon tomorrow if he lives another day?

What if Gorgon is a cop, and scum keeps him alive?
As an example a scenario where I have to choose last day. Which one should I choose? Quite frankly I don't know...
(with permutation of names you could get such a scenario independent of town play, as I see it now)


Day 3

kuribo
MafiaSSK
Incognito
Justin Playfair

Xtoxm

Gorgon
Hjallti

Night-kill: Incognito
Investigation Hjallti: innocent

Day 4

kuribo

MafiaSSK
Gorgon
Justin Playfair
Hjallti

Lynch: kuribo
Night-kill: MafiaSSK
Investigation: Justin Playfair guilty

Day 5

Gorgon
Hjallti
Justin Playfair

[Hjallti]

I think Justin is a great mafia-player, with an enormous town playstyle. therefor I read some of his post more as playstyle rather than town-tell. He seemed to be a bit to much under the radar lately aswell (but that could be only an impression)
He is kind of middle of the road, and the scum side of the road is getting very small.

kuribo-scum would have been Shteven to much in my opinion. I don't think kuribo would play it like that (which ofcourse is an argument that gets blown away by WIFOM).

Xtoxm playstyle is somehow opposite of Justins': much more scummy and erratic, but canceling that out I would think he is town here.

Incognito, why was my post 823 exactly what you wanted?

[Hjallti]

So as Xtoxm says we might even lynch Gorgon tomorrow if he comes back with an innocent?

[Hjallti]

you said it about post 823 not about 837!

[Hjallti]

he conveniently has us assume the scum will forget to NK our claimed cop and brings himself to the endgame.

Not liking it one bit.

Unvote, Vote: Hjallti

First of all I never said scum would forget to NK Gorgon. I just said that whoever thinks we have already won is wrong because there is one line out for a scenario that could be caused in two ways and doesn't give us an angle on who will be killed. I never stated that scenario as the only possible or even the most likely. If stating that this scenario is the most likely is a scumtell, then Incognito is scum. I can only congratulate you with that conclusion.

I do think your town, so your blatant misrepresentationS of what I said are propably misinterpretations rather than convenient lies.
and I do think you need reading lessons: I just writed down a couple of scenarios with names available and pointed out that the names could change. I clearly stated that Justin Xtoxm and myself are interchangeable in these scenarios but just started of with a Xtoxm lynch because he was leading the vote count. It is at least short sighted to think that is a scumtell.

Look kuribo I don't like you playstyle a bit. I thought you were wrong about Shteven, and thought you were scum, I was wrong and I have admitted that you are wrong. At this point I do believe you are town, but keep in mind we are not sure.

I understand you don't like my playstyle, I can live with that. We were on differnet points concerning Shteven and I was wrong. But please explain to me what you think is a scumtell, because with your vote at this point has been totally unsubstantiated.

Gorgon, I don't see how you say I cast suspicion on Justin

regarding the Jester-kill

. I clearly stated that I have a MotR reading of Justin. In fact with only one scum left I don't think Justin is scum. I also don't see any puzzle pieces falling together, and you probably also not, because the assumption you say they make them fall together is wrong.

Actually I don't care if I am lynched to day, if the alternative is lynching Xtoxm, because I do believe the result stays the same, we go to night with 5:1 and Gorgon is the center of the actions with 3 possible outcomes: Gorgon is dead, Gorgon is alive with a innocent, Gorgon is alive with a guilty. Unfortunately the first and the second doesn't give us enough information to win the game. Only the third would finish the game, either in one or two days regarding Gorgons alignment (note that we also still might have something else than a 9:3 start configuration, but the meta from Incognito on Nanosaurus might be enough here to forget those). Therefor it is stupid at this point to be willing to lynch a player that might be scum with the excuse that a mislynch still is no problem.

So Gorgon if you are cop and you mislynch today (as you seem to be easily willing to do), you have to investigate right or you might be losing the game for town.

If I get lynched today, I would suggest you investigate Justin, rather than Xtoxm.

I also want to add that scum doesn't loose any chances by leaving Gorgon alive tomorrow, he is not certainly scum.

[Hjallti]

Incognito, you have any reason to say I would make sense in being scum (except for not having any reason why I would be town, which is the case for you, MafiaSSK and kuribo, at least)?

[Hjallti]

I sure think this is interesting and good. If I had time at hands (like I had 10 years back) I would be probably doing the same thing. But it is a big task you set yourself.

[Hjallti]

mod: Can you prod Justin?

I think the scenario below we should careful consider now (as an option not as what certainly will happen):
If we mislynch today, Incognito is killed to night, and Gorgon comes back with an innocent

I already thought through what happens if we leave Gorgon alive (a 2:1 with one confirmed townie)

we lynch him, and he turns out to be a real cop. the night starts with 3:1 and two confirmed townies as well, and thus we also have the situation of 2:1 with one confirmed townie. The main difference is that in that case the two others don't involve Gorgon.

Because if they allow you to live and you present your investigation result tomorrow and you have an innocent, then obviously the other person who you didn't investigate is the other scum (why am I so thick sometimes?). That person gets lynched and the game should be over.

Apart from Gorgon we still have 4 scum candidates, have we? Or are you willing to leave kuribo out of the picture?

I will be away from next wednesday onwards (first totally, later limited acces).

[Hjallti]

EPWOP:

mod: Justin doesn't need prodding

, he played wednesday, it was only a lot of pages back... sorry

[Hjallti]

I am also waiting for Justin and MafiaSSK. Tomorrow I will be voting in any case and probably for Justin unless by then I am convinced I should vote someone else. We just need to proceed, but having input from everyone would be nice however.

[Hjallti]

This probably will be my last post before and period of no (3days) and limited acces (7days).

I want to summarize the situation from my viewpoint.

I believe that we had a 3:9 setup, which means a 1:6 at the moment. It might include a neutral, but not a SK, but we are not sure of everything.

Incognito

and

mafiaSSK

claimed confirmed mason together, and can be believed beyond doubt.

Gorgon

claimed cop, and I don't believe the claim, but as it is not counterclaimed it could be truthful. Therefor we shouldn't lynch him today.

From the other 4 I only know I am town, but I have no way to proof it.

The other 3 could contain the left over scum:
I would be totally surprized if it is

kuribo

I don't think

Xtoxm

is scum but this is rather gut.

Justin Playfair

I can't read, but he would be the last scum, if Gorgon isn't.

I think to proceed we should lynch today one of the four not claimed players, tonight Gorgon should investigate another of those 4. (Justin Playfair, if alive or Xtoxm if Justin is lynched, would be my choice)
The rest is for tomorrow.

Because I will be leaving and I want not to hold the game up I end this post with a

vote: Justin Playfair

[Hjallti]

Grrrr. Go town!

[Hjallti]

WXas I disengage? That is a stupid omgus reaction because I was not believing you. you may say I was mistaken, but not disengaged, Jester.

[Hjallti]

The reason I (seemingly together with Incognito) was promoting the no-Gorgon-kill as worst case scenatio was because I did believe it was not the worst case scenario.

Somewhere I forgot about the godfather scenario, partly due to the fact Nano didn't use Goon, but we should have realised that his first time modding he would not have felt the urge to do this.

If there was no godfather, Justin should have realized that he would be investigated and thus killed Gorgon. If Xtoxm or kuribo was the third scum, they then might have Gorgon kept alive. If Gorgon investigate someone else that Justin (which he should have, but this I only realized this when he was already lynched) he would have known the setup: Justin was town, because Gorgon lived, and the investigation would distinct between Xtoxm and kuribo. Unfortunately this was under the no godfather assumption.

From in the beginning when I joined I somehow had the feeling Justin might have invited me to join this game because he knew I would easily be taken for scummy. For instance, I still don't understand why people find discussions about the setup scummy but Justin kept on pointing out that considering a nolynch short before endgame was scummy, just like kuribo kept on considering SK as possibility was scummy. I still think that tunneling on one option (like declaring there is no SK what kuribo did is worse for town, than disregarding that option), and to come back to the final result: we partly lost the game by disregarding the godfather possibility, while some did find a additional cop to be overbalanced for town.

What if Ythill had not claimed that early? ....

[Hjallti]

That he was hard to read was also my reason to vote him off. I was really surprized to read I was lynched after been away for 3 days, and having no votes when I actually left.

Justin played brilliantly that week...

[Hjallti]

Xtoxm, you are not the only one that has to work on that part of the game (not looking scummy)...

[Hjallti]

If you have a vulnerability I think it's musing out loud in thread about various play possibilities.

I guess I will be more careful with that in the future. I don't take notes on paper. All I want to remember and know I might forget I just post in-game. The no lynch idea was such an example. I did see games where town would have had a better chance in winning with a nolynch than with a lynch close to endgame. I was just in a hurry when I brought it up, and shouldn't have.

I am also surprized I saw the tendency here that 3:9 is normal, as I have played apparently only other games (3:1:8). Shteven claiming 3 scum was not something I would jump onto as I did expect it that way. I mean I could have put in the same way.

My other problem, english being my

third

language is also something to work on, and ofcourse useful outside this game as well.

[Hjallti]

Justin, this is somehow pervers: you actually wanted the 'better' player in the endgame to be sure he would miss, as the player you doubted to be equally good might have done the right thing....