Mini 559 - Cult Mafia again - Game over

[Xtoxm]

As it stands i'm vigging you.

Assume me and Oman are telling the truth.

Assume the 1/3 chance that there are 2 town power-roles.

We know the CL was sucesful N1. He had one scum to avoid last night.

Hardly infintisimly small. I don't like these generalisation and assumptions you seem to be making at all.

I will

vote BM

again.

[Battle Mage]

As it stands i'm vigging you.

Assume

me and Oman are telling the truth.

Assume

the 1/3 chance that there are 2 town power-roles.

We know the CL was sucesful N1. He had one scum to avoid last night.

Hardly infintisimly small. I don't like these generalisation and assumptions you seem to be making at all.

I will

vote BM

again.

rofl. I'm the one making assumptions!?

There COULD be as many as 4 protown power roles, but for the sake of argument, we'll say there are 3. Now ofc, the Cult doesnt KNOW you and Oman are telling the truth, especially due to the nature of the game. With 3 power roles left in the game, plus 1 goon, the odds of a successful recruit were below 50%, and thats not taking into account the fact that a potential Doc-protection which blocks the Cult recruit anyway.

Oh and ftr, i'm pretty sure i know who the CR is. But i'm not revealing it until we've nailed the final goon.

I'm not quite sure why you unvoted in the first place Xtoxm. Its been apparent for a long time that you dont intend to do anything pro-active to help the town.

BM

[Xtoxm]

I was stressing that one scenario to say why your "Infentisamly small" was complete rubbish.

[Xtoxm]

Oh and ftr, i'm pretty sure i know who the CR is. But i'm not revealing it until we've nailed the final goon.

And i'm pretty sure it's you.

And if you aren't lynched today, you are dying tonight. So you may as well contribute as best you can if you're town.

You can stop going on about me being anti-town cos i'm 100% proven town.

[Pink Puppy]

I will probably vote Imat pretty soon. A few things I want to think about before I do, so I don't want to rush the end of day.

[Xtoxm]

Why do you think he is a good lynch?

[Pink Puppy]

Mostly because he is the one I am most sure is scum.

I would LIKE to get the CR today, but I would rather go for the one I am most sure is scum, even if that person is likely mafia.

And the cult can't win unless they find townies, and there may not even be that many left. I have to think about the numbers if it's even possible for them considering how many power roles we have. That is what I want to think about before actually lynching Imat.

[Xtoxm]

We can afford 2 non-lynches of the mafiate before he is a threat. We could well be in lylo with the cult. Lynching the mafia is only good for the cult.

As Imat is about to be lynched, i'd better fully claim.

I'm not a vig.

I'm a 2-shot vig and i've used both my shots. So I can't shoot the cult tonight. If we lynch the mafia buddy today we have almost certainly lost...

[Oman]

2-shot vig?

Wow...you really fucked up with that claim. Nice attempt though.

[Xtoxm]

2-shot vig?

Wow...you really fucked up with that claim. Nice attempt though.

What?

[Norinel]

Norinel: You say that BM tries to get a quick lynch since there is "a lot of stuff anyway" against Reyo. What exactly is the stuff you refer do?

For actual evidence, about what PP said. Also, since Reyo was a top suspect for several people anyway, he'd be an appealing target for an easy lynch.

Oh and ftr, i'm pretty sure i know who the CR is. But i'm not revealing it until we've nailed the final goon.

Withholding that kind of information as town makes no sense at all; knocking out the CR all but disables one of the anti-town factions, and would give us a lot of time to identify the mafia and any lingering recruits. Is this just another bluff?

And I was about to comment on this bit from last page, but the claimchange kind of makes it redundant:

BM, if the cult sucessfully recruited last night, which I think likely, then lynching the mafia means the cult win tonight if the sucessfully recruit again.

[Pink Puppy]

I think Norinel is the CR. Some of my reasons I would like to keep secret, as they have to do with who I think/know has PRs. I will give them later if everyone agrees that my other reasons (to follow) are convincing enough to assume I am on the right track here. If I am not, I would not want to comment further.

Looking back at Norinel's posts I think he perpetuated the problems with OMG, and he also hammered at the end of day in a suspicious way (I have already commented about how I think his hammer was weird).

My vote for dahen came with a specific condition that hasn't been met yet; other than that, GW'd be at the top of my list. I said it a while back, but the little things he says keep rubbing me the wrong way, most recently:

second would be Oman, for the simple fact that when you do post, I can never read you.

Which is a slightly better reason than just for lurking, but the rest of the town isn't going to buy it. So unless you actually did vote him (or dahen, for that matter), you're still not getting us anywhere, and that seems to be the town's biggest problem at the moment.

Now, I could be wrong here because Norinel does say he's suspicious of GW, but I think this post is pushing GW to vote dahen (the person Norinel is voting for at that time). It seems to me like coaching GW. It is hidden behind saying he's also suspicious of GW, but notice how he never voted GW. I think that is Norinel's way of hiding how he directs GW's vote.

And please note, in the next post, GW VOTES DAHEN. It was like Norinel gave advice and GW followed his directions. The post numbers are 622 and 623 if anyone wants to look for themselves.

I also am wondering what Norinel meant when he said to me:

Being literate doesn't make you town

Also, Norinel said:

Imat claimed no power

I don't really know where he claimed no power, or how it is at all townish to point this out.

[Battle Mage]

Oh and ftr, i'm pretty sure i know who the CR is. But i'm not revealing it until we've nailed the final goon.

And i'm pretty sure it's you.

And if you aren't lynched today, you are dying tonight. So you may as well contribute as best you can if you're town.

You can stop going on about me being anti-town cos i'm 100% proven town.

Anti-town = scum
BUT
Anti-town = dumbass who is town but actually helps scum more than town.

You can kill me if you want. Thats your call, and i'll have done all i can. Of course, you're gonna have trouble nailing the cult without me, but you cant say i didnt warn you.

BM

[Battle Mage]

2-shot vig?

Wow...you really fucked up with that claim. Nice attempt though.

QFAT.

[Battle Mage]

We can afford 2 non-lynches of the mafiate before he is a threat. We could well be in lylo with the cult. Lynching the mafia is only good for the cult.

As Imat is about to be lynched, i'd better fully claim.

I'm not a vig.

I'm a 2-shot vig and i've used both my shots. So I can't shoot the cult tonight. If we lynch the mafia buddy today we have almost certainly lost...

Every fibre of my being is telling me that you have a good reason to defend Imat-because he is your buddy. Of course this cannot be the case, but why would you make up a bogus claim like this in order to save someone you admit is probably scum?

Let me put it like this. There isnt a 2-shot vig in this game. And if there was, it wouldnt be you, because any half-decent 2-shot vig would either claim 1-shot so the scum are less likely to NK you, or would purposefully leave 1 shot in case we mathematically required it towards the end of the game.

Grow up.

BM

[Battle Mage]

PP, is it worth risking losing the game automatically in order to take a shot at the CR, when the far safer option of killing confirmed scum is available?
Not saying your wrong obv, but i think you're shooting at the wrong target.

BM

[Xtoxm]

Go fuck yourself.

[Battle Mage]

Go fuck yourself.

It'll be my pleasure.
And afterwards, i'm coming back to request you are modkilled.



BM

[Pink Puppy]

Please stop fighting boys.

PP, is it worth risking losing the game automatically in order to take a shot at the CR, when the far safer option of killing confirmed scum is available?
Not saying your wrong obv, but i think you're shooting at the wrong target.

BM

Help me with the numbers here...

Scenario 1: CR lynched today, mafia kills tonight
Tomorrow: 1 mafia, 0-1 culted, 3-4 town

Scenario 2: Townie lynched today, mafia kills tonight, CR recruits
Tomorrow: 1 mafia, 1 CR, 0-2 culted, 1-3 town

Scenario 3: Mafia lynched today, no kill tonight, CR recruits
Tomorrow: 1 CR, 0-2 culted, 3-5 town

It does look like lynching mafia (Imat) is the way to go here.

[Xtoxm]

Wtf, PP? Scenario 3 can give victory to the cult.

Lynching mafia is not the way to go.

[Pink Puppy]

Even factoring in PRs?

[Pink Puppy]

Because with mafia gone, no power roles can die. And they can't be recruited either.

[Xtoxm]

If there are 4 power roles, then we are fine.

But if there isn't, there's a chance of loss tonight.

[Xtoxm]

And as we know GW was N1, me and Oman have been ruled out for failed attepmts.

Leaving 0-2.

[Pink Puppy]

Please don't vig BM tonight.