Mini 559 - Cult Mafia again - Game over

[Pink Puppy]

If Norinel recruited anyone last night, it was dahen.

[Xtoxm]

I told you I was out of shots. But now I wish I had shot BM last night rather than GW.

[Pink Puppy]

I think you still have shots left. I think you're lying about that.

[Xtoxm]

I assure you, if I had any shots left, BM will die tonight. As I do not have any shots love, he will live to grace us another day.

[Xtoxm]

Yeh I don't know how I typo'd left into love.

[Battle Mage]

^

I think he's coming onto you!

On a serious note, Xtoxm its like this. I'm only saying who the CR is, if you actually do have Vig shots left. Otherwise, theres no issue, and ill reveal it tomorrow and we can lynch them. Obviously if you can assure me that you have shots left, and i will be killed tonight, i will reveal what i know.

BM

[Pink Puppy]

BM... can you comment on my 3 scenarios and if I am missing something. xtoxm seems to think my scenarios mean we should lynch the CR. Please help.

If we lynch the mafia goon (Imat) I want the chance to post something before we go to night.

[Battle Mage]

BM... can you comment on my 3 scenarios and if I am missing something. xtoxm seems to think my scenarios mean we should lynch the CR. Please help.

If we lynch the mafia goon (Imat) I want the chance to post something before we go to night.

I dont get great pleasure from playing Mathia. But, Xtoxm is missing 2 things. Firstly, his vig kills give us a greater chance of hitting the cult-something we wont have if we let the mafioso live. Secondly, his stats is WAY off. The odds of the cult winning tonight is in reality infinitely tiny. In fact, the most probable scenario is that the CR is currently alone, and may not even recruit tonight.

I can guess what it is you're going to say.

BM

[Pink Puppy]

I can guess what it is you're going to say.
BM

No you can't!

[Norinel]

Looking back at Norinel's posts I think he perpetuated the problems with OMG, and he also hammered at the end of day in a suspicious way (I have already commented about how I think his hammer was weird).

Early on, I was trying to keep the town from falling into the trap of just talking about him and trying to talk OMG down or convince him that his behavior wasn't helping the town- you took a pretty similar tack at first. We talked about the timing of the hammer yesterday, but by that point it was clear he wasn't going to change, he wasn't helping the town, he expected to be lynched, and we'd been waffling over his suicide vote for more than a page.

Now, I could be wrong here because Norinel does say he's suspicious of GW, but I think this post is pushing GW to vote dahen (the person Norinel is voting for at that time). It seems to me like coaching GW. It is hidden behind saying he's also suspicious of GW, but notice how he never voted GW. I think that is Norinel's way of hiding how he directs GW's vote.

And please note, in the next post, GW VOTES DAHEN. It was like Norinel gave advice and GW followed his directions. The post numbers are 622 and 623 if anyone wants to look for themselves.

Easy hole in this one- cult can communicate during the day:

You may communicate with your recruits during the Day, and the cult may communicate with new recruits as soon as I let you know they are recruited.

I also am wondering what Norinel meant when he said to me:

Being literate doesn't make you town

That's going along with the idea that if you're scum, you're playing as the authoritative-sounding one, who decently presents decent arguments that happen to lead the town everywhere except where they need to go.

Also, Norinel said:

Imat claimed no power

I don't really know where he claimed no power, or how it is at all townish to point this out.

That's a stretch- at that point, I was just trying to sort out all the new info. And even if I had malicious intentions, how would it help the cult for me to point it out? If I were CR and had a townie spotted, nobody'd need to know except for me. (And if I were a cultist, I could PM the leader) Incidentally, the claim was in here, with the idea that Imat had sent the killchoice without reading the thread: (emphasis mine)

Do you honestly think Mafia would be selfish enough to leave a replacement, who hadn't read, to decide the NK? Honestly, giving the choice would not be Selfish.

But thats all a moot point because I Don't have a night ability.

And with a claimed Cop, Vig, and Doc, I doubt all of them are telling the truth. I think that would be tweaked in Town's favor a bit much, but I've never played Cults.

I think you still have shots left. I think you're lying about that.

To be honest, I'd had the same thought, but it doesn't do the town any good to point it out. Xtox is town, so if he's lying it'd be for a good reason- and the remaining bad guys having little idea another nightkill's coming is a really good reason.

[Norinel]

But, Xtoxm is missing 2 things. Firstly, his vig kills give us a greater chance of hitting the cult-something we wont have if we let the mafioso live. Secondly, his stats is WAY off. The odds of the cult winning tonight is in reality infinitely tiny. In fact, the most probable scenario is that the CR is currently alone, and may not even recruit tonight.

I think it's pretty likely the Cult recruited last night. Even with the info I have, I've had a handful of people at least pegged as not a power role for a while, and with the CR knowing who's cult, that's a lot more to go on. Plus, all the power role claims probably drew any doc protection from good cult recruits.

[curiouskarmadog]

Official Vote Count

(Page 34, Day 3)

Imat

– 2 (Oman, Battle Mage)

Battle Mage

– 1 (Xtoxm)

Not Voting:

Imat, Norinel, Pink Puppy, dahen

With 7 alive, it's 4 to lynch. 3 is a no lynch.

[Oman]

Fuck the cult is obviously controlling this lynch bye not voting at all.

FoS: Norinel, Pink Pupy, dahen

[Oman]

Fuck the cult is obviously controlling this lynch bye not voting at all.

FoS: Norinel, Pink Pupy, dahen

[Pink Puppy]

I didn't realize the cult could communicate during the day...

On another note:
Oman, I do plan on voting eventually.

[Xtoxm]

So the general consensus seems to be that we should lynch who we believe is mafia and hope the CL fails tonight...

[Pink Puppy]

Well the CR has more of a chance of failing to recruit than the mafia has of failing to kill.

I think that's the reasoning.

[Xtoxm]

Mafia killing doesnt mean we lose, and mafia will want to kill cult anyway, cos mafia is about to lose to the cult just like town is.

[Pink Puppy]

Who do you think the CR is?

Please do not say BM. I don't think it's BM.

[Xtoxm]

BM.

Why don't you think it's BM?

[Pink Puppy]

In what universe would it be useful for a CR to fake claim cop? (Which is what BM did).

[Xtoxm]

Because he thought I was going to NK him that night. He wanted another night to recruit, or just to live...I can't see town doing that unless they really were a cop.

[Pink Puppy]

Claiming cop draws the NK from mafia, if not from you. BM should be dead today. Only reason BM is not dead is that BM is mafia, or Imat is mafia and didn't read the thread.

[Xtoxm]

Doc.

[Pink Puppy]

I know. But he couldn't be sure of protection or that we even have a doc. It's a gamble for BM if he's CR.