Dichotomafia- Games Over

[Fuldu]

If I'm dead in one and alive in the other, can I post role specific information (investigative results, for example) from my dead role during the daytime of my living role? It seems like this is acceptable, but I see no reason that a dead cop from the Mafia game who is still alive in the Werewolf game would have any incentive to lie about his results, nor do I see any reason that the town wouldn't believe him. Either there's something I'm missing or we're going to have precisely the problem that "no talking after you're dead" is supposed to rectify.

[Fuldu]

Only one kill is good news, and in a game this size probably suggests a successful Doc or Roleblocker. I know Norinel was talking about using a specific phraseology for the types of roles, and I don't know if there are Roleblockers in that, but it's something to keep in mind.

Since Norinel said he would answer these questions publically, and I think it's a good habit to get into, even though it's a question I suspect I already know the answer to:

Norinel, what is the name of the Townie role in the Village?

And also, /confirm receipt of my Village role.

[Fuldu]

Oh, looking I see you did this correspondence on the front page. Please disregard my question.

[Fuldu]

10. Werewolfs are cool. (PeaceBringer, STD, King Enigma)

Did all three of them misspell 'werewolves?' 'cause that would be cool, too.

random vote: Uraj45

[Fuldu]

I'm here. I think MMCL's reasoning for voting Talitha is silly, but not scummy. She hasn't defended herself admirably, but, again, I see no reason to vote on that basis.

[Fuldu]

I'm in the "not lynch Talitha" camp. MMCL's "evidence" suggests a greater than to be expected likelihood that one of the two of them is scum, so normally I'd be inclined to lynch one of them just because it's the best information we're going to get Day One. But, if we lynch Talitha and she's town, MMCL has allowed himself a way to wriggle out. Or, if we lynch MMCL and he's telling the truth, we've killed off an investigative role. I'd rather file this away for later and go for somebody else today.

I have a random vote on Uraj45, but his lack of participation and relative non-participation (a random vote, and a jump on the Talitha bandwagon) doesn't do anything to make me want to move it.

[Fuldu]

Aargh, this is what happens when I edit sentences on the fly. That last bit should read "...lack of insights and relative non-participation..."

[Fuldu]

All put together like that, I have to agree with Nanook that it looks scummy. I've been waiting on picking a bandwagon, since most of them to this point have been unclear, but this seems like a good bandwagon to get on.

unvote:uraj45; vote: PeaceBringer

[Fuldu]

the PeaceBringer day one train starts yet again...I am far from impressed

I don't follow the crowd, I play the way I play. If "mafiescum" players try and force everyone to play the same way by pushing to lynch day one of folks they don't like the play style then that is sad.

PB, I would think you would have realized by now that the reason you get bandwagoned in every game you play is because your style of play looks scummy. We're not trying to force you to play "our" way; there isn't one style of play that individuals here use. But, if you continue to play your style of game, you're going to continue to get lynched.

Imagine for a moment that I began every game (regardless of my role) by claiming cop and fingering a randomly chosen player as guilty. I might get away with it on Day One, but unless I was lucky and hit scum, I'd get lynched on Day Two. Over time, as people became accustomed to my style of play, I might get lynched right off on Day One, or else people would start ignoring me. That's where you're headed.

Your play style (and not just in this game) screams "I don't care who we lynch, just kill somebody!" To many people on this site, that looks scummy, so you're getting lynched. Surely you can see why that might appear a scummy attitude to take. Eventually people might get used to it, but what that's going to mean is that townies will stop paying attention to you altogether and scum will try to use you to get other innocents lynched. That isn't a strategy designed to help town win, and I would think you would want to change a play style with those sorts of results.

This, of course, is all premised on the idea that you are who you say you are. As for your claim, my vote stays where it is. Roleblocker is a common enough scum claim, especially as it means someone with a useful role has to come out in order to contradict it. And the odds are in your favor that Uraj45 can't contradict it.

[Fuldu]

I didn't misunderstand how you play, PB; I'm suggesting that you misunderstand how how you play

looks

. I'm not saying that there aren't good reasons for voting someone, even if you don't intend to get them lynched. But that can't apply to a situation in which others are also voting the same person and you just say "I'll play along," as with your vote on Talitha. Furthermore, when you do it three to four times in a single day, it looks like you're just itching to lynch somebody, regardless of whether that's the case or not. I'm merely suggesting that you'll likely get attacked less frequently on Day One if you dial back the volume on your strategy some. I'd also point out that you get better reactions from people when you put more thought into a stated reason to vote for them than "as good a target as any."

[Fuldu]

Well, given Uraj's confirmation of PB's role-block, I'll

unvote: PeaceBringer

. That also neatly dulls my other suspicion, on Uraj45, because I can't think of any reason for scum to do anything but to say he can't confirm anything based on his role (unless they're working together, and it's too early for a gambit like that). My biggest concern at this stage is with lulu muumuu's claim that she knew what Talitha was trying to claim, something Talitha has denied. Somebody else said it, too, but I can't find their post.

[Fuldu]

Well, I'm disinclined toward posting without anything to add, but it does sometimes have to be done. Of the two bandwagons we have, I'm more inclined to vote NanookTheWolf than Talitha, but that's not based on anything other than gut feel and a sense for where we're going to gain the most information. So, no vote at this point, but if my vote is necessary to produce a lynch rather than no lynch, I will before the deadline.

[Fuldu]

I'll wait for MMCL to respond, in case he has a more specific reason than mine, but I have a good reason that MMCL shouldn't give information about his role. On general principles, I disagree with his having come out with it in the first place, but given that he did so, I agree with his not wanting to share details. Besides, Talitha's second argument is crap logic. Sure, the scum know more about MMCL

right now

under those circumstances. But, if Talitha is scum and we lynch her (which seems like what we're going to do), then we know pretty much what they do about MMCL. If Talitha isn't scum and we lynch her, then either MMCL is scum or we know pretty much what they do about him.

[Fuldu]

I have admitted all along that my information could be incorrect. It's not like I will rely on this defense tomorrow if Tally turns out to be innocent.

I knew what I was getting myself into, true, but following me when you KNOW that my information may be incorrect makes you as guilty as me because you know the risk involved. If I hadn't been honest and admitted that my information could be incorrect then you would have a valid case for voting me tomorrow if it all turns out wrong, however as it stands I see that anyone voting Tally based on the information I have has made the same decision I have and is as valid a target tomorrow SHOULD tally be innocent.

I disagree. You have your information and are making a decision based on it. Everyone else is accepting your claim that, though your information could be incorrect, it seems valid enough to merit a vote today. The people following you don't know nearly as well as you the degree of risk involved. If you have some sort of pollster role (unlikely, but being used for illustrative purposes) and know that one of three people, including Tally, is scum, and your sensors tell you that she's the scummiest of the three, then you would know that there's a 1/3 chance that Tally's scum, increased by whatever degree you want to view her actions as scummy. Everybody who is following you doesn't have this information. They may think that your information suggests she has an 80% likelihood of being scum (again augmented by however much you want to assign her behavior). To me, this leaves you much more culpable than those voting with you.

That's not to say there aren't scum among them; I suspect there are. But I think if we're going to lynch tomorrow as a matter of placing blame for Tally's death (should she, as I expect, turn out to be innocent) it ought to be you.

[Fuldu]

I need to get into the habit of this:

Norinel, what is the Village equivalent of the Town role "Doctor"?

[Fuldu]

I think the value in being able to talk about both games is that those dead in one game can talk about it in the other. All the more reason a cop shouldn't come out in one if they're still alive in the other. They can still give their results after their death, one of the real fears in a typical game. I agree with Talitha that there's not a lot of value to talking about Town here today, and that there's certainly not any value to rehashing the question of what Mgm should have done.

[Fuldu]

*Cough*IthinkyoumeantMMCLthere*Cough*

Yes, I did. Sorry.

[Fuldu]

I don't have a bead on anyone at this stage, and all other things being equal, I'd rather keep Wacky around than PeaceBringer. I've gotten a better read on Wacky than PB in the past, and hopefully will be able to do so again if it comes to that.

vote: PeaceBringer

[Fuldu]

PB, I would think you would have realized by now that the reason you get bandwagoned in every game you play is because your style of play looks scummy.

I assume this is what you're referencing regarding my reasoning in the other game? I don't consider them inconsistent at all. If I think that PB always looks scummy, that suggests that I don't have a very good read on him, given that he isn't always scum. Wacky, on the other hand, has a style of play that I recognize and that I feel (rightly or wrongly) I would be better able to detect scummy deviations from. If I don't have enough information for a solid lead on anyone right now, I'd rather keep the players I think I'm more likely to be able to figure out than the ones who are a complete mystery.

[Fuldu]

Side note: Could you tell me for future reference what my style of play is?

Actually, no. Partly because it isn't in my interest for you to know how I think you play and partly because I was trying and I had a very difficult time coming up with words to describe it. I've found that's usually true, unless someone has a very forceful play style, in the IS vein. Like pornography, I can't tell you what it is, but I know it when I see it.

[Fuldu]

I'll probably bite your head off.

Not unlike a werewolf.

[Fuldu]

Unfortunately I don't have much to add to this discussion at the moment, except that although I get Fuldu's rationale, he should probably elaborate in his own words for other people.

I'm beginning to see why people are voting for Fuldu. The "I don't think it's Wacky's style / it could be PB's style" got me on side.

Problem is, he could be mafia or town doing that (biased towards mafia), but because I'm beginning to suspect WW as well, and WW just undermined the wagon, Unvote: PB, Vote: Fuldu

Does anyone else think these quotes (from consecutive Wacky posts) seem contradictory. Admittedly, the grammatical error in the second sentence of the second quote leavs him an out. Namely that it's supposed to read "his side" instead of the implied "their side." But that doesn't seem consistent with the rest of that post.

Also, "I don't think it's Wacky's style/ it could be PB's style." has nothing to do with what I was saying. They both appear to be playing their own style in this game. I merely said that I have a better read on how to distinguish town-Wacky from scum-Wacky. To me, all PB posts look like scum-PB posts and, with no other evidence to go on, I'd rather keep around someone I have some skill at reading than someone I have no skill at reading. That's all the argument was, a justification for picking one of the then two primary bandwagons over the other.

I don't know how to defend myself further in this matter and I have no intention of claiming. Lynch me or move on. I still prefer my vote on PB, because the Wacky stuff above looks erroneous, not scummy. But I don't want bad arguments convincing people to vote for me.

[Fuldu]

What else is there for me to defend against? I made a judgment call about whether I'd rather be on the Wacky bandwagon or the PeaceBringer bandwagon, and provided my reasoning. People don't seem to like that reasoning, so I've tried to explicate it as clearly as possible. Beyond that, I don't see anyone pointing to anything else that I've done as scummy. I am pro-town and I don't intend to claim, so you should make a decision and lynch me or not.

If someone wants to explain to me why I should prefer to keep around people I can't read to people I can, barring other information to contribute to the decision, I wouldn't mind hearing that, too.

[Fuldu]

Bandwagoning to repeated claims on Day One has had more negative effects than positive ones, in my experience. I claimed to be pro-town, which is as much as is necessary for me to help the town at this point. I don't have a powerful role, and there's insufficient information out for you to compare my claim to others to decide whether you believe me. Claiming would have served no purpose. My estimation is that it's better for me to be lynched in a situation where people had to give bad reasons for voting than for the bandwagon to move on to and force out someone with a powerful role.

[Fuldu]

I did explain that I don't think it's inconsistent behavior. If this isn't what you're talking about, then you're going to have to explain it to me better than "[my] inconsistent behavior" in order for me to respond.

PB, I would think you would have realized by now that the reason you get bandwagoned in every game you play is because your style of play looks scummy.

I assume this is what you're referencing regarding my reasoning in the other game? I don't consider them inconsistent at all. If I think that PB always looks scummy, that suggests that I don't have a very good read on him, given that he isn't always scum. Wacky, on the other hand, has a style of play that I recognize and that I feel (rightly or wrongly) I would be better able to detect scummy deviations from. If I don't have enough information for a solid lead on anyone right now, I'd rather keep the players I think I'm more likely to be able to figure out than the ones who are a complete mystery.

[Fuldu]

I'm worried, but I don't see where there's a great deal more that I can do to defend myself. I've tried to respond to all the specific complaints and concerns that people have made regarding my behavior and some are still suspicious. I could claim, and one of two things would happen. Either I wouldn't be believed and I'd still be lynched, or I would be believed and the bandwagon would move on to someone else. But my having claimed sets a precedent for Day One that I don't think is good. Instead, I simply claim to be pro-town and both the above two possibilities still hold. Plus, if the bandwagon does move on to someone else (as I'm still hoping it will), they aren't going to be under as much pressure to claim. If they turn out to be a cop, all the better that they don't have to claim.

[Fuldu]

(Mod note- Nanook editted this post of Fuldu's; his quote is mostly complete, IIRC)

Again, I don't know what else to say. Nanook finds me suspicious because I refuse to claim, but in this situation, I think that refusing to claim sets a positive precedent and claiming would set a negative one. I find him slightly suspicious for thinking it would be to the town's benefit for me to do so. I've tried to examine what some people have considered an incongruity between my Town behavior and my Village behavior. I don't think they're incongruous, and if they are it isn't obvious why people think that means I'm scum here and town there, and not vice-versa. I don't feel I've done anything to merit lynching, but I recognize that it often isn't necessary for people to have a reason on Day One.

Again, I don't know what else to say. Nanook finds me suspicious because I refuse to claim, but in this situation, I think that refusing to claim sets a positive precedent and claiming would set a negative one. I find him slightly suspicious for thinking it would be to the town's benefit for me to do so. I've tried to examine what some people have considered an incongruity between my Town behavior and my Village behavior. I don't think they're incongruous, and if they are it isn't obvious why people think that means I'm scum here and town there, and not vice-versa. I don't feel I've done anything to merit lynching, but I recognize that it often isn't necessary for people to have a reason on Day One.

You know come time to claim in other games, I don't ever see you have a problem, what's so special about this one? Just because I suspect you as scum for not claiming doesn't mean that I think any different of you in the other thread just so you know. In other words if you are scum here, it doesn't mean that I automatically assume that you're town in the town thread.

[Fuldu]

I'm confused. That isn't your quote, is it?

The interior is what I originally posted there. The exterior is not something I wrote. I believe it is as Talitha said, that someone edited my post rather than quoting it.

[Fuldu]

I am trying not to claim anything, willows_weep. I've said I'm not a terribly strong or important role (which is more than I wanted to say, even still), so you can infer what you like from that. I'm making the argument that it is for the benefit of the town that I (or most anyone who is bandwagoned Day One) not claim, and try to have you judge me on the basis of my actions. I don't believe my actions today have been scummy, but clearly there are those who disagree.

[Fuldu]

Yes, I did mean Wacky, w_w. Sorry. I think I fixated on the name in the quote, not at the head of the post.

[Fuldu]

He edited my post 530, FD. At least, that's the best explanation we've been able to come up with for why my post is now a quote inside something that Nanook admits to having written. He has mod powers on this board, so he probably just hit edit instead of quote. I'm the one acted upon and I'm the one about to be lynched, and even I think it was just an innocent mistake, so I don't think there's any reason to get worked up about it.

[Fuldu]

Who will be lynched... next?

What is this,

The Amazing Race

?

As for Town, I'd like to hear MMCL's information from Night Two and will decide on the basis of that whether to trust him or lynch him.

[Fuldu]

I have additional information that makes me believe you are scum Tally

Ultimately - I have reason to believe Tally is scum. I will not 'out' myself and say which kind of information role I have - but I believe I will need protection tonight as a result.

I presented as much information as possible and gave the town the oppurtunity to make their own mind up.

Clearly I'm not the only one who feels that you're going to have to do better than that, MMCL. You have at least two pieces of information you could still share:

a) Your results from last night, which I've already requested, and
b) More details about your role and how it functions, which you tried to hide yesterday.

I understand why you wouldn't want to disclose b), but I have a feeling that if you don't you're going to get lynched. Start with a) and we'll see where we go from there.

[Fuldu]

Let's look at this logically, with no kill last night we are at the same position we are just after we incorrectly lynched Talitha. The best option for the town regardless of what you think I am is to no-lynch. The chance we will hit a pro-town player for the lynch is high and at least this way we won't do that. Looking at the voting so far, I am that pro-town player.

Well that's just crap logic. If this were truly the case, the best choice for town Day One would nearly always be to no lynch. I don't think I've ever seen you make that argument.

If Tally was alive I could convince her that I am not scum, and I do it the same way I would convince her. I ask you all to trust me. Seriously guys - trust me. Tally knows that I will only ever say that if the situation is dire and I am being honest.

I have defended myself as much as I can - I am innocent. If you check back you will see I have answered every question put to me. As for my claim being convuleted well, it's the truth - what more can I say?

And how is "it's the truth" substantively distinct from "trust me"? I watched your scum play in Bonus very carefully; I was your GF, after all. You came out with an excruciatingly outrageous claim (trying unsuccesfully to save me from lynch) and then worked the sheer ludicrousness of it for several game days until you were night-killed by the opposing scum team. Somehow that's an effective ploy for you, and I don't intend to let town fall for it here.

vote: MMCL

[Fuldu]

Nanook, you've claimed to have a nighttime action. What, if anything, happened with it last night?

[Fuldu]

Since I think Wacky is looking at me as backing up his request for a claim from Nanook, I'd like to clarify that that's not what I'm asking about. He has claimed to have a blockable (and blocked, Night 2), but not killing, action. I don't yet want to know what it is, but I'd like to know whether it worked last night.

[Fuldu]

So I'd like to make a brief synopsis of what I recall about the Town situation, because it's awfully difficult to keep track of what's happened. I expect there are errors in this and I know there are holes, please correct/fill them.

Nanook - claimed roleblocker, targeted tss, w_w
PeaceBringer - claimed roleblocked Night 2, in contradiction to Nanook's targeting
w_w - claimed cop, I actually did reread this part and I can't tell if she's claiming a regular cop or a weird cop who gets results for the Village. I'd assume the former, but all her posts seem like they've gone through Babelfish on their way here. Investigative results are thus uncertain to me, but I think she has suggested that she did receive results Night 2.

Now, I can see three reasonable explanations. First, Nanook is scum. Second, a second roleblocker exists and w_w wasn't blocked Night 2 for one of a number of other reasons. Third, a target swapper exists, swapping Nanook with someone who targeted PeaceBringer Night 2. I'd discount this third possibility, largely because Norinel appears to be taking his roles directly from commercially-available decks, and I don't think I've ever seen one of those with a target swapper. That argument, though, also works against Nanook's claim that his role has a "twist" that Norinel didn't tell him about.

On the basis of the above, I'm ready to vote Nanook, but I'd like to give people the opportunity to correct my facts, where appropriate, first.

[Fuldu]

I'm sorry ralphm, you're going to need to be more specific than that. I can't for the life of me remember what happened yesterday and, while I will be going back and rereading, it's going to take some time. Help out those of us who basically turn this game off during the times when we're dead by asking slightly more informative questions.

[Fuldu]

Coron, your list basically boils down to "I don't think KingEnigma or PeaceBringer is scum," and it appears that your only reason for that is that they attacked Nanook in the first couple days instead of going after MMCL or Talitha. It's not a terrible argument, but neither is it a great one. Scum attack one another all the time, and the early days are often the best time to do it. But the way you've chosen to frame it ('these people might be scum' as versus 'these people seem relatively innocent'), especially when your actual argument is based on which people have exhibited innocent behavior, seems scummy to me.

vote: Coron

[Fuldu]

How is that fingering them, Coron? Of the ten players left, you fingered seven. Excellent odds you're right (assuming you aren't scum, which I don't), but not at all useful. I don't like it because, as per usual Coron arguments, it gives the appearance of having something worthwhile to say when, in fact, it doesn't. This one, though, does so in a way that I find scummy rather than just stupid.

As for the Talitha or MMCL bandwagon Day One, it was clear to anyone with half a brain that one of the two of them was going to be lynched. There was too much ardor in their arguments and they were being largely contradictory. If you were scum and knew that neither of them was scum, wouldn't you get off the bandwagons and wait for town to do the dirty work themselves?

[Fuldu]

It does beg the question. What would you have stolen if you'd chosen the hospital?

It's a reasonable question, but I don't think it's impossible that the three locations just had different probabilities of various usages and that, while an investigative item was more likely from the Police Station than from the Hospital and vice versa for a protective item, STD just happened upon a protective item.

That said, it doesn't seem like a very believable claim. And, since it doesn't seem like an especially powerful role, I'd like to request that if any living player has the analogous role in the Village, they come out and say so. I know that there are a decent number of players dead here but not there, so it's not definitive, but if no one comes out with it, my vote's going on STD. Also, if you're scum here with the Thief role there and don't want to simplify things for us, keep in mind that if/when your role does finally come out over there (if you claim, if you're killed, whatever) you're going to be under strong suspicion here.

[Fuldu]

I can't decide whether the lack of response to my suggestion that a Thief analogue in Village come out with it is due to a) people thinking it's a bad idea, b) lack of participation, c) that player being dead, or d) there being no such person. I still want to move my vote to STD, but I'm going to wait a little longer on it. Any discussion, even from people who just want to say that they

aren't

a Thief analogue in the Village, would make my decision easier.

[Fuldu]

We're not going to get any further with this, are we?

vote: Save The Dragons

[Fuldu]

It's not that it's a creative claim, STD. It's that it's a

bad

creative claim. That's a lot of effort to go to to create a complicated role that just ends up being a one-shot doc. And while my "is there another role in the village" plan hasn't been as informative as I had hoped, it hasn't been completely uninformative, either.

[Fuldu]

Ah, right you are.

unvote: Coron; vote: Save The Dragons

[Fuldu]

Fuldu
Uraj45 (Replacing KingEnigma (Replacing Uraj45))
willows_weep
PeaceBringer
Fishbulb
Coron (Replacing lulu muumuu)
ralphmerridew

That's everybody who's still alive. I have a horrible time tracking this game, so if we could get a clarification on who has claimed what, I'd appreciate it. I'm happy to claim if Coron so desires, but I still don't quite understand the rationale behind his "list." Without claiming, let me say in my defense that I was one of the primary promoters of disbelief in STD's claim yesterday. My wishy-washiness on Nanook doesn't look as good, I'll admit.

Also, if you compare Town's dead to Village's dead, you can see that we still have a living analogue to "Apprentice Healer," i.e. Backup Doc. I don't know that we really want to make it easier for scum to find such an individual.

And, to further pin down what we do and don't have left (and since anyone who was going to false claim would do this privately with the mod, anyway):

Mod

- What is the Town equivalent of Apprentice Healer? What is the Town equivalent of Seer? What is the Village equivalent of Outsider?

[Fuldu]

Let's stir things up.

Vote:Fishbulb

That's a post from Mgm in town yesterday. I don't know how you came to the conclusion that Fishbulb was a mason, or even why you think there's necessarily a third mason, but it seems like a pretty bad argument to me. As things stand, I trust your claim of vig, Coron, since there was an otherwise unexplained killing last night, but everything else on your list doesn't especially move me.

[Fuldu]

I would have done better leaving my kill on MoS I think I figured out why fishbulb was defending him by the end of the night so I changed my kill.

Wait, what? You're saying that you caused the shooting kill last night instead of the mauling kill? That's not consistent with, well, anything. And even if you misspoke or Norinel made an error because it's late, what kind of good-guy vig mauls somebody to death?

It's hard to imagine a scenario in which you're scum. I mean, a SK showing up this late in the game (and not yet at all in the other), would be very unusual. But something about this situation doesn't track.

Still, based on the dangerous possible interpretation of this kill info, I'm going to take a flier:

Mod

: What is the

Village

equivalent of Werewolf?

I'm assuming I'm going to get a "Does Not Compute" error for this question, but Werewolves cause maulings and we had a mauling in Town last night, so it seems worth asking. If there's a Werewolf in Town, there's probably also a silent Mafia member in the Village, and they're probably both scum, biding their time.

[Fuldu]

I guess I should correct that to say that the shooter

has

shown up in Village, but again, not until Night Four. That's far more consistent with one-shot vig behavior than with SK behavior, but the mauling we saw is still just weird to me.

[Fuldu]

This is a long post with some specific questions directed at specific players, generally indicated in bold. Please read the whole thing, because I think we've reached the stage where this is important.

First, just to make sure that the receipt of an answer from the mod means that the role actually exists:

Mod

: What is the Village equivalent of Flying Pumpkin?

But, assuming that we actually have a SK who has somehow managed to coordinate with his Village counterpart to not kill until now, it means one of two things. Either a) in contrast to every other role in this game, the SKs are allowed to communicate across the border between Town and Village, or b) the SK's roles randomly (or, I suppose, possibly not randomly, if Norinel saw fit to balance the role that way), ended up hitting the same person, who, of course, could communicate with himself.

I think the latter is the more probable of the two explanations, which means PeaceBringer or ralphmerridew, the only two players still alive in both Town and Village. Of the two, I'm more inclined to suspect PeaceBringer largely because, though he isn't dead in Village, it seems like ralphm is pretty well confirmed as a mason.

ralphmerridew

, on the above, is it true that there is a third mason in Village?

In support of the SK hypothesis, I'd point out that three Werewolves are dead in Village. If there isn't a SK (or another Werewolf, I suppose), why isn't the game over?

If Coron and ralphm are telling the truth (and I believe Coron at present, even if that situation is still confusing) and if this guess on a SK is correct (even if it isn't PB), then with my knowledge of my own role, I can nearly pin down what the list of the remaining seven roles ought to be. PeaceBringer has claimed roleblocker in Town, no roleblocker yet appears in Village, and he has never been verified as a roleblocker. In fact, he last posted that he didn't use his blocking powers Nights Three and Four. I think there's a high probability that he's scum and, in particular, a SK.

ralphm has claimed townie. I'll do the same. I'd like PeaceBringer to fully claim (actual role name for verification on the roleblocker thing) and Coron should do the same. If a Werewolf SK exists, one of the four of us is definitely lying (possibly two). We can address the question of whether Fishbulb, Uraj45, and willows_weep should claim (trying to pin down who the other scum might be) afterward.

I was going to keep my list to myself, but decided that if I'm trying to bring PeaceBringer's claim into question, it makes better sense to simply put it out there. I can more easily point to the conclusions to be drawn once the list is readily available.

Roles we know still exist:
Mafia
Nurse
Mason (pending verification of three members by ralphm)

Roles that have been claimed:
1-Vig
Roleblocker
Townie
Townie

Roles I believe exist:
Werewolf (SK)

That's eight roles to seven players. It relies on the existence of a total of four scum in the game. Whether that fourth scum is a SK or Mafia merely affects where the scum is likely to be. But I think the fact that the game isn't over in Village should strongly suggest that a total of four scum exist.

Coron and Fishbulb

, I'd understand if you didn't want to answer, but is there a fourth Werewolf left in Village? The answer will probably help us a lot more here than it's going to hurt you there.

Coron - one-shot vig
Fishbulb -
Fuldu - townie
PeaceBringer - roleblocker
ralphmerridew - townie
Uraj45 -
willows_weep -

I guess I'll just add that this also makes possible a list of the remaining roles in Village. Again, if my information is correct, the villagers are doing substantially better there, with the Werewolves eliminated and PB as a good (if not certain) bet for the remaining SK. On the other hand, if there's a mauling in Village tonight (unless it's the one-shot vig who, since he claims to shoot in Town, would probably claim to maul in Village), it means the Werewolves aren't eliminated, that there's an extra Mafia in my list for Town, and that either Coron or ralphm

must

be lying (or me, but I'm not) and that second remaining Town Mafia scum. I don't think it's all that likely, but it's a possibility to keep in mind once we head to night here.

Definite Village Roles:
Mason
Mason
Shaman

Probable Village Roles:
Mafia SK (Again, with three dead werewolves, why isn't the game over in Village?)

Claimed by Proxy Village Roles:
1-Vig
Roleblocker
Townie
Townie

Village Scum and Vig

: Obviously you should keep an eye on what else happens here today (Hypocrite! Have you read anything that's happened in the Village since you died there? No, I just keep asking the other players for updates.), but I'd recommend considering PB as a target over there.

[Fuldu]

Thanks, ralphm. Do you have any comments on the rest of my analysis/speculation? You're generally a level-headed person and I'd like to make sure there aren't any holes in my theory that I've missed. And, less generously, I'd also like the three other players I think the town should be examining to hash it out amongst themselves. Of Fishbulb, Uraj45, and willows_weep, two are confirmable innocents (Mason and Nurse) unless the third decides to counterclaim. The four of us are who we really need to be looking at at present.

[Fuldu]

Oy! And now I've just noticed that Nanook claimed Seer (Cop) in Village when there's one that's already dead. The most probable answer is that he's lying and either a fourth Werewolf or the posited SK (in which case I'm obviously wrong about the dual nature of the SK and a little less inclined to suspect PB). But this substantially increases the likelihood that there are two scum remaining there and (yoink!) three here.

Since I want to make sure they're at least participating, anyway, if Fishbulb, Uraj45, and willows_weep could all post and simply say Cop or Not Cop (and, I guess, if Cop, give results since we're approaching endgame), without any other claiming, that would help pin down the roles in Village, which helps pin down roles here in Town.

I know these posts have rambled a bit, but there's a lot of information here and I don't feel like we're taking advantage of it.

[Fuldu]

I agree, but verifying that to a near-certainty is different from believing it to be so. And if you believe that, why didn't Nanook get lynched in Village? The Seer counterpart to MMCL is dead and the counterpart to Wacky is Shaman, but Nanook has claimed Seer. I don't want to get too caught up in the Village roles, but I think that going back and forth between the two games to pin down exactly which roles do and do not exist in the two games is going to help us a lot. Plus, I'm verifiably pro-village in that game, so if we can prove that Nanook is scum, that's going to help me on that end, as well.

[Fuldu]

I'd been sure as well, and the innocence of PB, coupled with the fact that asking for a counterpart doesn't verify the existence of a counterpart, means I really don't know whether I'm right. But I can't come up with another wholly adequate explanation of last night's mauling (which, even after the changes, still occurred). The mauling now lines up with Coron's claimed kill, so the behavior is substantially more consistent with a one-shot vig than it was before. But the form doesn't seem consistent with pro-town to me. I don't know what to think, but am willing to drop it for the time being.

I would still say that, given that the game in Village isn't over, somebody (probably Nanook) is scum there and we still have two scum here. MoS is cleared, and fortunately, would be cleared even without the mod error, since we know there are masons. MoS can clear his partner and the Nurse can be cleared. That's three of seven. I'm inclined to give Coron the benefit of the doubt that the mauling is just the way his single shot works, even if it still makes me uncomfortable. That narrows the field to ralphm, myself, and whichever of Fishbulb, Uraj45, and willows_weep is neither Nurse nor Mason. That doesn't actually seem too bad. I don't know whether Norinel has prodded the three of them (and MoS, since he probably isn't watching this game any more), but I'm happy to wait until they show up and we hear what they have to say.

[Fuldu]

No one has been cleared. At best, it suggests that Uraj is paranoid or insane (his PB result), or that he's scum.

[Fuldu]

And no Apprentice Healer analogue? That's bad, it means they aren't perfectly mirrored setups which throws almost all the logic I've been using out the window.

Also, I've just posted in V/LA about limited access this week, but since this is the game I'm in that's closest to the end, I'm going to try to keep up with this more than the others.

[Fuldu]

Yeah, I knew that was going to come up. I apologize for the confusion that occurred, but I really did believe that comparing the setups in the Town and Village would provide us the most valuable information. The SK suggestion and subsequent suspicion of PB was based on the error in the mod-provided information about the kills, and when that information was edited, I rescinded those comments.

I'd also point out that I have a bit of a penchant for off-the-wall thinking. You can look at my accusation of inHimshallibe in SanGrael for an example in which this approach worked to the benefit of the town. Here, I'll freely admit I was wrong, but I was able to come to that conclusion before I had pushed the town to do anything we'd regret.

[Fuldu]

I don't know that I can say much more in my defense than that I was doing what I thought best for the town. I'd ask that Talitha and those who suspect me but haven't yet voted (ralphm) look at the extent to which I attempted to verify my conclusions. If I were scum, I could have kept pushing at faulty conclusions, but I wanted to try to see whether there was a way to check that they were correct. And when Norinel changed the information I was basing my conclusions on, I dropped them.

I'm pretty confident one of the claimed vanilla townies is lying, and it's not me, but I can't decide whether I'm more suspicious of ralphmerridew or Fishbulb. But with a deadline and a vote already out, I'll have to

vote: Fishbulb

.

[Fuldu]

Crap. Looking at the way Talitha describes the situation, I'd vote for me. I clearly haven't played very well in this game. I am, however, exactly who I say I am and (since I doubt Norinel will accept ralphm's voting strategy) about to be lynched. My Fishbulb vote was as a result of little preference between the two and the fact that a vote was on Fishbulb already. Since the vote has been removed, I'm back to relative indifference, but ralphm's most recent post seems pro-town (if, again, wrong) where Fishbulb's doesn't.

My interpretation is that Uraj was saying he considered me the least likely candidate because my speculations seemed well-intentioned, which they were. He's willing to grant me the benefit of the doubt because I owned up to it when subsequent evidence contradicted my conclusions. My goals were good ones, even if my results weren't. Whether you agree with the argument or not, saying that it doesn't make sense that such an argument would make me less suspicious in someone's eyes is dishonest.

As a separate appeal to someone who probably won't get the opportunity to change his mind, let me say this. ralphm, we were highly successful scum together in More Mountainous. Does my behavior in this game accord in any way with my strategy for success in that game? Would it make sense for me to use a wholly different strategy here simply to fool you?

[Fuldu]

I think my biggest complaint was that is was very difficult to keep track of what was going on when you were out of play for weeks at a time. Oh, and that I got boring roles in both halves. Other than that, a very interesting game.