Dichotomafia- Games Over

[the silent speaker]

Not really a question, but something you should be apprised of: the Jewish holdiay season is appraching, and it falls out this year that most of the computer-absolutely-not-allowed days are Thursday-Friday. That means that I will not be posting from Wednesday afternoon at latest to Saturday night at earliest for some weeks (this one, for instance). I should still be able to participate, and I don't want to be replaced, but expect my posts to be mainly in the first half of the week for the first three weeks or so.

[the silent speaker]

Confirming village role and also bah.

[the silent speaker]

vote: Wacky

because by chance he was the eventual lynching vote on Dr. Talitha in the town.

[the silent speaker]

I know. Hence the "by chance" in my post. It's no better than random (in fact, it effectively is random), but it certainly isn't worse.

[the silent speaker]

What are you talking about, PB?

[the silent speaker]

Oklay, is anyone of the Wacky or PB voters doing it for any reason besides "Hey, we don't know he's not and he's got other people voting for him"? Because I hate bandwagons like that and will be withdrawing my vote unless someone can come up with a reason not to.

[the silent speaker]

Okay, Fuldu's last post looks seriously hinky to me. On top of which, it's inconsistent with the reasons he stated for voting PeaceBringer in the town. That's enough for me to

unvote: Wacky, vote: Fuldu

.

[the silent speaker]

Fuldu did. In fact, I'm voting Fuldu for it, but got left off the vote count.

[the silent speaker]

Fuldu brought up PB's style and readability before PB did.

[the silent speaker]

That's pretty dangerous, Talitha. Sometimes someone will miscount and think they're putting someone one off when in fact they're lynching him, and sometimes the mafia will lynch and claim they miscounted and thought they were putting someone one off.

[the silent speaker]

The silence of the town is worrying me. It's been a day and a half since the last post.
Silgado:

If he's a town role that's weak, he's right, if we lynch him, we keep ourselves from rabidly outing an important role.

If he's skum and he's trying to escape by claiming "I'm a weak pro-town role, ignore me."

I'm not really worried about the flaw right now, because I doubt that it's the case.

Why did you not see fit to mention what the flaw is, if you doubt it so?

[the silent speaker]

He said he was blocked night 2. But I agree that it is in everybody's interest for him to reveal exactly what he had on Talitha night 1.

[the silent speaker]

Fair? I'll give you fair. This is the only place I

can

talk about it, and in fact the whole point of the game is that we can talk about either in both. That way just because you're dead doesn't mean you can't comment on the game.

[the silent speaker]

vote: Flying Dutchman

. He said he's "shamelessly bandwagoning" Nanook when there wasn't a bandwagon on Nanook yet.

[the silent speaker]

No, you're right, that post of Wacky's is ringing all kinds of bells. Not just the" wolfy wagon" line, but the paragraph about PB too has a couple of things that look wrong. I'm trying to remember why I decided to hold off voting for Wacky awaiting developments, and right now I'm drawing a blank. I think it might have been sheer laziness.

[the silent speaker]

No, you're right, that post of Wacky's is ringing all kinds of bells. Not just the" wolfy wagon" line, but the paragraph about PB too has a couple of things that look wrong. I'm trying to remember why I decided to hold off voting for Wacky awaiting developments, and right now I'm drawing a blank. I think it might have been sheer laziness.

[the silent speaker]

Unfortunately, I hadn't found FD unusually suspicious, or Wacky unusually not so. I've had a pretty lousy feel for anyone this game. Lacking any real suspicions of my own, I've been reduced to being pretty much a follower.
Anyway, this is what bugged me about Wacky's post:

That makes two (that is, unless PB is lying), and probably a mafia blocker in there regardless of whether PB is telling the truth.

He seems to be trying to suggest that PB lied about being a blocker, when he's already been confirmed. At the same time, he assumes that one of the blockers is mafia and therefore we should lynch PB for that reason. After that, he hedges his bets yet again by throwing in that PB "doesn't seem very suspicious"!
Then, of course, he invented a nonexistent wolfwagon and "joined". Even the discussion of Nanook which

had

taken place made no mention of lynching him here.

[the silent speaker]

I'm here.

Unvote: FD, vote: lulu

to put a little more pressure on, and because in lieu of any pressing suspicions of my own I'll blindly follow the crowd.

The only dissuasion I can give Fishbulb that I haven't already, and I know it's weak, is that if neither FD nor Wacky was suspicious (as indicated by "the rest of the candidates are more random") then by extension I ought not to be suspicious for picking on one of them and not the other. Ordinarily I wouldn't even bother using this as an argument, but the pace of this game (and, let's face it, of my participation in it) leads me to scrape the bottom of the logic barrel here, just to have said something.

[the silent speaker]

Lulu got replaced already. Interestingly, it was Flying Dutchman who Coron (the newnew muumuu) named as his best bet to lynch.

[the silent speaker]

Come to think, I think I'm still voting Coron myself.

unvote: Coron

since FD may have just put him one away from a lynch.

[the silent speaker]

Nothing of content has been added to the game on this entire page, and it goes back two weeks.

Unvote if I have a vote on and vote: Nanook

for not posting once in that stretch, and in hopes of stirring things up.

[the silent speaker]

*blindly follows*

vote: STD

[the silent speaker]

I got nothing. STD, if nothing changes this week you're a goner, say something. Suspicions, counteraccusations, anything. PeaceBringer, Fishbulb, MOS, Speedy, any thoughts at all?

[the silent speaker]

Why MOS, PB? What did STD not say that convinced you so quickly? I'm not appallingly suspicious of STD myself, for all I'm voting him, but why did you suddenly decide that you needed to be voting MOS on the basis of STD's not having any more to say?

[the silent speaker]

Unvote: STD.

I'm not going to vote for anyone else until I can get some kind of nonrandom reason to vote for them.

STD, I wasn't unsatisfied with the information. I just didn't want to unvote

too

quickly, either. I wanted to see where everyone else took the information.

Surely

someone

has some ideas?

[the silent speaker]

Nah, if Speedy's scum today he'll be scum tomorrow. Game's stagnating enough without penalizing people for replacing.
Which side was PeaceBringer cleared in? I forget, and I'll vote him for that quick vote-unvote on MOS unless this is the side he's known pro-town.

[the silent speaker]

Nah, if Speedy's scum today he'll be scum tomorrow. Game's stagnating enough without penalizing people for replacing.
Which side was PeaceBringer cleared in? I forget, and I'll vote him for that quick vote-unvote on MOS unless this is the side he's known pro-town.

[the silent speaker]

Vote: Fishbulb

to help protect the mason.

[the silent speaker]

That FOS is really a little much, ralph. You suspect him, and there's no law that says he can't suspect you.

[the silent speaker]

Halfpint just replaced in; it wouldn't be cricket to lynch her for her pains. Mgm tried to get STD to give out flavor text yesterday, which is unlikely to help catch someone in a lie (since my lack of flavor text does not mean that you also have none) but might be useful as public information for a maf who wants to make his claim look good. Since it's between him, MOS and Nanook today, from my standpoint,

vote: Mgm

and let's see what happens.

[the silent speaker]

Why are you disregarding everyone else?

I'm not, yet. Hence the "let's see what happens" part. I'm looking for reactions.

We lynched scum didn't we? I can't see how outing a fake claim can be a bad thing.

Yeah, but not because of flavor text issues. My point was that it isn't easy to trip up someone on flavor text most of the time, but scum might probe townies for theirs to better forge their own.

[the silent speaker]

dp to clarify: we lynched scum, but not because of flavor text. And asking for flavor text isn't that likely to out a fake claim because blah blah and furthermore blah.

[the silent speaker]

TSS was quite instrumental in getting votes for Wacky, since he provided the reasoning, yet he never once voted for Wacky on that day, and spent most of the day voting for myself (FD) with less reasoning than he had for Wacky.

Then wouldn't you be better served by looking at the people who 'followed' me -- i.e. Mgm? Who was third on that wagon, and second was scum Lulu muumuu, I might add. At any rate, I didn't even mention Wacky's name until

you

complained that he was as guilty-looking as you were, by my resoning, so why was I voting you and not him? Afterward I conceded that

you were right

and Wacky was suspicious, but (post 647) that none of my suspicions so far had been heavy ones. Complaining that I furnished the reasoning for a Wackywagon when I only did so after you yourself prodded me for not having done strikes me as a little ungrateful.

If you want me to claim, I can, and my claim will be confirmable, but I'd rather not paint a target on my back unless people really want me to.

[the silent speaker]

TSS was quite instrumental in getting votes for Wacky, since he provided the reasoning, yet he never once voted for Wacky on that day, and spent most of the day voting for myself (FD) with less reasoning than he had for Wacky.

Then wouldn't you be better served by looking at the people who 'followed' me -- i.e. Mgm? Who was third on that wagon, and second was scum Lulu muumuu, I might add. At any rate, I didn't even mention Wacky's name until

you

complained that he was as guilty-looking as you were, by my resoning, so why was I voting you and not him? Afterward I conceded that

you were right

and Wacky was suspicious, but (post 647) that none of my suspicions so far had been heavy ones. Complaining that I furnished the reasoning for a Wackywagon when I only did so after you yourself prodded me for not having done strikes me as a little ungrateful.

If you want me to claim, I can, and my claim will be confirmable, but I'd rather not paint a target on my back unless people really want me to.

[the silent speaker]

How come you're not claiming, Mgm? You're the one who's been pushing for a mass claim, you're the one with the most votes, yet you haven't tried to claim yourself...

[the silent speaker]

Besides, you're voting me based on something I did in the town.

Say what?

[the silent speaker]

Your post 877 was

village

day 3, Mgm. Reproduced in full:

STD: What is the flavoured role name of a vig in this game?

My claim: mason with ralph.

[the silent speaker]

Double post to say: Passover is coming up, so my access for a bit over a week will be sporadic (hopefully not nonexisistent, though).

[the silent speaker]

We're idiots, people.

We have lynches to give.

With one wolf left, we can spare three lynches. With two wolves left, going by the claims they have to be among Mgm, MOS and halfpint, so only one lynch will need to be spared in any case. I'm willing to go for MOS today, Mgm tomorrow and halfpint the day after, if necessary.

Unvote: Mgm, vote: MOS

.

Nanook:

if MOS turns up scum and the game's not over, investigate Mgm tonight, and tomorrow we'll know for sure who to lynch. I think this lynch order guarantees us the win.

[the silent speaker]

PB was named innocent by cop willows_weep, and with the Dogfather dead a sane cop would have found a wolfy PB guilty. I'm not sure why it's assumed that willows wasn't naive, but there you have it.

We have five people left. One is a werewolf, and (assuming not PB) that's Mgm; STD has an alibi for the mauling, in that he was at the shooting. BUT. It's still possible that STD is a serial killer.
Let's see. In that case there are two scum alive; lynching either wipes out his group and day breaks with three. I assume those three will (if we lynch STD) be Mgm, PB and ralph, and then we have to hope that ralph guesses right. There's a fair chance of it, since Mgm is much likelier to be scum IMO than PeaceBringer is, but there's still a fair chance of it going sour. Call it ballpark two-thirds town win in that case.
If we follow STD's plan to the letter, best case is he's town and the one scum is dead by the end of the night; worst case is we lynch the wrong wolf candidate, there are four going into the night, and (since this is worst case) two of them are scum. If the mafia kills one of the masons we've lost, since there will be two alive in the morning and one of them a serial killer -- and that's if STD doesn't simply decide to cross us all the way up. Middle case is we lynch the right wolf, and go into night with one scum in four and we know just who it is: STD. Two guaranteed wins, one very likely loss, overall odds roughly 70%.
If we lynch and STD doesn't kill: 1. We lynch right. Game over, town win. STD will cross us up if he's scum but then we just lynch him tomorrow. 2. We lynch wrong. Night falls with four alive. If STD is town, he won't cross us and three wake up, one scum. We lynch that one and bingo. If however STD is scum, I think we're stuck again in the worst case above.
Wait. If STD is scum and doesn't cross us, then what? Five alive now; four go into night. Three wake, we lynch one, two go into night... no, I think we lose then. Crap.

Bottom line is this. We have to reckon with one mauling tomorrow anyway unless we get the wolf today, and if we do get the wolf, STD would be killing a townie. So we have to lynch right between Mgm and PB today irrespective of all other considerations. OK then. Best go with the plan from yesterday then and

vote: Mgm

. STD, if Mgm is town shoot PB,

and not otherwise.

[the silent speaker]

The thing is, ralph, that once we lynch Mgm and STD kills PeaceBringer

and Peacebringer kills whoever

, there will only be two people left. If STD is scum (and I grant that he's probably not) he won't be lynchable.

STD, if Mgm is town, I do want you to shoot PB. I want you to be clearly under orders *not* to shoot him if Mgm is scum mainly to prevent oopsies. If PB is scum too, so that day breaks with yet another mauling (which makes five werewolves in a town of sixteen!) we will be safe enough with three people alive without your kill, two of whom will know exactly who to vote for; and if day breaks with a shooting, we know where your loyalties lie.

All of this is worst-case scenario. I expect Mgm to be the last werewolf and the lynch of him to end the game, especially since the shootings didn't start until two nights ago.

[the silent speaker]

PB is dead tonight, if MGM is not the last wolf.

Good. I want this to happen. It's if Mgm

is

the last wolf that I want you to lay off.