Mini 586 - Blood Red Mafia - Game Over!

[Macavenger]

Ah, game has started. Hello everyone.

No random vote from me this game.

[Macavenger]

Vote: Malthusis

[Macavenger]

Vote: Malthusis

This to me is an extremely bad play. Why would you come up to vote for no reason when you haven't talked at all?

Major FoS :Macavenger

I was testing a theory that you seemed a bit jumpy in your responses to stuff flying around in the random voting stage.

You just flunked the test. Badly. And get to keep the vote as a result.

[Macavenger]

It seems I lost the random stage, but luckily this means zero to nothing in finding scum, so lets get serious, ok?

Actually it doesn't. You can find out quite a bit from the random stage.

I was testing a theory that you seemed a bit jumpy in your responses to stuff flying around in the random voting stage.
You just flunked the test. Badly. And get to keep the vote as a result.

I dont like this, seriously.

FoS : Macavenger.

Why don't you like my scumhunting technique? Explain.

[Macavenger]

Why don't you like my scumhunting technique? Explain.

Because:
a) it can still hunt eager townies.
b) I dont see how you can catch scum with overreaction.

A) Possibly. But it's far more likely to catch scum.
B) Reactions are what this game is all about. Scum are more likely to overreact because they have more to lose by dying than a townie does.

More Malthusis votes would be good. I'm interested to see how he'd react under real pressure.

[Macavenger]

I gave an FoS because I thought that a vote on someone would sound more scummy right now then a FoS.

Interesting choice of words. Why are you so concerned with what might sound scummy?

About reactions, it seems to me that everyone can react differently, they're helpful, I know, but they dont prove anything.

When did I ever say I thought it proved anything? The only real proof in mafia comes with death.

I didnt like his last response, BTW.

What didn't you like about it?

[Macavenger]

Sorry about the lurking, had a couple busy days crop up here. Should be able to post something meaningful tomorrow barring more surprises; I'm tired and going to bed right now.

[Macavenger]

I was testing a theory that you seemed a bit jumpy in your responses to stuff flying around in the random voting stage.
You just flunked the test. Badly. And get to keep the vote as a result.

Why did he flunk the test? For being jumpy? What does his reaction prove?

He was jumping way too hard at shadows in the random voting stage, and tossing way more suspicion around than events warranted. A second vote in the random voting stage is virtually meaningless. I agree that my method of putting it on was slightly suspicious; that was intentional. Questioning why I voted in that matter is perfectly legitimate. Even throwing a normal FoS in with it probably would be. Calling it "extremely bad" and throwing a "major FoS" without asking for any clarification first is someone reading a lot more into a page 2 vote than they should be. This is more likely to come from scum, because scum have more to lose from being lynched than town does.

A) Possibly. But it's far more likely to catch scum.

Why? Because eager townies are scum too?

Of course they aren't. Eager townies are more likely to respond with questions, trying to figure out the motives of odd behavior, rather than with near OMGUS levels of suspicion.

B) Reactions are what this game is all about. Scum are more likely to overreact because they have more to lose by dying than a townie does.

No, scum can simply ignore you and a townie can overreact to an acussation because duh, you're accusing of something he or she is not.. My point is that although reactions are helpful, your "test" doesnt prove who's scum or who's not.

Sure, those things could happen. It's just less likely. I never said it proved anything. I saw something on page 2 that I thought was worth looking into. I looked into it, and the reaction I got made me think it was worth looking at more.

I never said I thought Malthusis is clearly scum or called for him to be lynched. I think he's more likely to be scum than town currently, but it's not like I've made a total decision there. My request for more pressure votes was certainly genuine, but this is again aimed at seeing how he reacts. One reaction on page 2 is not worth lynching on. It is worth asking more questions about, though. If it looked like I was calling for him to be lynched, it's because I wanted to see if Malth read that into my statements and reacted to it. He didn't, which is a point in his favor. More on that later, though.

Everyone is scummy until proven otherwise. A good method is to apply some pressure and see if they provide any/more scum tells or not.

Ok, what made you decide to pressure me specifically, instead of one of the other 10 players in the game?

About reactions, it seems to me that everyone can react differently, they're helpful, I know, but they dont prove anything.

When did I ever say I thought it proved anything? The only real proof in mafia comes with death.

This is dodging the question. Tajo questioned whether this method would lead us to scum and Mac dodged with semantics. Obviously you thought it was valuable or you wouldn't have voted based on it. Also, the last sentance seems to be setting up for a "Oops, he was town" post later. This makes me more than a little suspicious, but probably not enough to hop on the bandwagon.

You either weren't reading carefully or you just made this up. The part I quoted was a reply tajo made to something Darla said, it was not a question for me. Technically, if you want to accuse someone of dodging the question, tajo never replied to that specifically; however since I was asking in order to gauge his reply and his reply to my other part didn't ring any scum alarms with me, I don't really care. Yes I voted based on it and thought it had some value. That is not the same thing as thinking it proves he's scum.

I was still being deliberately opaque at this point because I was still testing to see what kind of replies I would get from tajo and Malth. They've both pretty much reacted to everything I wanted to see though, so there's not much point in me continuing to be so obscure at this stage.

Is it not possible that malth is a nervous Vanilla?

or a Cop or something who it will harm the town to kill?

Where the heck did this italicized part come from?

I am wondering why you are so dead set and over zealously hunting SoW. To me that says a SK or a Scum, or it could just an excited townie, I dunno but I think we need to focus more on solid scumtells like Mac's semantics and dodging than we do what some otherwise townie seeming poster's reactions are to being bandwagoned.

Zealous scumhunting is a very good thing. The idea that someone scumhunting too hard is suspicious is not a good one; see Too Townie. If you think he's making flawed arguments, call him for that, but thinking he's suspicious for trying too hard is not productive.

Reactions to eing wagoned are usually a great way to tell if someone is scum, btw.

I'd just like to say that I think it's legitimate to be concerned about looking scummy as a townie. If you're a townie and you act suspiciously and get yourself lynched, then you've hurt your own team. Of course, if you're worrying about it so much that it prevents you from properly scumhunting or expressing your opinions, then it becomes a problem.

I pretty much agree with this. Town certainly doesn't want to look scummy, but that should be a lower priority for them than finding scum. For scum it's their top priority. I asked that question of Malth not because I think townies shouldn't be worried about it, but again because I wanted to see what kind of response I would get. Which leads nicely into my last point here:

I was so worried about looking scummy because at the time (bottom of pg.2) no one else had really done any scummy things. I realize now it might not have been the best move (hey, I'm no expert) but that was the best move in my mind at the time.

I have to agree with SoW and caf19 here. This doesn't look so good both because it appears that not looking scummy is more of a concern than finding scum, which isn't good, and also because you were wrong - votes at that stage of the game would be less suspicious than a "major FoS."

In fact, Malthusis has not actually done any scumhunting in this game, unless you want to count his overblown, OMGUSy accusation of me on page 2. My vote is staying on him now for this reason.

[Macavenger]

I chose you as you already had a wagon formed, making it a bit easier than trying to pull four or five people onto a different wagon when you had some scummy behavior.

Good answer. I actually found nothing particularly suspicious about your vote, but it never hurts to check.

[Macavenger]

Whats the problem with Malthusis reacting with an OMGUS? Its pretty possible that a townie could have reacted like that because again, the only thing you did was post : "Vote: Malthusis" with no explanation at all. Again, he could be scum, I know that someone will come up with : oh, god he's so defending him, but my point is that his reactions dont prove anything and make wonder abour your reasoning, Macavenger. Seriously.

Why are you so hung up on this bit about it proving anything? Honestly, it's a non-argument because you can say that about anything in mafia. If someone claims cop with a guilty, and you lynch their target and he flips scum, that doesn't prove that the claimer is actually a cop. Obviously I'm using an exaggerated case to make a point here, but the point is just as valid.

The reaction I got is

more likely

to come from scum that town. That's the entire essence of scumtells, things that are more likely to be done by scum than by town. It's a relatively small thing, but this started on page 2. There isn't much to go on on page 2. If we waited for some kind of firm "proof" to make serious accusations, you'd never get out of the random voting stage. You have to jump on anything you see then, even if it is small, or the game will never progress. If you get a good response you drop it and move on to something else. I didn't get a good response.

I bet Malthusis is asking himself the same question.

Good point.

I've explained it a couple times now, I suggest rereading my posts if you don't get it.

Also, your snide comment is a bit misplaced there tajo, since I asked that question not due to any confusion of his motives, but to make sure he was ready and willing to state the correct, pro-town reason for wagoning me there. He did.

So, conclusion, what are your reasons for voting him: reacting or not scumhunting?

If by reacting you mean overreacting, both. The lack of scumhunting is a bigger issue at this stage of the game.

Last time I checked 'Why would you vote for no reason at all?' (#48) was a pretty valid question.It was fairly obvious that I was trying to figure out why you did that.Heck, even after you said what it was I was trying to figure out why.

Sure, and if all you'd done is asked why I voted that way, you would have gotten an immediate explanation, unvote, and you'd probably never have heard about it again. Calling it extremely bad and adding a major FoS over a page 2 vote moving you to L-5 is what got you in trouble.

Technically sure, but it was a criticism of your methods, and you answered it while not really dealing with the point. More semantics.

You still can't accuse me of dodging the question, because there was no question for me to dodge. Further, I wasn't even trying to reply to it - I was asking him a question to see if he demonstrated logical consistency in his reply. The fact that the statement related to my methods actually had very little to do with it.

I basically have to answer you with semantics here, because your argument is based on semantics/misinterpretation.

I don't like Macavenger's methods, but on the other hand I really would like to see Malth post more content.

I definitely think Malthusius isn't looking good right now, between his "Major FoS" on Macavenger and the use of "I did it to create conversation", which always makes me twitch. It's worth noting that in this case he wasn't even being called out for saying it, just disagreed with. At the very least, he's very defensive. FoS: Malthusius

Please explain why you FoS'd Malthusis earlier partly based on the reaction I gained if you don't like my methods.


DBE's recent posts are also starting to ring some alarms for me. I really don't like the way she seems to be trying to undermine SoW's scumhunting efforts. Are they striking too close to home on your scumbuddies or something? There is no such thing as scumhunting too hard. If he starts fabricating cases that's obviously a scum action, but I'm not seeing any real indication of that currently. Unless you have some evidence of that, there's no reason to be suspecting him for it, unless you're trying to undermine his efforts - which no townie should be interested in doing.

I'm also seeing a pretty definite defensive link between DBE and Malthusis. DBE also seems very wishy-washy to me when talking about Malthusis right now; several posts give me a feeling of gaging how strong the wagon is and whether she should jump on it. That's scummy by itself, but a couple specific things I'm seeing look like scumbuddy interactions - something about the way she's asking him to contribute says "shape up or the bus is coming" to me. Could just be the combination of that with the other scummy stuff I'm seeing. In any case,

FoS: DarlaBlueEyes

.

[Macavenger]

tajo, you are not making a lot of sense here.

Bleh, Im going to sound like Im Mr. Defender, but why are you people disliking Darla? Anyone would like to make a case against her cause the only thing Im seeing is "oh, she's defending her scumbuddies". Why not attacking them, then?
[...]
Also Im very suspicious of the people jumping against Darla and Id like that they make a solid case against her, besides caf19.

Is the "why not attacking them" supposed to mean "Why aren't you attacking her buddies that you think she's defending?" Because if that's the case, I am. She's defending Malth and I'm attacking Malth.

Why is caf19 getting a pass on the case and I'm not? I made at least as much of a case against her as he did. In addition to defending Malth (In looking back toward the start of the game, I noticed she started this pretty strongly right when I made the first accusation against him, incidentally - it was a fair bit more than I thought at first), I also mentioned attempts to undermine SoW and being wishy-washy about jumping on malth's wagon. It's not the best case in the world, but I don't even think she should be lynched today, I'm just noting things I spotted that look suspicious.

Id like that you, Mac, post your reasons for picking specially Malthius. And if you would have picked someone else, who would have been?

I stated this at the top of page 3. I saw him as being overly jumpy at the beginning of the game. To humor you and be more specific, I believe the main thing that caught my eye was post 32 - he responded in a defensive manner to a null comment and gave it a minor FoS. I have no idea who else I might have picked, because that was the first thing I saw that was worth pursuing. At the time it would have been no one. If I'd let that pass, well, I don't know what else might have come up that seemed worthwhile, so I can't say who I'd have targeted.

Bonus Bleh. Add this to the things I dislike about Macavenger.

I was still being deliberately opaque at this point because I was still testing to see what kind of replies I would get from tajo and Malth. They've both pretty much reacted to everything I wanted to see though, so there's not much point in me continuing to be so obscure at this stage.

Again, it sincerely sounds to me like "Hey, Im scum, I found a perfect opportunity to mislynch someone since he "reacted" badly" Dude, everyone could have reacted badly to "Vote:you".

I've already explained multiple times why this is a non-argument. The "anyone could have" argument is bunk, unless you can somehow refute my assertion that it's more likely. In addition, I haven't yet called for Malth to be lynched - pressured yes, but not lynched - so there's no real basis for your mislynch comment.

Honestly, the way you're clinging desperately to this pointless argument is making me a bit suspicious. Repetition is a great propaganda tool. I feel like you could be trying to undermine my argument by keeping doubts about it fresh in everyone's mind even though you can't come up with a logical response to it.

For now, I still dont like the way Shepperd sometimes scumhunt but its just me I guess. The too townie argument kicks my ass.

I feel much the same about this as about the pointless argument above. You admit you have no rational reason to suspect SoW here, but you bring it up anyway because? Just trying to get people not to listen to him by expressing vague suspicion you can't back up, and hoping it catches on?

FoS: populartajo

[Macavenger]

Is it too hard to understand my point? I know that there are things that are more likely done by scum but even you are realizing that there isnt much to go on page 2.

That's why you go on things that are minor at the time, and see if they develop into something major. This did.

I understand why you picked Malthius, but why didnt you explain yourself when you voted for him? Why dont people here understand that its a decent reaction to suspect and to Major FOS someone that only posts "vote : Malthius"? What does a reaction prove?

Explaining why I voted him at the time would have prevented me from getting an honest response. If I say "Vote Malthusis for being jumpy" of course he's not going to jump in his response to me. Then I have no information to go on, and the game may not go anywhere. My way, I get information, one way or the other.

A Major FoS is way the hell out of place on Page 2. People were still random voting at the time. Reacting with a question and some suspicion is ok. A major FoS is just weird. The only reason I can even imagine using that so early would be if someone put someone on L-1 early for no good reason, and even then usually you'd just vote them instead.

It would have been helpful to link you to my first game in this place. Newbie 499. It would help you to understand where Im coming from and why Im so against this kind of playstyle. IH, scum in this game, was trying to set a trap, also adding that people who reacted badly enough to his trap were almost certainly scum. I argued hard against him with the same point. A reaction could prove anything but against newbies (this also seems to be the case here) we should be careful enough, since we dont know if we could catch dumb townies, almost making it a null tell.

I read over the first few pages of 499 (IH replaced out pretty early). I really don't see how it's similar. If you're referring to him calling you out for overreacting early on, well guess what, you overreacted, he didn't do anything to induce that reaction, and another town member called you on it too. If you're referring to the "I saw a huge scumtell" schtick, I still don't see how that's related. That's a totally open ended statement that could get anyone to chew on it, and the results of it would be very open to interpretation. Mine is a binary test of a certain player I saw something from, with relatively clearly defined results. I also don't see anywhere in that game where you argued against IH in anything remotely resembling the manner you're doing here.

Do you agree or disagree that Malthusis' actions independent of my test have been scummy?

Im talking about some other players, Mac. They know who they are and Im still waiting. The fact that I didnt include you is most due to the fact that I simply dont like you. Caf made a good post about her, BTW, hence the free pass.

Giving caf a pass was reasonable. Thanks for admitting to using an arbitrary double standard in my case.

Because its definetely better to be quiet about my suspicions or things I dont like, Yeah sure.

If you have something rational to back them up, by all means let us know. That's what I did with DBE. Making baseless claims doesn't help the town, though. If you have nothing specific, it looks like you're trying to push a negative impression over a helpful player to undermine his efforts, which can only help scum.

Im not defending anyone.

Everyone is suspicious to me.

(Italics added)
Why do you feel the need to claim you aren't defending Darla and Malthusis when you very blatantly are?

[Macavenger]

goborage you seem very quiet in this game right now, especially compared to your activity in your other games. Why don't you tell us what you think of each player here right now?

[Macavenger]

Bah leave me a lone. Do you seriously meta everyone for activity or am I special? I signed up for too many games and I like some more than others.

I meta anyone that seems to be lurkish for activity, you're not special in that respect.

Your answer to my question is somewhat underwhelming.

[Macavenger]

Why is a Major FoS hell out of place on Page 2 and not a Vote:Malthius?

Because votes fly freely in the first couple pages for reasons that are specious at best. In general they mean almost nothing. You should be expecting to get a random vote or two that early. There were a few other votes on page 2 with no game relevant reason this game. Sure, I didn't accompany mine with a joke reason, and I expected him to ask about that. Asking about it is fine. A Major FoS, however, is something you don't see on page 2, and implies very serious suspicions about a person.

Several other people posted between my vote and Malthusis' reply to it. None of them found it worth commenting on at the time. It's really not that out of place.

If you read 100 games, you'd probably find several hundred page 2 votes, probably even quite a few that didn't have any reasoning at all attached. I bet you'd only find 1 or 2 Major FoS's.

Macavenger, we are never going to stop arguing. I simply dont buy your trap excuse, independant of your or Malthius allignement.

No, we will pretty soon, because I'm going to quit bothering to reply pretty soon unless you bring up some new arguments that I haven't already snapped in half.

Just tell me one more thing, what would happen if we lynch him and he comes up town?

Sucks for town that we got a townie who decided to act suspicious and then give up.

It's not going to cause me to think my method is invalid, if that's what you're asking. Malth has done too much other scummy stuff this game to make me give up on it.

It was a trap. IH even said it was a trap. It's totally related with the only exception that no one felt in it. Later he explained that people reacting bad enough were possibly scum. My point is that he's using the same weak argument (null reactions) as a way to catch scum.

It's not similar at all. His trap was completely open ended, and made in a way he could do almost anything with it. He hadn't seen anything, he wasn't targeting anyone, he just wanted someone to call scummy. The way he talks about his trap, he could have called almost any reaction at all to it scummy. "Gee I wonder what that big scumtell he's talking about was?" "Oh, guilty conscience there, obvscum." Anyone could mention him saying that in some kind of random analysis or something, and he had it setup so he could call almost any reaction to it scummy.

Compare with what I did. I saw a specific, possibly scummy reaction from Malthusis (jumping at shadows in random stage). I take a normal action in that stage of the game (vote) and target him with it in a slightly unusual way. This gives him a chance to either a) jump hard and confirm my suspicions, or b) not overreact and tell me I was just imagining things. This is a very specific, binary test of one player, trying to see if something I already think I see has merit or not. That's totally different than throwing out a statement that many people will be curious about and being able to label almost any reaction to it scummy. Honestly, I think "test" is a far better term for what I did there than "trap," although I concede the difference is probably mostly aesthetic.

IH : ..... I also consider the "I found a big scumtell" tactic a little bit strange because it is just trying to confuse town. Maybe, looking for someone inexperienced, a possible mistake and the start of a "distractive" bandwagon.

What does it differentiate from IC scum trying to get suspicious reactions (especially from newbie townies) so that he can develop his strategy from them?

Ok, I didn't read it quite carefully enough to find those. I still find that nowhere near the vehemence with which you are arguing against me, though.

You make a good point here. But don't you think Shepherd's trifecta is way too much?

No. You, DBE, and Malth have tangible connections to each other. DBE and Malth are both scummy independent of those connections. It's not at all unreasonable for this stage of the game. It probably isn't entirely correct - few cases constructed this early ever are - but I agree that it's the best we have to go on currently, and has no clear flaws.

Why do you feel the need to claim you aren't defending Darla and Malthusis when you very blatantly are?

Becuase Im not. My siding with Malthius was totally due to the fact of my disliking of your trap. For Darla, I dont like the way some people are jumping in her bandwagon becuase I sincerely think she's a newbie having a hard time defending herself.

So, saying we shouldn't be attacking certain people, or that certain attacks on them are bad, is different from defending them how? You kind of have a point with Malth, as that is a case of one specific thing directed at him your'e attacking. With Darla though, I mean you say right there you think she's a newbie having a hard time defending herself, so you're... helping her defend herself. You're telling people we're not attacking her for good reasons and trying to get us to stop. That's defending.

Hey Mac, since I made a list how about you show us yours?

Sure.

• Amor: mildly suspicious of his weird semantics argument on me, but he's not trying to push it anymore it seems. Most actions seem vaguely townish. Pretty neutral read.
  
• Riceballtail: Would like to see a bit more posting, but not seeing anything scummy. Neutral, leaning town.
  
• caf19: Looks to be honest scumhunting. Probable town.
  
• Coheed: Lurkish. Not much to go on. Neutral.
  
• DBE: Defends lots of people, vote hops quite a bit, opinion seems to shift with the popular wind, very wishy washy and noncommittal about the Malthusis wagon. Probable scum.
  
• Greasy Spot: Lurker. Very little to go on. Said LA until 30th, but that was what 4 days ago? Where did you go?
  
• Malthusis: I've talked about him a lot, probable scum.
  
• populartajo: Defensive of Malth/DBE, crazy repetition of poor arguments against my scumhunting techinque, also baseless statements about SoW, could be trying to push a false impression over the town on scumhunters striking too close to home. Denial of defensiveness worrisome. Possible scum, but I could see him being a misguided townie.
  
• SoW: Huge amount of effort put into scumhunting, nothing so far to suggest any of it is less than honest. Probable town.
  
• Travis: Lurker. Not much to go on, but my gut says probably a bored townie. Definitely worth watching and pressuring though.
  
• goborage: Clearly not putting much effort in. Semi-lurker. Uncooperative and antagonistic. Defending DBE. Definitely needs to be paying more attention to this game. Possible scum.

[Macavenger]

Checking in. Not much to add at the moment, waiting on Smoke.

[Macavenger]

Ok, I need to inject a bit of unfortunate reality here.

At this time, we need to be piling more votes on OG Smokedank. Deadline is getting close, and unless we hear a very compelling defense from her soon, she needs to be today's lynch. Deadline rules in this game do not give us a reduced lynching requirement at deadline, so we need to get 7 votes on someone before then. No-lynching Day 1 is almost always bad, and particularly so in this game, as we really need to find out an alignment to help sort out who the scum are.

This means we have about 5 days to get 3 more votes on Smoke. Since we don't even know if she's going to have time to mount a significant defense, we need to get at least 1 or 2 of those in place now - trying to pile on 3 at the last minute is not something I want to risk. I don't want to lynch Smoke without giving her more of a chance to talk, but we may have no choice here.

We should also start talking now about who else we might want to go for in the event that Smoke comes up with some really compelling reason not to lynch her. If that's the case, we're pretty much going to have to try to assemble a speed wagon of 7 votes on someone else, and the only real way we're going to be able to do that is if we know ahead of time where it's going. This difficulty of shifting the wagon at this point is the reason we need to be voting up Smoke now, and means we really shouldn't be trying to shift it unless she has an extremely compelling reason to believe she's town.

For now stating who you'd be willing to lynch other than Smoke if it comes to that is probably good. If we do end up needing to shift the wagon, I'd probably be willing to go for DBE or goborage. The way DBE has been waffling about the Malthusis wagon is fairly scummy independent of his alignment as well as the defending thing, and I don't like goborage's lack of effort or his trying to define when is and is not good times to defend someone; seems pretty self serving to me.

Mod:

At what time on May 12th will deadline fall?

[Macavenger]

Noon-early afternoonish, Amor.

[Macavenger]

OG Smokedank is at L-1 by my count. No one should be hammering before about May 11, unless we get significant dialogue from her first. She needs to have as much time to talk as we can give her without being forced into a deadline no-lynch.

Mac, have you done this before? Can you link me to some games where you've used this "reaction" test at the beginning of a game?

No. This is only the third game I joined on this site, up to 5 total counting two I've joined since then. I haven't exactly had a lot of opportunities, especially since three of the games I either replaced into or didn't have a typical random voting phase. It's also far from a tactic I would use every game in any case; it's something I'd only use when I already thought a player was being too jumpy.

Snapped in half? Where?

Any number of my replies where I explain why my technique is valid, that you've never given any reason for being false?

So lets lynch him and lets lynch his defenders. Right. Do you suspect anyone else than the possible trifecta? Have you at least cared to meta Malthusis?

I don't intend to lynch anyone else purely for defending Malthusis. Honestly you're about the only one that comes close to that being a full case on anyway. Obviously if OG comes up town, I'll have to reevaluate a few things. Outside the trifecta, I'm suspicious of goborage -

actually I think he's more likely to be scum than you are right now

(see below). Amor and Travis are also on my radar, but much lower for the time being. DBE will probably be my top suspect at the beginning of the day tomorrow regardless of OG's alignment - the way she's been vote hopping looking for a wagon, and incredibly wishy washy about the OG wagon itself earlier are quite scummy regardless of how that role turns out.

What does it differentiate from IC scum trying to get suspicious reactions (especially from newbie townies) so that he can develop his strategy from them?

(Italics original) Because I had already seen a suspicious reaction this game. I was giving that behavior a chance to confirm or deny itself. IH was just flat fishing for something to work with.

About the vehemence, I think its pretty obvious. Being that my first game, I had no experience regarding this "tests".

Also, I didnt know the allignment of IH.

(Italics mine) This strongly implies populartajo knows my alignment this game.

HoS: populartajo

Im in some games with gaborage, specially War in Heaven, where I noticed his massive participation in that game and not here. Hence the suspicion. Null tell after his answer where he explained that he liked more some games than others.

That doesn't make it a null tell. It could easily be an excuse he made up. Radically different posting patterns in different games is scummy in the less active ones, generally speaking. Behind the fact that he's not posting much, goborage being generally very unhelpful in this game contributes to that line of suspicion.

I do not like you 100% standard that you expect Mac to answer too.

I never asked one. What bothers me is that he seems to think is 100% accurate

This is bullshit. Your main argument against my method the entire game has been that "it doesn't prove anything." Well no shit, I've already gone over how nothing "proves" anything in this game (except death), but that certain things are more likely to come from scum, and hence scumtells. Your response has always been more "that doesn't prove anything." So yes, you are essentially demanding 100% proof from me. As to the other side of that, taking a quick skim through my posts this game, I found at least 3 cases where I specifically state that I don't think my test is 100% accurate, or that I'm not entirely sure Malthusis is scum because of it, mostly in direct reply to you. You're either trying to twist my words here or horribly exaggerating statements for no good reason I can see.

Do me a favour. I want every people voting for Malthusis/ OG Smokedank the exact reason why are you voting for him. Im not saying dont lynch him cuz Im sure some random dude , cough Shepherd, will point this out.
Im just asking this, since I feel its possible that we could need this information later.

There is no single exact reason, so I'll give you an overview of my case.

• Overly jumpy/aggressive reactions early.
  
• No scumhunting.
  
• Concern with not appearing scummy over finding scum.
  
• Parroting others; relying on other people's defenses rather than making his own.
  
• Abandoning the game when the pressure went on
  while continuing to post elsewhere on the site
  . In fact, he's signed up for and posted in a new game since ditching this one. OG is also quite active in her other game, despite protesting that she hasn't had time to read this one. Deliberate lurking/abandonment by multiple players of the same role is a high chance fo scum.

[Macavenger]

Going back through my posts, I noticed something that hasn't been answered yet:

I don't like Macavenger's methods, but on the other hand I really would like to see Malth post more content.

I definitely think Malthusius isn't looking good right now, between his "Major FoS" on Macavenger and the use of "I did it to create conversation", which always makes me twitch. It's worth noting that in this case he wasn't even being called out for saying it, just disagreed with. At the very least, he's very defensive. FoS: Malthusius

Please explain why you FoS'd Malthusis earlier partly based on the reaction I gained if you don't like my methods.

Still waiting for your explanation here, Amor.

Also, I really don't think I spotlighted this point heavily enough in my last post:

About the vehemence, I think its pretty obvious. Being that my first game, I had no experience regarding this "tests".

Also, I didnt know the allignment of IH.

(Italics mine) This strongly implies populartajo knows my alignment this game.

HoS: populartajo

populartajo appears to be explaining why he's arguing against my point more vehemently this game, by pointing out differences. He says it was his first game and he had less experience with subtle methods, which is fair. He then comments that he didn't know IH's alignment that game. Since he's pointing out reasons (i.e. differences) that cause him to react differently, this implies he

does

know my alignment in this game, which is only possible if he's scum.

You better have a damn good explanation for this, tajo.

[Macavenger]

We do unfortunately pretty much have to lynch Smoke at this point. I'd love more time to discuss it, but we just don't have it.

I have limited access today, so I don't have time to respond to Darla and tajo right now. I'll be happy to on Day 2 though.

Anyone who checks the thread at this point should be voting Smoke unless you're sure you'll be back before deadline hits. If you will be, leaving it open for more discussion is good, but we really do need to get a lynch in.

[Macavenger]

I'm not going to bother arguing with populartajo about my scumhunting anymore; Malthusis/OG's alignment should clear up any remaining questions about that.

Vote: DBE

Mostly per the case laid out yesterday. DBE didn't do any noticeable scumhunting, defended Mal (and several others, but that could just be cover), was very noncommittal about Mal, vote hopped, and tended to shift her opinions and defenses depending on town opinion a lot.

More analysis coming later, I just replaced into a 24 page game and need to start reading.

[Macavenger]

Lucky Malthius was scum, Mac. I would have defintely pushed your lynch today if Malthius had come up town.

Wouldn't have blamed you for pushing in that case, though I certainly would have fought back.

I guess I was somehow traumatized with my first game and that helped to heat the argument. However, that doesnt mean you're going to be that lucky everytime. Just to finish this argument, do you sincerely think Malthius was lynched for your famous reaction?

Certainly not entirely, no. It was useful in focusing attention on him to drag out the other scumtells. I lynched him for a combination of all of them.

I also maintain it wasn't luck. Now that you know he's scum, maybe you can accept that I really was doing what I said, testing a reaction that I already thought was a bit suspect in an unorthodox way? I may not use this again for quite some time; it all depends on what I see early.

Whats a martyr, BTW?

Most likely a Doc-type role, that can protect someone, but rather than stopping the kill entirely, dies in their place if the person they're protecting is targeted. The more common name for it would be bodyguard. If I'm correct in thinking that, this makes trying to get any information out of the night kill even more useless than normal, because caf19 may not have been the intended target.

[Macavenger]

ok, i've been reading through things and i think:
Shepherd_of_Wolves: is a little too eager to attack and lynch people. And posts

really

long posts that you have to read carefully to get.
DarlaBlueEyes: is alot like i was my first game(on another forum), trying to defend everyone, but not realizing that it looks scummy.
Riceballtail: has some good points, when they actually post.
Macavenger: Reading through his posts(which takes a while) I'm not really sure which side he's for. I think i'll read through them again.

That's it for now.....i'll post more on the others later. I have to leave for school in a couple of minutes

SoW: What gives you the impression that he's eager to lynch people? Why is attacking people he finds suspicious bad? Is posting really long posts bad?

DBE: What do you think of DBE's other scummy actions? The defensiveness could be just a newb tell, sure, but a lot of the other scum tells are more likely to be accurate if she doesn't know they're tells.

Me: What in my posts makes you think I could be scum? Also, if you don't like reading long posts, I recommend avoiding games with me in them.

Full analysis of the wagon, observations, and more explicit case on DBE should be coming later today sometime.

[Macavenger]

SoW: What gives you the impression that he's eager to lynch people? Why is attacking people he finds suspicious bad? Is posting really long posts bad?

Well it seems to me that he is attacking everyone and isn't really sticking to one person. And long posts aren't bad, it's just trying to read through them when you replace that makes them bad.

Why does attacking lots of people make him eager for a lynch? Do you think he's inconsistent, or is it possible that his suspicions were changed by new information?

Me: What in my posts makes you think I could be scum? Also, if you don't like reading long posts, I recommend avoiding games with me in them.

I didn't say that i thought you were scum, i said that i'm not sure which way you go for. There's just something that, when i was reading your posts the first time, i got a bad feeling about.(

I know

this game isn't about feeling, it's supposed to be about logic, sorry)

But saying that you're unsure of my alignment implies you see something in my posts that makes you think I could be scum. What is it?

[Macavenger]

Vote: popular

I'm going to go with what I perceive as common sense (chances are scum wouldn't want to vote for their buddy). Of the two folks who didn't vote for malth, I'd say popular is the more suspicious of the two. popular's post after the lynch and his vote for DBE seem like a buddying attempt (to town and to Mac), especially after his determined and prolonged attack on Mac.

I endorse this product or service.

Wouldnt Shepherd the scumhunter vote for Darla? Why does he need a reread? Why dont I like this guy?

No idea why you don't like him, really. I don't see his not voting as out of character; he was quite deliberate with his vote yesterday too.

Also, his reaction tester doesnt work. But Im going to stop arguing since Mac says he isnt going to use it anymore, right?

Well, not as such, no. However, given that it no longer has any real relevance to this game, I'd suggest Mafia Discussion would be the correct forum to talk about it in. Preferably after this game is over, as without being able to link to the context it's used in would make discussing it difficult. The context is very important, and certainly makes it something I won't use regularly.

Anyway, now that I'm caught up in my new replacement game and elsewhere, some thoughts about how the end of yesterday.

Off the wagon:

Greasy Spot's replacement request looks quite genuine, so I'm not going to hold being off the wagon against him. Overall, no read due to lack of content. Would like to see participation today.

Amor being off the wagon is a little fishy, since he talked a good line about needing a lynch and Og being better than no lynch, but vanished a couple days before deadline and left his vote on DBE. Can't help but see this as a bit scummy. Still not at the top of my list, but on the scummy side of neutral.

Travis flaked, so I can't really hold being off the wagon against Xofelf. Again, still not enough content here to make much of a decision yet.

populartajo being off the wagon reinforces the idea that he could be scum. I put forth most of my reasoning for this yesterday, I think. Good bandwagon target for today. I may move my vote here from DBE after thinking about it more.

Couple things on the wagon that caught my attention:

Despite the possibility of bussing, I consider DBE's vote a mild town tell. Mild because if scum, she could still hope he wasn't hammered, and probably knew I'd be jumping all over her today if a lack of her vote caused a no lynch. It certainly doesn't cancel out her other scumtells, but is a point in her favor worth considering.

goborage voting with reasoning seems townlike, as does his vote and reasoning for populartajo today. Still not ruling out the possibility he could be scum, but he's moving back towards neutral. Would still like to see better participation today.

Coheed making a point of voting for OG when I pointed out how we needed to vote is a bit odd, considering he was already voting her. Could be scum making a point of being seen on his buddy's wagon. This is a relatively small thing, but combined with how he lurked through most of Day 1, I think Coheed is worth keeping a close eye on.

[Macavenger]

Mac, Im asking you the same question I asked to Gobororage. Do you sincerely think that there isnt a scum (or maybe both) in Malthius wagon?

Obviously not, since I'm voting Darla right now. There's a good chance at least one scum was also off the wagon, though.

And I was off the wagon for many reasons. I guess it should be obvious. I think the principal reason is that I was still thinking that Mac could be scum (use of unorthodox methods) and therefore Mal and Darla would be innocent (just for the fact that Mac could be scum and that Ive seen many newbies acting scummy). Part of my siding with them all D1 is exactly all due to this. Please, notice how as the game progresses the discussion shifts to only a dislike of Mac's logic and that Mal could be scum. If you understand my reasoning then you would understand why I didnt vote.

But, you said yesterday you agreed Malthusis was scummy independent of my test. Doesn't that make him better than a no lynch? Why would a no lynch have been better than a Malthusis lynch?

I do use logic and arguments. I was the only one that took the opposite side all D1 and I did it with arguments. Im fine with that because I feel my resoning is valid. Today is diiferent, what do you want me to do? Still defend Darla? Obv not. Malthius coming up scum pretty much confirms her as scumpartner. Do you want arguments? Bleh, go to the little menu down the page, click to watch only Darla's posts all D1 and realize the evolution of his posts,

but knowing Mal was a werewolf

. I thought a scumhunter like you would already have noticed that.

Why does Malthusis alignment confirm Darla's? Why was she newbie yesterday, but scum today? Have you never mistakenly defended a scum as town?

And if others agree with my labels, then there must be something. Deal with them, I dont control their postings.

Many people have agreed with bad ideas that were repeated over and over throughout history. The fact is that repeating something over and over is a great way to paint a false impression in peoples' minds. It's a common propaganda technique, and is basically what you're doing here. You've never cited a good reason for being suspicious of Shepherd that I've seen, you just keep saying over and over that you don't like him.

Unvote; Fos: populartajo, DarlaBlueEyes

Want more answers from tajo before I decide which wagon is better today at this point.

[Macavenger]

Limited access this weekend, my have time to get a post up in this game but don't count on anything until Monday.

[Macavenger]

No one hammer DBE. It's almost 2 weeks to deadline, we've got lots of time for discussion. Slow down, think about this a bit.

DBE was very scummy yesterday, but I'm starting to pick up signs/meta that she may be town. I'm opposed to killing her right now.

xofelf, please answer the questions I posted for you last page:

SoW: What gives you the impression that he's eager to lynch people? Why is attacking people he finds suspicious bad? Is posting really long posts bad?

Well it seems to me that he is attacking everyone and isn't really sticking to one person. And long posts aren't bad, it's just trying to read through them when you replace that makes them bad.

Why does attacking lots of people make him eager for a lynch? Do you think he's inconsistent, or is it possible that his suspicions were changed by new information?

Me: What in my posts makes you think I could be scum? Also, if you don't like reading long posts, I recommend avoiding games with me in them.

I didn't say that i thought you were scum, i said that i'm not sure which way you go for. There's just something that, when i was reading your posts the first time, i got a bad feeling about.(

I know

this game isn't about feeling, it's supposed to be about logic, sorry)

But saying that you're unsure of my alignment implies you see something in my posts that makes you think I could be scum. What is it?

[Macavenger]

DBE, don't claim unless more people start voting you again.

I am now opposed to lynching DBE today. Meta reasons as well as the actions of others in the game lead me to believe her behavior really is just clueless, not scum-motivated.

What little I've seen of xofelf so far I do not like at all. She hasn't posted very much content, and what few conclusions she has posted, she's immediately backed down from when challenged. She's made very vague intimations about myself and Shepherd, and apparently can't support them at all. Combined with Travis doing nothing useful before flaking yesterday, I find a good chance that we've got a scum here.

FoS: xofelf

populartajo is still likely to be scum I think. As for the big post about DBE and Malthusis interactions, yes, I saw all that yesterday; that's why I came out and voted for DBE immediately today. Unfortunately your flip based on malthusis alignment still makes no sense, and just looks like bandwagoning now. Your attack on me yesterday could have been scum trying to undermine the weakest portion of the case on his buddy, and now seeing that it failed you're trying to do damage control.

DBE could still be scum, but it third for me now, and there are probably only 2 left to find.

Amor and goborage's recent actions both point toward likely being town, IMO.

[Macavenger]

K, can townies stop doing really scummy stuff please? tajo, DBE, GS, and xofelf can't all be scum.

Meta Greasy. Voting for bad and unexplained reasons is very common for him. He's probably not scum. Keep an eye on yes, lynch no.

xofelf needs to start making serious contributions like now. Explain your DBE vote in more detail, tell us who you think is scum, and why. Be specific.

Vote: xofelf

until I see something that doesn't look scummy from you.

[Macavenger]

We've got about 5 or 6 days until deadline, I believe. Need to start settling in on a lynch. I'm happy with populartajo or xofelf at the moment.

DBE, please don't claim. There's no reason at this point - you're in no real danger of a lynch for the moment. Doing so now can only help the wolves, unless you've got some kind of earthshaking investigation results to claim. Even if you're just a townie, claiming that lets the wolves know to look elsewhere for power roles.

Sheperd - I disagree that we should be lynching Greasy just because he's not contributing currently. We have better cases of scummy interactions between other people to go off of currently. Greasy would be a decent lynch if we didn't have any other good prospects, but we do, so let's just not for today.

[Macavenger]

I still dont get why I am a fine lynch, Mac.

Vehemently attacking the initial bit of my case on Malthusis could easily have been defending a scumbuddy. Extremely abrupt turnaround and wagon push on DBE today, for questionable reasons. Continually bringing up suspicions about SoW mainly, and a couple other things, and utterly failing to support them when challenged. In general, a lot of stuff that looks scummy, or otherwise would be good tactics for scum with Malthusis.

I have explained with arguments why I think DBE is the scummiest player right now. Does anyone disagree with my big post of her?

I mostly agree, but you made that argument very suddenly, and it's mostly a rehash of stuff that's already been said. She's still third for me right now.

I mean, am I the only one thinking that DBE makes sense as scum knowing that Malthusis was a werewolf?

No.

Mac can you point out you reasons for changing your view of her?

Meta suggesting that some of the sill stuff she's done is actually newbie, not scum, despite how it looks, dropped her a bit. Xofelf coming in here waving a big neon sign "Look I'm scum." My view really hasn't changed all that far, just you and xofelf look relatively scummier than DBE right now.

In other thoughts, assuming there are three werewolves, right now Im pretty sure there was one scum in the wagon (both could have been there, though).

Justify this.

I agree too that we shouldnt let Greasy stay out of the hook just because hes like that in his other games.

Not let off the hook, but he's a bad lynch for today. He's a very distant fourth in scumminess right now.

With deadline coming up, we need to start finishing off one of these wagons. xofelf is the largest, and the one I prefer. I would be willing to vote populartajo or, reluctantly, DBE if absolutely required to get a lynch in before deadline.

[Macavenger]

xofelf needs to post something meaningful and probably claim very quickly here if she wants a chance at avoiding the noose today. We've got enough psuedovotes now to kill her, and are somewhat approaching the point of no return. Need more time to do some reading and analysis on tajo's last post before I comment on that.

[Macavenger]

Not willing to lynch Greasy tomorrow regardless of xofelf's alignment without better evidence. I agree his play sucks, but I really don't think he's scum. Mislynching 2 townies puts us in LyLo under any normal setup assumptions, which isn't something we want to do if we can at all avoid it, and tajo and DBE are both better prospects than Greasy, IMO.

I'm starting to waver on whether tajo or DBE is really a better prospect. If xofelf does come up town, they could still both be scum. I agree that Coheed's play has been pretty opportunistic, and is also worth looking into if xofelf is town. Not so much if xofelf is scum - bussing 2 buddies as he would have in that case would be a bit extreme.

[Macavenger]

Everything except that unvote/vote xofelf thing definitely points to guilty on DBE, now that we know he was a cop (at least, I think we're all assuming that's what wolfhunter means, seems likely - vig is the only other possibility I think, but rereading the flavor the clicking does sound more like cop). The only other possibility is an innocent on someone that he absolutely did not crumb in any way at all. The bit about "I find these suspicions confirmable" is a strong pointer to guilty on DBE, IMO.

Sigh, should have stuck to DBE yesterday, I've gotta stop letting myself get distracted by scummy replacements. This has happened in like 3 games now. :/ My bad guys.

Vote: DBE

[Macavenger]

We pretty much can't let Darla live at this point, because Miller is way too good of a scum claim -

especially

when it's claimed in response to a probable guilty investigation from a cop. Darla's play hasn't been anywhere near what a Miller should be playing either. Miller's should be trying to look extremely pro-town to a) dodge investigations and b) draw the nightkill.

The flavor in the Riceballtail scene pretty clearly says "cop" to me. The gun is the only thing that points towards vig, but cops also carry guns. The leaning against the wall, the clicks, and the reference to the sensor all point towards investigation.

Basically, we have a dead cop who's play is indicative of a guilty on DBE. I also agree that a rolename of just "Miller" or "Village Miller" doesn't fit with this game. We should be lynching DBE.

[Macavenger]

Interesting, that's a well hidden link.

Anyway, his play reads as "investigated DBE; guilty" to me.

[Macavenger]

Good question, tajo. I didn't expect to be alive today, or Day 2 for that matter. I don't think analyzing the NKs is going to get us very far though. Riceballtail going down last night could be interpreted as evidence that DBE is scum - I could see them reading him as a cop if DBE actually is scum, and killing him because of that. Lacking knowledge of who's scum prevents that kind of read, I think. That's a really weak argument though, and nothing I'd ever mention if you hadn't specifically asked for my thinking in this direction. Otherwise, I can't really explain it. Scum could be just killing randomly to keep us guessing, for all I know.

[Macavenger]

Mac, what do you think of Gobo?

I could go either way on Gobo right now. He was pretty blatantly unhelpful for a lot of D1, and he's still not being extremely helpful, though he has made a few good points recently if you dig through his posts for them. Biggest concern would be a tendency to go along with cases and not ask many questions himself right now.

Gobo, Riceballtail came out hard and fast against DBE D2 and continued to push on DBE basically all day. Even while changing his vote to help lynch xofelf, he was still putting out reminders of how scummy DBE was. The biggest indicator for me is his line about his suspicions from yesterday, and how he found those suspicions

confirmable

. Odd choice of words, but seems to indicate he had specific knowledge, which in light of his role reveal would imply a guilty investigation.

Of course if you buy the miller claim, this is fairly meaningless. For anyone who hasn't seen it, Miller is a relatively common role; Darla is at least not making that bit up. It's also an extremely convenient scum fakeclaim though, since it nicely explains any investigations on them. The fact that she claimed it in response to suggestions that she may have been investigated as guilty makes it that much more suspicious. And while I still dislike the way tajo flipped his opinion between D1 and D2, he's right that her play fits very much with scumbuddy of Malthusis.

I still suspect we're barking up the wrong tree with Greasy, and I'm not going to vote to help lynch him, though I'm not really going to actively campaign against it, either - I can't argue that he's been relatively anti-town; that's just so normal of him from what I've seen that I don't want to lynch him for it in the presence of better suspects. Right now my guess would be the scum is some combination of DBE, tajo, gobo, and coheed, in no particular order.

[Macavenger]

I really don't think RBT had any info at all.

Maybe, maybe not, but DBE is plenty scummy with or without a guilty investigation. Also, again, it's the "I find this confirmable" that really leads me to think in the direction of a guilty.

@Mac - So your pro-town list is Wolves, Amor and GS? I guess I can see Wolves but why Amor and GS?[/quote]
Amor because he's done next to nothing that jumped out and said scummy to me - closest thing would probably be his dodging/semantics accusation against me D1, but that was fairly minor and he dropped it after I refuted it.

Greasy isn't really on my town list per se. The issue is that he's being attacked for things that are classic strong scum tells, but aren't realy scumtells for Greasy, because he does them all the time as town also. So while they are anti-town actions and he really needs to work on his playstyle, they aren't indicative of alignment in his case. My read on him is basically null, and since I do have scum readings on other people, he's not good lynch material.

Speaking of people I have scum reads on, I did some rereading and poking around at stuff here. At this point, I'm going to propose that the remaining scum are DBE and goborage.

Bulk of the case on DBE has been laid out a lot, I don't feel the need to go over it again.

Looking at goborage:
Day 1 he was pretty useless for the most part. Had to be prodded hard by multiple players to get him to do something as basic as laying out what he thought about people, and even then he was extremely reluctant and gave very little information - basically giving everyone a neutral read. Discusses theory a bit, but makes little effort to actually find scum. Hops on the Malth/OG wagon when I started pushing for a lynch before deadline.

Day 2 makes the WIFOM argument that scum would be off Malth's wagon to vote for populartajo. Very convenient stance to take if both he and buddy DBE got on that wagon to be visible helping lynch scum. He basically lurks through all of Day 2, making a total of 6 very short, noninformative posts, and carefully avoids saying anything about the two main wagons of the day, DBE and xofelf. While his reasons for attacking tajo early D2 are not entirely bad, I don't like the WIFOM, or the fact that he then just sat his vote there the rest of the day without commenting on anything else particularly. He also says "lynching [Greasy] for being anti-town is as good a reason as any," making the implication that Greasy is a good lynch for anti-town behavior even if he's not scum. This argument always makes me twitch.

Today, he's posted a bit more, but has done basically nothing except defend DBE and attack Greasy.

Basically he's been closemouthed, posting as little information as possible, and has made no real effort to figure out who the scum are, just gone along with a few cases where it was convenient, and ignored the rest of the game.

Now, let's look at connections:

Malth/gobo connections are limited at best.
Malth/DBE connections are well documented.
Gobo/DBE connections:
Early D1, gobo tells DBE he doesn't like how she's defending everyone, and suggests she stop. She does so immediately. Later says her defending is a null tell, and criticizes people FoSing her for it.
D2 he didn't say much of anything, about anyone, but supports a GS or tajo lynch over DBE.
Today he's still trying to keep DBE out of the noose, attacking the idea that she might have been investigated, and pointing to other players as scummier.

The connections coming from DBE are possibly more interesting.
DBE doesn't talk about gobo Day 1. At all. She replies to a post of his a couple times, but never says anything about him.
Day 2 She still mentions him only once, putting him as strongly town on her list of everyone, claiming he'd been legitimately scumhunting and thought about the OG lynch. Except he hasn't done any scumhunting, at all.
She's mentioned gobo a couple times today, all saying he seems very town, and again claiming that he's logical/scumhunting, which is very off.

Right now I'm seeing DBE and goborage as both individually quite scummy and fairly strongly linked to each other. I'm happy lynching either at this point. Vote stays on DBE for now since she already has a wagon.

Still mildly suspicious of tajo for his flipflop/aggressive attacking my case D1, and coheed for lurking/wagoning. Those are both starting to look more and more like long shots though.

[Macavenger]

Your points against me are not "individually scummy", but are associative with DBE. You haven't proved that I am scummy independent of her. Why?

Looking at goborage:
Day 1 he was pretty useless for the most part. Had to be prodded hard by multiple players to get him to do something as basic as laying out what he thought about people, and even then he was extremely reluctant and gave very little information - basically giving everyone a neutral read. Discusses theory a bit, but makes little effort to actually find scum. Hops on the Malth/OG wagon when I started pushing for a lynch before deadline.

Day 2 makes the WIFOM argument that scum would be off Malth's wagon to vote for populartajo. Very convenient stance to take if both he and buddy DBE got on that wagon to be visible helping lynch scum. He basically lurks through all of Day 2, making a total of 6 very short, noninformative posts, and carefully avoids saying anything about the two main wagons of the day, DBE and xofelf. While his reasons for attacking tajo early D2 are not entirely bad, I don't like the WIFOM, or the fact that he then just sat his vote there the rest of the day without commenting on anything else particularly. He also says "lynching [Greasy] for being anti-town is as good a reason as any," making the implication that Greasy is a good lynch for anti-town behavior even if he's not scum. This argument always makes me twitch.

Today, he's posted a bit more, but has done basically nothing except defend DBE and attack Greasy.

Basically he's been closemouthed, posting as little information as possible, and has made no real effort to figure out who the scum are, just gone along with a few cases where it was convenient, and ignored the rest of the game.

This was the part where you're individually scummy. You're not asking questions or actively trying to figure out who the scum are, you're jsut hopping on other cases and running with it. Your play is very "yeah, me too." Town had to lean on you hard Day 1 to get you to post the most basic information of substance, and even then you still gave us almost nothing.

Basically he's been closemouthed, posting as little information as possible, and has made no real effort to figure out who the scum are, just gone along with a few cases where it was convenient, and ignored the rest of the game.

This right here can be used to describe GS, coheed, and possibly Amor. My question is why am I being focused on? Why haven't you asked any GS, Coheed, or Amor any questions? The only difference I can see between my play and the others is that I've been linked to DBE.

It tends to describe Greasy, but he has had limited access and this behavior isn't outside the normal range for him. (You really need to work on your playstyle btw, Greasy.)
It somewhat describes coheed, but he's been on vacation a lot, and has been good about telling us. He has also at least posted brief comments on major wagons without having the entire town yell at him, which is something you can't really say. I'd kinda rather he just got replaced being on vacation this much, but there's nothing I can do about that.
It doesn't describe Amor at all. What kind of pathetic joke is that? Trying to rope Amor in for being closemouthed and case hopping strikes me as extremely desperate.

Saying that a statement of why you're scummy could maybe apply to others is a rather uninspiring defense.

Atm I'm thinking your "scum-hunting" is rather selective. If you're using meta to defend GS (which isn't a great idea imo) you should be doing for me as well. There's a lull in almost all my games for the last month and a half or so due to school/work.

I don't care how busy you are, you can manage more than "top voted: slightly scum, everyone else neutral" or six lines of text with no substantial contribution in an entire game day. If you can't, then get yourself replaced.

[Macavenger]

That was not, in fact, a hammer, DBE. You're at L-1.

Agree with Amor on Coheed's post. Coheed, you basically just summarized the major arguments of the day and said "I agree." Why don't you add your thoughts a bit, like which wagon is better?

"no real effort to figure out who the scum are" - I think this applies to Amor. Amor's posts are more or less just comments on other developments or cases.

Amor is asking questions and presenting original analysis. You (and coheed, and greasy) are not.

This is as much a point against you as it is a defense. Until I pointed it out you seemed content to ignore and even defend other players who have committed the same acts that you have labeled as scummy.

Except it isn't the same. There may be similarities in some cases, but my opinion is that you have the least reason for your behavior other than alignment. You're the only one it all firmly applies to. There's also that bit where you're strongly linked to DBE, which makes me pay more attention to you.

Coheed is definitely scummier than neutral, especially after that last post. But for now you and DBE are my top two.

Greasy, comment on why you think DBE is a good lynch, please. Try to avoid summarizing old arguments as much as possible.

[Macavenger]

Bump.

Deadline in a bit under 6 days. I would recommend giving a couple more days for Greasy to hopefully answer some questions, then coheed or someone hammer DBE.

[Macavenger]

Heh. I guess I had DBE pegged wrong. I'm an obvious lynch but I still think we should take a look at GS's and coheed's play. blah blah blah I'm scum blah blah. I don't think we should tolerate this D4. I'd like some original content from him.

Vote: goborage

is the only content we need today.

If the game doesn't end when you're dead, I'll take a look at Greasy and coheed for you.

Also Darla, thanks for killing the tiny niggling doubts in the back of my head that you might have been a death miller.

[Macavenger]

My only defense regarding DBE is that it was a misread.

That's all well and dandy. How about your defenses for the fact that, in addition to that "misread," you've been damned useless to the town all game, carefully avoiding wagons that it didn't benefit scum to be on?

That and WIFOM. If I was playing scum I definitely wouldn't have defended DBE like I did. I'd bus her seeing as how so much of town found her scummy. In all earnestness, I didn't think her mass-defending was scummy, but I guess this shows what I know.

Hey, at least you admit this is crappy WIFOM. I can just as easily see scum thinking they have an easy mislynch in Greasy and trying to ride that out to get the town into LyLo before losing their partner. Claiming what you want us to think you'd do as scum is meaningless.

Anyways expect a claim at L-1 from me.

Might as well go ahead and claim now. coheed is threatening an L-1 vote on you, and I don't think it's going to be long before someone else comes to put on a real one.

[Macavenger]

Better justification of why you thought SoW and I were most protown at the time. Why SoW N1 and 2? Your posts toward the end of Day 1 indicate a neutral/suspicious attitude toward him.

Why did I become more protown than him during Day 3?

Mod:

Would you be willing to confirm the unflavored name for caf19's role, like you did for Riceballtail?

Apothecary being a protective role would be correct, and somewhat fits flavor-wise, though the flavor on the method strikes me as a bit off. Apothecaries were more pharmacists than alchemists.

Not buying the claim overall. It's a far better fakeclaim than Darla's (if it's fake), but we already have what looks like one dead protective role, and gobo's play this game has been damning.

I did some rereading. Amor and SoW are still very unlikely to be scum. populartajo is also unlikely at this point, I think - things like raising the possibility that riceball investigated DBE, and the attention to detail in pointing out her error in the town win condition, don't feel like bussing. Note that tajo knowing the town win condition doesn't confirm him by itself, because the vanilla PM is posted on page 1. Still, tajo moves down lots on my scum list after yesterday.

Honestly, I'm getting pretty close to saying if it isn't gobo, it almost has to be greasy, with an outside chance at coheed.

[Macavenger]

I think that Gobo's claim seems realistic and believable. Further, I think the flavor of his claim seems true to the game. Mac, if you do not believe in the potent formula, then what would you expect?

The claim is fairly believable overall. As I said, if it's fake, it's a pretty good one. The holes in are mainly that Apothecaries would generally be creating medicines for people to ingest, not dousing them with something. I can see that as being a disagreement between the mod and myself over the historical role of apothecaries, admittedly. The other is that caf19 was some kind of protective role by any reasonable assumption, and I'm skeptical of having two protective roles plus a JoAT.

I think that you were targeted on N1 and that you were guarded by caf19. I think that you were the target N3 again and that you were saved from lynch.

I don't think we're going to get anywhere looking at the N1 kill. You, caf19 and I were all excellent NK choices for scum then, and you and I were both excellent doctor choices. I still think there's a fairly good chance caf19 could have been targeted directly N1. I know dropping the hammer pretty much entirely cleared him in my mind.

As for last nights no-kill, I see three plausible explanations for this. One is that gobo is telling the truth, scum attempted to kill me, and he had a successful protection. Another is that gobo no-killed in order to set himself up for this claim today. Third would be that Greasy is scum, and didn't kill because he has basically no access right now and didn't make the deadline.

My choices at this time are Grease and Coheed. I will elaborate more later and decide my vote later.

I agree they're pretty much the choices if not gobo.

Overall I still think goborage's play this game, and his very firm links to DBE, are absolutely damning. He's done basically nothing to help the town, he was trying to keep DBE out of the noose, and DBE was protecting him all the way, even before he started really strongly defending her Day 3. The claim shouldn't be a clear all.

The other thing is, if not gobo, Greasy's name jumps immediately to the top of the list, in my opinion. The problem with that is that DBE was trying hard to get Greasy killed yesterday. Her play didn't read as distancing to me, but rather genuine attempt to lynch. If Greasy were her partner, that would be basically suicide, as she had to know she'd still be very high on the chopping block after that. This doesn't clear Greasy, but it makes me more skeptical than I otherwise would be.

I'd be willing to consider giving goborage a reprieve for a day, depending on his answers to tajo and I here - town is far enough ahead we can certainly afford to be a little sloppy at this point (let's not go overboard with that, though). At this point, while gobo, Greasy, coheed, and to a lesser extent tajo have all been scummy this game, goborage is the only one whose play doesn't give me at least one or two decent reasons to think he's not scum.

[Macavenger]

We could also massclaim if you guys want to. With 2 power roles already dead and one claimed, I can't see that it would do much damage, but there's a chance we could get a little more setup information that might clarify things a bit.

[Macavenger]

tajo, I largely agree with your conclusions, though I disagree a bit with the way you arrive at some of them.

I don't think anyone has any serious doubt that shepherd and I are town at this point.

Amor IMO is town based on his own play.

tajo I still have some mild reservations about, but if he was bussing DBE D2 and D3, he did a damned professional job of it.

I disagree that Greasy should be considered fully cleared by his interactions with DBE. She has been scum in Open 69 also (it's over, so we can talk about it), and chucked her buddy under the bus pretty hard there. That situation was a bit more desperate than what she was in this game, I think, but I wouldn't rule it out completely. Still, Greasy does seem less likely because of the way DBE went after him.

coheed is still a possibility. He's pretty lurky. Letting his vote sit on his buddy all of D1 seems like a weird scum activity to me, but then making a show of voting Smoke when his vote was already there in the runnup to deadline does seem like a possible scum ploy. Threatening to hammer DBE yesterday looks a little weird if he's her buddy, although that "I want to but you will all hate me" line could have been an excuse to not do it; that would be a risky gambit to pull though since we could have all just told him "go ahead." Could go either way on him.

I'd say everything points to goborage except the fact that he claimed pretty well.

Quote from Darla near the end of yesterday that was possibly interesting:

Before you all lynch me, which it seems you are gonna do, I would like to say that I have no knowledge of anyone's alignment, and my comment about gobo being neutral was just that, he didn't seem one way or the other on anyone.

Part of me thinks this is Darla going "shit, Mac figured it out, gotta distance with gobo before they lynch me," while the other part thinks that's way too obvious even for NewbieDarlaScum. Such is the point of WIFOM, I guess.

I'm also kind of questioning, flavored or not, whether we'd have a (functionally) straight up doctor in this game. Martyr is obviously not an entirely standard role in any way, and while JoAT is certainly used elsewhere, it's not exactly what I would consider an entirely standard role, either. Having a pure doctor just seems off to me in this setup.

Greasy is supposed to be off LA in a couple days. I would like to hear his and coheed's thoughts on the claim and this discussion before we lynch.

Unvote; FoS: goborage

[Macavenger]

One thing that I realized I forgot to point out which to me is an especially strong indicator of goborage being DBE's scumbuddy:

Goborage - 70% town, Seems townie to me, very logical and

scum hunting oriented.

(italics added)

This was from one of her player evals early Day 3. "Scum hunting oriented" is a total mischaracterization of goborage's play. Townie could be any flavor of scum WIFOM, logical I can see, but not scum hunting oriented. goborage contributed basically nothing to the actual scumhunt Day 1; he had to be chewed on by multiple players even to get a very basic player list with lots of neutral comments. Day 2 he lurked the entire day. The only thing you could remotely call scumhunting was his attacks on Greasy during Day 3, which all happened after that bit was posted.

Now, scum have plenty of reasons to legitimately defend townies. They don't

make up crappy reasons

to defend townies. That's what Darla did there for goborage.

Also, while going back to look for that quote, I found this from near the end of Day 3.

Neutral on Mac.

I don't think Mac voting off Malth makes him auto-town. However I also don't think that he's done anything damning. I suppose Mac's RBT post-analysis could be read as manipulative or conniving but I'll give him the benefit of the doubt.

"Neutral on Mac" but somehow over the next page, which had little content, I somehow surpassed SoW in towniness enough to become most protown and merit doctor protection.

[Macavenger]

Doesn't answer the "made up crap reasons to defend you" part. That quote also comes from before the Day 3 wagon on her started and you came out against her lynch.

I don't think there's anything you can really say that will counter that.

Screw waiting for Greasy and coheed, I've made up my mind. gobo is the scum. Let's get this over with.

Vote: goborage

[Macavenger]

This amuses me because shepherd is better at defending goborage than goborage is. I still find the gob<->DBE interactions damning, though.

As far as setup speculation, I would actually lean the opposite direction - this setup strikes me as a bloodthirsty one where we really aren't supposed to be avoiding NKs (just redirecting one with the martyr), and probably a low power town overall. JoAT's abilities can vary, and based on flavor my guess is that ours had one shot each of cop, vig, tracker, and maybe roleblocker - I doubt he had a protection. I can pretty easily believe that the JoAT and Martyr were our only two powers - JoAT is a very powerful one, more so than it looks at first glance.

[Macavenger]

goborage - who do you think the scum is, and why? I don't want "Greasy or coheed," I want one name, and reasons.

[Macavenger]

Being suspicious of both is fine; the purpose of the exercise was to force you to take a stance on the issue one way or the other, rather than just being able to sit there and waffle about it as much as you liked.

I'm a little surprised by the direction you went. What made you pick coheed, instead of Greasy who you were pushing on yesterday? The "convinced myself by writing this" thing is circular.

As for the massclaim thing, I'm relatively neutral, slightly in favor. I doubt we'll gain much new information from it, but we might, and I can't see how it would cause any harm at this point.

[Macavenger]

True enough.

Must decide if I really believe that's an honest change of opinion, or just trying to go with the town and get anyone but gobo lynched. Hmm.

[Macavenger]

coheed hasn't posted in 3 days. I'd like to see his thoughts on this.

Mod:

Prod coheed please?

[Macavenger]

coheed, what do you think of goborage's claim?

[Macavenger]

Warning that I might hammer coheed sometime soonish. If you're voting him and don't want him dead yet, suggest unvoting. I still think most of the evidence points to gobo, but I'm starting to accept I may not get my way there today.

I looked back over Darla's quotes again. Her shifting opinion on Greasy kinda matches the town's. Not sure if she was just trying to blend in and get him lynched, or trying to bus him after linking him to me to try to get me as a mislynch after him. That's really the only bit that I see pointing to him as her buddy, though.

I'd like to know why everyone is so eager to believe goborage's claim, when there's a bunch of evidence that he's been scummy, and he's the best connected to the dead scum by far? There's no rule that says we have to have a doctor.

Actually, something just occurred to me too. Flavorwise, Riceballtail had a gun, and the NPCs are using cars and phones. Apothecaries are a Medieval era profession. That would fit in well with a lot of werewolf games, but not so well with the flavor in ours. Food for thought.

[Macavenger]

Do not like this retconning reasons and "oh god please look at anyone but me" from coheed. Definitely willing to hammer him now.

Reminder that deadline is in about 4 days now, so we need to make some kind of choice and hammer it soon. I still support either gobo or coheed lynches.

[Macavenger]

OK, we're getting pretty close to deadline, and it's pretty clear no one else wants to lynch goborage today, so I'm going to go ahead and vote for coheed.

Unvote; Vote: coheed

Greasy - what makes you think populartajo's play Day 3 looks like bussing? Because it very much looks like not bussing to me.

[Macavenger]

Mine says I win when only the town is alive, so based on your actions we should vote for you for having a false claim right

Say what? Full claim now, or die. The vanilla PM is on the front page, and that is not its win condition.

Unvote; Vote: Greasy Spot

[Macavenger]

Now that Grease has explained he got the games mixed up, do the people suspecting him still want him to claim?

He already did claim (vanilla). I can buy the mixing up games thing.

Unvote; Vote: coheed

I still think goborage is the best bet for scum, but I also think it's pretty clear I won't get a majority on that in the next couple days. I still maintain that tajo's actions towards DBE Day 3 don't look like bussing to me, and I doubt he's scum at this point.

[Macavenger]

I'm having trouble believing scum would have been willing to play outguess the claimed doc on such an obvious target. OTOH, nokilling 2 nights in a row to support a doc claim is also really questionable.

Greasy or gobo today still, obviously. I think I still favor gobo.

[Macavenger]

Goborage protecting two days in a row seems slightly suspicious. I mean, why did the scum didnt kill him?

Because if he's town, scum needs him alive as a mislynch, obviously. What I have more trouble buying is if he's town, why scum didn't kill someone like Amor last night, who's not on the table for a lynch but would be unlikely to draw protection. I suppose that argument applies to if goborage is scum too actually, so either way, the last scum is really screwing up his kill choices right now.

May as well

Vote: goborage

at this point. I have reason to believe everyone else is town right now.

[Macavenger]

To Mac, who posted while I was writing. There is one obvious reason I would have come off as a night kill choice even last night, reread. I will not mention it until more discussion happens.

I'm not seeing this, and really want it explained.

Thinking about what Shepherd has said a bit more, I can see a possible Greasy Lynch. I want Shepherd to explain the above first, though. Also want to see Shepherd explain why he so firmly believes goborage's claim despite all the evidence pointing to him.

tajo - Amor is very likely town based on his own play. He contributed well to scumhunting early on, and pretty much tunnel visioned Darla for the first three days, at least with his vote. I consider him about one level above Shepherd and myself right now in scumminess, and would lynch you well before him.

[Macavenger]

Add reply to tajo's last post, which I somehow didn't see while writing the above: I'm still guessing scum killed RBT because they read him as a cop with an investigation on Darla.

[Macavenger]

I've spent some time today rereading and thinking about this game.

Obvious conclusions first: not that this should surprise anyone, but SoW and I are fully confirmed town. goborage is either a doctor with successful protections on us, clearing us, or he's lying and is the last scum. Either way, we're both town.

I still believe Amor is also very likely to be town. I wish he'd post a bit more, but his early game play is solidly townish. He contributed original thoughts and hunted for scum. He also pushed against Darla every day until she was lynched, and made no real effort toward getting anyone else lynched, ever, until she was dead. If that was bussing, well, kudos. Darla also treats him in a very similar manner to how she treated several other townies Day 1, including myself and coheed, with the suspect, vote, unvote after a post pattern.

I still don't see a strongly compelling reason to think Greasy Spot is scum. A lot of his play is fairly anti-town, but depressingly consistent with his normal town play. I still think the way DBE interacted with him was not bussing. He was an easy target and she was trying hard to get him lynched, and came close to succeeding. Bussing your last buddy really isn't a good plan when you're also circling the drain as she was. I pretty solidly believe she was trying to get a scummy townie lynched to buy her team another day.

I've thought about goborage's claim and protections more recently. Giving up two kills isn't specifically a bad play as scum, or more specifically, giving up the second one wasn't, because it doesn't take the town any farther away from LyLo. The first no-kill happened with 7 alive, giving us the possibility of 2 mislynches before Lylo, as opposed to the one we'd have had if a kill had gone through leaving 6 alive. The second nokill, leaving 6 instead of 5, is fairly irrelevant, since we'll just lynch once and, if we get it wrong, probably no lynch to go from 4 to 3, giving the kill back. Giving up the first kill to back up a doc claim is more questionable than the second, particularly since he probably wouldn't have known for certain that he would have to claim that day. What doesn't make sense about it is confirming two different townies, if he were giving up kills to back up his claim. The fact that he's now confirmed both SoW and I is a terrible play if he's scum, as he's pretty much now guaranteed that he'd have to go through endgame with a confirmed townie, which scum hate. If we lynch wrong today, scum get a kill, we probably no lynch, and another kill brings us to three. However, goborage couldn't reasonably kill off both SoW and I if he's fake claiming - he could get one with the excuse "I protected the other" easily enough, but if the second also died, the remaining townies would be all over him.

Thinking about this in these terms makes me more inclined to believe goborage's claim than I have been.

This brings me to the main subject of this post, populartajo. I've been thinking for a while that the original trifecta from Day 1 was really too good to be true, but that's not honestly an argument against it. Looking over things again, I'm finding it to have a lot more merit to it still than I've been thinking lately.

First, there's SoW's original trifecta post. This was great reading at the time, and really looks nothing but better now that DBE and Malthusis have both come up scum.

tajo spends basically all of Day 1 mounting a massive chainsaw defense of Malthusis and, to a lesser extent, DBE. He mainly attacks my arguments, and also demands cases against DBE from people attacking her. He very rarely does any direct defending, usually just to DBE by claiming she's a newbie, but spends the entire day trying to get attention elsewhere.

You have a point here. I'd sincerely be in your ass and pushing your lynch if Malthusis hadn't decided to give up against your weak logic, lurk and ask for a replacement.

So, what was he doing all of Day 1 then? He spent the entire day voting me and arguing with me about my methods. If this isn't what he was doing, what is?

It's worth noting that in the majority of his posts, all tajo does is argue with me, with the occassional one line defense of Darla or vague insinuation against SoW. There wasn't any other real scumhunting, just the argument. I still spent most of the day arguing with him, but also find time to do some scumhunting on DBE, Amor, goborage, and coheed, off the top of my head. tajo didn't.

He defends DBE Day 1 because she's a newbie, but then there's this:

No. This is only the third game I joined on this site, up to 5 total counting two I've joined since then. I haven't exactly had a lot of opportunities, especially since three of the games I either replaced into or didn't have a typical random voting phase. It's also far from a tactic I would use every game in any case; it's something I'd only use when I already thought a player was being too jumpy.

So, do you consider yourself a relative newbie? Then how do you know exactly what kind of reactions scum can give?

Which is basically some combination of the appeal to authority fallacy and attacking me because of some level of newness. Good double standard and all around poor logic.

Another thing I'd like to point out here is less concrete, but a product of growing experience. As of Day 1 in this game, I'd never been scum on this site. I have completed a game as scum since then (see Newbie 580, I replaced in at the start of Day 2 - Amor should be quite familiar with it already ), and have a better feel for how playing that side works. I can comment that one of the most frustrating things as scum is seeing townies make correct arguments and not understanding why. The scum in this game were very likely in this state Day 1, seeing their buddy Malthusis getting tagged and run up starting on page 2. tajo's play Day 1 seems fairly indicative of this, where he just keeps repeating the same arguments over and over despite getting nowhere, along with his repeated assertions that he didn't trust SoW without any real basis. Having played in a similar situation, I can now say this looks to me like scum trying to fight back against an argument they don't totally understand, and have no real logical reason to oppose. It's notable that tajo's vague "I don't like this guy" statements about SoW stopped around the time he and DBE got out of the spotlight Day 2, well before SoW was considered confirmed town to the extent that he is now.

Also in this vein, tajo questions the trifecta argument a couple of times on Day 1, mainly just suggesting that it's too broad, too perfect to be real. This isn't a good argument against it, and reeks of caught scum trying to undermine the arguments against his group with anything he can think of.

This is also part of the reason I'm looking back at Day 1 so much - knowing now that town basically caught two scum Day 1 for reasons that looked a little weird at the time, I definitely seeing scum being flustered and more likely to slip up on Day 1 here.

There's also tajo's rapid flip on DBE at the beginning of Day 2. This has been brought up before. The fact is that the points he was raising to defend her Day 1 (mainly newb flagging) were still entirely applicable after malthusis flipped scum. Yet, suddenly she's obvscum. At the time, I thought he might have been a malthusis buddy trying to get an easy lynch on a townie (part of the reason I got distracted from DBE D2), which was obviously not the case. Still, I don't think this looks good. All indications at the start of Day 2 were that Darla was up for a pretty quick lynch. If tajo tries to stop this and DBE flips scum, he's gonna look extremely bad for defending both scum, and probably get run up in very short order Day 3, which is game over. Bussing is really his only play there, if he's scum with her, and I still don't see a townish reason for that flip.

Looking at more recent play, tajo seems very eager to lynch in the last couple days. While I somewhat agreed with the sentiment at the time, his initial Day 4 post just voting for goborage "obv obv" seemed a bit odd, considering that he hadn't really made an argument about gobo the previous day, as I had. This also reminds me a tactic I used as scum - townies coming up with links between your partner and a townie are horribly useful. I pounced on such a link as scum, because if I get the townie lynched, my partner looks better, and if I have to bus my partner, I can drive a townie lynch afterwards without being accused of setting up a lynch. The latter could be what tajo is doing here.

Then today there's his "well, let's look at these unconfirmed people - what do you think of Amor?" which rubs me the wrong way. It struck me as "please look at anyone but me!"

Thinking back to my scum play, I can also see Darla's omission of goborage from her list of players near the end of Day 3 as a framing tactic. I similarly left someone that a couple players thought might be my partner out of an argument I had to make in a LyLo argument there, to try to frame him in case I lost. The more I'm looking at this, the more I'm seeing scum tactics of DBE and tajo trying to bus DBE and frame goborage as her buddy.

I think I had a couple more things to say, but this post is already gigantic and my brain is starting to fry. While Greasy's argument basically sucks, after review I agree with him that we should be going back and looking at the original trifecta again.

Unvote; Vote: populartajo

[Macavenger]

tajo, what you just posted really isn't a defense, or a case on anyone else. It was pretty much just "please guys don't lynch me." That doesn't really do anything for me. Look at all possibilities? We have been, and you look like scum. You look at them, and tell us who's scum and why we should lynch them over you.

[Macavenger]

Post 601 is a bad post for a doctor.

Why?

[Macavenger]

Because you needed him alive as a mislynch, obv.

A hammer would be neato.

[Macavenger]

I plan to win the game when you come up werewolf.

Failing that, we'll have to decide between gobo and Greasy.

[Macavenger]

Successful saves on 2 different people make his claim far more likely than previously.

Your entire defense being lots of WIFOM is not lowering my confidence that you're scum any.

[Macavenger]

Holy cow. Gobo, protection?

Thinking Greasy should be the lynch today. No-killing three nights in a row to back up a doc claim would be total insanity, especially last night when doing so would be the difference between putting the town in LyLo or not.

[Macavenger]

Very much doubt there's a second scumgroup with no kill. How would 2 scum with a kill ever be balanced against a group of 2 scum without a kill? Doesn't make any sense. I could see some possibility of a remaining wolf without a kill, but I doubt it. I think Occam's Razor applies here - I believe goborage got three successful protections, particularly since once there was no kill I had guessed he was going to claim SoW. The sequence makes sense to me - kill me for being very protown, kill SoW for kinda hinting he might have a power, kill SoW again for the same and trying to outguess the doc that he wouldn't protect the same target twice in a row. It's also possible that scum (especially if Greasy) failed to submit a kill one of those nights.

Regardless of if the remaining scum(s) have a kill or not, I still firmly believe they're within {gobo, Greasy, Amor}. Even if you don't treat SoW and I as confirmed by night actions, I think it's reasonable to clear both of us from our daytime play. It's not like anyone was surprised by us getting doc-confirmed.

Personal belief at this point is that goborage is the doc, with one remaining wolf and successful protections the last three nights. The remaining wolf is then either Greasy or Amor, more likely Greasy.

Vote: Greasy Spot

[Macavenger]

Still say that would be horribly imbalanced. Even if somehow true, I don't see how it changes much for today.

I mean, let's think about this. Why would you and Amor bring the possibility up now if you were in such a group? Further, if it were hypothetically you and Amor, you could have just hammered for the win, and didn't. I know I'm not scum, so presumably it would be Greasy and Shepherd? So I guess Shepherd spent days fighting madly to get his partner lynched? Not buying it.

If there is a team of two left somehow, Greasy almost has to be in it. In the far more likely scenario that there's only one wolf left, it's probably Greasy.

[Macavenger]

I got a question. Can a Mafia Roleblocker perform a kill if they are the only scum left?

Depends on the mod.

OK, analysis:

We have basically three assumptions as to the remaining scum. I'm going to analyze them in the order I find most likely.

1) There is one remaining scum, a buddy of Malthusis and DBE, who has a kill and has been blocked by gobo/lazy/nokilling the last three nights.

In this event, the game is sewed up for the town. gobo's protections absolutely clear SoW and I in this case, and three nights in a row entirely clears him as well, in my opinion. If gobo were scum, he could pretty easily have just killed me (the only player still pushing for his lynch in any realistic degree) and gotten the rest of the town to lynch greasy, winning. So under this theory, the remaining scum must be either Greasy or Amor, IMO more likely Greasy. Lynch one of them today, and even if we hit the townie and they get a kill in tonight, we can lynch the other tomorrow, winning.

2) There is one remaining scum, a buddy of Malthusis and DBE, who does not have a kill.

In this event, no one is entirely cleared. However, I know it's not me and I'm confident it's not shepherd, and the rest of you should be pretty confident about this too; bussing both buddies, leaving yourself with no kill, starting from day 1 would be a totally insane gambit to pull. Since the scum don't have a kill in this theory, we can actually lynch all three of Greasy, Amor, and gobo if necessary to find the last scum. In this case, I would think the most likely scum would be gobo > Greasy > Amor, however gobo should not be lynched today given that he is cleared in other scenarios.

3) There are two remaining scum, unconnected to mallthusis and DBE, who do not have a kill.

I still find this scenario outlandish, but will analyze it anyway since several people seem to like it. In this case, no one is really cleared by night actions or early game play. However, the way this day has devloped is instructive in this case, because if this scenario is true we're actually in LyLo right now. SoW and gobo have both posted with 2 votes on Greasy, and neither has hammered. If either of them were scum with anyone but Greasy, they could have hammered and won the game. Considering that I know I'm not scum, this means that any theoretical 2 man group

must

contain Greasy. For the rest of you that don't know I'm not scum, this theoretical group could be Greasy with anyone, or myself and Amor.


So, Greasy has been acting anti-town all game, and unless you really believe Amor and I are scum together, there's really no way we can lose by lynching him. I see very little reason not to lynch him today.

[Macavenger]

And the rest of us know that because?

[Macavenger]

So, there's basically no reason for the reversal between 653 and 663. First gobo is a doc so Amor is the scum, now because of 3 day old arguments, gobo is the scum? Doesn't add up. You're just trying to deflect, Greasy. You're also ignoring that the arguments against gobo are pretty thoroughly undermined by 3 straight nights of no NK.

Someone hammer Greasy, please.

[Macavenger]

Have you even read my posts today? I suggested that the past two days. It was plausible until the third nokill. It's not anymore, and I've explained why. If he's scum, he doesn't have a kill. Do you seriously think I've just forgotten about my own arguments? Why did you vote Amor in the first place if you think they still have merit? Why say you're making a big post when most of it is just one of mine copy/pasted, plus some statements of agreement?

[Macavenger]

goborage claimed days ago... you're not making sense.

[Macavenger]

Because the idea that there could be two scum left on the same team who didn't know each other honestly didn't occur to me, gobo had basically confirmed that, if he was scum, he didn't have a kill and there was no incentive to lynch him quickly, and that if there were two scum without a kill, Greasy had to be one of them.

I'm a little unhappy with this result, not because of what PJ did so much as I think this game seriously stretched the boundaries of what would be considered a normal game. Scum who don't know each other, a double voter, and whatever the heck a martyr was seems a bit ridiculous for a "normal."