Mini 559 - Cult Mafia again - Game over

dahen · Post Post #1000 (ISO) » Wed Apr 23, 2008 1:06 am

Hmm, yes, from my PM it seems that we need to get rid of cults to win and from the cult PM it seems that the cult needs to take over the town.

Mod:

Please clarify who wins/loses/ties in a morning with equal number of towns and cults and no mafia left.

Yes, Xtoxm, BM is probably not CR as I said, but he could be culted. I see no reason as to why the CR wouldn't try to recruit him last night. And since I didn't believe his cop claim at the time he claimed, he could just as well have been recruited that night.

So if we rule out BM as CR, as I see it the worst situation is:

1. BM M, Norinel C, Oman CR
2. BM M, Norinel CR, Oman C
3. BM C, Norinel M, Oman CR
4. BM C, Norinel CR, Oman M

If we add the possibility of BM being town, we get these as well (but it is possible that anyone of BM,Norinel,Oman are town)

5. BM T, Norinel CR, Oman M
6. BM T, Norinel M, Oman CR

The claims will be interesting, but I'll see if I can rule out any of the combinations above in the meantime.

curiouskarmadog · Post Post #1001 (ISO) » Wed Apr 23, 2008 1:11 am

Xtoxm wrote:Also, I was under the impression that in a 2 cult - 2 power townies...The cult wins...

if going into the day there were 2 power role townies and 2 cult left, the day would continue as normal. If there was a no lynch at the end of that day, it would be considered a double loss (there are no ties).

Xtoxm · Post Post #1002 (ISO) » Wed Apr 23, 2008 1:12 am

Thanks, CKD.

I'm pretty sure we can rule out Oman as CR, though...He went through 2 nights as a claimed doctor...

dahen · Post Post #1003 (ISO) » Wed Apr 23, 2008 1:30 am

Xtoxm wrote: I'm pretty sure we can rule out Oman as CR, though...He went through 2 nights as a claimed doctor...

Yes, that's right. But mafia didn't kill him. Why not?
1. Because he is mafia himself (possible)
2. Because the mafia didn't believe his claim (possible, and then your point is invalid)
3. Because the mafia believed his claim, but wanted to hunt for the CR instead (unprobable)

Xtoxm · Post Post #1004 (ISO) » Wed Apr 23, 2008 1:34 am

My point is, with the high risk of being NKed, I don't think the CR would have claimed doctor. It's plausable from the viewpoint of mafia or townie.

Can you see the CR claiming doctor?

dahen · Post Post #1005 (ISO) » Wed Apr 23, 2008 1:37 am

No, I believe you are right.

I want claims NOW. I've got a few things to say, but not until everyone has claimed.

dahen · Post Post #1006 (ISO) » Wed Apr 23, 2008 1:43 am

I have no problems with Oman claiming before Norinel. (Yes I want a full statement from both guys.)

Xtoxm · Post Post #1007 (ISO) » Wed Apr 23, 2008 1:47 am

If we leave them with no claim order, it'll probably just slow things down.

I'd like Norinel to go first as I don't see Oman being the CR.

Let's keep quiet til they've claimed...

Oman · Post Post #1008 (ISO) » Wed Apr 23, 2008 1:53 am

I'm read the above and find it flawed.

Especially as dahen's plans make me some form of scum.

Hey Xtoxm: Tell me what made you think Dahen was a powerrole.

Xtoxm · Post Post #1009 (ISO) » Wed Apr 23, 2008 1:55 am

Claims first plz...

Norinel · Post Post #1010 (ISO) » Wed Apr 23, 2008 5:50 am

Claim first: I'm a cop, can detect cult, innocents on Xtox, BM, and PP in that order. Given BM's behavior recently, I wouldn't be surprised if I were naive.

dahen wrote:
Norinel wrote: Half of the points raised against me were absurd, and I've already addressed the rest.
Giving up already?

Not at all. Here's the entirety of yesterday's "proof" that I'm CR:

1. I supposedly pushed the OMG problems Day 1, and hammered under odd circumstances.
2. I made "coaching" comments to GW Day 2, trying to advise him how to behave more pro-town.
3. I mentioned in MD that this game was interesting as a cult game.

I addressed point 1 yester-Day:

Norinel wrote:
Pink Puppy wrote:Looking back at Norinel's posts I think he perpetuated the problems with OMG, and he also hammered at the end of day in a suspicious way (I have already commented about how I think his hammer was weird).
Early on, I was trying to keep the town from falling into the trap of just talking about him and trying to talk OMG down or convince him that his behavior wasn't helping the town- you took a pretty similar tack at first. We talked about the timing of the hammer yesterday, but by that point it was clear he wasn't going to change, he wasn't helping the town, he expected to be lynched, and we'd been waffling over his suicide vote for more than a page.

Plus, I'd argue that such a risky and attention-drawing play would be suicide as CR, when you don't necessarily have any allies and getting lynched/investigated/vigged basically means game over. Point 2 is entirely void for the simple reason that the cult can talk during the day, and tying point 3 to my role in this game is entirely ridiculous.

Nobody has provided any reasons since then; people (Mostly BM) have pretty much been asserting that I'm CR with no case whatsoever.

Xtoxm wrote:So who do you want to lynch today, Norinel?

Well, I believe your claim, and I believe my claim, so that's the PRs covered and the scum must be among dahen/BM/Oman. I don't think three PRs makes sense balance-wise unless the mafia have a major trick up their sleeves, which would make dahen some sort of scum. My best guess now (But I'd need to read some more to sort it out) is dahen Mafia and one of BM or Oman the CR who recruited the other last night.

Strategy-wise, I think dahen's scenarios are pretty good; a cult or townie lynch today is the only way the town can win, so I'd be up for a BM/Oman lynch. But he's missing something critical- it takes three votes to lynch today, and if the cult's got two people the town doesn't have a majority. But since any lynch basically hands the game to one faction (Or ensures a mutual loss), there doesn't seem to be any way to pull off a lynch today.

Xtoxm · Post Post #1011 (ISO) » Wed Apr 23, 2008 5:56 am

You think one of 2 power roles would be naive? I really don't that. I also don't believe you.

Oman.

Battle Mage · Post Post #1012 (ISO) » Wed Apr 23, 2008 6:14 am

Norinel wrote:Claim first: I'm a cop, can detect cult, innocents on Xtox, BM, and PP in that order. Given BM's behavior recently, I wouldn't be surprised if I were naive.

Wait. You're a cop or a cult cop? Kind of a significant difference there. Also, why the hell would you be naive? You dont think in a game where the Mod has clearly set up the power roles in a way which they are of threat to the scum/benefit to the town, that there would be a completely broken, useless power role?
If there was any doubt of you being scum, this claim removes it.

Vote: Norinel

BM

Oman · Post Post #1013 (ISO) » Wed Apr 23, 2008 6:30 am

I'm a nurse

I thought/knew there was a doc out there so I decided to claim doc so that I could draw the NK off him.

If dahen is the doc (as I guess that he is) I will confirm him innocent.

BM or Nirinel are my picks. "Might be niave" Piss off.

Now what made you think dahen was a power role?

Xtoxm · Post Post #1014 (ISO) » Wed Apr 23, 2008 6:35 am

You and BM had claimed townie, I was pretty sure Norinel was a scum, leaving dahen, who has looked consistently protown throughout, to be a power townie.

And I though his posting little fitted in with this as a power doesn't want to attract the NK.

Oman · Post Post #1015 (ISO) » Wed Apr 23, 2008 6:54 am

Yeah well I was playing as a vanilla townie who couldn't be recruited. Which is essentially my role. Thats why I took the risk, trying to get NKed, thats why I am happy to hunt the scum and cult interchangably.

Anyway. I need to vote either BM or Norinel. In fact, I'd actually rather lynch one, vig the other, personally. Of course, this all depends on what Dahen says he is Power role wise.

Xtoxm · Post Post #1016 (ISO) » Wed Apr 23, 2008 7:02 am

Well I don't think Nurse would be a role provided in this game...It's a back-up role...I think the roles would be straight powers.

Xtoxm · Post Post #1017 (ISO) » Wed Apr 23, 2008 7:03 am

Given your dire position, I can see you having a stab a what dahen is to try and give yourself some credability.

Oman · Post Post #1018 (ISO) » Wed Apr 23, 2008 7:17 am

Xtoxm...seriously, I can't see a CR doing what I did. I sure wouldn't risk it when I did (I might claim doc now as a CR, but only if I thought I was gonna get lynched). Mafia on the other hand...eh. I probably would've killed better if i were mafia.

For one thing, I would've killed YOU earlier, and then BM.

Oh and speculation on whether these powerroles are straight or back-ups are unfounded. Its only your opinion and its hardly accurate.

Xtoxm · Post Post #1019 (ISO) » Wed Apr 23, 2008 7:19 am

I haven't been saying that I think you're the CR.

curiouskarmadog · Post Post #1020 (ISO) » Wed Apr 23, 2008 7:28 am

Official Vote Count

(Page 41, Day 4)

Norinel

– 1 (Battle Mage)

Not Voting:

dahen, Norinel, Oman, Xtoxm

3 to lynch, 2 is a no lynch

Battle Mage · Post Post #1021 (ISO) » Wed Apr 23, 2008 9:17 am

Xtoxm wrote:Well I don't think Nurse would be a role provided in this game...It's a back-up role...I think the roles would be straight powers.

I would like to agree. Having said that, look at the claims we have so far. naive Cult Cop, Nurse, 2 shot Vig. All seem like peculiar roles for this game to feature. Much as id like to say that Oman and Norinel are just spouting total BS, the bastard moddish consistency of all the claims so far is notable.

BM

Battle Mage · Post Post #1022 (ISO) » Wed Apr 23, 2008 9:21 am

Oman wrote:Xtoxm...seriously, I can't see a CR doing what I did. I sure wouldn't risk it when I did (I might claim doc now as a CR, but only if I thought I was gonna get lynched).

I dont believe anyone is accusing you of being Cult.

Oman wrote: Mafia on the other hand...eh. I probably would've killed better if i were mafia.

Gee. Having regrets? lol

Oman wrote: For one thing, I would've killed YOU earlier, and then BM.

Yeh but, as a claimed Doc that wouldnt have looked very good now would it? I dont think theres any question of you being mafia. Of course, that means we arent going to lynch you today anyway, so i dont see why you are so anxious to fakeclaim again...

BM

Battle Mage · Post Post #1023 (ISO) » Wed Apr 23, 2008 9:22 am

Oman wrote:Yeah well I was playing as a vanilla townie who couldn't be recruited. Which is essentially my role. Thats why I took the risk, trying to get NKed, thats why I am happy to hunt the scum and cult interchangably.

Anyway. I need to vote either BM or Norinel. In fact, I'd actually rather lynch one, vig the other, personally. Of course, this all depends on what Dahen says he is Power role wise.

You think we have another Vig??

dahen · Post Post #1024 (ISO) » Wed Apr 23, 2008 9:55 am

This is interesting.
Oman: A nurse fake claiming doc, I'm not sure I see the point of that.
I'd like to know how your role works. Do you send in night choices in the case the doc will die or there is no doc? Will you be told when you get powers? What exactly can you do?

Bed time. You'll hear more tomorrow.