Mini 559 - Cult Mafia again - Game over

[Xtoxm]

When the doc dies, he becomes doc and gains the powers, is how the role works...

[Oman]

Yeh but, as a claimed Doc that wouldnt have looked very good now would it?

Too easy to refute ("Oh I was WIFOMing with the scum and they called the bluff")

Of course, that means we arent going to lynch you today anyway, so i dont see why you are so anxious to fakeclaim again...

The best part of that is that at least I won't be lynched until it doesn't really matter.

You think we have another Vig??

Goddamn I keep forgetting.

Oman: A nurse fake claiming doc, I'm not sure I see the point of that.

I had "protection" from both sides. Being powerless (essentially) means I wasn't afraid of getting NKed, my death could even confirm a doctor later. I also wasn't afraid of the cult, so it was game on for me, playing fearlessly.

My role PM says (unfortunatly this is from memory, because I just cleared my inbox and accientally didn't save a few role PMs) If a doctor dies, you will take their powers/will become a doctor.

A few things I looked for ASAP was: Did it specifically say there was a doctor in the game? No. Did it specifically say there would be only one doctor in the game? No.

I figured Dahen was the doc.

[dahen]

When the doc dies, he becomes doc and gains the powers, is how the role works

Thanks, but I know what a nurse is. I also know that it doesn't always work the same way. That's why I asked Oman.

Oman: Clearing your inbox like that is stupid. You should die only for that. And also for saying a Nurse is a powerless role who is not afraid to die. Nurse is a very good role for the town.

my death could even confirm a doctor later

Did it specifically say there was a doctor in the game? No.

If there was no gurarantee for a doc in the game, how would your death then guarantee one? Also, by claiming doc, worst case would have been a counter-claim from the real doc, leading to a lynched nurse and a night-killed doc.

So, I don't buy either of the cop or nurse claims. BM as townie, maybe.

[dahen]

Now here is the thing again:
2 cults
2 pr's
1 mafia

Lynch M

: Triple loss, so no-one wants that. Cult knows who is mafia and should prevent this from happening.

Won't happen

.

Lynch P, Nightkill P

: Cult wins. But mafia won't do this.

Won't happen

.

Lynch P, Nightkill C

: Mafia wins or everyone loses. Mafia wants this. Cult does not, so will not lynch P.

Won't happen

.

Lynch C, Nightkill C

: Town wins. But mafia won't do this.

Won't happen

.

Lynch C, Nightkill P

: Mafia wins or everyone loses. Only mafia wants this, so...

Won't happen

.

So, if there are two cultists left, they cannot win and neither can the town.
The only side who can win this game is mafia. If you don't believe me, then read the above reasoning again.

[Oman]

[quote="Dahen]Lynch C, Nightkill C: Town wins. But mafia won't do this. [/quote] Mafia can still win here.

[Oman]

Okay, now to beat on Dahen's worst post evar!

Oman: Clearing your inbox like that is stupid. You should die only for that.

Why thank you. Trying to get me killed for a logistical problem, how wonderfully protown of you.

And also for saying a Nurse is a powerless role who is not afraid to die. Nurse is a very good role for the town.

Not without a doctor, and not until the doctor dies. basically, the way I play nurse is none of your business, and how I play it worked well, didn't it?

If there was no gurarantee for a doc in the game, how would your death then guarantee one?

....lulz? If there is a doctor int he game, come crunch my existance would near confirm the doctor as real and not fakeclaiming scum.

Also, by claiming doc, worst case would have been a counter-claim from the real doc, leading to a lynched nurse and a night-killed doc.

Seeing someone claim doc the way I did, Only the worlds worst doctor would counter and get me lynched.

I trust Xtoxm as town, and Dahen as town (for some damn reason).

I want to lynch Norinel or BM, and I won't be swayed.

Norinel has been tagged as a scum for a while. His claim is worse than mine. And I'm getting flak from the "unknown" powerrole who is hardly sensical.

[dahen]

So, in order to proceed, we simply HAVE to assume something else (if we are wrong, there is not much to regret, since we couldn't win anyway in the above scenario):

First option (BM truthful, Oman+Norinel lying):
1 CR
2 PR's
1 townie
1 mafia

Lynch M

:

Town wins!

Lynch CR

:

Town wins!

Lynch T, Nightkill CR

: Town wins.

Won't happen

Lynch T, Nightkill PR

:

Mafia wins or triple loss.

Ok, so if BM is a townie, then we can lynch Oman or Norinel and win this game. Good for us.

Next option: (BM lying, Oman or Norinel truethful)
1 CR
3 PR
1 M

Lynch M

: Cult can't recruit. Town gets two lynches.

Town wins!

Lynch CR

: Mafia kills a PR.

Town or mafia wins!

Lynch PR, Nightkill CR

: Town wins, so

won't happen

Lynch PR, Nightkill PR

:

Mafia wins or everyone loses.

I see no more options, do you?
So, what does this give us:
Option 1:

Lynch Oman or Norinel =

Town wins!

Lynch anyone else

= Triple loss

.
Option 2:

Lynch M-BM: Town wins!

Lynch CR-BM

: Town must figure out if Norinel or Oman is mafia.

Town or mafia wins.

Lynch M-Oman/M-Norinel: Town wins!

Lynch CR-Oman/CR-Norinel

: Town must figure out if BM or Norinel/Oman is mafia.

Town or mafia wins

Lynch Nurse-Oman/Cop-Norinel: Triple loss

So, I suggest we lynch Norinel or Oman. That case we win in Option 1 and we have 50% of winning in Option 2. Thoughts? In neither of these cases can cult win. It looks tough for the cult.

[dahen]

Lynch C, Nightkill C: Town wins. But mafia won't do this.

Mafia can still win here.

No way. This means leaving mafia + Xtoxm and me. I won't vote Xtoxm and he won't vote me. Mafia knows this and won't let that happen.

I will only vote Norinel or Oman unless you can convince me that my reasoing around the numbers is wrong.

[Xtoxm]

So we must assume BM is telling the truth...

[Xtoxm]

Well I really don't believe either of Oman or Norinel atm.

[curiouskarmadog]

Official Vote Count

(Page 42, Day 4)

Norinel

– 1 (Battle Mage)

Not Voting:

dahen, Norinel, Oman, Xtoxm

3 to lynch, 2 is a no lynch

[Battle Mage]

This is interesting.
Oman: A nurse fake claiming doc, I'm not sure I see the point of that.
I'd like to know how your role works. Do you send in night choices in the case the doc will die or there is no doc? Will you be told when you get powers? What exactly can you do?

Bed time. You'll hear more tomorrow.

umm are you claiming Doctor then??

BM

[Battle Mage]

Now here is the thing again:
2 cults
2 pr's
1 mafia

Lynch M

: Triple loss, so no-one wants that. Cult knows who is mafia and should prevent this from happening.

Won't happen

.

this is wrong. Firstly, lynching Mafia in this case would not be an automatic loss. The Mod just said that in that scenario, the game would merely carry on to determine the winner, if the power roles had the ability to beat the cults at night. Plus how do you figure that the cult knows for certain who the mafia is?

Lynch P, Nightkill P

: Cult wins. But mafia won't do this.

Won't happen

.

this is wrong too. Mafia could well do that, on the grounds that they think there is only 1 cult left, as opposed to 2.

Lynch P, Nightkill C

: Mafia wins or everyone loses. Mafia wants this. Cult does not, so will not lynch P.

Won't happen

.

The mafia only wants this if they think that there are 2 culties left. Otherwise they will want to keep the CR alive as the final day's mislynch.

Lynch C, Nightkill C

: Town wins. But mafia won't do this.

Won't happen

.

Do all your scenarios actually assume that the mafia and cult are somehow intertwined? 0.o

Lynch C, Nightkill P

: Mafia wins or everyone loses. Only mafia wants this, so...

Won't happen

.

Why would this not happen?

BM

[Battle Mage]

Yeh but, as a claimed Doc that wouldnt have looked very good now would it?

Too easy to refute ("Oh I was WIFOMing with the scum and they called the bluff")

it would still put you under some pressure at the time. But, dude, if you seriously want to continue this ridiculous charade, please tell me why else the mafia would NK GW?

You think we have another Vig??

Goddamn I keep forgetting.

lol

Oman: A nurse fake claiming doc, I'm not sure I see the point of that.

I had "protection" from both sides. Being powerless (essentially) means I wasn't afraid of getting NKed, my death could even confirm a doctor later. I also wasn't afraid of the cult, so it was game on for me, playing fearlessly.

That was Dahen not me, who made that comment. -.-

My role PM says (unfortunatly this is from memory, because I just cleared my inbox and accientally didn't save a few role PMs) If a doctor dies, you will take their powers/will become a doctor.

If

A

Doctor dies?? you didnt think that was a tad odd? I'm not buying that.

A few things I looked for ASAP was: Did it specifically say there was a doctor in the game? No. Did it specifically say there would be only one doctor in the game? No.

I figured Dahen was the doc.

sounds like Xtoxm might be right about your gambit here...

BM

[dahen]

I'm not sure I need to argue with you, but here we go anyway:

Lynch M: Triple loss, so no-one wants that. Cult knows who is mafia and should prevent this from happening. Won't happen.

this is wrong. Firstly, lynching Mafia in this case would not be an automatic loss.

With the info I have, it's a guaranteed triple loss.

Lynch P, Nightkill P: Cult wins. But mafia won't do this. Won't happen.

this is wrong too. Mafia could well do that, on the grounds that they think there is only 1 cult left, as opposed to 2.

I don't think so. The mafia must target a cult, since he isn't sure. And there is no "they". It's one mafia guy left.

Do all your scenarios actually assume that the mafia and cult are somehow intertwined? 0.o

No, but all my scenarios are based on the fact that mafia and cult believes me and Xtoxm to be power roles.

Lynch C, Nightkill P: Mafia wins or everyone loses. Only mafia wants this, so... Won't happen.

Why would this not happen?

Hmm... thanks for finding a mistake. This can actually happen. Two cults left and one lynched today hands the game to mafia. But since town can't win in that scenario anyway, it's not much to feel bad about.

[Xtoxm]

I'm just about ready to lynch Norinel, I think.

dahen, what are your opinions on who CR is?

If there are 2 cult left it doesn't look like we can win.

Claim if you wish.

Bear in mind, if you don't claim you will be the NK (assuming we don't lynch scum) as you might be a doc, and they know i'm not. So decide what's best.

[Norinel]

To clarify: I can detect mafia or cult, and I only question my sanity because not being guaranteed sane was explicitly mentioned in my PM and BM has been behaving ridiculously. But if we have to assume BM's townie to have a chance at winning, I could be sane after all.

Do I really need to go over why my claim is consistent with my behavior all game? I've said it once, so I'll say it again: Every argument raised in thread about me being CR (Or any sort of scum, really) is terrible. I've addressed every single one as it's come up, and nobody's been able to deal with my refutations, other than PP, who just decided that my playstyle is scummy, and BM, who just ignores the logic and keeps saying I'm CR.

In the case where there's a majority town, I think BM or dahen are most likely to be telling the truth, so Oman'd be a good lynch regardless. The nurse claim is too desparate a play, really.

[Battle Mage]

I'm not sure I need to argue with you, but here we go anyway:

Lynch M: Triple loss, so no-one wants that. Cult knows who is mafia and should prevent this from happening. Won't happen.

this is wrong. Firstly, lynching Mafia in this case would not be an automatic loss.

With the info I have, it's a guaranteed triple loss.

Ohhh. I see ya, hansel.

Lynch P, Nightkill P: Cult wins. But mafia won't do this. Won't happen.

this is wrong too. Mafia could well do that, on the grounds that they think there is only 1 cult left, as opposed to 2.

I don't think so. The mafia must target a cult, since he isn't sure. And there is no "they". It's one mafia guy left.

I disagree, but its only speculation really.

Do all your scenarios actually assume that the mafia and cult are somehow intertwined? 0.o

No, but all my scenarios are based on the fact that mafia and cult believes me and Xtoxm to be power roles.

yeh i was wondering when someone would point out that all these scenarios carry the pretty major assumption of you being protown.

BM

[Battle Mage]

To clarify: I can detect mafia or cult, and I only question my sanity because not being guaranteed sane was explicitly mentioned in my PM and BM has been behaving ridiculously.

By 'behaving ridiculously' you mean 'thinks i'm scum' right?

But if we have to assume BM's townie to have a chance at winning, I could be sane after all.

Wow you really do change with the wind eh...

BM

[Xtoxm]

To clarify: I can detect mafia or cult

So you're saying Oman and dahen are the scum.

[Oman]

If A Doctor dies?? you didnt think that was a tad odd? I'm not buying that.

That was my point. I felt the role PM was sufficently vague to mean there was not a real doctor or several of them (Shrek Mafia was about several Docs and I was in that one).

So Norinel is claiming that me and dahen are scum...how interesting.

I like dahen for town about now.

Vote Norinel

Not to mention we're really the only lynches and I won't advocate my own lynch.

[dahen]

In the case where there's a majority town, I think BM or dahen are most likely to be telling the truth

This is enough for me to vote you. Are you even trying to think as a pro-town player? If you, me and BM are pro-town, that leaves Oman as Mafia or CR, but who is the other bad guy? Our two shot vig Xtoxm? Is that what you believe? I'd like you answer this and your reasoning along the way for the people you've investigated. Thank you.

[Norinel]

There's a difference between "or" and "and". Here, it's an exclusive or- obviously, whichever of you and BM isn't telling the truth is the other scum. (And I suppose I omitted the implied "in addition to me and Xtox") If it weren't for the investigation result, I'd say it was almost certainly BM for reaching and overconfidence in Imat yesterday and me yesterday and today.

Night 1, I investigated Xtox mostly because the person he replaced wasn't active enough to get a good read, but Xtox was active enough to want to be able to trust (or not). Night 2 was BM because the cop claim could have just as easily been a townie gambit or a scum gambit, and counterclaiming in the former case could've been disasterous. Night 3 was PP because I thought even if she weren't scum to begin with (Which I was sort of suspecting before), there was a good chance she'd been recruited Night 2, since the PR claims would've drawn any doc protection and pretty much everyone other than me considered her obviously town.

[Xtoxm]

Don't think i've anything more to add, i'll leave this up to you dahen. If you want to lynch Norinel, go ahead and hammer after saying anything you want to.

[Norinel]

Heh. Now I realize what you're all missing. If you assume BM's townie, and lynch anyone but the recruiter (Me, for instance), BM gets recruited, and then we're back into those impossible scenarios. Which means that, even if BM's a townie now, he's playing to get recruited and win/tie with the cult. (Unless he honestly thinks I'm CR, which I do doubt)

The lack of a single coherent argument against me other than "I guess dahen and BM are town" is still kind of depressing. And being drug along until the endgame because I always wind up looking scummy is why I went on that hiatus in the first place...